vs
+205 -225
UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 5"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 4"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Sam Hughes
4.41 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.12 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Istela Nunes
4.28 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.07 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Sam Hughes
Moneyline
FanDuel +205
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1600
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +310
Istela Nunes
Moneyline
BetWay -225
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
FanDuel +105
Sam Hughes - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 107 of 231 46% 111 of 237 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:35
Sam Hughes 0 77 of 144 53% 91 of 160 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 40 of 85 47% 41 of 87 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
Sam Hughes 0 33 of 43 76% 37 of 47 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 30 of 63 47% 32 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Sam Hughes 0 22 of 37 59% 27 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 37 of 83 44% 38 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Sam Hughes 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 107 of 231 46% 52 of 163 45 of 55 10 of 13 72 of 188 34 of 42 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 77 of 144 53% 47 of 110 13 of 17 17 of 17 65 of 132 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 40 of 85 47% 18 of 59 16 of 19 6 of 7 29 of 70 11 of 15 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 33 of 43 76% 13 of 23 9 of 9 11 of 11 30 of 40 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Piera Rodríguez 30 of 63 47% 15 of 46 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 48 12 of 14 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 22 of 37 59% 16 of 29 2 of 4 4 of 4 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 37 of 83 44% 19 of 58 16 of 21 2 of 4 26 of 70 11 of 13 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 22 of 64 34% 18 of 58 2 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 59 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez but is hesitant. He thinks Rodríguez's takedowns will be the key, as Sam Hughes's takedown defense has not been great. However, he warns that Las Vegas judges may not value wrestling, and if Hughes is busier on the feet, she could get the decision. He would not bet Rodríguez and prefers Hughes as a dog.

"But is going to be the pick. Sam is a great dog. That plus three and a half bet a literal guarantee."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision, citing her improved cardio and wrestling since their first fight. He notes her elite takedown numbers (4.5 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy) and believes she will mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees the rematch playing out similarly to the first, with Rodríguez winning rounds 1 and 2 and possibly not slowing down in round 3.

"give me Piera Rodriguez. Give me Piera Rodriguez to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Cody picks Hughes as a dog, citing her toughness, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Rodríguez's takedowns don't lead to control. He thinks Hughes can outwork her and win a decision.

"Sam He at the very least, you know, she's going to fight for your dollar because she's rugged, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Connor also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing that she was consistently ahead in the first fight and has the speed and technical edge. He notes that Hughes's wins come against inexperienced fighters, while Rodríguez is more well-rounded. He sees the rematch as unnecessary but expects a similar outcome.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

James picks Sam Hughes as an underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes Hughes' improved takedown defense and cardio, and believes she can win by outworking Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's grappling advantage but thinks Hughes can edge a split decision.

"I'm going to pick Sam Hughes. F it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Sam Hughes has improved since their first fight, particularly in strength and conditioning, and that her pressure and volume will be key. He notes that Hughes has better takedown defense now and can get back to her feet quickly, negating Rodriguez's clinch advantage. He expects Hughes to outdamage Rodriguez and win a decision, citing that rematches often play out differently and Hughes is the one who has improved more.

"I'm going to go Hughes here. I like her as the dog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul leans Rodríguez, citing her wrestling and previous win over Hughes. He thinks she can get takedowns and control. He acknowledges it's close but favors the wrestler.

"Minus 150 seems oddly fair for something like the biggest question kind of answered in that first fight, was it not?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Piera Rodríguez

The Guru picks Piera Rodríguez to win the rematch, believing she will improve her striking and that her grappling will be more recognized by the judges this time. He notes that in the first fight, Rodríguez outgrappled Hughes but lost due to striking, and he thinks Rodríguez's youth gives her more room to improve. He predicts a split decision or 29-28.

"I'm actually going to take her to win this time around... Split decision, maybe a 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Zane picks Piera Rodríguez, noting that she was faster and stronger in the first fight and controlled the grappling exchanges. He believes Hughes struggles against fighters with better athleticism and that Rodríguez's speed and technical edge will again be decisive. He acknowledges a chance for Hughes if she comes in more aggressive, but sees Rodríguez as the likely winner.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
WIN vs Shauna Bannon
Submission R2 1:58 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shauna Bannon 0 13 of 38 34% 42 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 21 of 46 45% 55 of 84 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shauna Bannon 0 7 of 21 33% 33 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:09
2 Shauna Bannon 0 6 of 17 35% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 8 of 17 47% 10 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shauna Bannon 13 of 38 34% 5 of 20 4 of 9 4 of 9 12 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 2
Sam Hughes 21 of 46 45% 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 21 3 of 5 14 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shauna Bannon 7 of 21 33% 3 of 10 2 of 6 2 of 5 6 of 18 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 13 of 29 44% 11 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 14 2 of 3 9 of 12
2 Shauna Bannon 6 of 17 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 2
Sam Hughes 8 of 17 47% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Shauna Bannon vs. Sam Hughes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hughes (-310); Bannon (+250)

Round 1
After a week to catch our collective breaths, the UFC sallies forth to Paris. As part of its annual French fight card series, local fans will be treated to a bevy of European athletes with decent matchups. It all comes to a head with French fighters in the main and co-main attractions, but before then, there are 11 more fights to get through. We commence the festivities with the sole women’s match on the card, one that will play out at strawweight. Bannon (7-1, 2-1 UFC) will look to keep her momentum going as she clashes with .500 UFC fighter Hughes (10-6, 5-5 UFC) who may be better than her resume appears. The two 115ers will be joined in the Octagon by referee Lukasz Bosacki, who clocks them in as they rush towards one another without a fist bump in sight. It’s on with the show.
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They both strike at the same time to greet one another, and Hughes lands cleaner and gest Bannon’s attention right off the bat. Reddening up the Irishwoman’s nose with her fists, she prompts Bannon into shooting in for a takedown. Hughes turns the tables against her and tackles her to the mat, and various chants in French boom throughout the surprisingly populated building. When Bannon closes up her guard and slows Hughes down, members of the audience start wooing rudely. Bosacki calls for more action before long, and the crowd starts to turn on the strawweights as the grind has been embraced two minutes in. Bannon lifts her right leg up for a rubber guard, but Hughes completely ignores it and retains heavy chest pressure.
As little else happens besides a few Hughes punches, Bosacki calls for them to do something more. “Sampage” listens this time around, and she slugs Bannon with several powerful blows. Bannon’s eyes go wide as she takes fire, and she grabs hold of Hughes to slow her down. Hughes looks to pass guard, and Bannon uses upkicks to push off her foe’s chest. The upkicks do not slow Hughes, who steps over to a crucifix position and starts hammering “Mama B” with elbows. Bosacki asks for Bannon to fight back as Hughes thumps Bannon up with her elbows, and Bannon desperately bucks to get her arm free and drags Hughes back to half guard. Hughes explodes over to take the back briefly during a scramble, and she settles for side control so she can beat down Bannon further. When Bannon sits up, Hughes tries for a no-hook rear-naked choke. The Irish fighter is able to escape the choke and work to her feet with the wall behind her, and Hughes knees her in the face and pops her with a left hand before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hughes

