vs
+164 -190
UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 27
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Lucas Almeida
4.94 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
5.36 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Timmy Cuamba
2.77 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.58 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.31 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Lucas Almeida
Moneyline
FanDuel +164
KO/TKO
FanDuel +370
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetRivers +650
Timmy Cuamba
Moneyline
Caesars -190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +210
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
BetMGM +250
Lucas Almeida - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Aswell
KO R1 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Almeida 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 2 30 of 54 55% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Almeida 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 2 30 of 54 55% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Almeida 9 of 21 42% 3 of 14 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 30 of 54 55% 30 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 1 19 of 37 1 of 1 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Almeida 9 of 21 42% 3 of 14 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 30 of 54 55% 30 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 1 19 of 37 1 of 1 10 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aswell (-150); Almeida (+125)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims is a featherweight contest that has raised some serious eyebrows in the last 24 hours. Almeida (15-4, 2-3 UFC) appeared at the weigh-ins with a right hand the size of a balloon, but the CABMMA—the Brazilian Commission—did not seem to deem that worthy of note. The betting line for Aswell (10-3, 0-1 UFC) has skyrocketed, and the optics do not look great. Referee Jason Herzog will serve as the sole arbiter of this bout, and the athletes do opt to touch gloves.
Aswell surges out of his corner ready to trade, and he walks down the Brazilian and slugs him in the face. The shorter Aswell gets inside early, setting up a few big right hands. Almeida reels from getting tagged from the overhand rights, and his eye is showing a little swelling already. Almeida backs off putting the cage behind him, and he leans back to take the sting out of Aswell’s punches but is taking punishment. Aswell knocks Almeida to his seat with a massive right hand, and Almeida climbs back up right into the left hand of his opponent. The Brazilian tries to throw back when he can, but Aswell is beating him to the punch and hurting him practically every time he touches him.
Aswell drives down a few hammerfists, and he switches to straight-up punches and an elbow or two. Herzog asks Almeida to fight back, but he is done like dinner after multiple knockdowns and a lot of head trauma.
With Aswell seated in full mount raining down punishment, Herzog has no choice but to step in and stop the “Beatdown of the Year” candidate. Not only did it appear that Almeida could not swing his right hand, but he rarely used it to defend himself. Brazilians are no longer undefeated tonight, but Almeida have been the most vulnerable of the bunch on the card given his apparent condition.

The Official Result
Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida R1 1:42 via TKO (Punches and Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Angelo picks Michael Aswell, citing his relentless pressure and high volume of strikes. He believes Aswell's pressure will overwhelm Lucas, who will be looking for big shots and getting hit multiple times in return. He notes Aswell's insane 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute.

"Asbell's pressure is insane... Lucas will likely end up looking for big shots and while he's trying to hum a big shot, Michael Asbell is going to hit him three times."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win a decision, citing Almeida's power advantage and the fight being in Brazil. He notes Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that Almeida's big leg kicks and power shots will sway the judges. He expects a close fight going to the scorecards, with crowd reactions favoring Almeida.

"I'll say Almeida wins a decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Cody originally took Almeida but switched to Aswell, citing age and weight cut advantages. He notes Aswell's high volume and Almeida's lack of wrestling, but expects a close fight that could be influenced by Brazilian judging. He recommends the split decision prop.

split decision (+500)
"I originally took u Lucas Almeida. I think I'm reeling back from that and I'm switching the pick over to Michael Oswwell."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Manpreet picks Aswell, citing Almeida's downward trajectory and Aswell's basic but effective striking and forward pressure. He believes Aswell will walk Almeida down, land his jab and cross, and win a decision. He notes Aswell's durability and full training camp at his natural weight class.

Aswell by decision
"I think we'll see Asbell dictate this pace, keep Almeida on the back foot, and just jab and cross his way to another decision victory here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Paul picks Aswell, citing his youth, volume striking, and natural weight class. He notes Almeida's poor takedown defense and weight cut issues, but expects a close fight that could go to split decision. He suggests a split decision prop.

split decision (+500)
"I'll side with Aswell as the pick just based on the fact that yeah, one 120 130 140 150 strikes are in his wheelhouse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Michael Aswell, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Aswell couldn't finish Bellagio and has lost recently, while Almeida had a close fight with Danny Silva. He predicts Almeida wins by finish or decision as an underdog.

"I'm going to go with Lucas Almeida getting this one done by finish or by 2928 decision over Michael as well as an underdog."
LOSS vs Danny Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Silva 0 82 of 137 59% 85 of 141 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
Lucas Almeida 0 74 of 240 30% 78 of 244 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Silva 0 24 of 43 55% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Lucas Almeida 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Danny Silva 0 36 of 55 65% 36 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 29 of 89 32% 32 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Danny Silva 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Lucas Almeida 0 28 of 99 28% 28 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Silva 82 of 137 59% 45 of 96 14 of 18 23 of 23 81 of 133 0 of 2 1 of 2
Lucas Almeida 74 of 240 30% 49 of 203 14 of 23 11 of 14 73 of 239 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Silva 24 of 43 55% 9 of 27 2 of 3 13 of 13 24 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Almeida 17 of 52 32% 8 of 37 7 of 11 2 of 4 16 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Danny Silva 36 of 55 65% 21 of 38 9 of 11 6 of 6 35 of 52 0 of 1 1 of 2
Lucas Almeida 29 of 89 32% 21 of 78 2 of 5 6 of 6 29 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Danny Silva 22 of 39 56% 15 of 31 3 of 4 4 of 4 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucas Almeida 28 of 99 28% 20 of 88 5 of 7 3 of 4 28 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Danny Silva

Angelo picks Danny Silva, noting his durability and the fact that he showed wrestling as a backup plan in his last fight. He acknowledges that Silva's striking defense is terrible and he will get hit, but believes he can outlast Lucas Almeida and potentially use takedowns. He is hesitant due to Silva's poor striking defense and the high price tag.

"Danny Silva is going to be the pick but until he cleans up his striking defense he's a hard sell at minus 190 minus 180 whatever those odds are"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Danny Silva

Big Brady picks Danny Silva, citing his youth, durability, volume, and wrestling/grappling upside. He questions Lucas Almeida's ground game, noting he gets stuck on his back. He predicts Silva will mix in takedowns and submit Almeida in the second round.

Silva by submission round 2
"I like Danny Silva here this has potential to be fight of the night... give me Danny Silva by second round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

The host believes many are overlooking the Brazilian's chances, especially at plus 160 odds. He expects Almeida to utilize his Muay Thai approach to cut up Danny Silva and impress the judges, winning a decision.

plus 160 odds
"I believe a lot of people are overlooking the Brazilian chances here especially with him at plus 160 and I think we'll see him utilize that Muay Thai approach to really cut up Danny Silva make it look good enough …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Danny Silva

The Guru picks Danny Silva over Lucas Almeida. He likes Silva's toughness, grit, and cardio shown on the contender series and in his UFC debut. He views Almeida as a 50/50 fighter with mixed results, and favors the prospect Silva. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a back-and-forth scrap.

