Career Averages - Henry Cejudo
Career Averages - Dominick Cruz
Henry Cejudo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 60 of 116 | 51% | 77 of 136 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 134 of 217 | 61% | 156 of 240 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 40 of 57 | 70% | 50 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 50 of 88 | 56% | 57 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 49 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 60 of 116 | 51% | 33 of 83 | 10 of 12 | 17 of 21 | 51 of 104 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Payton Talbott | 134 of 217 | 61% | 89 of 167 | 34 of 39 | 11 of 11 | 90 of 168 | 28 of 31 | 16 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 22 of 44 | 50% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 14 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Payton Talbott | 40 of 57 | 70% | 28 of 45 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 18 of 38 | 47% | 11 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 50 of 88 | 56% | 35 of 69 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 62 | 12 of 15 | 9 of 11 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 20 of 34 | 58% | 11 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 44 of 72 | 61% | 26 of 53 | 14 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 60 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.
Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.
Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.
Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.
Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.
Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.
The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.
Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cejudo's career shows a reluctance to wrestle unless forced. He points out that Talbott's game is built on pressure and volume, similar to Colby Covington's approach, but with actual striking talent. Zane believes Talbott will come in improved after the Lima fight, where he showed better defensive wrestling. He thinks Cejudo's takedowns will be less effective as the fight goes on, and Talbott's pace will overwhelm him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 67 of 133 | 50% | 67 of 133 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 84 of 178 | 47% | 84 of 178 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 33 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 30 of 78 | 38% | 30 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 67 of 133 | 50% | 40 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 15 of 15 | 67 of 132 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 84 of 178 | 47% | 46 of 133 | 14 of 21 | 24 of 24 | 82 of 176 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 13 of 25 | 52% | 3 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 21 of 31 | 67% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 29 of 55 | 52% | 18 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 33 of 69 | 47% | 17 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 11 | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 25 of 53 | 47% | 19 of 45 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 30 of 78 | 38% | 23 of 68 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
His back against the wall, former two-division champ Cejudo (16-4, 10-4 UFC) finds himself on a rare losing streak, albeit to two of the best bantamweights in the world in Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili. The Olympic gold medalist takes a slight step down in competition to face Song (21-8-1, 1 NC; 10-3-1 UFC), who also lost his last fight against a champ-level fighter in Petr Yan. The 135ers are brought to the center of the cage by referee Jason Herzog, and they acknowledge one another and double bump their gloves together. It’s on with the show. Cejudo pump-fakes his hips several times to give the impression of a looming takedown, and Song does not bite on a single one and fires off a heavy low kick. Cejudo rushes forward with a one-two that misses the mark, and he races forward and catches Song at the end of an exchange. Song bounces off the cage and gets back to kicking the wrestler in the lead leg and little else. Song sits down on a counter, but Cejudo is in and out with a body kick before that happens. Cejudo fakes a takedown to come up overt the top with a left hook, and after that fails, he motions low for a level change and attack with a flying knee. Cejudo lets fly a low kick and gets jabbed in the belly for his handiwork. Song uses his range to potshot from afar with jabs, low kicks and reaching left hooks. Cejudo fakes his way in but does not engage in anything other than a low kick of his own, and as Song backs off, Cejudo kicks him in the side. Chants of “USA” rain down in support of the wrestler, and Song takes advantage of the energy by clipping the American with a right hand and further flusters him with low kicks. The two drill one another with low kicks, and Song’s ankle bends awkwardly as he tries to put pressure on it. Cejudo keeps kicking the calf, and he shoots low and comes out swinging high. Song rips a kick to the side, and he nearly splits the guard with an uppercut. Both fighters blitz and pull back before letting things go, and Song sits down on a right hand. When Cejudo kicks the body of his foe, Song cracks him with another right hand. Cejudo is fired up and swings back with a vengeance, and he chases Song around until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 2
