Career Averages - Jesus Aguilar
Career Averages - Shannon Ross
Jesus Aguilar
Shannon Ross
Jesus Aguilar - Fight History
AJ picks Tsuruya, expecting him to dominate with high-level jiu-jitsu and positional grappling. He notes Aguilar is tough but basic, and Tsuruya's submission threat is real. AJ worries about Tsuruya's cardio but thinks he will either win by submission or decision, with a preference for a rear-naked choke finish.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya (referred to as Ryura), citing his high-level wrestling and control. He believes Luis Guruel (Jesus Aguilar) will fade due to two weight cuts in two weeks and jet lag, and that Tsuruya's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes Tsuruya may not score extremely well but is a decent lineup play.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya because he is a very good wrestler with great control and cardio. He notes that Luis Gurule just fought a full 15-minute war and is flying across the world, which will not help his cardio. Rei's only loss is to the current world champion Joshua Van.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya, trusting his wrestling control and ability to get the fight to the ground. He notes that Luis Gurule has been taken down many times before and still won, but he doesn't think that will happen here. He also questions Gurule's ability to perform after a short turnaround and travel. He believes Tsuruya's top control and cardio will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Rei Tsuruya by decision, noting Aguilar took the fight on short notice after fighting a week ago and absorbing over 100 significant strikes. He believes Tsuruya's wrestling and grappling are superior, and he will attempt many takedowns, similar to the Pichinin fight. He acknowledges Aguilar would be a live dog with a full camp but the circumstances favor Tsuruya.
Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, back-take specialist skills, and the favorable circumstances. He notes that Tsuruya was supposed to fight Jesus Aguilar, who beat Gurule, but now faces a short-notice opponent who just fought two weeks ago and is moving up to 135. Cody believes Tsuruya's takedowns and control will be effective, and Gurule's fatigue and travel will work against him.
Levi picks the underdog Aguilar, noting his anti-wrestling and ability to scramble. He thinks Tsuruya's standup is limited and Aguilar can sprawl-and-brawl to a decision. However, he acknowledges many 'ifs' regarding Aguilar's health and travel.
Jacob picks Rei because he is a relentless wrestler with a lifetime of wrestling experience. He expects Rei to get early takedowns and that Luis's defensive wrestling will drain his gas tank, leading to late takedowns for Rei. He compares it to Rei's fight against Carlos Hernandez.
Lucrative James picks Rei Tsuruya confidently, citing his slick grappling, unorthodox takedowns, and youth (23). He notes Jesus Aguilar's poor takedown defense and believes Tsuruya's creativity and scrambling will lead to a submission. He mentions Tsuruya's training with Cejudo and improvement since his loss to Joshua Van.
The host picks Aguilar on short notice, believing his cardio and scrambling ability will overcome Tsuruya's grappling. He notes Aguilar's experience against good grapplers and his tendency to not settle for bad positions. He expects Aguilar to defend takedowns early, work back to his feet, and land more damage as the fight goes into deeper waters.
The host picks Jesus Aguilar (referred to as 'Guru') over Rei Tsuruya, noting Aguilar's recent win and good grappling defense. He expects Aguilar to stop takedowns and outwork Tsuruya on the feet, winning on the scorecards in the later rounds.
Paul picks Tsuruya, noting his ability to get takedowns and control positions. He mentions Gurule's recent war and short notice, and that Tsuruya is a young prospect. Paul believes Tsuruya can find a submission or at least control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Rei Tsuruya to win by submission. He notes that Tsuruya is an elite freestyle wrestler with good grappling, and despite Aguilar's dangerous guillotine, Tsuruya is crafty enough to avoid those positions. He believes Tsuruya will get a submission, possibly similar to how Tatsuru Taira submitted Aguilar from a guillotine attempt.
The Guru believes Tsuruya's relentless grappling and fast start will win the first two rounds at a high clip. He notes Tsuruya's takedown volume and scrambling are excellent, while Aguilar has good cardio and could take the third round but likely loses a decision. He thinks Tsuruya wins 29-28 or 30-27.
The Guru picks Jesus Aguilar over Ray Borgia (Rei Tsuruya), favoring Aguilar's experience and aggressive striking. He doubts Borgia's ability to implement his grappling due to limited striking, and believes Aguilar can stuff takedowns and overwhelm Borgia on the feet. He notes Aguilar's submission threat as a bonus.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 62 of 148 | 41% | 69 of 156 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 31 of 106 | 29% | 42 of 120 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sumudaerji | 0 | 16 of 44 | 36% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 2 | Sumudaerji | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 10 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sumudaerji | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 31 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 12 of 44 | 27% | 16 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumudaerji | 62 of 148 | 41% | 44 of 116 | 11 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 55 of 141 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 31 of 106 | 29% | 12 of 63 | 8 of 24 | 11 of 19 | 30 of 105 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sumudaerji | 16 of 44 | 36% | 10 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 10 | 12 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sumudaerji | 17 of 47 | 36% | 9 of 32 | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 27 | 22% | 1 of 14 | 1 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sumudaerji | 29 of 57 | 50% | 25 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 12 of 44 | 27% | 7 of 30 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mudaerji (-278), Aguilar (+225)
Round 1
The early prelims wrap up with a classic matchup of China vs. Mexico in the flyweight division, as two men trying to build momentum in the currently logjammed division fight it out. Mudaerji (18-7, 5-4 UFC) finds himself on a win streak, while Aguilar (12-3, 4-2 UFC) did get his hand raised in his last time out as well. Gloves are touched before they are traded, with referee Chris Tognoni standing by.
Mudaerji, with a huge reach advantage, looks to take advantage of it with long kicks and even a spinning kick. Aguilar ducks the kicks and crowds his foe with an overhand right, but Mudaerji is out of the way in time. Mudaerji chops at the front leg of his opponent and sways past the looping counters, with Aguilar putting thunder into his hurls that have not connected yet. Mudaerji jams him up with a jump knee that bangs hard into the guard, and Aguilar grabs hold of the lead leg to take the fight down. Mudaerji puts his back to the fence to keep himself upright, and Aguilar grabs the fence to maintain position. Aguilar grinds but cannot get the takedown, and Mudaerji manages to wriggle out and stick out a left hand. When Mudaerji offers out a low kick, Aguilar grabs his cup and Tognoni calls time. They do not need long before resuming, as Aguilar wants to get right back into the thick of it.
