Career Averages - Raul Rosas Jr.
Career Averages - Terrence Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr.
Terrence Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr. - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 47 of 75 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 10:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 12 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:07 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 18 of 23 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 10 of 31 | 32% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 8 of 33 | 24% | 5 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo highlights that Rob Font is a technical striker with no takedown defense, while Raul Rosas is a relentless grappler with fantastic control. He expects Rosas to wrestle and get as many takedowns as he wants, as long as he doesn't try to box with Font. He calls it a Raul showcase.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Rob Font. He highlights Font's poor takedown defense (43%) and tendency to be controlled on the ground, as seen in the Cory Sandhagen fight. Rosas Jr. has improved cardio and should be able to take Font down and hold him there. Brady expects a decision win for Rosas Jr., as Font has good defensive grappling but won't take risks to get up.
Cody leans toward Rosas Jr., citing Font's poor takedown defense and Rosas's youth and improvement. He notes Font's age and slowing down, and expects Rosas to rack up control time and win a decision. He mentions the Chiawei effect as a factor.
Connor picks Rosas, citing Font's poor takedown defense (43% career) and Rosas's relentless wrestling. He notes that Font got taken down seven times by John Matsumoto and still won, but Sandhagen's disciplined wrestling led to a loss. Connor believes Rosas's commitment to wrestling will be enough, despite Rosas's underdeveloped striking and youth. He acknowledges Font's toughness but sees a clear path for Rosas.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing Rob Font's poor takedown defense and getup game, especially as he fatigues. He believes Rosas has matured since his loss to Cristian Rodriguez and will submit Font. Vreeland acknowledges Font's experience but thinks Rosas's grappling will be the difference.
The host argues that Raul Rosas Jr. is a good bet despite being a favorite because of the extreme age gap (18 years younger), Font's poor takedown defense (42% takedown offense, gave up takedowns to Matsumoto, Figueiredo, Sandhagen), and Font's reliance on volume striking rather than power. He believes Rosas Jr. will stick to Font like glue, outgrapple him, and win two out of three rounds. He notes that Font's windows to strike will be slim due to constant takedown threats.
James picks Rob Font as an underdog, believing Font is the much better striker who will win the minutes on the feet. He acknowledges Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat but questions whether Rosas can hold Font down for extended periods, citing Font's ability to get back up in recent fights. James also notes that Rosas has never fought at this level and has been reversed in previous fights, making Font the value side. However, he admits Font's chin is a concern and that Rosas could hurt him.
Rosas Jr. is persistent with his grappling and will eventually take Font down and control him. Font has been susceptible to wrestlers. Rosas should win a decision, but the line is too high; only play if it drops to -150.
Paul picks Rosas Jr. but with hesitation, noting his takedown ability but concerns about gassing. He thinks Rosas will get early takedowns and control, but Font's get-up game is good. He suggests betting live after seeing if Font can get back up.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing his relentless grappling and Font's struggles against grapplers (e.g., Sandhagen). He believes Rosas will take Font down and control him, winning by decision. He mentions the New England Cartel curse.
Zane picks Font, noting that Font has been taken down many times but still wins fights. He points out that Rosas's game is limited and that Font's experience and ability to do damage on the feet will be key. Zane acknowledges the risk from Rosas's speed and confidence, but believes Font's toughness and veteran savvy will carry him. He compares it to Font's win over Matsumoto.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 26 of 46 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 9:38 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 39 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 20 of 39 | 51% | 12 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Vince Morales | 17 of 31 | 54% | 15 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 11 of 18 | 61% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Vince Morales | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Vince Morales | 11 of 17 | 64% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vince Morales | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas Jr. (-375), Morales (+295)
Round 1
As he will likely encounter while literally growing up with the UFC, Rosas Jr. (10-1, 4-1 UFC) faces a foe tonight 14 years his senior. The promotion teed up Morales (16-9, 3-7 UFC), a fighter who has only won three times in 10 UFC appearances thus far, to serve as fodder for the youngster. The best-laid plans of mice and matchmakers often go awry, and there is no such thing as a “sure thing” in this chaotic sport of ours. The bantamweight come together under the watchful eye of referee Mike Beltran and do not touch gloves. Morales takes to the enter of the cage and paws out a jab, and he is met with a front kick to the body and a shin aimed at his chin. Rosas kicks his front leg a couple times, and he shoots for a takedown that Morales easily shucks out of the way. Rosas sprints forward to put two punches on “Vandetta,” and he chains a few more punches together before lifting Morales up in the air and slamming him down in the middle of the Octagon. Rosas lands in side control, not concerned about a feeble guillotine set up by Morales and suddenly