The fighters high-five to get started again, and then pull back without trading. Song eventually works his way forward, chipping away with kicks to the body. Cejudo surges forward with two hooks, and his low kick is all that lands from it. Song darts back and works the body, and Cejudo says something to him and strikes. Song swipes out with a left hook, and leg kicks fly from both sides. Song splits the guard with a double jab, and his naked leg kick is nearly countered with a right up top. Song backs off the former champ with a few long punches, and he puts a few right hands down the pipe and goes to the body after. Cejudo waves him on, and he comes up top with a right hand when faking a takedown. Cejudo goes after a takedown, and Song shrugs it off and triples up on his jab. They whip kicks at one another, and Cejudo times a solid left. A jumping switch kick from Cejudo lands to the side, and he drops down in pursuit of a takedown. Song’s sprawl shuts it down, and he fires off kicks to the lead leg. One skims the cup, but Cejudo motions that he does not want to pause. As Song keeps kicking, he falls over, and Cejudo charges at him and then backs off. Song allows Cejudo to come in so he can belt him in the face with a pair of hooks, and he trips Cejudo up with his leg kicks and forces a stance switch. Song jabs and jabs, following a few with right hands and beating the elder statesman to the punch. Song gets a right hand in and escapes, only for Cejudo get his hands on him with a fierce right. Song staggers back and is ready to engage, as if he needs to take damage to get out of first gear. Song suddenly drops down for a single, and Cejudo tosses it aside and scores a right hand. The former champion lands another overhand right, and Song clips him with an uppercut. Song stands his man up with a left, and Cejudo wants to bang it out and does just that. A few right hands from “The Messenger” bloody up Song’s nose, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Round 3
Song wants to pay Cejudo back right out of the gate, surging forward throwing punches. Cejudo stands in the pocket ready for battle, and he fakes his takedown every so often to further open things up on the feet. Song never bites, and instead stands Cejudo up with his sharper punches. The punches from Cejudo open a cut on Song’s cheek, and Song blocks a jump knee and pushes Cejudo aside. The two trade one after the other, not concerned about power and willingly engaging. Cejudo blocks a few punches to throw back, but it is Song’s one-two that gets through. When Cejudo lashes out, Song pushes off with a front kick that lands on the cup. Herzog asks replay to check if this is a direct foul, and after 30 seconds, they get back to it. Cejudo ducks a few jabs and swings hard, and again drops down for a level change only to swing up high. This results in a furious brawl, with Cejudo right there in front of the fighter from China swinging hard. Song jumps at his man with a knee, and Cejudo blocks it just in time. Song knocks Cejudo back during an exchange and grins, and he slaps a kick low and backs off when Cejudo hurls a left hook at him. Cejudo sneaks in a clean right hand to get Song’s attention, and Song pays him back with a clubbing right. Song pushes off with his fingers outstretched, and his fingers jam into both of Cejudo’s eyes like a Three Stooges poke. Herzog pauses the action and tells Song to be careful, and Cejudo asks for a cloth to wipe his eyes while telling Herzog to take a point. Cejudo wipes his eyes out with a wet towel, taking ample time to recover while blinking his eyes repeatedly to clear his vision. Cejudo declares to Herzog that he wants to fight and needs to take the time to see better, and he sits down. The crowd showers him with boos, and Cejudo tells the audience to cool it because he was the recipient of a nasty foul. Cejudo uses the complete five-minute break to clear up, and when they resume, Song still holds his fingers out towards his opponent. Song walks Cejudo down and busts him in the chops, clipping him with a solid uppercut when Cejudo is circling away. Song backs Cejudo against the fence, trying to cut him off and aim long strikes at him like front kicks and jabs. Cejudo ducks back to defend from further uppercuts, and he dodges a jump knee to get to the end of the round. Cejudo complains to his corner that he cannot see, and Herzog is paying close attention to this. Cejudo asks the promotion to call in the doctor, and that he cannot see out of his left eye.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 4
Herzog allows the third round to complete, and he goes to start the fourth round and calls time, officially bringing in the doctor and waving the fight off. This means that the fighters will be going to a technical decision, and everyone in the building is disappointed. The first three rounds will be scored in their entirety, and a rematch is almost certainly in the cards for these two. After such a terrific start to the event, it is unfortunate for the night to end like this. Both fighters are game to run it back. When they do, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Technical Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Song Yadong despite being a huge Henry Cejudo fan. He notes Cejudo is 38 and hasn't won since 2020, while Song is young, fast, and a clean striker. He thinks Song will look better as the fight goes longer. He will not bet on the fight because he will be rooting for Cejudo and never bets on someone he doesn't think will win.
