UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Edson Barboza
4.14 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.68 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Billy Quarantillo
7.44 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
5.83 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
1.47 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Edson Barboza
Moneyline
Unibet +148
KO/TKO
Unibet +400
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +390
Billy Quarantillo
Moneyline
Caesars -165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +240
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
BetRivers +275
Edson Barboza - Fight History
LOSS vs Jalin Turner
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.

"I'm gonna pick Jaylen Turner here because at this point in their careers, I think he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.

Turner by first round knockout
"I'm going to take Jaylen Turner to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.

"The reason I end up locking in Turner is more so you're you're right. His last fight against Jakar, he goes through the motions."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.

Turner by KO
"I think I have to take Turner honestly, which I can't pick Jaylen Turner after that last performance and not, especially not with all the additional context."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.

"I'm not really sure. Next week, I'll have a pick for y'all on this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.

Jalin Turner inside the distance
"Jaylen Turner inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think he's going to be more than dialed in to go out there and take advantage of the deteriorating durability of Edson Barbosa. Look for Turner to get this fight done within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.

"I don't think Jaylen Turner makes it to the third round, but he's big, he's strong, he's got more than enough power."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Jaylen Turner getting this one done by TKO finish brutally in the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.

"I have to pick him because of that, but man, if this is a Anthony Smith situation, yeah, like it's miss fight against, uh, Dom Reyes, then like he won of Anthony Smith's like last four fights."
LOSS vs Drakkar Klose
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 71 of 120 59% 73 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:50
Drakkar Klose 0 53 of 102 51% 147 of 209 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 24 of 36 66% 26 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Drakkar Klose 0 15 of 29 51% 68 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Edson Barboza 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Drakkar Klose 0 25 of 44 56% 50 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 46 63% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Drakkar Klose 0 13 of 29 44% 29 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 71 of 120 59% 26 of 64 32 of 38 13 of 18 57 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 53 of 102 51% 35 of 78 6 of 9 12 of 15 43 of 89 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 24 of 36 66% 4 of 11 13 of 17 7 of 8 18 of 30 6 of 6 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 15 of 29 51% 8 of 18 1 of 3 6 of 8 13 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 18 of 38 47% 7 of 22 10 of 12 1 of 4 14 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 25 of 44 56% 19 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 46 63% 15 of 31 9 of 9 5 of 6 25 of 42 4 of 4 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 13 of 29 44% 8 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo acknowledges both fighters are older but notes Barboza's striking, speed, and experience against top competition. He thinks Klose could wrestle but hasn't seen enough to suggest Barboza is washed. He leans Barboza but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"I'm going to lean Eden Barbosa here. I've seen that dude step up time and time and time again against some of the best that have ever done it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Big Brady picks Edson Barboza to win by second-round knockout. He notes Barboza is moving back up to lightweight, which should help his durability. He worries about Barboza's chin but thinks Klose doesn't have much power, with only two knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Barboza is the better striker and will knock out Klose, as Klose's path to victory is to sell out for grappling. He also mentions Klose's questionable durability and poor performance against Silva.

Barboza by KO, round 2
"I think Barbosa is the better striker and I think he knocks out Jakar Close. I think he's going to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor also picks Barboza, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Klose has the right idea to pressure Barboza but lacks the tools to finish. He thinks Barboza's experience and ability to stand his ground will be key. He also mentions that Barboza has been working to counter pressure his entire career and sometimes wins without solving it.

"Close has the right idea to beat Edson Barboza, but it isn't at all clear that he has the actual tools. Yeah, what's the follow through? You have to decision Edson Barboza with cage grinding. Yeah, that doesn't. He's not …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The host considers Klose one of the most underrated lightweights. He expects Klose to avoid Barboza's early finishing attempts, clinch him against the cage, wear him down, and grind out a decision win on the mat.

"I believe Close is one of the more underrated lightweights on the roster and I think he'll showcase it once again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The Guru picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision, 29-28. He cannot trust Edson Barboza at this point in his career, citing Barboza's long layoff, injuries, and move back up to lightweight. The Guru notes that Barboza took a lot of damage in his last fight against Lerone Murphy and that Klose will grapple and use his physicality. He believes Klose can execute a 'tepid version' of the recipe to beat Barboza and win a decision, though Barboza may have moments of hurting Klose.

Decision win 29-28; Klose wins by decision
"I'm going to go with Dakar Close getting this one done. Decision win 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Zane picks Barboza, noting that Klose is a pure pressure fighter but lacks the follow-through to beat Barboza. He thinks Barboza can meet Klose in the middle and outstrike him, or even if pressured, Barboza still has chances. He references Barboza's fight with Dariush as an example of Barboza winning despite being pushed around. He also notes that Klose is not a high-output pressure fighter and needs to clinch to be effective.

Klose opened -145, now +120; Barboza opened +125, now -140. Zane notes that people don't like Klose.
"I think I'm going to pick Barboza. Me too. It's somewhat like my pick for Jeff Neal. Yeah. That there's a good version of this fight where I would be very confident in Barboza winning. There's a bad version of …"
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–46, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 178 of 351 50% 206 of 397 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:56
Sodiq Yusuff 1 164 of 324 50% 178 of 347 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 42 of 80 52% 55 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:15
Sodiq Yusuff 0 13 of 25 52% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 42 of 79 53% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Sodiq Yusuff 0 31 of 65 47% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 1 32 of 68 47% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
4 Edson Barboza 0 35 of 79 44% 39 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Sodiq Yusuff 0 47 of 90 52% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
5 Edson Barboza 0 30 of 55 54% 40 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 0 41 of 76 53% 41 of 77 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 178 of 351 50% 126 of 284 14 of 20 38 of 47 148 of 311 15 of 18 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 164 of 324 50% 71 of 204 89 of 112 4 of 8 134 of 290 25 of 27 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 42 of 80 52% 39 of 77 3 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 13 of 25 52% 8 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 42 of 79 53% 24 of 56 3 of 6 15 of 17 34 of 69 8 of 10 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 31 of 65 47% 7 of 31 23 of 31 1 of 3 25 of 57 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 58 50% 17 of 42 5 of 7 7 of 9 29 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 32 of 68 47% 14 of 44 16 of 20 2 of 4 27 of 61 0 of 0 5 of 7
4 Edson Barboza 35 of 79 44% 24 of 64 1 of 2 10 of 13 35 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 47 of 90 52% 24 of 63 22 of 26 1 of 1 42 of 85 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Edson Barboza 30 of 55 54% 22 of 45 2 of 2 6 of 8 27 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 41 of 76 53% 18 of 47 23 of 29 0 of 0 28 of 63 13 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo sees this as a razor-thin striking match where youth vs experience is the key factor. He believes Sodiq's speed and youth will give him a slight edge over the 37-year-old Barboza, who is still technical but may have slowed. He notes that if it were a well-rounded MMA fight he'd lean experience, but as a striking match he favors the younger fighter. He plans to just watch rather than bet, calling it even money.

