vs
-109 +110
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023 · Catchweight (172.5 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Gilbert Urbina
5.57 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
4.62 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
2.86 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Orion Cosce
2.77 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.02 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.92 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Gilbert Urbina
Moneyline
BetRivers -109
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
FanDuel +380
Decision
BetRivers +390
Orion Cosce
Moneyline
Caesars +110
KO/TKO
BetRivers +350
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
FanDuel +340
Gilbert Urbina - Fight History
LOSS vs Uroš Medić
KO R1 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 1 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gilbert Urbina 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 1 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gilbert Urbina 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gilbert Urbina 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gilbert Urbina 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uroš Medić but hates the odds at -350. He notes Medić is a technical striker with 100% finish rate and killer instinct, but his takedown defense is low. Gilbert Urbina is a grappler with high output but poor striking defense. Angelo thinks Medić will win because strikers are having more success, but the odds are too wide for his liking.

Odds comment: hates the -350 line, thinks it's too wide.
"Uros Medic is going to be the pick, but I hate these odds. minus 350."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Big Brady is confident in Uroš Medić, citing his 100% finish rate and legitimate striking power. He criticizes Gilbert Urbina's chin, noting he was dropped multiple times by Tawn Gore and knocked out by Charles Raki. Brady believes Medić is a much better striker than Raki and will knock out Urbina early. He predicts a first-round knockout for Medić.

first round knockout
"I like Medic here. I think he's knocking out Erbena. I think it's going to be early. I think it's going to be in the first round. Give me Earos Medic by first round knockout here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Connor picks Urbina because he thinks Medić's game has been figured out after getting wrecked a few times, and Urbina might not give him respect. He notes Urbina's cage wrestling and good riding skills from his win over Cosce.

"I think I'm gonna take Urbina I just get the feeling that Medic is got one of those games where it shocked a couple of people before everybody knew who he was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Despite not being a big fan of Medic, the host sees this as a winnable fight and expects it to be violent. He thinks Medic will consistently crash the pocket and produce car crashes that could result in a finish, leading him to pick Medic by knockout.

by KO
"I'm not a big fan of Medic, but this is a very winnable fight for him and one that I expect to be violent from jump."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić over Gilbert Urbina, noting that Urbina's height is likely misreported and he lacks presence. He believes Medić has better offensive skills and finishing potential, and that his losses are to higher-level opponents. He predicts a TKO win for Medić.

"I'm going with Uros Medic. I think he's better offensively. I think he's got more finishing potential."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

Zane picks Medić because he is dynamic on the front foot and fast, and Urbina is not a pressure fighter. He notes Medić's tendency to put himself in bad positions but thinks Urbina will give him early opportunities.

"I'm inclined to take Medic."
LOSS vs Charles Radtke
TKO (punches) R1 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Gilbert Urbina 2 30 of 47 63% 33 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Gilbert Urbina 2 30 of 47 63% 33 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 16 of 38 42% 4 of 17 6 of 10 6 of 11 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Urbina 30 of 47 63% 23 of 40 0 of 0 7 of 7 27 of 43 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 16 of 38 42% 4 of 17 6 of 10 6 of 11 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Urbina 30 of 47 63% 23 of 40 0 of 0 7 of 7 27 of 43 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Angelo picks Gilbert Urbina, citing his cardio and pace as key factors. He notes that Urbina's takedown defense is a concern but believes his early pace will be too much for Radtke. He has Urbina in a parlay but only one bet to avoid overexposure.

Urbina included in a parlay
"Gilbert's going to be the pick here cuz I think the cardio is going to separate these two"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charles Radtke to win by second-round submission. He notes that Urbina's last win came against a compromised Orion Coy, and he has questions about Urbina's durability and cardio. Radtke has power in his hands and solid defensive grappling. Brady expects Urbina to have early success with takedowns, but Radtke will find the chin and knock him out. He thinks people are overrating Urbina and underrating Radtke.

second round, submission (TKO)
"I'm going to take racky here for the upset I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Cody picks Urbina, criticizing Radtke's limited skills and poor performance against Blood Diamond. He notes Urbina's youth, size advantage, and improving striking and wrestling. He expects Urbina to win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Urbina has range management and a strong top game, and should be able to grind out a finish. However, Radtke is a live underdog with good wrestling and power, and there are questions about his gas tank and durability. The host is not super confident but picks Urbina to win inside the distance.

