Career Averages - Trevin Jones
Career Averages - Timur Valiev
Trevin Jones - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 26 of 33 | 78% | 33 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 20 of 69 | 28% | 30 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 17 of 19 | 89% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 26 of 33 | 78% | 8 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Trevin Jones | 20 of 69 | 28% | 9 of 50 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 17 of 19 | 89% | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 7 of 24 | 29% | 1 of 13 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Trevin Jones | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Trevin Jones | 11 of 36 | 30% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt because he is the better fighter everywhere, but he is not betting on him due to his questionable chin. He notes that Garbrandt dominates until he gets hit, and Trevin Jones has real power. Angelo hopes Garbrandt can have a resurgence like Glover Teixeira.
Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt but is hesitant due to his chin issues. He notes Garbrandt is the much better fighter with speed, volume, and wrestling, but his durability is a major concern. He acknowledges Trevin Jones has power and has never been knocked out. He predicts a decision win for Garbrandt, but admits a knockout loss wouldn't be surprising.
Cody picks Garbrandt but is very hesitant due to his compromised chin. He thinks Garbrandt's wrestling and technical boxing give him the edge, and that Jones's low volume and lack of setup make him less dangerous. He expects Garbrandt to win by decision if he fights smart.
Connor picks Trevin Jones because he doubts Cody Garbrandt's ability to stick to a disciplined, low-risk gameplan. He notes that Garbrandt has never shown he can fight a patient, three-round kickboxing match without getting frustrated and aggressive, which plays into Jones's counter-punching strengths. Connor also points out that Garbrandt's durability has declined, making him vulnerable to getting caught and finished.
Jacob picks Cody Garbrandt as the better fighter but is wary of his chin and tendency to load up. He believes Garbrandt should use a point-fighting strategy and mix in takedowns. Jacob will not bet on Garbrandt and needs to see him prove his chin again.
Garbrandt has a huge technical striking advantage and should be able to beat Jones to the punch. However, his durability is a major concern and Jones has power. Garbrandt likely wins by second round KO or decision, but it's stressful to bet on him as a favorite.
Paul has a small sprinkle on Garbrandt by decision at +500. He thinks Garbrandt's wrestling and smart game plan could lead to a decision win, but acknowledges the chin risk. He says it's a dicey bet and he's prepared to lose.
The MMA Guru picks Trevin Jones as an underdog, citing Garbrandt's inactivity, multiple KO losses, and tendency to get caught. He believes Jones can catch Garbrandt on the chin and win by KO.
Zane also picks Trevin Jones, agreeing with Connor that Garbrandt's mental fragility and tendency to make mistakes under pressure make him unreliable. He emphasizes that Jones is tough, has good timing, and can capitalize on Garbrandt's lapses. Zane notes that while Garbrandt has the tools to win if he fights smart, history suggests he will revert to aggression and get caught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 1 | 73 of 119 | 61% | 119 of 171 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 7:07 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 11 of 57 | 19% | 15 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 33 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 1 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 38 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 48 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 73 of 119 | 61% | 51 of 95 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 41 |
| Trevin Jones | 11 of 57 | 19% | 5 of 47 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 |
| Trevin Jones | 4 of 18 | 22% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 24 of 40 | 60% | 18 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 21 |
| Trevin Jones | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 35 of 56 | 62% | 25 of 45 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 14 |
| Trevin Jones | 5 of 27 | 18% | 3 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot features two men that could really use a win to turn things around. Both Barcelos (16-3, 5-2 UFC) and Jones (13-8, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) have lost two fights in a row, which means that one man’s losing streak will be coming to an end in the next 15 minutes. The bantamweights calmly walk forward without touching gloves in front of referee Keith Peterson, and there are no fans in the building nor is there any nonsense. It takes 20 seconds for either fighter to engage, with a head kick coming from the Brazilian to lead things off. Jones responds with a swinging punch, and Barcelos is quicker with a few short strikes. Jones kicks low, and the two feint and fake at one another until a front kick from Barcelos impacts on the body. Another head kick gets blocked by Jones, and Barcelos spams a third to end up hitting air. Barcelos charges in forward for a