"I'm going to go with sadique YF to be just a little faster just a hair ahead and I think that's going to matter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO in the third round. He notes that Edson Barboza is 37 years old and cutting to featherweight, which is taxing. He worries about Barboza's durability and cardio in a five-round fight, while Yusuff is younger and has power. He expects Yusuff to finish late as Barboza fades.

Yusuff by KO in round 3
"I think it's a late finish here for Yousef third fourth or fifth I'm going to say Yousef does officially knock him out I'll say third round there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza, emphasizing his consistent high-level competition and ability to still perform at an elite level. He highlights Barboza's leg kicks, left hook, and durability, noting that he has never slowed down despite many wars. Cody questions Yusuff's durability and wrestling ability to get Barboza down, and believes Barboza's experience and power will prevail.

"I gotta go dogger pass in this Main Event"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

The host picks Sodiq Yusuff but is hesitant due to the long layoff and herniated disc issues. He notes Yusuff's power and patience, expecting him to land a big shot as Barboza slows down with age. However, he dislikes the minus 170-180 price and prefers to pass on betting. He predicts Yusuff by knockout.

"give me Yousef and Yousef by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza as the underdog, citing his elite striking, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Barboza's ability to land big shots and his consistent performance despite age. Paul is concerned about Yusuff's durability and lack of high-level wins, and believes Barboza's volume and power will be too much.

Bet Edson Barboza at +142
"I just bet Edson Barboza while you were talking cuz I was just like I had a one uh one plus 142"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru leans towards Edson Barboza over Sodiq Yusuff, calling it a close 50/50 fight. He cites Barboza's momentum, size advantage (4-inch reach, taller), and experience in main events. He questions Yusuff's chin, noting he got wobbled by Arnold Allen, and his long layoff due to spinal surgery. He also thinks Yusuff's win over Alex Caceres was mostly low kicks, which won't work against Barboza. However, he expresses frustration that underdogs often win in nonsensical ways, showing low confidence.

"I'll go Ed some baroza over sadique yusf just think Edson babos has got a bit of momentum right now"
KO (knee) R1 2:37 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 16 of 37 43% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 1 34 of 47 72% 182 of 209 4 of 4 100% 0 0 11:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 19 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 1 14 of 18 77% 47 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 7 of 9 77% 78 of 83 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:41
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 2 of 14 14% 8 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 0 13 of 20 65% 57 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 16 of 37 43% 3 of 17 6 of 12 7 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 34 of 47 72% 28 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 19 57% 2 of 5 4 of 8 5 of 6 11 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 14 of 18 77% 10 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 7 of 9 77% 6 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 7
3 Bryce Mitchell 2 of 14 14% 1 of 11 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 13 of 20 65% 12 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
One will rarely ever find a more perfect example of a striker vs. grappler battle, when the highlight-reel aficionado Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC) squares off with unbeaten submission artist Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith is on the call for this intriguing matchup at 145 pounds, and the men do not bothering to touch ‘em up before engaging. Mitchell throws a low kick, and Barboza is right there to return fire with a much heavier kick. Barboza attacks with another leg kick, and he backs away when Mitchell walks him down. Barboza sits down an inside leg kick, and just a few strikes in, Mitchell’s lead leg is already changing color. Mitchell gives chase, walking through another low kick, and he circles away as Mitchell tries to corner him. Mitchell aims a single kick to the body, and Barboza strings together a couple punches and a thudding low kick. Mitchell tries to grab Barboza but is out of range. Barboza scoots out of the way, and as he backs off, he gets cracked by a sudden right hand that sets him down. Barboza shakes off the cobwebs as “Thug Nasty” bears down on him, and he scoops up his foe’s legs and sets him down to the mat. In Barboza’s guard, Mitchell softens up the body with short punches, and he postures up to stack Barboza up when Barboza looks to open his guard and get offensive with it. From very close range, Mitchell thumps down a pair of elbows, and he uses effective top pressure to keep Barboza stuck with his neck on the wall and his back on the mat. Body to head goes Mitchell as he works Barboza over with light but constant strikes. Barboza tightens his guard, only to find an elbow zooming at his face, and he takes it flush and keeps absorbing punishment from below. Mitchell looks to sit up and drop down heavier blows, and as he does, the Brazilian kicks off and explodes back to his feet. Keeping a safe range, and hopping out of the way of a takedown entry from Mitchell, Barboza jumps around and scores a big leg kick. Missing with a spinning back kick, Barboza then chases after his man and gets off a right hand right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
The featherweights are quick to get after it to start the second stanza, and Barboza blasts Mitchell’s inside calf. Although he gets a couple off, he leaves his leg out a little too long and has it snagged mid-air. From there, Mitchell hits a quick double, setting the Brazilian flat on his back on the open mat. Barboza keeps his guard tightly closed, and Mitchell does not mind, as he racks up control time and has his ground strike totals add up. Mitchell sits up every so often to elbow Barboza in the face, and then flattens him back down and punches him in the side. One such elbow slashes Barboza’s left eyebrow open, and it begins to bleed instantly. Barboza scoots his way to the fence, but Mitchell will not let him up. Smith calls for them to work, and Mitchell obliges with a powerful elbow from on top. Barboza tries to push off and scramble, but the smothering top control of the Arkansan has him nullifying Barboza. When Mitchell attempts to pass to mount, Barboza is able to buck him of momentarily. Barboza looks to stand up with the fence behind him, and as he does, Mitchell drags him right back down from behind. Barboza recovers position to get his guard back, but “Thug Nasty” is nasty with his ground-and-pound as he batters Barboza and slides over to three-quarter mount. Mitchell clubs Barboza with several right hands to the bloodied eye, and a small pool of crimson forms beneath Barboza’s head. Mitchell settles for half guard, where he pounds on Barboza until the last five seconds of the round. Barboza manages to kick Mitchell off again, and Mitchell lords over him until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
The last round begins as Barboza appears to have a fire lit under his backside from his corner. Instead of throwing kicks, Barboza starts swinging heavy hands. Mitchell goes up high with a kick, and his foot bumps into Barboza’s shoulder and Mitchell falls to his back. Barboza does not oblige climbing into his guard, and he lets Mitchell stand up so he can slug it out with him. Barboza ducks a jumping switch kick, and he throws a right hand that Mitchell ducks perfectly. “Thug Nasty” nails a double, putting Barboza down to the canvas far away from the cage wall. Barboza closes up the guard, and Mitchell is happy as a clam in this position as this keeps him safe from any power strikes that come at him. In an effort to change things up, Barboza sets up a triangle choke from his high guard, and Mitchell lifts him in the air and slams him in the mat to break the leg grip. Mitchell comfortably lowers himself back in the guard, with sporadic punches on the bloody eye of his foe, until he stands up and stacks Barboza up. Barboza tries to kick off the hips, but he does not have the power to get Mitchell off of him any longer. Barboza scrambles and turns to set up a leg lock, but when this fails, Mitchell secures three-quarter mount with Barboza on his side. Mitchell begins to let a series of left hands go as Barboza cannot block his face, so the Brazilian twists and yanks his arm free but continues to get pounded by Mitchell. “Thug Nasty” starts to make things nasty again as he moves to half guard and starts raining down elbows. A few more strikes from the undefeated fighter put a stamp in this performance, and he will likely keep that 0 and put himself in line for big opportunities in the near future.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but admits he doesn't love the pick and will root for Barboza. He notes that Mitchell's only path is takedowns and control, and that Barboza has 78% takedown defense. However, he compares it to Khabib vs Barboza where Khabib had success with relentless takedowns. He thinks Mitchell's grappling is good enough to win a decision.