Mudaerji walks Aguilar down and boots him in the face, strafing back to not get taken down in response. Mudaerji spins with a wheel kick that pounds into the guard, and Aguilar tanks it and winds up to throw haymakers that only end up with him off-balance. Mudaerji potshots with his range advantage, allowing Aguilar to charge him so that he can peck away. Aguilar scores at the end of a right hand, but his lands are few and far between as he struggles to find his distance. Mudaerji leans back to watch a spinning kick soar past him, and he chews up the front leg with his kicks. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, and Aguilar rushes towards him to take the fight down but falls victim to a counter throw. Mudaerji climbs on top with 25 seconds to go, landing a strike or two while backing off to stop a counter takedown. Both men stand up, and Aguilar charges recklessly to partially land a few blows before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Round 2
Aguilar is all smiles between rounds, pacing back and forth until he can go after the taller man again. They touch gloves, and he backs off rather than engaging. This allows Mudaerji to pick and poke away with jabs, follow-up left hands and kicks to anywhere he feels like striking. Aguilar is miles away from getting to him on the counter, and Mudaerji keeps him guessing by cracking him with check right hooks. Aguilar gets off a single inside low kick, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji revs up his volume again. Aguilar tries to take the fight down, and the Team Alpha Male rep chucks him to the floor like a side of beef. Mudaerji thwarts the sweep attempts to keep Aguilar on his back, smacking him with the occasional offensive burst but otherwise sticking the shorter man on his back.
Aguilar looks for butterfly hooks in hopes of pushing Mudaerji off of him, and he hacks with elbows off his back to stay busy. Mudaerji gets pushed off just enough so that Aguilar can explode back to his feet, where the Mexican gets to chasing the lanky flyweight down and missing with winging hooks. Mudaerji is easily able to parry and stick him with straight lefts and jabs, and he just misses on an intercepting uppercut. Mudaerji backs off Aguilar with his punches and plants a knee on the jaw, and he tries to follow with a head kick and stumbles. Mudaerji climbs back up and is chased down, and he grabs hold of Aguilar’s ankle and pulls him to the floor as the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Round 3
A glove touch opens the final round, with Mudaerji standing firm and putting punches on the Mexican athlete right out of the gate. Aguilar strikes back, but his momentum is used against him as Mudaerji throws him to his back. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow and nearly gets a back take while Aguilar scrambles, and he sweeps the leg to set Aguilar back down again. Aguilar hacks with elbows to the side of the head, leading to Mudaerji stepping over to sit on his face. Aguilar scrambles to his knees, and Mudaerji gladly takes his back and sucks him back down to the floor. Mudaerji ends up sliding off the back as he does not have a hook in, and Aguilar gets back to his feet and breaks off to belt Mudaerji in the face with a right hand. Mudaerji backs off, and Aguilar lines up another. Mudaerji gets some space, and he rifles off a left hand that makes Aguilar take a quick count of his teeth. Aguilar is swinging for the fences, and while he has found his range to a degree, Mudaerji is still able to shoulder-roll or otherwise take most of the sting out of the blows.
Mudaerji dances away from a low kick and lets loose a knee, but this is poorly timed as Aguilar tackles him to the mat. Mudaerji wraps up Aguilar’s shoulder to work himself upright, and he pushes Aguilar back and rushes to his preferred range. Mudaerji stabs a kick to the body and pops Aguilar with a combination, with Aguilar relying on head movement as his hands are low. Aguilar crowds his way forward to tie the Chinese athlete up, and Mudaerji answers with standing tomahawk elbows to the mouth. Mudaerji frames off with an elbow to the jaw, and he slashes open the bridge of the nose and spins with a flush kick to the body. Aguilar bites down on his mouthpiece and swings with everything he has, and Mudaerji decides to engage him in a slugfest. Mudaerji busts up Aguilar and eats some shots on the way back, and Aguilar stumbles and regathers himself to trade leather right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo acknowledges that Sumudaerji is the better striker with laser accuracy, but Jesus is gritty and tough. He notes Jesus has a clear grappling advantage but his takedowns are poor. He goes with his gut, picking the dog Jesus to make it ugly and stay in Sumudaerji's face, negating his footwork.
Big Brady picks Jesús Santos Aguilar as an underdog over Sumudaerji. He notes Sumudaerji is a good striker with a 4-inch height and 9.5-inch reach advantage, but has been submitted six times and can be hurt. Aguilar has improved striking, good wrestling (1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes), and next-level durability. Brady believes Aguilar can get the fight to the ground and submit Sumudaerji, predicting a third-round submission.
Cody also picks Sumudaerji, highlighting his length and striking. He notes Aguilar's difficulty closing distance and lack of wrestling. He expects Sumudaerji to win by decision or knockout.
Connor picks Sumudaerji hesitantly, citing his significant height and reach advantage. He notes that Aguilar is a submission threat and that Sumudaerji has been submitted six times due to his aggressive grappling. However, he believes Sumudaerji can win at range and that Aguilar's style is less effective against a long fighter.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jesús Santos Aguilar as a plus-230 underdog, citing Sumudaerji's history of being submitted and Aguilar's opportunistic guillotine. He believes Aguilar can make the fight dirty and drag Sumudaerji into a grappling exchange. Vreeland acknowledges Sumudaerji's striking advantage but sees value on the dog.
The host believes Sumudaerji should win easily due to his rapid improvement, technical striking, length advantage, and improved takedown defense. Aguilar is smaller, one-dimensional on the feet, and Sumudaerji should keep the fight standing and light him up. The host is considering using Sumudaerji in a parlay but notes he already has a big bet on Max Holloway.
James picks Sumudaerji, citing his higher level of competition and superior striking. He believes Sumudaerji's accuracy and sharpness will outpoint Aguilar, who relies on power and guillotine submissions. James notes that Aguilar's path to victory is narrow, requiring a takedown and guillotine, which Sumudaerji is prepared to defend. He predicts a decision win for Sumudaerji.
Sumudaerji is a superior striker with a 10-inch reach advantage. He can stick and move, counter Aguilar effectively, and defend takedowns. Aguilar will struggle to close distance and likely lose a decision. Sumudaerji by decision at +210 is a good prop, and he's a solid parlay piece.
Paul picks Sumudaerji, citing his reach advantage and improved takedown defense. He notes Aguilar's wins are over low-level opponents. He expects Sumudaerji to keep the fight at range and win by striking.
The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji, citing his reach and height advantage. He notes Sumudaerji's ability to outstrike at range and his recent win over Mitropoulos. He believes Aguilar lacks the finishing power to trouble Sumudaerji, predicting a decision win.
