UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 6"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 27
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Gabriella Fernandes
3.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
5.31 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.42 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carli Judice
9.32 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
6.62 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.52 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Gabriella Fernandes
Moneyline
BetMGM -160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +460
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetWay +163
Carli Judice
Moneyline
FanDuel +140
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetRivers +235
Gabriella Fernandes - Fight History
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
KO R1 3:11 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 1 25 of 66 37% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gabriella Fernandes 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 1 25 of 66 37% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gabriella Fernandes 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 3 of 6 6 of 6 25 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 8 of 33 24% 3 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 3 of 6 6 of 6 25 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 8 of 33 24% 3 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.

"I'm going to lean Gabriella here because I think the threat of power and Casey's long layoff... might have her a little timid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.

Fernandes by decision
"I'm going to lean Fernandez here. ... I think she wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.

"Casey O'Neill for me. I think she gets the win here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.

"I'll take O'Neal too. At least I do feel I can trust her to play her game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.

"I'm going to lean ever so slightly towards the physicality, the activity and the ever-improving and evolving game of Gabriella Fernandez to be the difference here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.

decision
"I'm going to go with the latter of the two here as O'Neal wins by judges decision pulling off the upset there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.

"I'll pick Gabriela Fernandes, but I have next to no conviction there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.

decision
"I am going to go with Gabriella Fernandez, though."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.

"I have to pick O'Neal here. Just to swarm, create ugly clinches and make one of those clinches work."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 59 of 114 51% 59 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 61 of 161 37% 64 of 167 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 18 of 43 41% 19 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
3 Gabriella Fernandes 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 24 of 71 33% 26 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 59 of 114 51% 38 of 91 15 of 17 6 of 6 58 of 112 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 61 of 161 37% 28 of 117 13 of 20 20 of 24 56 of 154 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 19 of 45 42% 10 of 35 9 of 10 0 of 0 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 19 of 47 40% 9 of 32 1 of 3 9 of 12 19 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 38 60% 14 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 23 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 18 of 43 41% 9 of 32 1 of 3 8 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gabriella Fernandes 17 of 31 54% 14 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 24 of 71 33% 10 of 53 11 of 14 3 of 4 19 of 66 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her powerful striking and decent jiu-jitsu. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but has sloppy striking and is either armbar or nothing. Angelo believes if Gabriella can defend takedowns, she will beat Julija up and potentially finish her. He started with low confidence but moved to medium confidence.

"I think Gabriella, assuming she could defend the takedowns here, is going to beat the hell out of Julia and potentially finish her."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Big Brady is confident in Gabriella Fernandes, describing Julija Stoliarenko as the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC with only an armbar threat. He notes Stoliarenko has no striking, no wrestling, and has been finished multiple times. Brady believes Fernandes will dominate on the feet and can also do damage on top if the fight goes to the ground. He predicts Fernandes will knock out Stoliarenko in the second round.

second round knockout
"I like Fernandez here. I think she knocks out Ranken. I'll say second round knockout for Gabriella Fernandez."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The host highlights Fernandes' striking advantage and physicality, expecting her to keep the fight standing and pick apart Stoliarenko from distance. He predicts a headkick knockout, showing confidence in a finish.

by KO (headkick)
"I think the striking advantage and physicality of Fernandez will allow her to keep this fight standing where she'll be able to pick apart stolen from distance and eventually line up a headkick to produce a knockout victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her recent win over Wang Cong and her solid jiu-jitsu. He believes Stoliarenko is a finish-or-be-finished fighter but Fernandes has the grappling to avoid submissions. He predicts a first or second round finish for Fernandes.

Fernandes wins by finish in round 1 or 2; also bet on Fernandes fight time under 10 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think she will find the finish in the first or second round here."
WIN vs Wang Cong
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:49 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 46 of 111 41% 48 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 1 18 of 59 30% 19 of 61 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 56 41% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 6 of 26 23% 7 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 1 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 46 of 111 41% 15 of 66 21 of 32 10 of 13 46 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wang Cong 18 of 59 30% 13 of 50 2 of 3 3 of 6 18 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 56 41% 7 of 30 12 of 19 4 of 7 23 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wang Cong 6 of 26 23% 5 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 3 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 55 41% 8 of 36 9 of 13 6 of 6 23 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wang Cong 12 of 33 36% 8 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Angelo is very confident in Wang Cong, citing her kickboxing background and power. He believes Fernandes will struggle with Wang's power and resort to desperate takedowns. He calls it one of his most confident picks on the card.

"Wang should absolutely smoke her here the power is nuts"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Big Brady picks Wang Cong to win by decision. He thinks Wang is the better striker and also has a sneaky path to victory via takedowns, as Fernandes can be taken down and controlled on the mat. Despite the massive -800 line, Brady expects Wang to get it done, likely on the feet or with grappling.