takedown, and Jones gets pushed into the wall but ultimately prevents himself from getting grounded. Barcelos releases him and resets, and he unloads a pounding kick to the ribcage. Jones looks for his own kick, and it goes on the outside of the Brazilian’s lead leg. Dueling front kicks come from the bantamweights, with Barcelos the one that lands. Jones chips at the lead calf with his shin, and he ducks into a crisp right hook. Barcelos lets a head kick fly, and Jones is able to block it in the nick of time. Jones comes out throwing haymakers, but Barcelos’ high guard defends against the strikes and allows him to clip Jones with a left. Barcelos moves to take things down, and as soon as they hit the mat, Jones scrambles and gets to his knees. Barcelos fishes for a choke with his right arm around the neck, but he lets it go to slug Jones in the face and lower Jones to the ground. Barcelos, in half guard, works the side with punches as he softens Jones up and tries to pass guard as the same time. The Brazilian succeeds in passing to full mount, and he presses his forearm on the throat in the form of an Ezekiel choke that makes Jones twist and buck to protect his neck. Barcelos sits up and slashes down with elbows, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 2
Like the previous round, the two are cautious to engage with much to start the second round. Jones waits with his left hand cocked back, while Barcelos jabs with a few kicks. When Jones reaches out with a right hand, Barcelos loops his own hook around the high guard and dings Jones cleanly. Barcelos swarms him with three punches, and he leaps in the air with a knee that bounces off Jones’ dome. Barcelos lands and pushes Jones back to the wire, but there is no takedown to be had, so he scores a right hand on the break. Jones backs away when a right bears down on him, but he is not keeping Barcelos honest with his own offense. Barcelos strings several kicks together to the leg and body, and a head kick follows suit. Barcelos unloads with a huge right hand from up close, and “5 Star” crumbles to the floor. Barcelos swarms him and arcs down some elbows, while Jones clings to his man so that he does not get pounded out. The Brazilian manages to land a few more elbows before standing up, and he leaps down to get in a better position. As Jones scrambles, he gives up his neck, and Barcelos grabs a guillotine choke. The submission is used to push Jones down to his knees, and he considers a rear-naked choke while hanging on from above. Jones turns around to protect his neck, and as he does, Barcelos rains down several elbows. Multiple unanswered right hands slam into the face of Jones, and the strikes have opened a cut up on the scalp of Jones. The Guam native throws his legs up for a high guard into a triangle, but Barcelos ignores it so that he can beat down Jones with vicious elbows. Before Barcelos can get the finish, Jones is saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Round 3
Barcelos is amped up to start off the final frame, and he cuts Jones off and tags him with a left hand. Jones fires back with a kick, but Barcelos is able to intercept him with a huge right hook. Jones reels and gathers his thoughts to launch a broad uppercut, and the Brazilian shifts his head just enough to avoid the blow. Barcelos leaps forward into a left hand, and Jones tries to roll with it but still takes the brunt of it flush. Jones gets his bearings back and walks into a left hand, and he tries to connect with a right hand but gets cracked with a pair of punches that buckle his knees. Jones desperately shoots for a takedown, and the Brazilian stuffs it and pushes him back to the wall. A pair of powerful right hands to the body bend Jones over, but Jones otherwise defends the remainder of Barcelos’ assault until Barcelos backs off. Jones sticks a left high, and the two punches he fires off after whiz past Barcelos’ head. A loud right hand to the body forces Jones to double over again, and Barcelos lets him get his steam back. Barcelos counters a looping left hand with a knee up the middle, and it collides square into the cup. Peterson halts the action immediately, but Jones only needs 20 seconds to catch his breath before he signals he is good to go. When they resume, Barcelos shoots in for a takedown, and he lands in full mount position. Jones hand-fights to protect himself from the oncoming strikes, and when Barcelos breaks the grip, he settles for wrapping his arms around Barcelos’ waist. Barcelos postures up and delivers a little ground-and-pound, and he moves from side control to the other side as he rains down brutal elbows. The elbow barrage continues while Jones shifts and attempts to stand up, and Barcelos does everything he can to go home early. The stoppage does not materialize as Jones keeps moving enough to show he is still intelligently defending himself, and he reaches the final bell in what may be a moral victory.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Trevin Jones via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
Cody picks Trevin Jones by knockout, noting that Jones hits hard and Barcelos has been taking a lot of damage recently. He expects Barcelos to be winning the minutes until he gets caught. He is tempted by the +575 knockout prop but is not as confident as his Trinaldo bet. He suggests playing the moneyline instead of the prop to avoid a decision loss.