"i'm gonna pick bryce here i don't love the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win, likely by submission in the third round. He notes that Mitchell's relentless takedown game and top control will be key, as Barboza has historically struggled against wrestlers like Khabib and Kevin Lee. Brady acknowledges Barboza's striking advantage but believes Mitchell will neutralize it by taking him down repeatedly. He mentions that Barboza is 36 and may not keep up with Mitchell's pace. Brady also notes that Mitchell has shown improvement in his grappling, as seen in his wins over Andre Fili and Charles Rosa.

Mitchell by submission in round 3
"i'm gonna take him to win by i'm going to say submission actually in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody believes Mitchell has the exact style that causes Barboza problems: relentless pressure, wrestling, and grinding. He references the Amir Albazi fight as a template for how to beat Barboza by taking him down and controlling him. Cody acknowledges the striking disparity but trusts Mitchell's wrestling and strength to get the takedowns and avoid Barboza's power.

"i think bryce mitchell has the exact template the exact style that causes barbossa problems historically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi is confident in Bryce Mitchell, citing his relentless takedown style. He argues that Mitchell will shoot takedowns from the opening bell and keep shooting until he gets them down, unlike Makwan Amirkhani who backed up. He references Kevin Lee's blueprint of walking Barboza down and taking him down, and notes that Barboza struggled to get back up. He believes Mitchell's composure in the Felder fight (where he was reversed but stayed calm) bodes well. He predicts Mitchell will dominate via ground and pound and win a decision, possibly a submission.

"bryce mitchell is going to come out here take down edson barboza hold him down land some ground and pound possibly find a sub but most likely come out here and get this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Barboza's striking, especially his leg kicks and power, is something Mitchell hasn't dealt with. Mitchell's path to victory is grappling, but Barboza has solid takedown defense and submission defense. The bigger cage helps Barboza maintain distance. Barboza can win by decision or even knockout if Mitchell gets reckless. The later the fight goes, the more Mitchell might land takedowns, but Barboza's experience should carry him.

"i do like barboza as a dog in the spot right i know he's had moments in the past where he's lost fights due to grappling i'm just not sure if bryce can replicate a kevin lee type of wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul is skeptical of Mitchell's competition, noting he has fought low-level opponents and struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Bobby Moffitt). He argues Barboza has fought elite competition and has underrated takedown defense, citing Khabib going 4-for-13. Paul sees this as a coin flip and prefers the plus money on Barboza, believing Mitchell could get lit up if he can't secure takedowns.

"plus 130 to me in a fight that again man i it could go either way yeah i'll roll the dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza, trusting Mitchell's relentless grappling and tough chin. He acknowledges Barboza's KO power and speed, predicting Mitchell may get dropped early but will wear on Barboza with takedowns and pressure. He references Barboza's cardio issues and Mitchell's ability to set up takedowns with strikes. He predicts a third-round arm triangle submission after taking mount.

method: submission (arm triangle), round: 3
"i'm going to go the third round arm triangle sub from bryce mitchell"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (punches) R3 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 60 of 117 51% 70 of 128 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Giga Chikadze 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Giga Chikadze 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 21 of 27 77% 31 of 38 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 33 of 95 34% 15 of 70 10 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 60 of 117 51% 31 of 80 16 of 22 13 of 15 56 of 113 0 of 0 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 10 of 26 38% 4 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 17 of 43 39% 6 of 27 5 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 19 of 56 33% 8 of 41 6 of 10 5 of 5 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 22 of 47 46% 10 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 6 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Giga Chikadze 4 of 13 30% 3 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 21 of 27 77% 15 of 20 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze

Round 1
The moment we’ve all been waiting for has arrived, with respect to those participating on the 29th season of TUF. Two powerful, flashy strikers with eerily similar striking stats toe the line when Barboza (22-9, 16-9 UFC) faces Chikadze (13-2, 6-0 UFC). For Barboza, he can cement his place as a contender at featherweight; for Chikadze, he can announce himself to the world as a legitimate top-tier 145er. Referee Jason Herzog is holding down the fort for this one, and gloves are not touched before they are traded heavily and in high intensity. The first strike of the match comes from Chikadze, who lands a leg kick. Barboza returns fire with his own kick, and the featherweights are coiled and ready to strike. Barboza starts to walk Chikadze down, backing him up into the fence, and he is forced to try to check a quick leg kick. Barboza checks a body kick with a high knee, but an inside chopping kick lands. When Barboza fires off a leg kick, it gets checked as well. Chikadze goes high with a kick that brushes past Barboza’s head, and the Brazilian looks surprised as it zooms at him. Chikadze leaps in the air with a check flying knee, and Barboza just sees it coming in time to avoid it. When Barboza has a calf kick checked, he fires off another that does not get blocked. Barboza looks to feint his way in and he blocks a high kick and checks a body kick with his quick reflexes. Barboza wings an overhand left, and Chikadze is barely able to get out of the way lest it lop his head off. Chikadze spins with a kick to the body, and Barboza marches through it and lands a few punches. Barboza trips Chikadze on the way when Chikadze tries to press the action, and he stands back defiantly as Chikadze aims a flying knee. When Barboza connects with a leg kick, Chikadze points at his leg and then fires off two high kicks. Chikadze drills the body with a kick, and he might have Barboza smarting as Barboza chomps down on his mouthpiece and throws winging punches. Chikadze strides after him confidently, landing a few and evading the counters. Chikadze rips the body with a kick, and he targets the liver and points at Barboza. A high kick and an axe kick attempt from the Georgian conclude the kick-heavy round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze

Round 2
The featherweights trade calf kicks initially, and Barboza is the one to try to throw hands as he swings a right hand. He times a Chikadze flying knee to kick him up the body, and he stands tall to score when Chikadze lands. Chikadze circles around the outer edge of the fence to chop at the Brazilian with kicks, and Barboza comes up short when trying to give chase. Chikadze connects with a left hand and a liver kick, and Barboza gives chase as he absorbs a stunning right hand. Barboza shakes it off and keeps pressuring Chikadze, where he lands a trio of punches on the way in. Chikadze lets loose a high kick and a liver kick in rapid succession, and the kick to the side keeps finding its home. Barboza scores a calf kick that makes the Georgian changes stances, and Chikadze whips up a high kick with his lead leg. Barboza rips the body with a right hand, and he checks the vaunted “Giga kick” with a high knee block. The Brazilian continues his assault on the body with big hooks and kicks, and Chikadze backs off right into an overhand right. Barboza plods forward as Chikadze appears to be slowing to a degree, allowing him to cut Chikadze off and set up strikes. Barboza nails the lead leg with a heavy kick, and Chikadze tries to return fire with an axe kick but he gets jabbed for his effort. Chikadze gets off a pair of punches as Barboza walks him down like a Brazilian Terminator, and Barboza keeps on drilling punches to the body. Chikadze spams a few axe kicks that hit nothing but his foe’s guard, and Barboza stabs his toes to the midsection. Barboza sweeps the leg, and Chikadze comes back at him with a single leg kick before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barboza

Round 3
Barboza takes the center of the cage and doubles up on a jab, and Chikadze is ready to fire back but misses the mark when Barboza ducks. Barboza sticks out a few more jabs as Chikadze backs away, and the Georgian scores a kick to the knee when Barboza tries to come at him. Chikadze blasts Barboza with a huge right hand, and Barboza is suddenly on the ropes as Chikadze walks him down to try to do damage. Barboza’s eye is busted up, and Chikadze charges with a barrage of punches. A few right hands knock Barboza back, and Barboza is in trouble and falls over to the ground. Chikadze looks to finish the job as he lands a few punches from on top, and Barboza holds on tight to clear the cobwebs. Barboza looks for a heel hook from his back as he is hurt badly, and when he sits up in it, the Georgian latches on to an anaconda choke out of nowhere. Barboza walks off the cage to break the grip of the choke, and he powers his way to his knees and then back to his feet.
Barboza is still on baby deer legs when he gets back up, and Chikadze takes note this and drops the hammer with a trio of punches that sends Barboza crashing back down to the canvas. Herzog has seen enough, sensing that Barboza may be out even if he is able to amble back to his feet.
“Ninja” successfully puts himself on the map with a wild performance over a perennial contender, and he thanks his opponent for the opportunity and the tough challenge. In his post-fight interview, Chikadze says he would be glad to fill in if a competitor in the featherweight title fight falls through, but if not, that there is a certain Hawaiian in his sights – Max Holloway. Should that striker’s delight come to fruition, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Giga Chikadze def. Edson Barboza R3 1:44 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.

Angelo likes the less more on monkey knife fight.
"my pick is honestly edson barboza i think the leg kicks are the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.

already bet Edson Barboza at -110; won't have highest investment
"I already bet edson barbos so I got him at 110 minus 115 is fine"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.

Jacob got Chikadze at +100; he placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
"i actually got giga for plus 100 when i saw plus 100"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.

under 4.5 rounds -130, Barboza by KO +270, Barboza round 3 +1100, round 4 +1450, round 5 +2075
"I ever so slightly lean on the barboza side here i think that his volume is ultimately going to catch up to giga and i think that giga will start to slow down the later that this fight goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.

"if edson gets out of the first two rounds in this fight i like him even more so i'm in on edson barbosa"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.

Barboza by decision, calf kicks to be a factor
"i think edson barboza is a way better striker way more experience under the big lights he's been in main events before"
WIN vs Shane Burgos
KO (punches) R3 1:16 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 80 of 180 44% 80 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 1 98 of 191 51% 98 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 0 41 of 83 49% 41 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 39 of 82 47% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 1 18 of 26 69% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 80 of 180 44% 41 of 131 24 of 33 15 of 16 80 of 179 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 98 of 191 51% 51 of 134 14 of 17 33 of 40 96 of 189 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 33 of 79 41% 20 of 65 10 of 11 3 of 3 33 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 41 of 83 49% 19 of 55 5 of 5 17 of 23 41 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 40 of 83 48% 19 of 55 14 of 21 7 of 7 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 39 of 82 47% 23 of 63 8 of 10 8 of 9 39 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 7 of 18 38% 2 of 11 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 18 of 26 69% 9 of 16 1 of 2 8 of 8 16 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.

by KO round 3
"I'm gonna take burgos to win here i'm gonna take him to win by um i'll say i'll say third round knockout for shane burgos"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.

"i'm obviously a burgos guy first and foremost like what he brings to the table these tigers shulman guys i mean universally across the board they're doing some excellent stuff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.

mentions Burgos's underrated kicks and Barboza's chin issues
"i got to go with burgos here because of the pressure the output and the non-stop forward pressure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.

Burgos by decision
"i'll go burgos and i'll go with burgers by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.

"the pick would be burgos but it's like you know this is an all-action fight between two strikers"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.

Bet on a draw (prop bet mentioned)
"i'm going with hurricane shane burgos"
Billy Quarantillo - Fight History
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
KO (punch) R3 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 99 of 158 62% 114 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Billy Quarantillo 0 97 of 237 40% 108 of 249 3 of 11 27% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 39 of 57 68% 40 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 37 of 88 42% 37 of 88 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
2 Cub Swanson 0 40 of 69 57% 54 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 105 36% 49 of 117 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
3 Cub Swanson 1 20 of 32 62% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Billy Quarantillo 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 99 of 158 62% 74 of 127 13 of 18 12 of 13 95 of 154 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 97 of 237 40% 65 of 188 20 of 32 12 of 17 91 of 222 6 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 39 of 57 68% 23 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 37 of 88 42% 22 of 66 6 of 10 9 of 12 37 of 87 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 40 of 69 57% 35 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 36 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 105 36% 31 of 91 6 of 12 1 of 2 32 of 91 6 of 14 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 20 of 32 62% 16 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 22 of 44 50% 12 of 31 8 of 10 2 of 3 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.

Considering over 1.5 rounds and plus 3.5 spread on Cub Swanson.
"For pick purposes... I am going to lean Billy but there's two bets... I'm going to hammer the over cuz I do think this fight's going to go to decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.

"I'll take Billy Q here I'll take Billy q and I think he wins this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.

"I got Billy it feels like I'm going to have to trust Billy a little more this week than I'd like to."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to pick him too. If nothing else, I'm going to do it for the old man out there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.