Zane picks Aguilar as a lean, noting that Aguilar keeps surprising him by winning fights he seems to be losing. He highlights Aguilar's athleticism and ability to scramble out of bad positions. He is concerned about Sumudaerji's reach but thinks Aguilar's physicality and submission threat could be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 85 of 235 | 36% | 87 of 237 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 65 of 186 | 34% | 73 of 195 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 12 of 49 | 24% | 12 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 20 of 65 | 30% | 20 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 22 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 30 of 97 | 30% | 32 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 39 of 80 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 85 of 235 | 36% | 35 of 164 | 25 of 43 | 25 of 28 | 76 of 224 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 65 of 186 | 34% | 43 of 157 | 12 of 18 | 10 of 11 | 59 of 174 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 35 of 73 | 47% | 12 of 47 | 12 of 15 | 11 of 11 | 30 of 67 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 12 of 49 | 24% | 5 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 20 of 65 | 30% | 9 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 19 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 20 of 64 | 31% | 10 of 51 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 30 of 97 | 30% | 14 of 71 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 27 of 93 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 33 of 73 | 45% | 28 of 65 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gurule (-220); Aguilar (+180)
Round 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Aguillar wastes no time firing a big right hand. Aguilar goes on the attack with power punches. A hard leg kick lands for Aguilar, who moves forward behind punches. A solid uppercut lands during that barrage. Aguilar lands a calf kick. Agular puts Gurule on the defensive with a flurry of punches, then follows with a series of knees to the body against the fence. Gurule retreats to the center of the cage. Aguilar rushes forward and finishes a combination with a knee to the gut. Gurule counters a low kick with a right hand. guilar with a low kick, but Gurule answers with a combination. Aguilar jabs the body. A right gets through for Gurule. Gurule moves forward with a long combination this time, and Aguilar answers with a takedown. Gurule returns to his feet and breaks free. Aguilar with a straight right to the body. Gurule fires a jab. Aguliar looks to clinch but Gurule shucks him off. Gurule lands a kick to the body. Aguliar puts the pressure on and lands a knee in the clinch before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 2
Aguilar gets an uppercut through his foe’s guard. An overhand right leads to the clinch, where Aguilar lands a knee in close. Gurule jabs the body, then moves in with a combination. Gurule lands the front kick to the body again. Another low kick lands for Aguilar. A counter left hook lands clean for Aguilar. Aguilar connects with a left hook in an ensuing exhange. Gurule continues to go back to the front kick. Aguilar lands a solid calf kick. Gurule blocks an overhand. Agular with a kick to the body, then avoids a counter offering from Gurule. Gurle jabs, then shucks off a takedown try from his opponent. Gurule lands a body kick. The pace is more methodical this round, which seems to favor Gurule. Aguilar kicks the leg then goes upstairs, but it’s blocked. An overhand by Aguilar doesn’t get through. Gurule lands a lead hand to the body. Aguilar changes levels and gets in deep on a takedown, but Gurule somehow defends it. Aguilar with an inside leg kick, and Gurule lands a right hand before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Round 3
The fight could be up for grabs in this round. Aguilar forces the action early, and he lands a combination. Gurule ducks a high kick, but an ensuing spinning kick to the body lands for the Mexican. Gurule punctuates a punching combination with a body kick. Aguilar makes Gurule buckle with a jab and drops him with a shovel hook. Aguilar tries to jump for a guillotine, but Gurule shoves him to the floor and tees off with ground-and-pound. Gurule works to the back, but Aguilar scrambles up. Gurule goes back to the front kick to the body. They clinch briefly, then separate. Gurule grabs a leg then lets it go to land a power shot. Gurule counters a low kick with a two-punch combination. Aguilar moves forward and lands a knee in the clinch. A right from Gurule lands clean. Aguilar swings wildly and makes Gurule move back with a left. Aguilar lands a knee in close and then a jab as he slides back. Aguilar goes low kick high kick. Augilar with another aggressive combination, and he snaps Gurule’s head back. Gurule lands some powerful punches of his own. Aguilar lands a couple jabs then shoots for a takedown. He spins to the back, but Gurule frees himself and the flyweights fire off offense in one last wild exchange before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Aguilar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Aguilar)
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Aguilar)
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Luis Gurule via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Luis Gurule, noting he is a light-on-his-toes striker with forward pressure and decent power. He says Jesus Aguilar is a solid grappler with a knack for guillotines, but is a one-trick pony. He thinks everyone knows Jesus is looking for the guillotine, so if you expect it, you can avoid it. He calls Jesus a very good dog and says he'll probably try to find a prop bet like win inside distance or decision no action for Jesus.
Big Brady picks Gurule as the much more well-rounded fighter with better striking and wrestling. He notes Aguilar's only threat is the guillotine, and if Gurule watches his neck, he should dominate. He predicts Gurule wins by decision, keeping the fight standing and picking Aguilar apart.
