vs
-600 +500
UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nate Maness
3.14 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.88 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
0.68 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jimmy Flick
1.67 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.7 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
2.36 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
3.5 Sub. Avg
Nate Maness
Moneyline
BetMGM -600
KO/TKO
BetWay -225
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +650
Jimmy Flick
Moneyline
BetWay +500
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2200
Submission
DraftKings +900
Decision
FanDuel +1500
Nate Maness - Fight History
WIN vs Jimmy Flick
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 37 of 75 49% 41 of 80 1 of 8 12% 2 0 2:41
Jimmy Flick 0 89 of 168 52% 139 of 234 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:05
Jimmy Flick 0 30 of 56 53% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:27
2 Nate Maness 0 5 of 16 31% 7 of 19 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:50
Jimmy Flick 0 33 of 61 54% 46 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
3 Nate Maness 0 18 of 28 64% 20 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:46
Jimmy Flick 0 26 of 51 50% 56 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 37 of 75 49% 8 of 26 21 of 35 8 of 14 28 of 64 9 of 11 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 89 of 168 52% 63 of 135 17 of 23 9 of 10 64 of 131 19 of 26 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 14 of 31 45% 1 of 10 9 of 14 4 of 7 12 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 30 of 56 53% 19 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 24 of 50 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Nate Maness 5 of 16 31% 1 of 5 2 of 6 2 of 5 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 33 of 61 54% 26 of 50 6 of 10 1 of 1 23 of 42 6 of 10 4 of 9
3 Nate Maness 18 of 28 64% 6 of 11 10 of 15 2 of 2 11 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 26 of 51 50% 18 of 41 3 of 4 5 of 6 17 of 39 7 of 10 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.

Parlay suggestion
"Nate Maness is the pick man I don't see Nate Maness getting caught in a flying triangle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.

"Nate Maness rightful favorite... I think he wins this fight I'm picking him likely a top ticket guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.

"Nate should be able to use his length stay on the [__] feet don't grapple with this guy and just hit him in the face"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.

small sprinkle on Flick by submission
"I will still predict Maness to win this fight by knockout but a small sprinkle on flick by submission is is not a bad way to go about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.

"I like Nate Maness I think he wins and I do think that Jimmy Flick is probably sub or bust."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness I think he's a little bit more well-rounded and I think he can avoid the submissions and find a TKO maybe"
TKO (punches) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 29 of 35 82% 103 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Mateus Mendonça 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 29 of 35 82% 103 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Mateus Mendonça 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 29 of 35 82% 26 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 3 26 of 30
Mateus Mendonça 3 of 7 42% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 29 of 35 82% 26 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 3 26 of 30
Mateus Mendonça 3 of 7 42% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.

Waiting for +3.5 spread prop on Nate Maness
"I'm going to pick mandanka there because he is so dangerous"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.

"I'll take mandon to win this fight by decision but I think it's going to be a lot closer than this line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.

"I understand why he's the favorite I will be picking him but um I'm a little bit nervous about it as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.

wishes for better price (e.g., -185)
"I think Matteo's McDonald's is going to make a statement here and show that he is an emerging Prospect in the flyweight division"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Mateus Mendonça

Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.

Maness decision +550 (small bet)
"I'm going to predict mandona round 1 KO but I actually like Maness if you're GNA have a bet overall"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.

third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Nate Maness here and I think he actually finds a finish I'm going to call it a third round TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.

"I'm kind of having a better look at this one from a live betting spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.

"I'm going to go with mendonsa I think he has the finishing potential advantage"
LOSS vs Tagir Ulanbekov
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:11 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:34
Nate Maness 0 4 of 10 40% 23 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:34
Nate Maness 0 4 of 10 40% 23 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tagir Ulanbekov 4 of 9 44% 4 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2
Nate Maness 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 4 of 9 44% 4 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2
Nate Maness 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Angelo picks Maness as a heavy underdog, citing his better boxing, takedown defense, and ability to stick to a game plan. He notes Ulanbekov looked bad against Tim Elliott, not wrestling enough and being taken down easily. He considers a half-unit moneyline bet or a +3.5 prop.

maybe I'll convince myself to do a half a unit money line this could also be another plus three and a half spot
"I'm gonna go with Nate here because I think he's got the better boxing I know he's got the better takedown defense and I think I trust him to stick to a game plan"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Big Brady likes Ulanbekov's grappling and control, expecting him to take Maness down and keep him there. He notes Maness's poor get-up game and the fact that Maness is cutting to flyweight for the first time, which could affect his cardio. However, he is wary of Maness's ability to pull off wins and plans to stay away from betting on this fight.

Ulanbekov wins by decision
"I do like to gear here to win but again I'm staying away from this fight and Damon s is a guy that just keeps pulling off these wins"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Cody picks Nate Maness as a live underdog. He notes that Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC, with close split decisions against Bruno Silva and Alan Nascimento, and a loss to Tim Elliott where he was taken down and outstruck. Maness has shown heart and takedown defense, surviving Tony Gravely's wrestling and knocking him out in the second round. At 125 pounds, Maness may have better takedown defense and striking. Cody thinks Maness can keep the fight standing and land combinations, making Ulanbekov desperate and shooting takedowns. He recommends waiting for weigh-ins to see Maness at 125.