Paul picks Raoni Barcelos by unanimous decision, expecting him to outwork Trevin Jones with higher output, better footwork, and superior hand combinations. He acknowledges Barcelos has slowed down slightly but believes his technical boxing and well-rounded game will be enough to win rounds. He notes Jones has power but low volume, and Barcelos has never been knocked down, so a decision is likely.
The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, believing he is the more consistent and skilled fighter. He notes that Barcelos looks like his old self when allowed to fight at his own pace, and Trevin Jones lacks the volume and pressure to exploit Barcelos's cardio issues. He thinks Barcelos will win a clear decision, as Jones is sloppy and gets backed up easily. He includes Barcelos in his parlay and calls him a favorite double-up.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javid Basharat | 0 | 62 of 178 | 34% | 62 of 178 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 89 of 164 | 54% | 89 of 164 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 24 of 72 | 33% | 24 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javid Basharat | 62 of 178 | 34% | 33 of 142 | 16 of 23 | 13 of 13 | 61 of 177 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 89 of 164 | 54% | 52 of 119 | 21 of 28 | 16 of 17 | 79 of 154 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javid Basharat | 18 of 47 | 38% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 31 of 57 | 54% | 18 of 40 | 10 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Javid Basharat | 20 of 59 | 33% | 10 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 27 of 44 | 61% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Javid Basharat | 24 of 72 | 33% | 14 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 31 of 63 | 49% | 19 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Javid Basharat, praising his constant movement and ability to avoid power while getting his own takedowns. He notes that Trevin Jones is dangerous but Basharat's wrestling and distance management should be the difference. He acknowledges the Contender Series fade narrative but dismisses it.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Javid Basharat to win a close decision. He acknowledges Basharat's impressive Contender Series performance but has concerns about his level of competition. He notes Trevin Jones has power and a black belt in BJJ, but his UFC performances have been inconsistent (getting beaten up before scoring knockouts). He thinks Basharat can get takedowns and control the fight, but it's a tough call.
Cody is confident in Basharat, citing his well-rounded skills and Jones' limitations. He notes Jones' power but believes Basharat's distance and timing will prevail. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
Daniel Levi picks Javid Basharat, praising his length, pace, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Basharat fights with his hands down a bit, which could be a concern against Trevin Jones's power, but believes Basharat will win the minutes and overwhelm Jones. Levi thinks Jones's last performance was poor and that Basharat will come forward and knock him out.
Basharat is a Contender Series alum with a diverse finishing ability and good takedown defense. He is a slick striker who uses range well and can scramble. Jones may land takedowns but will struggle to hold him down and has cardio issues. Basharat is predicted to win by second-round TKO or submission.