"I like Wong here I think this this Line's crazy but you know Wong should get it done and probably by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Cody agrees, calling Wang a legitimate prospect with world-class kickboxing. He notes that Fernandes has been taken down and outstruck in recent fights, and Wang's physicality in the clinch will be too much. He expects Wang to win big, possibly by knockout or even submission, as she continues to develop her grappling.

"Everybody Wang Kong tonight I agree let's just keep the party rolling"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Connor also picks Wang, comparing her to a more athletic Yan Xiaonan with less experience. He notes that Fernandes is not a great grappler but a physical fighter, and Wang's athleticism and striking should prevail. Connor acknowledges that Wang's ground game could implode under pressure but thinks it's unlikely against Fernandes. He agrees the odds are too wide.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I gotta agree with the Wang pick. It is too wide. Wang has had six pro fights and the best fighter she ever fought was Wu Yanan, who is terribly unathletic."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Daniel Vreeland picks Wang Cong despite the steep -800 line. He highlights her clean kickboxing, having beaten Valentina Shevchenko in a kickboxing match, and her well-rounded game including takedowns. He acknowledges Gabriella Fernandes' power and improving get-up game but sees a clear technique gap. He expects Wang Cong to pick her apart, though not necessarily with a highlight-reel KO.

"I will pick Hong Wong to get this dub I simply think she's cleaner"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

James leans towards Wang Cong as a real prospect, but admits he hasn't done full tape study. He notes Wang's striking and thinks Fernandes is not a great fighter, but the -800 price is too high to bet. He may look for a decision or KO prop after further research.

"right now the pick is Kong Wang I think she could be the real deal"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Paul picks Wang Cong confidently, noting her elite striking and improving grappling. He points out that Fernandes is not a strong grappler and has been outmuscled in the clinch. He expects Wang to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees this as a showcase fight to build her up.

Wang Cong by knockout
"Wang Kong is the pick Wang Kong by knockout probably"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

The MMA Guru picks Wang Cong confidently, citing her aura, power, KO ability, and kickboxing background. He mentions she knocked out Victoria Leonardo and beat Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. He acknowledges Gabriella Fernandes is strong and athletic but lost to Jazzy Decious and Theresa Bleda. He predicts a KO win for Wang Cong.

KO
"I'm GNA have to go with Kong Wang to win this fight and I'm going to say that she gets the KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Zane picks Wang Cong, citing her superior striking speed, power, and form. He notes that Fernandes is a cumbersome striker who will likely get countered repeatedly. Zane also mentions that Wang showed composure when grappled in previous fights, which should help against Fernandes' physical but not elite grappling. However, he warns that Wang is untested and the odds are too wide.

Wang opened -667, now -862; some books as wide as -1200. Fernandes opened +418, now +605. Zane says 'it is too wide' and notes Wang has only had six pro fights.
"I gotta take Wang. It is really hard for me to see Fernandes walking forward throwing arm punches by the bucket and not think that she will get countered over and over again really hard."
WIN vs Carli Judice
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 169 of 323 52% 186 of 345 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:04
Carli Judice 0 119 of 234 50% 126 of 245 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 63 of 143 44% 64 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carli Judice 0 43 of 91 47% 44 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 27 of 51 52% 40 of 69 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:45
Carli Judice 0 41 of 67 61% 45 of 73 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:52
3 Gabriella Fernandes 0 79 of 129 61% 82 of 132 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Carli Judice 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 169 of 323 52% 110 of 251 42 of 55 17 of 17 149 of 297 20 of 26 0 of 0
Carli Judice 119 of 234 50% 89 of 198 21 of 25 9 of 11 95 of 200 24 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 63 of 143 44% 41 of 114 14 of 21 8 of 8 55 of 133 8 of 10 0 of 0
Carli Judice 43 of 91 47% 36 of 81 5 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 77 9 of 14 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 27 of 51 52% 19 of 40 6 of 9 2 of 2 23 of 45 4 of 6 0 of 0
Carli Judice 41 of 67 61% 32 of 58 7 of 7 2 of 2 28 of 51 13 of 16 0 of 0
3 Gabriella Fernandes 79 of 129 61% 50 of 97 22 of 25 7 of 7 71 of 119 8 of 10 0 of 0
Carli Judice 35 of 76 46% 21 of 59 9 of 11 5 of 6 33 of 72 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.

"Gabriella is going to be the pick but this is a razor thin fight that should be 50/50"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.

"I'm going to take Gabrielle Fernandez to have a coming out party for once instead of spending 12 minutes off her back."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.

"I think that Gabriela Fernandez uh gets back on track here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.

"This should be a Gabriella play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.

"I do think the power explosiveness and physicality of Fernandez will end up being the Difference Maker in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.

"for me it's going to be CF do win in doubt CF do."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.

