Career Averages - Manel Kape
Career Averages - Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Manel Kape
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Manel Kape - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 1 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 1 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 17 of 23 | 73% | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 17 of 23 | 73% | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)
Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.
Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.
Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 61 of 115 | 53% | 47 of 95 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 40 of 80 | 50% | 19 of 55 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 19 of 40 | 47% | 15 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 28 of 48 | 58% | 22 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)
Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.
Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.
The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.
The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 1 | 111 of 168 | 66% | 111 of 168 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 57 of 112 | 50% | 60 of 115 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 32 of 48 | 66% | 32 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 21 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 39 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 1 | 40 of 54 | 74% | 40 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 111 of 168 | 66% | 71 of 127 | 18 of 19 | 22 of 22 | 109 of 165 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Bruno Silva | 57 of 112 | 50% | 27 of 74 | 21 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 55 of 110 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 32 of 48 | 66% | 21 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 31 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Silva | 19 of 34 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 39 of 66 | 59% | 25 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 38 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Silva | 27 of 43 | 62% | 13 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 40 of 54 | 74% | 25 of 38 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 40 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Bruno Silva | 11 of 35 | 31% | 7 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-345), Silva (+275)
Round 1
Keith Peterson will referee the final flyweight fight on the UFC calendar. Kape's striking looks extremely quick. Silva throws out some kicks but eats a right hand for leaving it out. Nice leg kick by Kape, who then follows it up with punches. A big overhand right for Silva lands. A low blow hits Kape. The fight is restarted after a brief break. Silva keeps getting caught by Kape after he throws out leg kicks. Kape is the faster fighter. Kape gets kicked in the groin again. No point is taken. Kape finishes off the round in control and misses a spinning back fist.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Silva charges forward, trying to get a takedown attempt, but it's unsuccessful. Kape catches Silva with a hook. Silva gets hurt with a right hook. Kape taunts him and then lands a huge right hand as well. Silva's power is just not respected by Kape. Yet another low blow as Kape goes down. Peterson finally takes a point from Silva. Kape looks reenergized. After hitting Silva with a right hook, Kape mocks him and dances as he avoids another punch. Incredible theater here and quite embarrassing for Silva, who is getting clowned up despite landing several illegal strikes. A solid right hand lands for Silva. Kape finishes the round with a solid body kick.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Kape
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Kape
Round 3
Silva comes out recklessly swinging as he knows he needs a finish. A right hand cracks Kape, but he doesn't show any signs of being hurt. Kape is continuing to piece up Silva, landing a combination of punches to the body. Silva walks backward into the fence while Kape lands hooks to the body. Silva charges forward and lands a left hook.
Kape lands a brutal body kick, and Silva turtles up. Kape continues with a flurry of punches, and Silva falls to the floor.
Peterson waves it off as Silva has no fight left in him.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Bruno Silva via TKO (Punches); R3, 1:57.
Angelo picks Kape as the cleaner, more technical striker with better footwork. He notes Kape's speed, explosiveness, and ability to bounce in and out of range, while Silva is a tough bruiser who is good everywhere but not technical. He expects Kape to win by decision due to Silva's toughness, and sees value in Kape's odds.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by second-round knockout, but is hesitant due to Kape's inconsistency. He notes Kape has looked like a star in some fights but has also had terrible performances where he did nothing. He thinks Kape has a major skill advantage and should finish Silva, but is not sure he will show up.
Cody picks Bruno Silva as a live underdog, citing Manel Kape's history of tentative performances and poor output. He notes Silva's power, durability, and recent knockout wins, and believes Silva's willingness to push the pace will expose Kape's tendency to sit back. Cody also mentions Silva's training at Fight Ready with high-level partners.
Connor picks Kape, acknowledging Silva's toughness and well-roundedness but noting that Kape's athleticism and speed are superior. He thinks Silva's best chance is to pressure, but that plays into Kape's counterpunching. Connor expects a slow fight where Kape eventually lands a big shot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Manel Kape to win by knockout, citing Kape's fast hands and explosiveness. He notes that Bruno Silva is tough and will stand and trade, which plays into Kape's strengths. Vreeland believes Kape can hurt Silva more than Cody Durman did, and that a finish is likely. He mentions Kape's past issues with overconfidence but thinks he will perform well here.
Lucrative James picks Manel Kape to win, citing Kape's accuracy, athleticism, and durability. He acknowledges Bruno Silva's power and grappling upside, but believes Kape's sharpshooting and ability to land heavy blows will prevail. He notes Silva's recent poor performance against Cody Durden and Kape's overall skill advantage, though he admits Silva has value as an underdog.
Kape's explosiveness, power, and speed will be too much for Bruno Silva. He will land the more damaging strikes, which could lead to a finish, but the prediction is for Kape to win on the scorecards.
Paul leans towards Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody that the price is too high on Kape. He notes Kape's inconsistency and Silva's power and durability. Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation and is willing to take the plus money on Silva.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape, acknowledging Bruno Silva's underrated skills and finishing ability but believing Kape's takedown defense and durability are underrated. He notes that Kape has never been finished and has gone the distance with champions like Pantoja. He predicts Kape will win by TKO or decision, possibly with a flying knee. He dismisses Silva's wins as against lower-level competition.
