UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 1"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Alex Morono
4.9 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Matthew Semelsberger
3.77 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
4.24 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
45.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Alex Morono
Moneyline
Caesars +160
KO/TKO
FanDuel +900
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
FanDuel +260
Matthew Semelsberger
Moneyline
BetWay -163
KO/TKO
BetRivers +260
Submission
BetRivers +1700
Decision
DraftKings +200
Alex Morono - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 146 27% 48 of 154 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 100 of 162 61% 134 of 214 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 16 of 38 42% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 39 of 59 66% 70 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
2 Alex Morono 0 6 of 43 13% 7 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 65 27% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 34 of 63 53% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 146 27% 37 of 138 2 of 7 1 of 1 36 of 137 4 of 9 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 100 of 162 61% 45 of 99 21 of 28 34 of 35 82 of 134 7 of 11 11 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 16 of 38 42% 13 of 33 2 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 39 of 59 66% 23 of 42 8 of 9 8 of 8 25 of 37 3 of 5 11 of 17
2 Alex Morono 6 of 43 13% 6 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 39 1 of 4 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 27 of 40 67% 9 of 18 7 of 10 11 of 12 24 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 65 27% 18 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 34 of 63 53% 13 of 39 6 of 9 15 of 15 33 of 60 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Daniil Donchenko vs. Alex Morono
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Donchenko (-550); Morono (+425)

Round 1
There is no glove touch in sight, as Morono instead leaps to engage and blasts Donchenko in the face with a huge right hand. Donchenko gathers his thoughts and starts chopping Morono’s lead leg down like a tree, aiming at Morono’s knee brace with both feet. Donchenko hurls a heavy punch salvo and kicks Morono’s leg out beneath him, and Morono scrambles upright and puts his back to the fence as the charging Donchenko clinches him. Donchenko rifles off a short elbow on the inside, and Morono retaliates with a strong right hand to break off. Donchenko hacks at the front leg with a kick, and he dances away from kicks including a wheel kick. Donchenko jabs to set up a left hand and an uppercut, snapping Morono’s head back like a Pez dispenser. Morono toughs it out, and Donchenko bears down on him with hurled fists. Donchenko’s aggression puts them into another clinch, and he looks for an elbow but can only graze the side. He lifts Morono off the ground with a knee, and just misses with an elbow on the break.
Donchenko stomp-kicks the front leg and chambers a kick on the side, and Morono counters and opens a cut on the bridge of Donchenko’s nose. Morono attempts an intercepting front kick, and Donchenko hammers him with a low kick that makes Morono hop around in pain. Donchenko reaches out with his fingers extended, and Peterson calls time to tell him to stop that. They get back to it, and Donchenko loads up on a huge right hand that staggers “The Great White.” Morono tries to step into the pocket to trade it out, and he narrowly evades a left hook that would knock out a mongoose. Donchenko blasts Morono with a pair of huge punches, knocking Morono to the mat, and he drops down vicious ground-and-pound. Several elbows land to the back of Morono’s head while Donchenko is unleashing a fury, and Morono turns over and gets his face sliced open with ground strikes from the Ukrainian. Donchenko lowers himself into the guard, and Morono threatens with an armbar from his back to give him space to turn over. When Morono gets to his knees, Donchenko pounds away with right hands. Morono survives the onslaught and works his way up, and he smashes Donchenko in the face with a shocking right hand. Morono might be out on his feet but he is still swinging, and he nails Donchenko with an elbow right before the break.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Donchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Donchenko
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Donchenko

Round 2
Morono watches the replay between rounds and laughs at his spinning attempt. The second round kicks off with Morono coming out gingerly, and it takes one kick from Donchenko to knock him to the mat. Donchenko allows him to stand back up, blood trickling down Morono’s left nostril, and Morono obliges him. Morono loads up with a fiery right hand that Donchenko ducks before seeing coming, and he tries to evade a left hook but gets caught cleanly. Rather than keep swinging, Donchenko presses the Houston native to the fence for a few seconds, with Morono looking for an attack on the break. Donchenko leans back to watch a high kick whiz past him, and he blasts the front leg of Morono and nearly takes him down again. Morono takes a kick on the inside, and he hurls a right hand forward but has nothing on his plant leg. Donchenko circles and kicks at the leg a few times, and he ducks into an uppercut and makes a face to show that he did not get hurt from it. Donchenko fakes a takedown and a high kick, and he settles for a body shot when Morono is escaping. Donchenko slaps a kick to the inside of Morono’s leg, and Morono hobbles around and takes another body shot before just avoiding a spinning elbow.
Morono sticks out straight punches, both nostrils now leaking, and Donchenko targets the left leg and hurts it badly. Morono can barely put weight on it, and he tries to slug it out but Donchenko takes the blows on the chin and keeps pushing. Donchenko goes to the body with a kick, and Morono switches stances a few times to remove his bum wheel from the equation. They both spin with back elbows at the same time and clash like Beyblades, and a low kick from Donchenko leads to another spin that busts Morono’s nose open much further. Donchenko hacks at the lead leg with two more kicks, the second of which checked, and Morono presses forward and swings with reckless abandon. Donchenko presses on Morono, and he elbows him on the break. Morono bounces off the wall and gets his leg kicked out, and Donchenko walks off as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Donchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Donchenko
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Donchenko

Round 3
Morono admits to his corner that the leg kicks hurt a great deal, profanity redacted because this is family programming. The Texan opens up after taking serious damage the last 10 minutes behind his jab, and Donchenko targets the front leg several times in hopes of taking any momentum out of Morono. Morono surges forward, leaning back to avoid a spin as he backs Donchenko to the wall. Morono tries his own spin that bounces off the guard, and he ducks a pair of haymakers but cannot get out of the way of another calf kick. Donchenko kicks the inside and out, working the body and head, attacking any spot that is open. Morono takes another kick and limps around, and he loads up on a huge right hand that Donchenko easily ducks. Morono doubles up on a jab, and his follow-up right goes wide. He checks a kick, but still does not like the impact of the blow. Donchenko kicks him twice and then avoids a wheel kick, and Morono pushes off his face to protect himself from subsequent swings.
Donchenko jabs a front kick to the body and follows it with a left hand, and he circles away and just avoids an elbow from up close. The Ukrainian mixes in punches with low kicks, keeping his guard up to defend the eventual counters. Morono’s jabs have opened up the cut on Donchenko’s nose, and Donchenko bends over and seems to allow Morono to wrap him up and knee him in the face. Donchenko beans Morono behind the ear, and Morono takes it flush and bounces off the fencing when absorbing another. Morono partially checks a low kick, and he splits the guard with a left and a right. Donchenko stares at him, hands down, and unleashes a heavy leg kick. Donchenko wraps a right hand around the guard, and sends Morono spinning to his knees with a left. The Texan climbs back up and presses the action, jabbing to set up his right. Donchenko showboats and laughs at him when Morono lands, and he points to the ground to initiate a torrid brawl. Donchenko knocks Morono off his feet in the ensuing melee, and he is kicked in the chest to back him off right before the third round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Donchenko (30-26 Donchenko)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Donchenko (30-26 Donchenko)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Donchenko (30-26 Donchenko)

The Official Result
Daniil Donchenko def. Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Angelo picks Daniil Donchenko despite believing Alex Morono is the better fighter skill-for-skill. He explains that Morono is a 'moron' who will stand and trade instead of using his high-level jiu-jitsu. Donchenko hits hard and Morono is on a three-fight skid. He thinks Morono has the easiest path to victory by grappling but won't do it, so he picks Donchenko.

"Denil Donenko is the pick. I I I He just hits too hard and Alex is going to stand there and try to go slike with him. It's just dumb."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Big Brady picks Daniil Donchenko, praising his aggressive style and dangerous striking. He questions Alex Morono's commitment to fighting, noting he has other pursuits and has looked poor in recent fights. He expects Donchenko to pressure and finish Morono early, similar to Carlos Liao's win over Morono.

by first round knockout
"I like Donchenko. I like Donchenko by first round knockout. I think he runs through Alex Morono."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Cody agrees, highlighting Donchenko's power and Morono's chin issues. He notes Donchenko's tendency to gas but expects an early finish. Cody suggests betting Donchenko live after the first round if he doesn't finish, but overall picks Donchenko.

