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Age 29
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jack Della Maddalena
5.57 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.84 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
0.13 TD Avg
10.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Holland
4.26 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Jack Della Maddalena
Moneyline
BetMGM -105
KO/TKO
BetWay +190
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
Unibet +410
Kevin Holland
Moneyline
BetRivers +110
KO/TKO
Unibet +525
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetMGM +400
Jack Della Maddalena - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
TKO R3 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 41 of 76 53% 53 of 90 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:13
Carlos Prates 3 104 of 193 53% 104 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 25 of 39 64% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 1 36 of 79 45% 36 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Carlos Prates 2 46 of 69 66% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 41 of 76 53% 25 of 52 8 of 15 8 of 9 41 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 104 of 193 53% 79 of 164 11 of 14 14 of 15 89 of 171 1 of 1 14 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 15 of 30 50% 5 of 18 5 of 7 5 of 5 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 3 of 4 6 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 25 of 39 64% 19 of 28 3 of 7 3 of 4 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 36 of 79 45% 27 of 69 5 of 6 4 of 4 35 of 78 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 46 of 69 66% 39 of 61 3 of 4 4 of 4 32 of 48 1 of 1 13 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

Round 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.

Odds mentioned as -110; no bet size.
"JDM is the pick. These odds are crazy. It's like minus 110."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.

Prates by KO, round 3
"Give me Prachazka here. I'll take Prachazka to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.

"I get Jack Matalena because he's slight plus money."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.

"I have a slight lean towards Protest, but like J if JDM wins this fight, I'm not going to be surprised if Protest puts him out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.

"I think Prates is the better striker... in the even money odds range, it's a no-brainer to kind of lean towards him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.

"I lean Carlos as a more of a knockout artist... I think Carlos is going to win the fight and get a title shot next."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.

Knockout win
"I have to side to the pace side. I think his Muay Thai is going to be a little bit more dangerous here. And I think he's more prone to be able to get a finish compared to what Matalena …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.

"Prattis for me, Jack Dela for you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.

TKO in round three or four, body shots
"I'm going to go with Jack Della Maddalena by round three or four TKO over Carlos Prochazka."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 318 41% 155 of 349 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:21
Jack Della Maddalena 0 178 of 342 52% 200 of 364 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jack Della Maddalena 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 63 33% 21 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Della Maddalena 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 32 of 79 40% 32 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 34 of 76 44% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
4 Belal Muhammad 0 31 of 65 47% 35 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 33 of 59 55% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Belal Muhammad 0 27 of 62 43% 46 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:32
Jack Della Maddalena 0 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 318 41% 119 of 297 11 of 18 2 of 3 116 of 295 14 of 21 2 of 2
Jack Della Maddalena 178 of 342 52% 113 of 254 47 of 65 18 of 23 167 of 326 11 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 15 of 40 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 28 of 61 45% 14 of 39 7 of 11 7 of 11 27 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 21 of 63 33% 19 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 30 of 63 47% 16 of 45 10 of 14 4 of 4 29 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 32 of 79 40% 29 of 74 3 of 5 0 of 0 29 of 76 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 34 of 76 44% 20 of 58 10 of 14 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 31 of 65 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 54 5 of 10 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 59 55% 27 of 48 4 of 8 2 of 3 32 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 27 of 62 43% 26 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 53 of 83 63% 36 of 64 16 of 18 1 of 1 45 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)

Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.

"I'm going to trust the process here. I do think Bal wins. Not only is he a smart guy who understands the dangers of striking, but he also carries the wrestling reputation with him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.

"Give me Blow. Give me Balao. Give me Blow to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.

"I think Muhammad's grappling style and high pressure, high pace will be too much for the striker in Matelena to keep up with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.

