Career Averages - Michael Chiesa
Career Averages - Court McGee
Michael Chiesa
Court McGee
Michael Chiesa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.
Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.
Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.
Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.
The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.
Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.
Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 72 of 160 | 45% | 81 of 169 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 39 of 145 | 26% | 51 of 158 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 20 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 72 of 160 | 45% | 47 of 128 | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 132 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 39 of 145 | 26% | 9 of 95 | 16 of 29 | 14 of 21 | 36 of 140 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 10 of 41 | 24% | 2 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 24 of 57 | 42% | 20 of 53 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 17 of 58 | 29% | 4 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 16 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 33 of 58 | 56% | 12 of 34 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 36 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 12 of 46 | 26% | 3 of 29 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.
Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.
The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 54 of 87 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 18 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 12 of 25 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 13 of 39 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 29 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 10 of 34 | 29% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Griffin (-125), Chiesa (+105)
Round 1
It’s a quintessential grappler vs. striker matchup to hold serve in the welterweight division, as two aging vets look to show the matchmakers they still have plenty to offer even as losses have piled up of late. Birthday boy Chiesa (17-7, 12-7 UFC) snapped a career-long skid by tapping Tony Ferguson in August, while Griffin (20-10, 8-8 UFC) has alternated wins and losses in his last five. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the Octagon for the next three rounds or fewer, and he kicks the fight off as the 170ers opt not to bump fists. Chiesa strafes around the cage, not letting himself slow down so that Griffin can cut him off. Griffin walks him down, but he is unable to corner him early. Chiesa keeps his front hand open to engage with grappling instead of throwing it, and he hand-fights Griffin’s lead hand in the other stance. Chiesa punches his way into a takedown attempt, clipping Griffin with a left before dragging him to a knee. Griffin leans himself against the cage, and “Maverick” glides behind him. Chiesa slithers a hook in to tangle Griffin up, and Griffin stands up. Chiesa gets the other hook in from behind and he wraps his legs together to hang on as a mean-spirited backpack. Griffin wriggles his foe off of him and separates, resetting at striking range. Chiesa bounces and keeps moving, whipping a high kick that slaps off the raised guard. Griffin catches Chiesa in the midst of an exchange, and Chiesa’s counter is so wild he nearly swings himself down to the ground. Griffin lets him recover so he can stick him with a right hand, and Chiesa’s reaction is uncomfortable as he is momentarily stunned. Griffin loads up on power strikes, drawing some swelling beneath Chiesa’s left eye. Chiesa connects with a big left, takes a takedown and drives a knee into the chest. Griffin shakes it off and tags his foe with a right hand, and Chiesa nods at the blow and shoots for a takedown. Griffin hits the ground and scrambles wildly to explode to his feet. Chiesa wrenches him back down to the mat, and he wraps a body triangle around the waist and smacks Griffin in the back and sides of the head until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Round 2
Chiesa starts off the round fresh as a daisy, springing back and forth and picking his shots from the outside. Griffin’s counters hit nothing but air, and Chiesa punches his way into a takedown that is stonewalled. Griffin darts in with a right hand, and on the way out, Chiesa lands his own punch. Griffin whiffs when Chiesa ducks down on a takedown, and two more failed shots from Chiesa lead to a tie-up against the fence. Griffin wants nothing to do with this, exploding out of the clinch so he can continue stalking Chiesa down. Griffin comes up short on power strikes, with Chiesa escaping out the back door and surprising “Pain” with a head kick. Griffin ties him up and pushes the TUF champ against the wall. Griffin grinds his foe against the fencing, getting a knee in as he imposes his weight. Goddard asks for more activity, and Chiesa is the one who answers, changing levels for a takedown shot. Before it goes anywhere, Griffin twists him around, and he eventually works his way out. Chiesa ducks a left hand to try to take the fight down, and he surprises the older fighter with a sudden flurry of uppercuts and short punches that get Griffin’s attention. Chiesa’s momentum drives him into a clinch, and he wraps his left leg around Griffin’s so he can try to wrench him down. Chiesa partially takes the back while the two remain standing, and he works on Griffin with stay-busy strikes until Griffin turns around. The round ends with a Chiesa knee to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Round 3
Griffin comes out of his corner ready to throw hands, and he marches Chiesa down and tries to cut him off. Chiesa keeps moving, constantly going from side to side. As he swipes out a left hand, he shrugs after landing it. Griffin catches him with a right hand, and Chiesa retaliates and pursues a takedown. Griffin stonewalls him and pushes him aside, and he eats a right hand on the way out. As Griffin loads up, Chiesa trips him out with a single-leg takedown and takes his back. One hook in leads to two, and Chiesa hangs onto the back of “Pain” and fishes for an opening. Chiesa wraps up the rear-naked choke, and Griffin pushes off the fence to get just enough space in the grip to keep himself in the fight.
