Career Averages - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Career Averages - Vanessa Demopoulos
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Vanessa Demopoulos
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri | 0 | 137 of 253 | 54% | 142 of 261 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 72 of 192 | 37% | 75 of 196 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Polastri | 0 | 53 of 93 | 56% | 58 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 25 of 64 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julia Polastri | 0 | 46 of 96 | 47% | 46 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 30 of 68 | 44% | 30 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Julia Polastri | 0 | 38 of 64 | 59% | 38 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 20 of 63 | 31% | 20 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri | 137 of 253 | 54% | 85 of 193 | 42 of 49 | 10 of 11 | 123 of 233 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 72 of 192 | 37% | 24 of 121 | 36 of 57 | 12 of 14 | 71 of 189 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Polastri | 53 of 93 | 56% | 31 of 67 | 17 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 80 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 22 of 61 | 36% | 7 of 40 | 13 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julia Polastri | 46 of 96 | 47% | 29 of 79 | 14 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 89 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 30 of 68 | 44% | 7 of 32 | 16 of 29 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Julia Polastri | 38 of 64 | 59% | 25 of 47 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 38 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 20 of 63 | 31% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-450), Kowalkiewicz (+350)
Round 1
Strawweights take center stage as the prelims roll on. With a 12-year youth advantage on her side, a win for Polastri (13-5, 1-2 UFC) would lead her to a .500 record in the Octagon while dumping Kowalkiewicz (16-9, 9-9 UFC) below that threshold. A chasm of high-level experience separates the two, but it is “Psycho” who will serve as a significant betting favorite. The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, who clocks them in as they clap hands.
Kowalkiewicz takes right to the center of the cage, and as booming chants of “Uh Vai Morrer” rain down, Polastri flashes a wry grin. The ladies toss out low kicks, and Kowalkiewicz strings together a combination ending with a left hand. Polastri resets and pitches a leg kick, only for Kowalkiewicz to counter over the top. Kowalkiewicz rips a body kick in the midst of her strike combos, and Polastri is not a fan and fires back with one much heavier. The former title challenger grimaces from the strike to her midsection, and Polastri explodes into a flurry of punches and kicks. Kowalkiewicz protects herself against the wire, and she smiles when Polastri peels back. The smile quickly turns to a frown when Polastri drives a knee home to the body, but she is able to back off and shake it off. Kowalkiewicz throws a kick, changes stances and works the body. Kowalkiewicz slips a punch and connects with a right, and she takes a few on the chin to hit the Brazilian back.
Kowalkiewicz spins with a back fist, and it collides into the guard but she is not far enough away to avoid counters. Kowalkiewicz thinks about a trip takedown when catching one of Polastri’s kicks, but she lets the limb down where there is nothing to it. Polastri again tries to tie up the Polish woman, where she spams knees to what might be an already compromised midsection. Polastri goes over the top with an elbow, and she uses her weight to press Kowalkiewicz on the fencing. Kowalkiewicz gives her back a few knees and elbows to think about, forcing a break. Kowalkiewicz whiffs on the subsequent spinning back fist. A front kick from her does split the guard, and any cheers from her corner are completely drowned out from the chants of the crowd. They trade heavy blows while standing right in the pocket, with Polastri appearing to have the power advantage and the superior speed too. Kowalkiewicz feebly spins when under fire, and Polastri lays into her with an onslaught of punches that knock the former KSW fighter into the wall. As Polastri keeps connecting, the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Round 2
They clap hands again to start off the second stanza, and some swelling has developed under Kowalkiewicz’ right eye. She pays it no mind as Polastri comes right at her throwing caution to the wind. Kowalkiewicz tries to take her off her feet with a takedown attempt, but Polastri shuts it down and punches her square in the face. Kowalkiewicz meanders forward to grapple again, and Polastri’s intercepting knee and uppercut shut that down. Polastri senses that Kowalkiewicz is struggling, and she walks her foe down and beats on her relentlessly. Kowalkiewicz bounds off the fence to reset, and Polastri drops her hands and takes several deep breaths to get her wind back from going all-out. Kowalkiewicz is tough as nails, and she takes advantage of this opening with distant strikes. Once Polastri is ready to engage again, she raises her hands and cracks the Polish woman. Polastri fearlessly approaches her opponent, even with her energy reserves far from full, and she welcomes striking exchanges. Kowalkiewicz puts volume together as Polastri is looking for big power blows, and although Kowalkiewicz takes some on the chin, she evades the worst of the blows…until she doesn’t.