Round 2
The ladies get right to business, with Bannon knowing she dropped the round and starting off aggressively. Kicks from the Irish athlete fly to all targets, as she sets up one high by starting on the lead leg. Hughes shrugs it off and counters with an overhand right, and a bit of a mouse develops under her left eye. Hughes is tough as nails as she catches a head kick and slings Bannon to the mat, where she punches her foe all the way down to the canvas. Hughes sits comfortably in an open guard, and Bannon hooks her fingers inside of her opponent’s gloves. Bosacki warns her for the foul, and Hughes punishes her for this by bashing her with heavy ground-and-pound. “Sampage” works her way to side control, where she hunts for another crucifix position—perhaps emulating the recent success of middleweight champ Khamzat Chimaev—and this makes Bannon scramble like a madwoman. Hughes allows her to turn because she has set a trap. When Bannon posts of her hands to sit up, her neck is exposed and Hughes knows it.
Hughes snatches up a textbook rear-naked choke, looping both hooks in and securing her grip beneath the chin. Bannon knows her goose is cooked, and she has no choice but to tap out.
The victorious American has performed her first submission—and second finish overall—in the Octagon, while handing Bannon her first stoppage loss as a pro.

The Official Result
Sam Hughes def. Shauna Bannon R2 1:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Angelo is extremely confident in Sam Hughes, calling her his most confident pick on the entire card. He criticizes Shauna Bannon's unorthodox and ineffective striking style, describing her as having low fight IQ and a 'weirdo fight style.' He believes Hughes' relentless pressure, cardio, and grinding ability will overwhelm Bannon, leading to takedowns and forward pressure. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -320 and expects it to go even higher. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"Sam Hughes is my most confident pick on this card. Period. End of story."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Big Brady picks Sam Hughes, noting she is a favorite for the first time in her UFC career. He believes this is her easiest fight yet, citing her pressure, cardio, and pace. He mentions she can mix in grappling but is not willing to bet at -310. He predicts a decision win.

Sam Hughes by decision
"Sam Hughes should be able to win this fight. You know, do the better work pretty much wherever the fight goes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Sam Hughes is a great matchup to expose Shauna Bannon as not a UFC-level talent. He expects Hughes to control the fight from the start with her pressure striking or takedowns and top control, grinding out a decision win.

"I feel like this is a great fight for Sam Hughes to showcase that Bannon is not a UFC level talent."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The Guru picks Sam Hughes because she has a clear method of victory: her wrestling and gritty cardio. He criticizes Shauna Bannon for lacking any standout skill, noting her win over Pujitoma was circumstantial. He expects Hughes to win a close decision by securing takedowns at the end of rounds, which often sways judges in women's MMA.

"I'm going to go with Sam Hughes to win this in the early prelim opener."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano 0 82 of 251 32% 101 of 273 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Sam Hughes 0 76 of 152 50% 146 of 233 3 of 8 37% 1 0 4:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephanie Luciano 0 42 of 104 40% 52 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Sam Hughes 0 35 of 68 51% 42 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Stephanie Luciano 0 18 of 44 40% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 13 of 29 44% 71 of 98 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:19
3 Stephanie Luciano 0 22 of 103 21% 29 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Sam Hughes 0 28 of 55 50% 33 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephanie Luciano 82 of 251 32% 45 of 202 23 of 34 14 of 15 79 of 246 3 of 5 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 76 of 152 50% 43 of 113 15 of 20 18 of 19 69 of 144 3 of 4 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephanie Luciano 42 of 104 40% 21 of 76 13 of 19 8 of 9 41 of 102 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 35 of 68 51% 21 of 48 6 of 11 8 of 9 32 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Stephanie Luciano 18 of 44 40% 9 of 35 7 of 7 2 of 2 16 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 1 of 1 4 of 4 9 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Stephanie Luciano 22 of 103 21% 15 of 91 3 of 8 4 of 4 22 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 28 of 55 50% 14 of 41 8 of 8 6 of 6 28 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Stephanie Luciano over Sam Hughes. He believes Luciano is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and cardio. He notes that Hughes is a pressure fighter but Luciano won't fade early. He also mentions the plus 3.5 round line as a potential value bet on Hughes.

Sam Hughes +3.5 round line
"Stephanie luchano is going to be the pick and honestly if the odds are just who wins this fight I think the odds are correct."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Big Brady picks Stephanie Luciano, noting her excellent cardio and output, which should allow her to maintain pace for all 15 minutes. He observes that Sam Hughes' wins come against opponents who slow down after the first 7-8 minutes, but Luciano won't fade. Brady thinks if Luciano can stuff takedowns, she will pick Hughes apart on the feet. He predicts a decision win but does not like the -225 price.

Luciano by decision
"I like Luciano here... I think she wins a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Yur Medeiros, but with low confidence due to his volatile style and durability issues. He notes that Medeiros is a finisher but has been knocked out. He prefers the under on the fight, expecting a finish. He considers Gilbert Urbina as a dog play because of the high line.

Under 1.5 rounds at -155
"I think I this just feels like unders uh for me whether it's fight doesn't or you know I don't know if that line even still exists but uh if you can find an under two and a half and …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The host believes Luciano's striking advantage will prove decisive, though the fight might be closer than odds indicate. He expects Luciano to land more damage and win on the scorecards.

Hughes is always a dog at plus money
"I believe hu uh Luciano's striking Advantage here will prove prove fo for for her it might play out closer than the odds indicate and Hughes is always a dog when she's uh at this plus money but I still …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul picks Gilbert Urbina as a dog, citing Medeiros's inconsistency and durability issues. He notes that Urbina has a reach advantage and has been off for a while, possibly making improvements. He believes the line is too high and that Urbina has a chance to win, especially if he can avoid early knockout.

"I'm going to take Gilbert or Beina. Strictly a system play. Too big of a line. If one of these big favorites is is is going to do something stupid, it's probably Euros Medic that kind of fights like a, …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano, citing her improved takedown defense after facing an opponent who shot 24 takedowns in her last fight. He notes she's tall for the division with nasty striking, planting her feet when she throws punches. He dismisses Sam Hughes as a 'fraud checker' who has beaten prospects but thinks Luciano's takedown defense and striking will be too much. He also suggests judges might rob Hughes even if she wins, so he's confident in Luciano.

"I'm going to go of Stephanie Luciano I don't think the judges will even let Sam Hughes get another fraud check at women's MMA I just don't think so"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 61 of 144 42% 104 of 199 3 of 10 30% 0 0 4:38
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 97 of 193 50% 139 of 240 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 25 of 66 37% 34 of 79 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:24
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 30 of 70 42% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
2 Sam Hughes 0 25 of 53 47% 34 of 65 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:23
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 41 of 80 51% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Sam Hughes 0 11 of 25 44% 36 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 26 of 43 60% 46 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 61 of 144 42% 45 of 122 15 of 21 1 of 1 50 of 125 11 of 19 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 97 of 193 50% 65 of 147 24 of 38 8 of 8 86 of 179 6 of 9 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 9 of 12 0 of 0 17 of 53 8 of 13 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 30 of 70 42% 19 of 51 7 of 15 4 of 4 26 of 64 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Sam Hughes 25 of 53 47% 19 of 46 6 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 48 3 of 5 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 41 of 80 51% 29 of 66 10 of 12 2 of 2 39 of 77 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Sam Hughes 11 of 25 44% 10 of 22 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 26 of 43 60% 17 of 30 7 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo picks Dudakova but is hesitant because the odds are too high for a close fight. He thinks Dudakova is the better fighter skill-for-skill and expects her to wrestle early, but warns that if she lets Hughes pressure, she could have a tough night. He advises against betting the moneyline and recommends the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; do not bet moneyline
"I'm going to pick Victoria dudova... these odds are atrocious do not bet on Victoria dudova don't touch the money line Hammer the over two and a half"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady acknowledges Sam Hughes is a live dog but thinks Dudakova can go the full 15 minutes without gassing. He notes Hughes has poor takedown defense and striking defense, while Dudakova should do enough to win a close decision. He mentions Dudakova's last poor performance was due to a staph infection on her ass, which should not be a factor this time.

