UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos Next Fight
Age 43
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
3.55 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.14 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luke Rockhold
4.1 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.68 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.7 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
SCHED vs Navajo Stirling
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert 2 video updates
Latest Jul 27, 2026 (5 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Despite initial hesitation, AJ DeVito ultimately picks Jan Błachowicz to upset Navajo Stirling. He argues that Błachowicz's veteran savvy, leg kicks, and experience against elite competition will be key against the unproven prospect. He points out that Stirling's best win is against a quitter (Coute Laba) and that he struggled in earlier fights. DeVito believes Błachowicz's speed and takedown ability could give Stirling problems, leading to a close decision win. He notes the odds (Błachowicz +256) as a value pick.

underdog pick, odds +256, over 2.5 rounds (-180)
"I'm picking Yanlhovich to beat Navajo Sterling in the co-main event."
Jul 22, 2026 (10 days before fight) Confident Navajo Stirling

AJ picks Navajo Stirling, citing his clean striking from distance and speed. He believes Jan Błachowicz will try to wrestle but will get outstruck. He emphasizes backing the youth and rising talent, noting Jan is 43 and has been in close fights recently.

"I think the smarter pick is to back the youth, the rising talent. I'm going to go Navajo Sterling."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Jul 26, 2026 (6 days before fight) Hesitant Navajo Stirling

Angelo reluctantly picks Navajo Stirling despite previously fading him. He acknowledges Stirling's good footwork and striking, but also notes Jan Błachowicz's age (43) and believes Stirling can dance around and avoid Polish power. He expresses a desire to fade Stirling if the matchup allows.

"Navaho's going to be the pick, but if he loses, I will proudly give you the I told you so speech."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Jul 25, 2026 (7 days before fight) Hesitant Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Sterling, citing the significant age advantage (15 years younger) and Sterling's superior striking, cardio, and takedown defense. He expects a decision win, as Jan Błachowicz is old and worn, but admits he is not in love with Sterling.

win by decision
"I'll go Sterling to win this fight by decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert
Jul 25, 2026 (7 days before fight) Confident Navajo Stirling

Lucrative James picks Navajo Stirling to win a decision. He notes Stirling's youth, confidence, and improved wrestling, which could exploit Jan Błachowicz's known struggles with grapplers. He expects a close fight on the feet but sees Stirling's underrated grappling as the difference maker, especially as Błachowicz slows at 43.

"I'm picking Navajo to win this fight via decision."
CANCEL vs Bogdan Guskov
Draw vs Bogdan Guskov
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 1 84 of 149 56% 100 of 173 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 1 80 of 140 57% 98 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 13 84% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 32 of 51 62% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
3 Jan Błachowicz 1 48 of 84 57% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 0 27 of 45 60% 27 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 84 of 149 56% 56 of 112 11 of 17 17 of 20 74 of 135 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 80 of 140 57% 69 of 127 2 of 3 9 of 10 52 of 96 0 of 0 28 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 52 48% 13 of 35 3 of 6 9 of 11 25 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 21 of 44 47% 10 of 32 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 13 84% 7 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 32 of 51 62% 32 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 44
3 Jan Błachowicz 48 of 84 57% 36 of 68 7 of 10 5 of 6 38 of 70 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 27 of 45 60% 27 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1 27 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-135), Guskov (+114)

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Both men opening cautiously. Balchowicz is working leg kicks early, but Guskov is answering in kind. Guskov sticks a jab then avoids his opponent’s response. Guskov looks hesitant to engage, respecting Blachowicz’s power. The Pole continues to chip away with periodic low kicks. Blachowicz misses a double jab and Guskov briefly rattles him with a counter offering. A heavy jab from Blachowicz connects. They trade leg kicks. Another low kick from the Pole lands. Guskov responds with an inside leg kick. For the majority of the round, it’s been jabs and leg kicks from both men. Balchowicz pressures and lands a two-punch combination, then goes back to the leg kick. Guskov flurries with a combination late in the period. Balchowicz kicks the body before time expires in a slow-paced frame.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
Blachowicz comes out pumping his jab before going back to the low kick. Guskov misses a high kick. Another jab-low kick combination lands for Blachowicz, but that’s when Guskov drops him as the Pole is moving backwards. Guskov dives into top position, where he tees off with ground-and-pound. Blachowicz seems to have recovered, as he attempts a heel hook. Blachowicz eats some more ground-and-pound as a trade-off for the leg lock. Guskov frees himself and looks to punish his foe from above. Guskov grinds his forearm into Blachowicz’s face and then drops some heavy elbows. Blachowicz is covering up, but he’s been split open by the onslaught. A methodical Guskov drops more elbows as he moves into half guard. Another elbow draws a visible grimace from the Pole. Blachowicz is just trying to survive the round by holding Guskov close to him. Another series of elbows land for Guskov as the round draws to a close. Blachowicz will survive, but it was one-way traffic.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Guskov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Guskov

Round 3
The combatants hug at the start of the round. Guskov lands a right hand. Blachowicz targets the legs again, but a quick right hand connects for Guskov in response. Guskov’s left calf is reddened from Blachowicz’s attacks throughout the fight. Blachowicz leaps in and partially lands a left hook. Guskov tags Blachowicz with a couple laser rights, and he’s taking advantage of his speed. Blachowicz plods forward and lands a jab. Another heavy leg kick for the former champ. Another hard right connects for Guskov. Blachowicz is increasing his aggression and he lands some heavy hooks in close. Blachowicz goes back to the leg kick. Guskov seems to have slowed down somewhat in this round. He counters Blachowicz well nonetheless in an exchange. Blachowicz kicks the body. Blachowicz keeps the pressure on and just misses a heavy right hand .The Pole sticks a crisp jab. Guskov’s output is waning down the stretch. Blachowicz lunges in and lands a left hook. Blachowicz is in pursuit and he manages to drop Guskov near the fence in the waning seconds. Guskov gets to his feet and Blachowicz continues to unload until the horn. A great sense of urgency down the stretch from Blachowicz.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (28-28)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)

The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov is Declared a Majority Draw (29-28, 28-28, 28-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.

advises against betting
"I'm going to pick Yan. But to bet on him at minus 145, at 42 years old... would be a poor financial decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight) Hesitant Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.