"for the purposes of this show I'll I'm gonna pick Nate manesse but like I'm really on the fence here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov, having bet him at -175 for two units. He believes Ulanbekov's grappling and top control will be too much for Nate Maness, who struggles to get up from bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's toughness and recent training with Khabib's team, and expects a dominant performance.

Bet 2 units at -175
"I played to gear at -175 to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

The host is concerned about Ulanbekov's inability to control opponents on the ground and his close fights. He acknowledges Maness's durability and striking power, but thinks Ulanbekov can land enough takedowns and clinch work to win a decision. He is not confident enough to bet at -190 and will stay away.

Ulanbekov by decision
"I am going to take tagira here I think he wins by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nate Maness as an underdog. He highlights Maness's takedown defense against Johnny Munoz (2 for 16) and Tony Gravely (1 for 6), and his ability to come back from adversity, as seen against Gravely where he broke his jaw and still won. Paul notes that Maness is moving down to 125, which could be an X-factor, as he may be stronger and have better takedown defense. He thinks Maness's striking is superior to Ulanbekov's, and that Ulanbekov's camp may underestimate Maness because Umar Nurmagomedov beat him easily. Paul locks in Maness as an underdog pick.

"lock me in for him as an underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov, criticizing Maness's performance against Umar Nurmagomedov where he accepted being on bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's quality grappling, evidenced by a split decision win over Allan Nascimento. He predicts Ulanbekov will control the fight, winning 29-28 by taking dominant positions in later rounds.

29-28 decision
"I'm gonna go with tagirol and beckov... win this 29-28 as the rounds go on."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 20 10% 46 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 74 of 100 74% 128 of 161 3 of 4 75% 0 0 10:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 10 10% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 18 of 21 85% 40 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 0 of 1 0% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 21 of 31 67% 32 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 9 11% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 35 of 48 72% 56 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 2 of 20 10% 1 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 74 of 100 74% 60 of 79 10 of 15 4 of 6 17 of 33 0 of 0 57 of 67
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 10 10% 0 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 18 of 21 85% 17 of 17 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 14
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 21 of 31 67% 18 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 26
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 35 of 48 72% 25 of 35 7 of 9 3 of 4 12 of 21 0 of 0 23 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.

"i am still going to pick namga madoff here i don't think this is like the first round destruction that everybody thinks it's going to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.

Umar wins by submission in round 1
"i like umar here i think he takes him down and once he does get him down i think it takes vanessa's back and i don't think he's surviving after that so give me uh umar manga met off first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.

"i'm agreeing with you inside the distance nine to one's a huge price tag because everybody's darling this week and the inside the distance would definitely help you"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.

Umar inside the distance -150 at DraftKings; Umar by TKO +400-+500
"i think cousin umar is like amazing i think he's gonna be a big problem for guys in this division for years to come i don't think nate mines is any sort of real threat"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host picks Umar Nurmagomedov, trusting his skills and noting he makes low-level opponents look easy. He believes Umar will hurt Maness on the feet and then secure a submission in the second round. He criticizes Maness's last win over Tony Gravely as a fluke and doubts his grappling will be enough.

second round submission prediction
"i'm going to go with umar nurmagomedov winning this one"
WIN vs Tony Gravely
TKO (punches) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 1 31 of 63 49% 64 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Tony Gravely 1 36 of 68 52% 44 of 77 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 15 of 35 42% 45 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Tony Gravely 1 26 of 41 63% 32 of 48 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:53
2 Nate Maness 1 16 of 28 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Tony Gravely 0 10 of 27 37% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 31 of 63 49% 26 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 52 2 of 2 8 of 9
Tony Gravely 36 of 68 52% 18 of 43 8 of 11 10 of 14 25 of 55 8 of 10 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 15 of 35 42% 12 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tony Gravely 26 of 41 63% 11 of 23 6 of 8 9 of 10 17 of 32 6 of 6 3 of 3
2 Nate Maness 16 of 28 57% 14 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 8 of 9
Tony Gravely 10 of 27 37% 7 of 20 2 of 3 1 of 4 8 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely but is hesitant. He thinks Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will win two rounds, but Nate Maness is well-rounded and will likely win a round. He placed a bet on Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (win a round) at even money, expecting Gravely to win 29-28. He notes Gravely's cardio issues and Maness's size.

Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (even money)
"i have tony gravely as my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely, citing his relentless wrestling and top control. He notes Maness has good takedown defense initially but offers little on his back. Gravely has never been knocked out, and Maness has zero submissions off his back. He predicts a first-round TKO for Gravely.

first round TKO
"i'll say tony gravely wins by my first round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Cody picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and improvements at American Top Team. He notes that Maness has suspect cardio and was nearly finished by Luke Sanders before coming back. Cody believes Gravely's chain wrestling will wear down Maness, though he admits the price is high.