Chiesa refastens his choke and is primarily using his right arm to get it done, and as Griffin turns to his stomach, he enters the Danger Zone. Chiesa wrenches on the rear-naked choke with his other arm with sheer power and determination, and Griffin has no choice but to tap out before going out.
As Chiesa releases the sub, he walks off to celebrate. His legion of fans in the building start singing him “Happy Birthday,” and he dedicates his victory to recently deceased UFC staff member Derek Thompson.
The Official Result
Michael Chiesa def. Max Griffin R3 1:56 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog, believing Chiesa can use his grappling to neutralize Max Griffin's power. He notes Chiesa's improved fight IQ from coaching and analysis work. However, he acknowledges the fight is tricky and expects it to go the distance. He suggests possibly betting the spread (Chiesa +3.5) when props drop.
Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and submission threat. He notes Griffin's takedown defense issues and close decision losses. He thinks Chiesa can grind out a win, though he acknowledges Chiesa's inconsistency.
Connor picks Chiesa, arguing that Griffin lacks a defined game plan and often wanders out of fights. He notes that Chiesa is aggressive with his reach and clinch work, and that Griffin is not a submission threat, which is important because Chiesa has been submitted in most of his losses. Connor believes that if Chiesa pressures and forces clinches, Griffin will not have an answer.
Daniel picks Chiesa as an underdog, citing Griffin's recent decline and takedown defense issues. He believes Chiesa's grappling and strength will be decisive once he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Griffin's lack of submission threat.
This is a fight between two flaky fighters, but I lean with Griffin's activity as of late. His ability to keep the fight standing and out-strike Chiesa on the feet will allow him to win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Chiesa, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Griffin's struggles with grapplers. He notes Griffin's age and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Chiesa can control the fight and win a decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, though he calls it tricky. He believes Chiesa's grappling will be the difference, as Griffin has historically struggled with grapplers (citing Colby Covington fight). He thinks Griffin lacks the dynamic striking to finish Chiesa early, and trusts Chiesa to grind out a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Griffin, noting that Griffin is a good athlete who has shown he can mimic game plans, as he did against Mike Perry. He points out that Chiesa has been submitted in almost every loss, and while Griffin is not a submission specialist, he might catch Chiesa in a guillotine. Zane also mentions that Griffin has been competitive with tough opponents and that Chiesa's recent losses have been to high-level grapplers.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.
Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.
Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.
Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.
Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age (40) and inability to wrestle. He expects Chiesa to use his size and strength to take Ferguson down and submit him, possibly by arm triangle. He notes Ferguson's training at Knuckleheads Boxing is not improving his game. He predicts a first or second round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 9 of 16 | 56% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 9 of 16 | 56% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-145), Chiesa (+125)
Round 1
It has been over 22 months since “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 15 victor Chiesa (16-6, 11-6 UFC) has graced the cage, due to injuries. In the same span of time, his foe Holland (24-9, 1 NC; 11-6, 1 NC UFC) has fought five times. Both 170ers celebrate 11 UFC wins, but Chiesa joined the UFC in 2012 while Holland picked up his first victory with the promotion in late 2018. This quintessential striker vs. grappler affair will be overseen by referee Marc Goddard, and it opens up as the athletes touch gloves. Holland takes to the center of the cage immediately, and he keeps a low stance perhaps to stave off an early takedown effort. Holland works his way towards his opponent, using his long arm to reach out. He catches Chiesa early with multiple right hands and uppercuts, and Chiesa bounces off the cage wall and defends himself. Holland presses forward, and they clash together chest to chest. Holland hurls Chiesa to the mat on his back with emphasis, and he climbs on top before realizing he would be better suited on the feet. Chiesa tags him with a pair of uppercuts on the way up, and Holland walks him down, unconcerned by the power coming back at him. Holland smiles as Chiesa tries to close the distance, and he fights off a single-leg entry from “Maverick.” Holland defends it and puts his leg down on the floor, and he turns Chiesa around on the fence and starts talking to him. Holland miraculously defends from a body lock takedown, backs off and drills Chiesa with a jump knee. Holland pushes Chiesa back and belts him with a knee and a right hand. Chiesa leans over, and he eats a solid knee right on the chin. Chiesa drops to his knees, and he shoots for a double. Holland sees this coming from a mile away, and he instantly slides one arm beneath the armpit and another around the neck to secure a brabo choke. Holland uses the maneuver to turn Chiesa to his back, and the choke is still locked in tight. Chiesa tries to buck and shift his weight to get out of the submission, but “Trailblazer” is pressed tightly to him and not about to let go. With nowhere left to go, Chiesa taps out, and has now been submitted by these types of chokes three times in his UFC tenure. Holland leaps out of the cage and high-fives anyone that is willing to engage him, including the entire commentary booth as well as Chief Business Officer Hunter Campbell. Holland declares that he plans on relocating back to the middleweight division, but he looked sensational at 170 pounds against a very tough opponent.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Michael Chiesa R1 2:39 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his accurate and powerful striking, and the fact that Chiesa has been away from fighting and focused on commentary. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but thinks Chiesa's takedowns are not elite and that Holland's length and BJJ will be a problem. He has a half-unit bet on Holland at -145.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He argues that Holland's takedown defense issues were at middleweight, and at welterweight he should be more comfortable. He questions Chiesa's activity and focus, and notes Chiesa makes mistakes on the mat, having been submitted four times. He expects Holland to land a big shot or snatch a submission.