"I'm going to take d toova by decision I think a lot of people are very low on D toova after her last fight against jinu fry and I kind of am as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Cody picks Sam Hughes, citing Dudakova's poor performances, weight miss, and medical issues. He notes that Dudakova has low volume and overrated wrestling, while Hughes has faced better competition and is constantly in your face. Cody thinks Hughes can outwork Dudakova and win a decision. He also mentions that Hughes is always an underdog and fights to the last minute.

"I'll go Sam Hughes as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Daniel leans towards Dudakova, citing her reach advantage, youth, and takedown ability against Hughes' poor takedown defense. He acknowledges Hughes' higher pace but thinks Dudakova can seal rounds with takedowns and win a close decision. He is not fully confident due to Dudakova's greenness.

"I think I'm gonna lean towards uh dudakova to kind of win a a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Hughes is a live underdog if not at a huge physical disadvantage. She should put on a pace and grind out Dudakova, winning at least two rounds on the scorecards.

"I expect her to put on a bit of a pace here and really put dudakova through the grind and at least picking up two rounds here to win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Paul picks Sam Hughes, noting that Dudakova has not impressed and has had weight issues. He thinks Hughes can make the fight ugly and grind out a decision. Paul also mentions that Hughes is underrated and always gives 100% effort. He believes the line is too wide and that Hughes has a good chance to win.

"I think Sam Hughes can make this grimy get up in her face make it ugly make it close."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru picks Victoria Dudakova over Sam Hughes, calling Hughes 'awful' and past her prime. He notes Dudakova is a younger, improving Russian prospect with a win streak, including a win over Maria Silva on the contender series. He expects Dudakova to do enough to win.

"I'm gonna go Victoria dudova she's undefeated... Sam Hughes is just awful"
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 94 of 269 34% 97 of 272 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 83 of 197 42% 88 of 206 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 28 of 88 31% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 19 of 47 40% 21 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 32 of 91 35% 33 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 36 of 75 48% 39 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 34 of 90 37% 35 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 94 of 269 34% 52 of 197 24 of 42 18 of 30 84 of 253 10 of 16 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 83 of 197 42% 40 of 143 17 of 24 26 of 30 80 of 190 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 28 of 88 31% 16 of 65 8 of 14 4 of 9 22 of 78 6 of 10 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 19 of 47 40% 11 of 36 3 of 6 5 of 5 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 32 of 91 35% 18 of 67 9 of 14 5 of 10 29 of 87 3 of 4 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 36 of 75 48% 15 of 53 11 of 11 10 of 11 34 of 70 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 34 of 90 37% 18 of 65 7 of 14 9 of 11 33 of 88 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 28 of 75 37% 14 of 54 3 of 7 11 of 14 27 of 73 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo is very confident in Jauregui, believing the UFC set this up for her to get back on track. He notes her striking and grappling are impressive, and while she was knocked out quickly in her last fight, Sam Hughes doesn't hit as hard. He trusts the process.

"Yasmin yui is going to be the pick very confident in that pick but Sam Hughes has played spoiler before"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Jauregui is the biggest favorite on the card at -500 and that the matchup is favorable. He praises Jauregui's takedown defense and striking, while criticizing Sam Hughes's hittability and toughness. He thinks Jauregui will dominate on the feet and potentially finish Hughes, though he questions Jauregui's chin after being dropped in her last two fights.

Jauregui wins by KO in round 2
"I'm going to take Yasmin hery here I think it's going to be an absolute beat down minus 500 it's scary but maybe she does look minus 500 when it's all said and done so give me asmin hery to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui but is hesitant, calling it the coward's way out. He notes Jauregui's durability is a question mark after being knocked out by Denise Gomes, but her takedown defense held against Lendo. He thinks Jauregui has a massive advantage on the feet and is more interested in live betting.

"I will take the coward's way out I will take yadman oriki as a pick here I think this is a fight that I'm more interested in a live betting perspective"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Hughes will be the best wrestler Jauregui has faced, despite Jauregui's 100% takedown defense rate (only two attempts faced). He thinks Hughes's improvement at Fortis MMA and game planning will allow her to take the fight into deep waters and win on the scorecards, springing a massive upset.

"I think Hughes will be the best wrestler that y has faced and even though yui showcases at 100% takedown defense rate she's only faced two takedown attempts in her three UFC fights thus far I think Sam Hughes has …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Paul leans towards Hughes due to the massive plus price. He notes Hughes is 3-1 in her last four, gritty, and has been using more wrestling lately. He questions what makes Jauregui such a huge favorite, as she hasn't excelled in hard 15-minute fights. However, he admits Hughes isn't a power puncher and if it's a striking affair, Jauregui likely wins.

"I think I might take Sam Hughes if for no other reason then the price tag is just ridiculous"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 12 of 52 23% 52 of 109 2 of 10 20% 3 0 3:42
Jaqueline Amorim 0 46 of 104 44% 107 of 176 1 of 1 100% 0 1 7:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 7 of 25 28% 11 of 34 2 of 2 100% 3 0 3:24
Jaqueline Amorim 0 11 of 25 44% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
2 Sam Hughes 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 11 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Jaqueline Amorim 0 6 of 21 28% 34 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
3 Sam Hughes 0 2 of 21 9% 33 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:01
Jaqueline Amorim 0 29 of 58 50% 60 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 12 of 52 23% 12 of 42 0 of 7 0 of 3 11 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jaqueline Amorim 46 of 104 44% 45 of 101 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 62 6 of 7 21 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 7 of 25 28% 7 of 17 0 of 5 0 of 3 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jaqueline Amorim 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Sam Hughes 3 of 6 50% 3 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jaqueline Amorim 6 of 21 28% 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 5
3 Sam Hughes 2 of 21 9% 2 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jaqueline Amorim 29 of 58 50% 28 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 28 0 of 0 18 of 30
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Sam Hughes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amorim (-245), Hughes (+205)

