Career Averages - Alexa Grasso
Career Averages - Valentina Shevchenko
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko
Alexa Grasso - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 1 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 1 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 12 of 38 | 31% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Maycee Barber | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 12 of 38 | 31% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Maycee Barber | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Maycee Barber, believing she has improved more than Alexa Grasso and that Grasso has lost confidence. He thinks Barber's wrestling and pressure will be key, but notes the odds are a touch wide given their history. He advises waiting for weigh-ins before betting due to Barber's weight cut issues.
Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win by decision. He notes that Barber has improved significantly since their first fight, now on a seven-fight winning streak. He expects the fight to be close on the feet but believes Barber's strength and physicality will be the difference, as she can push Grasso against the cage and take her down. He cautions that Barber must avoid getting reversed and submitted, as happened in the first fight, but if she stays on top and is smart, she should win.
Cody thinks the fight is close to 50-50 and sees value on Grasso as the underdog. He notes Grasso's regression but believes Barber's takedown defense is poor and Grasso can win the rematch. He's hesitant but picks Grasso due to the plus money.
Connor notes that Barber has tightened up her striking and evolved a ton as a clinch fighter, landing nasty short shots, elbows, knees, and hockey punches. He believes Barber can force the clinch again and has only gotten better at winning that kind of fight, while Grasso has stagnated and become aimless. He points out that Grasso's recent performances show no plan or goal.
Daniel notes Barber is on a career-best win streak and physically matured, while Grasso has declined since her title win. He expects Barber to bully Grasso and avenge her earlier loss, securing a title shot.
The host initially liked Barber at -149 but missed the odds as they steamed to -153. He still leans Barber due to her power, improved scrambling, and ability to hold her own on the feet. Grasso is more technical but lacks power and is weak off her back. However, the host passes because the current odds (-153) reflect fair value and he cannot give Barber more than a 65% chance.
The host leans towards Grasso as the slicker striker, expecting her to out-strike Barber and win a close decision. He acknowledges Barber's improvements in grappling and clinch but thinks Grasso's technical striking and control will be enough. He notes the odds are wide due to recent momentum and sees value in the underdog.
Paul doesn't make a firm pick, calling it a dog or pass situation. He acknowledges the value on Grasso but doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, citing her physical density and toughness. He believes Barber's pressure and improved grappling will overcome Alexa Grasso, who he thinks has stagnated. He notes Grasso's recent losses and predictable striking. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28, and suggests the UFC may favor Barber as a fresh contender.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Barber has gotten better at making her fight happen and forcing it on the opponent. He notes that Grasso is aimless and will have whatever fight the opponent wants to dictate. He also mentions that Barber is tough to finish and has only lost by decision, one of which was to Grasso in a close fight where Barber won the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 139 | 32% | 54 of 149 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 65 of 164 | 39% | 74 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 12 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 19 of 51 | 37% | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 15 of 52 | 28% | 23 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 28 of 60 | 46% | 29 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 139 | 32% | 28 of 101 | 5 of 15 | 12 of 23 | 43 of 136 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 65 of 164 | 39% | 42 of 137 | 9 of 11 | 14 of 16 | 64 of 162 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 11 of 36 | 30% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 16 of 48 | 33% | 6 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 19 of 51 | 37% | 13 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 21 of 56 | 37% | 17 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 15 of 52 | 28% | 8 of 35 | 2 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 28 of 60 | 46% | 19 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva confidently, calling her the future of the division. He notes Alexa Grasso is a former champion who never defended her belt and has struggled. He believes Silva's speed, accuracy, and mobility will give Grasso trouble finding her range. He suggests parlaying Silva with other favorite women on the card, as he thinks the women's fights provide stability.
Big Brady is confident in Natália Silva, noting she is younger, in her prime, and a better striker. He questions Alexa Grasso's form after a poor performance against Valentina Shevchenko, possibly due to injury. He thinks Silva can win by decision and may even mix in takedowns. He doesn't love the -220 price but believes Silva wins.
Connor picks Natália Silva, agreeing with Zane that Silva's speed and mobility will be too much for Grasso. He notes that Grasso's game is rudimentary and she tends to have the same exchanges repeatedly, while Silva can fight her way out of corners and land bigger shots. Connor believes Silva's athleticism and dynamic striking will earn her a win and a title shot.
The host believes Silva's style—perpetual movement, lateral movement, range management, and blitzing attacks—will frustrate Grasso and cause her to walk into big shots. He expects Silva to win clearly on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, calling her 'the truth' of the division. He praises her striking, takedown defense, and ability to piece up opponents like Jasudavicius. He thinks Grasso's linear style and high guard are tailor-made for Silva's front kicks and lateral movement. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27, but notes the UFC may favor Grasso for the Guadalajara card.
Zane picks Natália Silva, arguing that her speed, mobility, and long-range output will outwork Grasso. He notes that Grasso tends to be stationary when throwing and will struggle to deal with Silva's constant movement and kicking game. Zane points to Grasso's fight with Vivi Araujo as a blueprint for how a similar athlete can give her trouble, and believes Silva is more dynamic than Araujo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 18 of 100 | 18% | 153 of 245 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 80 | 56% | 193 of 233 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 16:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 41 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 29 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 5 of 35 | 14% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 35 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 23 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 65 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 54 of 71 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 28 of 37 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 18 of 100 | 18% | 8 of 74 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 16 | 16 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 80 | 56% | 38 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 39 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 2 of 19 | 10% | 1 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 10 of 18 | 55% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 2 of 13 | 15% | 1 of 8 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 5 of 35 | 14% | 2 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 16 of 26 | 61% | 13 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 1 of 12 | 8% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 8 of 21 | 38% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 14 of 23 | 60% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexa Grasso despite acknowledging that Valentina Shevchenko likely won the last fight. He sees improvements in Grasso's game between the two fights, noting she won exchanges, rounds, and even dropped Valentina in the second fight. He believes the wrestling gap is tightening and the speed gap is widening, and that Grasso is younger, faster, and more creative. He placed half a unit on Grasso at -115, recognizing it's hard for a champion to win back the belt but thinks Grasso gets it done.
Big Brady acknowledges Shevchenko arguably won the second fight but notes her regression and Grasso's improvement. He also factors in the Mexican crowd and potential judging bias. He predicts Grasso wins a close decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexa Grasso because her trajectory is still upward while Valentina Shevchenko's is declining. He notes Shevchenko has lost a step in defensive grappling since the Taila Santos fight, and Grasso's striking and grappling have improved significantly. He believes Grasso's speed, cardio, and youth will be the deciding factors.
