vs
+165 -175
UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 30
Height 6' 2"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jamahal Hill
6.19 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.03 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jimmy Crute
4.15 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
4.39 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
2.0 Sub. Avg
Jamahal Hill
Moneyline
DraftKings +165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +250
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
DraftKings +700
Jimmy Crute
Moneyline
BetWay -175
KO/TKO
BetWay +300
Submission
FanDuel +260
Decision
FanDuel +500
Jamahal Hill - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 69 of 172 40% 70 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 102 of 181 56% 102 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 17 of 30 56% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 15 of 33 45% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 25 24% 6 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jamahal Hill 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 37 of 57 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 69 of 172 40% 47 of 142 7 of 12 15 of 18 68 of 170 0 of 1 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 102 of 181 56% 30 of 91 42 of 54 30 of 36 102 of 181 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 14 of 30 46% 2 of 17 3 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 17 of 30 56% 2 of 13 7 of 8 8 of 9 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 15 of 33 45% 10 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 35 42% 3 of 19 5 of 7 7 of 9 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 6 of 25 24% 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 2 6 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 29 51% 7 of 17 2 of 5 6 of 7 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 18 of 30 60% 8 of 17 6 of 7 4 of 6 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jamahal Hill 26 of 56 46% 21 of 49 2 of 4 3 of 3 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 37 of 57 64% 10 of 25 22 of 27 5 of 5 37 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Angelo picks Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his durability and power. He notes that Rountree went toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira and showed he belongs. He thinks Jamahal Hill has good footwork but may slow down, and that Rountree has more upside. He expects a fun fight and thinks Rountree can win if he pressures.

Mentions upside for fantasy; expects a fun fight.
"I'm going to pick Khalil Roundtree. I'm probably going to put him in my lineup because I think the upside is on his side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill as a plus money underdog, but he is very hesitant due to Hill's recent performances after a gruesome injury. He notes that if Hill were the same fighter who beat Glover Teixeira, he would be max betting him, but the Hill who fought Pereira and Prochazka looked bad. Brady worries about Hill's durability and whether the injury took something out of him. He ultimately picks Hill but says he's not sure if he wants to put money on him, predicting a late finish or decision.

plus money underdog, not sure if I want to put my money on him
"I'm going to go Jamal Hill. I'm going to take the dog here to get it done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Connor picks Rountree, emphasizing that Rountree is a much more consistent technician while Hill is a bad technician with poor footwork and defense, leaving him open to be picked apart. He notes that Hill's durability against Prochazka may not hold against a cleaner puncher like Rountree, and that Rountree's roteness gives him consistency similar to Pereira. He believes if Rountree can't finish early, Hill's pressure could turn the fight, but he still favors Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The host notes Rountree opened around -160 but has moved to -120 as money came in on Hill, and he agrees with that movement. He thinks this is a great stylistic matchup for Hill to batter Rountree from distance, counter strike effectively, and pull away in deep water, predicting a round three or four KO finish.

round 3 or 4 KO finish
"I think this is a great stylistic match up for Hill to batter round tree from distance, counter strike effectively and then start pulling away in deep water which is where I expect Jamal Hill to come through with either …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr., despite acknowledging Jamahal Hill's underrated skills. He believes Rountree's low kicks will be decisive, and notes Hill's predictable movement. He also cites Rountree's longer recovery time since his loss to Pereira compared to Hill's recent brutal loss to Prochazka. He predicts a leg kick TKO in round 2 or 3.

Rountree wins by TKO (leg kicks) in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Khil Roundree Jr. I think the low kicks are going to be really good for him. I think we're going to see a rare leg kick TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Zane picks Rountree based on the stark technical advantage he sees in 30 seconds of footage: Rountree is much cleaner as a striker with better footwork, power, speed, and a more varied arsenal. However, he acknowledges Hill's comfort in messiness and ability to up the intensity over five rounds, drawing a parallel to Diaz vs Edwards. He is hesitant because Hill's durability and scrapping mentality could turn the fight late, but he ultimately sticks with Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
TKO (punches) R3 3:01 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 2 97 of 165 58% 101 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Jamahal Hill 0 81 of 177 45% 84 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 1 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 23 of 64 35% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 22 of 49 44% 22 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamahal Hill 0 38 of 74 51% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 43 of 58 74% 47 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jamahal Hill 0 20 of 39 51% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 97 of 165 58% 73 of 132 19 of 23 5 of 10 71 of 129 10 of 13 16 of 23
Jamahal Hill 81 of 177 45% 55 of 145 24 of 29 2 of 3 68 of 158 13 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 32 of 58 55% 27 of 51 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 1
Jamahal Hill 23 of 64 35% 17 of 56 5 of 6 1 of 2 21 of 59 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 22 of 49 44% 12 of 33 9 of 12 1 of 4 22 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamahal Hill 38 of 74 51% 25 of 59 12 of 14 1 of 1 34 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 43 of 58 74% 34 of 48 7 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 29 6 of 7 16 of 22
Jamahal Hill 20 of 39 51% 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.

"I think Yuri pahaska wins I've completely 180 flipped here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.

Mentions that this is a 205-pound striking match and buyer beware, but no specific prop.
"I like Jamal Hill I think this is definitely a value play this week minus 130 around that range"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.

Odds: Hill opened +122, now -125; Procházka opened -136, now +112. Connor thinks Procházka should be the favorite.
"Yuri is gonna win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.

Daniel took Hill at +100 earlier and says the line should be closer to -150. He mentions that both fighters have knockout power but Hill's volume is key.
"I actually took Hill here at plus 100 um I thought that you know if I'm the book Nick I'm charging you chalk on both sides"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.

"my prediction is Jamal Hill via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.

finishes within 10 minutes
"I am going to have to lean with the power striking and pressure of prasa here if his durability holds up similar to what I said about darush in the previous fight he should be able to pressure Hill walk …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -270 as a parlay piece. Also mentions under 1.5 rounds at +130 as a possibility.
"my preferred way like as a parlay piece is like taking like the minus 270 fight doesn't go to decision and uh and using that as a parlay piece this week"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"You got to take your knee here. Yuri beats Jamal Hill."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
KO (punches) R1 3:14 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 1 24 of 30 80% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 1 24 of 30 80% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 24 of 30 80% 12 of 15 6 of 6 6 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 11 of 14
Jamahal Hill 12 of 22 54% 1 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 9 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 24 of 30 80% 12 of 15 6 of 6 6 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 11 of 14
Jamahal Hill 12 of 22 54% 1 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 9 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-130), Hill (+110)