"Donchenko is just highly aggressive and sits down on his punches and you know, maybe he can topple him over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Morono is a subpar athlete who has lost his speed and durability. He notes that Donchenko is young and technical, and that Morono's wins were over past-prime fighters. Connor concludes that Donchenko will win purely based on age and physical decline.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So it makes perfect sense to then match him up with Daniil Donchenko right now. And that's definitely a fight I have to think about hard to figure out how it's going to go."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Lucrative James picks Daniil Donchenko to win by TKO in round two or three. He trusts Donchenko's youth, physicality, and improvement, while noting that Morono is aging and has a questionable chin. James expects Morono to start well but fade as the fight progresses.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm trusting Donenko. I'm trusting in his youth, physicality, power, durability, upside. and I'm trusting in his improvement upside to get the job done. I think be a TKO in round two or round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Donchenko by first-round knockout, calling it a horrible stylistic matchup for Morono. He highlights Donchenko's Muay Thai, especially his elbows and knees, and his aggressive pressure. He notes Morono's chin is fading and he struggles with cardio, making him vulnerable to an early finish.

round 1 knockout
"So once again, give me Denil Donenko round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Paul picks Daniil Donchenko, citing his power and aggression. He notes Morono's recent losses and declining durability. Paul expects Donchenko to finish early but warns about his cardio if it goes past the first round. He suggests betting Donchenko but not at heavy favorite odds.

"It's got to be Don Shenko favorite status on this side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Daniil Donchenko over Alex Morono. He is very confident, predicting a first-round TKO. He notes Donchenko's aggressive style, elbows, body work, and low kicks. He thinks Morono can take a beating but Donchenko's cutting shots and pressure will overwhelm him early.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Danil Donchenko getting a first round TKO over Alex Morono all day long."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Zane picks Donchenko based on age and decline of Morono. He notes that Morono is slower and more fragile, and that Donchenko is a young, technical, and violent fighter who can execute at multiple levels. Zane believes Donchenko will simply wreck Morono, as Morono has lost to late-career Niko Price and is past his prime.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So Donchenko is just going to wreck him. Yeah. That's it. It's just going to go out there and wreck him."
LOSS vs Carlos Leal
KO R1 4:16 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 123 of 257 47% 126 of 260 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 74 of 257 28% 91 of 276 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 44 of 99 44% 44 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 23 of 91 25% 23 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 54 of 102 52% 57 of 105 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 20 of 85 23% 37 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 123 of 257 47% 44 of 153 56 of 80 23 of 24 117 of 251 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 74 of 257 28% 58 of 228 9 of 21 7 of 8 74 of 256 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 25 of 56 44% 7 of 32 11 of 17 7 of 7 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 31 of 81 38% 20 of 67 5 of 8 6 of 6 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 44 of 99 44% 19 of 65 18 of 27 7 of 7 44 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 23 of 91 25% 20 of 83 2 of 7 1 of 1 23 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Rodriguez 54 of 102 52% 18 of 56 27 of 36 9 of 10 48 of 96 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 20 of 85 23% 18 of 78 2 of 6 0 of 1 20 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Angelo makes a low-confidence pick for Daniel Rodriguez, citing Alex Morono's unreliability. He notes that Morono is the overall better fighter but can never be trusted. Angelo suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Morono instead, as he believes Morono can win at least one round. He does not bet the moneyline on either fighter.

Considering plus 3.5 bet on Alex Morono if plus money
"The wildly low confidence pick will be Daniel because you just cannot trust Alex morono."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision, but notes he needs to see the weigh-ins to confirm. He criticizes Morono's awful performance against Niko Price, where he was gassed after one minute, and notes Morono is on short notice again. He thinks Rodriguez is the better striker and less washed, though both are declining. If Morono looks bad on the scale, Brady would change his pick to a knockout. He expects a decision but is open to a finish if Morono looks terrible.

Rodriguez by decision; if Morono looks awful, change to knockout
"I'm picking D Rod regardless I think he's the better Striker quicker harder hitter and looks less less washed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rodriguez is a technical brawler who throws combinations and sets up shots, while Morono is a bad athlete who relies on game planning. He points out that Morono's jab is his best weapon but Rodriguez hits harder and is more durable. Connor expects Rodriguez to win a competitive fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Got to go with d rod agreed. But I like the fight a lot because oh, yeah the fight that morono will hang in he will keep it competitive."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel notes that Rodriguez has declined significantly in speed and reflexes, as seen in the Kelvin Gastelum fight, but he still has a speed advantage over Morono, who has never been fast. He thinks Rodriguez's jab and straight punches will get there first against Morono's wild overhands. However, he is not confident and expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest.

"Sure, pure pick I'll go with D Rod because historically he does have a big speed advantage... but there's a potential this fight plays out closer than the line indicates."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Rodriguez is more well-rounded and technical than Morono. Morono uses footwork but will struggle with Rodriguez's counters and straight shots down the pipe. Rodriguez will walk Morono down, land big strikes, and win on the scorecards.

"I think Rodriguez will do a good job in terms of walking Morono down landing his big strikes and winning this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, criticizing Alex Morono for lacking talent, athleticism, and fast-twitch fibers. He praises Rodriguez's crisp, technical boxing and power, and expects a TKO in the second round. He dismisses Morono's grappling and overall game, calling him a 'flabby soft no Talent having hard worker'.

TKO second round
"I'm going to go with D Rod getting this one done way crisper boxing way more technical boxing way Slicker boxing way more power I'm going to say D Rod gets this one done by TKO second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because he believes Rodriguez's power and durability will be too much for Morono. He notes that Morono often struggles against athletic fighters with power, and Rodriguez, despite being messy, has the tools to outwork and hurt Morono. Zane thinks Morono may have moments but will eventually get cracked.

Rodriguez opened at -190, now -201; Morono opened at +167, now +176.
"I'm still inclined to take rodriguez. It just feels like to me i've seen too many times where morono can get into a fight like this where you're like oh, yeah. No, you've got the right idea to hang with …"
LOSS vs Niko Price
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 108 of 224 48% 138 of 259 5 of 5 100% 0 1 3:37
Alex Morono 0 96 of 210 45% 111 of 225 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 16 of 51 31% 21 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:10
Alex Morono 0 34 of 72 47% 40 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Niko Price 0 34 of 65 52% 50 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:04
Alex Morono 0 21 of 43 48% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Niko Price 0 58 of 108 53% 67 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Alex Morono 0 41 of 95 43% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 108 of 224 48% 78 of 181 24 of 33 6 of 10 78 of 182 9 of 19 21 of 23
Alex Morono 96 of 210 45% 74 of 184 13 of 15 9 of 11 91 of 204 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 16 of 51 31% 12 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 1 14 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 2
Alex Morono 34 of 72 47% 26 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 5 32 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Niko Price 34 of 65 52% 22 of 48 8 of 12 4 of 5 16 of 44 3 of 5 15 of 16
Alex Morono 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Niko Price 58 of 108 53% 44 of 88 12 of 16 2 of 4 48 of 91 6 of 12 4 of 5
Alex Morono 41 of 95 43% 29 of 81 8 of 9 4 of 5 39 of 92 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.

"I think morono is just the better fighter I think he's the more technical Striker he certainly is the better Grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.

fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Alex Morono wins by knockout
"I think it's probably is marona going out there and getting The Knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.

"I'm gonna go with the Niko Price direction too... Price has got sickening volume... Morono is not that guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.

"I'm gonna go Nico price here to beat him a second time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.

round 2 knockout
"I think we'll see morono capitalize on that... I think it's ultimately going to be a big shot on the chin that puts Nico price out here so give me Alex morono second round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.

"Everything in my being I know Niko Price is kind of washed but it's like how does Alex Morono lose fights? He gets knocked out... I'm tempted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.

