vs
-188 +180
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot
3.29 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.96 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
5.15 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jalin Turner
5.79 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.54 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Mateusz Gamrot
Moneyline
FanDuel -188
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +300
Decision
BetRivers +270
Jalin Turner
Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +470
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetRivers +650
Mateusz Gamrot - Fight History
Submission R2 4:19 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 34 52% 38 of 56 4 of 6 66% 1 0 6:50
Esteban Ribovics 0 4 of 21 19% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 21 66% 24 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 13 30% 14 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 34 52% 15 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 14 of 16
Esteban Ribovics 4 of 21 19% 2 of 15 0 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 21 66% 11 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Esteban Ribovics 1 of 12 8% 0 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Esteban Ribovics 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
Submission R2 2:48 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 11 of 33 33% 18 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:35
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 3 of 8 37% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:47
Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
2 Charles Oliveira 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 3 of 6 4 of 6 10 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 42 42% 16 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Oliveira 8 of 25 32% 4 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 35 40% 13 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.

bet on Gamrot at -120
"I think Mateusz Gamrot is just too experienced, too well-trained, too ingrained in American Top Team to get caught in a submission on the ground. I do not see that happening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.

knockout
"I'm going to say Olivera finds a finish. I'm going to say he's the first person to finish Matteas. I think it's going to be a war... third round knockout for Charles Ola."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.

inside the distance (+160)
"Charles is my pick, but I'm a little scared because I don't know if he's like fully all the way in still at this point."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.

"I'm going to end up picking Charles Olivea in this fight, boys. I just feel like he's got, you know, way more danger on the feet. way more danger on the ground and more damage upside, more big moment upside."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.

"I lean Charles Olivea in this fight. And the reason I say I think is because it is a close fight, you know, and I'm not confident either way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.

Gamrot by decision
"I'm going to go Gamrot here. I'm going to go Gamrot by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.

inside the distance (+160)
"I got Charles Oliveira and if you want to get spicy with it, I think he finishes him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.

submission in round 1 or 2, guillotine
"I'm going to take Charles Olivea by guillotine submission."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 110 59% 142 of 224 6 of 11 54% 0 0 8:45
Ľudovít Klein 0 24 of 74 32% 85 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 19 52% 27 of 43 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:06
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 14 14% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 26 65% 46 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 11 18% 48 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 38 of 65 58% 69 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:34
Ľudovít Klein 0 20 of 49 40% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 110 59% 53 of 98 7 of 7 5 of 5 38 of 73 3 of 4 24 of 33
Ľudovít Klein 24 of 74 32% 10 of 49 13 of 23 1 of 2 23 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 19 52% 3 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 13 2 of 2 4 of 4
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 14 14% 2 of 11 0 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 26 65% 15 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 18
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 11 18% 1 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Gamrot 38 of 65 58% 35 of 62 2 of 2 1 of 1 30 of 53 1 of 1 7 of 11
Ľudovít Klein 20 of 49 40% 7 of 31 12 of 17 1 of 1 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his smooth striking, accuracy, and 90% takedown defense. He notes that Gamrot is chinny and gets dropped often, and that Klein will do damage on the feet while Gamrot holds on. He prefers a prop bet of 'inside the distance/decision no action' because Klein has finishing upside and Gamrot could win a takedown-heavy decision.

Prefers 'inside the distance/decision no action' bet on Klein; mentions plus 3.5 round spread.
"Ludovit's going to be the pick. But because I'm a scaredy-cat instead of outright betting on Ludovit, I'll probably do a win inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, noting this is a massive step down in competition for Gamrot compared to his recent fights. He expects Gamrot to wrestle for 15 minutes, using the small cage to his advantage. He worries about judges in a damage-over-control era but still believes Gamrot wins a decision.

by decision
"I got to go Gamerot. I'm going to take Gameamro by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor agrees with Zane that Gamrot is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Klein's tendency to be a back-foot, pot-shot striker will not work against Gamrot's pressure and wrestling. Connor also notes that Klein's wrestling, when he uses it, will only lead him into Gamrot's world, where Gamrot is superior. He compares the matchup to Klein's fight with Michael Trizano, where Klein was out-jabbed, and expects a similar outcome with Gamrot's wrestling being the difference.

"I think it'll look probably a little bit like that, uh, trisano fight with single legs. Mm-hmm. And that sounds like a gamrott wind to me. It really does odds on the fight camera is the favorite of a minus …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Matt picks Ľudovít Klein as an underdog. He believes Klein's 91% takedown defense and power striking will neutralize Gamrot's wrestling. Klein lands damaging shots and should win the first two rounds, potentially pulling off the upset. Matt likes Klein by decision at +330.

Klein by decision +330, Gamrot by decision -105
"I'm going to go Klein. Uh, Klein by decision currently sits at plus 330."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, though he acknowledges Klein's danger. He believes Gamrot's size and grappling will be key, especially after getting hurt. He notes Klein's cardio issues and that Gamrot is world-class. He predicts Gamrot wins the later rounds, possibly by finish or decision.

Third round finish or decision
"I'm gonna go with Mattesh Gamro over Ludovic Klein... I think he'll win this one against Ludvic Klein."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot because he believes Klein's style is a poor matchup for him. Klein tends to fight on the back foot, picking shots one at a time, and relies on either a wrestling advantage or a tempo advantage to win. Against Gamrot, who is a high-pressure wrestler with excellent grappling, Klein's wrestling will likely lead him into trouble. Zane also notes that Klein's recent opponents have been low-output, and Gamrot's pace and ability to wrestle will overwhelm him, similar to how Michael Trizano out-jabbed Klein.

