UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 11"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Michael Chandler
4.04 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.52 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.96 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tony Ferguson
4.91 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.37 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.39 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Michael Chandler
Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
FanDuel +110
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +250
Tony Ferguson
Moneyline
BetMGM +310
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
DraftKings +1300
Decision
BetRivers +700
Michael Chandler - Fight History
SCHED vs Maurício Ruffy
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)

AJ does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
KO R3 3:07 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chandler 0 11 of 28 39% 20 of 39 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:44
Paddy Pimblett 0 80 of 143 55% 121 of 197 1 of 2 50% 0 1 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chandler 0 5 of 11 45% 7 of 14 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:10
Paddy Pimblett 0 16 of 40 40% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chandler 0 5 of 14 35% 11 of 21 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:34
Paddy Pimblett 0 34 of 63 53% 49 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:15
3 Michael Chandler 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paddy Pimblett 0 30 of 40 75% 47 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chandler 11 of 28 39% 6 of 18 3 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 4
Paddy Pimblett 80 of 143 55% 61 of 119 4 of 5 15 of 19 43 of 96 4 of 5 33 of 42
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chandler 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 4
Paddy Pimblett 16 of 40 40% 7 of 28 1 of 2 8 of 10 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Chandler 5 of 14 35% 1 of 6 2 of 5 2 of 3 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paddy Pimblett 34 of 63 53% 26 of 53 1 of 1 7 of 9 19 of 41 4 of 5 11 of 17
3 Michael Chandler 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paddy Pimblett 30 of 40 75% 28 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 15 0 of 0 22 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-148), Chandler (+124)

Round 1
With plenty of bluster and hoopla surrounding the match, Chandler (23-9, 2-4 UFC) vs. Pimblett (22-3, 6-0 UFC) has now arrived. Perhaps unexpectedly, the Liverpudlian has a second home in Miami even though Chandler trains in Deerfield Beach, not far north from there. Far from a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup, this fight could end up anywhere. Because of that, referee Kerry Hatley has his running shoes laced up and ready to follow the lightweights wherever they may roam. Before the two get down to their non-title five-round pairing, they decide to touch gloves after all. Pimblett paws out a jab and a low kick to take advantage of his reach, and he hammers the front leg with two more kicks. Chandler’s leg is already welted less than a minute in, and Pimblett jams him to the body with a teep kick. Pimblett lashes out with another low kick, and Chandler ducks down and swings for the fences with a right hand. Pimblett darts out of the way and dings Chandler with an uppercut. Chandler tries to take the fight down, and Pimblett grabs the fence to prevent it. A second effort, where Chandler lifts “The Baddy” in the air to slam him down, results in a successful takedown. Chandler hangs on from behind, wrapping up his arms on the waist. Pimblett gets to a knee and hacks at Chandler without looking, elbowing “Iron Mike” on the nose. Pimblett threatens with a kimura, and Chandler lowers Pimblett down and hammers him in the face with a right hand to release the sub grip. Chandler imposes his weight on the former Cage Warriors fighter, and Pimblett suddenly jumps for a flying triangle choke. He succeeds in dragging Chandler to the floor, but there is no chance of him getting the choke as Chandler bucks out of it and resets. Pimblett follows him and slugs him in the face with a right hand, and his low kick right after it further damages his opponent. Chandler connects with a clean right, and Pimblett kicks him in the same spot on the front leg once more. Pimblett comes up short with a right hand, and he skips it off the shoulder when firing again. Chandler slips when backpedaling, just getting out of the way from two looping punches. Chandler sits down on a hard left, and Pimblett goes not flinch and instead throws back with a heavy right hand. Pimblett runs at him to keep attacking, forcing Chandler to ricochet off the fencing as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going again, and Pimblett reintroduces himself with a snappy jab. Chandler reddens his foe’s nose with his own jab, and he ducks down to evade the counter. Chandler walks into a few body shots, with Pimblett fighting smartly behind his jab. He strings a few punches together to make Chandler back off and regather himself, and he dings Chandler with a left hook and a leg kick. Chandler kicks him back, and he retreats to block a head kick. Chandler’s leg is getting beaten up from kicks, and Pimblett walks him down and jabs him up. Pimblett gets off a head kick that bangs into the neck, and he lands a low kick and three punches to follow. Chandler backs off, wipes his hand, and they kick at the same time. Pimblett groans as he takes the kick flush on the cup, and Hatley calls time. Pimblett calls Chandler a cheater, and they decide to high-five a couple times to bury any beef. Chandler shoots in for takedown when they restart, and Pimblett shuts it down and boots Chandler upside the head. Chandler counters with two hooks and a takedown shot, and he elects to lift Pimblett in the air and dump him to the ground. Pimblett works to a knee and upright, not allowing Chandler to control him, and he lets go more elbows on the face. Chandler hurls him to the mat again and takes his back, and he is too high and falls off the back. Pimblett asserts himself in top position, stepping into half guard and fastening up an arm-triangle choke. The Brit steps to the side while still holding the choke setup, and he looks to step into mount or otherwise advance to a dominant position. Pimblett lets go of the grip to hack down with elbows, and Chandler explodes only to give up his back. Pimblett gets a hook in and bowls Chandler over, where he proceeds to leap into mount and lash out with elbows. Chandler spins around, his back still taken, and Pimblett wraps the body triangle around his waist. Pimblett smacks the former Bellator champ upside the head, and he prevents Chandler from turning with his body lock. Pimblett lumps Chandler up with a few 12-to-6 elbows as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett

Round 3
Ice is spilled in Chandler’s corner, and commentator Joe Rogan does not freak out. Hatley has to use a towel to clean the area, and the fighters re-engage when he says fight. Chandler ducks in to punch, and he walks face-first into a destructive knee that splits his cheek wide open. Pimblett rushes after him, and Chandler explodes with a huge right hand. Pimblett measures his options, and he decides to lift the former Bellator great in the air and throw him down. Pimblett immediately assumes back control, getting one hook in, and Chandler looks to his team for answers. Pimblett elbows a few times, landing one on the back of the head, and Hatley warns him for the foul. Chandler keeps swaying and moving to recover, and Pimblett goes for a rear-naked choke grip. When Pimblett releases it, he slashes down with elbows to target the large cut on Chandler’s cheek. Pimblett nails Chandler with another elbow, and he shifts into mount and keeps attacking. Chandler turns through to not get caught in a choke, and blood pours down his face. Pimblett postures up to rain down elbows and punches, and Hatley is watching closely. Pimblett rains down elbows and punches, unleashing one last hellacious salvo of offense that makes Hatley say enough is enough. “The Baddy” dismounts his defeated foe, and he shouts to the camera, “What now?” Chandler returns to his feet, and he is ushered out of the cage to seek immediate medical attention, in part due to the substantial gash on his cheek. Happy as a claim, the victorious Pimblett dances around, and he brushes his face to indicate that he did not take any damage while throwing down with the heavy-handed Chandler.

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Michael Chandler R3 3:07 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Connor picks Chandler, arguing that despite Chandler's recent losses, he remains a powerful wrestler and striker who has hurt every opponent he's faced. He notes that Pimblett's cardio is suspect and that Chandler's functional aggression in later rounds could be decisive. Connor believes Pimblett's striking has improved only in that he makes fewer mistakes, but he still lacks the tools to handle Chandler's pressure and power. He sees Chandler's wrestling as a key advantage, even if Chandler's technique has declined.

Chandler inside distance +180/+200; fight ends in submission +170 (but notes Chandler rarely submitted)
"I just have to pick Michael Chandler. You know, I have this damning feeling. There's a five rounder, by the way, we should make note of that. The Pimblitz is going to get absolute."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Levi notes that Paddy Pimblett destroyed Michael Chandler, outstriking him 8 to 1 and winning by TKO via elbows in round three. He calls it one of the best bets of the year at minus 150. He believes the market hasn't caught up on Pimblett yet, offering value.

One of the best bets of the year at minus 150
"One of the best bets of the year, too, at minus 150."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Lucrative James picks Paddy Pimblett to win, citing Chandler's volatility and potential decline. He notes that Chandler has been out of the octagon for two years waiting for Conor McGregor, which may have aged him. He believes Pimblett has better durability, range control, and fight IQ. He expects Pimblett to find a submission, possibly a guillotine, as the fight progresses. He acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but thinks Pimblett can weather the early storm and take over.

He predicts Pimblett wins inside the distance via submission, possibly a guillotine.
"I'm going to pick Paddyy Pimplet here. I'm going to pick him inside the distance at some point. He finds his submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Zane picks Pimblett, but hesitantly, because he sees Chandler as prone to creating scrambles and giving up his back, which is Pimblett's strength. He notes that Chandler is a powerful wrestler but has been reckless and hittable, and that Pimblett's submission game could capitalize on Chandler's tendency to get into messy positions. Zane acknowledges that Chandler has the tools to win and that this should be a bridge too far for Pimblett, but he feels Chandler's willingness to engage in chaos favors Pimblett.

Fight doesn't go the distance -500; Pimblett inside distance -120; Chandler inside distance +180/+200; fight ends in submission +170
"I'm going to take Pimblitz. I just see. I think if it's going to be stupid and it's going to be stupid and Pimblitz could easily get knocked out. This should be the point where it stops working. It really …"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 88 of 122 72% 117 of 153 5 of 12 41% 2 0 14:52
Michael Chandler 0 84 of 113 74% 150 of 181 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 11 of 16 68% 18 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:31
Michael Chandler 0 8 of 9 88% 35 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Oliveira 0 24 of 35 68% 27 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
Michael Chandler 0 15 of 22 68% 38 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Oliveira 0 27 of 36 75% 41 of 51 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:11
Michael Chandler 0 13 of 19 68% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Charles Oliveira 0 14 of 18 77% 15 of 19 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:55
Michael Chandler 0 8 of 16 50% 10 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Charles Oliveira 0 12 of 17 70% 16 of 21 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:27
Michael Chandler 0 40 of 47 85% 52 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 88 of 122 72% 56 of 82 18 of 25 14 of 15 67 of 98 3 of 5 18 of 19
Michael Chandler 84 of 113 74% 59 of 85 16 of 18 9 of 10 60 of 89 0 of 0 24 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 11 of 16 68% 4 of 7 3 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 8 of 9 88% 4 of 5 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Oliveira 24 of 35 68% 19 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 21 1 of 1 12 of 13
Michael Chandler 15 of 22 68% 11 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 1 15 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Oliveira 27 of 36 75% 21 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 2 21 of 28 2 of 4 4 of 4
Michael Chandler 13 of 19 68% 8 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 4 13 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Charles Oliveira 14 of 18 77% 7 of 11 6 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
Michael Chandler 8 of 16 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Charles Oliveira 12 of 17 70% 5 of 8 2 of 4 5 of 5 12 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 40 of 47 85% 30 of 36 9 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 23 0 of 0 24 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Angelo picks Charles Oliveira but is hesitant. He acknowledges Chandler's incredible shape and the possibility of a smart game plan, but trusts Oliveira's well-rounded game and the fact that he already beat Chandler. He warns against putting Oliveira in parlays due to the uncertainty.

Angelo warns not to put Charles Oliveira in 30 parlays, indicating he sees risk.
"I have to pick Charles Olivera because I know what I'm going to get from him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira by second-round submission. He expects Chandler to hurt Oliveira early, as he often gets dropped, but believes Oliveira's heart and durability will carry him through. He notes that Chandler fades in later rounds and has poor submission defense, as seen against Dustin Poirier. He predicts Oliveira will survive the first round and submit Chandler in the second.

"I like Ola uh last time he knocked out Chandler in the second round this time I think he's going to submit Michael Chandler in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody picks Charles Oliveira, expecting him to weather Chandler's early storm and finish him in the second round. He notes Chandler's athletic but low-volume style leads to gassing, and Oliveira is a zombie who fights better after getting dropped. Cody predicts Oliveira by submission or knockout inside the distance, likely by submission.

inside the distance, likely by submission
"I got oliv a oliv a inside the distance likely by submission but again I can see The Knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Connor also picks Oliveira but with hesitation, noting that Chandler has the power to knock him out and that Oliveira's chin may be fading. He points out that Oliveira's comeback ability is key, but Chandler's aggression could overwhelm him. Connor thinks Oliveira's submission threat and durability give him the edge, but it's a toss-up.

Fight could end via KO/TKO or submission; Oliveira likely to win but not confidently
"I'm gonna pick charles olivera. Yeah, me too... but it is fundamentally a fight in which sort of anything can happen."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Oliveira, arguing that Chandler redlines early and if he doesn't finish Oliveira, Oliveira will come back and finish him. He highlights Oliveira's calf kicks, submission threats off his back, and ability to extend his records. He notes Chandler's tendency to fade and make mistakes, as seen in the Poirier fight.