Morono by decision
"I'm going to go with Alex morono here um morono by decision TKO maybe but I'll say decision"
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 60 of 160 37% 78 of 184 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:20
Court McGee 0 38 of 141 26% 42 of 149 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 12 of 50 24% 12 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 20 of 41 48% 36 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:12
Court McGee 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 67 26% 20 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:08
Court McGee 0 17 of 63 26% 18 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 60 of 160 37% 14 of 73 29 of 55 17 of 32 52 of 148 0 of 1 8 of 11
Court McGee 38 of 141 26% 26 of 118 9 of 18 3 of 5 38 of 139 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 22 of 52 42% 3 of 16 13 of 25 6 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 12 of 50 24% 8 of 42 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 20 of 41 48% 7 of 21 8 of 12 5 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 1 8 of 10
Court McGee 9 of 28 32% 6 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 67 26% 4 of 36 8 of 18 6 of 13 18 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 1
Court McGee 17 of 63 26% 12 of 51 4 of 9 1 of 3 17 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono because he believes Morono is a step ahead everywhere in this fight and could potentially finish an aging Court McGee. He notes that McGee relied on his work ethic and chin, but at 39, that chin is gone and hard work alone won't get wins. Morono is somewhat unreliable himself, but Angelo thinks he should be good here.

"Morono is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He notes that Morono is six years younger, has better striking volume, and good jiu-jitsu. He believes Court McGee's durability is waning after recent knockouts, but doesn't expect a finish. He thinks Morono will be better wherever the fight goes.

win by decision
"I'm taking morono here I'm taking morono to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody agrees, noting McGee's recent knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He thinks Morono's volume and speed will be too much, and that McGee's pressure game won't work against a more technical striker. Cody also mentions Morono's competitive fight with Joaquin Buckley has aged well.

"morona kills him... I think it's Justified Chuck on Alex morono"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alex Morono to finish Court McGee in the first round. He compares McGee to past veterans Morono has stopped, like Josh Burkman and Tim Means, noting McGee is 40 and slow. Vreeland believes Morono's speed, power, and vicious intent will overwhelm McGee, and even if taken down, Morono can pop back up. He predicts a first-round knockout or submission.

first round finish
"I actually think Alex Morano gets a first round finish man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono is younger, more durable, and has better striking volume and power. McGee's chin is fading after recent knockouts. Morono's defensive grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing, where he can land damaging combinations. Expect a finish in the second or third round.

Morono by KO/TKO or submission (club and sub)
"I think he knocks out or clubs and Subs McGee at some point in this matchup early going should be a little bit grindy a little bit close but as this fight starts to wear on is and as morono …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul is confident in Morono, citing McGee's age, declining durability, and recent knockout losses. He notes McGee's wins are over one-dimensional grapplers, while Morono has better footwork, volume, and takedown defense. Paul thinks Morono will outwork McGee and possibly knock him out, as McGee's durability is gone.

by KO
"morona kills him... don't mind Alex morono knockout one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host picks Morono based on output and commitment. He notes Morono looked amazing against Buckley and is better than Ventre. He criticizes McGee's recent losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He predicts neither will get a KO or dominate grappling, so Morono's higher volume will win a decision.

"I'm going to go Alex morono more committed to the game more volume on the feet and I doubt either of them get a KO over over each other"
LOSS vs Joaquin Buckley
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquin Buckley 0 40 of 141 28% 54 of 161 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 68 of 176 38% 77 of 186 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquin Buckley 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 10 of 41 24% 14 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:35
2 Joaquin Buckley 0 15 of 52 28% 25 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Joaquin Buckley 0 13 of 56 23% 17 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 40 of 90 44% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquin Buckley 40 of 141 28% 29 of 122 10 of 17 1 of 2 37 of 133 3 of 8 0 of 0
Alex Morono 68 of 176 38% 41 of 134 24 of 36 3 of 6 55 of 141 2 of 9 11 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquin Buckley 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Morono 10 of 41 24% 6 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joaquin Buckley 15 of 52 28% 11 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 2 15 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Morono 18 of 45 40% 10 of 31 8 of 13 0 of 1 17 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joaquin Buckley 13 of 56 23% 9 of 49 4 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 51 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Morono 40 of 90 44% 25 of 71 14 of 17 1 of 2 28 of 59 1 of 5 11 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Alex Morono
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-175), Morono (+145)

Round 1
From one action fight to the next we go, as exciting welterweights Morono (23-8, 1 NC; 12-5, 1 NC UFC) and Buckley (16-6, 6-4 UFC) toe the line in search of another highlight-reel finish. Referee Kerry Hatley will have his hands full, as the match could take place anywhere and end in the blink of an eye. Buckley dances his way to the cage with Beyonce playing, while Morono goes hard with Prong. There is no glove touch to start the fight, and instead Buckley charges like a bull, throwing fists. He ends up grabbing hold of Morono’s legs. Morono pulls his limbs out and returns to striking range, and the welterweights calm down and proceed to measure one another with single blows. Buckley lands a body kick, and Morono splits the guard with a right hand. Morono ducks away from a haymaker and counters with a right hand. Morono catches his man with a right, and Buckley loads up with a right in response to put his man on rubber legs. Morono shakes out the cobwebs and bounces off the fencing, and he chambers a right hand that just misses the forehead. Buckley springs into action with an uppercut, and he spins with a back kick that ends up getting crowded by the Texan. Morono drives a straight right hand after following a jab, and the power punch in response from Buckley grazes off the side of his noggin. Buckley blitzes with a few punches, and Morono is able to parry or avoid them all. A second surge from “New Mansa” also misses the mark each and every time, but Morono does not make him pay for these reckless attacks and instead allows Buckley to hit air. Buckley leaps at him with a knee extended, but Morono is nowhere to be found. Morono hand-fights until putting a right hand on the jaw, and Buckley races after him and tags him right back. Buckley attempts to spin, and Morono’s safe distance disallows it from succeeding. From out of nowhere, Buckley runs at his foe and lifts him off the ground with a double. Morono hits his back and defends with an armbar, and Buckley wriggles his arm out and backs off to escape the guard before upkicks or other submission attempts find him. Buckley lifts him up again, and Morono latches onto a guillotine choke. Buckley ends up slamming Morono down hard to break up the submission, and the energetic round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
At the beginning of the round, Buckley is not quite as wild as before, instead lining up a head kick. The Texan counters him with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Buckley flying, and Buckley scrambles back to his feet. Morono allows him to reset so that he can further trade with his opponent, and Buckley aims a few strikes to the body. Morono looks for a high kick that is feet away from the target, and he leans back from a pair of looping hooks that whiz at him. Buckley lumbers forward and suddenly unloads a few huge hooks, and Morono is out of range in time. Morono aims a front kick down the middle when he expected Buckley will come at him, but Buckley does not bite. Buckley kicks the body, and Morono responds with a kick that slaps him in the posterior and makes Buckley grin. Buckley explodes into a combination that is largely blocked and defended by the Fortis MMA fighter, and when he backs off to measure his man, he drills Morono in the ribs with a stern kick. Morono flicks out a number of jabs, and he leans and ducks a punch so that he can catch Buckley with a right hook on the side of the head. Morono measures and releases a head kick that pounds into the guard, and Buckley kicks him in the body again. Buckley tries to corner his foe with a flurry of punches, but Morono will not have it and backs Buckley off. Buckley whiffs on a kick but lands with a body shot, and he ducks a spinning back fist just in the nick of time. Morono strings a few punches together, gets clipped, and responds with a right. Buckley continues to target the body and head indiscriminately in attacks, keeping Morono guessing and not allowing a pattern to emerge. Buckley digs a left to the body and aims a right over the top, but it is a charging left hook when Morono dodges him that catches Morono. Buckley rushes at his man to jam him up against the fencing, and they trade knees before separating at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Buckley leads the dance with a series of punches. Commentator Daniel Cormier starts barking when saying that the fighters “need to bring the dog out,” and Buckley lashes out with power strikes that finally find their home cleanly. A left hand from “New Mansa” busts Morono’s lip, and blood immediately trickles out of his mouth. Morono aims counters, but Buckley appears slightly fresher and able to beat his foe to the punch. Buckley runs forward with a looping left hook, and he slams his right fist into the body. Morono backs him off with a front kick, and the kick rams into his cup. Buckley waves off Hatley and does not want to allow Morono to recover. Morono eats several clean shots, and he is taking damage and trying to back off to survive. Buckley lays into him with a number of unanswered body shots and a few to the head, and Morono hits nothing but air when he replies with a right hand. Buckley spins with a wheel kick, and Morono tackles him to the ground. Buckley bursts back to his feet after only a few seconds on his back, and he smashes Morono in the face with a left hand. Buckley hammers his foe with a number of punches to the body and head, and Morono is leaning against the fence and struggling to stay on his feet. Morono shoots desperately for a takedown, and it is a feeble attempt as he falls to his knees. Buckley lets him stand up so that he can punch the Texan in the face again and again. Morono takes a deep breath and starts firing back, but it is a takedown shot that he goes for a full-throated effort. Buckley stonewalls him and pushes Morono to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to drop down some heavy ground-and-pound. Morono maintains a high guard, and Buckley opens up with several right hands until Morono adjusts. Buckley keeps tightly pressed to “The Great White” to not allow Morono to latch on with a submission, and he sneaks in some ground strikes when he finds openings. Buckley stands up, and lets Morono up with 15 seconds to spare. Morono meanders forward, and he throws everything into one final right hand that ultimately misses and sends him toppling to the mat. Morono rolls to his back, and Buckley returns to the guard to do a little more damage before the final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)

The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.

