vs
+180 -200
UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 46
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Clay Guida
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
3.0 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Leonardo Santos
2.82 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.4 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.88 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Clay Guida
Moneyline
FanDuel +180
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetRivers +1600
Decision
FanDuel +300
Leonardo Santos
Moneyline
BetMGM -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +450
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
DraftKings +165
Clay Guida - Fight History
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Submission (armbar) R1 3:41 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.

"Chase Hooper absolutely smokes here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.

Hooper inside the distance
"Chase Hooper inside the distance... whether it be submission or TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.

"This is just a layup for chase. Hooper. Yeah, it should be right really should be."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.

by submission
"I think he's going to come out here and finish Klay Guida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.

submission within first round
"I expect Hooper to submit quido within the first five minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.

Hooper by submission (small bet)
"Chase Hooper by submission is somewhat playable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.

Chase Hooper wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm going with Chase Hooper um getting this one done against Klay Guida"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.

"Jay super is gonna beat him using modern technology."
LOSS vs Joaquim Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 0 43 of 134 32% 63 of 155 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:23
Clay Guida 0 46 of 91 50% 85 of 141 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 18 of 64 28% 19 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Clay Guida 0 15 of 32 46% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
2 Joaquim Silva 0 14 of 33 42% 29 of 48 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:19
Clay Guida 0 15 of 20 75% 26 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
3 Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Clay Guida 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 43 of 134 32% 19 of 103 14 of 20 10 of 11 36 of 127 7 of 7 0 of 0
Clay Guida 46 of 91 50% 33 of 72 9 of 15 4 of 4 28 of 64 15 of 19 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 18 of 64 28% 6 of 51 6 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 32 46% 13 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 7
2 Joaquim Silva 14 of 33 42% 9 of 26 5 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 1
3 Joaquim Silva 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 3 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 16 of 39 41% 8 of 25 6 of 12 2 of 2 13 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"wae Sila would be the pick I suppose for whatever that's worth"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.

Silva inside the distance, possibly by submission
"I definitely feel like he could get a submission Guillotine here when Clay is shooting in on a Tak down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.

finish predicted, but not confident inside distance
"I'm going to go waim Silva I think he gets the Finish over Guida but if this fight reaches the third round things could get a little bit shaky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"the pick's got to be Yim Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.

"I got to go Joaquim Silva... dangerous powerful good jiujitsu... if you have finishing ability you beat Clay Guida."
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 63 of 252 25% 63 of 252 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 141 of 287 49% 143 of 289 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 23 of 92 25% 23 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 34 of 89 38% 34 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 21 of 88 23% 21 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 65 of 110 59% 65 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 19 of 72 26% 19 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 42 of 88 47% 44 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 63 of 252 25% 49 of 227 4 of 12 10 of 13 63 of 252 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 141 of 287 49% 130 of 269 5 of 12 6 of 6 138 of 284 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 23 of 92 25% 16 of 82 2 of 4 5 of 6 23 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 34 of 89 38% 29 of 81 1 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 21 of 88 23% 17 of 80 1 of 4 3 of 4 21 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 65 of 110 59% 63 of 107 2 of 3 0 of 0 62 of 107 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 19 of 72 26% 16 of 65 1 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 42 of 88 47% 38 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 2 42 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Clay Guida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop
"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)
"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 66 of 183 36% 95 of 215 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:35
Scott Holtzman 0 65 of 166 39% 77 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 23 of 79 29% 23 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 18 of 63 28% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Clay Guida 0 17 of 40 42% 29 of 53 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:55
Scott Holtzman 0 22 of 42 52% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Clay Guida 0 26 of 64 40% 43 of 83 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:40
Scott Holtzman 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 66 of 183 36% 30 of 134 23 of 36 13 of 13 58 of 173 5 of 7 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 65 of 166 39% 55 of 146 5 of 13 5 of 7 60 of 160 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 23 of 79 29% 10 of 59 5 of 12 8 of 8 22 of 77 1 of 2 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 18 of 63 28% 11 of 48 3 of 9 4 of 6 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 17 of 40 42% 9 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 22 of 42 52% 21 of 40 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Clay Guida 26 of 64 40% 11 of 44 13 of 18 2 of 2 19 of 56 4 of 5 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 25 of 61 40% 23 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.

"Scott Holtzman is absolutely the pick but I think we all love clay Guida right we're all going to be rooting for him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.