Cody picks Chiesa by decision, noting Chiesa's style is kryptonite for Holland if he can get takedowns. He acknowledges Chiesa's layoff and injury concerns but believes at his best he can grind out a decision. He took the prop at +340, which he considered off-market. He is not fully convinced but sees value.
James sees value on Chiesa as a dog, citing his clear grappling advantage over Holland, who struggles with takedown defense. He notes Chiesa will likely shoot multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground. However, he also acknowledges Holland's knockout power and submission threat, making him hesitant to bet heavily.
Chiesa is a talented grappler who can close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Holland still has grappling issues and Chiesa will control him from top position. Holland's takedown defense improvements will be tested but I think Chiesa grinds out a decision. I'm going with Chiesa by decision.
Paul leans Holland, questioning whether Chiesa is still the same fighter after two years off and injuries. He notes Holland's BJJ black belt and improved wrestling with Johnny Hendricks. He thinks Holland can survive takedowns and win on the feet. However, he admits Chiesa's style is a threat and calls it a live betting situation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 71 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 51 of 80 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 7:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 29 of 57 | 50% | 19 of 44 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 |
| Michael Chiesa | 18 of 42 | 42% | 8 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 4 of 14 | 28% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 19 | 52% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 5 of 18 | 27% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 17 of 25 | 68% | 10 of 15 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 9 |
| Michael Chiesa | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
An important welterweight contest is now on deck, as TUF 15 winner Chiesa (18-5, 11-5 UFC) will look to hold the line and keep his spot in the top 10 against undefeated Philadelphia native Brady (14-0, 4-0 UFC). When the dust settles, a new contender at the logjammed 170-pound division could emerge. Referee Herb Dean’s got this one, and the fighters have nothing but respect for one another as they clap hands to start off. Brady leads the dance with a low calf kick, and Chiesa keeps his range as he leans forward with jabs. Both men shadowbox in front of the other, and Brady lets go with a right hand only to get swiped in the eye with a finger. Dean lets him recover and even brings in the doctor, and Brady clears it out enough to continue. They trade punches, with Chiesa keeping himself at a safe firing distance with his hands outstretched. Chiesa grabs Brady’s left hand with his own right, and lunges a left hand to smack Brady in the face. In another exchange, Chiesa’s left hand opens and his finger jabs into Brady’s eye. The swipe of the finger opens a cut on Brady’s face as well, and once more the doctor is invited into the proceedings. Chiesa gets sternly warned by Dean, and after a minute elapses, they get back to it again. Less than 90 seconds into the match, and two fight-impacting fouls have occurred. Brady powers forward, and Chiesa tries to back him off with jabs. Chiesa stays on his bike until he lets loose a body kick, and Brady catches it and tries to take Chiesa down. In the redoubled effort, Brady successfully grounds Chiesa, although “Maverick” jets back up to his feet as they start to have a conversation. They both share a laugh, and then Brady takes him down. Blood from Brady’s nose is leaking all over Chiesa’s back, but he does not notice as he instead looks to take Chiesa’s back. Chiesa powers his way back upright again, and he breaks the grip so that he can free himself and take the center of the cage. Chiesa walks through a body kick to lance Brady with a one-two, and Brady gathers himself to punch up top and kick down low. Chiesa looks to wing a right hand around the guard, and Brady’s glove is up in time. This close round ends as the two welterweights try to measure one another some more.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
