Career Averages - Sergei Pavlovich
Career Averages - Derrick Lewis
Sergei Pavlovich
Derrick Lewis
Sergei Pavlovich - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-600); Teixeira (+450)
Round 1
The feature fight of UFC Macau is also the only heavyweight bout on the card, and on a night with five first-round finishes in 10 fights so far, knockout merchants Pavlovich (20-3; 8-3 UFC) and Teixeira (9-1; 2-1 UFC) may well push us over .500 in that recard. Lukasz Bosacki is the referee, and the big men take the center of the Octagon in matching orthodox stances. Pavlovich surges forward swinging huge punches with both hands.
He crushes the massive Brazilian with an overhand right, misses with a left as Teixeira stumbles backward, then catches him with another right and the tall man goes down in a heap. Another follow-up punch glances off, but Bosacki is already diving in to stave off further punishment.
After two straight uncharacteristic decision wins in 2025, Sergei Pavlovich has just turned in a vintage performance.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Tallison Teixeira R1 0:39 via TKO (Punches)
AJ is confident Pavlovich will win, calling Teixeira not very good and noting his competitive fight with Tai Tuivasa and loss to old Derrick Lewis. He highlights Pavlovich's destruction of Tuivasa and win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta. AJ thinks Pavlovich will knock him out, possibly in round one, but also acknowledges Pavlovich can be patient and go to decision. He calls it a tune-up fight for Pavlovich.
AJ picks Sergei Pavlovich confidently, expecting a knockout despite Pavlovich's recent patient approach. He notes Pavlovich's punching power and underrated wrestling, while Teixeira is hittable and takes risks. AJ thinks Pavlovich will eventually land a big shot, possibly after the over 1.5 rounds mark, but is confident in a KO win.
AJ calls Pavlovich a lock, citing his terrifying boxing, knockout power, and defensive grappling. He thinks Teixeira is not ready, noting his poor defense and panic grappling. AJ predicts a first-round KO, as Pavlovich has the reach and power to put Teixeira away early.
Angelo confidently picks Sergei Pavlovich by KO, calling Teixeira a 'bum' who only wins because he's big. He notes Pavlovich's power and speed against a lower-level opponent, predicting a quick knockout similar to Derrick Lewis's finish.
Angelo picks Sergei Pavlovich because he is too fast, too powerful, and too dangerous. He notes that Pavlovich's only losses are to elite fighters and that Tallison Teixeira has poor striking defense. He expects a knockout.
Angelo picks Sergei Pavlovich, citing his speed, power, and experience. He notes that Teixeira struggled against higher competition and doesn't have a good jab like Volkov, who gave Pavlovich trouble. He believes Pavlovich is better everywhere and should find a knockout, though he acknowledges the odds are too rich to bet.
Big Brady is very confident in Pavlovich, calling Teixeira a fraud for failing to submit Tai Tuivasa and gassing out. He believes Pavlovich's power and size will be too much, and Teixeira is defensively irresponsible with tall man's defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, noting Pavlovich has gone to decision in his last three but Teixeira is less durable than Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Cody sees this as a setup match for Pavlovich to get a highlight-reel knockout. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling background and power, and that Teixeira has been knocked out before (Derrick Lewis). Cody believes Pavlovich will pressure, land overhands, and finish early, putting him back in title contention. He acknowledges the risk of a heavyweight fight but is confident in a vintage performance.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pavlovich. He notes that Teixeira's game is still raw and he tends to back himself into the cage, which plays into Pavlovich's pressure. Connor also mentions that Pavlovich has evolved a jab and counterpunching, making him more dangerous at range. He expresses hope that Teixeira might have leveled up from the Tuivasa fight, but doubts it given the short turnaround.
Levi is extremely confident in Pavlovich, calling the fight a mismatch. He criticizes Teixeira's poor defense, citing his chin-up, hands-down style exposed against Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. Levi expects Pavlovich to knock Teixeira out easily.
Jacob picks Sergei Pavlovich because Tallison Teixeira is not very good and has terrible striking defense. He notes that Pavlovich is the better striker and that Teixeira's win over Tai Tuivasa was unimpressive. He acknowledges the price is thick but believes Pavlovich should win.
Lucrative James is very confident in Pavlovich, calling him a 'home run' in this fight. He criticizes Teixeira's poor defense, cardio issues, and lack of high-level competition, noting that Teixeira struggled against a washed Derrick Lewis and a past-prime Tai Tuivasa. He highlights Pavlovich's power, improved wrestling, and smart fight IQ, referencing his camp with a Russian national boxing team member to prepare for Teixeira's height. He predicts a knockout, believing Pavlovich will land clean and finish early.
The host picks Sergei Pavlovich, citing his knockout power and speed. He notes Pavlovich has taken a more disciplined approach but is much more explosive and powerful than Teixeira, predicting a first-round knockout.
The host picks Pavlovich, citing his speed, power, and tougher strength of schedule. He believes Pavlovich will stop Teixeira's grappling and find his chin quickly, leading to a knockout. He notes Teixeira's chin is a question mark after being knocked out by Derrick Lewis.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a setup match. He notes Pavlovich's first-round finishes in his first seven UFC fights and that his recent decision losses were against tall fighters (Volkov) but Teixeira is not at that level. Paul expects Pavlovich to pressure and land big shots, finishing Teixeira early.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win. He believes Pavlovich will make a comeback and knock out Teixeira. He notes that Pavlovich has experience at a high level and despite recent tentative performances, he should be able to land his punches. He also mentions that Teixeira has been fast-tracked and his wrestling isn't a threat to Pavlovich.
The Guru picks Pavlovich at a very high clip. He notes Pavlovich has fight-ending power, good boxing combinations, and a surprising reach advantage over the 6'7 Teixeira. Teixeira is athletic and has power but is outmatched everywhere. The only path for Teixeira is an errant knockout shot.
The Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Talison Teixeira, calling it a 'hydrogen bomb versus coughing baby' matchup. He believes Pavlovich's power, patience, and cardio will break down Teixeira, who has questionable cardio and has fought low-level competition. He expects Pavlovich to find a late finish after Teixeira slows down.
Zane picks Pavlovich, stating that Teixeira's recent fight against Tai Tuivasa showed he still has major defensive flaws and relies on wrestling to survive. Pavlovich is a much better striker with a working jab and huge power, and he knocked out both Tuivasa and Lewis quickly. Zane notes that Teixeira has potential but hasn't had time to improve since his last fight three months ago, and Pavlovich is a terrible matchup for him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 61 of 133 | 45% | 63 of 136 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 45 of 117 | 38% | 45 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 14 of 46 | 30% | 14 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 61 of 133 | 45% | 35 of 104 | 12 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 60 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 45 of 117 | 38% | 27 of 88 | 4 of 10 | 14 of 19 | 45 of 114 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 9 of 28 | 32% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 11 of 34 | 32% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 22 of 43 | 51% | 13 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 20 of 37 | 54% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 30 of 62 | 48% | 16 of 48 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 30 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 14 of 46 | 30% | 7 of 36 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Next up is the lone heavyweight bout of the evening—despite Brian Ortega’s best efforts—as Cortes-Acosta will look to build on his five-fight win streak and certify himself a legitimate title contender. Opposite the surging “Salsa Boy” will be Pavlovich, who seeks to reaffirm his own contender status after righting the ship against Jairzinho Rozenstruik back in February. Tasked with keeping things nice and clean will be referee Marc Goddard. Both big men are in orthodox stance, and both send out tentative jabs in the opening moments. They end up doing some lead-hand jousting as neither seems to want to be the first to go. Pavlovich is calmly maneuvering Cortes-Acosta into the cage. He comes off the fence swinging and there is an inadvertent clash of heads, but both men keep on fighting. They meet near the center of the cage and exchange a flurry of punches, with both men landing cleanly. Cortes-Acosta, far from being backed off by the Russian’s vaunted power, seems emboldened, stepping into the pocket and unloading. He lands several solid punches and takes a big one from Pavlovich in return. Cortes-Acosta lands a hard leg kick and gets countered hard with a right hand over the top. A minute left in the round and both fighters have taken some serious fire but neither is backing down. Cortes-Acosta surges forward and eats a right uppercut. The horn sounds.
10-9 Pavlovich.
Round 2
Cortes-Acosta and Pavlovich pick up right where they left off, and Pavlovich catches his man with another sneaky uppercut as he exits the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands a good jab, and Pavlovich flicks out a front kick up the middle. Cortes-Acosta wades into range with a pair of haymakers, which Pavlovich slips. Pavlovich lands a big left-right combo that hurts the Panamanian. Cortes-Acosta stumbles back into the fence but recovers quickly, and they go back to work. Cortes-Acosta scores with a hard calf kick, and Pavlovich is showing the damage from that one and the several he took in Round 1. Pavlovich cuts off the cage nicely, walks Cortes-Acosta to the warning track and nails him with two hard punches. Cortes-Acosta takes a kick to the midsection, gestures at his cup and appears to want the foul called, but Goddard tells them it was on the belt and to keep fighting. Pavlovich is gradually taking over this fight on the feet, as he is starting to find Cortes-Acosta’s head with his jab and cross over and over again.