"I'm goingon go with Cub Swanson for the upset"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.

"I'm going to go with the underdog in this one I'm going to go with Cub Swanson I think he's got more knockout upside early."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"cornello has the Relentless and smothering grappling style to cause Cub Swanson a lot of trouble obviously Swanson will be the better Striker here but look for this corano to crowd his space eventually jumping on the back of Cub …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.

"I have a little bit of concern with Billy I I mean I guess the one thing that keeps his Pace off is when his opponent's able to wrestle him and I really don't think Cub Swanson's going to be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.

body shot TKO in round two
"I'm going to lean towards Cub Swanson I could even see a body shot TKO I know I predict a body shot TKO nearly every card but this is the one I'm predicting for this card body shot TKO Cubs …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to take Cub. I just don't think Quarantillo is a good enough wrestler for me to pick him to out grapple Cub."
LOSS vs Youssef Zalal
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:50 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Youssef Zalal 0 10 of 50 20% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Billy Quarantillo 0 33 of 56 58% 37 of 62 2 of 2 100% 2 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Youssef Zalal 0 8 of 40 20% 15 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Billy Quarantillo 0 31 of 49 63% 33 of 52 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:33
2 Youssef Zalal 0 2 of 10 20% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 2 of 7 28% 4 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Youssef Zalal 10 of 50 20% 8 of 36 0 of 8 2 of 6 10 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 33 of 56 58% 18 of 36 5 of 9 10 of 11 28 of 49 0 of 1 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Youssef Zalal 8 of 40 20% 6 of 28 0 of 6 2 of 6 8 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 31 of 49 63% 17 of 31 5 of 8 9 of 10 26 of 42 0 of 1 5 of 6
2 Youssef Zalal 2 of 10 20% 2 of 8 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Quarantillo (-148), Zalal (+124)

Round 1
Keeping the main card pushing, the hyper-aggressive Quarantillo (18-5, 6-3 UFC) will welcome kickboxer-turned-wrestler Zalal (13-5-1, 3-3-1 UFC) back to the Octagon after a year and half away. While Quarantillo has battled three top-25 names in that span, Zalal has crushed three adversaries in the Sparta Combat League promotion—the last coming at the end of a night where he won a boxing match, then a kickboxing match, and tapped a kickboxer in the MMA finals. Speed will be the name of the game in this featherweight encounter, and referee Herb Dean will try to keep up. Gloves are tapped, and Zalal moves right to the middle of the cage to plant a kick on the lead leg of the Floridian. When Quarantillo comes forward to throw hands, Zalal skirts on the outside and lands another slapping calf kick. Zalal pokes out a jab and has a third leg kick find its home, and he is able to dance away from “Billy Q.” Zalal gets off kicks on the inside and out of his foe’s leg, and he snaps a jab out to follow. Quarantillo again telegraphs his blitz, and Zalal dodges everything but a leg kick and a power right hand. Zalal rolls with it and strafes from side to side, not letting Quarantillo find his pattern yet. Quarantillo steps in with a knee that brushes his past his target, and he reaches out with a right hand. Zalal keeps moving and lands a knee to the chest, and Quarantillo chases him and walks into a punch to the ribs and a low kick. Quarantillo lumbers in with a right that whiffs, and Zalal rings his bell with a right hand as he delivers kicks to several targets. Zalal hops in and out, landing another one-two as Quarantillo shakes his head. Quarantillo crashes forward and results in a clinch, and Zalal scrambles away and points at the ground as he would prefer to strike. Zalal takes a right hand on the temple and drops to a knee, and he fires back and gets Quarantillo’s attention with a flurry of punches. The right hand from Zalal tags Quarantillo another time, nails him with a knee and he hits a trip that takes “Billy Q” off his feet. Zalal moves into the guard, and he hacks down with elbows and prevents Quarantillo from getting his butterfly hooks in. Quarantillo rolls for an armbar, and Zalal sees it coming and turns to the right side and batters him with punches and elbows. Zalal steps over to take the back, and he hooks up a body triangle and hunts for a standing rear-naked choke when Quarantillo stands. Quarantillo falls to the ground, with the grip on his chin and not under it, and he toughs it out and winces in pain. Zalal crushes with the squeeze until Quarantillo punches his way out of it, and he smacks Quarantillo on the side of the head until the one-sided round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 2
Quarantillo starts the round aggressively, winging overhand rights, and tries to counter kicks with this big right hand. Zalal slides from side to side, landing a front kick and a few punches until he closes in to hit a trip and toss Quarantillo to his back. Zalal ignores a rubber guard moment from his opponent so he can punish Quarantillo with punches and hammerfists, and he stacks Quarantillo up and thwarts an armbar as Quarantillo turns to his knees. Zalal hangs on from behind again, and he drags a standing Quarantillo back down and locks down a body triangle.
Zalal hunts for a rear-naked choke, and he wriggles his forearm beneath the chin. When the choke locks down, Quarantillo quickly knows that this is it for him, and he surrenders with taps on the arm.
This is a stellar performance for the returning Zalal, who ended a seven-fight streak in the Octagon of going the distance by running roughshod over a solid featherweight in Quarantillo.

The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Billy Quarantillo R2 1:50 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo is very confident in Billy Quarantillo, placing a full unit bet on him at -146. He believes Quarantillo's constant forward pressure and high output will overwhelm Zalal, who prefers to point fight from the outside. He expects the line to rebound to -300 and advises jumping on the current value.

full unit bet at -146
"I love Billy Q in this spot I've got a full unit I bet a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume (almost 8 strikes per minute) compared to Zalal's low volume (2.75). He notes Zalal is durable and has good cardio but will be outworked. He thinks Quarantillo will drown Zalal with activity and win a decision.

"I think Billy Q is going to outwork him he outworks pretty much everybody I don't think Z has the stopping power to to to make him pay for how hitable he is as well so yeah should just be …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, durability, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Zalal's wrestling could be neutralized by Quarantillo's scrambling and constant forward pressure. Cody notes that Zalal is returning after a layoff and may not be ready for Quarantillo's relentless style.

"I gotta go with Billy Q."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Youssef Zalal, believing he can pick Quarantillo apart with his striking and avoid getting drawn into a brawl. He notes Zalal has never had cardio issues and has won rounds against top competition. He thinks Zalal's maturity and composure will be key, but he would have liked better odds.

"I do kind of think that zah can can pick him apart and not get you know kind of uh goated into that that brawl that dog fight that Billy Q likes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal is the better striker with good combinations and cardio. He should be able to outwork Quarantillo on the feet and avoid takedowns. Quarantillo is a slow starter who relies on pressure and grappling, but his takedown success rate is low. Zalal's improved aggression could be key, but there is concern about Quarantillo's clinch and submission threats. Zalal by decision is the pick.