Despite Gurule's previous knockout loss, the host sees this as a winnable matchup. He believes Aguilar's power shots are telegraphed, allowing Gurule to avoid danger, apply pressure, and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks underdog Jesus Aguilar, disagreeing with Gurule being a -200 favorite. He notes Aguilar's stocky, dangerous style and ability to trouble opponents, citing his KO of Shannon Ross. He sees Gurule as unproven in the UFC, coming off a KO loss, and believes Aguilar has shown more ability across distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 60 of 96 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 9:22 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 35 of 87 | 40% | 41 of 95 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 23 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 29 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 33 of 81 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 11 of 30 | 36% | 6 of 20 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 35 of 87 | 40% | 26 of 75 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 31 of 76 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 8 of 26 | 30% | 4 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 28 of 75 | 37% | 21 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 67 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Estevam (-360), Aguilar (+285)
Round 1
A pair of fighters separated by about five months and five inches of height come to blows in the on-fire flyweight category. While he debuted with a win over Charles Johnson, inactivity has plagued Estevam (12-0, 1-0 UFC) as that victory came in November 2023 and he has not fought since. Since then, Aguilar (11-2, 3-1 UFC) has competed and prevailed on two separate occasions, giving him momentum leading up to their engagement. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes the sporting clap of hands from the fighters to get going. Aguilar says hello with a low kick, and he charges in with a looping left that allows him to close the distance. Estevam defends the throw setup and prevents Aguilar from tossing him, but the ensuing grappling results in Estevam somehow taking Aguilar’s back. The two jockey for position and threaten with submission setups, and Aguilar sells out for a takedown and winds up pulling Estevam on top of him instead. Estevam smothers from half guard, staying well busy enough to stave off Tognoni. The Brazilian fighter loops his foe’s legs beneath his to further trap him, but Aguilar still times an explosion to power back to his feet. Aguilar grabs hold of a guillotine choke and jumps for it, and he hooks his leg around the back but is unable to fasten the other. “Macapa” calmly works his way out of the sub and he remains on top, following Aguilar every time he tries to scramble. When Aguilar gets to his feet, Estevam has him from behind, and he hunts for a high back ride to drag his man down. Aguilar tries to shoot in, but Estevam controls him until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Round 2
Aguilar comes out of his corner like his hair is on fire, with a pair of looping hooks leading into a jump knee. Estevam catches the latter and tries to do something with it, but he lets it go and dives after a takedown. Aguilar is on his seat when defending it, with Estevam quick to lace the legs once more. Estevam sits up and the two slug it out from a seated position, with Aguilar’s back stuck against the wall as he spams elbows and punches with little on them. Estevam wrestles Aguilar back down and dings him with uppercuts, and every time he opens up, Aguilar fights to escape. Tognoni asks for more activity, and Aguilar stands up. Estevam chucks him back to the mat like a side of beef, and Aguilar climbs up, circles around and jumps for a guillotine choke. Estevam stuffs it and forces a 50/50 position, with Aguilar complaining that his glove is being grabbed. Estevam takes his foe’s back and clubs him in the side of the head, hitting a mat return when Aguilar fruitlessly works his way upright once more. Aguilar clings to any low-percentage move he can search for, while Estevam is running a wrestling clinic on him. Estevam wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he jumps from one side to the other to complete the maneuver. Aguilar turns to his stomach to prevent the submission from completing, and the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Round 3
Aguilar is the fast aggressor in the last round, putting hooks behind kicks behind more hooks. Estevam slows his foe down with a slew of front kicks, and Aguilar shrugs them off and charges with looping strikes before pursuing a takedown. Estevam shakes out of the tie-up, and Aguilar walks him down kicking him high and low. Aguilar punches his way into a level change, and Estevam stonewalls him and threatens with his own single. Aguilar stifles it, and the two break apart. Aguilar clubs his opponent with power punches that stun him, and he times a perfect knee when Estevam shoots on him. Aguilar lets him up and starts laying into the unbeaten fighter with massive swinging strikes. Aguilar throws himself off-balance, but he has done some solid damage and likely rocked Estevam on at least one occasion. Estevam keeps a stiff upper lip and is ready for counters, but Aguilar’s aggression is starting to give him issues. Estevam just dodges a huge left hook in time, and Aguilar sits down on a low kick and lunges forward with a jab. Aguilar punches his way into a takedown, where he puts Estevam on the mat but does not establish top control. Instead, Aguilar lets him up and punches him a few times, and he lets Estevam shoot so he can defend with a guillotine. Aguilar climbs on the back—an issue plaguing him several times tonight—and slides off almost immediately. Estevam relishes this opportunity so he can slow Aguilar down, with his sights likely more on surviving than actually trying to put Aguilar away. A few more lather-rinse-repeat takedowns and mat returns come from the Brazilian until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
The Official Result
Rafael Estevam def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Rafael Estevam, noting his high-pressure grappling and relentless takedowns. He acknowledges that Jesus Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but believes Estevam's offensive wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu defense will neutralize that threat. He trusts Estevam's cardio and thinks the odds are appropriate.
Big Brady picks Estevam by second-round submission, citing his dominant wrestling and ground game. Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but has 0% takedown defense and defensive holes. Estevam must be cautious of the guillotine but should get takedowns easily and eventually submit Aguilar.
Estevam is undefeated and this is a great opportunity for him to get back on track. He will get Aguilar's back and find a rear-naked choke finish within two rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Estevam over Jesus Aguilar, impressed by Estevam's grappling against Charles Johnson. He notes Aguilar has won in the UFC except for his debut loss, but believes Estevam's chain wrestling and ability to manipulate Aguilar's body will secure at least two rounds via grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicoll (-230), Aguilar (+190)
Round 1
In what might become a yearly stop for the UFC, the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, is playing host to the promotion today. Like UFC 284 last year, 2024’s UFC 305 package contains plenty of locals with favorable matchups that could result in some thrilling violence. Nine of the 12 fights tonight feature a competitor from or repping Australia or New Zealand, with one pitting an Aussie against a Kiwi, and the other two seeing a Chinese welterweight take center stage. We kick things off with a classic matchup of Australia vs. Mexico as Nicoll (8-0, 0-0 UFC) introduces himself to the organization with the crowd at his back. He battles the overweight Aguilar (10-2, 2-1 UFC), who hit the scales a pound and a half above the flyweight limit to surrender 20% of his purse to his opponent. The referee for the first fight of the night is Steve Perceval, and he kicks things off as the fighters touch gloves. Nicoll introduces himself with a leg kick effort, and his second is met with counters from the Mexican. Aguilar charges him, swinging fists and ultimately clinching up before suddenly grabbing the Aussie from behind. Nicoll responds with a kimura sweep that puts them both on the mat, and he flips around to take the back of his opponent and get hooks in. Nicoll opens up with powerful punches from both sides of the head, and he briefly flattens Aguilar out as he beats on him. Aguilar gets to his knees and spins himself around to put his back on the mat, and Nicoll does not mind this as he hacks down with elbows. Nicoll knees the belly when he sits postured up, and he lands a few punches but finds himself off-balance. Nicoll gets rolled upside-down, and he finds himself doing a handstand with Aguilar hanging on in an effort to throw him down. When Nicoll recovers, Aguilar jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and it is immediately tight.
Aguilar fastens his legs around the waist of his opponent, and Nicoll tries to slither his neck out but he is bone dry and trapped in a precarious position. Aguilar alerts Perceval that Nicoll may be out, and Perceval tests the resistance of Nicoll’s right arm. It flops to the ground. Perceval lifts the lifeless limb again before he intervenes, and he and Aguilar roll Nicoll to his back to demonstrate that Nicoll is completely unconscious with his eyes eerily stuck open.
Aguilar sits up and lifts the legs of his defeated opponent to flow the blood back to Nicoll’s cranium. Just like that, Nicoll has been ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten, and Aguilar has totally silenced the crowd. It may be disappointing to Aguilar that he has forfeited his opportunity to claim post-fight bonus money by missing weight, as that sleep-inducing submission might have been otherwise worthy of an extra check.