10-9 Pavlovich.
Round 3
The final frame opens up, as the first two did, with the heavyweight contenders measuring each other for big right hands in the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands another hard leg kick and Pavlovich responds with one of his own. Pavlovich cracks Cortes-Acosta with a huge right hand that staggers him, but he recovers in a flash and makes the universal “that didn’t hurt” hand sign. Pavlovich calmly steps forward and appears to have taken his foe’s measure. Cortes-Acosta is reaching and lunging to land his punches, while Pavlovich is composed, squarely over his feet and catching him with clean counters. He is outclassing Cortes-Acosta at this point, and short of some heavyweight weirdness, the main question remaining is whether he will score the knockout. Pavlovich tags Cortes-Acosta with a pair of huge hooks that make him stumble, but doesn’t press the issue. Cortes-Acosta rebounds from the fence, wades back in and gets clocked again. Cortes-Acosta hears the 10-second clapper and gestures at the floor, but Pavlovich is not particularly interested in being on the wrong side of any last-second heroics. The final horn sounds on a quietly dominant performance by the Russian.
10-9 Pavlovich (30-27 Pavlovich).
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, calling him more well-rounded, athletic, and durable. He notes that Pavlovich is one-dimensional as a boxer and that Waldo can shoot takedowns and has a giant chin. He has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225, which he thinks is crazy. He references Waldo's toughness and evolution as a fighter.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win, but with hesitation due to Pavlovich's recent lack of killer instinct since being knocked out by Aspinall. He notes that Pavlovich has been hesitant in recent fights, but if the old Pavlovich shows up, he will knock out Cortes Acosta in the first round. He is worried Pavlovich might stick at range or wrestle, making the fight harder.
Connor is confident Pavlovich should win, as he is the first elite-level heavyweight Cortes Acosta has faced. He notes that Pavlovich has better punching mechanics, more power, and a significant reach advantage (84 inches vs 78). However, he worries that Pavlovich might get deer-in-the-headlights against Cortes Acosta's size and durability, leading to a staring contest. Connor also mentions that Pavlovich looked good in his last fight, showing improved wrestling and striking choices.
The host initially thought he would like the plus money on Cortes Acosta, but after seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich in his last fight, he thinks Pavlovich can shut down the jab of Cortes Acosta and land big shots leading to knockdowns, knockouts, or takedowns. He expects Pavlovich to be in the driver's seat and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round KO. He highlights Pavlovich's 14-inch reach advantage and believes he is more athletic, faster, and more powerful than Cortes Acosta. He criticizes Cortes Acosta's close decisions against unranked opponents and notes that Pavlovich has finished similar fighters quickly. He also mentions that Pavlovich can use grappling and low kicks if needed.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cortes Acosta's style is a neutralizer that relies on not doing anything stupid, but Pavlovich's power and athleticism should overwhelm him. He points out that Pavlovich's wins often come from opponents freaking out, but he still has the tools to win. Zane is hopeful Pavlovich can make the fight entertaining.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 145 of 208 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:17 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 3 of 19 | 15% | 39 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 74 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 6 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 25 of 60 | 41% | 21 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 17 of 55 | 30% | 7 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 7 of 15 | 46% | 0 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 3 of 19 | 15% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 11 of 18 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 23 | 17% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Business picks up in the heavyweight division, where Pavlovich (18-3, 6-3 UFC) sets his sights on Rozenstruik (15-5, 9-5 UFC) in a three-round showcase. They have nine sub-minute finishes between them. Smith handles the refereeing duties. The former training partners are ready to go. They meet in the middle without a glove touch. Rozenstruik lands an inside leg kick. Pavlovich answers. The Russian paws with his jab, hoping to exploit his reach advantage. He follows a jab with a thudding overhand right but elects not to follow up. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Neither man looks to eager to throw midway through the round. Pavlovich flicks out his jab and steps forward behind another one-two. Rozenstruik rolls with it. Action somewhat tepid thus far. Low kicks from both men. Smith warns Pavlovich about extending his fingers. The Russian connects with an overhand right. Rozenstruik loses his balance while avoiding an overhand right and winds up on his back, pinned beneath his monstrous counterpart. Pavlovich works his ground-and-pound in half guard. Thirty seconds to go. Body-head shots from the Russian, who looks to have salted away this round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Round 2
And away we go for the second round. Rozenstruik feints a low kick and thinks better of it. Pavlovich probes with his jab. Rozenstruik down blocks a front kick to the body. Pavlovich resets, keeps his head and feet moving and hunts for potential openings. Again, neither man eager to throw. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Pavlovich steps forward with a left hook, then evades the return fire. Fans growing restless with the inactivity. Pavlovich connects with a counter right hook, drives forward and secures a takedown. He lands in half guard and throws his ground-and-pound into gear. Pavlovich swings his left hand into the Surinamese kickboxer’s head repeatedly, doing more than enough to avoid a restart. Rozenstruik going nowhere with less than a minute on the clock. Looks like he will head to the third round in a significant hole on the scorecards. Pavlovich peppers him with short punches until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Round 3
Rozenstruik likely needs a finish here. The flick jabs at one another. Pavlovich lands with a left hook. Smith asks for more action. They trade powerful left hooks. Neither man goes down. More jabs from both man. Pavlovich steps into a body lock behind an overhand right and secures a takedown. With three minutes to go, Rozenstruik’s situation has grown downright dire. He has shown no ability to get back to his feet thus far. Pavlovich works in half guard, scoring with left hands to the body and forearm strikes to the head. Rozenstruik still flat on his back at the base of his cage. Pavlovich staying busy, even though he has not yet landed anything of consequence. He mixes left hands to the body with rights to the head. Rozenstruik gets to his knees with a minute to go and finally gets back to his feet. They separate with 30 seconds on the clock. Pavlovich buckles his opponent with a counter left hook. Rozenstruik lunges in with a left hook, but the Hail Mary finish he seeks fails to materialize.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking and counter-striking ability. He notes that Sergei Pavlovich struggles against a jab, as seen in his loss to Volkov. He believes Rozenstruik's Muay Thai and patience will allow him to frustrate Pavlovich and take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Pavlovich's power and speed but thinks Rozenstruik's technique wins.
Big Brady thinks Sergei Pavlovich needs to be aggressive to win. He notes Pavlovich looked terrible against Volkov when he wasn't aggressive, but when he rushes forward he knocks people out. Brady believes if Pavlovich brings aggression, he will sleep Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the first round. He chalks up the Volkov fight to them being friends/training partners.
Connor picks Pavlovich, believing he can overwhelm Rozenstruik early with his power. He notes that Rozenstruik is a trigger counter puncher who stands with locked knees, making him vulnerable to a bull rush. Connor thinks Pavlovich's loss to Volkov was due to familiarity and that he will revert to his aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Pavlovich hesitates or tries to be technical, he will lose.
James picks Pavlovich to win by knockout in round one, but he is not confident and sees value on Rozenstruik. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to fade if he doesn't get an early KO, and that Rozenstruik has a chance to win by decision or knockout in later rounds. He mentions Rozenstruik's decision prop at +700 as a potential small play. He is undecided on betting Rozenstruik.
Rozenstruik is the technically better striker and will use his mobility, straight jabs, and counters to pick apart Pavlovich's wild combinations. He is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round TKO. He believes Pavlovich has a great chin and will remind people he is a top heavyweight. He notes Rozenstruik was finished by Volkov and that Pavlovich took a beating from Volkov but never got finished. He expects a dominant performance.
