Career Averages - Clay Guida
Career Averages - Leonardo Santos
Clay Guida
Leonardo Santos
Clay Guida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.
Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.
Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.
Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.
Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.
Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 43 of 134 | 32% | 63 of 155 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 85 of 141 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 19 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 29 of 48 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 26 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 43 of 134 | 32% | 19 of 103 | 14 of 20 | 10 of 11 | 36 of 127 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 46 of 91 | 50% | 33 of 72 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 64 | 15 of 19 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 18 of 64 | 28% | 6 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 32 | 46% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 14 of 33 | 42% | 9 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 20 | 75% | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.
Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.
Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.
Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 0 | 63 of 252 | 25% | 63 of 252 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 141 of 287 | 49% | 143 of 289 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 0 | 23 of 92 | 25% | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 34 of 89 | 38% | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 0 | 21 of 88 | 23% | 21 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 65 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 0 | 19 of 72 | 26% | 19 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 42 of 88 | 47% | 44 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 63 of 252 | 25% | 49 of 227 | 4 of 12 | 10 of 13 | 63 of 252 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 141 of 287 | 49% | 130 of 269 | 5 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 138 of 284 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 23 of 92 | 25% | 16 of 82 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 34 of 89 | 38% | 29 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 21 of 88 | 23% | 17 of 80 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 65 of 110 | 59% | 63 of 107 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 62 of 107 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 19 of 72 | 26% | 16 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 42 of 88 | 47% | 38 of 81 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)
Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.
Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.
Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.
Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.
Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.
Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.
The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.
Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 66 of 183 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 65 of 166 | 39% | 77 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 23 of 79 | 29% | 23 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 29 of 53 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 43 of 83 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 66 of 183 | 36% | 30 of 134 | 23 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 58 of 173 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 65 of 166 | 39% | 55 of 146 | 5 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 60 of 160 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 23 of 79 | 29% | 10 of 59 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 48 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 26 of 64 | 40% | 11 of 44 | 13 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 25 of 61 | 40% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.
Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.
Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.
Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.
Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.
The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.
Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.
The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.
Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.
Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.
The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 50 of 87 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 65 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 34 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 63 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 18 of 50 | 36% | 8 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 41 of 60 | 68% | 22 of 39 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 8 of 30 | 26% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Leonardo Santos | 39 of 58 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Leonardo Santos | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.
Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.
Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.
Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.
Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.
I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.
Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 72 of 212 | 33% | 72 of 212 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 98 of 192 | 51% | 101 of 198 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 32 of 52 | 61% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 31 of 90 | 34% | 31 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 35 of 82 | 42% | 35 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 72 of 212 | 33% | 30 of 161 | 5 of 13 | 37 of 38 | 64 of 203 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 98 of 192 | 51% | 70 of 159 | 17 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 80 of 172 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 15 of 50 | 30% | 7 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 32 of 52 | 61% | 17 of 33 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 36 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 26 of 72 | 36% | 10 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 13 | 22 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 31 of 58 | 53% | 24 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 31 of 90 | 34% | 13 of 67 | 2 of 7 | 16 of 16 | 29 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 35 of 82 | 42% | 29 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.
Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.
Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.
Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.
The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 58 of 126 | 46% | 70 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 49 of 89 | 55% | 65 of 107 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 6:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 29 of 44 | 65% | 31 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 58 of 126 | 46% | 52 of 113 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 47 of 115 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 |
| Michael Johnson | 49 of 89 | 55% | 31 of 71 | 12 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 72 | 14 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 31 of 66 | 46% | 26 of 55 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 62 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 29 of 44 | 65% | 21 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 14 of 27 | 51% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Michael Johnson | 13 of 24 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Michael Johnson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.
Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.