Fight doesn't go to decision is a possibility.
"I'm going to go with arbina to pick up the victory inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Paul picks Urbina, highlighting the size difference and Radtke's inability to push around a bigger fighter. He notes Urbina's losses are to solid prospects and expects him to handle Radtke's pressure.

"I like Gilbert orina"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Urbina over Charles Radtke, predicting a second-round finish. He criticizes Radtke's performance against Blood Diamond, calling it pathetic, and compares Radtke to Ryan Koischeck. He believes Urbina will have similar success as he did against Koischeck, and notes Urbina's only losses are to Brian Battle and Sean Brady.

finish in round two
"I'm actually going to go with Gilbert urbina smoked to oryan Koski easily... I think he'll finish Charles radkey in round two."
WIN vs Orion Cosce
TKO (front kick and knees) R2 2:55 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Urbina 0 16 of 32 50% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Orion Cosce 1 51 of 82 62% 100 of 139 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Urbina 0 10 of 18 55% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Orion Cosce 0 34 of 47 72% 83 of 104 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:06
2 Gilbert Urbina 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Orion Cosce 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Urbina 16 of 32 50% 9 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 4 14 of 29 1 of 2 1 of 1
Orion Cosce 51 of 82 62% 31 of 56 12 of 16 8 of 10 27 of 55 4 of 4 20 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Urbina 10 of 18 55% 7 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Orion Cosce 34 of 47 72% 23 of 34 9 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 21 3 of 3 20 of 23
2 Gilbert Urbina 6 of 14 42% 2 of 8 2 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 17 of 35 48% 8 of 22 3 of 6 6 of 7 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Angelo picks Orion Cosce because he believes Cosce can get takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Urbina's takedown defense. He notes Cosce's poor fight IQ and striking, but thinks he can grind out a win. He plans to bet on Orion to have more takedowns when the prop lines drop on Friday.

Plan to bet on Orion Cosce more takedowns when prop lines drop
"I'm still gonna pick Orion here because very simply I think he can get the takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Gilbert's takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to submit Gilbert Urbina in the third round. He notes that both fighters have questionable cardio, but he trusts Cosce to push through fatigue better. He sees Cosce as the better wrestler who can mix in takedowns and wear on Urbina, eventually getting a late submission. However, he admits he doesn't trust either fighter completely and calls it a low-level fight.

submission in round 3
"give me a Ryan Cosi to mix in the takedowns make this a very grinding heavy fight and then eventually uh get urbina in a sub in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody thinks Cosce has a clinch advantage and better wrestling, but his cardio is a concern. He expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans Cosce due to his physicality. He is not confident and calls it a greasy fight.

"I will take him but so greasy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Connor also picks Cosce, agreeing that he is a better athlete and more coordinated. He points out that Urbina gets tired and runs out of ideas, while Cosce maintains consistent power wrestling. Connor expects Cosce to win the first round and then both fighters to fall off, but Cosce will have the lead.

"I'll take CoC as well. But this fight could, CoC is not, unfortunately, a clinical enough fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel Levi picks Orion Cosce based on a coin flip, calling both fighters 'frauds.' He notes Cosce has more wrestling but gassing issues, while Urbina is more dangerous but can't wrestle. He is not confident and says he is passing on betting this fight. He leans Cosce because the coin said so.

"the coin says we're gonna go with uh with Orion kosai to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

The host picks Gilbert Urbina as an underdog, citing his more complete skill set including better striking, jiu-jitsu, and wrestling. He thinks Urbina's activity off his back could lead to a submission, and he expects the pace to force Cosce to slow down. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and predicts a submission in the second round.

under 2.5 rounds, submission in round 2
"give me Gilbert urbina I want to save you a club in sub probably in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Paul picks Urbina to be different, citing a potential edge in cardio and length. He acknowledges both fighters are unreliable and that the loser may be cut. He is not confident and will not bet.

"I'll take urbina just to be different."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce, citing his wrestling and grinding style. He notes Cosce's loss to Blood Diamond is not disqualifying, as Philip Rowe is a good fighter. He questions Gilbert Urbina's UFC caliber, suggesting he may not deserve to be there, and also raises concerns about Urbina's weight cut and conditioning. He expects Cosce to grind out a decision over the rounds.