Zane picks Rozenstruik, arguing that Pavlovich is a one-dimensional brawler who has not evolved. He notes that Rozenstruik is a durable counter puncher who can settle in and pick apart aggressive fighters. Zane believes Pavlovich's lack of a range game and poor fight IQ will be exposed, and that Rozenstruik's trigger countering will catch him coming in.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 46 of 134 | 34% | 46 of 134 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 83 of 159 | 52% | 83 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 16 of 52 | 30% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 46 of 134 | 34% | 38 of 120 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 134 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 83 of 159 | 52% | 35 of 89 | 16 of 28 | 32 of 42 | 83 of 159 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 43 | 34% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 50 | 52% | 9 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 15 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 10 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 31 of 55 | 56% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 16 of 19 | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 16 of 52 | 30% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 54 | 48% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
The high-stakes, all-Russian, heavyweight co-main event kicks off, with Jason Herzog on referee duty. Volkov immediately goes to his front kick up the middle, trying to keep the shorter power puncher at bay. Pavlovich stalks, flicking out his long jab and looking for opportunities to spring into range on his towering foe. Pavlovich comes inside and is met by a hard jab, then lands on of his own. Volkov plants a kick on the liver, and ducks a vicious overhand counter. Volkov throws a jab to the body and Pavlovich comes back with a right high kick that lands on the shoulder. Under 90 seconds to go in the round, and everything is still tense, tentative; it feels as though either man might land a fight-ending blow at any moment. Volkov reaches out with a southpaw left cross and slips the counter. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov is again mobile, throwing single and double jabs while sliding around the outside of the cage. A huge overhand right from Pavlovich misses just short. Volkov switches stances freely, using kicks to disguise them. Pavlovich throws a high kick that bounces off Volkov’s shoulder as he turns. Pavlovich is stalking, trying to cut off the cage. He is bleeding from the bridge of the nose, thanks to the reliable jab and one-two of Volkov. Volkov reaches out with a slow kick that slaps off the arms, then retreats as Pavlovich surges forward with punches. Volkov throws his teep up the middle, the ball of his foot connecting with the midsection of Pavlovich. Pavlovich catches Volkov with a big right hand that causes him to stagger. Volkov seems to recover, however, moving laterally and avoiding any follow-up. Volkov connects with a standing hammerfist. Pavlovich continues to follow, but can’t land anything of consequence before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 3
Round 3 opens as the first two did, with Volkov in southpaw, moving laterally around the outside as orthodox Pavlovich gives chase. The face of Pavlovich is showing the wear of two good rounds of patient, methodical jabs and crosses from his countryman. Pavlovich eats a jab and lunges in with a big right hand that doesn’t quite land squarely. Volkov sticks Pavlovich with a lead right hand and eats a three-piece combo in return. Volkov looks loose, throwing hard punches and willingly engaging, despite likely being ahead on the cards. His corner is audibly screaming at him. Halfway through the round, the pace has settled back down, and Pavlovich is plodding forward, walking right into the push kick and jab of Volkov. Pavlovich explodes forwards with a pair of punches that are mostly parried. Pavlovich dips and drives Volkov to the cage, perhaps looking for a takedown, but gives up on the attempt with 30 seconds to go. Pavlovich comes forward and punches the body, and catches Volkov cleanly on the shin at the 10-second clapper. Volkov eats it like a blini, returning fire with a head kick. The final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Sergei Pavlovich via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Volkov, citing his height, reach, experience, and well-rounded game. He thinks Volkov will slow the pace, lean on Pavlovic, and grind out a win. He notes Pavlovic is a powerful boxer but lacks cardio and wrestling. He believes the friendship between them will lead to a feeling-out process, making the over 1.5 rounds a good bet. He placed a bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his devastating power and Volkov's admission that Pavlovich hurts him in sparring. He notes that if Volkov tries to wrestle, it's not his game, and striking with Pavlovich is dangerous. Brady expects Pavlovich to swarm and finish early.
Cody picks Volkov as an underdog, highlighting his reach, counter-striking, and cardio advantage. He believes Volkov can use kicks to keep distance, time Pavlovich's charges with counters, and potentially take the fight to the ground where Pavlovich is vulnerable. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to walk straight in with his hands down.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Volkov as the underdog, citing Pavlovich's lack of experience past round one in the UFC and potential cardio issues. He believes Volkov can use his reach, jabs, and teeps to pick Pavlovich apart if he survives the early onslaught. However, he is hesitant because Pavlovich's power could end the fight early.
Jacob picks Volkov, noting he doesn't lose to strikers and knows how to keep range and mix in takedowns. He worries about the friendship angle potentially leading to a sparring match, but thinks if Pavlovic pulls punches, Volkov wins. He also notes Pavlovic looks jacked but that might work against his cardio. He advises staying away from betting on this fight entirely.
JP is a Volkov hater and confidently picks Pavlovich by KO/TKO, citing Pavlovich's wins over Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. He expects Pavlovich to clip Volkov early. Brevan disagrees, picking Volkov by decision, arguing that Volkov's size, chin, and experience will take Pavlovich into deep waters. He notes Volkov's technical striking and ability to survive round one. The hosts have opposing picks.
Paul agrees with the underdog pick, citing Volkov's length, experience, and submission threat. He notes that Pavlovich is a battering ram but has shown vulnerability when taken down, as seen against Aspinall. Paul believes Volkov can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Alexander Volkov, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Volkov's toughness and kicking game, especially against plodding opponents, but believes Pavlovich's power and pressure will eventually catch Volkov against the cage. He notes that Volkov tends to back up and shell up, which could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Pavlovich's reach and head-hunting style are threats, but admits Volkov is a live underdog and the odds should be closer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-118), Pavlovich (-102)
Round 1
The interim heavyweight strap looms, while current champ Jon Jones is on the mend from shoulder surgery. It is unclear if the winner of this fight will face the victor between the rescheduled Jones-Stipe Miocic tilt that may happen next year, as a lot of factors remain. This silver medal will be vied for by a pair of finishers that have each claimed six victories opposite a single defeat in the UFC thus far, and in those 14 fights, only Aspinall (13-3, 6-1 UFC) has reached Round 2. Once. The betting line that Pavlovich (18-1, 6-1 UFC) and Aspinall reach the final bell is currently around -1400, although that same prop for Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis last week was an astounding -3500, and everyone knows what happened. This is MMA, where anything can and often does happen. The fighters share an embrace when brought together, and referee Dan Miragliotta takes a deep breath. Pavlovich keeps his left hand out early to measure, and Aspinall kicks the lead leg in a hurry. Aspinall splits the guard with a front kick that just grazes the midsection, and a kick is checked by Pavlovich. A flurry from the Russian dislodges Aspinall’s mouthpiece, and he appears surprised at the power that came his way as he resets it. Pavlovich blocks a high kick and crowds his man with an overhand right that connects and hurts Pavlovich. Aspinall reaches out with a left, and follows with a momentous right hook that collides square into the temple. Pavlovich’s eyes go wide as his balance gives out, and he slowly collapses to his back like a flan in a cupboard. Confidence through the roof, Aspinall pounces, and he completely hammers the nail with three hammerfists before Miragliotta reaches him to shove the new champion off of the fallen Russian. Aspinall has done it, becoming the third Brit to claim a UFC belt, and joining Michael Bisping and Leon Edwards. What a night of fights so far, and there is one more championship to go.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Sergei Pavlovich R1 1:09 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aspinall, citing his well-roundedness and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Pavlovich has insane power but is untested in later rounds and against takedowns. He thinks Aspinall's wrestling and BJJ will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the even odds and volatility.
Big Brady slightly leans Tom Aspinall, citing his multiple paths to victory. He notes Aspinall has a significant advantage on the ground with his BJJ and ground-and-pound, while Pavlovich has shown nothing off his back. However, he acknowledges Pavlovich's terrifying power and that Aspinall must get the fight to the mat. Brady says he probably won't bet the moneyline but might look at a prop.
Cody leans Pavlovich, citing Aspinall's questionable cardio after the first round and his knee injury history. He thinks Pavlovich's power and pressure will be too much, and that Aspinall hasn't proven he can go into deep waters. He notes Pavlovich's training partners praise his cardio, and he believes Pavlovich will land something big and take over.
James picks Tom Aspinall, believing he should be a decent favorite despite the even line. He sees the striking as roughly 50/50, but gives Aspinall 80% of the grappling upside. He notes Pavlovich's takedown defense is untested and Aspinall has athletic takedowns. He acknowledges the short notice for Aspinall but thinks it matters less at heavyweight. He sees Aspinall having more paths to win: decision, submission, or knockout.
Aspinall's speed, agility, and athleticism will be key. He can land a straight right or secure a takedown and dominate from top position. Pavlovich's grappling vulnerability was exposed by Overeem. Aspinall's physicality will allow him to snatch the victory. Expects a finish, calling it round two. Short notice is less of a concern at heavyweight.
Paul is a believer in Pavlovich, having taken him at +135 earlier. He dismisses the Overeem loss as a debut five years ago, noting Pavlovich has improved immensely at Eagles MMA. He thinks Pavlovich's takedown defense and devastating power make him a problem, and that Aspinall's cardio and durability are unproven.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior movement and fight IQ. He notes that Pavlovich's opponents have stood still, while Aspinall will use footwork, feints, and takedown threats. He predicts Aspinall will get a takedown and submit Pavlovich in round two, possibly with a rear-naked choke. He also mentions Pavlovich's high activity may lead to accumulated injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 14 of 56 | 25% | 14 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 14 of 56 | 25% | 14 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 36 of 85 | 42% | 30 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 14 of 56 | 25% | 11 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 36 of 85 | 42% | 30 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 14 of 56 | 25% | 11 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blaydes (-170), Pavlovich (+145)
Round 1
The main event is upon us, and it is a heavyweight clash that should not last too terribly long. In the one corner, Russian knockout artist Pavlovich (17-1, 5-1 UFC) plies his trade in search of his sixth straight stoppage victory due to strikes. In the other, Blaydes (17-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) seeks his long-awaited championship opportunity, and he answers with 71% of his own wins coming by some variation of knockout. In their combined 34 pro wins, neither man has performed a submission, and it is unlikely to come in this five-rounder. Before trying to knock the other’s melon into the third row, they respectfully touch ‘em up and exchange a stoic nod. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for what comes next…or so he hopes. Blaydes sticks out a jab and a sweeping leg kick in the opening seconds, and Pavlovich is out of the way from that and a subsequent right hand. Pavlovich fires off a right hand, and even hitting the guard, it gets Blaydes’ attention. Pavlovich comes out swinging, and Blaydes counters with a solid check right hook. Blaydes lands two more when Pavlovich is throwing recklessly, making the Russian start to brawl. Pavlovich drills Blaydes with a left, and Blaydes gives it right back without batting an eye. The chins are tested and both make it through the first surges. Blaydes fires off a leg kick after a jab, and it makes Pavlovich drag it out of the way to take some of the sting out of it. Blaydes kicks on the outside to stop this, and Pavlovich winds up with a bomb of a right hand that glances off the side of the head. Blaydes hits the deck, but he pushes up and springs to his feet, seemingly flash knocked down and not hurt. Blaydes attacks the leg, and Pavlovich rocks him with a jab. Pavlovich lets go with a long series of punches, and Blaydes takes several of them flush, gives a few back, and shoots for a takedown. The Russian shuts him down and knocks him back to the wall, where he gets off right hands but his jab might be the one affecting Blaydes more.