"If you do not finish Oliva he's going to come back and finish you and I think that's exactly what's going to happen Saturday night"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Vreeland picks Oliveira because Chandler has a long layoff and was preparing for Conor McGregor, a completely different fighter. He notes that even in their first fight, Chandler's early success faded as he walked into punches and submissions. Vreeland believes Chandler will be rusty and Oliveira's durability and ground game will be too much.

"Charles Oliva is the pick here I I think the layoff I don't think he's going to be good for Chandler"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Fox picks Oliveira, noting that Chandler's UFC record is poor (2-3) and he has been inactive. He believes Oliveira is better in all aspects at this point and that Chandler's obsession with McGregor hurt his preparation. Fox is confident Oliveira wins.

"Ola is obviously a picker he's already proven he knows how to do this and Chandler's falling off way more long ago"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Lucrative James picks Charles Oliveira to win but is hesitant, noting the line (-275) may be too wide. He acknowledges Chandler's power and explosivity, and that Chandler almost finished Oliveira in their first fight. However, he believes Oliveira has more tools—better striking at all ranges, brutal clinch work, and superior submission grappling—and a better gas tank for five rounds. He also mentions Chandler's fragile chin and tendency to get hurt, but admits Chandler has a good shot and the odds (+225) are disrespectful.

"I have to pick Charles oliera to get the win he's got more tools to get it done right he's a better Striker by far he's got way more tools he's brutal in the clinch he's brutal at every range."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Charles Oliveira

The host recalls Chandler's success in the first round of their first fight, getting two 10-8s, but ultimately getting knocked out early in the second. He believes Oliveira still holds all the advantages but can be touched up. He loves the under 1.5 rounds and leans Oliveira, but notes Chandler as an underdog above +200 is worth considering.

under 1.5 rounds, Chandler underdog above +200
"I do believe that Oliva will still hold all the advantages in this matchup but he can be touched up and dinged and possibly put away I love the under one and a half in this spot I am going …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul picks Charles Oliveira, noting Chandler's two-year layoff and 1-3 record in his last four. He expects Chandler to have a good first round but fade, and Oliveira to find a finish. Paul mentions the gloves change might affect submissions but still likes Oliveira inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

inside the distance
"Charles by finish Charles inside the distance which isn't going to be very generous but uh it is what it is"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, predicting a rear-naked choke in the first or second round. He believes Chandler makes too many mistakes and that Oliveira will catch a kick and take him down. He notes Chandler's inactivity and age as factors.

rear-naked choke, first or second round
"I'm going to go Charles Oliva and I'm going to say Charles Oliva gets it done by run naked choke first or second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Zane picks Oliveira but is hesitant, acknowledging that Chandler could easily knock him out. He notes that Oliveira's style is high-risk and he often gets hurt before recovering, and that Chandler's power and aggression make this a dangerous fight. Zane believes Oliveira's durability and ability to find submissions will prevail, but it's not a confident pick.

Fight could end via KO/TKO or submission; Oliveira likely to win but not confidently
"I'm gonna pick charles olivera. Yeah, me too... but it is fundamentally a fight in which sort of anything can happen."
LOSS vs Dustin Poirier
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 38 of 76 50% 63 of 105 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 43 of 100 43% 65 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 28 of 57 49% 31 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 23 of 69 33% 24 of 73 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:05
2 Dustin Poirier 0 2 of 3 66% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 18 of 25 72% 39 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:34
3 Dustin Poirier 0 8 of 16 50% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 38 of 76 50% 34 of 71 2 of 2 2 of 3 32 of 66 3 of 4 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 43 of 100 43% 32 of 80 10 of 17 1 of 3 25 of 76 2 of 2 16 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 28 of 57 49% 25 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 25 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 23 of 69 33% 16 of 54 6 of 12 1 of 3 21 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Dustin Poirier 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 18 of 25 72% 16 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 21
3 Dustin Poirier 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Dustin Poirier
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Poirier (-210), Chandler (+180)

Round 1
Two of the lightweight division’s best action fighters are set to square off, and both Poirier and Chandler are hoping to get back in the championship picture after recent losses in title bouts. Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the cage. Chandler misses on a big low kick. Poirier misses his first leg kick too, and Chandler answers with a right hand. Chandler comes forward and lands a hard body kick. Chandler shoots and Poirier shucks him off. Poirier jabs the body. Chandler has a leg kick checked. Chandler pressures with punches and front kicks, but Poirier defnds well. Moments later, a right lands clean for Chandler, and Poirier is on the defensive. Chandler lands some heavy shots with his foe’s back to the fence. Poirier gets off the fence and they’re back in the center of the cage. Chandler is swinging heavy leather as usual. A crisp right connects for Poirier. They collide heads and Chandler tees off with right hands. he backs Poirier into the fence and continues to land power punches. Poirier looks hurt and Chandler takes him down near the fence. Chandler thinks about a kimura, but Poirier scoots to the fence. Chandler almost jumps on the back as Poirier works his way up. Chandler has a body lock and he gets Poirier down once, then follows with a suplex. Poirier is right back up, and he’s moving forward with punches now. They’re trading, and it’s Poirier who buckles his man with a right. Poirer goes on the attack, and he’s unloading on a reeling Chandler near the fence as time runs out. Chandler, whose face is battered and bloodied, may have been saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Poirier

Round 2
Poirier sticks a jab at the outset. Chandler presses forward with a body-head combo followed by a kick. That sets up a high amplitude takedown, and now Chandler is in Poirier’s closed guard. Poirier lands elbows from his back. Chandler is leaking blood from his nose, and it’s getting all over Poirier. Poirier is framing a triangle, but Chandler passes and takes the back. Chandler attempts to get his left arm under the chin, but Poirier defends well. Chandler gets both hooks in and continues to hunt for the choke. Chandler is too high and the choke isn’t under the neck, but he is winning the round at this point. Chandler continues to hold a dominant position, but Poirier is able to turn and get his back to the cage. Poirier has full guard and he frames a kimura. Chandler makes him eat a big right and he gives up on that. Chandler switches to hammerfists and Miragliotta warns him for landing blows to the back of the head. Chandler relents and he traps the wrist of Poirier while landing solid right hands to the head. Chandler stays heavy on top as the round draws to a close, and he’ll end a dominant frame in top position.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chandler

Round 3
Poirier attacks the lead leg of Chandler. Poirier with a straight left. Chandler blocks a head kick and then is denied on a half-hearted takedown. Chandler pressures behind a combination and changes levels. He gets a high crotch and lifts Poirier for a slam, only to see Poirier scramble into top position on the deposit. From there, Poirier transitions to the back of his opponent. Poirier has a body triangle secured with Chandler still on his knees in the center of the Octagon. Poirier locks in a rear-naked choke and falls back to the canvas, drapping his adversary with him. Poirier’s arm is under the chin and the squeeze is tight. Chandler has no choice but to tap in a matter of seconds.

The Official Result
Dustin Poirier def. Michael Chandler via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R3 2:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but does not trust him to fight to win rather than slug it out. He believes Poirier is the smarter, more composed fighter focused on winning a title. He picks Poirier because Chandler cannot be trusted to try to win, though he expects an exciting fight.

"Dustin Poirier is the pick but literally because Michael Chandler can't be trusted to try to win a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Poirier is the better technical striker with better cardio, and that Chandler's chin is questionable after taking damage. He compares it to Chandler's fight with Gaethje, but notes Poirier has more power and better cardio. He expects a stand-up war with no takedowns, and that Chandler will slow down as the fight goes on.

Poirier by KO in round 2; fight of the night candidate
"I think pooria does finish him this time around I think pooria does finish him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody picks Michael Chandler as a plus money underdog, expecting chaos in the fight. He notes that both fighters will eat massive shots and that Chandler has a legitimate chance on any given night due to his athleticism, wrestling, and power. Cody believes Chandler's willingness to throw down and his durability make him live at the plus price, and he sees the fight as a 50/50 proposition.

"I'm drawn to Chandler here strictly because I expect chaos in this fight... I see a plus 190 price tag on a fight that I could really see going both ways."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to knock out Michael Chandler, citing Poirier's volume, knockout power, and finishing ability when he smells blood. He notes that Chandler is susceptible to calf kicks and tends to get wild, which could lead to a straight left from Poirier. Levi respects Chandler's explosiveness and D1 wrestling but believes Poirier's experience and the 'Poirier Blitz' will be the difference. He mentions that he wanted to bet Poirier but missed the line at -175, so he is passing on a bet. He also discusses the danger of Chandler's one-punch power and the potential for a first-round knockout from either side.

Predicts a knockout win for Poirier; odds mentioned: Poirier -210, Chandler +180 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with poora here to knock out Michael Chandler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The host sees Poirier as the better technical striker and believes his discipline will keep him out of trouble. He acknowledges Chandler's power and speed but thinks Poirier will outbox him and potentially get a late KO. He notes the line at -210 is a bit wide but still picks Poirier. He expects knockdowns and a possible finish from Poirier.

"I think that the safer and better fighter is Dustin Poirier I think he gets his hand raised here by knockout later in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Dustin Poirier by TKO, believing Poirier's boxing combinations and durability will be the difference. He notes that Chandler has durability issues and has been knocked out before, and that Poirier's pressure and volume will break Chandler down. Paul also mentions that Poirier is highly motivated and looks good in training, and that Chandler's recklessness could lead to him getting caught. He prefers the Poirier by TKO prop at plus money.

Poirier by TKO at +120
"I'm gonna go the other side and take Dustin Poirier... I feel like Poirier puts him away and if he can put him away we're good... I'm gonna take the Poirier by TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Poirier, emphasizing Chandler's tendency to get hit and Poirier's granite chin and experience against elite competition. He believes Poirier will trade in the pocket and finish Chandler with a first-round TKO, noting that Chandler only shoots takedowns when hurt and may gas from wrestling. He references Chandler's struggles against Ferguson on the feet.

TKO at the end of round one
"I'm going dust Emporia man Chandler gets hit too much"
WIN vs Tony Ferguson
KO (front kick) R2 0:17 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chandler 1 27 of 53 50% 43 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:31
Tony Ferguson 0 20 of 50 40% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chandler 0 26 of 52 50% 42 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:29
Tony Ferguson 0 20 of 50 40% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chandler 1 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Tony Ferguson 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chandler 27 of 53 50% 15 of 39 6 of 8 6 of 6 18 of 38 0 of 0 9 of 15
Tony Ferguson 20 of 50 40% 13 of 38 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 42 0 of 0 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chandler 26 of 52 50% 14 of 38 6 of 8 6 of 6 17 of 37 0 of 0 9 of 15
Tony Ferguson 20 of 50 40% 13 of 38 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 42 0 of 0 3 of 8
2 Michael Chandler 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chandler (-380), Ferguson (+290)

Round 1
At one time, Ferguson (25-6, 15-4 UFC) had amassed an outstanding 12-fight win streak, where he claimed the interim title at one point, but he has fallen on hard times the last few years. On a three-fight skid, “El Cucuy” is at a crossroads at the age of 38, and he will take on hard-charging, granite-chinned Chandler (22-7, 1-2 UFC) in a match that still holds significance at 155 pounds. Referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full depending on how this battle plays out, and these two hope to bring out a firefight while not bothering to touch gloves. Ferguson reaches out with a low kick to see how far he can reach, and Chandler picks his leg up and scoots back. Ferguson arcs out a standing elbow, expecting Chandler to come at him, but Chandler does not oblige. Ferguson’s front kick brushes pass Chandler’s hand, and Chandler chops down the leg with a pair of heavy kicks. Chandler just misses with a left hook, and Ferguson meets him in the middle with his own left. Ferguson clips the former Bellator champ with a left hand, and he kicks high and stings Chandler. Ferguson hurts him again with a few punches, and he backs Chandler up to the wall. Ferguson does not go wild, instead working the body and getting caught with a left hand. They trade heavily and both connect and get the other’s attention, and it is Ferguson that lands the flusher strikes and backs Chandler off. Chandler throws a leg kick, only to get countered over the top. Blasting through with a double, “Iron Mike” knocks Ferguson clean off his feet with a tackling takedown, and Ferguson kicks off the fence and slashes with elbows off his back to open a cut on Chandler’s head. Ferguson cleverly holds on to Chandler with his feet on his hips, and he pushes Chandler off and nearly flips his man over as he keeps a high guard and attempts to hook up an omoplata. Ferguson snatches hold of a triangle choke until Chandler blasts him in the face, and he loads up on several punches to make Ferguson readjust his attempts at submission. Ferguson protests that Chandler is lowering his head down and clacking him in the face with his forehead, and Herzog warns Ferguson for grabbing the fence. Ferguson turns and nearly sweeps, but Chandler deftly remains on top and gets off some short ground-and-pound. Ferguson hacks with elbows off his back, and the blood from Chandler is leaking down into Ferguson’s eyes. Chandler looses a few punches and cuts Ferguson’s right eye, and the thrilling round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson

Round 2
Between rounds, Chandler’s right eye swells up substantially, but he does not appear remotely concerned about it as the round opens up. Before Ferguson can throw a single punch, Chandler summons all of his strength and calls on the legends of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida to empower his right leg. In the most spectacular move tonight by a landslide, Chandler smashes the ball of his foot into Ferguson’s chin, and the light fades from Ferguson’s eyes in an instant. “El Cucuy” topples over, completely unconscious, and he slumps over on his face and is communing with his ancestors. Chandler celebrates, knowing there is nothing left for him to do today, and he hits several back flips in rapid succession, sticking the landing for each and every one. The video cuts to Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett in the crowd, and appropriately so, as this knockout might have topped her incredible spinning back elbow earlier this year with the cleanest front kick knockout you will ever see. As Chandler is with his team, Ferguson is still out, but he finally manages to come around to the delight of everyone in the building. What an incredible knockout, one that will stand on highlight reels for years to come. Absolutely amazing. To top it off, Chandler calls for a fight with Conor McGregor in his post-fight interview, but good luck getting “Notorious” to take that fight after witnessing that astounding knockout.