Holtzman wins by decision
"give me Scott Holtzman to go out there and win a decision I think he makes it look pretty dominant"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.

"I gotta go put that plus 135 clay Guida could be the PRP pick on a 15 fight card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.

"If he keeps giving himself chances to hurt, Clay Guida at some point, I have to assume that you'll hurt him bad enough to win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.

"I think it might be a dog or pass situation to be quite Frank with you but I'm gonna lean I'm gonna lean Scotty but I'm I'm not I'm not sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.

Holtzman inside the distance
"I love the minus 150 line on him I think that's a bit of a steal and I think there's a little bit of recency bias there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"I'm thinking clay as well and Clay has this ability with refs or with the judges too it's just like you know he does a lot of crazy motion and stuff and doesn't really throw some strikes but it's like …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.

Holtzman by TKO (elbows)
"I'm going with Scott Holtzman over cleguider"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.

"I think he's winning his wins. His hit right now. He is beating fighters who have lost. Whatever made them good at any point has been taken from them."
LOSS vs Claudio Puelles
Submission (kneebar) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Claudio Puelles

Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.

"i like claudio playlist to ride out a decision win and he's going to do so with the grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Claudio Puelles

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.

Win by submission, first round submission
"I'm actually going to take uh poyus here to win... I'm going to take him to win by submission at some point... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.

Live betting opportunity after round 1
"the official pick will ever so slightly be with uh the carpenter clay guido"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.

Included in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault. Also bet on over 2.5 rounds in the totals parlay.
"i'm going clay guido 1.07 units at -107 so pretty much just to win one unit there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.

Clay by decision; live betting
"clay clay by decision could be uh good looks and clay in the live market could even could even be better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.

third round finish possible
"i am going to go have clay guida here it is a shock to me it is an absolute shock to me that seventy percent of topology are picking claudio poelas here"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:21 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 18 of 50 36% 50 of 87 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:09
Leonardo Santos 1 41 of 60 68% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 8 of 30 26% 34 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Leonardo Santos 1 39 of 58 67% 63 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Clay Guida 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 30 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:58
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 18 of 50 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 4 of 5 7 of 38 0 of 1 11 of 11
Leonardo Santos 41 of 60 68% 22 of 39 17 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 21 16 of 23 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 8 of 30 26% 6 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 3
Leonardo Santos 39 of 58 67% 21 of 38 16 of 18 2 of 2 11 of 19 16 of 23 12 of 16
2 Clay Guida 10 of 20 50% 2 of 12 5 of 5 3 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Leonardo Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Mark Madsen
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 72 of 212 33% 72 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 98 of 192 51% 101 of 198 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 32 of 52 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Mark Madsen 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 31 of 58 53% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Mark Madsen 0 31 of 90 34% 31 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 35 of 82 42% 35 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 72 of 212 33% 30 of 161 5 of 13 37 of 38 64 of 203 8 of 9 0 of 0
Clay Guida 98 of 192 51% 70 of 159 17 of 21 11 of 12 80 of 172 18 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 15 of 50 30% 7 of 38 0 of 3 8 of 9 13 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 32 of 52 61% 17 of 33 12 of 15 3 of 4 18 of 36 14 of 16 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 26 of 72 36% 10 of 56 3 of 3 13 of 13 22 of 67 4 of 5 0 of 0
Clay Guida 31 of 58 53% 24 of 50 3 of 4 4 of 4 29 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mark Madsen 31 of 90 34% 13 of 67 2 of 7 16 of 16 29 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 35 of 82 42% 29 of 76 2 of 2 4 of 4 33 of 80 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"i'm going to say mark mathen does get a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i'll pick mark matson i think he gets it off early with that wrestling it is elite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Guida by decision (+290); live bet on Guida after round 1
"i'm going with the clay guitar side of things here i do think that he uh nullifies the amount of damage and submission threats that's going to be coming his way early in this fight and then i think he …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i think mark madsen can come come back here off the shelf i know he hasn't fought in a while but uh i think that he can just turn this into just a straight up wrestling match and get the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

