vs
-549 +460
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 4"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev
3.65 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.59 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.79 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Anthony Smith
3.19 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
5.04 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.44 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Magomed Ankalaev
Moneyline
BetWay -549
KO/TKO
BetRivers +210
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetWay +100
Anthony Smith
Moneyline
FanDuel +460
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Magomed Ankalaev - Fight History
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
KO R1 1:20 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 28 of 45 62% 21 of 35 3 of 6 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 28 of 45 62% 21 of 35 3 of 6 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 33
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing the rematch will be similar to the first fight. He argues that Alex Pereira's narrative about trusting his takedown defense and letting his hands go is flawed because Ankalaev almost knocked him out in the first fight. He also notes that defending takedowns is easier when that's all you focus on, and that Ankalaev now knows he can handle Pereira's power. He expects Ankalaev to win more dominantly.

"I'm going to pick Ankolia here. I don't think this fight is any different from the first one. If anything, it will be wider."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady is concerned about Pereira's age (38), potential lack of focus due to newfound wealth and lifestyle, and recent performances. He believes Ankalaev is hungrier and more dedicated. He notes that Ankalaev almost finished Pereira in the second round of their first fight and that Pereira has been hurt multiple times. He predicts Ankalaev wins by third-round knockout.

Magomed Ankalaev by third round knockout.
"I'm actually going to take Ankal alive to win this fight and Ankalive to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Connor picks Ankalaev, agreeing with Zane that Pereira's age and the way Ankalaev pressured him in the first fight are key factors. He emphasizes that Ankalaev's ability to make clutch decisions and prevent big swings, combined with Pereira's declining willingness to take risks, makes Ankalaev the likely winner. Connor also notes that Pereira's back-foot game is not strong enough to counter Ankalaev's pressure.

"Seeing the way that first fight played out, it's kind of hard not to pick uncle live."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The host expects a more violent and aggressive Pereira, which could work for or against him. He likes the under 3.5 rounds and believes Ankalaev will catch a reckless Pereira and knock him out, replicating the previous fight's success.

under 3.5 rounds, finish
"I really like the under three and a half in this matchup as I think this fight will produce a finish and I ultimately think it's going to be Ankalaev that catches a little bit of a reckless approach from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing his wrestling, boxing, and mental focus will be key. He notes Pereira's difficulty with southpaws and the likelihood that Ankalaev improves his takedown efficiency. He predicts a finish in the championship rounds.

finish in round 4 or 5
"I'm going to go with Magomed Ankalaev. I'm not going to let what I want cloud my opinion and my judgement."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev because he believes Pereira's age and stylistic progression have made him more cautious and less willing to pull the trigger. He notes that Ankalaev is adept at steering fights and maintaining a narrow lead, and that Pereira struggled to create offense when pressured in their first fight. Zane also mentions that Ankalaev has never been knocked out and has a good chin, though he acknowledges Pereira's power is always a threat.

"I am going to pick him much to the UFC's chagrin. I'm picking uncle."
WIN vs Alex Pereira
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 76 of 137 55% 97 of 159 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 94 of 180 52% 127 of 224 0 of 12 0% 0 0 5:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 16 of 34 47% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 9 of 27 33% 12 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Alex Pereira 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Alex Pereira 0 21 of 34 61% 21 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 17 of 40 42% 18 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
4 Alex Pereira 0 7 of 12 58% 23 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 24 79% 45 of 61 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:50
5 Alex Pereira 0 14 of 21 66% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 76 of 137 55% 11 of 57 17 of 25 48 of 55 69 of 130 7 of 7 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 94 of 180 52% 36 of 112 30 of 39 28 of 29 75 of 159 19 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 16 of 34 47% 0 of 11 2 of 5 14 of 18 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 9 of 27 33% 1 of 18 3 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 18 of 36 50% 3 of 16 5 of 7 10 of 13 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 29 of 53 54% 18 of 40 9 of 10 2 of 3 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Pereira 21 of 34 61% 4 of 16 2 of 3 15 of 15 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 17 of 40 42% 5 of 26 6 of 8 6 of 6 16 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Alex Pereira 7 of 12 58% 0 of 4 6 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 6 6 of 6 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 24 79% 7 of 11 6 of 7 6 of 6 7 of 11 12 of 13 0 of 0
5 Alex Pereira 14 of 21 66% 4 of 10 2 of 3 8 of 8 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 20 of 36 55% 5 of 17 6 of 10 9 of 9 14 of 30 6 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-258), Pereira (+210)

