Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
Dricus du Plessis
Robert Whittaker
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
AJ picks Dricus du Plessis to knock out Kamaru Usman. He believes du Plessis's awkward striking, power, and improved takedown defense will be key against the 39-year-old Usman, who has been inactive and has bad knees. He expects du Plessis to land a big overhand or body kick and finish in the middle rounds, possibly after surviving some early grappling.
AJ picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his punching power, takedown defense, and cardio. He believes du Plessis will stop Usman's takedowns and land big overhands, potentially knocking out the aging Usman. AJ notes du Plessis's chaotic style and ability to change the fight in an instant, while Usman's best days are behind him.
AJ backs Du Plessis, citing his power, forward pressure, and offensive wrestling. He notes Usman's inactivity and age (39) and believes Du Plessis can hurt him late. AJ acknowledges Du Plessis's defensive wrestling flaws but thinks his toughness and motivation (Africa rivalry) will carry him.
AJ picks Dricus du Plessis by KO, believing his awkward power and size advantage will overwhelm an aging Usman. He notes Usman's wrestling may control early, but DDP's never-say-die attitude and looping shots will find a home later. He is not confident in the odds but sees DDP as the pick.
Angelo picks DDP because he believes DDP's brute force, size, and relentless pace will overwhelm Usman. He notes that DDP can shoot his own takedowns and won't wait, and if he fights like he did against Strickland, he wins clearly. He acknowledges Usman's path via wrestling but thinks DDP is too big and strong.
Angelo picks DDP but is hesitant to bet. He notes DDP's brute strength and cardio, but acknowledges Usman's wrestling could cause problems, as seen in DDP's fight against Khamzat Chimaev where he was taken down 12 times. He thinks DDP's strength advantage will overcome any skill gap, but he's not confident enough to bet the moneyline, instead considering a round line over.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting that many are on Usman but the line is moving toward Dricus. He argues that Usman's win over Joaquin Buckley was not dominant and that Usman is nearly 40 with bad knees. He believes Dricus will stuff takedowns and get back up easily since Usman lacks submission threat, unlike Khamzat Chimaev. He is considering Dricus moneyline if the odds improve, or inside the distance/KO props.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting Usman's age (39) and knee issues. He believes du Plessis will do better work on the feet and that Usman won't be able to hold him down. He predicts a decision win, citing Usman's durability.
Cody acknowledges Kamaru Usman's stylistic advantages like a good jab and wrestling, but leans heavily on Dricus du Plessis due to age (Usman is 39), size, and Dricus's proven takedown ability against top competition. He notes Dricus is younger, has held the belt, and matches physicality, making him the play despite Usman's tempting plus money.
Connor picks Usman despite acknowledging the size disadvantage, because he trusts Usman's wrestling and game planning more than du Plessis's ability to improve. He notes that du Plessis's mindset of fighting out of bad positions rather than preventing them is a fundamental flaw that may not be fixable. He also points out that Usman's jab and relentless takedown ability could wear down du Plessis even if Usman gets tired. However, he admits that if du Plessis were welterweight size, he would pick Usman in a heartbeat.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis to win, citing age advantage (du Plessis entering prime vs Usman near 40) and du Plessis's year off to recover and improve his get-up game. He believes du Plessis's awkward, violent striking will eventually overwhelm Usman, predicting a late second or third round finish. He notes Usman's stiffness on the feet and declining durability, while acknowledging du Plessis's wrestling vulnerabilities but expecting him to survive takedowns.
Usman is a massive underdog at +190, and the host believes these odds are insane. Du Plessis's takedown defense and ground game were exposed badly against Khamzat Chimaev, where he looked like a white belt. Usman is one of the best MMA grapplers ever and has elite cardio. The host sees no reason why Usman can't replicate Chimaev's performance, giving Usman at least a 40% chance of winning, which provides a 7% margin over the bookie.
Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to win by knockout, citing du Plessis's power, athleticism, and durability advantages as the fight goes later. He notes that Kamaru Usman is aging and has shown a deteriorating chin, while du Plessis has more tools on the feet and better cardio for a five-round fight. However, he believes the odds are too wide and considers betting on Usman or the fight not going to decision.
Usman's wrestling and durability should be the difference; he can grind out du Plessis by landing takedowns and controlling the fight. du Plessis has shown vulnerability to strong grapplers like Khamzat Chimaev, and Usman is a similar style fighter with proven cardio. At plus money, Usman is a strong value pick to win a decision.
The host notes Usman's durability and believes his transition to 185 lbs will be successful due to his frame. He expects Usman to get to his wrestling game, wear down du Plessis, and win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing volume and Dricus's ability to control on the mat, unlike Usman who hasn't shown that type of control. He mentions Dricus could get a good jump early, so live betting is not a cop-out. He prefers Dricus moneyline but isn't overly excited about it.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Kamaru Usman, citing du Plessis' youth, power, and five-round experience. He believes Usman cannot keep du Plessis down like Khamzat did and that du Plessis will wear on Usman with body and low kicks. He predicts a TKO in round three.
Zane picks du Plessis primarily due to size advantage, noting du Plessis is much bigger than Joaquin Buckley and that Usman's wrestling success against Buckley may not translate to holding down a larger opponent. He also questions Usman's durability at age 39 and the sustainability of his wrestling-heavy approach. However, he acknowledges Usman's wrestling credentials and the possibility that du Plessis hasn't improved his defensive wrestling since the Chimaev fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 45 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 37 of 47 | 78% | 529 of 567 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 21:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 131 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 79 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 19 of 22 | 86% | 156 of 164 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 76 of 85 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 19 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 87 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 29 | 44% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 37 of 47 | 78% | 28 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 19 of 22 | 86% | 19 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 10 of 20 | 50% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)
Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.
Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.
Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.
The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.
The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.
Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 147 of 314 | 46% | 149 of 316 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 128 of 263 | 48% | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 39 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 21 of 66 | 31% | 23 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 147 of 314 | 46% | 50 of 193 | 45 of 59 | 52 of 62 | 147 of 314 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 128 of 263 | 48% | 90 of 212 | 29 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 20 of 45 | 44% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 16 of 49 | 32% | 10 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 60 | 51% | 7 of 31 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 19 | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 54 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 39 of 79 | 49% | 11 of 46 | 14 of 15 | 14 of 18 | 39 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 24 of 47 | 51% | 18 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 21 of 66 | 31% | 13 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 28 of 51 | 54% | 23 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 36 of 64 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 36 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 31 of 62 | 50% | 24 of 54 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.
Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.
Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.
Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 90 of 197 | 45% | 99 of 206 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 97 of 203 | 47% | 105 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 75 | 41% | 31 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 90 of 197 | 45% | 61 of 155 | 7 of 13 | 22 of 29 | 80 of 184 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 97 of 203 | 47% | 63 of 165 | 26 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 92 of 198 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 52 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 37 | 43% | 10 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 25 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 17 of 30 | 56% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 75 | 41% | 22 of 63 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 40 of 83 | 48% | 25 of 66 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 24 of 45 | 53% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.
Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.
Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.
Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.
The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.
Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 173 of 408 | 42% | 183 of 419 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 137 of 354 | 38% | 140 of 358 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 39 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 19 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 87 | 35% | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 33 of 85 | 38% | 34 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 73 | 39% | 31 of 75 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 53 of 99 | 53% | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 35 of 86 | 40% | 35 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 173 of 408 | 42% | 157 of 387 | 10 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 173 of 408 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 137 of 354 | 38% | 81 of 283 | 32 of 37 | 24 of 34 | 134 of 348 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 34 of 75 | 45% | 28 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 18 of 51 | 35% | 8 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 62 | 35% | 20 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 26 of 60 | 43% | 11 of 42 | 9 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 87 | 35% | 29 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 84 | 34% | 13 of 64 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 33 of 85 | 38% | 32 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 73 | 39% | 22 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 28 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 53 of 99 | 53% | 48 of 93 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 35 of 86 | 40% | 27 of 77 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)
Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.
Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.
Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.
Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.
Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.
Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.
I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-400), du Plessis (+300)
Round 1
Depending on the outcome of this fight, a title fight at 185 pounds may be the reward. Former champ Whittaker (24-6, 15-4 UFC) will try to hold the line and earn another crack at Israel Adesanya, while the surging Du Plessis (19-2, 5-0 UFC) is hoping to shock the masses. The two have up to 15 minutes to figure things out, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. The gloves are touched, and Whittaker moves on the outside and tosses up a head kick. Du Plessis responds with a low kick, and he backpedals when Whittaker comes at him with a one-two. Du Plessis reaches with a kick to the midsection, and he walks into a leg kick and misses the mark on a counter. Whittaker chops at his lead leg and comes over the top with a right hand, and he splits the guard with a left. The former champ leans back from a head kick, and he evades a looping left hook that follows. Whittaker doubles up on the jab and intercepts a kick to crack the South African with a left hand. The jab from Whittaker disrupts the oncoming Du Plessis, and he checks a leg kick. Du Plessis has another kick checked, and he takes an awkward step back. Whittaker punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Du Plessis defends with a guillotine choke as he falls to his back. Whittaker steps to the left side to easily shake off the choke, and he looks to establish top position. Du Plessis fights his way back to his feet with the wall behind him, and he fires out a front kick that misses the mark. Whittaker reaches him with a right hand, and he gets surprised with a check right hook. Whittaker flicks out a few jabs, and he swings a left and a low kick. Du Plessis chains a few punches together to make Whittaker bounce off the cage wall, and Whittaker ricochets off of it to get his own strikes off. Du Plessis times a knee up the middle when Whittaker ducks down, and he kicks right into Whittaker’s shin. Whittaker connects with a few left hands to mark up Du Plessis’ nose, and he absorbs a flush calf kick. The two crash together, and Du Plessis grabs hold of the former champ with a head lock and throws Whittaker to the floor. Du Plessis threatens with a potential brabo choke, and he releases the grip to slash down with an elbow that rips open a cut on Whittaker’s temple. Du Plessis passes guard with 20 seconds to go, and he sets up another brabo choke with seconds to go. When that fails, Du Plessis postures up and lays into Whittaker with punches and elbows to put an exclamation point on the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center to open up the second round with a glove touch, and Whittaker is ready to get his jab going early. When Du Plessis kicks low, Whittaker throws high with a left hand and a head kick. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, shutting down the offense mid-swing from Du Plessis. Whittaker blocks a pair of speedy punches, and he stomps down with a kick to the knee. The two come together and Whittaker raps his man on the chin with a right hand. Whittaker absorbs a jab and responds with two back, and he chains it into an overhand right. Du Plessis walks into a left hook, and he has one more leg kick checked. Whittaker reaches his man with a head kick, and he takes a body kick right back. Whittaker slings a left hook and a calf kick, and he leans back from the counters that buzz past his beard. Whittaker springs in with two lefts and gets away before a counter can find the target. Du Plessis reaches out with a straight right hand that frazzles the former champ, who drops down to his knees in rough shape. Du Plessis is surprised at his handiwork, and he does not capitalize immediately. When Whittaker wobbles back to his feet, Du Plessis is on him now. “Stillknocks” drills Whittaker with a long series of punches to the body and head, and it is a right to the body that puts Whittaker firmly in the danger zone. Whittaker collapses to a knee, and Du Plessis swarms him with a ferocious combination that pummels “Bobby Knuckles” and puts him away once and for good. This is an enormous upset, and a phenomenal performance for the immediate title challenger. The victory is so stunning that champ Adesanya approaches UFC President Dana White to request an in-cage challenge. The UFC strikes while the iron is hot, stating that Du Plessis will indeed challenge Adesanya for the belt in Sydney in a few months. When they come together in the cage, things do not go well, as Adesanya hurls racial epithets and tries to draw a reaction out of his prospective opponent and “African brother.” Adesanya shouts about Du Plessis’ African DNA, and commentator Joe Rogan is just along for the ride at this point. The fighters jaw at one another until the promotion decides to move on, and the two are separated. This awkward exchange does not, however, take away from the accomplishment of Du Plessis, who put an incredibly durable Whittaker away with style points.
