UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rafael Fiziev
4.71 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
4.84 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marc Diakiese
2.54 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.64 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
3.29 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Rafael Fiziev - Fight History
SCHED vs Manuel Torres
LOSS vs Maurício Ruffy
KO R2 4:30 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 0 36 of 66 54% 37 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 55 of 88 62% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 0 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Maurício Ruffy 0 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 37 of 60 61% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 36 of 66 54% 9 of 31 15 of 19 12 of 16 34 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 55 of 88 62% 45 of 77 4 of 4 6 of 7 42 of 66 1 of 2 12 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 16 of 33 48% 2 of 12 7 of 11 7 of 10 14 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 18 of 28 64% 13 of 22 2 of 2 3 of 4 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Ruffy 20 of 33 60% 7 of 19 8 of 8 5 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 37 of 60 61% 32 of 55 2 of 2 3 of 3 24 of 38 1 of 2 12 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-122), Fiziev (+102)

Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as lightweights in need of a big win lock ‘em up. “Ataman” Fiziev (13-4, 7-4 UFC) may have struggled having to face Justin Gaethje twice in the span of about two years, but he righted the ship last June by taking out Ignacio Bahamondes. On the other side of the equation, Fighting Nerds staple Ruffy (12-2, 3-1 UFC) saw his mighty win streak come to a crashing halt last year when the co-headliner Benoit St. Denis wrangled and tapped him. This ranked lightweight contest where only man will remain in the top 10 when the dust settles will be officiated by referee Dan Movahedi. The heavy hitters touch gloves before handling their business.
Ruffy in a wide stance holds the center of the cage, avoiding a sweeping low kick while keeping his lead hand dangerously low. The head movement allows Ruffy to dodge a sudden head kick, and he answers with a quick leg kick. Fiziev slowly works his way forward, cutting off the cage and darting in behind a single left hand. Ruffy tosses out another kick, and Fiziev drills him with one that is far heavier. Fiziev ducks away from a tie-up attempt and goes low with another hard kick. Ruffy is not responding well to the calf kicks from the Tiger Muay Thai striking instructor, and Fiziev pressures him all the way to the wall to force a clinch. Ruffy turns him around, and Fiziev is able to escape out the side and nail the body with a kick. Ruffy offers a spinning elbow that is not accurate, and Fiziev walks him down without fear of reprisal.
Ruffy steps in to strike, and he gets caught with a pair of punches and a surprise head kick. Fiziev keeps Ruffy on the back foot, whipping him with kicks to remain pinned to the wall. Ruffy chains a low kick into a step-in knee, and Fiziev barely dodges in time. Both men go to the body, with tit-for-tat powerful single striking exchanges. Ruffy largely throws one at a time, while Fiziev walks through them and fires of his own combos. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 2
The athletes meet in the middle, with Fiziev starting off with strong body kicks. Ruffy replies with a solid right hand to back him off, and he spins with a back kick that Fiziev evades in time. Fiziev kicks low and then to the ribs, and he ducks under a sweeping left hand. Ruffy sneaks in a right hand over the top, and he partially checks a low kick. Fiziev rushes in with a left hook, and he keeps his opponent skirting on the back wall. They trade punches, with Fiziev taking a low kick on the way out that he does not defend well. Ruffy prods out a few jabs and is met with a hard body kick, and he winds up with a huge right hand that Fiziev takes flush.
Fiziev spins with a wheel kick and bounces off, and he resets without Ruffy taking advantage of it. Fiziev kicks at the front calf, and is answered with one from his opponent. Fiziev digs a right to the midsection, and then ducks in to go left to the liver. Ruffy retreats, and he takes low kicks on both sides. Ruffy reaches out with a right, and he bats Fiziev upside the head with a standing back fist. Fiziev walks Fiziev down and boots him in the liver again, and he gets backed off with a straight jab but is right in front of Ruffy. Ruffy measures his man and blasts Fiziev in the face with a right hand down the pipe, and Fiziev goes squirrely and on ice skates trips around the cage barely able to stay upright. Movahedi thinks to step in, but allows them to keep fighting. Ruffy does not go wild, instead picking his shots and methodically clobbering Fiziev with ground strikes. Fiziev still has his head on a swivel, and he sways and moves so that he can work his way back to his feet, but after several more blistering right hands, he is in a bad way as his balance has completely abandoned him.
Ruffy is able to bully Fiziev down to the ground again, partly due to Fiziev clinging to consciousness with figurative stars over his head like a "Street Fighter" character, and he unloads with a brief but final, concussive bombardment of punches until Movahedi does intervene.
This is a huge triumph for Ruffy, earning easily the biggest win of his career by putting away a renowned muay thai striker and trainer.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Rafael Fiziev R2 4:30 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.

minus 115 seems like solid value
"Raphael Faziv is the pick and minus 115 given their resumes honestly seems like solid value here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady slightly leans toward Maurício Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.

"I'm going to ever so slightly lean with Mauricio Hufi to win a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.

"Phys's he's got more volume by the numbers, but not like a runaway amount. The difference is if you want to go punch for punch with Raphael Phys, he lands eyecatching stuff, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Connor is surprised Fiziev is the underdog and notes the line is moving.
"I have to pick Fiziev. It's just, yeah, totally. There's a well fighting a superior technician who is super fast and who's only real weakness is a sort of like loss of cohesion late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.

"I took Mauricio Hui at plus 107 odds. I put one unit on it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.

"I got Rua in this one, boys. I got Rua via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.

Fiziev by knockout round 2 or 3
"There it is. Raphael Fizz by knockout round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.

"I think Faze can hang with this guy on the feet. Ruffy if he wins will win like big huge exciting kind of moments but veteran savvy sneak in a takedown round and kind of just scrape by on probably …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with FizzV, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Zane notes that Fiziev was the underdog but the line is quickly shifting.
"I think that Fiziev will crowd him. He's just the more technical striker and the guys that have beat him are really, you know, it's Justin Gaethje who could take a war to him and then a leg injury against …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 62 of 113 54% 87 of 141 4 of 4 100% 0 0 1:43
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 50 of 147 34% 62 of 165 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 17 of 25 68% 17 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 28 53% 28 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:55
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 20 of 44 45% 23 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 30 of 60 50% 42 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:48
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 17 of 57 29% 26 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 62 of 113 54% 31 of 72 25 of 34 6 of 7 52 of 96 5 of 7 5 of 10
Ignacio Bahamondes 50 of 147 34% 23 of 108 13 of 17 14 of 22 47 of 139 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 17 of 25 68% 4 of 10 9 of 10 4 of 5 17 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ignacio Bahamondes 13 of 46 28% 2 of 26 3 of 5 8 of 15 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 28 53% 8 of 20 6 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 24 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ignacio Bahamondes 20 of 44 45% 7 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 5 19 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 30 of 60 50% 19 of 42 10 of 17 1 of 1 22 of 47 4 of 5 4 of 8
Ignacio Bahamondes 17 of 57 29% 14 of 52 1 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, striking, and multiple ways to win. He acknowledges that Fiziev is the better striker but thinks Bahamondes is on a run and has more finishing options. He notes that Fiziev may have slowed down after injuries and tough fights. He recommends exposure to both in multiple lineups.