second round TKO
"I'm going with JDM. I'm going with JDM. That's what I'm doing. The boys are taking this one. JDM's getting it done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
KO (knee and elbows) R3 3:43 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 58 46% 31 of 63 7 of 11 63% 0 0 5:07
Gilbert Burns 1 67 of 123 54% 85 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Gilbert Burns 0 18 of 38 47% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:13
Gilbert Burns 1 28 of 37 75% 35 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 58 46% 16 of 43 8 of 11 3 of 4 23 of 52 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 123 54% 54 of 104 9 of 15 4 of 4 47 of 100 4 of 6 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 35 51% 9 of 23 7 of 9 2 of 3 14 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 48 43% 15 of 36 5 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 28 of 37 75% 26 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 16 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 127 of 356 35% 127 of 356 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 105 of 190 55% 105 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 40 of 111 36% 40 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 41 of 69 59% 41 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 49 of 127 38% 49 of 127 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 38 of 118 32% 38 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 127 of 356 35% 59 of 258 33 of 55 35 of 43 119 of 346 8 of 10 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 105 of 190 55% 46 of 115 36 of 49 23 of 26 94 of 175 11 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 40 of 111 36% 15 of 76 11 of 18 14 of 17 36 of 105 4 of 6 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 41 of 69 59% 19 of 42 14 of 18 8 of 9 34 of 60 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 49 of 127 38% 27 of 97 10 of 16 12 of 14 46 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 34 of 61 55% 10 of 34 14 of 17 10 of 10 33 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 38 of 118 32% 17 of 85 12 of 21 9 of 12 37 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 30 of 60 50% 17 of 39 8 of 14 5 of 7 27 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-148), Holland (+124)

Round 1
Ranked welterweights cross paths in the compelling co-main event, as Della Maddalena (15-2, 5-0 UFC) puts his remarkable 15-fight winning streak on the line in arguably his toughest test to date. The 30-year-old Holland (25-9, 12-6 UFC) boasts 21 finishes among his 25 career victories. Jason Herzog draws the officiating assignment. Della Maddalena lunges forward with jabs and hammers home a leg kick. Holland answers with a leg kick of his own, stays light on his feet and looks to penetrate the Aussie’s defenses with punches down the middle. Della Maddalena attacks the body with hooks and tries to stay close to the Texan, hoping to negate a significant reach advantage. They engage one another at close range in the center of the cage, trading elbows and punches that draw oohs and aahs from the crowd. Holland punctuates a combination with a left hook. Della Maddalena responds with a right hand over the top. Holland stays busy with his kicks, zeroing in on the legs, body and occasionally the head. Della Maddalena scores with a body-head volley in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Holland paws with his jab but lands nothing of significance. Della Maddalena sneaks in a leg kick, closes the distance and connects with a right hand upstairs. Holland answers with front kicks to the body and push kicks to the legs. This has the makings of a nip-tuck affair that could go either way. A short counter right lands for Holland, who rolls with punches as the Aussie tries to return fire. Della Maddalena struggling to generate enough output. Holland stays busy with his hands and feet. He doubles and triples up on his jab. Della Maddalena punctuates a combination with a leg kick. Holland shoots on a takedown and bails on it, with both men throwing elbows on the exit. Holland clips his opponent with a right hook at close range, catches a kick and nearly dumps the Aussie to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
Della Maddalena opens the third round with a clubbing right hand that forces “Trailblazer” to retreat and circle. Holland keeps his composure and threatens with kicks. He leans on his jab and connects with a spinning reverse elbow, but it fails to make much of an impact. Della Maddalena cuts loose with punches, and while he lands a few of them, most miss the mark. The Aussie is the more active participant through the first half of the period. Holland is not hitting the accelerator, even though he needs to. Della Maddalena appears to be blocking a majority of his shots. The crowd boos for some reason. Della Maddalena answers every Holland strike with two, three and four of his own. Holland starting to pick up the pace, but it looks to be a case of too little too late. Della Maddalena delivers a pair of short-range elbows just before the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (30-27 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Kevin Holland—Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.

over 2.5 rounds considered
"I am going to lean Holland it might be recency bias I'm hoping it's not and I just think it's going to come down to I know how tough Holland is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.

second round submission
"I think I'm gonna go with Kevin Holland here with with little to no confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.

"I'm also GNA take Holland but by or beware... I just think the numberers too good on Kevin Holland dog money."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.

bet at plus-100, now minus-145; could hedge on Holland for profit
"I'm gonna ride it out on Jack Dilla and here's why"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.

"give me the underdog shot here on Holland who I think he has more paths to Victory here and I think he has a good enough striking game to compete against Elena make this close... I think it ends up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.

"I bet Kevin Holland and you know me historically Kevin Holland hater... I'll take the bigger opponent with decent enough grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Kevin Holland, stating the odds were wrong to have him as an underdog. He believes Holland won't grapple, which benefits JDM's striking. He envisions Holland backed against the cage using a Philly shell and JDM landing a liver shot for a TKO. He notes Holland's weight cut to welterweight and JDM's power in his hands.