Blaydes backpedals, and Pavlovich splits the guard with a shovel uppercut of a right hand. As Pavlovich continues throwing caution to the wind and hurting Blaydes again and again with his fists, a sharp right hand drops Blaydes to the floor. Knowing the finish is right around the corner, Pavlovich punches Blaydes out with four more punishing left hands, and Goddard has seen enough.
This is a major statement for Pavlovich, who has now racked up six straight first-round knockouts – a UFC record at least in the modern era when fights lasted more than one round. Pavlovich very confidently asks where his belt is, and challenges Jon Jones and any other top heavyweight to take him down. If he gets the next crack at the heavyweight crown, we will absolutely be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Curtis Blaydes R1 3:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes because of his elite wrestling, which he believes will be the deciding factor. He notes that Blaydes averages over six takedowns per fight and has fast, clean entries. He acknowledges Pavlovich's dangerous striking and knockout power, but thinks Blaydes can survive the early rounds and then take over with wrestling. He mentions Blaydes' three knockout losses but still favors him. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, specifically in the first two minutes. He notes that Pavlovich is very live to starch Blaydes early if Blaydes tries to strike. Blaydes has a clear path to victory via takedown, but if he doesn't shoot immediately, Pavlovich's power could end the fight. Brady thinks it's a 50/50 fight but leans Pavlovich because of his knockout power and Blaydes's tendency to fall in love with striking. He also mentions Pavlovich's poor ground game from past fights, but believes the knockout comes first.
Cody picks Pavlovich, emphasizing his first-round knockout streak and the fact that his only UFC loss was to Overeem in his debut at age 26. He argues Pavlovich has improved since then, trains at Tiger Muay Thai, and has a wrestling background. Cody criticizes Blaydes for sometimes choosing to strike instead of wrestling, as seen against Lewis and Daukaus, and notes that even when Blaydes gets takedowns, he doesn't always do damage. He believes Pavlovich can get back to his feet and land a knockout.
Connor picks Blaydes confidently, arguing that Blaydes does something no other heavyweight does: wrestle with diverse takedowns and control. He points out that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent, as shown when Overeem took him down and he didn't know what to do. He also notes that Blaydes is durable and has weathered big shots before, and that Pavlovich's striking falls apart when he's not winning.
Curtis Blaydes has improved striking and distance management, using kicks and combinations to avoid trading in the pocket. He has the wrestling advantage and can take the fight to the ground, where he can control or finish. Pavlovich is a dangerous power puncher but tends to thrive when opponents exchange with him; Blaydes will not do that. The only loss on Pavlovich's record came via Alistair Overeem, who now trains with Blaydes, giving Blaydes insight. Blaydes is the more well-rounded fighter with better tools and experience.
Paul picks Pavlovich as a plus money underdog, citing his first-round finishing streak and heavy hands. He acknowledges Blaydes' wrestling and cardio advantages but believes Pavlovich's power and youth (30 at heavyweight) give him a real chance. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling base and training at Tiger Muay Thai, and points out that Blaydes has been knocked out by power punchers before. Paul also mentions a prop for Pavlovich to win in round one at plus 300.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich after initially leaning toward Blaydes. He rewatched Blaydes' fights and found them less impressive, noting Blaydes is skittish against powerful strikers like Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He believes Pavlovich's takedown defense has improved and that he will hurt Blaydes on the feet, stuff takedowns, and finish him. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Blaydes despite acknowledging Pavlovich's knockout power. He notes that Blaydes is a diverse wrestler who can take down and control heavyweights, and that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent as seen against Overeem. However, he is hesitant because Blaydes has been knocked out before and often spends time standing early, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Pavlovich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 2 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 2 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-210), Tuivasa (+180)
Round 1
Referee Dan Miragliotta will have his work cut out for him in this heavyweight collision, as Tuivasa (14-4, 8-4 UFC) and Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC) combine for 26 knockouts in their 30 wins, with no submissions to either’s credit. The triumphant big man here might be the closest of all the 30 competitors this evening to a title shot, and this potential brawl is preceded by a clap of hands and a hug. Pavlovich moves in to the center of the cage, pushing out jabs, and he lifts his leg to avoid a low kick. The Russian walks forward to throw hands, and he stings Tuivasa with a few punches, only for “Bam Bam” to swing right back and hurt Pavlovich. The power of Pavlovich cannot be denied, as he blasts Tuivasa with ferocious punches, tearing Tuivasa’s skin open with the impact of his fists. Tuivasa hit the ground, and springs back up while blood starts pouring out of the left side of his eye, and Pavlovich’s accurate and straight punches find the mark while Tuivasa swings wildly.
Tuivasa wings a left hand, and Pavlovich tags his man twice and drills an uppercut that knocks the Aussie clear off his feet. When Tuivasa hits the mat on his face, Pavlovich drives home a few academic punches to make sure the job is done, and Tuivasa continues to leak crimson fluid all over the mat while Pavlovich beats on him. Miragliotta intervenes when it is clear that Tuivasa is done here and teetering on the edge of consciousness
, and Pavlovich may have just earned the biggest win of his career and placed himself right in top contendership position. This performance unquestionably sends a message to the rest of the heavyweights that this brick-fisted Russian is a force to be reckoned with.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Tai Tuivasa R1 0:54 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa, citing his better leg kicks and chin. He notes both fighters have zero takedowns in the UFC, so it will be a striking match. He thinks Tuivasa's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges heavyweights can end anytime. He won't bet either side but recommends using Monkey Knife Fight's Knockout Kings prop because one of them will get knocked out.
Big Brady picks Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his nine-inch reach advantage, power, and forward pressure. He notes Tuivasa has been knocked out before and Pavlovich has five first-round finishes in the UFC. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Pavlovich lands first.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Tuivasa's durability, power, and ability to weather early storms. He notes Pavlovich has never been tested past the first round and questions his cardio. He sees Tuivasa as a live dog with a legitimate shot.
Daniel Levi leans Pavlovich based on momentum, massive reach advantage (84 inches), and confidence. He acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power and the possibility of an upset, especially if the fight extends past the first round. He is not betting but expects an entertaining stand-up war.
The host leans towards Pavlovich, believing he has more paths to victory, including potentially using takedowns. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at plus 170, thinking both fighters will respect each other's power and the fight could go into the second or third round. He is cautious about betting heavy on a heavyweight fight due to volatility.
Paul loves Tuivasa at plus money. He notes Pavlovich's low-level competition and questions his cardio. He thinks Tuivasa's durability and power make him live, especially if the fight goes past the first round. He also mentions the under 5 minutes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich despite loving Tai Tuivasa. He notes Tuivasa took heavy damage against Cyril Gane and is returning too soon, while Pavlovich has devastating power and a huge reach advantage (84 inches vs 75). He predicts Pavlovich will land a big shot and finish Tuivasa in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-125), Lewis (+105)
Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when this featured heavyweight fight was booked. One man holds the promotion’s all-time knockout record, while the other is a sturdy Russian striker who has won his last three with his fists. Lewis (26-9, 1 NC; 17-7 UFC) who likely will end the night with the biggest pop from the crowd, will try to get back on track after a stunning knockout against the stoic Pavlovich (15-1, 3-1 UFC). Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to keep his wits about him at all times, lest he get clipped by an errant blow, as fighters sporting knockout rates of 80% or higher are about to clash in front of his eyes. Lewis trots out of his corner and offers a glove touch, and it is accepted as the “USA” chants rain down in support of him. Lewis starts with a leg kick, and Pavlovich strides forward and sticks out a jab. Lewis does not bite on any feints, and he scores with a big left hand. They proceed to start slugging it out, and Lewis gets rocked with a right hand on the jaw. The Russian, seeing that Lewis got tagged, cracks Lewis with an uppercut and a right hand that knocks Lewis face-first into the fencing. Lewis backpedals, and Pavlovich gives chase and bombards him with punches. Lewis bends over to avoid the blows, and Pavlovich slugs him with several punches to force Lewis to fall forward and bonk his head on the mat. Lewis springs right back up, and Miragliotta intervenes to stop the fight, clearly seeing something others did not see as Lewis protests the stoppage immediately. The fans are outraged by what they believe to be an early stoppage, and Lewis may have been in trouble but he appeared to have his wits about him given his incensed reaction. Regardless of the feelings on the finishing sequence, Pavlovich has just officially recorded the biggest win of his career in hostile territory. Big fights almost certainly loom for the man out of Eagles MMA.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Derrick Lewis R1 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout. He cites Pavlovich's youth, reach advantage, and high volume striking. He notes Lewis has been finished in most of his losses and Pavlovich has power. He acknowledges Lewis can never be counted out but leans toward Pavlovich landing first.
