UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 Next Fight
Age N/A
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ariane da Silva
4.05 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.4 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luana Carolina
4.65 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.46 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.3 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Ariane da Silva - Fight History
LOSS vs Wang Cong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 63 of 176 35% 65 of 178 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 143 of 222 64% 147 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 41 41% 17 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 46 of 65 70% 48 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ariane da Silva 0 19 of 59 32% 21 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 42 of 64 65% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 55 of 93 59% 55 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 63 of 176 35% 31 of 121 20 of 37 12 of 18 55 of 164 8 of 12 0 of 0
Wang Cong 143 of 222 64% 75 of 148 28 of 31 40 of 43 127 of 206 13 of 13 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 41 41% 9 of 29 4 of 7 4 of 5 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
Wang Cong 46 of 65 70% 16 of 34 12 of 12 18 of 19 39 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 19 of 59 32% 11 of 44 5 of 10 3 of 5 16 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
Wang Cong 42 of 64 65% 19 of 39 8 of 8 15 of 17 37 of 59 2 of 2 3 of 3
3 Ariane da Silva 27 of 76 35% 11 of 48 11 of 20 5 of 8 24 of 71 3 of 5 0 of 0
Wang Cong 55 of 93 59% 40 of 75 8 of 11 7 of 7 51 of 89 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Angelo picks Wang Cong but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Ariane Lipski's underrated striking and ability to make it competitive. He thinks Wang's power will add up over time and Lipski will become afraid to engage. He notes the odds are almost 4-to-1 and says he will likely avoid betting on this fight.

Likely to avoid betting on this fight.
"I am going to pick Kong because her power is insane. ... I'm likely going to avoid this fight altogether."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Big Brady picks Wang Cong, citing her high-level striking and the fact that Ariane da Silva has been finished in five of her losses, four by KO. He thinks da Silva doesn't like getting hit and that Cong can finish her on the feet or by mixing in takedowns, as da Silva's ground game is suspect. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cong by KO in round 2
"I like Kong Wong. I'm going to take Kong Wong to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Wang Cong is expected to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. She will land more effective damage throughout the fight and chip away at Lipski to win on the scorecards.

"I fully expect Wang to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. And I ultimately think she can land more effective damage throughout the 15 minutes in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

The MMA Guru confidently picks Wang Cong, citing her superior kickboxing, power, and ability to finish. He notes Ariane da Silva has submission skills but lacks power and is reactionary. He predicts Wang Cong wins by TKO in the first round, dominating exchanges. He mentions Wang Cong's only loss was a fluke submission she would win 8 out of 10 times.

Finish prediction: first round TKO.
"I'm going with Wang Kong. She's just good at fighting, you know."
Submission (brabo choke) R3 2:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 42 of 92 45% 43 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 36 of 84 42% 130 of 218 3 of 5 60% 1 0 5:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 46 28% 20 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 28 60% 83 of 120 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:42
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 6 of 10 60% 27 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 42 of 92 45% 26 of 65 15 of 23 1 of 4 41 of 88 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 36 of 84 42% 29 of 76 5 of 6 2 of 2 24 of 70 1 of 1 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 27 of 57 47% 17 of 39 10 of 15 0 of 3 27 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 46 28% 10 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 9 of 20 45% 4 of 13 4 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 17 of 28 60% 15 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 6 of 15 40% 5 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo is confident Jasmine wins, citing her superior wrestling and pressure. He disagrees with those who think Ariane da Silva is a bad matchup for Jasmine. He notes Ariane has improved but Jasmine is a better wrestler than Karini Silva, who outwrestled Ariane. He expects Jasmine to get takedowns and win, though he wishes the line were more affordable. He may add action as the week goes on.

"Jasmine wins this fight she is minus 184 wish she was a little more affordable than that but I am confident she gets the takedown confident she gets the win and we'll have some action on her as the week …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but with some concern. He acknowledges that Ariane da Silva has improved her takedown defense significantly, stuffing many takedowns in recent fights. However, Brady believes Jasudavicius is a much better wrestler than those opponents and will get takedowns. He notes that if Jasudavicius can't get takedowns, she is in trouble on the feet, but he leans toward her wrestling winning out.

"I'll take Jasmine here to win this fight by decision could get sketchy she's probably going to eat some big shots but I'll take Jaz deicious to win this fight by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, expecting her to spam takedowns and rack up control time. He notes that Ariane Lipski has been taken down frequently in the past, and Jasudavicius's wrestling should be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges that Jasudavicius's striking is not elite but believes her grappling will be the difference.

"I expect her to go out there spam take Downs get rack up a whole bunch of control time and probably win a very convincing decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to pace Ariane da Silva, but notes it's a pass at the betting line. He acknowledges da Silva's recent improvements in maturity and output, but believes Jasudavicius's relentless pace and pressure will be too much. Vreeland expects Jasudavicius to push the pace and potentially get a finish, though he's not confident enough to bet at -225.

"I'm picking Jasmine jici is to come out here and the pace Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius will put a grind on da Silva, put her in uncomfortable positions, chain wrestling attempts together, and win on the scorecards. Da Silva's defensive grappling improvements were against lower-level grapplers, and she struggled against more impressive grapplers like Jasudavicius.

"Jasudavicius should be able to put that grind on her put her in uncomfortable positions chain wrestling attempts together and win this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Ariane Lipski as an underdog, arguing that her takedown defense has improved significantly since joining American Top Team, stuffing 21 straight takedown attempts before facing Karine Silva. He believes Lipski is the better striker and can keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes that Jasudavicius struggled to takedown Tracy Cortez and was out struck in that fight.