Round 1
In March, Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC; 12-1-1, 1 NC UFC) claimed the throne most expected he would sit atop by outworking Pereira (12-3, 9-2 UFC). After about seven months to prepare for the second engagement, the light heavyweight champs run it back, this time with “Poatan” as the challenger. Violence is expected to be the currency of the main event, and referee Herb Dean will be its banker. The two players are all in, and despite a bit of bad blood blossoming, they do bump their sizeable fists together. Time to spin the wheel.
Pereira rushes right out of his corner to hurl a one-two at the champion, and Ankalaev backs off and pushes off three front kicks to the chest. Pereira marches Ankalaev down, keeping him against the wall as he slaps a kick off the front leg. Ankalaev gains a little space from a swatting combination, and a second misses the mark when Pereira parries. The Brazilian works the other front leg after Ankalaev switches stances, and he clubs Ankalaev with a massive right hand. Ankalaev shoots desperately, his bell rung, and Pereira bowls him over and pounces on top of him. Pereira starts laying into Ankalaev with punches and elbows, and he jackhammers the Russian with devastating 12-to-6 elbows. Dean is paying close attention but observes Ankalaev blocking the majority of the blows so he sits back. Pereira is not about to slow down, knowing that Ankalaev is at least rocked or at best in grave danger. The fired-up “Poatan” batters and brutalizes the sitting champ, crushing him with elbows to the body and finalizing his journey with one last barrage of downward elbows. Dean steps in, and Pereira motions with both hands to the downed Ankalaev like he did in a past triumph, the “chama” version of “you see what happens, Larry!” Pereira goes to embrace his corner, and he checks on his toes that might have sustained some damage in the roughly 80 seconds of demolition.
The crowd goes wild, clearly having picked a side in this dispute and it was not the Russian. “Poatan” has the belt draped around his waist by matchmaker Mick Maynard and not UFC chief Dana White, and he puts his hand to his ear to drink in Bruce Buffer’s victory announcement. “Vengeance is never a good thing,” Pereira admits, even as he exacts revenge on a man that beat him earlier this year. He has handed Ankalaev his first defeat via strikes, and he declares that he was not surprised, mister falcons. Rather than call out former two-division champ Jon Jones, Pereira asks if the audience can give Arthur Jones, recently deceased brother of Jon Jones, a moment of silence. The entire T-Mobile Arena silences itself in an instant, giving Jones’ family and loved ones the respect they deserve. Just like that, the Ankalaev era is over, and Pereira already has a few challengers lined up in the form of Carlos Ulberg and possibly Jiri Prochazka—although the latter has already lost twice to him. The party begins, with Pereira and his crew at Teixeira MMA & Fitness dancing in the Octagon to celebrate the spectacular triumph. When Pereira defends his new belt, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Magomed Ankalaev R1 1:20 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because he trusts Pereira's durability and defensive instincts, and believes Pereira's pressure and willingness to punch in the pocket will force Ankalaev out of his comfort zone. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of complacency and inconsistency, and that Pereira's jab and combination punching are poison for counter punchers like Ankalaev. Connor acknowledges that Ankalaev has the tools to win but is not trustworthy.

Odds are dead even; Connor is surprised Ankalaev opened as favorite and thinks Pereira should be favored.
"I think I'm going to pick it. Yeah. And I think the reason is that I think Pereira can, I think, A, I'm going to trust his durability..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lucrative James believes Ankalaev's wrestling advantage is the key factor. He notes that Ankalaev has been wrestling since childhood, while Pereira's grappling is a clear weakness. He argues that if Ankalaev uses his wrestling consistently, he will dominate from top position and win the fight. He also mentions that Pereira's hype has driven the line to a pick'em, but he sees Ankalaev as the rightful favorite. He acknowledges Pereira's elite striking and power, but thinks Ankalaev's low-paced kickboxing style minimizes danger and allows him to set up takedowns.

Ankalaev via wrestling control, decision or submission; odds are pick'em (-110) but James thinks Ankalaev should be favored
"I think anal is going to be smart in this one I think he's going to use his wrestling I think he's going to take Alex Pereira down and I think he's going to dominate from top position and that …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev despite his inconsistency, believing that the threat of Pereira's power will force Ankalaev to take risks and finally put together a complete performance. He notes that Ankalaev has the technical ability to trouble Pereira, especially with his southpaw right hook and counter punching, and that he has historically risen to the occasion when pressured. However, Zane admits it's a feast-or-famine pick and that Pereira is the smarter choice.

Odds are dead even; Zane is surprised Ankalaev opened as favorite and thinks Pereira should be favored.
"I'm going to take it, but I, you know, I do think like the, the core crux of what is wrong with his game really, really makes this a feast or famine fight when it shouldn't be."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 55 of 114 48% 75 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Aleksandar Rakić 0 53 of 117 45% 59 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 34 55% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 23 of 50 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Aleksandar Rakić 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Aleksandar Rakić 0 12 of 29 41% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 55 of 114 48% 20 of 72 22 of 29 13 of 13 50 of 105 5 of 9 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 53 of 117 45% 10 of 65 9 of 12 34 of 40 50 of 111 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 34 55% 7 of 19 8 of 11 4 of 4 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 22 of 45 48% 4 of 24 3 of 4 15 of 17 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 23 of 50 46% 8 of 33 7 of 9 8 of 8 23 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 19 of 43 44% 3 of 24 3 of 5 13 of 14 18 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 30 43% 5 of 20 7 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 12 of 29 41% 3 of 17 3 of 3 6 of 9 10 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.

First leg of a villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it loses.
"mag anv has the wrestling he's got the technical striking he's just as long anv should win he is the first leg of the villain parlay a parlay that I put a full unit on and I hope it breaks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.

"I'll take ank live to win a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.

"ankle should in theory absolutely roll here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.