The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Tony Ferguson R2 0:17 via KO (Front Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Angelo picks Michael Chandler, stating that everything Tony Ferguson does well, Chandler does better. He believes Chandler's chin has held up after the Gaethje war and expects a war similar to Chandler's last fight. He notes that Ferguson may not be the same after the Gaethje loss.

"every single thing that tony does well michael chandler does it better"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Big Brady picks Michael Chandler to win by decision. He notes that the blueprint to beat Ferguson is to take him down and control him, as Oliveira and Dariush did. However, Chandler is more of a striker and may not follow that blueprint. Brady thinks Chandler's power and wrestling could still get the job done, and he expects Chandler to mix in takedowns and win minutes on top. He is not laying -400 on Chandler but believes he will cruise to a decision. He acknowledges Ferguson's toughness and danger on the feet but thinks Chandler is closer to his prime.

decision
"I'll take chandler to you know strike with ferguson mix in the takedowns and if he does mix in those takedowns I think he will be winning minutes on the mat on top staying safe"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody picks Michael Chandler but also dislikes the -380 price. He provides a detailed breakdown of Ferguson's decline, noting that Ferguson hasn't looked good in years, even in wins. Cody points out that Ferguson's game hasn't evolved, he trains alone, and his unorthodox style is no longer effective. He believes Chandler's wrestling and power will be too much, and that Chandler can take Ferguson's best shots. Cody expects Chandler to dominate early and possibly knock Ferguson out, but acknowledges Ferguson could win 3 out of 10 times.

"i expect chandler to absolutely dominate early um probably land big and uh if ferguson survives things could get interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler confidently, though he does not bet the fight due to the high price. He notes Chandler's first-round explosiveness and wrestling fallback, while Ferguson has declined significantly, losing 11 straight rounds. He thinks Chandler's speed and power are too much for this version of Ferguson, but he is not interested in laying -425. He passes on betting entirely.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds prop but does not play it.
"I obviously favor Chandler to win because even if he doesn't find that round one finish, I do think he can go back to that wrestling base."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chandler

The host picks Michael Chandler to win by first-round knockout. He questions Chandler's wrestling approach, expecting him to stand and trade. He notes Ferguson's unorthodox style and durability, but believes Chandler's power will find the chin early. He is not betting Chandler at -400, but likes 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -180 and Ferguson submission at +750 as small shots. He acknowledges Ferguson's crafty jiu-jitsu and Chandler's history of being knocked out.

fight doesn't go to decision -180; Ferguson by submission +750; Ferguson round 3 KO +3300
"i'm going uh chandler first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Paul picks Michael Chandler to win but is not confident at -380. He thinks Ferguson is washed and that Chandler will dominate early, possibly getting a finish. However, Paul is more interested in the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +150, citing Ferguson's durability. He notes that Ferguson has only been knocked out once (by Gaethje) and is tough to finish, so the decision prop offers value.

fight goes to decision at +150
"i think chandler wins probably not round one maybe around maybe he gets a finish but i'm actually been kind of more interested i see uh some alternate lines out there for like fight goes to decision plus 150"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler by first-round KO, believing Tony Ferguson is done. He argues Ferguson's ground game is overrated and that Chandler can take him down or KO him. He notes Chandler's speed and leg kicks, and that Ferguson's chin is up in the air. He thinks Chandler will slip inside Ferguson's jab and land a big right hand. He also mentions Chandler has more to fight for, including a potential McGregor fight.

"i'm gonna go michael chandler first round ko"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 1 116 of 183 63% 133 of 205 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Michael Chandler 0 103 of 245 42% 104 of 246 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 40 of 77 51% 41 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 49 of 99 49% 50 of 100 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Justin Gaethje 1 38 of 60 63% 51 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Michael Chandler 0 24 of 69 34% 24 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 38 of 46 82% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Michael Chandler 0 30 of 77 38% 30 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 116 of 183 63% 83 of 143 7 of 12 26 of 28 102 of 164 5 of 5 9 of 14
Michael Chandler 103 of 245 42% 64 of 199 28 of 35 11 of 11 99 of 241 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 40 of 77 51% 27 of 58 3 of 7 10 of 12 36 of 73 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 49 of 99 49% 35 of 85 7 of 7 7 of 7 46 of 96 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 38 of 60 63% 29 of 51 2 of 2 7 of 7 30 of 47 0 of 0 8 of 13
Michael Chandler 24 of 69 34% 11 of 51 10 of 15 3 of 3 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 38 of 46 82% 27 of 34 2 of 3 9 of 9 36 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
Michael Chandler 30 of 77 38% 18 of 63 11 of 13 1 of 1 29 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Justin Gaethje

Round 1
Strap in, fight fans, the “Just Bleed” fight of the year is upon us: Gaethje (22-3, 5-3 UFC) and Chandler (22-6, 1-1 UFC) are about to throw down. Referee Mike Beltran doesn’t know what to do with his hands, he’s so excited for what is about to happen before our very eyes. Needing no further introduction, the lightweights touch gloves and come out swinging. Gaethje opens with a leg kick, and Chandler is right there to throw bombs. Another successful leg kick for Gaethje scores, and Chandler is aiming his left hook. The leg kick continues to do damage for Gaethje, who rolls from the power punches and measures his own right. Gaethje scores a right hook, ducks a right hand counter and scores a heavy leg kick. They both start throwing caution to the wind, and they start slamming their fists into one another’s chins just as everyone had hoped. Chandler starts getting off his own leg kicks to surprise Gaethje, and these two are throwing everything they have in their punches. There is no feeling-out process, and even Chandler’s jab is a power punch. Gaethje walks through a huge right hand as if it were never there, and he sits down on another leg kick as Chandler starts to pop out a jab. Chandler has a jab countered with a calf kick, and he meets Chandler with a huge left hand that stuns the former Bellator champ. Chandler measures himself and throws a huge right hand that hurts Gaethje. They are blasting each other, and no fear is shown between the two. Gaethje gets rocked with a flying knee and a few punches, and he stings him with punches and forces Gaethje to back up wobbled to the fence. Gaethje might be slightly out on his feet, but he still bites down on his mouthpiece and nails Chandler right back. Chandler is throwing power punches that are nearly making him fall over, and both men are damaged but still throwing. This is insanity! The punches begin to mount as Chandler’s face is busted up, and he spits out some blood. Gaethje gets off a few uppercuts and a leg kick, and Chandler shoots in for a takedown but gets stuffed. The leg kick from Gaethje makes Chandler switch stances briefly, and he chains it together with a couple punches. Chandler spits out blood and fires right back in a round that is instantly in contention for “Round of the Year.” The action goes right to the bell, and they touch gloves after a ridiculous five minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 2
The second round begins and they meet in the center of the cage. Chandler is flinching from possible leg kicks, and he hops back when Gaethje fakes to throw one. A right hand from Gaethje makes Chandler wag his finger at him, and Gaethje smashes his shin into Chandler’s calf. Chandler may be hobbled but he is still winding up with haymakers. Gaethje scores a pair of right hands, and Chandler returns fire only to have his lead leg kicked hard. Gaethje stings Chandler with a right hand, and then a left hand on the temple sends him reeling. Gaethje clips him with an uppercut, and Chandler backs off to recover. Gaethje lets him do this, and he times a crisp uppercut. A second uppercut sends Chandler flying to the ground, and Gaethje pounces to try to finish the job. Beltran lets them fight on as Chandler survives. A desperation takedown try from Chandler lets him get his wits about him, as he pursues a low single that is stuffed without any concern at all. Gaethje rips the body with right hands as they are both on their knees, and he flirts with an anaconda choke setup before opting to circle around and take Chandler’s back. Instead of going after submissions, he backs off to let Chandler stand back up. Chandler’s face is a bloody mess but he is still game and in this fight, nodding when Gaethje lands cleanly on him. Chandler tags his opponent with his own uppercut, and then he shoots in for a takedown that gets stuffed. Gaethje steps in with an uppercut, and Chandler reels and reacts with a right hand that knocks Gaethje back. Gaethje reintroduces his shin to Chandler’s leg, and the former Bellator king’s leg is jacked up but he is able to remain on his feet. Gaethje takes a deep breath as Chandler attacks, and Chandler assaults the body with a short barrage of blows. Gaethje aims for his uppercut, but Chandler nails him with a right hand and then gets off an eye poke. Beltran does not know what to do, so he lets Chandler punch Gaethje in the face once before intervening. Beltran gives Gaethje a brief respite and asks if he is good, and then they resume. A few more punches land from both men before the horn sounds, and Gaethje complains to Beltran about the poor handling of the eye poke.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje

Round 3
The gladiators touch gloves to clock in the third round, and Gaethje leads off with a nasty calf kick. Gaethje flicks out a jab and then hits Chandler in the leg so hard that Chandler spins around. Chandler is forced to switch stances because of the clear pain in his face, and Gaethje lands a few punches and then kicks the leg when Chandler goes back to orthodox stance. Chandler gets off a huge right hand, and Gaethje eats it like a steak and fires right back. The former Bellator champ aims a massive right hand that connects with the side of the head, but Gaethje rolls through it. Chandler gives chase and digs punches to the body a few times, and the body shots are getting reactions out of Gaethje. Gaethje chops down the leg, and an uppercut and a left hand snap Chandler’s head back. Gaethje cannot believe that Chandler is still standing, so he kicks the leg hard enough to nearly buckle Chandler’s legs. Chandler grabs hold of Gaethje, and although he picks Gaethje up and slams him to the ground, as soon as they hit the mat, Gaethje gets on top. Gaethje rips a few right hands that hurt Chandler for the umpteenth time, but Chandler is incredibly tough and fights through it to get back to his feet. When they get back to striking range, Chandler waves Gaethje on and starts throwing everything he has left. He manages to rock Gaethje with a few punches, and Gaethje wobbles but still manages to sling back a right hand that would have felled a bull moose. Gaethje blasts his opponent with a right hand, and Chandler drops his hands and is somehow still on his feet. Gaethje does this again, and he follows this one with a leg kick as Chandler is barely on his feet. Having switched stances from the damage of the kicks, Chandler signals to the crowd to get pumped up as if they were not already on their feet for the last 14 minutes. They take a moment to measure themselves, and Chandler leaps in the air with a jumping switch kick that is nowhere near the mark. Gaethje calmly, comfortably stalks Chandler down, and Chandler’s hands are down by his waist as he springs back and forth. Chandler jumps with a punch, and Gaethje kicks him in the chest. When the bell sounds, this absolutely incredible slugfest comes to a shocking end, and they hug it out and high five after the most obvious “Fight of the Night”-winning battle this year. It would behoove you to watch this fight as soon as you can, if you have not seen it yet reading this play-by-play – the sheer ferocity of this battle could not quite be captured in all of its grandeur.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (30-26 Gaethje)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (30-26 Gaethje)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (30-26 Gaethje)

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Michael Chandler via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Angelo picks Michael Chandler, but hesitantly. He believes Chandler's wrestling threat and power give him an edge, and that Gaethje's chin will eventually give out. He notes that Gaethje gets hit a lot and that Chandler can take him down. However, he worries about Chandler's chin and his tendency to brawl. He thinks if Chandler wrestles, he wins; if he stands and trades, it's dangerous.

