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Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 35
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
5.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.22 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
34.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
4.39 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.36 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.73 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Dricus du Plessis
Moneyline
FanDuel +300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
FanDuel +1000
Robert Whittaker
Moneyline
Caesars -330
KO/TKO
BetWay +130
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +240
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 37 of 47 78% 529 of 567 12 of 17 70% 0 0 21:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 131 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:47
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 2 0% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 5 80% 79 of 81 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:47
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 19 of 22 86% 156 of 164 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:46
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 6 66% 76 of 85 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:26
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 20 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 9 of 12 75% 87 of 100 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 13 of 29 44% 10 of 24 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 37 of 47 78% 28 of 36 3 of 5 6 of 6 12 of 19 0 of 0 25 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 5 80% 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Dricus du Plessis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 19 of 22 86% 19 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 22
4 Dricus du Plessis 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 20 50% 8 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)

Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.

"I am going to pick Hamzot, though. I think the skill gap is wider than most people think it is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.

Chimaev by submission, round 1
"Give me Hamzad to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.

Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237; du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202
"I think Khamzat Chimaev is going to be champion by the end of the week. And I'm pretty certain of that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.

submission within two rounds
"I think he's going to struggle with the wrestling top control and submission game of Chamay, which should lead to Hamzat earning that gold and finding the submission within two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.

TKO round 3 or 4; Dricus du Plessis wins by TKO up against the cage; less than 21.5 round one significant strikes for du Plessis (from PrizePicks segment)
"I think Drikus is going to survive round one and finish him. Driers has Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. I think he has the right mindset for this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.

du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202; Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237
"I'm still going to pick Dricus. I just think it's fun to pick Dricus. I want Dricus to win."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 147 of 314 46% 149 of 316 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 128 of 263 48% 128 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 79 49% 39 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 21 of 66 31% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 36 of 64 56% 36 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 147 of 314 46% 50 of 193 45 of 59 52 of 62 147 of 314 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 128 of 263 48% 90 of 212 29 of 41 9 of 10 128 of 263 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 20 of 45 44% 5 of 25 6 of 10 9 of 10 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 16 of 49 32% 10 of 41 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 60 51% 7 of 31 7 of 10 17 of 19 31 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 54 53% 15 of 35 8 of 13 6 of 6 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 79 49% 11 of 46 14 of 15 14 of 18 39 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 24 of 47 51% 18 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 21 of 66 31% 13 of 54 5 of 7 3 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 28 of 51 54% 23 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0 28 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 36 of 64 56% 14 of 37 13 of 17 9 of 10 36 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 31 of 62 50% 24 of 54 6 of 7 1 of 1 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.

I think these odds are wide I like I think the opener was a lot more accurate
"gimme drus here I think is going to win a close and competitive decision in this one once more and and uh yeah drus SP decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.

Same odds as Zane. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I just trust Dricus to make an adaptation and I trust Sean Strickland to never ever do that."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.

"So who youall got in the rematch between dricus dupy and Sean Strickland going down this weekend at UFC 312"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.

decision
"I think if Strickland can pick it up a little bit more he should be able to utilize his pace and his pressure as effectively as we've seen him do in the past and that will allow him to really …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.

Dricus du Plessis opened at -190, currently -196; Strickland opened at +167, currently +172. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I think you basically have to pick Dricus."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 173 of 408 42% 183 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 137 of 354 38% 140 of 358 6 of 11 54% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 34 of 75 45% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 18 of 51 35% 19 of 52 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:28
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 62 35% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 87 35% 31 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 85 38% 34 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:18
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 53 of 99 53% 53 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 35 of 86 40% 35 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 173 of 408 42% 157 of 387 10 of 15 6 of 6 173 of 408 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 137 of 354 38% 81 of 283 32 of 37 24 of 34 134 of 348 3 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 34 of 75 45% 28 of 67 2 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 18 of 51 35% 8 of 38 3 of 3 7 of 10 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 62 35% 20 of 59 1 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 26 of 60 43% 11 of 42 9 of 9 6 of 9 25 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 87 35% 29 of 84 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 84 34% 13 of 64 10 of 12 6 of 8 28 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 85 38% 32 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0 33 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 73 39% 22 of 62 4 of 6 3 of 5 28 of 69 1 of 3 0 of 1
5 Dricus du Plessis 53 of 99 53% 48 of 93 4 of 5 1 of 1 53 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 35 of 86 40% 27 of 77 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)

Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)

The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.