"I'll go Karly judis over gabriellea Fernandez"
LOSS vs Tereza Bledá
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tereza Bledá 0 57 of 99 57% 181 of 235 3 of 10 30% 0 0 10:51
Gabriella Fernandes 0 23 of 47 48% 47 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tereza Bledá 0 13 of 35 37% 56 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:02
Gabriella Fernandes 0 6 of 13 46% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tereza Bledá 0 14 of 21 66% 38 of 47 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:29
Gabriella Fernandes 0 2 of 4 50% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Tereza Bledá 0 30 of 43 69% 87 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:20
Gabriella Fernandes 0 15 of 30 50% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tereza Bledá 57 of 99 57% 38 of 70 12 of 18 7 of 11 17 of 56 7 of 7 33 of 36
Gabriella Fernandes 23 of 47 48% 11 of 34 5 of 6 7 of 7 22 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tereza Bledá 13 of 35 37% 5 of 21 3 of 7 5 of 7 7 of 29 2 of 2 4 of 4
Gabriella Fernandes 6 of 13 46% 1 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tereza Bledá 14 of 21 66% 9 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 10
Gabriella Fernandes 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tereza Bledá 30 of 43 69% 24 of 35 4 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 21 0 of 0 20 of 22
Gabriella Fernandes 15 of 30 50% 10 of 24 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Angelo is torn on this fight. He notes that Tereza Bledá has the grappling blueprint to win, but she is only 21 and could get overzealous. Gabriella Fernandes is a powerful striker and a plus 235 underdog, which feels wide. Angelo mentions a prop bet idea: if Jasmine wins, bet on Gabriella inside the distance/decision no action. He hasn't pulled the trigger yet and is waiting for props to drop.

if Jasmine wins bet on Gabriella inside the distance decision no action
"Gabriella Fernandez honestly might be a solid Underdog here at plus 235 because she's got the hands and Teresa Blazer is only 21 years old"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Big Brady picks Tereza Bledá to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Fernandes is skilled on the feet with fast kicks and power, but has terrible takedown defense and ground game. Bledá can wrestle and grapple, and her ground and pound is dangerous. Brady recalls that Jasmine Jasudavicius almost finished Fernandes from crucifix, and Bledá is more dangerous than Jasudavicius. However, he worries about Bledá's cardio after she gassed in her UFC debut. If her cardio holds or she gets an early finish, she should win easily.

"I'll say blade does get that first round finish takes his fight down to the mat and finishes Gabriella Fernandez shortly after."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Cody picks Bledá but is not confident at the price. He notes she is very strong, can bulldoze into the clinch, and has a path to victory by pressing Fernandes against the cage and scoring takedowns. However, she is only 21, green, and has zero striking. He compares her to Miranda Maverick, who had all pre-fight advantages but none in the fight. He thinks the price is too high for a risky grappling-dependent fighter.

"I'm gonna pick her I think she gets the win but I think if you ran it through Pac-Man's model of plus money underdogs and deal with wmma this is a bad price tag for Teresa Plata"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Connor picks Fernandes, noting that while both fighters are limited, Fernandes is more polished on the feet and has shown decent takedown defense. He worries about Bledá's gas tank and believes if Fernandes can avoid being taken down early, she can outwork Bledá over three rounds. Connor acknowledges Bledá's physical strength but thinks Fernandes's technique and patience will be the difference.

"I think Fernandez has an understanding of some of the basics."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Daniel Levi leans toward Tereza Bledá, citing her takedown ability and top control. He notes Fernandes's poor takedown defense and get-up game. However, he is hesitant because Fernandes has dangerous striking and Bledá's top game may not be as good as Jasmine's. He expects Bledá to win via control but won't bet at the current price.

"I think bladea should get it off top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Bledá is far superior to Fernandes and will eventually get takedowns and grind her out. Fernandes is a striker who struggles off her back. Bledá's cardio is a concern but she should have an easier time corralling Fernandes than she did against Natalia Silva. Bledá wins inside the distance, likely by submission in round 2.

Bledá wins inside the distance, round 2
"I'm gonna go with her winning inside the distance but uh inside the distance probably by round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

Paul is hesitant, noting that Bledá's path to victory is to muscle Fernandes against the cage and hold her there, which is risky and relies on judges appreciating cage control. He thinks the price is too high for such a one-dimensional approach. He picks Bledá but is not interested in betting.

"you're kind of like it's a risky you're hoping the judges uh cage side are digging the the cage control"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tereza Bledá

The MMA Guru essentially flips a coin for this fight, admitting he has no logical breakdown. He notes Tereza Bledá is 21 with time to improve, and her losses to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Natalia Silva are not bad. He decides to pick Bledá after a failed coin flip, but with no confidence.

"I'm flipping a Sprite can for it... well forget it then we'll go with uh Teresa blader"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Zane picks Fernandes, citing her sharper striking and movement compared to Bledá's raw physicality. He notes that Bledá is young and strong but lacks technique, and Fernandes has the power to hurt her. Zane is concerned about Fernandes's grappling defense but believes she can stuff takedowns and let Bledá tire herself out. He expects Fernandes to win by decision or late TKO if she stays patient.

