UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 38
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Holly Holm
3.13 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.87 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Irene Aldana
5.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
6.64 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.15 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Holly Holm - Fight History
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:47 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kayla Harrison 0 2 of 12 16% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 51 of 71 71% 68 of 91 2 of 5 40% 1 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 46 of 62 74% 56 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:49
2 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 5 of 9 55% 12 of 18 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kayla Harrison 2 of 12 16% 1 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 51 of 71 71% 46 of 66 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 15 3 of 3 42 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 46 of 62 74% 43 of 59 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 41 of 51
2 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 0 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.

Will watch weigh-ins before betting
"I think Kayla absolutely blows through Holly home here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.

"I will back her and think that she does get that done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to pick Kayla Harrison too, obviously, but it does have to be said that like Kayla Harrison does not have a record littered with the most impressive fighters, let's say."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.

"I am definitely going with Kayla as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.

"I'm excited to see Kayla in the UFC I know a lot of people are on her I'm excited to see her on the UFC me personally man so that's another good fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.

submission, wait for weigh-ins
"I do lean Harrison as I think that her grappling will end up being too much for Holly Holm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.

"I think it's a clear dogger pass probably a pass for me but uh do you have an official pick... I find myself pulling the coward card on this one and going with Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.

"Kayla Harrison is going to get down Holly Holm and dominate her in this fight to a decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Zane mentions the line movement.
"My lane is that Kayla Harrison's clinched judo game is too good for Holly home to be just strong in the clench and make that what works for her."
No Contest (overturned) R2 0:38 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 27 of 39 69% 50 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:05
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 26 of 38 68% 49 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:42
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 19 of 33 57% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 27 of 39 69% 15 of 24 10 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 31 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 37 54% 9 of 21 7 of 10 4 of 6 13 of 28 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 26 of 38 68% 15 of 24 9 of 11 2 of 3 20 of 30 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 19 of 33 57% 8 of 17 7 of 10 4 of 6 12 of 24 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-170), Bueno Silva (+145)

Round 1
Likely the lone fight on the card with immediate championship implications, former champ Holm (15-6, 8-6 UFC) will look to send a message to the matchmakers that she is still at the top of her game at 41 years of age. Silva (10-2-1, 5-2-1 UFC), 10 years younger, is gunning for an upset, with upwards of five rounds to do just that. Needing no further introduction, referee Keith Peterson prepares for the bantamweight main attraction, one that opens up with a quick tap of gloves and not a lick of nonsense. Silva advances slowly, and Holm races at her and throws punches to back her away. Silva kicks the lead calf twice, and Holm gives her a scare with a head kick. Holm is moving quickly on the outside, and she sticks Silva twice with right hands before changing levels for a single. Silva stands up and elbows her foe in the face, leading Holm to let it go and squeeze against her in the clinch. They trade short knees on the inside to little effect, and Holm settles down to impose her weight and will. Holm pushes off and gets away without a strike on the break, and she lifts her leg up to check a body kick. Holm moves quickly to get Silva’s attention with a few punches, and she is out of the way before a counter finds its mark. Holm uses her momentum to clinch Silva up again. When they stall out, Holm times an elbow to break away, and she separates to back off only to lunge forward with a few punches. Silva wings an elbow that slams into Holm’s temple, and Holm has to shake it off and retreat. Silva chases with a few punches, and Holm kicks her way out of a clinch and starts working the body with her feet. Silva comes up short on a front kick, and Holm bounces around before Silva comes towards her. Holm dodges a spinning strike, and she takes a left on the chin and a subsequent right hand to stun Holm. The former champ shoots in for a double after getting her bell rung, and the Brazilian keeps her back to the cage wall and even lifts up a knee to hit Holm during the takedown. Silva motions to Peterson to get between them, but the round ends with Holm hanging on tight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm paces back and forth in her corner before they start fighting again, and Silva takes the center of the cage and gets kicked in the midsection on the way in. Cutting Holm off, Silva pops Holm with a right hook. The former kickboxer moves forward to clinch, and Silva slides her arm under the chin with her back leaned against the wall.
As Holm leans over for a potential takedown, Silva connects her arm to set up a ninja choke that is a modified, dangerous guillotine choke. Holm wriggles but is shocked at this situation, as she is trapped and cannot come up with a way to get out of the bad spot. “Sheetara” leans forward to press her chest down and put more pressure on the neck and submission grip, and she knows she has set the hook. Before she goes out, Holm frantically taps out on the side of her opponent.
Peterson rushes to the other side to see if there had been a tap, and Silva releases the grip before Peterson is able to get between them and separate them. This is a massive feather in the cap for the Brazilian, who is only the second fighter to ever submit Holm – and the first, Miesha Tate, did so to win the bantamweight title. The victorious Silva is the only betting underdog to have pulled off a win tonight, and she made a real statement and stamped herself as an instant contender for the champ-less division. In her post-fight interview, Silva speaks about her mental health issues, thanking those that helped her through the worst days that are behind her. Calling for a title shot, it could be entirely possible that “Sheetara” punched her ticket for that opportunity, as the line of contenders is hardly a determined one. If she gets the next crack at the 135-pound title, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mayra Bueno Silva def. Holly Holm R2 0:38 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is confident in Holly Holm, calling her the more technical striker with better takedown defense and offense. He notes Silva's losses have come via wrestling, and Holly can do the same. He thinks Holly can hold Silva against the cage, get takedowns, and avoid submissions. He placed a one-unit moneyline bet at minus 160. He disagrees with a DM suggesting Silva should be the favorite, stating Holly has earned the right to be favored.

one unit moneyline bet at -160
"Holly Holm confident pick and I have that one unit moneyline bet on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with hesitation, as he sees two clear outcomes: Holm dominating on the feet or Bueno Silva catching an armbar. He notes Holm is 41 but still looks good, and if she fights smart and keeps it standing, she should cruise. However, he worries Holm might take Bueno Silva down and get submitted. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Not betting this fight
"I'm gonna take Holly home here but I could 100 see a scenario where Holly Holm takes down Bueno Silva and gets like armbarred and I'm extremely annoyed because I bet holy home but luckily I'm I'm not betting this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm, comparing her to a Rolex watch that keeps going. He highlights her high ring IQ, ability to adapt, and wrestling improvements. He notes Silva's takedown defense issues and that Holm can mix in takedowns. He expects Holm to Matador from the outside, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, possibly winning championship rounds.

