UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023 · Catchweight (175 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Shavkat Rakhmonov
3.25 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
2.17 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.4 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Geoff Neal
5.02 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.5 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.54 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Moneyline
BetWay -450
KO/TKO
BetRivers +260
Submission
FanDuel +190
Decision
FanDuel +300
Geoff Neal
Moneyline
FanDuel +420
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
FanDuel +2800
Decision
BetMGM +900
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 37 of 67 55% 65 of 102 2 of 10 20% 0 1 11:41
Ian Machado Garry 0 42 of 84 50% 102 of 157 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 2 of 5 40% 13 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:20
Ian Machado Garry 0 3 of 4 75% 14 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
Ian Machado Garry 0 10 of 24 41% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Ian Machado Garry 0 14 of 34 41% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 14 of 22 63% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:55
Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 16 68% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:44
Ian Machado Garry 0 4 of 6 66% 38 of 46 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 37 of 67 55% 29 of 55 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 50 3 of 4 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 42 of 84 50% 11 of 40 10 of 15 21 of 29 35 of 72 7 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 9 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 10 of 24 41% 2 of 12 2 of 3 6 of 9 8 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 19 57% 7 of 14 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 14 of 34 41% 4 of 16 3 of 7 7 of 11 14 of 31 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 14 of 22 63% 11 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 11 of 16 68% 2 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but is nervous. He notes Shavkat has more ways to win (KO, submission) and is dangerous everywhere, but his takedowns are not great (1 for 5 against Wonderboy) and he hasn't fought meaningful time. Ian Garry accepted this fight on short notice, which suggests he knows something. Angelo is leaning Shavkat but may just watch and enjoy.

Minus 350, might just watch and enjoy
"I'm going to pick shavkat rakman off but I'm a little nervous here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and wins over tough opponents. He notes Rakhmonov's takedown accuracy is low but he finds the neck when needed. He has concerns about Rakhmonov's striking lulls and Garry's potential in a kickboxing match, but still favors Rakhmonov.

"I'm going to take Shavkat to get the job done and hand Ian Garry his first career loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor believes Shavkat's clinch game and pressure will be decisive. He notes that Shavkat has terrible striking defense but is durable and confident, and that his ability to get into the clinch and break opponents down is reminiscent of Khabib. Connor thinks Garry will have success at range early but will eventually give ground and get caught in clinches, leading to a finish. He also mentions the training partner dynamic, where Shavkat got the better of Garry on the ground.

Shavkat opened at -238, currently -372; Garry opened at +204, currently +304. Connor thinks the line is too wide but still favors Shavkat.
"I am inclined to take Shavkat. Even if I think Gary is going to show up some of his striking."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel believes Rakhmonov's clinch work and physicality will be too much for Garry. He notes Garry's vulnerability after being dropped by Keenan Song and questions his vegan diet's effect on muscle mass. He expects Rakhmonov to close distance methodically and hand Garry his first loss.

"I'm gonna go Shaftcat Rammon up to come out here, hand Ian Gary his first ever loss."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing that the Michael Venom Page fight showed the ceiling of Ian Garry's striking. He argues that Garry's grappling ace won't work against Rakhmonov, who has superior wrestling and submission skills. Vreeland notes Rakhmonov's striking is good enough to hang with Garry, and his finishing upside is all on his side, especially in a five-round fight where it gets worse for Garry.

"yeah and I'm still going Rockman off uh for me you know you watch that and Gary fight with Mich zenom page and it was like okay there's the ceiling on Machado Gary striking right and and we kind of …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox agrees with Rakhmonov, noting that the MVP fight was not encouraging for Garry and that this is a massive step up. He questions Garry's path to victory, suggesting a decision is possible but would mean 15 minutes of danger. Fox points out that the finishing upside is all on Rakhmonov, especially in a five-round fight, making it even worse for Garry.

"no there's no real holes at least he hasn't shown any holes yet uh sha cut hasn't not that Gary is is looked bad but yeah that mvp fight was not encouraging um it's it's a big step up from …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He believes Garry's slick striking, body work, and BJJ will be enough to outpoint Rakhmonov. He notes Garry's durability is underrated and that the former sparring partner dynamic adds volatility. He trusts Garry's cardio and toughness to persevere.