"I'm going to go Danny Silva like his striking like his durability his cardio his toughness... I think it's going to be a 2928 decision yet again."
WIN vs Timmy Cuamba
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Almeida 0 59 of 116 50% 73 of 136 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:18
Timmy Cuamba 1 70 of 196 35% 91 of 220 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Almeida 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Timmy Cuamba 1 22 of 59 37% 30 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Lucas Almeida 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Timmy Cuamba 0 32 of 84 38% 36 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Lucas Almeida 0 24 of 46 52% 38 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:18
Timmy Cuamba 0 16 of 53 30% 25 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Almeida 59 of 116 50% 35 of 87 14 of 17 10 of 12 48 of 100 0 of 0 11 of 16
Timmy Cuamba 70 of 196 35% 43 of 153 13 of 28 14 of 15 65 of 190 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Almeida 13 of 26 50% 6 of 19 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 22 of 59 37% 13 of 42 3 of 11 6 of 6 21 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Lucas Almeida 22 of 44 50% 14 of 33 3 of 5 5 of 6 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 32 of 84 38% 18 of 66 9 of 12 5 of 6 28 of 79 2 of 3 2 of 2
3 Lucas Almeida 24 of 46 52% 15 of 35 8 of 9 1 of 2 13 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 16
Timmy Cuamba 16 of 53 30% 12 of 45 1 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Timothy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cuamba (-205), Almeida (+170)

Round 1
When he punted Michael Stack at the beginning of February, “Twilight Timmy” Cuamba (8-2, 0-1 UFC) could have scarcely predicted his UFC debut would come one week later. While it did not go his way against Bolaji Oki, Cuamba gets a second chance to make a first impression. He takes on aggressive Almeida (14-3, 1-2 UFC) and his 100% finish rate. Referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat, and he tells the fighter’s it’s time to fight. The 145ers do not bother bumping fists, as Almeida wants to start something. He does that with a low kick, and he jabs the body shortly thereafter. Almeida cuts Cuamba off around the cage, walking him down and throwing a low kick. Cuamba pays him back with a speedy one-two, and he gets off a jab on the outside. Another one-two from “Twilight Timmy” finds its home on the chin, and Almeida shakes it off and continues pressuring. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and he chips at the front leg with kicks. Cuamba stands his man up with a left hand, but the right misses. On the way back, Cuamba plants a stern kick on the lead leg of his adversary. Almeida jabs with the fall of his foot, and a ferocious one-two stuns Cuamba and sits him down. Almeida tries to pound him out with ground strikes while leaning on Cuamba, but Cuamba does not go all the way down and instead muscles his way back upright. Almeida keeps firing the right hand, drawing a shot in response from the Las Vegas native. Almeida stands his foe up and knees him once before splitting off, and he returns to stalking mode. Two punches get around the guard, and Cuamba takes them flush and keeps retreating. Almeida tags him with another right hand to set him down, and Cuamba scrambles and gets up. To take some of the venom out of his foe’s shots, Cuamba presses Almeida against the cage wall for a time. Almeida escapes and starts potshotting Cuamba, until Cuamba is tired of the one-sided exchanges and starts brawling. Cuamba dislodges the mouthpiece of his foe, but Almeida puts on the pace with punches and a high kick that wraps up around the guard. Almeida ducks back to dodge a head kick, and he eats a right hand while plodding forward. Cuamba strikes the body a few times, and he makes it to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Almeida

Round 2
Almeida is loaded for bear to start off the second round, as he gets right back to cutting Cuamba off while throwing hands. Cuamba sits down on single strikes, thumping a left to the body and one to the head. Almeida lunges forward, and Cuamba counters him with a sharp left. Cuamba checks a low kick and tosses one back, and they trade jabs shortly thereafter. The jabs are landed again at the same time, and Cuamba again targets the liver with a left. Almeida steps through a punch to wing three of his own, and he scores a solid low kick. They both start swinging bungalows, and Almeida catches Cuamba with a clean left hand that drops “Twilight Timmy” to a knee. Cuamba sits up and rushes after a single-leg takedown, but Almeida is able to shove him away without much concern. Cuamba gets his sea legs with the successful dilatory tactic, but he is not slowing Almeida’s momentum. Almeida chops at his leg and walks through a jab to rifle off a right hand, and he slips a counter jab. Almeida sinks in a left hand and laughs off a leg kick, and a one-two along with two hooks at least partially connect. Almeida surges into a left hand, and he clips Cuamba once more as he lines up punches to the head and then body. Cuamba strafes away, and Almeida is on him with a left to the body and right to the head. Cuamba’s legs wobble, but Almeida is buttering his bread as he seems to find that right hand any time he wants. Cuamba scrambles to the side, and Almeida plants two fists and a head kick up top right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters reach the last round and share a brief glove touch, and Almeida returns quickly to his predatory best. Walking Cuamba down, throwing jabs, follow-up punches, leg kicks and the occasional power strike, Almeida beats Cuamba to the punch while not getting answered by anything overly concerning. Cuamba slams a kick to the ribs, but it is one-and-done as Almeida walks him down. Cuamba shoots for a single, and he drags the Brazilian to his seat but does not establish control. Almeida turns the corner and pushes down on the back of Cuamba’s head to stop him from going anywhere until he moves enough to escape and reset. Almeida jabs the head and body without fear of reprisal, and he shrugs off a front kick to pump out more jabs. Cuamba lands at the end of a right hand, drawing a wide counter from his foe. They both jab at one another, and Almeida’s range gives up the upper hand. Cuamba lands once, but Almeida rings him up for four in the same flurry. Almeida just misses with a high kick, and they double jab at one another. Almeida hacks at the front leg and absorbs a body kick, and the two start swinging recklessly. Cuamba catches his adversary with a left hook, and he moves to take the brunt out of the overhand right counter. Almeida collides his fist on the dome and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the tower, and Cuamba decides two can spin and lands his own back kick on the belly. Cuamba closes in to strike, and although Almeida lands two on the inside, Cuamba uses the momentum and a trip to put the Brazilian on the canvas. Cuamba sits up and drops down a few punches and some fierce elbows, and he looks for a finish with seconds to go and rains down blows until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba (29-27 Almeida)

The Official Result
Lucas Almeida def. Timothy Cuamba via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his deeper resume and higher level of competition. He notes Lucas is a powerful striker who comes forward, while Timmy is more technical but less experienced. He thinks Lucas's power and chin could be the difference, though Timmy's accuracy is a concern. He mentions the plus 165 odds are appealing.

Odds comment: +165
"I'm going Lucas here I think Lucas hits a little harder"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Cody picks Lucas Almeida as a dog, arguing that Cuamba is a low-volume striker who relies on a knockout and has shown poor cardio and wrestling. He notes that Almeida has better wins and has fought tougher competition, including a competitive fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Cody believes Almeida's volume and leg kicks can overwhelm Cuamba, and that the line is too wide for a fighter of Cuamba's level.

"official play here is going to be Almeida to get the upset."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Daniel Vreeland is concerned about Lucas Almeida's recent performances, noting he only landed two strikes in his last fight and looked stiff. He speculates a possible health issue. He likes Timothy Cuamba's technical soundness and ability to fight everywhere, though he's not the most physical. He believes Cuamba can pick Almeida apart and mix in wrestling.

"I'm going to go Timmy there"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Jacob picks Timmy, thinking he is the more technical striker and could mix in takedowns against Lucas's poor takedown defense. He notes Timmy held his own against Bolaji on short notice. He acknowledges Lucas is more dangerous but believes Timmy's technique will prevail.

"I like Timmy here I think he's just the more technical dude"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Cuamba's lateral movement will frustrate Almeida, opening up takedown opportunities and allowing Cuamba to land damage from distance. The line is too wide for someone taking a step up in competition, but Cuamba's potential and body of work should get the judges' favor.

line too wide
"the line a little bit too wide here for somebody who's taking a solid Step Up in competition against Almeida but I do think that Kua has more potential and his better body of work should be able to get …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Cuamba is a low-volume Contender Series guy and that he would never bet that type of fighter at minus 200. He notes that Almeida gave Zellhuber a tough fight and that plus 180 is generous. Paul thinks Almeida can win with volume and pressure.