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Robert Whittaker R2 2:23 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 37 of 84 | 44% | 43 of 90 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:30 |
| Derek Brunson | 1 | 71 of 115 | 61% | 84 of 132 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:28 |
| Derek Brunson | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Derek Brunson | 1 | 62 of 101 | 61% | 68 of 108 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 37 of 84 | 44% | 27 of 71 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 74 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Derek Brunson | 71 of 115 | 61% | 55 of 97 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 53 of 95 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 12 of 23 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Derek Brunson | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 25 of 61 | 40% | 16 of 50 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Derek Brunson | 62 of 101 | 61% | 49 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 50 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.
Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.
Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.
Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.
Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.
Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 58 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 86 of 147 | 58% | 117 of 197 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 5:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 60 of 85 | 70% | 82 of 126 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:56 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 19 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 35 of 70 | 50% | 26 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 86 of 147 | 58% | 69 of 123 | 4 of 7 | 13 of 17 | 28 of 59 | 25 of 40 | 33 of 48 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 60 of 85 | 70% | 54 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 38 | 31 of 41 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 18 of 33 | 54% | 12 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 11 of 25 | 44% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 16 of 34 | 47% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.
Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.
Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.
Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.
Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.
Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
AJ is excited for Whittaker at light heavyweight, calling him a new mythical fighter. He believes Whittaker will be fast and strong at 205 and sees a pathway to gold there, unlike at middleweight where Chimaev and Du Plessis block him.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker by knockout in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and power will increase at 205, and that his karate-based striking and footwork will be too much for Krylov, who he considers washed. He expects Whittaker to fend off takedowns and land hard counters.
AJ picks Whittaker to win by knockout, emphasizing his speed advantage and superior technique. He believes Whittaker's footwork and striking will be too much for Krylov, who has shown a weak chin recently. AJ notes that Whittaker's move to light heavyweight should benefit him, and that Krylov's offensive wrestling won't be a factor.
AJ is confident in Robert Whittaker in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and precision will be too much for Nikita Krylov, who has been knocked out recently. He expects a stoppage, possibly by knockout, and sees Whittaker as a contender at 205.
AJ believes Robert Whittaker will be faster and cleaner, and expects him to look good. He likes the moneyline at -135 and thinks Whittaker is live for a KO at +230. He notes Krylov has a suspect chin and expects Whittaker to win by knockout, possibly over 1.5 rounds.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker, believing he is live for the finish and that Krylov is washed. He thinks Whittaker at light heavyweight will be a beast and that Krylov has no path to victory.
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker despite concerns about the weight move. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter everywhere—faster, cleaner striking, better wrestling. He thinks Krylov is not elite and Whittaker should win. He is surprised the odds are close and thinks Whittaker's skills will overcome the size disadvantage.
Angelo thinks Whittaker is the better fighter and should win, but questions the move to light heavyweight. He notes Whittaker was a welterweight and never a big middleweight, and that Krylov will be much larger. He believes Whittaker's skill will overcome the size disadvantage.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He questions which fighter is more washed and concludes it's Krylov, noting Krylov's age, wars, and lack of wrestling recently. He acknowledges Whittaker's recent losses but believes he is still skilled and will be the better striker. He is concerned about Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and size disadvantage but thinks he can land a big shot on Krylov's suspect chin.
Big Brady leans towards Whittaker but is not confident. He calls it the '1800 gambler fight of the week' between two washed fighters. He notes Whittaker is moving up to light heavyweight and will be undersized, but Krylov has looked awful and no longer grapples. He thinks Whittaker is the better striker and might have better durability, but doesn't love the current -210 price. He might consider Whittaker by KO if the line is good.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -120 for 1.5 units. He notes both fighters are chinny and have been finished multiple times, and Krylov is one of the most violent fighters in the division with a high finish rate. He sees multiple ways the fight can end early, including a knockout from either side or a submission from Krylov. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Cody picks Whittaker, arguing that Krylov lacks heart and is a glass cannon. He believes Whittaker's experience and skill will overcome the weight jump, and that Krylov's wild style leaves openings. He notes Whittaker has fought bigger guys before.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov for the upset, questioning why the odds are not closer to pick'em. He notes that both fighters are past their prime, but Krylov has the size advantage and is an opportunistic finisher. Levi is concerned about Whittaker's chin and his move up to light heavyweight, believing Krylov's power and size could be decisive.