Big Brady picks Song Yadong, noting that Henry Cejudo is 38 years old and may not be taking his career seriously, citing an interview where Cejudo was smoking. He believes Song's takedown defense and get-up game have improved significantly since the Stamann fight, and that Song is 11 years younger with a height advantage. He expects Song to win a clear one-sided decision, with Cejudo maybe getting a takedown here or there but being outworked.
Connor picks Song Yadong but is hesitant, noting that if the fight were three rounds he would pick Cejudo. He acknowledges Cejudo's ability to take Song down early and grind, but doubts Cejudo can maintain pace or finish Song. Connor points out that Cejudo's speed may not shock a young fighter like Song, and that Song is very tough to finish.
The host thinks Song's striking style will be too much for Cejudo, who may make the fight closer than odds indicate. He believes the damage Song inflicts will lead to a decision victory.
The Guru picks Song Yadong by decision, arguing he is more athletic, faster, and has better footwork. He doubts Cejudo's takedown effectiveness, noting he hasn't seen a good takedown from him in years and that opponents often get back up. He believes Song's defensive grappling is strong and that he will outpoint Cejudo on the feet over five rounds, predicting a 48-47 score.
Zane picks Song Yadong because he believes Cejudo is too old and knockout-dependent, and Song is younger, harder hitting, and more durable. He notes that Cejudo's last decision win was a robbery over Demetrious Johnson and that he slows down in later rounds. However, Zane expresses disappointment that Song likely won't show any new skills, as he expects a win that teaches nothing new.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 74 of 172 | 43% | 167 of 273 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 29 of 78 | 37% | 54 of 106 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 42 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 36 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:53 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 49 of 94 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 24 of 62 | 38% | 76 of 120 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 74 of 172 | 43% | 44 of 128 | 20 of 34 | 10 of 10 | 51 of 134 | 13 of 24 | 10 of 14 |
| Henry Cejudo | 29 of 78 | 37% | 13 of 54 | 5 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 24 of 68 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Henry Cejudo | 11 of 20 | 55% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 34 of 78 | 43% | 22 of 61 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 |
| Henry Cejudo | 9 of 29 | 31% | 6 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 24 of 62 | 38% | 13 of 45 | 7 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 47 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
| Henry Cejudo | 9 of 29 | 31% | 3 of 19 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.
Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.
Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.
Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.
The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 135 of 210 | 64% | 186 of 261 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 99 of 174 | 56% | 143 of 219 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 29 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 31 of 53 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 26 of 29 | 89% | 45 of 48 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 38 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 36 of 52 | 69% | 52 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 24 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 31 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 35 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 135 of 210 | 64% | 51 of 112 | 50 of 60 | 34 of 38 | 103 of 174 | 24 of 28 | 8 of 8 |
| Henry Cejudo | 99 of 174 | 56% | 35 of 99 | 30 of 37 | 34 of 38 | 82 of 152 | 16 of 21 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 20 of 34 | 58% | 5 of 15 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 |
| Henry Cejudo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 29 of 55 | 52% | 10 of 33 | 11 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 28 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Henry Cejudo | 31 of 53 | 58% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 11 | 14 of 16 | 29 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 26 of 29 | 89% | 12 of 15 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Henry Cejudo | 15 of 29 | 51% | 7 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 36 of 52 | 69% | 11 of 25 | 13 of 14 | 12 of 13 | 27 of 42 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Henry Cejudo | 19 of 33 | 57% | 7 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 24 of 40 | 60% | 13 of 24 | 5 of 9 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 34 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Henry Cejudo | 27 of 41 | 65% | 8 of 21 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cejudo (-115), Sterling (-105)
