Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot
Career Averages - Jalin Turner
Mateusz Gamrot
Jalin Turner
Mateusz Gamrot - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 38 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 24 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 34 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 4 of 21 | 19% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 21 | 66% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.
Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.
Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.
Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.
The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.
James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.
Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.
Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.
Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 18 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:35 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 42 | 42% | 16 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 35 | 40% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.
James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.
Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.
Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 142 of 224 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 8:45 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 24 of 74 | 32% | 85 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 27 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 46 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 48 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 69 of 108 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 65 of 110 | 59% | 53 of 98 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 73 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 33 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 24 of 74 | 32% | 10 of 49 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 19 | 52% | 3 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 2 of 14 | 14% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 17 of 26 | 65% | 15 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 18 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 2 of 11 | 18% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 38 of 65 | 58% | 35 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 20 of 49 | 40% | 7 of 31 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his smooth striking, accuracy, and 90% takedown defense. He notes that Gamrot is chinny and gets dropped often, and that Klein will do damage on the feet while Gamrot holds on. He prefers a prop bet of 'inside the distance/decision no action' because Klein has finishing upside and Gamrot could win a takedown-heavy decision.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, noting this is a massive step down in competition for Gamrot compared to his recent fights. He expects Gamrot to wrestle for 15 minutes, using the small cage to his advantage. He worries about judges in a damage-over-control era but still believes Gamrot wins a decision.
Connor agrees with Zane that Gamrot is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Klein's tendency to be a back-foot, pot-shot striker will not work against Gamrot's pressure and wrestling. Connor also notes that Klein's wrestling, when he uses it, will only lead him into Gamrot's world, where Gamrot is superior. He compares the matchup to Klein's fight with Michael Trizano, where Klein was out-jabbed, and expects a similar outcome with Gamrot's wrestling being the difference.
Matt picks Ľudovít Klein as an underdog. He believes Klein's 91% takedown defense and power striking will neutralize Gamrot's wrestling. Klein lands damaging shots and should win the first two rounds, potentially pulling off the upset. Matt likes Klein by decision at +330.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, though he acknowledges Klein's danger. He believes Gamrot's size and grappling will be key, especially after getting hurt. He notes Klein's cardio issues and that Gamrot is world-class. He predicts Gamrot wins the later rounds, possibly by finish or decision.
Zane picks Gamrot because he believes Klein's style is a poor matchup for him. Klein tends to fight on the back foot, picking shots one at a time, and relies on either a wrestling advantage or a tempo advantage to win. Against Gamrot, who is a high-pressure wrestler with excellent grappling, Klein's wrestling will likely lead him into trouble. Zane also notes that Klein's recent opponents have been low-output, and Gamrot's pace and ability to wrestle will overwhelm him, similar to how Michael Trizano out-jabbed Klein.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 64 of 129 | 49% | 88 of 154 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:59 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 65 of 143 | 45% | 82 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 31 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 27 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 30 of 61 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 66 | 42% | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 64 of 129 | 49% | 56 of 119 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 97 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 30 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 65 of 143 | 45% | 41 of 111 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 119 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 26 of 54 | 48% | 22 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 24 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 20 of 43 | 46% | 9 of 28 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 11 of 17 | 64% | 8 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 17 of 34 | 50% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 27 of 58 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 66 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.
Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.
Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.
Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.
The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.
Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 111 of 163 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 40 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 28 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 43 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 57 of 102 | 55% | 48 of 90 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 78 | 46% | 24 of 61 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 67 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.
Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.
Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.
Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.
Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 32 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 16 of 40 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 16 of 27 | 59% | 4 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.
Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.
Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.
The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.
Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 29 of 42 | 69% | 89 of 109 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 60 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 29 of 42 | 69% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 |
| Jalin Turner | 40 of 97 | 41% | 23 of 72 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 90 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 14 | 64% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jalin Turner | 12 of 31 | 38% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 13 of 17 | 76% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jalin Turner | 18 of 48 | 37% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.
Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.
Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.
Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.
Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.
Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 1 | 59 of 130 | 45% | 67 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 38 of 86 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 13 of 17 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 31 of 67 | 46% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 1 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 59 of 130 | 45% | 35 of 100 | 15 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 52 of 121 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 33 of 81 | 40% | 22 of 67 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 76 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 9 of 26 | 34% | 2 of 16 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 13 | 69% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 31 of 67 | 46% | 19 of 53 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 15 of 47 | 31% | 9 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 19 of 37 | 51% | 14 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 21 | 42% | 5 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)
Round 1
Like every other main card tilt, this lightweight affair pitting Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC) against Gamrot (21-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has nearly immediate championship implications, as the victor could very likely be next in line for the winner of the headliner a few fights from now. Before they can look ahead, they have to get past the other, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Movahedi. The two bump fists, and after a few seconds to find their feet in the cage, Dariush slings a pair of quick kicks. Dariush rushes forward with a high kick, and Gamrot attacks for a takedown. A furious scramble ensues, and Gamrot lowers Dariush down but finds himself in leglock danger. Dariush attempts to sweep with this, but the two end up back on their feet. Gamrot pushes him to the wall, but he releases his foe and they reset. The right ear of Gamrot is split, and it starts to bleed, but he pays it no mind. Dariush attacks with a few low kicks, and Gamrot catches a body kick that follows and dumps Dariush to the mat. Dariush pursues a leglock as soon as they hit the ground, and he considers a heel hook but is on the wrong side without the right leverage to lock it down. “Gamer” pulls his leg out and stands up, and Dariush follows him. Gamrot stays tightly pressed to his opponent, before releasing him and backing off. An odd takedown entry allows Gamrot to get his hands on Dariush and drag the fight down, but Dariush defends with an awkward position to stop it. Dariush implores the referee to break them up, so Gamrot answers this by taking Dariush’s legs out beneath him. The Polish fighter cannot keep Dariush down, so he backs off and lets Dariush kick him in the side. On the kick, Gamrot grabs it, and he gives a shove but cannot ground Dariush this time. They trade kicks, and Gamrot slips on the way out before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Round 2
Sherdog encountered some technical difficulties at the beginning of this round, and we apologize for the inconvenience. We resume the action at the beginning of Round 2. The lightweights touch ‘em up, and Gamrot leans forward into a punch and has a strange reaction to it, but it could have been from a possible takedown setup. Gamrot resets and crashes forward for an authentic try, and Dariush tosses him aside and lets Gamrot get his footing again. Dariush kicks the body and gets punched in the head for his effort, and Gamrot counters another kick with an overhand right. Dariush pushes a jab out, and he sets up a high kick that glances off the shoulder. The lightweights clash legs at the same time, and Dariush walks forward to engage only to get sniped with a jab. Gamrot dives down to the ankle to take the fight down, and Dariush pulls his leg away and backs away. Dariush intercepts his opponent with a stern knee, and he targets the body with his shin as his legs continue to be his best weapon. A Gamrot takedown is stuffed, and Dariush makes him pay by chopping at his lead leg. The single strikes come back and forth, and Gamrot darts forward to throw a few in a bundle, but Dariush slips and rips with a left hand. The former KSW champ slowly moves forward without pulling the trigger, and he is forced to block a high kick that rolls off his shoulder. Dariush scoops up an uppercut and gets backed off with an overhand right, and Gamrot blitzes him with a knee. Gamrot sprints at his foe for one final takedown, and the scramble that ensues ends the round with both men on their seats.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 3
The top lightweights meet in the middle and offer half-hearted gloved touch that is more of a jab, and Gamrot claims the center of the cage. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown entry, but the veteran savvy of Dariush smoothly flows with the attempt and forces Gamrot to release his grip and stand back up. Dariush lets him have it with a flush kick to the body, and he lets go with a subsequent pair of kicks to the upper thigh. As Gamrot replies with a head kick try, Dariush pops him with a right hook. Gamrot comes up short with another high kick, and Dariush sees his strikes coming and is seemingly one step ahead of the offense. Dariush lifts up a knee that bounces off the midsection when Gamrot strides forward, and Gamrot continues to give chase no matter what he absorbs. The crowd appears distracted with the drama outside the cage, and they rain down a shower of boos not targeting the fighters but at that individual or individuals. As they are paying attention to something out of the cage, Gamrot leaps forward to snatch up Dariush’s lead leg and look for a takedown, but the attempt fails and Dariush gains his balance and hops away. Gamrot loops a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done when Dariush backpedals. Dariush prepares a left-hand counter for when Gamrot walks into his range, and he times a spectacular blow that knocks Gamrot clean off his feet. The recoverability of Gamrot is solid, as he somersaults back and gets right back into action following the flash knockdown. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Dariush smoothly follows him all the way through to get to his knees and back up without spending much time on his back. The fight comes to an end with one final exchange of alternating punches, and the lightweights hug it out after the bell sounds. It remains to be seen if the victor here has done enough to earn a crack at the triumphant man of the main event, a shot which also hinges on the result of that match itself.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot confidently, stating he is better everywhere than Dariush. He highlights Gamrot's wrestling, power, cardio, and pace, and notes that Dariush has been waiting for a title shot while Gamrot has been active. He has 2 units on Gamrot at -185 and expects the line to move.