Błachowicz by decision
"I'm still going with the old man. One last ride. I'm going to take Yonhovich to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.

Jan by submission +765
"I'm going to lean on the old warhorse um minus 130 Yonhovich for that chin to hold up and him just to kind of you know show goosebump that even though he's old there's still levels to this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.

Odds: Błachowicz opened -150, now -130; Guskov opened +130, now +110.
"I think you have to pick old Polish power to do it again. I think you do. I don't want to see it, but I want it to happen."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert
Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight) Hesitant Bogdan Guskov

Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.

"Give me Bogdan and Guskov to come out here as an underdog, get this upset and knock out the man with the legendary Polish power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert
Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.

"I have to pick Yan in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.

submission
"I think he should be able to mix this game up well enough eventually land some takedowns and I think he might even be able to pull off a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.

"Jan is something special, man. He just knows how to keep in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to go with Yamblohovic getting this one done over Bognam. Decision whim clearcut 3027 or 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"We're taking Jan. In part also just because he still hasn't been getting finished at all."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 59 of 131 45% 59 of 131 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 75 of 157 47% 75 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 31 of 65 47% 31 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 59 of 131 45% 17 of 67 10 of 26 32 of 38 59 of 131 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 75 of 157 47% 19 of 87 6 of 15 50 of 55 74 of 156 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 18 of 31 58% 3 of 11 1 of 4 14 of 16 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 15 of 32 46% 2 of 16 1 of 4 12 of 12 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 16 of 33 48% 6 of 16 2 of 8 8 of 9 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 29 of 60 48% 6 of 30 3 of 7 20 of 23 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 67 37% 8 of 40 7 of 14 10 of 13 25 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 31 of 65 47% 11 of 41 2 of 4 18 of 20 31 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ulberg (-265), Blachowicz (+215)

Round 1
Marc Goddard will officiate this light heavyweight showdown. Ulberg lands a low kick and a jab as he circles on the outside. Blachowicz lands a leg kick of his own, but Ulberg snaps off a jab. It’s an extended feeling-out process so far. Ulberg with a leg kick followed by a lead left hand. Blachowicz connects with a heavy leg kick. Ulberg lands a front kick down the middle. A low kick from the Pole has an impact on Ulberg. Blachowicz partially lands a high kick. The ex champ continues to chop away at Ulberg’s legs. Blachowicz moves in with a jab and Ulberg circles out. Ulberg is also staying busy with low kicks. Blachowicz’s appear to have more impact. Ulberg sticks a jab just before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
Blachowicz goes right back to work with the low kicks. Ulberg steps in with a punching combination. Ulberg lands a kick to the body and a low kick, then ducks under a power punch from his Polish opponent. Ulberg with a jab and Blachowicz punches the body. Ulberg with more leg kicks. Blachowicz pressures with a couple of power shots, but Ulberg counters effectively and the Pole stumbles away. They trade again and both land. The action is picking up, and Ulberg lands a knee. More low kicks by Ulberg. Blachowicz responds with a heavy outside leg kick. Ulberg lands a lead hook. Ulberg stays busy chipping away at the legs. Blachowicz with another low kick. A solid jab lands for the Pole. Ulberg ends the round probing at the legs.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg

Round 3
Both men open by attacking the legs, as has been the strategy throughout. Ulberg is first to shoot and he presses his foe into the cage. Blachowicz is too strong and he shrugs it off. Ulberg lands a jab and just misses the mark on a straight right. Another leg kick for Blachowicz. Ulberg answers with a pair of inside low kicks. Blachowicz with a knee and a jab, and Ulberg fires back. Blachowicz charges forward but can’t connect. Blachowicz backs his man up with a jab. But Ulberg returns fire and lands a jab. He follows up with a right hand. Ulberg lands a counter left hook and Blachowicz answers with a body kick. Neither man has been able to separate himself in this fight. Ulberg finds the range on a jab. The Kiwi works the inside and outside of his foe’s leg with kicks. Blachowicz applies pressure down the stretch, but Ulberg might have clipped the Pole with a counter during a final exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)

The Official Result
Carlos Ulberg def. Jan Blachowicz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.

"ulberg is going to be the pick and I am pretty confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert
Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Ulberg

Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.

Ulberg by decision
"give me olberg orberg by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight) Hesitant Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Connor notes the odds and seems to find value in Jan as an underdog.
"I'll keep one for the old man and i'll go with below which here ... I haven't seen him be shot yet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight) Lean Carlos Ulberg

The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to lean with the striking advantage of Bberg. Not to mention Blhovic coming back from an injury, long layoff and being 42 now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.

