vs
-200 +180
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022 · Catchweight (172.5 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Age 31
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 76"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Orion Cosce
2.77 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.02 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.92 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mike Mathetha
3.12 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.17 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Orion Cosce
Moneyline
FanDuel -200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +195
Submission
BetRivers +475
Decision
FanDuel +420
Mike Mathetha
Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
DraftKings +2800
Decision
BetRivers +540
Orion Cosce - Fight History
LOSS vs Gilbert Urbina
TKO (front kick and knees) R2 2:55 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Urbina 0 16 of 32 50% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Orion Cosce 1 51 of 82 62% 100 of 139 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Urbina 0 10 of 18 55% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Orion Cosce 0 34 of 47 72% 83 of 104 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:06
2 Gilbert Urbina 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Orion Cosce 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Urbina 16 of 32 50% 9 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 4 14 of 29 1 of 2 1 of 1
Orion Cosce 51 of 82 62% 31 of 56 12 of 16 8 of 10 27 of 55 4 of 4 20 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Urbina 10 of 18 55% 7 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Orion Cosce 34 of 47 72% 23 of 34 9 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 21 3 of 3 20 of 23
2 Gilbert Urbina 6 of 14 42% 2 of 8 2 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 17 of 35 48% 8 of 22 3 of 6 6 of 7 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Angelo picks Orion Cosce because he believes Cosce can get takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Urbina's takedown defense. He notes Cosce's poor fight IQ and striking, but thinks he can grind out a win. He plans to bet on Orion to have more takedowns when the prop lines drop on Friday.

Plan to bet on Orion Cosce more takedowns when prop lines drop
"I'm still gonna pick Orion here because very simply I think he can get the takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Gilbert's takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to submit Gilbert Urbina in the third round. He notes that both fighters have questionable cardio, but he trusts Cosce to push through fatigue better. He sees Cosce as the better wrestler who can mix in takedowns and wear on Urbina, eventually getting a late submission. However, he admits he doesn't trust either fighter completely and calls it a low-level fight.

submission in round 3
"give me a Ryan Cosi to mix in the takedowns make this a very grinding heavy fight and then eventually uh get urbina in a sub in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody thinks Cosce has a clinch advantage and better wrestling, but his cardio is a concern. He expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans Cosce due to his physicality. He is not confident and calls it a greasy fight.

"I will take him but so greasy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Connor also picks Cosce, agreeing that he is a better athlete and more coordinated. He points out that Urbina gets tired and runs out of ideas, while Cosce maintains consistent power wrestling. Connor expects Cosce to win the first round and then both fighters to fall off, but Cosce will have the lead.

"I'll take CoC as well. But this fight could, CoC is not, unfortunately, a clinical enough fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel Levi picks Orion Cosce based on a coin flip, calling both fighters 'frauds.' He notes Cosce has more wrestling but gassing issues, while Urbina is more dangerous but can't wrestle. He is not confident and says he is passing on betting this fight. He leans Cosce because the coin said so.

"the coin says we're gonna go with uh with Orion kosai to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

The host picks Gilbert Urbina as an underdog, citing his more complete skill set including better striking, jiu-jitsu, and wrestling. He thinks Urbina's activity off his back could lead to a submission, and he expects the pace to force Cosce to slow down. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and predicts a submission in the second round.

under 2.5 rounds, submission in round 2
"give me Gilbert urbina I want to save you a club in sub probably in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Urbina

Paul picks Urbina to be different, citing a potential edge in cardio and length. He acknowledges both fighters are unreliable and that the loser may be cut. He is not confident and will not bet.

"I'll take urbina just to be different."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce, citing his wrestling and grinding style. He notes Cosce's loss to Blood Diamond is not disqualifying, as Philip Rowe is a good fighter. He questions Gilbert Urbina's UFC caliber, suggesting he may not deserve to be there, and also raises concerns about Urbina's weight cut and conditioning. He expects Cosce to grind out a decision over the rounds.

"Orion koshke I think he wins this fight ... I think koshke will grind him out over the rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Orion Cosce

Zane picks Cosce, describing him as a slightly better athlete and more consistently putting himself in strong positions with good leverage for throws and lifts. He notes that Urbina is not very coordinated and lacks natural athleticism, and that Cosce's power wrestling game should prevail. Zane expects an ugly fight but sees Cosce winning the first round when fresh.