Maness by submission +1100 (sprinkle)
"i am going to go gravely i wouldn't fault you for taking nate my nest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely. He describes Maness as average in all areas, while Gravely is a grappling specialist. He notes Gravely has been submitted before but that's due to his large sample size. He worries about judges not understanding grappling, citing the De Freitas fight where one judge scored against Gravely. He advises caution but picks Gravely.

proceed with caution due to judging
"i got gravely man it's just these judges you gotta be careful so i'd say proceed with caution there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tony Gravely

Preet picks Gravely because he believes Gravely's wrestling is on a different level than Maness has faced. He thinks Maness will back up to the cage and get taken down, where Gravely can pass guard and finish. He likes Gravely inside the distance at +235 and under 2.5 rounds at +155.

Tony Gravely inside the distance +235, Under 2.5 rounds +155
"I actually like gravley uh inside the distance here I do think that he'll go out there and get the finisher against a guy like nate maness"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Paul leans toward Gravely but is not confident due to the price. He notes that Maness has shown the ability to come back from bad first rounds. Paul suggests live betting Maness if he loses the first round.

"i think gravely has made the improvements... i just think that he's starting to put it all together"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness over Tony Gravely, citing Maness's superior grappling and ability to out-grapple Gravely, who struggled with Geraldo de Freitas. He notes Maness is an underdog and calls it a good value pick. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

underdog pick
"nate minnes being a better grappler than him and being a better grappler than geraldo defletas"
WIN vs Luke Sanders
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:29 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 55 of 112 49% 63 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Luke Sanders 1 33 of 70 47% 38 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 30 of 61 49% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Luke Sanders 0 13 of 30 43% 15 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Nate Maness 0 25 of 51 49% 26 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Luke Sanders 1 20 of 40 50% 23 of 43 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 55 of 112 49% 40 of 90 7 of 9 8 of 13 47 of 102 8 of 10 0 of 0
Luke Sanders 33 of 70 47% 27 of 62 4 of 6 2 of 2 28 of 62 3 of 5 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 30 of 61 49% 19 of 43 5 of 7 6 of 11 25 of 55 5 of 6 0 of 0
Luke Sanders 13 of 30 43% 10 of 26 1 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nate Maness 25 of 51 49% 21 of 47 2 of 2 2 of 2 22 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
Luke Sanders 20 of 40 50% 17 of 36 3 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 33 3 of 4 2 of 3
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 49 of 78 62% 129 of 168 2 of 16 12% 1 0 9:42
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 21 of 50 42% 158 of 194 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 19 of 38 50% 51 of 78 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:16
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 2 of 15 13% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Maness 0 14 of 22 63% 33 of 42 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:46
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 10 of 18 55% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
3 Nate Maness 0 16 of 18 88% 45 of 48 0 of 3 0% 1 0 3:40
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 9 of 17 52% 80 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 49 of 78 62% 18 of 34 25 of 36 6 of 8 16 of 40 20 of 21 13 of 17
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 21 of 50 42% 9 of 37 12 of 13 0 of 0 7 of 34 14 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 19 of 38 50% 13 of 25 3 of 8 3 of 5 5 of 20 1 of 1 13 of 17
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 2 of 15 13% 2 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Maness 14 of 22 63% 2 of 5 10 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 14 7 of 8 0 of 0
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Nate Maness 16 of 18 88% 3 of 4 12 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 6 12 of 12 0 of 0
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 9 of 17 52% 1 of 8 8 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 7 9 of 10 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Nate Maness

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. The host did not mention Nate Maness vs Johnny Muñoz Jr. at all.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)

The host picks Ray Borg, stating that Borg is a much better grappler and that Maness has not faced high-level competition. He notes that Borg is only 26 and not on the decline, and that Maness will be hesitant to throw bombs due to Borg's takedown threat. He expects Borg to grind out a decision or possibly finish later in the fight. He also mentions the line is a steal and expects it to close higher.

"i'm taking ray borg and i think he could possibly even finish madness later in the fight but i will be on the safe side i'll take him to one by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The host picks Ray Borg (Nate Maness's opponent) to win by unanimous decision. He praises Borg's youth (26), grappling, and recent activity, and notes that Maness hasn't fought anyone of Borg's caliber. He believes Borg will grind out a win with takedowns and control, and that Maness lacks the experience against high-level grapplers.

unanimous decision
"i think ray ball grinds this one out for a unanimous decision win getting the job done against nathan meneses"
Jimmy Flick - Fight History
LOSS vs Matt Schnell
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Schnell 0 35 of 61 57% 88 of 117 0 of 0 --- 3 1 3:53
Jimmy Flick 0 12 of 20 60% 48 of 60 5 of 7 71% 1 1 8:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Schnell 0 6 of 15 40% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Flick 0 8 of 11 72% 33 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:41
2 Matt Schnell 0 18 of 25 72% 46 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:28
Jimmy Flick 0 3 of 4 75% 11 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:14
3 Matt Schnell 0 11 of 21 52% 22 of 32 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:25
Jimmy Flick 0 1 of 5 20% 4 of 10 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Schnell 35 of 61 57% 33 of 58 1 of 1 1 of 2 12 of 34 4 of 4 19 of 23
Jimmy Flick 12 of 20 60% 8 of 13 0 of 2 4 of 5 8 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Schnell 6 of 15 40% 5 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 8 of 11 72% 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Matt Schnell 18 of 25 72% 18 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 1 of 1 15 of 19
Jimmy Flick 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Matt Schnell 11 of 21 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 4
Jimmy Flick 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jimmy Flick vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Schnell (-285), Flick (+230)

