UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Amanda Nunes
4.55 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.62 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
2.73 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Holly Holm
3.13 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.87 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Amanda Nunes - Fight History
WIN vs Irene Aldana
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–43) R5 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 142 of 267 53% 196 of 323 6 of 13 46% 0 0 7:00
Irene Aldana 0 41 of 143 28% 57 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Irene Aldana 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Nunes 0 31 of 61 50% 31 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Irene Aldana 0 11 of 38 28% 11 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Nunes 0 23 of 47 48% 25 of 49 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
Irene Aldana 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Amanda Nunes 0 48 of 77 62% 49 of 78 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:13
Irene Aldana 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
5 Amanda Nunes 0 19 of 26 73% 70 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:36
Irene Aldana 0 1 of 4 25% 17 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 142 of 267 53% 97 of 198 28 of 49 17 of 20 115 of 234 5 of 8 22 of 25
Irene Aldana 41 of 143 28% 25 of 118 3 of 7 13 of 18 36 of 133 3 of 3 2 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 21 of 56 37% 9 of 35 9 of 18 3 of 3 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 8 of 31 25% 5 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 4 8 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Amanda Nunes 31 of 61 50% 16 of 40 7 of 11 8 of 10 30 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 11 of 38 28% 4 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 11 11 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Nunes 23 of 47 48% 20 of 40 3 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 40 1 of 1 4 of 6
Irene Aldana 8 of 22 36% 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 2
4 Amanda Nunes 48 of 77 62% 36 of 61 6 of 9 6 of 7 45 of 71 3 of 6 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 13 of 48 27% 9 of 41 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 2
5 Amanda Nunes 19 of 26 73% 16 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 19
Irene Aldana 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Angelo picks Amanda Nunes but expresses hesitation. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and should win, but questions her motivation due to her age, wealth, and new family. He thinks she may need to rely on wrestling, and hopes she is in shape. He acknowledges Irene Aldana's technical boxing and takedown defense, but believes Nunes' power and wrestling will prevail.

"I think Amanda Nunes gets this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is the far superior fighter and that Aldana's wins are against lower-level competition. Aldana struggled with Macy Chiasson and had her back taken. Even if Nunes is not fully motivated, she should dominate. He advises against betting Nunes due to the high price and potential motivation issues, but still picks her to finish early.

first round submission; advises against betting Nunes due to high price and motivation concerns
"give me Nunez to finish aldana I think it comes in the very first round and I'll say it's by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Cody picks Amanda Nunes, citing her wrestling game plan as the key. He notes that Holly Holm and Macy Chiasson both took Aldana down multiple times, and if Nunes sticks to that approach, it should be easy work. He acknowledges Aldana's boxing and lateral movement but believes Nunes's takedowns will neutralize her. He also mentions that Nunes's motivation and conditioning looked career-best in the Peña rematch.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Nunes on PrizePicks
"if Amanda Nunes comes out here sticks to a game plan that she did in the second fight against Pena I struggle to see how Eldon is able to fight that off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Connor believes Nunes will win due to her athletic advantage and wrestling. He notes that Aldana is easy to take down and has a bad habit of pulling guard, similar to Dern. He expects Nunes to use her wrestling to control the fight, as she did against de Randamie.

Nunes opened at -360, currently -308; Aldana opened at +308, currently +260. Connor mentions the odds are getting tighter and he would not be surprised if they continue to move.
"I'm still going to pick her."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes, citing that all film and stats point to Nunes having Aldana covered in every part of the game. He notes that the line is driven down by the first Pena fight, but Nunes dominated the rematch. He acknowledges Aldana's power and cleaner hands than Pena, but believes Nunes is the better fighter with more ways to win, including superior wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu, striking, and power. He sees the grappling gap as 10 worlds apart and expects Nunes to finish the fight.

"all indications lead to Amanda having her covered pretty much everywhere"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Amanda Nunes

James picks Amanda Nunes to win but is hesitant due to volatility. He notes Nunes is 35, talking about retirement, and had an off night against Pena. He thinks if Nunes is focused, she submits Aldana within three rounds. Aldana is a good boxer but weak elsewhere. James prefers not to bet the moneyline at -350, suggesting props instead. He predicts Nunes finishes in round four or five.