"Almeida I mean probably his best performance... plus 180 is more than generous as far as I'm concerned."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

The MMA Guru picks Timmy Cuamba by decision. He notes Cuamba stepped up on short notice in his debut against Boki and took him to a split decision, showing composure. He thinks Cuamba has been tested and that Lucas Almeida's wins have asterisks, including a first-round KO loss to Andre Fili. He believes Cuamba's experience against a larger, powerful opponent in Boki will help him handle Almeida's physicality.

decision
"I'm going to go with Timmy kber winning this fight by decision"
LOSS vs Andre Fili
TKO (punches) R1 3:32 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.

No bet; both fighters unreliable
"I'm going to take a chance I'm going to shoot my shot on the underdog here I'm going to pick Lucas... there's not going to be a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.

"I'm going to take ALA to win this fight by knockout in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.

Andre Fili by decision
"I'm going to take fely by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.

"give me Lucas Almeida over Andre fely"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.

"I think this is a dog or pass spot... the value lies in Lucas Almeida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.

Fili by decision
"I will ever so slightly lean the fely way I'm not so happy with a chalk in this spot as if fely decides to go out there and strike with Almeida that could spell some trouble for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.

"fely is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Fili by decision (29-28)
"I am going to go with Andre Philly... I'm going to go Andre Philly gets this one done 2928 decision"
LOSS vs Pat Sabatini
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 1:48 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 27 of 35 77% 88 of 97 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:27
Lucas Almeida 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 23 of 31 74% 81 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:50
Lucas Almeida 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 4 of 4 100% 7 of 7 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:37
Lucas Almeida 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 27 of 35 77% 25 of 32 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 24 of 31
Lucas Almeida 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 23 of 31 74% 23 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 23 of 30
Lucas Almeida 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1
Lucas Almeida 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Almeida vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-190), Almeida (+160)

Round 1
In a fight that could end in the blink of an eye, submission specialist Sabatini (17-4, 4-1 UFC) takes on once-beaten finisher Almeida (14-1 1-0 UFC). Together, the two featherweights combine for 26 stoppages in their 31 pro wins, so referee Chris Tognoni could have his hands full. Before they throw down, they opt to bump fists. Almeida advances first, but Sabatini ducks any offense and pursues a quick takedown. Almeida fights off a trip attempt on the way back, and Sabatini looks for a body lock throw. Sabatini secures the drop, and he lands right in half guard while pinning Almeida to his back using his shoulder. Almeida sits up against the fence, but Sabatini hooks both his legs and peels him away from it. Sabatini smoothly maneuvers to keep Almeida trapped on the floor, and he drops down left hands. Sabatini pins Almeida’s right arm down to land several unanswered blows, and he frustrates the Brazilian with his active top control. When Almeida attempts to escape in some direction, Sabatini is aware and follows him every step of the way. Sabatini controls his foe and moves into mount briefly, while nullifying anything that Almeida can do to him. Sabatini leaps back into mount with 75 seconds left in the round, and he also traps Almeida’s arm behind the back and blasts him in the face with left hands. Sabatini hammers Almeida with a few elbows, and Almeida defenselessly takes them flush. Sabatini postures up and batters Almeida with punches and elbows, and Almeida is clinging to his foe with all he has left. Sabatini considers an armbar, but he thinks against it and elbows Almeida repeatedly. Sabatini smashes down with punches right to the bell, and Almeida has survived.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 2
Sabatini rushes out of his corner to tap gloves, and he immediately hunts for a single to make the Brazilian’s life miserable again. Almeida backs himself against the wall in defense, and Sabatini switches up to a body lock in pursuit of another trip. Sabatini drills a knee to the body and drops down low for a double, and he lets it go to snake his leg between Almeida’s. Sabatini successfully yanks Almeida to the floor, first bringing him to a knee and pushing him flat on his back. Sabatini slashes down with an elbow on the forehead to slice open a cut, and blood leaks down into Almeida’s eyes.
Sabatini transitions over to the side, man on a mission, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke while Almeida fails to clear his vision. The Philadelphia native locks it down and crushes with his shoulder and full body weight, and Almeida has no choice but to tap.
As Tognoni pulls them apart, Sabatini has just become the first fighter to ever finish the Brazilian featherweight, doing so in a spectacular and one-sided performance.

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Lucas Almeida R2 1:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini because he has a huge grappling advantage. He notes that Sabatini's chin is a concern after recent knockouts, but he has been recovering. Lucas Almeida has dangerous hands and good scramble skills, but Sabatini's takedowns and top control should be the difference. Angelo also considers a prop bet on Almeida inside the distance/decision no action.

inside the distance decision no action on Lucas Almeida (considering)
"the pick is going to be Pat though because he's got an incredible advantage on the ground in the grappling and that is wider than the Striking advantage that Lucas has"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by first-round knockout. He likes both fighters but sees Almeida as a live dog due to his power and volume. Brady questions Sabatini's durability, noting he was hurt by Jamall Emmers and Damon Jackson. Almeida has a 100% finish rate and hits very hard, as seen in his fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Brady thinks Sabatini needs to wrestle early and often, but Almeida's takedown defense looks solid and he is physically strong. If Almeida can keep the fight standing for even a few minutes, he likely gets the knockout.

"I'm gonna say Lucas Almeida goes out there and gets a first round knockout in this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody is hesitant on Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida has crushing power and improved cardio, and that Sabatini's chin is questionable. He notes that Sabatini's wrestling is good but not elite, and that he tends to stall rather than finish. Cody thinks Sabatini will likely get takedowns and control the fight, but it will be a butt-clencher because Almeida can shut the lights off at any time. He doesn't love the -200 price.

Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700 (sprinkle)
"I think I'm gonna end up picking him it's gonna be a butt clencher the whole time Paul"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor also picks Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida could KO him but trusting Sabatini's grappling. He notes that Sabatini is awkward on the feet but has shown the ability to recover and submit opponents after being hurt. Connor is less confident than he would like but sees Sabatini as the safer pick.

"I got to pick Sabatini too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida, believing if the fight stays standing, Almeida will knock Sabatini out. He notes Sabatini's low volume and chin issues, citing knockouts by Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers. However, he expresses hesitation because Sabatini's wrestling could neutralize Almeida, leading to a frustrating loss. He considers it a coin flip but prefers the dog.

"if if almaid is able to keep it on the feed he's Gonna Knock sabatini Out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is the best grappler Almeida has faced. He should get takedowns and rack up control time, possibly even a submission. However, there is concern about how Sabatini rebounds from his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Almeida has power but has shown grappling deficiencies. Sabatini wins by decision.

"I'm gonna go Pat sabatini by decision not with a ton of confidence just because I want to see how he rebounds from a such a devastating knockout loss"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Paul is not laying -200 on Sabatini, calling him one-dimensional. He notes that Sabatini's takedowns are not always effective and that Almeida has power and durability. Paul thinks Almeida could be in big trouble if the fight stays on the feet, and he likes the plus money on Almeida. He also mentions a prop on Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700.

Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700 (sprinkle)
"there's no way I'm laying minus two on there I'm Pat seven do you need clear clear dogger pass for me he's just so one-dimensional"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Pat Sabatini, arguing Sabatini doesn't do much with takedowns and has been stuffed before. He notes Almeida's durability and finishing ability, referencing his comeback win over Mike Trizano. He believes Almeida can survive bad positions on the ground and land a big shot on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Lucas Almeida over Pat sabatina... Lucas al-made is going to beat pat sabatina"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Zane picks Sabatini despite concerns about his striking. He believes the grappling disparity is too wide and that Almeida takes too many risks standing, which will lead to Sabatini getting takedowns. Zane notes that Almeida has never faced a wrestler of Sabatini's caliber and that Sabatini can survive early trouble to win on the mat.