"I gotta go with Holly Holm as well minus 180 women's MMA again... she's like a Rolex watch man she just keeps going"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

James is leaning towards Mayra Bueno Silva as an underdog. He notes that Holly Holm is 41 years old and may be declining, while Bueno Silva has strong submission skills and finishing ability. He mentions that many respected bettors are on Holm, but he is skeptical of her grappling and thinks Bueno Silva could submit her. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards the dog side.

submission finish
"I do think that Buena Silva has some submission upside that Holly Holm maybe hasn't seen before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host believes Holm's veteran savvy and clinch-heavy approach will keep her safe from Bueno Silva's submissions. He expects Holm to mix striking, clinch, and grappling to cruise to a decision win. He notes Bueno Silva's lack of urgency and low volume as weaknesses.

"I think she wins by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul picks Holly Holm, citing her technical striking, experience, and ability to win at range. He expects a slow, tepid fight with Holm winning a decision, similar to the Vieira fight. He notes the line moved from -145 to -180, so he missed his betting window. He also mentions the PrizePicks over 90.5 significant strikes is tight and won't play it.

mentioned over 90.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks but won't play it
"I think experience wins out here she can win with volume on the feet... I expect a slow tepid Affair 25 minutes and home gets her hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva, noting Holm's activity, athleticism, and ability to control fights against the cage. He questions Silva's cardio for a five-round fight and doubts her submission threat, believing Holm can dictate where the fight takes place. He predicts Holm wins by decision or late stoppage.

"I'm gonna go with Holly Holm confident in her I think mayor Bueno Silva's dangerous but I don't think she's dangerous enough on the feet"
WIN vs Yana Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 32 of 63 50% 105 of 163 4 of 6 66% 0 0 9:49
Yana Santos 0 21 of 46 45% 120 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 7 of 16 43% 24 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:41
Yana Santos 0 12 of 25 48% 50 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
2 Holly Holm 0 16 of 33 48% 43 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Yana Santos 0 7 of 12 58% 38 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 9 of 14 64% 38 of 60 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:59
Yana Santos 0 2 of 9 22% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 32 of 63 50% 23 of 49 8 of 12 1 of 2 14 of 33 4 of 5 14 of 25
Yana Santos 21 of 46 45% 3 of 22 8 of 9 10 of 15 15 of 37 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yana Santos 12 of 25 48% 2 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 8 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 16 of 33 48% 12 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 1 12 of 21
Yana Santos 7 of 12 58% 1 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 5 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 9 of 14 64% 6 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 4
Yana Santos 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.

"Holly Holm is my most confident pick on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.

Holm by decision
"holms gonna go out there and hold Santa's against the cage for three rounds decision to win there you go but I would not be betting on this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.

Holly Holm by decision; over 2.5 rounds
"I would personally bet Holly Holm by decision because I don't want to bet Hollywood minus 250 straight up"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.

Mentions odds: Holm opened -200, currently -238; Santos opened +150, currently +193. Notes line is getting wider.
"I got to just pick Holly home to hold her on the fence for three rounds and for Yana Konitsuka to not be able to make anything that makes it look like she's won the fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.

Found plus money on Holly Holm (specific prop not stated)
"I found plus money for Holly Holm that I absolutely love."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.

"I think we're in store for another veteran performance here from Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.

"probably just Holly Holm holding her against a cage... I'm gonna go Holly home pushing her against a cage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.

Mentions odds: Holm -238, Santos +193. Notes the line is getting wider.
"You got to pick home Santos. She really would have to prove that she can win a fight like this."
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 96 of 157 61% 188 of 263 0 of 6 0% 0 0 10:03
Holly Holm 0 85 of 151 56% 122 of 190 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 6 of 9 66% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:36
Holly Holm 0 19 of 22 86% 40 of 45 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 21 66% 33 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:46
Holly Holm 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 18 of 30 60% 42 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:50
Holly Holm 0 23 of 37 62% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 21 of 29 72% 43 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:42
Holly Holm 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 96 of 157 61% 26 of 79 34 of 40 36 of 38 76 of 133 20 of 24 0 of 0
Holly Holm 85 of 151 56% 49 of 109 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 110 32 of 37 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 4 3 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0
Holly Holm 19 of 22 86% 3 of 5 14 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 6 14 of 14 2 of 2
2 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 21 66% 6 of 13 2 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 22 45% 7 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2
3 Ketlen Vieira 18 of 30 60% 4 of 13 9 of 11 5 of 6 13 of 25 5 of 5 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 37 62% 11 of 25 11 of 11 1 of 1 13 of 26 10 of 11 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 37 of 68 54% 5 of 33 16 of 18 16 of 17 36 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 19 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 21 of 29 72% 9 of 16 7 of 8 5 of 5 16 of 22 5 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)

Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira

Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm

Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.

Holly Holm by decision
"holly holm by decision is probably the best bet in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.

"i like holly holm to win i like calling him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000), Holm by decision
"i'm willing to pay if i need to but i'd like to improve it and whereas normally i would just hammer up this holly holm by decision i almost do get that bad impression as you mentioned that home could …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.

over 4.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"home vieta over four and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000)
"i like holly holm to win -240 scares me a little bit off she obviously she's 40 years old um but like i mean she's still in damn good shape for her age the volume is always there obviously she's …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.

"i'm going to go with holly holm i'm going to go decision win"
WIN vs Irene Aldana
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 154 of 301 51% 187 of 342 5 of 14 35% 0 0 5:16
Irene Aldana 0 69 of 185 37% 92 of 210 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 21 of 50 42% 31 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 23 of 47 48% 27 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 32 37% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 37 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:06
Irene Aldana 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Holly Holm 0 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Holly Holm 0 48 of 95 50% 53 of 102 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 154 of 301 51% 81 of 214 56 of 68 17 of 19 140 of 272 1 of 1 13 of 28
Irene Aldana 69 of 185 37% 38 of 128 12 of 30 19 of 27 65 of 181 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 21 of 50 42% 8 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 12 of 31 38% 3 of 14 1 of 4 8 of 13 12 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 23 of 47 48% 10 of 31 8 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 45 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 12 of 32 37% 5 of 21 2 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 12 of 38 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 0 of 0 9 of 24
Irene Aldana 9 of 25 36% 4 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Holly Holm 39 of 58 67% 14 of 28 19 of 24 6 of 6 37 of 56 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 18 of 42 42% 13 of 34 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Holly Holm 48 of 95 50% 37 of 84 11 of 11 0 of 0 47 of 94 1 of 1 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 18 of 55 32% 13 of 40 3 of 12 2 of 3 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.

"give me uh irene aldana to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.

Aldana by decision; mentions Aldana is the underdog at +100; notes hesitancy betting due to possibility of Holm winning a close decision
"i'm going to say irena aldana wins this decision by just slightly having more output than holly holm"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.