"I guess for now I'm just going to take that rail to Fernandez until I see something else out of Blader."
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 24 of 54 44% 149 of 215 4 of 8 50% 0 0 11:31
Gabriella Fernandes 0 26 of 56 46% 54 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 8 of 22 36% 44 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:58
Gabriella Fernandes 0 12 of 27 44% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 6 of 12 50% 58 of 80 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:22
Gabriella Fernandes 0 9 of 13 69% 19 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 10 of 20 50% 47 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:11
Gabriella Fernandes 0 5 of 16 31% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 24 of 54 44% 17 of 46 3 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 40 1 of 1 7 of 13
Gabriella Fernandes 26 of 56 46% 10 of 37 8 of 10 8 of 9 25 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 8 of 22 36% 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 12 of 27 44% 5 of 17 3 of 5 4 of 5 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 9 of 13 69% 3 of 7 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 13
Gabriella Fernandes 5 of 16 31% 2 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriella Fernandes Hermogenes vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hermogenes (-125), Jasudavicius (+105)

Round 1
Keeping the prelims pushing forward, two flyweights will enter the cage as Jasudavicius (7-2, 1-1 UFC) collides with Fernandes (8-1, 0-0 UFC). Neither woman has ever been finished, so referee Chris Tognoni is in this for the potential long haul. Although the Brazilian fighter offers a clap of hands, Jasudavicius has no interest in meeting it. The newcomer comes out throwing feet, reaching Jasudavicius a few times with head kicks that collide off the guard but still have an impact. Fernandes scores a solid one-two that shakes up Jasudavicius, but the Canadian gathers her thoughts and plods forward. Jasudavicius scores a single right hand, only to be met with a speedy high kick. Circling on the outside, Fernandes picks at her foe with kicks and reaching punches, all while staying out of the way from most of the offense coming back her way. Fernandes dings the Canadian with a left hand, and she sinks another one in before Jasudavicius rushes forward in pursuit of a clinch. Jasudavicius secures a body lock and looks to take Fernandes for a ride, but the Brazilian fighter keeps her balance and muscles her way to remain standing. While Jasudavicius cannot ground her opponent on the first or second attempt, she doggedly continues to push for it until she drags Fernandes to the mat. Jasudavicius climbs into an awkward half-guard position to keep Fernandes pinned down, and she drops down short left hands to stave off any referee intervention. Fernandes scoots all the way to put her seat against the fence and push off the wall, and Jasudavicius steps over to get to the side and drop down strikes. Before she can unload, Fernandes ties her down with a reverse triangle, keeping her there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fernandes
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius

Round 2
Jasudavicius looks to push the pace to begin the round, only to get stood straight up when absorbing a fierce barrage of punches and high kicks to drive her back and loosen her top. Jasudavicius resets it against the fence, and she times a clean right hand down the pipe to rock Fernandes. The Brazilian woman blinks the stars out and powers Jasudavicius around in the clinch, but she gets bullied back to the wall before long. Like the last round, Jasudavicius calmly works until securing the takedown, and she lands in half guard to flatten Fernandes out. Jasudavicius covers her foe’s mouth and uses shoulder pressure to fluster Fernandes, all while staving off guard recovery attempts from the Brazilian. Jasudavicius slides into side control and grinds her elbow or palm on the face and staying heavy as possible. Fernandes bucks and kicks, but Jasudavicius manages to work a knee up to isolate Fernandes’ right arm and set up a crucifix. Jasudavicius unleashes a storm of short but pummeling elbows on Fernandes’ forehead, doing so until Fernandes partially recovers position. Jasudavicius gets the crucifix again and fastens her legs around Fernandes’ left arm to lock it down further, where she can open up with more elbows on the dome. Each elbow is not individually damaging, but they add up fast and force Tognoni to take a very close look at the action. Fernandes explodes frantically, forcing Jasudavicius to stand up right as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-8 Jasudavicius

Round 3
The ladies start off the final frame swinging ferociously. Fernandes lands with heavy power, getting Jasudavicius’ respect early, but not slowing her down. Jasudavicius plows forward to try to trip Fernandes down, but Fernandes circles on the outside and pops her with a right hand. The Canadian is a woman possessed when going for a takedown, and she scoops Fernandes up with a single and gingerly deposits her on the floor. Fernandes defends with an arm under the neck but no serious guillotine choke, and she sits up against the fence to try to stand up. The Brazilian leans back to try to cinch up the guillotine, and Jasudavicius stays completely calm and punches the side a few times without too much concern for the choke. Jasudavicius moves to side control on the opposite side while Fernandes hangs on, and the Canadian has a possible Von Preux choke should she wish to secure it. Fernandes lets the grip go, and Jasudavicius slides right to half guard to keep the Brazilian flat on her back. This positional control, with light ground-and-pound with a left hand every so often, allows Jasudavicius to peel precious seconds off the clock and virtually guarantee herself a victorious evening. Fernandes defends from most of the ground strikes, keeping her face from eating unnecessary strikes, and she bucks her hips and pushes her feet off the chest to push Jasudavicius back to her feet. Jasudavicius turns the corner and drops down with a surge of powerful hammerfists, and she sways past an upkick and lands hammerfists right to the bell. When time expires, Jasudavicius graciously lifts her former opponent back to her feet, and she runs off triumphantly with her hands in the air.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Jasudavicius)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (30-27 Jasudavicius)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (30-26 Jasudavicius)

