Career Averages - Nate Maness
Career Averages - Jimmy Flick
Nate Maness
Jimmy Flick
Nate Maness - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 37 of 75 | 49% | 41 of 80 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 2 | 0 | 2:41 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 89 of 168 | 52% | 139 of 234 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 14 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 46 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 56 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 37 of 75 | 49% | 8 of 26 | 21 of 35 | 8 of 14 | 28 of 64 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 89 of 168 | 52% | 63 of 135 | 17 of 23 | 9 of 10 | 64 of 131 | 19 of 26 | 6 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 14 of 31 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 30 of 56 | 53% | 19 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 5 of 16 | 31% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 33 of 61 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 9 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 18 of 28 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 26 of 51 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 17 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.
Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.
Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.
Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.
Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 29 of 35 | 82% | 103 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 29 of 35 | 82% | 103 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 29 of 35 | 82% | 26 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 30 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 29 of 35 | 82% | 26 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 30 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.
Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.
Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.
Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.
Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.
Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.
Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Nate Maness | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tagir Ulanbekov | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Nate Maness | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Maness as a heavy underdog, citing his better boxing, takedown defense, and ability to stick to a game plan. He notes Ulanbekov looked bad against Tim Elliott, not wrestling enough and being taken down easily. He considers a half-unit moneyline bet or a +3.5 prop.
Big Brady likes Ulanbekov's grappling and control, expecting him to take Maness down and keep him there. He notes Maness's poor get-up game and the fact that Maness is cutting to flyweight for the first time, which could affect his cardio. However, he is wary of Maness's ability to pull off wins and plans to stay away from betting on this fight.
Cody picks Nate Maness as a live underdog. He notes that Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC, with close split decisions against Bruno Silva and Alan Nascimento, and a loss to Tim Elliott where he was taken down and outstruck. Maness has shown heart and takedown defense, surviving Tony Gravely's wrestling and knocking him out in the second round. At 125 pounds, Maness may have better takedown defense and striking. Cody thinks Maness can keep the fight standing and land combinations, making Ulanbekov desperate and shooting takedowns. He recommends waiting for weigh-ins to see Maness at 125.
Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov, having bet him at -175 for two units. He believes Ulanbekov's grappling and top control will be too much for Nate Maness, who struggles to get up from bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's toughness and recent training with Khabib's team, and expects a dominant performance.
The host is concerned about Ulanbekov's inability to control opponents on the ground and his close fights. He acknowledges Maness's durability and striking power, but thinks Ulanbekov can land enough takedowns and clinch work to win a decision. He is not confident enough to bet at -190 and will stay away.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nate Maness as an underdog. He highlights Maness's takedown defense against Johnny Munoz (2 for 16) and Tony Gravely (1 for 6), and his ability to come back from adversity, as seen against Gravely where he broke his jaw and still won. Paul notes that Maness is moving down to 125, which could be an X-factor, as he may be stronger and have better takedown defense. He thinks Maness's striking is superior to Ulanbekov's, and that Ulanbekov's camp may underestimate Maness because Umar Nurmagomedov beat him easily. Paul locks in Maness as an underdog pick.
The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov, criticizing Maness's performance against Umar Nurmagomedov where he accepted being on bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's quality grappling, evidenced by a split decision win over Allan Nascimento. He predicts Ulanbekov will control the fight, winning 29-28 by taking dominant positions in later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 2 of 20 | 10% | 46 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 74 of 100 | 74% | 128 of 161 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 10:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 18 of 21 | 85% | 40 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 35 of 48 | 72% | 56 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 2 of 20 | 10% | 1 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 74 of 100 | 74% | 60 of 79 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 57 of 67 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 18 of 21 | 85% | 17 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 21 of 31 | 67% | 18 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 26 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 35 of 48 | 72% | 25 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 27 |
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.
Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.
Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.
Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.