Zane picks Kape despite his low-output style, because Kape's speed and explosiveness are too much for Silva. He notes that Silva is a counterpuncher who may struggle to time Kape's sporadic attacks, and that if Silva pressures, he risks getting countered. Zane thinks Silva will eventually get frustrated and get 'nuked'.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 82 | 36% | 47 of 102 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 34 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 10 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 27 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 82 | 36% | 11 of 39 | 13 of 22 | 6 of 21 | 27 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Manel Kape | 20 of 48 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 10 of 29 | 34% | 2 of 10 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 11 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 10 of 32 | 31% | 2 of 12 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Manel Kape | 3 of 13 | 23% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-130), Kape (+110)
Round 1
Sparks are soon to fly as the prelims—on ESPNews for the time being—will treat fans to a grudge match. Initially booked against one another a few months ago, Kape (19-6, 4-2 UFC) failed to make weight and the flyweight scrap against Mokaev (12-0, 1 NC; 6-0 UFC) fell through. Bad blood brewed as the two jawed at one another constantly and may have even come to blows at least once before settling it in the cage. They get to handle their business once and for all, and referee Mike Beltran and added security in the cage make sure that things do not get out of hand. Unsurprisingly, the flyweights have no interest in touching gloves as the battle begins. Mokaev sprints at his opponent, and Kape is ready to wing a right hand and stumbles after throwing it so hard. Mokaev nods at him and lets loose with a high kick that skims off the shoulder, and he tosses out a low kick that partially lands. Kape parries a front kick as the crowd releases “ole ole ole” chants, and the pace is surprisingly calm given the intensity of the pre-fight antics. Kape walks his man down but does not commit to any strikes of note, and Mokaev gets away with slapping the lead leg with a kick. The audience is quick to grow restless after the fever pitch of anticipation leading up to it, as the two flyweights do practically nothing. Mokaev prods with kicks while Kape just stands and measures him. When Kape lands a strike, he sends Mokaev staggering back, and he does not follow him and stays calm. Mokaev splits the guard with a front kick off the abdomen, and Mokaev is warned for outstretched fingers as he keeps his hand pointed out. Mokaev misses on two low kicks, and the fans hammer the fighters with boos while Beltran calls for action. Kape lunges with a straight left hand, and he slips when stepping back. Mokaev lands a push kick to the groin, and Kape waves him off and lets Mokaev land another body kick. Mokaev keeps slapping with low kicks, and he spins with a sudden wheel kick that grazes off Kape’s head. Kape darts forward with fists outstretched, and Mokaev defends against them. Kape crowds him again and gets off a left to the body, and he resets and eats a low kick. Kape throws one back, and he gets jabbed and kicked in response. Mokaev kicks up high, and Kape walks through a left hook and another groin kick before leaping at Kape with a knee. Mokaev drops down and goes for a takedown, and Kape stops it and cracks him with a few punches. Kape opens up with a left hand that hurts Mokaev, who shoots for a takedown that is easily thwarted. The disappointing round ends with Kape bouncing back.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
Mokaev does not take a seat between rounds, staring his opponent down the whole time. The second round begins and the two meet in the middle, and they pump-fake with hips but do not throw anything. Kape hops around switching stances, and he blocks a jump knee. Mokaev pushes out a front kick to the sternum, and Kape is warned for outstretched fingers. Mokaev tags him with a right hand, and he blocks a kick that breaks his toe. Kape goes to adjust his busted toe, and Mokaev runs at him attempting a knee but does not get to him. Kape continues to shake out his right foot, and he is ginger on it. Kape stops a takedown in the open cage, but a scramble results in Mokaev on top. Mokaev yanks on Kape’s shorts several times, nearly pulling them off, and Beltran calls time and angrily shouts at Mokaev for the egregious foul. Beltran takes away the position—a point should be taken but is not for some reason—and tells Mokaev it is his final warning. Kape appears better, and Mokaev reaches out and pokes him in the eye. Kape turns around, and Beltran notes the foul but does not call time, instead telling Kape to fight on. Kape suddenly turns around and stops a takedown, and he is irritated but gathers his thoughts and manages to get off a short left hand. Mokaev gets off a body kick, and Kape adjusts his shorts a few times. Kape smiles, and he times a counter left hand when Mokaev overextends. Kape walks through a punch and starts talking the Dagestani fighter down, landing two punches and eating a knee on the way as well. Mokaev gets enough space to push out a few kicks, and Kape throws a low kick and dips his way in but elects not to strike. Kape jumps at his man with two hooks, and he lands at the end of a left hand. Kape powers off another left hand, and Mokaev responds with a body kick. The horn sounds, and scorecards could be all over the map already.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 3
Before the last round opens, Beltran brings in the doctor to examine Kape’s toe, and he is cleared to continue although Beltran says he will keep an eye on it. They begin the final frame, and Kape stands in the center of the Octagon pawing out jabs. Mokaev slaps him in the face with a high kick, who races at him and misses on punches. Mokaev threatens back with a single, and Kape stonewalls him and leaps forward with a left hook that comes up short. Kape lets go with three punches, but only one partially connects. Mokaev jabs to intercept the advancing Kape, and he has a head kick disrupt him as well. Mokaev jumps after a takedown and is stopped in his tracks, and he gets to his feet and hops away from the lunging Angolan. Kape plants a one-two on the jaw, and he is met with a quick head kick that slaps him upside the head. Mokaev reaches with a low kick to the rear leg, and he retreats around the outer edge of the cage to not let Kape land on him. Mokaev beats his man to the punch, but he eats a left hand as his head is leaning against the wall. Mokaev goes after a single, and Kape defends with a guillotine choke as soon as he hits his back. Mokaev signals that he is not concerned, and he tries to yank his head out of danger and eventually succeeds. Kape goes wild from his back, spamming hacking elbows that stun Mokaev. Kape continues elbowing his man on the top of the head, and Mokaev gets busy with a few punches to the body. Kape pushes off the hips and rolls for a kneebar, and he lets it go to stand back up and push Mokaev away with 40 seconds left. Mokaev points to the floor to signal that they brawl, and Kape does not bite and fall victim to a takedown. Kape shoots for a low single, and Mokaev stops it and punches him in the face. Kape dings him back, and he gets dragged to his seat as he complains about an eye poke. Mokaev holds him down, and the audience boos them heartily. The flyweights immediately bury the hatchet, hugging it out as security watches closely. It’s anyone’s guess how this fight will be scored, but neither man put forth an effort worthy of a title fight in their next outing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (29-28 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (30-27 Mokaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (30-27 Mokaev)
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Manel Kape via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev despite his poor striking performance in his last fight, attributing it to a staph infection. He believes Mokaev's relentless wrestling will be the difference, as Manel Kape may be hesitant to let his hands go due to takedown fear. Angelo notes that Kape is a much better striker but expects Mokaev's pace and wrestling to win out.