Ankalaev opened at -350, currently -361; Rakić opened at +288, currently +296
"I'm going to pick Rocketch mostly because though I don't think he deserves it in any philosophical sense, I do want Magomed Uncle Liev to suffer."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.

"I see ankle live winning this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.

"I am going to pick anive to win... but his fight IQ is worse"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.

Ankalaev wins by knockout
"give me anive by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.

"he's the uncrowned champ he's the best guy in the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.

Odds comment: Ankalaev nearly 4-to-1 favorite, should be 2-to-1 at most; suggests Rakić underdog value
"I'm going with Ankalaev 29-28 decision very eerily similar to the Nikita Krylov performance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.

Ankalaev opened at -350, currently -361; Rakić opened at +288, currently +296
"And Uncle Liev will win 55 strikes to 51. That's really it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)

Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.

"booking fights like uncle ayah versus below which and uncle ayah versus rackage you're just asking for lame you're asking for boring fights that nobody gets thrilled by"
WIN vs Johnny Walker
KO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 39 of 58 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Johnny Walker 0 24 of 71 33% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Johnny Walker 0 15 of 50 30% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 1 22 of 25 88% 22 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Johnny Walker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 39 of 58 67% 8 of 22 6 of 7 25 of 29 38 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1
Johnny Walker 24 of 71 33% 2 of 34 3 of 6 19 of 31 24 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 17 of 33 51% 2 of 13 2 of 3 13 of 17 17 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 15 of 50 30% 2 of 26 2 of 5 11 of 19 15 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 22 of 25 88% 6 of 9 4 of 4 12 of 12 21 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Johnny Walker 9 of 21 42% 0 of 8 1 of 1 8 of 12 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.

"I think maked ankal is going to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.

decision
"I'll take anive to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.

"ankle is clearly the pick for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.

Ankalaev by decision
"I'm just going to plug my nose and take ankle live by decision because I don't like this pre flop uh pre flop money line at all."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.

"I'm going with Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.

Ankalaev wins by KO (+400), under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Magaman alive. I'm going to pick him via KO because I think that he can get a KO on the feet and on the ground."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.

Over 1.5 rounds, Ankalaev by decision
"the official prediction is going to be on anive by decision low confidence on the decision prop but I do think that anive gets his hand raised relatively easily"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.

"we got to go with the more skillful guy that wins more often than not and ank alive is that guy"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.

Pereira by decision (prop bet)
"I find myself leaning towards Ankaliva, but I agree with you 100%. This thing's probably close uh plays out closer to even money or minus 140 minus 150 ankle of not minus 220 - 230 - 240 depending on the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.

KO
"I'm going to go Johnny Walker... I think he's going to beat him I think he has a much better finishing ability on the feet"
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
No Contest (illegal knee) R1 3:13 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 19 68% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Johnny Walker 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 19 68% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Johnny Walker 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 19 68% 7 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 7
Johnny Walker 14 of 27 51% 4 of 15 1 of 2 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 19 68% 7 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 7
Johnny Walker 14 of 27 51% 4 of 15 1 of 2 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.

"I think it's literally that simple pickwise I'm going to go with ankalia here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.

decision
"I'm going to take ink live to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.

"I think Ankalaev is goat I think he is God I think he's got all the tools and these are the kind of lines that I overplay the guy and I lose a bunch of money but I'm still going …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.

Ankalaev minus 350, Walker plus 285; mentions possibility of Walker's leg kicks and Ankalaev's inconsistency
"I do have to favor aniv I think that you know he was this close to winning the Bell... I just do think Mago Med's on a different level."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.

"I fully expect kive to just go out there and do what he does best get the better strikes off when he needs to get the better takedowns uh off when he needs to and I just expect him to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.

Walker inside the distance (+425) as a sprinkle
"I think it's dogger pass just on the pure fact that I don't know Ankalaev is going to come right out of the gate and shoot for takedowns right out of the gate"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.

Walker is a massive underdog; mentions 'I'm taking it The Underdogs that I like'
"I'm going Johnny Walker over maged analay I've got a feeling that he is going to finish magamed an kayv in a weird way"
LOSS vs Jan Błachowicz
Draw (split) (48–47, 46–48, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 55 of 117 47% 79 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 78 of 184 42% 191 of 312 2 of 10 20% 0 0 11:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 37 35% 23 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 17 of 34 50% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 48 37% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:26
4 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 19 52% 55 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 0 of 2 0% 13 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 37 48% 54 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 55 of 117 47% 19 of 71 11 of 17 25 of 29 50 of 109 5 of 7 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 78 of 184 42% 49 of 139 19 of 33 10 of 12 50 of 134 6 of 8 22 of 42
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 35 40% 3 of 20 4 of 8 7 of 7 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 43 44% 10 of 28 7 of 12 2 of 3 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 23 of 43 53% 10 of 27 3 of 4 10 of 12 18 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 37 35% 7 of 24 2 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 17 of 34 50% 5 of 19 4 of 5 8 of 10 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 48 37% 10 of 37 6 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 1
4 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 8 4 of 5 5 of 6
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.

"ankalayev is absolutely the pick he is incredible value at minus 255."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.