Moneyline bet on Chandler at +165
"i'm gonna pick chandler and it goes again like my mouth and head are saying chandler and my body are like no why are you doing that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Big Brady picks Justin Gaethje to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gaethje's better cardio and durability, while Chandler fades after the first round and has a questionable chin. Brady thinks Chandler will be live early with power and potential submissions, but if it gets past the first round, Gaethje will take over and knock him out. He expects a stand-up war with Gaethje finishing Chandler in the second.

second round knockout
"give me a second round knockout for justin gaijin"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Cody strongly favors Gaethje, citing his legendary durability and Chandler's history of fading and getting knocked out. He highlights Gaethje's leg kicks targeting Chandler's weak calves and believes Chandler needs a quick KO to win. He expects Gaethje to get the job done, likely by TKO.

"you got to go with justin gates who's got legendary durability"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Daniel Levi leans toward Justin Gaethje as a pure pick but considers the fight a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability, but notes that Chandler is explosive early and could knock Gaethje out. Levi mentions that Gaethje has been rocked in many fights and that Chandler's cardio is a concern if the fight extends. He says the opener was closer to -140, and at -225 he disagrees with the value, but picks Gaethje to win.

dog or pass; opener was -140
"a pure pick i'll go gaichi because i do think that his durability might be slightly better"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Jacob is extremely confident in Michael Chandler, calling him the lock of the week. He believes Chandler will use his wrestling to dominate Gaethje, who is useless on the ground. He notes that Gaethje's wins are overrated and that Chandler has a clear path via takedowns. He also mentions that Chandler is a Missouri wrestler who coaches wrestling. He has a parlay with Chandler and Colby Covington.

Parlay with Colby Covington
"michael chandler is going to absolutely destroy and embarrass justin gagey... chandler is the lock of the week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Justin Gaethje

The host picks Gaethje by second-round TKO, citing his pace, leg kicks, and improving boxing. He expects Chandler's blitzing style to fade. He prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -300/-350 as a safer play.

Fight doesn't go to decision (-300/-350)
"i'm going justin gaichi and i'm going to take him to win by second round ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Paul leans Gaethje based on durability, believing Gaethje's chin and cardio are superior to Chandler's. He notes Chandler's history of slowing down and getting knocked out in later rounds. He suggests Gaethje inside the distance at -115, preferring the ITD prop over KO only.

Gaethje inside the distance (-115)
"i'm gonna lean towards geichi here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

The Guru picks Michael Chandler, believing Gaethje's wrestling deficiencies will be exposed. He notes Gaethje's poor performance against Khabib and his inactivity. The Guru thinks Chandler's chain wrestling, body shots, and power will be too much, and predicts a rear-naked choke submission in round one or two. He also mentions Chandler is a big underdog, implying value.

rear naked choke round 1 or 2, chandler big underdog
"I'm picking michael chandler over justin gateshea."
TKO (punches) R2 0:19 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 2 24 of 32 75% 32 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Michael Chandler 0 30 of 55 54% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 10 of 15 66% 18 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:39
Michael Chandler 0 28 of 51 54% 34 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:27
2 Charles Oliveira 2 14 of 17 82% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Chandler 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 24 of 32 75% 20 of 26 1 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 20 3 of 3 8 of 9
Michael Chandler 30 of 55 54% 22 of 42 6 of 10 2 of 3 13 of 26 0 of 0 17 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 10 of 15 66% 6 of 10 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 4
Michael Chandler 28 of 51 54% 21 of 39 5 of 9 2 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 17 of 29
2 Charles Oliveira 14 of 17 82% 14 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9 3 of 3 5 of 5
Michael Chandler 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oliveira (-258), Chandler (+210)

Round 1
In the main event of UFC 262 in 2021, Oliveira (34-10, 1 NC; 22-10, 1 NC UFC) and Chandler (23-8, 2-3 UFC) threw everything they had at one another for five minutes and 19 seconds of pure carnage. When the dust settled, the lightweight strap remained around the waist of “Do Bronx,” although Chandler had the champ on the ropes more than once in the first round. Three and a half years later, they meet again, again with five rounds to work but no gold up for grabs. Referee Keith Peterson will enjoy officiating this lightweight affair for as long as it lasts, and the fighters bump fists with ample respect for one another and a whole lot of excitement for what’s about to come. There will be no nonsense…inside the cage, at least. Around its perimeter, however, some may disagree. The fighters square up, with Oliveira moving to the center of the cage, and he backs off after an exchange and wipes at his eye as if he was poked. Chandler jabs at the right eye a few times, otherwise measured and not going wild like the first fight. Chandler connects with a left to the body and eats a right up top. Oliveira shoots in for a double, lifting Chandler up and not dropping him down because Chandler egregiously grabbed the top of the fence. This works to his disadvantage greatly, as Oliveira traps Chandler’s left leg and sits on top of Chandlers chest. Oliveira frees his left arm and swats at Chandler to make him think of other strikes, and Chandler hooks his leg around Oliveira’s right wrist and puts the limb in a triangle. Oliveira lowers himself down to wrench his arm out, and he wriggles it free and unwraps Chandler’s other hand from the back of his head. Chandler hangs on in hopes of a standup, and Oliveira sits up and starts pulsing his hips to yank his leg free to move to mount. All the while, Oliveira remains on top in control, with Chandler stuck unable to do anything but smack him on both sides of the head. Peterson pays close attention, asking for more action and warning Oliveira for putting his fingers in the cage to hang on and keep the position. Oliveira rides out the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and Oliveira walks Chandler down and paws out front kicks. Oliveira lets fly a leg kick that turns Chandler slightly, and he backs off and scores another before Chandler can reach him. Chandler jabs to the body and head, and he misses when swinging harder. Oliveira rushes forward, knocking Chandler to a knee courtesy of a three-punch combination. Chandler works his way up and escapes, and Oliveira follows him and clubs him with a powerful right hand. Chandler sprints away, tripping on the outer edge of the cage to try not to get cornered and hurt any further. Chandler smiles, bounces off the cage and attacks. Oliveira blocks and counters, kicking Chandler when resetting. Oliveira kicks high and stumbles his opponent, and he drives a knee to the chin. Chandler bites down on his mouthpiece and throws bombs, and one heavy left gets in. Oliveira pitches a front kick and rushes after the former Bellator champ, bowling him over with ease and landing into full mount. Oliveira stays tightly pressed to his adversary, getting in the occasional elbow before he is able to posture up. The elbows keep coming from the Brazilian, and every time he sits up, Chandler looks for a way to escape but is stifled each and every time. Oliveira’s elbows inflict damage, cutting Chandler slightly as they start to add up. Chandler tries to turn his head to the side, and Oliveira hacks down with 12-6 elbows when his corner reminds him he can use these strikes. Chandler looks to tug his fingers off the fence to get in better position, and Oliveira thumps him with a few more strikes before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 3
Chandler wipes his feet on the floor a few times before the round opens, and he is fired up and looking for offense as soon as it does. Chandler rushes forward, going past a front kick to back the Brazilian against the wall. Oliveira sticks out a left hand and a front kick to make Chandler retreat, and he crashes the pocket in pursuit of a labored takedown. Chandler gets out of the way and works the lead leg with a kick. Oliveira races after him, drilling Chandler with an uppercut and putting his back against the cage. Chandler sways and leans with his back on the wall, waiting for Oliveira to engage so he can counter. Chandler pounds his foe on the front leg, and he clips Oliveira. Oliveira gives him back an uppercut to think about, and he jumps at “Iron Mike” with a knee. Oliveira strides forward with the utmost of confident, letting Chandler have it and watching him swing way too hard. Oliveira strings an elbow into an uppercut and a level change, and Chandler defends the takedown that comes with a fence grab. Oliveira takes his back and gets both hooks in, and he secures the body triangle and squeezes it tight. Chandler hand-fights to keep his neck free of harm, and Oliveira complains of glove grabs. Chandler turns and twists, and Oliveira elbows him on the top of the head—these blows are still illegal because they are landing on the crown of the head. Peterson mentions this, and Oliveira adjusts his trajectory and keeps his right arm fastened on Chandler’s face to smack him with his free left hand. The Brazilian resets the body triangle, attempting to hook Chandler’s arm in the leglock but not successfully doing so. Oliveira wraps his arm on the chin, and he squeezes a face crank that does not have enough strength to stop him. Chandler turns and sits up, and he smiles at someone sitting cageside. The round ends, and Chandler lightly shoves the Brazilian away with a grin.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two touch ‘em up. Chandler swats away a few early kicks and swings hard with a right to the body. Oliveira chips at him with low kicks, walking through a Chandler strike to put a right hand on his chin. Chandler opens up with a left hand and is hurt from the response, but he knows Oliveira wants the finish and winds up with looping hooks. One big blow stings “Do Bronx,” and Oliveira closes in a bit more carefully so as to not get caught. Oliveira works his way in to wrap up Chandler and drag him down from behind, where he takes the ex-Bellator fighter’s back and wraps up a hook. Chandler turns to his stomach, and Oliveira wrenches on him to turn him to the side so he can complete a body triangle. “Iron Mike” knows the choke is incoming, so he retains an iron grip on the right wrist of his foe. Chandler turns all the way around, and Oliveira follows him but is unable to get both hooks in. Slowly and methodically, the Brazilian sneaks in the second hook, and he tries to force Chandler down to flatten him out. Oliveira wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Chandler yanks on Oliveira’s hand to break up the submission. Oliveira tries again, and Chandler grits it out and again survives the choke. Both fighters decide to go for anything else, and time eventually ticks away to conclude Round 4. Chandler, likely way down on the scorecards, flashes a grin to the commentary booth.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 5
The fighters double clap hands, and Chandler chooses not to participate in a hug or whatever else Oliveira offers. He comes out swinging, and a big left to the body lands hard. Oliveira intercepts him with a clean leg kick that hurts him, and he shoots in deep for a takedown that fails miserably. Seeing the leg kick is succeeding, he kicks the knee twice, and Chandler comes back at him with three powerful punches. Oliveira backs off, clutching his right eye—not the one that was poked early on Round 1. Oliveira falls over due to the oncoming fire, and he rolls over as Chandler smashes him time and again all to the back of the head. Peterson somehow allows a long series of blatantly illegal strikes, and Oliveira hangs on tight despite this. Chandler keeps on pounding on his opponent until Oliveira turns to his back. Peterson asks him to fight back, and Chandler slows down and does not want to burn himself out swinging so much, so hard. Oliveira miraculously sits up and works to his feet, and Chandler stalks him down and slings with bad intentions. Oliveira responds, and Chandler waves him on. Chandler swings as hard as he can and falls over, allowing Oliveira to take his back in a hurry. Oliveira wraps up a rear-naked choke that is on top of the chin—that is a face crank, not a choke—and Chandler’s toughness keeps him safe. Through sheer force of will, Chandler stands up despite Oliveira hanging on, and he screams “F--- yeah” and jumps in the air to slam Oliveira down with his own body adding to the impact. Oliveira hangs onto his back like a malicious backpack, and Chandler stands up again and once more smashes him down like a pro wrestler doing a super move. The crowd explodes in favor of Chandler’s high-amplitude attacks, and Oliveira is no worse for wear from the assault. Chandler taps Oliveira hands, not to surrender but to ask him if he is having fun yet. The five-round affair comes to a close, with high drama and excitement littered across this rematch. Both men put it out there and had a blast, and Chandler walks to his corner and collapses to his seat to catch his breath. Oliveira, on the other hand, climbs out of the cage to have a conversation with a few people watching, including the President-elect. What an interesting battle, and what a final round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chandler (49-46 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chandler (49-45 Oliveira)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chandler (49-46 Oliveira)

The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Michael Chandler via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Chandler has tremendous power and pressure, and Oliveira has been knocked out before. Chandler's takedown defense is excellent, so the fight likely stays on the feet where Chandler's power is a major threat. I think Chandler catches Oliveira early and finishes him in the first round by knockout. I also like the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds, under 3.5 rounds
"I do think michael chandler does get that first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody is confident in Michael Chandler as a plus-money underdog. He highlights Chandler's athleticism, explosiveness, and power, noting that he knocked out Dan Hooker in the first round. Cody believes Chandler can knock out Oliveira early, as Oliveira has a good chin but not a great one. He also mentions that Chandler's wrestling can stuff Oliveira's takedowns. Cody suggests a live betting strategy: bet Chandler after the first round if Oliveira survives, or bet Oliveira at plus money later. He notes the odds suggest the fight may not go past the second round.