"i am going to take hollyoam to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.

Prediction: TKO round 2
"i'm going to go with irene o'donnell here i think she gets it done against holly holm"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 47 of 71 66% 143 of 176 4 of 8 50% 1 0 10:44
Megan Anderson 0 26 of 58 44% 48 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 12 of 17 70% 35 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Megan Anderson 0 15 of 31 48% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 18 of 31 58% 57 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:39
Megan Anderson 0 7 of 19 36% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 17 of 23 73% 51 of 60 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:32
Megan Anderson 0 4 of 8 50% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 47 of 71 66% 27 of 47 12 of 14 8 of 10 19 of 35 8 of 10 20 of 26
Megan Anderson 26 of 58 44% 15 of 42 11 of 16 0 of 0 19 of 48 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 12 of 17 70% 4 of 7 5 of 5 3 of 5 5 of 8 6 of 8 1 of 1
Megan Anderson 15 of 31 48% 9 of 24 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 21 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 18 of 31 58% 15 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 1 10 of 14
Megan Anderson 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 17 of 23 73% 8 of 13 5 of 6 4 of 4 7 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Megan Anderson 4 of 8 50% 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana - Fight History
LOSS vs Norma Dumont
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Norma Dumont 0 69 of 183 37% 69 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Irene Aldana 0 159 of 309 51% 159 of 309 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Norma Dumont 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Irene Aldana 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Norma Dumont 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Irene Aldana 0 58 of 114 50% 58 of 114 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Norma Dumont 0 32 of 78 41% 32 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Irene Aldana 0 69 of 120 57% 69 of 120 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Norma Dumont 69 of 183 37% 47 of 145 12 of 23 10 of 15 67 of 180 2 of 3 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 159 of 309 51% 89 of 229 34 of 42 36 of 38 156 of 305 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Norma Dumont 12 of 46 26% 7 of 30 1 of 9 4 of 7 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 32 of 75 42% 14 of 54 4 of 5 14 of 16 31 of 74 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Norma Dumont 25 of 59 42% 16 of 46 4 of 6 5 of 7 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 58 of 114 50% 28 of 80 16 of 20 14 of 14 58 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Norma Dumont 32 of 78 41% 24 of 69 7 of 8 1 of 1 30 of 75 2 of 3 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 69 of 120 57% 47 of 95 14 of 17 8 of 8 67 of 117 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldana (-112), Dumont (-108)

Round 1
Wrapping the abbreviated prelims is a potential no. 1 contender bout at 135 pounds. Former title challenger Aldana (15-7, 8-5 UFC) washed the bad taste out of a one-sided loss to Amanda Nunes out of her mouth with buckets of blood courtesy of her titanic tussle with Karol Rosa in December. With the division starved for contenders, the Lobo Gym fighter might get another crack at gold if she gets past Dumont (11-2, 7-2 UFC). Fresh out of the 145-pound division, Dumont has shown she can successfully make weight, making her a viable contender as well. A clap of hands seals the cage that also contains referee Herb Dean. Aldana reaches out with a low kick but is out of range, and Dumont takes a few steps forward and lands her own. Dumont connects with another kick, and she just misses with a jab. Aldana jabs her back, and she checks a leg kick as marching forward. Dumont scores a solid low kick, and her one-two bounces harmlessly off the raised guard. Aldana catches her opponent with a left hook, and Dumont shakes her head at it. Dumont sneaks out a jab, with Aldana keeping her own jab active. Aldana jabs to the head and chest, and she walks through low kicks to get in range as Dumont is constantly fighting off her back foot. Dumont tries to force out three punches, but Aldana parries all three and chips away with the front leg. Aldana flashes out a jab and is countered with a right over the top, and she takes a hard kick to the side of her knee. Dumont overswings on power strikes, and Aldana remains in her face, composed and largely utilizing straight strikes while she maintains a grin. Aldana lands again and makes Dumont smile, and then clips her with a right hook that makes the smile disappear. Dumont gets in a clean low kick, and she lands at the end of a right hand and a left to drive Aldana back briefly. The Mexican continues stalking Dumont around, and she connects with a left hand and then pushes Aldana away with a front kick. Aldana reaches her opponent with a left hook and a right, and Dumont grins and swings back harder. Aldana leans back to dodge a high kick and jabs to the body, and she plods forward to deliver a left hook on the jaw. Dumont crashes forward to connect with a right hand, and she waves her hand at her to signal she landed cleanly. Aldana hits air with a left hook, and Dumont stays on her bike potshotting her freely. Aldana misses the mark a few times before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the second round, and Aldana leads off well with a sharp left hook. Dumont smacks her with a front-leg low kick, and she is met with a right hand and quick left. Dumont tries to box her back, but Aldana beats her to the punch and kicks her in the posterior. Dumont peppers the front leg with kicks and uses a long jab to keep Aldana away, and Aldana dips to go after a right to the body and misses with a big left up top. Aldana whiffs on another left hook, and she lets Dumont walk into an overhand right. Aldana sticks out a jab and a low kick, and her guard protects her from two punches but not the two kicks that follow. They land punches at the same time, and Dumont jabs her back to the ribs and kicks the same spot. Aldana eats a left hand and swings back up top, and she gets in a left hook and tries to reach her with a right that comes up short. Both ladies are grinning as they trade punches, having a blast in the cage as they smack one another in the chops. Aldana stings Dumont with a right and a left, and Dumont races at her swinging for the bleachers. Aldana largely blocks the worst of the blows, but a few manage to sneak in. Aldana walks face-first into a left hand, and she continues chasing Dumont around and boops her with a jab. Aldana scores as left and is met with a counter right, and Dumont kicks her front leg for good measure. Dumont skirts away from a left hook to go after the body, and she ducks a looping punch to level change. Aldana pushes her away before a takedown can materialize, and she dings her foe with a long right hand. Dumont counters with an overhand right, and she sits down on a left hook that gets Aldana’s attention. Aldana does not falter as she chases the Brazilian down, but Dumont is outlanding her and hitting her harder. Dumont draws blood on the forehead, and Aldana rocks her with a short combination. Dumont is in her face, slugging it out and cutting Aldana again on the bridge of the nose. Aldana wipes her face, irritated by the bleeding, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 3
The replay shows that the cut on Aldana’s forehead is much larger than it first appeared, and it was caused due to a clash of heads and not a strike. Her corner is nowhere close to closing it, and she wipes the blood all across her face as Dumont is willing to smear it with her own strikes. Dumont chases after Aldana early, like she has in the last 10 minutes, but she appears to have finally found her range to a larger degree. Dumont uses an effective jab, but Aldana plodding towards her releasing big hooks find their mark a few times. Dumont chips at the front leg enough to make Aldana take a second thought at approaching, and Aldana is covered in blood. The Mexican does not mind, stalking Dumont fearlessly and obliging in each and every striking exchange. Aldana keeps powering forward, and Dumont tries to take her down. Aldana smashes her in the face with an elbow, causing some unexpected damage, and Dumont is backpedaling and not enjoying herself anymore. Aldana hurries after her, wiping blood all the while, and she keeps working Dumont over with her strikes. Dumont tries all her might to keep Aldana away from her, using her jabs and front kicks to destabilize the oncoming Mexican. Aldana uses her shirt to wipe the blood away, and as she does, Dumont catches her with a left that makes her eye swell. Dumont may be a bit bloodied as well around the nose, but she relishes in the exchanges. Aldana coming at her opponent so fiercely, she is practically sprinting. Aldana wipes her face, strikes, lather, rinse, repeat. Dumont is constantly backing away, and with 10 seconds to spare, she shoots for a takedown that fails. With one final Superwoman punch from Aldana, the bloody match concludes. The enormous cut on the former title challenger’s face is shown in its full form when cleaned up, stretching practically from the top of her forehead to the bottom of her eyelid in a gash that would make Marvin Eastman blush. Just bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Dumont)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Dumont)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (30-27 Dumont)