Paul is confident in Basharat, citing his well-rounded skills and Jones' limitations. He notes Jones' power but believes Basharat's distance and timing will prevail. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat over Trevin Jones, favoring his grappling-heavy approach. He notes that Jones has knockout power but was swarmed in his last fight, and he trusts Basharat's grappling to control Jones for three rounds. He predicts a 30-27 decision, with Basharat outgrappling Jones and not getting finished. He acknowledges possible octagon jitters but believes Basharat's grappling will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 70 of 112 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 8:59 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 123 of 163 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 4 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 34 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 35 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 38 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 12 of 31 | 38% | 6 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Trevin Jones | 36 of 65 | 55% | 21 of 48 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 46 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 10 of 23 | 43% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Trevin Jones | 28 of 49 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 7 of 13 | 53% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Jones, expecting him to be a favorite. He praises Jones' durability, BJJ black belt, and knockout power, noting his comeback wins. He thinks Kakhramonov's wrestling won't be effective and that Jones will capitalize as the fight goes on.
Kakhramonov is a solid replacement with power and a judo background, but he can be wild. Jones has knockout power and decent BJJ. I think Jones catches him and knocks him out, but I'm wary of the unknowns. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as I expect a finish from either side.
Paul leans toward Kakhramonov as a big underdog, noting his solid performance against Umar Nurmagomedov and potential holes in Jones' game. He expects Kakhramonov to be a sizable dog and would be drawn to that side, but acknowledges the short notice and weight cut concerns.
The MMA Guru picks Trevin Jones to win by KO. He praises Jones' toughness and power, noting his ability to find one-shot knockouts. He expects Kakhramonov to be overaggressive on short notice, and Jones will crack him with a check hook or similar shot in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 43 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 23 of 30 | 76% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 40 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 28 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 21 of 42 | 50% | 11 of 27 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 23 of 30 | 76% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 17 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 18 of 34 | 52% | 9 of 21 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 16 of 21 | 76% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 10 | 14 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones, citing Bautista's superior striking and volume advantage. He notes that Jones is very hittable, absorbing 9.45 significant strikes per minute in his last fight, and that Bautista has a massive striking and volume edge. He acknowledges Jones is tough and has never been knocked out, so he predicts a decision win for Bautista.
Daniel picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's higher volume and overall better skills. He notes that Trevin Jones' win over Timur Valiev was a lucky upset and that Bautista is the better fighter if he doesn't get caught with a big shot.
Bautista is an aggressive striker with great Muay Thai, using all eight limbs effectively. He has a height advantage and trains at MMA Lab with other fighters on the card. The host believes Bautista has Trevin Jones covered everywhere and predicts a first-round submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones. He notes that Jones was dismantled by Timo Vallev until a lucky shot, while Bautista's only loss is to Cory Sandhagen. He believes Bautista is technically superior and will win by unanimous decision, as Jones is tough but Bautista is more patient and younger.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 1 | 66 of 93 | 70% | 66 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 1 | 53 of 74 | 71% | 53 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 66 of 93 | 70% | 28 of 50 | 25 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 60 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 26 of 50 | 52% | 21 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 53 of 74 | 71% | 26 of 43 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 47 of 67 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 13 of 19 | 68% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 18 of 26 | 69% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win by decision. He acknowledges that Trevin Jones has good wrestling and might get a takedown or two, but Valiev is better everywhere—on the feet and on the mat. Jones made mistakes on the mat against lower-level guys, getting reversed and swept, which Valiev will capitalize on. Brady finds it hard to see a path to victory for Jones.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev to win by unanimous decision. He notes Valiev is well-rounded, fast, and has a Russian coast style that is hard to prepare for on short notice. Levi points out that Trevin Jones is taking the fight on short notice after a year layoff, and that Valiev has been in a training rhythm. He expects Jones to be hesitant and frustrated, losing a decision.
Valiev is the more proven fighter with a judge-friendly style, but the line is too wide. Striegl is a promising newcomer with a huge frame and decent skills, but his competition has been weak. Valiev should win by decision, but there are too many question marks to bet him confidently. Avoid parlaying Valiev.