searching for a submission. Morales reacts well enough to drag Rosas back to his guard for a second, and Rosas leaps over to the side again. Morales fights with his legs to stifle a mount attempt, and he wraps up Rosas neck with his arms and finds himself in Von Preux choke danger. Morales sees this setting up and releases his own grip to not fall in the trap. Rosas keeps moving, and he allows Morales to get to his knees so he can take the back. Rosas sneaks in a hook and pulls Morales to his side, with Morales intent on turning him about. Rosas forces Morales to turn, not getting his other hook in, and he keeps on the back while continuously threatening. Morales sits up and looks to twist again, and Rosas hooks one leg around him to keep maintaining his position. Morales breaks out of it and pursues a single, and Rosas keeps his body weight down and slams his fist on Morales’ ribs. Morales turns Rosas over and holds his shoulder down on Rosas’ neck, looking for open strikes until Rosas turns to his knees. Morales pursues a necktie submission, gripping it and leaning back to complete it, but time expires before he gets it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 2
Morales comes out of his corner jabbing, and Rosas has his distance-keeping front kick outstretched. Rosas jabs him back, and he walks into a right hand and pays it no mind. Morales loops a right hand around the guard, and he is answered by a low kick. Rosas comes up short with a step-in knee and a punch, while Morales prods him with his jab. Rosas wraps his foot around the shin of his foe, and he gets his head snapped back with a fierce right hand. Rosas backs off, and Morales slings a head kick at him and starts to defend against a takedown he is knows is coming. Still, the youngster presses Morales from one side of the cage to the other, resting his weight on the veteran and looking for a body lock and a trip when the single or double does not materialize. A subsequent effort, a single-leg takedown, allows Rosas to take his man down. Rosas hunts for a back take, sliding a hook in from behind but the second is fought by Morales. Rosas re-settles himself to hang on from a shoulder, and the two keep scrambling until Rosas laces his legs around Morales’ left thigh. Morales rolls his eyes as he is getting controlled without being able to fight back, as Rosas follows his moves and threatens to loop his arm around the chin. Morales defends with two hands on one wrist, and he posts off to get to his feet all while Rosas is still imposing his weight on his back. Morales shimmies and shakes to wrench the youngster off of him, only to get dragged down and put on his back. Morales wags his finger at the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 3
Morales is even more fired up to get to the last round, and he runs at the 20-year-old flailing his fists. Rosas keeps his back to the cage, strafing to the side and into a head kick. Rosas shoots, and Morales sets up a Peruvian necktie and tries to hit it. When that first one does not come together, Morales locks up an anaconda choke and transitions it to a brabo choke while on his back. Without any legs in play, hooked around Rosas’ back or otherwise presenting additional pressure, Rosas is able to stay composed and slowly work his way out of it. Rosas unleashes a powerful elbow when reclaiming top position, and Morales tries to roll out of the predicament and gives his back up. Rosas does not hang onto the back this time and instead lets Morales roll through. Morales hooks the leg to set up some leglock, and Rosas steps over it and puts Morales back on his side. When Morales gets up, Rosas bullies him right back to his seat. Morales is irritated that he cannot get Rosas off of him, and he stands up and uses the fence to his side to scrape Rosas off. Rosas shoots for a single, and Morales attempts a desperation necktie. Rosas turns through it, and Morales fastens a brabo choke again but does not have a lot of time left. Rosas signals a thumbs-up as the choke is pressed on his windpipe, and the match comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
The Official Result
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
James picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win but is hesitant due to the minus 400 price tag and elevation concerns. He notes Rosas has cardio issues that could be exacerbated at elevation, while Morales has good cardio and is tough to finish. James thinks Rosas will likely win via submission or decision but cannot recommend betting him at such short odds. He suggests that if Rosas doesn't finish early, he could fade in later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 41 of 94 | 43% | 98 of 158 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 80 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 41 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 17 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 40 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 45 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 41 of 94 | 43% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 20 | 13 of 15 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 24 |
| Aoriqileng | 22 of 54 | 40% | 12 of 43 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Aoriqileng | 4 of 10 | 40% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 17 of 49 | 34% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 17 of 42 | 40% | 11 of 36 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 13 of 23 | 56% | 7 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 |
| Aoriqileng | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas Jr. (-850), Aori (+575)
Round 1