Leonardo Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 36 of 81 | 44% | 41 of 86 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 116 of 174 | 66% | 203 of 265 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 37 of 60 | 61% | 53 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 51 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:54 | |
| 3 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 50 of 71 | 70% | 99 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 36 of 81 | 44% | 21 of 60 | 11 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 29 of 74 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 116 of 174 | 66% | 67 of 120 | 41 of 46 | 8 of 8 | 86 of 136 | 26 of 34 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 10 of 22 | 45% | 3 of 11 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 37 of 60 | 61% | 20 of 41 | 15 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 51 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Gordon | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 29 of 43 | 67% | 12 of 23 | 15 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 26 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Gordon | 13 of 35 | 37% | 10 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 50 of 71 | 70% | 35 of 56 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 40 of 59 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-305), Santos (+255)
Round 1
The 42-year-old Santos will look to turn things around after an 0-2 2021, while Gordon had a three-fight winning streak snapped by Grant Dawson in his first outing of 2022. Herb Dean will oversee the lightweight clash. Santos will enjoy a seven-inch reach edge here. Gordon beings with a two-punch combination. Santos responds with a body kick. Santos with an inside leg kick. It’s a measured beginning, with very little action in the first two minutes. Santos can’t find the range on a front kick, and Gordon pressures forward but eats a knee up the middle. Gordon is struggling to find the range more than halfway through the round, but he does land a leg kick. Gordon rushes forward and lands a right hand. Santos counters Gordon with a knee up the middle. Another low kick for Gordon. Santos kicks at the body. Santos blocks a high kick. Gordon is getting a little more aggressive. He tags Santos with an uppercut and flurries with body work against the fence. Gordon gets a body lock and presses Santos into the cage. More short shots to the body by Gordon in the linch. Gordon moves forward, digs to the body and ties up with Santos. He lands a few punches to the head in the clinch before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 2
Santos probes with a push kick, but it misses the mark. Gordon lands a leg kick and misses a combination to the head. Gordon closes the distance and shoves Santos into the fence. they separate quickly, but Gordon resets. Santos circles off and lands a knee down the middle. Gordon with a couple punches to the head as he wades forward. Gordon moves in with a combination, then backs away, a pattern that is repeating multiple times this round. Santos responds with a high kick on one of those entries, but mostly it’s Gordon moving forward and pressing the action. Santos shoots for a takedown and it drives Gordon into the fence. Santos is working his way to the back, but Gordon uses a couple fence grabs to his advantage and he turns the Brazilian into the fence. No it’s Gordon grinding away in the clinch. Gordon creates space to briefly dig to the body with punches before clinching with Santos again. Gordon with a couple punches to the head, then a few to the body. Finally, Santos turns and escapes. Gordon closes distance behind some right hands and shoves Santos into the fence yet again. Gordon rips the body as Santos seems content to hold his opponent’s head. Santos breaks free and Gordon moves forward. Santos lands a decent counter right hand in an exchange. The lightweights are content to stand at range in the last 15 seconds before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 3
Santos lands a front kick and Gordon counters with a punching combination. Gordon goes upstairs with a right hand. He remains on the attack with a trio of kicks to the inside leg of Santos. Gordon remains on the offensive as he moves forward with a combination to the head. Santos backs up and eats another combination. Gordon jabs through Santos guard, then works the body. More combinations land for Gordon, who is in a rhythm, though not necessarily threatening to finish the fight. Gordon rips the body and clinches with Santos. Snatos is on the fence, eating body shots. Santos frees himself and eats a few jabs. Gordon with a body-head combination. Gordon remains in Santos face, pressuring with combinations. “Flash” forces the clinch and lands punches on the break. Moments later, it’s another body shot and brief clinch from Gordon. Santos times a level change under a Gordon punch, but his opponent sprawls nicely. Santos is just hanging on while on the mat. Gordon mixes up punches to the head and ribs while the Brazilian clings to his legs. Gordon with more hammerfists and Dean urges Santos to work. Santos gets to his feet and shoves Gordon into the cage as time winds down. Santos leans on Gordon and the crowd voices its displeasure. Santos attempts a spinning back elbow on the break, but Gordon responds with a punching combination just before the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Leonardo Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Jared Gordon over Leonardo Santos. He notes that Santos is a phenomenal BJJ practitioner with deceptive power, but at 41 and on a two-fight losing streak, his cardio and takedown accuracy (29%) are concerns. Gordon was taken down seven times by Grant Dawson, but Angelo believes Gordon's pressure and striking volume will be the difference, similar to his win over Joe Solecki. He thinks Gordon can stay tough and grind out a decision.