"waim Buckley is going to be the pick he's the more dangerous Striker decent takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.

third round knockout for Joaquin Buckley
"give me Buckley to win this fight I'll take Buckley to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.

"I am gonna go yokine Buckley... I recognize this as live Underdog potential... but ultimately I do think that Buckley's... rounding out his game"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.

"I'm going with Buckley in this fight and I do think there's a chance someone hits the deck here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Joaquin Buckley

Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Buckley's gonna get around two or three knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.

knockout
"I think Buckley catches him and I think Buckley puts him away give me Buckley by knock out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.

Buckley by decision, Over 36.5 significant strikes for Buckley
"Buckley's a pick for me as well... if I was chasing a prop it would probably be Buckley by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono, predicting a TKO in the second round. He believes Buckley's intention to take Morono's head off will be the difference, as Morono tries to outpoint to a decision. He notes Morono was doing well against Ponzinibbio until he got knocked out in round three, and that Morono's wins haven't aged well. He also mentions Buckley's size and reach advantage.

TKO second round
"I'm going Joaquin Buckley over Alex morono"
WIN vs Tim Means
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 87 45% 45 of 92 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:46
Tim Means 0 33 of 92 35% 42 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 32 of 64 50% 34 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Tim Means 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
Tim Means 0 15 of 34 44% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 87 45% 16 of 52 18 of 29 6 of 6 30 of 74 10 of 13 0 of 0
Tim Means 33 of 92 35% 29 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 86 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 32 of 64 50% 10 of 32 16 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 52 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tim Means 18 of 58 31% 16 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 52 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 8 of 23 34% 6 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 15 of 34 44% 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.

"I am gonna lean on him for the pick here but holy crap is this a close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.

second round knockout
"give me Alex marona to win this fight I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout I think he knocks out Tim Means on Saturday"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.

"I'm just doubting it on a personal level so we'll take Alex morono to get the job done which pains me because we've been doing this show for like nine years and we've been covering Tim Means fights pretty much …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.

pass on betting at -225; fight could go to decision or be a war
"I'm gonna pick Alex Morano but it's not a confident pick and it's not something I'm interested it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.

inside the distance, TKO
"gimme Alex morono inside the distance I'm gonna call it via TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.

submission prop (market moved from 9-1 to 6.5-1)
"my biggest struggle yeah I just I just can't get behind the dirty bird at this point he seems to really absolutely guess about six seven minutes into every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.

dominant decision win 30-27
"Alex morono I think is going to win this matchup... I see him getting finished on the feet maybe as the fight goes on or maybe there'll be a dominant decision win for morono here 30 27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
KO (punches) R3 2:29 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 66 of 155 42% 66 of 155 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 1 38 of 131 29% 38 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 1 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 66 of 155 42% 31 of 99 26 of 47 9 of 9 65 of 153 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 38 of 131 29% 34 of 120 4 of 11 0 of 0 34 of 124 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 22 of 42 52% 6 of 19 11 of 18 5 of 5 22 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 17 of 55 30% 14 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 48 0 of 0 4 of 7
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 12 of 48 12 of 23 2 of 2 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 13 of 50 26% 12 of 45 1 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 18 of 40 45% 13 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 8 of 26 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.

"ponzanibio is the pick but avoid the power do what you do stay technical use the range pour on some volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.

Ponzinibbio wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take pawns and maybe to win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.

Ponzinibbio by decision
"I would have to say that pausing Ebu just goes there and works morono over... I do have him winning by decision more specifically"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.

Odds: Morono opened +220, dropped to +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I still think I'm going to have to take him for having a full camp. Ponsinibio style doesn't really change ever from opponent to opponent."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.

"I still think he gets it done but you just can't act surprised if he doesn't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"pumping up this weekend on panzanibio I'd say I don't mind it I don't mind that one bit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm gonna take uh ponzanibio as well minus 180 seems relatively Fair too to be perfectly honest so I'm a little bit surprised by that number particularly with Alex morono coming in on short notice"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.

"I'm gonna be going with Santiago ponz nibio over Robbie Lawler"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.

Odds: Morono opened +220, now +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I'm going to pick Santiago Ponson to be out here. I just think that despite even beyond the short notice Ponson to be Oh getting put away early by Legion, the longest concern, but the way he's rallied back against …"
Matthew Semelsberger - Fight History
LOSS vs Charles Radtke
TKO (punches) R1 0:51 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Semelsberger 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Semelsberger 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 7 of 12 58% 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 7 of 12 58% 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charles Radtke because he believes Radtke will land the better shots and get takedowns. He notes Radtke is an athletic grappler with power, while Semelsberger is an aggressive striker with poor takedown defense (45%). He thinks Semelsberger's toughness will keep him in the fight but doesn't see him winning. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds line if available, as both are tough.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"I think Charlie's going to land the better shot shs get the takedowns which hopefully we'll start to see more of and I think he wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady likes Radtke's multiple paths to victory: power on the feet and a clear grappling advantage. He criticizes Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and low volume, noting that Radtke is a BJJ black belt with submission wins. He predicts a second-round submission.

Radtke by submission, round 2
"I'll take racky to win this fight I think it's a submission and I think it's round round uh round two submission I'll say for Charles raky"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Cody sees this as a coin flip but leans Radtke due to Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and recent losses. He notes Radtke's smart game plan against Blood Diamond and his clinch work. Cody expects Radtke to neutralize Semelsberger's striking with wrestling and cage control.

"It's a coin flip fight it's 50/50 to me but my brain does tell me radkey so even though I got to play a little chalk on it I guess I will."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke, citing Semelsberger's broken confidence and inability to deal with Radtke's lead left hook. He notes Semelsberger has been second-guessing himself and overthinking, while Radtke has a simple one-punch game. Connor thinks Semelsberger will just eat the left hook or try to avoid it without a clear answer.

"I'm taking Radtke. I think that left hook... I can't imagine that Semelsberger is going to come up with a confident, clear answer for the lead left hook."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Matthew Semelsberger as a dog, citing his knockdown power and experience. He worries about Semelsberger's mental toughness and tendency to let opponents back into fights, but believes Charles Radtke is still green and not worth laying a price on. Vreeland notes Semelsberger has won as a dog before.

"I'm going to reluctantly take semi the Jedi Matthew Semelsberger here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke is expected to do enough in the striking to get his offense off, then take the fight to the ground where he can find a finish in the first or second round.

wins inside distance, round 1-2
"I'm going to have to go with the grappler here and Radu can do a good enough job in the Striking R to get his own offense off but eventually get this fight into the grappling round where we should …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Paul agrees, citing Semelsberger's declining durability and takedown defense. He worries about Radtke's size disadvantage but thinks Radtke's wrestling and left hook can get the job done. Paul plans to include Radtke in parlays.

"Radtke is the pick for me and I'm sure he'll be on something not like a hard play a little bit more along the Deen you know a long parlay."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog, citing his reach advantage and ability to beat Jake Matthews. He criticizes Radtke's performance against Mike Malott and believes Semelsberger will finally get a TKO finish without fumbling. He notes Semelsberger is on a three-fight losing streak and has his back against the wall.