"I take a flyer on the underdog here for lipsky."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva, noting Jasudavicius's recent decent performances and size advantage. He questions da Silva's consistency and believes Jasudavicius's momentum and reach will carry her to a win.

"I'm going to go Jasmine judicious little bit bigger as well little bit rangier that goes a long way in these lower divisions"
LOSS vs Karine Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 42 of 81 51% 89 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 75 36% 53 of 120 5 of 6 83% 0 0 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 7 of 13 53% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 17 23% 15 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
3 Karine Silva 0 26 of 50 52% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 38 34% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 42 of 81 51% 12 of 37 22 of 29 8 of 15 31 of 66 8 of 11 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 27 of 75 36% 8 of 29 9 of 32 10 of 14 21 of 65 2 of 4 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 7 of 13 53% 4 of 8 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 4 of 17 23% 0 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 8 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 20 50% 4 of 10 3 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 1 4 of 5
3 Karine Silva 26 of 50 52% 7 of 21 16 of 20 3 of 9 19 of 41 7 of 9 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 38 34% 4 of 12 4 of 18 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.

Bet: at +118 (now -140)
"I bet bet her at plus 118 ... karini Silva is the pick and hopefully you were a premium member so you saw that bet before the line moved"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.

"I think Arion lipsky is heading in the right direction now"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.

"I think karini Silva is going to come out here and finish Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.

"I am going to lean ever so slightly to the lipsky side though as I think that she has a good enough takedown defense game here to keep this fight upright"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.

"I'll take lipsky as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.

"I'm going Karen Silva consistency recent levels of consistency from Karen Silva have superseded ariani lipsky's overall somewhat goodness in fights"
WIN vs Casey O'Neill
Submission (armbar) R2 1:18 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 74 41% 32 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 64 of 127 50% 86 of 152 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 28 of 68 41% 29 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 39 of 93 41% 44 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
2 Ariane da Silva 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey O'Neill 0 25 of 34 73% 42 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 31 of 74 41% 17 of 57 3 of 3 11 of 14 29 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 64 of 127 50% 45 of 106 16 of 18 3 of 3 37 of 95 9 of 11 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 28 of 68 41% 15 of 52 3 of 3 10 of 13 26 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 39 of 93 41% 21 of 73 15 of 17 3 of 3 29 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1
2 Ariane da Silva 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 25 of 34 73% 24 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.

"I'm going to lean ariani here... Ariana lipsky is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.

"give me Casey O'Neal to finish this fight by second round at TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.

"I'm gonna to enact the CF doop model here again Cody Arion lipsky is the pick for me"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.

"I like Lipski in this spot... I'm picking Ariane Lipski outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.

Lipski by decision
"I'm officially on the lipsky train and I feel like again somebody is still as raw as untested is you know I don't want to say that fully you know O'Neal she's faced some decent names but she's still yet …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"I'm gonna go end up going with O'Neal by decision yeah just don't feel super confident about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.

"I'm GNA go with Casey O'Neal over ariani lipin... Casey O'Neal puts a way higher volume out there and in women's MMA if it's close they might just just look at the person that's throwing more punches"
WIN vs Melissa Gatto
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 66 of 149 44% 81 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Melissa Gatto 0 85 of 186 45% 100 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 16 of 49 32% 18 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melissa Gatto 0 28 of 53 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Ariane da Silva 0 26 of 46 56% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 66 50% 45 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Melissa Gatto 0 24 of 67 35% 27 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 66 of 149 44% 28 of 101 27 of 36 11 of 12 53 of 131 12 of 15 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 85 of 186 45% 39 of 117 34 of 50 12 of 19 70 of 165 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 16 of 49 32% 3 of 30 9 of 15 4 of 4 14 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 28 of 53 52% 13 of 31 10 of 15 5 of 7 25 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 26 of 46 56% 10 of 27 12 of 14 4 of 5 18 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 33 of 66 50% 11 of 37 17 of 21 5 of 8 23 of 52 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 24 of 54 44% 15 of 44 6 of 7 3 of 3 21 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 24 of 67 35% 15 of 49 7 of 14 2 of 4 22 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.

plus 3.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"I'm going to go against the logic I'm going to pick lipsky like she looked so good against JJ Aldridge"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.

first round submission
"give me got her to win this fight by first round I'll say sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.

"I too will take lip ski all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.

missed the line at -150; Gatto minus 230
"I definitely favorite gato here it's just you know all you guys that came in on that minus 150. that minus 170. you all did your job"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.

"I am tempted for uh to to enact the CF dot model on this one Cody is has ariani lipsky turned the corner here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.

submission off her back, armbar
"all the logic in the world is pointing me towards Melissa gato here"
WIN vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 101 of 204 49% 113 of 216 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 49 of 99 49% 56 of 106 0 of 12 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 67 52% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 11 of 20 55% 14 of 23 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 64 48% 38 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 18 of 40 45% 22 of 44 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 101 of 204 49% 47 of 134 42 of 56 12 of 14 77 of 176 24 of 28 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 49 of 99 49% 42 of 92 4 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 35 of 67 52% 17 of 42 15 of 20 3 of 5 22 of 53 13 of 14 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 73 47% 15 of 48 15 of 20 5 of 5 30 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 20 of 39 51% 18 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 31 of 64 48% 15 of 44 12 of 16 4 of 4 25 of 55 6 of 9 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 18 of 40 45% 15 of 37 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.

