vs
-250 +240
UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Martin Buday
4.39 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.49 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.15 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
93.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chris Barnett
3.36 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
6.55 SApM
36.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Martin Buday
Moneyline
BetRivers -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +125
Submission
BetRivers +550
Decision
BetRivers +650
Chris Barnett
Moneyline
Caesars +240
KO/TKO
DraftKings +300
Submission
FanDuel +3400
Decision
FanDuel +1000
Martin Buday - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 41 of 86 47% 92 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 2 2:51
Marcus Buchecha 0 24 of 60 40% 80 of 140 1 of 11 9% 0 1 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 19 of 44 43% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Marcus Buchecha 0 19 of 42 45% 21 of 46 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Martin Buday 0 9 of 12 75% 23 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:50
Marcus Buchecha 0 3 of 8 37% 45 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
3 Martin Buday 0 13 of 30 43% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:18
Marcus Buchecha 0 2 of 10 20% 14 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 1 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 41 of 86 47% 30 of 74 5 of 5 6 of 7 36 of 74 4 of 6 1 of 6
Marcus Buchecha 24 of 60 40% 14 of 46 10 of 14 0 of 0 16 of 50 6 of 8 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 19 of 44 43% 14 of 38 4 of 4 1 of 2 15 of 38 4 of 5 0 of 1
Marcus Buchecha 19 of 42 45% 10 of 31 9 of 11 0 of 0 13 of 34 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Marcus Buchecha 3 of 8 37% 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Martin Buday 13 of 30 43% 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1 13 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 3
Marcus Buchecha 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Martin Buday vs. Marcus Almeida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-210); Buday (+175)

Round 1
A couple weeks removed from the dramatic conclusion of the heavyweight decision streak, the promotion opens up its event in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with big men kicking things off. The massive Buday (15-2, 6-1 UFC), who cuts a significant amount of weight to get to the 266-pound limit, will have some serious poundage in his favor when he faces Almeida (5-1, 0-0 UFC). The latter recently came over from One Championship, and he will be making a short-notice debut while looking to keep his 100% finish rate intact. The big fellas meet in the middle without a glove touch as referee Marc Goddard clocks them in, and it’s on with the show.
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Buday opts against the glove touch so he can sprint at his opponent, and he is quick to prepare himself to defend against the takedown. “Buchecha” tries for a single-leg takedown, and Buday’s sheer size allows him to squash Almeida and push him down to the mat. Buday backs off, smacks his foe’s lead leg a few times with kicks, and Goddard has the newcomer stand up. Buday jabs his way forward, and he stops another single in its tracks. Buday fights off a third by pushing Almeida to his back, landing a hammerfist or two before getting the heck out of dodge and not playing in the guard of the BJJ wiz. Goddard has Almeida stand up again, and the fighters both launch single punches at one another. Almeida scores an overhand right in an effort to set up a takedown, but he runs into a Slovakian stone wall once more.
Buday is unconcerned with the wrestling of his adversary, allowing him to open up with heavy punches including a right hand over the top that makes Almeida’s eyes go wide. Almeida shoots for a single, and Buday stops it with ease and dings his man with an uppercut. Almeida goes to the well with another single, and there is nothing to it as he gets clocked with a right hand on the break. Almeida wobbles back and tries to recover, even probing Buday with a right hand of his own, but Buday hits harder and more frequently. Buday gets right in Almeida’s face to slug with him, and Almeida wants nothing to do with mindless brawling. “Buchecha” circles around the outside to drive a knee to the midsection, and the two tie up and knee one another repeatedly. Almeida gets Buday’s attention while they trade, but his subsequent takedown is stood up without much effort. The round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buday

Round 2
Buday ambles awkwardly out of his corner to engage without any interest in touching gloves, engaging quickly with the grappler with long punches and low kicks. Almeida bobs to fake takedowns, and Buday does not bite as he punches Almeida square in the face. His leg kick is starting to do some damage as well, as he mixes it in every so often. When “Buchecha” tosses out a naked front kick, he gets smacked with a right hand over the top. Almeida rushes forward for a single, and he decides to just tackle Buday to the floor without any further technique to it. He succeeds this time, where he lands in half guard and revs up his jitz engine. Almeida softens Buday up with punches and elbows to the midsection, and Buday holds onto Almeida’s face with both hands.
Buday keeps his hands on Almeida’s face to stop him from high-amplitude strikes or a submission setup, but Almeida still wants Buday’s left arm. Almeida grips hold of a two-on-one wrist lock to set up a kimura, but Buday twist and turns his way out of it. As Buday scrambles, he inadvertently gives up his back while on his knees, and Almeida pounces like a hungry animal to finish his hunt for his prey. Almeida opts to shell Buday on both sides of the head rather than going for a sub, and some of his blows land on the back of the head. Buday scoots his way to the fencing in hopes of standing, and he takes advantage of a mistake from the grappler by hurling Almeida to his back. Almeida appears to be fading fast, laying flat on his back taking deep breaths. Buday lays on top of him, hanging out in the guard away from submission danger so he can rattle off some ground-and-pound before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
There is a glove touch between the heavyweights, and they start talking to one another. Buday reintroduces himself with punches and a calf kick, and Almeida has no immediate answer. Buday meanders forward, ignoring what comes his way so he can clip the newcomer with a right hand behind the ear. Almeida wobbles back, struggling to keep his composure, and Buday slowly walks him down and cracks him again with a left. Almeida shoots in for a takedown that is telegraphed, and he blows past his opponent. Buday loops a left hand up top, and it is one-and-done as he has to defend from a takedown. The Slovakian pushes his weight on the back of Almeida’s neck to hold him down, and he stops another shot and misses a knee by a matter of inches. Almeida is a dog with a bone looking for takedowns, but while the spirit is willing, the flesh is spongy and weak. Buday nails Almeida at any open opportunity when not shutting down the takedown, and he decides that it is time to wade into the guard at the midpoint of the round.
Buday lowers himself down and starts beating down the grappler with elbows, with Almeida nearly pulling guard to get him there. As Buday keeps striking, he gets a bit reckless and sits up, and this allows “Buchecha” to explode and swirl around to take Buday’s back. Buday turns, and in the process, Almeida gets both hooks in and secures back control. Buday flails and forces Almeida off of his back, allowing Almeida to stand up and hover behind him smacking him with short shots on the side of the head. Buday stands, and Almeida rolls to set up a crucifix but winds up on his back. Buday starts raining down Donkey Kong-esque punches while Almeida keeps his knee up as an additional blocking mechanism. The close, messy fight comes to a close as both big men fall to their back in exhaustion after three rounds of MMA without a stoppage.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Buday)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Almeida)

The Official Result
Martin Buday def. Marcus Almeida via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Martin Buday, noting he is the more well-rounded fighter with decent wrestling, takedown defense, and striking. He considers Marcus Buchecha one-dimensional, a BJJ specialist, and believes Buday can out-technique him and win a boring decision. He is surprised Buday is the underdog and will not bet on this fight.