The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Gabriella Fernandes via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Fernandes. He emphasizes that Jasudavicius needs to develop a more aggressive mindset to walk through punches and get to her clinch, but she hasn't shown that. He notes that Jasudavicius was put off by Silva's speed and couldn't time her punches, and that she needs a 'Julianna Peña' mentality. He also mentions that Jasudavicius's other loss to Alyssa Kraus is further evidence of her getting scared off her game.

"I'll stick with you on this and go with Fernandez as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Zane picks Fernandes despite acknowledging Jasudavicius has a clear wrestling advantage. He notes that Jasudavicius is a slow, ponderous striker with awkward form, and that Fernandes manages distance well and has good output. He believes Jasudavicius will struggle to close the distance and get to her top game, and that Fernandes is solid enough on the ground to survive. He also points out that Jasudavicius has a history of being put off by opponents who fire back, as seen against Natalia Silva.

"I guess I will take Fernandez, which is unusual when I'm looking at a matchup where one person seems to have a clear wrestling advantage."
Carli Judice - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carli Judice 0 36 of 122 29% 46 of 138 2 of 13 15% 1 0 3:38
Juliana Miller 0 79 of 185 42% 104 of 214 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carli Judice 0 10 of 25 40% 15 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:58
Juliana Miller 0 18 of 40 45% 37 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
2 Carli Judice 0 17 of 58 29% 18 of 61 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Juliana Miller 0 35 of 89 39% 36 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carli Judice 0 9 of 39 23% 13 of 45 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:40
Juliana Miller 0 26 of 56 46% 31 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carli Judice 36 of 122 29% 24 of 100 11 of 20 1 of 2 29 of 109 7 of 13 0 of 0
Juliana Miller 79 of 185 42% 53 of 143 20 of 34 6 of 8 75 of 180 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carli Judice 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 4 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 19 4 of 6 0 of 0
Juliana Miller 18 of 40 45% 11 of 29 5 of 9 2 of 2 14 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Carli Judice 17 of 58 29% 12 of 50 4 of 7 1 of 1 15 of 53 2 of 5 0 of 0
Juliana Miller 35 of 89 39% 26 of 72 8 of 14 1 of 3 35 of 88 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Carli Judice 9 of 39 23% 6 of 31 3 of 7 0 of 1 8 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
Juliana Miller 26 of 56 46% 16 of 42 7 of 11 3 of 3 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Angelo picks Carli Judice, citing her superior striking, good volume, and takedown defense. He notes Juliana Miller has heart but lacks skill and hasn't improved. He mentions a potential prop bet on Miller plus 3.5 if she wins a round, but his clear pick is Judice.

Mentions betting plus 3.5 on Juliana Miller if she wins a single round, but does not recommend it.
"Carli Judice is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Big Brady picks Carli Judice to defeat Juliana Miller, calling it a 'sanctioned murder.' He notes Miller has terrible striking defense (36%) and was pieced up by Luana Santos, who is not a good striker. He believes Judice is physically strong, has good takedown defense, and superior striking with phenomenal volume. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly by head kick or knee, and thinks it could be a mercy stoppage.

Carli Judice by first-round knockout
"I think Karolina Jedrzejczyk is knocking out Juliana Miller though um in Houston. I'll go first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Cody thinks Judice's striking and athleticism will be too much for Miller. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and linear movement. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO.

"Jud's kicks this thing off. Is the line too wide for a women's MMA fight? 100%. But it doesn't change the fact that Jud is probably going to win this fight more often than not."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carli Judice

Connor picks Judice, comparing her technical footwork to Duane Ludwig. He notes she shifts to cut angles and outmaneuver opponents, which has improved since her debut. Miller is tough but can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will easily outclass her.

"I think she should go out there and just style on miller all day. I expect that she will she has been looking fantastic"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Carli Judice

James picks Carli Judice to win by knockout, citing her massive striking advantage over Miller. He notes that Miller is multiple levels below Judice on the feet and that her only hope is grappling, which Judice has defended well. James expects Judice to land a TKO.

"My prediction is going to be a knockout win, TKO win for Kari Judies."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Judice is a talented striker with good takedown defense, as shown in her recent wins. She should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Miller, who is mediocre on the feet. Miller will try to grapple, but Judice has improved her grappling defense and should get back to her feet. Expect a TKO in the second or third round as Miller fades.

under 2.5 rounds at -180
"I'm going to start off this card with a big favorite getting the dub here with Carly Judis winning by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Paul agrees, citing Judice's improvement and Miller's lack of wrestling. He thinks Miller's only path is takedowns, but Judice's striking will be too much. He expects Judice to win comfortably.

