UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 41
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Carlos Diego Ferreira
4.7 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.46 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.82 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
4.27 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.57 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Moneyline
Caesars -135
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetMGM +250
Decision
BetRivers +425
Michael Johnson
Moneyline
BetMGM +130
KO/TKO
FanDuel +340
Submission
BetWay +2500
Decision
BetRivers +350
Carlos Diego Ferreira - Fight History
KO R2 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 1 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 98 23% 23 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 1 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 12 of 45 26% 12 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 30 of 75 40% 22 of 63 4 of 6 4 of 6 20 of 61 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 98 23% 8 of 56 11 of 35 4 of 7 23 of 96 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 12 of 36 33% 7 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 53 20% 3 of 29 6 of 19 2 of 5 11 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 18 of 39 46% 15 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 12 of 45 26% 5 of 27 5 of 16 2 of 2 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)

Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.

If they're reasonable in any fashion, I will be betting on him.
"Alex is going to be the pick. My only concern is that he cuts so damn easily."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.

Third round knockout
"I'm going to say Ferrer wins this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.

"I will agree I'm flighty on it because of age, but if it weren't for age, I would be picking Ferreira. No question."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see Fera do a good job in terms of staving off the early threat that Hernandez presents with this power and explosivity and then really start wearing the veteran down with his pace, pressure, and grappling. Look …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"Carlos Diego Feer is going to beat Alexander Hernandez. ... I'm going to go with Carlos Diego Vega getting this one done. Second or third round TKO finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.

"I kind of have to pick Diego Ferreira. Because that Damon Jackson fight was just last year."
CANCEL vs King Green
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.

Maybe over 1.5 rounds
"Diego is going to be the pick. He's a little bit older, but he's durable, he's dangerous, and he has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.

Ferreira by KO, round 1
"Give me FRA here. And I'm going to take FRA to win this fight by first round knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.

Knockout in round two or three; CDF finishes Green
"I'm going with Carlos Diego Fea. ... I think CDF's got Bobby Green and plus Bobby Green, how many more KO losses can we see?"
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 56 of 98 57% 195 of 269 6 of 11 54% 0 0 10:50
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 41 of 61 67% 84 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 21 of 31 67% 43 of 54 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:11
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 16 68% 27 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Grant Dawson 0 21 of 39 53% 64 of 90 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:44
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 17 of 28 60% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
3 Grant Dawson 0 14 of 28 50% 88 of 125 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:55
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 13 of 17 76% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 56 of 98 57% 51 of 91 3 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 47 7 of 8 30 of 43
Carlos Diego Ferreira 41 of 61 67% 31 of 48 6 of 9 4 of 4 31 of 51 6 of 6 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 21 of 31 67% 19 of 28 0 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 18 5 of 5 6 of 8
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 16 68% 5 of 9 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Grant Dawson 21 of 39 53% 21 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 16 1 of 2 16 of 21
Carlos Diego Ferreira 17 of 28 60% 15 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1
3 Grant Dawson 14 of 28 50% 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 13 of 17 76% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-258), Ferreira (+210)