Jacob picks Robert Whittaker but worries about his chin and the power jump to light heavyweight. He notes that Krylov is chinny and Whittaker has blitzes down the middle that could knock him out. He placed a bet on Whittaker inside the distance because Krylov is hittable. He is cautious about the weight move but believes Whittaker is the better fighter.
Lucrative James picks Nikita Krylov via KO, comparing Whittaker's move to light heavyweight to Chris Weidman's failed attempt. He believes Whittaker's chin won't hold up against the size and power of a natural light heavyweight, and that Krylov's physicality will be too much. He notes Whittaker's skill advantage but expects a knockout finish inside the distance.
The host notes that Whittaker's odds have moved from -190 to -125, making it a more bettable line. He expects Whittaker's speed to be the difference, finding the chin early and often to secure a knockout.
The host leans with Whittaker's speed and power to find Krylov's chin for a knockout, but has low confidence due to Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and questions about durability and size. He would need a better price than -190 to bet.
Paul picks Whittaker but is very hesitant due to the move to 205 and Whittaker's age and recent performances. He notes Krylov's wildness and questionable chin, but worries about Whittaker's durability and power translation.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by KO in the first or second round. He believes Whittaker's technical striking and speed will be too much for Krylov. He notes that Krylov's only path to victory is power and aggression, but Whittaker can defend that. He predicts Whittaker will catch Krylov with a lead left hook as Krylov throws a high kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 66 of 142 | 46% | 70 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 67 of 145 | 46% | 192 of 282 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 37 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 73 of 83 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 66 of 142 | 46% | 62 of 135 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 51 of 123 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 67 of 145 | 46% | 41 of 105 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 128 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 34 | 58% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 15 of 35 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 9 of 27 | 33% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 16 of 38 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 28 | 71% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 6 of 22 | 27% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-150); de Ridder (+120)
Round 1
There is one more fight on the docket today, and it should be a good one. Former champ Whittaker (26-8, 17-6 UFC), dead set on one final run at the middleweight throne, will have to get through de Ridder (20-2, 3-0 UFC) to start it off. This interesting stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Marc Goddard, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue instructions and elicit a glove touch. They touch gloves. It’s time for some action.
De Ridder strikes first with an awkward front kick, and he turns to the side to avoid the Whittaker blitz. Whittaker throws a kick that is caught, and he bounces off his knees on the floor and then drives home a few short uppercuts on the inside before getting his leg back. De Ridder hangs on to Whittaker in the tie-up, and an oddly angled stalemate ensues with both men not willing to make a mistake. “RDR” plants a couple knees to the body to force Whittaker to push him away, and Whittaker resets and lunges and tags the Dutchman with a one-two. The punches from Whittaker cause some damage on the inside corner of de Ridder’s left eye, and he targets the same spot with long, sharp jabs. “RDR” fails badly on a takedown shot, with Whittaker easily staving off the attempt and lashing out with a leaping left hook. Whittaker stays in the center of the cage, looking for his left hand.
Whittaker connects with a left and a right on the underdog, and he clips him a second time and marks his nose up. De Ridder attempts a kick, and Whittaker swats it away and backs him off with long punches. A labored shot from “RDR” is easily stuffed, and he follows it with a front kick. Whittaker shuts him down, taking a knee as he circles away that slow him enough to allow de Ridder to grab hold of him. Whittaker breaks free with 90 seconds to go, where his jab off the temple rattles de Ridder. De Ridder responds with a head kick that is blocked in time. Whittaker’s lunging left hands reach the target more often than not, and his follow-up right hand is money. When “RDR” commits to a kick, Whittaker tags him with a right hand to stop it from going anywhere. De Ridder steps in with two big knees, and Whittaker retaliates by wrapping a left hand around his head. Whittaker catches his man at the end of a right hand, and he blocks two front kicks as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner with his hands by his waist, looking for ways to dart in. He sneaks in a long left, and when countered, he slips and recovers. De Ridder whiffs on a left hook, with Whittaker able to back him away with a check left hook. Whittaker tries to catch him on the other side with a kick, and when that misses, he jabs and is ready to stuff the takedown that comes. They crash together, and de Ridder takes the worst of an uppercut that spins him around. Whittaker crowds the Dutchman, picking his shots carefully and not staying in the same place long to get caught. De Ridder does wing a left hand at him that partially lands, and Whittaker is quick to move and sway. Whittaker gets off a left up top as “RDR” attacks him with a one-two, and he allows de Ridder to approach him and go for a knee so he can fire off a right hand. De Ridder jabs his way forward, and Whittaker ducks and cracks him with a right hand.
De Ridder stabs out a right hand and plants his knee on Whittaker’s chest, and Whittaker responds with a left hook. De Ridder nails his foe with another knee up the middle, with his momentum carrying him into a successful takedown. “RDR” searches for a submission quickly, and Whittaker recovers to guard and uses butterfly hooks to get enough space to get out. De Ridder drops down a number of left hands on the bloodying nose of his opponent, all while imposing his weight on top and getting to half guard. Whittaker recovers back to guard, moving and swaying to evade the shots from above. De Ridder elbows his foe in the stomach, and he jams Whittaker up with an elbow on the face as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 3
Whittaker bounces around to start off the round, looping a left hand partially around the raised guard to start. “RDR” fakes a takedown shot and nails the former champ with a knee, and his second knee gets Whittaker’s attention and drives him back. Whittaker is against the ropes, figuratively speaking, and he unloads a mighty right hand in response that sends de Ridder crashing to the floor. Whittaker hovers over the Dutch fighter, blasting him with ferocious ground-and-pound as Goddard watches on closely. De Ridder manages to work his way to his feet, where he initiates a clinch and leans on Whittaker to catch their breath. Whittaker wants out of the tie-up, countering a knee with an overhand right. The shot from the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” fails, with Whittaker able to stop this attempt and reply with a one-two. De Ridder replies in kind. Whittaker tags de Ridder coming in with a right, and both men are wearing it and sucking wind at the midpoint of the third round.