Round 1
For the third time in five weeks, the UFC is asking its fans to empty their pocketbooks and shell out $80 for a fight card. This event in Miami, with a championship rematch a mere six months in the making sitting atop the marquee, might have something to offer everyone. The now dozen-bout billing begins in the women’s strawweight division, with a match that would be well-suited for an LFA headliner. Unbeaten Amorim (6-0, 0-0 UFC) will make her first walk to the Octagon tonight, where she meets “Sampage” Hughes (7-5, 2-4 UFC). The first fight of the night begins with a touch of gloves in front of referee Andrew Glenn, and it’s on with the show. Amorim introduces herself with a few sweeping kicks, and Hughes dodges or blocks them all. Hughes paws forward a jab, and she is met with a pair of right hooks from the Brazilian. Hughes claims she was poked in the eye, and Glenn does not recognize it so they do not stop. Hughes walks her opponent down, but she gets countered repeatedly by Amorim. Hughes presses forward with jabs outstretched, and Amorim shoots in from afar with a takedown. Hughes defends from her back with an armbar, but Amorim laughs this off and steps over to a dominant position. As Hughes scrambles, Amorim takes her back and briefly considers an armbar setup. Hughes fights it off and explodes back to her feet, and she elbows her foe in the face before defending another level change. Amorim grabs hold of a single-leg takedown and lifts Hughes off the ground to toss her to the mat like a sack of potatoes. Hughes instinctually keeps her legs high for a potential triangle choke, and Amorim slides through and allows Hughes to move to her knees so she can take the back. Briefly flirting with a kimura lock from the back, she instead gets both hooks in and hunts for a rear-naked choke. Amorim secures the body triangle and strangles Hughes, but the tough Hughes grits it out and fights the hands to defend from the choke. Hughes stands up, and Amorim remains on her back and wrenches on the neck. Amorim locks it down, and Hughes fights the hands again to defend the choke and does so by getting her fingers in the gloves. Amorim switches to a palm-to-palm grip as Hughes falls to her back, and once again Hughes survives while still firmly entrenched in the danger zone. Amorim retains her tight body triangle around the waist, and she abandons the back take to step over into mount and set up an arm-triangle choke. Hughes scrambles and gets slugged in the chops, and she manages to stand up. The round ends as she chases Amorim across the cage.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amorim
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Amorim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amorim

Round 2
Amorim has reached the second round for the first time as a pro, and Hughes appears energized as she pushes forward and drives Amorim to the wall. Amorim jumps to guard, and Hughes backs off and lets her stand up. Amorim swings with a body kick, and Hughes lays into her with a pair of punches. Amorim rushes in for a takedown, and Hughes bowls her over and moves into the guard. Amorim sets up the body triangle off her back, keeping Hughes from dropping down ground-and-pound. Hughes looks to free her hands to bust the Brazilian in the face, but Amorim is clinging tightly and looking to sneak her arm under Hughes’ knee. Hughes wrenches out her left hand to bop Amorim in the nose a few times, and Amorim flails with her legs and pushes Hughes off of her to force the standup. Hughes strides forward with a few punches, and a takedown effort from Amorim is again thwarted by “Sampage.” Hughes makes Amorim stand up again, and she dings her with a few punches. Amorim falls to her back, and Hughes complains to Glenn about grabbing the glove. Amorim fastens the body triangle with Hughes on top, and she postures up in the guard and rains down punches. Amorim turns to pursue a leglock, and Hughes rips it out and stands. Amorim is slow to follow her up, seemingly running out of steam, and she pursues a desperation takedown that is easily stuffed. The crowd rains down boos as Amorim overcommits to a single, and she turns it to a double-leg and ends up pulling guard instead. Amorim goes after a heel hook, but Hughes slides the leg free and stands up. Hughes decides to pursue a single of her own, and she dumps Amorim on her back and holds her there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hughes

Round 3
Everyone and their brother in Hughes’ corner informs her that her opponent is exhausted. The third round opens with a glove touch, and Hughes is the immediate aggressor to pick up right where she left off. Amorim flails feebly with her fists, and Hughes ignores them and gets off a right hand. “Sampage” fires off a high kick, and Amorim flops to her back and looks to tie Hughes up. Hughes escapes, and the Brazilian stands and backs up against the cage. Hughes punts her in the face with a front kick, and Amorim moves to her back again and puts her legs around the waist. Hughes opens up with heavy hammerfists and elbows, and Amorim tries to fight back but is getting into a failed slugfest from her back. Hughes settles down when Amorim gets the body triangle around the waist again, and Amorim turns to a side in hopes of setting up a two-on-one wrist lock. Hughes continues to fight off that kimura setup, all while punching the body and otherwise frustrating the unbeaten fighter. Hughes does not slow her methodical offense, and a long series of left hands land on the jaw. Amorim paws back every time to little effect, and she turns over with the body triangle still in play for an armlock. Amorim is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Hughes does not like this and opens up with some heavy ground-and-pound. Hughes bails on the position and stands up, and a fatigued Amorim stands and backs away. Hughes pushes out a front kick and a few punches, and she has Amorim on the ropes and totally spent. Amorim leans forward for a takedown, but has no energy to secure it, so Hughes pushes her to her seat and pounds on her. Hughes pushes off and stands, and Amorim wings a big right hand and follows with a front kick. Amorim gets caught with a few punches, drops down for a takedown, and the match comes to a close. Depending on the scoring of Round 1, a draw could theoretically be in play.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hughes (29-28 Hughes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hughes (29-28 Hughes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hughes (29-28 Hughes)

The Official Result
Sam Hughes def. Jaqueline Amorim via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Angelo sees Jaqueline Amorim as the clear winner due to her undefeated record, all stoppage wins, and superior grappling with blast double takedowns and a wild array of submissions. He notes she also has legitimate one-punch power. However, he is cautious about betting because Sam Hughes is extremely tough and has UFC experience, which could lead to a fade if Amorim doesn't finish early. He suggests an under 2.5 rounds play might be the way to go.

under 2.5 rounds
"this should be Jacqueline morum all the way she should absolutely dominate this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Big Brady is confident in Jaqueline Amorim due to her elite BJJ credentials and six first-round finishes. He notes that Sam Hughes has poor takedown defense (47%) and has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents. He believes once Amorim gets the fight to the mat, it will be over quickly via submission. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I like amarine to win this fight I'd like her to not only win this fight I like her to finish this fight in the very first round with some type of submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Cody picks Amorim but is slightly hesitant due to the price. He notes Amorim's submission skills are elite and that she finishes fights quickly. He points out Hughes' poor takedown defense and believes Amorim will get the fight to the ground and submit her. Cody says he won't parlay her but thinks she wins. He mentions the under on the fight time as a potential play.

Under 12.5 minutes on PrizePicks
"I'll pick amarim"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hughes. He notes that Amorim is a great prospect but very raw, and Hughes has shown she can break opponents who expect to win quickly.

"I think those odds should get a lot closer. I think Emory, she's a great prospect, but is a very raw fighter at this point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Jacob agrees that Amorim should dominate, highlighting her methodical takedown timing and excellent top control. He notes that Sam Hughes's toughness may actually work against her because she scrambles to get back to her feet, which opens up submission opportunities for Amorim. He is concerned about Amorim's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, but believes she is good enough to get the job done early.