The host picks Umar Nurmagomedov, trusting his skills and noting he makes low-level opponents look easy. He believes Umar will hurt Maness on the feet and then secure a submission in the second round. He criticizes Maness's last win over Tony Gravely as a fluke and doubts his grappling will be enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 1 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 64 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Tony Gravely | 1 | 36 of 68 | 52% | 44 of 77 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Tony Gravely | 1 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 32 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 1 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Tony Gravely | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 31 of 63 | 49% | 26 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 |
| Tony Gravely | 36 of 68 | 52% | 18 of 43 | 8 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 25 of 55 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 15 of 35 | 42% | 12 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Gravely | 26 of 41 | 63% | 11 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 17 of 32 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 16 of 28 | 57% | 14 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Tony Gravely | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tony Gravely but is hesitant. He thinks Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will win two rounds, but Nate Maness is well-rounded and will likely win a round. He placed a bet on Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (win a round) at even money, expecting Gravely to win 29-28. He notes Gravely's cardio issues and Maness's size.
Big Brady picks Tony Gravely, citing his relentless wrestling and top control. He notes Maness has good takedown defense initially but offers little on his back. Gravely has never been knocked out, and Maness has zero submissions off his back. He predicts a first-round TKO for Gravely.
Cody picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and improvements at American Top Team. He notes that Maness has suspect cardio and was nearly finished by Luke Sanders before coming back. Cody believes Gravely's chain wrestling will wear down Maness, though he admits the price is high.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely. He describes Maness as average in all areas, while Gravely is a grappling specialist. He notes Gravely has been submitted before but that's due to his large sample size. He worries about judges not understanding grappling, citing the De Freitas fight where one judge scored against Gravely. He advises caution but picks Gravely.
Preet picks Gravely because he believes Gravely's wrestling is on a different level than Maness has faced. He thinks Maness will back up to the cage and get taken down, where Gravely can pass guard and finish. He likes Gravely inside the distance at +235 and under 2.5 rounds at +155.
Paul leans toward Gravely but is not confident due to the price. He notes that Maness has shown the ability to come back from bad first rounds. Paul suggests live betting Maness if he loses the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness over Tony Gravely, citing Maness's superior grappling and ability to out-grapple Gravely, who struggled with Geraldo de Freitas. He notes Maness is an underdog and calls it a good value pick. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 55 of 112 | 49% | 63 of 120 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Luke Sanders | 1 | 33 of 70 | 47% | 38 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Luke Sanders | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Luke Sanders | 1 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 55 of 112 | 49% | 40 of 90 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 47 of 102 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 33 of 70 | 47% | 27 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 62 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 30 of 61 | 49% | 19 of 43 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 55 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 25 of 51 | 49% | 21 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 20 of 40 | 50% | 17 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 49 of 78 | 62% | 129 of 168 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 9:42 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 158 of 194 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 51 of 78 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 33 of 42 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 66 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 45 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 80 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 49 of 78 | 62% | 18 of 34 | 25 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 16 of 40 | 20 of 21 | 13 of 17 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 21 of 50 | 42% | 9 of 37 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 34 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 19 of 38 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 17 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 2 of 15 | 13% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 14 of 22 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 16 of 18 | 88% | 3 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 9 of 17 | 52% | 1 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. The host did not mention Nate Maness vs Johnny Muñoz Jr. at all.
The host picks Ray Borg, stating that Borg is a much better grappler and that Maness has not faced high-level competition. He notes that Borg is only 26 and not on the decline, and that Maness will be hesitant to throw bombs due to Borg's takedown threat. He expects Borg to grind out a decision or possibly finish later in the fight. He also mentions the line is a steal and expects it to close higher.
The host picks Ray Borg (Nate Maness's opponent) to win by unanimous decision. He praises Borg's youth (26), grappling, and recent activity, and notes that Maness hasn't fought anyone of Borg's caliber. He believes Borg will grind out a win with takedowns and control, and that Maness lacks the experience against high-level grapplers.