TKO win, underdog
"I'm taking that Underdog I'm taking the underdog of Matthew semelsberger this guy is a fum of fumblers we have to mention that okay"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing with Connor. He describes Semelsberger as deep in the shit, unable to figure out his game, and distractible. Zane notes Semelsberger got outstruck by Preston Parsons, who is straightforward, and that Radtke's simple left hook will be effective. He says 'I'm taking Radtke'.

"So I'm taking Radtke. I think that left hook... I can't imagine that Semelsberger is going to come up with a confident, clear answer for the lead left hook."
LOSS vs Preston Parsons
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Preston Parsons 0 28 of 69 40% 33 of 77 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:08
Matthew Semelsberger 0 47 of 87 54% 116 of 165 7 of 11 63% 2 1 6:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Preston Parsons 0 11 of 29 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Matthew Semelsberger 0 20 of 35 57% 45 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:21
2 Preston Parsons 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Matthew Semelsberger 0 17 of 31 54% 36 of 53 4 of 5 80% 1 0 2:24
3 Preston Parsons 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:54
Matthew Semelsberger 0 10 of 21 47% 35 of 50 2 of 3 66% 1 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Preston Parsons 28 of 69 40% 18 of 55 4 of 8 6 of 6 23 of 60 3 of 7 2 of 2
Matthew Semelsberger 47 of 87 54% 25 of 62 9 of 11 13 of 14 25 of 59 11 of 13 11 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Preston Parsons 11 of 29 37% 5 of 20 1 of 4 5 of 5 11 of 27 0 of 2 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 20 of 35 57% 5 of 19 7 of 8 8 of 8 17 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 1
2 Preston Parsons 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 2 of 4 2 of 2
Matthew Semelsberger 17 of 31 54% 10 of 22 2 of 3 5 of 6 6 of 19 8 of 9 3 of 3
3 Preston Parsons 8 of 19 42% 7 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.

Quarter unit on Parsons moneyline at +105; plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance (decision no action)
"I still picked him to win and I do have a small quarter of a unit bet on him at those plus 105 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take simburger to knock out Preston Parsons very brutally and do it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.

"the plus 110 on Preston Parsons I'll take it"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.

"I think he's going to knock out Preston Parsons."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.

Parsons by decision
"plus 110 I got to go with the dog here I think we're going to see Parsons go out there pick this fight up uh win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.

"give me the wrestler who's actually been on a full camp at plus 110"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger despite acknowledging his tendency to mess up TKO finishes. He notes Semelsberger's size, reach, and power, and believes he has a high likelihood of landing a big KO shot. He is not impressed by Preston Parsons, except for his win over Trevin Giles, which he attributes to Giles' mistakes.

likes the odds
"I'm going to go seberger much larger much longer reach as well dangerous on the feet... I'm going to go again against Preston Parsons and pick Matthew semelsberger here"
LOSS vs Uroš Medić
TKO (spinning backfist and punches) R3 2:36 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 1 52 of 120 43% 53 of 121 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Matthew Semelsberger 1 69 of 128 53% 76 of 135 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 1 17 of 36 47% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Matthew Semelsberger 0 18 of 31 58% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
2 Uroš Medić 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Semelsberger 0 25 of 55 45% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Uroš Medić 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Matthew Semelsberger 1 26 of 42 61% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 52 of 120 43% 31 of 91 8 of 14 13 of 15 42 of 106 3 of 5 7 of 9
Matthew Semelsberger 69 of 128 53% 49 of 98 17 of 27 3 of 3 50 of 104 13 of 18 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 17 of 36 47% 10 of 29 5 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 25 1 of 2 7 of 9
Matthew Semelsberger 18 of 31 58% 12 of 22 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 24 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Uroš Medić 24 of 58 41% 12 of 40 3 of 8 9 of 10 23 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 25 of 55 45% 16 of 43 7 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Uroš Medić 11 of 26 42% 9 of 22 0 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 26 of 42 61% 21 of 33 5 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 27 7 of 9 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Angelo picks Semelsberger because he believes Semelsberger has enough chin to weather Medić's striking and can then work in his grappling advantage. He notes that Semelsberger has solid leg kicks, body work, and power, but can be sloppy. He trusts Semelsberger to close the gap and drag the fight into later rounds, where his grappling should take over. He already placed a half-unit bet at -150.

half a unit at -150
"The pick is going to be Samuel's Burger because he should have enough chin to weather what other storm comes his way and then he can work in grappling."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He argues that Semelsberger has more paths to victory: better durability, cardio, wrestling, and grappling, plus massive power (nine knockdowns in eight fights). He expects Medić, coming up in weight on short notice at elevation, to fade after an early onslaught, and Semelsberger's chin will hold up to finish him.

second round knockout
"I'll say semmelsberger's second round knockout though after medic starts to slow down a little bit"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Cody picks Semelsberger but is hesitant at -200. He notes Medić's power and early finishing ability but questions his cardio. Semelsberger has good volume and takedown defense issues but can survive early onslaughts. He suggests a live bet on Semelsberger if he survives the first round.

"someone's Burger is going to be the pick I'm not gonna get to it at minus 200 though"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

James believes Medić is a cleaner striker with better timing and technique, while Semelsberger has more power but an elite chin that may eventually crack. He notes the line has moved heavily toward Semelsberger, creating value on Medić as an underdog. He thinks the fight is fairly even and that Medić's striking prowess gives him the edge.

"I do tend to think that there's some value on the uros medit side for me I think Urus medic is a cleaner Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Semelsberger has more knockdowns than fights and his forward pressure and power punching will be too much for Medić. Medić is a glass cannon with a hand injury history and doesn't have the grappling to exploit Semelsberger's weakness. Semelsberger will land a big punch and knock him out. Fight doesn't go to decision is a great play.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I fully believe that the forward pressure and aggressive movement and power punching style of samuelsberger will be too much for medichair and I think that will allow him to get the win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Paul also picks Semelsberger, citing his superior cardio and volume. He notes Medić's limited cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. Semelsberger has faced wrestlers and power punchers but has shown durability. He advises a live bet if Medić doesn't finish early.

"I gotta lead towards Summer's Burger having that Superior volume being able to actually fight 15 minutes"
LOSS vs Jeremiah Wells
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeremiah Wells 0 36 of 76 47% 86 of 158 6 of 10 60% 0 0 11:12
Matthew Semelsberger 2 20 of 37 54% 39 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeremiah Wells 0 17 of 38 44% 35 of 69 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:31
Matthew Semelsberger 1 11 of 18 61% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
2 Jeremiah Wells 0 16 of 33 48% 32 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:09
Matthew Semelsberger 1 6 of 12 50% 19 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
3 Jeremiah Wells 0 3 of 5 60% 19 of 30 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:32
Matthew Semelsberger 0 3 of 7 42% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeremiah Wells 36 of 76 47% 29 of 67 7 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 3 24 of 45
Matthew Semelsberger 20 of 37 54% 17 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 22 4 of 5 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeremiah Wells 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 3 12 of 27
Matthew Semelsberger 11 of 18 61% 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 3 of 8
2 Jeremiah Wells 16 of 33 48% 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 12 of 18
Matthew Semelsberger 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Jeremiah Wells 3 of 5 60% 0 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Jeremiah Wells
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wells (-110), Semelsberger (-110)

Round 1
The UFC chose violence for this event’s main card opener, as when Wells (11-2-1, 3-0 UFC) and Semelsberger (11-4, 5-2 UFC) get down to business, all hell might break loose. Needing no more introduction as there is about to be some exciting action, referee Marc Goddard takes charge. There is no touch of gloves as Wells practically sprints into action, and Semelsberger catches him with a stiff right hand and stuns him. Wells backs off, gathers his thoughts and charges recklessly again. Semelsberger counters him cleanly and downs his man, and Wells scrambles when he hits the mat instead of getting pounded out by the forceful strikes of “Semi the Jedi.” Wells moves when he needs to, and he stands up to pursue a takedown. Semelsberger stuffs him and jams him against the wall, and the pace slows down from the veritable car crash of offense from before. Wells spins himself deftly to throw Semelsberger down to the floor, and he ends up in the closed guard of his opponent trying to rain down right hands. Semelsberger leans his upper back against the wall to partially sit up, and Wells continues to remains on top pounding on Semelsberger. On his back, Semelsberger tries to hook his toes in the cage to pull off of it, and he is warned for it as Wells smacks Semelsberger with ground strikes. Semelsberger pushes his man off of him, but Wells leaps back on top of him. Semelsberger stands and nearly gives up his back, only for him to wriggle it free and get shoved against the wire. Wells looks for another change in leverage to secure a throw, and he lets go to throw hands. When Semelsberger defends from the oncoming fire, Wells changes levels and successfully hits a double. Wells postures up in the guard to hammer with punches from on high, and the round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger

Round 2
The round begins far less wild than the first, as Semelsberger instead meanders forward to claim the center of the cage with Wells eventually leaping in and out with two punches. They collide with fists at the same time, and a monster left hook from “Semi the Jedi” and a right hand smash into Wells dome and send him wobbling back until he falls over. Semelsberger does not finish the job, instead patiently landing a few shots, before backing off to reset. Wells swings for the bleachers when upright again, and Semelsberger tags him with a sharp right hand to stun him once more. Wells tries to grab his foe and throw him down, but there is nothing to it, so he gets back to striking range to lob bombs. Wells ducks a looping punch and pursues a single this time, and he elevates Semelsberger and drops him hard to the mat. Wells settles for the closed guard to pummel Semelsberger with ground-and-pound, forcing Semelsberger to open up his guard for some better position on his back. Wells calmly sits up and lands a few strikes, with an elbow that he drops down with his full body weight behind. Elbows from Wells continue to land on the forehead, and he hammers the body a few times when Goddard tells him to keep working. Semelsberger looks to set up a high guard, and Wells leaps over it and briefly gets to half guard before being pulled back to the guard again. Wells slashes down with additional elbows, working Semelsberger over effectively until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells

Round 3
The last round has surprisingly been reached, and unsurprisingly, both men load up on their punches right out of the gate and nail each other. Wells leaps forward with a flying knee that skims off the side of the head, and Semelsberger sneaks through a body shot when his man lands. Wells rushes forward in pursuit of a double, and he scoops Semelsberger up like Matt Hughes and loudly deposits him to the floor. When Semelsberger climbs back upright, Wells quickly slams him back down for an exclamation point. Wells manages to work his way into the half guard as he presses down to keep the moving Semelsberger from standing. Semelsberger turns just enough to isolate a leg to go after a leglock, and Wells is wise to it and circles all the way around to tug his limb free and lower himself into half guard on the other side. Semelsberger sweeps from this position and fights his way upright, but Wells is relentless at trying to bring him right back to the floor. Semelsberger fights off one try, and Wells clasps his hands and lowers Semelsberger to the floor. Semelsberger defends with a kimura, isolating Wells’ left arm with a two-on-one wrist lock, and Wells wrenches it out to wind up on top in half guard again. Semelsberger pulls his opponent back to the guard for a bit of a moral victory, and he tries to set up a triangle choke and pulls his toes on the fence to get them over Wells’ shoulders. Wells shucks it off and moves to the side, and he drives elbows down on Semelsberger’s unguarded face. Semelsberger bursts back to his feet, and Wells slings him back down in a final effort. The horn sounds, and the scorecards could be all over the map depending on how the judges value the power Semelsberger displayed in the opening spurts of the first two rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells (29-28 Wells)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Wells (30-27 Wells)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells (29-28 Wells)

The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Matthew Semelsberger via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells, citing his power, technical striking, and BJJ black belt. He thinks Wells should be more technically sound on the feet and have better BJJ than Semelsberger. He notes that Semelsberger is tough and has made fools of bettors before, so he is not betting despite seeing value at -135. He is concerned about Wells' wrestling defense against Semelsberger's pressure.

No bet, but notes value at -135.
"Jeremiah Wells is gonna be the pick here... minus 135 seems like very good value but I got my vasectomy and they may have taken out my manhood as well because I don't have the balls to bet on him …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Big Brady picks Jeremiah Wells to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Wells has a ton of power and a very good grappling game, and he mixes in takedowns well. Brady is concerned about Wells's cardio if the fight extends, but he believes Wells will finish Semelsberger early. He also mentions that this could be a good live betting spot if Semelsberger survives the first round, but he expects Wells to get him out of there early.

first round knockout, good live betting spot if Semelsberger survives first round
"I'm going to take Wells to finish him early though I'm gonna say Wells wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Cody picks Semelsberger, emphasizing his cardio and ability to go 15 minutes, while Wells is a first-round finisher with suspect gas tank. He notes Semelsberger's takedown defense and striking are good, and he has shown improvement. Cody believes if Semelsberger survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late finish. He sees a live betting opportunity to get a better price on Semelsberger after the first round.

Live betting Semelsberger after round 1
"I'm gonna go semi the Jedi Matthew summersburger to get the job done but uh this is a fight that's probably going to either end in the first round and be a win for Jeremiah Wells or I can get …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Connor picks Semelsberger, noting that he is working hard to overcome his anxiety against punchers. He points out that Semelsberger's approach against Jake Matthews was more assertive and that he has the durability to survive Wells's power. He thinks Semelsberger can take the fight to Wells and wilt him, but admits it's not a smart pick.

"I'll take Semelsberger, but not for like smart reasons."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Jeremiah Wells has first-round finishing power but fades in later rounds. Matthew Semelsberger is younger, has knockout power of his own, and a better gas tank. Semelsberger can keep distance, stuff takedowns, and take over as Wells slows down. The fight likely ends in a finish, with Semelsberger coming on late to win by TKO. However, Wells could land early, making this a sketchy pick.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Semelsberger by TKO
"I do like the fight doesn't go to decision the most... I'm gonna go with someone's burger here though as I think he'll come on late and put away Jeremiah was after a while"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Paul picks Wells but is hesitant, acknowledging the points Cody made about cardio. He notes Wells is more explosive and dangerous than AJ Fletcher, who had success against Semelsberger. Paul thinks the price is more accurate now and is not sure he will bet it. He agrees the longer the fight goes, the worse it is for Wells.

"I'm gonna pick up for the purposes of this show um but yeah a lot of the points that you say it's just like I think the longer this fight goes it's going to be bad for or it's going …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog. He notes Semelsberger's underrated chin and grappling, and his reach advantage. He thinks Semelsberger's straight punches will counter Wells' looping shots. He cites Semelsberger's competitive fight with Chaos Williams and his performance against Jake Matthews. He predicts a KO in the first round.

KO in the first round
"I'm going with Matthew simmonsberger over Jeremiah Wells it's a dangerous pick it really is a dangerous pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Zane picks Wells but is not confident, noting that Wells is a powerful puncher but has no depth to his game. He thinks Semelsberger might be the one to adjust and solve Wells, but he has a feeling that Semelsberger will get shocked and fall out of his groove. He mentions that Wells is like a new 'all the Wally Bong Bosch' and is very awkward.

"I'm just taking Wells. I just have a feeling that Semelsberger is just going to get shocked by something and it's going to throw him out of his groove."
WIN vs Jake Matthews
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matthew Semelsberger 0 32 of 89 35% 74 of 140 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:42
Jake Matthews 3 45 of 116 38% 54 of 129 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matthew Semelsberger 0 8 of 15 53% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Matthews 1 18 of 41 43% 22 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:46
2 Matthew Semelsberger 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Matthews 1 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
3 Matthew Semelsberger 0 7 of 27 25% 42 of 69 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:42
Jake Matthews 1 10 of 25 40% 15 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matthew Semelsberger 32 of 89 35% 23 of 77 6 of 9 3 of 3 30 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 1
Jake Matthews 45 of 116 38% 34 of 89 7 of 18 4 of 9 26 of 80 6 of 7 13 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matthew Semelsberger 8 of 15 53% 3 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 18 of 41 43% 13 of 31 3 of 6 2 of 4 6 of 16 1 of 2 11 of 23
2 Matthew Semelsberger 17 of 47 36% 14 of 42 3 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 17 of 50 34% 12 of 34 4 of 12 1 of 4 12 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 1
3 Matthew Semelsberger 7 of 27 25% 6 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 1
Jake Matthews 10 of 25 40% 9 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Matthew Semelsberger
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-255), Semelsberger (+215)