The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Irene Aldana via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

Angelo picks Norma Dumont as an underdog but with caution. He likes her size, ability to slow the pace, and grappling, but notes she took too long to start wrestling in her last fight and was getting touched up on the feet. He prefers betting the over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline, as Dumont might not get takedowns and Aldana could piece her up. He is picking Dumont but being wiser with his money.

Prefers betting over 2.5 rounds instead of moneyline; notes moneyline would be plus money.
"I am still picking Norma as an underdog here but I'm likely going to bet the over two and a half instead of the money line"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady finds this fight close and difficult to call. He picks Aldana because she is the better striker and can keep the fight at range, despite Dumont possibly getting takedowns. He notes Aldana's takedown defense is decent and she pops back up quickly. He expects a close decision win for Aldana.

"I'm going to Pi pick Alon here... give me alonna by decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

Daniel picks Norma Dumont via coin flip, admitting he has no strong read on the fight due to Irene Aldana's inconsistency. He notes Aldana can be gun-shy against respected opponents, while Dumont has good fight IQ and game plans. He sees Dumont grinding out a win.

"Tails baby hey we're gonna go with Norma Dumont here to grind this one out my friends"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Norma Dumont

A pick'em fight between striker and grappler. Leaning on Dumont's grappling. Aldana may have some success early off her back, but Dumont will be too strong in top positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'm going to have to lean on the grappling of Dumont as I think Delana may have some success early here being active off of her back but I think Dumont will be a little bit too strong for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The MMA Guru picks Irene Aldana. He notes Aldana has better finishing potential and power at bantamweight, and Dumont is a flyweight moving up which may affect her ability to cut weight. He sees Aldana's lead hook as a weapon and can see her knocking out Dumont, who has been finished before. He recommends a small bet on Aldana by KO.

Aldana by KO recommended as a small bet
"I actually could see her getting shined she got put away by uh Megan Anderson I could see her getting chinned here by aldana so if you want to maybe sprinkle some money on an aldana KO that would be …"
WIN vs Karol Rosa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 0 145 of 308 47% 145 of 308 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karol Rosa 0 204 of 350 58% 204 of 350 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 0 30 of 88 34% 30 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karol Rosa 0 45 of 89 50% 45 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Irene Aldana 0 54 of 109 49% 54 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karol Rosa 0 67 of 108 62% 67 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Irene Aldana 0 61 of 111 54% 61 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karol Rosa 0 92 of 153 60% 92 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 145 of 308 47% 122 of 276 20 of 28 3 of 4 145 of 308 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karol Rosa 204 of 350 58% 103 of 237 6 of 11 95 of 102 204 of 349 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 30 of 88 34% 23 of 75 5 of 10 2 of 3 30 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karol Rosa 45 of 89 50% 11 of 52 2 of 2 32 of 35 45 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Irene Aldana 54 of 109 49% 48 of 103 5 of 5 1 of 1 54 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karol Rosa 67 of 108 62% 37 of 73 1 of 4 29 of 31 67 of 107 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Irene Aldana 61 of 111 54% 51 of 98 10 of 13 0 of 0 61 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karol Rosa 92 of 153 60% 55 of 112 3 of 5 34 of 36 92 of 153 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldana (-205), Rosa (+170)

Round 1
The winner of this next preliminary affair could posture themselves in line for the next title shot, given the dearth of contenders at 135 pounds. Aldana (14-7, 7-5 UFC) is coming off a deflating defeat to the great Amanda Nunes, while Rosa (17-5, 6-2 UFC) has shifted around from bantamweight to featherweight until the latter disintegrated. Whether this lasts three minutes or three full rounds, referee Jason Herzog has clocked in and is ready for what comes next. There is a sporting glove touch between the women, and Aldana strikes first with a quick jab. Rosa strings two punches and a leg kick together to give something back, and Aldana is right there to pop her with a one-two when that completes. Rosa meanders forward as chants for “Mexico” rain down, and Aldana meets her with a few peppering jabs. Rosa lunges with two more punches and a low kick, and she skirts away from a right hand that zips towards her. Aldana absorbs a few more lead leg kicks, and she gets driven back by the Brazilian with a straight right hand. Aldana sticks out a sharp jab and reddens the nose of her foe with a couple subsequent punches, and Rosa retaliates with a fierce leg kick that spins Aldana around and sits her on her seat momentarily. Aldana gathers her thoughts and tanks two more kicks, and she marches forward putting hands on Rosa. Aldana connects with a solid one-two, but Rosa continues to chop her down like a tree. Less than three minutes in, and Aldana’s left leg is welted on both sides and showing some damage. Rosa does not take her foot off the gas as she continues to work on the boxer’s leg, and Aldana forces responses with long, leaning punches. Rosa’s defense stays effective enough to show little harm from the punches, and she slams her shin on the inside of Aldana’s thigh. Aldana is wearing it, but she bites down on her mouthpiece and connects with numerous punches up top. Rosa chambers and fires more legs kicks, never allowing Aldana to feel comfortable, and Aldana is not bothering to check or do anything about them. Instead, Aldana plods forward, jabbing and dinging Rosa with punches. Rosa, the bridge of her nose cut, pounds on Aldana’s lead leg with kicks on the inside and out. Aldana toughs it out, but every time one lands, her knee nearly buckles. Aldana maintains a stiff upper lip, backing Rosa off with her long, accurate punches. Aldana gets off a right hand, and Rosa rocks her with a head kick shortly thereafter. The horn sounds, with both ladies licking their wounds after five harsh minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
The two practically sprint off of their stools to get ready for the second round, and they quickly touch gloves first. Rosa gets right back to bombarding Aldana with ferocious kicks, and Aldana is in her face piecing her up with punches. Rosa gives back punches, in lesser volume, but her kicks make more than up for it. Aldana hops around back and forth to try to get some feeling back in her lead wheel, as Rosa is chopping hard at the inner thigh that is welted and swollen. Rosa uses her leg kicks to open up punches up top, and Aldana continues to fight through the pain and blasts Rosa in the face with a one-two. Aldana punches her way into a long combination, and she tags Rosa with a straight right hand. Rosa chomps down on her gumshield and slings leather right back, but Aldana continues to peck and poke away at her with effective punches. With Rosa’s back against the wall, she has nowhere to go, and Aldana lays into her with long series of punches. Rosa cannot get off kicks when in close range, until Aldana backs off. Rosa falls over when throwing a kick, and Aldana lets her back up so that she can chain punches en masse. Aldana pours it on as Rosa begins to slow, and the right hands from the Mexican draw serious swelling on Rosa’s left eye. Rosa fearlessly trades leather, but Aldana is the far superior pure boxer and does some damage. The Brazilian gets enough space to lob out low kicks, until Aldana crowds her with her fists. Rosa tries to back her off courtesy of a jump knee, and Aldana parries it and comes out firing. Aldana starts kiaiing when landing punches, and Rosa’s face is busted up from taking punishment. Aldana ignores the leg kicks, even when aimed at her calf, and she stings Rosa with a vicious uppercut. Rosa throws caution to the wind and starts brawling, and Aldana takes it to her with several more crisp punches until the horn ends the wild round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana

Round 3
The ladies are glad to touch ’em up to begin the last round, and Aldana is fired up. The first punch Aldana throws rocks Rosa, and Rosa takes a quick count of her teeth and absorbs a few more fiery punches. Rosa connects with a few low kicks on the inside and out, and Aldana jabs her way into a blistering exchange. Rosa gets her swollen eye smashed as she kicks Aldana’s leg out, and Aldana’s one-two continues to find its home. Rosa picks up the number of low kicks again, intercepting an advancing Aldana. Aldana rips an uppercut in the midst of a salvo, and Rosa chops her lead leg down like Van Damme kicking the banana tree in “Kickboxer.” Rosa continues her assault of leg kicks, and Aldana finds her mark with head shots and one big one to the body. Aldana busts open the mouse under Rosa’s eye and spams uppercuts, and Rosa is backing off but still trading. This is insane. Aldana may not realize how hurt Rosa is, and she does not target the body as much and continues teeing off up top. Rosa throws back with everything she has, and Aldana drills the liver with a left hand. Aldana starts aiming punches to the body, and she mixes shots up top and down to the midsection. Rosa is tough as a two-dollar steak, bleeding from both eyes and compromised by body shots, but she is still in the fight. Aldana connects again and again with long chains of punches, transforming Rosa’s face into an unrecognizable visage, and Rosa counters with bombs. With 30 seconds left, Rosa decides it is time to start brawling, chin be darned. Aldana walks through leg kicks and busts Rosa in the chops with everything she has. Aldana smashes Rosa’s nose, and blood is leaking out of Rosa’s face from basically everywhere. Rosa may take some steps back, but she does not stop trading furious leather until the bitter end. The final bell sounds, putting an end to a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” winner immediately worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. What an absolutely sensational firefight!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)

The Official Result
Irene Aldana def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Angelo picks Irene Aldana but is hesitant, citing concerns about fighters coming off title losses. He acknowledges Rosa's busy striking and takedown ability, but believes Aldana's size and power should prevail. He does not trust her with his money.

No bet; concerned about post-title loss spiral
"Irene aldana is the pick probably medium level confidence... I don't trust her with my money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa as a slight underdog, calling it a close fight. He likes Aldana's striking and power but notes Rosa's youth (7 years younger), high volume (over 5 significant strikes per minute), and improving grappling (brown/black belt in BJJ). Brady believes Rosa can get takedowns, as she has in 5 UFC fights, and potentially win minutes on the mat. He predicts a very close split decision for Rosa.

"I am going to pick the dog here and Carol HOSA to win a very very close split competitive decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, arguing that Aldana's takedown defense is a major liability and that Rosa has the volume and wrestling to win. He notes that Aldana was nearly beaten by Macy Chiasson before landing a lucky upkick, and that Rosa is younger and has shown improvement. Cody believes Rosa can swarm Aldana with volume and mix in takedowns to secure a decision. He is not fully confident but sees Rosa as the dog pick.

"dog number three for me... car Rosa"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel Vreeland picks Irene Aldana as his lock, stating that Karol Rosa is in over her head in the striking department and won't get enough grappling going. He thinks the line on Aldana is nice at around -200.

"I'm gonna take uh aren Alana I think Carol Jose is in over her head here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Lucrative James is confident Karol Rosa is the side at plus money. He believes Irene Aldana's win over Macy Chiasson was a fluke (upkick from bottom) and that she was losing that fight. He thinks Rosa can get takedowns and control from top, and that the fight is close on the feet. He calls betting on Aldana at minus 230 'mental' and says Rosa should not be plus 180.

"Karol Rosa should not be plus 180... this is ridiculous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

The host picks Rosa as an underdog, citing her youth, potential, and well-rounded game. He believes Rosa can out-grapple Aldana, who has shown vulnerabilities in the clinch and on the ground. He notes that Rosa can be competitive on the feet but should look to close the distance and implement her grappling. He expects Rosa to win a decision by putting together a better MMA package.

Rosa by decision
"give me the youngster here the 28-year-old at least relative to the 35-year-old AR adala uh as I think HOSA can go out there and put together a better MMA package here and win this fight on the scorecards so …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Paul picks Rosa as an underdog, citing Aldana's poor takedown defense and Rosa's volume and wrestling. He notes that Aldana has been taken down easily in past fights and that Rosa can win on the feet or by mixing in takedowns. Paul acknowledges both fighters are untrustworthy but sees value in Rosa at +160. He believes Rosa's cardio and volume will be key.

"I'll go with the CF dot model here and uh and side with Carol Rosa"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana over Karol Rosa, despite Aldana's poor performance against Amanda Nunes. He notes Aldana's wins over Macy Chiasson and Yana Santos, and believes she has a finishing advantage and is physically bigger. He expects Aldana to win easily.