underdog value (nearly 3-to-1)
"I'm going to go yanovich getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight) Hesitant Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Zane notes the line movement reflects trepidation about Jan.
"I gotta stick with my kind which is uh ... Tall and possibly handsome young men ... Carlos is better than that."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 52 of 81 64% 82 of 117 3 of 8 37% 2 0 7:32
Jan Błachowicz 0 70 of 92 76% 112 of 138 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 6 of 6 100% 17 of 17 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:50
Jan Błachowicz 0 2 of 3 66% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 29 68% 32 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Jan Błachowicz 0 33 of 47 70% 54 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Alex Pereira 0 26 of 46 56% 33 of 57 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Jan Błachowicz 0 35 of 42 83% 46 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 52 of 81 64% 41 of 66 4 of 8 7 of 7 41 of 67 3 of 5 8 of 9
Jan Błachowicz 70 of 92 76% 26 of 46 23 of 24 21 of 22 62 of 83 7 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jan Błachowicz 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 20 of 29 68% 15 of 21 2 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2
Jan Błachowicz 33 of 47 70% 13 of 25 10 of 11 10 of 11 28 of 41 4 of 5 1 of 1
3 Alex Pereira 26 of 46 56% 20 of 39 2 of 3 4 of 4 24 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 2
Jan Błachowicz 35 of 42 83% 12 of 19 13 of 13 10 of 10 33 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)

Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira

Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight) Hesitant Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.

will look at props like most significant strikes
"I do think Alex wins this fight but I'm not doing anything with that I I mean honestly this is what's gonna happen I'm here saying Alex is going to win the fight he's the much better more technical Striker probably has more power Jan's gonna go in there take …"
BI
Big Brady Expert
Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.

second round submission
"I'm going to take lahovich to go out there hopefully fight smart get this fight down to the mat early and often and submit Alex Pereira in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.

over 2 takedowns for Błachowicz
"I'm leaning towards yawn who's going to be so outclassed way too slow on the feet"
LU
Lucrative James Expert
Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight) Hesitant Jan Błachowicz

James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.

"I'm gonna side with Yan because I feel like that I think Yan is a very underrated Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight) Lean Jan Błachowicz

Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to lean with blahovich again not a lot of conviction here but I think his overall Game and his comfortability at fighting at 205 pounds will eventually be the Difference Maker in the spot give me below hovich to pull off the victory here I'm gonna say by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight) Confident Alex Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.

"I gotta go the other side again the plus money is just a little too tempting"
Draw (split) (48–47, 46–48, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 55 of 117 47% 79 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 78 of 184 42% 191 of 312 2 of 10 20% 0 0 11:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 37 35% 23 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 17 of 34 50% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 48 37% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:26
4 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 19 52% 55 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 0 of 2 0% 13 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 37 48% 54 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 55 of 117 47% 19 of 71 11 of 17 25 of 29 50 of 109 5 of 7 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 78 of 184 42% 49 of 139 19 of 33 10 of 12 50 of 134 6 of 8 22 of 42
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 35 40% 3 of 20 4 of 8 7 of 7 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 43 44% 10 of 28 7 of 12 2 of 3 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 23 of 43 53% 10 of 27 3 of 4 10 of 12 18 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 37 35% 7 of 24 2 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 17 of 34 50% 5 of 19 4 of 5 8 of 10 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 48 37% 10 of 37 6 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 1
4 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 8 4 of 5 5 of 6
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 35
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-280), Blachowicz (+235)