Round 1
A generational gap separates the two lightweights about to set foot in the cage, with the fighters 10 years apart. Dawson (22-2-1, 10-1-1 UFC) is the far younger at 30, while Ferreira (19-5, 10-5 UFC) is the kind of guy who wants to get punched in the face for his 40th birthday. If he wins, one hopes that commentator Joe Rogan will urge the crowd to sing to him, but it is an uphill battle to get to that point. The third man in the Octagon for this fringe 155-pound contender pairing is referee Frank Trigg, who sits back as the fighters respectfully touch gloves. Dawson engages in assuming the center of the cage, and his first strike is a spinning back fist that buzzes past his foe. Ferreira moves to the side, aims a low kick, and chants for “USA” come down in support of Dawson. That excites him to the point of hurling a spinning wheel kick that partially lands, and he ignores any counter to spin and plant his foot on Ferreira’s ribcage. Dawson steps in with a right hand, and after connecting with a few punches, he spins with another back kick. Ferreira answers him with a surprisingly effective calf kick, and he goes to it again only to get caught with a pair of overhand rights. Ferreira returns fire with punches until Dawson shoots in on his hips and takes him to the canvas. Ferreira stands back up and leans against the fence, and he gets kneed legally in the face as he has his hands on the mat but no knees. Ferreira lowers himself to the ground to scramble and get up, and Dawson puts him in a precarious position by holding Ferreira’s leg in the air. With Ferreira leaned over and one hand on the ground, Dawson kicks him upside the head twice in what are now legal blows, and Ferreira panics and drops to the ground. Dawson looks to assume top control, and Ferreira hand-fights to keep Dawson from shifting around to take his back. When Ferreira turns to escape, Dawson follows him over and flattens him out while in full guard. Dawson bucks, sits up and drills the Brazilian with a solid left hand, before laying flat to smother. Ferreira pushes off to force Dawson to stand, and he belts “KGD” in the face with an upkick that appears to hurt him. Dawson lowers himself into the guard as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 2
The fighters bump fists to get going, and Ferreira leads the dance with a front kick. Ferreira follows it with a flurry of punches to get Dawson’s attention, and his forward momentum allows him to take Dawson off his feet. Ferreira attempts a leglock from a strange angle, and he attempts to take Dawson’s back but slides off. Dawson stands up and misses with a back fist, and the two walk towards one another and starting swinging heavy leather. Ferreira catches Dawson with a huge right hand, only to get taken off his feet with an easy takedown. Dawson postures up to strike, exerting full pressure on his foe while dragging things to a crawl. The audience responds in kind, not thrilled by the grind being embraced. When Ferreira sits up against the fence, Dawson sucks his hips out and lays into him with ground-and-pound. Dawson continues to force Ferreira flat on his back, unleashing strikes any time he can find an opening. When Ferreira raises his legs up for a possible choke attempt, Dawson pushes past it and smashes into the Brazilian with a crushing elbow. A second comes shortly thereafter, authoring a loud clacking sound from the elbow connecting with some face bone. The ground strikes continue as the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
At the very first second of the round, Dawson rushes for a takedown. Ferreira fights off the first attempt, and he scrambles to set up an unorthodox leglock when Dawson drags him down. The submission is nowhere to be found, and Dawson rolls him over to his back and gets in the guard. Dawson beats down on Ferreira slowly and methodically, and suddenly, Trigg tells them to get back to their feet and stands them up without a warning. This lights a fire under Ferreira’s backside, who swings for the bleachers. Dawson does the same, and he sets Ferreira to a knee with a huge right hand. Dawson tackles Ferreira to the floor, and he gets right to it with body shots and the occasional one up to the head. Trigg almost immediately calls for more action, and Dawson proves this by posturing up to rain down heavy blows. Ferreira closes his guard and locks Dawson down in hopes of a standup, but Dawson pulls through it and starts pummeling the Brazilian with his fists. The audience is not happy about Dawson’s ground assault, and Dawson shuts them up for a moment by standing up and beating Ferreira down with high-amplitude punches. Dawson backs off Trigg by connecting with further firepower, and Ferreira manages to sit up but gives up his back. Dawson gladly takes it and wraps up the body triangle, his knees red and layers of skin ripped off from his takedown efforts. With seconds to spare, “KGD” attempts a rear-naked choke, but there is not enough time to wrap it up. Time elapses, and the fighters hug it out. This makes it five decisions in a row to start off this event.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Angelo picks Grant Dawson to win, expecting his relentless wrestling and control to be effective. However, he plans to bet on Diego Ferreira via 'inside the distance decision no action' prop, believing Ferreira is tough enough to avoid being finished and could potentially finish Dawson. He acknowledges Dawson's boring style but respects his wrestling.

Bet on Diego Ferreira inside the distance decision no action (finish only).
"I'm picking Grant Dawson to win but I will be betting on Diego FAA"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Cody picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and cardio, but notes his chin has been exposed (Bobby Green KO, Ricky Glenn draw). Dawson has taken down strong wrestlers like Mark Madsen and Ismagulov. Ferreira is a dangerous striker and BJJ black belt who has been taken down many times but often survives. Cody believes Dawson's wrestling will be the difference, but Ferreira's power and submission threat make it risky. He moves Dawson down in his parlay.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"Dawson's the pick again it's just realistic expectations I've moved him further along than you might expect to see a guy that's minus 270"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel picks Ferreira, citing his elite Jiu-Jitsu and striking advantage. He notes that Dawson is one-dimensional and has been knocked out before. Daniel is concerned about Ferreira's age (40) but thinks his ground game and striking are superior. He mentions that Dawson's losses are exciting because he gets knocked out, and Ferreira could exploit Dawson's holes.

Daniel says it's a doger pass situation and would put a little on Ferreira. He mentions Ferreira's Jiu-Jitsu and Dawson's lack of standup.
"I'm actually going to go Diego for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Grant Dawson

The host points out Ferreira turns 40 on fight day and expects him to show decline. Dawson is a streaking contender who should implement his wrestling, break down Ferreira, and finish him in the second or third round.

finishes in round 2 or 3
"Dawson who should do a good job in terms of implementing his wrestling approach breaking down Diego faera and eventually finishing him in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira as an underdog. He notes that Ferreira is a more refined striker with knockout power and a BJJ black belt, giving him multiple paths to victory. Paul points out that Dawson has been knocked out and has cardio issues in later rounds. Ferreira has shown he can survive takedowns and submit opponents. Paul believes Ferreira's chaotic striking and opportunistic submissions will cause problems for Dawson, and at plus money, he sees value.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think you could do a lot worse than Diego frer if you're looking for dog shot this week I'm on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira over Grant Dawson. He highlights Ferreira's scrambling ability against elite grapplers like Gamrot and Dariush, and his power in his hands with nasty knockout ability. He notes Ferreira's recent momentum, including a win over Rebecki and a knockout of Michael Johnson. He worries about Dawson if he can't get his grappling going, and believes Ferreira will win.