The MMA Guru picks Timur Valiev, citing his superior competition history, including fights in PFL and WSOF, and a longer camp due to originally being scheduled against Jamal Emmers. He notes Valiev's strength advantage at bantamweight and considers him a top prospect. He dismisses Mark Streagle's competition level as inferior.
Timur Valiev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 2 | 70 of 107 | 65% | 87 of 128 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 72 of 150 | 48% | 75 of 155 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 30 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 3 | Jack Shore | 2 | 29 of 42 | 69% | 38 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 70 of 107 | 65% | 46 of 81 | 15 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 54 of 89 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 |
| Timur Valiev | 72 of 150 | 48% | 23 of 83 | 26 of 40 | 23 of 27 | 67 of 144 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 24 of 37 | 64% | 12 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 30 of 58 | 51% | 8 of 27 | 12 of 18 | 10 of 13 | 28 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 17 of 28 | 60% | 9 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 21 of 41 | 51% | 4 of 19 | 7 of 12 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Shore | 29 of 42 | 69% | 25 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 11 |
| Timur Valiev | 21 of 51 | 41% | 11 of 37 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jack Shore with a slight edge, citing the home crowd advantage and the fact that Trevin Jones was able to take down Valiev, suggesting Shore can too. He notes that both fighters are grapplers who struggled in their last fights, but he trusts Shore's wrestling and thinks the London crowd will give him extra juice.
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win a close decision, acknowledging it's an unpopular pick. He favors Valiev on the feet due to his volume and mixing of tools, and believes Valiev's scrambling ability will allow him to get back up if taken down. Brady notes Jack Shore's best win was a split decision against Hunter Azure and that Shore has not faced a step-up in competition like Valiev. He also mentions Valiev's chin is a concern but doesn't think it will be an issue here.
Cody leans Valiev, citing his speed and striking advantage. He thinks Shore's wrestling might be neutralized and that Valiev's chin is a concern but he has good recovery. He is surprised by line movement and may wait for weigh-ins.
Daniel Levi picks Jack Shore, citing his undefeated record, strong grappling stats (5 takedowns per 15 minutes, 100% takedown defense), and the hometown advantage in the UK. He believes Valiev's best chance is a close decision, but judges will favor Shore in a close fight. Levi also notes that Valiev has been knocked down before and that Shore's submission threat is real. He expects a submission or dominant decision.
Jack Shore is a 15-0 prospect with excellent wrestling and top control, able to drag fights to the ground and dominate. Valiev is more of a flashy striker but can grapple if needed, though he lacks crazy knockout power. Shore's takedowns should be effective, and he can grind out a decision. The line movement from +150 to +100 reflects public support, and I understand why. I like Shore to grind out Valiev over 15 minutes.
Paul picks Shore, emphasizing his undefeated streak, excellent wrestling, and pace. He thinks Valiev has cardio and chin issues, and that Shore's volume and pressure will win rounds. He believes the British judges will favor Shore in a close fight.