Round 1
An interesting matchup between flyweight finishers concludes the long prelims. This is a pivotal one for both men, as they are both struggling as of late. Schnell (16-9, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC) fell below .500 in the UFC while riding a three-fight skid, with the third of those nearly forcing him into retirement. Like Schnell, Flick (17-8, 2-3 UFC) also offered a retirement that did not stick a few years ago, but with one win in his last four outings, it’s make or break for him. Referee Dan Miragliotta may be needed for the bout’s entire duration, but the judges might be able to kick back and relax when the two 125ers engage. Before searching for the stoppage that may soon come, the fighters cordially touch ‘em up first. Schnell is light on his feet as he ramps up his offense, not letting Flick get off much of his own as he peppers his foe with strikes. Flick walks into a right hand and ducks away to reset, and Schnell splits the guard with a jab. Flick surges into action with three swiping left hands, and he uses the surprise offense to shoot in for a single. Schnell remains on his feet, and Flick chases after him and bullies him to the wall. Flick pursues the takedown, tripping out Schnell’s right leg to place him on his seat. As Schnell scrambles, Flick jumps over to half guard and then the side, where he looks for an arm-triangle choke. Schnell walks off the face, pushing Flick off of him and setting up a potential triangle choke. Schnell loops his left leg around the shoulder, and Flick powers his weight down to stifle the triangle. Schnell drags Flick back to half guard, and he wraps punches around the head and lands a few to the back of the dome as well. Schnell re-closes his guard, and Flick takes advantage of this opportunity by hacking down with elbows. Schnell’s possible triangle setup comes up short as Flick no-sells it, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Flick

Round 2
Schnell comes out of his corner looking for kicks, and his first is a calf kick. Flick comes up top with a right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Schnell defends with a guillotine choke, but the impact of the two hitting the canvas breaks the grip. Flick lands in half guard and pressures down with his shoulder for the first step of an arm-triangle choke, and he wraps his hands together to further go after it. Flick keeps staying after the arm-triangle, and he allows Schnell to turn to his side so he can slither around and take the back. Flick adjusts his grip and searches for a side-naked choke, but Schnell’s arm is in to give him enough space to survive. Schnell turns using his feet on the wall to fight out of the sub, and Flick is subsequently returned to full guard. “The Brick” imposes his body weight down, and Schnell defends by hooking his leg around Flick’s shoulder for an omoplata. Flick sits up, and he jumps guard for a guillotine choke. Schnell tosses the arm grip aside and starts mounting offense, hammering the submission specialist with punches until Flick uses butterfly hooks to gain some space. When Schnell stands upright, Flick beans him with an upkick. Schnell shakes it off and keeps Flick on the ground by striking him. Flick again postures up and jumps for a guillotine and it is much tighter. “Danger” remains composed and is not concerned of the danger of the sub, and he wriggles his neck free and lashes out with nasty ground-and-pound that splits Flick’s forehead open. Schnell defends with a hard elbow and jumps guard for a guillotine, and Miragliotta thinks the 10-second clapper is the bell again and touches the fighters. Schnell releases the grip, expecting the round is over, and Flick is arguably saved by this mistake as the power guillotine was frighteningly tight. As Schnell rolls Flick over, the horn does sound.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell

Round 3
The third round opens with Schnell willing to engage in the striking, and Flick does the same for a brief spell until he grabs hold of Schnell’s leg for a single. Schnell hits his back and wraps his leg up for a possible triangle, and when that fails, he kicks Flick off of him. Flick appears dazed as blood streams down his face, and Schnell is the fresher of the two and jumps to his feet first. Flick follows him, and he shoots for a double. Schnell defends with a 10-finger guillotine, and Flick appears to tap a single time as he was pushing on Schnell’s leg to thwart the submission. Flick breaks out of the sub and lowers himself to his back, and he turns to his side and sits up to try to put Schnell on his back. Schnell leans against the wall, and Flick still tries to wrap him up with a guillotine choke. Flick stands up with the choke, and he knees Schnell in the chest. Schnell stands so he does not take another knee, and Flick shoots for a double. When Flick transitions to a single, Schnell grips a guillotine and drags Flick to the canvas. “Danger” uses the maneuver to roll over into top position with 85 seconds to spare, and he is quick to take advantage of the position change by elbowing Flick in the cut. Flick scrambles and gives up his back, and Schnell gets both hooks in and instantly fastens a rear-naked choke. Flick fights the top hand to keep breathing, and Schnell briefly considers a neck crank but is more intent on maintaining a body lock than getting the tap. Schnell concludes the matchup with some ground strikes, and the two men hear the final bell and raise their arms in the air.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)

The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Angelo picks Matt Schnell, calling him the better fighter despite his compromised chin. He notes that Schnell is a solid striker with good BJJ, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with terrible striking stats (5.43 significant strikes absorbed per minute). He compares the choice to cat poop vs. dog poop, but concludes Schnell is the real fighter.

