vs
-1400 +1200
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 6' 2"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Bo Nickal
3.35 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.07 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
2.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jamie Pickett
2.65 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.62 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.26 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Bo Nickal
Moneyline
DraftKings -1400
KO/TKO
BetRivers +245
Submission
FanDuel -175
Decision
FanDuel +900
Jamie Pickett
Moneyline
BetRivers +1200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2300
Submission
BetMGM +4000
Decision
BetRivers +2900
Bo Nickal - Fight History
SCHED vs Kyle Daukaus
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)

AJ is hesitant on picking Daukaus because Nickal is a freak athlete and elite wrestler. He mentions Daukaus is tricky out of southpaw but does not commit to a pick.

"The reason I'm hesitant on picking Dawis is Bone Nickel is still a freak athlete and an elite elite level wrestler."
KO R3 2:24 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 1 77 of 121 63% 94 of 143 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:28
Rodolfo Vieira 0 24 of 64 37% 31 of 71 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 28 of 46 60% 37 of 60 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:05
Rodolfo Vieira 0 7 of 19 36% 11 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Bo Nickal 0 38 of 59 64% 46 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Rodolfo Vieira 0 14 of 39 35% 17 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Bo Nickal 1 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Vieira 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 77 of 121 63% 56 of 93 13 of 19 8 of 9 64 of 103 7 of 9 6 of 9
Rodolfo Vieira 24 of 64 37% 7 of 38 6 of 12 11 of 14 23 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 28 of 46 60% 22 of 38 4 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 29 6 of 8 6 of 9
Rodolfo Vieira 7 of 19 36% 2 of 10 1 of 3 4 of 6 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 38 of 59 64% 27 of 45 7 of 10 4 of 4 37 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rodolfo Vieira 14 of 39 35% 4 of 24 4 of 8 6 of 7 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bo Nickal 11 of 16 68% 7 of 10 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rodolfo Vieira 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-225), Vieira (+185)

Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Nickal opens with a jab and then a left. He backs up and lands a front kick and a leg kick. They collide and Nickal lifts Viera and executes an emphatic slam. He unleashes a barrage of short punches to the head as Vieira strands. Nickal switches to knees and then lands an elbow that cuts the grappling ace. Vieira turns nickal into the fence and lands some close quarters offense of his own. Nickal frees himself and they’re back int the center of the Octagon. Nickal just misses a left. Vieira ducks under a high kick and Vieira shoots for a takedown against the fence. Nickal briefly threatens with a guillotine but Vieira is OK. Vieira stands and Nickal lands a hard elbow before they break. Vieira fires off a straight right .Nickal has a head kick blocked. A couple lefts land for the American. Vieira probes with a low kick. Nickal pumps a jab and then lands a front kick. Vieira keeps the pressure on , but Nickal is active with his striking, particularly left hands. Another left and a jab get through for Nickal. The round ends without further incident.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 2
Vieira opens with a solid right hand. Vieira catches Nickal coming forward with another rigth. Nickal steps in with a hard body kic. Nickal freezes Vieira with a combination, then lands another body kick. Nickal lunges in and lands another left hand. A couple jabs form Nickal snap Vieira’s head back. Nickal is winning exchanges, relying on combinations and superior hand speed. Vieira is bleeding profusely now. The Brazilian counters a kick with a right and then shoots for a takedown against the fence. Vieira gets an underhook and lands some punches before Nickal frees himself. Another straight left gets through for Nickal. Vieira lands a right as Nickal moves forward. Nickal rocks Vieira with a left and then finds the range on a short uppercut. Vieira is still in the fight, but he’s still bleeding and his eye is swelling shut. Nickal sprawls on a takedown with about 20 seconds left. Nickal lands some short punches and a knee as Vieira stands.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 3
Vieira lands a decent right during an initial exchange. Nickal pumps out his jab. Nickal lunges in with a left and then lands another left to the body. Another lunging left connects for the Penn State All American. Nickal with a hard inside leg kick. The crowd is getting restless with the pace of the bout, which is mostly one shot at a time — but that’s working well for Nickal. Nickal connects on a 1-2 and then seemingly out of nowhere,
he unleashes a left head kick that lands clean. An unconscious Vieira collapses in a heap on the canvas
, and Nickal knows he needs no follow-up offerings. Nickal climbs on the cage and flips off the crowd in celebration as he rebounds from his first career defeat in emphatic fashion.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Rodolfo Vieira via KO (Head Kick) R3 2:24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to the high price (-220) and Nickal's recent loss. He believes Nickal will play it safe, use his scrambling skills, and win a decision. He thinks the opening odds (Nickal as underdog) were more accurate. He expects a boring fight and does not bet.

"I'm going to pick Bo here because I think what he's going to do is play it safe... I don't think I'm going to touch these minus 220 odds though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal but is unenthusiastic, calling it the worst fight on the card. He expects a boring decision, similar to Nickal's fight with Paul Craig, where Nickal avoided grappling and struck for 15 minutes. Brady believes Nickal can dictate where the fight takes place but thinks both fighters may prefer to strike, leading to a sloppy decision. He predicts Nickal wins a 'greasy decision' with the crowd behind him.

decision
"I'm going to say Bo Nickel wins a greasy decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody picks Vieira as a value underdog. He notes that Bo Nickal's striking has looked poor in recent fights and that he may be hesitant to wrestle Vieira due to his BJJ. Cody believes that if the fight stays on the feet, Vieira can out-strike Nickal, and if it goes to the ground, Vieira has the advantage. He also speculates that the UFC may be setting Nickal up to fail.

"Too much value there. PRP pick. PRP pick Rodolfo Vieira. Don't love it. I really don't, but there's some serious value there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight is a coin flip. He notes that both fighters have shown they can melt down, and expects a staring contest. Connor mentions that Vieira has a jab but Bo Nickal is southpaw, which could lead to a miserable fight.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Connor says 'I think it's likely to be bad and decisive'.
"I'm still going to pick Vera in that fight, but yeah, it could, it could be a real coin flip."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel sees this as Nickal's fight to lose, as he has the wrestling to neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu and the athleticism to improve rapidly. However, he is cautious because Nickal looked broken in his last fight and needs to show he has rebounded. He picks Nickal but plans to watch and learn rather than bet heavily.

"As a pure pick, I'm going to take Bo Nickel, but I'm going to sit back and relax and enjoy the show."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James picks Bo Nickal to win by decision, but with low confidence after Nickal's poor performance against Paul Craig. He believes Nickal has better wrestling and striking, and can defend Vieira's takedowns and submissions. He expects Nickal to use his athleticism to control the fight on the feet and avoid danger on the ground. He predicts a decision win for Nickal.

by decision
"I'm going to pick Bo Nickel here. I'm going to pick Bickel via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal lands bigger shots on the feet, stuffs Vieira's takedowns, and punishes him with enough volume to win on the scorecards. Vieira won't step on the gas like Paul Craig did.

"I expect Nickel to land bigger shots on the feet, stuff the takedowns of Vieiraa and punish him with enough volume to end up winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he already bet Vieira at plus odds. He points out that Nickal's striking has been exposed and that Vieira is a live underdog. Paul thinks that even if the fight is a close striking affair, Vieira has a chance to win a decision. He is comfortable with the value and believes it's a good betting spot.

"I already bet it. Bet it like plus 205."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The Guru hesitantly picks Bo Nickal to win a close 29-28 decision. He notes that Nickal has learned from his loss to Dolidze and should be able to outpoint Vieira, who lacks finishing threat on the feet and has cardio issues. However, he acknowledges Vieira's submission threat and the possibility of a grappling exchange. The Guru expects a low-action striking match.