Round 1
It may not have the blockbuster name like a Conor McGregor or Brock Lesnar type, but the headliner of UFC 300 is a legit matchup that promises action from start to finish. Pereira (9-2, 6-1 UFC) aims to make the first defense of his light heavyweight throne—a two-division champ at that—against a man in Hill (12-1, 1 NC; 6-1, 1 NC UFC) that never his belt in the cage. The rightful champion should emerge from this one, and they will have 25 minutes to punch one another’s lights out. Referee Herb Dean will try to stay away from any errant blows, and he brings them together to bump fists before the last fight of this storied event kicks off. It’s on with the show. Pereira whips a leg kick out to test the water, and Hill responds in kind. Pereira scores another, and Hill kicks him on the inside of the front leg. Pereira checks a low kick, and he skims one off the shin. Hill reaches out with a left hand, and Pereira measures a right. Pereira scores a loud body kick, and Hill darts in to land a solid right hand over the top. Hill turns his hips into low kicks from both sides, and Pereira chops back. Hill grabs Pereira’s wrist while they hand-fight with one another, and Hill prods out a front kick. Pereira gets in a hefty calf kick, and he jabs the body. Hill goes high with his shin, and Pereira blocks it in time. Hill digs a kick to the ribs, and he lances out two left hands. Pereira digs a right to the midsection, and he absorbs kicks on each side of his leg as he tries to check them all. Hill wraps a kick up to the body, and it bounces off the cop. Pereira waves Dean off and unloads a left hand that sends Hill crashing to the mat. Pereira smashes his fallen foe with otherworldly power, and he finishes the job with thunderous hammerfists. Hill completely goes out, and Dean leaps between them when recognizing “Sweet Dreams” is off in dreamland. “Poatan” stands back and motions to his handiwork, pointing at the unconscious Hill. Hill manages to sit up and come to, and he appears to ask Dean what happened as he stands up confused. Pereira’s coach, Glover Teixeira, awards the defending champion with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as they celebrate and embrace. Even the stoic Pereira cracks a smile. Ten wins into his MMA career, and Pereira has now won and lost the middleweight belt, and claimed and defended the light heavyweight throne. Pereira declares that he wishes to keep defending this belt, and he also expresses interest in competing at heavyweight—possibly in Rio de Janeiro in a few weeks. When taking photos with his team, Pereira dances a little and lets fly some of his more fun side. With that crushing knockout in the books, UFC 300 has reached its conclusion, and what an event it was. Several year-end awards will likely go to this memorable fight card, and if not, something truly spectacular will need to happen in the next eight months. If and when that happens, we will be there for it. We hope are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jamahal Hill R1 3:14 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira, citing his power and physicality. He notes Hill may be the better striker and Pereira gets hit a lot, but Hill's layoff and injury recovery are concerns. He mentions Hill looked out of shape recently and may not be fully prepared. He acknowledges it wouldn't surprise him if Hill wins.

"I think Alex Bea wins this fight but it would not surprise me if Jamal Hill landed those onws and we just watched Alex get pieced up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody acknowledges this is a flip-flop fight between Hill's volume and Pereira's power. He leans Pereira because he trusts Pereira's preparation and shape, while Hill is coming off a long layoff with an Achilles injury and doesn't appear to be in peak condition. Cody notes Hill has never been knocked down and has a cast iron chin, but Pereira's left hook is a constant threat. He also mentions Hill has zero takedowns in the UFC and Glover Teixeira is in Pereira's corner, providing familiarity. Ultimately, he goes with the power over volume, but admits it could go either way.

"I think I'm leaning Pereira because I want the guy that I know is going to come and put his best foot forward where Hill he's going to fight his hard out but if he's not at 100% if I …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Vreeland picks Jamahal Hill to win by knockout, citing Hill's superior power and speed, his ability to switch stances to negate Pereira's calf kicks, and his proven durability. He notes that Pereira gets hit often and has been knocked out before, while Hill has never been rocked on the feet. Vreeland also mentions Hill's ground game as a potential factor, but expects a standup war.

wins by KO/TKO
"I'm going and new sweet dreams Jamal Hill"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, citing that the line is great value. He notes that Pereira is a world-class kickboxer and that Hill's best kickboxing opponent might be Johnny Walker. He also mentions that Hill has been injured for over a year and may not be sharp. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be too much for Hill.

"I love the line here I'll take Paha at at such a low line he's just way more dangerous uh scarier fighter than than Hill"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Hill was not cleared to train until February, which is alarming. He also mentions that Hill seems convinced he can box with Pereira, but his past fights don't show that level of striking. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be the difference.

"I think he's gonna see the difference here the technical striking of Alex paa you know he got caught one time against isra AIS Anna but like when is paja looked bad boxing anybody else"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Pereira

Pereira is the technically better fighter. Hill is coming back too early from injury and took the fight for the big stage, which will cause bad decisions. Pereira's striking will take advantage and land the check left hook, putting Hill out within two or three rounds.

knockout within two or three rounds
"I think he puts Jamal Hill out within two or three rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, laying the chalk with Pereira. He notes the strange narrative of Hill immediately contacting Israel Adesanya for advice, which suggests short-notice preparation. Paul points out that throwing volume leaves you open for counters, and Pereira can take your head off at any point. He also mentions Hill has never been hurt or knocked down, so Pereira needs to land the money shot. Paul sees the fight as super competitive but favors Pereira's power and preparation.

"I'm with you, I'm laying the chalk with Alex Pereira but I wouldn't be shocked obviously either way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win, citing Hill's defensive flaws and long layoff after an Achilles injury. He notes Hill's right hand drops and that Pereira's left hook and low kicks will be key. He worries about Hill's momentum and believes Pereira can find the knockout.

"Alex Pereira is going to win."
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 75 of 160 46% 108 of 196 2 of 17 11% 0 0 3:26
Glover Teixeira 0 232 of 402 57% 248 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 27 44% 14 of 29 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:03
Glover Teixeira 0 46 of 85 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 21 of 44 47% 28 of 52 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:16
Glover Teixeira 0 51 of 91 56% 52 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Jamahal Hill 0 17 of 30 56% 18 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:13
Glover Teixeira 0 44 of 82 53% 51 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
4 Jamahal Hill 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Glover Teixeira 0 79 of 120 65% 79 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
5 Jamahal Hill 0 7 of 18 38% 30 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:44
Glover Teixeira 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 75 of 160 46% 52 of 136 19 of 20 4 of 4 65 of 145 5 of 6 5 of 9
Glover Teixeira 232 of 402 57% 180 of 343 42 of 49 10 of 10 188 of 347 18 of 21 26 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 46 of 85 54% 27 of 65 13 of 14 6 of 6 42 of 81 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 21 of 44 47% 15 of 38 4 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 37 4 of 4 2 of 3
Glover Teixeira 51 of 91 56% 38 of 77 9 of 10 4 of 4 49 of 87 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 17 of 30 56% 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 44 of 82 53% 41 of 76 3 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 56 1 of 1 19 of 25
4 Jamahal Hill 18 of 41 43% 12 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 79 of 120 65% 65 of 104 14 of 16 0 of 0 68 of 108 11 of 12 0 of 0
5 Jamahal Hill 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 6
Glover Teixeira 12 of 24 50% 9 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 9
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Big Brady picks the 43-year-old Teixeira despite age concerns, noting he has been counted out before and keeps winning. He highlights Teixeira's durability, having not been knocked out since 2017, and his excellent grappling and ground and pound. He questions Hill's takedown defense, as he was taken down six times by Thiago Santos. He thinks Teixeira can get takedowns and finish, but has low confidence due to Hill's power. He predicts a finish.