TKO via liver shot, late first or second round
"I'm gonna go with Jack Della madalena over Kevin Holland"
WIN vs Bassil Hafez
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 83 of 137 60% 149 of 212 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Bassil Hafez 0 32 of 124 25% 48 of 141 3 of 20 15% 0 1 6:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 13 of 26 50% 41 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Bassil Hafez 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 31 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:19
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 43 62% 47 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Bassil Hafez 0 16 of 56 28% 29 of 70 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 43 of 68 63% 61 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
Bassil Hafez 0 7 of 40 17% 7 of 40 0 of 9 0% 0 1 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 83 of 137 60% 55 of 104 27 of 32 1 of 1 68 of 119 14 of 17 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 32 of 124 25% 29 of 117 2 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 118 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 13 of 26 50% 9 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 9 of 28 32% 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 43 62% 17 of 31 9 of 11 1 of 1 24 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 16 of 56 28% 15 of 53 1 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 43 of 68 63% 29 of 52 14 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 55 10 of 12 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 7 of 40 17% 6 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bassil Hafez vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-625), Hafez (+440)

Round 1
Dead-set on getting a fight to not waste this training camp, Australia’s Maddalena (14-2, 4-0 UFC) stayed in Las Vegas and draws a late notice debuting opponent in the form of Hafez (8-3-1, 0-0 UFC). The biggest betting favorite in the card, Maddalena aims to improve his win streak to 15 while hunting for his 14th stoppage. On the other side, Philadelphia-trained Hafez has never been finished. This sport is wild and anything can happen, and referee Mark Smith is standing by in case it does. The two rush out of their corners with no interest in a glove touch, and Hafez is a man on a mission. Hafez shoots in for a double, and he puts the Aussie right on his back. Maddalena defends with a guillotine choke, and Hafez steps over properly to stop the choke from being tight while passing guard. Maddalena turns to his knees and returns upright to his feet, and he counter hip tosses Hafez back down. Hafez manages to reverse this when they land on their knees together, and he holds on from the side while keeping his weight on Maddalena. Maddalena leans up against the fence, and he manages to turn about and works the body. Hafez lands an elbow on the break as he backs off, and Hafez sticks his man with a left hand. Hafez slings a kick, and he topples over. The newcomer springs back up, and he backs up against the wall and trades furious leather, even catching Maddalena. Hafez gets popped, and he changes levels to secure a takedown and plant the heavy favorite on his back. Maddalena once more works to his knees and gets vertical, and he marches Hafez down and throws hands. Hafez catches him with a counter, but Maddalena lands the better strikes to force a telegraphed shot from his opponent. Maddalena defends it, and Hafez eventually bails on it instead of expending more energy. Maddalena clips Hafez behind the ear, and he strings a few punches together but eats some powerful blows right back at him. Hafez shoots in for a takedown, lifting Maddalena off his feet and fighting out of the guillotine choke that inevitably comes. Hafez, in half guard, leans down his shoulder with an arm-triangle choke that does not have the leverage he wishes. The round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hafez

Round 2
Looking to make up ground, Maddalena starts out aggressively. Hafez times a takedown early, and Maddalena staves it off and looks to take the back. Both stand up, and Hafez kicks the body as he backs off. Maddalena crowds Hafez and shucks a takedown to the side. Hafez times a spinning back fist when recovering, and Maddalena ignores it so that he can throw punches. Hafez sits down on a left hand, and they proceed to nail one another. Hafez knocks Maddalena back in a wild exchange, and Maddalena is landing too but not flustering Hafez one iota. Maddalena aims a front kick to the body, and he loops a right hand around the guard. Maddalena shuts down a takedown as he backpedals from one side of the cage to the other. Maddalena gets out of the tie-up and starts opening up with his punches, leaning Hafez over and kneeing him in the face. Hafez appears to be running out of steam, as Maddalena works the body several times and opens right and left hands over the top. Hafez takes a knee to the side as he leans over, and he gathers himself to wing hooks that miss the mark. Maddalena stifles a leaping double, and he wrenches his arm around the neck and drops back for a guillotine choke. Hafez welcomes this, as he is not in danger and it allows him to crawl on top and catch his wind. Hafez shifts his weight over to grip down on an arm-triangle choke, and he hops to the side to get a better angle. Maddalena grabs hold of his own foot, and Hafez moves back to half guard. Hafez isolates Maddalena’s left arm for a potential keylock, and he bumps his shoulder into Maddalena’s face. The round ends with Hafez on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena

Round 3
The last round opens, and it could be even on the scorecards. Maddalena wants to keep the judges out of the equation, coming out putting hands on face. Hafez misses with a high kick, whiffs with a superman punch, and absorbs a flush right hand. Maddalena sticks out a few jabs and lobs a left hand to follow, and Hafez rolls with it and drives Maddalena from one side of the cage to the other in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Hafez changes it for a single, and Maddalena pulls his leg out and resets. A cut has opened on the corner of his left eye, and he lets Hafez overswing so he can crack him with a left hand. “The Habibi” shoots for a double when getting tagged, and Maddalena shuts it down and a second try so that he can wobble Hafez with a right hand. Hafez tries to tie him up, and Maddalena pounds on the body. Maddalena gest clinched, and he pushes off so that he can kick Hafez and throw everything and the kitchen sink at the chin of his spent opponent. Hafez tries with all his might to get a takedown, and Maddalena stops it and beats on the body. Maddalena busts Hafez up with body shots, and he holds onto Hafez’ right hand so that he can slug him with his free hand. Hafez shoots in desperately with 100 seconds to go, and Maddalena lets him do this so that he can stop it and jump on his back. Maddalena fishes for a rear-naked choke, and he gets rolled over by the determined Hafez. As they scramble, Maddalena hunts for an armbar, and he elects to stand back up while Hafez hold on to head lock. Maddalena gets pushed back to the cage wall with a double, and Hafez grabs the fence to hold him there. Maddalena lowers his man down to the floor, and hangs on in this top position to end the fight. What a wild battle, easily the best fight on the card thus far. No matter the result, Hafez gave an incredible account of himself on short notice against a top contender. This is also a tough look for the ranked Maddalena, who might not even get his hand raised depending on the score of the second round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Bassil Hafez via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting that while Hafez is a short-notice opponent with good wrestling and power, his cardio is poor and he gets hit a lot. He expects Della Maddalena to be the much better striker and to catch Hafez late in the first round. He acknowledges Hafez could have early success but doesn't think he can maintain the pace. He would not lay -550.

Late first round knockout; would not lay -550
"give me Jack Della late first round knockout this fight should be an absolute Banger there's a reason they move this to the co-main"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Della Maddalena, citing his combination punching, volume, and cardio. He thinks Della Maddalena runs circles around Hafez and has solid striking and grappling. He acknowledges the risk of a short-notice opponent but believes Della Maddalena is a future contender. He suggests a live bet on Hafez after the first round if you want to go the other way.

live bet on Hafez after first round
"I gotta back him here the same way I was gonna back him last week the same way I would back him against most of the guys of the division let alone a guy making his debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James mentions that Jack Della Maddalena has been added to the card but says he doesn't know anything about his opponent Bassil Hafez. He briefly notes Hafez's record and a draw with Jeremiah Wells but does not offer a pick or analysis.

"I don't know anything about this guy Liam"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Hafez as an underdog, citing his grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Hafez has never been knocked out and has good timing on counters. He thinks Hafez can mix in takedowns and make it closer than the line suggests. He acknowledges Della Maddalena is the better striker but sees value in the dog shot. He will wait for weigh-ins due to short notice.

"I'll pick a fez on the program which is crazy but... I don't hate the madalena fade uh as a as a concept here I don't think it's too too crazy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez, praising JDM's superior footwork, striking technique, and lack of telegraphing. He criticizes Hafez's split decision win over Anthony Ivy and notes he was tagged by Evan Cutts' jab. He predicts JDM wins by KO late in the first round.

KO late in the first round
"I've got to go with JDM getting his jab going early and eventually seeking the kill at the end of the first round where I think he's gonna get a KO win"
WIN vs Randy Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)

Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

"Jack's gonna be the pick he's probably a safe pick I just hope he fights his fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think he does knock him out at some point in this fight he's gonna be jacked elementalina I'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

"I really like Jack Della and keep in mind I bet against him on his contended series debut... I was so unbelievably impressed with what I saw"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

"I think Jack will close that distance without too much issue get off his strikes and eventually find that knockout and put Randy Brown out probably within the first 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

"I think Jack Della is a rightful favorite in this spot uh I don't really play minus 300s and these types of positions"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

first round TKO; odds comment: should be -180, not -250
"I gotta go with him winning this one and finishing Randy Brown by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
WIN vs Danny Roberts
TKO (punches) R1 3:24 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-490), Roberts (+330)