It’s time for something new. It’s time for something different. Out of the UFC Apex, and not even posted up in its standard haunt of the T-Mobile Arena, instead the UFC is putting on a night of combat inside of the vaulted Sphere in Las Vegas. While some have seen snippets of previews, the occasional Twitter leak and some other sneak peeks, this will be fresh to fans and media alike. We don’t quite know what to expect, and that makes it exciting. This 10-fight showcase that celebrates Mexican fighters on Mexican Independence Day—along with a spangly-haired kid from Montana against a robot from Georgia, not to mention Saudi Arabia thrown in for good measure—and as a result, Mexican combatants will be the focus and betting favorites almost every step of the way. The matchup of the evening will also serve as the one with the widest betting lines, as grappling wunderkind Rosas Jr. (9-1, 3-1 UFC) comes in with odds in his favor around -1000 against well-traveled China export Aori (25-11, 1 NC; 3-3, 1 NC UFC). Although referee Chris Tognoni signed up to officiate this event like any other, even he is surprised at the spectacle unfolding around them. The bantamweights touch gloves, and it’s time for something new. Rosas lashes out first with a low kick, and he is warned for outstretched fingers. He switches stances and kick Aori two more times on the lead leg. Rosas goes to the body with a kick, and chants for “chiwiwis” rain down in support of Rosas. Aori springs into action with a lunging combination, and the Mexican youngster bats them out of the way and circles off. Rosas whiffs on a pair of looping shots, and he gets caught with a right hand and just misses on the counter. Rosas attacks the front leg a few more times, and when he stands still, Aori potshots him with a solid right hand. Rosas jumps back and forth between stances, and he is once more warned for his fingers pointing out. Rosas charges in from a distance to go after a takedown, and after they bounce off the wall, he succeeds in dragging the Chinese competitor down. Rosas opens up with several loud body shots while Aori looks for sweeps and butterfly hooks, but he elects instead to pass to half guard. Rosas climbs over to side control, and he moves to mount in a hurry. Aori times the guard pass to buck and sit up, but this only allows Rosas to circle around him and take his back. Aori is warned for pulling his toes in the cage as additional chants for “chiwiwis” loudly call for Rosas. Rosas grips a brief face crank, but he bails on it when the grip is not tight. As Aori turns to his side, Rosas punches him in the side of the head a few times. With seconds to spare, Rosas slides over to the mount position to rain down elbows, and the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 2
The bantamweights touch ‘em up to get going, and Rosas opens up with a kick or two before Aori surges at him with punches outstretched. Aori reaches his foe with a right hand amidst an exchange, and he hops away when Aori jumps at him with a knee. Rosas paws with a few more low kicks, and one slides up and bumps into the cup apparently. Aori waves it off, and he winds up with a massive right hand that brushes past the hair of the youngster. Rosas shoots for a takedown, and Aori tosses it aside. Aori jabs his way in but misses on the overhand right, and he stops another takedown effort coming his way. Rosas peppers the lead leg with kicks, keeping to the outer edge to not allow Aori to reach him with anything of significance. When Aori does connect, Rosas fires back angrily. The warning comes for Rosas again for pointing his fingers out, and Aori loads up on an overhand right to smash the kid in the chops. Aori chambers and fires another big overhand right, and Rosas wears it well and keeps moving and switching stances. Aori goes for a right hand to the body, and he tries for two more wide hooks. Rosas walks towards him and wants to brawl, and Aori happily obliges him. Aori tags him during an exchange, and he fights off a takedown up close. Aori stalks after the younger fighter and flicks out a jab or two, and he goes to the body with a right hand. Aori parries a kick and gives a loud one back to the body, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Round 3
The fighters come together to hug it out before the last round commences, with Rosas showing a little trickle of blood on his lip. When they disengage, Aori is quick to pick up where he left off, walking the 19-year-old down and kicking him in the ribs. To fire up Rosas, the crowd chants “chiwiwis” again, and this results in him charging in for a tackling takedown that puts Aori to his seat. Aori wall-walks, and Rosas quickly mat returns him with a body lock, landing in side control. Aori scrambles, and in the process, he gives up his back when turning to his knees. Rosas reaches way back to slam down knees to the shoulder, landing several until Aori sells out by somersaulting. This forces “Mongolian Murderer” to his back once more, with Rosas comfortably on top of him in the guard. Rosas stays busy on top with ground-and-pound, more of the frustrating variety than with anything individually damaging. Tognoni asks for more activity from on top, and Rosas sits up to fling one right hand down. It’s “chiwiwis” again for the audience, but Rosas does not take any additional chances or let anything special fly. At 19 years of age, the young Rosas has not let the surroundings or his hype get the better of him, as he smothers the power puncher and keeps him flat on his back. Rosas drops down an elbow and a left hand, and Aori responds with an elbow from his back. As seconds tick off the clock, both fighters swing at one another, and the less-than-thrilling match comes to an end. Barring something unusual, Mexico is on the board, and the audience may hope that things spice up a bit.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas (29-28 Rosas)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosas (30-27 Rosas)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas (29-28 Rosas)
The Official Result
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Qileng Aori via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr. but with caution. He notes Rosas is young (19), a relentless grappler with 12 takedowns in 5 fights, but his striking is still raw and he can be reckless. Angelo points out that Rosas lost the first round in his last fight and gassed out badly two fights ago against CR Rod. He warns against overexposure on the -700 line, suggesting Rosas could still make mistakes. The pick is Rosas, but Angelo advises betting conservatively.