Recommends exposure to both fighters in multiple lineups.
"Ignasio Bahamandez is going to be my pick. You probably want exposure to both of them if you have multiple lineups."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev despite him being on a three-fight skid, noting that Fiziev's losses came against top competition (Gamrot, Gaethje twice) and one was on short notice. He believes Bahamondes is taking a step up in competition and that Fiziev's speed, power, and movement will cause problems early. Brady acknowledges Fiziev's cardio issues but thinks the fight goes to decision and that hometown judges will favor Fiziev in a close fight. He predicts a greasy, possibly controversial decision win for Fiziev.

fight goes the distance, hometown decision
"I'm going to go with Phys here. I'm going to go Faze to get the job done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, agreeing with Zane that Bahamondes' reversion to pocket fighting against Turner is a bad sign against Fiziev. He notes that Bahamondes has lost to short, explosive strikers before and that Fiziev is a much more polished striker than Bahamondes' recent opponents. He believes Fiziev's technical edge and the fact that Bahamondes hasn't proven his new style against a serious range striker make Fiziev the clear pick.

"I have to pick Fiziv here coming off that gage fight. I just think, you know, he looked good. He looked great in that fight, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The host is surprised Bahamondes is the slight favorite. He thinks Fiziev may have handpicked his opponent to perform in front of his hometown crowd. He expects Fiziev's speed advantage and wrestling to thwart Bahamondes' distance striking, leading to a big shot or control time for a decision win.

"Very surprised that Bahamundes finds himself as the slight favorite here cuz this is a spot where Fiziev was maybe able to handpick his opponent so that he can perform form in front of his hometown crowd. I think his …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his range and improved distance management. He believes Fiziev's size disadvantage and recent war with Justin Gaethje will be factors. He expects Bahamondes to pick Fiziev apart as the fight goes on, predicting a third-round finish.

Bahamondes wins by TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Ignario Bahamandez over Ra Rafael Fizzv. I think the range and all of that is just going to be a bit much for Fizzv."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, noting that Fiziev looked great in his return against Gaethje despite losing, and that Bahamondes has struggled against shorter, better range strikers like Ludovic Klein and John McDessie. He points out that Bahamondes' instinct to sit in the pocket and trade hooks plays into Fiziev's strengths, and that Bahamondes' new rangy style hasn't been tested against a serious striker. He believes Fiziev's technical advantage will be decisive even if he tires.

"I'm totally taking Fiziv as well. I just wanted to raise the point that Fiziv with his own new fondness for fighting like off the back foot and from kicking range might once again run into some hiccups..."
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 1 72 of 134 53% 98 of 163 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:32
Rafael Fiziev 0 68 of 119 57% 81 of 134 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 12 of 21 57% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Rafael Fiziev 0 21 of 32 65% 22 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
2 Justin Gaethje 1 21 of 52 40% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Rafael Fiziev 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 39 of 61 63% 47 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Rafael Fiziev 0 30 of 47 63% 42 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 72 of 134 53% 56 of 117 9 of 9 7 of 8 41 of 92 26 of 34 5 of 8
Rafael Fiziev 68 of 119 57% 20 of 61 43 of 52 5 of 6 49 of 100 14 of 14 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 12 of 21 57% 7 of 15 1 of 1 4 of 5 9 of 15 3 of 6 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 21 of 32 65% 6 of 16 13 of 14 2 of 2 9 of 20 7 of 7 5 of 5
2 Justin Gaethje 21 of 52 40% 16 of 47 4 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 39 5 of 5 5 of 8
Rafael Fiziev 17 of 40 42% 6 of 24 9 of 13 2 of 3 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 39 of 61 63% 33 of 55 4 of 4 2 of 2 21 of 38 18 of 23 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 30 of 47 63% 8 of 21 21 of 25 1 of 1 24 of 41 6 of 6 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Connor picks Gaethje because he has more faith in Gaethje's cardio and durability than Fiziev's coming off a knee injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev faded in their first fight and has not looked good since, while Gaethje's loss to Holloway was a stylistic nightmare that doesn't reflect his overall level. Connor believes Gaethje's jab and pressure will be too much for a rusty Fiziev.

Odds: Gaethje opened at -110, now +135; Fiziev opened at -110, now -163. Connor is surprised bettors are backing Fiziev.
"I'm just, I'm going to pick Gagey again, like I, yeah. He might go through the same process, but I can't have more faith in physives, uh, in physives cardio and his fitness coming off of a horrible injured, like …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev but is not confident due to intangibles like Gaethje's recent KO loss and Fiziev's knee injury layoff. He thinks Fiziev is the better striker and will land counters, but Gaethje could take over late if he pressures. He predicts Fiziev by KO, similar to his first fight prediction. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -155, indicating market correction.

Fiziev via KO; under 2.5 rounds at plus money
"I'm going to go with Rafael fiz here I'm not super confident about it but I will predict him to win the fight via KO the exact same prediction as I gave in the first iteration of this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Zane picks Gaethje, echoing Connor's reasoning about Fiziev's injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev's pacing has always been a problem and that he tends to gas in round three. Zane also points out that Fiziev's style of crashing into Gaethje plays into Gaethje's strengths in the clinch and pocket. He is surprised by the betting line moving toward Fiziev.

Odds: Gaethje opened at -110, now +135; Fiziev opened at -110, now -163. Zane is surprised bettors are backing Fiziev.
"I got to think Gagey should be the favorite, especially on a short note, it's coming off an injury. Like, I know, I don't understand why gamblers would be leaning on Fiziv here."
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
TKO (knee injury) R2 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 42 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 16 of 27 59% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 32 56% 4 of 14 12 of 16 2 of 2 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 16 of 40 40% 11 of 31 2 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 35 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 27 59% 4 of 11 10 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 12 of 34 35% 7 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.

Gamrot at current moneyline is great value
"the reality is physiov probably gonna win this fight he is gonna be my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.

"I'm gonna take physio to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.

Prefers live betting on Gamrot at plus money; mentions Gamrot's takedown ability and Fiziev's fatigue in later rounds.
"I'm leaning right now towards gamrod... I would much rather just hit this live a bigger plus money price tag on the two's gamron."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.

plus 130 underdog value; hopes line moves to plus 135
"I'm going to have to go with the plus 130 hopefully maybe even a plus 135 or a plus 40 later on in the week on gamr"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.