No bet; maybe inside distance decision
"Martin is going to be the pick. There's no way I'm betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite BJJ and the massive grappling gap. He notes Buchecha's striking is a work in progress but believes his takedowns and top control will be too much for Budai, who has poor defensive grappling. He predicts an early finish, likely by ground and pound or submission in round one.

finishes fight in round one, ground and pound knockout
"I think Betta gets it done. I think he gets it done early. ... I think he finishes fight in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is expected to keep the fight upright, utilize his striking and cardio advantage, and break down Buchecha for a round three TKO. Buchecha is a high-level BJJ specialist but his wrestling is not good, so Buday should avoid the ground.

round 3 TKO
"I expect Budai to keep this fight upright, utilize his striking and cardio advantage, and I expect him to break down Buchesa and win this fight by round three TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

The MMA Guru picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite jiu-jitsu credentials as a multiple-time world champion and ADCC champion. He acknowledges Buchecha's MMA transition and toughness shown in the Rugrug fight, despite the loss. He believes Buchecha's takedown ability and top pressure will be too much for Martin Buday, who he calls a 'plotter' but notes Buday's solid UFC record. He predicts an early submission, specifically round one.

Round 1 submission
"I trust in Betta here. I'm going to say Bucha gets this one done. Early submission. In fact, round one submission."
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 58 of 107 54% 142 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 5:06
Uran Satybaldiev 0 36 of 141 25% 45 of 154 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 17 of 39 43% 41 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Uran Satybaldiev 0 14 of 51 27% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Martin Buday 0 28 of 44 63% 44 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:24
Uran Satybaldiev 0 12 of 47 25% 13 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Martin Buday 0 13 of 24 54% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:32
Uran Satybaldiev 0 10 of 43 23% 16 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 58 of 107 54% 29 of 72 3 of 4 26 of 31 49 of 93 9 of 14 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 36 of 141 25% 19 of 120 6 of 6 11 of 15 32 of 137 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 17 of 39 43% 7 of 26 0 of 0 10 of 13 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 14 of 51 27% 6 of 39 2 of 2 6 of 10 13 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 28 of 44 63% 13 of 26 2 of 3 13 of 15 22 of 35 6 of 9 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 12 of 47 25% 8 of 43 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 13 of 24 54% 9 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 10 of 43 23% 5 of 38 3 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 40 3 of 3 0 of 0
CANCEL vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo initially wanted to pick Martin Buday but changed his mind after rewatching Buday's fight against Andre Arlovski, where Buday struggled to outwork a 45-year-old. He notes Kennedy Nzechukwu has power and takedown defense, and despite being gun-shy at times, he can turn fights around. Angelo picks Kennedy but suggests a prop bet for better value due to the steep odds.

maybe a prop bet here to get some better value
"Kennedy is the pick maybe a prop bet here to get some better value minus 325 seems tough dude."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He believes Martin Buday's game is limited to cage pushing and that Nzechukwu is the much better striker with more power and cardio. He expects a late finish, possibly a third-round KO.

third round KO
"I'll say third round KO for Kennedy and zuku"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nzechukwu. He shares concerns about Nzechukwu's mental fragility but thinks Buday is not the fighter to exploit it. Connor notes that Buday's record is unimpressive and he hasn't faced killers, while Nzechukwu is a good athlete for his size. He warns that Nzechukwu starts slow, which could allow Buday to get comfortable, but ultimately sees Nzechukwu's skills prevailing.

"I kind of have trouble seeing it to be honest... I'll pick in such a crew as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Buday will make the fight close by engaging in the clinch, but Nzechukwu's athleticism advantage and damage once back in space will cause problems. Nzechukwu is expected to win on the scorecards.

decision
"I think budai will make this fight very close by engaging in the clinch But ultimately it'll be the damage of enzu once he gets back out into space that will cause budai problems look for enzu to win this …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, mocking Martin Buday's poor physique and calling him out of shape. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and dynamism will be too much for Buday, and predicts a first-round TKO via big shots. He notes Buday's training with Tom Aspinall but doesn't think it will help.

Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by TKO in round 1
"I'm going with Kennedy as a Chuku. TKO finish round one. Big shots put away Martin Bedair."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picks Nzechukwu, noting he is more technical, diverse, and athletic than Buday. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's confidence issues and tendency to get scared off by aggression, but believes Buday's slow, steady pressure won't overwhelm him. Zane points out that Buday is durable but not powerful, and Nzechukwu has many options to win, though he could still lose if Buday just leans on him.

Nzechukwu opened -274, now -336; Buday opened +219, now +292. Zane says the line is too wide.
"I'll pick in such a crew as well, but it flies in the face of the dadliness theory of heavyweight and I won't be at all surprised if Budai just gets out there grabs him and mashes him on the …"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 74 of 119 62% 98 of 147 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:58
Andrei Arlovski 0 54 of 84 64% 165 of 199 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 14 of 25 56% 16 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Andrei Arlovski 0 8 of 21 38% 55 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
2 Martin Buday 0 27 of 46 58% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Andrei Arlovski 0 22 of 32 68% 45 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Martin Buday 0 33 of 48 68% 50 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Andrei Arlovski 0 24 of 31 77% 65 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 74 of 119 62% 34 of 69 26 of 33 14 of 17 54 of 97 20 of 22 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 54 of 84 64% 24 of 51 25 of 27 5 of 6 23 of 48 31 of 36 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 14 of 25 56% 8 of 17 4 of 5 2 of 3 12 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 8 of 21 38% 5 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 27 of 46 58% 14 of 29 8 of 12 5 of 5 19 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 22 of 32 68% 8 of 16 11 of 12 3 of 4 8 of 14 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 33 of 48 68% 12 of 23 14 of 16 7 of 9 23 of 38 10 of 10 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 24 of 31 77% 11 of 18 13 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 18 13 of 13 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski, citing his experience and tendency to win close decisions. He notes that Buday has low output and poor wrestling, and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who often gets the nod in close fights. Cody believes Arlovski can outpoint Buday in a low-volume affair, but admits it's a risky pick.

"Arlovski for me in like a real greasy split decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel thinks Buday will win the fight by pinning Arlovski against the fence and wearing him down with dirty boxing. However, he is hesitant to lay the price because similar prospects like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins failed to finish Arlovski. He notes that Aspen Ladd did his job at a similar price, so he expects Buday to win but is not interested in the bet.