"So it looks like a Gamrot win. It does. Gamrot. He, what the big thing that Dan Hooker showed him is that Gamrot came out and he looked more deft with his lead hand with it or his left hand. …"
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 64 of 129 49% 88 of 154 5 of 15 33% 0 0 4:59
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 143 45% 82 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 54 48% 31 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Mateusz Gamrot 0 20 of 43 46% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dan Hooker 0 11 of 17 64% 27 of 34 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Dan Hooker 0 27 of 58 46% 30 of 61 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:51
Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 66 42% 31 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 64 of 129 49% 56 of 119 6 of 8 2 of 2 43 of 97 2 of 2 19 of 30
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 143 45% 41 of 111 24 of 32 0 of 0 44 of 119 4 of 6 17 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 26 of 54 48% 22 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 28 2 of 2 15 of 24
Mateusz Gamrot 20 of 43 46% 9 of 28 11 of 15 0 of 0 15 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Dan Hooker 11 of 17 64% 8 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 34 50% 12 of 26 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 23 1 of 1 9 of 10
3 Dan Hooker 27 of 58 46% 26 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 66 42% 20 of 57 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 58 2 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.

Will bet Dan Hooker +3.5 when prop drops
"I'm going to pick gamr ultimately I don't love it but I'm going to pick gamr because I do think the wrestling is just too [__] much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.

decision
"I got to go game Rod here gamr by decision makes most sense to me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.

"I got a hooker knocking out matus gameron"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.

"give me the gamer give me gamrot give me a russle heavy uh fight here over hooker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.

"I'm picking gamrot to win you know like I think he's going to win a a a decision where in one round he's dropped he gets kicked with a body kick he gets dropped like but then he gets that …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.

"I'm gonna go gamr too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.

Gamrot by decision (if +100 or better)
"the official prediction will be gamr and gamra by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.

"I like a gamr by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.

"I'm going with matus gamr over Dan hooker... I think his grappling is going to be too good"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
TKO (knee injury) R2 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 42 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 16 of 27 59% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 32 56% 4 of 14 12 of 16 2 of 2 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 16 of 40 40% 11 of 31 2 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 35 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 27 59% 4 of 11 10 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 12 of 34 35% 7 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.

Gamrot at current moneyline is great value
"the reality is physiov probably gonna win this fight he is gonna be my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.

"I'm gonna take physio to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.

Prefers live betting on Gamrot at plus money; mentions Gamrot's takedown ability and Fiziev's fatigue in later rounds.
"I'm leaning right now towards gamrod... I would much rather just hit this live a bigger plus money price tag on the two's gamron."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.

plus 130 underdog value; hopes line moves to plus 135
"I'm going to have to go with the plus 130 hopefully maybe even a plus 135 or a plus 40 later on in the week on gamr"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.

3 units at -136
"I like Fiziev in this spot... I think he's going to defend the takedowns and knock out Gamrot on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.

over 4.5 rounds
"give me the underdog shot on the Polish fighter here and Montage camera to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly to physive but um I mean I'm gonna wait for weigh-ins and and all of that it's not a fight that I feel like I need to get money on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going for Raphael physiov I just can't unsee it... I think physio is actually going to get a first or second round TKO and make a statement against gamrot"
WIN vs Jalin Turner
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 29 of 42 69% 89 of 109 4 of 12 33% 0 0 6:52
Jalin Turner 1 40 of 97 41% 62 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:26
Jalin Turner 1 12 of 31 38% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 13 of 17 76% 60 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:35
Jalin Turner 0 18 of 48 37% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 7 of 11 63% 15 of 21 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:51
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 29 of 42 69% 18 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 8
Jalin Turner 40 of 97 41% 23 of 72 14 of 22 3 of 3 33 of 90 4 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 14 64% 4 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1
Jalin Turner 12 of 31 38% 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 13 of 17 76% 7 of 11 2 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jalin Turner 18 of 48 37% 11 of 37 4 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 46 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 5
Jalin Turner 10 of 18 55% 4 of 11 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.

"I still think gamron's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.

"I'm gonna take matteus gamer out to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight I'll say bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.

Would be the PRP pick if he goes with Turner
"I'm super tempted to pull the underdog trigger man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.

Mentions Gamrot opened -240, now -217; Turner +205 to +176.
"I do think Gamrot is actually going to finally get some top time in this fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.

Jalin Turner by knockout (hedge)
"gameron is just so so relentless he gets better as the fights go on as well he is just going to drown this kid Jalen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.

"I think the expertise the the experience and the scrambling ability of gamra will keep him safe again against a dangerous finishing prowess of Jalen Turner and I think that we'll see gamrod start to take over the longer that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna pick gamrat but uh another fight that I'm you know very cautious about"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.

"I've got to go with Matthias gamrot here over Jalen Turner... I think gamrock's gonna get this one done using his grappling to a 30-27 unanimous decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.