"I'm going to pick Pat Sabatini because I think that the grappling disparity is going to be too wide."
TKO (punches) R3 0:55 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Almeida 1 31 of 62 50% 42 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Michael Trizano 2 75 of 152 49% 94 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Almeida 1 12 of 26 46% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:36
Michael Trizano 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lucas Almeida 0 15 of 26 57% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Michael Trizano 1 30 of 60 50% 44 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
3 Lucas Almeida 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Trizano 1 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Almeida 31 of 62 50% 17 of 45 12 of 14 2 of 3 26 of 55 1 of 2 4 of 5
Michael Trizano 75 of 152 49% 32 of 95 16 of 22 27 of 35 54 of 121 0 of 0 21 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Almeida 12 of 26 46% 7 of 19 4 of 5 1 of 2 8 of 20 1 of 2 3 of 4
Michael Trizano 21 of 52 40% 5 of 29 6 of 8 10 of 15 21 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lucas Almeida 15 of 26 57% 7 of 18 8 of 8 0 of 0 14 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Trizano 30 of 60 50% 9 of 33 8 of 12 13 of 15 26 of 53 0 of 0 4 of 7
3 Lucas Almeida 4 of 10 40% 3 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Trizano 24 of 40 60% 18 of 33 2 of 2 4 of 5 7 of 16 0 of 0 17 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Angelo sees Michael Trizano as a fun pressure striker with power and fight IQ, who beats brawling strikers. Lucas Almeida is a powerful striker who headhunts and is not technical. Angelo likes Trizano in this matchup but doesn't love the -250 odds.

"i like mike trisano here because these are the fights that he wins right he will beat these brawling style strikers"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Big Brady picks Michael Trizano to win by decision. He thinks Trizano is more experienced and has fought better competition, and should weather Almeida's early storm. He notes Almeida has 100% finish rate and power, but Trizano has never been knocked out and has good takedown defense and cardio. He expects Trizano to take over in rounds 2 and 3 and win a decision, but is not confident due to Trizano's tendency to be in close fights.

Trizano by decision
"I'll take charizana to win um yeah not too confident in it and i feel like the line should be closer but give me the uh the experience of tresano here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Cody is uncertain, noting Almeida's cardio issues in his contender series fight and Trizano's takedown defense problems. He thinks Almeida might win the first round but Trizano could take over later. He says he'll wait for weigh-ins and jokingly checks Trizano's hairstyle for confidence.

"i'll say trisano right now but i'm not too sure to be perfectly honest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida as a plus-money underdog, arguing that Trizano's price is inflated and that Almeida has knockout power and durability. He notes that Trizano often wins close decisions and that Almeida's wild style could land a fight-ending shot. He recommends a one-unit bet on Almeida at +200, as he sees value in the dog.

one-unit bet on Almeida moneyline
"at plus 200 like i wouldn't mind taking you know a one unit shot and just to see you i think the way you attack it though dan instead of betting the the plus 200 play it in draftkings"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Paul picks Trizano but expresses hesitation, noting Almeida's wild style and potential cardio issues. He thinks Trizano's experience and veteran savvy will allow him to win a decision or late finish, but he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"i do have mike trazano but this is not a fight i'm looking to go heavy on by no means"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida to win by rear-naked choke. He calls Almeida a 'finishing machine' with a 100% finish rate. He notes Trizano has been submitted before and is coming off a beating. He believes Almeida's wild style and momentum will overwhelm Trizano, and he sees Almeida as a good underdog pick on the card.

Rear-naked choke submission
"i think i'm gonna trust him to go out there and get a choke on mike trisano let's say rear naked choke"
Timmy Cuamba - Fight History
LOSS vs Benardo Sopaj
SUB R2 2:25 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Timmy Cuamba 0 29 of 80 36% 29 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Benardo Sopaj 1 37 of 56 66% 66 of 92 1 of 3 33% 2 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Timmy Cuamba 0 20 of 60 33% 20 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Benardo Sopaj 0 11 of 20 55% 17 of 28 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:52
2 Timmy Cuamba 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Benardo Sopaj 1 26 of 36 72% 49 of 64 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Timmy Cuamba 29 of 80 36% 12 of 54 9 of 13 8 of 13 29 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Benardo Sopaj 37 of 56 66% 34 of 53 0 of 0 3 of 3 14 of 32 0 of 0 23 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Timmy Cuamba 20 of 60 33% 7 of 40 6 of 9 7 of 11 20 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Benardo Sopaj 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 2 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Timmy Cuamba 9 of 20 45% 5 of 14 3 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Benardo Sopaj 26 of 36 72% 25 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Angelo picks Benardo Sopaj, considering him the better fighter everywhere. He notes Sopaj is cleaner, faster, and a better wrestler. He trusts Sopaj's pressure and cardio despite a year layoff. He thinks -160 is a good spot.

"Bernardo Sopai is the pick. ... at minus 160, this might be one of the better spots on the card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Big Brady leans toward Benardo Sopaj, citing his power, wrestling, and grappling upside. He expects Sopaj to be more active in striking and have a grappling advantage, as long as his cardio holds up. He predicts a decision win in a close fight.

"I'm going to lean Soai here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Cody picks Benardo Sopaj, citing his higher striking volume (4.24 significant strikes per minute vs Cuamba's 2.77) and aggression. He notes that Cuamba has a reach advantage and uses his jab well, but Sopaj lands more and is the better striker. He expects a close 29-28 decision but is not overly confident due to Sopaj's one-dimensional style.

"I'm going to take Soai. Simple matter that I think he lands a lot more."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)

Cuamba is well-rounded and has good cardio, but is passive. Sopaj is more technical but fades. The fight depends on Cuamba's aggression. No strong read, so pass.

"This fight is going to come down to how aggressive Kuamba is early and without a crystal ball, there's no way for us to know that."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Lucrative James leans toward Benardo Sopaj, citing his power, grappling upside, and potential ceiling. He notes Sopaj's ability to get takedowns and hurt opponents, while Cuamba may struggle with speed at bantamweight. He predicts a decision win for Sopaj.

"I'm leaning with Bernardo Sapage a little bit. I think it might be the first time I've ever picked against my boy Timothy Kawa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

The host is confident in Sopaj's ability to dictate the pace and pressure, exploiting Cuamba's discomfort in the pocket. He expects Sopaj's superior striking and scrambling to wear down Cuamba, leading to a clear decision win. He sees Cuamba's only path to victory as a lucky knockout.

"I think this is a phenomenal spot for a Soai, right? Like I said inqama's background, he needs to be the one in the uh dictating the pace and controlling the pace of a fight to have success. And I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

The host picks Bernardo Sopai over Timmy Kuamba, liking Sopai's bright future. He expects Sopai's aggressiveness, grappling defense, and cardio edge to wear down Kuamba and win on the scorecards.

"I really like Sopai in this spot, as I believe this 25-year-old has a very bright future. Look for his aggressiveness, grappling defense, and cardio edge to really wear down Kuamba and win this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Paul also picks Benardo Sopaj, noting that he thought Sopaj would have success with offensive wrestling. He mentions that Cuamba has size issues and that Sopaj's volume and wrestling could be key. He hopes for a better price on fight day but is still going with Sopaj.