Totally unafraid of anything that comes back at her, Polastri connects with a flurry of punches and kicks that knock Kowalkiewicz back to the wall again. When Kowalkiewicz tries to get away, Polastri raises her arms in the air to further lather up the ravenous audience. Kowalkiewicz attempts a takedown, and Polastri takes longer to stop it but still manages to stonewall the former title challenger. Polastri flashes out a jab directly on the swollen cheek, and Kowalkiewicz kicks her back in the body. Polastri slaps her midsection, and she walks through the potshots of Kowalkiewicz to land heavy punches that bust open Kowalkiewicz’ nose. Kowalkiewicz spins with an elbow that bangs off the forehead, and Polastri energizes herself into one final assault before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Round 3
After 10 minutes of action, the strawweights come together in the center of the cage to hug it out. Polastri lands a single power strike, and Kowalkiewicz lets her have it with a long, effective flurry of fists and feet. Kowalkiewicz swings and ducks away to evade counters, and Polastri is still sporadically swinging for the bleachers. Kowalkiewicz sticks her foe with a short right hand, and she stuns the Brazilian for a second with another scooping uppercut. Polastri steels herself and boots Kowalkiewicz upside the head, and that only spurs Kowalkiewicz into more activity with a lengthy stretch of punches. Polastri connects with a hard body shot, and Kowalkiewicz’ body language and expression changes. Polastri digs several more strikes to the torso, and Kowalkiewicz bends over to try to take some of the sting out of them and has to actually sprint away to fully reset. Polastri walks her down like a Terminator, and her punches have developed more swelling and damage on Kowalkiewicz’ face.
With a full head of steam, Polastri steps in with a booming head kick that shakes up the ex-title challenger. Putting Kowalkiewicz’ on ice skates, Polastri marches forward and delivers a ruthless combination of punches to the head and body that have Kowalkiewicz in all sorts of trouble. With a couple minute still left on the clock, Polastri is cognizant that she does not want to punch herself out, but she knows that Kowalkiewicz is in trouble.
“Psycho” lets loose with all of her remaining energy, busting up Kowalkiewicz further and knocking her head around like a speed bag. As Kowalkiewicz is barely on her feet, possibly because the cage is behind her, Goddard intervenes to save the Polish woman from her toughness.
The crowd goes wild for the first Brazilian tonight to beat a foreign opponent, and Polastri hands Kowalkiewicz her second knockout loss—the first came from the mighty fist of Jessica Andrade. That is good company to be in.
The Official Result
Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz R3 2:56 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo leans towards Julia Polastri, citing her better striking, speed, and cleaner technique. He notes Karolina is too old and slowing down. However, he does not trust Julia enough at the current odds and prefers the over 2.5 rounds prop instead of the moneyline.
Big Brady picks Julia Polastri, citing her youth (27 vs 39), and being better everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He expects Polastri to come forward landing bigger shots and win a decision in Brazil. He acknowledges Karolina is tough and has decent volume, but believes Polastri's advantages are clear.
Cody picks Polastri but is not confident, noting Kowalkiewicz's experience and potential to make it close. He believes Polastri's youth and speed will be key, but expects a decision that could go either way. He suggests Polastri by decision.
Lucrative James is very confident in Julia Polastri, citing Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (turning 40) and lack of improvement. He believes Polastri is the better striker and grappler, and expects her to dominate. He notes that Kowalkiewicz is a striker and won't be able to wrestle effectively. He sees a finish as likely, pointing to Polastri's submission skills and the poor odds on the under 2.5 rounds (+334) and KO (+900) as value. He picks Polastri confidently.
Manpreet is confident in Polastri, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded game. He expects her to mix takedowns with striking and win a clear decision, as Kowalkiewicz is past her prime and on a losing streak. He doesn't mind the chalky odds.
Paul picks Polastri but is hesitant, calling it close to a 'CF dot model.' He notes Kowalkiewicz's age and 0-4 record against Brazilians, but expects a competitive decision. He suggests Polastri by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Julia Polastri over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing Kowalkiewicz is past her prime at nearly 40 and has looked poor recently. He notes Polastri has wins over decent competition and is fighting in Brazil. He predicts a decision win, likely 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 46 of 98 | 46% | 61 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 73 of 144 | 50% | 91 of 166 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 28 of 52 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 31 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 46 of 98 | 46% | 16 of 57 | 19 of 24 | 11 of 17 | 39 of 89 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 73 of 144 | 50% | 30 of 85 | 33 of 44 | 10 of 15 | 53 of 115 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 22 of 36 | 61% | 8 of 17 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 13 of 31 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 23 of 45 | 51% | 9 of 24 | 9 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 26 of 51 | 50% | 11 of 33 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 28 of 63 | 44% | 13 of 44 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 54 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.
Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.
Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.
Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.
Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.
The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.
Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 42 of 111 | 37% | 47 of 119 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 83 of 136 | 61% | 91 of 144 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 31 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 38 of 72 | 52% | 38 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 42 of 111 | 37% | 17 of 73 | 15 of 22 | 10 of 16 | 40 of 108 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 83 of 136 | 61% | 53 of 100 | 23 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 57 of 105 | 13 of 18 | 13 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 28 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 26 of 61 | 42% | 9 of 38 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 38 of 72 | 52% | 23 of 53 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 9 of 32 | 28% | 4 of 22 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 20 of 28 | 71% | 12 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 |
Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.
Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.
Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.
Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.