"This is a better fight for Gamrot than it is for Turner."
LOSS vs Beneil Dariush
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29-28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 1 59 of 130 45% 67 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Mateusz Gamrot 0 33 of 81 40% 38 of 86 4 of 19 21% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 13 69% 13 of 17 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:22
2 Beneil Dariush 0 31 of 67 46% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mateusz Gamrot 0 15 of 47 31% 15 of 47 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:10
3 Beneil Dariush 1 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 59 of 130 45% 35 of 100 15 of 21 9 of 9 52 of 121 2 of 3 5 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 33 of 81 40% 22 of 67 9 of 12 2 of 2 29 of 76 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 9 of 26 34% 2 of 16 4 of 7 3 of 3 7 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 13 69% 8 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Beneil Dariush 31 of 67 46% 19 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 4 27 of 62 0 of 0 4 of 5
Mateusz Gamrot 15 of 47 31% 9 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Beneil Dariush 19 of 37 51% 14 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 21 42% 5 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)

Round 1
Like every other main card tilt, this lightweight affair pitting Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC) against Gamrot (21-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has nearly immediate championship implications, as the victor could very likely be next in line for the winner of the headliner a few fights from now. Before they can look ahead, they have to get past the other, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Movahedi. The two bump fists, and after a few seconds to find their feet in the cage, Dariush slings a pair of quick kicks. Dariush rushes forward with a high kick, and Gamrot attacks for a takedown. A furious scramble ensues, and Gamrot lowers Dariush down but finds himself in leglock danger. Dariush attempts to sweep with this, but the two end up back on their feet. Gamrot pushes him to the wall, but he releases his foe and they reset. The right ear of Gamrot is split, and it starts to bleed, but he pays it no mind. Dariush attacks with a few low kicks, and Gamrot catches a body kick that follows and dumps Dariush to the mat. Dariush pursues a leglock as soon as they hit the ground, and he considers a heel hook but is on the wrong side without the right leverage to lock it down. “Gamer” pulls his leg out and stands up, and Dariush follows him. Gamrot stays tightly pressed to his opponent, before releasing him and backing off. An odd takedown entry allows Gamrot to get his hands on Dariush and drag the fight down, but Dariush defends with an awkward position to stop it. Dariush implores the referee to break them up, so Gamrot answers this by taking Dariush’s legs out beneath him. The Polish fighter cannot keep Dariush down, so he backs off and lets Dariush kick him in the side. On the kick, Gamrot grabs it, and he gives a shove but cannot ground Dariush this time. They trade kicks, and Gamrot slips on the way out before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot

Round 2
Sherdog encountered some technical difficulties at the beginning of this round, and we apologize for the inconvenience. We resume the action at the beginning of Round 2. The lightweights touch ‘em up, and Gamrot leans forward into a punch and has a strange reaction to it, but it could have been from a possible takedown setup. Gamrot resets and crashes forward for an authentic try, and Dariush tosses him aside and lets Gamrot get his footing again. Dariush kicks the body and gets punched in the head for his effort, and Gamrot counters another kick with an overhand right. Dariush pushes a jab out, and he sets up a high kick that glances off the shoulder. The lightweights clash legs at the same time, and Dariush walks forward to engage only to get sniped with a jab. Gamrot dives down to the ankle to take the fight down, and Dariush pulls his leg away and backs away. Dariush intercepts his opponent with a stern knee, and he targets the body with his shin as his legs continue to be his best weapon. A Gamrot takedown is stuffed, and Dariush makes him pay by chopping at his lead leg. The single strikes come back and forth, and Gamrot darts forward to throw a few in a bundle, but Dariush slips and rips with a left hand. The former KSW champ slowly moves forward without pulling the trigger, and he is forced to block a high kick that rolls off his shoulder. Dariush scoops up an uppercut and gets backed off with an overhand right, and Gamrot blitzes him with a knee. Gamrot sprints at his foe for one final takedown, and the scramble that ensues ends the round with both men on their seats.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 3
The top lightweights meet in the middle and offer half-hearted gloved touch that is more of a jab, and Gamrot claims the center of the cage. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown entry, but the veteran savvy of Dariush smoothly flows with the attempt and forces Gamrot to release his grip and stand back up. Dariush lets him have it with a flush kick to the body, and he lets go with a subsequent pair of kicks to the upper thigh. As Gamrot replies with a head kick try, Dariush pops him with a right hook. Gamrot comes up short with another high kick, and Dariush sees his strikes coming and is seemingly one step ahead of the offense. Dariush lifts up a knee that bounces off the midsection when Gamrot strides forward, and Gamrot continues to give chase no matter what he absorbs. The crowd appears distracted with the drama outside the cage, and they rain down a shower of boos not targeting the fighters but at that individual or individuals. As they are paying attention to something out of the cage, Gamrot leaps forward to snatch up Dariush’s lead leg and look for a takedown, but the attempt fails and Dariush gains his balance and hops away. Gamrot loops a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done when Dariush backpedals. Dariush prepares a left-hand counter for when Gamrot walks into his range, and he times a spectacular blow that knocks Gamrot clean off his feet. The recoverability of Gamrot is solid, as he somersaults back and gets right back into action following the flash knockdown. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Dariush smoothly follows him all the way through to get to his knees and back up without spending much time on his back. The fight comes to an end with one final exchange of alternating punches, and the lightweights hug it out after the bell sounds. It remains to be seen if the victor here has done enough to earn a crack at the triumphant man of the main event, a shot which also hinges on the result of that match itself.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)

The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot confidently, stating he is better everywhere than Dariush. He highlights Gamrot's wrestling, power, cardio, and pace, and notes that Dariush has been waiting for a title shot while Gamrot has been active. He has 2 units on Gamrot at -185 and expects the line to move.