"I'm going to go bow nickel, though. I am going to go bow nickel. I think he'll figure out Rodo Vieiraa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Zane picks Vieira but is hesitant, noting the fight is entirely dependent on whether Vieira can get out of his own head. He highlights that both fighters have similar problems with inexperience and mental fragility, and expects a bad fight. Zane thinks it's a coin flip and would be happy with even odds.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Zane says 'I would be happy as to this was at dead, even odds'.
"I have to pick it off over here. Same. But if he doesn't show up, like if he gets in his own head about this fight, then it could be very touch and go."
KO R2 1:53 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 1 22 of 32 68% 91 of 104 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Bo Nickal 0 8 of 21 38% 24 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 5 of 10 50% 43 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:52
Bo Nickal 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:00
2 Reinier de Ridder 1 17 of 22 77% 48 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Bo Nickal 0 6 of 15 40% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 7 of 15 15 of 17 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 8 of 21 38% 2 of 13 4 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 14 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 17 of 22 77% 7 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 10 11 of 12 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 6 of 15 40% 1 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3 3 of 10 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Nickal (-325), de Ridder (+260)

Round 1
The co-main event of UFC on ESPN 67 features a couple of middleweight ground specialists who have yet to suffer defeat in the Octagon, but the similarities end there, as former ONE two-division champ de Ridder will pit his Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops against Nickal, perhaps the most accomplished amateur wrestler ever to cross over to mixed martial arts this early in his athletic prime. Something’s got to give, and Mike Beltran will be charged with keeping things legal. Both fighters come out in southpaw stance, and Nickal wastes no time in clinching and driving the taller man to the cage. After some pummeling for position, but no serious takedown attempts by either man, they break things off and move away from the fence. It’s “The Dutch Knight” who initiates the next clinch, appearing to contemplate a takedown of his own, but Nickal spins him against the fence. De Ridder reverses him again and throws a couple of short punches to the body. Nickal drops for a single-leg, picks the opposite ankle and grounds de Ridder with ease near the base of the fence. As de Ridder begins to stand, Nickal grabs a guillotine, closes his guard and tries to submit the submission specialist. There’s nothing doing there, and Nickal is forced to give up the choke. Worse, he is forced to give up top position to de Ridder, who sets up in half guard. Nickal gets up and de Ridder threatens to take his back. Nickal gets his hips out and uses a double-leg to stand, then ground de Ridder. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
De Ridder comes forward fearlessly to open Round 2, throwing a knee up the middle and driving Nickal towards the fence. They clinch and de Ridder uses an overhook to hold the shorter man in place for a couple of left knees to the breadbasket. Nickal hauls de Ridder away from the fence, but de Ridder follows him and nails him with a big knee to the sternum. It takes a few seconds for de Ridder to realize how badly he has his man hurt, but he sticks with what brought him to the dance, driving more knees into the retreating American. Nickal staggers back to the fence and slides to his right as de Ridder follows, pouring on the punishment.
Nickal tries to come off the fence with an overhand left, but it misses badly and de Ridder keeps crushing him as he goes careening all the way across the cage. A final right knee to the jaw melts Nickal, who collapses to all fours at the base of the fence. With Nickal having taken about 20 unanswered strikes and making no move to defend himself, referee Beltran moves in to halt the onslaught.
Reinier de Ridder has taken care of business, putting away one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects in shockingly one-sided fashion. Time will tell how this result ages, and where these two men’s career tracks diverge from here, but in the moment, this did not even look like the upset it supposedly was.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Bo Nickal R2 1:53 via TKO (Knees)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.

No bet; cautious despite odds
"Bo Nickal is the pick, but I'm a little weary."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.

Round 2 KO
"I like Nickel here. Uh, I think Nickel is going to knock out Renee De Ritter at some point in this fight. We'll call it second round knockout for Bo Nickel."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Let's split it: I'll pick Bo Nickal, you pick de Ridder."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.

knockout
"I think that will eventually lead to Nickel landing a big shot on Ditter and putting him out, winning this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Bo Nickel. I think he has the wrestling instincts. First of all, Derida I don't think gets a takedown on him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.

Odds: Nickal -332, de Ridder +280. Zane thinks the odds should be closer to a pick'em given Nickal's last showing.
"I'll pick de Ridder to just repeat this GM3 fight and we're gonna see... the athletic higher athletic ceiling and much lower level of experience and technical skill are going to balance out."
WIN vs Paul Craig
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 54 of 85 63% 54 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 47 of 129 36% 48 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 35 37% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bo Nickal 0 22 of 26 84% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 21 of 48 43% 21 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 28 57% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 54 of 85 63% 24 of 50 13 of 16 17 of 19 54 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 47 of 129 36% 21 of 93 14 of 23 12 of 13 47 of 129 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 16 of 31 51% 5 of 17 3 of 5 8 of 9 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 35 37% 4 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 22 of 26 84% 10 of 13 8 of 9 4 of 4 22 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 21 of 48 43% 11 of 33 8 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bo Nickal 16 of 28 57% 9 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 6 16 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 46 28% 6 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 5 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paul Craig vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)

Round 1
A pair of middleweights with 100% finish rates throw down in a clash that could find the winner with a number next to their name come Tuesday. Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) has not encountered much opposition in the cage thus far as a pro, while Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC) cannot say the same. Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the Octagon for this one. There is no touch of gloves. Nickal starts out the initial aggressor, faking takedowns and tossing out a front kick. Nickal comes up short on a reaching left hand, and he changes stances to find another look. Craig absorbs a heavy calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to block a huge swinging left hand. Nickal chops at the front leg two more times as Craig walks him down, and Craig lets loose a body kick. Nickal absorbs a knee on the chin and a left hand, and a hard Craig leg kick makes Nickal take a funny step. Both men unload with power punches at the same time and glance off one another, and Nickal chambers and fires a huge right hand that misses. Craig checks a kick and fires off one that ricochets off the raised guard, and he has a second also blocked. Craig raises his leg as a body shield, and Nickal is unable to get his hands on him. Nickal reaches out with a side kick and a left hand, and Craig kicks him twice in response. Nickal wings another left hand, reaching out far and landing with a glancing blow. Craig checks a kick and slides back to not let Nickal get to him. Craig spins with a fake kick, and he slides back as Nickal aims a body shot. Craig pump-fakes several kicks until letting one loose, and Nickal doubles up on the left hook. Craig jabs his way in, and he starts talking to the unbeaten fighter. Nickal has one kick checked, and the second is not. Craig throws a kick that grazes the shoulder, and he rolls with a right hand that buzzes his hair. Nickal absorbs a right hand on the chin, which holds up well as he backpedals. Craig gets drilled with a left hook, and Nickal pitches another fastball that gives Craig brief pause. Craig again brings up a knee to intercept Nickal, and he chops at the front leg of his foe. Craig kicks his foe in the gloves, and the close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Craig

Round 2
Between rounds, Craig tells his corner how much fun he is having in the cage, grinning from ear to ear. The two start off the round again, with Craig jabbing his way forward into a head kick that comes up short. Craig kicks with his other leg, and he almost falls over but manages to keep his balance. Nickal has a huge right hand come over the top, and he has a kick caught. Craig chatters to his adversary, and Nickal does not change his expression. Nickal scores at the end of a left hand, and Craig responds with a right hand and keeps on talking. Craig swats away Nickal’s outstretched hand, whipping a kick to the guard. Nickal aims a body shot and goes over the top with a left hand, and Craig’s eyes open up a bit wider. Craig blocks a body kick with his knee, and Nickal jabs him in the chest and blasts him with an overhand right. Craig swarms forward with two punches and a high front kick, and he flicks out a jab. Nickal scores a body shot, and he cannot quite block the body kick that comes back his direction. Craig just misses with an uppercut as Nickal ducks down, and he takes a left hand on the chin. Craig lets fly two kicks and eats a body shot on the way back, with Nickal swinging hard with his left hand. The Scot checks a kick and talks to his opponent, and after they shadowbox, he lets fly one more body kick. Nickal winds up with a left hand and thumps his man in the chin, and Craig’s responsive elbow misses by a tiny margin. Craig sticks out a left and then a right, and he launches a body kick that hammers into the wrestler’s arms. Nickal splits the guard with a left and is disciplined enough to block the body kick he knows his coming at him, and he shells up to defend against a second. Nickal steps in with a right hand and catches Craig with a second, and the two both smack one another before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 3
The fighters meet in the middle to start the final frame, and Craig is the one marching forward first. After about 20 seconds, Craig tosses a half-hearted low kick, and Nickal counters him with a heavy right hand over the guard. Craig uses a side kick to push off, and he blocks a body kick. Nickal considers a takedown but abandons it, and he steps back as Craig’s leg whizzes past him. Nickal stands still and lets Craig walk around him, and he laughs and claps hands with his confused foe. Craig kicks the front leg twice, and he aims his shin at the chest after Nickal changes stances. Craig rifles a right hand down the pipe, and Nickal kicks him in the lead leg to respond. Nickal fakes a level change, and the audience showers the fighters with boos for their sparring match. Craig lets loose a high kick, and Nickal thanks him by clapping him on the side of the head with a right hook. Nickal skirts away, blocking a head kick and clipping Craig with a huge left hand. Craig grabs his eye, which starts swelling immediately and he backs up to the cage wall. Nickal corners him but picks his shots very carefully, and he does not engage with more than a right hook. Nickal springs away from a high kick and wings a left hand on the damaged eye, further hurting the Scot. Nickal kicks the front leg and dances away from danger, zipping in and out without much concern of reprisal. Craig jabs a few times, whiffs on a head kick and a front kick. Nickal rips a left to the body, and Craig starts pointing at him as the fans chant “overrated” at Nickal. Craig checks a kick, and Nickal draws his foot back uncomfortably. With seconds to spare, the Penn State wrestler sells out with haymakers, dinging Craig again and eating one in response. The disappointment of a fight comes to an end, and Nickal mimes swinging a golf club and goes over to talk to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been in the building since the end of the prelims.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (30-27 Nickal)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal, calling it a clear win. He notes Nickal's elite wrestling and that Paul Craig is dangerous on the ground but Nickal can grapple with anyone. He speculates Nickal might test his striking since Craig is not dangerous on the feet. He is unsure about betting due to uncertainty over method of victory.