The Guru picks Jack Shore as an underdog, citing his grappling pressure and reach advantage. He believes Timur Valiev slows down in fights, as seen against Trevin Jones and Chris Gutierrez. He predicts Shore will grind on Valiev against the cage, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke in round three. He notes Shore's youth and undefeated record.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 2 | 69 of 131 | 52% | 81 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 77 of 190 | 40% | 77 of 190 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 2 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 47 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 31 of 84 | 36% | 31 of 84 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 69 of 131 | 52% | 50 of 110 | 8 of 10 | 11 of 11 | 53 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 18 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 77 of 190 | 40% | 38 of 137 | 18 of 28 | 21 of 25 | 73 of 185 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 18 of 47 | 38% | 7 of 32 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 35 of 60 | 58% | 29 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 28 of 59 | 47% | 13 of 40 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 27 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 22 of 45 | 48% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 31 of 84 | 36% | 18 of 65 | 3 of 7 | 10 of 12 | 31 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
One of the more highly anticipated matchups of the fight card will treat fans next, as two men on lengthy unbeaten streaks in Barcelos (16-1, 5-0 UFC) with nine and Valiev (17-2, 1 NC; 1-0, 1 NC UFC) with eight lock horns. The bantamweight horn-locking will draw oversight from referee Mike Beltran, who sees the two rising stars avoid touching horns – gloves, rather – before coming out swinging. Barcelos feints and fakes his way in, and his movements alone draw reactions out of the Dagestan native. Valiev flings a head kick that is well off the mark, and there is a tense staring contest playing out in the middle of the cage. Valiev finally reaches out with a string of jabs, and only one finds its target. Valiev shrugs off a leg kick and loads up on a right hand, but he is met with a high kick. Valiev gives him one back, and Barcelos marches in to throw but comes up short. The Brazilian scores a quick counter right hand when Valiev charges him, and he gets off a solid jab as well. They clash together without much of note, and Valiev zips a body kick out before Barcelos can stop it. Valiev attacks the calf before blitzing in with a pair of strikes, and Barcelos sees him coming and swipes him away. Barcelos whiffs with an uppercut and pushes Valiev into the wire, where he grinds him for a moment before they break apart. Both trade body kicks, and Barcelos is able to follow his with one to the inside leg. A front kick from Valiev lands straight to the body, and he steps back to avoid counter punches. Valiev chops down the lead leg, only to absorb a kick to his liver. Barcelos rings home a right hand, and he gets popped with a sudden superman punch but does not show any immediate concern. Valiev tries to dodge a few punches, and when he does, Barcelos kicks his leg. Valiev shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and the Brazilian stuffs him with his back against the cage. Valiev holds on to this position in the waning seconds, and gets off a knee to break free right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Valiev
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Valiev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Valiev
Round 2
Barcelos is the first to lead off with a leg kick in the beginning of the round, and when a soaring head kick comes up short, Valiev hops forward to kick his inside leg. Barcelos tries to pin a one-two on the chin, but the Russian is out of harm’s way in time. Valiev ducks down to threaten a takedown, and Barcelos stops it and lands a right hand. Valiev ducks a huge punch and tries to fire back, and the bantamweights are elusive and energetic as they dodge and weave. Valiev sneaks in a few leg kicks, and he ducks the punches that come his way. “Lucky” scores a huge punch that was not lucky right on the chin, and Barcelos eats it like an acai bowl and stuffs the subsequent takedown attempt. Valiev tries to pin him down with another one of these looping shots, but this time, Barcelos sees it coming and evades it. Barcelos reaches out with a front kick, and Valiev responds with one to his foe’s lead leg. Single strikes are largely the method of attack so far, with one landing and the other trying to give it back. Barcelos gets cracked with a right hand in a combination, and he walks through it to score a stiff uppercut. Barcelos looks to capitalize on that with another, but it hits nothing but air. Valiev looses a leg kick and a high kick before Barcelos can react, and Barcelos is aiming with power punches that have some heat on them. Valiev hops forward and gets countered, but he slips a punch and lands one of his own. Both trade body kicks, and Valiev catches it and tries to take his man down. Barcelos rolls through and gets up, where they deliver kicks to the body. Barcelos cracks Valiev with a huge right hand, and Valiev gets knocked off his feet and chased to the ground. As Valiev sits up, Barcelos blasts him with an uppercut that nearly separates Valiev from his consciousness. Beltran implores Valiev to fight back, and Barcelos continues his barrage of strikes from on top as he climbs into half guard. Valiev survives to the bell, and struggles to get back to his feet but makes it to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