"gamrod's a clear pick his minus 185 odds right now are solid those are definitely going to move I got two units on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Gamrot to win by knockout in the second round. He questions Dariush's chin (three knockout losses) and believes Gamrot's volume and deceptive power will catch him. He expects the fight to play out mostly on the feet, with Gamrot dictating the range. He notes Dariush's striking is underrated but trusts Gamrot to land a finishing shot.

second round knockout
"I think gamra knocks him out and uh moves up these rankings so I like gamrod here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody thinks Gamrot is the pick, noting his wrestling pedigree and takedown defense. He believes Gamrot's pressure and pace will be key, and that Dariush may struggle with cardio. Cody acknowledges Dariush is a live underdog but feels Gamrot is getting more comfortable and should put on a clean performance. He is not super high on Gamrot this week because Dariush could spoil.

"the pick is gamma and I'm gonna ride with him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot, citing his incredible pace and cardio, which he believes will wear down Dariush over three rounds. He notes that Dariush often gasses after going berserk, and Gamrot's ability to keep up high-intensity scrambles will exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Dariush could win early if he lands a big shot or imposes his grappling.

"I'm gonna take Gamrot because he's got an incredible pace... he has a way of sort of sucking some of the life out of the fight on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mateusz Gamrot. He praises Gamrot's unorthodox low single leg takedown and relentless pressure, noting he attempted 21 takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan. Levi is concerned about Dariush's recent broken ankle and whether he will be fully recovered. He thinks Dariush has the better striking, especially body kicks, but worries that Gamrot's wrestling and scrambling could overwhelm Dariush over three rounds. Levi does not bet this fight.

"I'm gonna slightly lean towards gamroth though but I mean I can't blame someone for taking a plus 165 on their use."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot has shown he can grapple with high-level fighters like Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush's reckless style may leave him open to counters. Gamrot is the cleaner striker and has cardio advantage. The under 2.5 at +160 or Gamrot inside the distance at +250 are intriguing. A one-unit shot on the under is the play.

Under 2.5 rounds at +160; Gamrot inside the distance at +250; Gamrot by KO at +500
"the under two and a half at plus 160 which is the last line I saw that has my Intrigue but even uh gamrod inside the distance at plus 250 I think is a great line as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul is torn but leans Gamrot, citing that wrestling may be negated in the big cage and that Gamrot has speed and grappling advantages. He mentions Dariush's chin issues from the past and that Gamrot's power could be a factor. Paul is not sure about betting but picks Gamrot.

"gamrat's the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. He questions the quality of Dariush's wins (e.g., Ferguson) and notes Dariush's long layoff due to a broken leg. He believes Gamrot's youth, momentum, and grappling will overwhelm Dariush, predicting a decision win with some dangerous moments.

"I'm going with Matteo Shamrock now"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane picks Dariush, arguing that Dariush's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight early will give him an edge. He notes that Dariush is a hell of a grappler and can match Gamrot's wrestling, and that Gamrot's takedowns don't lead to control. He admits it's a close fight and that Dariush's tendency to get hurt is a concern, but he thinks Dariush can win a decision or finish.

"I'll take the flyer on Dariush. I think Dariush is gonna probably have a really good round one."
Jalin Turner - Fight History
WIN vs Edson Barboza
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.

"I'm gonna pick Jaylen Turner here because at this point in their careers, I think he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.

Turner by first round knockout
"I'm going to take Jaylen Turner to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.

"The reason I end up locking in Turner is more so you're you're right. His last fight against Jakar, he goes through the motions."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.

Turner by KO
"I think I have to take Turner honestly, which I can't pick Jaylen Turner after that last performance and not, especially not with all the additional context."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.

"I'm not really sure. Next week, I'll have a pick for y'all on this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.

Jalin Turner inside the distance
"Jaylen Turner inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think he's going to be more than dialed in to go out there and take advantage of the deteriorating durability of Edson Barbosa. Look for Turner to get this fight done within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.

"I don't think Jaylen Turner makes it to the third round, but he's big, he's strong, he's got more than enough power."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Jaylen Turner getting this one done by TKO finish brutally in the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.

"I have to pick him because of that, but man, if this is a Anthony Smith situation, yeah, like it's miss fight against, uh, Dom Reyes, then like he won of Anthony Smith's like last four fights."
Submission R1 2:29 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 16 62% 17 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 16 62% 17 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 7
Jalin Turner 10 of 16 62% 7 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 7
Jalin Turner 10 of 16 62% 7 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 5
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Turner because he sees a clear level gap: Bahamondes has never beaten a good UFC fighter and is a classic tall man who doesn't like fighting at distance, while Turner is a long-range striker with fast, straight shots. Connor notes that Bahamondes has poor defense and will struggle against Turner's reach and power. He also points out that Turner has fought much better competition and performed well in close fights.

Odds: Turner opened at -115, now +112; Bahamondes opened at +100, now -129. Connor is surprised by the line movement favoring Bahamondes.
"I do not think Bahamanda's has done anything to prove that he he would serve he would lose to all the guys who beat in Turner. Yeah. You know, absolutely. He'd lose more convincingly to most of them."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Lucrative James picks Turner as an underdog, citing Turner's early power and finishing ability. He thinks Turner will land big shots early and potentially finish, as Bahamondes is hittable. He notes Turner's cardio issues but believes he can win by stoppage or even decision if he hurts Bahamondes early. He admits he needs more tape study but leans Turner.