"i think he's gonna beat the [ __ ] out of mark madsen in the third round i can see a 29-28 mark madsen here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 58 of 126 46% 70 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:03
Michael Johnson 0 49 of 89 55% 65 of 107 3 of 7 42% 1 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 31 of 66 46% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Michael Johnson 0 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Clay Guida 0 14 of 27 51% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Michael Johnson 0 13 of 24 54% 21 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Clay Guida 0 13 of 33 39% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Michael Johnson 0 7 of 21 33% 13 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 58 of 126 46% 52 of 113 5 of 12 1 of 1 47 of 115 6 of 6 5 of 5
Michael Johnson 49 of 89 55% 31 of 71 12 of 12 6 of 6 32 of 72 14 of 14 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 31 of 66 46% 26 of 55 4 of 10 1 of 1 27 of 62 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 29 of 44 65% 21 of 36 5 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 14 of 27 51% 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Michael Johnson 13 of 24 54% 4 of 15 6 of 6 3 of 3 5 of 16 7 of 7 1 of 1
3 Clay Guida 13 of 33 39% 13 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 3
Michael Johnson 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.

betting advice: leave off parlays
"You've got to go with Johnson here, I think he's one of the least trustworthy fighters I've ever seen... I'm gonna say Johnson wins by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.

"i gotta go with michael johnson to get it done um hopefully he does uh don't don't [ __ ] this one up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.

Guida by decision; if Guida hits +200 it might be worth a play
"i'm picking clay gordy here i think he wins by decision i think we just see him over and over again just just grind on michael johnson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.

first or second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with michael johnson here getting it done he didn't take any damage in his last bout"
Leonardo Santos - Fight History
LOSS vs Jared Gordon
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 0 36 of 81 44% 41 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:54
Leonardo Santos 0 116 of 174 66% 203 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Leonardo Santos 0 37 of 60 61% 53 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Jared Gordon 0 13 of 24 54% 16 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Leonardo Santos 0 29 of 43 67% 51 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
3 Jared Gordon 0 13 of 35 37% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Leonardo Santos 0 50 of 71 70% 99 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 36 of 81 44% 21 of 60 11 of 16 4 of 5 29 of 74 7 of 7 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 116 of 174 66% 67 of 120 41 of 46 8 of 8 86 of 136 26 of 34 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 10 of 22 45% 3 of 11 5 of 8 2 of 3 8 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 37 of 60 61% 20 of 41 15 of 17 2 of 2 28 of 51 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Jared Gordon 13 of 24 54% 8 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 29 of 43 67% 12 of 23 15 of 18 2 of 2 18 of 26 11 of 17 0 of 0
3 Jared Gordon 13 of 35 37% 10 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 50 of 71 70% 35 of 56 11 of 11 4 of 4 40 of 59 6 of 8 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Leonardo Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-305), Santos (+255)

Round 1
The 42-year-old Santos will look to turn things around after an 0-2 2021, while Gordon had a three-fight winning streak snapped by Grant Dawson in his first outing of 2022. Herb Dean will oversee the lightweight clash. Santos will enjoy a seven-inch reach edge here. Gordon beings with a two-punch combination. Santos responds with a body kick. Santos with an inside leg kick. It’s a measured beginning, with very little action in the first two minutes. Santos can’t find the range on a front kick, and Gordon pressures forward but eats a knee up the middle. Gordon is struggling to find the range more than halfway through the round, but he does land a leg kick. Gordon rushes forward and lands a right hand. Santos counters Gordon with a knee up the middle. Another low kick for Gordon. Santos kicks at the body. Santos blocks a high kick. Gordon is getting a little more aggressive. He tags Santos with an uppercut and flurries with body work against the fence. Gordon gets a body lock and presses Santos into the cage. More short shots to the body by Gordon in the linch. Gordon moves forward, digs to the body and ties up with Santos. He lands a few punches to the head in the clinch before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Santos probes with a push kick, but it misses the mark. Gordon lands a leg kick and misses a combination to the head. Gordon closes the distance and shoves Santos into the fence. they separate quickly, but Gordon resets. Santos circles off and lands a knee down the middle. Gordon with a couple punches to the head as he wades forward. Gordon moves in with a combination, then backs away, a pattern that is repeating multiple times this round. Santos responds with a high kick on one of those entries, but mostly it’s Gordon moving forward and pressing the action. Santos shoots for a takedown and it drives Gordon into the fence. Santos is working his way to the back, but Gordon uses a couple fence grabs to his advantage and he turns the Brazilian into the fence. No it’s Gordon grinding away in the clinch. Gordon creates space to briefly dig to the body with punches before clinching with Santos again. Gordon with a couple punches to the head, then a few to the body. Finally, Santos turns and escapes. Gordon closes distance behind some right hands and shoves Santos into the fence yet again. Gordon rips the body as Santos seems content to hold his opponent’s head. Santos breaks free and Gordon moves forward. Santos lands a decent counter right hand in an exchange. The lightweights are content to stand at range in the last 15 seconds before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
Santos lands a front kick and Gordon counters with a punching combination. Gordon goes upstairs with a right hand. He remains on the attack with a trio of kicks to the inside leg of Santos. Gordon remains on the offensive as he moves forward with a combination to the head. Santos backs up and eats another combination. Gordon jabs through Santos guard, then works the body. More combinations land for Gordon, who is in a rhythm, though not necessarily threatening to finish the fight. Gordon rips the body and clinches with Santos. Snatos is on the fence, eating body shots. Santos frees himself and eats a few jabs. Gordon with a body-head combination. Gordon remains in Santos face, pressuring with combinations. “Flash” forces the clinch and lands punches on the break. Moments later, it’s another body shot and brief clinch from Gordon. Santos times a level change under a Gordon punch, but his opponent sprawls nicely. Santos is just hanging on while on the mat. Gordon mixes up punches to the head and ribs while the Brazilian clings to his legs. Gordon with more hammerfists and Dean urges Santos to work. Santos gets to his feet and shoves Gordon into the cage as time winds down. Santos leans on Gordon and the crowd voices its displeasure. Santos attempts a spinning back elbow on the break, but Gordon responds with a punching combination just before the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Leonardo Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon over Leonardo Santos. He notes that Santos is a phenomenal BJJ practitioner with deceptive power, but at 41 and on a two-fight losing streak, his cardio and takedown accuracy (29%) are concerns. Gordon was taken down seven times by Grant Dawson, but Angelo believes Gordon's pressure and striking volume will be the difference, similar to his win over Joe Solecki. He thinks Gordon can stay tough and grind out a decision.