"Orion koshke I think he wins this fight ... I think koshke will grind him out over the rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Zane picks Cosce, describing him as a slightly better athlete and more consistently putting himself in strong positions with good leverage for throws and lifts. He notes that Urbina is not very coordinated and lacks natural athleticism, and that Cosce's power wrestling game should prevail. Zane expects an ugly fight but sees Cosce winning the first round when fresh.

"I'll take Cozy. I think he's just a slightly better athlete."
LOSS vs Bryan Battle
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Battle 0 46 of 87 52% 54 of 96 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:22
Gilbert Urbina 0 45 of 76 59% 63 of 95 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Battle 0 34 of 62 54% 40 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Gilbert Urbina 0 38 of 59 64% 56 of 78 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:59
2 Bryan Battle 0 12 of 25 48% 14 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:35
Gilbert Urbina 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Battle 46 of 87 52% 17 of 54 23 of 27 6 of 6 30 of 68 15 of 18 1 of 1
Gilbert Urbina 45 of 76 59% 33 of 62 9 of 11 3 of 3 15 of 39 18 of 23 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Battle 34 of 62 54% 10 of 35 20 of 23 4 of 4 21 of 47 13 of 15 0 of 0
Gilbert Urbina 38 of 59 64% 28 of 47 8 of 10 2 of 2 12 of 30 14 of 15 12 of 14
2 Bryan Battle 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1
Gilbert Urbina 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 4 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Angelo picks Battle, citing his striking volume, head kicks, and takedown defense. He notes Urbina lost in the semifinals due to striking and that Battle is the better striker. He placed a 2-unit moneyline bet, which is rare for him.

Angelo placed 2 units on Battle moneyline.
"i think brian battle wins this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Cody picks Battle, noting he looks like the bigger middleweight with solid takedown defense and clinch work. He contrasts Urbina's sporadic career and poor performance against Trashon Gore, where he was dropped by jabs. Cody believes Battle's generalist skills and experience from fighting frequently give him the edge, and he expects a decision win.

"i think it's brian battle or bust in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Jacob reluctantly picks Battle, saying he doesn't think either fighter is very good. He notes Battle was getting outgrappled before finding a D'Arce choke, and Urbina got dropped in his last fight. He expects a sloppy mess but gives Battle the edge due to his ability to get back to his feet.

"i would go for for battle because even in that fight where he was getting taken down he did get back to his feet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Lock picks Battle by decision at +210, believing Battle will grind out Urbina over 15 minutes. He notes Battle's grappling and striking progression, and thinks Urbina is tentative and low-volume. Lock is concerned about Battle's power but thinks he can outpoint Urbina. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as well. Lock considered Battle as a potential lock of the night but wants more data.

over 2.5 rounds -140, Battle by decision +210
"i do think battle wins by decision as well which currently sits at plus 210 i don't mind that line here again i like the overs as well in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Paul agrees with Battle, emphasizing that Urbina is the smaller man moving up and has limited skills. He notes Battle's ability to mix striking and wrestling, and that Urbina's chin looked suspect against Gore. Paul thinks Battle is the clear pick and will likely win by decision or TKO.

"yeah i think you got to go with brian battle as well he's looked better on the show and he does tend to be the bigger guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

The Guru picks Bryan Battle to finish Gilbert Urbina, noting Battle's rapid improvement and Urbina's lack of preparation. He mentions that Urbina was knocked out on TUF and is taking the fight on short notice. The Guru predicts a third-round submission for Battle, as he trusts Battle's finishing ability over Urbina's durability.

Battle by submission in round 3
"i'm going to go with brian battle by third round submission over gilbert urbina"
Orion Cosce - Fight History
LOSS vs Gilbert Urbina
TKO (front kick and knees) R2 2:55 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Urbina 0 16 of 32 50% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Orion Cosce 1 51 of 82 62% 100 of 139 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Urbina 0 10 of 18 55% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Orion Cosce 0 34 of 47 72% 83 of 104 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:06
2 Gilbert Urbina 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Orion Cosce 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Urbina 16 of 32 50% 9 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 4 14 of 29 1 of 2 1 of 1
Orion Cosce 51 of 82 62% 31 of 56 12 of 16 8 of 10 27 of 55 4 of 4 20 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Urbina 10 of 18 55% 7 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Orion Cosce 34 of 47 72% 23 of 34 9 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 21 3 of 3 20 of 23
2 Gilbert Urbina 6 of 14 42% 2 of 8 2 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 17 of 35 48% 8 of 22 3 of 6 6 of 7 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Angelo picks Orion Cosce because he believes Cosce can get takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Urbina's takedown defense. He notes Cosce's poor fight IQ and striking, but thinks he can grind out a win. He plans to bet on Orion to have more takedowns when the prop lines drop on Friday.