"I'm gonna pick the 43 year old here I'm going to take over the share to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill but admits he is not super confident. He thinks Hill is one of the best strikers in the division with power and calmness, and believes Hill will clip Glover in the later rounds after giving up early rounds. He acknowledges Glover's massive grappling advantage and Hill's poor takedown defense, but thinks Hill's youth and striking will prevail. He suggests live betting Glover after losing early rounds.

suggests live betting Glover after losing early rounds; mentions total set at 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds at +180, Glover's takedowns at 2.5 on PrizePicks, Hill's strikes at 40.5
"I'm gonna take Jamal hell but what I will admit is that if you were gonna bet Glover just like you said maybe better while the fight's going on maybe hit that live bet"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Connor picks Jamahal Hill, citing youth, power, and the likelihood that Glover gets hurt and finished early. He compares it to the Anthony Johnson loss where Glover was iced in 13 seconds. Connor admits Glover is better everywhere but feels Hill's speed and one-two power could end it quickly. He acknowledges that if the fight goes past one round, Glover likely wins.

Connor mentions Hill's odds at -133 but does not place a bet.
"I'm gonna pick Jamal Hill. The youth, the power, Glover getting hurt all the time, his ability to just stick on a one two and do it really fast and early."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Paul picks Glover Teixeira but is very cautious, admitting bias because he loves Glover. He notes Glover's massive grappling advantage and great wrestling, but acknowledges he is long in the tooth and gives up speed. He sees arguments for both sides and is not betting pre-fight, but might bet live if things go well. He thinks Glover can win via grappling and top control.

not betting pre-fight, might bet live; mentions Glover's takedowns
"I'm not gonna bet it because we are closer to a pickum I see the arguments for both sides I'm picking Glover maybe because I'm a little bit biased and love the guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

The Guru picks Teixeira as an underdog. He rewatched Hill vs Santos and noted Santos took Hill down six times, and Hill gave up bad positions. Teixeira's grappling is superior, and he stayed in shape after a December fight was canceled. The Guru criticizes Hill's physique, saying he had a 'huge belly' in fight announcement videos. He predicts Teixeira will find a rear-naked choke in the second or third round, or possibly after rocking Hill on the feet.

submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna go with Glover to Shara here he has been made an underdog in this matchup so I have to pick Clover to Shara over Jamal Hill"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Zane picks Glover Teixeira, arguing that Glover is a much better fighter overall—better striker, wrestler, and grappler. He notes that Jamahal Hill has poor defense, walks in straight lines, and has never faced a grappler of Glover's caliber. Zane believes Glover's improved boxing and ability to survive being hurt will carry him to victory, especially if the fight goes past the first round.

Glover Teixeira opened at +130, dropped to +100, now +110; Hill opened at -150, now -133. Zane mentions Glover's odds movement but does not place a bet.
"I'm for sure picking Glover Teixeira. I think really if he just gets much much older overnight than he already is uh or Jamal Hill gets very lucky and lands a Rumble Johnson style uppercut or something."
WIN vs Thiago Santos
TKO (punches and elbows) R4 2:31 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 53 of 94 56% 56 of 98 6 of 20 30% 0 0 5:54
Thiago Santos 0 89 of 152 58% 130 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 10 of 18 55% 11 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 30 30% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:41
Thiago Santos 0 31 of 52 59% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 11 72% 10 of 14 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:50
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 11 81% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
4 Jamahal Hill 0 19 of 27 70% 19 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 40 of 59 67% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 53 of 94 56% 28 of 66 13 of 16 12 of 12 43 of 82 8 of 9 2 of 3
Thiago Santos 89 of 152 58% 68 of 131 12 of 12 9 of 9 52 of 107 19 of 21 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 10 of 18 55% 1 of 8 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 9 of 30 30% 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 16 of 38 42% 9 of 29 5 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 1
Thiago Santos 31 of 52 59% 19 of 40 5 of 5 7 of 7 28 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 8 of 11 72% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 3 of 3 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 7 of 7 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 19 of 27 70% 12 of 20 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 40 of 59 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 29 5 of 6 18 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.

"given what tiago santos has become we got to go with jamal hill here right"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.

second or third round knockout prediction
"i like jamal hill i'd like to help you win by knockout i'll say like second or third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by late stoppage (rounds 4-5) or decision
"I got Hill as well... I'm just not on team Thiago Santos... he's a lot older... since he's come back has just been less than kind."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.

Parlayed with Michał Oleksiejczuk at -158 to win 2 units
"I gotta go with Jamal Hill here so I took Jamal Hill minus 260 and I parlayed him with... Mija Oleg Zach"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by decision or late stoppage (rounds 4-5)
"I think Jamahal Hill is a little bit too fast for Thiago Santos... Hill will be the pick don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go jamal hill... i'm gonna see jamal hill pressuring him down walking him down landing some good combos and then maybe just like landing a good straight one two right on thiago santos against the cage at the …"
WIN vs Johnny Walker
KO (punch) R1 2:55 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Johnny Walker 1 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Johnny Walker 1 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 3 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 3 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker but is hesitant, noting that Walker's last fight against Thiago Santos was too controlled and he lost his identity. He believes Walker needs to return to his unorthodox, high-volume style to win, otherwise Jamahal Hill will piece him up. Angelo thinks the disappointing loss may motivate Walker to revert to his natural style.

"i do like johnny walker here i feel like that last fight was such a big disappointing loss to him that he's going to come out here and he's going to try to be who he was"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, citing his high output, durability, and cardio. He notes Walker's striking defense is poor and his chin is a concern. He believes Walker's only path is to be wild, but Hill can handle it. He predicts Hill wins by second round knockout.

win by second round knockout
"give me jamal hill to win I'll take him to win my second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill based on Hill's superior hands and power, noting that Johnny Walker has a questionable chin and has been knocked out quickly in the past. He highlights Hill's sharp jab and right hand, and his legitimate KO victories over durable opponents like Jimmy Crute and Alvin St. Pruitt. Cody also points out that Walker's explosiveness has been diminished since training with John Kavanagh, and that Walker's cardio and takedown defense are poor. He believes Hill can keep the fight standing and eventually clip Walker.

"just feel like yamaha hill's got the better hands he's gonna clip him at some point and i just don't love johnny walker's ability to take a punch"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi is confident in Jamahal Hill, citing his volume, body work, and discipline. He notes that Hill has the output of a smaller fighter but at 6'4" with an 80-inch reach, and that his only loss came from overconfidence on the ground, which Walker won't exploit. Levi believes Hill will knock out Walker, likely in the first round, and that Walker hasn't looked the same since the Corey Anderson fight.

under 1.5 rounds mentioned as dog money, but not explicitly bet; Hill by KO in first round predicted
"i think he comes out here and knocks out johnny walker... i'm going first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Hill is the more active striker and will pressure Walker, who tends to be hesitant. Hill's power and sniping ability should find Walker's chin. Walker has knockout power too, but Hill is the more likely finisher. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play, as Hill should get the KO early. Hill by KO at -130 and round props are also attractive.

under 2.5 rounds (-175), Hill by KO (-130), Hill round 1 (+200), Hill round 2 (+500), Hill by KO in rounds 1-3 (+115)
"i think i took an alternate under here under two and a half rounds at minus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that the fight comes down to volume and durability. He notes that Walker is a low-volume striker (around 50 significant strikes per fight) while Hill has shown high output, landing over 100 significant strikes in a fight. Paul also mentions that Walker's recent performances have been boring and ineffective, and that Hill hasn't been rocked in his fights. He is confident in Hill but doesn't love the -250 price.