"i'm going to go with gordon here to stay tough keep the pressure and grind out santos"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon but is hesitant. He acknowledges that Leonardo Santos is more skilled everywhere and has a seven-inch reach advantage, but Santos is 42 years old with terrible cardio, gassing out after five minutes. Gordon has poor durability but excellent cardio. Brady expects Gordon to survive the first round and take over in the second and third, winning a decision. He mentions the first round will be a sweat and suggests the Santos first-round prop could be in play.

Santos first round prop in play; Gordon from live betting perspective
"i am going to pick jared gordon to survive that first round and take over as the fight goes on and i'll say win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's cardio and pressure. He notes Santos' history of gassing out and thinks Gordon can grind him down. He expects Gordon to win by decision but acknowledges the risk of Santos' early power.

"i will take jared gordon uh probably by decision but regardless i will take jared gordon but i got this earmarked as like one of my potential apple pie [ __ ] that i can't have too much investment in …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi leans toward Leonardo Santos as a dog, but he is not confident. He notes that Santos is better everywhere technically, but at 42 years old he has only one round of gas left. Levi thinks Santos can hurt Gordon early, but if he doesn't finish, Gordon's pace will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if he were to bet, he would take Santos.

Mentions that Santos has been getting finished in back-to-back fights, which is alarming. Says the line is too high on Gordon (-360) and that Santos is live early.
"if I were to bet this this uh this fight I would say Leo Santos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Gordon should outwork Santos and win a decision, but the -265 price is too steep for the host's liking. Santos has knockout power and could catch Gordon, especially early. The host prefers Gordon by decision at +125 as a prop, and notes Santos by KO at +700 is live. He is not betting Gordon at this price.

Gordon by decision (+125) is the preferred prop. Santos by KO (+700) is mentioned as live.
"I think he outworks leo santos i think he wins a decision um but minus 265 is a little bit wild for me to take a shot on."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos as a dog, citing his power and submission threat. He took a small sprinkle on Santos by submission at +900. He thinks Santos could catch Gordon early, but acknowledges Gordon's pressure and cardio could be factors.

Santos by submission at +900 (small bet)
"i took a little small sprinkle of santos sub plus 900 um i'm gonna pick them over the uh as a plus 250 plus 215 dog as well don't know if i'm gonna get to the money line but uh …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

The Guru predicts Jared Gordon wins by third-round submission via arm triangle. He describes Gordon pushing Santos against the cage, landing knees and punches, and threatening submissions. He sees Santos slowing down due to age (42), and Gordon taking mount and locking in the arm triangle on a gassed Santos.