"B Nichols the clear as day pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal by first-round knockout, agreeing with Paul Craig that Nickal should keep the fight standing. He notes that Craig is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, while Nickal has quick hands and power. He believes Nickal will follow Kyle Daukaus' blueprint and knock out Craig early. He also likes the under on 1.5 takedowns for Nickal on PrizePicks.

less than 1.5 takedowns
"I like b nickel here I think he wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody picks Bo Nickal by submission, citing Nickal's elite wrestling and positional dominance. He notes Paul Craig is a one-trick pony with a suspect chin and weak wrestling, and that Nickal can take the fight wherever he wants. Cody expects Nickal to submit Craig, possibly with a rear-naked choke.

submission
"Bo Nichols sub is my official pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor also picks Nickal but is hesitant, acknowledging that Craig's submission game is dangerous. He thinks Nickal's wrestling and athleticism will allow him to scramble and wear Craig out, but Craig could catch him in a submission if Nickal gets too aggressive. Connor is interested in the fight as a test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Vreeland picks Craig as a big underdog because he sees value in Craig's submission threat. He notes Craig subbed Magomed Ankalaev and that Bo Nickal is still inexperienced in Jiu-Jitsu. Vreeland thinks Craig can catch a guillotine on one of Nickal's takedowns or take his back. He also points out that Nickal took over 8 minutes to finish Cody Brundage, suggesting he is not invincible.

"I think there's at least a seven to one chance that that happens... give me Paul Craig"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, acknowledging Paul Craig's impressive submission wins but believing Nickal's wrestling credentials and grappling ability will neutralize Craig's game. He thinks Nickal can keep the fight standing or on the ground and avoid Craig's submissions. He calls it a 'boring' pick but sees Nickal as the clear favorite.

"I'm going to be boring and pick the minus 10,000 favorite"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Fox picks Nickal, citing his athleticism, youth, and wrestling as a cheat code. He believes Craig has no chance against a wrestler of Nickal's caliber. Fox acknowledges the line is steep but is confident Nickal will win.

"obviously the uh athleticism Youth and strength is is a cheat code and um yeah this point in his career uh Craig does not really have a chance here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James confidently picks Bo Nickal, the massive -1000 favorite. He believes Nickal's wrestling can dictate where the fight goes, and even if he shoots takedowns into Craig's guard, he can dominate from top position. He thinks Nickal is smart enough to keep it standing and knock Craig out, or slam him and finish on the ground. He notes Craig's dangerous submissions but feels Nickal will stay safe and win inside the distance, likely in round one.

wins inside the distance, wins in round one
"I think Bo is probably going to stay safe on top so even in Paul Craig's most dangerous realm which is most likely the ground here I still think Bo is going to win that fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Bo Nickal

The host expects Nickal to utilize his striking more effectively, looking for a knockout rather than going into Craig's dangerous guard. However, he notes the plus 200 submission prop on Nickal is worth considering. He officially picks Nickal by knockout.

submission prop at +200
"I do think he'll utilize his striking a little bit more effectively here looking for that knockout against Craig rather than going into the guard which is so dangerous of Craigs although I would not be surprised if Niko wants …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul picks Bo Nickal by knockout, arguing Craig is chinny and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. He expects Nickal to take Craig down, soften him with ground and pound, and eventually knock him out as Craig tires. Paul likes the under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds, knockout
"I'm personally lean towards the knockout I think Bo just Cooks him with a shot as he gets tired"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal, expecting a first-round KO. He acknowledges Paul Craig's submission threat but believes Nickal's wrestling and striking will overwhelm Craig. He notes Nickal's early finishes and thinks Craig's limited striking will be exposed.

first round KO
"I think b nickel is going to knock out Paul Craig on the feet in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane picks Nickal but is not confident, noting that Nickal is raw and was coached through basic grappling in his last fight. He thinks Nickal's athleticism and scrambling ability will wear out Craig, but Craig's submission threat is real. Zane finds the fight interesting because it's a genuine test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission if Nickal makes a mistake
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
WIN vs Cody Brundage
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:38 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 8 of 13 61% 45 of 59 3 of 6 50% 2 0 7:25
Cody Brundage 0 4 of 12 33% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 5 of 7 71% 24 of 28 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:25
Cody Brundage 0 2 of 6 33% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Bo Nickal 0 3 of 6 50% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:00
Cody Brundage 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 8 of 13 61% 6 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 8
Cody Brundage 4 of 12 33% 1 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
Cody Brundage 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4
Cody Brundage 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-2100), Brundage (+1100)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the widest discrepancy on the betting lines tonight by a mile. As a prohibitive -1400, Nickal (5-0, 2-0 UFC) is largely expected to walk through the tough but outmatched-on-paper Brundage (10-5, 3-4 UFC). There are many questions that could be answered, as the unbeaten four-time DI NCAA All-American has never before competed beyond the three-minute mark in an MMA match. Whether this match lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, referee Chris Tognoni is on the call and ready for action. The underdog offers a glove touch, but Nickal wants nothing to do with it. Instead, Nickal fakes shooting for a takedown almost immediately. Brundage is well out of the way, and he fires off a flying head kick and a jump knee. Brundage lands a hard right hand to surprise the unbeaten fighter, and Nickal responds with a power punch and a takedown attempt. Brundage rolls through to get back to his feet, and Nickal presses him hard against the fence. Nickal scoops Brundage up and slams him down, and Brundage pops right back up without batting an eye. Nickal succeeds to get a mat return, dropping Brundage down to his knees, but Brundage stands up before Nickal can get hooks in. Nickal pushes down his full body weight to trap Brundage down on the ground, and he slithers a hook in and sneaks his arm under the chin for a second. Brundage turns his head to the side to thwart the choke, and Nickal keeps one arm on the chin to threaten. Brundage hand-fights to stop the choke from landing, and Nickal elects to just brute force squeeze his head like a nutcracker. Brundage pushes off enough to get space, and Nickal steps over to full mount while claiming a guillotine. Nickal sits up and has Brundage’s left arm trapped beneath his legs, and he starts beating on Brundage with elbows. Brundage times a shifting Nickal to turn to his knees and lean against the wall, and Nickal stays on him without a hook in fishing for a choke. Nickal gets a hook in from behind, and Brundage keeps two-on-one wrist control to stop any submission danger. Nickal bops him in the face with feeble punches, and Brundage laughs him off as the crowd gives it up for him. Brundage maintains control on the wrist and signals for Tognoni to let him up, and he rides out the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 2
As soon as the round begins, Tognoni calls time to remove some debris from the Octagon. The fighter begin, and Brundage walks Nickal down and lines up an overhand right. Nickal throws a high kick from an odd angle, and when he tries to transition to a takedown, Brundage slings him mightily to the ground. Brundage goes after him and tries to lay into him with strikes, but Nickal recovers, shoots and completes a takedown. Brundage turns to his side as he tries to stand, and Nickal lands sporadic ground-and-pound as he moves into half guard. The crowd gets restless again at Nickal wrestling so heavily, but he ignores it and passes the full mount. Brundage throws punches from his back, and Nickal presses his chest down to set up an arm-triangle choke. Nickal lets it go to land a punch, and he hunts for elbows while Brundage holds onto his face. Nickal postures up and slams down some ground-and-pound, forcing Brundage to turn around and give up his back. Brundage finds himself in immediately submission danger, with Nickal latching onto a rear-naked choke grip that is not yet beneath the chin. Brundage fights off the choke, and Nickal switches arms and slithers the forearm under the chin. Brundage knows he has been outhustled here, and he surrenders before the choke puts him out. Nickal releases the grip on the tap, and he stands up and starts booing himself while putting both thumbs down. He appears not impressed with his own performance.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Cody Brundage R2 3:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling the -2400 odds correct with 96% implied probability. He notes Brundage has power and could land a lucky shot, but Nickal's wrestling is overwhelming. He advises against parlaying Nickal due to poor value and suggests under 1.5 rounds as a better bet.

Under 1.5 rounds; advises not to parlay
"the minus 2400 odds on b nickel now are honestly correct that converts ... 96% and I am 96% sure that b nickel wins this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, noting his elite wrestling and the low level of competition he's faced. He points out that Brundage has poor fight IQ, citing his pulling guard on Ralek Gracie when he was winning, and his tendency to gas out. Cody mentions Brundage has been taken down by Nick Maximov and has no dynamic striking. He expects Nickal to dominate and finish inside the distance, likely by TKO or submission, and thinks the fight won't go past the first round and a half.

Inside the distance, under 1.5 rounds
"Bo romps this guy I'm thinking under one and a half B I want to say by TKO submission is obviously on the table though so you're probably going B inside the distance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, noting that even high-IQ Cody Brundage plays into Nickal's strengths. He mentions that Brundage's path to victory is narrow, possibly a knockout, but that Nickal's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are world-class. He suggests that if betting Brundage, one should take a KO prop at high odds rather than the moneyline.