"She probably wins 70 80% of the time. So, it's like even at like plus 500, I don't think there's that much if any value on Juliana Miller."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The MMA Guru believes Carli Judice is a much more technical fighter with a significant striking advantage over Juliana Miller. He notes that Judice arguably won her Contender Series fight and her UFC debut, and has since finished her last two opponents via TKO. He expects Judice to break Miller down with body work, specifically knees, front kicks, and teeps, leading to a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO, work to the body, knees to the body, front kicks, teeps
"I'm going to bet that Karolina Judice wins this fight via second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carli Judice

Zane picks Judice emphatically, noting she has improved dramatically as a technician, especially her footwork. She runs circles around opponents and negates power disadvantages. Miller can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will tear her apart. Zane expects Judice to style on Miller.

"I think carly judas is gonna tear to pieces. Oh, absolutely"
KO R3 1:30 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carli Judice 1 109 of 225 48% 117 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Nicolle Caliari 0 32 of 101 31% 35 of 104 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carli Judice 0 38 of 78 48% 44 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Nicolle Caliari 0 11 of 40 27% 13 of 42 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:48
2 Carli Judice 0 47 of 108 43% 49 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Nicolle Caliari 0 16 of 51 31% 17 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Carli Judice 1 24 of 39 61% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Nicolle Caliari 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carli Judice 109 of 225 48% 85 of 193 24 of 32 0 of 0 96 of 210 10 of 12 3 of 3
Nicolle Caliari 32 of 101 31% 26 of 85 3 of 12 3 of 4 30 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carli Judice 38 of 78 48% 26 of 62 12 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 70 5 of 7 1 of 1
Nicolle Caliari 11 of 40 27% 8 of 32 2 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Carli Judice 47 of 108 43% 41 of 101 6 of 7 0 of 0 46 of 107 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 16 of 51 31% 13 of 44 1 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carli Judice 24 of 39 61% 18 of 30 6 of 9 0 of 0 18 of 33 4 of 4 2 of 2
Nicolle Caliari 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolle Caliari vs. Carli Judice
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-278), Caliari (+225)

Round 1
It’s time for another pay-per-view, this time with no divisional belt on top. While there may be a “BMF Title” exchange at night’s end, the promotion has already shown that it can be taken and bestowed to any match that needs a marketing boost. Additionally, its holder does not surrender it on a loss like a linear belt, making it a shiny, expensive trophy that tends to involve a celebrity draping it around the victor. That celebrity tonight will likely be Lil Wayne. Before all that, we have a bakers’ dozen matchups to plow through. Flyweights will be first to the cage, as head kick aficionado Judice (4-2, 1-1 UFC), who trains out of Headkicks MMA, battles Brazil’s Caliari (8-3, 0-1 UFC). The ladies will receive oversight from referee Bassel Mahgoub to start things off, and they bump gloves to seal the cage around them.
Caliari gets right to business, chasing after “Crispy” with a combination of punches and ending it with a head kick. She pitches a similar flurry when Judice backpedals to defend herself. Judice parries the worst of the attacks and jabs out with her lead fist and front kick. Caliari crashes forward with a left hand, and Judice responds with a body kick and an overhand left. Judice splits the guard with a second punch, and she steps in to stun Caliari with a knee. Caliari responds with a tackling takedown, dragging the American to her knees for a moment. Judice wall-walks to get upright despite Caliari clinging around her waist from behind, and she fights off a few mat return efforts while leaned on the cage. The fans are quick to express restlessness, letting the flyweights have it with boos until Judice breaks away. When they reset, Judice jams Caliari in the jaw with a sharp knee.
Caliari shakes it off and pursues a half-baked takedown, and Judice stops her subsequent head-and-arm throw to put Caliari on her face. Caliari now is the one having to work to her feet, and Judice frames off by pegging her with elbows and a knee. Caliari takes a few steps back, and Judice gives chase with a front kick and a barrage of fists. Caliari tries to respond with power strikes, reddening up Judice’s nose, but she finds herself dealing with the counters that quickly come. Caliari rushes after a takedown, and Judice slings her to the floor defensively and hovers over her before standing up. Caliari thinks about another, but she is stonewalled and takes jabs on the nose. Justice sticks and moves, walking into a big right hand but giving Caliari a clean left down the middle and following it with a powerful knee. Caliari ties her up, but Judice turns her around and holds her there to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice

Round 2
The flyweights bop fists to get going, where Judice is quick to fight behind her sharp jab. She targets the damaged right eye of the Brazilian with it, working on it to make it swell more with every blow. Caliari takes a body kick and tries to catch it to get a takedown, but Judice recoils her limb and keeps peppering the face with jabs and quick follow-ups. Judice slips to the left and tags Caliari in the swollen eye socket, and she is rarely missing her strikes while her volume easily triples that of her adversary. Judice is basically engaging in target practice, with Caliari offering little resistance more than a takedown shot. Judice shuts it down quickly and pushes Caliari to the wall, where she knees her in the midsection several times. Caliari races forward for a takedown, and Judice pushes her to the floor before Caliari can even go after a leg.
Caliari stands up and starts swinging, clipping “Crispy” at the end of a left hand. She fires off a low kick, and this draws a combination in response from Judice. Caliari is putting more behind her punches, while Judice is more than happy touching her, pop pop pop and she slides to the side. The thumping sounds that echo through the building are the ferocious knees that Judice is planting on the torso, and Caliari takes them flush without flinching. Judice potshots her swelling foe with ease, ducking the counters and otherwise playing matador when Caliari winds up. Judice fakes a knee and strings together a series of punches, while dancing out of the way of the inevitable counters. Judice lets go with a high kick that is blocked, and her punches fly through the guard and onto the Brazilian’s jaw. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice

Round 3
There is one last glove touch to commence the final frame, and Caliari is wide-eyed and aware of the oncoming fire that she is about to receive. This allows her to dodge the nastiest of what Judice hurls at her, but the sheer volume from the American makes it difficult to avoid everything. Caliari plants her feet and loops a big left hand at her foe, only for Judice to ignore it and dig a few body shots. Caliari crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and she manages to ground her foe for a second. Judice explodes to her feet and starts boxing up Caliari. The combinations flow freely from “Crispy,” who is roasting her opponent from punching range. She backs Caliari up to the fencing, practically hitting a 125-pound heavy bag at this point, and
she lines up a knee up the middle. This time, Caliari ducks down for a takedown shot, and the contact is immediate and devastating. For one wild moment, Judice channels her inner Hannibal Lecter, feasting on Caliari’s liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. Somewhere in the world, Jason DeLucia screams due to phantom pains from his three encounters against Bas Rutten in years past. Judice has to do little more but drive down two academic hammerfists that make Mahgoub hurry up and stop the fight.
Just like that, Judice has earned her fifth pro victory, with all five of them coming by knockout.

The Official Result
Carli Judice def. Nicolle Caliari R3 1:30 via TKO (Knee to the Body)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.

Mentions that if odds continue to widen, a plus 3.5 bet may be worth considering.
"Carly Judice is going to be the pick. I think she's the better striker. I think she'll do a little more damage."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.

Judice by decision
"I think Judice probably should go out there and win this pretty pretty easily. ... I'm going Carly Jice to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Judice to man manage her distance, utilize her volume and output, and pick up our Caliari from distance on route to a decision victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.

"I'm going to go with Kari Judice getting this one done over Nicole Caliari."
WIN vs Yuneisy Duben
KO R1 1:40 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yuneisy Duben 0 14 of 41 34% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carli Judice 1 17 of 43 39% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yuneisy Duben 0 14 of 41 34% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carli Judice 1 17 of 43 39% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yuneisy Duben 14 of 41 34% 8 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 9 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carli Judice 17 of 43 39% 12 of 34 5 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 40 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yuneisy Duben 14 of 41 34% 8 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 9 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carli Judice 17 of 43 39% 12 of 34 5 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 40 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yuneisy Duben vs. Carli Judice
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-380), Duben (+300)

Round 1
Of all the fight cards the UFC has ever held, UFC Fight Night 254 is certainly one of them. With 10 of the 26 combatants sporting UFC records above .500, this could be one of those shows where the cut list will reach five or more players. We kick things off in the women’s flyweight division with one of those types of matches where a fighter has their back against the wall. Unbeaten Venezuelan Duben (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) may have a bit of a gaudy record, but her first five wins came against ladies with a combined record of 0-0 (and a no contest). Standing in her way with a lot on the line will be Judice (3-2, 0-1 UFC), who earned her spot on the roster with a
loss
on the Contender Series. Fists are soon to fly, and before they do, referee Mark Smith checks them in. There is a quick fist bump that precedes the action. Judice takes to the center of the cage, and Duben walks right towards her and kicks her several times on the lead leg. Judice jabs her way out of an engagement, and she snaps up a question mark kick that surprises her opponent. The Venezuelan plants her feet and throws hands, and when she scores, she circles away. Judice plants her fist on her foe’s face, and she appears more technical than Duben as her strikes are straight while Duben’s are winging and a bit sloppy. Judice cracks Duben with a straight punch combo, and she makes Duben bounce off the fencing. Duben responds with a spinning back fist, and Judice blocks the worst of it and comes out swinging. Duben ricochets off the wall again, and she punches her way out of a tough situation. Judice resets, and she marches the newcomer down and chambers her left leg.
Her shin smashes square into the chin, and Duben goes down on her side in a heap. A few follow-up punches from “Crispy” are merely academic, as Smith is rushing in between them to stop the fight.
This is a heck of a way to start the night, with Duben ejected violently out of the ranks of the unbeaten while Judice concludes her losing streak with a bang. Headkicks MMA is her team, and she represented it well with that performance.
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The Official Result
Carli Judice
def.
Yuneisy Duben
R1 1:40 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yuneisy Duben

Angelo picks Yuneisy Duben over Carli Judice. He acknowledges Judice is technically better but Duben's chaotic aggression and finishing ability sway him. He is concerned about Duben's cardio since she has never gone to a decision. He suggests an under bet as a possibility.