"I actually think Ian Gary is going to win this fight... I'm picking Ian Gary outright in this one boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Although the line is wide in favor of Rakhmonov, Gary could provide resistance with his technical striking and walk Rakhmonov into some shots. However, the ultimate difference maker will be Rakhmonov's aggressiveness, which will wear down Gary and lead to a finish within rounds three or four.

finish within rounds 3-4
"I do believe the ultimate differen maker is going to be the aggressiveness on Rock manov which event eventually wears down Gary and leads to a finish for rock manov within rounds three or four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, emphasizing his finishing ability and superior competition. He criticizes Garry's hype and close fights, noting his takedown defense and cardio concerns. He thinks Rakhmonov's grappling will be the difference, but acknowledges the line is too heavy to bet heavily.

"Rakhmonov is going to take him down... I think Rakhmonov wins this fight wide."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat, but acknowledges Ian Garry's solid chance. He thinks Garry will be winning early, but Shavkat will crack him in the third or fourth round, leading to a momentum shift. He notes Garry is more likely to break (leg, hand, body shot) and that Shavkat's pressure and clinch work will be decisive. He predicts a TKO win against the cage in the late third or fourth round.

Shavkat wins by TKO in round 3 or 4
"I got shavkat but hear me out Ian Gary's got a solid chance here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees with Connor, highlighting Shavkat's clinch expertise and Garry's tendency to back up under pressure. He notes that Garry's risk aversion and lack of elite athleticism will be exposed, and that Shavkat's finishing ability will likely lead to a stoppage. Zane also points out that Garry's recent performances have been lackluster and that he struggles when pressured.

"I think Shavkat's going to be champ here very, very soon."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:56 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 28 of 36 77% 73 of 88 1 of 5 20% 2 0 7:45
Stephen Thompson 0 16 of 25 64% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 12 of 20 60% 25 of 34 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:25
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 14 71% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 16 of 16 100% 48 of 54 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:20
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 11 54% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 28 of 36 77% 24 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 8 10 of 15 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 16 of 25 64% 6 of 15 7 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 12 of 20 60% 9 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 9 of 14 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 14 71% 3 of 7 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 16 of 16 100% 15 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.

Anti-40 parlay leg; finish expected
"shavkat is going to be the pick... shavkat is in that anti-40 parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.

"give me shovot to win this fight by second round TKO vicious grounded pound TKO incoming"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.

"shavkat is the pick I have no intention of betting that fight though"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.

"shavkat is the pick here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.

"rachmanov is our pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.

Inside the distance finish.
"I think Shavkat is going to run through him... Stephen Thompson's gonna get finished inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.

Rakhmonov inside the distance
"shavat Rak manov probably more dangerous than those guys when he's able to get them to the ground and I think that will see Rock manov get him to the ground pretty easily here get that dominant position I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.

"I think shavkat will have the takedowns I think the time to fade shavkat is coming as he's going to break into this top five"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.

Shavkat by submission (arm triangle) in round 2
"shavkat rachmanov arm triangle it's sad but that's what I see happening here... I'm going to go with shavkat getting an arm triangle working his way through after getting half Guard from an outside trip up against the cage"
WIN vs Geoff Neal
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Neil Magny
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:58 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 19 of 36 52% 56 of 79 2 of 2 100% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 7 of 10 70% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 12 of 20 60% 27 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 4 of 12 33% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 7 of 16 43% 29 of 41 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 22 50% 6 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 6
Neil Magny 19 of 36 52% 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 7 of 10 70% 4 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
Neil Magny 12 of 20 60% 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 19
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 1
Neil Magny 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills. He expects Rakhmonov to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win, similar to how Michael Chiesa took Magny down four times. He believes Magny's recent performances against Max Griffin and Jeff Neal show vulnerability.

"i like shaft cat to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win shove cat rachmanoff is my pick and i'm pretty confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round knockout. He is very confident, citing Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (8 KO, 7 sub), power in hands and kicks, and underrated submission game. He notes Magny's poor chin (dropped often, finished 6 times) and that he was dropped by Max Griffin. He sees Magny's only path as holding Rakhmonov against the cage, but doubts judges will score that. He expects Rakhmonov to hurt and finish Magny early.

Rakhmonov wins by KO in round 1
"i think he hurts magne bad i think he finished him in the very first round and i think he does it by knockout so give me shove rock banav"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is sold on Rakhmonov as a finisher with excellent submission game and power. He notes Magni hasn't been finished in a while but thinks Rakhmonov's precision and finishing ability will get the job done. He recommends Rakhmonov inside the distance at -135.

Rakhmonov inside the distance -135 at DraftKings
"i think if you're gonna play this line rachmaninov 15 wins 15 finishes minus 135 at draftkings sportsbook i think that's the play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Magni's recent performance against Max Griffin was poor and age may be catching up. He thinks Rakhmonov is precise and fights long, and he leans towards inside the distance by knockout.