Round 1
In this headliner, the vacant light heavyweight strap is on the line, as champ Jiri Prochazka surrendered it due to a severe shoulder injury. Once expecting to fight three rounds tonight, ex-titleholder Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and the streaking Dagestani wrestle-kickboxer Ankalaev (17-1, 9-1 UFC) are now going for five rounds and 10ish pounds of gold. While they are both touted for knockout power, they each post exactly nine knockouts in their respective careers, which account for 31% of the Polish fighter’s victories compared to 53% for the Russian. Whether it all ends by knockout, submission, decision or something else, referee Marc Goddard draws the final charge for this championship contest. The 205-pound challengers – this is a vacant title – stoically refuse to touch gloves to seal the cage around them, and it’s on with the show. Blachowicz moves to the middle of the cage to commence the match, and he backs off when Ankalaev throws a right hand at him. Blachowicz kicks the low calf, and he swats away a jab. Blachowicz sits down on another low kick, and he absorbs a front kick to the breadbasket for his work. Ankalaev jabs at the body, and Blachowicz pursues another calf kick. Ankalaev just misses with a left hand over the top, and he catches Blachowicz with a right hand as the Polish fighter comes at him. Ankalaev measures out with a right hook, and he scoots away before Blachowicz can plunk him with a haymaker. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he backs away when Ankalaev bears down on him with a string of punches. The inside kick from Blachowicz irritates his opponent, and he connects with a right hand over the top that bounces off the forehead. The light heavyweights trade in the pocket, and Blachowicz slides back to rip a kick to the body. Ankalaev fires off a head kick after a lull in the action, but this careens off the guard to little effect. When the Russian tries to give chase, Blachowicz backpedals and evades the blows. Blachowicz sinks in another body kick, and Ankalaev counters him and pushes the ex-champ back with a front kick. The front kick from Ankalaev may be his best weapon, as he gets Blachowicz’ attention every time he lands it. Ankalaev barely ducks a left hook on his way forward, and he slaps a body kick home. Ankalaev checks a low kick, and the two tentatively walk one another down until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
The second round opens with a far fiercer exchange, as Blachowicz loads up on punches that miss while Ankalaev chambers and fires off a head kick that skims off the dome. Blachowicz has second thoughts about blitzing, and settles down on a calf kick again. Blachowicz scores a right hand over the top, and he sneaks a left hook around the guard. The Russian sneaks up another high kick, but this too is guarded. The two light heavyweights swing and miss with their kicks, and Ankalaev wings two punches that breeze past the intended target. Blachowicz continues to target the low calf of his adversary, and they clash shins at the same time when kicking. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he darts forward with an uppercut to redden the face of the Russian. Ankalaev loads up on a big right hand, but his straight left is far more accurate. Blachowicz gets in sweeping kick to the shin, and this causes a stumble from Ankalaev, who is wearing it. Blachowicz blasts his man with another kick, and Ankalaev falls over briefly before charging forward, Blachowicz whips a kick to the side, and Ankalaev catches it and pushes forward for a possible takedown. Blachowicz tees off with his leg in the air, keeping his balance and belting Ankalaev with unanswered fists. When Ankalaev releases it and backs away, he changes stances. This prompts Blachowicz to attack the newly front calf, and this takes the sting out of an overhand right from the Russian. Blachowicz does not slow down pounding on the calf, and Ankalaev charges for a takedown. He does not get it before the round ends. and he limps back to his corner in serious pain.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 3
Ankalaev races forward to attack in the third round, and after one landed punch, Blachowicz wrecks his leg once more. Ankalaev wobbles and changes his stance to orthodox, so Blachowicz kicks that other leg. Ankalaev strafes from left to right, pushing out a front kick but getting pushed away from a body kick. Like a lumberjack felling a mighty oak, Blachowicz continues chopping down any leg he can find, and each strike has an appreciable effect. Playing through the pain, Ankalaev wings a huge overhand right that grazes the side of the head, and he rushes forward to throw bombs. No longer willing to sit and get potshotted, Ankalaev steps in to unload with two hooks that Blachowicz eats like pierogis. The Russian continues pressuring forward, but Blachowicz greets him with two leg kicks that nearly down Ankalaev. Ankalaev hops back and considers holding his left leg in the air, only to bite down on his mouthpiece and sling leather. When the blows largely get blocked, he sprints forward for a failed takedown. Blachowicz’ takedown defense holds up and he manages to escape, as Ankalaev kicks him in the chest. Ankalaev eats one more calf kick and walks the former champ down, throwing kicks with both lets. A knee from Ankalaev comes up in the clinch, and Blachowicz groans. Goddard recognizes this and halts the action, as Blachowicz goes to a neutral corner to try to shake it out and adjust his neoprene ankle sleeves. When they resume, Ankalaev re-engages closely to not let Blachowicz kick him again, ending up in the clinch. Ankalaev lifts up a single and dumps Blachowicz to the canvas with 10 seconds to spare, and he gets in two elbows before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Ankalaev’s legs may be swollen and welted, but he is good to go. The Russian sprints forward with a surge of adrenaline to swing hammers, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Blachowicz meets him on the way forward with an uppercut, and he absorbs a knee to the body when Ankalaev clinches him up. Ankalaev keeps tightly pressed on his man while Blachowicz attempts to escape, and they trade knees on the inside. Ankalaev gets short knees off on the inside, thumping up the body of the former champ. Blachowicz bursts to get away, but Ankalaev races ahead and sweeps him off his feet. Ankalaev lands in the guard of his foe, which closes around his waist, but he does not mind as he punches Blachowicz in the face from this position. Ankalaev cannot get enough space to do much damage from his short shots, but he does take the back when Blachowicz turns. Ankalaev considers attempting his first submission in the form of a rear-naked choke, but settles to drum up punches on the side of the head. Blachowicz returns to a knee, and Ankalaev wrestles him right back down. Ankalaev drops down the occasional left hand while he keeps a leg trapped, sitting comfortably in half guard with Blachowicz pinned to his back. Ankalaev grinds until he finds a way to posture up, and then he stands to rain down a few power punches. The round ends before any serious damage comes from this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev

Round 5
There is a double glove touch and a hug to start off the last round, and Ankalaev shocks his foe shortly after the embrace with a punch salvo. Ankalaev hurts Blachowicz with a barrage of blows, but his real purpose is to put Blachowicz on his back. The former champ tumbles to his back, and Ankalaev happily jumps on top to pick up where he left off. The crowd showers them with boos as they slow down considerably, with Ankalaev holding on from top position while Blachowicz looks for a low-percentage kimura sweep. Ankalaev easily wriggles his arm out, and he takes an arm away and starts pounding on Blachowicz with left hands. Blachowicz responds with no-look elbows, but there is no steam on them as Ankalaev continues to pound on the downed Polish fighter. Ankalaev hammers with punches and elbows, and a few get through as Blachowicz has his right arm trapped. Ankalaev continues to batter Blachowicz, whose eye is busted open from the strikes, and Blachowicz groans loudly either from frustration, injury or exertion. Ankalaev allows his foe to turn to his back so that he can smack him with left hands, and Goddard tells Ankalaev to stay busy. Ankalaev answers with a number of short elbows, and Jan is stuck on his back taking non-fight-ending punishment. Ankalaev continues his methodical ground-and-pound breakdown, and Blachowicz sits up in hopes of break this up. Ankalaev grinds right to the bitter end, and the light heavyweights have left their grueling match in the hands of the judges. They conclude a night that started strong and fell flat in the marquee attractions.
When the scorecards are read, the crowd is baffled and quite upset. The first scorecard went to Blachowicz by a 48-47 tally, the second read 48-46 for Ankalaev, and the third ended up as a 47-47 for a remarkable split draw. The UFC light heavyweight throne remains vacant, and Blachowicz admits in his post-fight interview that he feels Ankalaev won the fight. When Ankalaev speaks, he demands his title in belief that he should have been the victor, and the ultra-honorable Blachowicz interrupts him to again say that the UFC should give the belt to Ankalaev. An apoplectic Ankalaev declares in his post-fight interview that he may not fight in the UFC again, because the judges took the win away from him. With this event in the books, the UFC has one more this year. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Ankalaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (49-46 Ankalaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Blachowicz)

The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz is Ruled a Split Draw (47-48, 48-46, 47-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.

"ankalayev is absolutely the pick he is incredible value at minus 255."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.