Daniel picks Alexa Grasso to win the trilogy, arguing that Valentina hasn't evolved enough and that long-reigning champions rarely reclaim their belts. He notes Grasso's faster hands, higher volume, and finishing upside, while worrying about Grasso being taken down and controlled. He believes history favors Grasso and that she will make bigger improvements.
Jeff Fox agrees with Daniel Vreeland, noting Shevchenko's decline had started even before facing Grasso. He mentions Shevchenko's mindset of thinking she won the last fight is not good. He goes with the ascending fighter who is much younger and already beat her.
The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host only mentions Kayla Harrison vs Juliana Peña as the other title fight, not Shevchenko vs Grasso.
Shevchenko was a minus 800 favorite in the first fight and minus 160 in the second, now a plus 120 underdog. She was up 2-1 in the first before being submitted, and should have won the last fight if not for a bad scorecard. Expects Shevchenko to come even safer and cleaner, leaning on her wrestling to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso. He notes Shevchenko is aging at 36 and may carry negative energy from the controversial loss. Grasso is younger and improving, and he sees her capitalizing on Shevchenko's potential emotional state. He also mentions Grasso dropped Shevchenko in the second fight and could finish with a choke or win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 1 | 84 of 203 | 41% | 262 of 408 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:39 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 80 of 179 | 44% | 199 of 301 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 8:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 60 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 1 | 28 of 42 | 66% | 86 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 62 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 35 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 40 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:16 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 38 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 43 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 41 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 84 of 203 | 41% | 54 of 151 | 12 of 22 | 18 of 30 | 51 of 160 | 31 of 35 | 2 of 8 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 80 of 179 | 44% | 61 of 158 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 67 of 158 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 12 of 41 | 29% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 9 | 9 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 14 of 40 | 35% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 28 of 42 | 66% | 20 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 17 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 15 of 29 | 51% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 13 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 9 of 18 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 20 of 49 | 40% | 13 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 39 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 19 of 43 | 44% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 20 of 56 | 35% | 11 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 7 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 23 of 49 | 46% | 20 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Valentina Shevchenko despite her recent loss, believing she will wrestle heavy like she did against Maia. He notes her odds are the best since 2017 and compares it to Amanda Nunes getting her belt back. He acknowledges Grasso's skills but thinks Shevchenko's adjustments will lead to victory. He has no bet yet due to PTSD from UFC 293.
Big Brady picks Shevchenko, arguing that she was winning the first fight until a mistake. He notes Shevchenko outlanded Grasso in most rounds and has more tools on the feet. He believes Grasso's takedown defense is still poor and that Shevchenko's experience and skill will prevail. He predicts a dominant decision, 49-46 or 50-45.
Cody picks Grasso at plus 140, emphasizing the five-year age difference and Shevchenko's decline. He points out that Grasso won the first round in their first fight, was out-striking Shevchenko, and submitted her after a spinning back kick. He believes the momentum was with Grasso and that Shevchenko's cardio may not hold up. He also notes the 90% rematch stat and says Grasso has a lot of merit.
Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko despite acknowledging the historical trend of long-reigning champions losing immediate rematches. He notes that submission losses are easier to recover from than knockouts, and he believes Valentina's decline may be overstated. However, he admits his bitterness over missing the plus-200 line on Grasso influences his pick, and he hopes he is wrong because he would like to see the division move forward with fresh matchups.
Shevchenko had a clear grappling advantage in the first fight, controlling rounds 2 and 3 before getting caught in the fourth. She should make adjustments, trust her striking more to set up takedowns, and bank rounds early. Grasso may have improved takedown defense, but Shevchenko's strength and experience should prevail. I'm hesitant because of the similarity to Usman vs Edwards 2, but I still favor Shevchenko by decision.
Paul sides with Grasso as a slight underdog, citing Shevchenko's age (35) and recent vulnerability in fights against Taylor Santos and Jennifer Maia. He notes Grasso's youth (30) and improvement, and mentions a 90% stat where younger challengers who beat an older champion win the rematch. However, he is hesitant because the fight is in Vegas, not Mexico, and he may not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso, having switched from Grasso. He rewatched the first fight and notes Shevchenko was winning on all scorecards before the submission. He believes Shevchenko will focus on grappling and avoid spinning back kicks. He compares it to the Nunes-Pena rematch, suggesting Shevchenko will be more focused. He predicts a 48-47 unanimous decision for Shevchenko.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 87 of 145 | 60% | 167 of 228 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:24 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 59 of 181 | 32% | 182 of 308 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 32 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 56 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 7 of 36 | 19% | 60 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 27 of 32 | 84% | 53 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 70 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 13 of 43 | 30% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 87 of 145 | 60% | 68 of 121 | 8 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 80 of 133 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 59 of 181 | 32% | 31 of 137 | 12 of 18 | 16 of 26 | 50 of 172 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 26 of 51 | 50% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 24 of 65 | 36% | 9 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 59 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 12 of 22 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 7 of 36 | 19% | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 27 of 32 | 84% | 26 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 15 of 37 | 40% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 22 of 40 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 13 of 43 | 30% | 8 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, stating she is better everywhere and will push Grasso around. He notes that Grasso is not a dangerous fighter and that Shevchenko should have no issues. Angelo sees this as a relief fight for Shevchenko after the Talia Santos fight.
Big Brady is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, citing her superior striking and grappling. He notes Grasso has struggled with grappling in the past, and Shevchenko can take her down at will and dominate on the mat. He predicts a third-round TKO for Shevchenko, dismissing the idea that Grasso can pull off an upset.
Cody believes Shevchenko is nearly unbeatable at 125 and that Grasso lacks the grappling to exploit her. He notes Shevchenko's takedown ability and well-rounded game will be too much. He expects a decision win for Shevchenko but won't bet the -700 moneyline; he would parlay it.
Connor is confident Shevchenko wins, citing her ability to control distance and bully opponents in the clinch. He notes Grasso's poor range fighting and lack of feints or timing variation, which will make it easy for Shevchenko to counter or clinch. He believes Grasso's only path is a knockout in the pocket or a submission from her back, both unlikely. He mentions Shevchenko's declining athleticism but says Grasso's stylistic shortcomings are a death sentence.