"Matchell is the better fighter though. So cat poop's better than dog poop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick, citing Matt Schnell's poor chin, takedown defense, and submission defense. He notes Schnell has been submitted three times and has no knockout power. He expects Flick to get a takedown and submit Schnell, predicting a first-round submission. He is shocked Schnell is a -300 favorite.

first round submission
"I'll take Jimmy Flick to to tap out Matt Schnell and retire him uh once again. So, yeah, they give me Jimmy Flick by first round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Flick

The host got Flick at plus 200 and believes his unorthodox grappling and jiu-jitsu will allow him to catch Schnell in a submission, despite Flick's absent striking game.

submission, got him at +200
"I believe he has a unorthodox enough grappling and jiu-jitsu game to eventually catch Snell in something and eventually pull off a submission victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Flick as an underdog, despite acknowledging Schnell is technically better. He cannot trust Schnell's chin, as he gets knocked out too often at flyweight. He thinks Flick can make it a dirty fight and has submission ability. He admits his pick is based on a weird feeling and Schnell's chinny reputation.

"I'm gonna go Jimmy Flick for some [__] weird reason. I just can't trust Matt Neell to make it through a fight without being chinned."
LOSS vs Nate Maness
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 37 of 75 49% 41 of 80 1 of 8 12% 2 0 2:41
Jimmy Flick 0 89 of 168 52% 139 of 234 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:05
Jimmy Flick 0 30 of 56 53% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:27
2 Nate Maness 0 5 of 16 31% 7 of 19 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:50
Jimmy Flick 0 33 of 61 54% 46 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
3 Nate Maness 0 18 of 28 64% 20 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:46
Jimmy Flick 0 26 of 51 50% 56 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 37 of 75 49% 8 of 26 21 of 35 8 of 14 28 of 64 9 of 11 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 89 of 168 52% 63 of 135 17 of 23 9 of 10 64 of 131 19 of 26 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 14 of 31 45% 1 of 10 9 of 14 4 of 7 12 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 30 of 56 53% 19 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 24 of 50 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Nate Maness 5 of 16 31% 1 of 5 2 of 6 2 of 5 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 33 of 61 54% 26 of 50 6 of 10 1 of 1 23 of 42 6 of 10 4 of 9
3 Nate Maness 18 of 28 64% 6 of 11 10 of 15 2 of 2 11 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 26 of 51 50% 18 of 41 3 of 4 5 of 6 17 of 39 7 of 10 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.

Parlay suggestion
"Nate Maness is the pick man I don't see Nate Maness getting caught in a flying triangle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.

"Nate Maness rightful favorite... I think he wins this fight I'm picking him likely a top ticket guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.

"Nate should be able to use his length stay on the [__] feet don't grapple with this guy and just hit him in the face"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.

small sprinkle on Flick by submission
"I will still predict Maness to win this fight by knockout but a small sprinkle on flick by submission is is not a bad way to go about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.

"I like Nate Maness I think he wins and I do think that Jimmy Flick is probably sub or bust."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness I think he's a little bit more well-rounded and I think he can avoid the submissions and find a TKO maybe"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 1:17 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Flick 0 37 of 70 52% 74 of 116 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:13
Malcolm Gordon 0 3 of 7 42% 7 of 11 1 of 4 25% 4 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Flick 0 19 of 39 48% 55 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:13
Malcolm Gordon 0 0 of 2 0% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0% 2 0 0:28
2 Jimmy Flick 0 18 of 31 58% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Malcolm Gordon 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Flick 37 of 70 52% 35 of 67 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 5 of 5 14 of 24
Malcolm Gordon 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Flick 19 of 39 48% 18 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 13 2 of 2 14 of 24
Malcolm Gordon 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jimmy Flick 18 of 31 58% 17 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Malcolm Gordon 3 of 5 60% 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Angelo sees both fighters as chinny grapplers with poor takedown defense and mediocre takedown offense. He believes Flick is the more dangerous grappler and that if Flick can get past Gordon's 9% takedown defense, he will have a significant advantage. However, he calls the fight super close and advises not betting on it due to too many variables.

Do not bet on this fight
"I will ever so slightly lean flick here and that is only based off the grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging both fighters have terrible durability. He notes Flick's wrestling looked better than expected in past fights and believes Flick is the better grappler against Malcolm Gordon's 9% takedown defense. However, he expresses major concerns about Flick's mentality after a retirement and two knockout losses. He says he is not betting Flick but predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"give me flick to go out there and sub Malcolm Gordon in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Cody picks Flick as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage and Gordon's 9% takedown defense. He believes Flick will take Gordon down and submit him or control the fight. He notes Flick's motivation and improved cardio.

Flick by submission at +345
"I think this is a Jimmy flick pick... flick by submission is live."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland refuses to pick a winner, calling both fighters fragile and untrustworthy at the UFC level. He notes both have no chins and are black belts who can submit each other, but he does not trust either. He advises against betting on this fight.