Amanda Nunes to finish Irene Aldana in round 4 or 5 (official prediction)
"I'm gonna pick Amanda Nunes I think she's clearly the better Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Nunes has a clear grappling advantage and should take Aldana down repeatedly. Aldana's best chance is a knockout on the feet, but Nunes will likely close the distance and control the fight on the mat. The over 2.5 rounds is likely as Aldana is tough off her back. Nunes by decision is the most probable outcome, though the moneyline is accurate.

Over 2.5 rounds (even money), Nunes wins by decision
"I'm still gonna go with the champion here ... give me Nunes by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Paul picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging the line already factors in her inconsistency. He notes that Nunes has a minus-500 skill set but the line is discounted due to her personal life and past performances. He highlights that Aldana doesn't have big KO power, so if Nunes closes distance and gets takedowns, she should dominate. He suggests hedging by betting Nunes and then taking Aldana live after a couple rounds if Nunes fades.

Hedge suggestion: bet Nunes pre-fight, then bet Aldana live after round 2 or 3 if Nunes gasses
"I honestly feel like the line makers factored that into making this line minus 320 because Amanda Nunez probably should be a minus 500 she's got a minus 500 skill set"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging Aldana's KO power but citing a skill gap. He notes Aldana was schooled by Holly Holm and struggled against Macy Chiasson, while Nunes is a different level. He predicts Nunes will mix in takedowns and finish Aldana via standing TKO in the second round after some back-and-forth on the feet.

prediction of second round TKO, notes Aldana is a decent underdog
"I'm going with Amanda Nunes over Irene aldana"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Zane agrees with Connor that Nunes will win. He emphasizes that Aldana's wrestling is a huge problem, as she gave up three takedowns to Macy Chiasson. He notes that Nunes is not a great wrestler but Aldana is worse, and her instinct to pull guard will be exploited.

"The wrestling is just the crux. Like if she can't stop the takedowns, and really she should be able to. Like Nunez isn't even that good of a wrestler."
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–43) R5 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 60 of 154 38% 130 of 239 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 85 of 152 55% 126 of 201 6 of 8 75% 1 0 11:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Nunes 0 25 of 66 37% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 19 of 48 39% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
3 Amanda Nunes 0 6 of 21 28% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 14 of 23 60% 23 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:02
4 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 10 40% 33 of 42 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 16 of 20 80% 34 of 40 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:54
5 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 6 66% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 14 78% 20 of 26 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 60 of 154 38% 54 of 144 6 of 10 0 of 0 59 of 151 1 of 3 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 85 of 152 55% 67 of 128 10 of 14 8 of 10 57 of 117 0 of 1 28 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 21 of 51 41% 20 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 25 of 47 53% 17 of 37 3 of 3 5 of 7 25 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Nunes 25 of 66 37% 21 of 59 4 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 19 of 48 39% 13 of 40 4 of 6 2 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Amanda Nunes 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 14 of 23 60% 12 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 1 7 of 9
4 Amanda Nunes 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 16 of 20 80% 15 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 14
5 Amanda Nunes 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 11 of 14 78% 10 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 10
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is better everywhere and that the first fight was a one-off due to injury or motivation issues. He expects Nunes to finish early, but if it extends, he has concerns about her cardio. He is not betting this fight.

"i'm going to take nunes here... i'll say nunez first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Cody believes Peña is the right pick because she already exposed Nunes' cardio and quit rate. He notes Nunes has suspect cardio, has shown red flags in fights against Germaine de Randamie and Felicia Spencer, and may be unmotivated after becoming a multi-millionaire and mother. He also points out that Peña is durable, pressures well, and the odds (+245) are too juicy to pass up given she just choked Nunes out. He expects Peña to win again, possibly taking a bit longer this time.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i just think that the pace at some point will cause amanda to quit... the odds are just way too juicy to look away here's a girl that just choked her out in the second round standing feels like crap …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Daniel argues that Julianna Peña's ability to stand up to the bully and absorb Nunes' power is the key factor. He notes that Peña's iron jaw and willpower broke Nunes mentally in the first fight, causing her to tap to a choke that wasn't locked in. He believes Nunes has a history of struggling when opponents don't back down, citing the Cat Zingano fight and the Valentina Shevchenko fights. He acknowledges Nunes could win via calf kicks or a submission, but he trusts Peña's heart and durability. He also points out that long-reigning champions rarely regain their belt in immediate rematches, citing a 11-2 record for the new champion.