"I'm going with Irene aldana... Irene aldana beats her really easily even though she was absolutely [ __ ] scared of Amanda Nunes"
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–43) R5 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 142 of 267 53% 196 of 323 6 of 13 46% 0 0 7:00
Irene Aldana 0 41 of 143 28% 57 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Irene Aldana 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Nunes 0 31 of 61 50% 31 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Irene Aldana 0 11 of 38 28% 11 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Nunes 0 23 of 47 48% 25 of 49 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
Irene Aldana 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Amanda Nunes 0 48 of 77 62% 49 of 78 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:13
Irene Aldana 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
5 Amanda Nunes 0 19 of 26 73% 70 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:36
Irene Aldana 0 1 of 4 25% 17 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 142 of 267 53% 97 of 198 28 of 49 17 of 20 115 of 234 5 of 8 22 of 25
Irene Aldana 41 of 143 28% 25 of 118 3 of 7 13 of 18 36 of 133 3 of 3 2 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 21 of 56 37% 9 of 35 9 of 18 3 of 3 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 8 of 31 25% 5 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 4 8 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Amanda Nunes 31 of 61 50% 16 of 40 7 of 11 8 of 10 30 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 11 of 38 28% 4 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 11 11 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Nunes 23 of 47 48% 20 of 40 3 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 40 1 of 1 4 of 6
Irene Aldana 8 of 22 36% 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 2
4 Amanda Nunes 48 of 77 62% 36 of 61 6 of 9 6 of 7 45 of 71 3 of 6 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 13 of 48 27% 9 of 41 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 2
5 Amanda Nunes 19 of 26 73% 16 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 19
Irene Aldana 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Angelo picks Amanda Nunes but expresses hesitation. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and should win, but questions her motivation due to her age, wealth, and new family. He thinks she may need to rely on wrestling, and hopes she is in shape. He acknowledges Irene Aldana's technical boxing and takedown defense, but believes Nunes' power and wrestling will prevail.

"I think Amanda Nunes gets this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is the far superior fighter and that Aldana's wins are against lower-level competition. Aldana struggled with Macy Chiasson and had her back taken. Even if Nunes is not fully motivated, she should dominate. He advises against betting Nunes due to the high price and potential motivation issues, but still picks her to finish early.

first round submission; advises against betting Nunes due to high price and motivation concerns
"give me Nunez to finish aldana I think it comes in the very first round and I'll say it's by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Cody picks Amanda Nunes, citing her wrestling game plan as the key. He notes that Holly Holm and Macy Chiasson both took Aldana down multiple times, and if Nunes sticks to that approach, it should be easy work. He acknowledges Aldana's boxing and lateral movement but believes Nunes's takedowns will neutralize her. He also mentions that Nunes's motivation and conditioning looked career-best in the Peña rematch.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Nunes on PrizePicks
"if Amanda Nunes comes out here sticks to a game plan that she did in the second fight against Pena I struggle to see how Eldon is able to fight that off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Connor believes Nunes will win due to her athletic advantage and wrestling. He notes that Aldana is easy to take down and has a bad habit of pulling guard, similar to Dern. He expects Nunes to use her wrestling to control the fight, as she did against de Randamie.

Nunes opened at -360, currently -308; Aldana opened at +308, currently +260. Connor mentions the odds are getting tighter and he would not be surprised if they continue to move.
"I'm still going to pick her."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes, citing that all film and stats point to Nunes having Aldana covered in every part of the game. He notes that the line is driven down by the first Pena fight, but Nunes dominated the rematch. He acknowledges Aldana's power and cleaner hands than Pena, but believes Nunes is the better fighter with more ways to win, including superior wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu, striking, and power. He sees the grappling gap as 10 worlds apart and expects Nunes to finish the fight.

"all indications lead to Amanda having her covered pretty much everywhere"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Amanda Nunes

James picks Amanda Nunes to win but is hesitant due to volatility. He notes Nunes is 35, talking about retirement, and had an off night against Pena. He thinks if Nunes is focused, she submits Aldana within three rounds. Aldana is a good boxer but weak elsewhere. James prefers not to bet the moneyline at -350, suggesting props instead. He predicts Nunes finishes in round four or five.

Amanda Nunes to finish Irene Aldana in round 4 or 5 (official prediction)
"I'm gonna pick Amanda Nunes I think she's clearly the better Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Nunes has a clear grappling advantage and should take Aldana down repeatedly. Aldana's best chance is a knockout on the feet, but Nunes will likely close the distance and control the fight on the mat. The over 2.5 rounds is likely as Aldana is tough off her back. Nunes by decision is the most probable outcome, though the moneyline is accurate.

Over 2.5 rounds (even money), Nunes wins by decision
"I'm still gonna go with the champion here ... give me Nunes by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Paul picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging the line already factors in her inconsistency. He notes that Nunes has a minus-500 skill set but the line is discounted due to her personal life and past performances. He highlights that Aldana doesn't have big KO power, so if Nunes closes distance and gets takedowns, she should dominate. He suggests hedging by betting Nunes and then taking Aldana live after a couple rounds if Nunes fades.

Hedge suggestion: bet Nunes pre-fight, then bet Aldana live after round 2 or 3 if Nunes gasses
"I honestly feel like the line makers factored that into making this line minus 320 because Amanda Nunez probably should be a minus 500 she's got a minus 500 skill set"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging Aldana's KO power but citing a skill gap. He notes Aldana was schooled by Holly Holm and struggled against Macy Chiasson, while Nunes is a different level. He predicts Nunes will mix in takedowns and finish Aldana via standing TKO in the second round after some back-and-forth on the feet.

prediction of second round TKO, notes Aldana is a decent underdog
"I'm going with Amanda Nunes over Irene aldana"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Zane agrees with Connor that Nunes will win. He emphasizes that Aldana's wrestling is a huge problem, as she gave up three takedowns to Macy Chiasson. He notes that Nunes is not a great wrestler but Aldana is worse, and her instinct to pull guard will be exploited.