Big Brady picks Jared Gordon but is hesitant. He acknowledges that Leonardo Santos is more skilled everywhere and has a seven-inch reach advantage, but Santos is 42 years old with terrible cardio, gassing out after five minutes. Gordon has poor durability but excellent cardio. Brady expects Gordon to survive the first round and take over in the second and third, winning a decision. He mentions the first round will be a sweat and suggests the Santos first-round prop could be in play.
Cody picks Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's cardio and pressure. He notes Santos' history of gassing out and thinks Gordon can grind him down. He expects Gordon to win by decision but acknowledges the risk of Santos' early power.
Daniel Levi leans toward Leonardo Santos as a dog, but he is not confident. He notes that Santos is better everywhere technically, but at 42 years old he has only one round of gas left. Levi thinks Santos can hurt Gordon early, but if he doesn't finish, Gordon's pace will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if he were to bet, he would take Santos.
Gordon should outwork Santos and win a decision, but the -265 price is too steep for the host's liking. Santos has knockout power and could catch Gordon, especially early. The host prefers Gordon by decision at +125 as a prop, and notes Santos by KO at +700 is live. He is not betting Gordon at this price.
Paul picks Santos as a dog, citing his power and submission threat. He took a small sprinkle on Santos by submission at +900. He thinks Santos could catch Gordon early, but acknowledges Gordon's pressure and cardio could be factors.
The Guru predicts Jared Gordon wins by third-round submission via arm triangle. He describes Gordon pushing Santos against the cage, landing knees and punches, and threatening submissions. He sees Santos slowing down due to age (42), and Gordon taking mount and locking in the arm triangle on a gassed Santos.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 50 of 87 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 65 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 34 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 63 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 18 of 50 | 36% | 8 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 41 of 60 | 68% | 22 of 39 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 8 of 30 | 26% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Leonardo Santos | 39 of 58 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Leonardo Santos | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.
Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.
Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.
Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.
Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.
I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.
Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 30 of 67 | 44% | 74 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 46 of 84 | 54% | 75 of 132 | 1 of 13 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 8:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 40 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 34 of 60 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 30 of 67 | 44% | 14 of 45 | 6 of 10 | 10 of 12 | 28 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 46 of 84 | 54% | 16 of 48 | 23 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 33 of 68 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 12 of 23 | 52% | 3 of 11 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 16 of 39 | 41% | 6 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 23 of 42 | 54% | 6 of 22 | 13 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Leonardo Santos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At lightweight, two men averse to losing come to blows when the ageless Santos (18-3-1, 7-0-1 UFC) looks for his eighth win inside the Octagon against the surging “KGD” Dawson (16-1, 4-0 UFC). The third man in the cage is referee Chris Tognoni, and the contenders searching for a spot in the rankings touch gloves to start things off. Immediately, the two fighters are warned four reaching out their fingers. The Brazilian lands a leg kick, and he rushes forward with a pair of punches and lands a leg kick at the end of it. When Santos scores again, Dawson changes levels but gets stuffed. Santos bears down on him with shots, and he stuffs another takedown only to get kicked in the gut. Santos chops down the lead leg a few more times, leading Dawson to duck down and throw a big overhand right that Santos sees coming. Santos keeps working the leg from afar, and again there is a warning for outstretched fingers. Santos gets off a right hand that bounces off the side of Dawson’s head, and Dawson responds with a huge right hand that wobbles the Brazilian’s legs. Dawson takes advantage of this strike to aim for a takedown, and he lifts Santos in the air but cannot slam him down. Santos scrambles back to his feet and Dawson stays heavy, grinding him against the cage wall. Santos puts his hands up in frustration while Dawson drops in a few knees and foot stomps, and decides to get out of danger by hitting a quick trip to put Dawson on his back. Santos climbs into the guard, but “KGD” butt-scoots his way to the fencing. Santos cannot keep him down for long, and Dawson turns him around to hunt for a single leg takedown. Tognoni asks Dawson to stay busy, so Dawson obliges by changing levels for a double. Santos stops this move and slaps Dawson in the side of the head, and there is a cut on the back corner of Dawson’s head. Santos spins him into the cage and grinds out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 2