Valiev begins the round with a leg kick, and he might not have his wits about him but he is throwing hard right out of the gate. Valiev ducks down for a takedown, and Barcelos staves it off and aims a counter uppercut that glances off Valiev’s chin. The Russian falls off-balance throwing a right hand, and a leg kick scores shortly after. Blocking a head kick, Valiev continues to chip at his opponent’s lead leg a few more times. Valiev walks face-first into another uppercut, and Barcelos has timed the strike and watches Valiev’s head bob to land it a few times. As Valiev succeeds with a right hand, Barcelos nearly kicks Valiev’s leg out from beneath him with a kick that he turns his hips into. Valiev plants a one-two on the chin, and Barcelos’ face is showing some damage but his resolve is not shaken. Valiev puts several punches together, and he ends a combination with an elbow as Barcelos marches him down. Barcelos’ head movement keeps him out of harm’s way, but he reaches out with a right hand and gets snared into a double leg takedown attempt. The Brazilian hops his way to the fence and yanks his leg free, and Valiev circles on the outside before trying again. Barcelos stops it with ease, but he absorbs a right hand. Valiev keeps volume going, with punches, kicks, spinning back fists and whatever he can come up with at the time. Both men land power punches at the same time, and Valiev gets the worst of the exchange but it does not hurt him. The Russian backs off with a leg kick, and Barcelos replies in kind. As Barcelos lands a strike, Valiev is able to get off two or three in the same span, even if they may not be as individually damaging. Barcelos stings him with a right hand, and a left gets Valiev’s attention. Valiev is not concerned, throwing back with quick punches to keep his man at bay. Both leap at one another at the same time, and when they land, that is the last bit of offense until the final horn concludes the match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Valiev (29-28 Valiev)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Valiev (29-28 Valiev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Valiev (29-28 Valiev)
The Official Result
Timur Valiev def. Raoni Barcelos via Majority Decision (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Timur Valiev, calling him the best underdog on the card. He believes the line is too wide and that Valiev is very good. He has a moneyline bet and a prop bet on Valiev. He notes that Valiev will definitely win a round, so the +3.5 bet is a good play.
Big Brady picks Raoni Barcelos to win by decision, calling him the real deal with no holes in his game except maybe cardio. He notes Barcelos's excellent striking defense (67%), positive strike differential, and strong wrestling/ground game. He thinks Barcelos will mix in takedowns and control the fight, while Valiev is a good striker but has been taken down before. He expects a high-level fight but Barcelos to win the first two rounds and get a decision.
Cody is a big fan of Barcelos, calling him a 'created character' with elite striking, wrestling, BJJ, cardio, and chin. He criticizes the UFC for not giving Barcelos ranked opponents. He acknowledges Valiev's early pressure and unorthodox strikes but believes Barcelos's durability, cardio, and ring IQ will allow him to take over after the first round. He suggests live betting after the first round if Valiev looks competitive.
Jacob picks Timur Valiev, stating he was going to pick the underdog regardless because he thinks it's an even matchup. He notes Barcelos' grappling ability but believes Valiev's striking is good enough to win. Jacob has Valiev in his lineup.
Barcelos is a notch ahead in striking, especially with his Muay Thai. He throws great combinations ending with leg kicks, while Valiev is more explosive in bursts. Barcelos' volume and impactful shots will outwork Valiev's wild spinning attacks. Both have good grappling, so the fight stays standing, and Barcelos' style is more efficient. The line is too wide but Barcelos still wins.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Barcelos. He notes Barcelos's well-rounded skills and that Valiev fades after the first round. He thinks Barcelos's durability and pace will be too much for Valiev, who has lost as a big favorite before. Paul also mentions that Barcelos has been matched tough but always finds a way.