"I think Buday is going to win the fight I'm just not interested in this price."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Buday, expecting him to be pissed off after his last loss and to pressure Arlovski. He thinks Buday's clinch work and forward pressure will wear on Arlovski, and hopes Buday goes for takedowns to finish easily. He recommends Buday inside the distance at +150.

Buday inside the distance at +150
"I'm going to go budai and budai inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul leans toward Arlovski, noting that Buday has been out struck in recent fights and that Arlovski has a history of winning split decisions. He believes Arlovski's durability and experience will be key, and that Buday lacks the power to finish him. Paul expects a boring decision win for Arlovski.

"I'm seeing all the same stuff you're seeing and I agree largely with a lot of the points."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The Guru picks Martin Buday over Andrei Arlovski. He notes Arlovski's age and recent KO losses. He likes Buday's pressure game plan and training with Tom Aspinall. He believes Buday will lean on Arlovski in the clinch and break him down with body shots.

"I'm going to go with Martin B... I think he'll Force the fight and that'll Break alovi"
LOSS vs Shamil Gaziev
TKO (punches) R2 0:56 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shamil Gaziev 0 8 of 20 40% 13 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Martin Buday 0 49 of 98 50% 60 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shamil Gaziev 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Martin Buday 0 36 of 73 49% 45 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:08
2 Shamil Gaziev 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Martin Buday 0 13 of 25 52% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shamil Gaziev 8 of 20 40% 8 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
Martin Buday 49 of 98 50% 35 of 79 14 of 19 0 of 0 35 of 73 5 of 10 9 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shamil Gaziev 7 of 17 41% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 2 0 of 0
Martin Buday 36 of 73 49% 27 of 59 9 of 14 0 of 0 23 of 49 4 of 9 9 of 15
2 Shamil Gaziev 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Martin Buday 13 of 25 52% 8 of 20 5 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buday (-148), Gaziev (+124)

Round 1
The year-ending UFC pay-per-view is upon us, and with a record number of fights for the organization, it has been one heck of a 2023 calendar. Before fans receive a much-needed respite over the holidays, a dozen matchups of high intrigue will play out in Las Vegas. It may not start with 12 drummers drumming, but when the heavyweights open up the billing, the thumps of the two big men laying into one another might sound like percussion. Getting things started will be once-beaten, surging Buday (13-1, 4-0 UFC) and the undefeated Gaziev (11-0, 0-0 UFC). Despite their heft, the knockout rates of these burly gentlemen that will combine for 525 mighty pounds—not counting any weight cut—are not through the roof. Referee Mark Smith will nevertheless be on his A-game for the card opener, one that begins with a bump of large fists. Gaziev takes the center of the cage, and he sets up immediate counters when Buday lumbers towards him. Gaziev cuts off his foe with a two-hook combo, making Buday take a second look at coming in. Gaziev sticks out a sharp jab, and he flashes a mean grin while stalking after Buday. Gaziev marks up Buday’s nose with combinations, and he follows a few punches with a knee up the middle. Buday grabs hold of him after absorbing the flush knee to the breadbasket to slow down the surging offense of the UFC debutant. Gaziev pushes off, and he loads on power punches while further busting Buday up. Buday circles away, and he gets backed up to the fence and takes a knee that partially bounces off his guard. Buday escapes, and Gaziev walks him down and blasts him in the face with a shovel uppercut that makes Buday’s nose leak blood. Buday starts blinking and brings his hands up to cover his face, and he backs off in dire trouble. Smith recognizes that there is a nasty cut opened up either under his left eyebrow or on his eyelid, and he pauses the round and brings in the doctor to check on his condition. Buday is cleared to continue, and he thanks Smith by shooting in for a takedown. Gaziev steamrolls him over and pushes Buday to his back, where he proceeds to target the bloodied eye with punches and elbows. Gaziev moves to half guard, and he grinds his elbow mercilessly on Buday’s mouth and throat. Gaziev sits up and busts Buday in the face with a few left hands, and blood continues to leak out of Buday’s eye. Buday turns over as he continues to take punishment, and he fights to a knee but is wrenched down by the undefeated fighter. Gaziev drills a knee to the posterior, and when Buday stands up, Gaziev follows him with a knee on the jaw right before the bell sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 2
Smith brings in the doctor to again take a look at Buday’s eye, who checks on Buday’s vision and condition. The physician informs Smith that Buday can still continue, and the second round begins. Gaziev wants to waste little time as he searches for a finish, marching Buday down and slugging him in the face with ruthless right hands and elbows. Buday shells up, his back against the cage wall, and Gaziev lays into him with powerful blows.
Smith implores Buday to fight back, and Gaziev drills his foe in the body with a right hand that makes Buday double over. Gaziev continues hurling punches as Buday wilts but does not go down, and Smith recognizes that Buday has nothing left to offer and waves off the match.
That makes it a perfect 12 up with none down for the debuting Gaziev, who has notched 11 of his 12 victories inside the distance.

The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Martin Badys R2 0:56 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, impressed by his power, cardio, and toughness. He notes that Buday has faced weaker competition and that Gaziev's power is a different level. He has a quarter-unit bet on Gaziev at +155.

Quarter unit bet at +155; heavyweight so small bet
"Shamil is the pick I do have a small quarter of a unit bet on him at plus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round TKO, favoring Buday's cardio and size. He notes Gaziev's early finish power but poor cardio, and believes if Buday survives the first round, he will break Gaziev in deep waters. Brady highlights Buday's brown belt in BJJ and volume striking (over 5 significant strikes per minute). He expects Buday to wear on Gaziev against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground and pound.

"I like budai to win this fight in the second or third round I think he breaks down gaze holds him against the cage puts his weight on him wears on him and eventually takes him down hopefully gets on …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, arguing that Gaziev has poor cardio and will fade after the first round. He notes that Gaziev's wrestling is not elite and his striking is bad, while Buday has good cardio and can push a pace. Cody believes Buday will survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds, winning by TKO or decision. He sees Buday as the safer pick.

Martin Buday by TKO
"I got budy I got budai to take him out down the stretch probably by TKO"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Jeff Fox picks Shamil Gaziev by knockout, stating that he likes Gaziev's straight punches and the way he attacks. He believes Gaziev will land one to Martin Buday's big skull and finish him. The prop is at plus 250.

Shamil Gaziev by knockout at +250
"I'm gonna take Shamil godv uh I'm gonna take him by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev as an underdog. He believes Gaziev has more finishing upside early, is more athletic, and hits harder. He criticizes Martin Buday's plodding style and porous striking defense, noting Buday has been cracked by lesser fighters. He says it's Gaziev or pass, and that laying minus 200 on Buday is not advisable.