1.5 unit bet at -220
"I've got a one and a half unit bet that's a lot of money on JJ Aldridge but I got a one and a half unit bet at minus 220. I'm just very confident in her ability to go out …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.

win by TKO in round 3
"I like Aldrich to have success in the Striking mixing the takedowns win minutes on the on the feet on the mat and I'm gonna say Aldridge eventually gets a TKO here late late fight uh late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.

"we're gonna take JJ Aldridge she'll probably be somewhere around like the second or third lot I don't want her on the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.

Aldrich opened at unknown, now -380 to -450; Lipski +285 to +350. Connor says the odds feel appropriate.
"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.

"I think a combination of aldrich's output footwork and ability to stay safe at distance is going to overwhelm lipsky here and I think Aldrich boxes her way to a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.

under 2.5 rounds +165
"JJ Aldridge can win this fight standing she can win this fight to the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.

by decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with JJ Aldridge here being the better more well-rounded fighter overall and a bit tougher"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.

"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
TKO (punches) R1 1:05 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Ariane Lipski
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lipski (-195), Cachoeira (+165)

Round 1
This is another rescheduled fight from last week’s event, with both women moving up a division to keep the bout intact. After a rough start to her UFC tenure, Brazil’s Cachoeira is building momentum with three wins in her last four outings. A former KSW champ, Lipski has been up and down since signing with the Las Vegas-based promotion. Herb Dean is in charge of the contest. Lipski catches Cachoeira with a counter right. Cachoeira lands a right of her own. “Zombie Girl” moves forward to force the brawl she desires and Lipski obliges. That turns out to be the wrong decision, as a left hook from Cachoeira backs up “The Violence Queen.” Cachoeira forces the issue, landing more shots.
Lipski is firing back but leaving herself exposed, and eventually the onslaught from Cachoeira drops her opponent — puncutated by a right to the chin. Cachoeira smells blood, and a barrage of punches and hammerfists on the canvas on a defenseless Lipski brings the show to a close.

The Official Result
Priscila Cachoeira def. Ariane Lipski via TKO (Punches) R1 1:05
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.

"i'm full on switching my pick i'm going priscilla cachera here she was always the more dangerous fighter in this matchup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.

first round submission
"i think lipski takes the path of release resistance get this fight down to the mat and submits catch aware in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.

"there's just no world that exists that i want to bet priscilla cachuera it just does it's not happening"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.

Cachoeira round three +2000; Cachoeira moneyline +150
"i'm already on catch awara plus 150 the market is moving against me i'm already on catch aware uh 20 to one in round three"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.

submission in first or second round
"i can see ariana lipski getting this one to the ground and finding herself a submission victory in the first or second round"
WIN vs Mandy Böhm
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 2 87 of 194 44% 116 of 233 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:26
Mandy Böhm 0 36 of 108 33% 47 of 123 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 50 34% 44 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 26 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 87 of 194 44% 27 of 106 53 of 73 7 of 15 64 of 157 15 of 23 8 of 14
Mandy Böhm 36 of 108 33% 18 of 84 12 of 16 6 of 8 31 of 101 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 50 34% 7 of 34 9 of 13 1 of 3 14 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 2
Mandy Böhm 12 of 26 46% 2 of 12 6 of 10 4 of 4 9 of 21 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.

Moneyline bet at -121, 1 unit
"ariana lipsky is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.

second round TKO or submission
"i'm going to take the underdog and mandy baum"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.

"i'm gonna go with mandy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.

"i do have to lean with the experience of lipski i just think that experience counts for a lot in this game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.

Ariane Lipski by TKO +500, Under 2.5 rounds +185
"I do think she eventually finds that tko in the second round here by over one overwhelming mandy bomb on the feet uh and getting her out of there lipski by tko is plus 500"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.

"i can't bet anybody who gets absolutely throttled in the wrestling department by antonina shivchenko it's just not gonna happen so i'm with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.

"i'm going to go with mandy bomb here and she's also evens with ariana lipsky"
Luana Carolina - Fight History
CANCEL vs Melissa Mullins
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo picks Luana Carolina because she is the better striker with solid takedown defense (68%). He notes Melissa Mullins is too hittable with no head movement and her offensive wrestling is not great. He believes Luana should win everywhere and is surprised she is the underdog, expecting the line to flip.

surprised she's a dog; expects line to flip to favorite
"I think Luanna Karolina wins this fight. I think she's the better fighter basically everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Big Brady picks Melissa Mullins despite her terrible fight IQ, noting that she has a massive advantage on the ground with nasty ground and pound. He points out that Luana Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and that Mullins should be able to take her down and control her. However, he is hesitant because Mullins often refuses to wrestle and instead tests her striking, as seen in her last fight. He predicts a decision win for Mullins.

Melissa Mullins by decision
"I'm going to take Melissa Mullins here for the win, but it's really hard to be confident in her after she pulled an absolute stunt in her last fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Cody agrees, noting Mullins' weight misses and lack of heart. He expects Carolina to win.

"I think Carolina's the side here as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Connor picks Melissa Mullins, agreeing that you take the grappler in this matchup. He notes that Mullins is relentlessly aggressive with takedowns and ground control, while Carolina is a volume striker who can be beaten by grappling. Connor also advises against betting on this fight.