They again touch gloves to commence the frame, and Chiesa begins the round with a few jabs. Brady looks to close in on him, and he tries to get past Chiesa’s reaching arms so that he can land flush. Chiesa pays him back for a heavy punch with a combination of his own. Brady comes back with a single strike, and then scores a slapping leg kick. They crash together to land flush on one another, and Chiesa needs to rest and circle away as he appears to have gotten the worse of the exchange. When he stands firm, he nails Brady with a left hand, and then catches an advancing Brady with a clean right hand. Brady runs forward into a single-leg takedown try, and Chiesa uses the wall to keep his footing about him. Chiesa puts a hand on the canvas to push off, and he tilts his shoulders to use his height as an advantage to frame Brady off of him and stop the attempt. Chiesa knees his foe in the chest a few times, but Brady is relentless as he latches on to a takedown and puts Chiesa on his seat. As Chiesa gets to a knee, Brady takes his back and snakes a hook around his waist. Chiesa appears irritated that he let this happen, and Brady gets the other hook in as he follows a twisting Chiesa wherever he travels. Although he cannot set up a choke, Brady secures the body triangle and locks it up tight. Brady sneaks an arm under the chin, but Chiesa sees it coming and stops it from succeeding. From this precarious position, Chiesa explodes out only to get dragged back down. Chiesa groans as he cannot get free before the round ends, upset with himself for getting outgrappled in this fashion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
They hug it out to start off the last round, and Chiesa paws out jab after jab to start things off. The jabs turn into open-handed reaches, and he suddenly jumps in the air to pound his knee in Brady’s chin. Brady grabs him after he lands to turn him into the wall, but he does not hold him there for long. Chiesa is fired up, and he starts laying into Brady with powerful punches. Brady gets rocked and is wobbled after taking a long salvo of punches from “Maverick,” and he saves himself with a desperation takedown. Although the first attempt does not succeed, try, try again he does, and he manages to put Chiesa down. Like the last round, Brady easily circles around to take Chiesa’s back, and he gets the hooks in to secure the controlling posture. Chiesa frantically tries high-risk maneuvers like kicking himself high off the fence to get free, but there is nothing doing. Chiesa again grunts when Brady sets up and tightens the body triangle, wearing his emotions on his sleeve as Brady holds on to him. There is no choke to be found as Chiesa comfortably fights the hands, but the control time is firmly on the side of the unbeaten Pennsylvanian. Chiesa turns to break the body lock, and he succeeds in doing so to stand up. Chiesa hammers Brady with punches, but as soon as he drills Brady in the chest with a knee, Brady grabs it and slows him down. When Brady tries to take him down, Chiesa reverses him and puts Brady on the ground hard. Doing everything he can to finish the fight, Chiesa unleashes a storm of ground-and-pound, furiously pursuing a stoppage while Brady holds on for dear life. The final bell comes before the finish can materialize, and a disappointed Chiesa lets go and limps away when the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Michael Chiesa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Sean Brady, citing his athleticism, power, and 100% takedown defense. He notes Chiesa is one-dimensional and has cardio issues, while Brady is more willing to strike and has clean doubles. He does not bet the moneyline but likes a prop: Michael Chiesa +3.5 rounds (win at least one round) at -150, as he expects Chiesa to win the third round due to Brady's potential fatigue.
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog at +140. He cites Chiesa's experience against top competition and his wrestling advantage. He notes that Sean Brady has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber and that Chiesa has controlled elite fighters like RDA and Neil Magny. He believes the striking is close but gives the wrestling edge to Chiesa, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Brady is coming off an injury.
Cody is picking Brady but with low confidence due to the price tag. He notes that Brady is undefeated but has faced lower-level competition, while Chiesa is a step up. He highlights Brady's well-rounded skills: good striking, BJJ black belt, and excellent top game. He believes Brady can sprawl and out-strike Chiesa, and may even catch a guillotine if Chiesa gets reckless. However, he acknowledges Chiesa's size and durability, and that Chiesa has only lost to top grapplers like Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Vicente Luque.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Sean Brady to submit Michael Chiesa. He argues that Brady is extremely skilled, physically strong, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu with 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He criticizes Chiesa for having only a Plan A and mentally checking out when his grappling fails. Levi believes that if Chiesa gets his takedowns stuffed, he will panic, and Brady will capitalize with a submission.
Lock likes Brady but has concerns about his lack of footage off his back. He thinks Brady's wrestling is strong enough to counteract Chiesa's, and that Brady has a striking advantage with leg kicks. He notes Chiesa has mental lapses and a desk job that might distract him. Lock predicts Brady by decision at +275.