Jimmy Flick - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 88 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 1 | 3:53 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 48 of 60 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 1 | 8:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 33 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 | |
| 2 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 46 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 3 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:25 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 35 of 61 | 57% | 33 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 23 |
| Jimmy Flick | 12 of 20 | 60% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 6 of 15 | 40% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 8 of 11 | 72% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Matt Schnell | 18 of 25 | 72% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 19 |
| Jimmy Flick | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Matt Schnell | 11 of 21 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Jimmy Flick | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Schnell (-285), Flick (+230)
Round 1
An interesting matchup between flyweight finishers concludes the long prelims. This is a pivotal one for both men, as they are both struggling as of late. Schnell (16-9, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC) fell below .500 in the UFC while riding a three-fight skid, with the third of those nearly forcing him into retirement. Like Schnell, Flick (17-8, 2-3 UFC) also offered a retirement that did not stick a few years ago, but with one win in his last four outings, it’s make or break for him. Referee Dan Miragliotta may be needed for the bout’s entire duration, but the judges might be able to kick back and relax when the two 125ers engage. Before searching for the stoppage that may soon come, the fighters cordially touch ‘em up first. Schnell is light on his feet as he ramps up his offense, not letting Flick get off much of his own as he peppers his foe with strikes. Flick walks into a right hand and ducks away to reset, and Schnell splits the guard with a jab. Flick surges into action with three swiping left hands, and he uses the surprise offense to shoot in for a single. Schnell remains on his feet, and Flick chases after him and bullies him to the wall. Flick pursues the takedown, tripping out Schnell’s right leg to place him on his seat. As Schnell scrambles, Flick jumps over to half guard and then the side, where he looks for an arm-triangle choke. Schnell walks off the face, pushing Flick off of him and setting up a potential triangle choke. Schnell loops his left leg around the shoulder, and Flick powers his weight down to stifle the triangle. Schnell drags Flick back to half guard, and he wraps punches around the head and lands a few to the back of the dome as well. Schnell re-closes his guard, and Flick takes advantage of this opportunity by hacking down with elbows. Schnell’s possible triangle setup comes up short as Flick no-sells it, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Round 2
Schnell comes out of his corner looking for kicks, and his first is a calf kick. Flick comes up top with a right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Schnell defends with a guillotine choke, but the impact of the two hitting the canvas breaks the grip. Flick lands in half guard and pressures down with his shoulder for the first step of an arm-triangle choke, and he wraps his hands together to further go after it. Flick keeps staying after the arm-triangle, and he allows Schnell to turn to his side so he can slither around and take the back. Flick adjusts his grip and searches for a side-naked choke, but Schnell’s arm is in to give him enough space to survive. Schnell turns using his feet on the wall to fight out of the sub, and Flick is subsequently returned to full guard. “The Brick” imposes his body weight down, and Schnell defends by hooking his leg around Flick’s shoulder for an omoplata. Flick sits up, and he jumps guard for a guillotine choke. Schnell tosses the arm grip aside and starts mounting offense, hammering the submission specialist with punches until Flick uses butterfly hooks to gain some space. When Schnell stands upright, Flick beans him with an upkick. Schnell shakes it off and keeps Flick on the ground by striking him. Flick again postures up and jumps for a guillotine and it is much tighter. “Danger” remains composed and is not concerned of the danger of the sub, and he wriggles his neck free and lashes out with nasty ground-and-pound that splits Flick’s forehead open. Schnell defends with a hard elbow and jumps guard for a guillotine, and Miragliotta thinks the 10-second clapper is the bell again and touches the fighters. Schnell releases the grip, expecting the round is over, and Flick is arguably saved by this mistake as the power guillotine was frighteningly tight. As Schnell rolls Flick over, the horn does sound.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Round 3