Ankalaev wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think ankle live takes behovich down and once he does that's probably going to be the round there... I like ankle I had to get it done and to get it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I got Uncle life winning I don't think the money Line's terrible but if I was to try to chase a prop I got a feeling he's …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.

Odds: Błachowicz opened +170, now +224; Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"So I'm taking the flyer on block of it here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.

Bet 2 units on Ankalaev moneyline at -250. Expects decision win, possibly 4-1 rounds.
"I bet on magomed and Khalif... I played magomed minus 250 I played him to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.

lock of the week play at -255
"I personally bet him as my Lachlan I play earlier this week at minus 255. I thought that was a great line because I think he's just that much better than blowovich"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I think he wins minus 255 as a favorite I don't hate it I don't love it I'll be picking him maybe I'll end up with him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.

"I'm gonna be going with yamla no magamed and Goliath winning this one options win fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.

Odds: Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"I'll take uncle live just to be patient enough and powerful enough and consistent enough to take advantage of his opportunities when he gets some out of the fight."
WIN vs Anthony Smith
TKO (punches) R2 3:09 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 46 of 79 58% 64 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Anthony Smith 0 18 of 36 50% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 20 of 41 48% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Anthony Smith 0 13 of 23 56% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 26 of 38 68% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:51
Anthony Smith 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 46 of 79 58% 31 of 60 6 of 9 9 of 10 23 of 46 1 of 1 22 of 32
Anthony Smith 18 of 36 50% 6 of 21 5 of 8 7 of 7 17 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 20 of 41 48% 9 of 26 3 of 6 8 of 9 19 of 40 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Smith 13 of 23 56% 3 of 11 4 of 6 6 of 6 12 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Magomed Ankalaev 26 of 38 68% 22 of 34 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 31
Anthony Smith 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.

"i like anka live here to win i like him to win by i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.

"i want to say this is my lock of the card... but like i don't know if it is man like i'm gonna play it i'll take it collide but like i think this is greasier than it needs to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.

"I'm gonna pick Ankalaev to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me uncle live on collab by decision over two and a half is probably the bet i would go with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.

"i think he wins probably 30 27 maybe he gets him out of there but like it's angle eye is a tough nut to crack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.

decision
"i think magamet anglia is going to win the fight as it goes on"
WIN vs Thiago Santos
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 60 of 138 43% 81 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Thiago Santos 0 78 of 155 50% 114 of 191 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 1 15 of 36 41% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 32 31% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 21 of 48 43% 36 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
5 Magomed Ankalaev 0 7 of 19 36% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 21 71% 36 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 60 of 138 43% 14 of 75 16 of 26 30 of 37 57 of 135 1 of 1 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 78 of 155 50% 33 of 94 35 of 51 10 of 10 64 of 140 12 of 13 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 21 47% 0 of 6 3 of 6 7 of 9 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 23 34% 3 of 13 4 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 15 of 36 41% 7 of 22 3 of 6 5 of 8 13 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 15 of 32 46% 6 of 18 6 of 11 3 of 3 14 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 30 60% 2 of 13 4 of 4 12 of 13 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 19 of 31 61% 7 of 17 7 of 9 5 of 5 18 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 32 31% 4 of 23 4 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 21 of 48 43% 13 of 38 8 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 45 1 of 1 2 of 2
5 Magomed Ankalaev 7 of 19 36% 1 of 11 2 of 3 4 of 5 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 15 of 21 71% 4 of 8 10 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 11 9 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.

"i have ankalive winning i think he does it with forward pressure heavy kicks that manage range and just constant takedown threats"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.

"i'm gonna say inca live wins this one actually by decision i'm gonna say he just kind of you know out points santos pretty cleanly easily"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.

Parlay with Murzakanov at -106
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.

"i think mago med and cleave is trending upwards i think that he will get a title shot at some point and i think that the new era of light heavyweights are emerging"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.

Decision prop for Ankalaev is suggested as a good play; round 4 or 5 decision if available.
"I think he is probably the best light heavyweight on planet Earth right now, and I think it's just a matter of time before he captures that gold."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.

Parlay with Murzakanov
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.

ground and pound TKO in round 2
"i'm going to trust magman angliev very patient on the fee doesn't rush his work likes to play the counter game as well which i think works against thiago santos"
Anthony Smith - Fight History
LOSS vs Zhang Mingyang
KO R1 4:03 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Zhang Mingyang 0 63 of 81 77% 76 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Zhang Mingyang 0 63 of 81 77% 76 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 63 of 81 77% 42 of 58 6 of 8 15 of 15 35 of 46 3 of 4 25 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 63 of 81 77% 42 of 58 6 of 8 15 of 15 35 of 46 3 of 4 25 of 31
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mingyang Zhang vs. Anthony Smith
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhang (-500), Smith (+380)