"i think it really comes down to volume and one guy over the course of three rounds is probably going to land you know 70 significant strikes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Johnny Walker's range control and chin, believing Hill's pressure and power will be too much. He predicts Hill will march Walker down, land combinations, and put him away with a left hook as Walker throws a front kick. He notes Hill's confidence and momentum from his last win, and that Walker has a chin problem.

first round ko (left hook)
"i'm gonna go with jamal hill in the main event i'm going to go with jamal hill by first round ko in the main event"
WIN vs Jimmy Crute
KO (punches) R1 0:48 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Over 1.5 rounds bet (1 unit)
"i like jimmy to win i see a good amount of takedowns here so i actually like the 9 200 bucks"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

by submission
"give me jimmy crew to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

"i gotta think that hill edges them out um again this is a plus 140 hill this is a close fight this is the fight that i would label probably as a dogger pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

"I think jamal pieces him up with way too much volume and length and fluidity and speed on the fee so give me jamal hill to win a decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

"wrestle jimmy and you'll get the win just like dan said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Crute by submission +250
"i think it's the crew by submission honestly croot submission plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

"i'm gonna lean towards hill here i think um if he does get taken to the ground his grappling looked good enough or at least his heart looked good enough that he wasn't gonna tap"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.

first round kimura
"i'm gonna go with jimmy croots by first round kimura"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 1:59 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 23 of 25 92% 43 of 47 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:03
Jamahal Hill 0 1 of 8 12% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 23 of 25 92% 43 of 47 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:03
Jamahal Hill 0 1 of 8 12% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 23 of 25 92% 18 of 20 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 18
Jamahal Hill 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 23 of 25 92% 18 of 20 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 18
Jamahal Hill 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive striking advantage, volume, and cardio. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous submission game but believes Hill's takedown defense and get-up ability will keep the fight standing. He warns against putting Hill in parlays due to the submission threat.

Hill by KO, round 1
"i'll take hill i'll take hill to knock out paul craig in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody is confident in Hill, noting his striking, reach, and power. He thinks Hill will stuff Craig's takedowns and knock him out, likely inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and Hill by knockout. He also mentions Craig's weak chin and the level of competition Craig has faced.

under 1.5 rounds (+100), Hill by knockout (-165)
"i got hill i got hill by knockout i also like the under one and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to knock out Paul Craig, praising Hill's output and technique. He notes that Hill has a high-volume striking style and has shown good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's chin-up tendency when pressured will be exploited. He believes Hill is a future contender and will make a statement.

by knockout
"i think saturday night uh he's going to make a big statement i think he's going to knock out paul craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Jamahal Hill

Hill has a massive striking advantage with diverse attacks, including a vicious body kick. Craig's only path is to get the fight to the ground, but Hill's takedown defense and submission defense should keep it standing. Hill will land devastating shots and likely knock Craig out in the first or second round.

Hill by KO/TKO (first or second round)
"I think that Jamal Hill will go out there and showcase some good takedown defense... he will be able to land the bigger and much better shots on the feet and I think ultimately he'll be able to put down …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul agrees Hill is a confident pick. He notes Hill's size, southpaw stance, and power, and thinks he will finish Craig inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and plans to parlay Hill with Edwards.

under 1.5 rounds (+100)
"jamal hill is the pick i don't love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill, calling it an obvious prediction. He criticizes Paul Craig's wins over an aged Shogun Rua and notes Hill's superior striking, takedown defense, and head movement. He predicts a first-round KO via straight shot, citing Hill's reach and youth.

first round ko
"i'm going with jimmy whole hill i think it's a very very obvious prediction"
Jimmy Crute - Fight History
WIN vs Ivan Erslan
Submission R1 3:19 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 2 of 4 50% 1 1 2:08
Ivan Erslan 0 10 of 14 71% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 2 of 4 50% 1 1 2:08
Ivan Erslan 0 10 of 14 71% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 12 of 16 75% 3 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 4
Ivan Erslan 10 of 14 71% 9 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 12 of 16 75% 3 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 4
Ivan Erslan 10 of 14 71% 9 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan, believing Crute is the better fighter everywhere except one-punch knockout power. He notes Crute's wrestling and submissions, and that Erslan is knockout-or-bust. He is surprised by the line tightening and attributes it to Crute's mullet, not his skills. He may bet on Crute if the line continues to collapse.

May bet on Crute if line continues to tighten.
"Jimmy Croo should win this fight. I am actually surprised by the line tightening. Again, people see the haircut and they're like, 'Nah, dude. a grown man. A grown [ __ ] man. No, not doing that.' That is why …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Big Brady picks Ivan Erslan to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Crute's poor striking defense and worries about his chin. He notes Erslan has solid power and striking, and if Crute refuses to grapple, Erslan can knock him out. He acknowledges Crute could get a submission if he gets top position.

first round KO
"I'm going to take Erslon here. I'll say Erslon wins this fight by first round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Cody picks Crute but acknowledges his inconsistency and durability issues. He believes Crute's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to take down Erslan, who is rudimentary and low-output. He worries about Crute's chin and tendency to tire, but thinks Erslan won't push a pace to exploit that.

"I just think better everywhere. His wrestling is good enough that he should be able to take Urslon down"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute on the slim hope that his submission grappling will be the difference if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges that both fighters are first-round specialists, but Crute has a more complete game with submission wins. Connor is hesitant because Crute's cardio and tendency to fall apart are major concerns, but he thinks Crute's grappling could catch Erslan off guard.

"I'll take Jimmy Crute. Why not on the slim thought that his submission grappling game will be the difference maker?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

James picks the underdog Ivan Erslan, believing he is the better boxer with superior cardio. He criticizes Jimmy Crute's recent performance, calling him overrated and noting his wrestling is overrated and his takedowns are poor. He also mentions Crute's mental health issues and past damage as concerns. James thinks Erslan can defend takedowns and outwork Crute on the feet, making him a live dog at +200.

"I'm actually going to pick the underdog in this fight, boys. Ivan Ursland is a live dog here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

James picks Ivan Erslan as an underdog, citing Crute's tendency to fade after round one and Erslan's superior cardio and boxing. He notes Erslan has been competitive in his UFC losses and that the line was favorable at +200 when he bet. He believes Erslan can win by outworking Crute in later rounds.