Round 1
This one is for all the marbles, and a fair amount of divisional glory as well. Sterling (22-3, 14-3 UFC) will be trying to set the UFC bantamweight record by notching his third successful title defense, while Cejudo (16-2, 10-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to get his old belt back. The winner of this pairing will elevate themselves in the all-time rankings at bantamweight, and they will have 25 minutes to figure it out. Like the legion of fans in the Prudential Center, referee Herb Dean is excited for how this one will play out. The fighters share a stern glove touch, and let the games begin. Sterling comes out aggressively, and he leads the dance with an early head kick. They clash shins at the same time, and Sterling recovers and kicks the leg. Cejudo ignores a few low kicks and backs away when Sterling leaps at him with a flying knee. Cejudo dodges a body kick, and he counters with a right hand. Sterling stalks him down and reaches out with a swatting right up high and left to the body. Cejudo tries to catch leg, and he elects to snatch up a body lock and easily take the champ to the mat. Sterling sits up against the wall, and Cejudo holds on in half guard until Sterling sets up butterfly hooks. Cejudo drops down to grab hold of a guillotine choke with Sterling on his knees, and Sterling breaks the grip but is holding Sterling’s head down. Sterling explodes to his feet, and he eats a leg kick and a right hand on the way. Sterling loads up with a body kick, and Cejudo catches it and whiffs with a huge right hand. Sterling snipes him with his superior range, and Cejudo pushes forward into a clinch. Sterling considers a level change, and Cejudo staves it off and again presses on the back of Sterling’s neck to keep him low. They stand up, and Sterling hunts for a single-leg with Cejudo against the cage. The crowd opens up with chants for “Henry” despite Sterling the fighter from the area, and Sterling manages to take that energy and muscle the ex-champ down to his knees. Sterling cannot keep him down or take his back, and he slams a few knees to the side before Cejudo stands. Sterling hits a mat return, and he snatches up back control and gets one hook in. Cejudo looks to break up the leg wrap, and Sterling knees his man in the thigh a few times and swings with a huge punch right before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 2
Cejudo starts off the second frame with a calf kick, and Sterling greets him with sharp jab and a body kick. Sterling jumps with a switch kick that lands on the shoulder, and Cejudo is still trying to find his distance. Cejudo connects with a calf kick, and Sterling shoots in on him. Sterling shoulder rolls a few punches, and he sticks Cejudo with a straight left. They trade low kicks, and Sterling catches a kick only to get caught with an uppercut to let it go. Cejudo presses the action and shocks Sterling with a head kick, and the champion reels and reaches out with a right hook. Sterling pushes out a front kick, turns to dodge a head kick, and he intercepts Cejudo with a knee to the guts. Sterling surprises his foe with a left hook when faking with a front kick, and he throws kicks to all targets to fluster the ex-flyweight. Sterling shoots in for a takedown, and Cejudo stops it in its tracks with ease. Sterling gets in a left hand, and when Cejudo counters, Sterling is there to catch him with a strike and be out of harm’s way in time. Cejudo puts some mustard into an overhand right, and Sterling jukes and keeps moving. “Funk Master” retains his awkward movement and strange angles, and this allows him to take most of the steam out of the heavy strikes Cejudo throws. Cejudo backs his man up with a straight right to the pectorals, and Sterling spins him around with a calf kick. Cejudo walks into a left hand, and he tries to hop forward with a hook only to get backed off. Sterling quickly spins with an elbow, and Cejudo looks for answers and loads up on a power right. When Sterling ducks away, Cejudo nearly dislodges his dome with a head kick. Sterling slides away and gets a straight left out, and he keeps a high guard to blow what comes back immediately. Sterling digs a punch to the body, and Cejudo replies with a few punches up top. Sterling kicks the side, and Cejudo looks for a takedown only to get shut down. Cejudo wings a monster right hand, and Sterling brushes past it and looks to trip Cejudo down. The wild scramble allows Cejudo to land on top, but the round ends before anything comes from it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 3