Big Brady sees this as a clear mismatch, with Raul Rosas Jr. being a massive favorite. He notes Aoriqileng's poor takedown defense and history of submissions, predicting Rosas will get a takedown and finish quickly. He expects a first-round submission win.
Daniel picks Raul Rosas Jr., noting his size, grappling, and relentless pressure. He expects Rosas to take down Qileng and submit him, possibly in the second round. He mentions Qileng's counter right hand but believes Rosas' grappling will be too much.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Rosas Jr. is a phenom who will get the fight to the ground as he always does. Aoriqileng has shown decent grappling defense but will struggle with Rosas Jr.'s aggression. Expects Rosas Jr. to get him out in the first round, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes that Aoriqileng has lost to fighters he wouldn't describe as extremely talented, and that Rosas Jr. is a rising prospect with good grappling and pace. He trusts Rosas Jr. to get the grappling going early and secure a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 25 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 5:49 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 64 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:40 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 50 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ricky Turcios | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ricky Turcios | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., noting his relentless wrestling and takedowns. He acknowledges that Ricky Turcios has a wild style and good scrambles, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns early and often, and while Turcios might survive, Rosas should win a decision or get a submission. He is confident in Rosas.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by decision. He notes that the fight is now in Louisville instead of Mexico City, removing elevation concerns. He highlights Turcios's zero takedown defense, having been taken down 13 times in his last two fights. He expects Rosas to chain wrestle and win a dominant decision, possibly dropping the third round if he slows down.
Cody picks Rosas Jr. based on the stylistic matchup, noting Turcios' poor takedown defense and Rosas' strength and wrestling. He acknowledges Rosas' cardio issues but believes Turcios is not durable enough to survive the early rounds. Cody also likes that the fight was postponed, giving Rosas more time to prepare and make weight. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and potentially submit Turcios.
Daniel leans towards Rosas due to his physicality and early dominance, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and the possibility of Rosas gassing late. He notes Rosas' style requires high energy, similar to Aljamain Sterling, and that Turcios could take over if he makes Rosas work. He picks Rosas but wouldn't be surprised by a late fade.
Jacob picks Raul Rosas Jr., calling it a simple matchup: a relentless wrestler against a guy who can't defend takedowns. He notes that Turcios has empty pressure and isn't dangerous. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns and control the fight, and even if he gasses, he can still win. He is confident Rosas gets it done easily.
Rosas Jr. is a young grappler with strong scrambling and control, while Turcios is unorthodox and hard to submit. The fight will likely be a grappling-heavy scramble, with Rosas Jr. getting more control time and winning a decision. However, Turcios' experience and weird style make it tough to trust Rosas at -220. Over 2.5 rounds is a better play.
Paul picks Rosas Jr., noting that Turcios is a terrible stylistic matchup for Rosas due to his poor takedown defense and lack of finishing ability. He believes Rosas will take him down early and often, and while Rosas has cardio issues, Turcios is not good enough to capitalize. Paul expects Rosas to win by submission or decision.
The Guru picks Rosas Jr. because Turcios has looked embarrassing in recent fights, especially against Kevin Natividad and Aiemann Zahabi, where he didn't want to engage. He says Rosas will put him away just by wanting to win. He notes Turcios has good takedown defense but Rosas is relentless and will find a way to jump to the back. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., expecting him to be more composed after his first loss. He believes Rosas's relentless grappling will overwhelm Terrence Mitchell, who can be taken down and controlled. He considers Rosas safe for parlays, possibly with Roman Kopylov.
Big Brady is very confident in Rosas, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Mitchell's low level of competition and that he gets finished early by anyone relevant. He expects Rosas to take Mitchell down quickly and submit him, predicting a second-round submission.