The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 141 of 267 | 52% | 155 of 283 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 2:15 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 99 of 261 | 37% | 108 of 270 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 39 of 74 | 52% | 41 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:12 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 35 of 83 | 42% | 41 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:13 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 52 of 87 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 33 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 61 of 117 | 52% | 62 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 34 of 112 | 30% | 34 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 141 of 267 | 52% | 94 of 203 | 42 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 123 of 244 | 17 of 21 | 1 of 2 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 99 of 261 | 37% | 57 of 199 | 33 of 50 | 9 of 12 | 85 of 241 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 39 of 74 | 52% | 29 of 60 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 62 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 35 of 83 | 42% | 21 of 64 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 70 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 41 of 76 | 53% | 31 of 62 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 30 of 66 | 45% | 18 of 49 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 61 of 117 | 52% | 34 of 81 | 25 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 60 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 34 of 112 | 30% | 18 of 86 | 12 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.
Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.
Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.
Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.
Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 139 of 237 | 58% | 148 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 68 of 221 | 30% | 83 of 237 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 36 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 55 of 82 | 67% | 56 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 22 of 86 | 25% | 22 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 71 | 59% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 139 of 237 | 58% | 94 of 187 | 30 of 33 | 15 of 17 | 134 of 230 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 68 of 221 | 30% | 49 of 190 | 13 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 65 of 216 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 84 | 50% | 33 of 73 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 77 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 28 of 71 | 39% | 20 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 66 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 55 of 82 | 67% | 30 of 55 | 16 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 22 of 86 | 25% | 13 of 71 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 71 | 59% | 31 of 59 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 18 of 64 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 18 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.
Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.
Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.
The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.
Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.
The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.
Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 74 of 202 | 36% | 90 of 230 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:03 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 77 of 263 | 29% | 79 of 267 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:45 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 6 of 31 | 19% | 7 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 31 of 86 | 36% | 31 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 27 of 105 | 25% | 27 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 38 of 101 | 37% | 39 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 44 of 127 | 34% | 45 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 74 of 202 | 36% | 55 of 170 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 71 of 198 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 77 of 263 | 29% | 46 of 224 | 24 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 75 of 259 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 6 of 31 | 19% | 3 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 31 of 86 | 36% | 21 of 71 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 27 of 105 | 25% | 18 of 95 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 105 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 38 of 101 | 37% | 30 of 87 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 36 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 44 of 127 | 34% | 25 of 102 | 15 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 42 of 123 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.
Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.
Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.
The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.
Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.
The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.
Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 55 of 122 | 45% | 59 of 126 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Felice Herrig | 0 | 82 of 123 | 66% | 102 of 146 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 3:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 34 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Felice Herrig | 0 | 48 of 70 | 68% | 50 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felice Herrig | 0 | 34 of 53 | 64% | 52 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 55 of 122 | 45% | 34 of 92 | 20 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 49 of 116 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Felice Herrig | 82 of 123 | 66% | 54 of 94 | 23 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 57 of 96 | 17 of 18 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 30 of 73 | 41% | 15 of 50 | 15 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Felice Herrig | 48 of 70 | 68% | 30 of 51 | 15 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 55 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 25 of 49 | 51% | 19 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Felice Herrig | 34 of 53 | 64% | 24 of 43 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 |
Angelo calls this a coin flip fight with too many variables. He notes Karolina is the better fighter but looks like a shell of herself, while Felice is scrappy and well-rounded. He reluctantly picks Felice because he believes she still has passion, but advises not to bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by a very close decision. He thinks the fight will play out like their first fight, with Kowalkiewicz stuffing takedowns and out-striking Herrig. However, he is very hesitant because both fighters are on long losing streaks and he questions Kowalkiewicz's mindset after five straight losses. He calls it a 'complete mess' and an 'unbeatable fight' from a betting perspective.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, arguing that her losses came against elite competition while Herrig has been inactive. He notes Herrig's takedown-dependent style and thinks Kowalkiewicz can stuff takedowns and win on volume. He is hesitant due to both fighters' age and recent form.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a slight underdog, noting she won their first fight and that both fighters are past their prime. He mentions Herrig's long layoff and focus on OnlyFans, while Kowalkiewicz has health issues. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and advises against betting, but leans toward Kowalkiewicz for the pick.
Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her superior striking and takedown defense from their first fight. He acknowledges both fighters are washed but believes Kowalkiewicz's activity and training at ATT give her an edge. He is not confident due to women's MMA volatility.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz but with clear disdain and low confidence. He calls the fight a 'sympathy bout' and questions why it's on the card. He notes Kowalkiewicz has good grappling defense and is scrappy, and she won the first fight, so he expects her to win again. However, he admits 'who knows' and seems to care little about the outcome.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 12 of 19 | 63% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 12 of 19 | 63% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.
Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.
Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Vanessa Demopoulos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 101 of 167 | 60% | 115 of 183 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 36 of 119 | 30% | 44 of 131 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 35 of 57 | 61% | 36 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 5 of 39 | 12% | 7 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 35 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 3 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 44 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 101 of 167 | 60% | 64 of 123 | 24 of 31 | 13 of 13 | 90 of 153 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 36 of 119 | 30% | 15 of 87 | 17 of 26 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 107 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 35 of 57 | 61% | 22 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 5 of 39 | 12% | 0 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 33 of 60 | 55% | 22 of 45 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 55 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 20 of 52 | 38% | 7 of 33 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 33 of 50 | 66% | 20 of 35 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 11 of 28 | 39% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Horth (-520), Demopoulos (+390)
Round 1
Atlanta! The capital of Georgia! The City in a Forest, The A, The Gate City, Hollywood of the South, ATL, Hotlanta, A City Among the Hills, Dogwood City…and many other names. The UFC has arrived to the city that holds over six million people in its metropolitan area, returning for the first time since Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier threw down for the second time all the way back in 2019. While no all-time banger is slated for this event’s lineup, with 13 bouts of varied significance, something is bound to bring the goods. UFC on ESPN 69 kicks off with a women’s flyweight contest pitting a Canadian in Horth (7-2, 2-2 UFC) struggling to find her way against a former strawweight in Demopoulos (11-7, 5-4 UFC) also trying to figure things out. Even with Horth sporting massive odds in her favor around -600, she is not even in top three heaviest betting favorites tonight. Here be squash matches. Referee Nate Mann takes the wheel for the first fight of the night, and the ladies touch gloves before his eyes to get started. Demopoulos, the shorter and smaller woman of the two by a wide margin, tries to get her offense going but is well out of range. Horth, meanwhile, easily slaps her opponent in the face with the first strike she throws: a front kick. Horth flicks out a low kick and avoids the return fire, with the former strawweight too distant. Horth goes to the well with another kick, and Demopoulos’s calf is already welting and reddening. Demopoulos lunges forward a few times, to no avail. Horth nearly wraps her head kick around the guard, forcing Demopoulos to mind her P’s and Q’s. Horth pitches a high kick to the other side, and the impact alone makes Demopoulos have to take a step back. Horth uses her long legs to do work, and she pins a body kick and follows it with a front kick to the midsection. Demopoulos’s responses rebound off the guard or come up short, so she engages in a clinch. The two jockey for position as soon as they find their way tied up, turning one another about, and Horth clocks Demopoulos with a right hand. Horth walks her foe down, landing with impunity, and turning the older woman’s face a brilliant shade of red. Horth picks away with jabs, stepping in with a kick to the body and giving Demopoulos all she can handle. Horth splits the guard with a one-two, and she again finds her target with a front kick. A trickle of blood appears on the side of Demopoulos’ nose, and Horth sees it and kicks at it. The front kick is one of the Canadian’s best weapons, freezing Demopoulos with one and then stinging her with a one-two. Demopoulos whiffs when trying to pay her back, and she looks for a takedown or something to get hold of her steamrolling opponent. Horth shucks it off and starts blasting the former dancer, allowing Demopoulos to try to get hold of her so she can toss Demopoulos to the mat. Horth lands in an awkward position as Demopoulos tries to reverse somersault, and the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Round 2
The ladies touch ‘em up to get going in the second round, and Demopoulos tries to take advantage of the close proximity but ends up missing on a few punches. Horth steps back and pops her with a right hook. Demopoulos chambers and fires a single kick, only to get her jaw jacked with a hook combination. Horth pounds the midsection with a liver kick, and she chains a front kick and two right hooks behind it. When the Canadian attacks another kick, Demopoulos grabs her and tries to tie her up. Demopoulos’ cheek starts leaking crimson fluid, with Horth’s strikes having a visible effect while Demopoulos might not have connected with 10 significant strikes over six and a half minutes in. On the break, Horth drills her opponent with a left hand that spins Demopoulos all the way around. Demopoulos recovers and loops a right hand back at her, but her six-plus inch reach deficiency is her worst enemy. Horth watches Demopoulos soar past her with strikes, chipping at her with jabs and punishing her with a right hand when Demopoulos charges her. Demopoulos gets off first and shoots for a double-leg takedown, but the taller woman turns her about and drills her in the jaw with a knee. The size discrepancy is jarring, as Horth can reach her at will with kicks while even Demopoulos’ kicks do not always get there. An axe kick from Demopoulos is nowhere near the mark, but she gets aggravated and wings a right hand that surprises Horth. The Canadian has to shake it off, and she marches forward and drives a kick to the ribcage. Demopoulos is tough as nails, but Horth is connecting constantly and effectively. When they clinch, Horth breaks it out of thanks to a few knees. A home run right hand from Demopoulos misses by a mile, and she takes a punch to give one back but is seemingly out-powered as well. Horth chains a kick into two punches, and she ducks the right hook at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Round 3