"I don't even want to pick this fight I don't even want to watch this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Flick vs Gordon.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

I'm leaning with the underdog Jimmy Flick here. I don't think Gordon provides enough issues on the feet for Flick, and it's just a matter of time before the fight hits the mat. Even though Gordon might think he has the advantage there, I think Flick is a little too crafty for him and should get the better of him on the mat. I expect a submission finish within the first two rounds.

submission finish, inside first two rounds, plus 110 underdog
"I'm actually going to lean with the underdog ever so slightly here with Jimmy flick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Malcolm Gordon

Paul picks Gordon but is not confident, noting his chin issues and lack of knockout power. He thinks Gordon's striking and jiu-jitsu should be enough, but he won't bet the -190. He acknowledges Flick's grappling threat.

"Malcolm Gordon will be the pick for me... I ain't betting Gordon as a chalk favorite."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Malcolm Gordon

The MMA Guru leans towards Malcolm Gordon due to physicality and reach advantages at flyweight. He notes Gordon's straight punches and ability to keep the fight standing as key factors. He acknowledges Gordon's chinny nature but believes his competition level is higher than Flick's. He predicts a TKO in the second round via straight punches.

TKO in round 2
"I am leaning towards Malcolm Gordon here over Jimmy flick for multiple reasons one little bit of a physicality Advantage at flyweight over Jimmy flick in my opinion two re Advantage at flyweight he's got three inches of reach over …"
TKO (elbows) R2 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:14
Jimmy Flick 1 65 of 91 71% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:14
Jimmy Flick 1 54 of 77 70% 54 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Alessandro Costa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Flick 0 11 of 14 78% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 14 of 37 37% 6 of 27 5 of 7 3 of 3 14 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 65 of 91 71% 37 of 58 12 of 15 16 of 18 54 of 76 0 of 0 11 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 3 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 54 of 77 70% 27 of 45 12 of 15 15 of 17 53 of 75 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Alessandro Costa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 11 of 14 78% 10 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Jimmy Flick
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-255), Flick (+215)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims, flyweights of Flick (16-6, 1-1 UFC) and Costa (12-3, 0-1 UFC) square off. “The Brick” has never before landed a knockout, with 88% of his wins coming by tapout, while Costa has never once been submitted. Something might have to give, and referee Keith Peterson is here for it if it does. The fight opens with a no nonsense glove touch, and Flick paws out after with a front kick. Costa slams a leg kick with emphasis on the calf, and Flick tries to get him back with another front kick only to miss. Costa stuffs a takedown after checking a kick, and he pushes Flick away and nails him with another calf kick. Flick jabs with the ball of his foot, and he ducks down low for an overhand right. Costa drills a kick to the body, and he starts chaining body shots together as Flick can do nothing but shell up. Costa pins two punches on Flick’s head before Flick realizes he has been struck, and he circles away while Flick is calculating the damage. Costa aims another left to the body, and Flick kicks low and just buzzes the hair with a high kick to follow. Costa backs Flick off with a one-two, and he absorbs a front kick to the midsection. Costa delivers another kick to the lead wheel, and he doubles up on it. Costa strings three punches together and kicks the calf, and the kick knocks Flick clean off his feet. Flick falls to his back, and Costa kicks at it once more before letting “The Brick” up. Flick stands, and he keeps that left leg back, as it is totally compromised. Costa decides to kick the other leg, and when Flick swaps again, he chops at it once more to nearly topple Flick over. “Nono” smashes Flick’s calf one more time, and Flick dives forward with a takedown. Flick cannot secure it, and he looks for a leglock that Costa shakes off and lets him get up. Flick is unable to plant on his leg, and Costa throws him down to the floor. Costa lines up several punches to the chin when Flick gets back up, and he nails Flick with a flying knee. Flick walks through a low kick to throw punches, and Costa is faster and more accurate. Costa rings Flick’s bell with speedy punches, and Flick’s face turns red as Costa seemingly cannot miss. Costa hammers Flick’s left leg with one last kick, and rips a right to the body as the horn sounds. Flick barely is able to limp back to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Costa

Round 2
Flick is able to make it out of his corner, and he starts off in southpaw to keep his left leg behind him. Costa does not attack right out of the gate, and he lets Flick kick at him high. Costa times one single low kick, and Flick’s balance is shot and he can barely even lift his foot up.
Flick shoots in after hobbling back to put his arm in the fence to stay up, and Costa bowls him over and starts elbowing him. Flick threatens with some kind of submission, but Costa does not let him set anything up and starts blasting him with elbows. The Brazilian, seeing the finish might be around corner, batters Flick with these nasty elbows until Peterson has seen enough.
Costa strides away, his work done, and he celebrates his first victory inside the Octagon.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Jimmy Flick R2 1:03 via TKO (Elbows)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by late first-round knockout. He is high on Costa, praising his BJJ black belt, grappling, and knockout power. He thinks Costa can dictate where the fight takes place and has good takedown defense. Flick's path is an early submission, but Brady doubts he can submit Costa. He questions Flick's cardio, toughness, and chin, noting Flick has five knockout losses. Brady expects Costa to land a big shot and finish Flick after weathering an early storm.