"I like Gaziev a little bit as an underdog in this spot... it's Gaziev or pass."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Buday, praising his pace, pressure, durability, and cardio. He expects Buday to stuff Gaziev's early takedown attempts, then take over in rounds two and three, breaking Gaziev in the clinch and finding a late finish. He notes that Gaziev's cardio looks sketchy and that Buday will be the better striker and more durable. He predicts a third-round stoppage for Buday.

Buday by TKO in round 3
"give me Martin budai here and I think he gets a third round stoppage over Shamil GV"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul picks Gaziev as an underdog, noting that Buday has struggled against bottom-level heavyweights and that Gaziev has a wrestling advantage. He acknowledges that Gaziev's cardio is a concern but believes if Gaziev can get early takedowns, he can control the fight. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at +135, especially since Buday has not faced many wrestlers.

"I took the underdog just cuz In fairness to gazi"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Martin Buday, criticizing Buday as an out-of-shape heavyweight with no grappling or striking skills. He highlights Gaziev's regional credentials and finishing ability. He predicts Gaziev will get a takedown and submit Buday with an arm triangle in round one.

Gaziev by submission (arm triangle) in round 1
"I'm going to go with Shamil gaziev getting this one done by first round armed triangle submission after a takedown in the Midway point of round one"
WIN vs Josh Parisian
Submission (kimura) R1 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"Martin should win this fight I'm fairly confident in him and this is likely a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.

"give me budai budai by decision but this is a fight that I really want nothing to do with I mean this is a disgusting fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125); Buday by decision (+165); Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"party Marty by volume by holding up against the cage maybe get some takedowns if he wants to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.

"I think Josh Parisian is value here... will I bet on him? That's different."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.

Buday by decision
"I fully expect budai to get his hand raised by decision in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds; Buday by decision; Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"the official pick would be budai by decision but like it's gonna be super super ugly"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.

"I'm going with Tom Segura okay Martin bidet is gonna win this fight against Josh Parisian"
WIN vs Jake Collier
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 98 of 177 55% 145 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:45
Jake Collier 0 94 of 207 45% 107 of 226 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 27 of 51 52% 30 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Jake Collier 0 45 of 99 45% 48 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
2 Martin Buday 0 38 of 65 58% 51 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Jake Collier 0 27 of 55 49% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Martin Buday 0 33 of 61 54% 64 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Jake Collier 0 22 of 53 41% 30 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 98 of 177 55% 66 of 142 24 of 27 8 of 8 72 of 143 19 of 27 7 of 7
Jake Collier 94 of 207 45% 63 of 175 22 of 23 9 of 9 77 of 185 15 of 17 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 27 of 51 52% 20 of 43 2 of 3 5 of 5 26 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Collier 45 of 99 45% 32 of 85 7 of 8 6 of 6 43 of 93 0 of 1 2 of 5
2 Martin Buday 38 of 65 58% 22 of 48 14 of 15 2 of 2 24 of 46 14 of 19 0 of 0
Jake Collier 27 of 55 49% 20 of 48 6 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 46 9 of 9 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 33 of 61 54% 24 of 51 8 of 9 1 of 1 22 of 48 4 of 6 7 of 7
Jake Collier 22 of 53 41% 11 of 42 9 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 46 6 of 7 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday at plus money, noting that both fighters have poor recent performances. He believes if Buday uses his size and grappling to lean on Collier and push him against the cage, he can win. He is concerned about Collier's cardio after his last fight and thinks Buday's path to victory is through control and wearing Collier down.

"I'm gonna take that plus money and that plus money is currently on Martin budai so that's going to be a pick for now"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Collier's path to victory is either instant or leads to slow disaster. He points out that Collier was a middleweight who moved up and lacks the fitness to carry the weight, whereas Buday is a solid heavyweight who can fight into shape. Connor emphasizes that Collier's best wins are against fighters who couldn't match his pace, but Buday can sustain his own pace.

"Budai is the kind of fighter who has who could potentially with the extra money fight his way into heavyweight shape over time. Call your head Collier has eaten his way into heavy weight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul picks Collier, citing his volume and cardio advantage. He notes that Collier can land over 100 significant strikes and Buday has low volume. He predicts Collier wins by decision, as Buday is not likely to finish. He also mentions a prop on Buday under 65.5 significant strikes for PrizePicks.

Jake Collier by decision; Martin Buday under 65.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I'm gonna side with uh with Jay Collier to win Jay Collier by decision would be my official pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Zane picks Buday because he has the durability and patience to weather Collier's early storm, and Collier historically fades after a strong start. He notes that Buday is a competent heavyweight who can sustain a patient pace, while Collier's lack of fitness and tendency to gas out make him unreliable. Zane is surprised the odds are even, as he sees Buday as a clear favorite.

Odds comment: Buday opened at -140, now -130; Collier opened at +126, now -115. Zane is shocked the line is dead even.
"I think that basically that booty is going to weather the Jake cuddly or storm... so having the durability and having the if not the ability to push a crazy pace at least to sustain the patient pace he does …"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 66 of 188 35% 66 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 118 of 273 43% 124 of 280 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 41 of 104 39% 47 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Martin Buday 0 19 of 55 34% 19 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 43 of 89 48% 43 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Martin Buday 0 22 of 70 31% 22 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 34 of 80 42% 34 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 66 of 188 35% 50 of 169 3 of 6 13 of 13 65 of 187 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 118 of 273 43% 49 of 182 51 of 69 18 of 22 116 of 268 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 25 of 63 39% 20 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 24 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 41 of 104 39% 19 of 74 16 of 21 6 of 9 39 of 99 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 19 of 55 34% 14 of 50 1 of 1 4 of 4 19 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 43 of 89 48% 18 of 59 15 of 20 10 of 10 43 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 22 of 70 31% 16 of 63 2 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 34 of 80 42% 12 of 49 20 of 28 2 of 3 34 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.

Will use Buday in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"ultimately i am going to go with bidet here because i think his power is gonna be the difference i don't like him at two to one odds so i'm not gonna have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.

second round finish
"i'm going to say he does win by second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.

"i gotta go with the the bigger of the heavyweights to get it done and that's the slovakian prospect"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.

"Give me the real heavyweight Martin Buday in that one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Martin Buday

The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.