Round 1
We turn to the 170-pound division, as longtime vet Matthews (18-5, 11-5 UFC) at the elderly age of 28 makes his 17th walk to the Octagon. He will throw down against a power puncher also in his prime in the form of “Semi the Jedi” Semelsberger (10-4, 4-2 UFC), who will look to work some Jedi mind tricks before it’s all over. The two touch ‘em up as referee Herb Dean watches on, and this match will occur at the exact same time as the madness that will be Mamed Khalidov vs. Mariusz Pudzianowski at KSW 77. The welterweights largely commit to leg kicks in the early going, trading them without throwing much in the way of punches. Matthews sits down on a calf kick and gets countered over the top, and “Semi the Jedi” manages to get off a solid kick on the way out. Out of nowhere, Semelsberger leaps forward with a powerful right hand that knocks Matthews off his feet. Matthews toughs it out, fights his way back to his feet and gets kneed in the guts. The Aussie steels himself and fires back with a vengeance, forcing Semelsberger to back off and gather his thoughts. As he advances to engage, Semelsberger cracks Matthews with a left hand on the way in, and he uses his momentum to take “The Celtic Kid” to the floor. Semelsberger drives down punches when he postures up, working the body and connecting with occasional blows to the face. Matthews ties his man up from above, protecting himself the onslaught band using effective head movement to sway and dodge the strikes coming at him. Semelsberger concludes the dominant round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Semelsberger
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Semelsberger

Round 2
The two fighters trade blows to begin the second round, but it is Semelsberger who leads the dance and throws harder. Matthews shells up after firing off a jab, knowing that the inevitable punches will come his way from “Semi the Jedi.” Matthews jabs the body with a few front kicks, and Semelsberger practically ignores them to close the distance. Semelsberger sweeps the leg and does not chain any strikes into them, instead snatching up a single off a kick and dumping the Aussie to the ground. Matthews pops back up, right into a solid knee on the chin. Matthews replies with a sharp elbow, only to get tagged with a few uppercuts before breaking off the gather his thoughts. As Semelsberger swings for the fences, Matthews beats him to the punch with a left hook, and Semelsberger stumbles into the wall. Sensing the success of this blow, he times an advancing Semelsberger with another check hook, but he cannot keep Semelsberger at bay entirely. Semelsberger slowly works his way in, taking a flush jab on the forehead so he can wind up with power punches. Matthews replies with a left hand that gets Semelsberger’s attention, backing the American up and making him stick his tongue out. Semelsberger chambers and fires off two huge right hands, and both miss the mark as Matthews’ footwork keeps him inches away from annihilation. Semelsberger swings two big punches, but Matthews is ready for it and clips him on the way in with a short right hand. Semelsberger again advances, and he gets popped with a left. Matthews pushes his man back with his effective, short combinations, until Semelsberger tries to turn the tide with a jump knee. Matthews responds with a head kick, and they both loose big strikes. Matthews has a power left hand pound into the guard, and the sheer impact makes Semelsberger take a step back. Semelsberger coils back and releases a blistering right hook, sending Matthews crashing to the mat as the back of his head bounces off the floor. Matthews gets his wits about him and jumps back up to slug it out, but Semelsberger beats him to the punch a few times before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger

Round 3
The welterweights clap hands to begin the last round, and Semelsberger is ready and rearing to go. Matthews loads up on a right hand, but Semelsberger is faster and swings harder. As if it were a force push, “Semi the Jedi” sends Matthews crumbling to the mat with a brutal right hand. Matthews hits the floor and rebounds in style, surviving a few ground strikes to fight to his feet. The Aussie is still with it despite suffering three knockdowns in the fight thus far, and he re-engages and clinches up to make certain his feet are beneath him again. Dean calls for Matthews to work while Matthews holds on tight, and Matthews breaks free and trips his man and cracks him with a left hand. The American staggers to the side but does not go down, and he resets to come forward. Matthews throws everything he has with a few rushing punches, but they all fall by the wayside as Semelsberger evades them. Semelsberger jumps forward with a knee, and he drops down for a low single, but neither succeed. Matthews connects with a few punches as he is light on his feet and bounces around, and he lets loose with a heavy salvo of punches on the inside until Semelsberger ties him up and goes after a single. Matthews hops away to keep his balance, and he gets shoved to the wall without going down. Matthews breaks free and strings a few punches together, but the high guard of Semelsberger protects himself from most of the harm. The two trade quick blows after the 14-minute mark, still showing plenty of gas left in the tank. The welterweights clash together, and Matthews hits a clean trip to dump the American to the floor. Matthews jumps on top in the guard, and Semelsberger wings punches and elbows from his back. The two slug it out horizontally until they reach the judges’ scorecards.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger (30-26 Semelsberger)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger (30-26 Semelsberger)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger (30-26 Semelsberger)

The Official Result
Matthew Semelsberger def. Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo loves Jake Matthews in this spot, citing that Semelsberger was taken down four times by AJ Fletcher on short notice and was out-volumed by Alex Morono. He believes Matthews will out-volume Semelsberger on the feet and take him down for control. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power keeps him live but prefers Matthews.

"I love Jake Matthews in this spot and the reason I love him is that semmonsberger versus AJ Fletcher fight AJ took Matt down 4 four times on short notice"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, emphasizing that Matthews has a clear path to victory through wrestling. He notes Semelsberger has a big hole in his takedown defense and has been submitted before. If Matthews wrestles, he should have success and can find a submission. However, if Matthews strikes, it could be close and he might get knocked out. He predicts a second-round submission.

Matthews wins by submission in round 2
"I'm gonna take Matthews to win by second round sub so give me Jake Matthews to win Jake Matthews to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, emphasizing his well-rounded game and development. He notes Semelsberger is big but not elite, and Matthews can win by wrestling or striking. He considers Matthews inside the distance but acknowledges Matthews has many decisions. He will play Matthews straight up.

Matthews inside the distance (considered)
"I think he gets it I really want to try a Matthews inside the distance... I'll just play the straight up Jake Matthews"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor picks Matthews, citing his improved timing and switch-ups, plus the wrestling threat. He thinks Semelsberger is still growing and needs more technique to feel confident. He notes Semelsberger can get shook early but Matthews should be able to delay his confidence.

"I think combined with the wrestling threat like there's yeah Jake matthews has a game that is really going to benefit from a I mean his athleticism"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Paul picks Matthews, noting he is coming into his own and looked great against Fialho. He thinks Matthews has a path to wrestling and can also win at range. He hates the price but believes it's about right. He is not sure if he will bet it because the line is accurate.

"Jake Matthews is the pick for me not sure if I'm gonna be betting it because I think the bookies got this line right"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The MMA Guru picks Jake Matthews over Matthew Semelsberger, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Matthews has hit a different level in his career, with crisp hands and improved boxing, as seen against Andre Fialho. He notes Matthews' underrated wins, including over Li Jingliang, and thinks he will box up Semelsberger for a 30-27 decision. He considers Semelsberger bottom-of-the-barrel, only beating lower-level opponents, and expects Matthews to mix in grappling if needed.

"Jake Matthews versus Matt simmonsberger no brainer Jake Matthews wins this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane agrees with Connor, noting Matthews has become a tricky fighter with good timing. He thinks Semelsberger needs more seasoning and a way to establish himself without a big right hand. He expects Matthews to win via power and switch-ups.

"I'm definitely still gonna pick matthews again the the power the switch ups"
LOSS vs Alex Morono
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 106 of 194 54% 119 of 209 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:24
Matthew Semelsberger 1 74 of 229 32% 86 of 241 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 30 of 69 43% 33 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matthew Semelsberger 0 22 of 75 29% 22 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Alex Morono 0 47 of 76 61% 47 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Matthew Semelsberger 0 26 of 87 29% 32 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
3 Alex Morono 0 29 of 49 59% 39 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Matthew Semelsberger 1 26 of 67 38% 32 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 106 of 194 54% 92 of 179 14 of 15 0 of 0 98 of 184 7 of 9 1 of 1
Matthew Semelsberger 74 of 229 32% 32 of 170 21 of 33 21 of 26 60 of 209 9 of 12 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 30 of 69 43% 24 of 62 6 of 7 0 of 0 27 of 64 3 of 5 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 22 of 75 29% 10 of 60 6 of 7 6 of 8 20 of 72 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 47 of 76 61% 42 of 71 5 of 5 0 of 0 45 of 74 1 of 1 1 of 1
Matthew Semelsberger 26 of 87 29% 14 of 69 4 of 10 8 of 8 20 of 78 1 of 1 5 of 8
3 Alex Morono 29 of 49 59% 26 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0 26 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 26 of 67 38% 8 of 41 11 of 16 7 of 10 20 of 59 6 of 8 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He favors Morono's volume and durability over Semelsberger's power. He notes Morono is a black belt in BJJ but rarely uses takedowns, so he expects a striking match. He is concerned about Semelsberger's power but thinks Morono's cardio and output will win rounds.