"I'm going to go with zal here I think zal grinds this one out with his striking stays safe enough in the clinch situations... getting the win on the scorecards and pulling off the upset."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Quarantillo's volume and the value at minus 140. He believes Zalal's path to victory via takedowns is difficult because Quarantillo fights to get back up and throws volume. Paul sees Quarantillo as the clear play.

"Billy Q minus 140 seems more than fair as far as I'm concerned so it's Billy Q for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal as an underdog over Billy Quarantillo, believing Zalal is a better striker with good cardio and reach. He criticizes Quarantillo's slow movement and poor standup. He thinks Zalal will finish Quarantillo by TKO, catching him coming in with straight punches.

TKO win
"I'm taking Yousef zow over Billy quarantillo... he finishes Billy quarantillo by TKO"
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 100 of 188 53% 169 of 270 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:51
Damon Jackson 0 67 of 173 38% 75 of 184 3 of 13 23% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 15 of 35 42% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 28 of 62 45% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:13
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 40 of 69 57% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 48 27% 15 of 50 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:18
3 Billy Quarantillo 0 45 of 84 53% 77 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Damon Jackson 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 100 of 188 53% 45 of 124 49 of 57 6 of 7 58 of 140 42 of 48 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 67 of 173 38% 45 of 139 19 of 31 3 of 3 53 of 148 10 of 15 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 28 of 62 45% 19 of 48 8 of 13 1 of 1 23 of 52 1 of 2 4 of 8
2 Billy Quarantillo 40 of 69 57% 8 of 32 28 of 33 4 of 4 16 of 41 24 of 28 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 48 27% 5 of 36 7 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Billy Quarantillo 45 of 84 53% 29 of 65 16 of 18 0 of 1 31 of 68 14 of 16 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 26 of 63 41% 21 of 55 4 of 7 1 of 1 24 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.

"Billy is ultimately gonna be the pick here but I'm gonna need him to throw out a ton of volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.

Quarantillo by KO in round 2
"I like Billy Q to break Damon Jackson and give Damon Jackson his sixth finish loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.

Quarantillo over 72.5 significant strikes
"quaranteo over 72.5 significant strikes on prize picks uh looks right for the taking to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is conflicting.
"I'm picking Billy Q."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.

"I think there's some value on Damon Jackson... I'm gonna pick him outright to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.

odds comment: surprised to see Jackson around +150/+160
"I was kind of surprised to see Jackson around that plus 150 plus 160 range I think he's deciding this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.

"in a war of attrition Billy Q generally wins and uh and I think he's gonna do that here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.

line movement from -178 to -185; suggests value on Damon Jackson if odds reach +165 or +170
"I will lean Billy Q to get the job done here"
LOSS vs Edson Barboza
KO (knee) R1 2:37 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."
TKO (knees and punches) R2 4:30 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 87 of 151 57% 127 of 194 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:20
Alexander Hernandez 0 48 of 94 51% 59 of 105 2 of 6 33% 1 0 4:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 48 39% 45 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 32 of 60 53% 38 of 66 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:53
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 68 of 103 66% 82 of 120 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Alexander Hernandez 0 16 of 34 47% 21 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 87 of 151 57% 61 of 123 17 of 18 9 of 10 52 of 109 21 of 22 14 of 20
Alexander Hernandez 48 of 94 51% 33 of 70 5 of 9 10 of 15 34 of 74 8 of 11 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 19 of 48 39% 9 of 36 6 of 7 4 of 5 17 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 32 of 60 53% 21 of 41 3 of 6 8 of 13 19 of 42 7 of 9 6 of 9
2 Billy Quarantillo 68 of 103 66% 52 of 87 11 of 11 5 of 5 35 of 64 19 of 19 14 of 20
Alexander Hernandez 16 of 34 47% 12 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Billy Quarantillo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Quarantillo (-165), Hernandez (+140)

Round 1
The abbreviated early prelims wrap up with a featherweight contest as high-volume striker Quarantillo (16-4, 4-2 UFC) welcomes ex-lightweight mainstay Hernandez (13-5, 5-4 UFC) to his lower division. Both men are searching for a key win, and one man should achieve it in the next 15 minutes or less. They touch gloves as referee Chris Tognoni watches on, and Quarantillo lashes out with a low kick. Hernandez responds in kind, and Quarantillo walks him down with a one-two. Hernandez backs off to fling another low kick, and he blocks a swinging punch that whizzes at his head. Hernandez plods forward and walks into a punch, and he gets off a body kick up close. “The Great Ape” connects with a low kick, and Quarantillo catches a subsequent body kick but gets popped in the chops before setting it down. Quarantillo jabs to the head and body, while Hernandez swings for the bleachers. A low kick from Quarantillo gets checked, and Hernandez defends it but falls to his seat. Hernandez recovers well enough to stand, and he pursues a double and plants Quarantillo on his back. Quarantillo tries to push off the fence without grabbing it, and he traps Hernandez’ neck to slow him down. Quarantillo attempts to sit up, and Hernandez belts him in the face a few times before changing levels to set Quarantillo back down. The Floridian defends with his back on the wall as Hernandez doggedly goes for takedowns, and Hernandez is warned for fence grabs. Quarantillo looks for a counter trip, but Hernandez greets him with a clean elbow. Quarantillo breaks free but is bloodied up from the blows, and he finds more coming at his face. Quarantillo draws blood with a few right hands, slicing open the cheek of “The Great Ape.” Hernandez explodes into action, leaping forward to tackle Quarantillo over, and he lands to immediately go after an arm-triangle choke. Hernandez sits up with one single elbow, and this rips Quarantillo’s forehead wide open. Blood immediately pours from the wound, but Quarantillo is not defeated, as he throws his legs up to possibly set up a triangle choke. Hernandez ignores the sub setups to work Quarantillo over with ground-and-pound, opening the cut a little further. Hernandez lets him back up, and the two slug it out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on the cut on Quarantillo’s head, but it is not a fight-ending gash over his left eye. Quarantillo starts off the round aggressively, and he throws a head kick and follows it with a few punches. When Hernandez replies with a couple punches, Quarantillo jumps with a kick and gets grabbed midair and pushed to the ground. Hernandez gets on top, but he cannot keep Quarantillo there, as Quarantillo fights his way back up and separates. The two featherweight trade jabs, and Hernandez changes levels but gets kneed in the chin by the taller Quarantillo. Hernandez absorbs a few more knees and is once more warned for fence grabs, and he elects to isolate Quarantillo’s right leg and lift him in the air. Quarantillo keeps his balance and stays upright with his back to the wire, and he breaks off and pushes out several jabs. Hernandez meets him with jabs of his own, and he gets swept with a low kick. When he stands, Quarantillo hunts for a guillotine choke, and Quarantillo goes after a double to change things up. When that fails, Quarantillo pursues a single-leg entry, and he abandons this to land body shots and tag Hernandez up top. A few punches appear to surprise Hernandez, who desperately shoots for a takedown. The momentum has shifted, as Quarantillo stands him up and marks him up with a long series of punches. Quarantillo leaps at him with a superman punch, and he tees off on Hernandez with a combination before securing a single and placing Hernandez on his seat. Quarantillo pushes Hernandez over and slams his fist on the side and back of his head, and Tognoni thinks about stopping it for the foul but lets it play on as Quarantillo adjusts his trajectory. Hernandez muscles his way back to his feet, but Quarantillo is battering him with punch after unanswered punch.
Hernandez is barely on his feet and out of gas, and Quarantillo breaks a clinch to smash Hernandez in the face with an elbow. Quarantillo lays into a spent Hernandez with a knee that doubles him over, and he continues his tornado of knees, fists and anything else at his disposal until Tognoni rescues Hernandez from the unrelenting beating.
Quarantillo turned up the pace and put Hernandez away in impressive fashion, while reminding the division that he is still very much a factor.