"i would lean towards inside the distance by knockout yeah"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that Max Griffin dropped Neil Magny and almost won, and Rakhmonov is much better than Griffin. He believes Rakhmonov will finish Magny in the first round, possibly by submission (d'arce choke). He cites Magny's history of losing to top competition and his inability to outgrapple Rakhmonov.

first round finish prediction, d'arce choke
"i am going to go with chavcat rachmanov over neil magna"
KO (spinning hook kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlston Harris vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

Round 1
It’s a welterweight rumble on the docket now between two surging prospects each looking for their third win in as many tries when Rakhmonov (14-0, 2-0 UFC) takes on Harris (17-4, 2-0 UFC). This classic battle of Kazakhstan vs. Guyana will draw the attention of referee Mike Beltran, although the tensions are not high as they show respect with a touch of gloves. The center of the cage immediately belongs to Rakhmonov, who swats away a punch to the body as he slowly advances. Harris kicks the body and swipes out with a left as Rakhmonov comes towards him, and Harris whiffs on a big right hand as well. Harris has a left hand bounce off the cheek, only to walk into a one-two that makes him bend over. Harris fires back with a strike to the body, as he lunges in with a few right hands to the torso. Rakhmonov’s volume is low, as the Kazakh picks his shots from range. Rakhmonov catches a swinging Harris with a right hand, and Harris recklessly attacks and gets kicked hard to the body with a spinning kick. Rakhmonov races ahead, sensing he might have hurt “Mocambique,” and he lands a body shot before Harris grabs hold of him. They dance back and forth in pursuit of takedowns from each man, and Rakhmonov pushes him hard against the fence before lifting Harris in the air. Harris manages to keep his balance as Rakhmonov lifts him up, sets him down and picks him up again to elevate and drop. The Guyana native turns Rakhmonov to the fence, and he starts stomping on toes in an old-school manner. While Harris thwarts one trip attempt, the second succeeds, and Rakhmonov drops his foe right on his head. Harris keeps moving, scrambling well enough to get back to his feet without issue.
In the blink of an eye, Rakhmonov spins with a hook kick to the head, and the heel smashes into the side of Harris’ dome. Harris topples to the mat, and Rakhmonov leaps down to hunt for a finish. Harris throws his legs up to try to keep Rakhmonov off of him, but Rakhmonov tosses them aside and drops down hammers in the form of punches. “Nomad” blasts Harris a couple times with long standing-to-ground punches until Harris’ consciousness is stripped away, and Beltran is quick to notice this and halt the fight.
That’s 15 wins in 15 tries for Rakhmonov, with all 15 ending inside the distance. As he makes the sign to the crowd for dollar bills, he also signals to the UFC that he is a serious contender on the rise at 170 pounds.

The Official Result
Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Carlston Harris R1 4:10 via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.

Odds comment: Rakhmonov is a 3-to-1 favorite, but Angelo thinks it's closer. Suggests betting on the fight to go to decision.
"rachmaninov is the pick don't let the odds fool you it's not the lock that they think it is"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.

"i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.

"the pick is shaft cat but all respect to carlson i enjoy watching him fight too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.

over 1.5 rounds -140, Rakhmonov inside the distance +100, Rakhmonov in round 3 +1000
"i think shabcat's grappling is legit i think it's good his jiu jitsu is good"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.

"as of now i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris as an upset, calling it an 'evens matchup' despite wide odds. He notes Harris has beaten a Dagestani phenom before (Sajid Izakanev) and is more explosive. He predicts a second-round TKO, with Harris cracking Rakhmonov on the chin and finishing with ground strikes. He criticizes Rakhmonov's previous competition as weak.

TKO, round 2, upset pick, odds comment (should be evens)
"i'm going to go with carlston harris over shafkat rachmanov and i think it's an absolute disaster that this fight is so far apart in odds i think this is an evens matchup"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 21 of 35 60% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:25
Michel Prazeres 0 6 of 14 42% 32 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 10 of 17 58% 46 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:23
Michel Prazeres 0 5 of 10 50% 31 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 18 61% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:02
Michel Prazeres 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 21 of 35 60% 15 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 1 10 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 11
Michel Prazeres 6 of 14 42% 1 of 6 0 of 2 5 of 6 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 10 of 17 58% 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
Michel Prazeres 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 18 61% 9 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Michel Prazeres 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.

over on rounds
"i think rachmanoff can win anywhere and and basically will win anywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.

by KO, third round
"i'm going to say rock band wins by third round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.