Odds comment: Mullins opened -150, now +110; Carolina opened +130, now -130. Connor says don't bet on this one.
"Yeah, in a matchup like that, you take the rest of it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel leans Carolina due to her experience and ability to weasel decisions. He notes Mullins has head-scratching moments and can be finished. However, he acknowledges it's women's MMA and the British fighter might have crowd support.

"That experience gap for Luana Carolina leans me over to her side, but it's women's MMA. The British fighter, you know, might have some pull with the crowd. I'm going to go Carolina."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Carolina to win by decision. He cites her experience and striking prowess, but acknowledges she can be taken down. He expects Carolina to get back to her feet and outpoint Mullins over three rounds.

"I'm going to pick Lana Karolina to come out here and uh win a decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

James picks Luana Carolina but is not confident. He thinks Carolina is the better striker and has more UFC experience, but her takedown defense is a concern. He notes that Mullins has poor fight IQ and may not shoot takedowns consistently. He predicts a decision win for Carolina.

"I'm going to pick Lana Karolina in this one. There's no confidence here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The host is hesitant but leans towards Luana Carolina. He notes that Mullins has a grappling advantage but questions whether she will actually wrestle after failing to do so in her last fight. He believes Carolina's striking edge and improved defensive grappling could lead to a decision win. However, he admits he has underrated Carolina in the past and sees this as a potential breakout performance.

"I feel like this might be one of those spots where she could have a breakout performance where she stops the takedowns of Mullins or at least quickly works back to her feet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul picks Carolina, citing Mullins' poor durability and tendency to quit. He expects Carolina to outwork and finish Mullins.

"For me, it's Lana Karolina all day long."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Mullins over Luana Carolina, though he admits neither fighter has been impressive. He notes Mullins is younger and may show more improvement fight to fight, while Carolina hasn't done much lately and has lost to lower-level opponents. He seems uncertain but goes with Mullins.

"I am going to go with Melissa Mullins to defeat Lanna Karolina here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Zane picks Melissa Mullins, reasoning that in a matchup between a relentless grappler (Mullins) and a volume striker (Carolina), you take the grappler who can control the fight. He notes that Mullins is aggressive with takedowns and ground control, but if she can't get takedowns, she's cooked. Zane advises not betting on this fight.

Odds comment: Mullins opened -150, now +110; Carolina opened +130, now -130. Zane says don't bet on this one.
"I think I'm going to take Mullins. In a matchup like that, you take the rest of it."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Montague 0 41 of 88 46% 99 of 164 5 of 7 71% 0 0 10:43
Luana Carolina 0 48 of 82 58% 75 of 115 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Montague 0 10 of 32 31% 25 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Luana Carolina 0 24 of 36 66% 39 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Michelle Montague 0 17 of 32 53% 38 of 55 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:42
Luana Carolina 0 15 of 25 60% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michelle Montague 0 14 of 24 58% 36 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:17
Luana Carolina 0 9 of 21 42% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Montague 41 of 88 46% 34 of 77 6 of 9 1 of 2 12 of 36 1 of 1 28 of 51
Luana Carolina 48 of 82 58% 31 of 60 5 of 6 12 of 16 46 of 77 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Montague 10 of 32 31% 8 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 8
Luana Carolina 24 of 36 66% 11 of 20 3 of 4 10 of 12 23 of 34 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michelle Montague 17 of 32 53% 12 of 25 4 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 19
Luana Carolina 15 of 25 60% 12 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Michelle Montague 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 24
Luana Carolina 9 of 21 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Angelo picks Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) over Luana Carolina, citing Montague's wrestling and jiu-jitsu background at an international level, her willingness to strike, and her size. He acknowledges Luana Carolina's takedown defense and clinch work but believes Montague's aggression and grappling will be too much. He dismisses the knockout loss to Molly McCann as a fluke.

"Michelle Monte wins this fight. She's going to be the pick. I am surprised to see the line continuing to widen because we do have a proven fighter in the way."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Big Brady picks Darrell Montague to win by second-round submission. He highlights Montague's submission expertise, noting all six wins are by rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Montague is one-dimensional and has poor striking, but believes she will get a takedown due to her physicality and Carolina's questionable takedown defense. He notes Carolina has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

submission, second round
"I like Montigue here. I like Montigue by submission. I'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Cody picks Montague, citing her grappling pedigree and size advantage moving down to 135. He notes Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and is moving up in weight, while Montague is a strong grappler with a rear-naked choke streak. He warns about Montague's cardio but thinks she can win the first two rounds.

"Michelle Montigu bigger, stronger, have the fan support, trains at at love it, and probably will get takedowns just like the other ones have done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Connor agrees, noting that Montague's recent fights show her shooting immediately for back takes, which will be a problem for Carolina. He also mentions that Carolina's chin is high and she relies on reach, but Montague has the same reach and is bigger. He thinks Montague's grappling will be decisive.