Big Brady picks Gamrot to win by knockout in the second round. He questions Dariush's chin (three knockout losses) and believes Gamrot's volume and deceptive power will catch him. He expects the fight to play out mostly on the feet, with Gamrot dictating the range. He notes Dariush's striking is underrated but trusts Gamrot to land a finishing shot.
Cody thinks Gamrot is the pick, noting his wrestling pedigree and takedown defense. He believes Gamrot's pressure and pace will be key, and that Dariush may struggle with cardio. Cody acknowledges Dariush is a live underdog but feels Gamrot is getting more comfortable and should put on a clean performance. He is not super high on Gamrot this week because Dariush could spoil.
Connor picks Gamrot, citing his incredible pace and cardio, which he believes will wear down Dariush over three rounds. He notes that Dariush often gasses after going berserk, and Gamrot's ability to keep up high-intensity scrambles will exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Dariush could win early if he lands a big shot or imposes his grappling.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mateusz Gamrot. He praises Gamrot's unorthodox low single leg takedown and relentless pressure, noting he attempted 21 takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan. Levi is concerned about Dariush's recent broken ankle and whether he will be fully recovered. He thinks Dariush has the better striking, especially body kicks, but worries that Gamrot's wrestling and scrambling could overwhelm Dariush over three rounds. Levi does not bet this fight.
Gamrot has shown he can grapple with high-level fighters like Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush's reckless style may leave him open to counters. Gamrot is the cleaner striker and has cardio advantage. The under 2.5 at +160 or Gamrot inside the distance at +250 are intriguing. A one-unit shot on the under is the play.
Paul is torn but leans Gamrot, citing that wrestling may be negated in the big cage and that Gamrot has speed and grappling advantages. He mentions Dariush's chin issues from the past and that Gamrot's power could be a factor. Paul is not sure about betting but picks Gamrot.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. He questions the quality of Dariush's wins (e.g., Ferguson) and notes Dariush's long layoff due to a broken leg. He believes Gamrot's youth, momentum, and grappling will overwhelm Dariush, predicting a decision win with some dangerous moments.
Zane picks Dariush, arguing that Dariush's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight early will give him an edge. He notes that Dariush is a hell of a grappler and can match Gamrot's wrestling, and that Gamrot's takedowns don't lead to control. He admits it's a close fight and that Dariush's tendency to get hurt is a concern, but he thinks Dariush can win a decision or finish.
Jalin Turner - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.
Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.
Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.
Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.
Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.
The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.
Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.
The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.
Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Connor picks Turner because he sees a clear level gap: Bahamondes has never beaten a good UFC fighter and is a classic tall man who doesn't like fighting at distance, while Turner is a long-range striker with fast, straight shots. Connor notes that Bahamondes has poor defense and will struggle against Turner's reach and power. He also points out that Turner has fought much better competition and performed well in close fights.
Lucrative James picks Turner as an underdog, citing Turner's early power and finishing ability. He thinks Turner will land big shots early and potentially finish, as Bahamondes is hittable. He notes Turner's cardio issues but believes he can win by stoppage or even decision if he hurts Bahamondes early. He admits he needs more tape study but leans Turner.
Zane picks Turner, agreeing with Connor that Bahamondes is not a good range fighter and has poor defense. He notes that Turner is a nuclear puncher who is much faster and has a flexible striking game. Zane acknowledges Turner's occasional mental lapses but believes Bahamondes lacks the talent to exploit them. He is surprised by the betting line favoring Bahamondes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 1 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 36 of 67 | 53% | 87 of 128 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 1 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 32 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 55 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 16 of 40 | 40% | 10 of 32 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 36 of 67 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 9 of 25 | 36% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 28 of 51 | 54% | 26 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 38 |
Angelo is confident in Jalin Turner, citing his phenomenal striking, length, and takedown defense. He notes Moicano's BJJ is dangerous but Turner should piece him up and potentially finish. He mentions Turner has never won a decision, so a finish is likely.