Cody is very confident in Rosas Jr., calling him 'top ticket material'. He details Mitchell's poor resume, including a 30-second KO loss to Kai Kara-France on TUF. Cody believes Rosas will get takedowns easily and finish, likely by submission. He recommends betting Rosas inside the distance and notes the round 1 prop at minus 155 is a good price.
Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr. confidently, noting that Rosas learned a valuable lesson in his loss to Christian Rodriguez. He believes Rosas's grappling will be decisive, as once he takes Mitchell's back, the fight will end quickly. Levi points out that Mitchell is ranked 183rd in the world and that Rosas is being developed properly with a soft matchup. He expects Rosas to get back on track with a dominant performance.
Rosas Jr. is a smothering grappler with nasty chokes and great ground control. Mitchell is an Alaska regional fighter who was finished quickly by Cameron Simon and Kai Kara-France. Rosas should have no problem taking Mitchell down and finishing him in the first round. This is a perfect matchup for Rosas to get back on track after his loss to Christian Rodriguez.
Paul picks Rosas Jr. but notes the minus 800 line offers no value. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and finish early, possibly by submission. He mentions Mitchell's lack of success at higher levels and that he is being brought in as a rebound opponent. Paul suggests betting Rosas inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Terrence Mitchell, predicting a first-round rear-naked choke. He notes Mitchell's lack of strength and that Rosas's strength-based grappling will be effective. He mentions Rosas's training with Sarah Longo and believes the humbling loss to Christian Rodriguez will help him. He sees Mitchell as weak and easily manipulated on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 83 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 4:02 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 3 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 50 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rodriguez | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 29 of 52 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 4 of 7 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Christian Rodriguez | 2 of 15 | 13% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 23 of 40 | 57% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas (-225), Rodriguez (+190)
Round 1
Of the 26 competitors on the lineup, just one missed weight: Rodriguez (8-1, 1-1 UFC), who clocked in a pound heavy for his bantamweight meeting with surging youngster Rosas (7-0, 1-0 UFC). Rosas will be looking for his second UFC win before his 19th birthday, while the relatively elderly Rodriguez at 25 is also hunting for win no. 2 in the promotion. Grappling should be on display for this catchweight affair, one that will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson. Nonsense has left the building, while former President Donald Trump is sitting next to Dana White. The fighters have no interest in touching gloves, and instead want to get right down to business. Rosas sprints at his opponent for a takedown, and Rodriguez easily stops it and gets pushed to the wall. A second try from Rosas trips Rodriguez to the floor for a moment, and he even lifts Rodriguez up in the air, but “CeeRod” keeps himself upright and knees the body. Rosas drops down for a single, and Rodriguez defends it by punching and elbowing Rosas in the face. “El Nino Problema” whips Rodriguez down to the mat, and he moves straight into half guard and shifts to side control. Rosas snatches up a guillotine choke, and Rodriguez times this perfectly to flip over him and gain dominant position. Rosas explodes back to his feet before falling victim to a potential submission, and he pushes Rodriguez up to the wire. Rosas clasps his hands around the waist, and Rodriguez remains upright and has his mouthpiece knocked out by a jump knee from his opponent. Rosas yanks Rodriguez down to the floor, and Rodriguez stands up. Rosas jumps on his back and hooks his legs around the waist for a body triangle, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The forearm is not under the neck and is more of a face crank, but Rodriguez grits it out and fights the hands to stop the choke from succeeding. Rosas resets it and secures the arm on the jaw, and he squeezes with all his might. Rodriguez lowers himself to the floor, and he protects himself by hand-fighting again. Rosas secures the body triangle again, crushing down below the ribs, and Rodriguez attempts to turn over. Rosas looks to switch for an armbar setup, but he bails on it to hang on until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 2