Paul is also picking Brady but is nervous about laying -160. He points out that Chiesa was a favorite just one fight ago against Vicente Luque, and that loss was a first-round submission that doesn't fully reflect the competitiveness. He notes Chiesa's size and ruggedness, but also his low striking output and lack of ground-and-pound. Paul thinks Brady's superior striking and grappling will eventually figure Chiesa out, but he's not confident enough to recommend a bet at the current price.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog over Sean Brady. He argues that Brady has had close fights with Court McGee and Jake Matthews, and lacks KO power. He highlights Chiesa's size, reach advantage, and improvements on the feet. He expects a slow first round, then Chiesa to grind Brady against the cage, take him down, and finish with a rear-naked choke in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is hesitant but leans Chiesa, noting that Chiesa is one-dimensional with wrestling but can dictate where the fight goes. He acknowledges Luque's power and improved wrestling camp with Kami Barzini, but thinks Chiesa's relentless grappling may be too much. He calls it a close fight and says he would avoid betting the moneyline.
Big Brady believes Chiesa's wrestling and top control will be the key. He notes Luque is hittable and has been taken down before, while Chiesa shoots for takedowns immediately and limits opponents' striking opportunities. He thinks Luque is finish-or-bust and will likely lose a decision. He picks Chiesa as a dog by decision.
Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and ability to neutralize Luque's striking. He notes that Luque has struggled against wrestlers in the past and that Chiesa's top control and pressure will be effective. Cody expects a decision win for Chiesa.
Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to finish Michael Chiesa, citing Luque's striking advantage, calf kicks, left hook, and opportunistic submission ability. He believes Chiesa is outgunned on the feet and will have to shoot from distance, which could lead to a guillotine or other finish for Luque. He also notes that Chiesa hasn't been truly tested at 170 and that Luque is a clear step up in competition. He thinks the line should be closer to -160.
Chiesa is a big welterweight with strong wrestling and grappling. Luque is a dangerous striker but has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber. Chiesa should take the fight to the ground and control Luque, avoiding striking exchanges. Luque's BJJ off his back is not elite, and Chiesa can grind out a decision or find a submission. The decision prop at +240 is good value.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a 'dogger pass situation' and taking Chiesa. He notes that Chiesa's wet blanket style may not be pretty but is effective, and that he usually avoids stand-ups by staying busy in half guard. Paul prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Michael Chiesa's poor stand-up and inactivity, and believes Luque's power and takedown defense will be key. He predicts Luque will catch Chiesa coming in for a clinch and finish him with an uppercut-hook combo. He also notes Chiesa's grappling doesn't do enough damage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 93 of 125 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 15:21 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 12 of 50 | 24% | 52 of 96 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 3 of 26 | 11% | 4 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 4 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 22 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 24 of 52 | 46% | 19 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 21 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 50 | 24% | 7 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Neil Magny | 3 of 26 | 11% | 2 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 |
| Neil Magny | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Neil Magny | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Michael Chiesa | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Neil Magny | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Michael Chiesa | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady initially leaned towards Neil Magny but changed his mind after tape study. He believes Michael Chiesa's wrestling and top game will be decisive, noting Magny's 59% takedown defense and that he hasn't faced many wrestlers lately. He praises Chiesa's performances at 170 lbs and predicts he will grind out Magny for a decision win, possibly finding a submission. He says he might bet Chiesa if the line gets wider.
The host believes Neil Magny's cardio, pressure, and fight IQ will be too much for Michael Chiesa in a five-round fight. He notes that Chiesa's best chance is a submission in the first two rounds, but if Magny survives, he will take over. He predicts a late TKO for Magny, possibly in the fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Neil Magny, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and well-roundedness. He believes Chiesa has poor stand-up and will gas out after setting a high pace in the early rounds. He notes Magny's ability to survive submissions (as Sanchez and RDA did against Chiesa) and predicts a fourth-round TKO as Magny takes over in the later rounds.
Court McGee - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 72 of 160 | 45% | 81 of 169 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 39 of 145 | 26% | 51 of 158 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 20 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 72 of 160 | 45% | 47 of 128 | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 132 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 39 of 145 | 26% | 9 of 95 | 16 of 29 | 14 of 21 | 36 of 140 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 10 of 41 | 24% | 2 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 24 of 57 | 42% | 20 of 53 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 17 of 58 | 29% | 4 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 16 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 33 of 58 | 56% | 12 of 34 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 36 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 12 of 46 | 26% | 3 of 29 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.
Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.
The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Tim Means | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Court McGee, believing the fight is 50-50 and McGee's wrestling and pressure can be the difference. He notes Tim Means is a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers unjustified given both fighters are old and worn. He placed a small bet on McGee at +195.
Big Brady is hesitant on this fight, noting that both fighters are veterans and he doesn't trust either. He leans towards Tim Means because he believes Means still has a little left in the tank, while Court McGee hasn't had a finish since 2010 and has been losing to lower-level competition. He expects McGee to attempt takedowns but thinks Means will do better work on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks McGee, citing his home-field advantage in Utah and cardio. He notes Means' tendency to gas and get submitted. He believes McGee can outlast Means and possibly win by submission.
Connor picks Means based on sentiment, acknowledging it's not a sound analysis. He notes that Means is old and has lost speed, but Court McGee is not a powerful striker and Means' craft might be enough. He wants Means to go out on a win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tim Means, citing his slick striking and improved wrestling. He notes that Court McGee has slowed down drastically and was nearly beaten by Alex Morono. Vreeland expects Means to knock out McGee, though he is hesitant to lay heavy chalk on a fighter who has lost four of his last five.
The host believes Tim Means is the better overall fighter and will utilize his clinch with knees and elbows, as well as distance striking with kicks and long-range weapons, to pick apart Court McGee. He expects Means to win on the scorecards, noting that McGee lacks significant knockout power.
Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He thinks McGee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees value at plus 170 and expects a close decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Court McGee over Tim Means, citing McGee's training at altitude in Utah as a key advantage. He notes both fighters are past their prime but believes McGee is less finishable and will employ a boring cage control game, failing takedowns but winning the pressure game. He predicts a decision victory for McGee, as neither fighter is likely to finish early.
Zane also picks Means for sentimental reasons, calling himself a long-time Dirty Bird fan. He acknowledges that Means has lost a step but notes that McGee is not a dangerous striker and Means' experience might carry him. He admits it's not a pick based on sound analysis.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 0 | 60 of 160 | 37% | 78 of 184 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 38 of 141 | 26% | 42 of 149 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 12 of 50 | 24% | 12 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alex Morono | 0 | 18 of 67 | 26% | 20 of 71 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 17 of 63 | 26% | 18 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 60 of 160 | 37% | 14 of 73 | 29 of 55 | 17 of 32 | 52 of 148 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 11 |
| Court McGee | 38 of 141 | 26% | 26 of 118 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 38 of 139 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 22 of 52 | 42% | 3 of 16 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 11 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 12 of 50 | 24% | 8 of 42 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Morono | 20 of 41 | 48% | 7 of 21 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 10 |
| Court McGee | 9 of 28 | 32% | 6 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Morono | 18 of 67 | 26% | 4 of 36 | 8 of 18 | 6 of 13 | 18 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Court McGee | 17 of 63 | 26% | 12 of 51 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 17 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alex Morono because he believes Morono is a step ahead everywhere in this fight and could potentially finish an aging Court McGee. He notes that McGee relied on his work ethic and chin, but at 39, that chin is gone and hard work alone won't get wins. Morono is somewhat unreliable himself, but Angelo thinks he should be good here.
Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He notes that Morono is six years younger, has better striking volume, and good jiu-jitsu. He believes Court McGee's durability is waning after recent knockouts, but doesn't expect a finish. He thinks Morono will be better wherever the fight goes.
Cody agrees, noting McGee's recent knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He thinks Morono's volume and speed will be too much, and that McGee's pressure game won't work against a more technical striker. Cody also mentions Morono's competitive fight with Joaquin Buckley has aged well.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alex Morono to finish Court McGee in the first round. He compares McGee to past veterans Morono has stopped, like Josh Burkman and Tim Means, noting McGee is 40 and slow. Vreeland believes Morono's speed, power, and vicious intent will overwhelm McGee, and even if taken down, Morono can pop back up. He predicts a first-round knockout or submission.
Morono is younger, more durable, and has better striking volume and power. McGee's chin is fading after recent knockouts. Morono's defensive grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing, where he can land damaging combinations. Expect a finish in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Morono, citing McGee's age, declining durability, and recent knockout losses. He notes McGee's wins are over one-dimensional grapplers, while Morono has better footwork, volume, and takedown defense. Paul thinks Morono will outwork McGee and possibly knock him out, as McGee's durability is gone.