"I'll take Cozy. I think he's just a slightly better athlete."
WIN vs Mike Mathetha
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Orion Cosce 0 25 of 52 48% 77 of 107 3 of 8 37% 0 0 9:26
Mike Mathetha 0 63 of 98 64% 90 of 126 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Orion Cosce 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:00
Mike Mathetha 0 20 of 28 71% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
2 Orion Cosce 0 12 of 25 48% 21 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:20
Mike Mathetha 0 33 of 59 55% 50 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
3 Orion Cosce 0 5 of 12 41% 38 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:06
Mike Mathetha 0 10 of 11 90% 17 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Orion Cosce 25 of 52 48% 14 of 38 10 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 27 9 of 14 8 of 11
Mike Mathetha 63 of 98 64% 28 of 55 26 of 29 9 of 14 34 of 60 29 of 37 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Orion Cosce 8 of 15 53% 4 of 9 3 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 7 3 of 5 3 of 3
Mike Mathetha 20 of 28 71% 5 of 9 12 of 14 3 of 5 9 of 17 11 of 11 0 of 0
2 Orion Cosce 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 6 of 9 1 of 3
Mike Mathetha 33 of 59 55% 19 of 42 10 of 11 4 of 6 17 of 34 16 of 24 0 of 1
3 Orion Cosce 5 of 12 41% 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Mike Mathetha 10 of 11 90% 4 of 4 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to win by first-round submission. He notes Cosce is the wrestler with a 100% finish rate, but has cardio concerns if the fight extends past the first round. He believes Cosce will get takedowns early and finish Mathetha, who has a kickboxing background but limited MMA experience. Brady is staying away from betting this fight due to the sketchy nature of low-level matchups.

"I will go with orion cosy and i'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody picks Cosce, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes that Blood Diamond has zero takedown defense and will be taken down and mauled. He thinks Cosce will get the takedown early and deliver ground and pound. He also mentions that Cosce has cardio issues but expects him to finish inside two rounds. He says the price is about right but that Cosce should win.

"i got to go back to the wrestling the wrestling is everything blood diamond seemingly has zero ability to stuff the takedown"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel picks Cosce but is not confident. He notes Cosce has serious gas tank issues and is not a great grappler. He acknowledges Blood Diamond's kickboxing background but says his MMA experience is minimal (3-1). He thinks if Cosce can take the fight to the ground, he can win, but if they stand and bang, it could get interesting. He does not want to lay -175 on Cosce, so he passes on betting.

"Cosce is my pick but I'm just not trying to lay minus 175 on Cosce."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Orion Cosce

Preet expects Cosce to get the fight to the ground quickly and finish early, or Blood Diamond catches him on the way in. He bet the under 1.5 rounds at +111, predicting an early finish either way. He notes Cosce's rough weight cut but still leans on his grappling to end it quickly.

under 1.5 rounds +111
"my personal bet that i've taken here is the under one and a half plus 111"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Paul leans Cosce but is not confident. He notes that Blood Diamond is knockout or bust and that Cosce has a wrestling advantage. He thinks Cosce will take him down and finish him early, but if it goes to the second or third, Cosce's cardio could be an issue. He also mentions that Blood Diamond pulled out of the fight six weeks ago, which is a concern. He says he would wait for live betting after the first round.

"i would take koski again i don't love the price tag but this could be one of those fights where you could get a guy and he'll look like a minus a thousand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Mike Mathetha

The MMA Guru predicts Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond) will win by TKO in the third round. He expects Orion Cosce to take Mathetha down repeatedly in the first two rounds, but Mathetha will work back to his feet and land damaging knees to the body. Cosce's weight cut was bad, so he will slow down in round three, allowing Mathetha to finish him with knees and strikes.

TKO in round 3
"i think we can start to see those knees to the body start adding up on orion koshka ... finish him in the third round by tko"
LOSS vs Philip Rowe
TKO (punches) R2 4:21 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 1 46 of 93 49% 53 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Orion Cosce 0 22 of 52 42% 51 of 82 2 of 6 33% 0 0 6:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Orion Cosce 0 7 of 11 63% 22 of 27 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:35
2 Philip Rowe 1 43 of 87 49% 45 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Orion Cosce 0 15 of 41 36% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 46 of 93 49% 32 of 76 13 of 16 1 of 1 33 of 78 13 of 15 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 22 of 52 42% 17 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 44 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
2 Philip Rowe 43 of 87 49% 31 of 72 12 of 15 0 of 0 31 of 73 12 of 14 0 of 0
Orion Cosce 15 of 41 36% 11 of 35 3 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 38 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Philip Rowe over Orion Cosce. He highlights Rowe's significant 9.5-inch reach advantage and superior cardio, noting that Rowe is a better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and slick submissions off his back. He expects Cosce to have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Rowe to secure a late finish. Brady predicts a third-round knockout for Rowe.

third round knockout
"give me a philip rowe for a uh give me a third round knockout for philip rowe here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody picks Philip Rowe as a live underdog, citing his massive reach advantage (9 inches) and tricky striking. He notes that Cosce has cardio issues and that Rowe can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Cody believes that if Rowe survives the first round, he can take over as Cosce tires. He already placed a bet on Rowe at +150.