1 unit bet at +245; mentions that Peña could win by ground and pound from full mount this time
"I'm taking Juliana Peña. I only put one unit on it, um I think I got it plus 245."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Amanda Nunes

Preet leans Nunes to win but won't lay -260; instead he likes the over 2.5 rounds at +100. He expects a more cautious, methodical fight that goes into the later rounds, noting that rematches of first-round finishes often go the distance. He thinks Nunes will be more disciplined and use leg kicks and combinations, but Peña's durability and pressure could extend the fight.

over 2.5 rounds +100
"the spot that i think that is being overlooked here is the the over uh over one and a half minus 190 not bad but even the over two and a half plus 100"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Paul picks Peña as well, citing the narrative that Nunes emptied her tank early in the first fight and quit. He thinks Nunes can win a striking match if she paces herself, but he's terrified to bet the fight. He notes that Peña is super durable and that the odds (+245) are attractive. He compares it to Ronda Rousey's loss to Holly Holm, where people still believed in Rousey, but here Peña already beat Nunes.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i'll pick pena if i was going to bet but like i'm terrified to bet this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Julianna Peña

The MMA Guru predicts Julianna Peña wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round four. He expects Nunes to win the first two rounds with takedowns and jabs, but Peña will threaten submissions throughout. In round four, Peña times a takedown, passes to half guard, takes the back, and chokes Nunes out.

submission in round 4
"juliana pena choked her around on round four"
LOSS vs Julianna Peña
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:26 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 46 of 99 46% 58 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 79 of 135 58% 90 of 147 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 10 of 14 71% 22 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 5 of 20 25% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Julianna Peña 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Nunes 0 74 of 115 64% 74 of 115 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 46 of 99 46% 36 of 85 1 of 3 9 of 11 44 of 97 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 79 of 135 58% 69 of 122 10 of 13 0 of 0 78 of 134 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 5 of 20 25% 5 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 36 of 85 42% 32 of 78 0 of 1 4 of 6 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Nunes 74 of 115 64% 64 of 103 10 of 12 0 of 0 73 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady is very confident in Amanda Nunes winning early, likely by first-round submission. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, and cardio. Peña has poor takedown defense (23%) and was submitted by GDR, which is concerning. Nunes can finish by knockout or submission, and Brady expects a quick finish.

Nunes by submission in round 1
"i think amanda nunez is going to get it done i think she's going to get it done early very early in the first round whether it's a first round knockout or a first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Peña's striking is sloppy and she has been submitted in two of her last four fights. Levi believes Nunes will establish her jab and calf kicks, and when Peña shoots a sloppy takedown, Nunes will sprawl and lock in a d'arce or anaconda choke. He thinks Peña's trash talk will motivate Nunes to make a statement.

submission, first round, d'arce or anaconda choke
"i think that amanda nunes is going to sprawl on her and i'm thinking a darcer anaconda choke finish in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Nunes is the far superior fighter and should win, but the method is uncertain. Peña will try to grapple, which could slow the fight and push it past 1.5 rounds. Nunes has KO power, but Peña's durability and grappling could extend the fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a lean, but Nunes inside the distance is the most likely outcome.

over 1.5 rounds, Nunes inside the distance
"i'm going nunez nunes by let's say third round tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round TKO, dismissing Julianna Peña's chances. He criticizes Peña's striking technique and notes she was submitted by a standing guillotine against Jermaine de Randamie. He believes Nunes is on a different level in strength and skill.

first-round TKO
"i'm gonna go with amanda nunez here she's on a different level she's too strong she's too manly she's too lesbian juliana pena is too heterosexual i'm going with amanda nunez by tko in the first round"
Submission (triangle armbar) R1 2:03 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 18 of 25 72% 19 of 26 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:42
Megan Anderson 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 18 of 25 72% 19 of 26 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:42
Megan Anderson 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 18 of 25 72% 15 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 3 10 of 16 0 of 0 8 of 9
Megan Anderson 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 18 of 25 72% 15 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 3 10 of 16 0 of 0 8 of 9
Megan Anderson 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes confidently, citing her massive advantages in striking volume, takedown ability, and competition level. He notes Anderson's poor striking defense (38%) and takedown defense (53%). He predicts a first-round submission, but passes on betting the moneyline due to the high price.