Cody is high on Turner's potential. He notes Turner's length (6'3", 77-inch reach), solid takedown defense (75%), and nasty power. Moicano lacks volume and offensive wrestling; his wins often come by quick submission or low-volume decisions. Cody points out that Moicano was a 145er and Turner is a big lightweight who could even be a middleweight. He believes Turner's power and reach will be too much, and he expects a finish, possibly a first-round knockout. Cody mentions Turner's cardio issues in past fights but thinks Moicano doesn't have the pressure to exploit them.
Connor picks Turner, emphasizing that Moicano's counter-punching and wrestling will not be enough. He notes that Turner is difficult to take down and works well from his back, while Moicano's confidence often breaks when pressured. Connor believes Turner's reach and power will be too much for Moicano to handle over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jalin Turner, citing his improved striking, range management, and takedown defense. He believes Turner's power and length will be too much for Moicano, and that Turner will knock him out. Vreeland notes Moicano's submission threat but doubts his chin can hold up.
Turner has a striking advantage and power, but Moicano will grab a body lock and drag the fight to the ground. Moicano's BJJ will reign supreme, opening a back take opportunity for a rear-naked choke submission. Moicano pulls off the upset as a +195 underdog.
Paul agrees, noting Moicano's last performance against Drew Dober was a problem—he got a takedown in round three but did little with it. Paul points out that Moicano's wrestling should have dominated Dober but didn't. He also mentions Turner is a big lightweight, while Moicano moved up from 145. Paul thinks Turner's power will be decisive and expects a finish, possibly a first-round knockout. He notes that Moicano's cardio wasn't great in the Dober fight either.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano to submit Jalin Turner via rear-naked choke in round one. He notes that Moicano has submission ability and that Turner has been taken down and controlled by grapplers like Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Moicano will find Turner's hips, take his back, and sink in the choke.
Zane picks Turner confidently, despite disliking his style. He notes that Turner's reach and power make him dangerous early, and Moicano is hittable and prone to losing confidence. Zane argues that Moicano's clinch wrestling will not work against Turner's size and defensive grappling. He expects Turner to knock Moicano out early or win a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| King Green | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 1 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| King Green | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 33 of 60 | 55% | 26 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| King Green | 15 of 26 | 57% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 33 of 60 | 55% | 26 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| King Green | 15 of 26 | 57% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner despite short notice, citing his size advantage and danger everywhere. He thinks Turner's reach and height will be a problem for Green, and that Green's hands-down style could get him caught. He expects an early finish but notes cardio concerns if the fight extends. He calls it a step down in competition for Turner.
Cody is torn but tentatively picks Turner. He acknowledges Turner's weight cut issues and short notice, but thinks Turner is faster, longer, and the better striker. He worries about Turner's cardio in later rounds but believes if Turner minds his distance, he can win. He considers waiting for weigh-ins and possibly betting Green live after the first round.
Lucrative James leans towards Bobby Green as a dog, noting that Jalin Turner has never won a decision and has a questionable chin. He believes if Green survives round one, the fight becomes 50-50, with Green having an edge in later rounds. He is not confident but sees value in Green at plus money.
Green is on a two-fight winning streak and has a volume-heavy style that could overwhelm Turner. Turner has lost two in a row and has had weight issues, plus he took this fight on short notice. Green's durability and pressure should allow him to outwork Turner, especially if the fight goes into deep waters. A decision win is predicted.
Paul already bet Bobby Green at plus money. He cites Green's durability, cardio, and the fact that Turner missed weight last time and is on short notice. He thinks Green can go hard three rounds and that Turner's cardio falls off. He also likes Green round three prop at +2000. He notes Green is historically a slow starter but believes he can take over late.
