UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz to win by third-round knockout. He believes Frankie Edgar is on his way out at 38 years old, questioning his durability and chin. Munhoz has excellent takedown defense (81%) and is dangerous on the ground with a guillotine, so Brady expects the fight to stay on the feet where Munhoz throws more volume and hits harder. He notes Munhoz has never been knocked out or submitted, while Edgar has been knocked out twice.

Daniel Levi picks Pedro Munhoz to win by first-round stoppage. He argues that Frankie Edgar has not evolved his style since 2010, relying on pitter-patter boxing, while Munhoz has devastating calf kicks, one-punch power, and a world-class guillotine. Levi notes Edgar's durability has declined with age and that dropping to bantamweight removes his speed advantage. He believes Munhoz will pressure Edgar and finish him early, similar to the Korean Zombie fight.

Pedro Munhoz is the pick because Frankie Edgar is 38, cutting to 135 for the first time, and has shown dwindling durability after the Korean Zombie loss. Munhoz's calf kicks and power punching will be too much for Edgar, who struggles to close distance without eating shots. Munhoz's guillotine threat also neutralizes Edgar's wrestling. Expect a finish inside the distance, likely by TKO in the second or third round.

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz, citing Frankie Edgar's history of KO losses and damage taken, and the disadvantage of moving down in weight. He praises Munhoz's iron chin, pressure, and body work, predicting a late first-round or early second-round TKO after Edgar shoots for a takedown.

Big Brady picks Joe Solecki to win by decision. He notes Hubbard has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by everyone in the UFC. Solecki has good wrestling and is slick on the ground with transitions to the back. On the feet, Hubbard has the advantage, but Brady expects Solecki to go for takedowns early and control the fight, provided his cardio holds up. He mentions Hubbard's win over Max Rohskopf is overrated because Rohskopf had only one round of gas.

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki to win, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu and control on the ground. He notes that Solecki's takedowns may not be elite but he can get the fight to the mat, and Hubbard has been outgrappled before. Levi acknowledges Hubbard's improved conditioning and volume striking but believes Solecki will get takedowns early, build a lead, and survive the third round. He mentions Solecki's dominant performance against Matt Wyman as evidence.

Solecki has great wrestling and jiu-jitsu, but his cardio and ability to finish are questionable. Hubbard has good leg kicks, cardio, and takedown defense, having survived wrestlers like Marco Madsen. Solecki should grind out a decision if he can maintain top control, but Hubbard's gas tank and striking could make it close. I'm pumping the brakes on Solecki until he proves more.

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard, citing his counter-grappling skills and takedown defense as seen in the Mark Madsen fight. He believes Hubbard can avoid submissions and reverse positions, eventually breaking Solecki down for a third-round TKO. He also notes Hubbard's reach advantage and that he should be the favorite.

Big Brady picks Mariya Agapova to win by first-round knockout. He sees no path to victory for Shana Dobson, who was knocked out in the first round by Priscila Cachoeira, a fighter not known for power. Agapova is a much better fighter with more upside, and Brady expects her to finish early. He is considering betting under 1.5 rounds or Agapova in round one.

Daniel Levi picks Mariya Agapova to win by vicious finish, likely in the first round. He notes Agapova is a long, lefty striker with power and a Euro Joanna vibe, and that Shana Dobson has no business in the UFC, having been dominated in her last two fights. Levi expects Agapova to march Dobson down and finish her, possibly earning another $50k bonus. He jokes that the only question is whether it will be a head kick, body shot, or rear-naked choke.

Agapova is a massive favorite against Dobson, who is on a three-fight losing streak and below .500 in the UFC. Agapova has power, movement, and confidence, and should easily finish Dobson early. The best bet is Agapova inside the distance, likely by submission in the first round. Avoid parlaying her straight due to poor value.

The MMA Guru picks Mariya Agapova to win by first-round finish, calling it a mismatch. He notes Agapova's dominance over Hannah Cifers and Dobson's weak competition (combined 4-4 record of her wins). He predicts a first-round TKO or submission within the first two minutes.

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by second-round knockout. He was surprised by the line (-185) and thinks it's a little wide, but after watching tape, he believes Rodriguez is the more talented fighter with better durability and volume (9.5 significant strikes per minute). Sato has been rocked multiple times and knocked out before, including by Ben Saunders. Rodriguez has never been finished. Brady expects Rodriguez to land a knockout in the later rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision. He notes Rodriguez has underrated boxing and high volume, while Grant is a power-punching specialist with low output and long layoffs due to shoulder surgery. Levi believes Grant needs a knockout to win, as he tends to lose rounds when he doesn't land big shots. He expects Rodriguez to outwork Grant and stay upright even if clipped.

Rodriguez is a southpaw with a great jab and power in his left hand, and he trains with Joe Schilling. He's efficient and calm under pressure. Sato has power but is more linear and hittable. Rodriguez should keep Sato at range and finish him in the second round. The under 2.5 rounds is also intriguing at -130.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez (though he initially says Jared Gooden vs Dwight Grant, then corrects to Daniel Rodriguez vs Takashi Sato). He favors Rodriguez due to his superior striking volume, chin, and pace, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes Sato's lack of top competition and Rodriguez's recent win over Tim Means.