The host picks Morono based on output and commitment. He notes Morono looked amazing against Buckley and is better than Ventre. He criticizes McGee's recent losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He predicts neither will get a KO or dominate grappling, so Morono's higher volume will win a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.
Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.
Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.
McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 1 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 1 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Wells | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McGee (-120), Wells (+100)
Round 1
Even though UFC experience and fight mileage both weigh heavily on “The Crusher” McGee (21-10, 10-9 UFC), he will come into this matchup on his first UFC win streak since 2013. The Utah native will clock in only two years the elder of Wells (10-2-1, 2-0 UFC), who surges into this contest on the heels of four finishes in two rounds or less. Referee Herb Dean might have his hands full for this one, as Wells is darting back and forth and does not engage to touch gloves. Instead, Wells shifts laterally back and forth, and McGee reaches out towards him with a jab to the chest. Wells keeps his range and switches stances constantly, lulling McGee into a rhythm. “The Crusher” simply remains calm and lands a heavy leg kick, and he blocks high when Wells crashes towards him with punches. Wells throws himself off-balance when swinging at him, and McGee blocks the blows and splits the guard with a one-two in response. Wells jumps forward to attack, and he pushes out a jab and a right that comes up short.
The Pennsylvania follows up with a left hook that connects right on the button, and McGee is out cold as he falls with his limbs frozen in rigor mortis down to the canvas. The back of McGee’s head collides with the mat, and when it does, Wells follows him down with two brutal punches, which are all that land until Dean can sprint across the cage to break them up and pull Wells off.
There’s something in the water here today in Austin, as Wells practically did the unthinkable by cleanly knocking McGee all the way out.
The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Court McGee R1 1:34 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Court McGee, noting his recent grappling resurgence and dominant wins over Claudio Silva and Ramiz Brahimaj. He believes McGee's takedowns and control will lead to another decision win. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells' danger but thinks McGee's durability and cardio will prevail.
Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He believes McGee is the more experienced fighter with better volume and technical striking, and has shown improved wrestling. He notes Wells has power but lacks volume and cardio, and McGee is extremely durable with only one finish loss. He thinks McGee will be the minute winner on the feet and can handle Wells' grappling.
Cody picks McGee, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He thinks Wells will come out hot but fade, and McGee will grind him down in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests McGee by decision as a prop.
Daniel Levi is confident in Jeremiah Wells as an underdog, citing Wells' athleticism, power, and black belt jiu-jitsu. He notes Court McGee is 37 and has lost five of his last eight, while Wells is younger and hungrier. Levi likes that Wells is getting plus money and believes he will be too fast and strong for McGee. He is considering a bet on Wells.
Paul agrees with McGee, noting Wells' one-dimensional style and McGee's takedown ability. He thinks McGee can survive the early storm and take over. He suggests waiting to see how round one goes before betting.
The MMA Guru picks Jeremiah Wells to win by KO, noting that Court McGee is 37 and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Wells is a freak athlete with explosive power and good grappling, as shown against Blood Diamond. He predicts Wells will catch McGee with a straight right and finish him in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 1 | 54 of 91 | 59% | 76 of 113 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 10:57 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 1 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 42 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Court McGee | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 24 of 40 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Court McGee | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:48 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 54 of 91 | 59% | 30 of 63 | 17 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 46 of 81 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 32 of 62 | 51% | 21 of 51 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 53 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 30 of 51 | 58% | 13 of 31 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 15 of 33 | 45% | 11 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Court McGee | 21 of 37 | 56% | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 14 of 25 | 56% | 9 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Court McGee | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brahimaj, citing his world-class jiu-jitsu and the blueprint from Sean Brady's win over McGee. He notes Brahimaj's tendency to strike instead of grapple but expects him to stick to grappling here. He believes Brahimaj will get takedowns and control McGee to a decision win, as McGee is incredibly tough to finish.
Big Brady highlights that Brahimaj has a 100% submission rate but has never been past the first round, while McGee has never been submitted in 30 fights. He expects Brahimaj to slow down after the first round, allowing McGee's cardio and striking to take over. He picks McGee by decision, noting McGee's takedown defense and ability to get back up.
Cody picks Brahimaj, emphasizing his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He notes McGee's skills are outdated and his takedown defense is poor. He expects Brahimaj to win via decision, possibly with a submission attempt. He mentions McGee's cardio but doubts it will be enough.
Daniel Levi picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing youth and momentum. He notes that Brahimaj is a beast on the mat when fresh, but has cardio and plan B concerns. Levi believes Brahimaj can finish Court McGee, who is 37 and has shown signs of slowing. He argues that McGee's recent wins are over older opponents and that Brahimaj's talent will shine. Levi expects a statement finish from Brahimaj.
