Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.

Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.

Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.

Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.

The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.

Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.

Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.

Connor believes Chiesa is a much higher-level fighter than McGee, with more dynamic offense and a variety of ways to finish. He expects Chiesa to use his speed and size advantage to outscramble McGee, despite Chiesa's susceptibility to submissions. Connor notes that McGee's submission threat is low, as he hasn't submitted anyone since 2010.

Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.

The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.

Angelo picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog, believing Chiesa can use his grappling to neutralize Max Griffin's power. He notes Chiesa's improved fight IQ from coaching and analysis work. However, he acknowledges the fight is tricky and expects it to go the distance. He suggests possibly betting the spread (Chiesa +3.5) when props drop.

Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and submission threat. He notes Griffin's takedown defense issues and close decision losses. He thinks Chiesa can grind out a win, though he acknowledges Chiesa's inconsistency.

Connor picks Chiesa, arguing that Griffin lacks a defined game plan and often wanders out of fights. He notes that Chiesa is aggressive with his reach and clinch work, and that Griffin is not a submission threat, which is important because Chiesa has been submitted in most of his losses. Connor believes that if Chiesa pressures and forces clinches, Griffin will not have an answer.

Daniel picks Chiesa as an underdog, citing Griffin's recent decline and takedown defense issues. He believes Chiesa's grappling and strength will be decisive once he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Griffin's lack of submission threat.

This is a fight between two flaky fighters, but I lean with Griffin's activity as of late. His ability to keep the fight standing and out-strike Chiesa on the feet will allow him to win on the scorecards.

Paul picks Chiesa, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Griffin's struggles with grapplers. He notes Griffin's age and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Chiesa can control the fight and win a decision or submission.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, though he calls it tricky. He believes Chiesa's grappling will be the difference, as Griffin has historically struggled with grapplers (citing Colby Covington fight). He thinks Griffin lacks the dynamic striking to finish Chiesa early, and trusts Chiesa to grind out a 29-28 decision.

Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.

Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.

Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.

Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.

Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.

Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his accurate and powerful striking, and the fact that Chiesa has been away from fighting and focused on commentary. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but thinks Chiesa's takedowns are not elite and that Holland's length and BJJ will be a problem. He has a half-unit bet on Holland at -145.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He argues that Holland's takedown defense issues were at middleweight, and at welterweight he should be more comfortable. He questions Chiesa's activity and focus, and notes Chiesa makes mistakes on the mat, having been submitted four times. He expects Holland to land a big shot or snatch a submission.

Cody picks Chiesa by decision, noting Chiesa's style is kryptonite for Holland if he can get takedowns. He acknowledges Chiesa's layoff and injury concerns but believes at his best he can grind out a decision. He took the prop at +340, which he considered off-market. He is not fully convinced but sees value.

James sees value on Chiesa as a dog, citing his clear grappling advantage over Holland, who struggles with takedown defense. He notes Chiesa will likely shoot multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground. However, he also acknowledges Holland's knockout power and submission threat, making him hesitant to bet heavily.

Chiesa is a talented grappler who can close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Holland still has grappling issues and Chiesa will control him from top position. Holland's takedown defense improvements will be tested but I think Chiesa grinds out a decision. I'm going with Chiesa by decision.

Angelo picks Sean Brady, citing his athleticism, power, and 100% takedown defense. He notes Chiesa is one-dimensional and has cardio issues, while Brady is more willing to strike and has clean doubles. He does not bet the moneyline but likes a prop: Michael Chiesa +3.5 rounds (win at least one round) at -150, as he expects Chiesa to win the third round due to Brady's potential fatigue.

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog at +140. He cites Chiesa's experience against top competition and his wrestling advantage. He notes that Sean Brady has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber and that Chiesa has controlled elite fighters like RDA and Neil Magny. He believes the striking is close but gives the wrestling edge to Chiesa, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Brady is coming off an injury.

Cody is picking Brady but with low confidence due to the price tag. He notes that Brady is undefeated but has faced lower-level competition, while Chiesa is a step up. He highlights Brady's well-rounded skills: good striking, BJJ black belt, and excellent top game. He believes Brady can sprawl and out-strike Chiesa, and may even catch a guillotine if Chiesa gets reckless. However, he acknowledges Chiesa's size and durability, and that Chiesa has only lost to top grapplers like Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Vicente Luque.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Sean Brady to submit Michael Chiesa. He argues that Brady is extremely skilled, physically strong, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu with 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He criticizes Chiesa for having only a Plan A and mentally checking out when his grappling fails. Levi believes that if Chiesa gets his takedowns stuffed, he will panic, and Brady will capitalize with a submission.

Lock likes Brady but has concerns about his lack of footage off his back. He thinks Brady's wrestling is strong enough to counteract Chiesa's, and that Brady has a striking advantage with leg kicks. He notes Chiesa has mental lapses and a desk job that might distract him. Lock predicts Brady by decision at +275.

Paul is also picking Brady but is nervous about laying -160. He points out that Chiesa was a favorite just one fight ago against Vicente Luque, and that loss was a first-round submission that doesn't fully reflect the competitiveness. He notes Chiesa's size and ruggedness, but also his low striking output and lack of ground-and-pound. Paul thinks Brady's superior striking and grappling will eventually figure Chiesa out, but he's not confident enough to recommend a bet at the current price.

Angelo is hesitant but leans Chiesa, noting that Chiesa is one-dimensional with wrestling but can dictate where the fight goes. He acknowledges Luque's power and improved wrestling camp with Kami Barzini, but thinks Chiesa's relentless grappling may be too much. He calls it a close fight and says he would avoid betting the moneyline.

Big Brady believes Chiesa's wrestling and top control will be the key. He notes Luque is hittable and has been taken down before, while Chiesa shoots for takedowns immediately and limits opponents' striking opportunities. He thinks Luque is finish-or-bust and will likely lose a decision. He picks Chiesa as a dog by decision.

Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and ability to neutralize Luque's striking. He notes that Luque has struggled against wrestlers in the past and that Chiesa's top control and pressure will be effective. Cody expects a decision win for Chiesa.

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to finish Michael Chiesa, citing Luque's striking advantage, calf kicks, left hook, and opportunistic submission ability. He believes Chiesa is outgunned on the feet and will have to shoot from distance, which could lead to a guillotine or other finish for Luque. He also notes that Chiesa hasn't been truly tested at 170 and that Luque is a clear step up in competition. He thinks the line should be closer to -160.

Chiesa is a big welterweight with strong wrestling and grappling. Luque is a dangerous striker but has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber. Chiesa should take the fight to the ground and control Luque, avoiding striking exchanges. Luque's BJJ off his back is not elite, and Chiesa can grind out a decision or find a submission. The decision prop at +240 is good value.

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a 'dogger pass situation' and taking Chiesa. He notes that Chiesa's wet blanket style may not be pretty but is effective, and that he usually avoids stand-ups by staying busy in half guard. Paul prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.

Big Brady initially leaned towards Neil Magny but changed his mind after tape study. He believes Michael Chiesa's wrestling and top game will be decisive, noting Magny's 59% takedown defense and that he hasn't faced many wrestlers lately. He praises Chiesa's performances at 170 lbs and predicts he will grind out Magny for a decision win, possibly finding a submission. He says he might bet Chiesa if the line gets wider.

The host believes Neil Magny's cardio, pressure, and fight IQ will be too much for Michael Chiesa in a five-round fight. He notes that Chiesa's best chance is a submission in the first two rounds, but if Magny survives, he will take over. He predicts a late TKO for Magny, possibly in the fourth round.