Jacob picks Valentina Shevchenko, but notes that Grasso's volume striking could cause problems early. He believes Shevchenko may need to use her wrestling to dominate. Jacob acknowledges a path for Grasso but ultimately sees Shevchenko as the more complete fighter.
Shevchenko is a fast, explosive striker with a good ground game. Grasso is a good striker but has struggled with takedowns. Shevchenko will likely take the fight to the ground and control Grasso, winning a decision or possibly a TKO finish.
Paul picks Shevchenko but prefers the over 4.5 rounds at plus money. He notes Grasso has improved grappling and has never been finished outside of a submission loss to Suarez. He sees the fight going the distance and thinks the over is a solid bet.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko, believing her kicks will be the difference. He notes Grasso's boxing is good but she doesn't throw many kicks, and Shevchenko's top game could also be a factor. He predicts a decision win.
Zane agrees Shevchenko wins, emphasizing that Grasso's lack of distance management and predictable entries will lead to Shevchenko's clinch bullying. He notes Grasso is a good pocket boxer but cannot get there safely, and Shevchenko's takedown defense is weak but Grasso lacks the strength to exploit it. He sees Shevchenko's consistent game plan overwhelming Grasso.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 153 of 311 | 49% | 193 of 353 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 126 of 264 | 47% | 148 of 288 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 32 of 66 | 48% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 38 of 73 | 52% | 57 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 26 of 56 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 32 of 61 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 153 of 311 | 49% | 101 of 243 | 33 of 45 | 19 of 23 | 143 of 298 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 126 of 264 | 47% | 103 of 235 | 17 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 124 of 261 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 32 of 66 | 48% | 24 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 27 of 52 | 51% | 23 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 38 of 73 | 52% | 26 of 60 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 20 of 50 | 40% | 15 of 44 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 34 of 64 | 53% | 20 of 45 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 30 of 54 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 24 of 47 | 51% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 25 of 56 | 44% | 19 of 50 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 25 of 61 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 24 of 52 | 46% | 21 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.
Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.
Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.
Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.
Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.
Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.
Zane picks Grasso, citing her sharper punching and ability to land cleaner shots over five rounds. He notes that Grasso has been putting together nice combination counters in the pocket, similar to Robert Whittaker, and that Araujo is very hittable. He acknowledges Araujo's wrestling and grappling could be a factor but believes Grasso's scrambling and clinch work will be enough to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 49 | 69% | 61 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 50 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 49 | 69% | 61 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 50 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 34 of 49 | 69% | 22 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Joanne Wood | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 34 of 49 | 69% | 22 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Joanne Wood | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Joanne Wood as a pretty big underdog. He thinks the books are not giving her enough credit. He notes that while Alexa Grasso is undefeated at 125, Wood has only fought top competition and is incredibly well-rounded. He believes Grasso cannot bully or knock out Wood like her previous opponents did.
Big Brady picks Joanne Wood as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Wood has excellent volume (6.71 significant strikes per minute) and can mix in takedowns, while Grasso has poor takedown defense (60%) and has been taken down by wrestlers like Suarez and Esparza. He notes that Wood's last loss was to Talia Santos, who is a beast, and that Wood looked good before that, including a win over Jessica Eye. He admits Wood might be washed but thinks the line is off.
Cody leans Grasso but acknowledges Wood's volume striking and durability. He notes Wood's technical boxing is poor and she gets hit clean, while Grasso lands sharper shots. He mentions Wood's recent losses and age, but thinks the fight could be close. He expects Grasso to win but not confidently.
Daniel Levi picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her improvement since moving up to flyweight, faster hands, and growing confidence. He notes Joanne Wood is hot-and-cold and may have mentally checked out after losing her title shot. He expects Grasso to win but cautions that the line at -235 is steep, and the fight could be a close decision due to poor judging. He suggests betting Grasso only if under -200.
The host picks Grasso but is not confident, citing her lack of finishing ability and the possibility of a close decision. He notes Wood's volume could sway judges if Grasso doesn't land significant strikes. He prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop over the moneyline.
Paul picks Grasso but doesn't love the price. He thinks Wood's volume striking and front kicks could cause problems, but Grasso has improved her grappling and is younger. He sees the fight as close and competitive, possibly a split decision. He wouldn't fault someone for taking Wood as an underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso over Joanne Wood, calling Grasso a much better boxer with superior hands, defense, footwork, and chin at this stage. He notes Wood's recent KO loss and quick turnaround, and believes Grasso will get a submission win, possibly a d'arce choke, after hurting Wood on the feet. The Guru acknowledges Wood's volume could be a factor but trusts Grasso's technical edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 40 of 152 | 26% | 50 of 165 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 38 of 81 | 46% | 95 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 5:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 10 of 48 | 20% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 44 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 8 of 44 | 18% | 10 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 30 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 60 | 36% | 25 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 40 of 152 | 26% | 23 of 130 | 14 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 119 | 20 of 31 | 2 of 2 |
| Maycee Barber | 38 of 81 | 46% | 24 of 57 | 9 of 14 | 5 of 10 | 25 of 61 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 10 of 48 | 20% | 3 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Maycee Barber | 13 of 21 | 61% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 8 of 44 | 18% | 5 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Maycee Barber | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 28 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 22 of 60 | 36% | 15 of 51 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 40 | 12 of 18 | 2 of 2 |
| Maycee Barber | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 18 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady slightly leans with the underdog Maycee Barber in a 50/50 fight. He thinks Barber will be the stronger, more aggressive fighter and land the harder shots. He notes that Grasso has struggled with her ground game and that Barber could get takedowns. He is not confident and says it could go either way, depending on whether judges favor volume or power.
Daniel Levi picks Maycee Barber, emphasizing her power advantage and finishing ability. He notes that Barber started her career with a three-fight KO streak and believes power overrides technique in women's weight classes. He acknowledges Grasso's technical striking but thinks Barber's power and ground-and-pound will be decisive. He also mentions that Barber is bigger and hits harder, and that the line movement favors her.
The host favors Grasso's superior boxing and technical striking, noting that Barber's kryptonite is a technical boxer who can stand her ground and counter. He questions Barber's recovery from ACL surgery and believes this is too tough a test for her return. He expects Grasso to outbox Barber over three rounds and win a decision.