The lightweights again touch gloves to seal the cage, and Tognoni angrily tells them both to close their fists. Santos walks forward with a jab and a follow-up right hand, and he backs off when Dawson kicks the leg. Santos returns fire with his own kick, and there is another warning for fingers. Dawson aims a leg kick and then second, leading Santos to kick him to the body and then fall over. Dawson stings his man with a right hand, and Santos steps in with a knee to the chest. The Brazilian throws two front kicks, and the second pounds off Dawson’s cup and the American falls to his knees in pain. Dawson takes a full minute before coming back, and Santos apologizes to begin the round again. Santos blocks a head kick and quickly responds with a calf kick. Dawson is on him with a quicker combination of a leg kick and an overhand right, and the two trade kicks one after the other. Dawson hacks at the lead leg and drops Santos to a knee, but the Brazilian stands back up and drills Dawson on the side of the head. Dawson rushes forward for a takedown, and he is greeted by a stern knee to the solar plexus. “KGD” continues his forward movement to press Santos into the cage wall, and he keeps Santos stuck against the fence while unable to ground his opponent. Dawson embraces the grind while failing to take the fight down, all while Santos palm strikes him in the face repeatedly until Tognoni separates the two. Santos charges forward with a string of strikes until Dawson shoots in on him. Santos sees this coming, and he swirls around to take Dawson’s back. Dawson is able to stand back up, but Santos is working him to the side of the head. The two break and start slugging it out with both landing with impunity. Santos tags Dawson and backs off, but “KGD” races after him and nails him in the face with a spinning wheel kick. Santos bounces off the fence, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
The final round begins with a glove touch, and both men trade big shots and walk them off. Dawson winds up and whiffs on a big right hand, and he marches forward to land a heavy leg kick. Santos eats a few punches, and when he tries to counter with an overhand right, Dawson ducks it to take the fight down. The Brazilian stuffs it and gets pressed into the fence, as Dawson changes levels for a single. Like every time in the fight so far, Santos defends the takedown. This time, Dawson lifts his opponent in the air, but he sets him down when Santos is able to keep his balance. Both men grab the fence, and Dawson redoubles his effort and finally is able to take Santos down. Santos drops to his knees, and Dawson is on his back and stays heavy when Santos rolls to his side. “KGD” steps over to three-quarter mount, and Santos keeps him there and pulls him back to half guard. Santos absorbs a right hand, and he defends his face from further punishment but precious seconds are ticking off the clock. Santos turns to sweep but Dawson pushes him back over, where the American uses his shoulder to keep Santos flat on his back. Santos bucks but Dawson’s top control is smothering him. Dawson starts to drop down left hands, and he ties up an arm-triangle choke from above only to let it go and drop down a few hammerfists. Dawson continues to re-introduce his fist into Santos’ face again and again, and Santos just takes them flush and does not show any concern. Dawson sits up, and Santos pulls for a heel hook as Dawson stands to his feet. “KGD” slams his right hand into Santos’ face, and as he keeps blasting him, Santos is suddenly in big trouble.
Another right hand lands, and Santos’ hands drop and his grip releases because he is out cold! Dawson keeps smashing, and Santos’ mouthpiece goes flying to let Tognoni know that the Brazilian is completely unconscious.
Unbelievable! Dawson could have been down on the scorecards in the last round, and he scores the literal last-second knockout to hand Santos his first defeat in over a decade!
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Leonardo Santos R3 4:59 via KO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant, acknowledging Santos' power and takedown defense. He notes Dawson is younger and has a wrestling advantage, but Santos has extreme power and has stuffed takedowns before. Brady worries about Dawson's hittability and the weight cut up to 155. He expects Dawson to win by decision through pressure and volume, but says it's a dog-or-pass fight and might look at Santos' KO prop.