"I'm going to predict Jaylen Turner the reason is because of what I said I think he's definitely going to win round one I think he's going to hurt ignasio early"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Turner, agreeing with Connor that Bahamondes is not a good range fighter and has poor defense. He notes that Turner is a nuclear puncher who is much faster and has a flexible striking game. Zane acknowledges Turner's occasional mental lapses but believes Bahamondes lacks the talent to exploit them. He is surprised by the betting line favoring Bahamondes.

Odds: Turner opened at -115, now +112; Bahamondes opened at +100, now -129. Zane is surprised by the line movement.
"I think much faster than Bahamanda's. Yeah. So I get the matchup as a as a sort of a visual gag. But I do not think Bahamanda's has done anything to prove that he he would serve he would lose …"
LOSS vs Renato Moicano
TKO (elbows and punches) R2 4:11 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Renato Moicano 1 16 of 40 40% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jalin Turner 0 36 of 67 53% 87 of 128 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Renato Moicano 1 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jalin Turner 0 8 of 16 50% 32 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:52
2 Renato Moicano 0 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jalin Turner 0 28 of 51 54% 55 of 83 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Renato Moicano 16 of 40 40% 10 of 32 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 36 of 67 53% 32 of 60 3 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 23 1 of 1 24 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Renato Moicano 9 of 25 36% 4 of 18 2 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Renato Moicano 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 28 of 51 54% 26 of 47 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 12 1 of 1 20 of 38
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo is confident in Jalin Turner, citing his phenomenal striking, length, and takedown defense. He notes Moicano's BJJ is dangerous but Turner should piece him up and potentially finish. He mentions Turner has never won a decision, so a finish is likely.

"Jaylen Turner is going to be the pick I am pretty confident in him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is high on Turner's potential. He notes Turner's length (6'3", 77-inch reach), solid takedown defense (75%), and nasty power. Moicano lacks volume and offensive wrestling; his wins often come by quick submission or low-volume decisions. Cody points out that Moicano was a 145er and Turner is a big lightweight who could even be a middleweight. He believes Turner's power and reach will be too much, and he expects a finish, possibly a first-round knockout. Cody mentions Turner's cardio issues in past fights but thinks Moicano doesn't have the pressure to exploit them.

"Sign me up for Turner to get the Finish."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Turner, emphasizing that Moicano's counter-punching and wrestling will not be enough. He notes that Turner is difficult to take down and works well from his back, while Moicano's confidence often breaks when pressured. Connor believes Turner's reach and power will be too much for Moicano to handle over three rounds.

Odds: Turner opened -244, now -230; Moicano opened +185, now +201. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I just think, yeah, I think so. Moikana is not going to have the ability to, he might win a round just on back control or something like that. Yeah, but it's hard to see him really shifting the whole …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Daniel Vreeland picks Jalin Turner, citing his improved striking, range management, and takedown defense. He believes Turner's power and length will be too much for Moicano, and that Turner will knock him out. Vreeland notes Moicano's submission threat but doubts his chin can hold up.

wins by KO/TKO
"I think Turner is gonna find a way to land that straight on the button so I'm going Jalin Turner here probably by knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Renato Moicano

Turner has a striking advantage and power, but Moicano will grab a body lock and drag the fight to the ground. Moicano's BJJ will reign supreme, opening a back take opportunity for a rear-naked choke submission. Moicano pulls off the upset as a +195 underdog.

submission, underdog +195
"I think that will see moano grab that body lock and eventually drag this fight to the ground whereas BJJ should be able to remain reign supreme and I think that will open up a back take opportunity where he …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul agrees, noting Moicano's last performance against Drew Dober was a problem—he got a takedown in round three but did little with it. Paul points out that Moicano's wrestling should have dominated Dober but didn't. He also mentions Turner is a big lightweight, while Moicano moved up from 145. Paul thinks Turner's power will be decisive and expects a finish, possibly a first-round knockout. He notes that Moicano's cardio wasn't great in the Dober fight either.

"I'm with you 100%... Turner is a guy that we like."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano to submit Jalin Turner via rear-naked choke in round one. He notes that Moicano has submission ability and that Turner has been taken down and controlled by grapplers like Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Moicano will find Turner's hips, take his back, and sink in the choke.

rear-naked choke round one
"re could choke round one put your money down this re naked choke round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Turner confidently, despite disliking his style. He notes that Turner's reach and power make him dangerous early, and Moicano is hittable and prone to losing confidence. Zane argues that Moicano's clinch wrestling will not work against Turner's size and defensive grappling. He expects Turner to knock Moicano out early or win a decision.

Odds: Turner opened -244, now -230; Moicano opened +185, now +201. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I honestly think Moikana might get knocked out pretty early in this fight. Two hittable turners, too, too powerful, too aggressive early."
WIN vs King Green
KO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner despite short notice, citing his size advantage and danger everywhere. He thinks Turner's reach and height will be a problem for Green, and that Green's hands-down style could get him caught. He expects an early finish but notes cardio concerns if the fight extends. He calls it a step down in competition for Turner.