The Guru picks Alexa Grasso, citing her superior boxing technique and experience against tougher competition at strawweight. He notes Maycee Barber's long layoff due to an ACL injury and her tendency to get hit by wild shots, as seen in the JJ Aldridge fight. He believes Grasso's reach advantage and technical one-twos and leg kicks will allow her to pick Barber apart for a unanimous decision win.
Valentina Shevchenko - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 41 of 68 | 60% | 137 of 186 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 13:24 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 32 of 98 | 32% | 80 of 161 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 21 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 34 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 19 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 31 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 32 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 41 of 68 | 60% | 21 of 44 | 14 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 47 | 8 of 14 | 6 of 7 |
| Zhang Weili | 32 of 98 | 32% | 9 of 59 | 13 of 26 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 90 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 8 of 13 | 61% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 9 of 10 | 90% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Zhang Weili | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Zhang Weili | 9 of 26 | 34% | 1 of 15 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 13 of 21 | 61% | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 10 of 30 | 33% | 3 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Zhang Weili | 5 of 17 | 29% | 1 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Zhang Weili, citing her superior wrestling and athleticism. He believes Weili's clean double-leg takedowns will be effective against Valentina Shevchenko, who relies on striking to set up takedowns. He acknowledges Shevchenko's experience and durability but thinks Weili's speed and wrestling will be the difference.
Big Brady leans Valentina Shevchenko, citing her size advantage and natural weight class. He notes Shevchenko's wrestling ability, having taken down Manon Fiorot, and believes she can get takedowns on Zhang Weili, who was taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas. However, he acknowledges Zhang's physical strength and says it wouldn't shock him if Zhang gets top position. Brady is not betting on this fight and predicts a decision win for Shevchenko.
Cody picks Valentina due to her size, experience, and well-rounded skills. He notes that she is an elite kickboxer and wrestler, and that her trilogy with Grasso was a blip. He highlights that Zhang has had takedown defense issues in the past, and that Valentina consistently scores takedowns. He believes Valentina's size and strength will be key, and that she will win by decision.
Connor picks Shevchenko but is hesitant, calling it a coin flip. He argues that Shevchenko's simple, patient style and mental stamina will frustrate Zhang, who struggles with distance and initiating exchanges. He notes that Zhang's wrestling might be neutralized by Shevchenko's clinch and top control, and that Zhang has been vulnerable when taken down.
Daniel respects Shevchenko's technical striking and well-rounded game, but sees Zhang as the fighter making rapid improvements, especially in wrestling. He notes that Zhang has outgrappled elite wrestlers like Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez, while Shevchenko hasn't shown the same evolution. He also likes the dog odds on Zhang and believes she can become a double champ.
Lucrative James picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, stating she is the greatest women's fighter of all time. He believes her wrestling and grappling are superior to Zhang's, and she can outskill her on the feet. He notes both fighters have losses due to grappling, but trusts Shevchenko's takedown accuracy and experience against tougher opponents. He expects Shevchenko to control the fight and win a decision or possibly a late submission.
Shevchenko's size and overall MMA advantages muzzle Zhang's style. She mixes martial arts well, sets up takedowns behind strikes, and wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Valentina's size advantage and superior wrestling. He notes that both fighters are similar in age but that Valentina is the bigger fighter and has a better takedown ratio. He thinks the fight will come down to grappling and top position, and that Valentina will win those exchanges. He also mentions that Valentina is more technical on the feet.
The Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by split decision. He believes Zhang is a better fighter than Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot, who gave Shevchenko close fights. He notes Shevchenko's recent performances have been less dominant, and Zhang's grappling and striking should be competitive. The Guru also suggests promotional favoritism towards the Chinese market could influence a close decision.
Zane also picks Shevchenko hesitantly, emphasizing that Zhang's game plan may not work against Shevchenko's patience. He notes that Zhang has become a punch-and-clutch fighter but still struggles with range, and Shevchenko will force her to initiate. He sees Shevchenko's ability to maintain a low-risk fight as key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 1 | 72 of 149 | 48% | 173 of 251 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 71 of 160 | 44% | 150 of 239 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 7:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 57 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 31 of 47 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 36 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 38 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 72 of 149 | 48% | 48 of 118 | 7 of 12 | 17 of 19 | 62 of 126 | 7 of 18 | 3 of 5 |
| Manon Fiorot | 71 of 160 | 44% | 29 of 113 | 35 of 37 | 7 of 10 | 40 of 124 | 29 of 33 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 19 of 36 | 52% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Manon Fiorot | 13 of 32 | 40% | 6 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 8 of 20 | 40% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Manon Fiorot | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 14 of 28 | 50% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Manon Fiorot | 14 of 28 | 50% | 5 of 16 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 18 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 6 | 2 of 4 |
| Manon Fiorot | 14 of 33 | 42% | 5 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 15 of 33 | 45% | 12 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Manon Fiorot | 18 of 39 | 46% | 6 of 27 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiorot (-148), Shevchenko (+124)
Round 1
For the first time since 2022, champion Shevchenko (24-4-1, 13-3-1 UFC) will be facing a woman not named Grasso. She draws surging Frenchwoman Fiorot (12-1, 7-0 UFC), who could become the first French-born undisputed champion in UFC history—Ciryl Gane won the interim heavyweight strap. To the surprise of some, Fiorot will close as the betting favorite, but when the cage door closes, it’s all between the two flyweights and referee Marc Goddard. They cordially tap their gloves together to make it official. Shevchenko slaps out a leg kick and leans to avoid a head kick, with Fiorot advancing early. Shevchenko pushes her away to score a body kick, and she zips away before another high kick can reach her. Shevchenko clips the challenger with a one-two, who seems surprised by the blows and has to blink them out. Shevchenko blocks a kick to get off a right hand, and she ducks a right hook when Fiorot strikes. Fiorot plants a kick on the lead leg, and she is countered when trying a second. Shevchenko lets Fiorot come in so she can catch her with a check right hook, and Fiorot looks for a kick on the other side. Shevchenko considers changing levels, but ends up blocking a kick and skirting to the side. Shevchenko stands the Frenchwoman up with a right hand, and her low kick continues to find its mark. Shevchenko flicks up a kick to the nose that reddens it up fast, and Fiorot adjusts it. Shevchenko spins with a wheel kick, and Fiorot dodges but cannot get her hands on the champ. Fiorot walks face-first into a right hand, and she bangs her lead leg into her foe’s guard. The right hand from Shevchenko bloodies up Fiorot’s nose, and she stings her again and shakes her up. The nose for the challenger is busted and bleeding badly just three minutes in, and Fiorot ignores it and surges forward. Shevchenko dances easily out of the way to reset, and she is met with a kick that she catches and tackles Fiorot to the ground. Shevchenko lands in half guard, where she lords over her foe and completely controls her. Goddard asks for more action, with Shevchenko content to impose heavy shoulder pressure. Fiorot elbows her opponent in the posterior while Shevchenko lands a few punches, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Round 2