"I'm actually picking the underdog here. I'm actually picking Ivan Urseland here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The host notes Crute finally won after five years and thinks this is a perfect matchup for him to gain momentum. He expects Crute to use his reckless striking to set up a takedown and then snatch a submission.

win by submission
"Crude finally picking up a win in his first win in five years last time around and I think this is a perfect match up for him to start gaining some momentum. Look for him to utilize his reckless and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The Guru picks Jimmy Crute, despite his past struggles, because he sees no talent in Ivan Erslan. He believes Crute's grappling will be the difference, allowing him to take Erslan down and secure a submission in round one or two.

submission in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go Jimmy Crew."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Zane picks Erslan, believing that Erslan's ability to stay on his feet and throw punches later in the fight will be key. He notes that Crute tends to fall apart after the first round, often flopping to his back in desperation. Zane thinks Erslan is more likely to survive the early onslaught and then outwork Crute in the later rounds, as Crute's cardio and composure are questionable.

"I think I'm gonna take Urslan. Sure, just take him away from me."
Submission R1 4:42 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.

"I'm going to pick Jimmy here. The gap on the ground is bigger than the gap on the feet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.

Crute by first round submission
"I think Croo is going to win this fight. I'll take Croo to win this fight by first round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.

submission
"I think Groot will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot on Prao to drop him and then follow up with the submission to get the victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Jimmy Crute, despite some hesitation. He criticizes Crute's footwork, saying he fights like he's stepping on Legos, and notes that Crute has problems with low kicks, as seen against Anthony Smith. Prachnio is described as a slick striker with good low kicks, and the Guru believes he will not get outmuscled on the ground. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Crute submitting him, but ultimately goes with Prachnio based on striking superiority.

"I'm going with Martin Patchio, man."
Draw vs Rodolfo Bellato
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 1 106 of 209 50% 139 of 247 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 89 of 141 63% 95 of 148 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 1 27 of 47 57% 59 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 1 of 5 20% 4 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jimmy Crute 0 46 of 95 48% 46 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Bellato 0 48 of 70 68% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jimmy Crute 0 33 of 67 49% 34 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Bellato 0 40 of 66 60% 43 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 106 of 209 50% 93 of 190 8 of 10 5 of 9 77 of 170 11 of 13 18 of 26
Rodolfo Bellato 89 of 141 63% 36 of 76 24 of 29 29 of 36 85 of 136 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 27 of 47 57% 23 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 18 3 of 3 18 of 26
Rodolfo Bellato 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jimmy Crute 46 of 95 48% 40 of 85 3 of 4 3 of 6 39 of 86 7 of 9 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 48 of 70 68% 18 of 35 14 of 16 16 of 19 44 of 65 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jimmy Crute 33 of 67 49% 30 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0 32 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 40 of 66 60% 18 of 38 9 of 11 13 of 17 40 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Jimmy Crute
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-162), Crute (+136)

Round 1
After a few losses and a short-lived retirement announcement, Australia’s own Crute (12-4-1, 4-4-1 UFC) is back and ready to lift his promotional record above .500. He draws a tough rising test as he tries to get his hand raised for the first time since 2020, with the surging Bellato (12-2, 1-0 UFC) ready for action. The light heavyweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Marc Goddard, who minds the particulars for as long as this match lasts. Gloves are touched, and Bellato takes the center of the cage. Crute tosses out a few half-hearted low kicks and takes a punch square in the chest while setting up. A heavier low kick is countered by a Bellato scooping left hook, and Crute gives him something to think about with a spin kick to the ribs. Bellato wraps up his opponent and wrangles him to the mat, only to fall on his back in a failed sacrifice throw. Crute fights off the scramble and find himself in half guard, and he shifts to side control. Bellato turns to his stomach in an effort to escape, and Crute wraps up a brabo choke to twist Bellato to his back again. Crute jams down heavy punches, and Bellato throws his legs up for any submission or trap he can find. Crute pushes through an upkick to drive down more punishment, and two big elbows from the Aussie get the attention of “Trator.” Crute stays a step ahead of the Brazilian, landing big ground-and-pound when not staying tightly pressed on his opponent to keep him trapped. Bellato turns and sweeps his man, but Crute is right there in front of him ready to bust him in the face. Bellato shakes it off, but Crute is a man on a mission and slugs the Brazilian in the face with a nasty right hand. Bellato falls over, and Crute pounces in hopes of drumming him out. The finish does not materialize, and Bellato survives to the second round with a bit of blood drawn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Crute
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Crute
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Crute

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going in the second round, and Crute feels the momentum behind him and puts it on Bellato. Crute walks Bellato down, smashing him in the face and drawing some swelling beneath his left eye. Bellato’s counters are effective but his hands are lower, his pace waning and his power sapping. The Brazilian kicks the front leg a few times, and Crute splits the guard with a one-two. Crute shoots for a takedown, Bellato gets out of it, and “The Brute” tries a second time to no effect. When he cannot get the fight down, Crute elects to spin kick Bellato in the ribs. Both men stand in the pocket and trade, not the best strategy for light heavyweights that can crack, but Bellato is getting his chances to land. Bellato drives three punches through the raised guard, and he bounces back from a long strike to blast Crute in the face with a short but powerful right hook. Crute is showing signs of fatigue as well, but he surges into action shortly thereafter to drill Bellato with several uppercuts from close range. Bellato backs him off with an overhand right, and he no-sells a body shot so he can bash “The Brute” in the face with his fists. Crute fires off one-twos that bloody up Bellato’s nose, and both men might show fatigue but are still eager and willing to trade. Crute takes two leg kicks, the second nearly stripping him of his balance. Rather than attack the leg, Bellato spins with a failed wheel kick. Crute answers him with a wheel kick that also does not land, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Crute

Round 3
After 10 minutes of combat, both men are bloodied and bruised, figuratively and literally. Bellato swings for the bleachers, and he clips Crute with every third or four strike he manages to get off. Bellato chews up the front leg with kicks, and Crute limps around gingerly. A takedown shot from Crute strips Bellato off his feet, only for Bellato to climb back up undeterred. Bellato slaps at the calf again, takes a one-two on the chin and just misses a whizzing back fist. Crute tries to check a low kick, and the two get in a short but torrid brawl. Crute lunges his way into attack, and Bellato backs him away with counters. A right hand from Crute stings his man for the umpteenth time, and Bellato’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he ducks another big strike to hit a clean takedown. Crute gets to his hands and feet when he turns over, and Bellato wrenches him back down. Crute slowly crawls in hopes of standing, and Bellato lets him back up so they can bang it out with about a minute and 45 seconds to go. Crute sneaks a head kick behind a left hand, and Bellato has his guard up in time for both strikes. The Brazilian chops at the front calf, and Crute keeps a stiff upper lip and steps in to knee Bellato in the face. A right-to-head-kick combo from Crute ricochets off the guard again, but a one-two after it lands flush. Bellato keeps working the front leg over with kicks any time he can find an opening, and he keeps Crute honest by swinging with everything he has left. Crute tanks the heavy stuff, absorbs a flush knee and sticks his tongue out. Crute slaps Bellato in the face with an open palm, and the back-and-forth scrap comes to an end. It could go either way, and a draw could be in play.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-28 Bellato)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (28-28)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-27 Crute)

The Official Result
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a Majority Draw (29-27, 28-28, 28-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady is taking a chance on Jimmy Crute, who is returning from retirement. He acknowledges Crute's poor fight IQ and chin issues but believes Crute is more skilled than Bellato. He notes that Bellato has a questionable chin and was nearly finished by Ehor Pia. Brady predicts Crute will win by first-round knockout, similar to his win over Modestas Bukauskas.