Cody bet on Philip Rowe at +150.
"i already i that was my first bet that i made on the card i took a plus 150 on philip rowe"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi is surprised that Cosce is a -160 favorite, as he sees this as a more even fight. He believes Rowe has significant physical advantages with his 81-inch reach and 6'4" frame, and that his jiu-jitsu training under Julian Williams and Adolfo Vieira gives him a submission threat. Levi acknowledges Rowe's vulnerability to leg kicks due to his build but hasn't seen Cosce employ that strategy. He leans on Rowe to use his physical tools and possibly find a submission or grind out a decision.

Surprised by the line; thinks Cosce should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'm not really sure you know why why the confidence so I'm gonna go with phil roe here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Philip Rowe

Rowe has a huge reach and height advantage, slicker boxing, good movement, and enough jiu-jitsu to avoid trouble. Cosce's regional tape shows gassing and sketchy competition. Rowe's distance striking should wear Cosce down as the fight progresses. The only concern is leg kicks, but Cosce doesn't rely on them heavily. Rowe by decision is the most likely outcome.

Rowe by decision +360 (sprinkle)
"I do like Phil Roe in this spot I think he's a solid underdog... I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Paul leans towards Orion Cosce, noting his power and wrestling advantage. He believes Cosce can take Rowe down and use his strength to control the fight. However, he is concerned about Cosce's cardio and the reach disadvantage. Paul sees this as a close fight and is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot.

"i think it's dogger pass i've already got some action in on this"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce over Philip Rowe, stating that Cosce is better and pressures opponents. He notes that Rowe struggled against Gabriel Green, who pressured him, and that Cosce is a better pressure fighter. He expects Cosce to break Rowe as the rounds go on and predicts a finish in the third round by TKO.

Cosce by TKO in round 3
"i'm gonna go over ryan koski here over philip bro... i think he'll get a finish in the third round by tko"
Mike Mathetha - Fight History
LOSS vs Charles Radtke
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 44 of 94 46% 75 of 136 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Mike Mathetha 0 35 of 76 46% 63 of 112 1 of 6 16% 0 0 9:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 4 of 13 30% 9 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Mathetha 0 4 of 11 36% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:55
2 Charles Radtke 0 13 of 34 38% 24 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Mike Mathetha 0 20 of 39 51% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:43
3 Charles Radtke 0 27 of 47 57% 42 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Mike Mathetha 0 11 of 26 42% 20 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 44 of 94 46% 19 of 58 19 of 28 6 of 8 19 of 58 25 of 36 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 35 of 76 46% 31 of 72 4 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 59 8 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Charles Radtke 13 of 34 38% 2 of 17 8 of 12 3 of 5 6 of 22 7 of 12 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 20 of 39 51% 18 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 31 3 of 8 0 of 0
3 Charles Radtke 27 of 47 57% 15 of 30 9 of 14 3 of 3 11 of 26 16 of 21 0 of 0
Mike Mathetha 11 of 26 42% 9 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 20 4 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mike Mathetha

Angelo is shooting his shot on Blood Diamond as a two-to-one underdog. He notes that Charlie Radtke is a big favorite but has questionable cardio and gets hit by regional-level fighters. If Blood Diamond can defend takedowns, his striking should be too much. Angelo plans to look for a KO prop at plus money when props drop.

Considering KO prop at plus money; win inside distance decision no action
"These odds are way too wide for a UFC debut with questionable cardio I'm going to shoot my shot here on blood diamond"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charlie Radtke but is not confident laying the price. He notes Radtke's good jiu-jitsu and submission skills, but worries he hasn't wrestled much. He thinks if Radtke gets takedowns, he will submit Blood Diamond. He predicts a second-round submission.

"give me a Charlie Rocky to win this fight I'll say he wins it by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mike Mathetha

Cody picks Mathetha as a value underdog, arguing that the line is inaccurate and that Radtke's wrestling may not be as effective as expected. He notes that Mathetha has a kickboxing background and could win if the fight stays standing. Cody is tempted by the plus money and sees this as a potential upset.