first round submission
"give me a man of nunes here give me a man of nunes i'm gonna say first round um submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel picks Amanda Nunes, stating she is on a completely different level than Megan Anderson. He notes Anderson's weakness on the mat and suggests looking at the under for betting, expecting an early stoppage.

under
"she's just on a completely different level than uh megan anderson so for that reason she's winning this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Nunes is the greatest female fighter ever and should dominate everywhere. Anderson's only chance is a lucky KO, but Nunes's takedowns and ground game are too much. The host predicts a submission in the second round and recommends the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds minus 220, fight does not start round three minus 175, round two nunes plus 300
"i think that the lock of the night play for ufc 259 would easily be the under two and a half in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes to win, likely by decision. He dismisses Megan Anderson's competition and notes Nunes has improved her grappling, taking down top opponents. He believes Nunes will take Anderson down and outgrapple her, as Anderson was ragdolled by Holly Holm and Felicia Spencer.

"nunez is going to get the job done taking her down out grappling her it's food chain stuff"
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 06, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 124 of 214 57% 132 of 222 6 of 7 85% 1 0 8:01
Felicia Spencer 0 42 of 130 32% 70 of 161 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 21 of 34 61% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:05
Felicia Spencer 0 2 of 8 25% 8 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Amanda Nunes 0 23 of 39 58% 24 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Felicia Spencer 0 11 of 26 42% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Nunes 0 29 of 57 50% 29 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Felicia Spencer 0 10 of 46 21% 11 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Amanda Nunes 0 34 of 59 57% 35 of 60 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:34
Felicia Spencer 0 13 of 37 35% 15 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Amanda Nunes 0 17 of 25 68% 20 of 28 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:41
Felicia Spencer 0 6 of 13 46% 24 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 124 of 214 57% 90 of 170 13 of 20 21 of 24 91 of 173 1 of 1 32 of 40
Felicia Spencer 42 of 130 32% 24 of 106 7 of 9 11 of 15 36 of 118 4 of 9 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 21 of 34 61% 14 of 26 5 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 18 1 of 1 11 of 15
Felicia Spencer 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Amanda Nunes 23 of 39 58% 17 of 30 3 of 5 3 of 4 18 of 33 0 of 0 5 of 6
Felicia Spencer 11 of 26 42% 5 of 19 3 of 3 3 of 4 10 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Amanda Nunes 29 of 57 50% 21 of 44 2 of 6 6 of 7 29 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Felicia Spencer 10 of 46 21% 6 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 5 9 of 42 1 of 4 0 of 0
4 Amanda Nunes 34 of 59 57% 24 of 48 3 of 3 7 of 8 29 of 53 0 of 0 5 of 6
Felicia Spencer 13 of 37 35% 8 of 30 1 of 2 4 of 5 11 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 1
5 Amanda Nunes 17 of 25 68% 14 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 13
Felicia Spencer 6 of 13 46% 4 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady confidently picks Amanda Nunes by third-round knockout, believing her striking and power will overwhelm Spencer. He notes Spencer's striking is poor and she is overrated for lasting with Cyborg. He expects Nunes to finish early, though he acknowledges Spencer's toughness and top game could be a concern if it goes late. He sees no reason to pick against the GOAT.

Nunes by third-round knockout
"I'm gonna go man in Nunez give me a third-round knockout I just think she's in a good Spencer out of here I think Spencer's very tough but I don't think she's going to withstand all the all the volume …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel sees a complete mismatch on the feet, with Nunes' striking far superior. He notes that people overlook Nunes' black belt, but she submitted Miesha Tate and has serious grappling credentials. He predicts a first-round knockout, comparing it to Nunes vs Rousey, and dismisses Spencer's path to victory via grappling because Nunes is also a black belt.

finish within three rounds, first round knockout
"I think it's gonna be a first round knockout man I think Amanda Nunez is gonna come out here tee off on her calf kicks the boxing pop her head back stuff every takedown attempt go out there put her …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Amanda Nunes is the women's GOAT with power and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Felicia Spencer is tough and has a grappling-heavy approach, but Nunes should be able to stuff takedowns and win on the feet. However, Spencer's durability and clinch game could make it a long fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a better bet than Nunes straight at -600.