Submission via arm triangle in round 3
"jared gordon via third round submission remake a choke maybe a arm triangle i'll say an arm triangle third round for jared gordon"
LOSS vs Clay Guida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:21 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 18 of 50 36% 50 of 87 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:09
Leonardo Santos 1 41 of 60 68% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 8 of 30 26% 34 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Leonardo Santos 1 39 of 58 67% 63 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Clay Guida 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 30 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:58
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 18 of 50 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 4 of 5 7 of 38 0 of 1 11 of 11
Leonardo Santos 41 of 60 68% 22 of 39 17 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 21 16 of 23 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 8 of 30 26% 6 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 3
Leonardo Santos 39 of 58 67% 21 of 38 16 of 18 2 of 2 11 of 19 16 of 23 12 of 16
2 Clay Guida 10 of 20 50% 2 of 12 5 of 5 3 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Leonardo Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
KO (punches) R3 4:59 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 30 of 67 44% 74 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Leonardo Santos 0 46 of 84 54% 75 of 132 1 of 13 7% 0 0 8:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 10 of 19 52% 28 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
Leonardo Santos 0 12 of 23 52% 14 of 26 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:24
2 Grant Dawson 0 16 of 39 41% 40 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Leonardo Santos 0 23 of 42 54% 27 of 46 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:44
3 Grant Dawson 0 4 of 9 44% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Leonardo Santos 0 11 of 19 57% 34 of 60 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 30 of 67 44% 14 of 45 6 of 10 10 of 12 28 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 46 of 84 54% 16 of 48 23 of 27 7 of 9 33 of 68 9 of 11 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 10 of 19 52% 5 of 12 0 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 12 of 23 52% 3 of 11 7 of 10 2 of 2 8 of 18 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Grant Dawson 16 of 39 41% 6 of 25 6 of 9 4 of 5 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 23 of 42 54% 6 of 22 13 of 14 4 of 6 18 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Grant Dawson 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 11 of 19 57% 7 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Leonardo Santos vs. Grant Dawson