"I think Jaclyn should come in and dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Amorim is a BJJ black belt with all six wins by first-round finish. Her grappling should overwhelm Hughes, who has good cardio but may struggle to stop takedowns. The line at -230 is too wide for a debutant, but Amorim's submission threat is real. I expect her to lock up a submission after getting the fight to the ground.

submission prop
"I think ultimately the strong wrestling or at least strong grappling game of amram is going to allow her to get the position she needs here against Sam Hughes so that she can go on to eventually get a submission …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Paul picks Amorim, believing her BJJ is elite and that she will take Hughes down and submit her. He notes Hughes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by many opponents. Paul thinks Amorim's grappling is a level above and that she will progressively improve position. He acknowledges Amorim's striking is unproven but expects her to get the fight to the ground quickly. He suggests live betting Hughes if the fight goes past the first round.

Under 12.5 minutes on PrizePicks; live bet on Hughes after round 1
"I am going to take her I think that uh stylistically this fight probably hits the ground if it does hit the ground it's amrams all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Jaqueline Amorim

The MMA Guru predicts Jaqueline Amorim will win by first-round submission via rear-naked choke. He envisions a scramble early on where Amorim gets Hughes against the cage, executes an inside or outside trip to get on top in half guard, then takes the back as Hughes scrambles and sinks in the choke. He is confident in this outcome, describing the sequence in detail.

first round submission, rear-naked choke
"I'm going with Jacqueline Amore in my first round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Zane picks Hughes because Amorim is raw and has never been outside the first round. He notes that Hughes has been building a functional game and is aggressive with intelligent pressure. Zane also mentions that Amorim's grappling is not complex and she may not get clean takedowns.

"I'm going to pick Sam Hughes here personally."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 83 of 160 51% 89 of 166 5 of 11 45% 0 0 1:56
Sam Hughes 0 69 of 155 44% 78 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 19 of 53 35% 20 of 54 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:17
Sam Hughes 0 21 of 56 37% 22 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 34 of 51 66% 37 of 54 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:16
Sam Hughes 0 17 of 43 39% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 30 of 56 53% 32 of 58 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Sam Hughes 0 31 of 56 55% 36 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 83 of 160 51% 32 of 101 42 of 48 9 of 11 47 of 122 33 of 35 3 of 3
Sam Hughes 69 of 155 44% 55 of 135 11 of 15 3 of 5 55 of 140 14 of 14 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 9 of 13 3 of 5 14 of 47 4 of 5 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 21 of 56 37% 18 of 50 2 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 1
2 Piera Rodríguez 34 of 51 66% 13 of 29 17 of 18 4 of 4 19 of 35 13 of 14 2 of 2
Sam Hughes 17 of 43 39% 12 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 30 of 56 53% 12 of 37 16 of 17 2 of 2 14 of 40 16 of 16 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 31 of 56 55% 25 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 49 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez, believing she is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling. He notes that Sam Hughes has evolved into a grappler and needs takedowns to win, but Piera has good takedown defense and inflicts damage in scrambles. He calls it a no-bet situation because Sam is live, but he might bet Sam Hughes by decision (+3.5 points) if the odds drop.

No bet on moneyline; considering Sam Hughes +3.5 points if odds drop
"I am going to pick Bahia here I think she's gonna stuff some takedowns inflict the damage but this is a no bet situation because Sam Hughes is definitely live"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision. He highlights Rodríguez's improved grappling and powerful striking, and notes that Sam Hughes has poor striking defense and takedown defense. He believes Rodríguez is a bad stylistic matchup for Hughes, who relies on grinding but will struggle to get takedowns. Brady expects a competitive fight but sees Rodríguez winning clearly on the feet and possibly with takedowns.

"I like Rodriguez here I like Rodriguez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez, citing her striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Hughes has been winning with wrestling against weak opposition, but Rodríguez should be able to keep the fight standing and out-strike her. He is hesitant due to Rodríguez's cardio concerns.

"I'm going with uh greasy pierra."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Rodríguez is the better striker with power and leg kicks, and her wrestling is on par with Hughes. Hughes relies on pressure and wrestling, but Rodríguez should be able to stuff takedowns and win the striking exchanges. The host expects a decision win for Rodríguez and likes the decision prop at +105. However, the odds are slightly wide, and Hughes could be live.

Piera Rodríguez by decision +105
"I do think that uh Pierre is the side here she'll land the better shots she'll have the better moments and I think that should be enough for her to get her hand raised via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul picks Rodríguez but is hesitant. He notes Rodríguez has good takedown defense and a striking advantage, but her cardio and ground game are question marks. He thinks Hughes could tire her out with wrestling, but ultimately Rodríguez should win.

"I'm gonna go with Pierre Rodriguez I think that the takedown defense is good enough the Striking is a slight Advantage."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez, noting her undefeated record and experience in main events. He believes she has too much power for Sam Hughes and will drop her in the first round, lose the second, and win the third on pace. He predicts a 29-28 decision, citing Rodríguez's sting in her shots and ability to withstand pressure.

prediction: 29-28 decision
"I'm still gonna go 29-28 Pierre Rodriguez with a little bit too much sting in her shots in the first two rounds to allow the pressure of Sam Hughes to take effect"
WIN vs Elise Reed
TKO (elbow and punches) R3 3:52 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 17 of 41 41% 70 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 43 of 65 66% 130 of 161 4 of 7 57% 0 0 11:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 16 of 35 45% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 15 of 31 48% 23 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:38
2 Sam Hughes 0 1 of 6 16% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 13 of 15 86% 55 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:49
3 Sam Hughes 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 15 of 19 78% 52 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 17 of 41 41% 10 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 37 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elise Reed 43 of 65 66% 33 of 51 6 of 10 4 of 4 7 of 19 6 of 10 30 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 16 of 35 45% 9 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elise Reed 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 4 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 17 6 of 10 3 of 4
2 Sam Hughes 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elise Reed 13 of 15 86% 10 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 15
3 Sam Hughes 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elise Reed 15 of 19 78% 14 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Angelo picks Sam Hughes based on her grappling performance in her last fight, where she showcased takedowns and control time. He notes that Elise Reed was taken down four times in two fights, making the takedown the difference. However, he acknowledges it's a close fight and that Elise Reed is better than people think. He is hesitant because both women are coming off career-saving wins.

"if sam does what she did in her last fight i think she wins this fight forward pressure high volume and takedowns i'm gonna go sam hughes here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Big Brady picks Elise Reed because she is the better striker with improved takedown defense. He notes Sam Hughes is a walking punching bag with poor striking defense, and Reed should win on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Reed but says he is not betting on this fight.

"give me a lease read at least read by decision there's no way i'm betting on this fight but i'll take read by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Cody picks Reed confidently, citing her superior striking, footwork, and cardio. He notes Hughes' lack of offense and tendency to rely on opponents gassing. He believes Reed will outpoint Hughes from range and avoid takedowns, winning a decision.

"i actually don't mind elise reed and minus 165 like okay i think there's some there's some other fights on this card i am way more on the fence about that have worse price tag so i'm willing to give …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Sam Hughes

The host picks Sam Hughes as his free pick of the night at +145. He believes Hughes's path to victory involves grappling, either takedowns or control time against the cage. He expects Hughes to implement her grappling and grind out a win. He is confident enough to bet one unit on her.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"my free pick is sam hughes one unit plus 145"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Reed's kicking game and cardio should be too much for Hughes. He notes Hughes' only win came against a gassed opponent and that Reed won't tire. He is confident in Reed.