Three-to-one shoe bet on Mathetha
"it's blood diamond dude what are you doing what are you doing so uh Austin Lane not the PRP pick maybe Blood Diamond"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Levi picks Charlie Radtke but is not confident in the price. He thinks Radtke is overhyped and not as special as people claim. However, he gives Radtke the edge due to more MMA experience and offensive grappling. Levi notes that Mathetha has been off for over a year and could have improved his grappling, but until he sees it, he picks against him.

Odds mentioned: Radtke minus 345, Mathetha plus 280. Levi says no way he lays that price.
"I am going to pick Chuck Buffalo you know because until I see those improvements from Blood Diamond I'm not gonna make the Assumption of where blood diamonds Improvement level is grappling wise until I see it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke is a CFFC welterweight champion with a BJJ black belt, recently winning by submission. He closes distance well and uses trips and throws to get fights to the ground. Blood Diamond is a kickboxer who has been fed grapplers and is still seeking his first UFC win. Radtke should be competitive on the feet and then take the fight to the mat, working for a submission within the under 2.5 round mark. The pick is Radtke by submission.

under 2.5 rounds at -185
"Radke's going to be my pick... prediction is going to be Radke by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Paul picks Radtke, citing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes that Mathetha has poor takedown defense and that Radtke should be able to secure a submission. Paul likes the Radtke by submission prop and believes Radtke will win this fight even if he loses every other fight in the UFC.

Radtke by submission (+190)
"I think Radtke you know wins this fight by sub and then loses every other fight that he has in the promotion and then gets cut"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charlie Radtke over Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond), despite acknowledging that Radtke may not be UFC caliber. He notes that Mathetha has significant holes in his game, particularly in grappling, and is old (34-35) to make adjustments. Radtke has a win over Raheem Forrest, a regional prospect, and showed grappling ability by choking him out after getting rocked. He believes Radtke will outgrapple Mathetha and submit him in the first round.

submission in round 1
"I'm gonna go with Charlie Radke"
LOSS vs Orion Cosce
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Orion Cosce 0 25 of 52 48% 77 of 107 3 of 8 37% 0 0 9:26
Mike Mathetha 0 63 of 98 64% 90 of 126 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Orion Cosce 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:00
Mike Mathetha 0 20 of 28 71% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
2 Orion Cosce 0 12 of 25 48% 21 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:20
Mike Mathetha 0 33 of 59 55% 50 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
3 Orion Cosce 0 5 of 12 41% 38 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:06
Mike Mathetha 0 10 of 11 90% 17 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Orion Cosce 25 of 52 48% 14 of 38 10 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 27 9 of 14 8 of 11
Mike Mathetha 63 of 98 64% 28 of 55 26 of 29 9 of 14 34 of 60 29 of 37 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Orion Cosce 8 of 15 53% 4 of 9 3 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 7 3 of 5 3 of 3
Mike Mathetha 20 of 28 71% 5 of 9 12 of 14 3 of 5 9 of 17 11 of 11 0 of 0
2 Orion Cosce 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 6 of 9 1 of 3
Mike Mathetha 33 of 59 55% 19 of 42 10 of 11 4 of 6 17 of 34 16 of 24 0 of 1
3 Orion Cosce 5 of 12 41% 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Mike Mathetha 10 of 11 90% 4 of 4 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to win by first-round submission. He notes Cosce is the wrestler with a 100% finish rate, but has cardio concerns if the fight extends past the first round. He believes Cosce will get takedowns early and finish Mathetha, who has a kickboxing background but limited MMA experience. Brady is staying away from betting this fight due to the sketchy nature of low-level matchups.

"I will go with orion cosy and i'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody picks Cosce, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes that Blood Diamond has zero takedown defense and will be taken down and mauled. He thinks Cosce will get the takedown early and deliver ground and pound. He also mentions that Cosce has cardio issues but expects him to finish inside two rounds. He says the price is about right but that Cosce should win.

"i got to go back to the wrestling the wrestling is everything blood diamond seemingly has zero ability to stuff the takedown"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel picks Cosce but is not confident. He notes Cosce has serious gas tank issues and is not a great grappler. He acknowledges Blood Diamond's kickboxing background but says his MMA experience is minimal (3-1). He thinks if Cosce can take the fight to the ground, he can win, but if they stand and bang, it could get interesting. He does not want to lay -175 on Cosce, so he passes on betting.