Ankalaev wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think ankle live takes behovich down and once he does that's probably going to be the round there... I like ankle I had to get it done and to get it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I got Uncle life winning I don't think the money Line's terrible but if I was to try to chase a prop I got a feeling he's gonna do it inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight) Hesitant Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.

Odds: Błachowicz opened +170, now +224; Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"So I'm taking the flyer on block of it here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.

Bet 2 units on Ankalaev moneyline at -250. Expects decision win, possibly 4-1 rounds.
"I bet on magomed and Khalif... I played magomed minus 250 I played him to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.

lock of the week play at -255
"I personally bet him as my Lachlan I play earlier this week at minus 255. I thought that was a great line because I think he's just that much better than blowovich"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I think he wins minus 255 as a favorite I don't hate it I don't love it I'll be picking him maybe I'll end up with him on a parlay"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.

"I'm gonna be going with yamla no magamed and Goliath winning this one options win fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight) Confident Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.

Odds: Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"I'll take uncle live just to be patient enough and powerful enough and consistent enough to take advantage of his opportunities when he gets some out of the fight."
TKO (knee injury) R3 1:11 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 31 of 71 43% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 27 of 85 31% 61 of 125 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 12 of 52 23% 12 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 10 of 19 52% 44 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:33
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 31 of 71 43% 8 of 31 9 of 21 14 of 19 31 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 27 of 85 31% 14 of 60 2 of 9 11 of 16 17 of 70 0 of 0 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 53 47% 7 of 24 6 of 14 12 of 15 25 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 12 of 52 23% 1 of 32 1 of 8 10 of 12 12 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 10 of 19 52% 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 15
3 Jan Błachowicz 5 of 15 33% 1 of 6 2 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 5 of 14 35% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-180) Blachowicz (+155)

Round 1
For a probable light heavyweight title eliminator, the lead-up to this fight has been somewhat subdued, but none of that matters once the cage door closes on Blachowicz, Rakic and referee Mark Smith, who draws the final assignment at “UFC Vegas 54.” Both fighters are in orthodox stance. Blachowicz lands a hard calf kick. Blachowicz with a jab and missed right cross, then another low kick. They exchange flurries of punches. Blachowicz with a nice left to the body, but comes away bleeding from over the left eye. Blachowicz lands a low kick and another left to the body, but he is clearly distracted by blood dripping into the eye from that cut. Blachowicz catches Rakic with a right hand that rocks him, and Rakic grabs a body lock for a takedown. He can’t get it, but seems to have recovered as they disengage. Rakic steps inside a body shot and drops for a takedown, but can’t get it. Blachowicz comes up short with a calf kick at the 30 second mark. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
Blachowicz’s cutman has momentarily stopped the bleeding over the left eye, but that will certainly bear close watching as the fight goes on. The former champ lands a glancing low kick. Rakic drops levels for a takedown, and he gets it, hoisting the leg for a big finish, but dives right into a triangle choke. Blachowicz clears the arm and tries to cinch it up, but Rakic escapes and sets up in Blachowicz’s full guard. Blachowicz closes his guard and works to control Rakic’s wrists, while Rakic throws short elbow strikes to the body and head. As the halfway point of the round passes, Blachowicz briefly opens his guard and looks to hip out, but gives up on the attempt. Rakic is heavy on top, chest to chest, staying busy but not doing too much damage. They scoot to the fence and Blachowicz sits up, but Rakic has the legs laced and arms locked behind him. Rakic moves to one side and uses head position to pin Blachowicz’s torso up against the fence. Blachowicz stands just as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 3
Rakic is active with his jab in the opening seconds, reaching out to touch Blachowicz twice and backing him off. Blachowicz steps in and lands a combination, then another Rakic jab dislodges his mouthpiece. He pops it back in, and seconds later he lands an outside low kick to Rakic’s lead left leg.
Rakic steps back and unexpectedly, the right leg buckles under him completely. The Austrian goes down in agony, cradling the stricken limb.
Blachowicz steps in, but sees the fight is over and refrains from inflicting any unnecessary harm. A moment later, referee Smith arrives to wave it off, a surprising and disappointing end to fight that had been building towards something good.

The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz def. Aleksandar Rakic R3 1:11 via TKO (Leg Injury)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight) Hesitant Aleksandar Rakić

Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.

"I think I would have to go wreckage but uh I'd like to put main events on my top ticket right and his wreckage a top ticket guy I just explained that I think that the value is not really there like he's not offering me enough"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight) No clear pick

Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.

"there could be a case to be made that rakic's wrestling hasn't been tested and yawn historically fantastic chin good cardio volume is okay volume is better than what we've seen from rackets i mean if he drags this kid into deep waters and takes him down multiple times i …"
LOSS vs Glover Teixeira
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:02 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Glover Teixeira 0 28 of 45 62% 53 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 39 58% 71 of 93 2 of 6 33% 2 0 5:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Glover Teixeira 0 6 of 8 75% 29 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 15 66% 51 of 61 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:29
2 Glover Teixeira 0 22 of 37 59% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jan Błachowicz 0 13 of 24 54% 20 of 32 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Glover Teixeira 28 of 45 62% 20 of 37 6 of 6 2 of 2 26 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jan Błachowicz 23 of 39 58% 17 of 33 6 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Glover Teixeira 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jan Błachowicz 10 of 15 66% 9 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 11
2 Glover Teixeira 22 of 37 59% 16 of 31 6 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 13 of 24 54% 8 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira

Round 1
At long last, the main event of UFC 267 is here. A Cinderella story himself, Blachowicz (28-8, 11-5 UFC) will look to keep an iron grip on his throne thanks to his renowned Polish power against fellow Cinderellian fighter Teixeira (32-7, 15-5 UFC). It is feel-good story on both counts between the 38-year-old Blachowicz and the 42-year-old former challenger Teixeira, but one will have to lose when it’s all said and done. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for wherever the fight takes him, and the light heavyweights show each other the utmost of respect, touching gloves before throwing down. Blachowicz leads the dance with a thumping leg kick, and Teixeira ducks down after a right hand to fake an ankle pick. Blachowicz does not bite, and instead kicks the lead calf again. Teixeira swarms with a few punches, and he charges in for a double and lifts the champion off the ground before slamming him to the mat. Teixeira, in the center of the cage, is tightly grasped by Blachowicz’ closed guard. Blachowicz holds on to not allow Teixeira to get off much in the way of ground-and-pound, and he sneaks up a short but effective elbow in a defensive blow. Teixeira calmly starts to work some strikes from on top, not forcing anything or allowing Blachowicz to gain any space to kick off or otherwise fight his way back up to his feet. Teixeira utilizes the can opener, grabbing Blachowicz on the back of his neck and wrenching his head up, in an effort to open the guard up. Blachowicz does not appear to appreciate this, but he does not loosen up his guard posture. The challenger hacks down with a few elbows, each of them landing loudly. Blachowicz stays on his back, riding out this position for most of the round without taking a great deal of damage. Teixeira latches on to the can opener one last time, and Blachowicz wriggles his neck free as the horn blares. When they stand up, Blachowicz acknowledges to Teixeira that the Brazilian won that round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira

Round 2
The second frame begins as Blachowicz is tentative, jabbing out from a distance while not committing to follow-up strikes. Teixeira charges with strikes, and Blachowicz backs away and trips on the outskirts of the cage. When Teixeira ducks into a takedown after eating a body shot, Blachowicz pulls his leg out with all his might to get away. The Polish fighter scores a solid combination to make Teixeira pay for the try, and he dings him with a sharp uppercut. The Brazilian pursues a takedown, but Blachowicz is ready for this one this time, and he turns his foe around on the fence while starting to land some knees. Blachowicz pushes off and aims an uppercut, and he tries to time another when Teixeira shoots. The shots are more telegraphed, and as Blachowicz tries to counter with another uppercut, a looping left hand catches Blachowicz on the side of the head, hurting the champion. Instead of following up with the strikes, he pursues a single, and he manages to wrestle the champ to his back. Unlike the last round, Teixeira does not stay in guard for long, instead passing to mount like a hot knife through butter. Blachowicz eats shots from on top, and he turns over to surrender his back. Teixeira flattens him out instantly, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke and is ready to set the hook. Crushing the forearm grip with all his might, the choke does not even go under Blachowicz’ chin, squeezing the jaw like a vice. Knowing his time is up, Blachowicz surrenders and lives to fight another day. Unbelievable! At the age of 42, Teixeira is now a UFC champion, and he is the second-oldest champ in UFC history trailing only to Randy Couture at 45. As he says in his post-fight interview, promises done, and he comes home with the belt. He invites likely challenger Jiri Prochazka to the cage to face off with him, and he hopes to meet him in May. Prochazka does not join him in the Octagon, but he does pose in the crowd, excited for the opportunity. In a final moment of pure inspiration, the new champion tells people to never give up on their dreams. Next week, another pair of belts will be on the line at UFC 268 in New York, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Glover Teixeira def. Jan Blachowicz R2 3:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert
Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.

Błachowicz by knockout
"I'm going to go blhovet here um i could see to share having success here or there but i think beljovich knocks them out at some point."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.

Over 2.5 rounds (-115), Jan by decision +300
"i got yawn but i could also see where yon just wins four of the five rounds and wins the unanimous decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.

predicts knockout
"i got yamblochovic to defend his title for the second time and get a knockout along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.

"I still lean blo blhovich here i'm gonna go ablohovich i think he puts that polish power on him and then he gets to share out of there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.

Jan by KO +100 (DraftKings), small play
"yawn by knockout is my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight) Confident Jan Błachowicz

The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.

first round ko
"i'm going to be going with yamblahovic here over glover to sharer i reckon he gets this one done by ko"
Luke Rockhold - Fight History
LOSS vs Paulo Costa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 0 73 of 103 70% 106 of 137 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:28
Luke Rockhold 0 51 of 70 72% 57 of 78 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 0 27 of 34 79% 56 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
Luke Rockhold 0 19 of 23 82% 19 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Paulo Costa 0 30 of 42 71% 31 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Luke Rockhold 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
3 Paulo Costa 0 16 of 27 59% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Luke Rockhold 0 9 of 12 75% 15 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 73 of 103 70% 37 of 61 33 of 39 3 of 3 53 of 80 3 of 4 17 of 19
Luke Rockhold 51 of 70 72% 23 of 40 23 of 25 5 of 5 48 of 67 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 27 of 34 79% 13 of 19 13 of 14 1 of 1 11 of 15 2 of 3 14 of 16
Luke Rockhold 19 of 23 82% 6 of 8 11 of 13 2 of 2 17 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 30 of 42 71% 14 of 22 14 of 18 2 of 2 29 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 23 of 35 65% 11 of 23 9 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Paulo Costa 16 of 27 59% 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
Luke Rockhold 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight) Confident Paulo Costa

Angelo picks Paulo Costa over Luke Rockhold. He describes Costa as a massive middleweight with power, output, and surprising cardio, noting his relentless pace even when exhausted. Angelo acknowledges Rockhold's credentials as a former champion and talented wrestler, but believes the three-year layoff and age (38) are too much to overcome against a top-ranked opponent. He mentions that Costa has good takedown defense (80%) and that he already placed a moneyline bet on Costa at better odds earlier.