Round 1
The fists are sure to fly in this welterweight affair. Winner of 12 straight fights, with 11 going down inside the distance, Maddalena (12-2, 2-0 UFC) is keen on rising up the rankings fast. His next test comes in the form of British brawler Roberts (18-6, 7-5 UFC), who will almost certainly meet him in the middle. For as long as this match lasts, referee Mart Smith will be here for it. Like most of the fights thus far, there is no glove touch to initiate the proceedings. Maddalena measures himself, and he works his way in to close the distance and smack Roberts in the face with a right hand. Roberts tries to back him off with kicks, but Maddalena is on him with a fire and a fury. Maddalena rips the body in the midst of a lengthy combination, but Roberts has the wherewithal to dodge a high kick. As he dips down, he eats a knee on the chin, and his knees wobble but he keeps his bearings. As Roberts escapes, Maddalena gives chase and slams his fists into the face of his adversary. The Brit topples to the mat in big trouble, and Maddalena climbs down in hopes of finishing the job. Roberts protects himself from further harm and fights back to his feet. Maddalena is there to meet him with punches and a high kick, but the latter gets blocked. The Aussie lines up a knee and a right hook, and Roberts is taking a pounding but still in the fight. Roberts swings with a few looping shots before charging in from across the cage for a double, and Maddalena defends it with the wall to his back. Roberts checks a kick, and he unloads a combination of brutalizing blows.
Roberts backs up to the wall, and Maddalena swarms him with a long salvo that breaks Roberts with a left to the liver. Roberts’ legs give way beneath him, and Maddalena only needs a few pulverizing punches until Smith has seen enough and calls it.
This stellar performance for the man that has now won 13 fights in a row makes him absolutely one to watch in the welterweight division, and he calls for a fight at UFC 284 against anyone who will take it in his home city of Perth, Australia, in February.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Danny Roberts R1 3:24 via TKO (Punches)
Kevin Holland - Fight History
SCHED vs Jacobe Smith
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
WIN vs Randy Brown
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Mike Malott
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 52 of 137 37% 76 of 162 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 49 of 95 51% 50 of 99 1 of 4 25% 1 1 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 9 of 31 29% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:30
2 Kevin Holland 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 36 55% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 52 of 137 37% 23 of 96 9 of 13 20 of 28 49 of 127 3 of 9 0 of 1
Mike Malott 49 of 95 51% 35 of 73 10 of 15 4 of 7 44 of 88 1 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 9 of 31 29% 3 of 22 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 26 1 of 4 0 of 1
Mike Malott 12 of 29 41% 8 of 20 1 of 3 3 of 6 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 23 of 70 32% 12 of 55 3 of 4 8 of 11 22 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 26 of 42 61% 17 of 32 8 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 20 of 36 55% 8 of 19 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 11 of 24 45% 10 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 18 0 of 2 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-115); Holland (+100)

Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of what should be an all-action welterweight affair that could have a little something for everybody. The fan-favorite Holland (28-14, 1 NC; 15-11, 1 NC UFC) will have to be the villain tonight as he goes into hostile territory to take on the last Canadian-born fighter on the night in Malott (12-2-1, 5-1 UFC). The two will hunt for bonus cash—and there is steep competition tonight—while regionally unpopular referee Dan Miragliotta watches on. Holland tries fairly hard to get a glove touch, but the Canadian wants nothing to do with it.
Holland puts his hand down and his foot up, to start kicking Malott in the lead leg. Malott is struggling to get in on the longer Holland, so Holland can pepper his front leg on either side without worrying about something coming back. When Malott responds with his own leg kick, Holland hops and swats out a left hand. The two appear to clash heads when coming at one another, and Malott unloads with a short combination before Holland can reach him. Malott fires off a body kick, and Holland knocks him off his feet with a fierce right hand. Holland considers slamming down high-amplitude hammerfists, and he leaps on top and delivers some damage. Holland stands back up and starts punching the Canadian in the thigh. Malott hits a sneaky sweep to put Holland on his seat.
Holland fights his way back up, and when Malott tries for a mat return, Holland bends like a reed in the wind and rolls all the way through the takedown attempt to end up on top. The welterweights scramble back to their feet, and clashing kicks leads to Malott inadvertently kicking Holland in the groin. Miragliotta calls time, and Holland laughs it off and is good to go within 20 seconds. They resume, and Holland appears fine, as he reaches Malott and knocks him back with a clean left hand. “Trailblazer” leaps at his man with a right hand, and he keeps his balance when Malott wraps him up to drag him down. When they tie up, Malott drills him in the groin with a knee, and Holland is not so jovial about it as he collapses to his knees.
Miragliotta tells the replay officials that he could hear the impact of the second groin strike, and he tells Malott that he knows that it was an accident but reminds him that it was two infractions already and the second appears to have clearly compromised the Texan. Holland gets to his knees but is still clutching his groin, and he reaches in to try to adjust himself and nearly exposes himself on camera. The replay officials appear to be confused, even though it is clear on the video that there was contact on the cup. Holland tries to stand after two-and-a-half minutes, and he is frustrated that the crowd is booing him and pulls himself up to his feet all while shaking his head repeatedly. Miragliotta tells Holland to take as much time as he needs, which is a smidge over a minute remaining. Miragliotta gives Malott a stern warning for the second groin shot, with no point deduction as commentator Daniel Cormier laments there is no consistency in regards to officiating these days with a fighter earlier losing a point from the first foul. Holland tries as hard as he can to shake off the injury, and he tells Miragliotta he is good to go 15 seconds later than stoppage time.
He is still in serious pain, and he takes more time to tap gloves with Malott and backpedals. Holland still adjusts his cup while dodging swings aimed at his head, and Malott allows him to recover even longer before going at him with a right hand and a head kick that are out of range. Holland gets up close to deliver an uppercut, and he bounces back in pain. Holland walks off before time elapses, and Malott throws his hands in the air out of frustration. The round ends with Holland suffering greatly, and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen between rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Miragliotta calls in the doctor between rounds to check on Holland, who has not yet recovered. The doctor tells Holland that he will have to stop the fight if Holland cannot keep going, and again confusion and chaos is about as they are trying to ask him if he is able to continue. Holland doesn’t say yes or no, and instead grimaces in pain and adjusts himself. As he waits, eventually someone signals that he can keep going and that he cannot keep taking more time. The minute break may have been doubled based on that. Holland flashes his jab to keep his range and not let the Canadian to get him as he still tries to bounce around and relieve the pressure. Malott tosses out a half-hearted front kick, and Holland responds with a heavier one. Malott opens up with a flurry of fists, and Holland shoulder rolls them and takes a body kick. He keeps being his jab, and wings a clubbing right that is easily blocked, unable to put much power behind his punches. He ducks a takedown attempt and scoops a left around the guard to surprise his opponent. Holland swats out with lefts, and Malott tags him with a right hand. Malott’s front kick reaches the target of the jaw, and the replies from “Trailblazer” are a front kick and one to the calf.
The Texan narrowly avoids a left hand and pitches out a side kick, and they crack one another with simultaneous right hands. Holland slips back, and a front kick brushes the top of Malott’s shorts. Holland takes a heavy left hand and gathers his thoughts, sticking Malott with a low kick and a front kick. Holland sits down on a crisp right hand, and Malott walks through it. Holland adjusts his athletic support that is still bothering him, and a clinch leads to nowhere so they split up. Malott walks Holland down and decks him with several punches and a knee, and Holland rebounds off the fencing and fires back with a right hand to keep Malott honest. Holland tries for a one-two, and he is intercepted on the way out. Holland bloodies the Canadian’s nose with a jab and an uppercut that follows, and Malott tries to drive him back with a front kick but is elbowed for his handiwork. The round ends with Malott’s nose positively gushing blood.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Holland is still messed up from the groin shots, and tells Malott to keep things clean. They get down to it, with scores possibly two up for Malott or all tied up. Malott jabs the body with his toes outstretched, and Holland chips at his front leg a few times before darting him behind two left hands. Malott counters him up top, and lets Holland throw a kick to go for a big left hand. Holland re-opens Malott’s nose with jabs, and Malott takes a deep breath and blitzes forward. Holland keeps himself largely clear of danger, although the Canadian catches him with a few strikes. Holland’s own offense bounds off the guard, other than a stomping kick to the knee that briefly hyperextends it. Malott reaches out with a push kick to the upper chest, and Holland’s response is to the calf. Holland scores a single right hand and leans back from the obligatory counter, and Malott slides to the side and gets off a side kick and one high. Holland scoots his way forward and eats a few punches.
Holland lands a one-two, and Malott appears to get his attention as Holland bends over and briefly considers a takedown. He bails on it to stand up and further bloody up the Canadian. Malott runs at his opponent and lifts him off the ground, and Holland’s arm goes out of the cage as he apologizes and says he is not grabbing anything but just has long arms. Malott pulls him back inside and down flat on his back, and he smothers “Trailblazer” and bashes him with right hands. Holland uses upkicks and butterfly hooks to frame off, only for Malott to slice through and climb into half guard with 60 seconds remaining. Malott threatens with an arm-triangle choke, stepping over to full mount and then to the side to complete the submission. The ultra-slippery Holland reverse-somersaults to somehow get out of the submission, and he worms his way back to his feet with Malott right after him. The Canadian bullies him to the wire, and looks for a mat return to wrap things up. Instead, he elbows Holland once, and they shake hands after time expires with no bad blood between them. That was certainly a fight of all time.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott (30-27 Malott)