The third round opens with Schnell willing to engage in the striking, and Flick does the same for a brief spell until he grabs hold of Schnell’s leg for a single. Schnell hits his back and wraps his leg up for a possible triangle, and when that fails, he kicks Flick off of him. Flick appears dazed as blood streams down his face, and Schnell is the fresher of the two and jumps to his feet first. Flick follows him, and he shoots for a double. Schnell defends with a 10-finger guillotine, and Flick appears to tap a single time as he was pushing on Schnell’s leg to thwart the submission. Flick breaks out of the sub and lowers himself to his back, and he turns to his side and sits up to try to put Schnell on his back. Schnell leans against the wall, and Flick still tries to wrap him up with a guillotine choke. Flick stands up with the choke, and he knees Schnell in the chest. Schnell stands so he does not take another knee, and Flick shoots for a double. When Flick transitions to a single, Schnell grips a guillotine and drags Flick to the canvas. “Danger” uses the maneuver to roll over into top position with 85 seconds to spare, and he is quick to take advantage of the position change by elbowing Flick in the cut. Flick scrambles and gives up his back, and Schnell gets both hooks in and instantly fastens a rear-naked choke. Flick fights the top hand to keep breathing, and Schnell briefly considers a neck crank but is more intent on maintaining a body lock than getting the tap. Schnell concludes the matchup with some ground strikes, and the two men hear the final bell and raise their arms in the air.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Matt Schnell, calling him the better fighter despite his compromised chin. He notes that Schnell is a solid striker with good BJJ, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with terrible striking stats (5.43 significant strikes absorbed per minute). He compares the choice to cat poop vs. dog poop, but concludes Schnell is the real fighter.
Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick, citing Matt Schnell's poor chin, takedown defense, and submission defense. He notes Schnell has been submitted three times and has no knockout power. He expects Flick to get a takedown and submit Schnell, predicting a first-round submission. He is shocked Schnell is a -300 favorite.
The host got Flick at plus 200 and believes his unorthodox grappling and jiu-jitsu will allow him to catch Schnell in a submission, despite Flick's absent striking game.
The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Flick as an underdog, despite acknowledging Schnell is technically better. He cannot trust Schnell's chin, as he gets knocked out too often at flyweight. He thinks Flick can make it a dirty fight and has submission ability. He admits his pick is based on a weird feeling and Schnell's chinny reputation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 37 of 75 | 49% | 41 of 80 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 2 | 0 | 2:41 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 89 of 168 | 52% | 139 of 234 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 14 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 46 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 56 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 37 of 75 | 49% | 8 of 26 | 21 of 35 | 8 of 14 | 28 of 64 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 89 of 168 | 52% | 63 of 135 | 17 of 23 | 9 of 10 | 64 of 131 | 19 of 26 | 6 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 14 of 31 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 30 of 56 | 53% | 19 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 5 of 16 | 31% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 33 of 61 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 9 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 18 of 28 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 26 of 51 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 17 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.
Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.
Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.
Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.
Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 37 of 70 | 52% | 74 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:13 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 4 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Flick | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 55 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:13 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Jimmy Flick | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Flick | 37 of 70 | 52% | 35 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 24 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Flick | 19 of 39 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 24 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jimmy Flick | 18 of 31 | 58% | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees both fighters as chinny grapplers with poor takedown defense and mediocre takedown offense. He believes Flick is the more dangerous grappler and that if Flick can get past Gordon's 9% takedown defense, he will have a significant advantage. However, he calls the fight super close and advises not betting on it due to too many variables.
Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging both fighters have terrible durability. He notes Flick's wrestling looked better than expected in past fights and believes Flick is the better grappler against Malcolm Gordon's 9% takedown defense. However, he expresses major concerns about Flick's mentality after a retirement and two knockout losses. He says he is not betting Flick but predicts a first-round submission.
Cody picks Flick as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage and Gordon's 9% takedown defense. He believes Flick will take Gordon down and submit him or control the fight. He notes Flick's motivation and improved cardio.
Daniel Vreeland refuses to pick a winner, calling both fighters fragile and untrustworthy at the UFC level. He notes both have no chins and are black belts who can submit each other, but he does not trust either. He advises against betting on this fight.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Flick vs Gordon.