The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos by close unanimous decision (29-28), citing his experience and leg kicks reminiscent of Jose Aldo. He notes Valiev's hesitancy after his no-contest with Trevin Jones and believes Barcelos will grind out a win by landing more damaging blows. He expects a razor-close scrap but favors Barcelos' proven track record.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 55 of 76 | 72% | 115 of 149 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 11:19 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 21 of 25 | 84% | 57 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 22 of 33 | 66% | 30 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 55 of 76 | 72% | 37 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 16 | 20 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 43 |
| Martin Day | 8 of 28 | 28% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 12 of 18 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Martin Day | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 21 of 25 | 84% | 18 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 18 |
| Martin Day | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 22 of 33 | 66% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 22 |
| Martin Day | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev, citing his higher output, better fight IQ, and advantages everywhere on the feet and on the mat. He notes that Valiev was winning his last fight before getting caught, and that Martin Day is 0-3 in the UFC with questionable fight IQ. He expects Valiev to win a dominant decision, but warns that the odds may be too high to bet.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev confidently, citing his dynamic and well-rounded game. He notes Valiev's loss to Trevin Jones was due to gassing out while trying to finish, and expects a more measured approach. He believes Valiev's striking and takedown ability will overwhelm Martin Day.
Valiev is a well-rounded fighter with good kicks and solid wrestling. Day has lost three straight and makes poor decisions, like leaving his neck exposed in submissions. Valiev's striking and grappling should be too much. However, the line is expected to be very high (around -400), so there is no betting value. I expect Valiev to win by decision.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Timur Valiev, calling this a 'lamb for slaughter'. He notes Valiev's high-level competition and only two losses, one a split decision to Chris Gutierrez which he avenged. He believes Martin Day is on a losing streak and took this fight on short notice, predicting a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 1 | 66 of 93 | 70% | 66 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 1 | 53 of 74 | 71% | 53 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 66 of 93 | 70% | 28 of 50 | 25 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 60 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 26 of 50 | 52% | 21 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 53 of 74 | 71% | 26 of 43 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 47 of 67 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 13 of 19 | 68% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 18 of 26 | 69% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win by decision. He acknowledges that Trevin Jones has good wrestling and might get a takedown or two, but Valiev is better everywhere—on the feet and on the mat. Jones made mistakes on the mat against lower-level guys, getting reversed and swept, which Valiev will capitalize on. Brady finds it hard to see a path to victory for Jones.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev to win by unanimous decision. He notes Valiev is well-rounded, fast, and has a Russian coast style that is hard to prepare for on short notice. Levi points out that Trevin Jones is taking the fight on short notice after a year layoff, and that Valiev has been in a training rhythm. He expects Jones to be hesitant and frustrated, losing a decision.
Valiev is the more proven fighter with a judge-friendly style, but the line is too wide. Striegl is a promising newcomer with a huge frame and decent skills, but his competition has been weak. Valiev should win by decision, but there are too many question marks to bet him confidently. Avoid parlaying Valiev.
The MMA Guru picks Timur Valiev, citing his superior competition history, including fights in PFL and WSOF, and a longer camp due to originally being scheduled against Jamal Emmers. He notes Valiev's strength advantage at bantamweight and considers him a top prospect. He dismisses Mark Streagle's competition level as inferior.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win by decision. He acknowledges that Trevin Jones has good wrestling and might get a takedown or two, but Valiev is better everywhere—on the feet and on the mat. Jones made mistakes on the mat against lower-level guys, getting reversed and swept, which Valiev will capitalize on. Brady finds it hard to see a path to victory for Jones.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev to win by unanimous decision. He notes Valiev is well-rounded, fast, and has a Russian coast style that is hard to prepare for on short notice. Levi points out that Trevin Jones is taking the fight on short notice after a year layoff, and that Valiev has been in a training rhythm. He expects Jones to be hesitant and frustrated, losing a decision.
Valiev is the more proven fighter with a judge-friendly style, but the line is too wide. Striegl is a promising newcomer with a huge frame and decent skills, but his competition has been weak. Valiev should win by decision, but there are too many question marks to bet him confidently. Avoid parlaying Valiev.
The MMA Guru picks Timur Valiev, citing his superior competition history, including fights in PFL and WSOF, and a longer camp due to originally being scheduled against Jamal Emmers. He notes Valiev's strength advantage at bantamweight and considers him a top prospect. He dismisses Mark Streagle's competition level as inferior.
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