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.

"I got to go with Mike Malott."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.

Malott by submission
"I'm going to pick Mike Malott. I'm gonna pick Mike Malot to win this fight by submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.

"I'm not going to take Kevin Holland. I'm going to go with Mike Malot."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"I definitely have a lot more faith in Mike Molotu fight a smart fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.

"I will pick Mike Malot in this fight. I think that he's still coming into his own. I think he may have improved after that Neil Magny fight. I think he might manage his cardio a little bit better. I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.

win by knockout
"I think Holland can really pick apart Melot from distance and Meot on paper is a better skill for skill fighter than Holland but I just don't think he can keep up with the speed, range or distance work of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.

"Holland Holland's the pick for me at a pick on price."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.

arm triangle submission in round two
"I'm going with Mike Malott, and I'm going to take Mike Malott by arm triangle submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Zane picks Malott, citing his composure, defensive soundness, and ability to pick targets. He notes that Malott can outwrestle Holland and kick his legs. Zane is concerned about Holland's inconsistency and recent poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, where Holland made terrible errors and got hurt. He believes Malott will fight a smart fight.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"So yeah, I'll take Molot over Holland, but it's not a bad test from a lot."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 1 82 of 173 47% 111 of 207 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:07
Kevin Holland 2 77 of 149 51% 111 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Kevin Holland 0 29 of 60 48% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 12 of 28 42% 34 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:05
Kevin Holland 2 31 of 55 56% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Daniel Rodriguez 1 30 of 62 48% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 34 50% 35 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 82 of 173 47% 53 of 126 13 of 22 16 of 25 60 of 137 17 of 27 5 of 9
Kevin Holland 77 of 149 51% 49 of 106 13 of 26 15 of 17 54 of 107 6 of 7 17 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 40 of 83 48% 20 of 50 6 of 12 14 of 21 39 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 29 of 60 48% 12 of 30 8 of 19 9 of 11 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 12 of 28 42% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 21 4 of 6 1 of 1
Kevin Holland 31 of 55 56% 27 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 22 5 of 6 14 of 27
3 Daniel Rodriguez 30 of 62 48% 25 of 55 4 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 35 12 of 19 4 of 8
Kevin Holland 17 of 34 50% 10 of 25 4 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)

Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.

"Kevin Holland absolutely smokes here. He's faster, he's cleaner, he's more powerful."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.

Holland by first round knockout
"Give me Kevin Holland to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.

"I have to pick Kevin Holland. No matter what."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.

knockout
"I expect him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and I think he can utilize his speed and stinging power to eventually line up a knockout getting that victory over Daniel Rodriguez."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.

Fight lasts more than 10 minutes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going to go with Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.

"It just feels like a shoe-in for Kevin Holland."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
Submission R2 1:03 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 35 of 64 54% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vicente Luque 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 24 of 46 52% 14 of 32 3 of 6 7 of 8 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 40 of 74 54% 25 of 58 5 of 6 10 of 10 26 of 56 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 22 of 40 55% 13 of 28 3 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 35 of 64 54% 23 of 51 5 of 6 7 of 7 21 of 46 14 of 18 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)

Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.

"Vicente Luc is going to be the pick. At least you can trust him to do what he's supposed to do."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.

Holland by KO in round 1
"I think Kevin Holland knocks out Lu and I think he does it in the very first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Connor thinks the line is fair.
"I also think this was a very winnable matchup for Kevin Holland."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.