"give me Jaylen Turner here on short notice to get an early finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is torn but tentatively picks Turner. He acknowledges Turner's weight cut issues and short notice, but thinks Turner is faster, longer, and the better striker. He worries about Turner's cardio in later rounds but believes if Turner minds his distance, he can win. He considers waiting for weigh-ins and possibly betting Green live after the first round.

considering Bobby Green live after first round
"tentatively I'm going to take Jaylen Turner but I am not disagreeing with any of your points I see them all"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Lucrative James leans towards Bobby Green as a dog, noting that Jalin Turner has never won a decision and has a questionable chin. He believes if Green survives round one, the fight becomes 50-50, with Green having an edge in later rounds. He is not confident but sees value in Green at plus money.

"I don't mind a dog shot on Bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Green is on a two-fight winning streak and has a volume-heavy style that could overwhelm Turner. Turner has lost two in a row and has had weight issues, plus he took this fight on short notice. Green's durability and pressure should allow him to outwork Turner, especially if the fight goes into deep waters. A decision win is predicted.

decision win predicted
"give me Bobby green here and I think he ends up pulling off a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul already bet Bobby Green at plus money. He cites Green's durability, cardio, and the fact that Turner missed weight last time and is on short notice. He thinks Green can go hard three rounds and that Turner's cardio falls off. He also likes Green round three prop at +2000. He notes Green is historically a slow starter but believes he can take over late.

Bobby Green round three at +2000 considered; already bet Green moneyline at +188
"I already bet Bobby green why well Bobby green was already getting ready for this card he's supposed to take on Dan hooker Dan hooker pulls out Jaylen Turner I mean missed weight last time out at 155 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner, citing his reach advantage, versatility, and ability to chop the legs and body. He believes Bobby Green struggles without a reach advantage and that Turner's dynamic striking will be too much. He expects a decision win for Turner, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm gonna go Jalin Turner... he's more versatile... he'll chop low, he'll front kick the body, he'll kick the head... I'll say it will be a decision win 30-27."
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 100 of 177 56% 113 of 191 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Jalin Turner 1 125 of 197 63% 172 of 247 0 of 2 0% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 34 of 69 49% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jalin Turner 0 38 of 54 70% 39 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Hooker 0 34 of 60 56% 34 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jalin Turner 0 44 of 81 54% 48 of 85 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
3 Dan Hooker 0 32 of 48 66% 45 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Jalin Turner 1 43 of 62 69% 85 of 107 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 100 of 177 56% 63 of 128 30 of 37 7 of 12 78 of 152 18 of 21 4 of 4
Jalin Turner 125 of 197 63% 77 of 139 25 of 32 23 of 26 100 of 157 19 of 31 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 34 of 69 49% 16 of 47 13 of 14 5 of 8 30 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 38 of 54 70% 16 of 29 8 of 9 14 of 16 35 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dan Hooker 34 of 60 56% 23 of 44 9 of 12 2 of 4 25 of 51 9 of 9 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 44 of 81 54% 27 of 59 9 of 13 8 of 9 38 of 70 6 of 11 0 of 0
3 Dan Hooker 32 of 48 66% 24 of 37 8 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 37 5 of 7 4 of 4
Jalin Turner 43 of 62 69% 34 of 51 8 of 10 1 of 1 27 of 36 10 of 17 6 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo is confident in Turner, calling him a 'pretty easy pick'. He notes Turner's excellent boxing, range management, and well-roundedness (3 of last 4 wins by submission). Hooker is durable but Angelo thinks he'll be a step behind. He is only slightly concerned about Hooker turning it into a wrestling match, but believes Turner can handle it. He recommends Turner for parlays.

Could be parlayed
"Jalen's a pretty easy pick for me and he could be parlayed I like Jalen Turner I'm pretty confident in him in this fight for sure"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Turner is very dangerous with scary power, and Hooker has been knocked out recently by Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen. He believes Hooker will try to wrestle but doesn't have the takedown game to exploit Turner's takedown defense. He expects a striking match where Turner finishes Hooker early. He mentions that Turner is five years younger and more in his prime.

first round knockout
"I'm taking Jaylen Turner to win this fight I'll say first round knockout win for Jalen Turner"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody picks Turner but is hesitant at -260. He thinks Turner's length and power will be too much for Hooker, who has taken a lot of damage. He notes Hooker's durability may be fading. He considers the under 1.5 rounds but doesn't feel great about it. He mentions Turner's cardio issues in the past but expects an early knockout.

Under 1.5 rounds (+100), Turner by KO/TKO
"I think Jalen Turner Sparks him but minus 260 I'll admit you got way more experience down for Dan hooker"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Turner, emphasizing that Hooker's game relies on being the taller fighter with reach, which he won't have here. He notes that Turner's pressure and collar-tie game will be effective, and that Hooker's slow starts and reactive style play into Turner's hands. Connor sees Turner as younger, faster, and more powerful, making this a bad matchup for Hooker.

"I just don't really know how Dan Hooker's game operates as the shorter man. I just think it's gonna be not good."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Daniel Levi picks Turner, noting that he has improved his range management and defense, and that Hooker has taken too much damage throughout his career. Levi points out that Hooker will be the shorter man for the first time, facing a three-inch reach disadvantage. He acknowledges that the minus-260 price is high but believes Turner is catching Hooker at the right time. Levi also mentions that Turner has been training outside his comfort zone, including in Abu Dhabi with Khamzat Chimaev, which shows his dedication to improvement.