Buday inside the distance -110; Buday round 2 +550 (on FanDuel).
"i went straight on the uh uh round two plus 550 on fanduel hit that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as moved to -175); looking for over 2.5 or fight goes to decision
"i kind of like the early the early er numbers on the over one and a half rounds that were available but now that it's jacked up to minus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.

third round TKO due to exhaustion
"i'm going to go over martin bidet third round tko mainly due to the exhaustion of lucas bursky"
Chris Barnett - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 99 of 139 71% 170 of 221 9 of 14 64% 0 0 10:48
Chris Barnett 0 18 of 35 51% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 41 of 58 70% 47 of 64 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:03
Chris Barnett 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 27 of 44 61% 60 of 87 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:13
Chris Barnett 0 5 of 7 71% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 31 of 37 83% 63 of 70 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:32
Chris Barnett 0 5 of 12 41% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hamdy Abdelwahab 99 of 139 71% 88 of 125 8 of 10 3 of 4 16 of 25 13 of 14 70 of 100
Chris Barnett 18 of 35 51% 7 of 21 4 of 4 7 of 10 14 of 30 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hamdy Abdelwahab 41 of 58 70% 35 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 16 6 of 6 25 of 36
Chris Barnett 8 of 16 50% 3 of 11 4 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Hamdy Abdelwahab 27 of 44 61% 27 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 5 22 of 37
Chris Barnett 5 of 7 71% 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Hamdy Abdelwahab 31 of 37 83% 26 of 31 3 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 7 3 of 3 23 of 27
Chris Barnett 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 4 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Angelo picks Chris Barnett despite acknowledging his own bias (he knows Barnett personally). He criticizes Hamdy Abdelwahab for being a boring, steroid-using fighter who doesn't wrestle enough despite being an Olympic wrestler. Angelo believes Barnett will at least move forward and throw punches, while Hamdy coasts. He advises not betting on this sloppy fight.

Do not bet on this fight. Just leave it alone. This is going to be a sloppy mess.
"I'm going to pick Chris, and while I fully recognize he's also a little fat and he's kind of old, he's not afraid to actually fight. This guy will go for it. I'll pick the guy who will move forward …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab

Big Brady picks Hamdy Abdelwahab, calling Chris Barnett the worst heavyweight on the roster due to age, injuries, and size. He notes Barnett is 39, 5'9", and has taken significant damage. Brady expects Hamdy to finally get his first UFC finish, using his power to hurt and stop Barnett early. He calls it a 'nut up or shut up' fight for Hamdy and predicts a first-round KO.

Hamdy by first round KO
"I think Hamdy goes out there and gets his first finish in the UFC. Hamdy, he hits hard. I think he goes out there and hurts Barnett and puts him away. So, yeah, give me Hamdy Abdel Wahab. I think …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab

Cody picks Hamdy Abdelwahab, noting that Barnett is undersized at 5'9" and has poor takedown defense. He believes Hamdy's wrestling and power will be too much, and Barnett's only chance is a flashy KO. Cody expects Hamdy to win by boring decision or TKO.

"I think Hamdy makes this look real easy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Barnett

Connor picks Barnett based on vibes, noting that Abdelwahab is undercooked and has poor fundamentals. He believes Barnett's unorthodox style and experience could confuse Abdelwahab, who has only five pro fights. Connor acknowledges Barnett's lack of fundamentals but thinks he can outmaneuver Abdelwahab, especially if Abdelwahab fades. He also notes that Barnett is a character and he wants him to win.

Abdelwahab is a huge favorite at -400; Barnett is +300. Connor finds the odds surprising.
"I think I'm gonna pick Chris Barnett. ... He will confuse and frustrate them."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Abdelwahab's athleticism and power, calling this a significant step down in competition. He criticizes Barnett's age, obesity, and gimmicky style, and believes Abdelwahab will win easily, possibly by knockout. He notes that Barnett has already overachieved with two UFC wins and doesn't expect a third.

wins by KO
"I'm going to take the Egyptian Olympian Hamdi Abdel Wahhab to come out here and get back on track and possibly get a knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab

Lucrative James picks Hamdy Abdelwahab confidently, calling Chris Barnett one of the worst fighters on the roster. He notes Barnett's massive size disadvantage (5'9" at heavyweight) and reliance on flashy moves like spinning wheel kicks, which have caused injuries. He believes Abdelwahab can out-jab him, take him down at will, and win by dominant decision or late finish when Barnett tires.

decision or late finish
"I'm definitely picked picking Hamdi Abdel Wahab here. ... Chris Barnett at this point, man, I mean, yeah, I just I can't pick him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab

The host acknowledges Barnett's return from an Achilles injury but believes Abdelwahab's grappling, which he hasn't leaned on much, will be used to shut down Barnett's striking. He predicts Abdelwahab wins on the scorecards.

decision
"I think the grappling of Abdel Wahab... we'll see him lean on it this time to really shut Barnett's striking game down."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab

Paul agrees, calling Barnett a shell of himself after injuries and inactivity. He notes that Hamdy is an Olympic-level wrestler and will likely take Barnett down and control him. Paul believes Barnett's only win condition is a spinning kick KO, which is unlikely.

"Hamdy by boring, boring, you know, the tactics which are basically his only tactics."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab

The MMA Guru picks Hamdy Abdelwahab by decision, but is hesitant. He notes that Chris Barnett is old, injury-prone, and has had knee and foot surgeries, but also sees value in Barnett as an underdog. He believes Abdelwahab can pressure Barnett, take him down, and knee him against the cage. However, he admits Barnett could win by TKO. He expects a 29-28 decision for Abdelwahab.

Chris Barnett is good value as an underdog; Abdelwahab by 29-28 decision
"I'm going to go with Hamdy Abdel Wahab. I just can't seriously go with Chris Barnett. He is good value, though."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Barnett

Zane also picks Barnett, noting that Abdelwahab has better fundamentals but is inexperienced and gasses easily. He believes Barnett's weirdness could be too much for Abdelwahab to handle, especially if Abdelwahab can't connect his game together. Zane also points out that Abdelwahab's only win is a split decision over Jamal Pogues and that he lost to Mohammed Usman.

"I don't see a reason not to pick Chris Barnett. Honestly, like I'm Abdel Wahab is he clearly has better fundamentals. Yeah, but he's had five pro fights."
TKO (knee to the body and punches) R1 4:27 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 51 of 74 68% 51 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Barnett 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 51 of 74 68% 51 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Barnett 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 51 of 74 68% 28 of 50 22 of 23 1 of 1 50 of 73 0 of 0 1 of 1
Chris Barnett 12 of 34 35% 3 of 22 2 of 3 7 of 9 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 51 of 74 68% 28 of 50 22 of 23 1 of 1 50 of 73 0 of 0 1 of 1
Chris Barnett 12 of 34 35% 3 of 22 2 of 3 7 of 9 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu but is very hesitant. He notes Kennedy is taller, longer, and had a full camp, but warns that Kennedy 'kind of sucks' and was a massive favorite who lost to an older opponent in his last fight. He advises staying far away from betting on this fight due to the risk.