Round 1
The purported last dance for storied veteran Smith (38-21, 13-11 UFC) has arrived, as he plans on calling it quits at the conclusion of his 60th pro outing, win or lose. Getting the honor of facing Smith on the way out, Zhang (18-6, 2-0 UFC) is a massive betting favorite having won his last 11 bouts by first-round stoppage. If that is soon to become 12, or if Smith can pull one more rabbit out of the hat, referee Jason Herzog will be the first to know. The emotional Smith does not touch gloves before getting down to it, and everyone in the building sharply inhales ahead of what’s about to come. Zhang attempts to strike first, with a high kick that is blocked and a low kick that is not. Zhang kicks the lead leg two more times, and a third flusters Smith and forces him to engage. Smith wings punches that do not land cleanly, and Zhang kicks his front leg again. The low kicks have already done some damage, as he is preemptively lifting his leg up to defend against them. Zhang has a few punches pound into the guard, and Smith ties him up. Zhang scores short knees on the inside, and Smith leans his weight on his opponent and frames off for an elbow that never comes. Zhang escapes, and Smith follows him and walks through low kicks and elbows. Zhang wraps a stern right hand around the guard, and his leg kicks continue scoring. Smith gets off an elbow through the guard, and he is quickly answered by a low kick. Smith jams another elbow on the dome, and Zhang gives him one back and slashes open a cut on the top of his head. Blood flows fast down his head, and he shakes his head to get it out of his eyes. Smith wipes his eyes out as Zhang keeps striking, and the nasty elbows from Zhang find their home on his cheek again and again. Smith says enough is enough when it comes to those strikes, and he shoots in for a naked takedown from afar. Zhang lands a strike to the back of the head, and Smith pulls guard to drag him into the grappling world. Smith sits up, and Herzog tells Zhang he is down and not to kick or knee him in the head. Smith takes some shots, and he sits up and gets bowled over with punches and elbows that continue battering him.
Herzog tells Smith to move, eventually raising his voice to scream that he needs to do something. Giving Smith way more time than most would be, Herzog allows Zhang to beat Smith down and spray blood all over the mat. Smith shells up on his side, the damage suddenly a bit too much for him. Smith falls to his back, and Zhang clobbers him until Herzog has seen enough
. Smith sits up and calls for a bucket, and he stands up and gives a middle finger to someone in the audience. “Lionheart” marches to the cage wall and shouts down someone in the crowd, and everyone looks around confusedly while Zhang tries to calm his opponent down. Smith shakes out of it, and he raises Zhang’s arm in the air to congratulate him for crushing his final moment to shine. MMA is a cruel sport at times, but as Smith fades away, it is possible—however unlikely—that China has a new star on its hands in the form of “Mountain Tiger” and his 100% finish rate. Zhang is now a ranked fighter, while Smith takes his gloves off to complete his retirement ceremony. Whether this is his final fight or not, the choice remains in the hands of the 36-year-old former title challenger.

The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Anthony Smith R1 4:03 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, believing his power and grappling will be too much for an aging Anthony Smith. He notes that Mingyang is a grappler at core with great takedowns, and that Smith's grappling is not a threat. He is slightly nervous because Mingyang is untested, but he has him in a parlay.

Parlay with Jaqueline Amorim and Ikram Aliskerov at -150
"I think Ming Yang gets it done. I'm pretty confident in him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang, citing Anthony Smith's decline and poor reaction to punches. He expects Zhang's power to land a big shot and finish Smith early. He notes Smith has been counted out before but still favors Zhang by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Give me Jeang Mingong to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor picks Zhang because he believes Anthony Smith is a head case who has been declining and reverting to his old, losing ways. Smith's recent fights show him getting discouraged easily and running out of ideas. Zhang is a durable brawler who can soak up damage and extend exchanges, and Smith's current mental state makes him vulnerable to Zhang's pressure and power.

"I'm not picking him either. I just think, you know, he could totally win it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The host leans Mingyang with low confidence, noting that if Mingyang doesn't get a first-round KO, Smith could take over late or get a submission. He expects Mingyang to find a shot, put Smith on wobbly legs, and finish with ground and pound in the first round.

first round KO
"I am going to lean with Jen with very low confidence as I think he ends up finding that shot to put Smith on wobbly legs and follow up with some ground and pound to get him out of there …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by TKO in the first round. He is very high on Mingyang, calling him a real deal prospect with knockout power and sharp technique. He criticizes Anthony Smith's predictable style, emotional state (crying on walkout), and lack of a serious mindset. He believes Mingyang will overwhelm Smith early.

TKO round 1
"I think Jang Minyang is going to TKO him in the first round. And this is Smith's retirement fight. I'm not considering he's going to train harder for this than he has for any other fight in his career."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane picks Zhang, noting that even the worst version of Anthony Smith has the tools to beat Zhang, but Smith's emotional struggles and tendency to shut down make him unreliable. Zhang is fearless, powerful, and will fight without hesitation, which is a bad matchup for the current version of Smith. Zane also mentions that Smith's recent performances show him getting discouraged and losing focus.

"I'm not gonna pick him in the middle of all the struggles and just assume that the incredibly obvious, horrible emotional burden that he was, has carried with him into the cage before is gone."
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
TKO (elbows and punches) R2 4:46 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 121 of 162 74% 172 of 232 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 48 of 76 63% 53 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dominick Reyes 0 73 of 86 84% 119 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 121 of 162 74% 110 of 149 8 of 10 3 of 3 48 of 75 17 of 22 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 48 of 76 63% 38 of 64 8 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 73 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 73 of 86 84% 72 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 16 of 19 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.