"Cosce is my pick but I'm just not trying to lay minus 175 on Cosce."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Orion Cosce

Preet expects Cosce to get the fight to the ground quickly and finish early, or Blood Diamond catches him on the way in. He bet the under 1.5 rounds at +111, predicting an early finish either way. He notes Cosce's rough weight cut but still leans on his grappling to end it quickly.

under 1.5 rounds +111
"my personal bet that i've taken here is the under one and a half plus 111"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Paul leans Cosce but is not confident. He notes that Blood Diamond is knockout or bust and that Cosce has a wrestling advantage. He thinks Cosce will take him down and finish him early, but if it goes to the second or third, Cosce's cardio could be an issue. He also mentions that Blood Diamond pulled out of the fight six weeks ago, which is a concern. He says he would wait for live betting after the first round.

"i would take koski again i don't love the price tag but this could be one of those fights where you could get a guy and he'll look like a minus a thousand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Mike Mathetha

The MMA Guru predicts Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond) will win by TKO in the third round. He expects Orion Cosce to take Mathetha down repeatedly in the first two rounds, but Mathetha will work back to his feet and land damaging knees to the body. Cosce's weight cut was bad, so he will slow down in round three, allowing Mathetha to finish him with knees and strikes.

TKO in round 3
"i think we can start to see those knees to the body start adding up on orion koshka ... finish him in the third round by tko"
LOSS vs Jeremiah Wells
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:38 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeremiah Wells 0 15 of 19 78% 23 of 27 1 of 5 20% 1 0 4:25
Mike Mathetha 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeremiah Wells 0 15 of 19 78% 23 of 27 1 of 5 20% 1 0 4:25
Mike Mathetha 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeremiah Wells 15 of 19 78% 14 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 16
Mike Mathetha 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeremiah Wells 15 of 19 78% 14 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 16
Mike Mathetha 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mike Mathetha vs. Jeremiah Wells

Round 1
No matter what the broadcast displays, the debuting fighter out of City Kickboxing’s name is Mike Mathetha (3-0, 0-0 UFC), and not “Blood Diamond.” That is just his nickname. In his first Octagon appearance with just three pro MMA fights on his belt and an unknown number of kickboxing contests in the past, he will take on the surging powerhouse Wells (9-2-1, 1-0 UFC) at welterweight. Keeping his head on a swivel will be referee Jacob Montalvo, and Wells decides against touching gloves and instead sprints around the edge of the cage to possibly gain momentum and fly out with a strike, but he trips and nearly blows out his ankle. Mathetha crashes in while loading up on a right hand, and he misses it and they clinch up, with Wells trying to take the fight down. The action stalls out with Wells in pursuit of a body lock, but he cannot get the right leverage and cannot trip Mathetha down. Wells opts to lift Mathetha in the air, and he slams him to the mat and immediately lands in mount. “Blood Diamond” turns over, and he gives up his back while Wells hunts for a quick rear-naked choke. Wells flattens Mathetha out as Mathetha turns to his side, and Wells slugs away at him before latching on to another rear-naked choke. The City Kickboxing fighter turns into the choke with his chin tucked, stifling the submission, and Wells postures up to blast Mathetha with high elbows and punches. Mathetha gets to his knees, only to get wrenched back down, all while Wells works him over with punches. Wells pounds on Mathetha with right hands, and a strike or two hits the back of the head without any protest. Wells goes for another rear-naked choke, and bails on it to find a better angle as Mathetha sits up.
“Blood Diamond” makes a grave mistake by trying to stand without fighting off the choke, and he falls down to the mat when Wells sinks in the choke once and for all. Without any hooks in, the Philadelphia native squeezes with all his might, and “Blood Diamond” goes out on his shield and falls unconscious instead of tapping out.
Wells lets Montalvo know Wells is sleeping, Montalvo checks Mathetha’s arm, and it is limp. Montalvo intervenes quickly, and Mathetha comes to soon enough with no harm done.

The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Mike Mathetha R1 4:38 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells because he is the more complete MMA fighter with solid takedowns and very good BJJ. He acknowledges that Mathetha is a dangerous striker but believes Wells can close the distance, drop down for takedowns, and work his jiu-jitsu. He notes that Wells' striking is wild but sets up his grappling.