I'm leaning with the underdog Jimmy Flick here. I don't think Gordon provides enough issues on the feet for Flick, and it's just a matter of time before the fight hits the mat. Even though Gordon might think he has the advantage there, I think Flick is a little too crafty for him and should get the better of him on the mat. I expect a submission finish within the first two rounds.
Paul picks Gordon but is not confident, noting his chin issues and lack of knockout power. He thinks Gordon's striking and jiu-jitsu should be enough, but he won't bet the -190. He acknowledges Flick's grappling threat.
The MMA Guru leans towards Malcolm Gordon due to physicality and reach advantages at flyweight. He notes Gordon's straight punches and ability to keep the fight standing as key factors. He acknowledges Gordon's chinny nature but believes his competition level is higher than Flick's. He predicts a TKO in the second round via straight punches.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Jimmy Flick | 1 | 65 of 91 | 71% | 65 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Jimmy Flick | 1 | 54 of 77 | 70% | 54 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 14 of 37 | 37% | 6 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 65 of 91 | 71% | 37 of 58 | 12 of 15 | 16 of 18 | 54 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 14 of 36 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 54 of 77 | 70% | 27 of 45 | 12 of 15 | 15 of 17 | 53 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 11 of 14 | 78% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-255), Flick (+215)
Round 1
Capping off the prelims, flyweights of Flick (16-6, 1-1 UFC) and Costa (12-3, 0-1 UFC) square off. “The Brick” has never before landed a knockout, with 88% of his wins coming by tapout, while Costa has never once been submitted. Something might have to give, and referee Keith Peterson is here for it if it does. The fight opens with a no nonsense glove touch, and Flick paws out after with a front kick. Costa slams a leg kick with emphasis on the calf, and Flick tries to get him back with another front kick only to miss. Costa stuffs a takedown after checking a kick, and he pushes Flick away and nails him with another calf kick. Flick jabs with the ball of his foot, and he ducks down low for an overhand right. Costa drills a kick to the body, and he starts chaining body shots together as Flick can do nothing but shell up. Costa pins two punches on Flick’s head before Flick realizes he has been struck, and he circles away while Flick is calculating the damage. Costa aims another left to the body, and Flick kicks low and just buzzes the hair with a high kick to follow. Costa backs Flick off with a one-two, and he absorbs a front kick to the midsection. Costa delivers another kick to the lead wheel, and he doubles up on it. Costa strings three punches together and kicks the calf, and the kick knocks Flick clean off his feet. Flick falls to his back, and Costa kicks at it once more before letting “The Brick” up. Flick stands, and he keeps that left leg back, as it is totally compromised. Costa decides to kick the other leg, and when Flick swaps again, he chops at it once more to nearly topple Flick over. “Nono” smashes Flick’s calf one more time, and Flick dives forward with a takedown. Flick cannot secure it, and he looks for a leglock that Costa shakes off and lets him get up. Flick is unable to plant on his leg, and Costa throws him down to the floor. Costa lines up several punches to the chin when Flick gets back up, and he nails Flick with a flying knee. Flick walks through a low kick to throw punches, and Costa is faster and more accurate. Costa rings Flick’s bell with speedy punches, and Flick’s face turns red as Costa seemingly cannot miss. Costa hammers Flick’s left leg with one last kick, and rips a right to the body as the horn sounds. Flick barely is able to limp back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Round 2
Flick is able to make it out of his corner, and he starts off in southpaw to keep his left leg behind him. Costa does not attack right out of the gate, and he lets Flick kick at him high. Costa times one single low kick, and Flick’s balance is shot and he can barely even lift his foot up.
Flick shoots in after hobbling back to put his arm in the fence to stay up, and Costa bowls him over and starts elbowing him. Flick threatens with some kind of submission, but Costa does not let him set anything up and starts blasting him with elbows. The Brazilian, seeing the finish might be around corner, batters Flick with these nasty elbows until Peterson has seen enough.