"I'm going to take crout here I'm going to take Roo to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute, believing he is the better fighter and can knock Bellato out. He thinks Bellato is slow and hittable. However, he acknowledges Crute's thoughtlessness and tendency to latch onto one idea. He notes that if Bellato survives the first round, Crute might fade. But he sticks with Crute, calling it a well-booked fight for him.

"I'm sticking with Crute, but it's a good fight. It's a well-booked fight for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses Jimmy Crute's return after a religious conversion, wondering if it will reinvigorate him or soften him like Rory McDonald. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is a tough, aggressive fighter who will make Crute fight. However, he does not pick a winner, only expressing curiosity about which version of Crute shows up.

"It'll be really interesting to see which of the two Jimmy crew performs like is he going to be reinvigorated or is he going to kind of look like a ghost of his former self"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The host does not believe in Crute enough to pick the upset. Bellato will dictate the pace with his striking, stop Crute's takedowns, and eventually slow him down and beat him. The pick is for Bellato to win by knockout.

knockout
"I do not believe in crud enough to make me believe he can pull off the upset here I think we'll see B to dictate the pace with his striking eventually stopping the takedowns of crout and eventually slowing him …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane picks Bellato, citing momentum and Crute's mental state. He notes that Crute is on a three-fight losing streak and seems dispirited. Bellato is imposing, aggressive, and doesn't lose his cool. Zane thinks if Crute doesn't finish Bellato early, Bellato will wear him down. He acknowledges Crute could knock Bellato out in the first round, but doubts Crute's confidence.

"I'm going to pick Bellato here. And I think it's largely for momentum reasons."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:55 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alonzo Menifield 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:12
Jimmy Crute 0 21 of 36 58% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alonzo Menifield 0 25 of 37 67% 31 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:01
Jimmy Crute 0 11 of 16 68% 15 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
2 Alonzo Menifield 0 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Jimmy Crute 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alonzo Menifield 26 of 53 49% 5 of 30 19 of 20 2 of 3 6 of 31 20 of 22 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 21 of 36 58% 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alonzo Menifield 25 of 37 67% 4 of 14 19 of 20 2 of 3 5 of 15 20 of 22 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 11 of 16 68% 8 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alonzo Menifield 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Angelo picks Menifield but calls it a 50/50 fight and advises against betting. He notes Menifield's power and takedown defense, and that Crute was surprised by his power in the first fight. He thinks Crute will be hesitant due to being dropped twice, but acknowledges Crute could win if he avoids the power and gets takedowns. He avoids this fight with money.

Avoiding betting on this fight
"personally I'm avoiding this fight with money I'm not gonna spend money on this fight there are much better spots on this card than this fight but I am going to pick Alonzo to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Big Brady picks Alonzo Menifield to win by first-round knockout. He notes that in their first fight, Menifield had success in the first round, hurting Crute badly, but Crute survived due to weak ground and pound and Menifield gassing. He believes Menifield will land a big shot and knock out Crute, especially given Crute's poor striking defense (45%) and low fight IQ. He cautions that if Mark Goddard is the referee, the fight might not be stopped early.

first round knockout
"I'll take menifield first round knockout as long as Mark Goddard is not the referee"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Cody leans toward Menifield but says the price is accurate as a pick'em. He notes Menifield was winning the first fight until a point deduction led to a draw. He thinks Menifield's power and explosiveness are threats. He is not betting the fight.

"I'll still side with menifield but I'm not battling it I think the fight the the price is completely 100 accurate"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Connor picks Menifield because he did so much damage to Crute in their first fight that Crute may not survive that again. Crute's hyper-aggressive approach forces him to walk into fire, and Menifield's power is a constant threat. However, Menifield's cardio and grappling are weaknesses, but Crute's lack of defense makes Menifield the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I have to pick Menafield, but it's a whole various fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Daniel Levi picks Crute, arguing that there is a market overcorrection after their draw. He notes that Crute took Menifield down six times in their first fight and believes that with adjustments, Crute can control the fight on the ground. Levi points out that Menifield now trains with Pat Berry, which may improve his striking but likely not his takedown defense. He expects Crute to be more measured this time, using top control and ground-and-pound to secure a win. Levi bet Crute at minus-104 and is confident in the pick.

Bet at -104, now -125
"I took Jimmy The Brute crew here uh at minus like 104 a few days ago."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)

James does not make a clear pick on the winner, calling the fight too volatile to bet. He sees value on Crute by decision at +600, as he thinks Crute can win via wrestling and decision, but he is not confident enough to bet it. He breaks down the fight: Menifield's win equity is heavily in the KO, while Crute has multiple paths (decision, submission, KO). He caps Crute around -140 but the line at -110 is not enough edge given the volatility.

Jimmy Crute by decision at +600 (considered, not played)
"it's a land mine you kind of just want to pass if you're betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Crute has a grappling advantage and can take Menifield down and control him on the ground. Menifield has knockout power but slows down as fights progress. Crute will be methodical, avoid getting clipped, and grind out a decision victory. The over 2.5 rounds is also a good play.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me Jimmy crude by decision but the over two and a half is looking kind of swanky at that plus 200 line give me a nibble on that as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Paul picks Crute, noting he is younger and coming off a long layoff with ring rust now gone. He thinks Crute's takedowns will be effective and Menifield's cardio is poor. He expects Crute to make adjustments and win by grinding him down. He mentions Menifield's tendency to fade.

Crute by decision, over 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Jimmy crude I'm wearing Jimmy Cruz last time and found I thought I was very thankful to get out of that with the draw"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute, changing his initial opinion after rewatching the first fight. He believes Crute's early guillotine attempt cost him dominant position, and if he stays patient and focuses on positional control, he can win. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first round.

wins by rear-naked choke in the first round
"I'm going to call a real naked choke for Jimmy crew at the end of the first"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Zane picks Menifield because he is a better athlete and can absolutely wreck Crute with a few punches, as he did in their first fight. Crute is reckless and aggressive but not durable, and Menifield's power and violence should overwhelm him again. However, Menifield's poor cardio and grappling control make it a volatile fight, but Crute has no safe places in his game.