The Official Result
Billy Quarantillo def. Alexander Hernandez R2 4:30 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as an underdog, noting that the odds (Quarantillo nearly a 2-1 favorite) feel off. He highlights Hernandez's superior athleticism, wrestling, and striking defense, and believes Quarantillo may have rust after a year off. However, he admits it's a low-confidence pick and plans to watch for prop bets like the plus 3.5 round bet on Hernandez's scorecard.

Looking at plus 3.5 round bet on Hernandez's scorecard (BetOnline exclusive).
"I think I like him in The Underdogs fight here like Billy's very good he sets an incredible Pace but he is a year removed from his last fight and I'm hoping there's going to be some Rust there so …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his high volume and pressure that will break Hernandez. He notes Hernandez has a history of gassing and crumbling under adversity, and cutting to featherweight may worsen his cardio. He expects Quarantillo to weather an early storm and finish Hernandez in the second round by knockout.

Quarantillo wins by second round knockout
"I think early on in that first round Hernandez probably does have some success... but as the fight goes on I think Billy's gonna break him... give me corntilla to win by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his cardio, durability, and pace. He thinks Hernandez is explosive early but fades, and that Quarantillo will break him down in later rounds. He suggests live betting Quarantillo after round 1, as the line will improve. He expects a finish or dominant decision.

Live bet Quarantillo after round 1
"I'm gonna be way better off betting this after first round whereas Billy will be it'd be competitive and I can get close to even or Billy might lose and I can get slight plus money but the real fight …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his massive output advantage. He notes Hernandez has never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a UFC fight and tends to fade after the first round. Quarantillo, by contrast, threw 383 strikes in his fight with Shane Burgos. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's early power and explosiveness, but believes if Quarantillo can survive the first round, he will drown Hernandez with volume and pressure. He considers betting on Quarantillo but is wary of Hernandez's early finish potential.

Considering a bet on Quarantillo due to output difference.
"Billy Q attempts 383 strikes and he lands 196 of them... if Billy can drag this to those deep Waters I got Billy Q in that type of fight over Alex Hernandez all day"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Lock is confident in Billy Quarantillo, citing his style of dragging opponents into deep waters and drowning them with pace and pressure. He believes Alexander Hernandez relies on physical gifts but his technical abilities haven't caught up, and the weight cut to featherweight for the first time in nine years is a major concern. Lock thinks Quarantillo's durability will allow him to survive Hernandez's early finishing threat, and then he will finish Hernandez late. He sees Quarantillo as a top-15 gatekeeper with longevity in the UFC.

"I'm more so on the Billy Q side here man and obviously on the betting uh line he's a minus 160 minus 170 favorite but you're getting him pretty much how to pick and price here against uh Alexander Hernandez …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul leans Quarantillo, noting his cardio and ability to withstand damage. He thinks Hernandez is dangerous early but fades. He is not interested in the minus 160 line early, preferring to wait for live betting. He sees Quarantillo taking over in round 3.

Billy Quarantillo round 3 (+1300)
"Billy round three I see like plus 1300 out there like that's gonna get my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo by third-round TKO over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Hernandez will have a tough weight cut to featherweight and has a history of crumbling under adversity. Quarantillo is known for giving everyone a tough fight and has survived dangerous opponents like Spike Carlisle and Shane Burgos. He expects Quarantillo to overcome an early tough round and finish Hernandez later.

"I'm gonna go Billy quarantulo third round TKO Alexander Hernandez"
LOSS vs Shane Burgos
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 193 of 288 67% 232 of 329 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Billy Quarantillo 0 164 of 349 46% 196 of 383 0 of 14 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 54 of 81 66% 68 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Billy Quarantillo 0 63 of 131 48% 81 of 150 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Shane Burgos 0 82 of 114 71% 85 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Billy Quarantillo 0 54 of 130 41% 57 of 133 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Shane Burgos 0 57 of 93 61% 79 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 47 of 88 53% 58 of 100 0 of 10 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 193 of 288 67% 133 of 219 32 of 37 28 of 32 162 of 252 30 of 35 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 164 of 349 46% 129 of 301 28 of 39 7 of 9 145 of 322 19 of 27 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 54 of 81 66% 37 of 61 8 of 9 9 of 11 53 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 63 of 131 48% 49 of 109 11 of 17 3 of 5 54 of 120 9 of 11 0 of 0
2 Shane Burgos 82 of 114 71% 55 of 84 14 of 17 13 of 13 71 of 100 11 of 14 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 54 of 130 41% 43 of 116 8 of 11 3 of 3 52 of 125 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 57 of 93 61% 41 of 74 10 of 11 6 of 8 38 of 73 18 of 19 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 47 of 88 53% 37 of 76 9 of 11 1 of 1 39 of 77 8 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Angelo picks Shane Burgos, but acknowledges Billy Quarantillo as a live underdog. He notes Burgos's high volume, body work, and chin, but also his high strike absorption rate. He believes Burgos's takedown defense (89%) will be tested, but that Burgos has shown he can get back up. He thinks the longer the fight goes, the more Burgos's body shots will pay off.

"i very narrowly am going to side with shane here because even though billy has the better striking stats at this point in his career shane's chin is still holding up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Big Brady picks Shane Burgos to win by decision. He notes Burgos's striking volume and power, while Quarantillo is hittable and may struggle to get takedowns. Brady acknowledges Burgos's durability and takedown defense, but also his recent knockout loss and short turnaround. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling won't be effective against Burgos, and the fight will be a war with Burgos winning on the feet.

win by decision
"i'll go decision i'll say shane burgos does win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody picks Burgos, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He believes Burgos will keep the fight standing, chip away, and win a decision. He notes Quarantillo's cardio and toughness but doubts his power to hurt Burgos. He recommends Burgos by decision at +175.