"What we've seen from Montague in her past couple bouts is somebody who goes out immediately and shoots and works for back takes, and I think that'll just wreck Carolina."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

James is confident in Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) due to her massive size advantage and elite back-taking ability. He notes she has submitted every opponent via rear-naked choke and that Luana Carolina is moving up from flyweight, making her vulnerable to grappling. He predicts a submission win.

by submission (rear-naked choke)
"Michelle Montigu via submission is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The host expresses concern about Montague's weight cut to 135 lbs for the first time, but if successful, expects her to ragdoll Luana Carolina and secure another submission victory. The pick is conditional on making weight.

submission victory
"The weight is a big concern here for Montigue, who's going to be coming down to 135 lbs for the first time in her career, but if she does this successfully, I expect her to go out there and ragd …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The Guru picks Michelle Montigue (Darrell Montague) confidently, impressed by her consistent first-round submission finishes and amateur experience. He sees Luana Carolina as a potential fraud check but believes Montigue's training at American Top Team and dominant style will lead to another first-round rear-naked choke victory.

first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Michelle Montigue getting this one done over Lanna Karolina."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Zane sees Montague as a bigger, stronger fighter who will shoot for takedowns and back takes, which should wreck Carolina. He notes that Carolina's success depends on being taller and longer, but Montague is two inches taller with the same reach and looks more muscular. He also points out that Montague has shown a consistent ability to stay on the back foot and outpoint opponents if needed.

"Montague will be one of the few women Carolina has ever fought who is bigger than her... She may just feel like a much bigger, stronger fighter."
CANCEL vs Montana De La Rosa
UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.

Solid bet; lady over is probably the way to go
"I think this is a pretty straightforward win and I think it's going to be LNA Carolina she's by far the better striker in this matchup and if she can keep this fight standing she absolutely wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.

fight goes to decision; close split decision
"I slightly got to go to the Luana Carolina side I'm going to pick her to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.

"I believe Del Rosa's wrestling style will pay off for a year and it will start to expose the holes that are still in Lana Carolina's game look for delar Rosa to smother her with her grappling maybe open up …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Carolina

The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.

"I'm going to go with Lana carolina... she'll be able to win this one on the feet and she'll have more grit and heart and determination."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 94 of 167 56% 114 of 199 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Lucie Pudilová 0 43 of 114 37% 62 of 145 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 33 of 51 64% 38 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 32 18% 14 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
2 Luana Carolina 0 24 of 50 48% 28 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lucie Pudilová 0 22 of 43 51% 27 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
3 Luana Carolina 0 37 of 66 56% 48 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 15 of 39 38% 21 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 94 of 167 56% 45 of 101 23 of 35 26 of 31 73 of 142 21 of 25 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 43 of 114 37% 25 of 86 16 of 23 2 of 5 27 of 93 16 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 33 of 51 64% 14 of 29 6 of 9 13 of 13 25 of 41 8 of 10 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 32 18% 5 of 25 1 of 4 0 of 3 5 of 29 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luana Carolina 24 of 50 48% 13 of 36 7 of 9 4 of 5 16 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 22 of 43 51% 12 of 33 10 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 28 13 of 15 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 37 of 66 56% 18 of 36 10 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 60 5 of 6 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 15 of 39 38% 8 of 28 5 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo is surprised that Luana Carolina is a plus-money underdog, as he believes she is the better striker with solid takedown defense and clinch work. He notes that Lucie Pudilová has poor takedown defense and is not the better wrestler or striker. He has placed a half-unit bet on Luana at plus money, expecting the line to move.

half unit bet at plus money
"Lanna Carolina is going to be the pick she's a plus money Underdog and I have a half a unit bet on her at plus money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Cody picks Carolina, highlighting her better competition, volume, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Pudilová's poor takedown accuracy and that she struggles when taken down. He thinks Carolina will win with damage in the clinch and on the ground, and that judges will favor her output.

"She's the player for me this week."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Carolina, citing Pudilová's poor record with judges and her increased hesitancy. He notes Carolina's Muay Thai background and recent submission win. Vreeland expects a kickboxing match that goes to decision, with Carolina getting the nod.

"I see it going all three and uh Lana is going to get the decision here the judges hate uh the judges AB absolutely hate Lucia pudova"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Pudilová is a slight underdog at +100. She has improved her grappling since her first UFC stint and can use her striking to set up takedowns, unlike Stoliarenko who pulls guard. Pudilová's aggressiveness and ability to mix in takedowns should keep Carolina uncomfortable at distance. I think Pudilová is the better overall fighter and can grind out a decision win.

"I do think that pudova is the better overall fighter and optically speaking I think she can make it look better for the judges so give me pudilova and Pila by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul agrees, saying Carolina is the pick all day. He thinks wrestling will be negated and that Carolina's striking and clinch work will be key. He was impressed with her win over Stoliarenko.

"I think it's Carolina all day to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina, calling Lucie Pudilová 'garbage'. He notes Carolina stuffed takedowns from Lupita Godinez, who has good wrestling, and believes Carolina can out-grapple or out-strike Pudilová. He compares Pudilová's win over Yanan Wu unfavorably to Carolina's similar style, and cites Carolina's size and reach advantage.