Cody Brundage KO prop at plus 3000 or first round KO at plus 5500
"high IQ Cody brage is the Cody brage that plays right into B Nichols strength so even high IQ Cody brage would will not win this fight"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal to win, but notes he is not laying 25 units to win one. He acknowledges Nickal's wrestling advantage and expects a first-round finish, but warns that Brundage has knockout power and could pull off an upset. Vreeland is curious to see Nickal past round one but believes he will dominate.

"pure pick is Bo Nickal but no I am not laying 25 units to win one"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Jeff Fox picks Bo Nickal, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that if he had $100 to bet and didn't want to lose it, he'd bet Nickal. He mentions that Brundage could knock Nickal out, but that's a low-probability event, and that Nickal is the safe pick.

"if I got a $100 I've got a $100 that I got a bet on this fight and I don't want to lose my1 I bet b n"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it is what it is but it's good to see Bo Nickal continue his rise. He mentions Cody Brundage has cashed tickets for him in the past. No prediction is given.

"Bo Nickal versus Cody Brundage is what it is but it's good to see Bo Nickal and you know Cody Brundage is the man for cashing us all those tickets over the years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal will get to his takedown quickly and rain down big shots from top position for a TKO win. Brundage is the toughest opponent Nickal has faced but it won't be enough.

TKO
"I think we'll see nickel get to his takedown pretty quickly here and then from that top position rain down big shots and win this fight by TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul sees this as a clear mismatch. He notes that Nickal hasn't faced any adversity yet, so his chin and resolve are untested, but Brundage is not the guy to test them. Paul calls Brundage 'Cody Bumd' and points out his poor performances, including getting knocked out by Alexei Kunchenko and being outgrappled by Nick Maximov. He believes Nickal will easily take Brundage down and finish him. Paul says the moneyline is too short to bet, but everyone will take Nickal inside the distance.

Inside the distance
"I mean the money line what can you do with it but I think everybody's going to take this one inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round finish, calling Cody Brundage a sacrificial lamb. He criticizes Brundage's recent wins as flukes and believes Nickal is superior everywhere. He notes Nickal's high-pressure experience and predicts a rear-naked choke or TKO.

first round finish
"Bo nickel gone rag go this fat boy and he's going to find the finish I reckon by rear naked choke."
WIN vs Val Woodburn
TKO (punches) R1 0:38 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Val Woodburn 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Val Woodburn 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Val Woodburn 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Val Woodburn 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Valentine Woodburn
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-2400), Woodburn (+1200)

Round 1
On quite short notice, this middleweight main card opener has changed. No longer squaring off with Tresean Gore, Nickal (4-0, 1-0 UFC) now will meet promotional newcomer and Combat Night staple Woodburn (7-0, 0-0 UFC). Someone’s 0 has got to go, but based on the incredible -1600 line (or higher) in favor of the Penn State wrestler, the consensus expectation is that Nickal will proceed unscathed. This sport is a wild one, and anything truly can happen. Whether it is a monumental upset or smooth sailing, referee Chris Tognoni will proceed over the whole kit and caboodle. The 185ers do not bother to touch gloves, and they work their way towards one another. Nickal feints and fakes takedowns, and Woodburn chambers a right hand. Woodburn whiffs on a huge right hand, and Nickal crashes forward but disengages before he eats a shot. Nickal connects with a right hand, and Woodburn’s bell is rung. Nickal does not think to change levels, and instead times a blistering left hand that catches Woodburn right on the chin. The wrestler unloads with an uppercut, knocking Woodburn clean off his feet. As Woodburn falls to the ground, Nickal considers hammering the nail but Tognoni is already rushing between them to wave the fight off. Even though Nickal was largely expected to blow through this challenge, he still managed to make a statement by dispatching Woodburn handily with strikes. At 5-0, Nickal is definitely one to watch in the middleweight category.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Valentine Woodburn R1 0:38 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is extremely confident in Nickal, saying he will dominate and finish. He dismisses the idea that Nickal only won his last fight due to a nutshot. He notes Nickal's wrestling pedigree and that Woodburn is a regional wrestler who didn't use wrestling until his last fight. He advises against parlaying Nickal due to minus-1400 odds, but suggests looking for prop bets like first-round submission.

Suggests first-round submission prop at plus money
"Bo nickel is going to win this fight he dominates it's going to be a finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission. He notes that Nickal is a phenomenal wrestler with dangerous grappling, and he expects him to take Woodburn down and choke him out. He questions what happens if Woodburn survives the first round, but believes Nickal will finish early. He comments that the odds (-1400) are wide but that Nickal should win easily. He says we will learn nothing about Nickal from this fight.

first round submission
"bow nickel first round submission takes down Trey Sean Gore takes his back and chokes him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance. He notes Nickal's wrestling is elite and he will take Woodburn down and submit him quickly. He mentions Woodburn is a short-notice replacement with no path to victory. He says the moneyline is unplayable at -2500 but inside distance is the way to go.

Nickal inside distance, under 1.5 rounds, under 10.5 significant strikes
"bow nickel inside the same thing with Joanna's and burrito for the record he was minus 500 inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor picks Nickal, emphasizing that Woodburn's poor striking at range and tendency to crowd himself will make him easy to take down. He notes that Woodburn's only comfortable punching range is in the clinch, which is exactly where Nickal wants to be. Connor is critical of the odds but still sees Nickal as a clear winner.

"Obviously, we're gonna pick him without question here really."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Levi picks Nickal, emphasizing his elite wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He notes that Woodburn is a short, stocky fighter with a good base for takedown defense, but that Nickal's level of wrestling is too high. Levi expects Nickal to finish Woodburn in the first round, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound. He respects Woodburn for taking the fight on short notice but believes this is a mismatch.

Finish in the first round
"I got Beau nickel to blast double this man and finish him in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Bo Nickal

James thinks Bo Nickal will destroy Val Woodburn in round one, but he criticizes the line making Nickal the biggest favorite in UFC history. He argues that we don't know Nickal's chin or cardio, so the line is too wide. He considers a small bet on Woodburn for value but ultimately expects Nickal to win easily.

Bo Nickal wins in round 1; considered 0.1 units on Val Woodburn for value
"I think Bo destroys him in round one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal is a high-level wrestler with improving MMA skills, while Woodburn is a short-notice replacement with limited gas tank and mediocre skills. Nickal will take Woodburn down early and secure a submission. The under 1.5 rounds is a very chalky but confident play.

under 1.5 rounds, round 1 submission
"round one submission just as I thought he would get over to Sean Gore same thing is going to happen here against Woodburn give me nickel."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul agrees Nickal wins easily. He notes Woodburn is a regional fighter with no chance. He says Nickal will take him down and submit him. He mentions the significant strikes prop at 10.5 might be high because Nickal usually finishes quickly with few strikes.

Nickal inside distance, under 10.5 significant strikes
"Bo just takes him down whenever he wants to take them down and and Subs him as he wants to sub him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by submission (rear-naked choke). He acknowledges Woodburn's guillotine threat but believes Nickal's superior wrestling and preparation will overcome it. He notes that Woodburn was taken down by Brian Battle, and Nickal is a much better wrestler. He suggests a small bet on Woodburn by finish due to the odds.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke); suggests sprinkling money on Woodburn by finish due to crazy odds
"Bo nickel is going to choke him out"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane picks Nickal easily, noting that Woodburn's crude technique and reliance on the clinch for punching will play into Nickal's wrestling strength. He acknowledges that Nickal is still raw as an MMA striker but believes his wrestling advantage is overwhelming. Zane warns that Nickal's odds are too high for a prospect, but he still expects a win.

"Pretty easy pick for nickel."
WIN vs Jamie Pickett
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:54 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1400), Pickett (+850)

Round 1
The main card of UFC 285 begins with the hotly anticipated debut of elite college wrestler Nickal (3-0, 0-0 UFC), who is entering only his fourth pro fight with a combined two minutes and 27 seconds of fight time under his belt not counting his amateur outings. He meets Pickett (13-8, 2-4 UFC), whose last trip to the cage lasted nearly 10 minutes, or nearly twice much time as Nickal’s pro and amateur career combined. Nickal comes in as a nonsensical favorite of -2000 or above in some books, and referee Keith Peterson will be the one to clock them in despite that nonsense. The middleweights do not touch gloves, as they would rather get right to it. Nickal leaps forward, jumps in the air with a kick that misses, and he hits the floor. Nickal shoots for a takedown, and Pickett stuffs it on the first try. Nickal shoves him against the wall and knees him a few times, and Pickett grimaces from an apparent knee to the groin. The foul uncalled, Nickal throws his man to his knees, and searches for a possible brabo choke, only to release it to circle around and take the back. Nickal grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and he changes it to a neck crank but lets it go to look for another opening. Nickal jumps to the side, and he wraps his left arm beneath Pickett’s chin and squeezes with an arm-triangle choke. Pickett talks to Nickal the whole time while the submission is being attempted, and Pickett is able to survive the first strong squeeze. Pickett defends with his left arm between the neck and the choke, and Nickal adjusts and fastens it tighter. Pickett stays composed and calm as Nickal keeps squeezing, and Pickett pushes off the hip and stays with it. The wrestler keeps the vice-like grip as tight as can be, and he forces Pickett to finally surrender, thereby boosting his young record to 4-0 with four finishes on his ledger. Nickal has made good on his promotional debut, and the next question will soon be what the UFC does with him next with all the hype surrounding him. The victorious Nickal claims in his post-fight interview that he will be not only the champion, but the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Jamie Pickett R1 2:54 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is certain Bo Nickal will win, stating he will wrestle immediately and finish the fight. He notes that the odds are extremely high and there is no value, but Nickal is the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport. Angelo advises against betting due to the poor odds.