Round 1
At lightweight, two men averse to losing come to blows when the ageless Santos (18-3-1, 7-0-1 UFC) looks for his eighth win inside the Octagon against the surging “KGD” Dawson (16-1, 4-0 UFC). The third man in the cage is referee Chris Tognoni, and the contenders searching for a spot in the rankings touch gloves to start things off. Immediately, the two fighters are warned four reaching out their fingers. The Brazilian lands a leg kick, and he rushes forward with a pair of punches and lands a leg kick at the end of it. When Santos scores again, Dawson changes levels but gets stuffed. Santos bears down on him with shots, and he stuffs another takedown only to get kicked in the gut. Santos chops down the lead leg a few more times, leading Dawson to duck down and throw a big overhand right that Santos sees coming. Santos keeps working the leg from afar, and again there is a warning for outstretched fingers. Santos gets off a right hand that bounces off the side of Dawson’s head, and Dawson responds with a huge right hand that wobbles the Brazilian’s legs. Dawson takes advantage of this strike to aim for a takedown, and he lifts Santos in the air but cannot slam him down. Santos scrambles back to his feet and Dawson stays heavy, grinding him against the cage wall. Santos puts his hands up in frustration while Dawson drops in a few knees and foot stomps, and decides to get out of danger by hitting a quick trip to put Dawson on his back. Santos climbs into the guard, but “KGD” butt-scoots his way to the fencing. Santos cannot keep him down for long, and Dawson turns him around to hunt for a single leg takedown. Tognoni asks Dawson to stay busy, so Dawson obliges by changing levels for a double. Santos stops this move and slaps Dawson in the side of the head, and there is a cut on the back corner of Dawson’s head. Santos spins him into the cage and grinds out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The lightweights again touch gloves to seal the cage, and Tognoni angrily tells them both to close their fists. Santos walks forward with a jab and a follow-up right hand, and he backs off when Dawson kicks the leg. Santos returns fire with his own kick, and there is another warning for fingers. Dawson aims a leg kick and then second, leading Santos to kick him to the body and then fall over. Dawson stings his man with a right hand, and Santos steps in with a knee to the chest. The Brazilian throws two front kicks, and the second pounds off Dawson’s cup and the American falls to his knees in pain. Dawson takes a full minute before coming back, and Santos apologizes to begin the round again. Santos blocks a head kick and quickly responds with a calf kick. Dawson is on him with a quicker combination of a leg kick and an overhand right, and the two trade kicks one after the other. Dawson hacks at the lead leg and drops Santos to a knee, but the Brazilian stands back up and drills Dawson on the side of the head. Dawson rushes forward for a takedown, and he is greeted by a stern knee to the solar plexus. “KGD” continues his forward movement to press Santos into the cage wall, and he keeps Santos stuck against the fence while unable to ground his opponent. Dawson embraces the grind while failing to take the fight down, all while Santos palm strikes him in the face repeatedly until Tognoni separates the two. Santos charges forward with a string of strikes until Dawson shoots in on him. Santos sees this coming, and he swirls around to take Dawson’s back. Dawson is able to stand back up, but Santos is working him to the side of the head. The two break and start slugging it out with both landing with impunity. Santos tags Dawson and backs off, but “KGD” races after him and nails him in the face with a spinning wheel kick. Santos bounces off the fence, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
The final round begins with a glove touch, and both men trade big shots and walk them off. Dawson winds up and whiffs on a big right hand, and he marches forward to land a heavy leg kick. Santos eats a few punches, and when he tries to counter with an overhand right, Dawson ducks it to take the fight down. The Brazilian stuffs it and gets pressed into the fence, as Dawson changes levels for a single. Like every time in the fight so far, Santos defends the takedown. This time, Dawson lifts his opponent in the air, but he sets him down when Santos is able to keep his balance. Both men grab the fence, and Dawson redoubles his effort and finally is able to take Santos down. Santos drops to his knees, and Dawson is on his back and stays heavy when Santos rolls to his side. “KGD” steps over to three-quarter mount, and Santos keeps him there and pulls him back to half guard. Santos absorbs a right hand, and he defends his face from further punishment but precious seconds are ticking off the clock. Santos turns to sweep but Dawson pushes him back over, where the American uses his shoulder to keep Santos flat on his back. Santos bucks but Dawson’s top control is smothering him. Dawson starts to drop down left hands, and he ties up an arm-triangle choke from above only to let it go and drop down a few hammerfists. Dawson continues to re-introduce his fist into Santos’ face again and again, and Santos just takes them flush and does not show any concern. Dawson sits up, and Santos pulls for a heel hook as Dawson stands to his feet. “KGD” slams his right hand into Santos’ face, and as he keeps blasting him, Santos is suddenly in big trouble.
Another right hand lands, and Santos’ hands drop and his grip releases because he is out cold! Dawson keeps smashing, and Santos’ mouthpiece goes flying to let Tognoni know that the Brazilian is completely unconscious.
Unbelievable! Dawson could have been down on the scorecards in the last round, and he scores the literal last-second knockout to hand Santos his first defeat in over a decade!

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Leonardo Santos R3 4:59 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant, acknowledging Santos' power and takedown defense. He notes Dawson is younger and has a wrestling advantage, but Santos has extreme power and has stuffed takedowns before. Brady worries about Dawson's hittability and the weight cut up to 155. He expects Dawson to win by decision through pressure and volume, but says it's a dog-or-pass fight and might look at Santos' KO prop.

Grant Dawson wins by decision; considers Santos KO prop
"i think dawson's gonna kind of drown them with the pressure and uh and when a decision here so give me dawson by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Daniel Levi picks Grant Dawson, expecting him to overwhelm Santos with cardio and pace in the later rounds. He notes Dawson's ability to recover from big shots and sees Santos' cardio as a potential weakness. He mentions James Krause's confidence in Dawson's submission ability but doesn't necessarily predict a submission. He acknowledges the early rounds could be sketchy.

"i'll go with grand dawson to hand leo santos his first ever ufc defeat"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Dawson is younger, faster, and has better cardio. He should use calf kicks and stay on the feet early to drain Santos' energy before taking him down. Santos has knockout power and solid takedown defense, but his cardio is lacking. Dawson's path is a decision win, but the price is too steep at -190. This is a no-bet due to the volatility.

Dawson by decision
"I do like dawson here um it's just going to be a no bet though it's just too tough to call"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson over Leonardo Santos. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, noting he is not a scrambly grappler and is content to rest in half guard and land total strikes. He expects Dawson to control Santos against the cage for the first two rounds and win by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Santos is dangerous and has KO power, but thinks the 41-year-old will slow down.