"Anthony Smith is going to be the pick though cry about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.

"I'll take Reyes... likely third round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.

Connor mentions the odds are getting wider, with Smith at +248 to +273, and says he doesn't like those odds because Reyes' losses were bad.
"I'm gonna pick anthony smith a guy go for it. Yeah make i'll pick reas but I do not trust dominic reas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.

"I simply think that Reyes is a better fighter than Anthony Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.

"I think that would lead to Reyes touching up Smith from distance throughout the course of 15 minutes and getting his hand raised on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.

"I can't touch Dominic Reyes... it's dog or pass for me, leaning pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.

Reyes wins by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going Dominic Reyes I think Anthony Smith is terrible"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.

Zane comments on the odds, noting Reyes opened at -345 and is now -329, and says that a shocking knockout win over Jacoby does not make Reyes back.
"I think ray's is gonna hurt him and pick up a round and feel pretty good about himself... I would like to see ray as win."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 51 of 93 54% 51 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 100 of 185 54% 103 of 188 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 32 56% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 48 of 73 65% 51 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
3 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 51 of 93 54% 27 of 67 4 of 4 20 of 22 51 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 100 of 185 54% 61 of 135 12 of 16 27 of 34 65 of 132 3 of 4 32 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 18 of 32 56% 6 of 19 3 of 3 9 of 10 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 22 of 52 42% 4 of 27 4 of 6 14 of 19 21 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 11 of 16 68% 4 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 48 of 73 65% 40 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 22 2 of 2 32 of 49
3 Roman Dolidze 22 of 45 48% 17 of 40 1 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 30 of 60 50% 17 of 45 4 of 6 9 of 9 30 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.

"I'm gonna go with Roman Dolidze... I think he can win the 20 pounds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.

"I really don't have a good read on this fight... for that reason I'll just go with Anthony Smith as the dog but I could see it realistically going either way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.

KO prop at +275 mentioned
"I think Roman dedy first of all is gonna stuff any takedown that Anthony Smith throws his way and then second of all as you said he knocked out Jack her Manon... I think he's probably just gonna knock Anthony …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.

"It's me obviously I'm not picking Anthony Smith... he has no Chin left... I can very easily see him knocking Anthony Smith out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.

Dolidze wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think that we see Del end up getting a finish here by breaking Smith and winning this fight probably in the second or third round but I'd say pass all around."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.

"I do see merit in him at plus money... Anthony Smith will be the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.

"I'm going to go with Anthony Smith... I think Roman delzy is actual dog [__]"
WIN vs Vitor Petrino
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"
TKO (punches) R3 0:56 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 47 of 84 55% 52 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Anthony Smith 1 53 of 114 46% 56 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 19 of 30 63% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 20 of 40 50% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 23 of 48 47% 24 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Anthony Smith 0 23 of 58 39% 25 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 1 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 47 of 84 55% 27 of 62 14 of 16 6 of 6 46 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 53 of 114 46% 33 of 94 14 of 14 6 of 6 51 of 109 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 19 of 30 63% 9 of 19 6 of 7 4 of 4 19 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 20 of 40 50% 12 of 32 6 of 6 2 of 2 20 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 23 of 48 47% 15 of 39 7 of 8 1 of 1 22 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 23 of 58 39% 17 of 52 4 of 4 2 of 2 21 of 54 1 of 2 1 of 2
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 10 of 16 62% 4 of 10 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody likes Anthony Smith as a plus 190 underdog. He notes that Smith is taking the fight on short notice but is likely in shape due to his commentary work in Vegas. Cody highlights Smith's durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He believes Smith can survive Rountree's early onslaught and take the fight to the ground, where he has a massive grappling advantage. Cody also mentions the small Apex cage helps Smith cut off the cage and get takedowns. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Smith can outwork him in later rounds.

Smith by submission possible; small cage favors Smith's takedowns
"I think I'm going to hit some of that because again if he hits if he gets the fight to the ground I rear nak could choke is possible honestly there's a lot that could go right for us if …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)

Lucrative James calls this a 'weird ass fight' and refuses to break it down in detail. He sees Khalil potentially teeing off with leg kicks and body shots, but also notes Khalil's mental inconsistency and cardio issues. He thinks Anthony Smith could out-veteran him in later rounds with takedowns, but Smith doesn't shoot takedowns much anymore. He says it's a massive stay-away and if anything, he'd play Smith as a plus-money underdog due to volatility. He makes no pick.

if anything you just played a plus 190 on Smith
"this is a weird ass fight to me don't ask me to break this one down guys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul agrees with Cody on Anthony Smith at plus 190. He notes that Smith is likely staying in shape in Vegas and has a good chance to survive Rountree's early power. Paul points out that Smith has five-round cardio and can take a shot. He thinks Smith's grappling and experience will be key, especially if he can get the fight to the mat. Paul is not a huge Smith supporter but finds the underdog price too good to pass up.