Burgos by decision (+175)
"i got to go with shane burgos and if i'm trying to improve that line i go with burgos by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo as a plus 170 dog, fading Shane Burgos because Burgos fights with his hands down and hasn't learned his lesson. Levi believes Quarantillo is a dog who will capitalize on that weakness, and that Burgos's last fight against Edson Barboza was uncomfortable to watch. He notes that Quarantillo leveled up after the Gavin Tucker loss and ran through Gabriel Benitez. Levi expects a dogfight where Quarantillo thrives.

plus 170 dog
"give me billy q for the upset"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Jacob picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his grappling skills as a black belt and his body shots. He believes Burgos is no slouch on the ground and can handle Quarantillo's grappling. He thinks the fight could turn into a grappling match, but Burgos is well-rounded. He likes Burgos all the way, though he is unsure about the DraftKings price.

"i'm shane all the way you know at 9 000 i don't know if i love that 9 000 mark for for draftkings"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos by decision, believing his technical striking and movement will outclass Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Burgos' chin and durability should hold up. He considered Burgos' decision prop at +200 but thinks it's a sweat.

"i like shane burgos here i think his chin holds up his durability holds up and he showcases that he's the much better technical striker"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul agrees with Cody, seeing Burgos as the better striker. He notes Quarantillo needs to get the fight to the mat to win, but Burgos's takedown defense should keep it standing. He doesn't love the price but thinks Burgos wins.

"i was kind of seeing it the same way didn't really love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The Guru picks Shane Burgos, citing his reach advantage and improved grappling defense. He believes Burgos will pick Quarantillo apart at range with body shots and leg kicks, and that Quarantillo lacks the power to KO Burgos. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision, with Burgos winning two rounds clearly.

"I'm gonna go shane burgos here."
TKO (punches) R3 3:40 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 1 57 of 110 51% 67 of 122 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:50
Gabriel Benítez 1 100 of 156 64% 179 of 259 3 of 7 42% 1 0 8:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 12 of 26 46% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:15
Gabriel Benítez 1 25 of 38 65% 60 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:30
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Gabriel Benítez 0 53 of 79 67% 72 of 104 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:58
3 Billy Quarantillo 1 22 of 39 56% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Gabriel Benítez 0 22 of 39 56% 47 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 57 of 110 51% 38 of 89 13 of 15 6 of 6 44 of 89 6 of 9 7 of 12
Gabriel Benítez 100 of 156 64% 73 of 126 20 of 23 7 of 7 61 of 107 11 of 12 28 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 12 of 26 46% 7 of 21 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 7
Gabriel Benítez 25 of 38 65% 17 of 30 6 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 17
2 Billy Quarantillo 23 of 45 51% 14 of 34 7 of 9 2 of 2 18 of 37 5 of 8 0 of 0
Gabriel Benítez 53 of 79 67% 39 of 62 11 of 14 3 of 3 35 of 58 8 of 9 10 of 12
3 Billy Quarantillo 22 of 39 56% 17 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3 17 of 33 1 of 1 4 of 5
Gabriel Benítez 22 of 39 56% 17 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 29 2 of 2 8 of 8
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Cody is confident in Gabriel Benítez, citing his physical strength, advanced striking, and leg kicks. He believes Billy Quarantillo's lack of strength and power will be exposed, as seen in the Gavin Tucker fight. Cody thinks Benítez's pressure and durability will overwhelm Quarantillo, and he expects a finish or a clear decision.

under 2.5 rounds (plus money)
"I think the line was missed really i mean if you could get gabriel benitez at that opener at plus 115 that was the move."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Paul is picking against his favorite Billy Quarantillo for the first time. He notes that Benítez is a brick wall with superior strength and striking, and that Quarantillo's cardio and heart won't be enough against a physically stronger opponent. He expects Benítez to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I hate picking against him this will be officially the first time that i do so if he proves me wrong well that's billy doing his thing."
LOSS vs Gavin Tucker
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 106 of 166 63% 123 of 183 7 of 13 53% 0 0 5:14
Billy Quarantillo 0 84 of 178 47% 136 of 233 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 38 of 63 60% 43 of 68 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Billy Quarantillo 0 33 of 69 47% 44 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
2 Gavin Tucker 0 53 of 76 69% 58 of 81 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 69 55% 43 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Gavin Tucker 0 15 of 27 55% 22 of 34 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:58
Billy Quarantillo 0 13 of 40 32% 49 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 106 of 166 63% 68 of 122 31 of 37 7 of 7 71 of 122 32 of 41 3 of 3
Billy Quarantillo 84 of 178 47% 45 of 127 33 of 44 6 of 7 55 of 138 29 of 35 0 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 38 of 63 60% 17 of 41 17 of 18 4 of 4 23 of 47 15 of 16 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 33 of 69 47% 18 of 48 12 of 18 3 of 3 25 of 58 8 of 11 0 of 0
2 Gavin Tucker 53 of 76 69% 39 of 59 12 of 15 2 of 2 36 of 53 15 of 21 2 of 2
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 69 55% 20 of 48 16 of 19 2 of 2 25 of 56 13 of 13 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 15 of 27 55% 12 of 22 2 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 22 2 of 4 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 13 of 40 32% 7 of 31 5 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 24 8 of 11 0 of 5
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by decision. He likes Quarantillo's high output, durability, cardio, and ground game. He notes Tucker's 40% takedown defense and that Rick Glenn was able to take him down four times, which bodes well for Quarantillo's wrestling.

"give me corn to you by decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel is high on Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and cardio. He questions Tucker's chin and heart, and thinks Quarantillo will walk him down and possibly finish him. He notes Quarantillo is in his prime and has paid his dues.

possible finish
"i'm gonna go with billy q uh to come out here and possibly finish gavin tucker but regardless i'm picking uh bq to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is the more technical striker with better speed and should be able to outpoint Quarantillo. Quarantillo's pressure style may be neutralized by Tucker's movement and body work. Tucker's jiu-jitsu is also high level, so he can hold his own on the ground. The line is a pick'em, but Tucker is the better all-around fighter.

Tucker via decision; over 1.5 rounds
"i think gavin is just a better better all-around fighter... i'll go with gavin tucker to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo in a close fight, noting Quarantillo's youth, size, range, and submission defense. He believes Quarantillo gets better as the fight goes on and will win a 29-28 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Gavin Tucker's grappling but thinks Quarantillo can survive the first round and take over.

"i'm gonna go with billy quarantilo getting the job done building as the fight goes on earning himself a 29-28 close competitive unanimous decision"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."