Cody picks Muhammad Mokaev, citing his improving wrestling and grappling. He notes that Mokaev has been getting better at controlling opponents on the ground and that Manel Kape has shown poor takedown defense and cardio. Cody believes Mokaev's constant takedown threats will neutralize Kape's striking and lead to a decision win.
Daniel believes Manel Kape is the more well-rounded fighter with superior striking and experience. He thinks Mokaev's takedowns won't be enough to hold Kape down, and Kape will hurt Mokaev on the feet, potentially finishing him. He predicts a knockout.
Jeff picks Manel Kape as his dog of the week. He admits he may have faded Mokaev too much in the past, but believes Kape is one of the best flyweights. He thinks what Mokaev showed against Alex Perez is not enough to beat Kape.
Paul leans towards Manel Kape as a dog, citing the value at plus 130. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, Kape has a clear advantage. However, he acknowledges that Mokaev's wrestling is a major threat and that Kape has been taken down before. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' situation but is tempted by the line.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape by TKO in the second round. He believes Kape is levels above Mokaev on the feet and has better takedown defense, having trained with Dagestani wrestlers. The Guru notes that Mokaev has struggled on the feet against Alex Perez and often needs to clutch wins in the third round. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and land damaging strikes, possibly cutting Mokaev and finishing him in round two. He also mentions Kape's potential for fouling as a factor in his favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 1 | 112 of 182 | 61% | 116 of 186 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 99 of 304 | 32% | 101 of 310 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 1 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 32 of 96 | 33% | 32 of 96 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 37 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 32 of 106 | 30% | 34 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 112 of 182 | 61% | 77 of 137 | 24 of 30 | 11 of 15 | 92 of 149 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 24 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 99 of 304 | 32% | 53 of 215 | 28 of 60 | 18 of 29 | 94 of 292 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 36 of 55 | 65% | 18 of 35 | 13 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 32 of 96 | 33% | 13 of 65 | 13 of 20 | 6 of 11 | 31 of 92 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 37 of 61 | 60% | 26 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 32 of 53 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 35 of 102 | 34% | 19 of 69 | 9 of 22 | 7 of 11 | 34 of 100 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 39 of 66 | 59% | 33 of 56 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 32 of 106 | 30% | 21 of 81 | 6 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 29 of 100 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-410), dos Santos (+320)
Round 1
The UFC lost a terrific flyweight matchup of Kape (18-6, 3-2 UFC) vs. Kai Kara-France due to the latter’s concussion issue, and it tried to make the most of a bad situation by shuttling in a fighter who was going to make his mark on the Contender Series a few weeks ago. Instead of an audition, dos Santos (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) is thrust right into a pay-per-view main card, with the lights blindingly shining. A win for the Brazilian would be one for the ages as he would immediately jump into the rankings, but the hard-charging Kape will not go easy on him. Referee Greg Kleynjans takes charge of the cage for this “featured fight of the night,” and Kape is happy to still be fighting tonight so he offers a glove touch that is accepted. The two fighters clash together with immediate kicks, and Kape throws back with higher volume. The Brazilian wings a left hand over the top, and Kape gets stung but fires back with a vengeance. Kape connects with a low kick, and he gets knocked back with a jab. “Starboy” launches a rocket of a right hand that separates dos Santos from his balance, and Kape jumps on top of him and starts dropping strikes down until dos Santos throws his legs up for a desperation submission. Kape backs off to let him up, and he drives his fists into dos Santos’ dome a few more times to rock the newcomer once again. Dos Santos swings wild, and Kape is more composed and snipes him with a left hand. Kape paws out his jab and clips dos Santos on the way in with a short left, and when he kicks, dos Santos catches it. Kape tumbles to the mat, and as they scramble, Kape moves on top of him and busts him in the chops with several heavy punches. Kape gets pushed off and the two get back to striking, and dos Santos surprises the big favorite with a right hand and a knee up the middle. Kape is surprised but ready to keep attacking, and he walks into a front kick. Dos Santos is met with a leg kick, and he powers forward throwing hard but missing by a small margin. The Brazilian follows a jab with a head kick, and the two clinch up and start trading knees. Kape breaks with a big left hand, and dos Santos rolls with it and walks forward to swing with a haymaker. Kape times a spinning back elbow right on the dome, and the younger dos Santos eats it like a sandwich and keeps powering forward. Kape has a foot grabbed when kicking, and dos Santos tries to throw him down but Kape grabs the fence to stay upright. Kape muscles his man down to the mat, only to back off and keep trading. The two men get off power punches, and Kape scores a body kick and an elbow. Kape walks him down and smashes him in the face with a right hand, and dos Santos gives him one right back. A furious trading of fists ends the exciting round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
The flyweights do not race out of their corners this round, and instead dos Santos slowly wades forward reaching out with kicks. Kape slides out of the way of all of them, including a head kick that grazes his hair, and he returns fire with a low kick. When dos Santos commits to one in response, Kape drills him with a left hook. Dos Santos spams front kicks until charging forward with a right hook, and Kape takes the punches and counters, only to have his head snapped back with a right. Dos Santos kicks high as it bounces off the guard, and he spins with something but does not let it go. Instead, he settles down to fire off a right hand, and Kape trips him to the mat with a stern leg kick. Dos Santos climbs back up and connects with two low kicks, and he rushes forward and gets popped by a shovel uppercut of a right hand. Kape puts everything behind a right hand, and dos Santos slips it and counters, and Kape keeps his head movement active as well to make for an exciting near-miss exchange. Kape sits down on a right hand as dos Santos crashes the pocket, and the newcomer’s chin is impressive. Dos Santos gets off a jumping front kick, and both men smack one another in the face with right hooks. The two trade jabs, and Kape goes to the body and slips the long left that aims past his head. Kape counters a jab with three punches, and he staggers dos Santos with a left hook. The Brazilian wears it well once more, and he chains two punches together on the inside to drive dos Santos back. Kape digs his shin into dos Santos’ thigh, and he cracks dos Santos with a few punches. From up close, dos Santos spins with a kick, and it brushes into the cup but it is not called. Kape motions to his groin, and when it goes ignored, Kape surges into action and starts ripping into dos Santos with a flurry of ferocious fists. Dos Santos survives the assault and races forward, and Kape times an elbow right on the way in. Kape pierces the guard with a right hand, and he puts his hands behind his back. Dos Santos motions to him to hit him, and the two showboat and taunt at one another until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