"i like where your head's at on this card i like where your head's at this time around i think you're gonna be good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Elise Reed

The MMA Guru believes Elise Reed is better on the feet and can mitigate damage on the ground, working her way back up. He thinks Sam Hughes will get takedowns but the damage from Reed's striking will be too much. He predicts a razor close 29-28 decision for Reed.

"i think she's better than sam hughes i think she's better on the fee i think even when she does get taken down she doesn't really get dominated on the ground"
Istela Nunes - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loma Lookboonmee 0 32 of 76 42% 111 of 170 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:34
Istela Nunes 0 36 of 62 58% 51 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loma Lookboonmee 0 15 of 47 31% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 22 of 37 59% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:09
2 Loma Lookboonmee 0 10 of 16 62% 23 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Istela Nunes 0 7 of 14 50% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
3 Loma Lookboonmee 0 7 of 13 53% 62 of 74 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:40
Istela Nunes 0 7 of 11 63% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loma Lookboonmee 32 of 76 42% 12 of 41 13 of 25 7 of 10 28 of 70 4 of 4 0 of 2
Istela Nunes 36 of 62 58% 7 of 26 11 of 13 18 of 23 33 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loma Lookboonmee 15 of 47 31% 3 of 23 6 of 15 6 of 9 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 22 of 37 59% 2 of 11 5 of 6 15 of 20 21 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Loma Lookboonmee 10 of 16 62% 6 of 9 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 7 of 14 50% 1 of 7 4 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Loma Lookboonmee 7 of 13 53% 3 of 9 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 2
Istela Nunes 7 of 11 63% 4 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lookboonmee (-590), Nunes (+390)

Round 1
One more matchup on the card will play out in the 115-pound category, and it comes between Thai striker Suphisara (9-3, 6-2 UFC)—who will be referred to as “Loma Lookboonmee,” or just Lookboonmee, going forward—and Brazilian Nunes (6-5, 1 NC; 0-4 UFC), a muay thai aficionado in her own right. Referee Chris Tognoni signals the start of the match, and the women answer his call by touching gloves first. Lookboonmee leads off with a kick that slaps under the armpit, and when Nunes returns fire, Lookboonmee is ready to chuck one more kick at her. Lookboonmee chips at the lead leg, staying able to bounce back and forth to slide in and out of range. Nunes kicks at her, and Lookboonmee jams her in the gut with a kick. Lookboonmee pushes off the chest with the ball of her foot, and continues to probe with kicks until she wraps one up around the neck. Nunes comes back firing, but the Thai is able to out-speed her 90 seconds into the match. While Nunes is keeping it honest and trying to mirror Lookboonmee’s activity, she looks for power as she sits down on a right hand that the Thai just dodges. Lookboonmee pushes off, and her finger may or may not have scraped the eye. The replay called by Tognoni is not clear, so they get back to fighting. They proceed to trade kicks one after the other, strike totals fairly close with Lookboonmee likely having the edge. She scores kicks from both legs, and her strikes are taking Nunes’ fists almost entirely out of the equation. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right hand, and they crash together in an exchange. Nunes kicks low and Lookboonmee belts the body a few times with her shin to audible effective. A third is even lower, and she puts out a one-two to further stick it to her opponent. Lookboonmee catches a kick and looks for a takedown, and Nunes easily pushes her over and climbs into top position. The Thai looks for a sweep when stuck on her back, as Nunes is more interested in controlling for the moment. Lookboonmee is warning for striking the back of the head, and she pushes the Brazilian off of her. Judges might have their hands full with that round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee

Round 2
The strawweights clap hands to re-engage, and they stand right in kickboxing range and let their hands and feet go. Lookboonmee strikes first, last and heavier, but Nunes gets off her own shots. The second and third of a trio of front kicks from Nunes push Lookboonmee away each time Lookboonmee advances. The Thai hammers a low kick and ducks down when Nunes swings at her, standing up as the top of her head bangs into Nunes’ chin with no warning or protest. Nunes tries to wrap her opponent up and leverage her down, and the result is a prolonged clinch. Nunes grabs the cage wall several times, and Tognoni reaches around repeatedly to slap Nunes’ hand. If you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin. The successful Dundasso allows Nunes to suddenly surprise her adversary by dropping for a heel hook. Lookboonmee busts her in the chops with one right hand to get out of the submission, and Nunes adjusts and shifts the limb to the other side for an inverted heel hook setup. Lookboonmee stays calm as a cucumber while in this ankle lock-type position, as Nunes does not have the right angle or leverage to complete it. Nunes squeezes hard on the foot, and Lookboonmee stacks her up and places herself in the lion’s mouth as Nunes sits up to hunt for a kneebar. Nunes chains the kneebar to a heel hook, and the Thai sits up and stands. Nunes keeps a grip on the ankle, and Lookboonmee punches her a few times before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee

Round 3
The ladies bump fists to get going, and they get back to action with striking. It does not take Nunes long to try to take the fight down, and eventually in search of what would be her first career submission. The Thai looks to counter Nunes, and she hits a trip to put Nunes on her back. The action largely stalls out when the two women go horizontal, as it is not where they normally compete. Nunes keeps tightly wrapped around Lookboonmee’s shoulder, and Tognoni asks for more activity. When inaction persists, Tognoni stands them up. They proceed to rush at one another and get up close with knees until Lookboonmee completes a throw to dump the Brazilian to her back again. Lookboonmee steps over to hold on from half guard and flatten Nunes on her side. Nunes hooks her toes in the fence to try to improve her position, and Tognoni slaps her toes. Lookboonmee, meanwhile, jams down a number of left hands and elbows to stay busier than the last time she was on top. With 10 seconds to spare, Nunes explodes to her feet, and she hunts for a takedown that is not completed before the conclusion of the match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)

The Official Result
Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Angelo highlights Loma's evolution from a pure striker to a mixed martial artist with improved takedowns and effective grappling. He notes that Loma has out-wrestled opponents like Sam Hughes and has nasty striking and great speed. He believes Loma will out-grapple and out-strike Istela Nunes, who is on a four-fight losing streak and has poor grappling. Angelo calls Loma 'as close to a short thing as you're going to get' in women's MMA.

"I think Loma absolutely runs here she's minus 400 so 4 to 1 favorite I mean it is what it is I think she's as close to a short thing as you're going to get especially in women's MMA."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Big Brady is confident in Loma Lookboonmee, citing Istela Nunes's long layoff, four-fight losing streak, and questionable ground game. He notes Nunes has solid striking early but fades, and her takedown defense is poor. He expects Lookboonmee to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Nunes in the second or third round.

second round submission
"I'm going to go lomma luk Bui to win this fight I think she gets a second round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Lookboonmee is coming off a long layoff but her Muay Thai style should wear down Nunes' gas tank issues. She is expected to finish the fight in the second or third round. The pick is based on stylistic advantage and Nunes' known cardio problems.

finishes in round 2 or 3
"I expect her Muay Thai style to wear down the gas tank issues of Nunes ultimately leading to luk buoni finishing this fight in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The Guru is high on Loma Lookboonmee, praising her technique on the feet and Muay Thai skills. He believes she has improved her takedown defense during her hiatus and will dominate Istela Nunes in the clinch and at range. He dismisses Nunes as having a poor record and lacking the skills to compete.