"I hate that I agree with you but you know we were on Cody budge so let's do it again I haven't been the biggest Anthony Smith supporter whatsoever but yeah at this number it is short notice but at …"
WIN vs Ryan Spann
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 91 of 147 61% 91 of 147 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Ryan Spann 0 59 of 187 31% 62 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Smith 0 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ryan Spann 0 22 of 60 36% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Anthony Smith 0 45 of 69 65% 45 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 91 of 147 61% 44 of 92 12 of 15 35 of 40 90 of 146 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 59 of 187 31% 39 of 158 14 of 23 6 of 6 50 of 174 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 24 of 42 57% 9 of 25 1 of 1 14 of 16 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 10 of 41 24% 5 of 32 4 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Smith 22 of 36 61% 10 of 22 4 of 4 8 of 10 22 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 22 of 60 36% 16 of 52 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 47 0 of 0 9 of 13
3 Anthony Smith 45 of 69 65% 25 of 45 7 of 10 13 of 14 45 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 27 of 86 31% 18 of 74 5 of 8 4 of 4 27 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo believes Smith's best days are behind him, citing his recent loss to Johnny Walker where he was dropped and then headhunted. He thinks Spann will be too big, fast, and powerful for Smith. He has a full unit bet on Spann at -147, noting that the bet is more about Smith's decline than Spann's rise.

Full unit bet on Ryan Spann at -147
"I think that this is gonna be Ryan span all day I have a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady questions why this rematch is happening, noting Anthony Smith dominated the first fight. However, he believes Smith looks uninterested and has taken too much damage, citing his recent performances against Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He thinks Spann is dangerous everywhere and will knock out Smith in the first round, as Smith's durability is declining.

first round knockout
"give me Ryan span to knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Smith because he already beat Spann via submission and is getting plus money. He notes that Spann is a one-round fighter who fades under adversity, while Smith has better grappling and durability. Cody believes Smith can survive the early onslaught and take over later in the fight.

Smith by submission; under 1.5 rounds
"Smith beat him clean with the Striking last time and then finished the deal with the submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel picks Ryan Spann, reasoning that Spann is an athletic freak who can catch Smith early. He notes that Smith is coming off a leg break and looked terrible against Johnny Walker. He acknowledges that Smith dominated the first fight, but believes Spann's power and explosiveness give him a chance to finish early. He is not confident, calling it a lean.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span to catch him early and just get him out of there kind of a front running loaded Victory"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Anthony Smith

James picks Anthony Smith, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Smith hurt and submitted Spann in their first fight, and Spann's finishing equity drops after round one. He believes Smith is not as washed as some think and that the line is off. He also mentions Smith's historical durability and difficulty to submit.

"I'm all over the Smith side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The host recalls Smith's submission win over Spann in their first fight and believes Smith's veteran experience and confidence will allow him to replicate that performance. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and expects Smith to exchange in the pocket, hurt Spann, and submit him again. The host likes the under 1.5 rounds prop and finds Smith as a dog 'absolutely crazy'.

under 1.5 rounds
"Give me Smith as the dog which I find absolutely crazy considering this fight you know happened like two years ago not much has changed."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul initially picks Spann due to his recent wins and early explosiveness, but after Cody corrects him on the first fight result, he switches to Smith. However, his original pick was Spann, so we capture that. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and Smith is durable enough to survive.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'll pick span because he already won seems to have a bit of a grappling Edge early"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann in the rematch, believing Anthony Smith has declined physically and mentally. He notes Smith's poor physique and lack of fast-twitch fibers, comparing him to a fighter past his prime. He thinks Spann's scrambling and power will be enough, and that Smith won't land the same hook again. He predicts Spann will catch Smith and finish him, possibly in round two, leading to Smith's retirement.

Finish in round 2 predicted
"I'm gonna go Ryan span at some point catches him in this fight and puts him away maybe round two"
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 38 of 92 41% 41 of 95 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:22
Anthony Smith 0 92 of 192 47% 99 of 204 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 10 of 22 45% 12 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:22
Anthony Smith 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
2 Johnny Walker 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 31 of 59 52% 31 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Johnny Walker 0 10 of 36 27% 11 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 33 of 75 44% 40 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 38 of 92 41% 19 of 64 10 of 17 9 of 11 38 of 91 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 92 of 192 47% 32 of 117 9 of 19 51 of 56 81 of 178 6 of 8 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 10 of 22 45% 8 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 28 of 58 48% 16 of 40 3 of 7 9 of 11 19 of 48 6 of 7 3 of 3
2 Johnny Walker 18 of 34 52% 8 of 24 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 31 of 59 52% 7 of 32 4 of 7 20 of 20 31 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Johnny Walker 10 of 36 27% 3 of 21 6 of 12 1 of 3 10 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 33 of 75 44% 9 of 45 2 of 5 22 of 25 31 of 71 0 of 1 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, speed, power, and unorthodox striking. He thinks Walker is the more dangerous fighter and notes Anthony Smith may be focused on his post-fight career. He mentions Walker has only shot two takedowns in the UFC but got both, and could use that to surprise Smith. He expects the fight to go to the second round and likes the over 1.5 rounds if available.