"The wrestling is just the crux. Like if she can't stop the takedowns, and really she should be able to. Like Nunez isn't even that good of a wrestler."
WIN vs Macy Chiasson
KO (upkick to the body) R3 2:21 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 1 37 of 71 52% 51 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:00
Macy Chiasson 0 39 of 94 41% 72 of 140 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 0 25 of 47 53% 29 of 51 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:55
Macy Chiasson 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Irene Aldana 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Macy Chiasson 0 17 of 39 43% 50 of 85 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:51
3 Irene Aldana 1 3 of 12 25% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Macy Chiasson 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 37 of 71 52% 24 of 57 5 of 5 8 of 9 19 of 51 3 of 3 15 of 17
Macy Chiasson 39 of 94 41% 26 of 80 7 of 8 6 of 6 31 of 75 0 of 0 8 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 25 of 47 53% 14 of 35 4 of 4 7 of 8 13 of 33 3 of 3 9 of 11
Macy Chiasson 13 of 33 39% 4 of 24 6 of 6 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Irene Aldana 9 of 12 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5
Macy Chiasson 17 of 39 43% 15 of 36 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 8 of 19
3 Irene Aldana 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Macy Chiasson 9 of 22 40% 7 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Angelo picks Macy Chiasson, noting she can beat Irene Aldana the same way Holly Holm did: manage distance and use takedowns. He thinks Chiasson's length and grappling will be key, and she just took down Norma Dumont six times. He placed a small moneyline bet at +178, which has since moved to +160.

small moneyline bet at +178
"I have a small it's not a full unit I have a small money line bet on Macy Chiasson it breaks all the bet women rules I got it at plus 178."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady picks Irene Aldana to win by decision, highlighting her 84% takedown defense and superior striking. He notes Macy Chiasson's path to victory relies on using her size and clinch, but Aldana's takedown defense is phenomenal and she has fought much better competition. He believes Aldana has more power and better cardio, and a finish wouldn't shock him.

"Give me Aldana to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Cody is confident in Irene Aldana, having already bet her at -161. He believes Aldana dominates on the feet, as Chiasson's wrestling is not highly rated and her cardio fades. He notes that Chiasson's move back to 135 could be problematic. He thinks Aldana's boxing and footwork will be too much.

"i think el donna should be able to absolutely dominate uh on the on the feet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel Levi picks Irene Aldana but with low confidence. He notes Aldana's high output and power, but also her tendency to underperform in favored spots. He acknowledges Chiasson's physical advantages (height, reach) and improved wrestling, as seen against Dumont. Levi says he's been burnt by Aldana before and won't lay the chalk, but still sees her as the pick.

"While i definitely lean aldana it's just how many times am i gonna be burnt by this aldana chalk price so i ain't laying it personally the pick is aldana."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Jacob picks Irene Aldana, praising her composure and power. He notes she handled Yana Kunitskaya's pressure well and landed a fight-ending left hook. He thinks Chiasson does not like getting hit and will panic when Aldana lands. He believes Aldana will find the big shot and capitalize.

"I love Aldona in this matchup I think that she's gonna find that shot versus Macy harder cause you watch that Macy fight versus Norma Dumont was grappling grappling grappling dominating the first dominating the second the second Norma Dumont …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Irene Aldana

The host is very confident in Irene Aldana, expecting her to nullify Chiasson's clinch and grappling with excellent takedown defense. He believes Aldana's crisp striking will lead to a knockout in the second or third round. He calls -180 a gift.

Irene Aldana by knockout (+450)
"I think she whoops on Chiasson here and I think she eventually knocks her out later in this fight probably in the second or third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Paul picks Aldana but with hesitation, noting that women's MMA is unpredictable. He acknowledges Chiasson's wrestling could be a factor if she takes Aldana down, but he believes Aldana's striking improvements and speed advantage will carry her. He is concerned about Aldana's 14-month layoff but thinks she has used the time well.

"i got a donna as well i mean this is women's mma so if you know batman was here he would tell you just take a flyer on the underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Irene Aldana

The MMA Guru picks Irene Aldana to win by 29-28 decision, based on the first two rounds. He expects Aldana to outbox Chiasson, landing more damaging blows. Chiasson will push Aldana against the cage, but Aldana will escape and land good shots. Chiasson may push pace in the third, but it will be too little too late. Aldana wins via unanimous decision.

decision 29-28
"I'm gonna go with Irene aldana I said TKO originally I'm gonna I'm gonna say decision I think she wins 29-28"
TKO (punches) R1 4:35 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 1 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Yana Kunitskaya 0 24 of 49 48% 30 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 1 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Yana Kunitskaya 0 24 of 49 48% 30 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 37 of 66 56% 28 of 53 6 of 10 3 of 3 13 of 29 3 of 4 21 of 33
Yana Kunitskaya 24 of 49 48% 8 of 28 9 of 12 7 of 9 18 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 37 of 66 56% 28 of 53 6 of 10 3 of 3 13 of 29 3 of 4 21 of 33
Yana Kunitskaya 24 of 49 48% 8 of 28 9 of 12 7 of 9 18 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Angelo picks Kunitskaya as an underdog, citing her well-roundedness. He notes Aldana is a pure boxer with power but only one way to win, while Kunitskaya has striking diversity, wrestling, and better cardio. He has a moneyline bet on Kunitskaya and is confident in her winning.

Moneyline bet on Kunitskaya
"i have kuniskaya winning this fight i have a money line bet on kunix guy i'm very confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Big Brady picks Yana Kunitskaya to win by decision. He notes that Yana is more well-rounded, has a better resume, and can mix in takedowns. He points out that Aldana's takedown defense (84%) may be inflated due to weak competition. He is concerned about Yana being finished in four of her five losses, but thinks if Yana takes it to the scorecards, she can win. He calls it a close fight, a coin flip.

"i'll take yana to win i'll take yon to win by decision but hard to be overly confident in it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Cody leans toward Kunitskaya as a slight underdog. He notes her clinch strength, durability, and improvement at American Top Team. He thinks she can neutralize Aldana's striking with grappling and cage control. He acknowledges Aldana's striking advantage but believes Kunitskaya's grappling will be the difference.

"i guess i would go with that slight underdog edge on januz kunikaya"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Daniel Levi picks Yana Kunitskaya as the underdog. He argues that Irene Aldana gets hit too much, absorbing over 100 strikes in multiple fights, and that she doesn't shoot takedowns, so the fight will stay standing. He believes Kunitskaya has good striking and can take advantage of Aldana's poor defense. He calls it a pick-em fight and likes getting plus money on Kunitskaya.

"i gotta go with yana kunitskaya to come out here and get this decision win for the upset"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Jacob picks Aldana using MMA math, noting that both Aldana and Kunitskaya beat Ketlen Vieira, but Aldana did it by KO while Kunitskaya won a decision. He acknowledges Angelo's criticism of MMA math but sticks with his pick. He seems less confident and admits it's a random pick.