Will monitor line movement; may bet on du Plessis
"I am going to lean drus here I think if we're looking at the two of these Fighters we're looking at their skill sets and their body of work"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.

first or second round knockout
"I'm going drus by first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.

Strickland late (round 4 or 5) at +1500 and +2100 respectively
"I think Sean Strickland wins... it's a good fight that Sean Strickland wins down the stretch."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.

"I'm picking DDP too and I will say you know for a lot of people they're like oh I still worried about the cardio because he gased out in like one fight early in his UFC span and I don't …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.

"I took him in the spot at plus 125 I put two units on it um I think it should be a pick them"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.

"I'm gonna take a guy who we is he good Gumby is DDP good yet I know he beat Robert Whitaker but is he good Crush crushed Robert Whitaker I'm taking he decimated Robert Whitaker this is I think a …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.

"my prediction is going to be dricker dupy retains his title and he's going to win the fight via decision or or by KO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.

round 4-5 TKO, decision victory
"give me Sean Strickland R for round five TKO and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.

du Plessis round 1 KO at +1000, du Plessis KO at +300, Strickland round 4 at +1500, Strickland round 5 at +2100
"Strickland will be the official pick but I think the prop side is how I'm going to attack this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.

TKO, round 2
"drias dupi in my opinion is going to win this fight by TKO or submission I see this happening at some point in the second round or maybe late in the first"
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
WIN vs Derek Brunson
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
WIN vs Brad Tavares
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 82 of 150 54% 98 of 167 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:01
Brad Tavares 0 113 of 212 53% 123 of 222 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 13 76% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
Brad Tavares 0 14 of 26 53% 23 of 35 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:18
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Brad Tavares 0 39 of 75 52% 39 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 78 50% 40 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 60 of 111 54% 61 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 82 of 150 54% 55 of 113 21 of 31 6 of 6 69 of 132 12 of 16 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 113 of 212 53% 79 of 169 17 of 21 17 of 22 97 of 192 14 of 18 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 13 76% 8 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 9 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2
2 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 59 55% 19 of 41 10 of 14 4 of 4 28 of 52 5 of 7 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 39 of 75 52% 28 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 8 33 of 66 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 78 50% 28 of 62 9 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 72 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 60 of 111 54% 41 of 89 10 of 12 9 of 10 55 of 106 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.

"I do think i'm leaning towards dracus here this is a no bet fight for me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.

du Plessis by first round knockout
"give me duplicity to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.

"I'm gonna go with the places to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.

Missed the line; no bet at -155; would have bet at plus money.
"my pick is drika's duplicity... i missed the line on drikas... minus 155 i'm no longer interested"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.

du Plessis by KO at +165 to +185
"i think i'm going to end up on the duplex c side here i do think uh his speed will eventually catch up to tavares"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.

"I'm going with two pluses to get the job done as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.

submission in round 2
"i can see him getting a guillotine finish over brad tavares in the second round of this contest"
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
SCHED vs Nikita Krylov
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 66 of 142 46% 70 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Reinier de Ridder 0 67 of 145 46% 192 of 282 2 of 15 13% 0 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 16 of 38 42% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
3 Robert Whittaker 1 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Reinier de Ridder 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
4 Robert Whittaker 0 6 of 22 27% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Reinier de Ridder 0 14 of 24 58% 37 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:56
5 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 18 50% 73 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 66 of 142 46% 62 of 135 4 of 7 0 of 0 51 of 123 4 of 5 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 67 of 145 46% 41 of 105 26 of 40 0 of 0 54 of 128 9 of 11 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 20 of 34 58% 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 15 of 35 42% 6 of 19 9 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 30 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 9 of 27 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 16 of 38 42% 12 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Robert Whittaker 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 13 of 30 43% 10 of 24 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
4 Robert Whittaker 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 14 of 24 58% 10 of 18 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 11 of 31 35% 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Submission (face crank) R1 3:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Second leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it misses.
"hamzat is going to be the pick he is the second leg of that villain parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

first round submission; live bet on Whittaker if fight reaches third round
"I'll go chamaya first round submission I think it's a great live bet spot though if this fight reaches the second and a half uh the round and a half mark the third round I would take a look at …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