"I think he gets knocked out here late first round knockout for me for Alessandra Costa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody is confident in Costa, citing Flick's poor durability and cardio. He notes that Flick has been knocked out in five of his six losses, often early, and that his boxing is poor. Costa showed good takedown defense against Amir Albazi, and Cody thinks he can stuff Flick's takedowns and win on the feet. He also plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early and fails to submit him.

plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early
"I will take Costa but of course with uh anytime you're betting against a Jimmy flick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor picks Costa, citing his more functional and modern MMA game compared to Flick's one-dimensional grappling. He notes that Costa is a cleaner puncher and that Flick's success depends entirely on landing a submission. Connor is concerned that Flick's aggression could be neutralized if Costa stays standing, as seen in Flick's loss to Charles Johnson. He acknowledges Costa's downside is matching Flick's aimlessness but believes Costa's power and takedown defense give him the edge.

Costa by decision or TKO; Costa at -252 is 'undeservedly good odds'
"I'll stick with coast. I don't believe in this flick return and I don't like it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Levi picks Alessandro Costa, citing his BJJ black belt under Diego Lopez and ability to defend submissions. He views Flick as submission-or-bust and believes Costa can handle that threat. He notes Flick's poor durability and that Costa should win if he avoids submissions. He acknowledges the high juice but sees it as a slam dunk.

"I think this is pretty much a slam dunk spot for Costa"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Flick is a high-level BJJ player who is crafty from top position. Costa is a solid striker but his takedown defense and control on the ground are not impressive. Flick's stationary style of Costa should allow takedown opportunities. Even though Costa is a BJJ black belt, Flick's submission threat is real. The plus 210 line offers value. Flick wins by submission.

Flick wins by submission at +210
"I like flick at this number I agree that Costa should be the favorite I just don't know if the line should be this wide so give me Jimmy flick here and I think he might pull off a submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul is hesitant to lay -255 on Costa, given the question marks around him, but he picks Costa because Flick's cardio and durability are major issues. He notes that Flick looked terrible in his return against Charles Johnson and that Costa held his own against Albazi. Paul would not bet the moneyline but expects Costa to win.

"I guess he'll be my pick I just don't know if I can get back to to Jimmy until I see it uh in action"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa over Jimmy Flick, questioning Flick's return after a retirement and a first-round TKO loss to Charles Johnson. He notes Costa's loss to Amir Albazi is no shame, and that Costa has fought good opponents and learned lessons. He predicts Costa will finish Flick by TKO.

"I'm gonna side with Alessandro Costa here over Jimmy flick I don't like why Jimmy flick is coming back"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Zane picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging his limited game, which relies heavily on back takes and submissions. He notes that Flick is a consistent finisher and that Costa is 'just a guy' who may not have the foundation to stop Flick's chaos. However, he admits Flick's style is a Hail Mary and that Costa could win if he keeps it standing. Zane is hesitant because Flick's return is uncertain and he was easily handled by Charles Johnson.

Flick by submission; Flick is a big underdog at +218
"I'm going to take flick for finishing potential."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 4:33 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 34 of 57 59% 44 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:39
Jimmy Flick 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 34 of 57 59% 44 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:39
Jimmy Flick 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 34 of 57 59% 20 of 39 10 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 38 0 of 0 12 of 19
Jimmy Flick 7 of 13 53% 3 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 34 of 57 59% 20 of 39 10 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 38 0 of 0 12 of 19
Jimmy Flick 7 of 13 53% 3 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Johnson, citing his well-roundedness and cardio. He thinks Flick's two-year layoff will be a factor and Johnson's takedown defense and boxing will prevail. He notes Johnson's power and pressure, but acknowledges Flick's submission threat. He considers -305 appropriate.

"Charles Johnson should get this done to three to one odds makes sense to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson confidently, citing Johnson's takedown defense shown against Muhammad Mokaev and his striking advantage. He notes that Jimmy Flick is a submission specialist but struggles to get fights to the mat, and if he can't, he fades after the first round. He believes Johnson will keep the fight standing and finish Flick by knockout in the second round, as Flick has been knocked out before.

Johnson by second round knockout
"I think Charles Johnson gives Jimmy flick his fifth knockout loss here and I think Charles Johnson gets it done in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his submission defense and cardio. He notes Flick's poor chin and tendency to fade after the first round. He expects Johnson to survive early submission attempts and win by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He likes Johnson by TKO props.

Charles Johnson round 2 at +500, round 3 at +900
"Charles Johnson is going to put a straight up beating on him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor also picks Johnson, agreeing that Johnson has built-in advantages and is hard to outgrapple. However, he is not confident it will be decisive and notes that Flick could pull off a submission. Connor emphasizes that Johnson's passivity is a concern and that Flick's weird grappling could create opportunities.

"I will also pick Charles Johnson okay because he does have just built-in advantages but I'm not sure it's gonna be very decisive one way or the other"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Jacob picks Flick as an underdog, citing Johnson's overconfidence and potential grappling vulnerability. He notes Johnson's close fight with Zalgas and his cocky attitude. He thinks Flick's submission threat and layoff could lead to a surprise. He is not betting the moneyline but has bets on Flick for premium members.