"i was gonna go with yana until you and yana i'm going without donna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

I'm going with Kunitskaya by decision. This is a striker vs grappler matchup, and I trust Kunitskaya to land takedowns and control Aldana. Aldana gave up five takedowns to Holly Holm, and Kunitskaya is a better wrestler. I expect Kunitskaya to grind out a decision, similar to her fight against Lina Lansberg. No real conviction, but I like the grappler here.

"i'm taking queen skye by decision again no real no real conviction in terms of breaking down this fight even further than that it's pretty as simple as that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul has no clear pick. He discusses the grappling vs striking dynamic but finds it too risky. He notes the big cage favors Aldana but Kunitskaya's grappling could be effective. He calls it a pass.

"this is probably a pat this is a pass as far as i'm concerned"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Aldana by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Aldana's size and weight advantage will prevent Kunitskaya from taking her down, and her standup is far more educated. He expects Kunitskaya to wade forward looking for a clinch, while Aldana lands jabs, straight rights, and volume all fight long. The Guru thinks Kunitskaya will not look like she belongs in there, and Aldana will have a field day defending takedowns and landing punches.

"i think irene aldana is going to win this one i'll say 30 27 i think she's too big to be taken down by yanukonetskaya and i think her standup is just way more educated"
LOSS vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 154 of 301 51% 187 of 342 5 of 14 35% 0 0 5:16
Irene Aldana 0 69 of 185 37% 92 of 210 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 21 of 50 42% 31 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 23 of 47 48% 27 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 32 37% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 37 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:06
Irene Aldana 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Holly Holm 0 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Holly Holm 0 48 of 95 50% 53 of 102 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 154 of 301 51% 81 of 214 56 of 68 17 of 19 140 of 272 1 of 1 13 of 28
Irene Aldana 69 of 185 37% 38 of 128 12 of 30 19 of 27 65 of 181 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 21 of 50 42% 8 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 12 of 31 38% 3 of 14 1 of 4 8 of 13 12 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 23 of 47 48% 10 of 31 8 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 45 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 12 of 32 37% 5 of 21 2 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 12 of 38 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 0 of 0 9 of 24
Irene Aldana 9 of 25 36% 4 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Holly Holm 39 of 58 67% 14 of 28 19 of 24 6 of 6 37 of 56 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 18 of 42 42% 13 of 34 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Holly Holm 48 of 95 50% 37 of 84 11 of 11 0 of 0 47 of 94 1 of 1 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 18 of 55 32% 13 of 40 3 of 12 2 of 3 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.

"give me uh irene aldana to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.

Aldana by decision; mentions Aldana is the underdog at +100; notes hesitancy betting due to possibility of Holm winning a close decision
"i'm going to say irena aldana wins this decision by just slightly having more output than holly holm"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.

"i am going to take hollyoam to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.

Prediction: TKO round 2
"i'm going to go with irene o'donnell here i think she gets it done against holly holm"
WIN vs Ketlen Vieira
KO (punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 0 20 of 76 26% 20 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 1 26 of 71 36% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 0 20 of 76 26% 20 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 1 26 of 71 36% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 20 of 76 26% 19 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0 20 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 26 of 71 36% 13 of 52 7 of 13 6 of 6 24 of 69 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 20 of 76 26% 19 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0 20 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 26 of 71 36% 13 of 52 7 of 13 6 of 6 24 of 69 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ketlen Vieira vs. Irene Aldana

Round 1
Next up a bantamweight, the undefeated Vieira (10-0, 4-0 UFC) will make her long-awaited return after a nearly two-year layoff against tall Mexican boxer Aldana (11-5, 4-3 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog is taking charge of the cage for this bout. The two women touch gloves, and Vieira starts off with a big right hand that is blocked easily. Vieira presses forward, and as she wings a right hand, Aldana surprises her with a heavy leg kick. The Brazilian connects with a stiff right hand, and as she comes forward with more punches, Aldana strings a combination together to back her off. The two miss with one-twos, and Aldana catches her with a fierce right hand, but Vieira walks right through it. Aldana keeps her distance and blocks the oncoming attack of Vieira, and times a right straight to the body in response. Vieira swings and misses multiple times, and Aldana lands a right down the middle. "Fenomeno" loads up on her punches, and Aldana is keeping her strikes straighter and quicker. Landing another right hand, Aldana backs away to avoid a potential counter. Vieira scores a left to the body that makes Aldana backpedal, and the Mexican fighter lands a solid leg kick while backing away. Four punches fly from Aldana, and she lands one cleanly, leading Vieira to throw back two in her direction that glance off her intended target. Both score with powerful punches, and Aldana follows suit with a left to the body. Vieira unloads some heavy punches, but they are largely blocked, allowing Aldana to quickly counter.
As Vieira takes a moment to reset after that barrage, Aldana leaps in with a ferocious left hand that catches Vieira about as cleanly as it could possibly land. Vieira may be out as she falls to the canvas, but to be sure, Aldana follows her down with a blazing right hand that officially shuts the lights out, as Herzog springs in to rescue the unconscious fighter from Brazil.
Vieira is unbeaten no more, and Aldana scores what is likely the biggest win in her career with a devastating knockout.

The Official Result
Irene Aldana def. Ketlen Vieira R1 4:51 via KO (Punch)
WIN vs Vanessa Melo
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 0 125 of 333 37% 127 of 335 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Melo 0 68 of 250 27% 68 of 250 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 0 45 of 108 41% 45 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Melo 0 16 of 86 18% 16 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Irene Aldana 0 36 of 102 35% 36 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Melo 0 27 of 84 32% 27 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Irene Aldana 0 44 of 123 35% 46 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Melo 0 25 of 80 31% 25 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 125 of 333 37% 79 of 271 21 of 34 25 of 28 124 of 332 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vanessa Melo 68 of 250 27% 48 of 207 9 of 28 11 of 15 68 of 250 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 45 of 108 41% 26 of 87 8 of 10 11 of 11 45 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Melo 16 of 86 18% 11 of 72 2 of 9 3 of 5 16 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Irene Aldana 36 of 102 35% 23 of 83 6 of 10 7 of 9 36 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Melo 27 of 84 32% 21 of 72 3 of 9 3 of 3 27 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Irene Aldana 44 of 123 35% 30 of 101 7 of 14 7 of 8 43 of 122 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vanessa Melo 25 of 80 31% 16 of 63 4 of 10 5 of 7 25 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.

"give me uh irene aldana to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.

Aldana by decision; mentions Aldana is the underdog at +100; notes hesitancy betting due to possibility of Holm winning a close decision
"i'm going to say irena aldana wins this decision by just slightly having more output than holly holm"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.

"i am going to take hollyoam to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.

Prediction: TKO round 2
"i'm going to go with irene o'donnell here i think she gets it done against holly holm"