"Bo nickel should win he's the closest thing to a guarantee that you will get in the sport"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling him a next-level wrestler with power and submission ability. He notes Jamie Pickett has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission for Nickal, welcoming him to the UFC.

first round submission
"this is Beau Nickel in the first round first round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance, likely by submission. He thinks Nickal will overwhelm Pickett early and finish him in the first round. He recommends under 1.5 rounds and says Nickal ends up on parlay tickets.

Under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't get out of the first round; Bo Nickal inside the distance
"under one and a half for me flight doesn't get out of the first round Bo nickel inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor is extremely confident Nickal wins, calling it a soft touch. He notes Pickett is a good athlete but easily cowed by superior athletes, with poor body language and a tendency to crumble. He expects Nickal to finish via TKO or submission, though Pickett may avoid submission briefly.

Mentions Nickal by TKO/KO +175 to +225, by submission -165 to -143. Suggests Nickal by finish is likely.
"Bo Nickal is going to beat the pants off Jamie Pickett. All right, done."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Jacob agrees that Bo Nickal will win, but questions whether Nickal will go for a quick takedown or try to show off his striking. He notes that Jamie Pickett folds under pressure and that this matchup was made for a reason. Jacob sees no value in betting on Nickal at these odds.

"this is a bow nickel play all the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal is a decorated wrestler with good submissions. Pickett is on a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job. Nickal will get a takedown and submit him in the first round. Look for early finishing props.

Nickal wins in round 1
"Bo nickel will win this fight any way he wants he will get the takedown he'll be able to wrap up a submission I think he does it within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul agrees Nickal will win easily but notes the odds are too short to bet the moneyline. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced and considers a small sprinkle on the over as a contrarian play, but ultimately expects a quick finish.

Under 1.5 rounds (-300); considers a small sprinkle on the over as a longshot
"I mean it's it's all the entire Market is like bow nickel is going to absolutely kill them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission, likely a rear-naked choke. He criticizes Pickett's lack of quality wins and believes Nickal's wrestling will be too much.

First round submission predicted
"I'm going with bow nickel... I think he's gonna go out there get the takedown and get the sub."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane agrees, calling Pickett a 'gentle giant' who crumbles under pressure. He notes Pickett was submitted by Kyle Daukaus and TKO'd by Jordan Wright, so a finish is probable. He sees no path for Pickett.

"He is the definition of a gentle giant... crumbled faster than Jordan Wright."
Jamie Pickett - Fight History
LOSS vs Eryk Anders
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Eryk Anders 0 23 of 59 38% 83 of 147 5 of 13 38% 0 0 10:08
Jamie Pickett 1 20 of 55 36% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Eryk Anders 0 7 of 19 36% 20 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:42
Jamie Pickett 1 8 of 19 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Eryk Anders 0 10 of 23 43% 33 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:57
Jamie Pickett 0 11 of 24 45% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Eryk Anders 0 6 of 17 35% 30 of 56 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:29
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Eryk Anders 23 of 59 38% 14 of 48 7 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 38 7 of 9 4 of 12
Jamie Pickett 20 of 55 36% 11 of 45 8 of 9 1 of 1 12 of 46 8 of 8 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Eryk Anders 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 8 of 19 42% 3 of 14 4 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 1
2 Eryk Anders 10 of 23 43% 6 of 18 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 16 5 of 6 0 of 1
Jamie Pickett 11 of 24 45% 8 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Eryk Anders 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 11
Jamie Pickett 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Angelo picks Eryk Anders, citing his athleticism, durability, and ability to bully his way to a win. He notes Anders is a large favorite at -330, which is too wide for him, but he expects Anders to win. He suggests there might be value on inside the distance props.

Inside the distance (potential value)
"Eric Anders at minus 330 Eric Anders is a bigger favorite over Jamie picket than Muhammad makv is over Alex bre"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Big Brady picks Anders, calling it a cage-pushing fight. He notes Anders has higher volume, more power, and is physically stronger. He expects Anders to push Pickett against the cage and take him down, similar to his 24-takedown-attempt fight. He predicts a greasy decision win for Anders.

"give me Eric Anders to win this fight win this fight by Greasy greasy decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Cody picks Anders, calling him a gatekeeper who beats lower-level opponents like Pickett. He notes Pickett's terrible output and lack of finishing ability, and that Anders has been competitive with better fighters. Cody believes Anders will win but calls it a bad bet at minus-500, though he admits he'll include Anders in parlays as a degenerate.

"I think he wins and I'm a degenerate and I'll pay minus 500 on him and some stupid parlays but if they lost I got nobody to blame but myself because it's B it's a bad bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Anders should be able to force the action, push Pickett against the cage, and land takedowns. However, Anders is 36 and slowing down, and -400 is not a number to trust with him. The fight is expected to be closely competitive and go to the scorecards, with Anders likely getting his hand raised. The host prefers the over or fight goes to decision.

fight goes to decision
"minus 400 is not a number that I really want to trust Andre with I expect this fight to be closely competitive in certain spots but I think that we see this fight go to the judge's scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Paul picks Anders but is hesitant due to the minus-500 price. He notes Anders has been inconsistent but has faced better competition and has shown improved cardio and output recently. He thinks Pickett is on a losing streak and lacks volume or power. Paul expects Anders to win but acknowledges the price is steep and that Pickett could make it close.

"Eric Anders is uh he's the rightful favorite he should win the fight he wins the fight more often than not but like at minus 500 you got to realize with Anders is he fights with his foot not on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

The MMA Guru initially considered Pickett but decided Anders is the pick. He notes Anders was close with Marc-André Barriault and had a scrap, while Pickett is on a four-fight losing streak and has no impressive wins. He calls Pickett 'awful' and says his wins are unimpressive.

"We're going to go Eric Anders over Jamie Pickett in 2024... Jamie Pickett's awful"
LOSS vs Josh Fremd
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Fremd 0 31 of 80 38% 59 of 109 0 of 3 0% 2 1 7:15
Jamie Pickett 0 14 of 52 26% 26 of 67 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Fremd 0 11 of 29 37% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:31
Jamie Pickett 0 4 of 18 22% 8 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
2 Josh Fremd 0 13 of 31 41% 17 of 35 0 of 1 0% 2 0 1:51
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 15 33% 7 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:39
3 Josh Fremd 0 7 of 20 35% 19 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:53
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 19 26% 11 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Fremd 31 of 80 38% 11 of 49 10 of 18 10 of 13 22 of 64 6 of 11 3 of 5
Jamie Pickett 14 of 52 26% 4 of 31 6 of 16 4 of 5 11 of 45 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Fremd 11 of 29 37% 2 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 7 9 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 4 of 18 22% 0 of 9 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 15 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Josh Fremd 13 of 31 41% 7 of 20 4 of 7 2 of 4 7 of 22 3 of 4 3 of 5
Jamie Pickett 5 of 15 33% 1 of 8 2 of 4 2 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Fremd 7 of 20 35% 2 of 12 3 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 19 26% 3 of 14 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Angelo picks Fremd, citing his improving grappling and athleticism. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy and has poor takedown defense. He expects Fremd to wrestle and grind out a win.

"I think Joss stream WINS"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Big Brady picks Josh Fremd to win by submission in the second round. He believes Fremd has Pickett covered in every aspect, noting Pickett's three-fight skid and poor durability. He mentions Fremd's power and submission game, and says Fremd can win by decision, knockout, or submission. He is not laying -325 but is confident Fremd gets it done.

submission, second round
"I'll say submission for friend but it could be a knockout like Fram you take a look at some of his fights outside the UFC this guy has incredible power"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Cody picks Fremd, citing his wrestling background, cardio, and improvement. He notes Fremd's competitive fight against Fluffy Hernandez and his submission win over Cedric Dumas. He criticizes Pickett's three-fight losing streak and lack of UFC-level skills. He thinks Fremd's wrestling and grappling advantage will be too much, and that Pickett's job is on the line but he doesn't see a path to victory.