The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner, citing his reach advantage, versatility, and ability to chop the legs and body. He believes Bobby Green struggles without a reach advantage and that Turner's dynamic striking will be too much. He expects a decision win for Turner, 30-27.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 100 of 177 | 56% | 113 of 191 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 125 of 197 | 63% | 172 of 247 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 3:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 34 of 69 | 49% | 34 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 38 of 54 | 70% | 39 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 34 of 60 | 56% | 34 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 44 of 81 | 54% | 48 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 32 of 48 | 66% | 45 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 43 of 62 | 69% | 85 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 100 of 177 | 56% | 63 of 128 | 30 of 37 | 7 of 12 | 78 of 152 | 18 of 21 | 4 of 4 |
| Jalin Turner | 125 of 197 | 63% | 77 of 139 | 25 of 32 | 23 of 26 | 100 of 157 | 19 of 31 | 6 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 34 of 69 | 49% | 16 of 47 | 13 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 30 of 64 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 38 of 54 | 70% | 16 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 16 | 35 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 34 of 60 | 56% | 23 of 44 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 51 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 44 of 81 | 54% | 27 of 59 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 38 of 70 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 32 of 48 | 66% | 24 of 37 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 37 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 |
| Jalin Turner | 43 of 62 | 69% | 34 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 36 | 10 of 17 | 6 of 9 |
Angelo is confident in Turner, calling him a 'pretty easy pick'. He notes Turner's excellent boxing, range management, and well-roundedness (3 of last 4 wins by submission). Hooker is durable but Angelo thinks he'll be a step behind. He is only slightly concerned about Hooker turning it into a wrestling match, but believes Turner can handle it. He recommends Turner for parlays.
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Turner is very dangerous with scary power, and Hooker has been knocked out recently by Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen. He believes Hooker will try to wrestle but doesn't have the takedown game to exploit Turner's takedown defense. He expects a striking match where Turner finishes Hooker early. He mentions that Turner is five years younger and more in his prime.
Cody picks Turner but is hesitant at -260. He thinks Turner's length and power will be too much for Hooker, who has taken a lot of damage. He notes Hooker's durability may be fading. He considers the under 1.5 rounds but doesn't feel great about it. He mentions Turner's cardio issues in the past but expects an early knockout.
Connor picks Turner, emphasizing that Hooker's game relies on being the taller fighter with reach, which he won't have here. He notes that Turner's pressure and collar-tie game will be effective, and that Hooker's slow starts and reactive style play into Turner's hands. Connor sees Turner as younger, faster, and more powerful, making this a bad matchup for Hooker.
Daniel Levi picks Turner, noting that he has improved his range management and defense, and that Hooker has taken too much damage throughout his career. Levi points out that Hooker will be the shorter man for the first time, facing a three-inch reach disadvantage. He acknowledges that the minus-260 price is high but believes Turner is catching Hooker at the right time. Levi also mentions that Turner has been training outside his comfort zone, including in Abu Dhabi with Khamzat Chimaev, which shows his dedication to improvement.
James picks Jalin Turner to win by knockout. He notes Turner is on an upward trajectory while Hooker is on a downward one. He praises Turner's improved speed, accuracy, and range management. He acknowledges Turner's chin is questionable and Hooker could land, but thinks Hooker will have to endure too much punishment. He also mentions Turner missed weight but doesn't think it was intentional.
Turner has dangerous striking and a strong submission game, while Hooker is hittable and has durability concerns. Hooker may have a technical striking advantage and output, but Turner's power and ability to club and sub will eventually catch Hooker. Fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.
Paul picks Turner but struggles with the price. He notes Hooker's durability has declined after many wars. He thinks Turner likely finishes him early but doesn't see value at -260. He would consider the under 1.5 rounds but isn't confident. He mentions Hooker's size and experience as potential factors.
The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner to win by second-round TKO. He criticizes Hooker's lack of head movement and declining chin, noting that Turner has a similar reach and will land clean shots. He believes Turner's patience and power will overwhelm Hooker, who has shown slower reaction times recently.
Zane picks Turner, citing his size, speed, and pressure. He notes that Hooker struggles when faced with bigger, more determined fighters who march him down, as seen against Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler. Zane believes Turner's pressure and power will make Hooker uncomfortable, and that Hooker's game as the shorter man is untested and likely to fail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 29 of 42 | 69% | 89 of 109 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 60 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 29 of 42 | 69% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 |
| Jalin Turner | 40 of 97 | 41% | 23 of 72 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 90 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 14 | 64% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jalin Turner | 12 of 31 | 38% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 13 of 17 | 76% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jalin Turner | 18 of 48 | 37% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.
Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.
Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.
Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.
Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.
Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jalin Turner, citing his length, raw power, and superior grappling. He notes that Turner mixes in kicks well and has higher volume and takedown accuracy than Riddell. He believes Riddell may be more technically sound but Turner's physical advantages will prevail.
Big Brady is confident in Jalin Turner, citing his massive size advantage (8-inch height, 4-inch reach) and 100% finish rate. He believes Turner's length and power will be too much for Brad Riddell, despite Turner's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round finish.
Cody thinks Riddell is a slow starter but has great cardio and technical kickboxing. He expects Turner to win the first round but tire, allowing Riddell to take over. He recommends betting Riddell live after the first round for a better price.
Daniel Levi leans toward Jalin Turner, citing his impressive improvements and physical attributes (6'3" with 77" reach). He notes Turner's variety of strikes and submission threat, and believes he is ready to usher out the old guard. However, he acknowledges that Brad Riddell is a world champion kickboxer and that the fight is a tough call. He considers the value on Riddell at +125 but ultimately leans Turner without placing a bet.
Turner has length, speed, and creativity. He uses his lead right hook effectively from southpaw. Riddell needs to close distance to land, but Turner can counter him. Turner's cardio is a concern if the fight goes long, but he likely finishes early. The submission prop at +700 is good value.
Paul is waiting for a better price on Riddell, possibly +150 or more. He likes Riddell's durability and pressure, and thinks he can win if he survives the first round. He plans to bet live.
The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner to win by TKO, citing his massive height and reach advantage at lightweight (6'3" with 75.5" reach). He notes Turner's power and unorthodox striking, and that Brad Riddell has been hurt in fights before. He expects Turner to hurt Riddell in the late second round and finish him with a flurry of strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 52 of 111 | 46% | 53 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 35 of 59 | 59% | 45 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 0 | 39 of 87 | 44% | 40 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 33 of 53 | 62% | 43 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 2 | Jalin Turner | 1 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 52 of 111 | 46% | 34 of 86 | 17 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 44 of 96 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 35 of 59 | 59% | 22 of 41 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 39 of 87 | 44% | 24 of 65 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 82 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 33 of 53 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jalin Turner | 13 of 24 | 54% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jalin Turner, believing his volume and accuracy will overcome Mullarkey's takedowns. He notes Turner has never won a decision but thinks he can get his first here. He mentions Mullarkey's recent striking success but thinks Turner is the better striker. He also plans to bet over 1.5 rounds if the line drops.
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner to win by knockout in the first or second round. He highlights Turner's size and reach advantage for lightweight, as well as his power and well-rounded skills. Brady notes that Mullarkey has poor striking defense and may struggle with Turner's length. He also thinks Turner is the better grappler and could submit Mullarkey if the fight goes to the mat. Brady acknowledges Mullarkey's toughness but believes Turner's skill set is superior.
Cody sees Turner's upside as higher, with crazy power, length, and technical striking. He notes Turner's grappling improvement but questions his cardio beyond 8 minutes. Cody bet the under in this fight, expecting an early finish, and leans Turner but is not fully confident.
Daniel Levi picks Jalin Turner to knock out Jamie Mullarkey. He highlights Turner's long reach and range tools, and believes Turner's composure and distance management have improved. He notes that Mullarkey is tough but gets hit too much, and Turner's size and weapons (knees, kicks, hands) will be too much. He thinks Turner will finish Mullarkey, possibly by knockout.
Turner has improved his grappling and killer instinct, as seen in his recent wins. Mullarkey is durable and has a good clinch game, but Turner's length and kickboxing from the outside should be key. Turner can nullify Mullarkey's takedowns and get back to striking. Mullarkey's only path is a big punch or relentless grappling, but Turner's growth makes him the pick.
Paul argues Mullarkey is a live underdog with great cardio, toughness, and pressure. He notes Turner's wins are over low-level opponents and he struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Matt Frevola). Paul believes Mullarkey will weather Turner's early speed and take over in rounds 2 and 3 with grinding wrestling and pace, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey as an underdog over Jalin Turner, citing Mullarkey's improvement since training with Alexander Volkanovski. He believes pressure fighters do well against Turner, referencing the close Matt Frevola fight. He predicts Mullarkey will lose the first round but use his toughness and body shots to finish Turner in the third round via TKO against the cage. He notes Turner's long torso makes him vulnerable to body shots.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.
Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.
Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.
Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.
Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.
Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.
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