Placed moneyline bet on Paulo Costa at better odds earlier in the week.
"palo costa absolutely the pick i love luke rockhold but man first fight back in three years is who they give you that's a tough go"
BI
Big Brady Expert
Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight) Confident Paulo Costa

Big Brady is confident in Paulo Costa. He notes that Luke Rockhold hasn't fought in three years, hasn't won in nearly five years, and was knocked out in his last fight. Rockhold's chin is gone, and he looked slow and washed against Jan Błachowicz. Costa is younger, more active, hits hard, and has solid cardio. Brady expects Costa to knock Rockhold out in the first or second round. He mentions Costa's takedown defense is good, so Rockhold's wrestling won't work.

Costa by KO, round 2
"i think costa knocks him out i think austin knocks him out in the first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa but expresses concerns about Costa's weight cut and his poor grappling off his back. He notes Rockhold's durability issues but acknowledges Rockhold's BJJ could be a threat if Costa gets taken down. Ultimately, he trusts Costa's power and finishing ability.

"i'm back on the holocaust team yeah i think he'd be a fool not to it seems too good to be true but i try not to overthink it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident Paulo Costa

Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to knock out Luke Rockhold in the first round. He notes that Rockhold's chin has been suspect for a long time, citing knockouts by Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, Yoel Romero, and Jan Błachowicz. He believes Rockhold hasn't fought since 2019 and is coming back for a paycheck, which is a bad sign. Levi praises Costa's takedown defense (stuffing Yoel Romero's takedowns) and his power, and thinks Costa is catching Rockhold at the right time. He also mentions that Costa looked back to form in his last fight against Marvin Vettori.

Mentions he missed the line at -255 and now it's -360, so he's not betting but would have liked Costa at a better price. Says Costa will knock out Rockhold in the first round.
"I think he's gonna come out here and knock Luke rockhold out in the first round so yeah I got Paula Costa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight) Confident Paulo Costa

Costa should knock out Rockhold, who has a weak chin and has been inactive for three years. However, the -350 price is too high for a finish-reliant fighter. The host prefers Costa by KO at -120 (now -170) but is passing on the moneyline. He warns that if Costa doesn't finish early, Rockhold could make it a tough fight.

Costa by KO was preferred at -120 but line moved to -170; host passes.
"I'm gonna go costa costa ko but please please please do not put all your eggs in this polycaster basket."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident Paulo Costa

Paul picks Costa to knock out Rockhold inside the first two rounds. He notes Rockhold's chin issues and long layoff, and likes the under 10 minutes on Prize Picks. He mentions Costa's wild card nature but thinks he's in great shape for this fight.

under 10 minutes (fight time) on Prize Picks
"i think costa knocks them out inside the first two rounds on prize picks they've got uh this fight set at fight time 10 minutes and it's like at some of the books right now it's like minus 175 minus 182 uh for fight doesn't start round three i think …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Aug 20, 2022 (fight day) Confident Paulo Costa

The Guru predicts Paulo Costa wins by first-round KO. He describes Costa rushing across the cage, landing a big kick, and then clipping Rockhold with a shot. He sees Costa slipping Rockhold's jab, landing a right hand and body shot, then a switch kick to the body. He envisions Costa blocking Rockhold's kicks and landing an inside leg kick, then a body kick, and finally a left hook that drops Rockhold about two and a half minutes into the first round.

KO in round 1
"i've got immediate paulo costa ko"
LOSS vs Jan Błachowicz
KO (punches) R2 1:39 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 1 30 of 42 71% 38 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Luke Rockhold 0 14 of 36 38% 17 of 39 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 16 of 23 69% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Rockhold 0 8 of 26 30% 10 of 28 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:43
2 Jan Błachowicz 1 14 of 19 73% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Luke Rockhold 0 6 of 10 60% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 30 of 42 71% 11 of 21 8 of 10 11 of 11 23 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 3
Luke Rockhold 14 of 36 38% 4 of 20 8 of 12 2 of 4 9 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 16 of 23 69% 5 of 11 5 of 6 6 of 6 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 8 of 26 30% 2 of 15 6 of 9 0 of 2 6 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 19 73% 6 of 10 3 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 3
Luke Rockhold 6 of 10 60% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luke Rockhold vs. Jan Blachowicz

Round 1
Next up is a light heavyweight bout between Luke Rockhold and Jan Blachowicz. The referee is Herb Dean. No touch of gloves. Rockhold starts off with a high kick. Then he lands a kick to the body and a straight left behind it. Rockhold lands another kick to the body and then shoots for a double leg takedown. Blachowicz stuffs it and Rockhold is now looking for a body lock takedown. Rockhold switches to a single leg but Blachowicz stuffs it. Blachowicz lands a hard elbow in the clinch. Rockhold lands some knees to the body. Another hard elbow by Blachowicz. Left hook by Blachowicz on the break. Rockhold nearly lands a high kick. Rockhold with a low kick that Blachowicz checks. Low kick by Blachowicz. Kick to the body by Rockhold. Straight right, left hook combination by Blachowicz lands. Low kick by Blachowicz. Kick to the body by Blachowicz. Rockhold misses landing a high kick. Blachowicz with a straight right. Rockhold with a spinning back kick to the body. Blachowicz lands a high kick right at the buzzer that hurts Rockhold but the round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Rockhold
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rockhold

Round 2
Round two begins. Rockhold presses forward and gets caught with a counter left hook by Blachowicz. Now Blachowicz lands a low kick. Straight right by Blachowicz. Low kick by Blachowicz and that one hurt. Rockhold pushes forward and clinches Blachowicz against the fence. Blachowicz lands an uppercut from the clinch. Blachowicz with a knee to the body. They break. Blachowicz lands a brutal left hook that drops Rockhold to the canvas. He rushes in and lands some heavy punches on the ground but this fight is over. Huge win for Blachowicz.