"I'm going to go with Lanna Carolina because uh Lucy pyo's garbage"
TKO (punches) R3 4:52 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 66 of 136 48% 138 of 230 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:27
Julija Stoliarenko 0 16 of 59 27% 21 of 68 1 of 5 20% 3 0 3:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 12 of 32 37% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Julija Stoliarenko 0 6 of 25 24% 6 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:46
2 Luana Carolina 0 25 of 55 45% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Julija Stoliarenko 0 10 of 28 35% 14 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
3 Luana Carolina 0 29 of 49 59% 60 of 89 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:25
Julija Stoliarenko 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 3 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 66 of 136 48% 41 of 96 15 of 26 10 of 14 28 of 75 13 of 20 25 of 41
Julija Stoliarenko 16 of 59 27% 7 of 40 6 of 10 3 of 9 11 of 51 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 12 of 32 37% 6 of 20 3 of 7 3 of 5 7 of 27 4 of 4 1 of 1
Julija Stoliarenko 6 of 25 24% 2 of 17 1 of 3 3 of 5 5 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luana Carolina 25 of 55 45% 13 of 38 6 of 9 6 of 8 14 of 36 4 of 6 7 of 13
Julija Stoliarenko 10 of 28 35% 5 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 3 6 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 29 of 49 59% 22 of 38 6 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 12 5 of 10 17 of 27
Julija Stoliarenko 0 of 6 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Angelo picks Julija Stoliarenko to win but strongly advises against betting on her. He compares her to Malcolm Gordon, a previous 'cash cow' that lost. He notes that Stoliarenko's path to victory is getting a takedown, but she is not a good fighter overall. He emphasizes that Luana Carolina is the better fighter overall but has been taken down frequently, which could be exploited.

No bet advised; warns against betting on Stoliarenko despite picking her
"I'm going to pick Julia to win because Lena Carolina has been taken down many times... but there's not a world where I spend money on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Big Brady picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by first-round armbar. He notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with 10 wins by armbar, all in the first round. He believes her aggressiveness and improved wrestling will cause problems for Luana Carolina, who has questionable decision-making and has almost been submitted in recent fights. He expects the fight to hit the mat, where Stoliarenko is extremely dangerous.

first round, submission (armbar)
"give me stoia Rano it's weird seeing her as a favorite ... I'll say she does get that armar in the first round and gets the job done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Cody picks Stoliarenko by submission, calling it the play of the week. He notes Stoliarenko's elite armbar from guard and Carolina's poor takedown defense and physical strength. He expects Stoliarenko to get the fight to the mat and submit her quickly.

Stoliarenko by submission +205
"stinko sub is the play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Stoliarenko's persistence and expertise in armbars should be too much for Carolina. Once Stoliarenko snatches an arm, it's only a matter of time before she gets the tap. Carolina's takedown defense is improving, but Stoliarenko's strength and Judo will likely get the fight to the ground.

Under 2.5 rounds is plus 120 and could cover a Carolina finish, but host expects Stoliarenko by submission.
"I like sto Reno here I wish he was the underdog cuz you know I don't really like to invest too much into a fighter that only has that One path to Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Paul picks Stoliarenko by submission, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Carolina's vulnerability to takedowns and Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He thinks the plus-205 price is excellent value.

Stoliarenko by submission +205
"stinko sub plus 205 at one book right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko, questioning whether Stoliarenko is actually good or just benefited from Molly McCann's poor ground game. He notes Carolina has better standup and overall ability, and that Stoliarenko has a rough weight cut at 125. He expects Carolina to win, likely as an underdog.

likely as an underdog
"I'm gonna go with Lanna Carolina over J Juliana Julia steno... I'm going to go with Lanna karolina I reckon she's got some time to improve herself as a fighter... likely as an underdog."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 22 of 62 35% 77 of 122 2 of 6 33% 2 1 4:11
Ivana Petrović 0 41 of 87 47% 112 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 5:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 3 of 15 20% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:22
Ivana Petrović 0 10 of 22 45% 31 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:08
2 Luana Carolina 0 13 of 32 40% 28 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:58
Ivana Petrović 0 16 of 38 42% 47 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:24
3 Luana Carolina 0 6 of 15 40% 31 of 40 1 of 3 33% 2 0 0:51
Ivana Petrović 0 15 of 27 55% 34 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 22 of 62 35% 15 of 51 5 of 8 2 of 3 16 of 50 4 of 10 2 of 2
Ivana Petrović 41 of 87 47% 18 of 60 11 of 15 12 of 12 27 of 66 7 of 8 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 3 of 15 20% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ivana Petrović 10 of 22 45% 3 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 6 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 9
2 Luana Carolina 13 of 32 40% 9 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 22 4 of 8 2 of 2
Ivana Petrović 16 of 38 42% 6 of 25 7 of 10 3 of 3 11 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 6 of 15 40% 3 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ivana Petrović 15 of 27 55% 9 of 21 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ivana Petrović

Angelo picks Ivana Petrović, expecting her grappling to be the difference. He notes she should be able to take down Luana Carolina and either submit or grind out a decision. However, he finds the -200 odds too wide for a UFC debut with only six fights and advises against betting. He warns against the over 2.5 rounds as the fight could end either way.

"Ivana should be able to drag Luanna to the ground and either submit her or just grind out a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady picks Luana Carolina by decision, but is very reluctant. He thinks Carolina is the better striker and has solid takedown defense, but notes she has been taken down and put in trouble before. Petrović has a good ground game and could finish if she gets on top. Brady calls it a terrible fight and advises not to bet on it.

"I'll take Carolina by decision oh that was gross oh gonna throw up I'm gonna take Carolina by decision don't bet on this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Cody likes Carolina as a plus-money underdog. He notes Petrović is very green (less than 2 years pro) and has been dropped in fights. Carolina has fought better competition and has a striking advantage. Cody thinks Carolina can keep the fight standing and win a decision, especially if she defends takedowns. He compares it to other recent underdog wins.

"I'm going with the CF dog model myself I thought exact same thing"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel picks Luana Carolina as an underdog, citing her experience and takedown defense (2 of 15 allowed against Godinez). He notes Petrović is hittable and unproven at UFC level, and that debuts often disappoint. He sees a close kickboxing match where Carolina's volume and durability could edge her ahead. He is willing to take a shot at plus odds.