Horth springs out of her corner behind her jab, allowing Demopoulos to come at her so she can do work. Demopoulos’ charges put her at risk to getting kicked in the stomach, and Horth does this twice—the second sends Demopoulos flying. Demopoulos stands up and nods that she got hit with a good one, and she tries to grab hold of Horth. The Canadian allows Demopoulos to sell out for a takedown so she can wind up on top, and she hops away and trips. Demopoulos gives chase, but Horth is upright before she gets grounded for real. The Factory X fighter sells out for a takedown, even giving up dominant position in hopes of taking the back, but Horth turns her about and reams her with an elbow. Horth sits comfortably in the full guard of her foe, listening to her corner’s instructions while pummeling “Lil Monster” with ground-and-pound. Any time Demopoulos tosses her legs up for a submission of some kind, Horth busts her in the chops. Horth elects to stand back up, and she sways back to partially dodge a one-two. Chants for “USA” in support of Demopoulos rain down, and she salutes the crowd and takes a knee square on the jaw when not paying attention. Horth potshots her from a safe distance, her body kick about as clutch at it can be. Demopoulos walks through a head kick to wind a big right hand, and her power strikes are one-and-done while Horth is much busier, accurate and stronger. Demopoulos sprints towards her foe for a level change, and she tries to pull guard but Horth walks away. Demopoulos comes out firing with a one-two when getting back to her feet, and she snaps Horth’s head to the side with a solid jab. The prodding jabs from Horth keep her safe from the worst of it, and Demopoulos tries to catch a body kick but ends up eating four punches instead. Horth’s body kick leads to a shot up top, and she springs away to avoid a looping punch. Demopoulos fakes a takedown to throw hands, and she even attempts an Imanari roll to get hold of the Canadian. They trade hands, with Horth landing the flusher of the two, until the final bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
The Official Result
Jamey-Lyn Horth def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Horth because of her size advantage and ability to defend takedowns against the cage. He believes her range, length, and striking will be too much for Demopoulos, who is stepping up on short notice.
Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth due to her significant size and strength advantages, noting a 5-inch height and 6.5-7 inch reach advantage. He believes Horth will use her size to push Demopoulos against the cage and take her down, similar to how Allen Carr controlled Demopoulos. He acknowledges Demopoulos has been on the winning side of questionable decisions but expects Horth to win a boring decision. He is surprised Horth is a -475 favorite but agrees with the line.
Horth's size, physicality, and strength are expected to overwhelm Demopoulos, who is coming up a weight class on short notice. Horth will pin Demopoulos against the cage, drag her to the ground, and grind out a decision win.
The Guru picks Jamey-Lyn Horth based on her physicality advantage, noting she is 5'7" to Demopoulos's 5'2" with more reach. He criticizes Demopoulos's lack of technical skill, saying she 'has no idea what she's doing' and spent 13 minutes on bottom in her last fight. He expects Horth to outgrapple Demopoulos and win a 30-27 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 34 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 45 of 75 | 60% | 107 of 150 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 12:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:25 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 40 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 48 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 10 of 34 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Talita Alencar | 45 of 75 | 60% | 39 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Talita Alencar | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Talita Alencar | 11 of 24 | 45% | 7 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Talita Alencar | 25 of 34 | 73% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-112), Demopoulos (-108)
Round 1
This 11-week marathon of consecutive UFC cards soldiers on with the penultimate show on the stretch. We scoot back to the confines of the UFC Apex for better EBITDA margins, in a building that was supposed to starting renovations or construction soon. For now, it plays host to 12 fights ranging from 115 pounds to 266, but few matches on the lineup have any rankings relevance while there is likely to be ample pink slip fodder. The ladies in this curtain jerker might be safe if they lose this one, but with the promotion preparing for the summer season of Contender Series, few on the roster are safe. The two that kick this event off might be similar in age but they are a chasm apart in terms of experience. Demopoulos (11-6, 5-3 UFC) celebrates almost three times the appearances of Alencar (5-1-1, 1-1 UFC) despite the Brazilian just two years younger. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge for the opening bout, and it kicks off without a glove touch. Demopoulos says hello with two punches across the forward bow, and she snaps out another such combo and reaches Alencar with one more left hand before the Brazilian can get to her. Alencar ties her foe up against the cage, and she drops down and wraps up a head lock to force “Lil Monster” to her knees. Alencar uses her left arm to pressure behind Demopoulos’s neck, and she is warned for grabbing the fence when imposing her weight on her opponent. Demopoulos uses her toes to try to pull her out of danger, which too is a foul. Alencar keeps to this position, content to control rather than actually committing to the unorthodox submission. Alencar releases the grip around the neck and pushes Demopoulos’ legs out of the way to establish a more traditional top position. Demopoulos uses her legs to threaten and otherwise keep Alencar honest, allowing Alencar to punch her in the face repeatedly. Demopoulos hunts for a sweep and only bails on it when absorbing a particularly effective elbow. Alencar keeps her full weight down, jumping from one side to the other and winding up in a sudden armbar. The Brazilian punches out of it from above, and she grabs the foot of Demopoulos for a possible foot or ankle lock. Alencar sits on Demopoulos’ face as she hangs on, staying heavy until the round wraps.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 2