Cody leans Pavlovich, noting his physical attributes: 84-inch reach, power, and youth. He acknowledges the unknown of Pavlovich's cardio beyond the first round, as all his UFC wins are first-round finishes. He also notes that Pavlovich is a wrestler but chooses to stand and bang, which could be dangerous against Lewis. He thinks Pavlovich's speed and boxing combinations will allow him to hit Lewis before Lewis can counter. He also mentions that Lewis is on the downswing, older, and less motivated.
Daniel likes Pavlovich's youth, output, size, and momentum after three straight wins. He notes Pavlovich's 5-inch reach advantage and his ability to flow punches into kicks. He acknowledges the risk of Lewis' one-punch knockout power, calling Lewis the greatest knockout artist in heavyweight history. He mentions Lewis' age (37), back problems, and tendency to sometimes not show up. He also notes that Lewis has lost in Texas before. He bet Pavlovich at plus 100 and is riding with it, but only one unit due to the volatility.
Preet picks Lewis, believing he will land his hammer and knock out Pavlovich in the first round. He notes Lewis's nuclear power and desire to make up for his loss to Tai Tuivasa. He thinks the odds are influenced by recency bias and that Lewis's Texas pride will drive him. He calls the fight volatile and prefers plus money on either side.
Paul picks Pavlovich but calls it a coin flip. He notes that neither fighter has much appetite for grappling and they will stand in the center. He mentions that Pavlovich has taken less punishment over his career and that Lewis is open to leg kicks and body shots, but Pavlovich is a head hunter. He thinks Pavlovich's reach and power are advantages, but he wouldn't be shocked if Lewis knocks him out. He also notes that Lewis is fighting in Texas and has a history of losing at home.
The MMA Guru predicts Sergei Pavlovich by first-round KO. He expects Pavlovich to land big jabs, push Lewis against the cage with knees, and eventually land a right hand that stuns Lewis. Pavlovich will follow up with ground-and-pound for the TKO. The Guru emphasizes Pavlovich's power and pressure.
Derrick Lewis - Fight History
AJ does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that Hokit will likely wrestle Derrick Lewis, but does not state a winner.
AJ picks Hokit to win, expecting him to wrestle, get on top of Lewis, and gas him out. He questions Lewis's motivation and durability at age 41, noting Lewis looked terrible in his last fight. AJ believes Hokit's wrestling and athleticism will be too much, and he could even knock Lewis out if they strike.
AJ is a Hokit believer, citing his speed, wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. He notes that Derrick Lewis's takedown defense is poor and that Lewis looked slow and even quit in his last fight. AJ expects Hokit to take Lewis down, wear him out, and finish via ground and pound or a knockout on the feet. He mentions Hokit's hand injury might actually encourage him to wrestle, which is the smart path. AJ acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but thinks Hokit is too fast and skilled.
AJ picks Hokit to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound. He expects Hokit to wrestle early, take Lewis down, fatigue him, and finish with ground strikes. He notes Lewis's knockout power but believes Hokit's wrestling and youth will be decisive, and that Lewis's cardio is poor.
Angelo calls this his most confident spot on the card, picking Josh Hokit. He highlights Hokit's relentless pressure and no-quit attitude, contrasting it with Derrick Lewis's tendency to quit when things go wrong. He believes Hokit can wrestle or strike and will make Lewis quit.
Angelo picks Josh Hokit as his most confident pick on the card. He cites Hokit's ability to do what he wants in the fight and Derrick Lewis's tendency to quit when he can't knock someone out. He references Lewis's last fight where he turned his head and waited for the referee to stop it.
Big Brady is heavily backing Josh Hokit, expecting him to take Derrick Lewis down early and pound him out. He cites the humid weather as a factor against Lewis's cardio and believes Hokit will replicate his game plan from the Denzel Freeman fight. He loves the under 1.5 rounds and Hokit by KO props, noting he has action on those.
Big Brady picks Josh Hokit to win by first-round knockout. He expects Hokit to mix in wrestling and ground-and-pound, breaking Lewis early. He notes Lewis has been finished 10 times and quit in his last fight. However, he warns that if Hokit stands and bangs like he did against Curtis Blaydes, Lewis could knock him out. He also likes the under 7.5 minutes fight time prop.
Connor picks Hokit, citing Lewis's bad vibes and tendency to quit when things get tough. He compares Lewis to Bob Sapp, saying Lewis will try hard for a moment but if it doesn't work, he doesn't want to fight. Hokit is a nut job who will be in Lewis's face the whole time, and Connor believes Hokit's insane pressure will overwhelm Lewis.
Daniel Levi picks Josh Hokit to win, citing his weaponized cardio, pace, and well-roundedness. He notes that if Hokit can survive Lewis's early knockout power (first round and a half), he will drown Lewis with pressure and wrestling. Levi compares Hokit to a young Cain Velasquez and highlights his D1 wrestling background and NFL athleticism. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout threat but believes Hokit's durability and fight IQ will carry him to victory.
The host is extremely high on Hokit, calling him the uncrowned king of heavyweight, but notes the odds are too steep (implied 78%) to bet him. Lewis has one-shot KO power, so the host says it's dog or pass, but does not bet Lewis either.
Jacob picks Josh Hokit, noting that Derrick Lewis is always live with a punch but Hokit is faster and will come in aggressive. He believes Hokit will try to make a statement and either knock Lewis out or land enough shots to finish him early.
Lucrative James picks Josh Hokit to win via knockout in round one. He acknowledges that Hokit's aggressive showmanship could give Lewis a chance, but believes Hokit's pace, wrestling, and youth will overwhelm Lewis, who he considers past his prime and prone to quitting. He predicts Hokit will finish with ground-and-pound or a knockout.
Hokit is smart in the cage and will likely use his wrestling early to take Lewis down and ride him, similar to his fight against Uriel. Lewis has knockout power but is limited technically and older; Hokit's pace and pressure should wear him down for a TKO in round 2 or 3.
The host believes Barnett (Hokit) will wear down Lewis with wrestling, ride his back against the fence, and find a finish in round two or three by KO or submission. He suggests the round two or three prop could be fruitful.
The Guru picks Josh Hokit by first-round TKO via grappling. He believes Hokit will shoot takedowns immediately, drag Lewis down, and put a crazy pace on him. He notes Lewis has a history of quitting and that Hokit's wrestling and pressure will be too much. He expects Hokit to avoid Lewis's power by not trading on the feet and to finish with ground-and-pound against the cage.
Zane agrees, picking Hokit because Lewis is like Bob Sapp again—he'll try hard for a moment and then quit. Hokit is a genuine bonehead who goes bananas and has no defense, but his vibes are strong. Zane notes that Hokit's win over Curtis Blaydes shows he's insane, and Lewis's loss to Acosta shows he's done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 44 of 62 | 70% | 46 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 8 of 43 | 18% | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 32 of 46 | 69% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 44 of 62 | 70% | 35 of 53 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 16 |
| Derrick Lewis | 8 of 43 | 18% | 6 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 12 of 16 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 32 of 46 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 15 |
| Derrick Lewis | 4 of 21 | 19% | 3 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-355), Lewis (+280)
Round 1
Faces are about to get punched by fists the size of lunchboxes. Heavyweights ready and willing to inflict some serious damage will trade bungalows, and only one man expects to be standing when it is all said and done. Cortes-Acosta (16-2, 9-2 UFC) has momentum behind him as well as a six-year age advantage, but he has to throw down with Lewis (29-12, 1 NC; 20-10 UFC). Whether Lewis will suffer another defeat against a tough talent or spring yet another brutal upset knockout, we will know in the next 15 minutes or fewer. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of the mighty swings about to come. There is no plan for a glove touch.
Lewis says hello with a jumping front kick, and Cortes-Acosta easily swats it out of the air. Lewis then kicks low, and the Dominican ignores it and slowly walks down his opponent before kicking him back. Cortes-Acosta jabs with the ball of his foot to the stomach, and he aims a jab to the same spot before leaning back to dodge a left hook. Lewis pitches a jumping head kick that bangs into the guard, and Cortes-Acosta looks surprised that the relative elder statesman and 264-pounder can get his leg up there repeatedly. Cortes-Acosta does not stick his face in the hornet’s nest, instead peeking out behind his jab occasionally. The lack of activity has made fans immediately restless, so Lewis calms them briefly with a failed head kick while touching Cortes-Acosta at the end of a reaching right hand.