3 units at -136
"I like Fiziev in this spot... I think he's going to defend the takedowns and knock out Gamrot on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.

over 4.5 rounds
"give me the underdog shot on the Polish fighter here and Montage camera to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly to physive but um I mean I'm gonna wait for weigh-ins and and all of that it's not a fight that I feel like I need to get money on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going for Raphael physiov I just can't unsee it... I think physio is actually going to get a first or second round TKO and make a statement against gamrot"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 103 of 171 60% 106 of 174 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:05
Rafael Fiziev 0 97 of 169 57% 97 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 27 of 50 54% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 48 56% 29 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 32 of 49 65% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 53 of 87 60% 54 of 88 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Rafael Fiziev 0 38 of 70 54% 38 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 103 of 171 60% 81 of 142 14 of 15 8 of 14 84 of 147 19 of 24 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 97 of 169 57% 38 of 100 52 of 61 7 of 8 81 of 151 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 23 of 36 63% 11 of 21 7 of 8 5 of 7 20 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 27 of 50 54% 11 of 29 15 of 19 1 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 27 of 48 56% 22 of 41 3 of 3 2 of 4 23 of 44 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 32 of 49 65% 12 of 27 18 of 20 2 of 2 27 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 53 of 87 60% 48 of 80 4 of 4 1 of 3 41 of 70 12 of 17 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 38 of 70 54% 15 of 44 19 of 22 4 of 4 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-148), Gaethje (+124)

Round 1
It might not be the fight some were hoping to see, but if their first rumble was any indication, Gaethje (25-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. Fiziev (12-3, 6-3 UFC) 2 should be crackerjack material. Due to the late notice of this lightweight rematch, the two will be scheduled for three five-minute rounds instead of 5x5 like when Gaethje was planning on facing Dan Hooker. In a contest that could easily headline any Fight Night offering out there, these two strikers plan on picking right where they left off. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his hard hat to protect from any errant blows once these two mighty gladiators start swinging. There is a sign of respect before the anticipated brawl, as the men high-five in the center of the cage. Immediate chants of “USA” in support of Gaethje drown out any other audio in the building, and they die down as the fighters do not commit to much. When Gaethje lands his first full-throated strike, Fiziev tackles him to the canvas with a surprise takedown. Gaethje scrambles to get out of the precarious predicament, and Fiziev quickly tries for another level change. The man from Kazakhstan successfully puts Gaethje down again, where he winds up sitting in an inverted triangle choke position dropping down elbows. Gaethje calmly remains in the position until exploding out, and he resets in the center of the cage and takes a right hand over the top. Fiziev jabs his foe in the stomach and then comes up top with another, only for Gaethje to walk him down and uppercut him in the jaw. Gaethje wings a right hand that lands at the end of it, and it is one-and-done as he slowly creeps forward towards his adversary. Fiziev pushes his foe back with a jab to the chest and a leg kick, and his jab keeps Gaethje from engaging fully. Gaethje swings his way in, and Fiziev greets him with a knee and a tie-up. Fiziev rips another two knees to the body, and Gaethje strikes back and swings a right hand up top. Fiziev targets the body with a kick and stings him with a left hand, and he goes after another audible body kick. Gaethje closes in on him as if he wants to take the fight down, but Fiziev’s balance holds up as he knees Gaethje in the ribcage. Gaethje slashes with an elbow up close and forces a break, and he unloads a right hand square on Fiziev’s eye socket. Fiziev kicks, and he recoils it awkwardly. Gaethje shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he catches Fiziev with a pair of punches. Gaethje goes wide with a kick, and Fiziev sneaks in a left right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get back to it, and Gaethje leads the dance with two inaccurate hooks. Gaethje ducks and lashes out with a right and a left, staying in Fiziev’s face until Fiziev partially lands a groin kick. Herzog calls time, and Gaethje takes a little more than 15 seconds before he’s good to go again. Fiziev lunges with a left hand, and his right that follows scores effectively. Gaethje dings him with two hooks, and he absorbs a leg kick before he can back out. “The Highlight” come up short on most of his swings, but he does clip the striking coach with a left hook. Fiziev considers a takedown, bailing on it and taking a few punches on the way out. Fiziev lands a couple in the pocket, but he wants to get out of the brawl and into his preferred technical range. Fiziev looses a body kick and a left to the ribs, and he waves Fiziev on for more as he walks him down. Gaethje slips and comes up top with a vicious overhand right, and he absorbs a body kick and has a head kick skim his dome. Gaethje shakes it off, asks for more and puts his hands on Fiziev’s face. Fiziev misses with a massive right hand, and he kicks low and is checked. Fiziev steps in with a knee to the torso, and Gaethje gives him a clean uppercut to the body and a right hand to break up the brief clinch. Gaethje intercepts his foe with a short left, and he ducks into an uppercut. Fiziev times a perfect knee when Gaethje ducks, and Gaethje slips a few punches and blasts Fiziev with a brutal uppercut that knocks him clean off his feet. Gaethje pounces to try to finish the job, smothering Fiziev when Fiziev turns to his knees and starts beating on his side. Fiziev grits his teeth and works to his feet, but Gaethje drills him with a right hand on the way. Fiziev swings a head kick that bangs into the raised guard, and he leans back to watch a Gaethje head kick pass him by. The tense, exciting round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 3
There is a final high-five to open the final stanza, and Gaethje is quick to engage and swat his left hand. Gaethje looks for his uppercut, and it just grazes the beard. Fiziev backs off to unload a spinning wheel kick that bangs into Gaethje’s chin, and Gaethje wipes his nose and paws out a left hand. Fiziev chops at the lead leg, and Gaethje unloads three successive uppercut right hands that catch Fiziev cleanly. Fiziev stands firm in the pocket and cracks Gaethje with a left hand, and Gaethje waves him on. Fiziev whips kick after kick to the body, with Gaethje calling him on every time. Fiziev kicks him upside the head, and Gaethje drills him with an uppercut on the way out. Gaethje trips and stumbles but gathers himself, tying Fiziev up and clipping him with a right hand. Fiziev blasts him with punches and knees to the body, while Gaethje punches him in the head time and time again. One fierce right hand from Gaethje lumps up Fiziev’s left eye in a hurry, and the two get in the clinch and practiced muay thai with ferocious knees. Gaethje breaks and swings a sneaky head kick up top, catching Fiziev in the side of the head leaned over. Gaethje pushes his foe against the wall and delivers three crisp uppercuts on the jaw, and he takes a step back and slips. Gaethje pours it on with power punches, and he uppercuts Fiziev a few more times when they are tied up. Fiziev knees Gaethje in the belly any time they clinch, and Gaethje scores the right hand frequently when breaking. Gaethje strings a jab and an uppercut into a takedown effort, where he pushes Fiziev to the wire but does not ground him. Gaethje imposes his pressure and works the body, and Fiziev knees him back up close. When Fiziev tries to escape, Gaethje catches him on the way out. Fiziev sits on two punches and a high kick, and Gaethje laughs it off and kicks Fiziev in the face. Gaethje unloads a swarm of wild hooks, rocking Fiziev and hurting him badly. Fiziev steels himself and knees Gaethje, and the horn sounds to conclude the dramatic lightweight tilt. What a fight, living up to the hype about as much as it can.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Rafael Fiziev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo is confident in Fiziev because he is the most technical striker in the division and Gaethje struggles with technical strikers. He notes Fiziev has phenomenal takedown defense and has defended takedowns from elite grapplers. He thinks Gaethje's power is always a threat but Fiziev should outclass him on the feet.

"I think physique wins this fight I think he's uh someone of an easy pick here because stylistically Justin gagey struggles with technical Strikers."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Fiziev, citing his technical striking and youth. He questions Gaethje's durability due to accumulated damage and notes Gaethje looked tired in the Oliveira fight. He believes Fiziev can knock Gaethje out, predicting a second-round KO. He expects a war but trusts Fiziev's cardio and skills.