Demopoulos starts the round as aggressive as the first, firing off two one-two salvos and a right hand before she is met by her opponent. Alencar gets up close and personal, changing levels for a possible takedown, but abandons it and lets her hands go to smack Demopoulos upside the head. Demopoulos comes up short on a winging overhand right, and she wades back to let Alencar do something similar. Alencar tosses out naked leg kicks to keep Demopoulos away, and she sits down on a clean right hand but does not budge Demopoulos one inch. The moment “Lil Monster” drives through a one-two, Alencar counters her momentum to hit a double-leg takedown and plop her on her back. Alencar lands in half guard, using her shoulder pressure to flatten out Demopoulos as soon as they get horizontal. Alencar is quick to engage her smothering best, stifling Demopoulos and getting warned for striking the spine when she does attack again. “Problem Child” gives Demopoulos another problem by stepping to the other side so she can set up an arm-triangle choke. Demopoulos bucks and kicks enough to gain the space she needs to not get choked out, and this only results in her getting struck with more ground-and-pound. Alencar finds a brief opening and hammers down four right hands, and she sits back on Demopoulos’ face in a relatively unusual position. Demopoulos sells out for a leglock in hopes of reversing the position, and Alencar gets out of it by repeatedly grabbing the fence. Tognoni slaps her hand several times, and Alencar still is able to yank on it to get her leg out of the sub. Rules mean nothing with no consequences, and multiple fence grabs keeping her out of a submission go generally uncalled other than a “knock it off” from Tognoni. Alencar rides out the position on top until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 3
Demopoulos marches out of her corner a woman possessed, and she lashes out with multiple one-twos down the pipe. Alencar rushes towards her as well, perhaps for a takedown, and she clashes heads before changing levels. Tognoni checks to make sure neither woman sustained damage, and on the restart, Alencar tackles Demopoulos to the mat and the collective air out of the Apex as well. Alencar hangs out in guard, unafraid of anything the Factory X fighter will do to her, and she pops Demopoulos with some short, scoring strikes. Demopoulos hunts for a triangle choke, armbar or even possibly a desperate leglock, and the Brazilian laughs them all off and steps the proper direction to avoid them completely while remaining in top. Alencar shifts to half guard from the opposite side as she wants to set up an armbar, and she drops down ground-and-pound when not isolating the neck. When the sub is not there, Alencar sits up into three-quarter mount, and she attacks with strikes from above. With nothing left to lose, Demopoulos explodes to sit up and even stand. Unfortunately for her, the “Problem Child” is a problem for her, as she executes a near-immediate mat return to sling Demopoulos to her back. Alencar lords over her, dropping down standing-to-ground punches while avoiding upkicks. Alencar picks up the pace with more punches than before, and she climbs into half guard and elbows until the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Alencar (30-26 Alencar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.
Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.
Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.
The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaqueline Amorim | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaqueline Amorim | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaqueline Amorim | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaqueline Amorim | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amorim (-310), Demopoulos (+250)
Round 1
Strawweight grapplers come to blows in a battle between ladies that like to bully their opponents. Amorim (8-1, 2-1 UFC) has yet to go the distance when notching a win, while Demopoulos (11-5, 5-2 UFC) could comfortably describe the sound of the final bell. The pairing that could see some exciting exchanges on the mat will be officiated by referee Jacob Montalvo, and it kicks off as Amorim claims the middle of the cage and no interest in a glove touch. The Brazilian lets loose with a high kick, and Demopoulos pushes her back with a front kick but has that leg caught. Amorim uses the caught kick to take Demopoulos off-balance, and she throws “Lil Monster” to her back. Demopoulos tries for inverted triangle chokes while Amorim is on top in side control and briefly north-south position. Amorim shifts back to the side, and she pushes to three-quarter mount. Amorim gets dragged back to half guard, and she allows Demopoulos to explode so she can take her back and get a hook in. Demopoulos crouches down low in hopes of standing up, while Amorim is draped over her shoulders before tugging her to the floor. Amorim looks to set up an armbar but elects to get the body triangle. Demopoulos times a moment to escape, and she shouts loudly that the Brazilian has repeatedly grabbed inside of her gloves. As Demopoulos rolls to her knees, Amorim follows her through to lock down the armbar. Demopoulos keeps shouting to protest the fouls, and in doing so, she does not properly defend the submission. Amorim rolls to her back to complete the submission, and Demopoulos has no choice but to tap out. The second Montalvo intervenes, Demopoulos screams at him that the Brazilian was not grabbing her wrist but inside of her gloves to gain advantageous position. She implores Montalvo to check the replay, and he appears to go to the replay officials to check into it. For now, the official decision stands, with Amorim notching one more armbar and keeping her finish rate at 100%.
The Official Result
Jaqueline Amorim def. Vanessa Demopoulos R1 3:28 via Submission (Armbar)
Angelo picks Jaqueline Amorim because she is a multiple-time world champion in both gi and no-gi grappling, has one-punch knockout power, and is extremely dangerous on the ground. He believes Vanessa Demopoulos, despite her cardio and forward pressure, will struggle with Amorim's grappling and power. He thinks Amorim can win by submission or knockout, and notes that the under 2.5 rounds is plus money.