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Stewart Nicoll R1 2:39 via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Stewart Nicoll to win based on his wrestling advantage, believing Nicoll can get takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll is a 2-to-1 favorite against a tough opponent in Jesus Aguilar, who is dangerous with guillotines. Angelo notes that Nicoll is undefeated but untested at this level, similar to Danny Barlow last week, so he avoids betting but leans Nicoll.
Big Brady picks Stewart Nicoll to win by second-round submission. He notes Nicoll's wrestling and ground-and-pound are very good, and that Jesus Aguilar has 40% takedown defense and has been submitted in both of his losses. He believes the takedowns will come fairly easy for Nicoll, and once on top, his ground-and-pound can open up submissions. He acknowledges this is Nicoll's toughest test to date but is confident in his path to victory.
Cody is impressed with Nicoll's regional tape, noting his relentless takedowns, top control, and nasty elbows. He believes Aguilar has poor takedown defense and has been controlled by lesser wrestlers. Cody expects Nicoll to dominate and possibly submit Aguilar.
Daniel Vreeland picks Stewart Nicoll to win, expecting him to take Aguilar down and control the fight. He notes that Aguilar has poor takedown defense and low output, while Nicoll has good cardio, strength, and tenacity. Vreeland believes Nicoll will grind out a decision or submission.
The host leans to Nicoll, citing his technical superiority in all aspects of MMA against Aguilar. He notes Nicoll's grinding grappling approach and BJJ black belt, but acknowledges Aguilar's power and guillotine threat. He expects Nicoll to dominate and finish within two or three rounds, possibly by club and sub.
Paul likes Nicoll's wrestling and pace, and notes that Aguilar has been taken down by everyone who tried. He mentions Nicoll's submission threat and expects a finish. Paul calls Nicoll a legit prospect and believes the UFC gave him a favorable matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Jesus Aguilar. He notes that Aguilar is explosive but Nicoll is similarly sized and has a grappling style that pins opponents against the cage, dragging them down and controlling them on the ground. He criticizes Aguilar's wins over Menona and Shannon Ross, calling Ross an easy KO for everyone. He also mentions Nicoll's home country advantage in Australia. He expects Nicoll to control the fight with his grinding style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 38 of 62 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 4:51 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 43 of 90 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 16 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mendonca (-162), Aguilar (+136)
Round 1
The prelims roll on with the flyweights again, with Tachi Palace Fights vet Aguilar (9-2, 1-1 UFC) aiming to make it two in a row at the expense of the skidding Mendonca (10-2, 0-2 UFC). The Chute Boxe Diego Lima product made it to the UFC courtesy of 10 straight wins, only to run into brick walls of Javid Basharat and Nathan Maness to hand him a pair of losses. The two men with finish rates of 70% or above come together and touch gloves as referee Fernando Salas watches on, and they introduce themselves to one another with kicks. Aguilar kicks low, Mendonca kicks the body and presses all the way forward to scoop Aguilar off his feet. Aguilar fights back to his feet, and he resists a throw and pushes his foe against the fence to knee the thigh a few times. The pace slows to a crawl as Mendonca eventually tries to toss Aguilar to the mat, but he cannot keep him there for more than a second. Aguilar keeps grinding, and Mendonca sells out for a body lock takedown and an outside trip that succeeds in putting Aguilar down. Mendonca shifts quickly to side control, where he resides on top until Aguilar reverses him successful and starts bashing on top. Mendonca briefly threatens with a high guard, and Aguilar shakes out of it and scores some ground strikes while stacking Mendonca up. Mendonca hunts for a triangle choke, and Aguilar slams his way out of it at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 2
The second round opens tentatively, with both men pawing at one another from a safe range. Mendonca suddenly crashes the pocket and pursues a takedown, where he leverages Aguilar down to the mat. After some control time, Mendonca loses top position and Aguilar slings him down. The two scramble wildly, and Mendonca manages to take the back and start hunting for the neck. Aguilar turns to put his back against the fence, and Mendonca clings to him and bowls Aguilar over to move to half guard. The Brazilian practically jumps into full mount, and he unleashes a fury of right hands as Salas watches closely. Aguilar turns to his side and nearly gets pounded out, but he ends up surviving the assault and defend himself intelligently enough all while the crowd implores him to keep fighting. Aguilar jumps back to his feet with sheer force of will, and Mendonca tries to snatch up a guillotine choke. Aguilar pulls out of it, and he starts slugging. Aguilar hurts Mendonca in an exchange, and he shoots for a takedown instead of taking advantage of the damage. Aguilar relocates himself into full mount, and he starts slashing down with elbows. Aguilar postures up and smacks Mendonca around with strikes, and lowers himself down so as to not create openings to escape. Aguilar looks for more offense, and Mendonca use the moment to fight his way back to his feet. Mendonca shoots in from too far away, and Aguilar shoves him over and starts landing punches all while Mendonca elevates him. The frantic round ends with Aguilar in the air getting flipped over by his opponent.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 3
Aguilar swings for the bleachers to start off the round, and as Mendonca counters with a kick, Aguilar sprints towards him and knocks him over. On the way down, the Mexican snatches up a guillotine choke, and he tries to lock it down with full mount. By the skin of his teeth, Mendonca survives the submission and pushes Aguilar over, and he slides on top to move to half guard. Mendonca smothers from top control, opening up every so often to land a short right hand. Aguilar looks to hip escape or at least scoot himself to the fence, and Mendonca stifles him until Salas stands them up. Aguilar thanks the referee by going right to offense, swinging hard and stinging Mendonca. Mendonca throws back, and Aguilar answers with a level change. Mendonca uses the body lock to turn Aguilar around and chuck him to the mat like a basket of dirty laundry. A wild scramble ensues, and both men briefly take top position, until Mendonca winds up getting back control. Aguilar has one arm held tightly by his opponent, allowing Mendonca to drill him with punches from the free hand on the other side. Mendonca wraps up the body triangle and aims for the neck with a choke, and Aguilar hand-fights to stop the choke attempt. Mendonca allows Aguilar to turn so he can shift to full mount, but before he can rain down shots, Aguilar turns over. Mendonca locks down an unorthodox triangle choke as Aguilar does this, but time expires before anything comes of it. Based on previous tallies so far tonight, scorecards could be all over the map here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
The Official Result
Jesus Aguilar def. Mateus Mendonca via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mendonça, agreeing with the sportsbooks. He notes the wide variance between public and bookmaker opinion and sides with the books. He believes Mendonça is the more dangerous fighter on the feet and on the ground.
Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by third-round submission, but with low confidence as he has been flipping on this fight. He notes Aguilar has a 62-inch reach which is a concern, but he is a great grappler with decent wrestling. He criticizes Mendonça's poor fight IQ and submission-over-position style, and mentions that Mendonça is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, while Aguilar has been there for six weeks. He expects the fight to hit the mat where Aguilar can win grappling exchanges.
Cody picks Aguilar, calling Mendonça a 'goof' and questioning why he's a favorite. He notes Aguilar has cardio for days, a decent submission game, and has finished fights late. He thinks if Mendonça doesn't catch him early, Aguilar will tire him out and put a beating on him. He sees it as a good live betting opportunity.
The host is leaning towards Aguilar, believing his power punching style will keep Mendonça on the back foot. He thinks Aguilar is durable enough to handle Mendonça's technical striking and will push the pace to exploit Mendonça's cardio issues. He expects Aguilar to either grind with wrestling or find a finish in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Aguilar. He notes Mendonça looked lost in his last fight against Nate Maness, with a terrible game plan. Aguilar has cardio and submissions, and Mendonça's weight cut to 125 may be an issue. He thinks Aguilar can survive the initial onslaught and take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aguilar (-140), Ross (+120)
Round 1
The first of five combatants from the Oceanic region of Australia and New Zealand sets foot in the cage next, as Ross (12-7, 0-1 UFC) hopes to make the most of a second chance for his first impression. Similarly, Mexico’s Aguilar (8-2, 0-1 UFC) is also hoping to prevail in the Octagon for the first time in his sophomore effort. Something’s gotta give, and referee Jason Herzog will try his best to keep up with these two flyweights. The two charge at one another instead of touching gloves, and Aguilar is the aggressor as he swings a low kick first. Ross responds with a body kick, and he backs up.
Aguilar is on him like a dog chasing a hare, and he dips down, loops an enormous overhand right over the top, and completely short-circuits Ross. The back of the Aussie’s head clatters off the mat, and he is all the way gone.
Aguilar stands over his fallen foe, not throwing an additional strike because he knows his work here is done. Herzog shoves him out of the way, and Aguilar runs around the cage to elicit cheers from the crowd. The Mexican fans in the building, and the rest of the audience as well, goes crazy for the highlight-reel destruction. Aguilar has picked the perfect time to register his first career knockout, posterizing Ross and sending a message to the rest of the flyweight division. What a shot!
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Shannon Ross R1 0:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Aguilar but lacks confidence, noting that Ross is extremely hittable (9 significant strikes absorbed per minute). Aguilar is a solid grappler with a knack for guillotines, but can be wild. He thinks Aguilar will likely win by finish and expects the under on 2.5 rounds. He waits for props.
Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by second-round submission (guillotine). He notes that Aguilar has a deadly guillotine and nearly submitted Tatsuro Taira with it. He questions Shannon Ross's durability, as Ross has been knocked down multiple times and finished quickly in his UFC debut. He believes Aguilar will grab Ross's neck and submit him, as Ross is not UFC caliber.
Cody picks Aguilar but is not confident. He notes Ross has a terrible chin and has been finished many times. He thinks Aguilar's wrestling and durability will be key. He says it's a better live bet opportunity as Ross may have early success.
Connor picks Aguilar because Ross is a quadruple-A level fighter who cannot hang physically in the UFC. Aguilar is raw but explosive and aggressive, and Ross's lack of a complex game means he will likely get overwhelmed. However, Aguilar's poor technique could allow Ross to win a war, but Ross's durability issues make Aguilar the safer pick.
Daniel Levi picks Aguilar, arguing that Shannon Ross has a tendency to make average fighters look like world-beaters. He cites Ross's losses to Erceg and Vinicius Salvador as examples. Levi notes that Aguilar has a nasty guillotine choke and is aggressive in closing distance. He expects Aguilar to submit Ross, possibly by guillotine. Levi acknowledges that the line has moved due to sharp action on Ross but still prefers Aguilar.
James picks Shannon Ross to win by TKO in the third round, despite Aguilar never being knocked out. He thinks Ross pushes a heavy pace and will overcome early adversity. However, he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline, as he caps the fight near a pick'em and lacks a strong read. He notes Aguilar's dangerous guillotine choke but believes Ross's durability and striking will prevail.
Aguilar is a dangerous power puncher with a lethal guillotine choke. Ross is fragile and tends to panic under pressure. Aguilar will push forward, land big strikes, and force a desperation takedown from Ross, allowing Aguilar to latch onto the neck and secure a submission. The under 2.5 rounds is also a strong play.
Paul picks Ross as an underdog, noting Aguilar has never knocked anyone out. He thinks Ross's striking and cardio are good, and his chin may hold up against a non-power puncher. He mentions the UFC is giving Ross a favorable matchup. He takes a small flyer.
The MMA Guru picks Jesus Aguilar to win by TKO. He notes Aguilar's speed and awkwardness, and Ross coming off two KO losses. He believes Ross will hesitate, and at flyweight that is fatal. He also mentions Aguilar's guillotine threat but thinks his speed will be the key factor.
Zane picks Aguilar because Ross lacks the physicality and durability for the UFC, as shown by his loss to Oshkon Maktarian and knockout by Clinton Rodriguez. Aguilar is a raw but explosive athlete who can overwhelm Ross with aggression. However, Aguilar's lack of structure and poor wrestling could give Ross chances, but Ross's physical limitations are too big a liability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-1200), Aguilar (+800)
Round 1
Taira and Aguilar kick off the evening, with veteran referee Chris Tognoni assigned to keep things clean. Both men set up in orthodox stance, and Aguilar wastes no time in throwing a low kick that nearly takes Taira off his feet. Aguilar swarms and, in the ensuing collision, grabs a guillotine and falls to his back. Taira is in Aguilar’s half guard, on the far side. The angle isn’t great for the submission, but the choke is well under the chin and Aguilar is going for it. Taira remains calm, inching his way to the side. A minute and a half in, they’re still in the same position against the fence. Taira works on the hands, and halfway through the round he pops his head out and goes to work. Taira works to isolate the far arm while trying to pass guard. With 90 seconds left, Taira advances to full mount, trapping Aguilar’s left arm behind his neck briefly. Aguilar bucks to escape, and Taira lets him roll right to top position, cinching up a triangle choke as he does so. Aguilar fights the hold, but Taira switches to a triangle armbar and goes belly down, and the tap comes seconds later. Ice-cold ground work from the undefeated Okinawan.