"I am finally going to pick Carlos Diego FAA to win a fight I've done it before on rare occasion but I think I'm going to pick him to win Grant Dawson is reliant on grappling"
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 123 of 241 51% 151 of 272 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:12
Mateusz Rębecki 1 52 of 137 37% 60 of 146 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 21 of 65 32% 28 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 1 30 of 60 50% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 40 of 79 50% 49 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Mateusz Rębecki 0 16 of 48 33% 19 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 0:55
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 97 63% 74 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Mateusz Rębecki 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 123 of 241 51% 94 of 189 28 of 51 1 of 1 94 of 203 0 of 1 29 of 37
Mateusz Rębecki 52 of 137 37% 34 of 109 11 of 21 7 of 7 46 of 129 0 of 0 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 21 of 65 32% 15 of 51 6 of 14 0 of 0 21 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 60 50% 21 of 51 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 52 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 40 of 79 50% 31 of 61 8 of 17 1 of 1 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 2
Mateusz Rębecki 16 of 48 33% 12 of 39 1 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 97 63% 48 of 77 14 of 20 0 of 0 35 of 62 0 of 0 27 of 35
Mateusz Rębecki 6 of 29 20% 1 of 19 3 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-310), Ferreira (+250)

Round 1
Momentum is a powerful tool. Once on a solid six-fight win streak, Ferreira (18-5, 9-5 UFC) has since dropped three of four and now stares down his 40th birthday at the beginning of next year. Eight years younger and with his own 16-fight victorious stretch in tow, Rebecki (19-1, 3-0 UFC) has it going for him. Whether the torch is passed or the older man can get it done, referee Gary Copeland will keep tabs on the lightweight contest. The sportsmen gladly bump their fists together in eager anticipation of inflicting bodily harm on one another. Rebecki surges forward immediately, throwing caution to the wind swinging fists. Ferreira stays composed and prods out with front kicks, and he dips away from the power shots that fly past him. Rebecki continues attacking relentlessly, and he knocks Ferreira to his seat momentarily courtesy of fierce right hand. The Brazilian jumps right back up, and he keeps Rebecki honest with front kicks and a solid body kick. Ferreira lands with a left and a right, and a head kick gets Rebecki’s attention. He throws another high kick, and Rebecki crowds him more. Ferreira sneaks in a left hand as Rebecki walks forward with impunity, only to be met with three flush shots on the jaw. Rebecki strings three punches together, and Ferreira attacks the body with his foot. Ferreira comes up short on a head kick, and Rebecki buzzes his hair with an overhand right. The two take turns blasting one another, and Rebecki gets the better of an exchange with a solid right hand that appears to hurt the Brazilian. Ferreira fires back with bad intentions, and his head kick comes increasingly close to landing cleanly. Rebecki jabs his way into offense, and Ferreira answers them with a heavy body kick that makes Rebecki shake his head. Rebecki leans forward and when he attacks, his head smacks into Ferreira’s. Ferreira wipes his head, and Copeland notes the head clash. Rebecki unloads a left hand that knocks Ferreira clean off his feet, and he dives down into the guard in hopes of finishing the job. Rebecki gets slowed down by the active guard of his opponent, and he cannot pass guard or land much of note while Ferreira clears his head. The round ends with Rebecki on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together to open the round, and Rebecki says hello with a body kick and a powerful left hand. Ferreira drops to the mat, and he bounces back up and stings Rebecki with a left hook of his own. The Polish fighter has a foot bounce off the cup when kicking, and he apologizes as Ferreira signals he is ok. Rebecki ducks a right hand and shoots with a double, driving through the hips and putting Ferreira on his back. Ferreira hits the mat and threatens with a triangle choke, and his legs allow him to sweep and throw Rebecki off of him. Rebecki loads up on a big left hand that misses the mark, and Ferreira follows him with three punches up top while Rebecki’s eyes are swelling up fast. Ferreira jabs and absorbs a left hand on the nose that makes him tweak it to check if it is damaged. Rebecki lurches forward with a series of rangy punches, and he gets backed off as a high kick whizzes past his head. Rebecki bulldozes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he manages to put the Brazilian on his seat for a moment. Ferreira climbs back up and works his jab, and he slips the most dangerous blows coming at him so that he can counter with three of his own. Ferreira flicks out jabs and a head kick, and he backs the Polish fighter off with body shots chained into punches in the head. The jab has split open the side of Rebecki’s eye, and Ferreira releases a number of punches to the swelling and bloody face. Copeland calls time and brings in the doctor, and Rebecki is cleared quickly and gets back to it. Ferreira drills his man in the head with a combination of punches ending with a head kick, and Rebecki catches it and tackles Ferriera to the floor. Ferreira scrambles to work his way up, and he turns the tables and drags Rebecki down from behind. The Brazilian climbs into full mount and he sits down on an arm-triangle choke, but time expires before he can get the tap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 3
The lightweights touch ‘em up to begin, and Ferreira leads the dance with a few punches up top and a front kick. Rebecki swings back, and Ferreira is the fresher and more accurate man of the two as he lands cleaner. Ferreira looks for his jab and kicks the body, and he checks Rebecki’s chin with a one-two. Ferreira powers ahead with another short combo, and he lines up several head kicks that get blocked but have an impact. Rebecki loads up on a left hand, and Ferreira stands firm and lets him have it with a swarm of punches that stagger him. Rebecki takes a breath and kicks the lead leg, and he gets driven back with a straight right hand. Ferreira times Rebecki ducking down for a level change with an uppercut, and he chews up the midsection with power shots. Ferreira walks through power punches from the Polish fighter, and he gets taken down and turns the corner to stand back up. Ferreira goes after Rebecki’s leg to sweep him and turn him over, and he finds his way on top and slides straight into mount. Ferreira bombards Rebecki with punches and elbows, and Rebecki twists and turns in any effort to escape. Ferreira sits on him awkwardly and works Rebecki over with his fists, until Rebecki muscles his way to his knees. Ferreira drags his man down and moves back to mount, and he gets going with a number of elbows as Copeland is watching closely. Copeland asks for Rebecki to fight back, and Rebecki sits up to protect himself from further damage. Rebecki somehow slides out the back door, and both men get back to their feet with a little under a minute to go. Ferreira jabs the body with a kick, and he continues to aim strikes to the midsection. Ferreira knocks Rebecki to the wall with a one-two, and he shoots for an easy takedown and throws Rebecki to the mat so he can hop into mount.
Ferreira postures up and drills Rebecki with punches and hammerfists. Ferreira keeps striking, sensing the finish might be right around the corner, and Copeland waves the fight off to save Rebecki from any further harm.
The Polish fighter’s long win streak is now a thing of the past, and the shellacking from “CDF” has made him nearly unrecognizable. This is a mighty comeback performance for the 39-year-old, who survived a tough first round and put away a man that came into this bout the winner of his last 16.