Big Brady picks Jaqueline Amorim to win by first-round submission. He is confident Amorim wins but warns about corrupt judges favoring Demopoulos and Amorim's cardio issues. Brady believes Amorim is the better grappler and will get takedowns, possibly submitting Demopoulos. He picks submission to avoid judges' interference.
Cody picks Demopoulos, arguing that Amorim's only path is takedowns and top control, but Demopoulos has good BJJ and cardio. He notes Demopoulos' toughness and ability to win close decisions. He sees value at plus money.
Daniel thinks Amorim's takedowns and top control will be the key. He notes Demopoulos's poor takedown defense (30%) and believes Amorim can grind out a decision. He doesn't expect a submission because Demopoulos is tough and a black belt. He acknowledges the 'first-round-or-bust' narrative but thinks Amorim can win two rounds with grappling.
Amorim is the best BJJ opponent Demopoulos has faced, but Demopoulos has never been finished and has shown improved striking. Amorim's wrestling is weak, often pulling guard. If Demopoulos can keep it standing, she has a chance. The pick is Amorim by submission, but with low confidence; the fight is more of a pass or a play on the over 2.5 rounds.
Paul picks Demopoulos, citing her durability, cardio, and pressure. He notes Amorim's poor striking and wrestling, and that Demopoulos has never been finished. He believes Demopoulos can win by decision or even submission, and sees value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Jaqueline Amorim despite sarcastically noting that Vanessa Demopoulos often gets favorable decisions. He praises Amorim's finishing ability, citing her armbar win over Cory McKenna and third-round finish of Monserrat Ruiz. He acknowledges Amorim's loss to Sam Hughes but attributes it to lack of strength to finish a rear-naked choke. He believes Amorim is improving on the feet and training at American Top Team gives her an edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 109 of 293 | 37% | 126 of 311 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 143 of 214 | 66% | 147 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 43 of 99 | 43% | 43 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 36 of 112 | 32% | 37 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 60 of 83 | 72% | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 30 of 82 | 36% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 53 of 77 | 68% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 109 of 293 | 37% | 76 of 250 | 18 of 25 | 15 of 18 | 106 of 289 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 143 of 214 | 66% | 86 of 150 | 22 of 26 | 35 of 38 | 140 of 211 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 43 of 99 | 43% | 25 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 43 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 30 of 54 | 55% | 15 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 12 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 36 of 112 | 32% | 24 of 98 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 110 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 60 of 83 | 72% | 37 of 58 | 10 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 30 of 82 | 36% | 27 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 80 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 53 of 77 | 68% | 34 of 55 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 13 | 50 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo sees Emily Ducote as the better striker with legitimate power and good wrestling defense, while Vanessa Demopoulos relies on volume and footwork but lacks real power. He expects Ducote to win a close decision, likely 29-28, due to her superior striking accuracy and durability. He notes the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet and suggests Vanessa plus 3.5 on the scorecard as a solid bet.
Cody points out Demopoulos has been gifted decisions but is often outlanded and outgrappled. He notes Ducote is a well-rounded fighter with college wrestling, a BJJ black belt, and good striking. Demopoulos's takedown attempts are often unsuccessful, and she struggles with volume. Cody expects Ducote to outland her significantly and win a clear decision.
Demopoulos got a gift decision in her last fight and is not technical with her punches. Ducote has solid all-around skills, throws great leg kicks and clean combinations, and will use her wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing. Expects Ducote to outbox and outstrike Demopoulos on the feet and win on the scorecards.
Paul believes Ducote's wrestling background and superior striking will be too much for Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos has been on the wrong end of controversial decisions but is often outworked. Ducote should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint Demopoulos, likely winning a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Vanessa Demopoulos, citing Ducote's superior activity and output. He argues that Demopoulos arguably lost several of her UFC fights, including against Kanako Murata, and that her volume is much lower than Ducote's. He expects Ducote to win a unanimous decision, 30-27, due to her three times higher output.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 86 of 144 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:42 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 70 of 116 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 10:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 17 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 30 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 23 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 31 of 65 | 47% | 21 of 49 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 10 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 14 of 19 |
| Kanako Murata | 34 of 64 | 53% | 27 of 55 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 40 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 17 of 35 | 48% | 10 of 22 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 |
| Kanako Murata | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 9 of 23 | 39% | 8 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 |
| Kanako Murata | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Kanako Murata | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 |
Angelo picks Kanako Murata despite a two-year layoff, reasoning that she is young (30) and likely to be the same or better. He highlights her great wrestling, solid BJJ defense, and constant forward pressure with takedown threats. He believes the same version of Murata from a few years ago dominates Vanessa Demopoulos. He has a small parlay including Murata, though he admits it's risky.
Big Brady is confident in Kanako Murata, praising her wrestling and grappling as some of the best in the division. He notes that Vanessa Demopoulos has poor takedown defense and is content to fight off her back, which plays into Murata's strengths. He expects Murata to control the fight on the ground and eventually find a submission, predicting a second-round submission win.