Plan to bet on Orion Cosce more takedowns when prop lines drop
"I'm still gonna pick Orion here because very simply I think he can get the takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Gilbert's takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to submit Gilbert Urbina in the third round. He notes that both fighters have questionable cardio, but he trusts Cosce to push through fatigue better. He sees Cosce as the better wrestler who can mix in takedowns and wear on Urbina, eventually getting a late submission. However, he admits he doesn't trust either fighter completely and calls it a low-level fight.

submission in round 3
"give me a Ryan Cosi to mix in the takedowns make this a very grinding heavy fight and then eventually uh get urbina in a sub in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody thinks Cosce has a clinch advantage and better wrestling, but his cardio is a concern. He expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans Cosce due to his physicality. He is not confident and calls it a greasy fight.

"I will take him but so greasy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Connor also picks Cosce, agreeing that he is a better athlete and more coordinated. He points out that Urbina gets tired and runs out of ideas, while Cosce maintains consistent power wrestling. Connor expects Cosce to win the first round and then both fighters to fall off, but Cosce will have the lead.

"I'll take CoC as well. But this fight could, CoC is not, unfortunately, a clinical enough fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel Levi picks Orion Cosce based on a coin flip, calling both fighters 'frauds.' He notes Cosce has more wrestling but gassing issues, while Urbina is more dangerous but can't wrestle. He is not confident and says he is passing on betting this fight. He leans Cosce because the coin said so.

"the coin says we're gonna go with uh with Orion kosai to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

The host picks Gilbert Urbina as an underdog, citing his more complete skill set including better striking, jiu-jitsu, and wrestling. He thinks Urbina's activity off his back could lead to a submission, and he expects the pace to force Cosce to slow down. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and predicts a submission in the second round.

under 2.5 rounds, submission in round 2
"give me Gilbert urbina I want to save you a club in sub probably in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Paul picks Urbina to be different, citing a potential edge in cardio and length. He acknowledges both fighters are unreliable and that the loser may be cut. He is not confident and will not bet.

"I'll take urbina just to be different."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce, citing his wrestling and grinding style. He notes Cosce's loss to Blood Diamond is not disqualifying, as Philip Rowe is a good fighter. He questions Gilbert Urbina's UFC caliber, suggesting he may not deserve to be there, and also raises concerns about Urbina's weight cut and conditioning. He expects Cosce to grind out a decision over the rounds.

"Orion koshke I think he wins this fight ... I think koshke will grind him out over the rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Zane picks Cosce, describing him as a slightly better athlete and more consistently putting himself in strong positions with good leverage for throws and lifts. He notes that Urbina is not very coordinated and lacks natural athleticism, and that Cosce's power wrestling game should prevail. Zane expects an ugly fight but sees Cosce winning the first round when fresh.

"I'll take Cozy. I think he's just a slightly better athlete."
WIN vs Mike Mathetha
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Orion Cosce 0 25 of 52 48% 77 of 107 3 of 8 37% 0 0 9:26
Mike Mathetha 0 63 of 98 64% 90 of 126 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Orion Cosce 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:00
Mike Mathetha 0 20 of 28 71% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
2 Orion Cosce 0 12 of 25 48% 21 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:20
Mike Mathetha 0 33 of 59 55% 50 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
3 Orion Cosce 0 5 of 12 41% 38 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:06
Mike Mathetha 0 10 of 11 90% 17 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Orion Cosce 25 of 52 48% 14 of 38 10 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 27 9 of 14 8 of 11
Mike Mathetha 63 of 98 64% 28 of 55 26 of 29 9 of 14 34 of 60 29 of 37 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Orion Cosce 8 of 15 53% 4 of 9 3 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 7 3 of 5 3 of 3
Mike Mathetha 20 of 28 71% 5 of 9 12 of 14 3 of 5 9 of 17 11 of 11 0 of 0
2 Orion Cosce 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 6 of 9 1 of 3
Mike Mathetha 33 of 59 55% 19 of 42 10 of 11 4 of 6 17 of 34 16 of 24 0 of 1
3 Orion Cosce 5 of 12 41% 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Mike Mathetha 10 of 11 90% 4 of 4 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to win by first-round submission. He notes Cosce is the wrestler with a 100% finish rate, but has cardio concerns if the fight extends past the first round. He believes Cosce will get takedowns early and finish Mathetha, who has a kickboxing background but limited MMA experience. Brady is staying away from betting this fight due to the sketchy nature of low-level matchups.