Kape allows dos Santos to come at him so he can lean back and bat dos Santos in the jaw with a clubbing right hand. Dos Santos meanders forward, letting Kape kick him so he can try to front kick his way in. Kape does not allow him to close the distance, and instead tags the unbeaten fighter with a right hand. Dos Santos, not to be outdone, runs at him and reaches Kape with two punches. When Kape knocks him back, dos Santos replies, but Kape works the body as well. Dos Santos kicks the chest and swings hard, and he clips Kape and gets popped in return. The Brazilian lands a kick and gets tripped up, and when he gets back up, he connects with several punches that rock and cut Kape on the corner of his left eye. Despite the damage, Kape is excited when he gets blasted, and he chambers and fires a right hand that stuns dos Santos and knocks him down to a knee. Dos Santos races forward with a jump knee, and he pressures forward giving Kape everything he can handle with high volume and decent power. Kape moves enough to take the sting out of the shots, and puts himself in position for an effective counter. Kape times a huge right hand that snaps dos Santos’ chin to the side, but dos Santos is not shaken and he continues moving forward. Kape lets go with a flurry of hands, and dos Santos blinks it out and has entered “Terminator” mode. Despite taking shots, dos Santos will not back down, and even throws a spinning kick. Kape is composed and calm enough to time his counters, and he lets dos Santos charge at him and busts him in the chops. As dos Santos gets a bit too wild, Kape times a takedown and takes dos Santos off his feet. When on top, Kape rains down a final barrage of punches to conclude the fantastic scrap. Both men climb on top of the cage to motion to the crowd, and despite the all-out battle that Kape delivered, the crowd boos him heartily. What a fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Manel Kape, saying it should be Kape all day. He notes that Kape can control range and pace with more technical striking. Felipe is dangerous but hittable and reckless. Kape should be safe to parlay. Angelo sees a clear path for Felipe but doesn't think he can walk through Kape's shots.
Big Brady confidently picks Manel Kape, citing his high-level competition and recent finishes. He notes dos Santos is a big step down and can be taken down. He thinks Kape will knock him out in the first round.
Cody picks Kape confidently, citing his explosive power, superior striking, and experience against top competition. He notes that dos Santos is a young, green replacement on short notice with limited tape, and that Kape should win either by early finish or smart game plan. Cody acknowledges flyweight volatility but believes Kape is the clear pick.
Daniel Levi is very confident in Manel Kape, having placed a bet on him at minus 340. He believes Kape should be a much heavier favorite, lining him at 83-88% to win. Levi notes that dos Santos stands straight up and walks forward, leaving openings to the body and head. He predicts a body shot knockout. He respects dos Santos's potential but thinks Kape is on the road to a title shot.
Lucrative James believes Manel Kape is the better striker and will likely knock out Felipe dos Santos in round one. He notes that dos Santos fights like a lunatic, walking forward with pressure, but that style won't work against Kape's level. James acknowledges Kape can be low volume and has shown quit under pressure, but he thinks dos Santos's aggression will force Kape to crack him. He also mentions Kape's takedown and submission potential as additional paths.
Kape has tremendous experience and is difficult to deal with in the striking realm. He crashes the pocket and lands big shots. Dos Santos is a UFC newcomer who was scheduled for the contender series; this is a massive step up. Kape should be motivated and finish emphatically, possibly earning a highlight reel finish.
Paul picks Kape, noting that dos Santos is too green and that Kape's takedown defense and striking should be enough. He mentions that Kape may even be able to wrestle to secure rounds. Paul's only concern is that Kape might not throw enough, making the fight close, but he believes Kape covers the price.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over Felipe dos Santos, calling him 'the based one.' He notes that Kape has improved since his debut loss to Pantoja, with impressive finishes over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and David Dvorak. Dos Santos is 7-0 but has a split decision over a 5-2 regional opponent, which is not enough to pick him over Kape. He predicts Kape will have some trouble in round one but find a finish in round two or three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 0 | 33 of 94 | 35% | 55 of 122 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| David Dvořák | 1 | 58 of 119 | 48% | 67 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 25 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| David Dvořák | 1 | 37 of 63 | 58% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 33 of 94 | 35% | 17 of 68 | 6 of 12 | 10 of 14 | 31 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| David Dvořák | 58 of 119 | 48% | 33 of 85 | 19 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 44 of 99 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 6 of 15 | 40% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| David Dvořák | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 13 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| David Dvořák | 37 of 63 | 58% | 22 of 45 | 14 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 15 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 13 of 46 | 28% | 9 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| David Dvořák | 19 of 47 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-240), Dvorak (+200)
Round 1