Whittaker comes up just short of his right hand, and de Ridder tackles him to the floor with relative ease. De Ridder starts smothering as he slowly moves into half guard, keeping his weight down on the former champ to force him to remain flat on his back. De Ridder pops over to side control, and Whittaker turns to pull him back to half guard. Whittaker nearly scrambles well enough to escape, but de Ridder’s top control prevents him from getting out. De Ridder lowers himself down to set up a brabo choke, looping his arm under the armpit and letting it go when Whittaker is wise to it. De Ridder holds on, grinding his elbow down but not striking with much. De Ridder sits on top to lower a few elbows down, and it will be interesting to see if the ground control of “RDR” swayed judges to award it in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 4
Reaching the championship rounds, it is de Ridder who starts off pushing the pace. Whittaker stabs out a left hand while “RDR” steps in with a knee, using the forward movement to tie Whittaker up. De Ridder attempts and fails to complete a body lock takedown, setting for leaning against the former champ. Whittaker bails out of it and puts a one-two on the chin, and his right hand intercepts a step-in knee from his opponent. De Ridder pursues the clinch again, and Whittaker hand-fights and absorbs a single knee to the gut before getting out. De Ridder shoots from a wide berth, and Whittaker stuffs it, but de Ridder is once more clinging to him. De Ridder winds up to bop the Aussie on the nose with a shoulder strike, and he replicates it but sacrifice throws himself to the floor. Whittaker stands back rather than dealing with the grappler in his element.
Whittaker dances out of the way of long jabs and knees, popping de Ridder with a solid left hand. Both men score single power punches until de Ridder walks Whittaker to the fence to force him to carry his weight. When Whittaker escapes, he barely is able to slide past a head kick. De Ridder flicks out a jab, and he fakes a kick and lands another. Whittaker retaliates with a few punches down the middle, and the big left hand that lands on him does not budge him. Whittaker bounces off the fence and looks for a left hook, and it is de Ridder who hits him harder with a stern knee. De Ridder wings a right hand that stumbles the former champ, and he throws a follow-up so hard that he nearly falls over. Whittaker reaches out with a few inaccurate punches, ending the round by catching de Ridder with a short right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 5
It could be all tied up going into the fifth frame, and Whittaker appears the fresher of the two. He springs into action behind long, rangy jabs. By pouncing in and out, Whittaker is able to get away from most counters. De Ridder manages to get him back with a left hand, but Whittaker scores several more and fights out of a single. Whittaker ducks down and cracks de Ridder with a right hand, and de Ridder ties him up and pushes him to the wire. Whittaker tries hard to escape, not allowing de Ridder to take him down, but he otherwise eats short strikes that are counting. Whittaker breaks off and watches a high knee go past him, but de Ridder uses this to close the distance. Whittaker again gets out, and he thinks about a kick but does not have enough in the tank. He does lunge forward with a left, and “RDR” retorts with a trip that Whittaker is able to bounce down and up to recover. Whittaker elbows his man to break away.
The former champ sticks jabs in his foe’s face, and de Ridder goes back for the clinch. A knee from “RDR” does land to the side, and after a brief stalemate, Whittaker fights out of it and rips a right hand to the midsection. Whittaker goes to the same spot again, and de Ridder bops him with a few jabs and drills him with a right hand. De Ridder uses a knee to close the distance so he can tie the ex-champion up, and the fans do not love the approach of the Dutch fighter. Whittaker stands his man up by stopping a takedown and clipping him with a right hand. De Ridder reaches down for a takedown, partially lands a knee and backs up to the wall. “Bobby Knuckles” kicks his man in the face, and de Ridder ties him up. Whittaker is desperate to get out of this, even trying to catch a knee to turn out. He is stuck against the fencing until time has elapsed, and it could go either way.
Having won against one of the biggest names in the division, de Ridder has one name in mind: champ Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will be squaring off against Khamzat Chimaev in a few weeks, so his dance card is full. When “RDR” does fight again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (48-47 Whittaker)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder (48-47 de Ridder)
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Robert Whittaker via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.
Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)
Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.
Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.
Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.
Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.
Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.
Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.
The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.
Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.
Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-142), Aliskerov (+120)
Round 1
The main event of “UFC Saudi Arabia” sees former middleweight champ Whittaker looking to stay in the title picture, as he faces short-notice opponent Aliskerov, who stepped up for the ailing Khamzat Chimaev and finds himself with the opportunity of a lifetime, in position to jump the line at 185 pounds. Drawing the final referee assignment of the evening is Marc Goddard. They touch gloves and set up in matching orthodox stances, and Aliskerov reaches out with a high front kick that comes up short. Whittaker scores with a right leg kick. Aliskerov throws a body kick that Whittaker parries with his arm. Whittaker ducks into range with a double jab. Whittaker blisters Aliskerov with a short right hand, then a left. The Dagestani goes staggering back and Whittaker follows up with a head kick that doesn’t land perfectly, but does damage as well.
“The Reaper” lives up to his name, claiming Aliskerov’s soul with a crushing right uppercut
. Aliskerov drops in place, and only one or two follow-up blows get through before Goddard is there for the stoppage. Fantastic work from “Bobby Knuckles.”