Big Brady picks Mizuki Inoue to win by decision. He questions Amanda Lemos' cardio, noting she looked tired in the Leslie Smith fight and was finished in the second round. Inoue has never been finished in 19 fights, has a good submission game, and survived five rounds against Jana Roba. Brady believes if Inoue can survive the first round, she will take over in the second and third, possibly getting a late finish.

Daniel Levi picks Mizuki Inoue to win a close decision. He notes Inoue has underrated boxing, high volume, and durability, and that she trains with top guys in New York. Levi acknowledges Lemos's power and improved cardio after dropping two weight classes, but believes Inoue's experience and pace will overwhelm Lemos in the later rounds. He mentions that Lemos's win over Granger was a split decision that should have been a clear loss, and that Inoue's pressure will be key.

Inoue is an efficient in-and-out striker with good footwork and striking defense. Lemos has power but questionable cardio, having gassed in her UFC debut. Inoue can survive the first round and then take over as Lemos fades. Inoue's submission defense is also solid. Expect Inoue to win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Mizuki Inoue despite thinking she lost her last fight. He credits her experience, reach, and takedown defense, predicting a unanimous decision. He acknowledges Amanda Lemos is dangerous and suggests a small underdog bet on Lemos might be worthwhile.

Big Brady picks Jordan Wright to win by knockout, expecting an early finish. He is not impressed with Ike Villanueva, who looked awful against Chase Sherman, landing only 20 strikes before getting knocked out. Wright is faster and has power, though he has fought mostly nobodies. Wright is coming up from 185 to 205, but Brady likes his style and expects him to land a shot and finish Villanueva.

Daniel Levi picks Ike Villanueva to win by knockout. He notes that Jordan Wright is too small for light heavyweight, weighing in at 200 pounds, and lacks the toughness to compete in the UFC. Levi believes Villanueva has better size and experience, and that this is likely the only fight Villanueva will win in his UFC career. He expects a sloppy fight but sees Villanueva's power and durability as decisive.

Wright is explosive, fast, and has knockout power, while Villanueva is 36 and was just finished by Chase Sherman. Wright's speed and footwork should be too much for Villanueva, who has durability issues. Expect a first-round KO from Wright. If Wright comes out as an underdog, he might be worth a small bet.

The MMA Guru picks Jorge Gonzalez (Jordan Wright) over Ike Villanueva, criticizing Villanueva's poor UFC debut against Chase Sherman and his 16-10 record. He praises Gonzalez's competition, including a win over undefeated Marcos Rodriguez via first-round rear-naked choke, and predicts a first-round submission or TKO.

Big Brady picks the underdog Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Minus opened as a -365 favorite but has dropped to -125, which Brady finds insane. Semelsberger comes forward, lands more power shots, and has the power advantage. Minus sits back and picks shots from the outside. In the small cage, Semelsberger's pressure will be effective. Brady admits both are low level and he wouldn't be confident in either, but he likes Semelsberger's style.

Daniel Levi leans toward Carlton Minus via decision. He notes Minus is longer, pumps out the jab, and has more experience, while Semelsberger has power but is green and lacks wrestling. Levi cautions that Semelsberger hits like a truck and could make Minus hesitant, but expects Minus's volume to win two of three rounds if he doesn't get wobbled.

Minus has smoother stand-up and a better jab, as seen in his last fight. Semelsberger has power but questionable takedown defense and technical ability. Minus should outpoint Semelsberger over three rounds, possibly finishing late. The under 2.5 at +160 is also worth considering.

The MMA Guru picks Carlton Minus to win by first-round TKO, citing Minus's better competition and Semelsberger's lack of quality wins. He notes Semelsberger has been KO'd before and finds his resume unimpressive. He also mentions Semelsberger's intimidating look but dismisses it as insufficient.

Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win by decision. He acknowledges that Trevin Jones has good wrestling and might get a takedown or two, but Valiev is better everywhere—on the feet and on the mat. Jones made mistakes on the mat against lower-level guys, getting reversed and swept, which Valiev will capitalize on. Brady finds it hard to see a path to victory for Jones.

Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev to win by unanimous decision. He notes Valiev is well-rounded, fast, and has a Russian coast style that is hard to prepare for on short notice. Levi points out that Trevin Jones is taking the fight on short notice after a year layoff, and that Valiev has been in a training rhythm. He expects Jones to be hesitant and frustrated, losing a decision.

Valiev is the more proven fighter with a judge-friendly style, but the line is too wide. Striegl is a promising newcomer with a huge frame and decent skills, but his competition has been weak. Valiev should win by decision, but there are too many question marks to bet him confidently. Avoid parlaying Valiev.

The MMA Guru picks Timur Valiev, citing his superior competition history, including fights in PFL and WSOF, and a longer camp due to originally being scheduled against Jamal Emmers. He notes Valiev's strength advantage at bantamweight and considers him a top prospect. He dismisses Mark Streagle's competition level as inferior.