Live betting: bet Chandler after first round if Oliveira survives, or bet Oliveira at plus money later. Over 1.5 rounds at -175, over 2.5 rounds at +105.
"I'm going to bet michael chandler here at plus money after the first round i can also have the option of now betting charles oliveira at plus money which would be plus money right right i have a plus money …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Charles Oliveira, citing his eight-fight win streak, improved striking, and mental fortitude. He notes Oliveira's evolution from a quitter to a composed fighter, and believes the mental game has finally caught up with his physical skills. Levi acknowledges Chandler's power and early-finish threat but thinks Oliveira's length, jiu-jitsu, and calf kicks will be key. He mentions that if Oliveira can overcome adversity like he did against Tamer, he will become champion.

calf kicks, submission or knee finish, mentions Chandler's chin and gas tank concerns
"i'm gonna go with charles oliveira man i think that it's just one of those things where he's not going to be denied on saturday night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

The host picks Chandler to land an early bomb and knock out Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's head movement is poor and Chandler has explosive power. He acknowledges Oliveira's improved striking and dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Chandler's wrestling and durability could be key. He says the under 2.5 rounds is his strongest read on the card.

Chandler by KO in round 1; under 2.5 rounds
"i'm going michael chandler i think he lands that bomb early here i think he puts charles oliveira out and we get a new lightweight champion i'm going michael chandler by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul is leaning towards Oliveira based on his longer, straighter punches and submission threat. He notes that Oliveira doesn't need a takedown to grab a hold and find a submission. However, he is not too confident and wants to watch the Ferguson vs Dariush fight first to assess if Ferguson is completely washed, which would devalue Oliveira's win. He mentions that Oliveira's performance against Ferguson could be inflated if Ferguson is done.

"I'm finding myself leaning towards charles de bruyne's aloe vera here but i kind of want to watch the tony ferguson fight versus benilderius which we'll talk about in the next fight before i make any action on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler to win by KO in the first round. He believes Chandler's explosiveness and power will be too much for Oliveira, who reacts poorly when hit hard. He predicts Chandler will dictate the pace, land a big right hand, and finish Oliveira against the cage. He also speculates Chandler may be on steroids.

Chandler wins by KO in round 1
"i'm going to go with michael chandler here"
WIN vs Dan Hooker
TKO (punches) R1 2:30 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chandler 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Hooker 1 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chandler 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Hooker 1 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chandler 8 of 19 42% 0 of 6 0 of 1 8 of 12 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 17 of 24 70% 12 of 17 4 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 10 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chandler 8 of 19 42% 0 of 6 0 of 1 8 of 12 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 17 of 24 70% 12 of 17 4 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 10 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Dan Hooker

Round 1
In our co-main event, “The Hangman” Hooker (20-9, 10-5 UFC) wins the prize of welcoming three-time former Bellator MMA lightweight champ Chandler (21-5, 0-0 UFC) to the UFC after years of speculating how he would fare inside the promotion. That time is now, and referee Marc Goddard will see to it that this fight takes place on the up-and-up. The fighters do not touch gloves before coming out swinging. Hooker gets crowded early on as he paws out long punches, and he lands a heavy leg kick. Chandler stops, stares at a retreating Hooker, and resets. Hooker gets off a few more chopping calf kicks, and Chandler is cocking back his right hand but not unleashing it. Chandler again looks frustrated at Hooker’s strategy, and he reaches but cannot connect with an overhand right. Hooker stays from a distanced with a few more leg kicks, and Chandler finally bears down on him looking for right hands. Chandler goes to the body and head with right hands, and he gets off a push kick that bounces Hooker off the cage. A Hooker calf kick makes Chandler take a weird step back, and gathers himself to advance and attack. A right hand to the body from Chandler is followed by a leaping left hook that could fell a much larger man. Hooker goes down in a heap, and “Iron Mike” charges forward to finish the job. The newcomer pounds away at Hooker with a fury, unloading strike after strike in a blistering pace until Goddard has seen enough. What a finish for Chandler, who then announces himself to the UFC, the lightweight division, Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov as the new king of the division with a killer promo that will put him on the map in a major way.

The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Dan Hooker R1 2:30 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Big Brady leans towards Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's reach advantage (75.5 inches vs 69 inches), durability, and power. He thinks Hooker's takedown defense (79%) will keep the fight standing, and that Chandler's history of being knocked out is a concern. He predicts Hooker wins by knockout.

knockout
"i'm going to go with hooker to win i'll save my knockout i'm gonna say he knocks out michael chandler here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler as the underdog, citing Chandler's D1 wrestling, power, and fresher mindset. He notes Hooker's recent damage and potential overrated status, but acknowledges Hooker's striking weapons like the knee up the middle and calf kicks. Levi believes Chandler can land a big right hand or use wrestling to control the fight, though he admits it's a close matchup.

Chandler by knockout or decision
"i'm gonna go with michael chandler i think it should be a pickle i think he's got a little fresher"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Hooker has a huge reach and height advantage, and he is excellent at using calf kicks to neutralize opponents. Chandler has a suspect chin and struggles with distance. Hooker's takedown defense has been excellent since moving to 155, stuffing 19 of 21 attempts. Chandler will have difficulty closing the distance and may get countered. I expect Hooker to win by knockout, possibly with a left hook or calf kick setup.

"I'm taking Dan Hooker and I might even take him by KO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker to win by KO in the first round, citing Hooker's calf kicks and reach advantage. He believes Chandler will struggle to get inside due to Hooker's length and will be vulnerable to a knee up the middle. He notes Chandler's history of leg issues (Brent Primus fight) and thinks Hooker's early calf kicks will slow Chandler's explosiveness. He also mentions Hooker's toughness and ability to survive grappling exchanges.

KO in first round, via knee up the middle
"dan hooker's gonna be waiting for him with a knee up the middle and he's gonna smash it straight on his chin and finish michael chandler in the first round brutally"
Tony Ferguson - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:44 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 10 of 18 55% 4 of 9 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 4 of 25 16% 3 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 10 of 18 55% 4 of 9 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 4 of 25 16% 3 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.

"Michael Kessa is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.

Tony Ferguson by submission +1400; fight ends by submission
"I'm going Cas a first round sub don't mind the sprinkle on the Tony Ferguson sub don't mind the fight ends by sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.

"I honestly do feel my heart like it's it's closer than that and for that reason wild Underdog pick I think I'm gonna go with Tony Ferguson as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.

"I refuse to give a pick on this one I you will not catch me dead saying the pick is minus 750 Michael Kessa in a UFC fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.

Ferguson by submission +1200; would not tie -610 to parlays
"I'm still going to lean on Kessa to win this matchup by decision but no way would I tie minus 600 to any parlays the value is clearly on the Ferguson side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.

"I bet Tony Ferguson plus 500 and I'm expecting the worst but uh hoping for the best."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age (40) and inability to wrestle. He expects Chiesa to use his size and strength to take Ferguson down and submit him, possibly by arm triangle. He notes Ferguson's training at Knuckleheads Boxing is not improving his game. He predicts a first or second round submission.

submission, arm triangle, round 1-2
"I'm going with Michael ker I think he's too big too strong and he'll out wrestle Tony Ferguson"
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 62 of 105 59% 90 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 1 106 of 165 64% 151 of 217 1 of 4 25% 0 0 8:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 29 of 55 52% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 1 70 of 104 67% 76 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Paddy Pimblett 0 11 of 18 61% 18 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 19 of 27 70% 46 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:20
3 Paddy Pimblett 0 22 of 32 68% 41 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 17 of 34 50% 29 of 49 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 62 of 105 59% 35 of 66 23 of 35 4 of 4 51 of 91 0 of 0 11 of 14
Tony Ferguson 106 of 165 64% 73 of 127 13 of 17 20 of 21 66 of 109 0 of 0 40 of 56
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 29 of 55 52% 16 of 32 10 of 20 3 of 3 29 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 70 of 104 67% 43 of 72 11 of 15 16 of 17 54 of 82 0 of 0 16 of 22
2 Paddy Pimblett 11 of 18 61% 8 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Tony Ferguson 19 of 27 70% 16 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 18
3 Paddy Pimblett 22 of 32 68% 11 of 19 11 of 13 0 of 0 16 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 7
Tony Ferguson 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, stating that Tony Ferguson is a shell of his former self and that Paddy is a young, cocky prospect. He notes that Paddy is in his 'anti-40 parlay' and expects a dominant win, though he feels bad for Ferguson.

Anti-40 parlay leg
"a young cocky Patty is going to win this fight... Patty the baddy wins he is in that anti 40 parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round submission, expressing strong disapproval that the fight is happening. He notes Tony Ferguson's six-fight losing streak, age (39), and accumulated damage, particularly after the Gaethje fight. Brady believes Ferguson is a shell of his former self, citing his poor performance against Bobby Green. He expects Pimblett to dominate and finish via submission or corner stoppage.

"give me Patty pimp to win this fight I'll say second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Cody picks Pimblett, arguing that Ferguson's last two fights showed he is shot, and that Pimblett's strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Ferguson has given up 11 minutes of control time in recent fights and cannot get back up. Cody also mentions that Pimblett has taken a year off to refresh and is training with good partners, while Ferguson's personal issues and drinking have affected his performance.

Paddy by submission
"got to go Patty this is another case in point where it's like the money line don't make sense so yeah he's the pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett, though he expresses sadness about picking against Tony Ferguson. He notes that Ferguson can no longer take a hit, especially after the Michael Chandler head kick. Vreeland believes Pimblett hits hard enough to knock out Ferguson, and that Ferguson's only path to victory is an early submission, which is unlikely. He expects Pimblett to win by knockout.

inside the distance at +115
"pimblett is the obvious pick here probably via finish"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Jeff Fox picks Paddy Pimblett, stating that Ferguson is on a six-fight losing streak and has been finished in three straight. He notes that Pimblett is younger and more active, and that Ferguson's chin is gone. Fox believes Pimblett will finish Ferguson, possibly by knockout or submission.

inside the distance at +115
"I'm gonna take Patty pimp"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Lucrative James is extremely confident Paddy Pimblett will win, calling it a setup fight. He believes Tony Ferguson is completely washed and on a seven-fight losing streak. He thinks Paddy will submit Ferguson, noting that Ferguson got submitted by Bobby Green and controlled by Charles Oliveira. He says Paddy should be a much heavier favorite and that the fight likely won't go to decision.

Paddy by submission.
"Paddy is going to run through Tony Ferguson... I think Paddy's going to submit him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The host picks Pimblett but with low confidence, noting that Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a long losing streak. He expects Pimblett to walk Ferguson down, land big shots, and take him to the ground to grind out a decision, similar to how Oliveira and Dariush beat Ferguson. However, he is wary of the minus 285 line and acknowledges Ferguson could pull off a submission if he hurts Pimblett. He calls it a 'tailor-made' fight for Pimblett but expresses unease.

Pimblett by decision
"I'm still going with Patty I think Patty uh likely I think I went with yeah I think he grinds this fight out very low confidence there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Paul picks Pimblett, stating that Tony Ferguson is 'absolutely cooked' after a six-fight losing streak. He notes that Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and has no ability to get back up once taken down, as seen against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Paul believes Pimblett's strength and top control will be enough, and that the year off will have refreshed Pimblett. He expects a good version of Pimblett.

Paddy by submission
"Tony's so cooked... Patty the baddy for me I think Tony's just absolutely cooked"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's decline, especially his wrestling defense and inability to get back up. He believes Pimblett is too big and strong, and that Ferguson's legs are shot from training with David Goggins. He predicts Pimblett will take Ferguson down, get his back, and submit him with a rear-naked choke in round one.

Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1
"I'm going paddy piml and I think what's going to happen is Ferguson's going to be looking good on the feet piml let's going to get take down pick him up dunk him on the ground... and sub him... via …"
LOSS vs King Green
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 4:54 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 54 of 123 43% 62 of 138 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:13
Tony Ferguson 0 137 of 217 63% 145 of 227 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 14 of 42 33% 15 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Tony Ferguson 0 40 of 72 55% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 16 of 36 44% 23 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 49 of 77 63% 57 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:36
3 King Green 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 48 of 68 70% 48 of 68 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 54 of 123 43% 38 of 98 11 of 18 5 of 7 50 of 118 2 of 2 2 of 3
Tony Ferguson 137 of 217 63% 95 of 166 24 of 31 18 of 20 115 of 183 1 of 1 21 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 14 of 42 33% 11 of 33 2 of 6 1 of 3 14 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 40 of 72 55% 23 of 50 7 of 10 10 of 12 39 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 King Green 16 of 36 44% 14 of 32 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 3
Tony Ferguson 49 of 77 63% 38 of 66 8 of 8 3 of 3 31 of 48 0 of 0 18 of 29
3 King Green 24 of 45 53% 13 of 33 7 of 8 4 of 4 23 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 48 of 68 70% 34 of 50 9 of 13 5 of 5 45 of 64 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo is very confident in Bobby Green, mainly due to Tony Ferguson being a shell of his former self after taking severe beatings. He notes Green's volume, accuracy, and takedown defense, and believes Green will outpoint Ferguson. He also suggests a sneaky bet on over 1.5 rounds because Green is not a one-punch KO artist and Ferguson is durable.

over 1.5 rounds
"Bobby is a very confident pick here I think a sneaky good bet is going to be over one and a half though if we're lucky enough to get a one and a half round line I think the over …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by third-round knockout. He believes Tony Ferguson is washed after taking life-changing damage and looking terrible in recent fights. He notes Green is not a finisher but expects him to finish Ferguson, possibly by mercy stoppage. He thinks this fight should not be sanctioned and predicts the end of Ferguson's UFC run.

third round knockout
"give me Bobby green third round knockout and I think this will be the end of Tony Ferguson in the UFC"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing Ferguson's decline after taking life-changing damage from Gaethje and Chandler. He notes Ferguson's takedown defense is poor (only one takedown in eight years) and his wrestling hasn't materialized. Green's boxing, takedown defense, and volume should outpoint Ferguson. He likes the prop of Green and over 1.5 rounds at -132.