The two fighters meet in the middle, and Rosas instantly starts the round by shooting for a single. Rodriguez bowls him over and pushes the youngster to the mat. Briefly taking side control, Rodriguez cannot keep him down and stands up. He greets Rosas with a knee and an elbow, and Rosas holds on and drops down for a failed single. Rodriguez pushes him off and steps back from a spinning back kick, and he attacks another takedown and manages to take Rodriguez’ back standing. The 18-year-old, who appears to be fading slightly, pulls Rodriguez down to the floor momentarily. Rodriguez climbs back up with the wall behind him, and he looks to grab Rosas’ leg from behind his own. Rosas falls to his back, and he throws his legs up for a potential inverted triangle setup. Rodriguez shrugs it off and moves to north-south position, and he shifts over to half guard and drops down an elbow. Rosas rolls and scrambles wildly, but Rodriguez follows him every step of the way and winds up in side control, elbowing the body. Rosas attempts to push off the wall with his feet, and he rolls to his knees and gives up his back. Rodriguez bullies Rosas down to the floor, and he locks up the body triangle and gains possession of the back. Rosas turns over, and Rodriguez slugs him in the side of the head a few times while maintaining the body lock. Rodriguez sets up a rear-naked choke, and he softens “El Nino Problema” up with his right hand. Rodriguez maintains his leg grip tight as a drum, and he rides out the round on the back.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The final round kicks off, and this time, Rosas does not frantically shoot for takedown. Rodriguez catches him with a right hand, and he times a leaping Rosas with another overhand right. The punches of Rodriguez slightly dislodge the youngster’s mouthpiece, and he bears down on him and slugs him a few more times. Rosas charges for a takedown, and he releases the grip when it fails. Rodriguez stops it and stands up, and he meanders towards his opponent and staves off another entry. Rosas leaps forward with a left hand, and Rodriguez whiffs on a counter. The 18-year-old ends up giving up his back when shooting in for a takedown, and Rodriguez pummels him until throwing Rosas down to the ground and claiming the mount position. The calm Rodriguez flattens his prey out briefly, and he pounds on him with unblocked punches. Rodriguez postures up and slowly, methodically beats on Rosas, who latches onto his left arm with all his might. Rodriguez elbows behind the ear, and he wraps up the body lock and takes the back. Rodriguez plants his elbow on Rosas’ dome, and he considers a choke but elects to keep punching Rosas. Rodriguez threatens with rear-naked choke setups from both arms, and he looks to shift over to mount but instead fastens his grip for a face crank. Rosas twists and turns, but Rodriguez is wise to every move and smacks him around. With 20 seconds to spare, Rodriguez releases his leg grip and stands back up. Rodriguez eats a left hand and nails Rosas with a few left hands of his own. The fight comes to a close, and the undefeated record of the 18-year-old is about to go up in smoke.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Raul Rosas Jr. via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Christian Rodriguez has been taken down 10 times in the UFC, and Raul is a relentless grappler who doesn't let people up. He thinks it's that simple: Raul will take him down and control him. He has a moneyline bet at -185 and expects the line to move further in Raul's favor.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by first-round submission, impressed by his grappling and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down by previous opponents and that Rosas has elite BJJ. He warns about Rodriguez's guillotine but believes Rosas will be wise to it. He predicts an early finish.
Cody picks Rosas, arguing that despite his age, he is rapidly improving and his wrestling should be effective against Rodriguez, who has poor takedown defense. Cody notes that Rodriguez is still developing himself and the gap between an 18-year-old and a 25-year-old isn't huge. He believes Rosas' physical maturity and grappling will carry him, and that the price is fair. He acknowledges Rosas may eventually be humbled but not here.
Connor picks Rosas because Rodriguez takes himself out of position and fights into the clinch, where Rosas excels. Rosas is a great back-taker and crushing positional grappler. Rodriguez showed vulnerability to takedowns against Joshua Weems, and Rosas is a much better grappler. Connor doesn't see anything in Rodriguez's game that suggests he can stay off the ground or win if taken down.
Jacob is also confident in Raul, sharing a story about how Raul started grappling after being out-grappled once, showing his natural talent. He notes that Christian Rodriguez likes to scramble, which will lead to Raul taking his back. He predicts a finish after the first takedown.
Rodriguez is a well-rounded prospect with pinpoint striking and good scrambles. Rosas is a young grappling phenom but his striking is raw and he makes positional mistakes. Rodriguez has the composure to reverse positions and keep the fight standing, where he has a clear advantage. I think Rosas's overzealous grappling will be exploited, and Rodriguez wins by knockout or decision.
Paul picks Rodriguez as a dog but is hesitant. He questions Rosas' striking and notes that if Rodriguez can survive the early rounds and get back to his feet, he has a striking advantage. Paul points out Rodriguez's good scrambling and ability to land shots. He also mentions the Florida crowd might favor exciting striking over grinding wrestling. However, he acknowledges Rosas' wrestling is a threat and that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by second-round submission via face crank. He initially thought decision but changed due to Rodriguez's bad weight cut. He expects Rodriguez to do well early but fade, with Rosas taking over in scrambles and eventually sinking in a choke over the jaw. He describes a detailed grappling sequence leading to the tap.