Daniel Levi picks Grant Dawson, expecting him to overwhelm Santos with cardio and pace in the later rounds. He notes Dawson's ability to recover from big shots and sees Santos' cardio as a potential weakness. He mentions James Krause's confidence in Dawson's submission ability but doesn't necessarily predict a submission. He acknowledges the early rounds could be sketchy.
Dawson is younger, faster, and has better cardio. He should use calf kicks and stay on the feet early to drain Santos' energy before taking him down. Santos has knockout power and solid takedown defense, but his cardio is lacking. Dawson's path is a decision win, but the price is too steep at -190. This is a no-bet due to the volatility.
The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson over Leonardo Santos. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, noting he is not a scrambly grappler and is content to rest in half guard and land total strikes. He expects Dawson to control Santos against the cage for the first two rounds and win by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Santos is dangerous and has KO power, but thinks the 41-year-old will slow down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 66 of 119 | 55% | 116 of 181 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Roman Bogatov | 0 | 50 of 117 | 42% | 81 of 155 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 6:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Roman Bogatov | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 43 of 61 | 70% | 75 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Roman Bogatov | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:38 | |
| 3 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Bogatov | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 35 of 57 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 66 of 119 | 55% | 56 of 106 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 89 | 10 of 12 | 14 of 18 |
| Roman Bogatov | 50 of 117 | 42% | 24 of 82 | 20 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 96 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 20 of 47 | 42% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Roman Bogatov | 19 of 50 | 38% | 7 of 34 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leonardo Santos | 43 of 61 | 70% | 41 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 37 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 16 |
| Roman Bogatov | 13 of 30 | 43% | 8 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | |
| 3 | Leonardo Santos | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Bogatov | 18 of 37 | 48% | 9 of 25 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos by submission in round 2, highlighting Santos' fourth-degree BJJ black belt and improved striking. He believes Bogatov's path to victory via takedowns plays into Santos' strength, and Santos can catch him in a submission or win on the feet.
Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos, calling him an underrated badass with world-class jiu-jitsu and knockout power. He acknowledges Bogatov's wrestling and pressure style could make it close, but believes Santos's experience, well-roundedness, and ability to capitalize on openings (submission or KO) will prevail. He notes Santos's age and layoffs but thinks his style keeps him fresh.
Santos is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with improving striking, as shown by his knockout of Stevie Ray. Bogatov wants to wrestle, but that plays into Santos's strength. Expects Santos to win by submission, likely an armbar in the second round.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stevie Ray | 1 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stevie Ray | 1 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stevie Ray | 12 of 16 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stevie Ray | 12 of 16 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Adriano Martins | 0 | 34 of 83 | 40% | 34 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Adriano Martins | 0 | 3 of 18 | 16% | 3 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Adriano Martins | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Adriano Martins | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 23 of 70 | 32% | 9 of 47 | 7 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Adriano Martins | 34 of 83 | 40% | 8 of 48 | 6 of 10 | 20 of 25 | 34 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 4 of 22 | 18% | 0 of 11 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Adriano Martins | 3 of 18 | 16% | 0 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leonardo Santos | 9 of 28 | 32% | 2 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Adriano Martins | 12 of 26 | 46% | 2 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leonardo Santos | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Adriano Martins | 19 of 39 | 48% | 6 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 32 of 48 | 66% | 32 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Kevin Lee | 0 | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 1 | 32 of 48 | 66% | 32 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Kevin Lee | 0 | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 32 of 48 | 66% | 22 of 38 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Kevin Lee | 10 of 46 | 21% | 5 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 32 of 48 | 66% | 22 of 38 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Kevin Lee | 10 of 46 | 21% | 5 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 16 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 5 of 23 | 21% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 2 | Leonardo Santos | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Santos | 12 of 39 | 30% | 6 of 25 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | 14 of 36 | 38% | 8 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonardo Santos | 5 of 23 | 21% | 2 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | 9 of 25 | 36% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leonardo Santos | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Rocco Martin | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.
Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.
Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.
Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.
Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.
I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.
Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.
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