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Ikram Aliskerov R1 1:49 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.
Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.
Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.
JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.
Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 95 of 175 | 54% | 95 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 67 of 151 | 44% | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 95 of 175 | 54% | 63 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 172 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 67 of 151 | 44% | 39 of 117 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 22 | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 38 of 62 | 61% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 27 of 49 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 32 of 55 | 58% | 20 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 26 of 54 | 48% | 16 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 58 | 43% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-225), Costa (+185)
Round 1
For the co-main event, the particulars of this middleweight matchup are extremely close. Separated by four months in age, one inch in both height and reach—but not both for one man—and very similar takedown defense rates, Whittaker (24-7, 15-5 UFC) vs. Costa (14-2, 6-2 UFC) appears to be a quite well-matched fight. Both men do prefer to end fights via knockout, but it has been since 2017 for the former and 2018 for the latter to procure a stoppage via strikes. Knowing this could go the long haul but be quite a fun one, referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat. Both men are incredibly intense and do not touch gloves, and instead they go right after it. Perhaps having studied the strategy of Israel Adesanya against Costa, Whittaker goes right to low kick after low kick. Costa throws back with a left hand that reddens up Whittaker’s cheek, and he blocks a big high kick in the nick of time. Costa checks a leg kick, but Whittaker continues to target the lead wheel. Costa attacks another head kick, and Whittaker sees it coming and defends it, but the sheer impact knocks him to the side. Costa’s power punches redden up Whittaker’s face, and Whittaker goes after another kick down low. Costa partially checks it, and his leg begins to swell. Whittaker dips back to counter a lunging Costa with a big right, and when Costa strikes back, Whittaker beans him with a left hook. Costa stuns Whittaker with a straight left hand, but Whittaker rushes at him and tags him with a few punches. Costa smiles and laughs, and Whittaker punches him in the face again a few times. Whittaker blitzes with a right hand and a harsh calf kick, and Costa is struggling to plant on the lead leg after about three minutes as his shin swells. Costa prepares to check another kick, and he leans to the proper direction as a blazing fast right hand from the Aussie soars past him. Costa eats a sharp jab and walks into a second, and he flicks out a power jab in response. Whittaker charges with a right down hand down the middle, and Costa smiles. “Bobby Knuckles” scores a low kick on one leg, and when Costa switches stances, Whittaker lands one on the other side. Costa allows Whittaker to crowd him with offense so he can dig some body shots, but he does not escape unscathed as Whittaker targets him up top. Whittaker kicks him in the chest with a side kick, and Costa spins suddenly with a wheel kick that rings the former champ’s bell. Whittaker, hurt and wobbled like a baby deer, bites down on his mouthguard and swings for the fences. The round ends with the two middleweights brawling, and that single power strike might have stolen the Brazilian the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
Whittaker comes out of his corner no worse the wear, and his sea legs appear to be beneath him. Whittaker goes after low kicks and connects with a few punches up top. Costa responds with his own calf kick and a right hand, and he zooms up a head kick from his lead leg that slams into Whittaker’s guard. Costa snaps the head back with a jab, and Whittaker gives him two back to think about. Whittaker kicks Costa upside the head, and Costa eats it and sticks his tongue out. Costa connects with a vicious leg kick, and Whittaker’s lead leg is welting up as well. Whittaker responds immediately with his own calf kick, and a responding jab from Costa busts up the former champ’s nose. Costa keeps pushing out the jab, intercepting Whittaker until his thumb slides out and jabs into Whittaker’s eye. Costa smiles sheepishly, and Whittaker gets a pause. Whittaker wants to get right back to it, and he drives kicks into Costa’s lead leg on the restart and swings hard up high. Costa continues to jab up his foe’s bloody mug, but Whittaker is outlanding him and doing so with power. Whittaker rolls his shoulder to move with a punch, and he staggers Costa with a right hand and a thudding calf kick. Whittaker winds up with a power right hand, and a left that follows gives Costa further pause. Whittaker delivers a vicious kick to the same spot, and he unloads with a combination that knock Costa’s head around like a heavy bag. Costa waves him on, but Whittaker does not bite and instead settles back down to chipping and working on the lead leg. Costa goes up high twice with two kicks that are blocked, and he hops back to avoid the brunt of a leg kick and a right hand. Whittaker gets off a side kick to the torso, and Costa prods out a jab to back Whittaker off. Costa whips a kick right by Whittaker’s beard, and he absorbs a flush low kick that makes his leg wobble. Whittaker hits Costa with everything he has, but the Brazilian just absorbs it and smiles. Costa wanders forward, but the round ends before he can reach out with anything.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 3
The last round opens with Costa running out to the center of the cage, and he lets go with a one-two. Whittaker shrugs it off and powers out a pair of jabs. Costa jabs the body back, and he swipes out with a calf kick that breezes past the front leg. Whittaker darts out with a left hook that lands on the temple, and the two clash with kicks at the same time. Whittaker’s jab is finding its home, and his leg kick does as well. Costa connects with a stern low kick, and Whittaker crowds him and cracks him with a huge right hand. Costa goes back to the leg kick, and Whittaker bounces back away from the looping shots that come at him. Costa drives a knee to the chest to get Whittaker’s attention, and they crash together and disengage. Whittaker checks a kick and stumbles Costa with a left hook, but Costa recovers himself and eats another left hand. Whittaker races forward with a fierce right hand, and Costa’s chin is granite as he takes these shots that would fell heavyweights. Costa takes a hard leg kick and points at the groin to draw a brawl, and Whittaker does not throw his game plan in the trash and swing recklessly. They trade leg kicks, and Costa pushes out a front kick. Whittaker reaches out with two left hands, and he blocks a head kick that flies at him. Whittaker gets off another swiping left, and he pokes a jab out to follow before nearly kicking out Costa’s lead leg. Costa strikes with a jab, and Whittaker does the same and dips a hook. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, and Costa is right there in his face to jab him back. Costa attempts another spinning wheel kick, but he misses, and Whittaker makes him pay with a short combination. Whittaker lashes out with another brief combo, and they both unleash fiery kicks that land at the same time. These two are going strike for strike as time ticks off the clock in this absolute blood and guts affair, and the damage from Whittaker’s blows have finally drawn some blood. Whittaker wings a left hand, and his leaping strikes find the mark as he backs off to avoid counters. Costa walks through a few left hands, and he fires off a high kick. Whittaker shoots for a takedown, bails on it, and comes up top with two mighty hooks. Both middleweights raise their arms after a terrific hard-fought battle, and time expires. This was worth the wait.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (29-28 Whittaker)
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Paulo Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.
Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.
Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.
Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-400), du Plessis (+300)
Round 1
Depending on the outcome of this fight, a title fight at 185 pounds may be the reward. Former champ Whittaker (24-6, 15-4 UFC) will try to hold the line and earn another crack at Israel Adesanya, while the surging Du Plessis (19-2, 5-0 UFC) is hoping to shock the masses. The two have up to 15 minutes to figure things out, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. The gloves are touched, and Whittaker moves on the outside and tosses up a head kick. Du Plessis responds with a low kick, and he backpedals when Whittaker comes at him with a one-two. Du Plessis reaches with a kick to the midsection, and he walks into a leg kick and misses the mark on a counter. Whittaker chops at his lead leg and comes over the top with a right hand, and he splits the guard with a left. The former champ leans back from a head kick, and he evades a looping left hook that follows. Whittaker doubles up on the jab and intercepts a kick to crack the South African with a left hand. The jab from Whittaker disrupts the oncoming Du Plessis, and he checks a leg kick. Du Plessis has another kick checked, and he takes an awkward step back. Whittaker punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Du Plessis defends with a guillotine choke as he falls to his back. Whittaker steps to the left side to easily shake off the choke, and he looks to establish top position. Du Plessis fights his way back to his feet with the wall behind him, and he fires out a front kick that misses the mark. Whittaker reaches him with a right hand, and he gets surprised with a check right hook. Whittaker flicks out a few jabs, and he swings a left and a low kick. Du Plessis chains a few punches together to make Whittaker bounce off the cage wall, and Whittaker ricochets off of it to get his own strikes off. Du Plessis times a knee up the middle when Whittaker ducks down, and he kicks right into Whittaker’s shin. Whittaker connects with a few left hands to mark up Du Plessis’ nose, and he absorbs a flush calf kick. The two crash together, and Du Plessis grabs hold of the former champ with a head lock and throws Whittaker to the floor. Du Plessis threatens with a potential brabo choke, and he releases the grip to slash down with an elbow that rips open a cut on Whittaker’s temple. Du Plessis passes guard with 20 seconds to go, and he sets up another brabo choke with seconds to go. When that fails, Du Plessis postures up and lays into Whittaker with punches and elbows to put an exclamation point on the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center to open up the second round with a glove touch, and Whittaker is ready to get his jab going early. When Du Plessis kicks low, Whittaker throws high with a left hand and a head kick. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, shutting down the offense mid-swing from Du Plessis. Whittaker blocks a pair of speedy punches, and he stomps down with a kick to the knee. The two come together and Whittaker raps his man on the chin with a right hand. Whittaker absorbs a jab and responds with two back, and he chains it into an overhand right. Du Plessis walks into a left hook, and he has one more leg kick checked. Whittaker reaches his man with a head kick, and he takes a body kick right back. Whittaker slings a left hook and a calf kick, and he leans back from the counters that buzz past his beard. Whittaker springs in with two lefts and gets away before a counter can find the target. Du Plessis reaches out with a straight right hand that frazzles the former champ, who drops down to his knees in rough shape. Du Plessis is surprised at his handiwork, and he does not capitalize immediately. When Whittaker wobbles back to his feet, Du Plessis is on him now. “Stillknocks” drills Whittaker with a long series of punches to the body and head, and it is a right to the body that puts Whittaker firmly in the danger zone. Whittaker collapses to a knee, and Du Plessis swarms him with a ferocious combination that pummels “Bobby Knuckles” and puts him away once and for good. This is an enormous upset, and a phenomenal performance for the immediate title challenger. The victory is so stunning that champ Adesanya approaches UFC President Dana White to request an in-cage challenge. The UFC strikes while the iron is hot, stating that Du Plessis will indeed challenge Adesanya for the belt in Sydney in a few months. When they come together in the cage, things do not go well, as Adesanya hurls racial epithets and tries to draw a reaction out of his prospective opponent and “African brother.” Adesanya shouts about Du Plessis’ African DNA, and commentator Joe Rogan is just along for the ride at this point. The fighters jaw at one another until the promotion decides to move on, and the two are separated. This awkward exchange does not, however, take away from the accomplishment of Du Plessis, who put an incredibly durable Whittaker away with style points.