The Official Result
Diego Ferreira def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:51 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.

"I got to go matal rebecky all day long all day long very confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.

"give me recki to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.

"rebecky minus 400 as it continues to grow you're going to run into some banana peel pricing but yeah no he's the pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.

"This is going to be an honorable passing of the torch."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.

"I'm going to go roesy and roesy by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.

"I expect rebecky to win on Saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.

"I'm going with my man matus rebecky... he wins this one."
KO (punch) R2 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 30 of 71 42% 17 of 46 10 of 21 3 of 4 29 of 70 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 32 of 58 55% 13 of 34 17 of 20 2 of 4 32 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 24 of 55 43% 13 of 37 8 of 14 3 of 4 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 12 of 29 13 of 14 2 of 3 27 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.

"I like Michael Johnson as The Underdog in this spot I fully expect this to be a dog fight it should be close but I don't want to hear any narrative about how old Michael Johnson is because Diego's even …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.

decision
"give me Michael Johnson to pull off the upset but trusting Michael Johnson with my money is not something I've done in a very long time"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.

"I'm just going to take Carlos Jagger Pharaoh but again how could you feel good about this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm just gonna pick him too. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.

"I'm gonna pick Carlos Diego because I think in both of their primes Diego wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.

"if Michael Johnson's striking defense and his durability holds up in this matchup as well as his takedown defense he should be able to style on Diego fejera in the Striking realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"Carlos Diego Ferreira at this point in the week will be my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Michael Johnson ... I think he's going to KO him as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm still gonna pick him. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson and I'm not yet willing to believe that he's just entirely erased that problem."
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
TKO (submission to knee to the body) R2 3:26 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 36 of 101 35% 37 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 25 of 58 43% 31 of 67 4 of 7 57% 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 56 32% 19 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 14 of 31 45% 20 of 39 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:27
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 36 of 101 35% 18 of 69 12 of 23 6 of 9 35 of 98 1 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 25 of 58 43% 15 of 46 5 of 7 5 of 5 22 of 54 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 56 32% 7 of 34 5 of 13 6 of 9 17 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 14 of 31 45% 7 of 23 4 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 45 40% 11 of 35 7 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 27 40% 8 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, placing 3 units on him at -200. He believes Gamrot should be -350 or -400, as he can win striking exchanges and dominate the wrestling. Angelo notes that Ferreira is a good BJJ player but Gamrot's top control is a big obstacle, and Ferreira would need to sweep to win. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling neutralizes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu and that Gamrot is a future champion.