"Luma look boom's actually pretty good. She's got talent. She's great at striking and she's going to beat up on Estella Nunes in the clinch and at range on the feet as well with her superior Muay Thai skills."
TKO (arm injury) R1 0:34 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viktoriia Dudakova 3 of 11 27% 1 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Istela Nunes 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viktoriia Dudakova 3 of 11 27% 1 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Istela Nunes 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo is very high on Viktoriya Dudakova, calling her a well-rounded fighter who can strike with Nunes and wrestle if needed. He notes her clean and powerful striking, slick BJJ, and veteran composure. He thinks even at minus 250, she seems like a discount and could be a parlay piece. He compares her favorably to Ivana Petrovic, who was a bust, and believes Dudakova is the real deal.

parlay piece
"I'm all over Victoria in this fight I'm very high on her ... even at minus 250 I think that seems like a discount and I think Victoria could be a parlay piece"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady picks Viktoriya Dudakova, expecting her to survive Nunes' early power and then take over as Nunes' poor cardio becomes a factor. He notes Nunes is very good in the first round but fades badly. Dudakova is a grappler who will look for takedowns and submissions. He predicts a late submission in the second round, as Nunes goes 0-4 in the UFC.

Submission in the second round
"I'm going to say due to kova does find a sub late second round here I don't trust the cardio of Estella Nunez and I think Nunez goes 0-4 here in the UFC and takes her third submission loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Cody picks Dudakova, citing her cardio and wrestling advantages. He notes Nunes is 0-3 in the UFC due to poor cardio and takedown defense. He thinks Dudakova can survive early pressure and take over as Nunes fades. He suggests a live bet after the first round might be better value, but pre-fight he goes with Dudakova.

live bet after first round
"I think it will also take Judah kova because I think cardio and wrestling are like two things you need to win a fight and Nunez is 0-3 in the UFC because she lacks both things"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James does not offer a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he doesn't know much about the fighters and defers to his co-host Liam's analysis. He does not express a strong opinion.

"honestly I do not know much about the studio Cover Girl"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The host expects Dudakova to survive Nunes' early onslaught, clinch up, slow the fight down, and take over in the second and third rounds. He suggests a round three or decision prop, noting that Nunes fades after the first round. He also mentions a possible live bet on Dudakova after round one.

Dudakova wins in round 3 or by decision; live bet entry after round 1
"I'm going to be honing in on that round three slash decision prop that FanDuel likes drop for this matchup because I believe that dudukova can wear on her drag her into deep Waters possibly finish her late or at …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Paul picks Dudakova, citing her wrestling advantage and Nunes' poor defensive wrestling and cardio. He notes Nunes fades after 7.5 minutes and Dudakova can survive early shots and secure takedowns as Nunes tires. He mentions Dudakova's contender series win as a +250 underdog and thinks her path to victory is consistent wrestling. He considers the by decision prop at +175.

by decision at +175
"due to kova is going to be the pick I like going with the cf'd up... I feel like the one thing due to kova does well is what is how she's going to win this fight which is just …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru picks Viktoriya Dudakova over Istela Nunes, acknowledging Nunes's hunger but favoring Dudakova's youth, undefeated record, and well-roundedness. He notes Dudakova's Contender Series win despite an injury, and her opponent's subsequent success, while criticizing Nunes's losses to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes. He predicts a decision win for Dudakova.

"I'm gonna have to go with Victoria dudakova here Nunez isn't bad but I think dudukov is a bit more well-rounded"
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 2 67 of 154 43% 103 of 200 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:50
Istela Nunes 1 36 of 60 60% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Istela Nunes 1 24 of 40 60% 25 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Yazmin Jauregui 2 40 of 68 58% 76 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Istela Nunes 0 12 of 20 60% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 67 of 154 43% 54 of 135 6 of 11 7 of 8 38 of 109 7 of 12 22 of 33
Istela Nunes 36 of 60 60% 20 of 41 12 of 14 4 of 5 28 of 50 8 of 8 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 27 of 86 31% 18 of 72 4 of 8 5 of 6 25 of 82 2 of 4 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 24 of 40 60% 13 of 29 7 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 40 of 68 58% 36 of 63 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 27 5 of 8 22 of 33
Istela Nunes 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 5 of 7 0 of 1 8 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo picks Yazmin Jauregui but is hesitant, noting that Istela Nunes is a legitimate professional kickboxer with impressive speed and versatility. He believes if Nunes has full three-round cardio, she should be the better overall striker. However, he leans on Jauregui because Nunes gassed in her last fight against Sam Hughes. He calls the odds 'absolute insanity' and expects a mostly striking matchup.

Surprised by the odds (Jauregui almost 4-to-1 favorite)
"I'm gonna pick Yasmin but the only reason I'm picking Yasmin is because the seller gassed in that fight against Sam Hughes"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady leans towards Jauregui due to her youth (23 years old) and cardio advantage, expecting Nunes to slow down in the later rounds. He notes that Jauregui is a striker and unlikely to exploit Nunes' takedown defense weakness. He predicts a competitive fight early but Jauregui taking over in the second and third rounds to win a decision.

Jauregui wins by decision
"I think it's going to be competitive early on... but as the fight goes on I do think she's going to start to slow... I do see heregie taking over second third round and winning the decision there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui but is tempted by Nunes as a dog. He notes Nunes' power and counter-striking, but thinks her cardio will fade. He suggests live betting Nunes after round 1.

live bet on Nunes after round 1
"I will take Yasmine but what I can offer up is live bet this thing because the Stella Nunes is a problem in the first round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Connor picks Yazmin Jauregui, agreeing that Nunes fades when pressured and that Jauregui's technical punching and pocket dedication will win out over multiple rounds. He notes that Nunes has a history of crumbling once her confidence is dented.

"How to gree is the favorite here as expected open to minus 240 dropped to minus 350 currently minus 330."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Daniel Levi picks Jauregui, citing her high output, takedown defense, and heart. He notes Nunes' pacing issues and believes Jauregui's youth and pressure will carry her. He is not betting at the price but is confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna go with the favorite Yasmine uh yaragui to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui to win by third-round TKO. He thinks Nunes will start strong but fade due to poor cardio, allowing Jauregui to take over and finish. He is wary of the minus 300 chalk but believes Jauregui is a decent enough prospect to survive early and finish late. He notes that Nunes is likely fighting for her UFC spot.

Jauregui round 3 TKO
"I'm gonna go yadagui round three TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul picks Jauregui but is puzzled by the price. He notes her potential and Nunes' cardio issues. He thinks Jauregui can win by decision or late finish if she mixes in takedowns.

Jauregui by decision
"I'm gonna be picking wariki I'm just uh kind of puzzled about how I how I approach this matchup"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui because she lived up to her hype in the UFC, showing rare talent in the women's division. He notes Istela Nunes has lost her last two fights and is under pressure at 30 years old. He predicts Jauregui will win by decision, citing her youth (23) and ability to overcome octagon jitters.

Jauregui by decision
"I'm gonna be going with Yasmine Jared because she had hype coming into the UFC but she actually lived up to that hype once she got into the UFC"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Zane picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her consistent boxing, tight defense, and ability to exit exchanges with a left hook. He notes that Nunes is a sharp striker early but fades when pressured, and Jauregui's counter punching will be a problem for Nunes.