Cejudo practically comes out sprinting from his corner, and the two engage in a series of leg kicks. Cejudo breaks this up with one to the ribcage, and Sterling ducks down with a jab. Cejudo times a perfect flying knee that skims off the top of the head, and Sterling drops down to shoot in for a takedown. Cejudo sprawls perfectly and is pushed down to the floor, with no submission or anything from Cejudo. “The Messenger” lets him back up, and Sterling thanks him with a big right hand. Sterling shoots for another takedown, and this time, Cejudo makes him pay for this try with a stern knee. Sterling pursues another from a different angle, and Cejudo defends it and turns his foe around to push him to the fence. Sterling gets off a short knee while they jockey for position, and Sterling trips out a leg and drops Cejudo to the floor. Sterling sneaks his right leg in for a potential hook, and Cejudo hangs onto Sterling’s left arm but cannot keep the gold medalist grounded. Sterling lets him up so that he can smash Cejudo in the face with a clean knee, and he aims one more to the body. Sterling looks for another takedown entry, and Cejudo tosses him out of the way. Sterling lands a left, and Cejudo replies with a right and sprawls to stop a naked takedown. Cejudo nearly circles around to the side, and Sterling answers by switching up for a single. Cejudo keeps his chest pressed on the back of Sterling’s head to stop the takedown from getting anywhere, and he hammers Sterling with a punch before waving Sterling back up. Sterling obliges and they trade body kicks. Sterling fires off a one-two into a level change, and Cejudo stops it but absorbs a pair of flush knees to the torso. Cejudo hits a trip, plopping Sterling on his back with seconds to spare, and he rides out the remainder of the round in the guard.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Round 4
The championship rounds are upon them, and Sterling scores a few low kicks to start them off. Sterling swings a left hand, and Cejudo answers with a leg kick. The champ measures a kick to the side, and he loads up with another. Cejudo tries to fire back a low kick, and Sterling strikes the same spot and then has one calf kick checked. Cejudo blocks one and lunges forward, with a right hand connecting before Sterling is able to escape. Sterling sits down on a leg kick, and he follows with a right hand. Cejudo steps in with a knee and two punches, and these two are striking tit-for-tat one after the other. Sterling stings the calf with a shin, prompting Cejudo to charge at him with his fists out to clinch up. Cejudo cannot keep him tied up, and he tosses him away and catches a kick to release a left hand over the top. Sterling sticks out a jab and fails for a takedown, and he nails the calf with another kick. Sterling snaps the head back courtesy of a sharp jab, and Cejudo walks through a kick on his calf to consider a takedown. Sterling breaks free and aims a punch high and a kick low. Cejudo fakes a takedown and walks Sterling down to smack him with a shovel uppercut, and Sterling knees him in the liver. Cejudo grabs the raised leg but cannot elevate him, and Sterling turns the corner and knees his foe in the body. Cejudo whips Sterling around and uses a head lock to drag Sterling to the mat. Sterling pushes through to attack a double, and Cejudo does a whole split but cannot stop Sterling from taking him down. Sterling laces up the leg and lands a few right hands, and Cejudo bursts back up and gets slugged in the chops before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 5
Sterling points at the ground and says “Let’s go” to start off the last round, and the bantamweights meet in the middle of the cage for five more minutes of combat. Cejudo charges, ignoring a leg kick and launching one up high off the shoulder. Sterling slaps another calf kick to the swollen leg of his opponent, and Cejudo blocks one to his liver to follow. Sterling circles on the outside to avoid the looping strikes of his opponent, and Cejudo steps in with a solid body kick. Sterling gives two right back, and he whiffs on a big right hand. Cejudo charges recklessly, face-first into a right hand, but he pays it no mind as he strikes the side with his shin. Cejudo is pressuring aggressively, and Sterling backs him away with a few punches and a high kick. Cejudo scores a right hand as he comes in, and the fans rain down cheers for “Henry” again. Sterling spins with a back kick as Cejudo is kicking low, breaking up this attack. Cejudo stuns the champ with a left hand, and Sterling blinks it out and fights off a single. Cejudo lets it go and cracks Sterling with a right hand and follows it with a leg kick. Sterling reaches out with a right that misses the mark, and he boots the liver as Cejudo takes a look at the clock. Sterling slips a punch and sticks a straight left out, and Cejudo absorbs a calf kick and stuffs a takedown. Cejudo knees the body a few times and looks to follow it with an uppercut, and Sterling rolls with a punch and gets tied up. Sterling backs away from the advancing Cejudo, who grabs hold of a single and lifts Sterling’s leg in the air. Sterling topples down to his seat, but he powers right back up to his feet with Cejudo holding on from behind. Sterling tries to break the grip, and he spins around to get tied up. Cejudo lets go with clinch punches and knees, and the fight has reached its conclusion. It might go either way, possibly depending on the scoring of the second round. In victory, Sterling becomes the first bantamweight champion in UFC history to record three consecutive title defenses. One of the most underappreciated champs in the company is received by a series of boos, but Sterling lets it slide off like water off a duck’s back.