"I kind of thought that Soai is going to actually have success getting off his offensive wrestling going here."
WIN vs Lee Chang-ho
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Timmy Cuamba 0 23 of 32 71% 39 of 48 2 of 4 50% 0 1 5:55
Lee Chang-ho 0 15 of 26 57% 88 of 141 3 of 8 37% 0 0 6:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Timmy Cuamba 0 0 of 1 0% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lee Chang-ho 0 1 of 1 100% 49 of 90 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:52
2 Timmy Cuamba 0 21 of 28 75% 23 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
Lee Chang-ho 0 11 of 22 50% 13 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:18
3 Timmy Cuamba 0 2 of 3 66% 14 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 1 4:20
Lee Chang-ho 0 3 of 3 100% 26 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Timmy Cuamba 23 of 32 71% 17 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 22 8 of 10 0 of 0
Lee Chang-ho 15 of 26 57% 10 of 18 2 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Timmy Cuamba 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lee Chang-ho 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Timmy Cuamba 21 of 28 75% 16 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0
Lee Chang-ho 11 of 22 50% 8 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Timmy Cuamba 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0
Lee Chang-ho 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Timothy Cuamba vs. Chang Ho Lee
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cuamba (-140); Lee (+110)

Round 1
Two bantamweights who tend to punch first and ask questions later will handle their business in this three-round engagement. Cuamba (9-3, 1-2 UFC) cemented himself forever as a winner in the UFC by acing Roberto Romero with a flying knee in April. His South Korean opponent Lee (11-1, 2-0 UFC) plowed through the second season of the Road to UFC, and together they combine for exactly one submission win. Referee Eric McMahon dons his proverbial hard hat, expecting these 135-pounders to swing on one another as soon as he says go. He says go, and they speed towards one another, fists extended to greet.
It takes one punch landed on Lee’s cheek for him to shoot for a takedown. The South Korean whips around to take Cuamba’s back standing, and he wrenches him to the mat from behind while getting both hooks in. Lee wraps up a body lock, and Cuamba stands up and puts his back against the cage all while Lee is threatening him. Cuamba hand-fights to defend any choke from getting set up, so Lee chills on his back smacking him on the sides of the head and body.
Cuamba uses the wall behind him to keep the weight of Lee, who remains busy softening away at Cuamba and making his life miserable. This results in a stalemate, as Lee cannot find a choke, and his strikes are not terribly damaging. The round ends with Lee trying to force the fight horizontally, with tons of time spent with Lee on Cuamba’s back controlling him but doing little else.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lee
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Lee
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lee

Round 2
Cuamba does not want to get taken down or otherwise controlled for this round, so he opens up with a flying knee. Cuamba meets an advancing Lee with his right hand cocked back, as Lee wants to take the fight down. Lee punches his way into his takedowns, backing off to find another way in. Cuamba hits his seat and pulls for an unorthodox submission, and Lee explodes out of it to pursue his grappling in another way.
Lee lumps Cuamba up with his clean right hand, which seems to connect almost every time he is about to go for a takedown. Cuamba stuffs the takedown and knees him in the chest to stand him back up, and Lee is not about to back off. Lee walks through a spinning back elbow and a number of knees to the body, with “Twilight Timmy” cranking up his offense while Lee appears to be more plodding forward straight ahead. Cuamba counters a front kick with a takedown shot, where he forces Lee to drop to his knees so he can turn the tables complete and take the Korean’s back. Cuamba isolates the neck and settles to wrap it around the jaw. Lee hand-fights to stave it all off, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba

Round 3
Cuamba wants to touch gloves, but Lee wants to fight instead. It is Cuamba who engages his wrestling first, however, and Lee easily shuts him down but gets his back pushed against the wire. The two split up, and Cuamba fires off a body kick that Lee snatches so he can take the back. Cuamba tries to slide out the back door, and his arm is in a precarious position as Lee wants to set up an armbar or something from the limb. He is positioned upside-down, and Cuamba flips him about to stop him from the submission. Lee tries to pursue a single, but he does not have the gas to do so.
Cuamba laces his leg around Lee’s to keep him grounded, and he lets Lee stand up so he can take his back standing. Lee drops back to his knees to try to get Cuamba off of him, and Cuamba’s hooks are preventing his escape. Cuamba stretches out Lee’s torso by pulling back on his shoulders while Lee’s legs are pushed down from the body triangle. Lee toughs it out and keeps preventing chokes from materializing, but Cuamba is firmly in the driver’s seat with 30 seconds to go. With Lee twisting and turning, Cuamba hangs on until the rough match ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba (29-28 Cuamba)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba (29-28 Cuamba)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba (29-28 Cuamba)

The Official Result
Timothy Cuamba def. Chang Ho Lee via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Angelo picks Timmy Cuamba, but it's a lean. He notes both fighters are similar, with forward pressure, striking, and takedowns. He likes Cuamba's body work and toughness, but worries about Lee's grappling (Korean Khabib style). He wishes the line were closer and may sit this one out in DFS due to the risk of Cuamba being on his back.

"I am picking Timmy Quamba. I do wish this was a little closer of a line because the reality is these guys are very, very similar."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Lee Chang-ho

Big Brady leans toward Lee Chang-ho, calling it a striker vs grappler matchup. He notes Timmy Cuamba has a striking advantage with power, but Lee is a relentless wrestler with good cardio, nicknamed the South Korean Khabib. He sees Lee mixing in takedowns and cage pushing to win a decision, though he acknowledges Cuamba could win if he keeps it standing.

decision, plus 100 underdog
"I'm going to lean Chung Holi to get the job done. ... So give me Chung Holi. I actually take him to win this fight and win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Lee Chang-ho

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Lee is aggressive and will take a crazy fight to his opponent. He acknowledges Cuamba might feel bigger at bantamweight but thinks Lee's established aggression gives him the edge.

Odds are nearly even; Lee opened at -200, now -101; Cuamba opened at +170, now -119.
"I'm gonna pick the guy who has already established himself in this division who is one way or the other going to take a crazy fight to his opponent."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Lucrative James picks Timothy Cuamba, believing he is the superior striker with better boxing, footwork, and range control. He notes that Cuamba can be hurt but expects him to land the cleaner shots and potentially drop Lee. He acknowledges Lee's pace and pressure but thinks Cuamba will win a close decision, possibly with a knockdown.

"I'm going to side with Timothy Kwamba getting this one done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Lee Chang-ho

Lee can cut off the cage as Cuamba likes to move a lot. Lee will be more successful in grappling and put together a better body of work to win on the scorecards.

"I believe this is a great spot for Lee to really cut off the cage as Kwamba likes to move a lot, shuck off the takedowns, or at least be more successful in the grappling realm should it get there. …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lee Chang-ho

The MMA Guru picks Chang Ho Lee, impressed by his grappling and pressure against Cortavious Romious. He thinks Timmy Cuamba's win over a low-level opponent is not convincing. He believes Lee's layers of attack (stand-up and grappling) will be too much, predicting a finish by ground and pound or rear naked choke in the first or second round.

finish by ground and pound or rear naked choke, first or second round
"I'm going to go with Chang Ho Lee. I was very impressed by his Cortavious Romious fight... I reckon Chang Ho Lee will get this one done by finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Lee Chang-ho

Zane picks Lee Chang-ho because he is an aggressive front-foot fighter who will press a hard pace, while Cuamba is inactive and tends to neutralize himself. He notes that Cuamba has potential but hasn't realized it consistently, and Lee's aggression should overwhelm him.