"i've got to go with jeremiah here because while he will not be anywhere near the technical striker that blood diamond is he is still dangerous on his feet he's got solid takedowns very good bjj"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Big Brady is confident in Jeremiah Wells due to his well-rounded skills, power, and cardio. He notes Wells trains at Renzo Gracie Philly and has a legit black belt in BJJ with good wrestling. He expects Wells to take down Blood Diamond and submit him in the first round, as Blood Diamond's competition has been weak and his takedown defense is questionable. Brady also mentions Wells has never been knocked out.

Wells by first round submission
"I think wells makes quick work of blood diamond here... easy path to victory here wells take him down submit him in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Cody agrees, noting Wells' BJJ black belt and power. He thinks Mathetha's lack of ground game and poor fundamentals will be exposed. He expects Wells to finish early, possibly by submission.

under 1.5 rounds -120
"i'm all over the under"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Daniel Levi picks Jeremiah Wells, citing his experience, black belt in jiu-jitsu, and improvement on the feet. He notes that Mike Mathetha is a kickboxer transitioning to MMA with only three fights and a two-year layoff. Levi believes Wells will use his grappling to expose Mathetha's lack of MMA experience.

"i'm going jeremiah wells i just think he's the more complete fighter"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Wells is a strong grappler who should easily take Mathetha down and finish him. Mathetha is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense and has been controlled against the cage in past fights. Wells has seen harder shots and has cardio comparable to Mathetha. The inside the distance line at -125 is the best play as Wells should get a finish.

inside the distance at -125; first round submission
"i think the inside the distance line is currently sitting at minus 125 which i think is probably the best way to play this as i think he's going to be able to get matata out of there pretty easily"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Paul is very confident in Wells, citing his grappling advantage and power. He notes Mathetha has no ground game and is a kickboxer with sloppy technique. He expects Wells to take him down and submit him early.

under 1.5 rounds -120
"i think wells takes him down and absolutely mauls him down there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

The MMA Guru picks Jeremiah Wells to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Mike Mathetha's kickboxing level, calling him clumsy and overhyped, while noting Wells' explosive power and grappling advantage. He believes the debut pressure will be too much for Mathetha.

first round ko
"i reckon jeremiah wells is going to score a first round brutal ko over mike mathetha"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to win by first-round submission. He notes Cosce is the wrestler with a 100% finish rate, but has cardio concerns if the fight extends past the first round. He believes Cosce will get takedowns early and finish Mathetha, who has a kickboxing background but limited MMA experience. Brady is staying away from betting this fight due to the sketchy nature of low-level matchups.

"I will go with orion cosy and i'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Cody picks Cosce, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes that Blood Diamond has zero takedown defense and will be taken down and mauled. He thinks Cosce will get the takedown early and deliver ground and pound. He also mentions that Cosce has cardio issues but expects him to finish inside two rounds. He says the price is about right but that Cosce should win.

"i got to go back to the wrestling the wrestling is everything blood diamond seemingly has zero ability to stuff the takedown"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Daniel picks Cosce but is not confident. He notes Cosce has serious gas tank issues and is not a great grappler. He acknowledges Blood Diamond's kickboxing background but says his MMA experience is minimal (3-1). He thinks if Cosce can take the fight to the ground, he can win, but if they stand and bang, it could get interesting. He does not want to lay -175 on Cosce, so he passes on betting.

"Cosce is my pick but I'm just not trying to lay minus 175 on Cosce."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Orion Cosce

Preet expects Cosce to get the fight to the ground quickly and finish early, or Blood Diamond catches him on the way in. He bet the under 1.5 rounds at +111, predicting an early finish either way. He notes Cosce's rough weight cut but still leans on his grappling to end it quickly.

under 1.5 rounds +111
"my personal bet that i've taken here is the under one and a half plus 111"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Orion Cosce

Paul leans Cosce but is not confident. He notes that Blood Diamond is knockout or bust and that Cosce has a wrestling advantage. He thinks Cosce will take him down and finish him early, but if it goes to the second or third, Cosce's cardio could be an issue. He also mentions that Blood Diamond pulled out of the fight six weeks ago, which is a concern. He says he would wait for live betting after the first round.

"i would take koski again i don't love the price tag but this could be one of those fights where you could get a guy and he'll look like a minus a thousand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Mike Mathetha

The MMA Guru predicts Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond) will win by TKO in the third round. He expects Orion Cosce to take Mathetha down repeatedly in the first two rounds, but Mathetha will work back to his feet and land damaging knees to the body. Cosce's weight cut was bad, so he will slow down in round three, allowing Mathetha to finish him with knees and strikes.

TKO in round 3
"i think we can start to see those knees to the body start adding up on orion koshka ... finish him in the third round by tko"