"I will go with orion cosy and i'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody picks Cosce, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes that Blood Diamond has zero takedown defense and will be taken down and mauled. He thinks Cosce will get the takedown early and deliver ground and pound. He also mentions that Cosce has cardio issues but expects him to finish inside two rounds. He says the price is about right but that Cosce should win.

"i got to go back to the wrestling the wrestling is everything blood diamond seemingly has zero ability to stuff the takedown"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel picks Cosce but is not confident. He notes Cosce has serious gas tank issues and is not a great grappler. He acknowledges Blood Diamond's kickboxing background but says his MMA experience is minimal (3-1). He thinks if Cosce can take the fight to the ground, he can win, but if they stand and bang, it could get interesting. He does not want to lay -175 on Cosce, so he passes on betting.

"Cosce is my pick but I'm just not trying to lay minus 175 on Cosce."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Orion Cosce

Preet expects Cosce to get the fight to the ground quickly and finish early, or Blood Diamond catches him on the way in. He bet the under 1.5 rounds at +111, predicting an early finish either way. He notes Cosce's rough weight cut but still leans on his grappling to end it quickly.

under 1.5 rounds +111
"my personal bet that i've taken here is the under one and a half plus 111"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Paul leans Cosce but is not confident. He notes that Blood Diamond is knockout or bust and that Cosce has a wrestling advantage. He thinks Cosce will take him down and finish him early, but if it goes to the second or third, Cosce's cardio could be an issue. He also mentions that Blood Diamond pulled out of the fight six weeks ago, which is a concern. He says he would wait for live betting after the first round.

"i would take koski again i don't love the price tag but this could be one of those fights where you could get a guy and he'll look like a minus a thousand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Mike Mathetha

The MMA Guru predicts Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond) will win by TKO in the third round. He expects Orion Cosce to take Mathetha down repeatedly in the first two rounds, but Mathetha will work back to his feet and land damaging knees to the body. Cosce's weight cut was bad, so he will slow down in round three, allowing Mathetha to finish him with knees and strikes.

TKO in round 3
"i think we can start to see those knees to the body start adding up on orion koshka ... finish him in the third round by tko"
LOSS vs Philip Rowe
TKO (punches) R2 4:21 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 1 46 of 93 49% 53 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Orion Cosce 0 22 of 52 42% 51 of 82 2 of 6 33% 0 0 6:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Orion Cosce 0 7 of 11 63% 22 of 27 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:35
2 Philip Rowe 1 43 of 87 49% 45 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Orion Cosce 0 15 of 41 36% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 46 of 93 49% 32 of 76 13 of 16 1 of 1 33 of 78 13 of 15 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 22 of 52 42% 17 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 44 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
2 Philip Rowe 43 of 87 49% 31 of 72 12 of 15 0 of 0 31 of 73 12 of 14 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 15 of 41 36% 11 of 35 3 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 38 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Philip Rowe over Orion Cosce. He highlights Rowe's significant 9.5-inch reach advantage and superior cardio, noting that Rowe is a better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and slick submissions off his back. He expects Cosce to have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Rowe to secure a late finish. Brady predicts a third-round knockout for Rowe.

third round knockout
"give me a philip rowe for a uh give me a third round knockout for philip rowe here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody picks Philip Rowe as a live underdog, citing his massive reach advantage (9 inches) and tricky striking. He notes that Cosce has cardio issues and that Rowe can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Cody believes that if Rowe survives the first round, he can take over as Cosce tires. He already placed a bet on Rowe at +150.

Cody bet on Philip Rowe at +150.
"i already i that was my first bet that i made on the card i took a plus 150 on philip rowe"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi is surprised that Cosce is a -160 favorite, as he sees this as a more even fight. He believes Rowe has significant physical advantages with his 81-inch reach and 6'4" frame, and that his jiu-jitsu training under Julian Williams and Adolfo Vieira gives him a submission threat. Levi acknowledges Rowe's vulnerability to leg kicks due to his build but hasn't seen Cosce employ that strategy. He leans on Rowe to use his physical tools and possibly find a submission or grind out a decision.