"i like moreno to win though i like moroni to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono as a dog, citing his higher level of competition, wins over Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, and a three-fight winning streak. He notes that Morono is local to Texas, has his own gym, and will be a fan favorite. He thinks both fighters will scrap toe-to-toe, but Morono's boxing and volume will earn him the win, possibly via decision. He also mentions that Semelsberger has regressed and is not elite.

"i feel like [morono] is going to come through with the victory and i plus money whatever i'll take the small shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel admits he is terrible at picking Morono fights. He sees Semelsberger as more athletic, bigger, and with a power edge. He notes Morono's experience and durability, but also his tendency to fatigue and his questionable chin. He thinks it will be a close three-round fight and slightly leans Semelsberger, but calls it a dog or pass situation and does not bet.

"I actually do see this being a dog or pass situation... a slightly lean Semelsberger."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Alex Morono

Preet bet Morono at +136, expecting his high output and forward pressure to overwhelm Semelsberger. He notes Morono's durability (only two KOs in career) and his ability to bank rounds with volume. He thinks Semelsberger may snipe him but believes Morono's style is difficult to deal with and that the Texas crowd will support him.

"i'm going someone's sorry well morono took the dog shot on him one unit plus 136"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul also picks Morono, agreeing it's a dog or pass situation. He notes that he's never been a Semelsberger truther and that Semelsberger had a close fight against UFC debutant AJ Fletcher. He thinks Morono's volume and experience will be key, and that the fight will likely go to decision with Morono getting his hand raised.

"complete dogger pass type of situation for me as well i've never been a semel's burger truther"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Matthew Semelsberger

The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger by KO in the first round. He expects Morono to land some early shots, but Semelsberger's defense and power will be key. Semelsberger will time Morono's body kick, land a right hand over the top, and finish with a vicious combo against the cage.

KO in round 1
"i'm gonna go matthew semelsberger first round ko"
WIN vs AJ Fletcher
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
KO (punch) R1 0:15 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matthew Semelsberger 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Martin Sano Jr. 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matthew Semelsberger 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Martin Sano Jr. 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matthew Semelsberger 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Martin Sano Jr. 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matthew Semelsberger 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Martin Sano Jr. 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Angelo picks Semelsberger, noting his aggressive striking and leg kicks. He points out that Sano hasn't fought in five years and is not UFC caliber, calling the fight a 'favor to Nick Diaz.' Angelo expects Semelsberger to win easily, though he won't bet the moneyline at -400.

Angelo suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a quick finish. He also mentions waiting for a prop bet.
"Matt semmelsberger is a pretty obvious pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He is very low on Martin Sano Jr., citing a 4.5-year layoff, poor takedown defense, bad cardio, and unimpressive striking. He believes Semelsberger should dominate, though he acknowledges some uncertainty due to Sano's long layoff.

second round knockout
"semmelsberger give me symbols burger by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Cody is confident Semelsberger wins, citing his size, strength, and wrestling. He notes Sano hasn't won a fight in years, has poor wrestling, and is only on the card due to his connection to Nick Diaz. He expects Semelsberger to dominate but warns against the heavy price.

Semelsberger inside the distance
"i think summersburg wins would i ever is there a world that exists that you'd want to pay five to one over matthew semesburger no"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel Levi picks Matthew Semelsberger, noting that he is the more physical fighter with better competition. He dismisses Martin Sano's win over Jeff Neal as occurring when Neal was green. Levi expects Semelsberger to win, likely by knockout, and mentions the line opened at -160 but moved to -500, which he finds interesting but still favors Semelsberger.

knockout
"give me matt semelsberger here probably a knockout somewhere along the way"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Jacob agrees Semelsberger will win, but he's interested in how Sano looks after the layoff. He notes that if Sano looks sharp, it could indicate Nick Diaz is also well-prepared. Jacob picks Semelsberger but will watch Sano's performance for future bets on Diaz.

Jacob mentions that if Sano looks good, he might bet on Nick Diaz. He also says he'll spend $9,400 on Semelsberger in DraftKings.
"simmonsburger is going to win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Matthew Semelsberger

The host picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by KO, specifically in the second round. He believes Semelsberger is the much better fighter and can win any way he wants unless he gets knocked out early. He notes Semelsberger's power and durability, referencing his ability to withstand damage from Chaos Williams. He thinks Sano is a brawler with a KO-or-bust style and will be in trouble if he doesn't finish early.

Semelsberger by KO at -135; second round knockout
"I'm actually gonna be going with someone's burger by ko which is sitting around -135 i think there's some decent value there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Paul picks Semelsberger, noting Sano's long layoff and lack of wins. He thinks Semelsberger is the clear favorite but the price is too high to bet. He expects Semelsberger to win but won't bet at -490.

"frankly this is a contender series fight at very best this is a contender contender series fight and we see those types of lines kind of all the time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The MMA Guru is very confident in Matthew Semelsberger, calling the fight one-sided. He criticizes Martin Sano Jr. as being in the UFC only because he is Nate Diaz's friend, noting his 4-2-1 record and three-year layoff. He expects Semelsberger to win by first-round KO, as he took shots well against Chaos Williams and has a great win over Jason Witt. He mentions that only 2% of people on Tapology pick Sano, implying the odds are heavily in Semelsberger's favor.

first round ko
"matthew semelsberg is going to annihilate him in the first round by ko"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He favors Morono's volume and durability over Semelsberger's power. He notes Morono is a black belt in BJJ but rarely uses takedowns, so he expects a striking match. He is concerned about Semelsberger's power but thinks Morono's cardio and output will win rounds.

"i like moreno to win though i like moroni to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono as a dog, citing his higher level of competition, wins over Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, and a three-fight winning streak. He notes that Morono is local to Texas, has his own gym, and will be a fan favorite. He thinks both fighters will scrap toe-to-toe, but Morono's boxing and volume will earn him the win, possibly via decision. He also mentions that Semelsberger has regressed and is not elite.

"i feel like [morono] is going to come through with the victory and i plus money whatever i'll take the small shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel admits he is terrible at picking Morono fights. He sees Semelsberger as more athletic, bigger, and with a power edge. He notes Morono's experience and durability, but also his tendency to fatigue and his questionable chin. He thinks it will be a close three-round fight and slightly leans Semelsberger, but calls it a dog or pass situation and does not bet.

"I actually do see this being a dog or pass situation... a slightly lean Semelsberger."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Alex Morono

Preet bet Morono at +136, expecting his high output and forward pressure to overwhelm Semelsberger. He notes Morono's durability (only two KOs in career) and his ability to bank rounds with volume. He thinks Semelsberger may snipe him but believes Morono's style is difficult to deal with and that the Texas crowd will support him.

"i'm going someone's sorry well morono took the dog shot on him one unit plus 136"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul also picks Morono, agreeing it's a dog or pass situation. He notes that he's never been a Semelsberger truther and that Semelsberger had a close fight against UFC debutant AJ Fletcher. He thinks Morono's volume and experience will be key, and that the fight will likely go to decision with Morono getting his hand raised.

"complete dogger pass type of situation for me as well i've never been a semel's burger truther"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Matthew Semelsberger

The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger by KO in the first round. He expects Morono to land some early shots, but Semelsberger's defense and power will be key. Semelsberger will time Morono's body kick, land a right hand over the top, and finish with a vicious combo against the cage.

KO in round 1
"i'm gonna go matthew semelsberger first round ko"