"I gotta take how to give her basically just for like the depth and consistency of her uh of her boxing."
LOSS vs Sam Hughes
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 89 of 228 39% 90 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 76 of 182 41% 151 of 257 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 40 of 92 43% 40 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 15 of 48 31% 15 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sam Hughes 0 37 of 98 37% 37 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 31 of 76 40% 60 of 105 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:35
3 Sam Hughes 0 12 of 38 31% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 30 of 58 51% 76 of 104 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 89 of 228 39% 52 of 173 26 of 44 11 of 11 83 of 220 5 of 6 1 of 2
Istela Nunes 76 of 182 41% 67 of 167 9 of 15 0 of 0 59 of 156 4 of 7 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 40 of 92 43% 20 of 65 14 of 21 6 of 6 39 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 15 of 48 31% 14 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sam Hughes 37 of 98 37% 26 of 78 9 of 18 2 of 2 35 of 95 2 of 3 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 31 of 76 40% 25 of 67 6 of 9 0 of 0 29 of 73 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Sam Hughes 12 of 38 31% 6 of 30 3 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 34 2 of 2 1 of 2
Istela Nunes 30 of 58 51% 28 of 53 2 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 35 2 of 4 13 of 19
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Angelo picks Istela Nunes, expecting a three-round decision win. He notes that Nunes has cleaner striking with speed and power, while Sam Hughes is hittable and has not taken anyone down in the UFC. He references Nunes's last fight where she won striking exchanges but lost due to takedowns, but believes Hughes cannot take her down.

"i do think estella has the cleaner striker and will win the striking exchanges i don't see hughes being able to take her down which means this ends up being a three-round decision win for estella nunez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Big Brady picks Istela Nunes to win by decision. He notes Nunes has good striking and improved takedown defense, while Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC with poor striking defense (49%) and no takedowns landed. He expects the fight to stay standing, where Nunes will outclass Hughes. He calls it a winnable fight for Nunes but says he doesn't overly want anything to do with it.

win by decision
"i got to go nunez here i'm going to take nunes to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Cody picks Nunes, noting her striking advantage and Hughes' lack of finishing ability. He thinks Nunes can win on the feet and avoid takedowns. He calls it a good spot for Nunes.

"i do think that she should be the established favorite she is that is who i'm going to be taking"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Daniel Levi leans Istela Nunes based on aggression and forward pressure, noting Hughes is hesitant and seems to lack confidence. He acknowledges Nunes's win over Karnilosi may be overrated because Karnilosi blocks punches with her face, but believes Nunes's willingness to engage will sway judges. He is not willing to lay -225 but picks Nunes to win.

Not betting at -225; mentions Nunes's aggression and Hughes's hesitancy
"I'll take a stella nunes no bet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Paul picks Nunes, citing her striking and physicality. He notes Hughes' poor performances and thinks Nunes can piece her up. He acknowledges cardio concerns but believes Nunes can win the first two rounds.

"i think nunez is going to piece her up"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Istela Nunes, citing her strong striking performance against Ariane Carnelossi, who he notes was on steroids. He believes Nunes has a reach advantage and will outclass Sam Hughes on the feet, winning a 30-27 unanimous decision.

unanimous decision 30-27
"gotta go the stella nunes here she looked really good against ariana carlos in her debut"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:57 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane Carnelossi 0 62 of 119 52% 98 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 36 of 108 33% 76 of 158 5 of 7 71% 1 0 7:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane Carnelossi 0 31 of 63 49% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 18 of 52 34% 34 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
2 Ariane Carnelossi 0 18 of 29 62% 46 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 9 of 30 30% 27 of 55 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:33
3 Ariane Carnelossi 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Istela Nunes 0 9 of 26 34% 15 of 33 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane Carnelossi 62 of 119 52% 37 of 88 16 of 22 9 of 9 54 of 109 8 of 10 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 36 of 108 33% 33 of 103 2 of 4 1 of 1 33 of 100 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane Carnelossi 31 of 63 49% 17 of 47 10 of 12 4 of 4 27 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 18 of 52 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 1 of 1 17 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Ariane Carnelossi 18 of 29 62% 12 of 21 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 23 4 of 6 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 9 of 30 30% 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 25 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Ariane Carnelossi 13 of 27 48% 8 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 3 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Istela Nunes 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Istela Nunes vs. Ariane Carnelossi

Round 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes

Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi

Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.

The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.

plus 3.5 points, win inside distance/decision no action
"I like Nunes in this fight as an underdog I don't like her enough to bet on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.

by decision
"i'm actually gonna take a shot on the dog in terms of a pick there's just too many question marks for me to bet it though i'm going to pick estela nunes to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.

"i would say that she keeps that momentum going"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.

"i gotta go with carnalosi she's got that ufc experience under her belt"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.

Carnelossi by decision +165
"i like the carnilosi decision i do think that nunes will be able to eat some shots here and we'll see this go for 15 minutes so i like carne lucy by decision at plus 165."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.

ground and pound tko in the second round
"i'm picking man arms mcgee for the win here arianny carlos will get it done"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Angelo picks Istela Nunes, expecting a three-round decision win. He notes that Nunes has cleaner striking with speed and power, while Sam Hughes is hittable and has not taken anyone down in the UFC. He references Nunes's last fight where she won striking exchanges but lost due to takedowns, but believes Hughes cannot take her down.

"i do think estella has the cleaner striker and will win the striking exchanges i don't see hughes being able to take her down which means this ends up being a three-round decision win for estella nunez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Big Brady picks Istela Nunes to win by decision. He notes Nunes has good striking and improved takedown defense, while Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC with poor striking defense (49%) and no takedowns landed. He expects the fight to stay standing, where Nunes will outclass Hughes. He calls it a winnable fight for Nunes but says he doesn't overly want anything to do with it.

win by decision
"i got to go nunez here i'm going to take nunes to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Cody picks Nunes, noting her striking advantage and Hughes' lack of finishing ability. He thinks Nunes can win on the feet and avoid takedowns. He calls it a good spot for Nunes.

"i do think that she should be the established favorite she is that is who i'm going to be taking"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Daniel Levi leans Istela Nunes based on aggression and forward pressure, noting Hughes is hesitant and seems to lack confidence. He acknowledges Nunes's win over Karnilosi may be overrated because Karnilosi blocks punches with her face, but believes Nunes's willingness to engage will sway judges. He is not willing to lay -225 but picks Nunes to win.

Not betting at -225; mentions Nunes's aggression and Hughes's hesitancy
"I'll take a stella nunes no bet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

Paul picks Nunes, citing her striking and physicality. He notes Hughes' poor performances and thinks Nunes can piece her up. He acknowledges cardio concerns but believes Nunes can win the first two rounds.

"i think nunez is going to piece her up"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Istela Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Istela Nunes, citing her strong striking performance against Ariane Carnelossi, who he notes was on steroids. He believes Nunes has a reach advantage and will outclass Sam Hughes on the feet, winning a 30-27 unanimous decision.

unanimous decision 30-27
"gotta go the stella nunes here she looked really good against ariana carlos in her debut"