Costa strides away, his work done, and he celebrates his first victory inside the Octagon.
The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Jimmy Flick R2 1:03 via TKO (Elbows)
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by late first-round knockout. He is high on Costa, praising his BJJ black belt, grappling, and knockout power. He thinks Costa can dictate where the fight takes place and has good takedown defense. Flick's path is an early submission, but Brady doubts he can submit Costa. He questions Flick's cardio, toughness, and chin, noting Flick has five knockout losses. Brady expects Costa to land a big shot and finish Flick after weathering an early storm.
Cody is confident in Costa, citing Flick's poor durability and cardio. He notes that Flick has been knocked out in five of his six losses, often early, and that his boxing is poor. Costa showed good takedown defense against Amir Albazi, and Cody thinks he can stuff Flick's takedowns and win on the feet. He also plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early and fails to submit him.
Connor picks Costa, citing his more functional and modern MMA game compared to Flick's one-dimensional grappling. He notes that Costa is a cleaner puncher and that Flick's success depends entirely on landing a submission. Connor is concerned that Flick's aggression could be neutralized if Costa stays standing, as seen in Flick's loss to Charles Johnson. He acknowledges Costa's downside is matching Flick's aimlessness but believes Costa's power and takedown defense give him the edge.
Daniel Levi picks Alessandro Costa, citing his BJJ black belt under Diego Lopez and ability to defend submissions. He views Flick as submission-or-bust and believes Costa can handle that threat. He notes Flick's poor durability and that Costa should win if he avoids submissions. He acknowledges the high juice but sees it as a slam dunk.
Flick is a high-level BJJ player who is crafty from top position. Costa is a solid striker but his takedown defense and control on the ground are not impressive. Flick's stationary style of Costa should allow takedown opportunities. Even though Costa is a BJJ black belt, Flick's submission threat is real. The plus 210 line offers value. Flick wins by submission.
Paul is hesitant to lay -255 on Costa, given the question marks around him, but he picks Costa because Flick's cardio and durability are major issues. He notes that Flick looked terrible in his return against Charles Johnson and that Costa held his own against Albazi. Paul would not bet the moneyline but expects Costa to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa over Jimmy Flick, questioning Flick's return after a retirement and a first-round TKO loss to Charles Johnson. He notes Costa's loss to Amir Albazi is no shame, and that Costa has fought good opponents and learned lessons. He predicts Costa will finish Flick by TKO.
Zane picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging his limited game, which relies heavily on back takes and submissions. He notes that Flick is a consistent finisher and that Costa is 'just a guy' who may not have the foundation to stop Flick's chaos. However, he admits Flick's style is a Hail Mary and that Costa could win if he keeps it standing. Zane is hesitant because Flick's return is uncertain and he was easily handled by Charles Johnson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 34 of 57 | 59% | 44 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:39 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 34 of 57 | 59% | 44 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:39 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 34 of 57 | 59% | 20 of 39 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Jimmy Flick | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 34 of 57 | 59% | 20 of 39 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Jimmy Flick | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson, citing his well-roundedness and cardio. He thinks Flick's two-year layoff will be a factor and Johnson's takedown defense and boxing will prevail. He notes Johnson's power and pressure, but acknowledges Flick's submission threat. He considers -305 appropriate.
Big Brady picks Charles Johnson confidently, citing Johnson's takedown defense shown against Muhammad Mokaev and his striking advantage. He notes that Jimmy Flick is a submission specialist but struggles to get fights to the mat, and if he can't, he fades after the first round. He believes Johnson will keep the fight standing and finish Flick by knockout in the second round, as Flick has been knocked out before.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his submission defense and cardio. He notes Flick's poor chin and tendency to fade after the first round. He expects Johnson to survive early submission attempts and win by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He likes Johnson by TKO props.