Surprised by the line; thinks Cosce should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'm not really sure you know why why the confidence so I'm gonna go with phil roe here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Rowe has a huge reach and height advantage, slicker boxing, good movement, and enough jiu-jitsu to avoid trouble. Cosce's regional tape shows gassing and sketchy competition. Rowe's distance striking should wear Cosce down as the fight progresses. The only concern is leg kicks, but Cosce doesn't rely on them heavily. Rowe by decision is the most likely outcome.

Rowe by decision +360 (sprinkle)
"I do like Phil Roe in this spot I think he's a solid underdog... I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Paul leans towards Orion Cosce, noting his power and wrestling advantage. He believes Cosce can take Rowe down and use his strength to control the fight. However, he is concerned about Cosce's cardio and the reach disadvantage. Paul sees this as a close fight and is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot.

"i think it's dogger pass i've already got some action in on this"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce over Philip Rowe, stating that Cosce is better and pressures opponents. He notes that Rowe struggled against Gabriel Green, who pressured him, and that Cosce is a better pressure fighter. He expects Cosce to break Rowe as the rounds go on and predicts a finish in the third round by TKO.

Cosce by TKO in round 3
"i'm gonna go over ryan koski here over philip bro... i think he'll get a finish in the third round by tko"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Angelo picks Orion Cosce because he believes Cosce can get takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Urbina's takedown defense. He notes Cosce's poor fight IQ and striking, but thinks he can grind out a win. He plans to bet on Orion to have more takedowns when the prop lines drop on Friday.

Plan to bet on Orion Cosce more takedowns when prop lines drop
"I'm still gonna pick Orion here because very simply I think he can get the takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Gilbert's takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to submit Gilbert Urbina in the third round. He notes that both fighters have questionable cardio, but he trusts Cosce to push through fatigue better. He sees Cosce as the better wrestler who can mix in takedowns and wear on Urbina, eventually getting a late submission. However, he admits he doesn't trust either fighter completely and calls it a low-level fight.

submission in round 3
"give me a Ryan Cosi to mix in the takedowns make this a very grinding heavy fight and then eventually uh get urbina in a sub in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody thinks Cosce has a clinch advantage and better wrestling, but his cardio is a concern. He expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans Cosce due to his physicality. He is not confident and calls it a greasy fight.

"I will take him but so greasy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Connor also picks Cosce, agreeing that he is a better athlete and more coordinated. He points out that Urbina gets tired and runs out of ideas, while Cosce maintains consistent power wrestling. Connor expects Cosce to win the first round and then both fighters to fall off, but Cosce will have the lead.

"I'll take CoC as well. But this fight could, CoC is not, unfortunately, a clinical enough fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel Levi picks Orion Cosce based on a coin flip, calling both fighters 'frauds.' He notes Cosce has more wrestling but gassing issues, while Urbina is more dangerous but can't wrestle. He is not confident and says he is passing on betting this fight. He leans Cosce because the coin said so.

"the coin says we're gonna go with uh with Orion kosai to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

The host picks Gilbert Urbina as an underdog, citing his more complete skill set including better striking, jiu-jitsu, and wrestling. He thinks Urbina's activity off his back could lead to a submission, and he expects the pace to force Cosce to slow down. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and predicts a submission in the second round.

under 2.5 rounds, submission in round 2
"give me Gilbert urbina I want to save you a club in sub probably in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Paul picks Urbina to be different, citing a potential edge in cardio and length. He acknowledges both fighters are unreliable and that the loser may be cut. He is not confident and will not bet.

"I'll take urbina just to be different."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce, citing his wrestling and grinding style. He notes Cosce's loss to Blood Diamond is not disqualifying, as Philip Rowe is a good fighter. He questions Gilbert Urbina's UFC caliber, suggesting he may not deserve to be there, and also raises concerns about Urbina's weight cut and conditioning. He expects Cosce to grind out a decision over the rounds.

"Orion koshke I think he wins this fight ... I think koshke will grind him out over the rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Zane picks Cosce, describing him as a slightly better athlete and more consistently putting himself in strong positions with good leverage for throws and lifts. He notes that Urbina is not very coordinated and lacks natural athleticism, and that Cosce's power wrestling game should prevail. Zane expects an ugly fight but sees Cosce winning the first round when fresh.

"I'll take Cozy. I think he's just a slightly better athlete."