Fiorot starts the round with her foot flying, and she shoots in for a double. Shevchenko leans against the wall to defend it, and she ducks away to escape. Shevchenko whips a kick up high that starts the bleeding again, and Fiorot promptly wipes her nose. Shevchenko spins with a back kick that slams into her ribs, and she skips away to evade a counter. Fiorot level changes and hits a 5-foot-5 wall that punches her in the face. Fiorot comes up short with a head kick, and she goes after a single that is equally futile. Shevchenko stands and waits for her opponent to come to her, countering her and hitting a trip to put the Frenchwoman on the mat. Fiorot scrambles madly to flip Shevchenko over, and they both get to their feet. Shevchenko beats Fiorot to the punch with her jab repeatedly, and she shoots for a double and cannot quite get it as Fiorot hops around skillfully. Fiorot pushes her foe back to get back to kickboxing range, and she raises up a high kick that gets blocked. Fiorot shoots for a takedown, and Shevchenko sprawls against the wall. Fiorot peels her leg away and grabs her from behind, leaning on the champ and kneeing her to the back of the thigh. Shevchenko spins away, but not before eating an elbow. Fiorot’s head kick cannot find its target, and she times a right hand with a takedown shot. Fiorot uses pure brute force to lift Shevchenko up in the air and dump her down, where she laces her legs around “Bullet” to pin her to her seat. Shevchenko posts off her right arm and barely blocks an illegal knee while she was grounded that Goddard did not see. Shevchenko does not protest, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Round 3
Goddard issues a hard warning between rounds, having acknowledged the near-foul, and the ladies get back to combat. They trade leg kicks to start, and Shevchenko goes high while Fiorot goes low a second time. Fiorot ignores a head kick that soars past her, and she stands there waiting for more offense to come at her. It is another blockable head kick, and she stuffs a takedown and reaches out with a right hand as Fiorot abandons it. The champ kicks the inside of the lead leg and flicks out a few jabs to get some space, and she nearly gets caught with a high kick. Shevchenko kicks the outer side of the leg, and they crash together when both going for level changes. Fiorot brings up a knee and an elbow, and Shevchenko scores a few jabs. When Fiorot charges, Shevchenko turns to the side and sprints around the cage to reset. Shevchenko shoots for a takedown that is unsuccessful, and she comes up top with a right hand. Fiorot fails on her own takedown effort, and she clinches up to drive four knees to the midsection. Shevchenko misses on a front kick to break, and she proceeds to work the front leg further. Fiorot flails her way in, inaccurate with her approach, and Shevchenko knees her in the face when Fiorot ducks down. This does not deter the Frenchwoman, who looks for a body lock takedown. Fiorot scores a knee or two to the inner thigh, and she plants one on the groin that Shevchenko once again does not protest. On the break, Shevchenko busts her foe’s nose open again with a right hand. The jab is soon to follow from the champ, who spins with a powerful back fist that forces Fiorot to shoot. Fiorot uses pure power to elevate her foe, and Shevchenko is able to hop around and keep her balance with the wall at her side. Fiorot knees the back of the leg, and Shevchenko pushes off the cage as Fiorot’s team claim falsely that she grabbed the fence—Goddard replies, “not even close.” Shevchenko pushes off with a punch and a kick, and the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Round 4
The women meet the championship rounds, and Fiorot is amped up and ready to continue as she pitches kicks and jabs out. Fiorot lands a side kick, and Shevchenko surges forward with two hooks. Shevchenko times a head kick to spin with a wheel kick that nails the challenger on the chin. Fiorot shakes her head, and she has her nose bleeding early with peppery jabs. Fiorot ducks under one in pursuit of a double, and she succeeds in pushing Shevchenko against the cage but no further. Fiorot settles for a few knees up close and personal, and she transitions to a single that Shevchenko thwarts with a few punches up top. Fiorot zips past her foe with offense, and Shevchenko is calm and a cucumber and counters her. Shevchenko tries a quick takedown, and Fiorot backs her off with a knee to the midsection. Shevchenko knees Fiorot and skirts to the side to let the Frenchwoman go past her again, playing the matador. She drills Fiorot with a stern spinning kick to the ribcage, and all Fiorot can do is reset and try to move forward and clinch. Fiorot scores a knee in the tie-up before pushing her to the wall, where she leans heavily on her adversary and scoring a few more knees. Shevchenko breaks free while dodging a knee up the middle, and she kicks the lead leg of her advancing foe. Fiorot leaps forward and is out of range, and Shevchenko times a sneaky takedown to drag Fiorot to her seat. Fiorot rushes back to her feet and starts kneeing the champ in the side. Fiorot manages to get off an elbow in the clinch, and she pushes out a side kick. Fiorot spins with nothing, and Shevchenko counters her with a right hand that sends her flying to the ground. Shevchenko pounces, ending the round in style with ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Round 5
The fifth round has arrived, and it could be split leading into it. Fiorot acknowledges this and fights behind her jab, while Shevchenko shifts to the side and keeps moving. Fiorot chases her down and knees her once in the belly before tying her up, and she looks for a body lock takedown. Fiorot whiffs with an elbow on the break, and a high kick grazes her chin on the way out. Shevchenko counters her over the top with a left hand, and Fiorot bites down on her mouthpiece and slings leather back her direction. Shevchenko ducks a few punches to change levels, and Fiorot stonewalls her and shoves her back. Shevchenko smacks the front leg with a kick, continuously moving and blasting Fiorot with a spinning back fist. Fiorot is tough as a stale baguette, and she pushes forward into the clinch. Shevchenko breaks away and kicks her in the side. Shevchenko pecks out a jab, and she leaps forward with a Superwoman punch and a level change. Fiorot turns her about and pushes her to the wall, but she cannot keep the champ there. Fiorot fakes a spin, and she is at least a foot away from a head kick. Shevchenko connects with a punch, and Fiorot darts towards her with a short punch salvo before clinching up again. Fiorot knees her in the belly and leans on her, winding up with distance to plant the knees on the thigh. Fiorot sneaks around to grab the back of the champion, who spins around with a right hand as Fiorot tosses a head kick at her. Shevchenko counters a kick with a right hand, and her one-two comes up short. Her second lands, but not before Fiorot scores too. Shevchenko dings the challenger with a spinning back fist, and Fiorot pays her back with a knee and an elbow. Shevchenko knees back, and she aims a head kick at the bell. They go the distance, and the scores could go either way. Both women put their hands in the air after 25 minutes of fairly evenly-matched combat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko (48-47 Shevchenko)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (48-47 Fiorot)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (48-47 Fiorot)
The Official Result
Valentina Shevchenko def. Manon Fiorot via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Manon Fiorot to become the new champion, citing her size, power, takedown defense, and striking. He acknowledges Valentina Shevchenko's evolution into wrestling but believes Fiorot's takedown defense and power will be too much. He thinks Fiorot controls the striking and keeps the fight on her feet.