Flyweights grace the cage next in a surprisingly important matchup for divisional relevance, surprising in how low this fight is placed for one that will determine a top-10 fighter at 125 pounds. Dvorak (20-4, 3-1 UFC) currently resides within that range, while Kape (17-6, 2-2 UFC) aims to break in and likely hunts for a dramatic finish to get there. With only five decisions across their 37 pro wins, referee Keith Peterson expects no nonsense here. There is no bad blood, as the contenders touch ‘em up before aiming to knock the other’s block off. The fighters are tentative to begin, heavily respecting the power of the other. Dvorak stays on the outside well out of striking range, and he scores one calf kick before darting away. Kape lines up his heavy overhand right but does not launch it, as Dvorak strafes away. Kape begins to showboat by putting his hands behind his back, hoping that he will draw Dvorak into an engagement, and he switches stances to give chase. Dvorak sinks in another powerful calf kick, and Kape is quick to changes stances to protect that lead wheel. Kape walks into a kick, and Dvorak continues to move and do circles around the cage. When Dvorak goes after another kick, Kape springs into action with a few punches, and Dvorak escapes in the nick of time. Kape charges and scores an uppercut, and as he attempts to follow it, Dvorak intercepts him and hits a speedy takedown to land in side control. When “The Undertaker” looks to pass to mount, Kape drags him back to his guard and closes it. Dvorak exerts heavy shoulder pressure and tries to weigh heavily, and Kape throws a few strikes from off his back. Kape gets stacked up and cracked with a left hand, and he fights off a Kape triangle or armbar setup. Kape isolates the left arm for a kimura, possibly looking to sweep his foe, and Dvorak settles for elbows to the thigh and side to answer. Kape keeps cranking the arm, and he gets it out and puts it behind Dvorak’s back and rolls his foe over. Dvorak fights with all his might to tough it out, and Kape torques it to a nasty angle but does not get the tap he seeks. The round ends before he can achieve the submission, but it might have won him the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Doctors check Dvorak between rounds to make sure his left arm has not taken any serious damage, as he held it walking back to his corner. He shows the medical staff he can stretch his arms just fine, and he is cleared to continue. The second round begins cautiously again, as Dvorak does not throw much from that hurt wing, but he doubles down with right hands when Kape comes at him. Kape waits for the perfect shot, staying in the center of the cage without using much offense, and springing into action every so often. Dvorak sees the blitzes coming and circles away from the power, moving laterally when Kape changes stances to chase. Kape bears down on his man and cracks him with two short punches, and he hops away when “The Undertaker” wings a right hand at him. Dvorak times a big right over the top, but it is one-and-done as Kape counters and misses. Dvorak thumps a calf kick home to prompt a change in stances, and he walks straight into a flying knee. Kape lines up a right hook and ducks straight into a head kick, but he eats it without issue and plods forward. Kape points at his damaged opponent and staggers him with a short salvo, doing enough to make Dvorak falls to his back. Dvorak aims upkicks while Kape attempts to finish the job, and he survives and even throws a wild kick off his back to nearly slap Kape in the face. “Starboy” calls him to stand back up, and he marches forward to rip the body with a pair of punches, Kape knows his foe is in trouble, and he bust him up with punches to the head and ribcage. Dvorak is tough, and he absorbs a clean spinning back elbow on the jaw and times the movement perfectly to shove Kape over, move on top and take Kape’s back. Nearly able to reach for a rear-naked choke, Dvorak elects to heel kick the side and posterior until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
Fists get bumped to start off the last round, and Dvorak’s movement and footwork is back beneath him after having the minute to clear his head. Dvorak swings and misses with two lunging hooks, and he dips back when Kape swats at him with a left hook. Dvorak begins to press forward, and he reaches up with spinning high kick. Kape dodges and showboats to look around and away, and Dvorak lunges in to strike. Kape intercepts him with a low kick and a short left hand, but Dvorak continues to move and throw in response. Dvorak gets a right hand over the top, and he closes in and gets uppercutted for his work. Kape is in his element, sniping with strikes and busting the Czech fighter’s nose open. When Kape leaps in, Dvorak pushes off with his fingers out, and Kape calls an eye poke. Peterson sees the possible foul, assesses that it was a legal but odd push-off, and restarts them. Dvorak goes low with a calf kick and scores a left, and Kape begins to start dribbling an invisible basketball. Dvorak races in with a takedown, knowing he is likely down on the scorecards, and Kape is too slick to get hold of him for long. Dvorak comes in with a jab, and Kape puts his hands behind his back and leans forward. When Kape attempts to set up a knee, Dvorak catches him with a left hook, but Kape does not mind. Dvorak lands again, and Kape gets caught but still continues to motion and make fun of his opponent. Dvorak gets hit on the way in, but he connects with his own punches until they crash together. Peterson checks to make sure the two did not clash heads, and he resets them in the clinch. Dvorak pushes off and swings with all his might, tagging Kape with a left and a right. Kape dances out of the way and swaggers off, with “The Undertaker” unable to catch him before the final bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. David Dvorak via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks David Dvořák, believing his technical soundness and leg kicks will neutralize Manel Kape's explosiveness. He expects a somewhat boring fight similar to Dvořák's last one, with Dvořák chopping down the tree and taking a decision. He notes Kape can be hesitant and lets opponents set the pace.
Big Brady likes Kape to finish Dvořák, noting Kape's 94% finish rate as a flyweight. He acknowledges Kape can be low-volume and has lost decisions when he doesn't let his hands go, but in recent fights he's been more active. He thinks Kape's takedown defense has improved, and if he keeps it on the feet he'll land a big shot. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody picks Kape, noting his dynamic striking and power. He thinks Kape has turned a corner with his aggression and volume. He notes Dvořák is durable but low output, and Kape's shots will matter more. He expects Kape to get the job done.
Connor picks Kape, citing his fight-changing power and athleticism. He notes Dvořák got rocked multiple times by Nicolau and Kape is faster and more powerful. He thinks Kape's pressure will be effective and that Dvořák's consistency may not overcome Kape's danger.
Dvořák has many paths to victory if he stays safe. He was a -125 favorite against Nico last time, showing his potential. After one loss, Kape is now a big favorite, which doesn't make sense. If the fight goes the full 15 minutes, the +205 will look good. Dvořák needs to stay conscious.
Paul picks Kape but is not confident, noting both fighters are low volume. He thinks the minus 235 is scary if it goes to decision. He sees Dvořák as the value side but picks Kape for the show.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over David Dvořák, believing Kape should have beaten Matheus Nicolau and has looked impressive against Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Ode' Osbourne. He questions Dvořák's level, noting his close fight with Nicolau and lack of explosiveness. He sees Kape as more explosive with higher finishing potential and good work on the outside, where Dvořák operates. He predicts a 29-28 or 30-27 decision win for Kape.