Stay far away from this fight; no bet recommended.
"I'm going to pick Kennedy he should win... but leave it the hell alone."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Nzechukwu, noting his significant size advantage (6'5" vs 5'9" on paper, but Barnett is likely shorter). He believes Kennedy has many ways to win: knockout, submission, or decision. He acknowledges Kennedy can be inconsistent but cannot pick Barnett. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I think he does look minus 750 with a second round submission so I'll take Kennedy to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his massive reach and height advantage. He notes that Barnett is old, overweight, and has low volume. Cody believes Nzechukwu's length and striking will keep Barnett at range, and that he will win by knockout in the second round. However, he warns that heavyweight fights are unpredictable.

"I got Kenny at the number"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a total mess who can't consistently win rounds. He notes that Nzechukwu has the size to dominate but lacks confidence, but against Barnett, he should be able to use his reach and size to win. Connor is not confident in Nzechukwu long-term but sees this as a favorable matchup.

"Yeah, I guess I'm with you, but I do not think, no, I don't think in such a cool long-term, like the data is not there. It just doesn't have the confidence to be a heavyweight. You gotta be a …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel Vreeland picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win, citing massive advantages in size, reach, and level of competition. He notes that Barnett does not belong in the UFC and that Nzechukwu can win easily by takedown or striking. Vreeland believes the true price is around -900 and that Nzechukwu is a much worse matchup for Barnett than Junior Tafa.

"Kennedy's you know bigger better like an actual fighter"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Daniel Vreeland is taking the huge underdog Chris Barnett. He argues that Nzechukwu has awful cardio, no motivation to come in shape now that he doesn't have to cut weight, and gets knocked out. Barnett is a heavy puncher who has won two of his last three by knockout, and Vreeland sees value at +500.

"Chris Barnett you at plus 500 let's make this the fourth week in a row that I hit a plus 400 or better"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Jeff Fox is reluctantly picking Nzechukwu, pushed into a corner by Vreeland's strong argument for Barnett. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's cardio issues and lack of motivation but still believes he is better than Barnett's previous opponents. Fox seems uncomfortable with the pick but sticks with Nzechukwu.

"I just can't I can't stand here and let somebody talk about that Kennedy and zugu is much better than insert most UFC have"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu is a big favorite but tough to trust after his last performance. He should keep Barnett at bay and possibly find a finish after the 1.5 round mark. However, minus 700 is a bit too wide for comfort.

Nzechukwu wins by finish after 1.5 rounds; odds -700 considered too wide
"I do expect him to keep Barnett at Bay possibly find a finish over the one and a half round mark but I do think that en zuku wins this fight minus 700 is just a little bit too wide"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a freak show fighter past his prime. He notes that Nzechukwu's reach and volume will be too much, and that Barnett's durability is questionable. Paul is confident Nzechukwu wins but avoids betting at heavy odds.

"Kennedy should have absolutely the volume the skill the reach"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Barnett's long layoff (over two years), age (38), and questionable conditioning. He believes Nzechukwu's athleticism and range will allow him to pick apart Barnett. He notes Barnett's past fight cancellations and weight issues. The Guru predicts Nzechukwu will win by decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Kennedy Nzechukwu I think it'll take an athletic heavyweight with some pop behind his shots to put away Kennedy Nzechukwu."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picks Nzechukwu despite his lack of power and confidence, because Barnett is a tiny heavyweight with no real tools besides confidence. Nzechukwu's size and reach will allow him to crowd Barnett and overwhelm him, though he expects a messy fight. Zane notes that Barnett has lost to other former light heavyweights and lacks durability.

"I'm going to pick him against Chris Barnett. I mean, it's very comical that we, we're talking about how he's more than big enough to be a big heavyweight. And his first opponent in the division is going to be …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picked Nzechukwu, noting that Barnett is a fun fighter but not going to beat big heavyweights. He highlighted that Barnett injured his leg in the pre-fight intro and further during a wheel kick, which was predictable given his rushed recovery from an Achilles injury. Zane praised Nzechukwu's size and form but questioned his confidence, suggesting he may struggle against other big heavyweights.

"if he's fighting guys like barnet i'm gonna pick him every time because barnet is a ton of fun and a fun mean fighter but he's not gonna beat big heavyweights"
WIN vs Jake Collier
TKO (punches) R2 2:24 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Barnett 1 51 of 98 52% 57 of 107 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:26
Jake Collier 0 54 of 98 55% 83 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Barnett 1 42 of 81 51% 48 of 90 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:26
Jake Collier 0 16 of 37 43% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Chris Barnett 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jake Collier 0 38 of 61 62% 65 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Barnett 51 of 98 52% 40 of 85 10 of 12 1 of 1 28 of 70 13 of 16 10 of 12
Jake Collier 54 of 98 55% 48 of 89 1 of 4 5 of 5 25 of 51 1 of 5 28 of 42
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Barnett 42 of 81 51% 32 of 70 9 of 10 1 of 1 22 of 57 10 of 12 10 of 12
Jake Collier 16 of 37 43% 11 of 29 0 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Barnett 9 of 17 52% 8 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jake Collier 38 of 61 62% 37 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 15 1 of 4 28 of 42
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Angelo picks Jake Collier, noting he is tougher and more well-rounded. He thinks Chris Barnett will plant and throw big bombs looking for a knockout, which will allow Collier to outwork him. He believes the line is disrespectful to Barnett, but expects Collier to win by pressuring and using his grappling.

"I think Chris is just gonna plant throw big bombs looking to connect so I gotta go with Jay Collier here but I think this line's a bit disrespectful."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Big Brady picks Jake Collier to win inside the distance, calling Chris Barnett one of the worst heavyweights on the roster. He notes Barnett is undersized at 5'9", has poor takedown defense and cardio, while Collier has solid cardio and volume. He predicts Collier can finish via ground-and-pound or submission, specifically a second-round submission.

second round submission
"Jake Collier inside the distance... I'll say he wins by second round sub."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Cody picks Jake Collier, noting his volume, cardio, and ground game are superior. He points out that Barnett is a freak show fighter with no wrestling or grappling, and that he quit in his last fight. He believes Collier will dominate and likely win by submission, and mentions the Collier by submission prop at +900 (now +650).

Collier by submission at +650
"jake collier meanwhile these are just totals he's put up in various fights he landed 94 against marcel fortuna he landed 123 against john vellante"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, calling him the more skilled fighter. He notes Collier's ground prowess as seen against Chase Sherman, and his spinning attacks. He warns that laying -400 on Collier is not a long-term winning strategy, but expects Collier to win. He also sends condolences to Barnett for personal issues.