Has bets on Jimmy Flick for premium members
"I put some bets on Jimmy Floyd"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Paul picks Flick as a value underdog, having bet him at +385 and +420. He notes Johnson's poor takedown defense and believes Flick's submission game can cause problems. He acknowledges the line has corrected and sees it as a hedge play.

Bet Flick at +385 and +420 for 0.5 units total
"I scooped up some plus 385 and plus 420"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, highlighting Johnson's improved striking output in his last fight against Zuma Gulov and his strong defensive grappling, as shown against Muhammad Mokaev. He notes that Flick's striking is bad and that Johnson should be able to outgrapple him, but he is concerned that Johnson is inherently passive and may not push the pace. Zane also mentions that Flick is a dangerous submission artist who could pull off a miracle.

Odds mentioned: Johnson opened at -134, dropped to -445, currently -358; Flick opened at +114, jumped to +316, currently +279. Zane comments that the odds are too wide.
"I'm gonna pick Johnson here... I don't really see how Jimmy wins... I'm not sure I really see how he's gonna lose either"
WIN vs Cody Durden
Submission (flying triangle choke) R1 3:18 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Flick 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 15 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 21 of 32 65% 30 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Flick 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 15 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 21 of 32 65% 30 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Flick 6 of 14 42% 4 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 6 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 21 of 32 65% 17 of 28 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Flick 6 of 14 42% 4 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 6 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 21 of 32 65% 17 of 28 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Jimmy Flick

Round 1
Dropping to the flyweight division, two men looking to get their first win inside the Octagon come to blows as submission-minded Flick (15-5, 0-0 UFC) makes his promotional debut against fellow finisher Durden (11-2-1, 0-0-1 UFC). The third man inside the cage for this rescheduled bout – the two were previously slated to compete two weeks ago, but Durden contracted conjunctivitis – is referee Jerin Valel, who observes the two touching gloves to precede the action. Flick fires off a leg kick, and it sails past his opponent. Durden aims a counter, and steps forward to land with a stern uppercut. Flick throws a left hand into a leg kick, and Durden grabs hold of him and tosses him down. Durden sits on top and flattens out a face-down Flick, and he starts hammering his foe with punches. “The Brick” is marked up but he scrambles to get back up to his feet thanks to the fence, although Durden is aiming for a mat return. Flick manages to avoid the trip attempts, and Durden pushes off but snaps out a stiff jab. Durden ducks down to loop an overhand right around Flick’s guard, and he stings Flick with a left hand to follow. Flick targets the leg with a few picks, but Durden marks him up with his hands. Flick throws a head kick and misses, and when he fails to hit a takedown, Durden capitalizes by wailing on Flick. Flick defends himself by shelling up against the fence. Flick breaks free and scores a front kick up the middle, and he slings a head kick that gets caught.
With his left leg in the air, Flick pulls guard with a flying triangle, and Durden is instantly in the danger zone as soon as he hits the ground. Flick locks up the triangle choke around the neck, Durden is trapped and cannot break himself free. As Flick transitions into a triangle armbar, Durden pulls his arm out while allowing Flick to tighten his grip. A few seconds elapse before Durden has to tap out, as his only other choice was to fall asleep.
What a comeback for Flick, who was likely down in the early going until landing that miraculous submission.

The Official Result
Jimmy Flick def. Cody Durden R1 3:18 via Submission (Flying Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick over Cody Durden, citing Durden's double weight cut as a concern and his tendency to go for takedowns, which plays into Flick's submission game. He notes Flick's questionable chin but believes the fight will hit the mat, where Flick has the advantage. Brady predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"give me jimmy flick to get it done by first round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

The host picks Flick but is very hesitant, calling it a toss-up. He believes Flick's submission threat will be key if he can initiate grappling, but notes Durden's wrestling background and power. He recommends the fight doesn't go to decision prop as the best play.

Fight doesn't go to decision -265
"i'm gonna go with flick here though i feel like he will be able to initiate the grappling in some way or another"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The Guru picks Cody Durden, changing his original pick. He believes Durden has improved jiu-jitsu and power, and that Flick has been KO'd multiple times. He notes Durden's draw with Chris Gutierrez was competitive, while Flick was TKO'd by Gutierrez. He predicts a TKO win for Durden in the first two rounds.

Predicts a TKO win for Durden as an underdog.
"i'm going to go with cody durden getting the job done... durden's going to tko in with ground and pound in the first two rounds i'm going to go with cody durden by tko with an upset win"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.

Parlay suggestion
"Nate Maness is the pick man I don't see Nate Maness getting caught in a flying triangle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.

"Nate Maness rightful favorite... I think he wins this fight I'm picking him likely a top ticket guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.

"Nate should be able to use his length stay on the [__] feet don't grapple with this guy and just hit him in the face"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.

small sprinkle on Flick by submission
"I will still predict Maness to win this fight by knockout but a small sprinkle on flick by submission is is not a bad way to go about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.

"I like Nate Maness I think he wins and I do think that Jimmy Flick is probably sub or bust."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness I think he's a little bit more well-rounded and I think he can avoid the submissions and find a TKO maybe"