The host favors Court McGee due to his veteran savvy, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Brahimaj's all-offense style and suspect cardio, expecting McGee to weather an early storm and take over in later rounds. The host highlights McGee's never-submitted record and ability to get back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for McGee, possibly with a late finish if Brahimaj gasses.
Paul leans toward Brahimaj, noting his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He expects Brahimaj to take McGee down and control him. He questions if Brahimaj can maintain pace for three rounds but thinks his submission threat will be enough. He mentions McGee's durability and cardio as potential factors.
The MMA Guru picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win, noting that he is younger, trains at a good gym, and has more finishing ability. He was initially tempted by Court McGee as an underdog but realized Brahimaj is actually the underdog. He trusts Brahimaj's grappling and striking in the early rounds, and believes his desire to return after the ear injury shows dedication. He acknowledges McGee's pressure and toughness could be a factor in later rounds, but thinks Brahimaj will win the early rounds enough to take a decision or finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 0 | 37 of 74 | 50% | 110 of 157 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 8:03 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 81 of 126 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 29 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 | |
| 2 | Court McGee | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 36 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Court McGee | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 45 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 53 of 68 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee | 37 of 74 | 50% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 14 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 13 |
| Cláudio Silva | 21 of 56 | 37% | 8 of 36 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Court McGee | 10 of 30 | 33% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 6 of 24 | 25% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Court McGee | 16 of 25 | 64% | 13 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 |
| Cláudio Silva | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Court McGee | 11 of 19 | 57% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Cláudio Silva | 12 of 21 | 57% | 5 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks McGee, expecting him to survive Silva's dangerous first round and take over in rounds 2 and 3 due to superior cardio and output. He notes Silva's cardio fades, McGee's never been submitted, and his takedown defense and get-up game are solid. He predicts a 29-28 decision or late finish.
Cody Saftic picks Court McGee, expressing frustration with Cláudio Silva's ugly style but acknowledging Silva's ability to win. He believes McGee's cardio and durability will allow him to survive Silva's early takedowns and win the later rounds. Saftic notes that Silva has poor striking and takedowns, and that McGee is a good gatekeeper who should be able to sprawl and brawl. He suggests a live bet on McGee if Silva wins the first round.
Daniel Levi picks Cláudio Silva, citing Silva's aggression, opportunistic style, and world-class jiu-jitsu. He notes that Court McGee's style hasn't evolved, he's been getting dropped in fights, and he's 3-7 in his last 10. He predicts Silva will take McGee down and submit him, possibly becoming the first man to submit McGee. He also thinks Silva could win a decision if it goes three rounds.
Matt picks Court McGee by decision, but with very low confidence, calling it a stay-away fight. He notes McGee has looked past his prime, while Silva has a poor gas tank. He thinks McGee can nullify Silva's takedowns and pick him apart on the feet as Silva fades. However, he acknowledges Silva's elite jiu-jitsu is a threat, and McGee has never been submitted. He mentions a possible third-round finish for McGee at +1600 but is not confident.
Paul Shaughnessy agrees with McGee, noting that Silva is frustrating to watch and that McGee has better cardio and durability. He believes McGee will win the second and third rounds after surviving Silva's early grappling. He mentions that Silva's wins are often close decisions and that McGee is the logical choice.
The MMA Guru predicts Cláudio Silva will win by split decision in a very close fight. He expects McGee to outstrike Silva on the feet, but Silva will time takedowns and have close submission attempts that sway the rounds in his favor. He compares it to the Bobby Green vs Thiago Moises fight, but with Silva winning this time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 1 | 88 of 230 | 38% | 88 of 230 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 84 of 182 | 46% | 84 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 1 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 43 of 121 | 35% | 43 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 88 of 230 | 38% | 50 of 173 | 17 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 87 of 228 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Court McGee | 84 of 182 | 46% | 9 of 73 | 28 of 51 | 47 of 58 | 84 of 182 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 15 of 38 | 39% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 31 of 63 | 49% | 3 of 22 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 24 | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 26 of 56 | 46% | 3 of 19 | 6 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 43 of 121 | 35% | 28 of 100 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 42 of 119 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Court McGee | 27 of 63 | 42% | 3 of 32 | 11 of 17 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.
Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.
The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.
The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.
Expert Picks (4)
Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.
Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.
The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.
Comments (1)
Chiesa the analyst didnt push for a high tempo against a dog, will be beating feck all if any in the future. Took the easiest path to victory
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!