"Pure pick is jay collier."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Jacob agrees, saying the playbook for Collier is to copy Martin Buday's approach: crowd Barnett, press him against the cage, and make it boring. He notes Barnett is athletic but needs space to shine, and Collier will take that away. He thinks Collier will lay on him and get the win.

"If you're Jake how you got to do it what Buday did and what you did to Arlovsky too just get in crowd them press them against the cage so just take that make it as boring as possible get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jake Collier

The host picks Jake Collier but is queasy about betting him at -410. He expects Collier to be the better overall fighter with better combinations and pace, and could finish late. He notes Barnett's power is a threat but trusts Collier's durability and versatility.

"I think Jake will touch him up... it is Jake parlay or pass essentially."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul picks Jake Collier, noting his pattern of never losing back-to-back fights. He believes Collier's volume and cardio will be too much for Barnett, who is undersized and has no intangible other than a puncher's chance. He says he won't bet Collier at -425 but expects him to win.

"i think jake collier is going to win i think he's got all the tools i think he absolutely dominates on volume cardio all of that good stuff"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Jake Collier

The MMA Guru picks Jake Collier to win by third-round TKO. He notes Chris Barnett has a massive cardio problem, while Collier pushes a hard pace. Barnett may land good shots early, including spinning techniques, but Collier will block or move out of the way and push forward. As Barnett slows, Collier will get a TKO via ground and pound in the third round.

third round TKO
"I'm going with Jake Collier and I'm going to pick Jake Collier to win this one by third round TKO"
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Technical Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 1:38 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 23 of 52 44% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Chris Barnett 1 56 of 83 67% 131 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 7:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 9 of 24 37% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Barnett 0 20 of 29 68% 45 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:15
2 Martin Buday 0 10 of 24 41% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Chris Barnett 0 25 of 38 65% 66 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:08
3 Martin Buday 0 4 of 4 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Barnett 1 11 of 16 68% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 23 of 52 44% 12 of 38 6 of 8 5 of 6 16 of 43 7 of 9 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 56 of 83 67% 30 of 56 25 of 26 1 of 1 23 of 44 29 of 32 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 20 of 29 68% 8 of 17 11 of 11 1 of 1 10 of 18 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 10 of 24 41% 5 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 25 of 38 65% 13 of 25 12 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 22 14 of 16 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 4 of 4 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 11 of 16 68% 9 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 5 of 5 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo sides with Martin Buday's power and the bookies, but is uncertain. He notes that Chris Barnett is athletic and dynamic, but Buday has heavy hands and technical striking. He mentions that Barnett was a step behind in his last fight until landing a spinning back kick. He considers live betting Barnett if he starts getting ahead on strikes.

considers live betting Chris Barnett if he starts to get ahead
"i honestly don't know what to do here but today's power is scary but chris's athleticism can absolutely get him for the win but for right now i'm gonna side with the power and the bookies"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by finish inside the distance, likely in the second round. He notes Buday is a natural heavyweight with a size advantage, good takedowns, and a brown belt in BJJ. He expects Buday to push Barnett against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground and pound or a submission. He criticizes Barnett's ground game and size disadvantage.

win inside the distance, round 2
"i like boudoir here i like him quite a bit i think he's going to finish uh barnett in that second round whether it's ground and pound or submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, noting his size and clinch game. He thinks Buday can control Barnett against the cage and grind him down. However, he acknowledges Barnett's striking power and unpredictability.

"i will go boody um but with barnett he's a freak show he'll bring the entertainment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage and ability to wear on opponents with clinch work and knees to the thigh, as seen in his Contender Series win. He notes Buday gets hit but is tough, while Barnett is deceptively athletic for his size but likely to be overwhelmed by Buday's size and pressure. Levi is rooting for Barnett but picks Buday.

Mentions Buday's knees to the thigh and clinch work
"I'm gonna go with martin buday for the win."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He notes the fight is low-level heavyweight with high variance. He mentions Barnett by knockout as a potential prop but is not confident.

Barnett by knockout +350 (not yet available)
"i'll say dogger pass low level heavyweight fight dog money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday despite wanting Chris Barnett to win. He notes Buday's size and clinch pressure, and that Barnett struggles when pressured and against high pace. He expects Buday to win a 30-27 unanimous decision by clinching and grinding.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i am going with martin bidet getting this one done by pressuring chris barnett against a cage maybe by a decision"
WIN vs Gian Villante
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Barnett 0 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Gian Villante 1 38 of 70 54% 44 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Barnett 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Gian Villante 0 21 of 34 61% 24 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Barnett 0 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gian Villante 1 17 of 36 47% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Barnett 30 of 51 58% 6 of 24 21 of 23 3 of 4 28 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 38 of 70 54% 13 of 41 4 of 5 21 of 24 28 of 52 1 of 1 9 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Barnett 22 of 40 55% 3 of 19 17 of 18 2 of 3 20 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 21 of 34 61% 3 of 16 3 of 3 15 of 15 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Barnett 8 of 11 72% 3 of 5 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gian Villante 17 of 36 47% 10 of 25 1 of 2 6 of 9 8 of 19 0 of 0 9 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Angelo picks Chris Barnett, citing his personal familiarity with Barnett from his time managing fighters in XFC. He describes Barnett as incredibly athletic and dynamic despite his appearance, with real power and surprising speed. He believes Villante is a middleweight who doesn't take his career seriously, and that Barnett will win via his diverse striking and power. He has a moneyline bet on Barnett.

Moneyline bet at -115 (BetOnline)
"i gotta go with chris here i gotta go with my guy chris honestly he's diverse he's got power john's lack of sort of career effort has me picking chris rooting for chris"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Big Brady picks Chris Barnett to win by decision, citing Barnett's cardio advantage over Gian Villante, who has notoriously poor stamina. He notes Villante has looked horrible at heavyweight, gassing out and even tapping to a non-existent submission. Barnett is undersized but can go 15 minutes, while Villante slows down drastically. Brady wants to stay away from this low-level fight but leans Barnett.

win by decision
"give me chris barnett to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Cody picks Barnett, emphasizing Villante's history of losing as a favorite and his retirement announcement. He notes Barnett's size and athleticism. He expects Villante to find a way to lose, making Barnett a live dog.

"the official pick would be uh chris the beast boy barnett"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Daniel Levi picks Chris Barnett, going against the grain. He criticizes Gian Villante's tendency to mess up fights, citing the Maurice Green loss and getting choked out. Levi notes that Barnett is explosive and has knockout power, but also has been knocked out by lower-level guys. He says it's a fight between two big guys swinging, and he trusts Barnett more than Villante, who he feels is unreliable.