Connor also picks Johnson, agreeing that Johnson has built-in advantages and is hard to outgrapple. However, he is not confident it will be decisive and notes that Flick could pull off a submission. Connor emphasizes that Johnson's passivity is a concern and that Flick's weird grappling could create opportunities.
Jacob picks Flick as an underdog, citing Johnson's overconfidence and potential grappling vulnerability. He notes Johnson's close fight with Zalgas and his cocky attitude. He thinks Flick's submission threat and layoff could lead to a surprise. He is not betting the moneyline but has bets on Flick for premium members.
Paul picks Flick as a value underdog, having bet him at +385 and +420. He notes Johnson's poor takedown defense and believes Flick's submission game can cause problems. He acknowledges the line has corrected and sees it as a hedge play.
Zane picks Johnson, highlighting Johnson's improved striking output in his last fight against Zuma Gulov and his strong defensive grappling, as shown against Muhammad Mokaev. He notes that Flick's striking is bad and that Johnson should be able to outgrapple him, but he is concerned that Johnson is inherently passive and may not push the pace. Zane also mentions that Flick is a dangerous submission artist who could pull off a miracle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 30 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Flick | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 30 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Flick | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 21 of 32 | 65% | 17 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Flick | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 21 of 32 | 65% | 17 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Dropping to the flyweight division, two men looking to get their first win inside the Octagon come to blows as submission-minded Flick (15-5, 0-0 UFC) makes his promotional debut against fellow finisher Durden (11-2-1, 0-0-1 UFC). The third man inside the cage for this rescheduled bout – the two were previously slated to compete two weeks ago, but Durden contracted conjunctivitis – is referee Jerin Valel, who observes the two touching gloves to precede the action. Flick fires off a leg kick, and it sails past his opponent. Durden aims a counter, and steps forward to land with a stern uppercut. Flick throws a left hand into a leg kick, and Durden grabs hold of him and tosses him down. Durden sits on top and flattens out a face-down Flick, and he starts hammering his foe with punches. “The Brick” is marked up but he scrambles to get back up to his feet thanks to the fence, although Durden is aiming for a mat return. Flick manages to avoid the trip attempts, and Durden pushes off but snaps out a stiff jab. Durden ducks down to loop an overhand right around Flick’s guard, and he stings Flick with a left hand to follow. Flick targets the leg with a few picks, but Durden marks him up with his hands. Flick throws a head kick and misses, and when he fails to hit a takedown, Durden capitalizes by wailing on Flick. Flick defends himself by shelling up against the fence. Flick breaks free and scores a front kick up the middle, and he slings a head kick that gets caught.
With his left leg in the air, Flick pulls guard with a flying triangle, and Durden is instantly in the danger zone as soon as he hits the ground. Flick locks up the triangle choke around the neck, Durden is trapped and cannot break himself free. As Flick transitions into a triangle armbar, Durden pulls his arm out while allowing Flick to tighten his grip. A few seconds elapse before Durden has to tap out, as his only other choice was to fall asleep.
What a comeback for Flick, who was likely down in the early going until landing that miraculous submission.
The Official Result
Jimmy Flick def. Cody Durden R1 3:18 via Submission (Flying Triangle Choke)
Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick over Cody Durden, citing Durden's double weight cut as a concern and his tendency to go for takedowns, which plays into Flick's submission game. He notes Flick's questionable chin but believes the fight will hit the mat, where Flick has the advantage. Brady predicts a first-round submission.
The host picks Flick but is very hesitant, calling it a toss-up. He believes Flick's submission threat will be key if he can initiate grappling, but notes Durden's wrestling background and power. He recommends the fight doesn't go to decision prop as the best play.
The Guru picks Cody Durden, changing his original pick. He believes Durden has improved jiu-jitsu and power, and that Flick has been KO'd multiple times. He notes Durden's draw with Chris Gutierrez was competitive, while Flick was TKO'd by Gutierrez. He predicts a TKO win for Durden in the first two rounds.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.
Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.
Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.
Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.
Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.
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