Big Brady is hesitant but leans Fiorot. He notes Fiorot's high-volume striking, elite takedown defense (93%), and physical strength. He acknowledges Shevchenko looked great against Grasso but questions if that was due to Grasso's poor performance. He thinks Fiorot's movement and the big cage help her, and she can defend takedowns. He predicts a close decision win for Fiorot.
Connor picks Valentina Shevchenko, agreeing with Zane that she is a master of distance management. He notes that Fiorot's wrestling has not been tested against someone like Shevchenko, who has developed new takedown entries. Connor believes that Fiorot's game is not dynamic enough to exploit any potential age-related decline in Shevchenko.
The host notes Shevchenko has been an underdog three times in the UFC and is 3-0 in those fights, expecting her to go 4-0. He believes she will compete in striking but ultimately use her clinch and grappling to dictate the pace and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Shevchenko, believing she is being disrespected as an underdog. He notes her championship experience, reach advantage, and recent dominant win over Grasso. He questions Fiorot's performance against Rose Namajunas, who fought with a broken hand, and thinks Shevchenko's technical striking and adjustments will win her a decision.
Zane picks Valentina Shevchenko, arguing that she is a master of distance management and preventative footwork, making it incredibly difficult for opponents to get into range. He notes that Fiorot's striking has structural flaws, with her chin rising and feet squaring when she commits. Zane believes that if Fiorot wins, it will be more a sign of Shevchenko's age than Fiorot's skill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 18 of 100 | 18% | 153 of 245 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 80 | 56% | 193 of 233 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 16:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 41 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 29 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 5 of 35 | 14% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 35 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 23 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 65 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 54 of 71 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 28 of 37 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 18 of 100 | 18% | 8 of 74 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 16 | 16 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 80 | 56% | 38 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 39 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 2 of 19 | 10% | 1 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 10 of 18 | 55% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 2 of 13 | 15% | 1 of 8 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 5 of 35 | 14% | 2 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 16 of 26 | 61% | 13 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 1 of 12 | 8% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 8 of 21 | 38% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 14 of 23 | 60% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexa Grasso despite acknowledging that Valentina Shevchenko likely won the last fight. He sees improvements in Grasso's game between the two fights, noting she won exchanges, rounds, and even dropped Valentina in the second fight. He believes the wrestling gap is tightening and the speed gap is widening, and that Grasso is younger, faster, and more creative. He placed half a unit on Grasso at -115, recognizing it's hard for a champion to win back the belt but thinks Grasso gets it done.
Big Brady acknowledges Shevchenko arguably won the second fight but notes her regression and Grasso's improvement. He also factors in the Mexican crowd and potential judging bias. He predicts Grasso wins a close decision.
Daniel picks Alexa Grasso to win the trilogy, arguing that Valentina hasn't evolved enough and that long-reigning champions rarely reclaim their belts. He notes Grasso's faster hands, higher volume, and finishing upside, while worrying about Grasso being taken down and controlled. He believes history favors Grasso and that she will make bigger improvements.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexa Grasso because her trajectory is still upward while Valentina Shevchenko's is declining. He notes Shevchenko has lost a step in defensive grappling since the Taila Santos fight, and Grasso's striking and grappling have improved significantly. He believes Grasso's speed, cardio, and youth will be the deciding factors.
Jeff Fox agrees with Daniel Vreeland, noting Shevchenko's decline had started even before facing Grasso. He mentions Shevchenko's mindset of thinking she won the last fight is not good. He goes with the ascending fighter who is much younger and already beat her.
The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host only mentions Kayla Harrison vs Juliana Peña as the other title fight, not Shevchenko vs Grasso.
Shevchenko was a minus 800 favorite in the first fight and minus 160 in the second, now a plus 120 underdog. She was up 2-1 in the first before being submitted, and should have won the last fight if not for a bad scorecard. Expects Shevchenko to come even safer and cleaner, leaning on her wrestling to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso. He notes Shevchenko is aging at 36 and may carry negative energy from the controversial loss. Grasso is younger and improving, and he sees her capitalizing on Shevchenko's potential emotional state. He also mentions Grasso dropped Shevchenko in the second fight and could finish with a choke or win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 1 | 84 of 203 | 41% | 262 of 408 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:39 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 80 of 179 | 44% | 199 of 301 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 8:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 60 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 1 | 28 of 42 | 66% | 86 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 62 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 35 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 40 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:16 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 38 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 43 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 41 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 84 of 203 | 41% | 54 of 151 | 12 of 22 | 18 of 30 | 51 of 160 | 31 of 35 | 2 of 8 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 80 of 179 | 44% | 61 of 158 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 67 of 158 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 12 of 41 | 29% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 9 | 9 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 14 of 40 | 35% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 28 of 42 | 66% | 20 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 17 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 15 of 29 | 51% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 13 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 9 of 18 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 20 of 49 | 40% | 13 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 39 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 19 of 43 | 44% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 20 of 56 | 35% | 11 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 7 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 23 of 49 | 46% | 20 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Valentina Shevchenko despite her recent loss, believing she will wrestle heavy like she did against Maia. He notes her odds are the best since 2017 and compares it to Amanda Nunes getting her belt back. He acknowledges Grasso's skills but thinks Shevchenko's adjustments will lead to victory. He has no bet yet due to PTSD from UFC 293.