"the pick is Josh Brown"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

James picks Fremd but is not confident, calling it a 'bad fight' and not his type. He thinks Fremd should win but notes Pickett is tough, long, and strong in the clinch. He believes the line at -350 is too wide and should be around -250. He likely won't bet it.

"I am picking Fremd here... it's just not my type of fight where I'm gonna be making a big case."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Fremd showed a relentless wrestling style in his last fight, but he is a heavy favorite at -350 against a guy on a three-fight losing streak. Pickett relies on physical traits but is not great technically. Fremd's wrestling and pace should be too much, but trusting him at such a short price is risky given his limited sample size. Fremd should grind out a decision.

Fremd by decision
"my prediction is still going to be Josh friend as I think he grinds this fight out and wins it by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Paul picks Fremd, agreeing that Pickett doesn't belong in the UFC. He notes Fremd's submission skills and ability to get dominant positions. He thinks Fremd will likely win by submission. He considered Pickett at plus money but after digging, concluded Pickett is just not good enough.

Fremd by submission
"friend probably by sub is is how I would see this one shaking out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

The MMA Guru picks Josh Fremd over Jamie Pickett, noting Fremd's losses to Anthony Hernandez (who is doing that to everyone) and Tresean Gore (a nasty guillotine). He believes Fremd is more well-rounded with grappling and striking, and that Pickett tends to fade in fights. He thinks Fremd's potential and size advantage will lead to a win, possibly ending Pickett's UFC career.

"I'm going with Josh friend I'm going with Josh friend"
LOSS vs Bo Nickal
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:54 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1400), Pickett (+850)

Round 1
The main card of UFC 285 begins with the hotly anticipated debut of elite college wrestler Nickal (3-0, 0-0 UFC), who is entering only his fourth pro fight with a combined two minutes and 27 seconds of fight time under his belt not counting his amateur outings. He meets Pickett (13-8, 2-4 UFC), whose last trip to the cage lasted nearly 10 minutes, or nearly twice much time as Nickal’s pro and amateur career combined. Nickal comes in as a nonsensical favorite of -2000 or above in some books, and referee Keith Peterson will be the one to clock them in despite that nonsense. The middleweights do not touch gloves, as they would rather get right to it. Nickal leaps forward, jumps in the air with a kick that misses, and he hits the floor. Nickal shoots for a takedown, and Pickett stuffs it on the first try. Nickal shoves him against the wall and knees him a few times, and Pickett grimaces from an apparent knee to the groin. The foul uncalled, Nickal throws his man to his knees, and searches for a possible brabo choke, only to release it to circle around and take the back. Nickal grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and he changes it to a neck crank but lets it go to look for another opening. Nickal jumps to the side, and he wraps his left arm beneath Pickett’s chin and squeezes with an arm-triangle choke. Pickett talks to Nickal the whole time while the submission is being attempted, and Pickett is able to survive the first strong squeeze. Pickett defends with his left arm between the neck and the choke, and Nickal adjusts and fastens it tighter. Pickett stays composed and calm as Nickal keeps squeezing, and Pickett pushes off the hip and stays with it. The wrestler keeps the vice-like grip as tight as can be, and he forces Pickett to finally surrender, thereby boosting his young record to 4-0 with four finishes on his ledger. Nickal has made good on his promotional debut, and the next question will soon be what the UFC does with him next with all the hype surrounding him. The victorious Nickal claims in his post-fight interview that he will be not only the champion, but the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Jamie Pickett R1 2:54 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is certain Bo Nickal will win, stating he will wrestle immediately and finish the fight. He notes that the odds are extremely high and there is no value, but Nickal is the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport. Angelo advises against betting due to the poor odds.

"Bo nickel should win he's the closest thing to a guarantee that you will get in the sport"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling him a next-level wrestler with power and submission ability. He notes Jamie Pickett has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission for Nickal, welcoming him to the UFC.

first round submission
"this is Beau Nickel in the first round first round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance, likely by submission. He thinks Nickal will overwhelm Pickett early and finish him in the first round. He recommends under 1.5 rounds and says Nickal ends up on parlay tickets.

Under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't get out of the first round; Bo Nickal inside the distance
"under one and a half for me flight doesn't get out of the first round Bo nickel inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor is extremely confident Nickal wins, calling it a soft touch. He notes Pickett is a good athlete but easily cowed by superior athletes, with poor body language and a tendency to crumble. He expects Nickal to finish via TKO or submission, though Pickett may avoid submission briefly.

Mentions Nickal by TKO/KO +175 to +225, by submission -165 to -143. Suggests Nickal by finish is likely.
"Bo Nickal is going to beat the pants off Jamie Pickett. All right, done."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Jacob agrees that Bo Nickal will win, but questions whether Nickal will go for a quick takedown or try to show off his striking. He notes that Jamie Pickett folds under pressure and that this matchup was made for a reason. Jacob sees no value in betting on Nickal at these odds.

"this is a bow nickel play all the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal is a decorated wrestler with good submissions. Pickett is on a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job. Nickal will get a takedown and submit him in the first round. Look for early finishing props.

Nickal wins in round 1
"Bo nickel will win this fight any way he wants he will get the takedown he'll be able to wrap up a submission I think he does it within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul agrees Nickal will win easily but notes the odds are too short to bet the moneyline. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced and considers a small sprinkle on the over as a contrarian play, but ultimately expects a quick finish.

Under 1.5 rounds (-300); considers a small sprinkle on the over as a longshot
"I mean it's it's all the entire Market is like bow nickel is going to absolutely kill them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission, likely a rear-naked choke. He criticizes Pickett's lack of quality wins and believes Nickal's wrestling will be too much.

First round submission predicted
"I'm going with bow nickel... I think he's gonna go out there get the takedown and get the sub."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane agrees, calling Pickett a 'gentle giant' who crumbles under pressure. He notes Pickett was submitted by Kyle Daukaus and TKO'd by Jordan Wright, so a finish is probable. He sees no path for Pickett.

"He is the definition of a gentle giant... crumbled faster than Jordan Wright."
LOSS vs Denis Tiuliulin
TKO (knee and punches) R2 4:52 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denis Tiuliulin 2 73 of 161 45% 87 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Jamie Pickett 0 60 of 111 54% 63 of 114 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denis Tiuliulin 0 22 of 76 28% 28 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jamie Pickett 0 35 of 60 58% 37 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Denis Tiuliulin 2 51 of 85 60% 59 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Jamie Pickett 0 25 of 51 49% 26 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denis Tiuliulin 73 of 161 45% 53 of 131 19 of 28 1 of 2 52 of 133 15 of 15 6 of 13
Jamie Pickett 60 of 111 54% 44 of 90 13 of 18 3 of 3 56 of 103 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denis Tiuliulin 22 of 76 28% 16 of 64 5 of 11 1 of 1 22 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 35 of 60 58% 23 of 46 10 of 12 2 of 2 33 of 57 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Denis Tiuliulin 51 of 85 60% 37 of 67 14 of 17 0 of 1 30 of 57 15 of 15 6 of 13
Jamie Pickett 25 of 51 49% 21 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1 23 of 46 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his takedowns and ability to win via grappling. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy, while Tiuliulin is a brawler with power. He thinks if Pickett manages range and uses takedowns, he can win, but it's a low-confidence pick.

"I'm gonna lean Pickett because he does have eight takedowns in the UFC and he is an okay striker and these low volume guys are super frustrating but if Jamie gets it to the ground I think it's a clear …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Big Brady picks Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, criticizing Jamie Pickett for being inactive and fighting not to lose. He was impressed by Tiuliulin's debut against a tough prospect and believes Tiuliulin can stuff takedowns and land a big shot. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he expects the fight to be terrible overall.

first round knockout
"I'm actually going to pick Dennis here as a dog to go out there and knock out Jamie Pickett."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Cody leans towards Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, noting that Jamie Pickett is not a great wrestler and that Tiuliulin has power and durability. He mentions that Pickett's takedown defense is not elite and that Tiuliulin can hold his own on the feet. He is not betting it but picks Tiuliulin for the show.

Pickett under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"leaning towards the dogs with dennis chi lulin for me not betting it though"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Daniel Levi picks Denis Tiuliulin for the upset. He notes Tiuliulin's knockout power and long striking, while Pickett has been finished before. He acknowledges Pickett's physical advantages and takedown ability, but believes if Tiuliulin can avoid being taken down, he can light up Pickett on the feet. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I'm gonna go out on a limb here i'm gonna take a dennis chaluan for the upset."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Jacob strongly disagrees, picking Denis Tiuliulin. He thinks Pickett does not belong in the UFC, is gun-shy, and has telegraphed takedowns. He praises Tiuliulin's striking, power, and toughness, noting he landed clean shots against a dominant wrestler on short notice. He believes Tiuliulin will march forward and find a finish.

has bets on Tiuliulin for premium members
"I'm the knee all the way man if you're a premium member I got bets you better become a premium member."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jamie Pickett

The host leans Jamie Pickett but can't back him at -130. He expects Pickett to use his physical attributes to overpower Tiuliulin in the clinch and grind out a decision. He notes Tiuliulin's power but thinks Pickett's durability and bullying style will prevail.

over 2.5 rounds (-140)
"I think Jamie just grinds him out and wins this fight by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Paul leans towards Jamie Pickett, noting that Tiuliulin has poor takedown defense and cardio, which are Pickett's strengths. He believes Pickett will use his wrestling to lean on Tiuliulin and tire him out. However, he is not confident and says it's a dog or pass fight.