Over 1.5 rounds (-190); Amanda Nunes by decision
"i still will pick amanda nunes i think that she'll be able to you know uh stifle the takedowns um i think that she'll be able to to win off of points"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes over Felicia Spencer. He dismisses Spencer's wins as coming against weak competition in a shallow women's featherweight division. He believes Nunes has too much power and skill on the feet, and that Spencer's only chance is to push Nunes against the cage, which he doubts she can do. He expects Nunes to dominate and win.

"Nunez gets the job done over Felicia Spencer she's too much too much power too much"
Decision (unanimous) (49–44, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 79 of 184 42% 199 of 337 8 of 11 72% 2 0 18:29
Germaine de Randamie 0 40 of 73 54% 126 of 175 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 42 of 87 48% 43 of 88 2 of 2 100% 2 0 2:53
Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 23 47% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
2 Amanda Nunes 0 9 of 26 34% 33 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:13
Germaine de Randamie 0 16 of 30 53% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
3 Amanda Nunes 0 16 of 44 36% 47 of 80 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:21
Germaine de Randamie 0 8 of 10 80% 17 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
4 Amanda Nunes 0 12 of 24 50% 22 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:16
Germaine de Randamie 0 4 of 6 66% 28 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
5 Amanda Nunes 0 0 of 3 0% 54 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:46
Germaine de Randamie 0 1 of 4 25% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 79 of 184 42% 63 of 162 4 of 6 12 of 16 15 of 46 2 of 3 62 of 135
Germaine de Randamie 40 of 73 54% 19 of 48 11 of 15 10 of 10 19 of 42 12 of 13 9 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 42 of 87 48% 38 of 81 1 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 16 1 of 1 37 of 70
Germaine de Randamie 11 of 23 47% 2 of 11 4 of 7 5 of 5 4 of 9 4 of 4 3 of 10
2 Amanda Nunes 9 of 26 34% 4 of 20 0 of 0 5 of 6 5 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 8
Germaine de Randamie 16 of 30 53% 10 of 24 5 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 22 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Amanda Nunes 16 of 44 36% 13 of 39 1 of 2 2 of 3 2 of 8 0 of 0 14 of 36
Germaine de Randamie 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
4 Amanda Nunes 12 of 24 50% 8 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 19
Germaine de Randamie 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1
5 Amanda Nunes 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2
Germaine de Randamie 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2
WIN vs Holly Holm
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (punch) R1 0:51 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cristiane Justino 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cristiane Justino 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cristiane Justino 13 of 21 61% 12 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 12 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cristiane Justino 13 of 21 61% 12 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 12 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm - Fight History
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:47 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kayla Harrison 0 2 of 12 16% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 51 of 71 71% 68 of 91 2 of 5 40% 1 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 46 of 62 74% 56 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:49
2 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 5 of 9 55% 12 of 18 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kayla Harrison 2 of 12 16% 1 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 51 of 71 71% 46 of 66 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 15 3 of 3 42 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 46 of 62 74% 43 of 59 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 41 of 51
2 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 0 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.

Will watch weigh-ins before betting
"I think Kayla absolutely blows through Holly home here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.

"I will back her and think that she does get that done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to pick Kayla Harrison too, obviously, but it does have to be said that like Kayla Harrison does not have a record littered with the most impressive fighters, let's say."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.

"I am definitely going with Kayla as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.

"I'm excited to see Kayla in the UFC I know a lot of people are on her I'm excited to see her on the UFC me personally man so that's another good fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.

submission, wait for weigh-ins
"I do lean Harrison as I think that her grappling will end up being too much for Holly Holm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.

"I think it's a clear dogger pass probably a pass for me but uh do you have an official pick... I find myself pulling the coward card on this one and going with Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.