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The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Jesus Santos Aguilar R1 4:20 via Submission (Triangle Armbar)
Big Brady sees Taira as a massive favorite with a huge reach advantage and superior striking. He expects Taira to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Aguilar, noting that Aguilar's only loss came by submission. He predicts a second-round submission win.
Cody picks Taira inside the distance, noting his elite grappling and ability to take the back. He thinks Aguilar is reckless and makes mistakes, and Taira will capitalize with a submission. He expects the fight to end in the first or second round, likely by rear-naked choke or armbar.
Connor agrees, noting that Aguilar is a physical force but that Taira's positional dominance and grappling will take over. He points out that Taira has shown patience and poise in critical situations, and that Aguilar's wild style will lead to grappling exchanges where Taira is superior. He also comments that the odds are too wide.
Paul picks Taira inside the distance, emphasizing his superior grappling and fight IQ. He notes Aguilar's tendency to give up his back and make mistakes. He expects Taira to dominate on the ground and finish with a submission, likely in the first two rounds.
Zane picks Taira despite acknowledging that Aguilar is a tough, aggressive fighter who could surprise him on the feet. He notes that Taira has shown durability and excellent grappling, with tight positional control and the ability to survive dangerous positions. He believes Aguilar's tendency to force grappling exchanges will play into Taira's strengths.
Shannon Ross - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park Hyun-sung | 2 | 50 of 124 | 40% | 65 of 154 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Shannon Ross | 0 | 47 of 115 | 40% | 61 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Park Hyun-sung | 1 | 24 of 48 | 50% | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Shannon Ross | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Park Hyun-sung | 1 | 26 of 76 | 34% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Shannon Ross | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 34 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park Hyun-sung | 50 of 124 | 40% | 33 of 101 | 11 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 36 of 88 | 6 of 14 | 8 of 22 |
| Shannon Ross | 47 of 115 | 40% | 25 of 88 | 9 of 12 | 13 of 15 | 46 of 107 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Park Hyun-sung | 24 of 48 | 50% | 17 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 13 |
| Shannon Ross | 16 of 39 | 41% | 10 of 30 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 34 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Park Hyun-sung | 26 of 76 | 34% | 16 of 61 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 57 | 2 of 10 | 2 of 9 |
| Shannon Ross | 31 of 76 | 40% | 15 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 31 of 73 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Park Hyun-sung, though he is not high on him. He notes that Shannon Ross has an atrocious chin and gets knocked out by anyone. Cody points out that Ross was knocked out by Jesus Aguilar, who had no prior KOs. He thinks Park, even as a grappler, can land a shot and finish. Cody is interested in Park by submission at plus money but acknowledges the knockout prop is also possible. He feels forced to pick Park because Paul would never let him hear the end of it if Ross loses quickly.
Paul picks Park Hyun-sung emphatically. He states that Shannon Ross has one of the worst chins in UFC history and cannot take a punch. Paul notes that Ross was knocked out by Jesus Aguilar, who had no prior KOs. He believes anyone against Ross is live to win by knockout. Paul is not interested in the moneyline due to the price but thinks there is value on Park by submission or KO props.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aguilar (-140), Ross (+120)
Round 1
The first of five combatants from the Oceanic region of Australia and New Zealand sets foot in the cage next, as Ross (12-7, 0-1 UFC) hopes to make the most of a second chance for his first impression. Similarly, Mexico’s Aguilar (8-2, 0-1 UFC) is also hoping to prevail in the Octagon for the first time in his sophomore effort. Something’s gotta give, and referee Jason Herzog will try his best to keep up with these two flyweights. The two charge at one another instead of touching gloves, and Aguilar is the aggressor as he swings a low kick first. Ross responds with a body kick, and he backs up.
Aguilar is on him like a dog chasing a hare, and he dips down, loops an enormous overhand right over the top, and completely short-circuits Ross. The back of the Aussie’s head clatters off the mat, and he is all the way gone.
Aguilar stands over his fallen foe, not throwing an additional strike because he knows his work here is done. Herzog shoves him out of the way, and Aguilar runs around the cage to elicit cheers from the crowd. The Mexican fans in the building, and the rest of the audience as well, goes crazy for the highlight-reel destruction. Aguilar has picked the perfect time to register his first career knockout, posterizing Ross and sending a message to the rest of the flyweight division. What a shot!
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Shannon Ross R1 0:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Aguilar but lacks confidence, noting that Ross is extremely hittable (9 significant strikes absorbed per minute). Aguilar is a solid grappler with a knack for guillotines, but can be wild. He thinks Aguilar will likely win by finish and expects the under on 2.5 rounds. He waits for props.
Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by second-round submission (guillotine). He notes that Aguilar has a deadly guillotine and nearly submitted Tatsuro Taira with it. He questions Shannon Ross's durability, as Ross has been knocked down multiple times and finished quickly in his UFC debut. He believes Aguilar will grab Ross's neck and submit him, as Ross is not UFC caliber.
Cody picks Aguilar but is not confident. He notes Ross has a terrible chin and has been finished many times. He thinks Aguilar's wrestling and durability will be key. He says it's a better live bet opportunity as Ross may have early success.
Connor picks Aguilar because Ross is a quadruple-A level fighter who cannot hang physically in the UFC. Aguilar is raw but explosive and aggressive, and Ross's lack of a complex game means he will likely get overwhelmed. However, Aguilar's poor technique could allow Ross to win a war, but Ross's durability issues make Aguilar the safer pick.
Daniel Levi picks Aguilar, arguing that Shannon Ross has a tendency to make average fighters look like world-beaters. He cites Ross's losses to Erceg and Vinicius Salvador as examples. Levi notes that Aguilar has a nasty guillotine choke and is aggressive in closing distance. He expects Aguilar to submit Ross, possibly by guillotine. Levi acknowledges that the line has moved due to sharp action on Ross but still prefers Aguilar.
James picks Shannon Ross to win by TKO in the third round, despite Aguilar never being knocked out. He thinks Ross pushes a heavy pace and will overcome early adversity. However, he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline, as he caps the fight near a pick'em and lacks a strong read. He notes Aguilar's dangerous guillotine choke but believes Ross's durability and striking will prevail.