Odds are nearly even; Lee opened at -200, now -101; Cuamba opened at +170, now -119.
"I think right now I have to pick chang-ho Lee just because it feels like at the very least he's a very aggressive and assertive front foot fighter."
KO R2 3:55 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Timmy Cuamba 1 33 of 64 51% 35 of 66 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:12
Roberto Romero 0 35 of 67 52% 45 of 79 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Timmy Cuamba 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Roberto Romero 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:28
2 Timmy Cuamba 1 24 of 37 64% 26 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Roberto Romero 0 13 of 33 39% 18 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Timmy Cuamba 33 of 64 51% 25 of 53 6 of 8 2 of 3 29 of 59 3 of 4 1 of 1
Roberto Romero 35 of 67 52% 5 of 32 19 of 22 11 of 13 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Timmy Cuamba 9 of 27 33% 7 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Roberto Romero 22 of 34 64% 2 of 13 14 of 15 6 of 6 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Timmy Cuamba 24 of 37 64% 18 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 3 22 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1
Roberto Romero 13 of 33 39% 3 of 19 5 of 7 5 of 7 12 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Timothy Cuamba vs. Roberto Romero
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romero (-115), Cuamba (-105)

Round 1
The overstuffed prelims roll on with a featherweight contest, one pitting two men against one another that have yet to earn a UFC victory in three combined tries. Cuamba (8-3, 0-2 UFC) tried and failed twice last year, while Romero (8-4-1, 0-1 UFC) came up short in his single UFC appearance in 2024. Something’s gotta give, and referee Nick Berens will know first which man will break out of a short slump. Gloves are touched, and Cuamba goes to start circling on the outside. Romero stands firmly in the center of the cage, and eventually pitches out a single leg kick. After some inaction, the “woo” birds come out, and Cuamba answers them by shooting in for a takedown when absorbing a few strikes. Romero turns him about and presses him on the fencing, and Berens warns for glove grabbing. The fighters stall out, and fans are not thrilled. They trade short knees and the occasional elbow, all while stuck in a clinch. Cuamba goes low with a knee to the groin—it looks like Romero lands his own at the same time in the exchange—and Berens calls time. After about 30 seconds, both fighters are good to go, and they resume where they started the fight, with Romero in the middle of the Octagon and Cuamba searching for angles. The latter finds one, driving through a one-two on the chin to get Romero’s attention. Romero fires back, but Cuamba is quicker and more accurate as reddens the Mexico native’s nose with his one-two. He flashes another one-two out when Romero offers a body kick, and Romero takes advantage of a body kick by catching it and looking for a takedown. Cuamba scrambles back to his feet, and he adjusts his glove in discomfort. Romero lets fly his body kick, and Cuamba’s one-two quickly meets him on the forehead to open up a tiny cut. Romero breaks off and lets go with two hard body kicks, the second of which makes Cuamba frown. Romero walks his foe down, not selling out to walk into a flying knee, and instead measuring his foe with a head kick. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba

Round 2
Romero starts the round as the aggressor, offering a glove touch that is partially accepted so that he can start kicking. Cuamba spins with a back kick to the ribcage, and Romero is not amused. As Romero bears down on his opponent, he trips Cuamba up but cannot keep him on the mat. Cuamba breaks free and again checks his left glove, but seems good to go. They trade single punches, with Romero beating him to the punch and not taking a flying knee on the chin. Romero grabs hold of the leg to take the fight down, and Cuamba’s balance holds out as he bounces to the side and introduces his fist to Romero’s face. Romero leans back to give him a pair of body kicks, and he gets in a low kick after it. Cuamba surges into action with a flurry of punches, and Romero answers him with a high kick. Cuamba’s right hand finds the mark again, staggering the Mexican but not backing him down. Romero keeps pushing forward despite the damage, and Cuamba boots him in the face. Once more, Romero is rocked, and he has to blink it out as he marches ever forward, blood streaming down his face. As Romero shoots in on his hips,
Cuamba times a picture-perfect flying knee that blasts Romero square on the jaw, and Romero crashes to the canvas in big trouble. Berens is immediately rushing in to rescue Romero, but not before Cuamba hammers his downed foe with a pair of thudding punches
. Romero rushes back to his feet and races towards Cuamba to re-engage, unaware that Berens has called the fight. Romero is upset, but the fight is already over and there is nothing that can be done tonight about what commentators questioned may have been a bit premature. Regardless of the stoppage, it is a crucial win for “Twilight Timmy,” who demonstrates that he is not in the twilight of his UFC career and instead earns a mighty victory to save his place on the roster.

The Official Result
Timothy Cuamba def. Roberto Romero R2 3:55 via TKO (Flying Knee)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roberto Romero

Angelo picks Roberto Romero, citing his forward pressure, grappling, and toughness. He notes that Romero dropped David Onama early in his last fight and has a gritty demeanor. He is waiting for better odds before placing a bet, as Romero is a slight favorite.

Waiting for line movement; may bet if odds improve
"I am picking Roberto Romero. I picked him long before odds existed."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Roberto Romero

Big Brady leans toward Roberto Romero, emphasizing his doggedness and urgency compared to Timmy Cuamba's lack of finishing instinct. He notes Romero's impressive short-notice debut against David Onama, where he had early success but faded. He criticizes Cuamba for sparring-like performances and lack of urgency, predicting a close decision win for Romero.

fight goes to decision
"Give me Romero to have a little bit more dog in him, a little bit more urgency, and um but should be a very close fight, I think. But give me Romero to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

The host picks Cuamba based on his speed and athleticism advantage, expecting him to land better shots from distance and use wrestling at opportune moments to secure a decision win.

"I think Kwamba's speed and athleticism advantage will allow him to land better shots from distance... which is why I'm going to pick Kombat to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Roberto Romero

The MMA Guru picks Roberto Romero, impressed by his debut against David Onama where he hurt Onama early and showed pressure. He notes Cuamba has lost both UFC fights and didn't look good. He expects a gritty decision win for Romero, likely 29-28, as Romero leads the dance and is hard to finish.

"I trust Roberto Romero to get gritty when he needs to be and to bring the fight. I reckon we will see a decision. And I reckon we'll see a 2928 to Roberto Romero."
LOSS vs Lucas Almeida
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Almeida 0 59 of 116 50% 73 of 136 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:18
Timmy Cuamba 1 70 of 196 35% 91 of 220 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Almeida 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Timmy Cuamba 1 22 of 59 37% 30 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Lucas Almeida 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Timmy Cuamba 0 32 of 84 38% 36 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Lucas Almeida 0 24 of 46 52% 38 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:18
Timmy Cuamba 0 16 of 53 30% 25 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Almeida 59 of 116 50% 35 of 87 14 of 17 10 of 12 48 of 100 0 of 0 11 of 16
Timmy Cuamba 70 of 196 35% 43 of 153 13 of 28 14 of 15 65 of 190 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Almeida 13 of 26 50% 6 of 19 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 22 of 59 37% 13 of 42 3 of 11 6 of 6 21 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Lucas Almeida 22 of 44 50% 14 of 33 3 of 5 5 of 6 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 32 of 84 38% 18 of 66 9 of 12 5 of 6 28 of 79 2 of 3 2 of 2
3 Lucas Almeida 24 of 46 52% 15 of 35 8 of 9 1 of 2 13 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 16
Timmy Cuamba 16 of 53 30% 12 of 45 1 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Timothy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cuamba (-205), Almeida (+170)

Round 1
When he punted Michael Stack at the beginning of February, “Twilight Timmy” Cuamba (8-2, 0-1 UFC) could have scarcely predicted his UFC debut would come one week later. While it did not go his way against Bolaji Oki, Cuamba gets a second chance to make a first impression. He takes on aggressive Almeida (14-3, 1-2 UFC) and his 100% finish rate. Referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat, and he tells the fighter’s it’s time to fight. The 145ers do not bother bumping fists, as Almeida wants to start something. He does that with a low kick, and he jabs the body shortly thereafter. Almeida cuts Cuamba off around the cage, walking him down and throwing a low kick. Cuamba pays him back with a speedy one-two, and he gets off a jab on the outside. Another one-two from “Twilight Timmy” finds its home on the chin, and Almeida shakes it off and continues pressuring. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and he chips at the front leg with kicks. Cuamba stands his man up with a left hand, but the right misses. On the way back, Cuamba plants a stern kick on the lead leg of his adversary. Almeida jabs with the fall of his foot, and a ferocious one-two stuns Cuamba and sits him down. Almeida tries to pound him out with ground strikes while leaning on Cuamba, but Cuamba does not go all the way down and instead muscles his way back upright. Almeida keeps firing the right hand, drawing a shot in response from the Las Vegas native. Almeida stands his foe up and knees him once before splitting off, and he returns to stalking mode. Two punches get around the guard, and Cuamba takes them flush and keeps retreating. Almeida tags him with another right hand to set him down, and Cuamba scrambles and gets up. To take some of the venom out of his foe’s shots, Cuamba presses Almeida against the cage wall for a time. Almeida escapes and starts potshotting Cuamba, until Cuamba is tired of the one-sided exchanges and starts brawling. Cuamba dislodges the mouthpiece of his foe, but Almeida puts on the pace with punches and a high kick that wraps up around the guard. Almeida ducks back to dodge a head kick, and he eats a right hand while plodding forward. Cuamba strikes the body a few times, and he makes it to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Almeida