"I like physia by knockout I think he's Gonna Knock Out Just engage you at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's accumulated damage and declining durability. He notes Gaethje's reckless style leaves him open to counters, and Fiziev's technical striking and ability to intercept shots will be key. He mentions Gaethje's wrestling is an option but he chooses not to use it. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees Fiziev as the cleaner striker. He has no strong prop lean but says the pick is Fiziev.

"I will go with Raphael physique don't have a prop on it as much as I would like to say physique by decision... the pick would be fizzy"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev because Gaethje has become a back-foot counter puncher who no longer pressures. He notes that Gaethje's new approach makes him vulnerable to fighters who can draw out his counters and come back with combinations, as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier did. Fiziev is a fast, technical striker with good body work and defensive responsibility. Connor thinks Fiziev's ability to slip and counter will be key, and that Gaethje's lack of subtle adjustments will hurt him. He also notes that Fiziev's kicking game and creativity will give Gaethje trouble.

Gaethje opened +235, currently +187; Fiziev opened -275, currently -232
"I think physique is a smart enough fighter to put a lot of bodywork in even if he just does his normal amount, it will take its toll."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Jacob is a big fan of Fiziev and thinks he is the best striker in the UFC regardless of weight class. He notes Fiziev knocked out his former striking coach Brad Riddell. He thinks Fiziev will expose Gaethje's striking as high school level with precise counters. He expects a dominant win.

"I think he's the best striker in the UFC currently regardless of weight class he's going to show it off Saturday and get a dominant win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a technical Muay Thai striker with good defense and cardio, while Gaethje is a brawler who may be slowing down at 34. Fiziev's technical advantage should allow him to counter Gaethje's wild hooks and leg kicks, leading to a knockout. Gaethje's durability is a concern, and Fiziev is the younger, hungrier fighter.

"I think the technical advantages that physiev has in this matchup is going to open up a tremendous amount of knockout opportunities for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, picking Fiziev as the better striker. He notes Fiziev's takedown defense was impressive against dos Anjos, and Gaethje is unlikely to wrestle. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and volume make him live, but thinks Fiziev's technical edge wins out. He says minus 225 is about right and he won't bet it, but Fiziev is the pick.

"I'm picking physiv I think he's the better overall Striker... minus 225 I think the books have this vote right like gaichi's 100 live"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to win by TKO, calling it a terrible matchup for Gaethje. He notes Fiziev is a kickboxer who doesn't have to worry about takedowns, allowing him to focus on striking. Gaethje's weaknesses include leg kicks, body shots, and a high guard that leaves his body open. Fiziev has the best body shots in the division and will chop the legs, rip the body, and eventually land a body-head combo for a KO. He also mentions Gaethje's accumulated damage and recent KO loss as factors.

Fiziev wins by TKO (body-head combo)
"terrible matchup for Gucci I'm going with physiev by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane also picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's increasing unwillingness to pressure. He notes that Gaethje has struggled against consistent technical strikers who are not easily breakable, like Poirier and Alvarez. Fiziev is a fast, powerful kicker who can work at range and in the pocket. Zane thinks Fiziev's defense and combination punching will be effective, and that Gaethje's habit of overcommitting on counters will leave him off-balance. He also mentions that Fiziev's body work could slow Gaethje down, and that this is a good matchup for Fiziev at the right time.

Gaethje opened +235, currently +187; Fiziev opened -275, currently -232
"The increasing unwillingness to pressure from Gachie is a major concern."
KO (punches) R5 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 54 of 110 49% 90 of 162 2 of 16 12% 0 0 6:13
Rafael dos Anjos 1 64 of 159 40% 92 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 26 34% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 41 34% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 19 of 36 52% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 22 40% 13 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
4 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 41 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:48
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 27 44% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
5 Rafael Fiziev 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 54 of 110 49% 31 of 80 12 of 14 11 of 16 50 of 106 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 64 of 159 40% 32 of 102 27 of 52 5 of 5 62 of 155 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 26 34% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 41 34% 8 of 26 6 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 19 of 36 52% 10 of 26 7 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 44 38% 6 of 27 9 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 38 44% 7 of 26 8 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 23 65% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 27 44% 7 of 17 4 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Rafael Fiziev 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 9 44% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Already has a moneyline bet on Rafael dos Anjos at +170.
"I like rafael dosanos I already got a money line bet on him at plus 170."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

"i'm gonna pick rda here to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"gotta go with raphael physique so when you're looking at the odds of course it doesn't look you know great like uh you got minus 225 and raphael's eve versus more of a proven commodity in rafael sanyos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

"I have a bet on Johnson and I understand the value on our day like if you're seeing perceived value on RDA I'd absolutely agree with you which is why I'm not touching that fight but I still do think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"i just think it's uh the price is a little bit too wide and it's continuing to grow so it's like i feel like by the time we get to fight time i'm gonna probably end up with an rda …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

4-1 decision
"I've got to side with Rafael Fiziev here."
WIN vs Brad Riddell
KO (spinning wheel kick) R3 2:20 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 59 of 115 51% 62 of 118 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:14
Brad Riddell 0 66 of 123 53% 66 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Riddell 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 22 of 50 44% 23 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Riddell 0 30 of 59 50% 30 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 24 66% 18 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
Brad Riddell 0 17 of 29 58% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 59 of 115 51% 23 of 72 20 of 26 16 of 17 59 of 114 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 66 of 123 53% 36 of 78 22 of 30 8 of 15 64 of 121 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 21 of 41 51% 9 of 28 7 of 8 5 of 5 21 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 19 of 35 54% 10 of 18 7 of 10 2 of 7 19 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 22 of 50 44% 8 of 30 8 of 13 6 of 7 22 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 30 of 59 50% 14 of 38 13 of 17 3 of 4 28 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 16 of 24 66% 6 of 14 5 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Riddell 17 of 29 58% 12 of 22 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev, citing his volume and diversity of strikes. He notes Riddell has more power but waits for the perfect shot, while Fiziev will already have landed kicks. Angelo is nervous about Riddell's power but sticks with Fiziev.

Inside the distance/decision no action spot (not specified which side)
"i'm going to stick with rafael fizzav i think his volume and his diversity and strikes will be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Big Brady picks Brad Riddell as a slight underdog, but with low confidence. He notes the fight is very even and should be a pick'em. He highlights Fiziev's tendency to slow down in later rounds, while Riddell maintains his pace. He also notes Riddell may mix in takedowns, though Fiziev has 100% takedown defense. Brady thinks Riddell's volume and cardio advantage could be key, but acknowledges Fiziev lands harder shots. He sides with Riddell slightly.

"i'm going to side with brad riddell here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Cody also picks Riddell, emphasizing his volume and technical striking. He points out that Fiziev's power shots led to him gassing out against Bobby Green, while Riddell has superior cardio and accuracy. Cody believes Riddell's takedown defense has improved and that he can win by outworking Fiziev, especially in the later rounds.