Luque is a live underdog; Holland by KO
"I will stick with my prediction of Kevin Holland winning by knockout. But I think Vicente Luc is a very live underdog, especially if he can get to his takedowns and showcase his slick submission game as we've seen in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.

Finish prediction: decision win.
"I think Holland wins this one though, man. It's hard to get to Holland's chin moving forward..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Zane thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think he'll win."
WIN vs Gunnar Nelson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 15 of 24 62% 30 of 44 3 of 10 30% 1 0 9:29
Kevin Holland 1 55 of 89 61% 138 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Kevin Holland 1 19 of 37 51% 31 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 11 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:22
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 23 73% 73 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Gunnar Nelson 0 7 of 9 77% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:12
Kevin Holland 0 19 of 29 65% 34 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 15 of 24 62% 10 of 19 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 7 of 8 6 of 9
Kevin Holland 55 of 89 61% 30 of 57 15 of 20 10 of 12 15 of 34 22 of 27 18 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 37 51% 10 of 24 3 of 5 6 of 8 9 of 20 4 of 4 6 of 13
2 Gunnar Nelson 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 17 of 23 73% 9 of 15 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 7 6 of 7 8 of 9
3 Gunnar Nelson 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 29 65% 11 of 18 6 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 12 of 16 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)

Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Small bet on Kevin Holland
"I am going to pick Kevin and I know his takedown defense is worse than my six-year-old daughter's... but damn it at times he's a good fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Holland by KO round 2
"One Last Ride Kevin Holland don't let me down knock this guy out give me Kevin Holland to win this fight and win this fight by second round knock out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"Yeah, I mean I just feel like because of the who gunner nelson always has been as a fighter ... he'll probably look pretty much exactly the same."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

submission
"I think he'll be able to showcase that once again here, eventually getting the body lock, dragging this fight to the ground, and eventually finding the back and wrapping up a submission win over Kevin Holland."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

submission round 1 (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna have to imagine Gana Nelson gets a takedown and gets a re naked choke over Kevin Holland"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"If we simply go with the assumption that nelson is going to look more or less the same ... I think kevin holland is going to leap right into his hands."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:31 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)

Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

"I do think he wins this fight the odds are ing last time I said I thought he was going to win this fight he was a much bigger underdog now he's plus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Mentions de Ridder may finish inside the distance with a submission. No specific odds.
"Rainer to Ritter that's exactly what he's looking to do he's not looking to have a fun striking match with you... he's looking to throw a right hand he's going to look to close that pocket get a hold of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Odds: de Ridder opened +132, now -105; Holland opened -147, now -105. Connor thinks de Ridder deserves to be the favorite.
"I gotta take Reinier de Ridder."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Daniel took de Ridder at +126 for 2 units. He says the fade Kevin Holland World Tour continues and expects a submission win.
"I took uh rer der rder about a week or two ago at a plus 126"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

"I'm going with the Ridder in this fight obviously it's a bit of a step up in competition from gm3 Kevin Holland is a Mainstay in the UFC but at the end of the day I don't think Kevin Holland …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

submission victory
"I think he's going to struggle to keep darer off of him which will lead to dder eventually finding a dominant position and getting a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm with you I'll I'll take rer the Ritter at a pick on price here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

submission
"I will take Raina Dara to submit Kevin Holland early or in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm gonna take de Ridder as well."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.

over 2.5 rounds considered
"I am going to lean Holland it might be recency bias I'm hoping it's not and I just think it's going to come down to I know how tough Holland is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.

second round submission
"I think I'm gonna go with Kevin Holland here with with little to no confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.

"I'm also GNA take Holland but by or beware... I just think the numberers too good on Kevin Holland dog money."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.

bet at plus-100, now minus-145; could hedge on Holland for profit
"I'm gonna ride it out on Jack Dilla and here's why"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.

"give me the underdog shot here on Holland who I think he has more paths to Victory here and I think he has a good enough striking game to compete against Elena make this close... I think it ends up happening by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.

"I bet Kevin Holland and you know me historically Kevin Holland hater... I'll take the bigger opponent with decent enough grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Kevin Holland, stating the odds were wrong to have him as an underdog. He believes Holland won't grapple, which benefits JDM's striking. He envisions Holland backed against the cage using a Philly shell and JDM landing a liver shot for a TKO. He notes Holland's weight cut to welterweight and JDM's power in his hands.

TKO via liver shot, late first or second round
"I'm gonna go with Jack Della madalena over Kevin Holland"