"I'll probably take Jill attorney also I would definitely like to wait and let the odds drop a little more though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Jalin Turner

James picks Jalin Turner to win by knockout. He notes Turner is on an upward trajectory while Hooker is on a downward one. He praises Turner's improved speed, accuracy, and range management. He acknowledges Turner's chin is questionable and Hooker could land, but thinks Hooker will have to endure too much punishment. He also mentions Turner missed weight but doesn't think it was intentional.

Jalin Turner wins by KO
"my prediction is Jalen by knockout in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Turner has dangerous striking and a strong submission game, while Hooker is hittable and has durability concerns. Hooker may have a technical striking advantage and output, but Turner's power and ability to club and sub will eventually catch Hooker. Fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go Jalen Turner Jalen Turner probably by club and sub but I think fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite spot in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul picks Turner but struggles with the price. He notes Hooker's durability has declined after many wars. He thinks Turner likely finishes him early but doesn't see value at -260. He would consider the under 1.5 rounds but isn't confident. He mentions Hooker's size and experience as potential factors.

Under 1.5 rounds (+100)
"I'm gonna pick Jalen Turner but I don't really think there's much meat on the bone to uh to be batting him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner to win by second-round TKO. He criticizes Hooker's lack of head movement and declining chin, noting that Turner has a similar reach and will land clean shots. He believes Turner's patience and power will overwhelm Hooker, who has shown slower reaction times recently.

wins by TKO in the second round
"I reckon he is going to win this one by TKO in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Turner, citing his size, speed, and pressure. He notes that Hooker struggles when faced with bigger, more determined fighters who march him down, as seen against Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler. Zane believes Turner's pressure and power will make Hooker uncomfortable, and that Hooker's game as the shorter man is untested and likely to fail.

"I started watching tape and I'm like, you know what, Jalen Turner is just gonna walk away with this, I think."
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 29 of 42 69% 89 of 109 4 of 12 33% 0 0 6:52
Jalin Turner 1 40 of 97 41% 62 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:26
Jalin Turner 1 12 of 31 38% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 13 of 17 76% 60 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:35
Jalin Turner 0 18 of 48 37% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 7 of 11 63% 15 of 21 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:51
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 29 of 42 69% 18 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 8
Jalin Turner 40 of 97 41% 23 of 72 14 of 22 3 of 3 33 of 90 4 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 14 64% 4 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1
Jalin Turner 12 of 31 38% 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 13 of 17 76% 7 of 11 2 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jalin Turner 18 of 48 37% 11 of 37 4 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 46 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 5
Jalin Turner 10 of 18 55% 4 of 11 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.

"I still think gamron's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.

"I'm gonna take matteus gamer out to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight I'll say bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.

Would be the PRP pick if he goes with Turner
"I'm super tempted to pull the underdog trigger man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.

Mentions Gamrot opened -240, now -217; Turner +205 to +176.
"I do think Gamrot is actually going to finally get some top time in this fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.

Jalin Turner by knockout (hedge)
"gameron is just so so relentless he gets better as the fights go on as well he is just going to drown this kid Jalen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.

"I think the expertise the the experience and the scrambling ability of gamra will keep him safe again against a dangerous finishing prowess of Jalen Turner and I think that we'll see gamrod start to take over the longer that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna pick gamrat but uh another fight that I'm you know very cautious about"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.

"I've got to go with Matthias gamrot here over Jalen Turner... I think gamrock's gonna get this one done using his grappling to a 30-27 unanimous decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.

"This is a better fight for Gamrot than it is for Turner."
WIN vs Brad Riddell
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:45 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jalin Turner 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Riddell 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jalin Turner 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Riddell 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jalin Turner 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jalin Turner 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo picks Jalin Turner, citing his length, raw power, and superior grappling. He notes that Turner mixes in kicks well and has higher volume and takedown accuracy than Riddell. He believes Riddell may be more technically sound but Turner's physical advantages will prevail.

Moneyline bet at -119
"I got a moneyline bet on jalen turner at minus 119"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady is confident in Jalin Turner, citing his massive size advantage (8-inch height, 4-inch reach) and 100% finish rate. He believes Turner's length and power will be too much for Brad Riddell, despite Turner's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round finish.

Turner by first round finish
"i think jalen turner wins this fight and does it inside the distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Cody thinks Riddell is a slow starter but has great cardio and technical kickboxing. He expects Turner to win the first round but tire, allowing Riddell to take over. He recommends betting Riddell live after the first round for a better price.

Riddell by decision
"I'm gonna go with Rodell Riddell by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Daniel Levi leans toward Jalin Turner, citing his impressive improvements and physical attributes (6'3" with 77" reach). He notes Turner's variety of strikes and submission threat, and believes he is ready to usher out the old guard. However, he acknowledges that Brad Riddell is a world champion kickboxer and that the fight is a tough call. He considers the value on Riddell at +125 but ultimately leans Turner without placing a bet.

Value on Riddell at +125; no bet placed.
"my heart is telling me jalen because of the improvements... i don't know, lean turner"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Turner has length, speed, and creativity. He uses his lead right hook effectively from southpaw. Riddell needs to close distance to land, but Turner can counter him. Turner's cardio is a concern if the fight goes long, but he likely finishes early. The submission prop at +700 is good value.

Turner by submission at +700
"i think that turner clips riddell early club and subs him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Paul is waiting for a better price on Riddell, possibly +150 or more. He likes Riddell's durability and pressure, and thinks he can win if he survives the first round. He plans to bet live.