"i would have to lean towards pickett even though he's a slight favorite you could just chalk this one up to a dog or pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Denis Tiuliulin

The MMA Guru picks Denis Tiuliulin to win by TKO in the first round. He describes both fighters playing at range early, with Tiuliulin looking for body kicks. Pickett will time punches when Tiuliulin kicks, but as he rushes in, Tiuliulin lands a big shot over the top, rocks Pickett, and finishes with body shots and big shots against the cage.

TKO in the first round
"I'm gonna go with Dennis Chilean by TKO in the first round"
LOSS vs Kyle Daukaus
Submission (D'Arce choke) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett

Round 1
Receiving an upgrade to the co-main event slot, Daukaus (10-2, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) and Pickett (13-6, 2-2 UFC) will handle their business at a pre-planned 195-pound catchweight due to the latter taking the fight on short notice. This fun stylistic clash will draw officiating from referee Herb Dean, and the fighters gladly touch gloves as they are happy to be fighting tonight. Pickett strikes first with few low kicks, and Daukaus replies in kind. Right after Daukaus wings a right hand, he changes levels to go after a takedown. Although Pickett stays upright on the first attempt, Daukaus sucks his legs out beneath him and drags him down. From his back, “The Nightwolf” holds on to a guillotine choke, and Daukaus wisely comes around with his own shoulder to set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Pickett lets go of his arm grip so that he does not himself get submitted, and instead sits up and turns on his hip to try to stand back up. Daukaus keeps his man trapped beneath him, smacking him in the face with a few right hands, but Pickett explodes out of the position and powers back to his feet. Pickett tries to let his hands go when he gets upright, only to find Daukaus right on him to go hunting for a single. The Philadelphia native successfully lifts Pickett’s leg all the way up in the air before slamming him to the mat, and he is quick to secure half guard. When Pickett sits up and turns like before, Daukaus times this to try to take his back. Pickett simply stands up from this position, and he shucks Daukaus off of his back. Daukaus does not let up, remaining tied to Pickett until he lets go of his own accord. Out of nowhere, Daukaus drills Pickett with a few punches square on the chin, and when Pickett is shaken up, Daukaus leaps forward to snag another takedown.
Pickett falls to his back, and when he rolls to his side, Daukaus quickly attacks with a sneaky brabo choke from a difficult angle. In half guard, Daukaus keeps the choke snaked around Pickett’s neck and it is tight. With no way to get out, Pickett wriggles his arm free so that he can tap out on Daukaus’ side barely one second before the horn blares.
There is a bit of confusion as to the timing of the stoppage, or whether Pickett reached the end of the round, but it appears that he tapped out just before the bell. What a way to win a fight!

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Jamie Pickett R1 4:59 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his recent performance against Joseph Holmes where he showed volume and mixed in takedowns. He notes that if Pickett fights aggressively and uses takedowns, he beats Daukaus almost every time. However, he acknowledges Pickett's gun-shy tendencies could be a problem.

"i'm gonna do a slight lean to jamie pickett because we just saw that version of him three weeks ago"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting Pickett has low output and has been outgrappled by lesser fighters. He believes Daukaus has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a submission in the first or second round.

win by submission in first or second round
"give me tylenol dawkis to submit jamie pickett I'll say in that first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Kyle Daukaus, citing his well-rounded skill set and superior grappling. He notes that Daukaus has shown good moments in his UFC fights, including a strong performance against Kevin Holland that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental headbutt. Cody believes Daukaus will have faster hand speed and should be able to take the fight to the mat, where he has a sizable advantage. He also mentions that Jamie Pickett's game is not well-rounded and relies on smothering opponents against the cage.

"yeah much of the same the only thing that could maybe cause for concern is if jamie pickett just spam clinches up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Levi leans toward Daukaus but thinks the line is too wide, suggesting it should be around -175. He acknowledges Pickett's momentum and confidence from two wins, but notes Pickett's wins were over lower-level opponents. Levi expects Daukaus to win a close decision, possibly an ugly fight, and mentions Daukaus should finish but might not.

line should be -175 to -165; Daukaus by close decision
"i slightly lean them but not by that much i think it's a dog or pass situation but i'll take darkest by a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus is better everywhere: clinch, grappling, and developing striking. Pickett has physical tools but lacks output and fight IQ. Daukaus should control the fight with takedowns and either submit or decision Pickett. The sub/decision combo at -165 is a great line. A knockout is unlikely, so the method is between submission and decision.

Daukaus by sub or decision (-165), Daukaus by decision (+120)
"fanduel has done buckets by sub or decision at -165 and i think that's a hell of a line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting that Pickett is low-volume and doesn't use his long reach well. He thinks Daukaus's path to victory is to take the fight to the mat, where he should have a clear advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pickett could spam clinches, but overall he sees Daukaus as a rightful favorite at -250.

"i think the real path to victory here for kyle dawkis is take this fight to the mat where he should have a sizable advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by 29-28 decision in a clinch-heavy fight. He believes Daukaus has better technique on the feet and superior jiu-jitsu, and can neutralize Pickett's cage-grappling game. He notes Daukaus has a good chin and has never been finished as a pro, so Pickett's power is less of a threat. He expects a boring clinch fest with Daukaus edging out the rounds.

decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with kyle dawkis here over jamie pickett ... i think he's going to be able to sort of neutralize the cage holding game of jamie picker"
WIN vs Joseph Holmes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Pickett 0 50 of 122 40% 54 of 126 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:02
Joseph Holmes 0 51 of 93 54% 59 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Pickett 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Joseph Holmes 0 24 of 35 68% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
2 Jamie Pickett 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Joseph Holmes 0 13 of 27 48% 18 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
3 Jamie Pickett 0 17 of 44 38% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Joseph Holmes 0 14 of 31 45% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Pickett 50 of 122 40% 22 of 86 19 of 24 9 of 12 40 of 108 10 of 14 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 51 of 93 54% 30 of 65 13 of 19 8 of 9 41 of 82 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Pickett 10 of 23 43% 4 of 15 3 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 24 of 35 68% 13 of 21 7 of 9 4 of 5 17 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Jamie Pickett 23 of 55 41% 12 of 42 9 of 10 2 of 3 18 of 50 5 of 5 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 13 of 27 48% 9 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Pickett 17 of 44 38% 6 of 29 7 of 11 4 of 4 13 of 36 4 of 8 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 14 of 31 45% 8 of 22 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Pickett due to UFC experience, but worries about Holmes' equal size and grappling threat. He notes Pickett's reach advantage is neutralized and that both can be gun-shy. He calls it a razor-thin pick and says he won't bet on it.

Not throwing any money at this fight; too close to call.
"i am leaning towards pickett because of the experience but i do worry that joseph holmes is a genuine athlete"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Big Brady thinks the odds are off, as Joseph Holmes is inexperienced and has fought low-level competition, while Jamie Pickett has faced UFC-caliber fighters. He calls it a coin flip and says he would not bet it, but if forced to pick, he takes Pickett as a dog by decision. He notes both fighters have similar skill sets and low volume.

"i'm going to pick jamie pickett i'm going to pick him by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Cody leans toward Holmes, citing his length and reach advantage. He notes Holmes's camp (James Krause) will have a good game plan. He expects Holmes to use his range striking and avoid grappling. However, he admits Holmes looked green and the fight could go either way.

"i would say holmes fight probably over one and a half over two and a half figures of distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Daniel Levi leans toward Joseph Holmes, citing his physical advantages (6'4", 80-inch reach) and finishing ability (submission and KO). He notes that Pickett has folded under pressure in the past, losing by first-round finishes to Charles Byrd and Jordan Wright. Levi is hesitant because Holmes hasn't been tested at UFC level, but he believes Holmes will outwork Pickett in a close fight. He also mentions Pickett's mental struggles and that he's seeing a therapist.

"i'm going to go with joseph holmes here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The host leans toward Joseph Holmes, expecting him to dictate the pace with clinch work and takedowns against the cage. He notes Pickett's durability but thinks Holmes' aggression and control will win rounds. The host is not confident in a finish, predicting a decision. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a possible bet due to both fighters' low finishing rates.