"Kayla Harrison is going to get down Holly Holm and dominate her in this fight to a decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Zane mentions the line movement.
"My lane is that Kayla Harrison's clinched judo game is too good for Holly home to be just strong in the clench and make that what works for her."
No Contest (overturned) R2 0:38 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 27 of 39 69% 50 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:05
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 26 of 38 68% 49 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:42
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 19 of 33 57% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 27 of 39 69% 15 of 24 10 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 31 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 37 54% 9 of 21 7 of 10 4 of 6 13 of 28 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 26 of 38 68% 15 of 24 9 of 11 2 of 3 20 of 30 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 19 of 33 57% 8 of 17 7 of 10 4 of 6 12 of 24 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-170), Bueno Silva (+145)

Round 1
Likely the lone fight on the card with immediate championship implications, former champ Holm (15-6, 8-6 UFC) will look to send a message to the matchmakers that she is still at the top of her game at 41 years of age. Silva (10-2-1, 5-2-1 UFC), 10 years younger, is gunning for an upset, with upwards of five rounds to do just that. Needing no further introduction, referee Keith Peterson prepares for the bantamweight main attraction, one that opens up with a quick tap of gloves and not a lick of nonsense. Silva advances slowly, and Holm races at her and throws punches to back her away. Silva kicks the lead calf twice, and Holm gives her a scare with a head kick. Holm is moving quickly on the outside, and she sticks Silva twice with right hands before changing levels for a single. Silva stands up and elbows her foe in the face, leading Holm to let it go and squeeze against her in the clinch. They trade short knees on the inside to little effect, and Holm settles down to impose her weight and will. Holm pushes off and gets away without a strike on the break, and she lifts her leg up to check a body kick. Holm moves quickly to get Silva’s attention with a few punches, and she is out of the way before a counter finds its mark. Holm uses her momentum to clinch Silva up again. When they stall out, Holm times an elbow to break away, and she separates to back off only to lunge forward with a few punches. Silva wings an elbow that slams into Holm’s temple, and Holm has to shake it off and retreat. Silva chases with a few punches, and Holm kicks her way out of a clinch and starts working the body with her feet. Silva comes up short on a front kick, and Holm bounces around before Silva comes towards her. Holm dodges a spinning strike, and she takes a left on the chin and a subsequent right hand to stun Holm. The former champ shoots in for a double after getting her bell rung, and the Brazilian keeps her back to the cage wall and even lifts up a knee to hit Holm during the takedown. Silva motions to Peterson to get between them, but the round ends with Holm hanging on tight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm paces back and forth in her corner before they start fighting again, and Silva takes the center of the cage and gets kicked in the midsection on the way in. Cutting Holm off, Silva pops Holm with a right hook. The former kickboxer moves forward to clinch, and Silva slides her arm under the chin with her back leaned against the wall.
As Holm leans over for a potential takedown, Silva connects her arm to set up a ninja choke that is a modified, dangerous guillotine choke. Holm wriggles but is shocked at this situation, as she is trapped and cannot come up with a way to get out of the bad spot. “Sheetara” leans forward to press her chest down and put more pressure on the neck and submission grip, and she knows she has set the hook. Before she goes out, Holm frantically taps out on the side of her opponent.
Peterson rushes to the other side to see if there had been a tap, and Silva releases the grip before Peterson is able to get between them and separate them. This is a massive feather in the cap for the Brazilian, who is only the second fighter to ever submit Holm – and the first, Miesha Tate, did so to win the bantamweight title. The victorious Silva is the only betting underdog to have pulled off a win tonight, and she made a real statement and stamped herself as an instant contender for the champ-less division. In her post-fight interview, Silva speaks about her mental health issues, thanking those that helped her through the worst days that are behind her. Calling for a title shot, it could be entirely possible that “Sheetara” punched her ticket for that opportunity, as the line of contenders is hardly a determined one. If she gets the next crack at the 135-pound title, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mayra Bueno Silva def. Holly Holm R2 0:38 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is confident in Holly Holm, calling her the more technical striker with better takedown defense and offense. He notes Silva's losses have come via wrestling, and Holly can do the same. He thinks Holly can hold Silva against the cage, get takedowns, and avoid submissions. He placed a one-unit moneyline bet at minus 160. He disagrees with a DM suggesting Silva should be the favorite, stating Holly has earned the right to be favored.

one unit moneyline bet at -160
"Holly Holm confident pick and I have that one unit moneyline bet on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with hesitation, as he sees two clear outcomes: Holm dominating on the feet or Bueno Silva catching an armbar. He notes Holm is 41 but still looks good, and if she fights smart and keeps it standing, she should cruise. However, he worries Holm might take Bueno Silva down and get submitted. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Not betting this fight
"I'm gonna take Holly home here but I could 100 see a scenario where Holly Holm takes down Bueno Silva and gets like armbarred and I'm extremely annoyed because I bet holy home but luckily I'm I'm not betting this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm, comparing her to a Rolex watch that keeps going. He highlights her high ring IQ, ability to adapt, and wrestling improvements. He notes Silva's takedown defense issues and that Holm can mix in takedowns. He expects Holm to Matador from the outside, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, possibly winning championship rounds.