Crute opened at -103, currently -116; Menifield opened at -107, currently +105. Zane questions why Crute is the favorite.
"I got to pick Menafield."
Draw (majority) (29–27, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 31 of 62 50% 62 of 103 6 of 12 50% 3 0 7:55
Alonzo Menifield 2 56 of 83 67% 99 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 10 of 26 38% 13 of 29 4 of 5 80% 1 0 2:31
Alonzo Menifield 1 23 of 28 82% 36 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
2 Jimmy Crute 0 10 of 23 43% 20 of 37 1 of 3 33% 2 0 1:30
Alonzo Menifield 1 25 of 38 65% 35 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
3 Jimmy Crute 0 11 of 13 84% 29 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:54
Alonzo Menifield 0 8 of 17 47% 28 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 31 of 62 50% 27 of 58 2 of 2 2 of 2 23 of 54 5 of 5 3 of 3
Alonzo Menifield 56 of 83 67% 53 of 80 1 of 1 2 of 2 42 of 67 4 of 4 10 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 10 of 26 38% 8 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 23 of 28 82% 22 of 27 0 of 0 1 of 1 13 of 17 1 of 1 9 of 10
2 Jimmy Crute 10 of 23 43% 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 25 of 38 65% 23 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 21 of 33 3 of 3 1 of 2
3 Jimmy Crute 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3
Alonzo Menifield 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Crute (-120), Menifield (+100)

Round 1
Sticking to the light heavyweight division, albeit with a contest that has immediate implications on the rankings, the UFC will run back a fight that ended by contentious majority draw in February. Surviving an early onslaught and the benefactor of a point deduction, Crute (12-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC) hopes to get back in the win column for the first time since 2020. Standing in his way once again will be the powerful Menifield (13-3-1, 6-3-1 UFC), who is aching to put Crute away in his second try. Whether he does or not, referee Mark Smith will be here for it. There is no ill will between the two combatants, and they bump fists before engaging. The two are cautious to engage in the early going, with Crute looking for his range with a front kick and a punch. When Crute kicks low, Menifield pierces the guard with a straight right hand. Menifield sits down on a low kick of his own, and he rails Crute with a one-two that sends him reeling. Crute scampers back upright after spinning around from the power punches, and he fakes a level change and drops his hands to encourage Menifield to come at him. Menifield does not engage, instead allowing Crute to jab him in the face. Menifield looks to go after another overhand right when Crute kicks him in the calf, and he misses the mark by a matter of inches. Menifield catches Crute with a right hand, stops a takedown in its tracks, and pushes his foe against the wall. Crute looks to trip him down, and Menifield is warned for grabbing the fence. Crute lines up a slew of knees to the body as the two jockey for position, and Crute grips a standing guillotine but cannot rope it around the neck before Menifield pulls it free. Menifield looks for a left hand from up close, and he stands up Crute when Crute goes for another takedown. The guillotine choke again from Crute fails, and he puts two knees to the body before Menifield pushes off and blasts Crute in the face with a right hand. Menifield punches his way back into the clinch, and Crute tries with all his might to secure a takedown. Menifield thwarts a double and then a single that comes chained after it, and he eats an unexpected knee to the nose from up close. Menifield is warned to work, and is then warned for striking the back of the head when he throws a punch. Crute tries one more odd-angled guillotine, and they trade knees and position right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Menifield

Round 2
The two meet in the middle of the cage, and Menifield darts forward with a shovel left hook. Crute hops back and narrowly evades taking a right hook flush on the jaw. Crute pokes out a few jabs, and he draws out a huge haymaker from his opponent. Menifield swings for the fences, and he misses as Crute is lighter on his feet. Menifield blocks a high kick to ring a right hand on the cheek, and Crute shakes it off and gets his head snapped back from a jab. The two trade jabs, and they go strike for strike with one another. Menifield nails the Aussie with a big right hand, and Crute shoots in for a double that he completes. Menifield fights his way back to his feet, and he backs himself up against the wall.
“The Brute” attacks a single-leg takedown, and Menifield snatches up a guillotine choke and turns the corner. Using the power submission to his advantage, Menifield pushes Crute to the mat and moves right into mount. The grip is vice-like and it is not only choking Crute but also cranking his neck, and Crute is shocked. After just a few seconds, Crute surrenders.
When the fight is over, Crute shakes his head with frustration, and he frantically paws at the tape on his gloves. Getting them unwrapped, the 27-year-old puts them on the floor as if to signal his retirement. On the other hand, that marks 13 finishes across the 14 victories for the Texan, who self-censors himself on the post-fight interview with comical expressions like “Oh Snickers.”

The Official Result
Alonzo Menifield def. Jimmy Crute R2 1:55 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Angelo picks Alonzo Menifield, despite acknowledging his sloppy striking, because of his excellent takedown defense and power. He expects Jimmy Crute to grapple early, but Menifield's 85% takedown defense should hold up, allowing him to land big shots. He has a small bet on Menifield at +185 and will include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

Included in Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry
"Alonzo is the pick I do have a small bet on him I have a quarter of a unit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Big Brady picks the underdog Menifield, citing Crute's poor fight IQ and Menifield's explosive power and takedown defense. He thinks if Crute tries to strike, Menifield can knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout for Menifield but admits he loses money on both fighters.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take the dog here in Alonso manifold ... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Cody picks Crute but with low confidence due to Crute's long layoff and knee injury. He notes Crute has great skills but is hittable and durability is a question. He sees Menifield as a live underdog with power and decent takedown defense. He thinks Crute's path is takedowns and control, but Menifield could land a big shot.

"I'm gonna go GB crew but basically it's a lot of narrative"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute, noting that Menifield tends to shut down when pressured. He highlights that Crute's aggressive, high-volume style will overwhelm Menifield, who lacks defensive depth and counter-punching ability. Connor also mentions that Crute's wrestling and kicks will create opportunities, and that Menifield's poor reactions to getting hit will be exploited. He acknowledges Crute's flaws but sees Menifield's mental fragility as a bigger issue.

"Personally this to me feels like the kind of fight jimmy crute wins... menafield can be made to shut down if you come to him with something that scares him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Crute's kicking game and cardio will be key. He can stay on the outside and avoid Menifield's power. Menifield slows down in later rounds and has poor cardio. Crute's BJJ is a threat if it goes to the ground, but he likely keeps it standing and outpoints Menifield. Crute has made life changes and looks in phenomenal shape. Menifield's only path is an early KO, but Crute's movement and kicks should neutralize that.

"I think Jimmy crew will do a really good job of just keeping his kicks going from the outside slowing down elon's amount of field when they're able to get into the clinch position"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Paul took Menifield at +180, citing Crute's long layoff, fragility, and Menifield's power. He worries about Menifield's gas tank but thinks the price is worth the risk. He notes Menifield has decent takedown defense and submission game if taken down.

"I took uh Mana field plus 180 on the money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield as an underdog over Jimmy Crute, citing Menifield's power and recent KO wins. He worries Crute will test his stand-up too long and get caught, predicting a first-round KO for Menifield. He notes Crute's grappling is elite but expects him to be too confident on the feet.

first round KO
"I'm going Alonzo many field by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Zane also picks Crute, agreeing that Menifield's tendency to freeze under pressure is a key factor. He notes that Crute's constant forward pressure and power shots will likely cause Menifield to hesitate and become defensive. Zane also points out that Menifield is not a good counter-puncher and struggles when forced to fight off the back foot. He believes Crute's aggression will be rewarded.