Bobby Green and over 1.5 rounds -132
"I like Bobby green one of the sites that I bet at had like a Bobby green and over one and a half rounds at minus 132"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
King Green

James believes Ferguson is done, having lost five in a row and showing diminished durability and submission defense. He thinks Green can win, possibly by knockout, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He leans under due to Green's recent finishes and Ferguson's decline.

under 2.5 rounds at plus money
"I can't put my money on Tony Ferguson at this stage of his career the guy's done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
King Green

Ferguson is on a five-fight losing streak and looks done. Green is a much more effective boxer than Diaz and will be aggressive after his last fight ended in a no contest. Green should outpoint Ferguson and possibly get a late stoppage. I'm leaning Green by decision but he might be more aggressive.

"I'm still going to lean with him to winning by decision as my final prediction but I think that we'll see him be a little bit more aggressive than we've seen in the past"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, arguing Ferguson's wins haven't aged well and his style is outdated. He highlights Green's counter-punching and takedown defense, and Ferguson's lack of power and inability to overwhelm Green. He expects a decision win for Green with Ferguson bleeding and behind on the scorecards.

"I gotta go with Bobby green everybody seems like they're on the same page"
LOSS vs Nate Diaz
Submission (guillotine choke) R4 2:52 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Diaz 0 101 of 217 46% 101 of 217 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 80 of 172 46% 80 of 172 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Diaz 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Diaz 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nate Diaz 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Nate Diaz 0 25 of 51 49% 25 of 51 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Diaz 101 of 217 46% 71 of 178 21 of 30 9 of 9 99 of 214 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 80 of 172 46% 23 of 106 23 of 27 34 of 39 80 of 172 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Diaz 22 of 51 43% 12 of 36 6 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 19 of 45 42% 5 of 28 7 of 8 7 of 9 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Diaz 28 of 59 47% 19 of 49 7 of 8 2 of 2 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 20 of 51 39% 5 of 35 6 of 6 9 of 10 20 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nate Diaz 26 of 56 46% 21 of 48 2 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 30 of 51 58% 12 of 31 5 of 5 13 of 15 30 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Nate Diaz 25 of 51 49% 19 of 45 6 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 11 of 25 44% 1 of 12 5 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Angelo picks Li Jingliang, citing Tony Ferguson's recent knockout and fast turnaround. He thinks Ferguson's chin is compromised and Jingliang's power and feints will confuse him. He notes Ferguson looked good against Chandler but was put out badly, and the three-month turnaround is too soon.

under on rounds (not specified which)
"I think he's blasted again and you know with that being said he did wrestle in college so he could do a grappling game plan but yeah we know him he's a warrior he's going to go out on his …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Li Jingliang to win by first-round knockout, expressing concern for Tony Ferguson's durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. He notes Ferguson is 38, moving up in weight, and has been knocked out brutally by Chandler. He highlights Li's power, having knocked out tough fighters like Ponzinibbio and Salikhov, and predicts an early finish.

first round knockout
"I think the leech knocks out Tony Ferguson and I think he does it in the first or second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody is confident that Khamzat Chimaev will win, noting that Chimaev is a massive favorite and that Nate Diaz is an undersized former 155-pounder. He believes Chimaev's size and strength will be too much, and that Diaz's jiu-jitsu won't be a factor. Cody mentions that the only value is in props like Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns, and he doesn't see Diaz winning even one out of ten times.

Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks; over 1.5 rounds at -165
"i don't even think nate diaz wins one out of ten times against times out chemical to be perfectly honest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, citing Chimaev's wrestling and power as key factors. He acknowledges Diaz's durability and ability to survive, but believes Chimaev's improvements and pacing will lead to victory. Levi notes that Diaz's age and scar tissue could be issues, and he expects Chimaev to dominate with ground and pound. He is not betting the moneyline due to the heavy juice, but is confident in Chimaev's win.

No value on moneyline; over/under not posted but curious about over 1.5 rounds due to Diaz's durability
"I gotta go with hamza chimayo up here... I'm just not sure if it's going to be a finish or if nate's going to last the full five which he is known for doing so."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jacob picks Li Jingliang, emphasizing his feints and angles will give Ferguson PTSD. He thinks Ferguson will be gun-shy and react big to feints. He notes Ferguson could wrestle but doubts he will, and even if he does, Jingliang's takedown defense may hold. He calls it a bad matchup for Ferguson.

"It would be the most Tony Ferguson thing ever to win this fight for that reason I didn't put any money on Lee the odds are getting a little bit wide now but he's still gonna I mean it's Tony …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)

The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.

under 1.5 rounds (+120), Khamzat Chimaev round one (+165 to +180)
"Hamzat is going to get Nate down without any issues and then he's going to smash him on the mat."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Chimaev to win but expresses concerns about his cardio and persona. He notes that Chimaev's fight with Gilbert Burns showed he is human and may have cardio issues, and that the five-round fight could favor Diaz if Chimaev tires. However, he believes Chimaev has learned from that fight and will hold down Diaz more easily. Paul also mentions the over 1.5 rounds and over on takedowns as props.

over 1.5 rounds; over on takedowns
"i think he wins i got the over one and a half and i've got the over on the takedowns just like you said"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Tony Ferguson

The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson to win by 48-47 decision. He predicts Ferguson wins rounds 1, 2, and 4, while Diaz wins round 3, and round 5 is a stalemate. Ferguson chews up Diaz's leg and body with teeps and front kicks, lands elbows that cut Diaz, and freestyles with 360 body shots. Diaz has moments, including a takedown in round 3, but Ferguson scrambles out and lands more. The fight ends with both swinging, but Ferguson's output edges him the win.

decision 48-47
"I believe Tony Ferguson is going to win this fight 48-47"
KO (front kick) R2 0:17 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chandler 1 27 of 53 50% 43 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:31
Tony Ferguson 0 20 of 50 40% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chandler 0 26 of 52 50% 42 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:29
Tony Ferguson 0 20 of 50 40% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chandler 1 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Tony Ferguson 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chandler 27 of 53 50% 15 of 39 6 of 8 6 of 6 18 of 38 0 of 0 9 of 15
Tony Ferguson 20 of 50 40% 13 of 38 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 42 0 of 0 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chandler 26 of 52 50% 14 of 38 6 of 8 6 of 6 17 of 37 0 of 0 9 of 15
Tony Ferguson 20 of 50 40% 13 of 38 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 42 0 of 0 3 of 8
2 Michael Chandler 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chandler (-380), Ferguson (+290)

Round 1
At one time, Ferguson (25-6, 15-4 UFC) had amassed an outstanding 12-fight win streak, where he claimed the interim title at one point, but he has fallen on hard times the last few years. On a three-fight skid, “El Cucuy” is at a crossroads at the age of 38, and he will take on hard-charging, granite-chinned Chandler (22-7, 1-2 UFC) in a match that still holds significance at 155 pounds. Referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full depending on how this battle plays out, and these two hope to bring out a firefight while not bothering to touch gloves. Ferguson reaches out with a low kick to see how far he can reach, and Chandler picks his leg up and scoots back. Ferguson arcs out a standing elbow, expecting Chandler to come at him, but Chandler does not oblige. Ferguson’s front kick brushes pass Chandler’s hand, and Chandler chops down the leg with a pair of heavy kicks. Chandler just misses with a left hook, and Ferguson meets him in the middle with his own left. Ferguson clips the former Bellator champ with a left hand, and he kicks high and stings Chandler. Ferguson hurts him again with a few punches, and he backs Chandler up to the wall. Ferguson does not go wild, instead working the body and getting caught with a left hand. They trade heavily and both connect and get the other’s attention, and it is Ferguson that lands the flusher strikes and backs Chandler off. Chandler throws a leg kick, only to get countered over the top. Blasting through with a double, “Iron Mike” knocks Ferguson clean off his feet with a tackling takedown, and Ferguson kicks off the fence and slashes with elbows off his back to open a cut on Chandler’s head. Ferguson cleverly holds on to Chandler with his feet on his hips, and he pushes Chandler off and nearly flips his man over as he keeps a high guard and attempts to hook up an omoplata. Ferguson snatches hold of a triangle choke until Chandler blasts him in the face, and he loads up on several punches to make Ferguson readjust his attempts at submission. Ferguson protests that Chandler is lowering his head down and clacking him in the face with his forehead, and Herzog warns Ferguson for grabbing the fence. Ferguson turns and nearly sweeps, but Chandler deftly remains on top and gets off some short ground-and-pound. Ferguson hacks with elbows off his back, and the blood from Chandler is leaking down into Ferguson’s eyes. Chandler looses a few punches and cuts Ferguson’s right eye, and the thrilling round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson

Round 2
Between rounds, Chandler’s right eye swells up substantially, but he does not appear remotely concerned about it as the round opens up. Before Ferguson can throw a single punch, Chandler summons all of his strength and calls on the legends of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida to empower his right leg. In the most spectacular move tonight by a landslide, Chandler smashes the ball of his foot into Ferguson’s chin, and the light fades from Ferguson’s eyes in an instant. “El Cucuy” topples over, completely unconscious, and he slumps over on his face and is communing with his ancestors. Chandler celebrates, knowing there is nothing left for him to do today, and he hits several back flips in rapid succession, sticking the landing for each and every one. The video cuts to Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett in the crowd, and appropriately so, as this knockout might have topped her incredible spinning back elbow earlier this year with the cleanest front kick knockout you will ever see. As Chandler is with his team, Ferguson is still out, but he finally manages to come around to the delight of everyone in the building. What an incredible knockout, one that will stand on highlight reels for years to come. Absolutely amazing. To top it off, Chandler calls for a fight with Conor McGregor in his post-fight interview, but good luck getting “Notorious” to take that fight after witnessing that astounding knockout.

The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Tony Ferguson R2 0:17 via KO (Front Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Angelo picks Michael Chandler, stating that everything Tony Ferguson does well, Chandler does better. He believes Chandler's chin has held up after the Gaethje war and expects a war similar to Chandler's last fight. He notes that Ferguson may not be the same after the Gaethje loss.

"every single thing that tony does well michael chandler does it better"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Big Brady picks Michael Chandler to win by decision. He notes that the blueprint to beat Ferguson is to take him down and control him, as Oliveira and Dariush did. However, Chandler is more of a striker and may not follow that blueprint. Brady thinks Chandler's power and wrestling could still get the job done, and he expects Chandler to mix in takedowns and win minutes on top. He is not laying -400 on Chandler but believes he will cruise to a decision. He acknowledges Ferguson's toughness and danger on the feet but thinks Chandler is closer to his prime.

decision
"I'll take chandler to you know strike with ferguson mix in the takedowns and if he does mix in those takedowns I think he will be winning minutes on the mat on top staying safe"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody picks Michael Chandler but also dislikes the -380 price. He provides a detailed breakdown of Ferguson's decline, noting that Ferguson hasn't looked good in years, even in wins. Cody points out that Ferguson's game hasn't evolved, he trains alone, and his unorthodox style is no longer effective. He believes Chandler's wrestling and power will be too much, and that Chandler can take Ferguson's best shots. Cody expects Chandler to dominate early and possibly knock Ferguson out, but acknowledges Ferguson could win 3 out of 10 times.