"I'm also go with uh Luana let's see what she can do with this opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul is considering Carolina as a dog. He notes Petrović's wrestling is her only path, but her stand-up is green and she was dropped by a short elbow. Carolina has good balance in the clinch and striking advantage. Paul thinks if Petrović can't get takedowns, Carolina wins. He is watching the market for a better price.

"I am considering uh a bet on Luanna Carolina who I think in the clinch is going to have some nasty elbows"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ivana Petrović

The Guru picks Ivana Petrović, citing her undefeated record (6-0) and good cardio shown in a fourth-round submission win. He notes Luana Carolina's losses to Molly McCann and Joanne Calderwood, and while Carolina beat Lupita Godinez, she was much larger. He trusts the undefeated prospect but acknowledges women's MMA is unpredictable.

"I'm probably gonna go with Petrovic here over Luana Carolina... she's 6-0 undefeated"
LOSS vs Joanne Wood
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanne Wood 0 131 of 228 57% 177 of 278 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:50
Luana Carolina 0 100 of 199 50% 123 of 222 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanne Wood 0 38 of 62 61% 55 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Luana Carolina 0 38 of 65 58% 42 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Joanne Wood 0 33 of 60 55% 56 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Luana Carolina 0 24 of 53 45% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
3 Joanne Wood 0 60 of 106 56% 66 of 112 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Luana Carolina 0 38 of 81 46% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanne Wood 131 of 228 57% 61 of 142 46 of 53 24 of 33 84 of 177 46 of 50 1 of 1
Luana Carolina 100 of 199 50% 55 of 144 34 of 40 11 of 15 75 of 165 25 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanne Wood 38 of 62 61% 13 of 32 17 of 20 8 of 10 20 of 42 18 of 20 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 38 of 65 58% 15 of 38 16 of 19 7 of 8 25 of 50 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Joanne Wood 33 of 60 55% 16 of 39 8 of 10 9 of 11 21 of 48 11 of 11 1 of 1
Luana Carolina 24 of 53 45% 14 of 40 9 of 11 1 of 2 18 of 44 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Joanne Wood 60 of 106 56% 32 of 71 21 of 23 7 of 12 43 of 87 17 of 19 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 38 of 81 46% 26 of 66 9 of 10 3 of 5 32 of 71 6 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Angelo thinks Joanne Wood should win because she is better everywhere and has faced elite competition. He notes her losses are to champions and title contenders. He placed a half-unit bet on her at -150 three weeks ago and got good closing value. He is concerned about Wood's motivation and age but still expects her to win.

bet placed at -150, now -190
"I do think Joanne wood wins this fight three weeks ago I threw a half a unit on her at minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood but with low confidence, noting she has looked like she doesn't want to be there recently. He acknowledges Wood's losses are to elite competition, and she should win this fight due to volume striking and Carolina's lack of takedowns. However, he is scared by Wood's recent performances and will not bet this fight.

will not bet this fight
"do I have confidence in Wood no ... but she better win this fight man"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Cody picks Wood reluctantly, noting her experience and technical Muay Thai. He thinks Carolina's takedown defense is poor and Wood can take her down if needed. He acknowledges Wood's durability and motivation are questions at 37, but believes Carolina is there to be beaten. He says he's likely screwed betting women's MMA but picks Wood.

"I will have to take Joanne wood reluctantly not reluctantly because I don't want to reluctantly because I know as soon as I bet an MMA women's MMA spot I'm likely screwed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Connor picks Wood but is very hesitant, acknowledging her recent mental and physical decline. He believes she should win against a fighter as limited as Carolina, but he doubts Wood's current mindset. He notes that Wood has never been knocked out and has the tools to win if she fights on the front foot.

"I'm gonna stick with a desperation pick for Wood of like you should not lose to a fighter this bad."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jacob sees this as a very close fight and is staying away. He thinks both fighters have similar styles and it will likely go to a split decision. He notes Luana Carolina could come on strong late and that Joanne Wood's motivation is questionable. He might bet on a split decision prop but is not picking a winner.

split decision prop considered
"I wouldn't pick either side on this I think it's sloppy I think it's back and forth I think it's close comes down to the judges."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Wood is on a three-fight losing streak but those losses came against top competition (Santos, Grasso). She is a solid striker with good footwork, output, and elbows. Carolina is a decent striker but her wins are questionable and she was knocked out by Molly McCann. Wood should be the better technical striker and outwork Carolina over three rounds, possibly mixing in elbows. Carolina's takedowns are not expected to be a threat.

"I think wood will shuck off the inevitable takedowns that are coming our way and she will get back to that game that just has made her so successful in the UFC which is cardio footwork output and throwing in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Paul picks Wood, but his favorite prop is over 63.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks. He thinks the fight goes 15 minutes and Wood lands well over that number. He says Wood by decision is likely but the moneyline is better than the decision prop. He notes Wood's recent losses were to elite competition and she should handle Carolina.

Joanne Wood over 63.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"on prize picks they've got a promo code dop they got 65 or 63.5 significant strikes love that prop that's like my my favorite prop this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood over Luana Carolina, calling it a 'no-brainer' despite the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Wood has lost only to top competition like Grasso, Santos, and Murphy, while Carolina lost to Molly McCann who is not elite. He acknowledges Wood's jiu-jitsu vulnerabilities but believes her striking and experience will carry her to a decision win.