"i would have to go again with another favorite chavez mount rockmon who i was high coming into the ufc cash that ticket at a good odds in my opinion over cowboy oliveira"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.

"i'm gonna take a line out of your uh playbook because you always say when one fighter just has more ways to win than the other fighter i think that's exactly what this is with rakhmanov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.

Rakhmonov by decision
"I like rachmaninov here i think he wins by decision but i'm not running home yet to uh throw him into all my parleys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.

"rachmanoff i i didn't think that his his debut was all that impressive but i think it's onwards and upwards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.

first round guillotine choke
"i'm gonna pick him to win by guillotine again"
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:40 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"
Geoff Neal - Fight History
LOSS vs Uroš Medić
KO R1 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.

"Geoff Neal's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.

Geoff Neal by first-round knockout
"I think Geoff Neal's going to hit Medich very hard and I'm just not sure Medich is going to be able to take it. I got to go Geoff Neal here to win and I'm going to take Geoff Neal …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"Neil's the pick for me, but give me unders. Fight doesn't go to decision as parlay pieces."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.

Connor thinks the odds should be more like -400; Neal opened -180, now -212; Medić opened +155, now +182
"I'm going to be real honest. I think this should be like your plus minus 400 odds kind of fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.

Neal's lifestyle red flags; Medic's cardio concerns
"There is no [__] way that anyone with a brain can bet Jeff Neil after he has literally told you his diet might not be the best and he has issues with drugs slash alcohol."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.

under 1.5 rounds at -175, doesn't go to decision
"I will pick Jeff Neil to get it done via KO in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.

"I think Neil wins pretty easily here and I think he gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.

Neal by KO -133
"Neil Neil KO minus 133 any round minus 133. Yeah, looks like the way to go."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go with Geoff Neal by TKO round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.

"I think Jeff Neil is significantly better and more composed in the pocket than Medic. If Jeff Neil doesn't absolutely dust rose Medic, then that'll be a huge shock."
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO R1 4:59 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)

Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.

"Carlos should win here. I think he's the better striker. There should be mostly striking going on here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.

Prates by KO, round 1
"I'm going to take Pches to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm going to pick Prates just cause I'm not going to fall off the bandwagon. And I think this is a winnable fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.

"I think the speed and explosivity of Neil will allow him to land big shots on Proches throughout the 15 minutes here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.

Late first round or second round finish; knees up the middle
"I think we're going to see this get a little bit scrappy. And I actually think we're going to see this end up being a Carlos Pres late first round or second round finish over Jeff Neil."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm tempted to take Geoff Neal. I think there's a bad version of this fight where Jeff Neil still makes it tough and might just take the rounds."
CANCEL vs Carlos Prates
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 46 of 89 51% 57 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:45
Geoff Neal 0 67 of 135 49% 80 of 148 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 18 of 27 66% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Geoff Neal 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 17 of 34 50% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Geoff Neal 0 23 of 43 53% 31 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 28 39% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Geoff Neal 0 24 of 54 44% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 46 of 89 51% 25 of 64 10 of 13 11 of 12 38 of 79 8 of 10 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 67 of 135 49% 39 of 96 18 of 27 10 of 12 65 of 133 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 20 of 38 52% 10 of 24 7 of 10 3 of 4 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ian Machado Garry 17 of 34 50% 10 of 24 4 of 6 3 of 4 11 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 23 of 43 53% 16 of 34 5 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 28 39% 4 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 24 of 54 44% 13 of 38 6 of 10 5 of 6 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, hand speed, and footwork. He notes Garry is hittable but believes he can control range and avoid Neal's power. He plans to bet Geoff Neal inside the distance decision no action, as Neal is durable and has finishing upside. He is rooting for Neal but thinks Garry wins.

Geoff Neal wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I do think Ian Gary wins though but he's not going to be anywhere near my safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal as a dog to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gary's poor striking defense (53%) and history of getting dropped, while Neal has heavy hands (nicknamed 'Hands of Steel'). He acknowledges Gary is likely winning minutes but believes Neal's power gives him a live chance to land a big shot. He mentions Neal's past health issues but thinks if he's healthy, he can knock Gary out.

Neal by KO, round 2
"I'm actually G to take Jeff Neil here as a dog I'm gonna take Jeff Neil to to land a big shot and knock out and Gary here I'll say he knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his speed and range management. He notes Neal is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles with lateral movement, as seen against Wonderboy. He expects Garry to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Neal, though he acknowledges Neal's power. He dislikes Garry's persona but believes he wins on volume.