"i expect chandler to absolutely dominate early um probably land big and uh if ferguson survives things could get interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler confidently, though he does not bet the fight due to the high price. He notes Chandler's first-round explosiveness and wrestling fallback, while Ferguson has declined significantly, losing 11 straight rounds. He thinks Chandler's speed and power are too much for this version of Ferguson, but he is not interested in laying -425. He passes on betting entirely.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds prop but does not play it.
"I obviously favor Chandler to win because even if he doesn't find that round one finish, I do think he can go back to that wrestling base."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chandler

The host picks Michael Chandler to win by first-round knockout. He questions Chandler's wrestling approach, expecting him to stand and trade. He notes Ferguson's unorthodox style and durability, but believes Chandler's power will find the chin early. He is not betting Chandler at -400, but likes 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -180 and Ferguson submission at +750 as small shots. He acknowledges Ferguson's crafty jiu-jitsu and Chandler's history of being knocked out.

fight doesn't go to decision -180; Ferguson by submission +750; Ferguson round 3 KO +3300
"i'm going uh chandler first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Paul picks Michael Chandler to win but is not confident at -380. He thinks Ferguson is washed and that Chandler will dominate early, possibly getting a finish. However, Paul is more interested in the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +150, citing Ferguson's durability. He notes that Ferguson has only been knocked out once (by Gaethje) and is tough to finish, so the decision prop offers value.

fight goes to decision at +150
"i think chandler wins probably not round one maybe around maybe he gets a finish but i'm actually been kind of more interested i see uh some alternate lines out there for like fight goes to decision plus 150"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler by first-round KO, believing Tony Ferguson is done. He argues Ferguson's ground game is overrated and that Chandler can take him down or KO him. He notes Chandler's speed and leg kicks, and that Ferguson's chin is up in the air. He thinks Chandler will slip inside Ferguson's jab and land a big right hand. He also mentions Chandler has more to fight for, including a potential McGregor fight.

"i'm gonna go michael chandler first round ko"
LOSS vs Beneil Dariush
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 15 of 34 44% 37 of 59 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Tony Ferguson 0 23 of 55 41% 76 of 142 3 of 6 50% 1 1 12:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 10 of 28 35% 32 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:40
2 Beneil Dariush 0 2 of 4 50% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Tony Ferguson 0 6 of 14 42% 26 of 41 1 of 2 50% 1 1 4:04
3 Beneil Dariush 0 6 of 12 50% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 7 of 13 53% 18 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 15 of 34 44% 10 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 23 1 of 1 8 of 10
Tony Ferguson 23 of 55 41% 16 of 48 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 44 1 of 1 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 7 of 18 38% 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 4
Tony Ferguson 10 of 28 35% 6 of 24 1 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Beneil Dariush 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tony Ferguson 6 of 14 42% 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8
3 Beneil Dariush 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 5
Tony Ferguson 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush

Round 1
Up next is the long-awaited co-main event, which sees Ferguson (25-5, 15-3 UFC) try to snap the first losing streak of his career against the surging Dariush (20-4-1, 14-4-1 UFC). Hold on to your hats, this one is about to get crazy. Referee Mike Beltran clocks them in and they do not touch gloves, preferring to let their hands settle things instead. Ferguson stutter-steps forward into a left hand, but he is no worse for wear from it. Dariush kicks across Ferguson’s leg to his surprise, and he darts in with a left hook that falls short. Dariush charges in to attack, and Ferguson eats a few shots but is slick and moving everywhere to avoid the shots. Dariush scores another unusual leg kick to Ferguson’s rear leg, and Dariush is ready to brawl and throws hands to catch Ferguson off-guard. Dariush presses forward, and he hits a body lock takedown to plant Ferguson on his back. Ferguson kicks him off, scores an upkick, and pulls a high rubber guard when Dariush climbs back down. Dariush ignores it and pushes through to land a few punches to the body, but “El Cucuy” is holding him tight and elbowing him on the side of the head a few times. Ferguson looks to set up a triangle choke, but when that fails, he recovers his guard. Dariush sits up to start nailing Ferguson with punches and elbows, and Ferguson takes them on the chin all while continuing to hack back with elbows. Ferguson rolls over to nearly sweep Dariush, but he is pushed back over and finds himself surrendering half guard. Dariush steps over to set up an arm-triangle choke, and Ferguson looks to roll through and attack with an armbar as he pushes off the fence. Dariush sees it coming and flows with him, where he slides into Ferguson’s butterfly guard. The Kings MMA fighter resecures half guard, and he steps over to the other side to land some ground-and-pound. When Dariush looks to congratulate him for the round, Ferguson pushes him away to go back to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 2
The second round begins with Ferguson taking the center of the cage, and Dariush kicks his lead leg. Ferguson falls down Dariush looks to take him down. Instead of succumbing to a bad position, Ferguson attacks a brabo choke from his back against the wall. Dariush stays patient and unconcerned with the submission until Ferguson bails on it, where he looks to pull Ferguson’s legs out from beneath him. Dariush pulls him off the fence to put Ferguson flat on his back, and Dariush in full guard starts slugging away at Ferguson. Dariush ignores Ferguson’s flailing on his back to smash his fists on Ferguson’s head, and elbows and punches land until Ferguson tries to push him away. Dariush stays committed to keeping Ferguson grounded, and Ferguson attacks with a submission to get Dariush to back off. Ferguson sweeps Dariush in a wild scramble, and Dariush pulls him back down to attack a heel hook. Ferguson is in serious agony, and he grimaces but does not yell out and instead kicks Dariush in the chest to break the grip. As Dariush loosens the grip, he climbs over on top. Dariush steps into half guard, where he threatens with an arm-triangle choke but is more intent on smothering Ferguson’s face with his chest. Ferguson elbows him a few times, but Dariush does not care as he stays pressed heavy to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 3
Ferguson’s leg is severely compromised from the heel hook, and he tries to use his tricky movement but does not have his wheels about him. Dariush walks through any strikes to grab hold of Ferguson, and “El Cucuy” latches on to a guillotine choke. Dariush lifts him up and slams him down, where he breaks the grip and gains an advantageous position. The two end up in a north-south position as Ferguson kicks off the fence, but Dariush expertly traverses the guard to try to get side control. The crowd chants “stand them up,” and these chants echo through the Toyota Center, Beltran asks the fighters to keep moving. Dariush pulls on his adversary to try to get Ferguson’s legs away from the cage, and the two are in a grappling stalemate with no strikes thrown of any kind. Dariush grinds his elbow on Ferguson’s chin, and Ferguson holds on tight but is not doing anything of note either. This odd north-south posture continues as fans grow more restless, and Dariush hops over to side control. Ferguson looks to set up an arm-triangle choke from his back like Maurice Greene pulled off on Gian Villante, but Dariush breaks the grip and hops over on top. Ferguson rolls through and the two get back to their north-south with Ferguson’s feet on the cage, and Dariush spins through to try to land strikes. Ferguson closes his guard and Dariush lands a few short punches to the body. Dariush finishes the fight with a few punches from above, and Ferguson answers with elbows to end this disappointing yet one-sided lightweight clash.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)

The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Ferguson has taken massive damage and looks diminished. Dariush is a BJJ black belt with good striking and takedowns. He can implement a similar game plan to Oliveira: take Ferguson down and control him. Ferguson is tough to finish, so I expect a decision win for Dariush.

"I'll take minil daryush i'm gonna say he wins by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Cody also picks Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline and poor game plans. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging and he hasn't knocked anyone out in years. Cody believes Dariush is a thinking man's fighter who will use takedowns and top control to win. He points out that Ferguson's takedown defense is weak and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Cody expects Dariush to win the first round and then secure a decision.

Live betting: back Ferguson after the first round if he drops it. Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i'm going to go with daniel daryush and uh neil darius by decision due to the takedowns that'll be the difference"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline since his knee injury and the Gaethje fight. He notes Dariush's six-fight win streak, knockout power, and jiu-jitsu credentials, and believes Dariush can mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Levi is concerned about Dariush's tendency to leave openings and gas, but thinks Ferguson's durability and chin have diminished. He expects Dariush to dominate and win via decision or late stoppage.

mentions Dariush's chin and gas tank as concerns, but still picks him
"i'm going to go with neil daryus to get this one done here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The host picks Dariush but is not confident, noting Ferguson's chaotic style could cause problems. He thinks Dariush should have a grappling advantage and grind out a decision, but worries about Ferguson's ability to create volatility. He says he is not running to the betting window on Dariush.

Dariush by decision
"ultimately i will go with neil i'll go with him to win this fight and grind this fight out by decision but i'm not right right run into the to the betting window to bed darry you share"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Paul picks Dariush, citing Ferguson's decline. He notes that Ferguson has lost to elite guys and looked abysmal in his last two fights. Paul believes Dariush's wrestling and game planning will be key, as he can take Ferguson down and neutralize him, similar to what Oliveira did. He mentions that Ferguson's takedown defense is poor and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Paul expects Dariush to win by decision, using takedowns to control the fight.

Live betting opportunity: back Ferguson after the first round if he drops it. Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (48.5 for Dariush, 38.5 for Ferguson).
"i'm going to go with daniel daryush and uh neil darius by decision due to the takedowns that'll be the difference"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age and recent decline. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging poorly and that Dariush thrives under chaos, which is key against Ferguson. He predicts Dariush will control the fight with grappling and win a unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going with benildaryushman"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 19 of 42 45% 26 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Tony Ferguson 0 41 of 63 65% 86 of 112 3 of 3 100% 3 0 11:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 16 of 28 57% 28 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:35
2 Charles Oliveira 0 6 of 7 85% 11 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 12 of 16 75% 34 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
3 Charles Oliveira 0 2 of 6 33% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Tony Ferguson 0 13 of 19 68% 24 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 19 of 42 45% 14 of 29 3 of 10 2 of 3 15 of 38 1 of 1 3 of 3
Tony Ferguson 41 of 63 65% 26 of 43 7 of 11 8 of 9 17 of 34 0 of 0 24 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 11 of 29 37% 7 of 21 2 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 16 of 28 57% 12 of 22 1 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 19 0 of 0 7 of 9
2 Charles Oliveira 6 of 7 85% 5 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 3
Tony Ferguson 12 of 16 75% 6 of 9 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 10
3 Charles Oliveira 2 of 6 33% 2 of 3 0 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 13 of 19 68% 8 of 12 3 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 9 0 of 0 9 of 10
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson to win by third-round knockout. He believes Ferguson's pace and volume will break Oliveira, who has cardio issues and has been finished in six of seven losses. He notes Oliveira's improved striking but thinks Ferguson's pressure and durability will be key. He is not in love with the -170 line but might look at inside the distance or under props.

inside the distance, under 2.5 rounds
"i'm going with ferguson to get a third round knockout win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Daniel acknowledges Ferguson's historical superiority and higher level of competition, but expresses concerns about Ferguson's recent interviews and potential damage from the Gaethje fight. He thinks Oliveira's boxing has improved but is not convinced Oliveira has truly turned a corner. He ultimately picks Ferguson but calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting he is not confident.

dog or pass
"i'm gonna row with tony ferguson to get this one done but uh we'll see what happens man this is a fight that i'm very very intrigued to watch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Ferguson's relentless pressure and unorthodox style will break Oliveira, who has historically folded under pressure. Oliveira's best chance is an early finish, but if it goes past the first round, Ferguson will drown him. Ferguson's cardio and durability are superior. Expect a second-round TKO or submission for Ferguson.

Under 2.5 rounds; Ferguson by second-round TKO or submission
"i'll go with tony ferguson to win this fight probably by second round uh ko or submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson, despite many picking Oliveira. He believes Ferguson's chin, experience against better competition, and ability to win on the feet will be key. He expects Ferguson to win by TKO in the third round. He notes Oliveira's tendency to slow down and fail at the top level.