"i'm taking dawson though leonardo santos is a risky man to bet against because he continues to get it done despite his age"
WIN vs Roman Bogatov
Decision (unanimous) (29–26, 29–26, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 66 of 119 55% 116 of 181 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Roman Bogatov 0 50 of 117 42% 81 of 155 1 of 11 9% 0 1 6:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
Roman Bogatov 0 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Leonardo Santos 0 43 of 61 70% 75 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Roman Bogatov 0 13 of 30 43% 27 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:38
3 Leonardo Santos 0 3 of 11 27% 20 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Roman Bogatov 0 18 of 37 48% 35 of 57 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 66 of 119 55% 56 of 106 6 of 9 4 of 4 42 of 89 10 of 12 14 of 18
Roman Bogatov 50 of 117 42% 24 of 82 20 of 29 6 of 6 37 of 96 6 of 7 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 3 of 5 4 of 4 17 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2
Roman Bogatov 19 of 50 38% 7 of 34 7 of 11 5 of 5 18 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Leonardo Santos 43 of 61 70% 41 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 37 7 of 8 13 of 16
Roman Bogatov 13 of 30 43% 8 of 23 4 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 17 0 of 0 6 of 13
3 Leonardo Santos 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Bogatov 18 of 37 48% 9 of 25 9 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 30 5 of 6 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos by submission in round 2, highlighting Santos' fourth-degree BJJ black belt and improved striking. He believes Bogatov's path to victory via takedowns plays into Santos' strength, and Santos can catch him in a submission or win on the feet.

submission round 2
"i gotta go with santos i wanna go submission i wanna go submission i'm gonna go submission round one ... give me uh santos with a second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos, calling him an underrated badass with world-class jiu-jitsu and knockout power. He acknowledges Bogatov's wrestling and pressure style could make it close, but believes Santos's experience, well-roundedness, and ability to capitalize on openings (submission or KO) will prevail. He notes Santos's age and layoffs but thinks his style keeps him fresh.

"I have to favor Leo just cuz the experience I think he's the more well-rounded guy and I think he's a serious fighter"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Santos is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with improving striking, as shown by his knockout of Stevie Ray. Bogatov wants to wrestle, but that plays into Santos's strength. Expects Santos to win by submission, likely an armbar in the second round.

submission in second round
"I like Santos to win this fight I'll probably take him to win by by submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert pick date unknown

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

WIN vs Stevie Ray
KO (punch) R1 2:17 · UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · Jun 01, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stevie Ray 1 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stevie Ray 1 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 2 of 11 18% 0 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 12 of 16 75% 4 of 5 6 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 2 of 11 18% 0 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 12 of 16 75% 4 of 5 6 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson 2 · Oct 08, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 34 of 83 40% 34 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 3 of 18 16% 3 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Leonardo Santos 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Leonardo Santos 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 23 of 70 32% 9 of 47 7 of 16 7 of 7 22 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 34 of 83 40% 8 of 48 6 of 10 20 of 25 34 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 4 of 22 18% 0 of 11 4 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 3 of 18 16% 0 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 6 3 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Leonardo Santos 9 of 28 32% 2 of 19 2 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 12 of 26 46% 2 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 9 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Leonardo Santos 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 19 of 39 48% 6 of 24 3 of 5 10 of 10 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Kevin Lee
TKO (punches) R1 3:26 · UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor · Dec 12, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 1 32 of 48 66% 32 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Kevin Lee 0 10 of 46 21% 10 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 1 32 of 48 66% 32 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Kevin Lee 0 10 of 46 21% 10 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 32 of 48 66% 22 of 38 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 30 0 of 0 14 of 18
Kevin Lee 10 of 46 21% 5 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 32 of 48 66% 22 of 38 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 30 0 of 0 14 of 18
Kevin Lee 10 of 46 21% 5 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:29 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare · Mar 21, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 12 of 39 30% 16 of 43 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 14 of 36 38% 24 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 5 of 23 21% 8 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 9 of 25 36% 19 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:48
2 Leonardo Santos 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 12 of 39 30% 6 of 25 0 of 3 6 of 11 12 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 14 of 36 38% 8 of 30 1 of 1 5 of 5 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 5 of 23 21% 2 of 14 0 of 3 3 of 6 5 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 9 of 25 36% 5 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Leonardo Santos 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 5 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay guide is a fan favorite it's las vegas if he …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"