3 units on moneyline at -200
"i think camera at minus 200 is actually low this is the guy that should be minus 350 minus 400 so i'm all over gamron"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot by decision, praising his well-rounded skills, cardio, and IQ. He notes Ferreira's age (36) and cardio concerns, but acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and solid striking. He expects a competitive fight but believes Gamrot's volume and takedown mixing will earn him a decision win. He thinks the line is wider than the fight will be.

decision
"give me gamrot to win give me gameroute to win a decision but i do think it will be a lot more competitive than that line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody is a Gamrot fan, calling him 'Polish GSP' for his well-rounded skills. He notes Gamrot's excellent cardio, striking, and grappling, and that he now trains at American Top Team. Cody sees a path to victory via smothering wrestling and pace, similar to how Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie beat Ferreira. He acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and crafty striking but thinks Gamrot's youth and cardio will be too much.

"I'm going to take my two scammers but I do fully recognize that ferreira is still alive man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Levi leans toward Mateusz Gamrot but is not fully confident. He respects Ferreira's elite jiu-jitsu but notes Ferreira has struggled with cardio and weight cuts in recent fights, gassing against Gregor Gillespie and Beneil Dariush. Levi thinks Gamrot's wrestling and top control will be effective as the fight progresses, especially if Ferreira tires. He acknowledges Gamrot's unorthodox takedown style and solid chin, but is wary of Ferreira's submission threats early.

Gamrot by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think in this one I'm leaning Gamrot... as Diego starts to tire, that's where I think Gamrot can just get a little bit extended top control."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob agrees with Angelo, calling Gamrot the real deal. He notes that Ferreira is a Fortis MMA guy who tends to fall back against top competition. Jacob believes Gamrot's patient, controlling wrestling will allow him to take Ferreira down and wait for an opportunity to finish. He thinks Gamrot will dominate from start to finish and possibly get an early finish.

"camera is the real deal a hundred percent agree with you i think this should be minus four hundred"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot by decision, believing his chain wrestling and improved striking will allow him to outwork Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira is slowing down and Gamrot is on the rise. He likes the decision prop at +145.

Gamrot by decision (+145)
"I like gamra by decision as well uh i do think dario mixon is striking and takedowns well enough here to get the judge's decision here gamma by decision plus 145 count me in"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul agrees with Gamrot, citing his five-round experience in KSW and his ability to keep a high pace. He notes that Ferreira has struggled against wrestlers with good cardio, as seen in the Gillespie fight. Paul thinks Gamrot should execute a wrestling-heavy game plan and grind Ferreira down, but he doesn't love the price.

"I think he's the rightful favorite so I'm with you here I'll pick I'll pick gamrot but I don't love it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by second-round TKO. He notes Gamrot is well-rounded with good grappling, stand-up, cardio, and chin. He thinks Ferreira has slowed down recently and is 36 years old. He expects Gamrot to use feints and takedown threats to land a right hand, similar to the Holtzman fight. He sees Gamrot's power and speed being too much.

second round TKO
"i'm going with gamra the gamer matteo scamrott"
TKO (punches) R2 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregor Gillespie 0 31 of 60 51% 37 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 2 1:06
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 45 of 62 72% 53 of 70 4 of 8 50% 0 0 5:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregor Gillespie 0 26 of 45 57% 30 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:28
2 Gregor Gillespie 0 5 of 15 33% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:08
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 35 of 42 83% 43 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregor Gillespie 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 39 3 of 3 18 of 18
Carlos Diego Ferreira 45 of 62 72% 37 of 52 7 of 9 1 of 1 9 of 17 6 of 8 30 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregor Gillespie 26 of 45 57% 26 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 25 2 of 2 18 of 18
Carlos Diego Ferreira 10 of 20 50% 5 of 13 4 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 13 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Gregor Gillespie 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 35 of 42 83% 32 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1 30 of 37
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gregor Gillespie

Big Brady believes Gillespie's wrestling will be the difference, as he averages 7.02 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy. He notes Ferreira has 68% takedown defense and was taken down five times in his last fight. Brady thinks Gillespie will control the fight on the mat with top control and superior cardio, winning a decision. He is not worried about Ferreira's submission threat off his back, as Ferreira has only two UFC submissions. He says the moneyline at -175 is worth a look.