"gotta go with my guy brad riddell for sure and when we're talking about volume over power i think that's a great example"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Daniel Levi picks Rafael Fiziev by a close decision, acknowledging that Fiziev is explosive and accurate in the first two rounds but tends to slow down and get hit more in the third. He notes that Fiziev's output remains high throughout, but his defense deteriorates. He expects Fiziev to win the first two rounds and edge out a decision, though he admits it could go either way.

"I'm going to say rafael fazeev just barely gets past brad riddell"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Jacob picks Fiziev, noting his wild style may impress judges. He thinks Fiziev's aggression and volume will sway scorecards in a close fight. Jacob acknowledges it's a coin toss but leans Fiziev.

"i'm going to pick physio because he gets wild because i think that this this this fight is going to be so back and forth"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Brad Riddell

I like Riddell. He is the better boxer with better cardio and tends to get stronger as fights go on. Fiziev starts fast but slows down, and he has lost round three in every fight. Riddell will punish Fiziev's naked kicks and land cleaner shots. I expect Riddell to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 190 is solid. A round three finish is also live.

Riddell by decision +190, Riddell round 3 +1700
"i like rideau redoubt decision is the spot but uh i do think the round three is live here as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Paul picks Riddell, citing his volume and technical kickboxing. He notes that Fiziev was out-struck by Bobby Green and faded in the third round, while Riddell has shown cardio and takedown defense improvements. Paul believes Riddell's familiarity with Fiziev from training together gives him an edge, and that Riddell can win by outworking him over three rounds.

"i gotta go with brad riddell again here i mean he's not failed me so far he's been you know one of these guys ever since he's come to the ufc i've backed him in every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Brad Riddell

The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Fiziev to win the first round with kicks and takedown defense, but Riddell's body shots and takedown pressure will wear Fiziev down. Riddell will take over in the second and third, landing heavy body hooks and knees, winning the last two rounds.

"29-28 decision and i think this is going to be based on cardio again"
Marc Diakiese - Fight History
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 42 54% 67 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:27
Kauê Fernandes 0 13 of 32 40% 65 of 92 3 of 8 37% 0 1 8:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 13 46% 17 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 10 40% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:33
2 Marc Diakiese 0 10 of 19 52% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Kauê Fernandes 0 4 of 12 33% 16 of 29 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Marc Diakiese 0 7 of 10 70% 30 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Kauê Fernandes 0 5 of 10 50% 35 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 23 of 42 54% 6 of 20 8 of 13 9 of 9 21 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 13 of 32 40% 11 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 1 7 of 18 2 of 4 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 6 of 13 46% 2 of 6 2 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 10 40% 3 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Marc Diakiese 10 of 19 52% 2 of 9 5 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 4 of 12 33% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 7 of 10 70% 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kauê Fernandes 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Fernandes despite Diakiese's experience and competition edge. He believes Fernandes can defend takedowns and will stay in Diakiese's face with striking, causing trouble. He notes Diakiese has become more of a wrestler lately, but his wrestling is decent at best, while Fernandes has solid takedown defense. Angelo placed a small underdog bet on Fernandes at +145, noting the line is tightening.

small underdog bet at +145, line tightening to +116
"I am going to lean Fernandez here obviously Marc Dy has the uh experience level the competition Edge heavily favors him but I like Fernandez I think he can defend the takedowns I think he's going to come forward I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Marc Diakiese to win by decision. He notes that Diakiese has evolved into a wrestler, with 11 takedowns against Slava Borshchev and 8 against Damir Hadzovic. He trusts Diakiese's cardio and fight IQ, and believes Fernandes is dangerous early but fades. He also mentions that Diakiese's submission loss to Joel Alvarez was due to a head clash.

"I like di Casey here um and D Casey's fought the much better competition... give me Mark D Casey to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his UFC experience, improved cardio, and well-rounded game. He notes that Diakiese has evolved from a dynamic striker to a more complete fighter who uses offensive wrestling. Levi acknowledges Diakiese's inconsistency and tendency to flake, but believes this is a step down in competition. He sees Fernandes as dangerous early with his BJJ and head kicks, but expects Diakiese's cardio and wrestling to take over in later rounds. Levi is leaning Diakiese but not with high confidence.

Diakiese wins by decision, Diakiese wins inside distance
"I'll pick Diakiese with the experience... but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if this guy flakes out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

James acknowledges that Diakiese deserves to be a favorite but sees too much danger on the Fernandes side due to his unproven UFC debut and potential cardio issues. He notes that Diakiese has been submitted multiple times and that Fernandes has speed and power, but he also points out that Fernandes gassed in his last extended fight. Ultimately, James is not betting this fight because he cannot trust either fighter, but he leans Diakiese as the rightful favorite.

"I guess I'm picking mark in this fight because I think he should be a favorite but there's too much danger Factor on the Fernandez side."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Diakiese has a solid submission defense to thwart Fernandes' offensive attacks on the mat. As the fight goes into deeper waters, Diakiese will find it easier to control Fernandes on the mat and do good work from top position. Diakiese is good enough in the striking realm to deal with Fernandes' early threat, and will likely drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision win.

surprised line is dropping; thinks -130 is a gift
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is dropping as much as it has... I think that that's a solid spot, I think that's a gift of a spot to take the Casey here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese over Kauê Fernandes. He notes that Fernandes is a good regional fighter with finishing potential, but he gassed after the first round when facing adversity. Diakiese is tough to finish early, having only lost to Joel Alvarez due to a head clash. The Guru expects Diakiese to weather an early storm and then take over in the later rounds via grappling, predicting a third-round TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Mark Jai mainly because although KY Fernandez... he absolutely gassed after the first round... I'm going to go with Mark Jai via a third round TKO or finish by submission"
LOSS vs Joel Alvarez
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:26 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 0 20 of 46 43% 29 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:09
Marc Diakiese 0 42 of 75 56% 64 of 98 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Marc Diakiese 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Joel Alvarez 0 1 of 4 25% 9 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:55
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 13 84% 33 of 36 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 20 of 46 43% 8 of 25 6 of 11 6 of 10 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 42 of 75 56% 20 of 49 12 of 16 10 of 10 37 of 70 2 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 19 of 42 45% 7 of 22 6 of 11 6 of 9 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 31 of 62 50% 15 of 42 7 of 11 9 of 9 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joel Alvarez 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 13 84% 5 of 7 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joel Alvarez vs. Marc Diakiese
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-190), Diakiese (+160)