"Personally this to me feels like the kind of fight jimmy crute wins... menafield can be made to shut down if you come to him with something that scares him."
LOSS vs Jamahal Hill
KO (punches) R1 0:48 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Over 1.5 rounds bet (1 unit)
"i like jimmy to win i see a good amount of takedowns here so i actually like the 9 200 bucks"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

by submission
"give me jimmy crew to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

"i gotta think that hill edges them out um again this is a plus 140 hill this is a close fight this is the fight that i would label probably as a dogger pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

"I think jamal pieces him up with way too much volume and length and fluidity and speed on the fee so give me jamal hill to win a decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

"wrestle jimmy and you'll get the win just like dan said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Crute by submission +250
"i think it's the crew by submission honestly croot submission plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

"i'm gonna lean towards hill here i think um if he does get taken to the ground his grappling looked good enough or at least his heart looked good enough that he wasn't gonna tap"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.

first round kimura
"i'm gonna go with jimmy croots by first round kimura"
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 26 of 39 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jimmy Crute 0 18 of 35 51% 34 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 26 of 39 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jimmy Crute 0 18 of 35 51% 34 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 26 of 39 66% 20 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 18 of 35 51% 7 of 21 2 of 5 9 of 9 17 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 26 of 39 66% 20 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 18 of 35 51% 7 of 21 2 of 5 9 of 9 17 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Crute to win by second-round TKO. He cites Crute's superior striking stats, takedown accuracy, and youth, while Smith is hittable and has taken a lot of damage. He expects Crute to either knock Smith out or dominate on the ground, similar to Rakic's game plan. He notes Smith has been finished in 13 of 16 losses.

Crute by TKO in round 2
"i'm gonna take jimmy crude to win by a second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Cody is all in on Crute, praising his raw power, chin, and finishing ability. He notes Smith's durability and tendency to come back in later rounds but believes Crute's youth and aggression will be too much. He expects Crute to win by knockout or submission, and mentions that Smith's best chance is if Crute's cardio fails. He also suggests live betting on Smith if Crute slows down.

Crute by KO/TKO, live betting on Smith if Crute fades
"jimmy croup my boy plain and simple"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Daniel picks Jimmy Crute, citing his well-rounded skills, youth, and that he has already learned from his first loss. He expects Crute to take Smith down, neutralize him, and win via decision or finish. He notes Smith's wins often come via comeback and that Crute is unlikely to make a bonehead mistake.

"i'm going uh with jimmy lebrue crew to get the biggest win of his career here saturday night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I think Crute uses his wrestling and jiu-jitsu to grind out Smith. Smith has shown durability but also a tendency to shell up and take damage. Crute is young and aggressive, and I think he can get a TKO. I like Crute by TKO at +170, but the over 1.5 at -185 is also a good play as Smith is tough to finish early.

Crute by TKO +170; over 1.5 -185
"i think he uses his jiu jitsu and is wrestling to its best abilities and grinds anthony smith out here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Paul picks Crute, citing his youth, power, and aggression. He notes Smith's durability and comeback ability but thinks Crute's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Smith. He expects Crute to win by finish or decision, and mentions that Smith's best chance is if Crute gasses. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds but acknowledges Crute's first-round finishing potential.

Over 1.5 rounds (-180), Crute by KO/TKO
"i'm going to go with jimmy croot get those takedowns at work this guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute by decision, possibly 30-26. He believes Crute's grappling will be too much for Smith, who has been out-grappled before and tends to shell up. He notes Crute's underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to chop at the legs, and thinks Smith won't be able to hang on the ground.

"i'm going with jimmy crew"
KO (punches) R1 2:01 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 2 17 of 24 70% 18 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Modestas Bukauskas 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 2 17 of 24 70% 18 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Modestas Bukauskas 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 17 of 24 70% 8 of 14 1 of 1 8 of 9 14 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2
Modestas Bukauskas 7 of 17 41% 2 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 17 of 24 70% 8 of 14 1 of 1 8 of 9 14 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2
Modestas Bukauskas 7 of 17 41% 2 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Jimmy Crute

Round 1
Shifting gears to the 205-pound weight category, “The Brute” Crute (11-1, 3-1 UFC) faces another European opponent, this time in the form of “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (11-2, 1-0 UFC). In what could be an all-action battle, referee Anders Ohlsson will need to mind his P’s and Q’s in the cage, although the two light heavyweights do touch gloves to precede their mutual combat. Bukauskas starts off with a leg kick, and Crute is quick to counter him. Crute charges in and pursues a takedown, but manages to just push the Lithuanian against the cage. Crute lands a knee to the groin, and there is brief pause. Bukauskas is ready to continue quickly, and Crute swings and misses with a low kick. A right hand that follows does not miss, and Crute fires off another leg kick that connects shortly after. Bukauskas lands a one-two, and Crute slaps a kick that marks up the lead leg of his opponent already. Crute stings him with a right hand, and he continues his leg kick assault, this time on the inside. “The Brute” follows a double jab with a leg kick, and he resets for a moment.
When Bukauskas comes in for a body kick, Crute smashes him in the face with a right hand to send down falling to the ground. Bukauskas tries to return to his feet but he is wobbled and met with a fierce right hand that hurts him badly. Crute slings another right hand that does not find a target, but a vicious left hook from Crute sends Bukauskas crashing down to the canvas for good. As Ohlsson is tending to a barely conscious Bukauskas, Crute sits down next to his downed opponent to hug him. What a performance for Crute, breaking up a string of six consecutive decisions tonight with a beautiful knockout. The Official Result Jimmy Crute def. Modestas Bukauskas R1 2:01 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady is extremely confident in Crute, calling it one of his most confident picks on the card. He highlights Crute's excellent wrestling (81% takedown accuracy) and BJJ black belt, while Bukauskas has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission.

"give me jimmy crude here all day i mean is one of my most confident picks on the whole card"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute because of his evolving grappling game and versatility in takedowns. He notes that Bukauskas has been held against the cage and uses illegal elbows, while Crute has shown improvement and has a black belt in BJJ. He expects a second-round submission, possibly a kimura.

second round submission
"i think we're going to see a second round submission for jimmy crew maybe getting his patent in kimura on this card"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Over 1.5 rounds bet (1 unit)
"i like jimmy to win i see a good amount of takedowns here so i actually like the 9 200 bucks"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

by submission
"give me jimmy crew to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

"i gotta think that hill edges them out um again this is a plus 140 hill this is a close fight this is the fight that i would label probably as a dogger pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

"I think jamal pieces him up with way too much volume and length and fluidity and speed on the fee so give me jamal hill to win a decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

"wrestle jimmy and you'll get the win just like dan said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Crute by submission +250
"i think it's the crew by submission honestly croot submission plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

"i'm gonna lean towards hill here i think um if he does get taken to the ground his grappling looked good enough or at least his heart looked good enough that he wasn't gonna tap"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.

first round kimura
"i'm gonna go with jimmy croots by first round kimura"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Nice kicks from Crute. Gets punched goes to clinch. Jamal put his arse back circles and drops him with a punch moments later