Gillespie by decision (plus 150 worth a look)
"I'm gonna take lisby to win i'm going to say by decision i really don't see him finishing ferreira maybe like a third round finisher."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling him the best jiu-jitsu guy in the division besides Oliveira and Dariush. He argues that Gillespie is overrated, citing his 50/50 fight with Jason Gonzalez and his loss to Kevin Lee. He believes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu will be too much for Gillespie, predicting a submission win. He notes Ferreira's ability to get back to his feet and his improved boxing, and thinks Gillespie will struggle to hold him down.

submission
"i actually think that saturday night live at the apex that uh that diego ferreira is going to be the first man in mma history to submit gregor gillespie"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Gregor Gillespie

The MMA Guru picks Gregor Gillespie over Carlos Diego Ferreira, acknowledging it's a risky pick. He trusts Gillespie's wrestling style, which avoids being submitted by staying in body lock positions rather than full guard. He also notes Ferreira took the fight on short notice and Gillespie had a full camp, which benefits Gillespie. He predicts a unanimous decision win.

"i'm gonna go with uh gregor gillespie in my opinion i think he's a very risky pick though"
LOSS vs Beneil Dariush
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 54 of 121 44% 74 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 116 53% 74 of 132 5 of 15 33% 0 0 7:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 21 of 39 53% 24 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 29 of 51 56% 32 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:06
2 Beneil Dariush 0 14 of 24 58% 30 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 10 of 22 45% 18 of 34 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:37
3 Beneil Dariush 0 19 of 58 32% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 43 53% 24 of 44 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 54 of 121 44% 43 of 104 10 of 15 1 of 2 45 of 109 5 of 5 4 of 7
Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 116 53% 46 of 98 10 of 12 6 of 6 51 of 93 3 of 5 8 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 21 of 39 53% 17 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 1 19 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 29 of 51 56% 24 of 46 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 38 0 of 2 7 of 11
2 Beneil Dariush 14 of 24 58% 10 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 2
Carlos Diego Ferreira 10 of 22 45% 7 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 7
3 Beneil Dariush 19 of 58 32% 16 of 52 2 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 53 0 of 0 3 of 5
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 43 53% 15 of 35 6 of 6 2 of 2 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady slightly edges Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing his durability and output advantage. He notes that Dariush has been knocked out three times and Ferreira is not a knockout artist, but Ferreira's volume could be key. He expects a very close decision and admits it's a coin-flip fight.

"I'm going to slightly edge Ferreira to get it done, I'm going to say by a very close decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, noting his wrestling and top control advantage. He acknowledges Ferreira's improved boxing and footwork, but believes Dariush's grappling and ability to avoid submissions will be key. He mentions Dariush's past win over Ferreira and his experience against high-level grapplers.

"i'm gonna go with benil here via decision i think he can mix in takedowns avoid the submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Ferreira has transformed his game since joining Fortis MMA, showing improved striking, pace, and pressure. He averages 283 strikes thrown per fight and has great cardio. His takedown defense has improved, and he gets back to his feet quickly. Dariush has been in firefights recently and may struggle with Ferreira's constant forward pressure. Ferreira's durability and chin are solid. I expect Ferreira to push the pace, outwork Dariush, and win a decision. The line is fair and Ferreira is the better fighter now.

Ferreira by decision
"i like diego feje here i like him roughly around that even money we got minus -125 i think that's a solid line too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush in a close fight, noting the odds should be 50-50. He praises Dariush's youth, activity, and improving stand-up, citing his performance against Edson Barboza. He questions Ferreira's wins over aging opponents and thinks Dariush's grappling will keep him safe. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go with benildarius i feel like okay and that is very on the spot because this is a very even bout"
Michael Johnson - Fight History
LOSS vs Drew Dober
KO R2 1:53 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Drew Dober 1 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 22 of 55 40% 9 of 33 7 of 14 6 of 8 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 27 of 76 35% 18 of 55 0 of 11 9 of 10 27 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 18 of 51 35% 9 of 31 0 of 11 9 of 9 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 9 of 25 36% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.

Dober by second round knockout
"Give me give me Dober as a dog with very little confidence, but I'll take Dober to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.

"Ang Michael Johnson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.

Odds: Johnson opened at -185, now -122; Dober opened at +160, now +102.
"I think I have to take Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.

"I'm going to go Drew Dober to come out here and get this upset after an early scare."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.

Fight ends via KO
"I am picking Michael Johnson to win the fight. The reason I'm picking him to win the fight is because he's faster than Drew Dober and hits probably just as hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.

Johnson by knockout
"I have to lean with Johnson and I think you have to make him the slight favorite because of the technical advantages that he has in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.