Zane picks Rosas because Rodriguez's takedown defense is poor, as seen against Weems. Rosas is an aggressive grappler with excellent back-taking and ground control. Zane notes that Rodriguez's record shows submissions, but he doesn't see anything that suggests he can avoid being taken down and controlled by Rosas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Rosas will dominate via wrestling and control, predicting a wet blanket decision. He has a 2-unit moneyline bet on Rosas at -255. However, he expresses concern that Rosas is too young (18) for the UFC, comparing him to Aaron Pico who was pushed too fast. He believes Rosas will outpace Perrin and wrestle him relentlessly.
Big Brady picks the underdog Jay Perrin, citing Perrin's excellent takedown defense, cardio, and toughness. He notes Rosas Jr. has faced no adversity and has poor striking, while Perrin trains with Merab Dvalishvili and has good grappling. He expects Perrin to survive early takedowns and take over in later rounds, winning by decision or late finish.
Cody picks Rosas Jr., citing his submission grappling and cardio. He thinks the UFC is building him up and that Perrin is a favorable matchup. He notes Rosas' relentless pressure and chain wrestling. He expects a submission or inside the distance win, and suggests taking Rosas inside the distance at plus 140.
Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr., believing the UFC matched him against a weak opponent in Jay Perrin. He describes Perrin as average everywhere with a poor attitude, and notes that the UFC offered the fight to other fighters first. Levi likes Rosas's length, awkwardness, grappling ability (back takes, scrambles), and confidence. He expects Rosas to win, possibly by submission, but is not crazy about the -240 price. He suggests waiting for a better line around -200.
Lock is confident in Rosas Jr. from a PredictionStrike perspective, noting that if he fulfills his potential, the current price of $1.26 will look like a steal. He acknowledges the possibility of struggles like other young fighters, but believes Rosas has the best base for MMA with his grappling and jiu-jitsu, and a safe style that minimizes damage. He thinks this is likely the best price you'll ever get on him, and recommends buying in for the long term.
Paul does not make a clear pick, noting Rosas is very young (17) and that Perrin has wrestling credentials. He thinks Perrin could give Rosas trouble and that the fight is not a high priority for betting. He acknowledges Rosas' potential but is not confident either way.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Jay Perrin by close decision. He acknowledges Perrin is a formidable fighter who gave tough fights to Aoriqileng and Mario Bautista, but believes Rosas Jr.'s willingness to grapple will be the difference. He expects Rosas Jr. to secure takedowns and control positions, possibly losing a round but winning 29-28.
Terrence Mitchell - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., expecting him to be more composed after his first loss. He believes Rosas's relentless grappling will overwhelm Terrence Mitchell, who can be taken down and controlled. He considers Rosas safe for parlays, possibly with Roman Kopylov.
Big Brady is very confident in Rosas, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Mitchell's low level of competition and that he gets finished early by anyone relevant. He expects Rosas to take Mitchell down quickly and submit him, predicting a second-round submission.
Cody is very confident in Rosas Jr., calling him 'top ticket material'. He details Mitchell's poor resume, including a 30-second KO loss to Kai Kara-France on TUF. Cody believes Rosas will get takedowns easily and finish, likely by submission. He recommends betting Rosas inside the distance and notes the round 1 prop at minus 155 is a good price.
Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr. confidently, noting that Rosas learned a valuable lesson in his loss to Christian Rodriguez. He believes Rosas's grappling will be decisive, as once he takes Mitchell's back, the fight will end quickly. Levi points out that Mitchell is ranked 183rd in the world and that Rosas is being developed properly with a soft matchup. He expects Rosas to get back on track with a dominant performance.
Rosas Jr. is a smothering grappler with nasty chokes and great ground control. Mitchell is an Alaska regional fighter who was finished quickly by Cameron Simon and Kai Kara-France. Rosas should have no problem taking Mitchell down and finishing him in the first round. This is a perfect matchup for Rosas to get back on track after his loss to Christian Rodriguez.
Paul picks Rosas Jr. but notes the minus 800 line offers no value. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and finish early, possibly by submission. He mentions Mitchell's lack of success at higher levels and that he is being brought in as a rebound opponent. Paul suggests betting Rosas inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Terrence Mitchell, predicting a first-round rear-naked choke. He notes Mitchell's lack of strength and that Rosas's strength-based grappling will be effective. He mentions Rosas's training with Sarah Longo and believes the humbling loss to Christian Rodriguez will help him. He sees Mitchell as weak and easily manipulated on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 1:37 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 1:37 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 18 of 32 | 56% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 24 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 18 of 32 | 56% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 24 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Saaiman but with low confidence, calling him a 'parlay buster'. He notes Saaiman's technical striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but warns that undefeated prospects often struggle against experienced fighters like Mitchell, who can grapple and strike. He thinks the odds (-400) are too high and advises against including Saaiman in parlays.
Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman to win by late first-round finish. He notes that Saaiman is a very good striker with sneaky power and good cardio, but his takedown defense is a concern. He expects Mitchell to have early success with takedowns, but if Mitchell doesn't submit Saaiman in the first round, Saaiman will take over and finish him in the second or third round. He mentions that Mitchell's wins come against low-level competition and that Saaiman is a significant step up.
Cody is confident Saaiman wins, noting Mitchell's competition is from Alaska and he was knocked out quickly by Kai Kara-France. He thinks Saaiman's pressure and brawling style will be too much. He mentions Saaiman's foul issues but expects a finish.
Connor picks Saaiman because Mitchell is a top control specialist from a weak regional scene who got destroyed in his UFC debut. Saaiman is a messy but high-volume fighter who will keep coming and eventually break Mitchell. Mitchell's grappling is raw, and Saaiman's relentless pressure should overwhelm him.
Daniel Levi picks Saaiman, noting that Mitchell comes from a weak regional scene in Alaska and was knocked out quickly by Kai Kara-France on TUF. He praises Saaiman's talent, heart, and improving takedown defense, though he has a tendency to get points deducted for fouls. Levi believes Saaiman is infinitely more talented and battle-tested, and expects him to win, though he is not betting at minus-550.
James sees this as a squash match, with Saaiman levels above Mitchell. He praises Saaiman's pace, pressure, tenacity, and striking ability, noting he throws a lot of strikes and is also a good striker. He predicts Saaiman will get a knockout in round one, easily.
Saaiman is a young, explosive prospect with power and speed, while Mitchell has faced low-level competition and was knocked out quickly in his only UFC stint. Saaiman's physicality and skill gap will be too much; he will find Mitchell's chin and finish by knockout. The under 2.5 rounds is a very confident play.
Paul picks Saaiman, noting Mitchell's record is padded with regional wins. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling won't be enough. He mentions Saaiman's DQ risk but expects a win. He says -550 is relatively safe compared to other big favorites on the card.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman to win by third-round TKO. He dismisses Mitchell's striking, noting his grappling is his best asset, but believes Saaiman's top game and elbows will be too much. He also mentions Mitchell's short notice and Saaiman's ability to scramble and sweep.
Zane picks Saaiman because Mitchell is not UFC caliber, coming from a weak regional scene and getting crushed in his debut. Saaiman is a solid rangey kickboxer who fights hard and has good cardio, and he should overwhelm Mitchell with pressure. Even if Mitchell gets a dominant position, Saaiman's relentless work rate will break him.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., expecting him to be more composed after his first loss. He believes Rosas's relentless grappling will overwhelm Terrence Mitchell, who can be taken down and controlled. He considers Rosas safe for parlays, possibly with Roman Kopylov.
Big Brady is very confident in Rosas, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Mitchell's low level of competition and that he gets finished early by anyone relevant. He expects Rosas to take Mitchell down quickly and submit him, predicting a second-round submission.
Cody is very confident in Rosas Jr., calling him 'top ticket material'. He details Mitchell's poor resume, including a 30-second KO loss to Kai Kara-France on TUF. Cody believes Rosas will get takedowns easily and finish, likely by submission. He recommends betting Rosas inside the distance and notes the round 1 prop at minus 155 is a good price.
Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr. confidently, noting that Rosas learned a valuable lesson in his loss to Christian Rodriguez. He believes Rosas's grappling will be decisive, as once he takes Mitchell's back, the fight will end quickly. Levi points out that Mitchell is ranked 183rd in the world and that Rosas is being developed properly with a soft matchup. He expects Rosas to get back on track with a dominant performance.
Rosas Jr. is a smothering grappler with nasty chokes and great ground control. Mitchell is an Alaska regional fighter who was finished quickly by Cameron Simon and Kai Kara-France. Rosas should have no problem taking Mitchell down and finishing him in the first round. This is a perfect matchup for Rosas to get back on track after his loss to Christian Rodriguez.
Paul picks Rosas Jr. but notes the minus 800 line offers no value. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and finish early, possibly by submission. He mentions Mitchell's lack of success at higher levels and that he is being brought in as a rebound opponent. Paul suggests betting Rosas inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Terrence Mitchell, predicting a first-round rear-naked choke. He notes Mitchell's lack of strength and that Rosas's strength-based grappling will be effective. He mentions Rosas's training with Sarah Longo and believes the humbling loss to Christian Rodriguez will help him. He sees Mitchell as weak and easily manipulated on the ground.
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