Aguilar is a dangerous power puncher with a lethal guillotine choke. Ross is fragile and tends to panic under pressure. Aguilar will push forward, land big strikes, and force a desperation takedown from Ross, allowing Aguilar to latch onto the neck and secure a submission. The under 2.5 rounds is also a strong play.
Paul picks Ross as an underdog, noting Aguilar has never knocked anyone out. He thinks Ross's striking and cardio are good, and his chin may hold up against a non-power puncher. He mentions the UFC is giving Ross a favorable matchup. He takes a small flyer.
The MMA Guru picks Jesus Aguilar to win by TKO. He notes Aguilar's speed and awkwardness, and Ross coming off two KO losses. He believes Ross will hesitate, and at flyweight that is fatal. He also mentions Aguilar's guillotine threat but thinks his speed will be the key factor.
Zane picks Aguilar because Ross lacks the physicality and durability for the UFC, as shown by his loss to Oshkon Maktarian and knockout by Clinton Rodriguez. Aguilar is a raw but explosive athlete who can overwhelm Ross with aggression. However, Aguilar's lack of structure and poor wrestling could give Ross chances, but Ross's physical limitations are too big a liability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 14 of 22 | 63% | 8 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 14 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kleydson Rodrigues | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 14 of 22 | 63% | 8 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 14 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Kleydson Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that Shannon Ross is a tough, hittable fighter who will apply constant pressure. He worries that Rodrigues might fold under pressure and lose a close decision, as in his previous fight. He expects Ross to headhunt for the home crowd, which could play into Rodrigues' hands.
Big Brady acknowledges Ross's potential but thinks Ross is hittable and not durable. He likes Rodrigues' power and striking, predicting a second-round knockout. He notes that Ross had health issues in his last fight but still expects Rodrigues to get back on track with a finish.
Cody picks Rodrigues but is wary after Rodrigues lost as a -360 favorite against CJ Vergara. He notes Rodrigues has takedown defense issues and fights to the level of his opponent. He thinks Ross has durability problems after being dropped three times by Vinicius Salvador. He considers the under on rounds or fight doesn't go to decision.
Connor picks Rodrigues, believing in his potential and power. He notes that Ross is hittable and has durability issues, and that Rodrigues has the power to hurt him. Connor acknowledges that Rodrigues looked timid against Vergara but still threw heat all fight. He thinks Rodrigues can win via athletic cheating, possibly landing a wild kick after losing the first round.
Ross can replicate Vergara's game plan: crash the pocket, pressure, and grapple. Rodrigues has cardio issues when pressured and prefers kicking from distance. Ross's forward pressure and big punches should wear Rodrigues down as the fight goes on. Durability is a question for Ross, but Rodrigues isn't a heavy hitter with his hands. Ross likely wins a decision after a tough first round.
Paul picks Rodrigues but is not confident. He notes Ross's poor durability and the fact that Ross lost to Vinicius Salvador as a favorite. He thinks Rodrigues has better grappling and volume, but the -320 price is too high. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a potential play.
The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues over Shannon Ross, criticizing Ross's entry into the UFC after a loss on the contender series. He believes Rodrigues is dangerous on the feet and will find a TKO finish, possibly a head kick in the first round. He notes Ross has been submitted early in his career.
Zane picks Ross, citing Rodrigues' inexperience and rough style matchup. He notes that Ross is aggressive and will stay in Rodrigues' face, finding wrestling opportunities, while Rodrigues has not learned to deal with pressure and tends to fire off kicks when pressured. Zane acknowledges that Ross is not impressive but thinks Rodrigues is not ready yet.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo picks Aguilar but lacks confidence, noting that Ross is extremely hittable (9 significant strikes absorbed per minute). Aguilar is a solid grappler with a knack for guillotines, but can be wild. He thinks Aguilar will likely win by finish and expects the under on 2.5 rounds. He waits for props.
Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by second-round submission (guillotine). He notes that Aguilar has a deadly guillotine and nearly submitted Tatsuro Taira with it. He questions Shannon Ross's durability, as Ross has been knocked down multiple times and finished quickly in his UFC debut. He believes Aguilar will grab Ross's neck and submit him, as Ross is not UFC caliber.
Cody picks Aguilar but is not confident. He notes Ross has a terrible chin and has been finished many times. He thinks Aguilar's wrestling and durability will be key. He says it's a better live bet opportunity as Ross may have early success.
Connor picks Aguilar because Ross is a quadruple-A level fighter who cannot hang physically in the UFC. Aguilar is raw but explosive and aggressive, and Ross's lack of a complex game means he will likely get overwhelmed. However, Aguilar's poor technique could allow Ross to win a war, but Ross's durability issues make Aguilar the safer pick.
Daniel Levi picks Aguilar, arguing that Shannon Ross has a tendency to make average fighters look like world-beaters. He cites Ross's losses to Erceg and Vinicius Salvador as examples. Levi notes that Aguilar has a nasty guillotine choke and is aggressive in closing distance. He expects Aguilar to submit Ross, possibly by guillotine. Levi acknowledges that the line has moved due to sharp action on Ross but still prefers Aguilar.
James picks Shannon Ross to win by TKO in the third round, despite Aguilar never being knocked out. He thinks Ross pushes a heavy pace and will overcome early adversity. However, he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline, as he caps the fight near a pick'em and lacks a strong read. He notes Aguilar's dangerous guillotine choke but believes Ross's durability and striking will prevail.
Aguilar is a dangerous power puncher with a lethal guillotine choke. Ross is fragile and tends to panic under pressure. Aguilar will push forward, land big strikes, and force a desperation takedown from Ross, allowing Aguilar to latch onto the neck and secure a submission. The under 2.5 rounds is also a strong play.
Paul picks Ross as an underdog, noting Aguilar has never knocked anyone out. He thinks Ross's striking and cardio are good, and his chin may hold up against a non-power puncher. He mentions the UFC is giving Ross a favorable matchup. He takes a small flyer.
The MMA Guru picks Jesus Aguilar to win by TKO. He notes Aguilar's speed and awkwardness, and Ross coming off two KO losses. He believes Ross will hesitate, and at flyweight that is fatal. He also mentions Aguilar's guillotine threat but thinks his speed will be the key factor.
Zane picks Aguilar because Ross lacks the physicality and durability for the UFC, as shown by his loss to Oshkon Maktarian and knockout by Clinton Rodriguez. Aguilar is a raw but explosive athlete who can overwhelm Ross with aggression. However, Aguilar's lack of structure and poor wrestling could give Ross chances, but Ross's physical limitations are too big a liability.
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