"I'm going with Robert Whitaker as well but I'm looking to live bet after the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"I am going to be a sucker and pick Whitaker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

submission (rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke)
"I'm calling either a rear naked choke or a Dar choke finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

inside the distance
"I think jayv is going to get the W here probably inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Whittaker wins by decision or late finish (rounds 4-5)
"I like Whitaker here to pull off the upset"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

"give me the guy with you know the former champion in this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

TKO fourth round
"I'm going with Robert Whittaker getting this one done TKO fourth round finishes Chimaev who's gassed out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

"I picked wittaker going in so i have to eat a little crow but even picking wittaker my feeling was look wittaker when he loses he absolutely melts down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"Yeah, me too. We're really setting ourselves up."
KO (punches) R1 1:49 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.

No bet due to short notice concerns
"I think rram wins this fight not confident enough to bet on it I wish the odds were wider so I could but I am going to pick rram here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.

"I got to go Whitaker here there's no way I can I can pick against Whitaker it's a show me spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.

"I gota go with Robbie Knuckles to uh to get a win here but I'm expecting it to be a competitive main event that you're going to be puckered up in because I mov is a first round knockout guy"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.

"I'm gonna go Robert Whitaker here but proceed with caution because again when Fighters are I don't know if I want to call it the Twilight of his career because again he's only 33"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.

No bet placed
"I'm going rram here but I'll be honest I I haven't bet it you I still respect Bobby and you know that short notice and you know five rounds and I haven't eded yet but as a pick I'm going …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.

Aliskerov by decision (dog money)
"I see rram doing the exact same thing I think it goes to decision because I think Rob's tough I think Rob can hang in there I think rro by decision dog money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.

"I can't really back him at this price until he kind of proves against a higher level of competition that he belongs in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.

"I am going to go with Whitaker I believe in Whitaker here if he loses it will change my entire opinion on MMA so we'll see."
WIN vs Paulo Costa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 95 of 175 54% 95 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 67 of 151 44% 67 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robert Whittaker 0 32 of 55 58% 32 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 95 of 175 54% 63 of 143 4 of 4 28 of 28 95 of 172 0 of 3 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 67 of 151 44% 39 of 117 8 of 12 20 of 22 67 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 38 of 62 61% 26 of 50 1 of 1 11 of 11 38 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 27 of 49 55% 16 of 38 4 of 4 7 of 7 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 32 of 55 58% 20 of 43 3 of 3 9 of 9 32 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 26 of 54 48% 16 of 43 2 of 3 8 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 25 of 58 43% 17 of 50 0 of 0 8 of 8 25 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 14 of 48 29% 7 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 74 of 166 44% 74 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 33 of 116 28% 38 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 22 of 56 39% 22 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 14 of 41 34% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 10 of 45 22% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Robert Whittaker 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 9 of 30 30% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 74 of 166 44% 49 of 138 6 of 9 19 of 19 72 of 163 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 33 of 116 28% 15 of 94 7 of 10 11 of 12 33 of 116 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 22 of 56 39% 15 of 48 1 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 14 of 41 34% 6 of 33 5 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 25 of 53 47% 17 of 43 3 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 10 of 45 22% 4 of 36 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 27 of 57 47% 17 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 8 25 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 9 of 30 30% 5 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Moneyline bet placed at -235; line moved to -300s; likely decision win
"whitaker is an easy pick here he's going to be faster have the far cleaner striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

"i think whitaker does does win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Whittaker wins by decision
"I'd take Robert Whittaker... the over under set 280 I think to the over and yeah I think this thing's going a decision so if you want to try to improve that 210 price tag on Robert Whittaker almost certainly …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

Fight goes to decision; Vettori by KO at +1200 (mentioned by co-host)
"I'm gonna go Whitaker but I'm just sketched about it because at some point I think that drop-off will come I just don't know when it's gonna be"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Whittaker by decision (minus 105)
"Give me Bobby Knuckles via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the dogma of inventory to pull off the upset here... I think marvin vittorio obviously is only three years younger but it's like in terms of like robert whittaker's 31 with city miles."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Whittaker wins by decision 30-27
"i think the main problem that vettori has is talent and skill"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to be the Aussie getting his hand raised."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."