There is a lull in the action as no one wants to commit, with Lewis always threatening that he is going to unleash something but pulling back more often than not. When Lewis does lunge forward, Cortes-Acosta bats him back with a counter as he stays in his preferred range chopping away at the front wheel. Cortes-Acosta fires off a one-two that grazes the side of the dome, and Lewis’ counter goes wide. Lewis lets rip a body kick, and Cortes-Acosta catches it and hangs onto it until Lewis flops to his back. Cortes-Acosta lords over him kicking the legs, and he hangs onto an ankle to punch the body a few times. Herzog tells him to choose whether he wants to let Lewis up, and he does. Lewis gingerly gets back to his feet, and walks right into a jab. Lewis lets fly a kick, and Cortes-Acosta slips when dodging it to bounce off the cage. Lewis lashes out with looping punches, and the younger man dodges and weaves away from every one. Cortes-Acosta’s jab ends the tepid round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Round 2
The heavyweights pick up where they left off, with Cortes-Acosta probing with jabs while Lewis tries high-amplitude, generally inaccurate offense. Lewis scores a body kick in the midst of a surge, but Cortes-Acosta is no worse for wear and keeps the jab right in Lewis’ face. Lewis walks face-first into a clean right hand that surprises him, and he lumbers forward to grab hold of his foe who is out of the way. Cortes-Acosta lets him bounce off the fencing so he can keep pecking at him, and he jams the front leg with a kick. Lewis wades forward with his hands down, taking the jab on the forehead so he can close in. He lobs a big left and a bigger right, but Cortes-Acosta is already two steps ahead of him. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with his jab, and he follows one with a right hand down the pipe. “Salsa Boy” keeps probing with his flustering jab, disrupting what Lewis has to offer before it gets thrown.
Cortes-Acosta walks Lewis down fearlessly, and he rolls with a looping left hook and puts his hand in the air to signal that he dodged it. Cortes-Acosta jabs the head and body, and he leans back to take the sting out of a Lewis overhand right.
When absorbing a jab, Lewis slips and feebly falls to his back. The frustrated Lewis turns to his knees under fire, seemingly out of the fight. Lewis turtles up as the Dominican pelts him with right hands, and Herzog urges Lewis to fight on but Lewis will not.
Punches continue to mount until Herzog waves the fight off, and the building does not respond positively to the stoppage or the victor.
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Derrick Lewis R2 3:14 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism, speed, and technical striking. He acknowledges Derrick Lewis's knockout power but believes Waldo's chin and volume will carry him. He notes Waldo was rocked in his last fight but trusts his durability. He says the odds are probably accurate but warns it's a Derrick Lewis fight where anything can happen.
Big Brady highlights Waldo's durability, noting he ate bombs from Pavlovich and smiled. He thinks Lewis is knockout-or-bust and Waldo is a much better minute-winner. He expects Waldo to cruise to a decision win, as Lewis likely can't knock him out.
Cody picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant due to the price tag. He notes Waldo's jab and footwork could give Lewis problems, but worries about Waldo's tendency to be hesitant against power punchers. Cody sees Waldo winning more often than not but prefers not to lay the heavy price.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis, relying on his proven ability to change a fight with one punch or a wild technique (e.g., flying knee). He argues that Waldo Cortes Acosta is not a consistent fighter and can be drawn into brawls, as seen against Ryan Spann. Connor also notes that Lewis has a history of winning fights he's losing (e.g., Volkov, Hunt) and that his dynamism is a constant threat. However, he admits Lewis's calm has eroded in recent years.
Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant. He notes that he has been wrong about Cortes-Acosta before, picking against him in his last two fights. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and get-up game, but believes Cortes-Acosta has momentum and is coming into his own. Vreeland warns that Lewis is always dangerous and that this is a tough fight to call.
James picks Cortes-Acosta via decision, citing his superior boxing and durability. He notes Lewis is on a downtrend, often quitting when tired, and that Cortes-Acosta is smart enough to avoid Lewis's power bursts. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential prop.
The host expects Cortes Acosta to use his pesky jab and body work to slow down Derrick Lewis, eventually leading to a TKO finish. He notes Cortes Acosta's improved chin and durability, believing he can eat Lewis's best shots. However, he hesitates to play the -350 line, suggesting the method of victory might be a better bet. He predicts the fight won't go to the scorecards.
Paul picks Derrick Lewis by KO, viewing it as a system play. He acknowledges Waldo is more likely to win but believes Lewis's power is a game-changer. Paul notes Lewis's age and cardio issues but says power is the last to go, and he likes the plus money on Lewis by KO.
The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his talented hands and recent activity. He believes Derrick Lewis's one-dimensional striking will be countered, and that Lewis will quit after getting cracked. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Zane leans toward Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his youth (34) and calm, consistent approach. He notes that Derrick Lewis has lost his composure in recent fights and tends to brawl recklessly, which plays into Waldo's patient counter-striking. However, Zane acknowledges that Lewis has dynamic fight-changing power and could land a lucky shot. He also mentions that Waldo is not a consistent finisher and could be outpointed if Lewis fights smart.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-270); Lewis (+225)
Round 1
So far this year, Brazilians in UFC headliners are 0-8 against foreign adversaries—and for the sake of this math, Mackenzie Dern, born in Arizona once sporting a Valley Girl accent, is considered an American. We won’t get into the muddiness of “but Merab Dvalishvili has his American citizenship so technically he’s an American male champ” because ain't nobody got time for that. These two heavyweights sure don’t. If this goes the distance, a lot of parlay anchors will bust. Lewis (28-12, 1 NC; 19-10 UFC) is hanging on to his all-time UFC knockout lead, and he can register one more at the expense of skyscraping Brazilian slugger Teixeira (8-0, 1-0 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog will receive the final assignment of the evening, and he brings the big fellas together to bump their equally big fists together. It’s on with the show.
Teixeira moves himself to the center of the cage, and he blocks a head kick. Teixeira catches him with a left hand directly on the eye socket, and Lewis clutches at it and appears compromised. He might be playing possum, as Lewis unleashes fury in the form of a swarm of looping punches.
Backing Teixeira off with a right, it is his nuclear left hand that sends the 6-foot-7 Brazilian flying down to the floor. “The Black Beast” pounces, delivering a punishing barrage of ground-and-pound that knocks Teixeira’s head around.
Teixeira manages to stand up under fire, although he places every finger in the fence to pull on it as hard as he can to do so. Herzog waves the fight off, and Teixeira pushes on Herzog’s face and is upset about the possibly early stoppage.
The victorious Houstonian takes his shorts off, as has become his trademark, and he throws them out into the crowd. He walks over to Teixeira’s empty corner and mimes himself marking his territory like a beast. He proceeds to remove his groin cup as well, pitching it deep into the audience as there is some fan that goes home with a sweaty, stinky souvenir. Ever the classy gentlemen, he drops trou and moons the crowd. He pulls them back up to march over to UFC chief Dana White, who hands him his cell phone—it is President Donald Trump on the other end. Lewis does not share which words were exchanged, but he does remark, “USA up in this hoe.” When commentator Daniel Cormier asks him what he wants next, Lewis deftly replies “my wife” and says she will be soon subjected to some heavy ground-and-pound. What a guy. When Lewis fights next, you best believe we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Tallison Teixeira R1 0:35 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira based on size and skill, but is very hesitant due to Teixeira's lack of experience (8 fights) and first main event. He thinks Teixeira is faster and can beat Lewis to the punch, but acknowledges Lewis has one-punch power and could freeze Teixeira. He will not bet on the fight.
Big Brady acknowledges Derrick Lewis's power but thinks Tallison Teixeira is much more skilled and durable at this stage. He notes Teixeira is a BJJ black belt with great volume and power, and Lewis is hittable and has been finished often. He expects Teixeira to finish Lewis early, picking a first-round knockout.
Connor picks Teixeira based on the 'vibe' that he is a young, athletic heavyweight with basic boxing fundamentals and a powerful frame. He acknowledges that Teixeira is untested, with no fight lasting more than three minutes, and that heavyweight prospects often flame out. He compares the matchup to a coin flip, noting that Derrick Lewis can still beat anyone he doesn't respect, but Teixeira's size and aggression give him a good chance to put Lewis away early.
The host sees this as a close fight but likes the value on Lewis at +220. He believes Lewis will be the first to crack back with power against Teixeira, who hasn't faced such resistance. He expects Lewis to clip Teixeira's chin and knock him out. The pick is based on Lewis's power and the odds being favorable.