Zane picks Kape, noting he is a more dangerous, faster, harder-hitting fighter. He thinks Dvořák is consistent but Kape's power is rare at flyweight. He acknowledges Dvořák could find a back take in a scramble but expects Kape to hit him hard enough to prevent that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 2 | 53 of 72 | 73% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 31 of 79 | 39% | 31 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 2 | 53 of 72 | 73% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 31 of 79 | 39% | 31 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 53 of 72 | 73% | 39 of 56 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 31 of 79 | 39% | 19 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 31 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 53 of 72 | 73% | 39 of 56 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 31 of 79 | 39% | 19 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 31 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
When this flyweight fight ends, one of the two competitors between Kape (16-6, 1-2 UFC) and Zhumagulov (14-5, 1-2 UFC) will likely lift their UFC record to .500 and earn their second victory under the organization’s banner. In this classic battle of Angola vs. Kazakhstan, referee Keith Peterson may have his hands full overseeing what could be a fast-paced contest, but there will be no nonsense allowed while it takes place. Kape is amped up, and Peterson backs him off several times, and there is no sign of respect with a glove touch. Kape leaps out of his corner when the round begins in an attempt to beat Jorge Masvidal’s record, but Zhumagulov sees it come and pushes it away. Kape pops him with a right hand on the way out, but Zhumagulov is not fazed and pressures Kape with a few big punches. As Kape goes low with a kick, Zhumagulov tags him with an overhand right that knocks Kape back to the wall and draws a huge smile on his face. Zhumagulov does not get too aggressive, instead finding his range with an uppercut and a right hand. Zhumagulov trips, but he gathers himself before Kape can take advantage of it. The Kazakh marches Kape down, but he does not do so recklessly into a counter that Kape sets up in the form of a huge right hand. Zhumagulov steps forward with a knee, and he snaps a jab out that surprises Kape. They trade quick punches, and Zhumagulov follows up an exchange with a leg kick. When Kape lands with another kick to the calf, Zhumagulov jumps forward to drill him in the face. Zhumagulov checks one such kick, and he evades the leaping knee that soars at his chin. Kape tries to stick and move, only for Zhumagulov to follow him with a pair of punches that land flush. Zhumagulov swings a kick that collides into the thigh, and he rushes in with a punch salvo that Kape cannot escape in time. Kape lands with a left and a right, only for him to get countered on the way out. Kape continues to connect with leg kicks, and he sits down on a right hand that knocks Zhumagulov to his seat. Kape cannot keep Zhumagulov down, so when Zhumagulov stands, he busts him up with a few big right hands that send him careening to the wall.
Seeing he has his man hurt, Kape opens up with a brutal series of punches to the head and body and tees off on Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov tries to shell up and protect himself from the onslaught, but lightning-quick strikes get through and drop Zhumagulov down to the ground.
Peterson intervenes as soon as Zhumagulov slumps over, and Kape may very well have saved himself from a pink slip with an emphatic knockout over an opponent that had only been finished once in his career, back in 2015.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.
Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.
Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.
Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.
I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.
Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 0 | 103 of 287 | 35% | 104 of 291 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 120 of 234 | 51% | 131 of 245 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 0 | 26 of 77 | 33% | 27 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 25 of 48 | 52% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 0 | 38 of 94 | 40% | 38 of 94 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 51 of 100 | 51% | 51 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 0 | 39 of 116 | 33% | 39 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 44 of 86 | 51% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 103 of 287 | 35% | 45 of 201 | 28 of 48 | 30 of 38 | 101 of 281 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 120 of 234 | 51% | 78 of 179 | 29 of 41 | 13 of 14 | 106 of 217 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 26 of 77 | 33% | 10 of 54 | 10 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 25 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 25 of 48 | 52% | 11 of 29 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 38 of 94 | 40% | 23 of 72 | 7 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 51 of 100 | 51% | 36 of 81 | 10 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 40 of 88 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 39 of 116 | 33% | 12 of 75 | 11 of 20 | 16 of 21 | 38 of 114 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 44 of 86 | 51% | 31 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 43 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhumagulov (-195), Van (+165)
Round 1
After multiple withdrawals and opponent changes, Zhumagulov (14-8, 1-5 UFC) finally finds himself with a dance partner. In the flyweight division, he will face off against UFC newcomer and Fury FC staple Van (7-1, 0-0 UFC), who lives in Texas but hails from Myanmar. The Kazakhstan-based Zhumagulov has a lifeline after losing three straight fights, but with multiple controversial decision defeats on his ledger, he comes up against a fighter in Van who has never before heard the final bell as a pro. This potentially fast-paced affair will be officiated by referee Andrew Glenn, and it begins with a glove touch. Zhumagulov pushes the pace and flicks out a jab, and Van snaps his head back and gets kicked low with a foot that slides up into his cup. Van adjusts his athletic supporter and does not pause, and Zhumagulov walks after him with a front kick and a few follow-up punches. They trade heavy kicks, and Zhumagulov gives chase with a looping right hand. Zhumagulov digs a left to the body and right to the head, and he hops forward with a left hook. Van counters with a short right, and the two get their jabs going. Zhumagulov slips a right hook, and he kicks the calf in response. Van attacks the body and gets jabbed for his effort, and he snaps one back to shake up Zhumagulov’s new haircut. Van follows a jab with a sharp right hand, and he digs a left straight to the midsection. Van intercepts an advancing Zhumagulov with a leg kick, and Zhumagulov swings his way into a body lock takedown. Van breaks away with a knee to the body, and he slides back as Zhumagulov aims strikes at his torso. Zhumagulov comes up just short on a winging left hook, and he plants a one-two on the side of the head. Van looks to make him pay with a similar combination, and Zhumagulov is right there in front of him throwing hammers. Zhumagulov dips down to sling a left, and he walks through an uppercut to crash through a single and deposit Van to the floor. Van jumps right back up, and Zhumagulov hits a quick mat return. Van once more is able to wall-walk upright again, and they separate and fire off jabs. Both men aim body kicks at the same time, and Zhumagulov misses with a three-punch salvo. The close frame ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Round 2
The second round begins with the two trading quick strikes, and Zhumagulov starts off with multiple leg kicks. Van marches through them to push out jabs, and he surprises his foe with a one-two in the middle of Zhumagulov’s activity. Zhumagulov chips at him with jabs and leg kicks, and he gets stung with an overhand right but shakes it off. They clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks, and the jab from Van is starting to mark up his opponent. Van follows his jabs with right hands, and Zhumagulov swings back harder with inaccurate blows. The leg kicks from Zhumagulov are connecting, and Van backs him away and brushes his foe’s hair back with a blazing high kick. Van strides into a one-two, and he pushes out a front kick that Zhumagulov catches but not convert into a takedown. Zhumagulov loops a right hand around the guard, and Van whips a high kick at him that slams into the guard. Van duplicates the head kick and rocks Zhumagulov, and he proceeds to unload with a vicious salvo of punches that blasts into Zhumagulov. The Kazakh fighter toughs it out and counters well enough to keep Van honest, and he skirts away, still a little wobbled. Van does not recklessly chase, instead measuring with his jab and one-two, and Zhumagulov is more committed to single power punches. Zhumagulov telegraphs them as Van walks him down, he gets clipped behind the ear with a right hand. Van turns a front kick into a punch combination as Zhumagulov is trying to find his timing. Van eats a low kick, and he backpedals as Zhumagulov gives him the business with several kicks and a sharp uppercut. Zhumagulov wings a right hand that grazes the cheek and opens a cut, and he connects with a heavy leg kick. The two trade furious punches, and Van sends Zhumagulov staggering back. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist that smacks into Van’s chin, and he tries another that misses the mark. Van, seeing this, decides to spin with his own elbow, and the growingly exciting round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 3