"Johnson either detonates one upside that chin or just puts in the better of volume over the course of two of those three rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.

KO in round two
"Drew Dober is gonna knock out Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.

Odds: Johnson -122, Dober +102.
"Me too. Unless Drew Dover hits his legendary lap drop."
UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.
"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision
"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout
"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 80 of 195 41% 81 of 196 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Daniel Zellhuber 0 52 of 182 28% 52 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 30 of 77 38% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 66 25% 17 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 80 of 195 41% 27 of 100 42 of 81 11 of 14 77 of 189 0 of 0 3 of 6
Daniel Zellhuber 52 of 182 28% 19 of 125 27 of 48 6 of 9 50 of 180 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 24 of 56 42% 4 of 22 15 of 28 5 of 6 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 1
Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 46 26% 2 of 23 7 of 17 3 of 6 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 77 38% 14 of 47 10 of 23 6 of 7 27 of 72 0 of 0 3 of 5
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 66 25% 7 of 51 9 of 14 1 of 1 16 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 26 of 62 41% 9 of 31 17 of 30 0 of 1 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 23 of 70 32% 10 of 51 11 of 17 2 of 2 22 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.

"Daniel Huber is the pick. I like Michael Johnson. Father time comes from everybody."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.

Zellhuber by second round knockout
"I think Zel Heber is going to put it on him throughout the fight and eventually either touch the chin or ... win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.

"I'm still picking Zellhuber for pace and because I do think that Johnson's form of choosiness is still not one that's safe."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.

knockout within two rounds
"I'm going with the Mexican fighter here as I think he can pick apart Johnson from distance and I think that will eventually line up a big knockout for him and I expect it to happen within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Zel Huba over Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.

"I'm going to take Zellhuber too. On a completely dumb predictive algorithm kind of level."
KO (punch) R2 2:03 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 1 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Ottman Azaitar 0 16 of 56 28% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 37 27% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 1 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 19 of 50 38% 13 of 37 3 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 46 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 16 of 56 28% 8 of 39 7 of 12 1 of 5 15 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 11 of 31 35% 6 of 21 3 of 6 2 of 4 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 37 27% 5 of 25 5 of 9 0 of 3 9 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 8 of 19 42% 7 of 16 0 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ottman Azaitar 6 of 19 31% 3 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.

Caution on betting due to Johnson's chin.
"Johnson is the better fighter everywhere outside of just raw power and even though he is old he should be able to control the Striking potentially get takedowns and ultimately win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.

fight doesn't go to distance
"I'm gonna pick Michael Johnson just because I have to because he's he's such he's so much better than Atman a zitar at everything but aitar has power and Michael Johnson loves to lose fights he's supposed to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.

"I'm going Michael Johnson as well I think Michael Johnson just beats him I I honestly do."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.

"I don't think he's doing MMA is a thing where he cares about winning MMA fights. It's just about taking them every now and then still to serve as a buffer to remind people that he's still a pro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.

"I'm gonna take opman aitar for the upset win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.

wins by KO in round 1 or early round 2
"I believe that will be the case here once again as he goes up against heavy haired opman Zer who should be able to crash the pocket consistently and end up finding a knockout Victory within the first round and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I like the unders in this fight Michael Johnson is my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to say Michael Johnson chins otoman aitar in about round two"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.

Azaitar opened at +186, Johnson at -214; Zane notes the odds are widening in Johnson's favor and he can't argue with it.
"I think it's a pretty straightforward Michael Johnson pick for me. 38 years be damned."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 61 of 112 54% 80 of 138 4 of 8 50% 0 0 6:02
Darrius Flowers 0 33 of 64 51% 52 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Darrius Flowers 0 20 of 36 55% 20 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 40 of 64 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:12
Darrius Flowers 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Michael Johnson 0 2 of 6 33% 8 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:44
Darrius Flowers 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 61 of 112 54% 16 of 47 36 of 52 9 of 13 58 of 109 0 of 0 3 of 3
Darrius Flowers 33 of 64 51% 10 of 31 9 of 12 14 of 21 29 of 60 1 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 32 of 60 53% 7 of 23 17 of 27 8 of 10 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darrius Flowers 20 of 36 55% 1 of 9 6 of 8 13 of 19 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 8 of 20 19 of 25 0 of 1 25 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 2
Darrius Flowers 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Darrius Flowers 6 of 8 75% 5 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darrius Flowers

Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.

"The pick has to be Darius for all of those factors."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.

second round submission
"I'm going to hesitantly pick Michael Johnson whenever you pick Michael Johnson you have to do it very hesitantly but I'm going to pick him to win this fight second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.

"Johnson's a guy that seems to have the superior skill set in pretty much every aspect of the game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.