Under (rounds)
"I'm gonna pick Dubin based purely off of her willingness to engage."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Big Brady picks Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. He notes that Duben's level of competition is extremely low, with her opponents having almost no wins combined, and that her only notable win was a huge upset on the Contender Series where she was a +1000 underdog. In contrast, Judice's two UFC losses were competitive against solid fighters like Ernesta Kareckaite and Gabriella Fernandes. Brady believes Judice's volume, cardio, and top game will be too much for Duben, who has never seen a third round. He predicts a second-round TKO finish for Judice.

second round TKO
"I have to go judice here... give me judice here and I think she goes out there and finishes duben at some point in this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.

"Brundage, Meccanico. Brundage currently like a minus 150 favorite to come back on McConico plus 118."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The host believes Judice is the superior striker with better combinations, footwork, and range management. He expects her to set up a trap and knock out Duben within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I believe judice is the superior Striker here and I believe her ability to put together solid combinations utilize good full work utilize her range management and that should allow her to eventually set up a trap to knock Unice …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.

"Brundage, Meccanico. Brundage currently like a minus 150 favorite to come back on McConico plus 118."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yuneisy Duben

The MMA Guru picks Yuneisy Duben as an underdog, citing her undefeated record (6-0), training with Rosam Unas and Miranda Maverick, and her power to knock people out. He notes Carli Judice is rangy but lacks power in her punches, comparing her striking to early Yan Xiaonan but not at that level. He also mentions Duben's nasty KO win on the Contender Series and that she was sick three days before that fight, showing resilience. He admits he also picks her because she's attractive, but emphasizes she's well-rounded and dangerous.

"I'm actually going to go with the underdog here of Unis duben she's undefeated six and0 she trains with rosam unas... she's got power to knock people out which is impressive to me in that division of women's £1 125"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriella Fernandes 0 169 of 323 52% 186 of 345 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:04
Carli Judice 0 119 of 234 50% 126 of 245 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriella Fernandes 0 63 of 143 44% 64 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carli Judice 0 43 of 91 47% 44 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
2 Gabriella Fernandes 0 27 of 51 52% 40 of 69 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:45
Carli Judice 0 41 of 67 61% 45 of 73 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:52
3 Gabriella Fernandes 0 79 of 129 61% 82 of 132 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Carli Judice 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriella Fernandes 169 of 323 52% 110 of 251 42 of 55 17 of 17 149 of 297 20 of 26 0 of 0
Carli Judice 119 of 234 50% 89 of 198 21 of 25 9 of 11 95 of 200 24 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriella Fernandes 63 of 143 44% 41 of 114 14 of 21 8 of 8 55 of 133 8 of 10 0 of 0
Carli Judice 43 of 91 47% 36 of 81 5 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 77 9 of 14 0 of 0
2 Gabriella Fernandes 27 of 51 52% 19 of 40 6 of 9 2 of 2 23 of 45 4 of 6 0 of 0
Carli Judice 41 of 67 61% 32 of 58 7 of 7 2 of 2 28 of 51 13 of 16 0 of 0
3 Gabriella Fernandes 79 of 129 61% 50 of 97 22 of 25 7 of 7 71 of 119 8 of 10 0 of 0
Carli Judice 35 of 76 46% 21 of 59 9 of 11 5 of 6 33 of 72 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.

"Gabriella is going to be the pick but this is a razor thin fight that should be 50/50"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.

"I'm going to take Gabrielle Fernandez to have a coming out party for once instead of spending 12 minutes off her back."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.

"I think that Gabriela Fernandez uh gets back on track here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.

"This should be a Gabriella play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.

"I do think the power explosiveness and physicality of Fernandez will end up being the Difference Maker in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.

"for me it's going to be CF do win in doubt CF do."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.

"I'll go Karly judis over gabriellea Fernandez"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.

"Gabriella is going to be the pick but this is a razor thin fight that should be 50/50"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.

"I'm going to take Gabrielle Fernandez to have a coming out party for once instead of spending 12 minutes off her back."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.

"I think that Gabriela Fernandez uh gets back on track here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.

"This should be a Gabriella play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.

"I do think the power explosiveness and physicality of Fernandez will end up being the Difference Maker in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.

"for me it's going to be CF do win in doubt CF do."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.

"I'll go Karly judis over gabriellea Fernandez"