Round 2
Almeida is loaded for bear to start off the second round, as he gets right back to cutting Cuamba off while throwing hands. Cuamba sits down on single strikes, thumping a left to the body and one to the head. Almeida lunges forward, and Cuamba counters him with a sharp left. Cuamba checks a low kick and tosses one back, and they trade jabs shortly thereafter. The jabs are landed again at the same time, and Cuamba again targets the liver with a left. Almeida steps through a punch to wing three of his own, and he scores a solid low kick. They both start swinging bungalows, and Almeida catches Cuamba with a clean left hand that drops “Twilight Timmy” to a knee. Cuamba sits up and rushes after a single-leg takedown, but Almeida is able to shove him away without much concern. Cuamba gets his sea legs with the successful dilatory tactic, but he is not slowing Almeida’s momentum. Almeida chops at his leg and walks through a jab to rifle off a right hand, and he slips a counter jab. Almeida sinks in a left hand and laughs off a leg kick, and a one-two along with two hooks at least partially connect. Almeida surges into a left hand, and he clips Cuamba once more as he lines up punches to the head and then body. Cuamba strafes away, and Almeida is on him with a left to the body and right to the head. Cuamba’s legs wobble, but Almeida is buttering his bread as he seems to find that right hand any time he wants. Cuamba scrambles to the side, and Almeida plants two fists and a head kick up top right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters reach the last round and share a brief glove touch, and Almeida returns quickly to his predatory best. Walking Cuamba down, throwing jabs, follow-up punches, leg kicks and the occasional power strike, Almeida beats Cuamba to the punch while not getting answered by anything overly concerning. Cuamba slams a kick to the ribs, but it is one-and-done as Almeida walks him down. Cuamba shoots for a single, and he drags the Brazilian to his seat but does not establish control. Almeida turns the corner and pushes down on the back of Cuamba’s head to stop him from going anywhere until he moves enough to escape and reset. Almeida jabs the head and body without fear of reprisal, and he shrugs off a front kick to pump out more jabs. Cuamba lands at the end of a right hand, drawing a wide counter from his foe. They both jab at one another, and Almeida’s range gives up the upper hand. Cuamba lands once, but Almeida rings him up for four in the same flurry. Almeida just misses with a high kick, and they double jab at one another. Almeida hacks at the front leg and absorbs a body kick, and the two start swinging recklessly. Cuamba catches his adversary with a left hook, and he moves to take the brunt out of the overhand right counter. Almeida collides his fist on the dome and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the tower, and Cuamba decides two can spin and lands his own back kick on the belly. Cuamba closes in to strike, and although Almeida lands two on the inside, Cuamba uses the momentum and a trip to put the Brazilian on the canvas. Cuamba sits up and drops down a few punches and some fierce elbows, and he looks for a finish with seconds to go and rains down blows until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba (29-27 Almeida)

The Official Result
Lucas Almeida def. Timothy Cuamba via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his deeper resume and higher level of competition. He notes Lucas is a powerful striker who comes forward, while Timmy is more technical but less experienced. He thinks Lucas's power and chin could be the difference, though Timmy's accuracy is a concern. He mentions the plus 165 odds are appealing.

Odds comment: +165
"I'm going Lucas here I think Lucas hits a little harder"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Cody picks Lucas Almeida as a dog, arguing that Cuamba is a low-volume striker who relies on a knockout and has shown poor cardio and wrestling. He notes that Almeida has better wins and has fought tougher competition, including a competitive fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Cody believes Almeida's volume and leg kicks can overwhelm Cuamba, and that the line is too wide for a fighter of Cuamba's level.

"official play here is going to be Almeida to get the upset."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Daniel Vreeland is concerned about Lucas Almeida's recent performances, noting he only landed two strikes in his last fight and looked stiff. He speculates a possible health issue. He likes Timothy Cuamba's technical soundness and ability to fight everywhere, though he's not the most physical. He believes Cuamba can pick Almeida apart and mix in wrestling.

"I'm going to go Timmy there"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Jacob picks Timmy, thinking he is the more technical striker and could mix in takedowns against Lucas's poor takedown defense. He notes Timmy held his own against Bolaji on short notice. He acknowledges Lucas is more dangerous but believes Timmy's technique will prevail.

"I like Timmy here I think he's just the more technical dude"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Cuamba's lateral movement will frustrate Almeida, opening up takedown opportunities and allowing Cuamba to land damage from distance. The line is too wide for someone taking a step up in competition, but Cuamba's potential and body of work should get the judges' favor.

line too wide
"the line a little bit too wide here for somebody who's taking a solid Step Up in competition against Almeida but I do think that Kua has more potential and his better body of work should be able to get …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Cuamba is a low-volume Contender Series guy and that he would never bet that type of fighter at minus 200. He notes that Almeida gave Zellhuber a tough fight and that plus 180 is generous. Paul thinks Almeida can win with volume and pressure.

"Almeida I mean probably his best performance... plus 180 is more than generous as far as I'm concerned."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

The MMA Guru picks Timmy Cuamba by decision. He notes Cuamba stepped up on short notice in his debut against Boki and took him to a split decision, showing composure. He thinks Cuamba has been tested and that Lucas Almeida's wins have asterisks, including a first-round KO loss to Andre Fili. He believes Cuamba's experience against a larger, powerful opponent in Boki will help him handle Almeida's physicality.

decision
"I'm going to go with Timmy kber winning this fight by decision"
LOSS vs Bolaji Oki
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bolaji Oki 0 60 of 152 39% 61 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Timmy Cuamba 0 33 of 94 35% 35 of 96 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bolaji Oki 0 29 of 61 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Timmy Cuamba 0 9 of 43 20% 9 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Timmy Cuamba 0 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:55
3 Bolaji Oki 0 21 of 66 31% 21 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Timmy Cuamba 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bolaji Oki 60 of 152 39% 51 of 139 5 of 8 4 of 5 58 of 145 1 of 4 1 of 3
Timmy Cuamba 33 of 94 35% 20 of 67 8 of 14 5 of 13 26 of 86 5 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bolaji Oki 29 of 61 47% 24 of 55 1 of 1 4 of 5 28 of 56 0 of 2 1 of 3
Timmy Cuamba 9 of 43 20% 5 of 30 1 of 3 3 of 10 9 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 10 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 11 of 21 52% 9 of 15 1 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 14 4 of 5 2 of 2
3 Bolaji Oki 21 of 66 31% 17 of 60 4 of 6 0 of 0 20 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Timmy Cuamba 13 of 30 43% 6 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Timothy Cuamba vs. Bolaji Oki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
On August 29, 2023, both Oki (8-1, 0-0 UFC) and Cuamba (8-1, 0-0 UFC) competed on the fourth episode of Dana White’s Contender Series in its 2023 season. Both men ended up getting their hands raised—Oki by knockout, and Cuamba by decision—and the former was signed. The latter went back to the regionals, where he fought at Tuff-N-Uff, the former all-amateur promotion, and smoked Michael Stack just one week ago. The round robin of fighters ends with this lightweight pairing of 8-1 newcomers, and it will be joined in the cage by referee Chris Tognoni. There is no plan on touching gloves, as they would rather get down to business. Oki presents himself as the immediate aggressor, chasing Cuamba down and reaching out with a low kick and some wide punches. Cuamba does not engage with much of his own offense in the opening 90 seconds, but for a few jabs and low kicks. Oki throws back one leg kick and unloads with two big right hands that mark up Cuamba’s face. Cuamba looses a right hand of his own back Oki off, but Oki is driving jabs to the increasingly red eye of his opponent. Oki times an advancing Cuamba with a short right, and the offense slows down from both parties. Oki shuffles in place as he tosses out a single right hand, and when that misses, Cuamba lets rip two overhand rights. Oki pokes out several more jabs and avoids the counter, and he lands a low kick with an audible thud. Cuamba comes back with a jab and slings a right hand after it, and he presses forward but pulls back before shooting. Oki gladly remains in boxing range, jabbing his opponent up, until Cuamba spurs into action with a head kick. Oki catches it and pushes Cuamba to the floor, where he unloads with a series of punches until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki

Round 2
The lightweights reach out to exchange a glove touch to start off the round, and Oki starts to chase Cuamba around the cage with jabs. Cuamba looks to mix things up with low kicks, but Oki walks through it and doubles up a jab to nail Cuamba with a right hand. Cuamba comes back with a two-punch combination, but it does not fluster Oki in the slightest. Oki continues to jab without fear of reprisal, and even when a counter comes from Cuamba, it is one-and-done. Oki peppers his man with a jab and occasional follow-up punches, and Cuamba attacks in response with a single-leg takedown effort. Oki backs up to the wall in defense, and he stifles Cuamba from getting him down and ends up taking Cuamba’s back in the process. Oki considers a rear-naked choke but falls off the side, although he gets a single hook in momentarily. Cuamba turns him back and stays doggedly pursuing the single, and he transitions to a double and manages to ground Oki after all. Cuamba steps over to the side and sits in an open half guard as he postures up to elbow Oki. When Oki sits up, Cuamba considers a guillotine choke at the 10-second clapper. Oki stands up, ignores a few elbows on the side of his head, and he hangs on as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba

Round 3
The final round commences as Oki looks to pick up where he left off on the feet with a veritable cornucopia of jabs. Cuamba attempts a kick, but Oki is too close and irritating him with jabs. Oki drops his hands and puts them behind his back to showboat, and Cuamba punches him square in the face. Oki continues to march forward with jabs outstretched, and he surprises his adversary by attempting a level change. Cuamba pushes him away and returns to kickboxing range. Oki welcomes this by reintroducing his jab to the face of his opponent, and he is light enough on his feet to dodge the counters that careen his direction. Cuamba sneaks out a left hand as he gets constantly driven back, but he cannot seem to stop the methodical strategy of “The Zulu Warrior.” Cuamba tries to swing for the fences, and Oki watches them soar past him. Oki sprawls to stop a takedown, and he marches down Cuamba and strings four punches together. Oki catches Cuamba with an uppercut, as he puts a bit more mustard on his punches with less than a minute to go. Cuamba keeps circling and absorbing punches, and he occasionally looks for a brawl but is telegraphing the majority of his power strikes. Oki fearlessly presses ahead with punches in bunches, gets in a knee, and reaches out with a Superman punch right before this lackluster offering comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)

The Official Result
Bolaji Oki def. Timothy Cuamba via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Angelo describes Bolaji Oki as a busy striker with a good jab, power, and fast sprawl, though he slows down. He notes that Timmy Cuamba (referred to as deir hadzic) is an okay striker who relies on closing distance and takedowns, but his wide strikes leave him open to counters. Angelo believes Oki can defend takedowns and land effectively, and picks him to win. He suggests under 2.5 rounds might make sense.

under 2.5 rounds might make sense
"I think BAGI wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki to win by decision. He notes that Oki has many ways to win, including wrestling, as Cuamba has the worst takedown defense in the lightweight division. He thinks Oki can brawl on the feet but can also take Cuamba down easily. He is not laying -300 on a debutant but picks Oki.

"give me bagok to win this fight and I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Cody picks Oki, noting his size and power. He thinks Cuamba is taking the fight on short notice and moving up a weight class, which are disadvantages. Oki has shown good wrestling and knockout power. Cody expects Oki to land the bigger shots and win by decision or late stoppage.

"I got to go with baji Oki who again debut and do you want to pay the money line and blah blah blah blah blah like the the guy's explosive"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Oki is a young, powerful striker with speed and explosiveness. He should be able to find an early knockout against the aging and injury-returning Hadzovic. Hadzovic's ring rust and knee surgery recovery are major concerns. Oki's power will be too much, and he should win by first-round knockout.

"I got to lean with Oki as I think he should be able to uh find that early knockout here I think his speed and power is going to be too much for hadzovic and that ring rust is going …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Paul also picks Oki, citing size and preparation. He notes Cuamba fought last week and is moving up, which could affect his performance. Oki is the more proven prospect. Paul is not planning to bet it but leans Oki.

"I'll side with size here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki because he is a dangerous athlete with good reach and power, and he is facing Timothy Cuamba on short notice. He recalls Oki's nasty first-round finish on the Contender Series. He notes that Cuamba is moving up from featherweight and taking the fight on short notice, which he sees as a disadvantage.

"I just think BAGI is too much of a presence and he's got too much power for a heavweight coming up so yeah I don't like this for a couple days notice."
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his deeper resume and higher level of competition. He notes Lucas is a powerful striker who comes forward, while Timmy is more technical but less experienced. He thinks Lucas's power and chin could be the difference, though Timmy's accuracy is a concern. He mentions the plus 165 odds are appealing.

Odds comment: +165
"I'm going Lucas here I think Lucas hits a little harder"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Cody picks Lucas Almeida as a dog, arguing that Cuamba is a low-volume striker who relies on a knockout and has shown poor cardio and wrestling. He notes that Almeida has better wins and has fought tougher competition, including a competitive fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Cody believes Almeida's volume and leg kicks can overwhelm Cuamba, and that the line is too wide for a fighter of Cuamba's level.

"official play here is going to be Almeida to get the upset."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Daniel Vreeland is concerned about Lucas Almeida's recent performances, noting he only landed two strikes in his last fight and looked stiff. He speculates a possible health issue. He likes Timothy Cuamba's technical soundness and ability to fight everywhere, though he's not the most physical. He believes Cuamba can pick Almeida apart and mix in wrestling.

"I'm going to go Timmy there"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Jacob picks Timmy, thinking he is the more technical striker and could mix in takedowns against Lucas's poor takedown defense. He notes Timmy held his own against Bolaji on short notice. He acknowledges Lucas is more dangerous but believes Timmy's technique will prevail.

"I like Timmy here I think he's just the more technical dude"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

Cuamba's lateral movement will frustrate Almeida, opening up takedown opportunities and allowing Cuamba to land damage from distance. The line is too wide for someone taking a step up in competition, but Cuamba's potential and body of work should get the judges' favor.

line too wide
"the line a little bit too wide here for somebody who's taking a solid Step Up in competition against Almeida but I do think that Kua has more potential and his better body of work should be able to get the judges in his favor"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Cuamba is a low-volume Contender Series guy and that he would never bet that type of fighter at minus 200. He notes that Almeida gave Zellhuber a tough fight and that plus 180 is generous. Paul thinks Almeida can win with volume and pressure.

"Almeida I mean probably his best performance... plus 180 is more than generous as far as I'm concerned."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Timmy Cuamba

The MMA Guru picks Timmy Cuamba by decision. He notes Cuamba stepped up on short notice in his debut against Boki and took him to a split decision, showing composure. He thinks Cuamba has been tested and that Lucas Almeida's wins have asterisks, including a first-round KO loss to Andre Fili. He believes Cuamba's experience against a larger, powerful opponent in Boki will help him handle Almeida's physicality.

decision
"I'm going to go with Timmy kber winning this fight by decision"