"I had low confidence earlier when I originally started this matchup but the closer that we're getting to the fight I'm starting to think that Johnson is a no-brainer play here especially at that minus 125 line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I like Johnson I like Johnson to get a job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.

TKO in the second round or first round
"I'm going with Michael Johnson over Darius flowers... I reckon he's going to get it done by TKO in the second round or first round over Darius flowers."
KO (punch) R2 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 30 of 71 42% 17 of 46 10 of 21 3 of 4 29 of 70 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 32 of 58 55% 13 of 34 17 of 20 2 of 4 32 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 24 of 55 43% 13 of 37 8 of 14 3 of 4 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 12 of 29 13 of 14 2 of 3 27 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.

"I like Michael Johnson as The Underdog in this spot I fully expect this to be a dog fight it should be close but I don't want to hear any narrative about how old Michael Johnson is because Diego's even …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.

decision
"give me Michael Johnson to pull off the upset but trusting Michael Johnson with my money is not something I've done in a very long time"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.

"I'm just going to take Carlos Jagger Pharaoh but again how could you feel good about this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm just gonna pick him too. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.

"I'm gonna pick Carlos Diego because I think in both of their primes Diego wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.

"if Michael Johnson's striking defense and his durability holds up in this matchup as well as his takedown defense he should be able to style on Diego fejera in the Striking realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"Carlos Diego Ferreira at this point in the week will be my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Michael Johnson ... I think he's going to KO him as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm still gonna pick him. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson and I'm not yet willing to believe that he's just entirely erased that problem."
WIN vs Marc Diakiese
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 83 of 181 45% 83 of 181 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Marc Diakiese 0 55 of 127 43% 55 of 127 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 41 of 79 51% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 83 of 181 45% 37 of 116 37 of 55 9 of 10 79 of 171 3 of 7 1 of 3
Marc Diakiese 55 of 127 43% 21 of 80 24 of 31 10 of 16 52 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 12 of 41 29% 5 of 29 5 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 2
Marc Diakiese 23 of 38 60% 6 of 16 9 of 14 8 of 8 22 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 61 49% 14 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 4 30 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 40 27% 5 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 41 of 79 51% 18 of 48 19 of 27 4 of 4 38 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 1
Marc Diakiese 21 of 49 42% 10 of 35 10 of 11 1 of 3 19 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."
LOSS vs Jamie Mullarkey
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 1 66 of 190 34% 68 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Michael Johnson 0 96 of 217 44% 96 of 218 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 1 18 of 42 42% 20 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Michael Johnson 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 45 of 95 47% 45 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 30 of 91 32% 30 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Johnson 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 66 of 190 34% 42 of 147 22 of 41 2 of 2 58 of 179 4 of 5 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 96 of 217 44% 54 of 160 21 of 34 21 of 23 83 of 195 11 of 18 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 42 42% 12 of 33 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 20 of 53 37% 10 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 7 18 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 4
2 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 57 31% 11 of 44 6 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 45 of 95 47% 24 of 69 11 of 15 10 of 11 34 of 79 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 30 of 91 32% 19 of 70 11 of 21 0 of 0 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 31 of 69 44% 20 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.

Moneyline bet on Michael Johnson as underdog.
"I think he wins this fight... I think I'm going money line bet on michael johnson as well two to one underdog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.

"i'm going to take jamie malarkey to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.

"sign me up for jamie malarkey but again the price tag is not great and i wouldn't fault anybody for for banking on michael johnson's uh great footwork and huge power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
Michael Johnson

The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.

1 unit on Johnson moneyline +225. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -174. Parlay includes under 2.5 for this fight.
"I'm also going to go one unit on Michael Johnson plus 225. again a value play here in a sense I think he's the better Striker than malarkey I think he's faster than malarkey I think he can knock him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.

"i'm kind of i kind of want to bet the underdog here but i don't want to pull the trigger on michael johnson because the guy's an absolute flake"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.

finish in round three
"I got to go with Jamie Mullarkey here."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.

"I like Michael Johnson as The Underdog in this spot I fully expect this to be a dog fight it should be close but I don't want to hear any narrative about how old Michael Johnson is because Diego's even older"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.

decision
"give me Michael Johnson to pull off the upset but trusting Michael Johnson with my money is not something I've done in a very long time"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.

"I'm just going to take Carlos Jagger Pharaoh but again how could you feel good about this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm just gonna pick him too. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.

"I'm gonna pick Carlos Diego because I think in both of their primes Diego wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.

"if Michael Johnson's striking defense and his durability holds up in this matchup as well as his takedown defense he should be able to style on Diego fejera in the Striking realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"Carlos Diego Ferreira at this point in the week will be my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Michael Johnson ... I think he's going to KO him as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm still gonna pick him. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson and I'm not yet willing to believe that he's just entirely erased that problem."