TKO in the third round; draw is a good bet
"i'm going to go with t ferg a lot of people disrespecting tony ferguson i feel like a lot of people want me to kind of pick charles olivieri here i'm going to go with tony ferg"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
TKO (punch) R5 3:39 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 136 of 296 45% 136 of 296 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 143 of 197 72% 143 of 197 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 26 of 37 70% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 37 of 50 74% 37 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 24 of 69 34% 24 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Justin Gaethje 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Justin Gaethje 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 34 of 39 87% 34 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 136 of 296 45% 64 of 212 36 of 43 36 of 41 136 of 296 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 143 of 197 72% 100 of 153 13 of 14 30 of 30 143 of 197 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 10 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 26 of 37 70% 15 of 25 4 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 33 of 64 51% 17 of 47 3 of 4 13 of 13 33 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 37 of 50 74% 24 of 37 4 of 4 9 of 9 37 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 24 of 69 34% 13 of 57 5 of 6 6 of 6 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 20 of 35 57% 14 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 20 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Justin Gaethje 36 of 73 49% 17 of 50 13 of 16 6 of 7 36 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 26 of 36 72% 18 of 28 1 of 1 7 of 7 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Justin Gaethje 14 of 36 38% 4 of 22 5 of 6 5 of 8 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 34 of 39 87% 29 of 34 1 of 1 4 of 4 34 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Interim Lightweight Title Fight Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje

Round 1
Here we go, folks. It’s time for the main event, and the bonus checks have practically already been written for these two. For the interim lightweight belt, and a chance to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a potentially thrilling encounter between Ferguson (25-3, 15-1 UFC) and Gaethje (21-2, 4-2 UFC). Together, the two have pocketed 15 post-fight bonuses in their last 16 fights, and referee Herb Dean will look to keep things clean as they head into glorious battle. The glove touch leads into a few seconds of circling until Ferguson throws a front kick. Gaethje opens up with a leg kick, but it is shy of the mark. Tony turns his back to showboat a little, and then throws a superman punch that chains into a two punch combination. Gaethje loses his balance, but regains it quickly to throw a heavy left hand. Ferguson rolls with it, and eats a leg kick. Ferguson takes another hard leg kick and tries to counter over the top, but Gaethje is ready for him with a two-punch salvo. Ferguson scores an inside leg kick that slightly trips Gaethje, but “The Highlight” still manages to land a right hand. A thumping left hook from Gaethje surprises Ferguson, but “El Cucuy” is not too concerned with it. Ferguson jabs to the body and ducks down just in time to avoid a lethal left hook. Ferguson catches Gaethje with a head kick and immediately sticks him with a jab. Gaethje bullies him over, and Ferguson rolls out to get back up. Gaethje connects with another nasty leg kick, and both swing with crazy right hands that just miss. “The Highlight” scores a few more short kicks, and Ferguson is smiling at him as he tries to stick out long punches and kicks. Ferguson digs in with a low kick, and gets countered with a right hand that makes him stumble. A small mouse has formed on the center of Ferguson’s forehead, and he takes another right hand right to the same spot. They jab each other, and both crack each other with vicious left hooks. Gaethje comes at him with another, and a glancing eye poke leads to an apology from Gaethje. The round end with both men kicking at each other.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 2
They greet each other with punches in the face, as Ferguson sneaks in with another superman punch and Gaethje comes back with a right hand. They load up on big punches, and Gaethje connects with a blistering left hook but Ferguson takes it without issue. A thin trickle of blood appears to be coming from the nose of Gaethje, but he does not care as he commits to a thunderous left hand that nearly lifts Ferguson off the ground. Ferguson does not even show a wobble in his step, but takes a low kick when trying to show he is not hurt. Another kick from Gaethje makes Ferguson visibly react to it, and Ferguson swings and misses with a big hook. Gaethje throws one back that blows his hair back, and then clashes a right hand off the dome of his opponent. These two are trading one for the other, and both are having their moments of success. A one-two from Ferguson does not bother Gaethje, who replies with much heavier punches. The ex-WSOF champ rips to the body and then fires a left on the side of Ferguson’s head. Gaethje is loading up on all his punches, and busts up the nose of Ferguson and damages his eye. Gaethje swings from downtown to nail Ferguson on the head, but the former interim champ does not appear to be too concerned. Ferguson spins with a back elbow, and then turns about to land a leg kick. As Ferguson overcommits to an overhand right, a leg kick from Gaethje nearly buckles his knee. Gaethje digs deep and wings a right hand that would put most fighters on the canvas, but Ferguson wades through it. Two punches from Gaethje crack Ferguson on the chin, but like before, there is no reaction. With the round about to end, both men fire Mortal Kombat-esque uppercuts, and Ferguson lands flush and drops Gaethje. What a way to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 3
The two are not afraid to engage in Round 3, Ferguson is taking heavy shots but walks through them to land his own. The power significantly in the favor of Gaethje, Ferguson’s durability is unbelievable as he takes a picture-perfect right and left that bust him open. The damage is instant, as he is bleeding out of the side of his left eye while there is also a cut and a mouse forming under his right. Ferguson leaps forward with a trick punch, but Gaethje times it with a left hand to back him off. They time uppercuts on one another, and a crisp right hook nearly knocks Ferguson down. Gaethje senses he has him hurt, finally, and Gaethje is swinging to finish the fight. Ferguson comes back with an uppercut, and blows his nose out while walking him down. Gaethje cracks Ferguson about as good as anyone could possibly land, and Ferguson takes it like no one else. “El Cucuy” strings together a few punches while avoiding the counter left hook that comes his way. Ferguson catches him on the end of a left hand, but Gaethje is still loading up on right hands that are connecting with ferocious intent. A few jabs to the body force a momentary deep breath from Gaethje, and Ferguson sweeps low to kick Gaethje’s legs out. Ferguson starts to get loose, faking wild arm movement to get his way in and tag Gaethje. Gaethje cracks him with a head kick and follows it with a ridiculous right hand, and yet again Ferguson eats it. A leg kick from Gaethje and a few kicks from each fighter conclude this ludicrous round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 4
Gaethje begins the round with a heavy leg kick, and Ferguson is hunched low perhaps to throw Gaethje off. Ferguson’s corner Eddie Bravo recommended that Ferguson pursue an Imanari roll to surprise Gaethje, which could be the reason for his low stance. Ferguson misses with a wheel kick, and Gaethje comes back with a powerful right hand. “El Cucuy” loads up on an elbow but he get caught on the way in, and when he tries to gain distance, he gets clipped with a right. Lefts and rights are coming en masse for Gaethje, but the former WSOF champion lands an incredibly successful leg kick that makes Ferguson grimace as he spins around. Ferguson sneaks him with a left hand, and Gaethje returns fire with a devastating right hand that wobbles his legs. That shot finally damaged the chin of Ferguson, and the leg kicks have been helping as well. Ferguson avoids some damage while spinning against the fence, and they get back to the center of the cage while Gaethje rips a few more leg kicks. Ferguson gets his sea legs about him, and as they come together, a low kick from Ferguson lands low. Gaethje shakes it off, and Dean pauses it for just a moment before Gaethje waves him off to keep fighting. Gaethje does not want to let Ferguson off the hook, but Ferguson is the one engaging now in the form of a multitude of jabs off the bow. As Ferguson goes for another jab, Gaethje blasts the lead leg and makes Ferguson’s knee buckle. Ferguson somehow manages to walk through it, so Gaethje gives one more for good measure. Both men trade head kicks, and the fourth round is now in the books.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 5
Gaethje shows no fear as he begins the round with a right hand and a leg kick that gives Ferguson pause. Ferguson manages to check the kick, and his shins are bleeding as a result. A right hand from Gaethje stings him, and Ferguson wears it well to get back his composure. Gaethje racks him with two more punches, and a leg kick forces Ferguson to limp. Ferguson kicks Gaethje’s leg, and Gaethje is not thrilled with having to each that along with another that follows. Two punches from Ferguson are countered by Gaethje, who clubs him in the face with punches that make Ferguson do the chicken dance. Hurt again, Ferguson bounces back against the fence, but still manages to come back around. In a desperate effort, Ferguson rolls for that Imanari roll, but Gaethje is a long way away. Ferguson gets back up, and Gaethje makes him pay for it with a few loud leg kicks and thudding right hands. He connects with another few right hands, and Ferguson wears them shocking well given how much damage he has accumulated over the course of the fight. The head strike totals from Gaethje are likely astronomical,
and a stiff left jab sends Ferguson into a walking stupor. Ferguson is falling across the cage, and Gaethje chases him down while Ferguson’s eyes are badly damaged and blinded with blood. A few more punches from Gaethje force Dean to intervene and stop the fight, and this is a righteous stoppage even though Ferguson doesn’t agree with it. What a battle, what total mayhem that was.
Gaethje is now the first fighter to ever knock out the otherworldly durable Ferguson. Justin Gaethje is now the new interim UFC lightweight champion, and scored himself a chance to take on Khabib Nurmagomedov. In his post-fight interview, Gaethje hurls the interim belt off of his waist, and tells Joe Rogan, “I want the real one.”

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Tony Ferguson R5 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson, expecting him to break Gaethje over time by wearing him down. He notes Gaethje's tendency to tire and get hit, and Ferguson's never been finished by strikes. He predicts a knockout in the third or fourth round. However, he criticizes the line at minus 185 as too wide, suggesting it should be closer to a pick'em, and sees value on Gaethje.

Ferguson by knockout in round 3 or 4; line minus 185 is too wide; value on Gaethje
"I like Ferguson to win, but I just do not like that line of like minus 185. I think that's crazy."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Daniel Levi picks Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's insane pace, unorthodox footwork, and front kicks to the gut. He believes Ferguson will drown Gaethje in the later rounds, though he acknowledges Gaethje's power and cardio. Levi notes that Ferguson's chin tends to lift when teeing off, which could be dangerous against Gaethje, but he trusts Ferguson's ability to avoid a concussive blow and take over.

"I think if he does get past this early going doesn't eat that concussive blow that puts him out I think he's gonna start to pick apart just engage I think those front kicks to the gut the jabs there's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Ferguson

Matt picks Ferguson but is not confident at -185, calling the line too wide. He believes Ferguson's unorthodox style, cardio, and jiu-jitsu can overwhelm Gaethje in later rounds. He sees value on Gaethje at +160 and suggests the under 2.5 rounds as a possible bet, but he plans to just enjoy the fight without betting.

Ferguson by fourth-round submission, under 2.5 rounds (-130), Gaethje at +160 is value
"I'm still gonna pick 20 Ferguson to win I think that he wears out just engage he I get so later around finish"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Angelo picks Michael Chandler, stating that everything Tony Ferguson does well, Chandler does better. He believes Chandler's chin has held up after the Gaethje war and expects a war similar to Chandler's last fight. He notes that Ferguson may not be the same after the Gaethje loss.

"every single thing that tony does well michael chandler does it better"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Big Brady picks Michael Chandler to win by decision. He notes that the blueprint to beat Ferguson is to take him down and control him, as Oliveira and Dariush did. However, Chandler is more of a striker and may not follow that blueprint. Brady thinks Chandler's power and wrestling could still get the job done, and he expects Chandler to mix in takedowns and win minutes on top. He is not laying -400 on Chandler but believes he will cruise to a decision. He acknowledges Ferguson's toughness and danger on the feet but thinks Chandler is closer to his prime.

decision
"I'll take chandler to you know strike with ferguson mix in the takedowns and if he does mix in those takedowns I think he will be winning minutes on the mat on top staying safe"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody picks Michael Chandler but also dislikes the -380 price. He provides a detailed breakdown of Ferguson's decline, noting that Ferguson hasn't looked good in years, even in wins. Cody points out that Ferguson's game hasn't evolved, he trains alone, and his unorthodox style is no longer effective. He believes Chandler's wrestling and power will be too much, and that Chandler can take Ferguson's best shots. Cody expects Chandler to dominate early and possibly knock Ferguson out, but acknowledges Ferguson could win 3 out of 10 times.

"i expect chandler to absolutely dominate early um probably land big and uh if ferguson survives things could get interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler confidently, though he does not bet the fight due to the high price. He notes Chandler's first-round explosiveness and wrestling fallback, while Ferguson has declined significantly, losing 11 straight rounds. He thinks Chandler's speed and power are too much for this version of Ferguson, but he is not interested in laying -425. He passes on betting entirely.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds prop but does not play it.
"I obviously favor Chandler to win because even if he doesn't find that round one finish, I do think he can go back to that wrestling base."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chandler

The host picks Michael Chandler to win by first-round knockout. He questions Chandler's wrestling approach, expecting him to stand and trade. He notes Ferguson's unorthodox style and durability, but believes Chandler's power will find the chin early. He is not betting Chandler at -400, but likes 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -180 and Ferguson submission at +750 as small shots. He acknowledges Ferguson's crafty jiu-jitsu and Chandler's history of being knocked out.

fight doesn't go to decision -180; Ferguson by submission +750; Ferguson round 3 KO +3300
"i'm going uh chandler first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Paul picks Michael Chandler to win but is not confident at -380. He thinks Ferguson is washed and that Chandler will dominate early, possibly getting a finish. However, Paul is more interested in the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +150, citing Ferguson's durability. He notes that Ferguson has only been knocked out once (by Gaethje) and is tough to finish, so the decision prop offers value.

fight goes to decision at +150
"i think chandler wins probably not round one maybe around maybe he gets a finish but i'm actually been kind of more interested i see uh some alternate lines out there for like fight goes to decision plus 150"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler by first-round KO, believing Tony Ferguson is done. He argues Ferguson's ground game is overrated and that Chandler can take him down or KO him. He notes Chandler's speed and leg kicks, and that Ferguson's chin is up in the air. He thinks Chandler will slip inside Ferguson's jab and land a big right hand. He also mentions Chandler has more to fight for, including a potential McGregor fight.

"i'm gonna go michael chandler first round ko"