The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz def. Luke Rockhold via KO (Punches) R2, 1:39
LOSS vs Yoel Romero
KO (punches) R3 1:48 · UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Feb 11, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yoel Romero 1 45 of 92 48% 52 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Luke Rockhold 0 45 of 119 37% 45 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yoel Romero 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Rockhold 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Yoel Romero 0 24 of 46 52% 31 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Luke Rockhold 0 17 of 51 33% 17 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Yoel Romero 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Luke Rockhold 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yoel Romero 45 of 92 48% 23 of 60 10 of 17 12 of 15 31 of 73 13 of 18 1 of 1
Luke Rockhold 45 of 119 37% 22 of 87 10 of 15 13 of 17 44 of 118 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yoel Romero 10 of 27 37% 3 of 15 1 of 4 6 of 8 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 18 of 41 43% 3 of 21 4 of 7 11 of 13 18 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yoel Romero 24 of 46 52% 13 of 30 7 of 11 4 of 5 11 of 28 13 of 18 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 17 of 51 33% 10 of 40 6 of 8 1 of 3 16 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Yoel Romero 11 of 19 57% 7 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Luke Rockhold 10 of 27 37% 9 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs David Branch
Submission (strikes) R2 4:05 · UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Sep 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Rockhold 0 58 of 85 68% 68 of 97 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:41
David Branch 0 25 of 56 44% 51 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Rockhold 0 15 of 24 62% 19 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
David Branch 0 19 of 36 52% 36 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
2 Luke Rockhold 0 43 of 61 70% 49 of 67 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:22
David Branch 0 6 of 20 30% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Rockhold 58 of 85 68% 40 of 61 8 of 13 10 of 11 21 of 32 3 of 7 34 of 46
David Branch 25 of 56 44% 13 of 42 10 of 12 2 of 2 17 of 46 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Rockhold 15 of 24 62% 4 of 8 6 of 10 5 of 6 13 of 19 2 of 5 0 of 0
David Branch 19 of 36 52% 13 of 28 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 28 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Luke Rockhold 43 of 61 70% 36 of 53 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 13 1 of 2 34 of 46
David Branch 6 of 20 30% 0 of 14 5 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Michael Bisping
KO (punches) R1 3:36 · UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Jun 04, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Bisping 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Rockhold 2 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Bisping 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Rockhold 2 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Bisping 17 of 37 45% 6 of 24 8 of 9 3 of 4 16 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 21 of 50 42% 14 of 43 3 of 3 4 of 4 17 of 46 1 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Bisping 17 of 37 45% 6 of 24 8 of 9 3 of 4 16 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luke Rockhold 21 of 50 42% 14 of 43 3 of 3 4 of 4 17 of 46 1 of 1 3 of 3
WIN vs Chris Weidman
TKO (punches) R4 3:12 · UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor · Dec 12, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Rockhold 0 48 of 75 64% 62 of 92 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:27
Chris Weidman 0 126 of 191 65% 161 of 229 2 of 4 50% 1 0 5:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Rockhold 0 10 of 12 83% 21 of 26 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:07
Chris Weidman 0 7 of 9 77% 13 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:05
2 Luke Rockhold 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Chris Weidman 0 31 of 60 51% 32 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Luke Rockhold 0 21 of 29 72% 23 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Chris Weidman 0 68 of 99 68% 83 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
4 Luke Rockhold 0 3 of 3 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Weidman 0 20 of 23 86% 33 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Rockhold 48 of 75 64% 25 of 51 18 of 19 5 of 5 40 of 67 7 of 7 1 of 1
Chris Weidman 126 of 191 65% 96 of 157 18 of 22 12 of 12 44 of 83 9 of 13 73 of 95
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Rockhold 10 of 12 83% 8 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 7 of 9 77% 1 of 2 4 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Luke Rockhold 14 of 31 45% 6 of 23 6 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 31 of 60 51% 14 of 43 8 of 8 9 of 9 26 of 53 5 of 7 0 of 0
3 Luke Rockhold 21 of 29 72% 9 of 16 10 of 11 2 of 2 20 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Chris Weidman 68 of 99 68% 63 of 91 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 22 1 of 2 55 of 75
4 Luke Rockhold 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 20 of 23 86% 18 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 20
WIN vs Lyoto Machida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:31 · UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold · Apr 18, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Rockhold 0 13 of 27 48% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Lyoto Machida 0 23 of 44 52% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Rockhold 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Lyoto Machida 0 11 of 24 45% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:12
2 Luke Rockhold 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lyoto Machida 0 12 of 20 60% 19 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Rockhold 13 of 27 48% 7 of 20 0 of 1 6 of 6 12 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 2
Lyoto Machida 23 of 44 52% 14 of 34 4 of 4 5 of 6 11 of 23 1 of 1 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Rockhold 8 of 12 66% 6 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Lyoto Machida 11 of 24 45% 9 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 18
2 Luke Rockhold 5 of 15 33% 1 of 10 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 4 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 2
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 0:57 · UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Bisping · Nov 08, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Rockhold 1 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Michael Bisping 0 16 of 65 24% 16 of 65 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Rockhold 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Michael Bisping 0 14 of 60 23% 14 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Luke Rockhold 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Michael Bisping 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Rockhold 20 of 41 48% 10 of 27 7 of 11 3 of 3 15 of 33 1 of 2 4 of 6
Michael Bisping 16 of 65 24% 10 of 53 1 of 7 5 of 5 15 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Rockhold 12 of 30 40% 4 of 18 5 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
Michael Bisping 14 of 60 23% 10 of 51 0 of 5 4 of 4 13 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Luke Rockhold 8 of 11 72% 6 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 6
Michael Bisping 2 of 5 40% 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0