Round 1
Although this next lightweight pairing might be described as a potential brawl, neither Diakiese (16-6, 7-6 UFC) nor Alvarez (19-3, 4-2 UFC) make their bread off of being knockout artists. Instead, their grappling has been arguably their best attributes, so this could turn into a wild affair that ends up going everywhere. Keeping tabs on this fight will be referee Dan Movahedi, one that opens up with a fist bump from the 155ers. The two are amped up to engage, and the first strike offered is a low kick from Diakiese. When he misses, he resets and reaches his target with a second. Alvarez brings up a high knee when Diakiese comes at him, and he fires off a kick to the knee sleeve of his opponent and catches the Brit with a right hand. Diakiese goes down low with a kick, and he uses his other leg to kick the body. They crash together throwing fierce fists, and both catch the other with one punch and back off to take quick counts of their teeth. Diakiese chains a low kick into a spinning back kick, and Alvarez bounces off the cage wall and gets back to striking range. Alvarez springs into action with a calf kick and a right hand, and they measure one another with jabs to follow. Alvarez steps in with a knee, and Diakiese throws everything he has into a right hand that opens a cut on the cheek of his opponent. Diakiese spins with a back fist, and Alvarez ducks it and catches him with a right hand that staggers the mohawk-sporting fighter momentarily. Diakiese swings for the bleachers with a right hand, and Alvarez dodges it and absorbs a flush leg kick so he can counter with a head kick. Alvarez chambers and looses a hard leg kick, and he beats Diakiese to the punch with a check left hook as Diakiese winds up on a power punch. Alvarez pushes off with a front kick, and he gets wobbled when swinging too hard with a haymaker while Diakiese counters him. Diakiese lets him settle down and gives chase to line up a right hook and a spinning back kick, and Alvarez runs at him with two fists and a leg kick. Alvarez spins with a high kick, ducks a spinning back fist, takes Diakiese’s back and looks for a trip. Diakiese leans himself against the cage to keep himself upright, and Alvarez succeeds in tripping him out. Diakiese reverses him to end up on top, and he scores an elbow and a few body shots before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
The lightweights briefly tap their gloves together, but Diakiese is more interested in coming out firing. Alvarez pays close attention, and he watches Diakiese sail past him with a spinning wheel kick. When Diakiese gets his balance again, he changes levels and secures a takedown to put the Spaniard on his back. Alvarez scrambles to put himself close to the wall, and Diakiese is comfortable inside of the guard softening Alvarez up with short strikes. Alvarez looks to turn to the side or potentially set up something off his back, and Diakiese stays heavy and tightly pressed to his man to prevent anything from coming together. Diakiese embraces the grind, focusing more on position rather than offense. Alvarez decides to stop looking for some submission off his back, and he wall-walks to stand back up. Diakiese strips out his legs and puts him down to his back again. Alvarez uses upkicks to stop Diakiese from lowering himself down, and Diakiese shoots down low and gets turned around by the Spanish fighter. With “The Bonecrusher” turning to his knees, Alvarez opens up with punches to the side of the head. Alvarez is warned for strikes to the back of the head, and Diakiese turns to his back and suddenly explodes up to his feet. Alvarez races forward to attack, and his head bounces off Diakiese’s. Diakiese clutches the side of his head, signaling to Movahedi that he absorbed a foul. Movahedi tells them to fight on, and Alvarez unloads with several knees to the body and ferocious fists.
Diakiese desperately drops down to pursue a takedown, and Alvarez welcomes this as he follows Diakiese down and isolates the neck. “El Fenomeno” slides his arm beneath the chin and his other under the armpit to lock down a brabo choke, and he has it tight. Diakiese rolls to his back, and Alvarez moves to lower his full body weight down to complete the submission. With Diakiese still rocked by the head clash, he does not have the sense to fight the choke, and he taps out.
This is an unfortunate situation for Diakiese, as Movahedi missed the clash of heads with Alvarez’ forehead slamming into the side of Diakiese’s head behind the ear. As the official announcement is read, it is unclear if the result will be under review at this time. Diakiese is still wobbled from the foul when Movahedi raises Alvarez’ victorious arm, and he almost falls over and has to be caught by one of his cornermen so he does not crash and burn. The official result is a submission, but it might not remain as such should it get reviewed or appealed.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Marc Diakiese R2 4:26 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Angelo likes Joel Alvarez's length and reach advantage, and thinks he can win by sneaky submission off his back or catch Diakiese on the feet. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense but believes Diakiese's recent loss to an older Michael Johnson is a bad sign. He has a small moneyline bet but does not recommend tailing.

small moneyline bet placed; not recommended to tail
"I like Joel Alvarez to get the win I've got a small money line bet on him as well I wouldn't recommend tailing it because it is a bit sketchy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by first-round submission. He notes Alvarez is a dangerous grappler with 84% of wins by submission, but also has good striking as shown against Thiago Moises. He thinks Diakiese will shoot for a takedown and get caught. He mentions Alvarez may miss weight but that benefits him. He would not lay -190 but thinks Alvarez wins more often than not.

first round submission
"give me Alvarez to win this fight I'll say club and sub heard Steve Casey on the feet Dia Casey shoots in and gets his next match up in the very first round Alvarez first round submission for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Cody picked Alvarez earlier at -152, citing Diakiese's poor fight IQ and failure to wrestle against Michael Johnson. He thinks Alvarez's submission grappling and power will be too much. He notes the line has moved to -200 and feels the value is gone.

Alvarez submission at +125 (not taken)
"I backed uh Joel Alvarez earlier in the week at minus 152."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Daniel picks Joel Alvarez by submission, specifically a guillotine, because he does not trust Marc Diakiese to avoid diving into a submission. He notes Diakiese has been guillotined before and makes bonehead mistakes. He acknowledges Diakiese has the tools to win via takedowns and control, but believes Alvarez's opportunistic finishing ability and physicality will prevail. He points out that Alvarez has 0% takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. He has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200 due to the poor value.

Daniel predicts Alvarez wins via guillotine. He says he has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200. He mentions Alvarez has never won a decision.
"Joel probably keeps is zero percent takedown defense intact and wins via guillotine"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The host picks Joel Alvarez, citing his size, reach, aggression, and ability to inflict damage from any position. He believes Diakiese cracks under pressure and that Alvarez will finish him within 7.5 minutes. He notes Alvarez's dangerous bottom game with elbows and submissions.

finishes within 7.5 minutes
"giving Joelle Alvarez here and I think he finishes uh Mark D Casey honestly within seven and a half minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Alvarez, noting his power and submission threat. He thinks Diakiese's wrestling is overrated and that he will leave his neck exposed. He expects Alvarez to win by submission or decision, and suggests live betting if Diakiese controls the first round.

suggests live betting if Diakiese wins first round
"I would take Joel Alvarez I can see this being a boy a boring points decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, citing Marc Diakiese's poor performance against Michael Johnson. He praises Alvarez's win over Thiago Moises and his massive 77-inch reach in the lightweight division. The Guru notes Diakiese's tendency to get caught in guillotines when shooting takedowns, and predicts Alvarez will catch a guillotine after a takedown attempt. He also mentions Alvarez's layoff but believes he is entering his prime.

guillotine choke
"I'm gonna have to go Joe Alvarez here over Mark jacasian"
LOSS vs Michael Johnson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Johnson 0 83 of 181 45% 83 of 181 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Marc Diakiese 0 55 of 127 43% 55 of 127 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Johnson 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Marc Diakiese 0 23 of 38 60% 23 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Johnson 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Johnson 0 41 of 79 51% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Marc Diakiese 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Johnson 83 of 181 45% 37 of 116 37 of 55 9 of 10 79 of 171 3 of 7 1 of 3
Marc Diakiese 55 of 127 43% 21 of 80 24 of 31 10 of 16 52 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Johnson 12 of 41 29% 5 of 29 5 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 2
Marc Diakiese 23 of 38 60% 6 of 16 9 of 14 8 of 8 22 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Johnson 30 of 61 49% 14 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 4 30 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 11 of 40 27% 5 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Johnson 41 of 79 51% 18 of 48 19 of 27 4 of 4 38 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 1
Marc Diakiese 21 of 49 42% 10 of 35 10 of 11 1 of 3 19 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.