"I'll go with Joanne Calderwood I guess because Luana Carolina lost a Molly McCann"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Zane picks Carolina as a gut pick, citing Wood's psychological fragility. He notes that Wood has looked increasingly flinchy and prone to giving up, while Carolina is scrappy and has shown resilience. Zane believes Carolina's pressure and clinch work could break Wood's will, even though Carolina is technically inferior.

"I'm kind of making a gut pick."
LOSS vs Molly McCann
KO (spinning back elbow) R3 1:52 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Molly McCann 1 85 of 159 53% 99 of 174 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:30
Luana Carolina 0 64 of 132 48% 76 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Molly McCann 0 56 of 107 52% 61 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Luana Carolina 0 22 of 52 42% 23 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Molly McCann 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:05
Luana Carolina 0 26 of 51 50% 33 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Molly McCann 1 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Luana Carolina 0 16 of 29 55% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Molly McCann 85 of 159 53% 52 of 118 28 of 36 5 of 5 69 of 139 14 of 18 2 of 2
Luana Carolina 64 of 132 48% 26 of 88 33 of 39 5 of 5 47 of 113 17 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Molly McCann 56 of 107 52% 35 of 79 19 of 26 2 of 2 47 of 96 9 of 11 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 22 of 52 42% 6 of 32 13 of 17 3 of 3 16 of 46 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Molly McCann 15 of 30 50% 5 of 19 8 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 26 1 of 2 2 of 2
Luana Carolina 26 of 51 50% 13 of 37 12 of 13 1 of 1 16 of 40 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Molly McCann 14 of 22 63% 12 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 16 of 29 55% 7 of 19 8 of 9 1 of 1 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Angelo picks Molly McCann with a slight edge, citing her cleaner boxing and willingness to grapple to steal rounds. He notes that Luana Carolina has 88% takedown defense but was taken down in her last two fights and still won. He says it's a razor-thin fight and he's siding with the bookies who have Molly as a slight favorite.

"i'm siding with the bookies here and i'm just gonna give a tiny tiny slight edge to molly"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady picks Luana Carolina to win a close split decision. He notes Carolina has good takedown defense (88%) and a height and reach advantage. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Carolina will land more strikes. Brady acknowledges Molly McCann has the home crowd and walks forward, but he sees Carolina improving and pulling off the upset.

"give me carolina for the upset give me carolina to win a very close probably greasy split decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Cody picks McCann but is hesitant, citing home-cage advantage and judging bias. He thinks McCann's volume and pressure will be key, but acknowledges Carolina's reach and size. He says the pick is McCann by decision, but he's not confident.

"the pick would be my mccann by decision ever so slightly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Daniel Levi picks Molly McCann, citing the hometown advantage at the O2 Arena. He believes McCann's volume boxing, opportunistic takedowns, and toughness will overwhelm Luana Carolina, who has a reach advantage but may struggle with McCann's pressure. Levi expects a close decision that will favor McCann due to the crowd and judges. He also notes that McCann's heart and willpower are key factors.

"close fight favors uh molly mccann um but i think that molly mccann might turn up on luana carolina maybe even get 130 27 in there too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

McCann's forward pressure and hard-nosed striking should overwhelm Carolina, who isn't that good. Carolina's win over Godinez was overrated due to Godinez taking the fight on short notice up a weight class. McCann is more fit for flyweight and should use her speed to close distance and land strikes. The hometown crowd will help sway judges. I'm picking McCann via decision, but a sprinkle on McCann by submission at +1100 is worth it given her activity off her back.

McCann via decision; McCann by submission (+1100)
"I expect her at her optimal level to go out there and outstrike Luana Carolina."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul picks Carolina on paper but is wary of British judging. He thinks Carolina's reach and striking could give McCann trouble, but the crowd and potential robbery scare him. He says he'll pick Carolina for the show but likely won't bet.

"i'll pick carolina for the purposes of this show but uh i don't think i'm gonna get money my money in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The Guru picks Luana Carolina as an upset, citing her size, reach advantage (7 inches), youth, and recent win over Lupita Godinez. He believes Molly McCann is overrated due to her association with Paddy Pimblett and the Scouse crew. He thinks Carolina can stuff takedowns and outgrapple McCann, and predicts a split decision win despite potential UK judging bias.

split decision
"i'm gonna go luanna carolina here... she's longer, she's got good kicks, she was able to stuff takedowns"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Big Brady initially leaned toward Carolina but changed his pick after learning she broke her spine months ago and couldn't move for a month. He thinks Lipski has power and is motivated, while Carolina gets hit a lot. He predicts Lipski will win by third-round knockout, but admits the fight is volatile and he wouldn't bet it.

knockout, round 3
"I'm going to pick Lipski to win by third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel Levi picks Luana Carolina as a dog. He notes that Lipski has power but fades when pressured and has poor ground game. He thinks Carolina's volume and durability will be key as the fight goes longer. He acknowledges Lipski's knockout power but believes Carolina can edge a decision if she survives the early rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and says the line is appropriate.

"i'll take the dog as well i'll go with uh carolina"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The MMA Guru picks Lipski (da Silva) due to her experience advantage. He notes Luana Carolina has decent skills and long reach but hasn't fought the same level of opponents. He predicts Lipski narrowly out-strikes Carolina for a decision win, 30-27.

Lipski by decision 30-27
"I'm gonna be going with Lipsky she gets the job done narrowly out striking Lou Anna Karolina in the free rounds for a decision"