Cody picks Demopoulos as a dog, citing Murata's long layoff, broken arm, and lack of a Plan B if wrestling fails. He believes Demopoulos's BJJ and forward pressure could cause problems, and that Murata may be hesitant. He sees value in the plus money.
Daniel Levi picks Kanako Murata but is not confident at -360. He notes Murata's grinding top control and ability to neutralize opponents, but also acknowledges Vanessa Demopoulos's dangerous armbar from guard and her high effort. He sees Murata winning by decision but says it's a dog-or-pass situation and he wouldn't parlay it.
Lucrative James is confident Murata wins easily, citing her youth, prime condition, and all-around tools. He thinks Demopoulos is old and relies on low-percentage submissions like an armbar from guard. He predicts Murata by decision, as both are tough enough to survive.
Murata has been out for over two years, but she is a strong wrestler with top pressure. She should be able to close the distance, drag Demopoulos to the ground, and control her from top position. Demopoulos has shown holes in her striking and has been submitted before. However, the long layoff makes me hesitant on the chalky line. Expect Murata to win by decision.
Paul picks Demopoulos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Murata's low striking volume and long layoff, and believes Demopoulos can win a volume striking fight or via submission. He likes the plus 275 price and considers a submission prop.
The MMA Guru picks Kanako Murata over Vanessa Demopoulos. He likes that Murata took time off after an injury and likely improved. He notes Murata's win over Emily Ducote on the regional scene and her confidence in fighting a veteran early in her career. He criticizes Demopoulos for being 'coddled' and having questionable decisions, and believes Murata is more consistent. He predicts a close competitive decision but mentions potential finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 139 of 237 | 58% | 148 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 68 of 221 | 30% | 83 of 237 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 36 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 55 of 82 | 67% | 56 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 22 of 86 | 25% | 22 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 71 | 59% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 139 of 237 | 58% | 94 of 187 | 30 of 33 | 15 of 17 | 134 of 230 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 68 of 221 | 30% | 49 of 190 | 13 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 65 of 216 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 84 | 50% | 33 of 73 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 77 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 28 of 71 | 39% | 20 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 66 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 55 of 82 | 67% | 30 of 55 | 16 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 22 of 86 | 25% | 13 of 71 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 71 | 59% | 31 of 59 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 18 of 64 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 18 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.
Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.
Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.
The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.
Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.
The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.
Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 1 | 55 of 80 | 68% | 121 of 154 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:59 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 83 of 154 | 53% | 95 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 28 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 1 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 58 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 32 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 35 of 65 | 53% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 55 of 80 | 68% | 44 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 18 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 38 |
| Maria Oliveira | 83 of 154 | 53% | 55 of 124 | 20 of 21 | 8 of 9 | 80 of 151 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Maria Oliveira | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 27 of 36 | 75% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 19 |
| Maria Oliveira | 24 of 43 | 55% | 15 of 32 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
| Maria Oliveira | 35 of 65 | 53% | 25 of 55 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 66 of 139 | 47% | 71 of 144 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 62 of 133 | 46% | 81 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 30 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 35 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 66 of 139 | 47% | 34 of 100 | 25 of 31 | 7 of 8 | 40 of 107 | 26 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 62 of 133 | 46% | 49 of 116 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 58 of 128 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 11 of 32 | 34% | 6 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 17 of 45 | 37% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 24 of 52 | 46% | 14 of 41 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 44 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 27 of 56 | 48% | 20 of 48 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 35 | 15 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 18 of 32 | 56% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jinh Yu Frey, expecting her to slow the pace with bully-style grappling and beat Vanessa Demopoulos similarly to how Lupita Godinez did in the LFA. He acknowledges Vanessa's dangerous ground game and that lesser opponents have submitted Frey before, but believes Frey's physicality and forward pressure will earn her a unanimous decision win.
Big Brady picks Jinh Yu Frey to win by decision. He notes that Frey has a striking advantage and excellent takedown defense (90%), while Demopoulos has no wrestling and poor takedown success. However, he criticizes the -275 price as too high for a low-volume striker like Frey, and warns that Demopoulos's activity could make the fight look close. He ultimately expects Frey to outstrike Demopoulos and keep the fight standing.
Cody picks Frey, citing her better striking and takedown defense. He thinks she will win by decision, noting Demopoulos has never scored a takedown in the UFC. He warns against heavy investment at -260 but thinks Frey by decision is a solid play.
Paul picks Demopoulos by submission at +800, noting her only path to victory is a submission. He thinks the value is too good to pass up, even though Frey is the better striker. He acknowledges it's a longshot but worth a small bet.
The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, citing that Jinh Yu Frey lost to Kay Hansen, which is a bad look. He notes Demopoulos is younger (7-4 record) and moving down to strawweight, while Frey is 37. He expects Demopoulos to win by decision, winning scrambles and controlling the fight.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.
Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.
Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.
The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.
Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.
The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.
Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.
Single bet Julia by Ko at 11. Would be a lucky 15 but Karolina is stll trucking on, like a busted toyota.