Over 1.5 rounds at -185 mentioned as a possible bet.
"i'm gonna be going joseph holmes and i'm actually gonna take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Paul leans toward Pickett as an underdog, citing his experience and durability. He notes Holmes is very green and his striking is telegraphed. He expects Pickett's strength in the clinch to be a factor. However, he acknowledges Holmes's length and potential if he keeps the fight at range.

"i'm leaning towards pickett here as an underdog uh plus 120 is the price to pay just more way more experience"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Holmes' Muay Thai background, range, power, and accuracy on the feet, and notes that Holmes already beat Pickett on the regional scene by first-round destruction. He doesn't see Pickett's grappling as a threat, as Holmes is rangier and better at controlling distance. He expects Holmes to land a clean shot early and finish the fight quickly, similar to how Jordan Wright did.

"i'm gonna trust in joseph holmes to beat jamie picker here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Pickett 0 47 of 96 48% 58 of 108 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Laureano Staropoli 0 25 of 62 40% 43 of 80 1 of 9 11% 0 0 5:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Pickett 0 10 of 18 55% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Laureano Staropoli 0 4 of 7 57% 7 of 10 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:00
2 Jamie Pickett 0 18 of 35 51% 26 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Laureano Staropoli 0 11 of 21 52% 18 of 28 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:13
3 Jamie Pickett 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Laureano Staropoli 0 10 of 34 29% 18 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Pickett 47 of 96 48% 23 of 64 23 of 30 1 of 2 26 of 72 21 of 23 0 of 1
Laureano Staropoli 25 of 62 40% 14 of 48 8 of 11 3 of 3 19 of 54 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Pickett 10 of 18 55% 2 of 7 7 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 10 8 of 8 0 of 0
Laureano Staropoli 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jamie Pickett 18 of 35 51% 9 of 22 9 of 12 0 of 1 11 of 26 7 of 8 0 of 1
Laureano Staropoli 11 of 21 52% 6 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jamie Pickett 19 of 43 44% 12 of 35 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
Laureano Staropoli 10 of 34 29% 6 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo is surprised Pickett is such a big underdog. He notes Pickett has a foot reach advantage and manages range well, and can mix in takedowns. He thinks Staropoli gets gun shy and is hit twice as much as he hits. He already grabbed a +3.5 bet on Pickett, meaning he only needs Pickett to win one round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight (over 73.5 combined strikes).

grabbed a +3.5 bet on Pickett at +115; likes more/more on monkey knife fight
"i am surprised that jamie pickett is such a big underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Big Brady picks Staropoli as the more talented fighter despite a three-fight skid, noting his losses came against tough competition. He worries about Staropoli's size disadvantage and Pickett's 8.5-inch reach advantage, but believes Staropoli's skill edge will carry him to a close decision. He advises against betting this fight.

no bet recommended
"i got to go star upholding i think he is the better fighter"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Cody picks Laureano Staropoli, citing his volume, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Pickett has poor striking defense, moves backward, and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Cody believes Staropoli will win the numbers battle and likely take a decision, though he acknowledges the price is high. He sees Staropoli as a lower-tier parlay piece.

Fight goes 15; decision
"i got lyra on a star pulley and this is just another case of do you want to pay by his 250 for leonardo sterpoli"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Lock leans Staropoli based on competition level. He notes Pickett is not UFC level and Staropoli has fought better opponents. He expects Staropoli to win by decision but is not confident enough to bet heavily.

Staropoli by decision +110, over 2.5 rounds -230
"i am on the star police side because i'm just not that high on picket at all"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

Paul leans towards Staropoli, noting that Pickett's best attribute was his durability, but that was shattered in his last fight. He agrees with Cody that Staropoli's forward pressure and volume should win the fight. However, Paul is not fully confident due to the price.

"that makes all the sense in the world and pickett's best thing what used to be his durability but that's kind of yeah i know"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Laureano Staropoli

The MMA Guru picks Laureano Staropoli, noting that Staropoli is moving up to middleweight but is naturally a welterweight, which he believes makes him better than most middleweights. He points out that Jamie Pickett is coming off a KO loss and lacks quality wins, while Staropoli has faced tougher competition and is more technically sound. He predicts Staropoli will out-grapple Pickett and win by unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with loreanos tripoli here i think it's a good pick i think he's way more technically sound than jamie picker and i can see him actually out grappling jamie pickett throughout this fight"
LOSS vs Jordan Wright
TKO (punches) R1 1:04 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Wright 1 26 of 32 81% 33 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Jamie Pickett 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Wright 1 26 of 32 81% 33 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Jamie Pickett 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Wright 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 6 12 of 12 9 of 14
Jamie Pickett 4 of 5 80% 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Wright 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 6 12 of 12 9 of 14
Jamie Pickett 4 of 5 80% 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Pickett is durable, never knocked out, and has a solid chin. Wright has terrible striking defense (40%), no chin, and has never been to decision. Pickett can pressure forward, land hard shots, and has good wrestling. I expect Pickett to finish Wright in the second round by knockout.

by KO round 2
"I'm going to take pika here for the win i'm going to take in a win by a second round knockout for pickett"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Daniel Levi picks Jamie Pickett, citing his physicality, speed, and strength advantage. He notes that Jordan Wright (Beverly Hills Ninja) has a suspect chin, as seen in the Anthony Hernandez fight, and was steamrolled by Joaquin Buckley. Levi thinks Pickett can knock out Wright or win by decision, and calls this Pickett's best chance to get a UFC win.

mentions Wright's chin and Pickett's durability
"i'm going with jamie pickett to knock out the beverly hills ninja"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

The host picks Pickett but wants no part of betting the fight. He notes Pickett has shown durability, eating big shots from Soriano and Chukwu, while Wright has a questionable chin. He thinks Pickett lands a big shot and finishes Wright in the second round. However, he acknowledges both fighters are low level and that Wright could win if he lands early.

Pickett by KO in round 2
"i'll ultimately go with the guy who's been showing uh solid durability as of late and jamie pickett and i'll take him to this fight by second round ko but i want no part of this fight in terms of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Pickett to win by TKO in round 2. He notes that Jordan Wright has spectacular finishes but against weak competition, and that Wright slows down after the first round. He believes Pickett can absorb Wright's early onslaught, as shown in his fight with Pannie Soriano, and then finish Wright late in the second round against the cage.

Pickett wins by TKO in round 2
"i'm picking jamie pickett to get the tko in round two"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is certain Bo Nickal will win, stating he will wrestle immediately and finish the fight. He notes that the odds are extremely high and there is no value, but Nickal is the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport. Angelo advises against betting due to the poor odds.

"Bo nickel should win he's the closest thing to a guarantee that you will get in the sport"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling him a next-level wrestler with power and submission ability. He notes Jamie Pickett has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission for Nickal, welcoming him to the UFC.

first round submission
"this is Beau Nickel in the first round first round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance, likely by submission. He thinks Nickal will overwhelm Pickett early and finish him in the first round. He recommends under 1.5 rounds and says Nickal ends up on parlay tickets.

Under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't get out of the first round; Bo Nickal inside the distance
"under one and a half for me flight doesn't get out of the first round Bo nickel inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor is extremely confident Nickal wins, calling it a soft touch. He notes Pickett is a good athlete but easily cowed by superior athletes, with poor body language and a tendency to crumble. He expects Nickal to finish via TKO or submission, though Pickett may avoid submission briefly.

Mentions Nickal by TKO/KO +175 to +225, by submission -165 to -143. Suggests Nickal by finish is likely.
"Bo Nickal is going to beat the pants off Jamie Pickett. All right, done."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Jacob agrees that Bo Nickal will win, but questions whether Nickal will go for a quick takedown or try to show off his striking. He notes that Jamie Pickett folds under pressure and that this matchup was made for a reason. Jacob sees no value in betting on Nickal at these odds.

"this is a bow nickel play all the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal is a decorated wrestler with good submissions. Pickett is on a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job. Nickal will get a takedown and submit him in the first round. Look for early finishing props.

Nickal wins in round 1
"Bo nickel will win this fight any way he wants he will get the takedown he'll be able to wrap up a submission I think he does it within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul agrees Nickal will win easily but notes the odds are too short to bet the moneyline. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced and considers a small sprinkle on the over as a contrarian play, but ultimately expects a quick finish.

Under 1.5 rounds (-300); considers a small sprinkle on the over as a longshot
"I mean it's it's all the entire Market is like bow nickel is going to absolutely kill them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission, likely a rear-naked choke. He criticizes Pickett's lack of quality wins and believes Nickal's wrestling will be too much.

First round submission predicted
"I'm going with bow nickel... I think he's gonna go out there get the takedown and get the sub."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane agrees, calling Pickett a 'gentle giant' who crumbles under pressure. He notes Pickett was submitted by Kyle Daukaus and TKO'd by Jordan Wright, so a finish is probable. He sees no path for Pickett.

"He is the definition of a gentle giant... crumbled faster than Jordan Wright."