Expects decision win for Diakiese
"I do think Mark's forward pressure the volume now the takedown threat I think he's going to get this win but I think it's going to be a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.

Diakiese wins by decision
"give me Mark Dia Casey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks
"the pick is DK CD Casey by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.

"This is the guy where it's like, I'm not a wrestler. This guy is so breakable in that phase. I'm going to go in there and play my C game. And it's going to crush him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.

"I'll picture Casey but I'm not really interested in laying this price on him because Michael Johnson actually is a good fighter it's just can I trust Michael Johnson and no I can't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.

Diakiese by decision; parlay piece
"I do like Mark D Casey here I'd like him to win by decision if you can get some plus money on that probably worth the stab"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

over 2.5 takedowns for Diakiese on PrizePicks; parlay with RDA
"I like Dia KC to win uh I I parlay Dia Casey with DOs Angels minus 152 um earlier on today for a little bit of skrilla"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.

Diakiese by decision (30-27)
"I'm going with Mark jacasi here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.

"Jacuzzi is just such a beast. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good technical wrestler. At some point, even if Johnson is winning jacuzzi could just grab him and rip him off his feet."
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 13 of 32 40% 78 of 111 8 of 11 72% 0 0 13:35
Damir Hadžović 0 5 of 10 50% 20 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 2 of 3 66% 23 of 29 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:45
Damir Hadžović 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc Diakiese 0 8 of 19 42% 19 of 34 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:17
Damir Hadžović 0 2 of 5 40% 10 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marc Diakiese 0 3 of 10 30% 36 of 48 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:33
Damir Hadžović 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 13 of 32 40% 8 of 25 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 25 2 of 2 4 of 5
Damir Hadžović 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Damir Hadžović 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 8 of 19 42% 6 of 16 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 3
Damir Hadžović 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 3 of 10 30% 1 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Damir Hadžović 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, noting he is the far better striker and coming off an impressive grappling win. He highlights Diakiese's power, leg kicks, and durability, while Hadžović is an okay striker with wins over fighters no longer in the UFC. He loves a Diakiese and Nathaniel Wood parlay.

parlay with Nathaniel Wood
"i love a mark de casey nathaniel wood parlay so i'm probably gonna smash those two together"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady picks Marc Diakiese to win by decision. He notes Diakiese has a clear path: take down Hadžović, who has terrible takedown defense (37%) and suspect cardio. Diakiese showed he can wrestle for 15 minutes in his last fight. He expects Diakiese to control the fight with takedowns and win a decision.

Diakiese by decision
"i like dkc here quite a bit and i'd like to casey to once again win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He notes Hadžović's only path is a puncher's chance, but Diakiese has a great chin. Cody thinks Diakiese will take Hadžović down at will and control the fight. He also likes Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"i got dia casey i think he can make this look really easy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his wrestling and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Diakiese has a good blast double and can find ways to win, as long as he doesn't get too flashy. Levi also mentions that both fighters have calf kicks, but Diakiese's wrestling should be the difference. He hasn't forgiven Hadžović for a previous loss and sees limited improvement.

"i think he can come out here and grind out damir hadzovich so for that reason i'm picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Diakiese is a safe spot. He can grapple or strike with Hadžović, who is a one-dimensional brawler. Diakiese should take a smart approach, get takedowns, and win. Even on the feet, he can hold his own.

"I like the Casey here I think he's a pretty safe spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul picks Marc Diakiese, citing his wrestling improvements and takedown ability. He notes Hadžović has poor takedown defense and has been taken down many times. Paul thinks Diakiese will stick to a wrestling game plan and easily get takedowns. He also likes Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Diakiese over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"dear casey i think wins and i think it's wrestling he's gonna lean on again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese to win by KO. He notes Diakiese has shown grappling improvements and is still a good fighter. Hadžović is simple and fundamental on the feet, lacking finishing ability against decent opponents. Diakiese's unorthodox style will give him trouble, and he expects a KO statement.

KO
"i'm going to call mark jacoby getting a good ko and getting a statement made on this card"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 17 of 20 85% 40 of 50 11 of 18 61% 0 0 12:24
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 12 of 21 57% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 4 of 4 100% 9 of 10 3 of 7 42% 0 0 3:55
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 5 of 11 45% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Marc Diakiese 0 9 of 11 81% 21 of 25 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:08
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 5 of 6 83% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marc Diakiese 0 4 of 5 80% 10 of 15 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:21
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 4 50% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 17 of 20 85% 6 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 12 4 of 6 5 of 5 8 of 9
Viacheslav Borshchev 12 of 21 57% 6 of 15 3 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 12 3 of 6 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 9 of 11 81% 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 6
Viacheslav Borshchev 5 of 6 83% 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Marc Diakiese 4 of 5 80% 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Angelo picks Viacheslav Borshchev, calling him the more technical striker. He notes that while Marc Diakiese has more power, Borshchev's kickboxing background and technical ability should control the fight. He mentions Borshchev needs to avoid Diakiese's leg kicks and power. He may throw a moneyline bet despite the 2-1 odds.

i may throw a money line bet on him two to one
"i like worship to win here but he definitely needs to avoid the leg kicks and avoid the power of mark dioxis"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Big Brady picks Viacheslav Borshchev to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes Borshchev's striking and volume, but is concerned about his takedown defense, as he gets taken down in every fight. However, he notes that Borshchev has an elite get-up game and can get back to his feet. He thinks Diakiese can make it competitive with takedowns, but Borshchev will win the striking exchanges.

Viacheslav Borshchev wins by decision
"I'll go borschev but I don't feel like overly confident about it... I'm going to take borah chef to win... by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Cody picks Borshchev, disagreeing with the line. He criticizes Diakiese's inconsistency and poor performances as a favorite. He likes Borshchev's pressure, power, and ability to get up from takedowns. He thinks Borshchev will overwhelm Diakiese and get a finish.

"i think borishev wins i just think it's going to be a very volatile fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Daniel Levi leans Viacheslav Borshchev, citing his superior boxing and striking. He notes Borshchev has defensive flaws on the ground but is training at Alpha Male to improve. He thinks Diakiese will get early takedowns but Borshchev will get back up and pull away on the feet. He is not betting the fight but picks Borshchev to win.

"I think borscht probably gets taken down early and if he can avoid getting submitted... he gets back up and starts to kind of pull away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The host slightly favors Diakiese, citing his overall MMA game, experience against better competition, and the threat of takedowns that could disrupt Borshchev's striking. He notes Borshchev's body shot power but thinks Diakiese's speed and wrestling could be key. He expects a decision win for Diakiese.

Diakiese by decision at +300
"i do favor him ever so slightly because i think he can put together a better 15-minute fight than we're going to see from borschev"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul leans Diakiese as an underdog, citing recency bias on Borshchev. He notes Diakiese's close fight with a talented kickboxer and thinks the price is too high on Borshchev. He sees Diakiese getting back on track but isn't confident.