"I gotta go with Holly Holm as well minus 180 women's MMA again... she's like a Rolex watch man she just keeps going"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

James is leaning towards Mayra Bueno Silva as an underdog. He notes that Holly Holm is 41 years old and may be declining, while Bueno Silva has strong submission skills and finishing ability. He mentions that many respected bettors are on Holm, but he is skeptical of her grappling and thinks Bueno Silva could submit her. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards the dog side.

submission finish
"I do think that Buena Silva has some submission upside that Holly Holm maybe hasn't seen before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host believes Holm's veteran savvy and clinch-heavy approach will keep her safe from Bueno Silva's submissions. He expects Holm to mix striking, clinch, and grappling to cruise to a decision win. He notes Bueno Silva's lack of urgency and low volume as weaknesses.

"I think she wins by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul picks Holly Holm, citing her technical striking, experience, and ability to win at range. He expects a slow, tepid fight with Holm winning a decision, similar to the Vieira fight. He notes the line moved from -145 to -180, so he missed his betting window. He also mentions the PrizePicks over 90.5 significant strikes is tight and won't play it.

mentioned over 90.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks but won't play it
"I think experience wins out here she can win with volume on the feet... I expect a slow tepid Affair 25 minutes and home gets her hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva, noting Holm's activity, athleticism, and ability to control fights against the cage. He questions Silva's cardio for a five-round fight and doubts her submission threat, believing Holm can dictate where the fight takes place. He predicts Holm wins by decision or late stoppage.

"I'm gonna go with Holly Holm confident in her I think mayor Bueno Silva's dangerous but I don't think she's dangerous enough on the feet"
WIN vs Yana Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 32 of 63 50% 105 of 163 4 of 6 66% 0 0 9:49
Yana Santos 0 21 of 46 45% 120 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 7 of 16 43% 24 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:41
Yana Santos 0 12 of 25 48% 50 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
2 Holly Holm 0 16 of 33 48% 43 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Yana Santos 0 7 of 12 58% 38 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 9 of 14 64% 38 of 60 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:59
Yana Santos 0 2 of 9 22% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 32 of 63 50% 23 of 49 8 of 12 1 of 2 14 of 33 4 of 5 14 of 25
Yana Santos 21 of 46 45% 3 of 22 8 of 9 10 of 15 15 of 37 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yana Santos 12 of 25 48% 2 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 8 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 16 of 33 48% 12 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 1 12 of 21
Yana Santos 7 of 12 58% 1 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 5 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 9 of 14 64% 6 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 4
Yana Santos 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.

"Holly Holm is my most confident pick on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.

Holm by decision
"holms gonna go out there and hold Santa's against the cage for three rounds decision to win there you go but I would not be betting on this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.

Holly Holm by decision; over 2.5 rounds
"I would personally bet Holly Holm by decision because I don't want to bet Hollywood minus 250 straight up"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.

Mentions odds: Holm opened -200, currently -238; Santos opened +150, currently +193. Notes line is getting wider.
"I got to just pick Holly home to hold her on the fence for three rounds and for Yana Konitsuka to not be able to make anything that makes it look like she's won the fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.

Found plus money on Holly Holm (specific prop not stated)
"I found plus money for Holly Holm that I absolutely love."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.

"I think we're in store for another veteran performance here from Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.

"probably just Holly Holm holding her against a cage... I'm gonna go Holly home pushing her against a cage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.