"I'll probably end up with some money on Brad Riddell"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner to win by TKO, citing his massive height and reach advantage at lightweight (6'3" with 75.5" reach). He notes Turner's power and unorthodox striking, and that Brad Riddell has been hurt in fights before. He expects Turner to hurt Riddell in the late second round and finish him with a flurry of strikes.

TKO in round 2
"i'm going to go if jalen turner getting this one done"
TKO (punches) R2 0:46 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jalin Turner 1 52 of 111 46% 53 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Jamie Mullarkey 0 35 of 59 59% 45 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jalin Turner 0 39 of 87 44% 40 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:00
Jamie Mullarkey 0 33 of 53 62% 43 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
2 Jalin Turner 1 13 of 24 54% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jamie Mullarkey 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jalin Turner 52 of 111 46% 34 of 86 17 of 23 1 of 2 44 of 96 4 of 5 4 of 10
Jamie Mullarkey 35 of 59 59% 22 of 41 7 of 12 6 of 6 30 of 53 2 of 2 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jalin Turner 39 of 87 44% 24 of 65 15 of 21 0 of 1 35 of 82 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 33 of 53 62% 20 of 37 7 of 10 6 of 6 28 of 47 2 of 2 3 of 4
2 Jalin Turner 13 of 24 54% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 10
Jamie Mullarkey 2 of 6 33% 2 of 4 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo picks Jalin Turner, believing his volume and accuracy will overcome Mullarkey's takedowns. He notes Turner has never won a decision but thinks he can get his first here. He mentions Mullarkey's recent striking success but thinks Turner is the better striker. He also plans to bet over 1.5 rounds if the line drops.

over 1.5 rounds if line drops
"i'm actually gonna go with jalen here because i think his volume and accuracy will make up for any takedowns that malarkey gets"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner to win by knockout in the first or second round. He highlights Turner's size and reach advantage for lightweight, as well as his power and well-rounded skills. Brady notes that Mullarkey has poor striking defense and may struggle with Turner's length. He also thinks Turner is the better grappler and could submit Mullarkey if the fight goes to the mat. Brady acknowledges Mullarkey's toughness but believes Turner's skill set is superior.

Turner by knockout in round 1 or 2
"i like jalen turner to win this fight i'm gonna take him to win by i'll say knockout in the first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody sees Turner's upside as higher, with crazy power, length, and technical striking. He notes Turner's grappling improvement but questions his cardio beyond 8 minutes. Cody bet the under in this fight, expecting an early finish, and leans Turner but is not fully confident.

Bet under 1.5 rounds at plus money (exact odds not specified)
"i did throw some money on the under in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Daniel Levi picks Jalin Turner to knock out Jamie Mullarkey. He highlights Turner's long reach and range tools, and believes Turner's composure and distance management have improved. He notes that Mullarkey is tough but gets hit too much, and Turner's size and weapons (knees, kicks, hands) will be too much. He thinks Turner will finish Mullarkey, possibly by knockout.

"i actually think he comes out here and knocks out uh the very tough jamie malarkey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Turner has improved his grappling and killer instinct, as seen in his recent wins. Mullarkey is durable and has a good clinch game, but Turner's length and kickboxing from the outside should be key. Turner can nullify Mullarkey's takedowns and get back to striking. Mullarkey's only path is a big punch or relentless grappling, but Turner's growth makes him the pick.

"i'm gonna go jalen turner uh and i'm gonna take him to win this fight via decision uh stuff and takedowns uh nullifying the clinch and just getting his game off from the outside with his kickboxing"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul argues Mullarkey is a live underdog with great cardio, toughness, and pressure. He notes Turner's wins are over low-level opponents and he struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Matt Frevola). Paul believes Mullarkey will weather Turner's early speed and take over in rounds 2 and 3 with grinding wrestling and pace, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.

"i'm going to go with jamie i think it's another live underdog spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey as an underdog over Jalin Turner, citing Mullarkey's improvement since training with Alexander Volkanovski. He believes pressure fighters do well against Turner, referencing the close Matt Frevola fight. He predicts Mullarkey will lose the first round but use his toughness and body shots to finish Turner in the third round via TKO against the cage. He notes Turner's long torso makes him vulnerable to body shots.

underdog pick, method: TKO, round: 3
"i'm going to call a third round tko for him against the cage finishing off jalen turner"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.

"I still think gamron's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.

"I'm gonna take matteus gamer out to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight I'll say bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.

Would be the PRP pick if he goes with Turner
"I'm super tempted to pull the underdog trigger man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.

Mentions Gamrot opened -240, now -217; Turner +205 to +176.
"I do think Gamrot is actually going to finally get some top time in this fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.

Jalin Turner by knockout (hedge)
"gameron is just so so relentless he gets better as the fights go on as well he is just going to drown this kid Jalen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.

"I think the expertise the the experience and the scrambling ability of gamra will keep him safe again against a dangerous finishing prowess of Jalen Turner and I think that we'll see gamrod start to take over the longer that this fight goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna pick gamrat but uh another fight that I'm you know very cautious about"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.

"I've got to go with Matthias gamrot here over Jalen Turner... I think gamrock's gonna get this one done using his grappling to a 30-27 unanimous decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.

"This is a better fight for Gamrot than it is for Turner."