"i'm leaning towards gia casey to get back on track here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

The MMA Guru picks Viacheslav Borshchev by late first-round TKO over Marc Diakiese. He believes Borshchev is better in the pocket and notes Diakiese's chin issues after being rocked by Rafael Alves. The Guru expects Diakiese to shoot for takedowns but Borshchev to work back up and land big shots, as he won't be as worried about the grappling threat as he was against Dakota Bush.

late first round tko
"i'm gonna go with via schlav borishev"
LOSS vs Rafael Alves
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:48 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Alves 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Marc Diakiese 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Alves 3 of 13 23% 0 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his leg kicks and body shots to tire out Alves, who has cardio issues. He notes that Alves is dangerous but has no takedowns in the UFC and tends to gas. Angelo believes if Diakiese stays composed and technical, he should win straightforwardly.

"i'm going with mark here after the year-long layoff i think the leg kicks will help sort of remove some of that alves power i think the body shots will speed up uh alvez's eventual gassing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Big Brady picks Rafael Alves as an upset, citing Alves' impressive UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he showed improved cardio and power. He notes Alves is dangerous everywhere: on the feet with knockout power and on the mat with a black belt in BJJ. Brady expects Alves to hurt Diakiese on the feet, then snatch a submission when Diakiese shoots for a takedown.

Alves by submission
"I'm actually here with the upset here i'm going to take rafael elvis to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Cody believes Diakiese will use his reach and footwork to stay outside and pick apart Alves, who is low-volume and explosive but fades. He notes Alves missed weight badly and is a 'weight bully' who struggles with cardio. He expects Diakiese to win a decision.

"i got dear casey here and it's early enough in the card that i probably will have them a little higher than i should"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his speed and athletic advantage. He believes Diakiese can win a decision if he minds his P's and Q's against the experienced Alves. Levi acknowledges Alves's power and guillotine threat but thinks Diakiese's superior athleticism will be the difference.

"give me march and casey to get it done"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Jacob is very confident in Marc Diakiese, calling him the real deal and predicting he will dominate. He mentions Diakiese's training with Khamzat Chimaev and his ability to use offensive wrestling if needed. Jacob thinks Alves is being fed to Diakiese as a winnable fight and expects a dominant performance.

"yeah mark's going to absolutely dominate this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Paul thinks Diakiese is the better athlete with better footwork and speed. He notes Alves is low-volume and explosive but fades. He expects Diakiese to stay on the outside and outpoint Alves. He is confident despite Diakiese's poor last performance.

"got to go with the bone crusher to get back on track"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Marc Diakiese

The Guru picks Marc Diakiese by unanimous decision (30-27). He expects Diakiese to establish range with his jab and calf kicks, gradually breaking down Alves over three rounds. Alves may have moments with a takedown or big shots, but Diakiese's calf kicks will limit Alves' movement and lead to a dominant performance.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to call a 30-27 for marc jacozy here over rafael alves"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 68 of 148 45% 73 of 153 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc Diakiese 0 78 of 124 62% 82 of 128 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 11 of 18 61% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Marc Diakiese 0 18 of 31 58% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc Diakiese 0 28 of 41 68% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Marc Diakiese 0 32 of 52 61% 33 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 68 of 148 45% 31 of 105 19 of 21 18 of 22 66 of 146 2 of 2 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 78 of 124 62% 28 of 65 33 of 41 17 of 18 67 of 110 9 of 12 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 11 of 18 61% 2 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 8 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 18 of 31 58% 9 of 19 9 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 2
2 Rafael Fiziev 28 of 59 47% 13 of 40 8 of 10 7 of 9 27 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 28 of 41 68% 8 of 18 8 of 10 12 of 13 27 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 29 of 71 40% 16 of 57 9 of 9 4 of 5 29 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc Diakiese 32 of 52 61% 11 of 28 16 of 19 5 of 5 29 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady likes Diakiese, believing he is better overall with a wrestling advantage he has used in recent fights. He thinks the striking will be close but Diakiese's takedowns will seal rounds. He notes Diakiese has a good chin and has never been knocked out, and might bet him if the line is right.

"I like him to win this fight and I'm going to pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi leans toward Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Diakiese should use his full MMA arsenal rather than trying to outkickbox Fiziev. He notes that Diakiese has matured and improved his wrestling and calf kicks. He warns that Fiziev is a dangerous kickboxer and that Diakiese must keep him guessing with takedown threats. He expects a tough fight but thinks Diakiese can win if he fights smart.

"if mark can kind of out mma him ... i think jacasey should win this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Diakiese, noting he has fought better competition and is always competitive. He believes calf kicks will be a huge factor, with Diakiese chopping Fiziev's legs and cruising to a unanimous decision. He mentions Diakiese has become more patient and has a reach advantage.

Diakiese by unanimous decision 30-27
"I think Marchesi is gonna waste no time getting straight to him in the first round chopping up the legs of Rafael fizzy"
WIN vs Lando Vannata
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc Diakiese 0 40 of 99 40% 45 of 111 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:07
Lando Vannata 0 25 of 70 35% 51 of 108 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc Diakiese 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Lando Vannata 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc Diakiese 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Lando Vannata 0 8 of 32 25% 9 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Marc Diakiese 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 34 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:32
Lando Vannata 0 7 of 17 41% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc Diakiese 40 of 99 40% 16 of 52 10 of 25 14 of 22 31 of 84 2 of 3 7 of 12
Lando Vannata 25 of 70 35% 4 of 36 8 of 12 13 of 22 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc Diakiese 16 of 38 42% 4 of 15 4 of 10 8 of 13 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 1
Lando Vannata 10 of 21 47% 1 of 8 2 of 4 7 of 9 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marc Diakiese 13 of 38 34% 4 of 21 4 of 9 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Lando Vannata 8 of 32 25% 2 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 8 7 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Marc Diakiese 11 of 23 47% 8 of 16 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 7 of 11
Lando Vannata 7 of 17 41% 1 of 8 3 of 4 3 of 5 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Big Brady likes Diakiese, believing he is better overall with a wrestling advantage he has used in recent fights. He thinks the striking will be close but Diakiese's takedowns will seal rounds. He notes Diakiese has a good chin and has never been knocked out, and might bet him if the line is right.

"I like him to win this fight and I'm going to pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

Daniel Levi leans toward Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Diakiese should use his full MMA arsenal rather than trying to outkickbox Fiziev. He notes that Diakiese has matured and improved his wrestling and calf kicks. He warns that Fiziev is a dangerous kickboxer and that Diakiese must keep him guessing with takedown threats. He expects a tough fight but thinks Diakiese can win if he fights smart.

"if mark can kind of out mma him ... i think jacasey should win this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marc Diakiese

The MMA Guru picks Diakiese, noting he has fought better competition and is always competitive. He believes calf kicks will be a huge factor, with Diakiese chopping Fiziev's legs and cruising to a unanimous decision. He mentions Diakiese has become more patient and has a reach advantage.

Diakiese by unanimous decision 30-27
"I think Marchesi is gonna waste no time getting straight to him in the first round chopping up the legs of Rafael fizzy"