Over 1.5 rounds if line available
"the pick's gonna be Johnny here because while he may not be the better Striker technique-wise I think he's definitely the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Big Brady sees this as a true pick'em fight, calling both fighters untrustworthy. He expects a striking fight, as Walker's takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. Brady gives Walker the power advantage and believes he can land a big knockout shot, but worries about Walker's chin. He picks Walker to knock out Smith in the first round, but calls it his least confident pick on the card.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna take Johnny Walker to land that big shot land that big knockout shot and knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant due to Smith's age and 50+ pro fights. He notes Smith's superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and his ability to survive early storms and finish late. However, he worries about Smith's leg injury and layoff, and acknowledges Walker's explosiveness and power. He sees Smith's jab and ring IQ as key advantages.

"I think I'm just gonna officially go with Anthony Smith see what I can see at Wayne's and just hope that he's fully healthy and ready to go because again him and his best better wrestling than Johnny Walker better …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith despite reservations, mainly because he dislikes Johnny Walker's move to SBG Ireland and feels it's a bad idea. He acknowledges Smith's vulnerability to larger fighters but thinks Smith's technical consistency and ability to take advantage of Walker's self-destructive tendencies could win. He notes the line is dead even and admits he might be wrong.

"I will stick with Anthony Smith just because Johnny Walker at SBG Ireland just feels like the worst idea I've ever heard in my entire life."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker despite concerns about Walker's chin and durability. He believes Walker will be winning the fight until he either gets his arm raised or gets caught, as Smith's style relies on comebacks and opportunistic finishes. Levi notes that Smith is a veteran with many finishes but does not see Smith dominating the fight; instead, he expects Walker to be ahead on the scorecards or land a knockout. He acknowledges the risk due to Walker's history of being knocked out and his tall man defense, but ultimately favors Walker's athleticism and recent focus.

"my pick is Johnny Walker you know um obviously you can't have too much confidence because you know the issues with his chin"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Smith is back at Factory X with Mark Montoya, motivated after a loss. His durability allows him to roll with Walker's shots, and he can pressure, land combinations, and counter Walker's wild striking. Smith can open up a finish via knockout or submission. Walker's durability issues and tentative moments may be exploited. Smith's experience and re-alignment with his camp are key.

"I think Smith can eventually clip him here and that might Open up The Knockout or even though the club didn't solve opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul slightly favors Anthony Smith, calling it a fair pick'em. He notes both fighters can crack and Walker is more likely to finish early, but if Smith can secure takedowns and hang around, he can capitalize. He acknowledges the volatility and question marks on both sides, but edges toward Smith due to his well-rounded game.

"I think a pickum is probably pretty fair like it's a fight with a lot of volunteer volatility a lot of question marks that you brought up on both sides but all side ever so slightly with Anthony Smith as …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker, citing his athleticism and reach advantage. He notes that Anthony Smith has looked hesitant and stiff on the feet recently, and his body appears less toned, suggesting decline. He believes Walker's momentum and finishing potential will be too much for Smith, predicting a TKO in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm gonna go with Johnny Walker over Anthony Smith... I think he'll get this one done by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Zane leans Johnny Walker based on a 'vibe pick,' feeling that Anthony Smith will be uncomfortable fighting someone as huge as Walker. He notes that Smith tends to gas and fold when things go wrong, and Walker's size and reach (6 inches longer) could bully Smith. He acknowledges Smith's technical striking but thinks Walker's athleticism and size will cause Smith to freak out.

"I'm kind of leaning Johnny Walker here. I don't even see like a super clear path to victory. I just think Smith is going to freak out."
TKO (punches) R2 3:09 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 46 of 79 58% 64 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Anthony Smith 0 18 of 36 50% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 20 of 41 48% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Anthony Smith 0 13 of 23 56% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 26 of 38 68% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:51
Anthony Smith 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 46 of 79 58% 31 of 60 6 of 9 9 of 10 23 of 46 1 of 1 22 of 32
Anthony Smith 18 of 36 50% 6 of 21 5 of 8 7 of 7 17 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 20 of 41 48% 9 of 26 3 of 6 8 of 9 19 of 40 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Smith 13 of 23 56% 3 of 11 4 of 6 6 of 6 12 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Magomed Ankalaev 26 of 38 68% 22 of 34 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 31
Anthony Smith 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.

"i like anka live here to win i like him to win by i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.

"i want to say this is my lock of the card... but like i don't know if it is man like i'm gonna play it i'll take it collide but like i think this is greasier than it needs to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.

"I'm gonna pick Ankalaev to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me uncle live on collab by decision over two and a half is probably the bet i would go with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.

"i think he wins probably 30 27 maybe he gets him out of there but like it's angle eye is a tough nut to crack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.

decision
"i think magamet anglia is going to win the fight as it goes on"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.

"i like anka live here to win i like him to win by i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.

"i want to say this is my lock of the card... but like i don't know if it is man like i'm gonna play it i'll take it collide but like i think this is greasier than it needs to be"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.

"I'm gonna pick Ankalaev to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me uncle live on collab by decision over two and a half is probably the bet i would go with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.

"i think he wins probably 30 27 maybe he gets him out of there but like it's angle eye is a tough nut to crack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.

decision
"i think magamet anglia is going to win the fight as it goes on"