The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis as an underdog, citing Teixeira's lack of quality opponents and Lewis's experience and power. He notes Lewis has knocked out top heavyweights like Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov, and went five rounds with Jailton Almeida. He expects Lewis to mix in grappling and finish Teixeira by TKO in the second or third round, as Teixeira has been hit by lesser fighters and may struggle with the step up in competition.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Teixeira as the young heavyweight on the rise who has the size, athleticism, and basic technical game to put Derrick Lewis away. He notes that Lewis is technically a shambles with poor footwork and looping strikes, making him vulnerable to a confident, aggressive prospect. However, Zane also acknowledges the uncertainty, stating that Teixeira might just be another flash in the pan like Chris Daukas or Tai Tuivasa.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:23 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 72 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 48 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 24 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 41 of 75 | 54% | 33 of 65 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 18 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 27 of 41 | 65% | 16 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 2 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 15 of 23 | 65% | 8 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 17 of 35 | 48% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 15 of 23 | 65% | 14 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lewis (-148), Nascimento (+124)
Round 1
The UFC heard the constant cries of fans calling for more heavyweight and middleweight main events and made sure to deliver. Despite one victory in his last five go-rounds, Lewis (27-12, 1 NC; 18-10 UFC) is entering into his 12th UFC headliner. He hunts for a concussive victory to extend his knockout record with the promotion, and he has been matched up against Brazilian up-and-comer Nascimento (11-1, 1 NC; 4-1, 1 NC UFC). With seven combined decision wins in their 38 victories, referee Jason Herzog will likely be more than in-cage decoration before the heavyweight headliner is all said and done. With no bad blood between them, the two large gentlemen totaling 529 pounds are summoned to the middle of the cage to bump their extra-large gloves. It’s on with the show. Lewis says hello with a head kick, and when Nascimento comes in towards him, Lewis threatens with an inside trip takedown. Nascimento keeps to his feet as he absorbs a right hand to the side of the head, and he turns Lewis around to the floor. Lewis hits a trip and slams “Yogi Bear” to the ground. Nascimento gets right back up, and Lewis greets him with a knee to the belly. Nascimento tries to take him down in response, but Lewis chucks him to the wall and knees him a few more times for good measure. Nascimento gives him a few knees back to think about, and Lewis elbows him. Nascimento hangs his hands over the fence until Lewis breaks away, and he sneaks in a left hand on the break. Lewis takes a step back to avoid a low kick, and he fires off a jumping switch kick and a swarm of four huge punches. Nascimento ties him up, and Lewis uppercuts and elbows him. Nascimento trips Lewis up and puts him down to the ground, where he looks to get some strikes going on top. Nascimento works the body and head, and he hacks down with a pair of powerful elbows. The Brazilian hammers Lewis with a few more elbows before stepping over to half guard on the other side. Nascimento slashes with elbows until he steps over to full mount, and Lewis explodes at the right time to turn Nascimento over and put the Brazilian on his back. Nascimento clings to his man, holding on to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Round 2
The heavyweights meet in the middle, and Lewis walks through a low kick to sling two hooks. Nascimento gets off a leg kick, and he walks face-first into a huge right hook from “The Black Beast.” Lewis slugs away until the two end up against the wall, and Nascimento holds on to prevent further offense. Lewis thinks about another takedown as they knee one another in the tie-up, and they jockey for position on the fence. Lewis tries to throw his foe down, but Nascimento keeps his balance and stays upright. Nascimento touches Lewis four times, and Lewis drills him with one far more powerful uppercut. Lewis flirts with another trip, and he lets go of the clinch to unleash a series of hammers. Lewis blasts Nascimento with six punches, and Nascimento desperately clings to him to stop him from landing more. Lewis gets enough space to slash an elbow up top, and he leans on Nascimento. Lewis elbows Nascimento and clobbers the Brazilian with some more heavy punches, and he tries a trip but falls over and gives up his back. Nascimento circles around to take his back, and he gets a hook in. Lewis hand-fights to prevent a submission from coming together, and they turn at the same time so that Lewis is on his back while Nascimento is in half guard. Nascimento grinds down with his elbow immediately, and he sits up and slams it down on Lewis’ face a few times. Nascimento remains on top until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Round 3
The heavyweights lumber towards one another, and Lewis tosses out a slow low kick and a one-two that all comes up short. A jumping switch kick from “The Black Beast” slaps into the side, and he measures himself and jumps with a knee. This time, Nascimento is ready for this and counters.
Lewis gathers himself and unleashes hell with a monstrous one-two that separates Nascimento from his senses. Nascimento, barely still conscious, clings to Lewis’ leg in an attempt to show signs of life to Herzog. Lewis hammerfists Nascimento, turning a bit so that he can get a better angle and pound the fight out with vicious power punches.
After around a dozen punctuating blows, Herzog has seen enough, and the UFC’s all-time knockout leader has just gained one more on his mighty ledger. Lewis drops down to his celebratory predator position, and takes his shorts off and fans Nascimento with them. Lewis flops to his back, and he takes his cup out of his undergarments and throws it at the media row—an undisclosed media member catches the groin cup, and he will now have to wash his hands thoroughly. Lewis is not done yet, as he motions to the crowd that he wants to take off his last remaining garb of clothing. After tossing his gloves into the audience, he pulls his shorts down to moon the fans. In his triumphant post-fight interview, Lewis says he’s “getting too old for this s--t” and that commentator Michael Bisping promised him a drink six years ago. Bisping tells Lewis that drinks on him tonight. Next week, the UFC takes back to the Apex, and we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Rodrigo Nascimento R3 0:49 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento as an underdog, expecting him to grapple heavily and win a boring decision. He notes Nascimento's path to victory is closing distance, holding Lewis against the cage, and taking him down. He acknowledges Lewis's power and durability but believes Nascimento can fight a perfect 25 minutes. He is surprised Lewis is the favorite given his 1-4 record in his last five.
Big Brady picks Derrick Lewis to knock out Rodrigo Nascimento in the first round. He notes that Lewis typically picks against Lewis but believes Nascimento is unimpressive, having gone life-and-death with Dontale Mayes and taken Alexey Oleinik to a split decision. He thinks Lewis just needs one big shot and that Nascimento is hittable. He questions if Nascimento will wrestle, as he didn't against Mayes, but expects Lewis to land a knockout.
Cody picks Derrick Lewis, citing Lewis's insane power and ability to get up from takedowns despite a wonky get-up game. He notes that Lewis has a history of losing early rounds but finishing late, as seen against Volkov and Pesta. He believes Nascimento is slow, not durable, and lacks the wrestling to keep Lewis down. Cody suggests Lewis by KO is the most likely outcome but recommends the moneyline for safety.
Daniel Vreeland picks Derrick Lewis, citing his status as the all-time KO leader in the UFC and his ability to explode up from bad positions. He notes that Lewis has to win by knockout, but he leads the UFC in that category. He also mentions that Nascimento has shown heart but that Lewis doesn't often give second chances.
The host picks Nascimento to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lewis is knockout-or-bust and that Nascimento's takedown game and top control should be decisive. He expects Nascimento to get the fight to the ground and find a finish. He advises against betting Lewis as a favorite and suggests waiting for a better number on Nascimento.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Derrick Lewis. He emphasizes that Lewis can lose early rounds but still knock out opponents late, referencing the Volkov and Pesta fights. He notes that Nascimento has poor takedown accuracy (33%) and has struggled against lesser competition. Paul suggests that if Lewis gets taken down early, the live betting line could offer value. He recommends the moneyline over prop bets due to the uncertainty of round.
The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis over Rodrigo Nascimento, arguing that Nascimento has never succeeded in grappling against any opponent and that his only win is against Alan Baudot (overturned). He notes that Lewis has been in big spots while this is Nascimento's first main event. He dismisses Nascimento's chances on the feet, saying if you think he'll succeed there, you're guessing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 120 of 153 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 | 1 | 21:10 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 27 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 38 of 56 | 67% | 32 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 8 | 30 of 41 |
| Derrick Lewis | 20 of 39 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 19 of 29 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 16 of 21 |
| Derrick Lewis | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)
Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.
James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.
Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-215), Lewis (+185)
Round 1
One day ago, this heavyweight slobberknocker that will almost certainly end in either a violent knockout or some serious huffing and puffing – possibly both – is now sitting pretty as the “Featured Fight of the Night” due to the cancelation of the Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira contest. Hunting for his first win since 2021, Lewis (26-11, 1 NC; 17-9 UFC) still holds the UFC’s all-time knockout record, although Matt Brown tied it with him. He draws fellow knockout artist Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1, 10-6 UFC), and the structural integrity of the cage will be tested when these big men get after it. They lumber towards one another, not offering a glove touch, and referee Dan Miragliotta is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Lewis shockingly leaps in the air, blasting Rogerio de Lima in the chops with a flying knee. Rogerio de Lima collapses to the ground, and Lewis jumps on top and starts hammering him with vicious ground-and-pound. Rogerio de Lima considers hunting for leglock while trying to survive, but he is in a bad, bad way. Lewis continues slugging him on the face and side of the head, and Rogerio de Lima bails on any possible sub setup and just looks to keep it together. Rogerio de Lima turns to his knees, and the writing may be on the wall here. “The Black Beast” continues swarming Rogerio de Lima with everything he has, and Miragliotta has no choice but to call the fight. Lewis unmounts his defeated opponent, takes his shorts off and starts gleefully running around the cage. He proceeds, in just his underpants, to triumphantly motion the crotch chop several times. Lewis jumps on the cage, happy as can be, celebrating in vintage Derrick Lewis fashion. The UFC’s knockout record now singularly sits in the lap of Lewis, who tells commentator Joe Rogan that his contract is now up and that he hopes to be re-signed by the promotion. If not, as he says, “it is what it is.” The rest of the top-notch post-fight remarks cannot be done justice by a simple play-by-play writeup, and must be heard.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Marcos Rogerio de Lima R1 0:33 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Marcos Rogério de Lima, stating he is better everywhere except power. He notes that Derrick Lewis is always dangerous with his knockout power, but believes Lima's wrestling, BJJ, and leg kicks will be too much. He placed a 1-unit bet at -129 and notes the line has already moved to -190.
Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round TKO via leg kicks. He argues de Lima has more paths to victory: knockout to the head, leg kick TKO, or submission. He questions Derrick Lewis's durability, cardio, and mentality, noting Lewis has been finished early in recent fights. He expects de Lima's leg kicks to shut down Lewis quickly.
Cody picks Lewis by KO, noting Lewis's power and ability to come from behind. He acknowledges Lewis's losing streak but points out the level of competition (Curtis Blaydes, Serghei Spivac, etc.) is much higher than de Lima's wins. He believes de Lima's cardio and chin are suspect, especially at altitude, and Lewis's heart and power will prevail. He took a small bet on Lewis by KO at +270.
James believes de Lima should be a sizable favorite, as Lewis is past his prime and has lost four of his last five. He notes de Lima's leg kicks are a key weapon and that Lewis has poor cardio and doesn't like leg kicks. He expects de Lima to land leg kicks early and possibly finish Lewis, though he acknowledges de Lima also gasses.
De Lima is on a good run and has power and leg kicks to slow Lewis down. He can also take Lewis down and smash him from top position. Lewis is on a losing streak and seems to have slowed down at 38. De Lima should be aggressive early to avoid Lewis's late power. I'm leaning on de Lima under 2.5 rounds.
Paul also picks Lewis, emphasizing the talent gap: de Lima's wins are over lower-tier heavyweights while Lewis has fought top contenders. He notes de Lima's history of quitting under adversity (e.g., tapping to a forearm choke against Romanov). He believes Lewis's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power will be decisive, especially at altitude where de Lima's cardio will falter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivak (-230), Lewis (+195)
Round 1
The heavyweight main event is set to go, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. Both big men are in orthodox stance. Spivak inches forward with feints, and when Lewis steps in to throw, Spivak uses a beautiful scarf throw to put him down. Spivak is in side control, looking for a choke, then moves to the back and throws heavy punches. Goddard looks on, giving Lewis time to work, and Lewis stands back up, only to be hurled down again. Lewis gets back to his feet and Spivak throws him again, with Lewis landing right on his head. Lewis gets back up and Spivak repeats the cycle yet once more. This time, Spivak tries for an arm-triangle and gets it with minimal resistance. He squeezes and Lewis taps. Complete domination on the ground by Sergey Spivak.
The Official Result
Sergey Spivak def. Derrick Lewis R1 3:05 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.
Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.
Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.
Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-125), Lewis (+105)
Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when this featured heavyweight fight was booked. One man holds the promotion’s all-time knockout record, while the other is a sturdy Russian striker who has won his last three with his fists. Lewis (26-9, 1 NC; 17-7 UFC) who likely will end the night with the biggest pop from the crowd, will try to get back on track after a stunning knockout against the stoic Pavlovich (15-1, 3-1 UFC). Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to keep his wits about him at all times, lest he get clipped by an errant blow, as fighters sporting knockout rates of 80% or higher are about to clash in front of his eyes. Lewis trots out of his corner and offers a glove touch, and it is accepted as the “USA” chants rain down in support of him. Lewis starts with a leg kick, and Pavlovich strides forward and sticks out a jab. Lewis does not bite on any feints, and he scores with a big left hand. They proceed to start slugging it out, and Lewis gets rocked with a right hand on the jaw. The Russian, seeing that Lewis got tagged, cracks Lewis with an uppercut and a right hand that knocks Lewis face-first into the fencing. Lewis backpedals, and Pavlovich gives chase and bombards him with punches. Lewis bends over to avoid the blows, and Pavlovich slugs him with several punches to force Lewis to fall forward and bonk his head on the mat. Lewis springs right back up, and Miragliotta intervenes to stop the fight, clearly seeing something others did not see as Lewis protests the stoppage immediately. The fans are outraged by what they believe to be an early stoppage, and Lewis may have been in trouble but he appeared to have his wits about him given his incensed reaction. Regardless of the feelings on the finishing sequence, Pavlovich has just officially recorded the biggest win of his career in hostile territory. Big fights almost certainly loom for the man out of Eagles MMA.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Derrick Lewis R1 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout. He cites Pavlovich's youth, reach advantage, and high volume striking. He notes Lewis has been finished in most of his losses and Pavlovich has power. He acknowledges Lewis can never be counted out but leans toward Pavlovich landing first.
Cody leans Pavlovich, noting his physical attributes: 84-inch reach, power, and youth. He acknowledges the unknown of Pavlovich's cardio beyond the first round, as all his UFC wins are first-round finishes. He also notes that Pavlovich is a wrestler but chooses to stand and bang, which could be dangerous against Lewis. He thinks Pavlovich's speed and boxing combinations will allow him to hit Lewis before Lewis can counter. He also mentions that Lewis is on the downswing, older, and less motivated.
Daniel likes Pavlovich's youth, output, size, and momentum after three straight wins. He notes Pavlovich's 5-inch reach advantage and his ability to flow punches into kicks. He acknowledges the risk of Lewis' one-punch knockout power, calling Lewis the greatest knockout artist in heavyweight history. He mentions Lewis' age (37), back problems, and tendency to sometimes not show up. He also notes that Lewis has lost in Texas before. He bet Pavlovich at plus 100 and is riding with it, but only one unit due to the volatility.
Preet picks Lewis, believing he will land his hammer and knock out Pavlovich in the first round. He notes Lewis's nuclear power and desire to make up for his loss to Tai Tuivasa. He thinks the odds are influenced by recency bias and that Lewis's Texas pride will drive him. He calls the fight volatile and prefers plus money on either side.
Paul picks Pavlovich but calls it a coin flip. He notes that neither fighter has much appetite for grappling and they will stand in the center. He mentions that Pavlovich has taken less punishment over his career and that Lewis is open to leg kicks and body shots, but Pavlovich is a head hunter. He thinks Pavlovich's reach and power are advantages, but he wouldn't be shocked if Lewis knocks him out. He also notes that Lewis is fighting in Texas and has a history of losing at home.
The MMA Guru predicts Sergei Pavlovich by first-round KO. He expects Pavlovich to land big jabs, push Lewis against the cage with knees, and eventually land a right hand that stuns Lewis. Pavlovich will follow up with ground-and-pound for the TKO. The Guru emphasizes Pavlovich's power and pressure.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout. He cites Pavlovich's youth, reach advantage, and high volume striking. He notes Lewis has been finished in most of his losses and Pavlovich has power. He acknowledges Lewis can never be counted out but leans toward Pavlovich landing first.
Cody leans Pavlovich, noting his physical attributes: 84-inch reach, power, and youth. He acknowledges the unknown of Pavlovich's cardio beyond the first round, as all his UFC wins are first-round finishes. He also notes that Pavlovich is a wrestler but chooses to stand and bang, which could be dangerous against Lewis. He thinks Pavlovich's speed and boxing combinations will allow him to hit Lewis before Lewis can counter. He also mentions that Lewis is on the downswing, older, and less motivated.
Daniel likes Pavlovich's youth, output, size, and momentum after three straight wins. He notes Pavlovich's 5-inch reach advantage and his ability to flow punches into kicks. He acknowledges the risk of Lewis' one-punch knockout power, calling Lewis the greatest knockout artist in heavyweight history. He mentions Lewis' age (37), back problems, and tendency to sometimes not show up. He also notes that Lewis has lost in Texas before. He bet Pavlovich at plus 100 and is riding with it, but only one unit due to the volatility.
Preet picks Lewis, believing he will land his hammer and knock out Pavlovich in the first round. He notes Lewis's nuclear power and desire to make up for his loss to Tai Tuivasa. He thinks the odds are influenced by recency bias and that Lewis's Texas pride will drive him. He calls the fight volatile and prefers plus money on either side.
Paul picks Pavlovich but calls it a coin flip. He notes that neither fighter has much appetite for grappling and they will stand in the center. He mentions that Pavlovich has taken less punishment over his career and that Lewis is open to leg kicks and body shots, but Pavlovich is a head hunter. He thinks Pavlovich's reach and power are advantages, but he wouldn't be shocked if Lewis knocks him out. He also notes that Lewis is fighting in Texas and has a history of losing at home.
The MMA Guru predicts Sergei Pavlovich by first-round KO. He expects Pavlovich to land big jabs, push Lewis against the cage with knees, and eventually land a right hand that stuns Lewis. Pavlovich will follow up with ground-and-pound for the TKO. The Guru emphasizes Pavlovich's power and pressure.
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