Big Brady picks Shevchenko, arguing that she was winning the first fight until a mistake. He notes Shevchenko outlanded Grasso in most rounds and has more tools on the feet. He believes Grasso's takedown defense is still poor and that Shevchenko's experience and skill will prevail. He predicts a dominant decision, 49-46 or 50-45.
Cody picks Grasso at plus 140, emphasizing the five-year age difference and Shevchenko's decline. He points out that Grasso won the first round in their first fight, was out-striking Shevchenko, and submitted her after a spinning back kick. He believes the momentum was with Grasso and that Shevchenko's cardio may not hold up. He also notes the 90% rematch stat and says Grasso has a lot of merit.
Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko despite acknowledging the historical trend of long-reigning champions losing immediate rematches. He notes that submission losses are easier to recover from than knockouts, and he believes Valentina's decline may be overstated. However, he admits his bitterness over missing the plus-200 line on Grasso influences his pick, and he hopes he is wrong because he would like to see the division move forward with fresh matchups.
Shevchenko had a clear grappling advantage in the first fight, controlling rounds 2 and 3 before getting caught in the fourth. She should make adjustments, trust her striking more to set up takedowns, and bank rounds early. Grasso may have improved takedown defense, but Shevchenko's strength and experience should prevail. I'm hesitant because of the similarity to Usman vs Edwards 2, but I still favor Shevchenko by decision.
Paul sides with Grasso as a slight underdog, citing Shevchenko's age (35) and recent vulnerability in fights against Taylor Santos and Jennifer Maia. He notes Grasso's youth (30) and improvement, and mentions a 90% stat where younger challengers who beat an older champion win the rematch. However, he is hesitant because the fight is in Vegas, not Mexico, and he may not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso, having switched from Grasso. He rewatched the first fight and notes Shevchenko was winning on all scorecards before the submission. He believes Shevchenko will focus on grappling and avoid spinning back kicks. He compares it to the Nunes-Pena rematch, suggesting Shevchenko will be more focused. He predicts a 48-47 unanimous decision for Shevchenko.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 87 of 145 | 60% | 167 of 228 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:24 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 59 of 181 | 32% | 182 of 308 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 32 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 56 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 7 of 36 | 19% | 60 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 27 of 32 | 84% | 53 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 70 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 13 of 43 | 30% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 87 of 145 | 60% | 68 of 121 | 8 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 80 of 133 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 59 of 181 | 32% | 31 of 137 | 12 of 18 | 16 of 26 | 50 of 172 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 26 of 51 | 50% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 24 of 65 | 36% | 9 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 59 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 12 of 22 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 7 of 36 | 19% | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 27 of 32 | 84% | 26 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 15 of 37 | 40% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 22 of 40 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 13 of 43 | 30% | 8 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, stating she is better everywhere and will push Grasso around. He notes that Grasso is not a dangerous fighter and that Shevchenko should have no issues. Angelo sees this as a relief fight for Shevchenko after the Talia Santos fight.
Big Brady is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, citing her superior striking and grappling. He notes Grasso has struggled with grappling in the past, and Shevchenko can take her down at will and dominate on the mat. He predicts a third-round TKO for Shevchenko, dismissing the idea that Grasso can pull off an upset.
Cody believes Shevchenko is nearly unbeatable at 125 and that Grasso lacks the grappling to exploit her. He notes Shevchenko's takedown ability and well-rounded game will be too much. He expects a decision win for Shevchenko but won't bet the -700 moneyline; he would parlay it.
Connor is confident Shevchenko wins, citing her ability to control distance and bully opponents in the clinch. He notes Grasso's poor range fighting and lack of feints or timing variation, which will make it easy for Shevchenko to counter or clinch. He believes Grasso's only path is a knockout in the pocket or a submission from her back, both unlikely. He mentions Shevchenko's declining athleticism but says Grasso's stylistic shortcomings are a death sentence.
Jacob picks Valentina Shevchenko, but notes that Grasso's volume striking could cause problems early. He believes Shevchenko may need to use her wrestling to dominate. Jacob acknowledges a path for Grasso but ultimately sees Shevchenko as the more complete fighter.
Shevchenko is a fast, explosive striker with a good ground game. Grasso is a good striker but has struggled with takedowns. Shevchenko will likely take the fight to the ground and control Grasso, winning a decision or possibly a TKO finish.
Paul picks Shevchenko but prefers the over 4.5 rounds at plus money. He notes Grasso has improved grappling and has never been finished outside of a submission loss to Suarez. He sees the fight going the distance and thinks the over is a solid bet.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko, believing her kicks will be the difference. He notes Grasso's boxing is good but she doesn't throw many kicks, and Shevchenko's top game could also be a factor. He predicts a decision win.
Zane agrees Shevchenko wins, emphasizing that Grasso's lack of distance management and predictable entries will lead to Shevchenko's clinch bullying. He notes Grasso is a good pocket boxer but cannot get there safely, and Shevchenko's takedown defense is weak but Grasso lacks the strength to exploit it. He sees Shevchenko's consistent game plan overwhelming Grasso.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 77 of 139 | 55% | 234 of 309 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 4:15 |
| Taila Santos | 0 | 55 of 102 | 53% | 128 of 180 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 8:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 35 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Taila Santos | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 64 of 81 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Taila Santos | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 31 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:40 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 46 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Taila Santos | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Taila Santos | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 33 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 52 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Taila Santos | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 42 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 77 of 139 | 55% | 46 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 19 of 21 | 65 of 123 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 |
| Taila Santos | 55 of 102 | 53% | 18 of 58 | 11 of 15 | 26 of 29 | 45 of 89 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Taila Santos | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 7 of 19 | 36% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Taila Santos | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 17 of 22 | 77% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Taila Santos | 7 of 15 | 46% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 29 of 59 | 49% | 20 of 48 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 56 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Taila Santos | 28 of 56 | 50% | 11 of 35 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 12 | 23 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 14 of 23 | 60% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Taila Santos | 11 of 14 | 78% | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Shevchenko confidently, acknowledging she is the best in the division. He notes Santos is dangerous and the toughest opponent Shevchenko has faced recently, but still believes Shevchenko wins. He mentions the odds are wide but doesn't recommend a bet due to the high price.
Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by TKO, expressing high confidence. He notes that Santos' best wins are against lower-level competition and that she lost to Mara Romero Barela. He believes Shevchenko is superior everywhere and will break Santos down, finishing her mid-to-late in the fight.