There is a quick glove touch before the two flyweights decide to get right back to action, and they trade punches in a fun exchange. Van leans back from a haymaker to stick out several jabs, and he catches Zhumagulov coming in with straight punches. Zhumagulov still manages to land with his sweeping hook, and Van drives him back with a jab. Van follows a jab with a right hook that shakes Zhumagulov up, but Zhumagulov bites down on his mouthpiece and leaps forward with a left hook. Van’s jab is money, as Zhumagulov spins with a failed back fist in response. Van gets off an oblique kick to change the stance briefly, but Zhumagulov gathers a full head of steam and kicks the lead leg in retaliation. Zhumagulov gets his bell rung with a short stream of punches, and Van is in the driver’s seat as he knocks Zhumagulov’s head around. Zhumagulov throws one or two, while Van strings several together generally. This volume is giving Zhumagulov fits, and Van opens up with a step-in elbow that leads to them closing the distance and bumping their heads together. Zhumagulov protests, and after a moment of confusion, they get back to it. Van keeps coming forward, and he absorbs and shrugs off a left hook to jump at the Kazakh fighter with a jump kick. Zhumagulov lashes out with a few punches, and Van jabs to break it up and throw back a hard right hand. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist, and Van times this to bust Zhumagulov’s nose up with a combination. Van continues to push the pace, flicking out jabs and not missing a beat. Zhumagulov throws back with impunity, missing several looping strikes and others graze off the intended target to little effect. Van times a jab into a huge right hand, and when it misses, he chambers and fires another shorter right that meets the mark. Zhumagulov spins recklessly, and he sinks in a left hand when he recovers. Van stuns his foe with a one-two, and he spins with a wheel kick that misses the hairline. With 15 seconds left in the fight, the two start brawling. Van lands heavy blows, Zhumagulov gives chase and spins several times, only to get popped with sharp punches as he does. The 21-year-old newcomer sticks his tongue out, and after another exchange, the striking battle wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, citing a giant skill gap. He notes Zhalgas has been screwed by judges but should bully the UFC newcomer Joshua Van with his wrestling and pressure. He mentions the line at -185 is expensive for a guy 1-4 in his last five but expects Zhalgas to blow through Van.
Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, believing he is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Joshua Van is only 21 and coming into the UFC too soon, with poor takedown defense. He expects Zhumagulov to wrestle and control the fight, winning a decision. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's deceptive UFC record due to tough competition.
Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks Van is too young and inexperienced, and that Zhumagulov's pressure will overwhelm him. He mentions the Paddy Pimblett haircut as a good luck charm.
Connor picks Zhumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in recent fights to be more willing to be crazy and aggressive. He notes that Joshua Van is super raw, only 21 with eight pro fights, and while he has a good foundation, he often gets surprised and doesn't get out of range quickly. Connor thinks Zhumagulov's athleticism and aggression will be too much for the young Van. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's head may not be in the right place, but against this level of competition, he still expects Zhumagulov to win.
Daniel Levi picks Joshua Van, citing his athleticism, killer instinct, and ability to create finishes. He thinks Zhumagulov is beatable, fights close, and fades. He acknowledges Van's greenness but believes he can bully Zhumagulov. He is taking a shot on the newcomer.
The host picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by dominant decision. He believes Zhumagulov's experience and motivation will be key, and that he will keep the pressure on from the start, landing takedowns and controlling on the mat. He notes Van's lack of experience (only 2.5 years in MMA) and thinks the experience gap will be too much.
Paul picks Zhumagulov, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Van is too green and that Zhumagulov's pressure and wrestling will be too much. He expects a clear win.
The Guru picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, noting that Joshua Van relies on finishes and has only won by finish or been finished. He believes Zhumagulov is very difficult to finish, with only Manel Kape stopping him, and has experience against tough competition. He doubts Van can push a pace for three rounds in his debut, especially since Van was training for a fight in August and may not have ideal cardio.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Zhumagulov. He notes that Van is a low-output flyweight who is competent but not confident in taking the fight to opponents. Zane points out that if Van tries to have a kickboxing match, he won't match Zhumagulov's pace, and if Zhumagulov takes him down, Van may not be able to meaningfully respond. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's mentality has been getting worse, but he has been getting better as a fighter. Overall, Zane sees a huge experience gap and expects Zhumagulov to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 115 of 209 | 55% | 141 of 237 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 119 of 234 | 50% | 141 of 258 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 46 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 46 of 77 | 59% | 65 of 98 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 50 of 93 | 53% | 52 of 96 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 30 of 80 | 37% | 30 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 115 of 209 | 55% | 64 of 142 | 41 of 54 | 10 of 13 | 101 of 191 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 119 of 234 | 50% | 36 of 119 | 34 of 62 | 49 of 53 | 112 of 225 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 32 of 60 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 15 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 43 of 77 | 55% | 10 of 35 | 15 of 23 | 18 of 19 | 40 of 74 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 33 of 56 | 58% | 13 of 30 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 45 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 46 of 77 | 59% | 15 of 37 | 16 of 24 | 15 of 16 | 43 of 74 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 50 of 93 | 53% | 36 of 78 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 88 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 30 of 80 | 37% | 11 of 47 | 3 of 15 | 16 of 18 | 29 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 0 | 56 of 148 | 37% | 129 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 37 of 112 | 33% | 68 of 146 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 5:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 20 of 40 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 16 of 55 | 29% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 56 of 148 | 37% | 43 of 133 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 139 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 37 of 112 | 33% | 10 of 74 | 17 of 26 | 10 of 12 | 28 of 103 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 14 of 35 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 13 of 33 | 39% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 7 of 25 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 29 of 80 | 36% | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 16 of 55 | 29% | 3 of 35 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.
Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.
Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.
Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.
Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 2 | 53 of 72 | 73% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 31 of 79 | 39% | 31 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 2 | 53 of 72 | 73% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 31 of 79 | 39% | 31 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 53 of 72 | 73% | 39 of 56 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 31 of 79 | 39% | 19 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 31 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 53 of 72 | 73% | 39 of 56 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 31 of 79 | 39% | 19 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 31 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
When this flyweight fight ends, one of the two competitors between Kape (16-6, 1-2 UFC) and Zhumagulov (14-5, 1-2 UFC) will likely lift their UFC record to .500 and earn their second victory under the organization’s banner. In this classic battle of Angola vs. Kazakhstan, referee Keith Peterson may have his hands full overseeing what could be a fast-paced contest, but there will be no nonsense allowed while it takes place. Kape is amped up, and Peterson backs him off several times, and there is no sign of respect with a glove touch. Kape leaps out of his corner when the round begins in an attempt to beat Jorge Masvidal’s record, but Zhumagulov sees it come and pushes it away. Kape pops him with a right hand on the way out, but Zhumagulov is not fazed and pressures Kape with a few big punches. As Kape goes low with a kick, Zhumagulov tags him with an overhand right that knocks Kape back to the wall and draws a huge smile on his face. Zhumagulov does not get too aggressive, instead finding his range with an uppercut and a right hand. Zhumagulov trips, but he gathers himself before Kape can take advantage of it. The Kazakh marches Kape down, but he does not do so recklessly into a counter that Kape sets up in the form of a huge right hand. Zhumagulov steps forward with a knee, and he snaps a jab out that surprises Kape. They trade quick punches, and Zhumagulov follows up an exchange with a leg kick. When Kape lands with another kick to the calf, Zhumagulov jumps forward to drill him in the face. Zhumagulov checks one such kick, and he evades the leaping knee that soars at his chin. Kape tries to stick and move, only for Zhumagulov to follow him with a pair of punches that land flush. Zhumagulov swings a kick that collides into the thigh, and he rushes in with a punch salvo that Kape cannot escape in time. Kape lands with a left and a right, only for him to get countered on the way out. Kape continues to connect with leg kicks, and he sits down on a right hand that knocks Zhumagulov to his seat. Kape cannot keep Zhumagulov down, so when Zhumagulov stands, he busts him up with a few big right hands that send him careening to the wall.
Seeing he has his man hurt, Kape opens up with a brutal series of punches to the head and body and tees off on Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov tries to shell up and protect himself from the onslaught, but lightning-quick strikes get through and drop Zhumagulov down to the ground.
Peterson intervenes as soon as Zhumagulov slumps over, and Kape may very well have saved himself from a pink slip with an emphatic knockout over an opponent that had only been finished once in his career, back in 2015.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.
Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.
Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.
Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.
I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.
Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jerome Rivera | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jerome Rivera | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 10 of 24 | 41% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jerome Rivera | 11 of 40 | 27% | 2 of 27 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 10 of 24 | 41% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jerome Rivera | 11 of 40 | 27% | 2 of 27 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.
Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.
Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.
Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.
Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.
I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.
Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.
The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 68 of 169 | 40% | 94 of 200 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 59 of 132 | 44% | 74 of 150 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 14 of 58 | 24% | 25 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 29 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 32 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 37 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 68 of 169 | 40% | 40 of 128 | 15 of 24 | 13 of 17 | 64 of 163 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 59 of 132 | 44% | 22 of 84 | 31 of 41 | 6 of 7 | 58 of 128 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 14 of 58 | 24% | 6 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 23 of 39 | 58% | 9 of 24 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 31 of 69 | 44% | 19 of 51 | 5 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 25 of 56 | 44% | 9 of 34 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 23 of 42 | 54% | 15 of 32 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 26 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Amir Albazi as an underdog, citing his decent striking and good ground game. He notes Albazi submitted Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut. He expects a close fight and thinks Albazi will edge it out with takedowns. He is hesitant because Zhumagulov's fights are often close and he could have won his last fight.
Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, citing his aggression and forward pressure. He notes Zhumagulov gets bullied and has questionable wins. Levi believes Albazi is the more talented fighter and will win by being more aggressive, though he acknowledges it could be a toss-up.
Albazi is the younger, improving fighter with a strong grappling game. He has shown he can get the fight to the ground and has good jiu-jitsu, as seen in his submission win over Malcolm Gordon. Zhumagulov is primarily a striker who doesn't have great takedown defense and tends to lose early rounds. In a three-round fight, Albazi only needs to win the first two rounds by securing takedowns and controlling top position. I expect Albazi to win via decision.
The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi to win by submission in the first round, but later also mentions a close decision. He notes Albazi is younger, stronger, and more explosive, while Zhumagulov is slowing down. He references Albazi's impressive UFC debut submission and his grappling skills. He believes Zhumagulov's grinding style is not respected by judges, and Albazi's power and takedowns will be key. He also mentions betting on Albazi as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 52 of 121 | 42% | 56 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 66 of 119 | 55% | 73 of 126 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 32 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 52 of 121 | 42% | 14 of 71 | 22 of 31 | 16 of 19 | 51 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 66 of 119 | 55% | 19 of 61 | 17 of 25 | 30 of 33 | 64 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 21 of 47 | 44% | 6 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 19 of 41 | 46% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 7 of 20 | 9 of 13 | 11 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 15 of 34 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 20 of 34 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.
Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.
Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.
Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.
Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.
Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.
I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.
Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.
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