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Robert Whittaker R2 2:23 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 74 of 166 | 44% | 74 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 33 of 116 | 28% | 38 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 74 of 166 | 44% | 49 of 138 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 19 | 72 of 163 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 33 of 116 | 28% | 15 of 94 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 22 of 56 | 39% | 15 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 14 of 41 | 34% | 6 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 53 | 47% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 10 of 45 | 22% | 4 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-230), Vettori (+195)
Round 1
Even though these two middleweights are in the top three or four of their division, this match between former champ Whittaker (23-6, 14-4 UFC) and fiery ex-title challenger Vettori (18-5-1, 8-3-1 UFC) may be little more than a stay-busy fight as long as Israel Adesanya holds the title. These two top contenders are taking it quite seriously, and so is referee Jason Herzog. There is no interest in a glove touch, as these two would rather get right to the action. Whittaker lands first with a lunging low kick, and he connects with another right after to the same spot. Vettori crashes in to engage, but Whittaker is able to dodge them all. Whittaker scores a low kick and escapes the counters that fly, and he is able to beat Vettori to the punch in a few exchanges. Vettori loads up on a heavy inside leg kick as he gets cracked with an overhand right, and Whittaker reaches him with a left hand when they settle. Whittaker catches the Italian coming in with a swatting left, and he flusters Vettori with his movement. Vettori snakes in a left hand over the top, and Whittaker leans back as another is aimed at his jaw. Vettori times a dipping Whittaker with a sharp left, only to get popped with a swiping right hook. “Bobby Knuckles” stabs breadbasket with the toes with a front kick, forcing Vettori to shoot in, and Whittaker easily turns him around and separates. They both paw at one another with single strikes, and Vettori loads up on a body kick. Whittaker secures two left hands, and he absorbs a body kick so that he can snap out a right hand. Vettori ignores a jab to step in with a knee, and the horn sounds to end the close round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the middle, and Whittaker lands the first blow with a stomping kick to the knee. He follows it with a kick to the ribs, and he hops back when Vettori tosses out a right hand. Whittaker fires a high kick that makes him fall over before it can reach Vettori, but he climbs back up with no issue. Whittaker leans back as a head kick soars past him, and he springs away when Vettori gives chase with a few punches. Vettori clinches up the former champ and pushes him to the wall, and Whittaker frames him off and gets back to the middle of the Octagon. “The Italian Dream” dreams up a head kick, but it floats past Whittaker. Whittaker then responds with a head kick, and as it skims off the head, he connects with a follow-up right hand that stuns Vettori. Whittaker puts a front kick up to split the guard, and Vettori gives one jab back in response. The punches from Vettori are out of range, and Whittaker is able to close the distance and pop him in the chops and get out of the way before a counter comes. Whittaker launches another head kick, and as it gets blocked, he pounds a right hand on the chin. Vettori blocks another head kick, but it gets through the guard and he is wobbled. Whittaker does not let things go, instead staying measured and allowing Vettori to hit air. Whittaker pushes out a right hand down the pipe, and he sneaks up a speedy head kick that careens off the block. Vettori appears to have his legs beneath him again, but he cannot seem to connect with any meaningful offense. Whittaker bullies him back with punches off the arms, and he nails Vettori with a right hand and a head kick. The Italian bounces off the fence and right into a fist of “Bobby Knuckles,” and Whittaker is in his element. When Vettori comes forward, Whittaker chops a side kick on the knee that hyperextends it for his foe. Whittaker drills his man with a straight right hand, and the horn sounds. As it does, Vettori limps back to his corner, possibly compromised from the leg strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker
Round 3
Vettori is motivated going into Round 3, with a higher pace, but he still cannot consistently find the mark. Whittaker plants the ball of his foot on Vettori’s body several times, and he stands there a little too long, allowing Vettori to score a few punches. Vettori gives chase as Whittaker moves quickly, and he tries for a high kick only to get caught on the way up with a right hand. Vettori walks through a punch so that he can pound a left hand on the chin, and the responsive strike from the former champ opens a cut on Vettori’s left cheek. Whittaker jabs and fires off a head kick, and Vettori smiles but he is hurt. Whittaker jumps forward with a right hand, and he snaps the head back with another. Whittaker swings a high kick that ends up kneeing Vettori on the top of the head, and Vettori’s eyes go wide but he remains on his feet. Vettori kicks low, only to get it checked, and Whittaker replies with one that lands. “Bobby Knuckles” plants a right hand on the cheek, knocking Vettori back and making Vettori check himself. Vettori gathers steam and looses a head kick, and Whittaker leans back and watches it soar past him. Vettori attempts a takedown entry, and Whittaker tosses him aside and busts him in the face with a right hand. Whittaker side kicks the knee and then uses his other leg to belt Vettori upside the head, and Vettori is guessing and eating shots without any hope of response. As Vettori plans on defending a head kick, Whittaker shoots in low and takes him down to make a point. Vettori sits up and turns to his knees, and Herzog informs Whittaker that his foe is grounded. Whittaker elects instead to uppercut Vettori a few times, before Vettori climbs back up to his feet. Vettori looses a head kick, and Whittaker responds with three that land time and again. The bell sounds to end the 15-minute showcase in striking, with Whittaker putting on a master class.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Whittaker (30-27 Whittaker)
The Official Result
Robert Whittaker def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.
Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.
The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.
Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 79 of 169 | 46% | 98 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 59 of 136 | 43% | 74 of 151 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 79 of 169 | 46% | 36 of 108 | 14 of 23 | 29 of 38 | 77 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 59 of 136 | 43% | 38 of 105 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 20 | 54 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 34 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 16 of 41 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 33 | 36% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.
Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.
Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.
Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
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