"I think he wins more often than none on volume so could he clip Neil and put him away yeah but I think probably a decision stay to the outside pitter patter stay smart..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Machado Garry, citing his cleaner technical striking, better distance management, and superior striking defense. He notes Garry's leg kick heavy game plan against Magny (43/43 leg kicks) and believes Neal's hot-and-cold form since his near-death experience makes him unreliable. He also mentions Garry's takedown defense and five-round experience.

"I'm picking Ian Gary here... I think he's overall a cleaner technical striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is a deadly combination striker with power. He can close the pocket and exchange with Garry, opening a knockout opportunity. Garry relies on length and reach, but Neal's experience and technical advantages lead to a second-round KO.

"I think he can pull go out there and pull off the upset with a second round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Paul picks Garry despite wanting him to lose due to his persona. He notes Garry's length, technical striking, and ability to stay at range. He thinks Neal is one-dimensional and struggles with mobile strikers, as seen in the Wonderboy fight. He expects Garry to outpoint Neal with volume and lateral movement, though he acknowledges Neal's power threat.

"the pick's going to be Gary I don't I I I want him to lose though so I I know you're not supposed to let your emotions get in the way of money but it's like I would feel dirty …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal, citing Ian Garry's vulnerability to being caught on the chin and his lack of KO power in the UFC. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and his recent camp disruptions. He believes Neal's high guard and toughness will allow him to survive and land hooks, predicting a late round one or round two KO.

"I'm going Jeff Neal... you can't get dropped by Tekashi Sato and expect me not to pick Jeff Neal to finish you off."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
KO (punches) R3 2:01 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 97 of 203 47% 97 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 2 121 of 211 57% 125 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 52 of 93 55% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Geoff Neal 0 51 of 91 56% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 40 of 75 53% 43 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
3 Geoff Neal 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 97 of 203 47% 56 of 156 26 of 31 15 of 16 91 of 195 6 of 8 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 121 of 211 57% 113 of 202 5 of 6 3 of 3 103 of 186 17 of 22 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 30 of 80 37% 20 of 67 8 of 10 2 of 3 29 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 52 of 93 55% 48 of 89 3 of 3 1 of 1 49 of 87 2 of 3 1 of 3
2 Geoff Neal 51 of 91 56% 28 of 68 15 of 15 8 of 8 46 of 85 5 of 6 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 40 of 75 53% 36 of 70 2 of 3 2 of 2 33 of 66 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 16 of 32 50% 8 of 21 3 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0 21 of 33 8 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.

"strike for strike i like lucay to win not only does he have better striking differential but he's got cleaner footwork better speed and higher volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.

decision win prediction
"i think luke does win this one i'm going to say by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I'm going to take Luque as well... he's got excellent footwork... I gotta go with Luque by decision because I do think Jeff Neal's super durable."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.

Bet 2 units on Neal at +155; expects decision but open to KO
"I took the plus 155 odds on Jeff Neal I put two units on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I like Vicente Luque... he's got more options more ways to win this fight... I think Luque wins probably around 65 70 percent."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal as an underdog by 29-28 decision. He thinks Luque takes too long to get going in three-rounders and Neal's power will earn respect. He believes Neal can keep range and avoid brawling, similar to how Randy Brown and Nico Price had success. He predicts Neal wins the first round clearly, edges the second, and survives the third.

"i'm gonna go with jeff neal... i think luke takes too long to get going in three-rounders and neil's got a power that will make luke respect him"
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 85 of 161 52% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 91 of 229 39% 91 of 229 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Geoff Neal 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
3 Geoff Neal 0 46 of 73 63% 46 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 39 of 93 41% 39 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 85 of 161 52% 73 of 145 5 of 9 7 of 7 85 of 161 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 91 of 229 39% 62 of 195 12 of 17 17 of 17 90 of 228 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 20 of 41 48% 13 of 33 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 63 41% 17 of 54 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Geoff Neal 19 of 47 40% 16 of 41 2 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 15 of 61 4 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 46 of 73 63% 44 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 46 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 39 of 93 41% 30 of 80 3 of 7 6 of 6 39 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.

Neal by knockout in round 1
"i'll take neil to get the win i think a lot of people are counting them out i definitely understand why but i don't take neil to get the knockout here in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.

"give me santiago ponzinibio to win a war of attrition here once again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.

by KO
"i'm going jeff neal again a couple contrarian picks compared to what i've been seeing out there recently but i feel decent about it here in jeff know especially at these underdog odds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.

30-27 decision win
"i'm going to go with santiago ponzibio here over jeff neal um i was picking ponzinio anyway more experienced better technically on the feet"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."