Cody is confident in Shevchenko, citing her elite skills, wrestling advantage, and championship experience. He questions Santos' level of competition and output, noting she hasn't faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to win by decision.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, dismissing Taila Santos's chances due to her poor performance against Mara Romero Barella. He believes Shevchenko is in her prime and has never been dominated in any facet. He notes that Santos's best win is against Joanne Calderwood, who gets finished repeatedly, and that Santos's nerves against Barella indicate she cannot handle the pressure of fighting Shevchenko. He expects Shevchenko to impose her will and win decisively.
Shevchenko is the better fighter everywhere. Santos has not shown enough to suggest she can compete with Shevchenko's level. Santos struggled to finish lesser opponents and lost to Mara Romero Borella. Shevchenko has fought Amanda Nunes closely and is on another level. The line is too high to bet, but Shevchenko wins easily.
Paul is confident in Shevchenko, calling her the most skilled female fighter. He dismisses Santos' resume and believes Shevchenko's wrestling, striking, and cardio are superior. He expects a decision win for the champion.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, citing her elite level and experience. He expects Shevchenko to outstrike Santos at range, chopping legs and jabbing. He acknowledges Santos has power and could land some shots, but believes Shevchenko's defense and composure will prevail. He thinks the fight will be competitive but Shevchenko will win clearly. He criticizes the title shot timing for Santos, suggesting she needed another fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 98 of 170 | 57% | 132 of 204 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 11 of 91 | 12% | 19 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 3 of 24 | 12% | 3 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 1 of 18 | 5% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 5 of 30 | 16% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 47 of 66 | 71% | 53 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 98 of 170 | 57% | 62 of 126 | 19 of 24 | 17 of 20 | 72 of 137 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 25 |
| Lauren Murphy | 11 of 91 | 12% | 4 of 73 | 3 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 20 of 39 | 51% | 9 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 3 of 24 | 12% | 2 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 10 of 17 | 58% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Lauren Murphy | 1 of 18 | 5% | 1 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 21 of 48 | 43% | 9 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 5 of 30 | 16% | 0 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 47 of 66 | 71% | 38 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 22 |
| Lauren Murphy | 2 of 19 | 10% | 1 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.
Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.
Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.
Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.
The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.
Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 32 of 39 | 82% | 90 of 97 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:11 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 47 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 26 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 31 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 22 of 23 | 95% | 64 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 32 of 39 | 82% | 27 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 18 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 10 of 15 | 66% | 2 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 8 of 11 | 72% | 0 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 22 of 23 | 95% | 21 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 18 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shevchenko to win by fifth-round TKO. He notes Shevchenko's technical striking, cardio, and takedown defense will be key. Andrade is hittable and smaller, and Shevchenko can pick her apart from the outside. He thinks the bigger cage favors Shevchenko and expects a late finish or dominant decision.
Cody picks Shevchenko but expresses concern about her recent reliance on grappling and low output. He notes Andrade's takedown defense and power but thinks Shevchenko's kickboxing and reach advantage will allow her to pick Andrade apart. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Shevchenko winning, possibly by decision. He also likes the over 4.5 rounds.
Daniel picks Valentina Shevchenko to win inside the distance, believing her technique will override Andrade's power. He notes Andrade is too open to getting hit and that Shevchenko can get the fight to the mat. He expects the fight to end under three rounds.
I think Shevchenko is technically superior and will outclass Andrade. She has a diverse striking game and can also take the fight to the ground. Andrade is a brawler with power, but Shevchenko's speed and technique should allow her to pick her apart. I like Shevchenko by decision at +140, and the over 2.5 at -185 is also a solid play as Shevchenko tends to grind out wins.
Paul picks Shevchenko to retain, citing her technical striking and reach advantage. He acknowledges Andrade's power and takedown ability but believes Shevchenko's footwork and distance control will be key. He notes the -425 price is steep but expects Shevchenko to win, possibly by decision. He also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a potential play.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's power and momentum but believes Shevchenko is a bigger, stronger, more technical striker with better cardio. He thinks Andrade will win the first round but Shevchenko will take over in the later rounds, using grappling to neutralize Andrade's offense. He notes Andrade is moving up in weight and may swing too hard early.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Valentina Shevchenko despite her recent loss, believing she will wrestle heavy like she did against Maia. He notes her odds are the best since 2017 and compares it to Amanda Nunes getting her belt back. He acknowledges Grasso's skills but thinks Shevchenko's adjustments will lead to victory. He has no bet yet due to PTSD from UFC 293.
Big Brady picks Shevchenko, arguing that she was winning the first fight until a mistake. He notes Shevchenko outlanded Grasso in most rounds and has more tools on the feet. He believes Grasso's takedown defense is still poor and that Shevchenko's experience and skill will prevail. He predicts a dominant decision, 49-46 or 50-45.
Cody picks Grasso at plus 140, emphasizing the five-year age difference and Shevchenko's decline. He points out that Grasso won the first round in their first fight, was out-striking Shevchenko, and submitted her after a spinning back kick. He believes the momentum was with Grasso and that Shevchenko's cardio may not hold up. He also notes the 90% rematch stat and says Grasso has a lot of merit.
Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko despite acknowledging the historical trend of long-reigning champions losing immediate rematches. He notes that submission losses are easier to recover from than knockouts, and he believes Valentina's decline may be overstated. However, he admits his bitterness over missing the plus-200 line on Grasso influences his pick, and he hopes he is wrong because he would like to see the division move forward with fresh matchups.
Shevchenko had a clear grappling advantage in the first fight, controlling rounds 2 and 3 before getting caught in the fourth. She should make adjustments, trust her striking more to set up takedowns, and bank rounds early. Grasso may have improved takedown defense, but Shevchenko's strength and experience should prevail. I'm hesitant because of the similarity to Usman vs Edwards 2, but I still favor Shevchenko by decision.
Paul sides with Grasso as a slight underdog, citing Shevchenko's age (35) and recent vulnerability in fights against Taylor Santos and Jennifer Maia. He notes Grasso's youth (30) and improvement, and mentions a 90% stat where younger challengers who beat an older champion win the rematch. However, he is hesitant because the fight is in Vegas, not Mexico, and he may not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso, having switched from Grasso. He rewatched the first fight and notes Shevchenko was winning on all scorecards before the submission. He believes Shevchenko will focus on grappling and avoid spinning back kicks. He compares it to the Nunes-Pena rematch, suggesting Shevchenko will be more focused. He predicts a 48-47 unanimous decision for Shevchenko.
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