Mentions odds: Holm -238, Santos +193. Notes the line is getting wider.
"You got to pick home Santos. She really would have to prove that she can win a fight like this."
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 96 of 157 61% 188 of 263 0 of 6 0% 0 0 10:03
Holly Holm 0 85 of 151 56% 122 of 190 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 6 of 9 66% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:36
Holly Holm 0 19 of 22 86% 40 of 45 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 21 66% 33 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:46
Holly Holm 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 18 of 30 60% 42 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:50
Holly Holm 0 23 of 37 62% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 21 of 29 72% 43 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:42
Holly Holm 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 96 of 157 61% 26 of 79 34 of 40 36 of 38 76 of 133 20 of 24 0 of 0
Holly Holm 85 of 151 56% 49 of 109 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 110 32 of 37 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 4 3 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0
Holly Holm 19 of 22 86% 3 of 5 14 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 6 14 of 14 2 of 2
2 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 21 66% 6 of 13 2 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 22 45% 7 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2
3 Ketlen Vieira 18 of 30 60% 4 of 13 9 of 11 5 of 6 13 of 25 5 of 5 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 37 62% 11 of 25 11 of 11 1 of 1 13 of 26 10 of 11 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 37 of 68 54% 5 of 33 16 of 18 16 of 17 36 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 19 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 21 of 29 72% 9 of 16 7 of 8 5 of 5 16 of 22 5 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)

Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira

Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm

Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.

Holly Holm by decision
"holly holm by decision is probably the best bet in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.

"i like holly holm to win i like calling him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000), Holm by decision
"i'm willing to pay if i need to but i'd like to improve it and whereas normally i would just hammer up this holly holm by decision i almost do get that bad impression as you mentioned that home could …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.

over 4.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"home vieta over four and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000)
"i like holly holm to win -240 scares me a little bit off she obviously she's 40 years old um but like i mean she's still in damn good shape for her age the volume is always there obviously she's …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.

"i'm going to go with holly holm i'm going to go decision win"
WIN vs Irene Aldana
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 154 of 301 51% 187 of 342 5 of 14 35% 0 0 5:16
Irene Aldana 0 69 of 185 37% 92 of 210 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 21 of 50 42% 31 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 23 of 47 48% 27 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 32 37% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 37 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:06
Irene Aldana 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Holly Holm 0 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Holly Holm 0 48 of 95 50% 53 of 102 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 154 of 301 51% 81 of 214 56 of 68 17 of 19 140 of 272 1 of 1 13 of 28
Irene Aldana 69 of 185 37% 38 of 128 12 of 30 19 of 27 65 of 181 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 21 of 50 42% 8 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 12 of 31 38% 3 of 14 1 of 4 8 of 13 12 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 23 of 47 48% 10 of 31 8 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 45 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 12 of 32 37% 5 of 21 2 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 12 of 38 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 0 of 0 9 of 24
Irene Aldana 9 of 25 36% 4 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Holly Holm 39 of 58 67% 14 of 28 19 of 24 6 of 6 37 of 56 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 18 of 42 42% 13 of 34 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Holly Holm 48 of 95 50% 37 of 84 11 of 11 0 of 0 47 of 94 1 of 1 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 18 of 55 32% 13 of 40 3 of 12 2 of 3 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.

"give me uh irene aldana to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.

Aldana by decision; mentions Aldana is the underdog at +100; notes hesitancy betting due to possibility of Holm winning a close decision
"i'm going to say irena aldana wins this decision by just slightly having more output than holly holm"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.

"i am going to take hollyoam to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.

Prediction: TKO round 2
"i'm going to go with irene o'donnell here i think she gets it done against holly holm"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 47 of 71 66% 143 of 176 4 of 8 50% 1 0 10:44
Megan Anderson 0 26 of 58 44% 48 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 12 of 17 70% 35 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Megan Anderson 0 15 of 31 48% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 18 of 31 58% 57 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:39
Megan Anderson 0 7 of 19 36% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 17 of 23 73% 51 of 60 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:32
Megan Anderson 0 4 of 8 50% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 47 of 71 66% 27 of 47 12 of 14 8 of 10 19 of 35 8 of 10 20 of 26
Megan Anderson 26 of 58 44% 15 of 42 11 of 16 0 of 0 19 of 48 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 12 of 17 70% 4 of 7 5 of 5 3 of 5 5 of 8 6 of 8 1 of 1
Megan Anderson 15 of 31 48% 9 of 24 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 21 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 18 of 31 58% 15 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 1 10 of 14
Megan Anderson 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 17 of 23 73% 8 of 13 5 of 6 4 of 4 7 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Megan Anderson 4 of 8 50% 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0