"i'm gonna go chris barnett i can't really give you too much analysts on that one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Jacob agrees with Angelo, picking Chris Barnett. He notes that Barnett is the better athlete and that Villante's only path to victory is to make the fight boring. He believes the UFC is giving Barnett a showcase fight, and expects Barnett to throw spinning attacks and find a finish. He also mentions that Barnett can be found at plus money on BetOnline, which he took advantage of.

Moneyline bet at +105 (BetOnline)
"you can get them for plus 105 right now on bet online so you can get it for positive money i did it earlier today"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Gian Villante

The host leans Villante due to a grappling edge and the retirement motivation, but he is not confident. He expects the fight to go to decision and advises against betting on it. He thinks Villante can take Barnett down and control him, but both have cardio issues.

"i'm gonna lean with gian volante given that he probably has a grappling edge here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

Paul picks Barnett, citing Villante's retirement announcement and history of underperforming as a favorite. He notes Barnett's athleticism and size advantage. He expects a sloppy fight but thinks Barnett's motivation gives him the edge.

"i'm going to go with chris chris barnett here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Chris Barnett

The Guru picks Chris Barnett, praising his taekwondo and stand-up skills despite his appearance. He criticizes Gian Villante's lack of conditioning and commitment, noting Villante's poor performances. The Guru believes Barnett has takedown defense and power, predicting a first-round KO, possibly via a wheel kick or spinning back kick to the body.

first round ko, wheel kick, spinning back kick to the body
"I'm gonna go with chris barnett here i trust chris barnett to get this one done."
LOSS vs Ben Rothwell
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Rothwell 0 60 of 101 59% 72 of 120 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:03
Chris Barnett 0 33 of 85 38% 34 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Rothwell 0 30 of 51 58% 42 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:48
Chris Barnett 0 16 of 43 37% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Ben Rothwell 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Chris Barnett 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Rothwell 60 of 101 59% 47 of 88 10 of 10 3 of 3 54 of 94 6 of 7 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 33 of 85 38% 20 of 69 4 of 5 9 of 11 31 of 81 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Rothwell 30 of 51 58% 20 of 41 8 of 8 2 of 2 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 16 of 43 37% 10 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 6 14 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ben Rothwell 30 of 50 60% 27 of 47 2 of 2 1 of 1 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 17 of 42 40% 10 of 34 3 of 3 4 of 5 17 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady confidently picks Rothwell, expecting an early finish via knockout or submission. He notes Barnett's low level of competition and tendency to give up his back, while Rothwell's experience and power should be enough. He suggests an inside-the-distance prop.

Rothwell by first-round knockout; inside the distance
"i still think he has what it takes to beat chris barnett and he should absolutely finish chris barnett here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Cody Saftic picks Ben Rothwell, noting that Barnett is a short, overweight heavyweight with poor cardio. He believes Rothwell will weather Barnett's early athleticism and then tire him out, eventually getting a TKO or submission. Saftic is intrigued by Rothwell by submission at 11-1, given Rothwell's history of submissions, but acknowledges Barnett has never been submitted. He suggests a small play on the prop.

Rothwell by submission (11-1), Rothwell by TKO
"ben rothwell submission 11-1 tell me why that's a bad idea"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Daniel Levi leans toward Ben Rothwell, noting that Rothwell has more UFC experience and that Chris Barnett has been knocked out by lesser competition. However, he is hesitant because Rothwell is at the worst point of his career, slow, and has not looked good in a long time. He calls it a dog or pass situation and says he cannot lay the price on Rothwell.

"i think that this is a fight ben rothwell can win man um it's just that trusting rothwell at that price you can't do it these are heavyweights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Matt picks Ben Rothwell to win by decision, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Chris Barnett is a live dog due to his deceptive athleticism and power, but thinks Rothwell's experience and clinch work will be enough. He is not trusting Rothwell at -310, as Rothwell doesn't always let his hands go. He expects a grinding decision rather than a finish.

"i do like ben rothball to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Paul Shaughnessy picks Rothwell but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Rothwell is past his prime and has looked slow, but Barnett is a short-notice replacement with a history of gassing. He believes Rothwell will eventually get the win, but at -300, he prefers to pass or look for a prop. He mentions that Rothwell by knockout is around even money, which might be a better play.

Rothwell by knockout (plus money)
"i'm going to pass on that i don't want ben roethlit three to one but yeah i can't deny he's the rightful favorite he's the rifle pick so i'll go with roswell"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Ben Rothwell

The MMA Guru predicts Ben Rothwell will win by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He expects Chris Barnett to come out wild with spinning attacks and big bombs in the first round, but will gas out due to short notice and poor conditioning. Rothwell will then take him down and finish with ground and pound in the second round.

"i'm going to go with ben rothwell in the second round by ground and pound tko"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo sides with Martin Buday's power and the bookies, but is uncertain. He notes that Chris Barnett is athletic and dynamic, but Buday has heavy hands and technical striking. He mentions that Barnett was a step behind in his last fight until landing a spinning back kick. He considers live betting Barnett if he starts getting ahead on strikes.

considers live betting Chris Barnett if he starts to get ahead
"i honestly don't know what to do here but today's power is scary but chris's athleticism can absolutely get him for the win but for right now i'm gonna side with the power and the bookies"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by finish inside the distance, likely in the second round. He notes Buday is a natural heavyweight with a size advantage, good takedowns, and a brown belt in BJJ. He expects Buday to push Barnett against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground and pound or a submission. He criticizes Barnett's ground game and size disadvantage.

win inside the distance, round 2
"i like boudoir here i like him quite a bit i think he's going to finish uh barnett in that second round whether it's ground and pound or submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, noting his size and clinch game. He thinks Buday can control Barnett against the cage and grind him down. However, he acknowledges Barnett's striking power and unpredictability.

"i will go boody um but with barnett he's a freak show he'll bring the entertainment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage and ability to wear on opponents with clinch work and knees to the thigh, as seen in his Contender Series win. He notes Buday gets hit but is tough, while Barnett is deceptively athletic for his size but likely to be overwhelmed by Buday's size and pressure. Levi is rooting for Barnett but picks Buday.

Mentions Buday's knees to the thigh and clinch work
"I'm gonna go with martin buday for the win."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He notes the fight is low-level heavyweight with high variance. He mentions Barnett by knockout as a potential prop but is not confident.

Barnett by knockout +350 (not yet available)
"i'll say dogger pass low level heavyweight fight dog money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday despite wanting Chris Barnett to win. He notes Buday's size and clinch pressure, and that Barnett struggles when pressured and against high pace. He expects Buday to win a 30-27 unanimous decision by clinching and grinding.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i am going with martin bidet getting this one done by pressuring chris barnett against a cage maybe by a decision"