The defending champ calls out Sean O’Malley for his next challenge, and O’Malley enters the cage wearing a jacket reminiscent of “Thriller” by Michael Jackson. O’Malley steps right up to Sterling’s face and constantly repeats the line “you better do better than that.” UFC head Dana White gets between them, and Sterling calls for O’Malley to be removed from his cage. O’Malley approaches Sterling’s teammate, Merab Dvalishvili, who grabs his jacket, puts it on himself and runs away. Sterling is ready to go help out his teammate should a skirmish break out, with O’Malley hurling expletives and middle fingers until his red coat is returned. The security prevents anything bad from arising, and Sterling takes the mic again and tells O’Malley that they will fight in September. After this cools down, Cejudo is given the microphone, and he removes his gloves. Cejudo expresses his disappointment for the close fight, but holds no ill will towards the man that defeated him. Quoting “Talladega Nights,” Cejudo states that “If I’m not first, I’m last” and says this might be the last time he competes. If he fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (49-46 Sterling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Henry Cejudo via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling despite acknowledging asterisks on his title wins (illegal knee, split decision, TJ Dillashaw with one arm). He believes Sterling's size and activity will be decisive, as Sterling is a weight bully and has been fighting consistently while Cejudo returns after three years. Angelo is rooting for Cejudo but thinks the layoff and cardio questions are too much to overcome. He notes Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but doubts he can take down the much larger Sterling.
Big Brady picks Sterling due to activity, youth, volume, and size advantages. He notes Cejudo's three-year layoff is a major concern, especially at lower weight classes. He acknowledges that if prime Cejudo shows up, he should win, but he's not confident in that. He mentions Sterling's reach and height advantages and that Sterling is in his prime training with Merab Dvalishvili. He says this is his least confident pick on the card and he's likely not betting it.
Cody acknowledges the massive question marks around Henry Cejudo's three-year layoff and whether he can replicate his past success. He gives Sterling advantages in speed, striking, grappling, and recent experience, but notes that Cejudo's constant pressure could exploit Sterling's tendency to fade in later rounds. He suggests playing Sterling live after the first round for a better price rather than betting pre-fight, and only as a small play if nothing else on the card jumps out.
Connor leans toward Cejudo, citing raw speed as a major factor and noting that Cejudo is the fastest fighter Sterling has faced since Marlon Moraes. He believes Cejudo's pressure and willingness to take risks will be effective, and that Cejudo will land the bigger shots. Connor acknowledges the age and ring rust concerns but is willing to take that flyer.
The host believes Henry Cejudo's speed, explosiveness, and defensive grappling will be too much for Aljamain Sterling. He notes that Cejudo is difficult to take down and control, and his calf kicks and power punching could be key. He expects Cejudo to win by knockout in the third or fourth round, assuming he hasn't regressed too much from the layoff.
Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning, noting that while Cejudo could return like Jon Jones or GSP, the three-year layoff is a major unknown. He highlights Sterling's seven-inch reach advantage and massive speed advantage from training with Rob Font. He says it's 'algermane or pass' for him but doesn't feel he has an edge betting-wise, so he likely won't place a bet.
The Guru leans toward Sterling, citing Cejudo's three-year layoff and age (36) as major factors. He believes Sterling's reach and height advantages will allow him to pick at Cejudo from range with front kicks and jabs. He also notes that Cejudo's wrestling may be neutralized by Sterling's body triangle, which can burn rounds. However, he admits it's a 50-50 fight and hopes Cejudo wins for entertainment, showing low confidence.
Zane picks Sterling, noting that he always starts strong with a clear game plan and is underrated for his toughness and resilience. He highlights Sterling's high output, body work, and weapons like knees and uppercuts to counter shorter fighters. Zane acknowledges the risk of Sterling getting caught or fading late, but believes Sterling's grappling danger and ability to take Cejudo's back are key advantages.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 1 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 56 of 86 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 33 of 81 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 1 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 53 of 83 | 63% | 24 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 23 of 25 | 44 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 11 |
| Dominick Cruz | 33 of 81 | 40% | 15 of 58 | 8 of 11 | 10 of 12 | 31 of 78 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 19 of 29 | 65% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Dominick Cruz | 14 of 29 | 48% | 4 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 34 of 54 | 62% | 21 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 8 of 10 |
| Dominick Cruz | 19 of 52 | 36% | 11 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.
Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.
Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 90 of 171 | 52% | 99 of 182 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 57 of 119 | 47% | 59 of 121 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 38 of 84 | 45% | 41 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 31 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 53 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 90 of 171 | 52% | 73 of 150 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 45 of 118 | 19 of 23 | 26 of 30 |
| Marlon Moraes | 57 of 119 | 47% | 35 of 89 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 22 | 54 of 116 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 5 of 22 | 22% | 3 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Moraes | 16 of 37 | 43% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 14 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 38 of 84 | 45% | 31 of 75 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 70 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Moraes | 31 of 59 | 52% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 47 of 65 | 72% | 39 of 56 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 30 |
| Marlon Moraes | 10 of 23 | 43% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 18 of 23 | 78% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 17 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 18 of 23 | 78% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 17 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 81 of 134 | 60% | 121 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 51 of 147 | 34% | 80 of 178 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 4 of 29 | 13% | 4 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 30 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 32 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 4 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 22 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 5 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 81 of 134 | 60% | 23 of 62 | 19 of 21 | 39 of 51 | 73 of 125 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 51 of 147 | 34% | 29 of 116 | 18 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 31 of 120 | 17 of 22 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 21 of 32 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 16 | 20 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 4 of 29 | 13% | 4 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 15 of 29 | 51% | 4 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 13 | 14 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 11 of 33 | 33% | 5 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 20 of 28 | 71% | 5 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 17 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 10 of 30 | 33% | 6 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Henry Cejudo | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | |
| 5 | Henry Cejudo | 16 of 27 | 59% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 17 of 36 | 47% | 9 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Dominick Cruz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 3 | 61 of 156 | 39% | 63 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 92 of 249 | 36% | 100 of 259 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 1 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 29 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 19 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 32 of 78 | 41% | 32 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 28 of 80 | 35% | 28 of 80 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 4 | Marlon Vera | 2 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 61 of 156 | 39% | 35 of 121 | 13 of 21 | 13 of 14 | 54 of 146 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 4 |
| Dominick Cruz | 92 of 249 | 36% | 54 of 193 | 16 of 32 | 22 of 24 | 89 of 245 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 9 of 33 | 27% | 4 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Dominick Cruz | 21 of 61 | 34% | 12 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 19 of 52 | 36% | 9 of 40 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 32 of 78 | 41% | 17 of 55 | 7 of 14 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 21 of 49 | 42% | 14 of 39 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 28 of 80 | 35% | 21 of 68 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marlon Vera | 12 of 22 | 54% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Cruz | 11 of 30 | 36% | 4 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-210), Cruz (+180)
Round 1
It’s main event time, with former champion Cruz looking to make one last run at the title in front of the home folks. In his way is Vera, who’s won three straight and has title aspirations of his own. Herb Dean will be the third man in the cage for the evening’s featured bout. Cruz comes out aggressive iwth a high kick followd by a combination. Cruz with a head kick followed by a straight right hand. Cruz kicks to the body as Vera remains calm. A hard low kick for Cruz finds the mark. Vera throws a front kick and Cruz catches it and throws him on the canvas. Vera is right back up. Vera counters a low kick with a left hand and drops Cruz. the former champ pops right back to his feet. Cruz pressures with a combination, then has a head kick blocked. Cruz is forcing the issue with combinations. Cruz feints a takedown and misses with an overhand. Vera misses a front kick and Cruz pressures with punches. Cruz lands a low kick. A front kick down the middle lands for Vera. Cruz again pushes forward with a combination followed by a head kick. Again, Cruz blitzes forward with punches. With less than a minute to go, Cruz executes a nicely-timed takedown. Cruz is in full guard, looking to create space for ground-and-pound. Vera threatens with a triangle and Cruz stands. The round ends with Cruz kicking at his opponent’s legs.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Round 2
Vera opens with a high kick but Cruz blocks it. Cruz with another blitz of punches and he follows up with a low kick. Cruz with a low kick followed by a right hand. Cruz chips at the legs and then rushes forward with punches. Cruz stays busy with kicks and then counters as Vera moves in. Vera avoids another flurry of punches, but Cruz lands a nice right to the body. Cruz is mixing things up nicely, keeping Vera off balance. Cruz lands a leg kick, but Vera avoids the follow up combination. Another low kick lands for Cruz, but he can’t find the range on the ensuing flurry of punches. Cruz with a right to the body. He goes body-head and lands both. Vera finds the mark on a right hook. Cruz with a straight right, then a front kick down the middle and another right hand. Cruz shoots with 30 seconds, but Vera sprawls. Cruz lands a jab and Vera just misses a head kick before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Round 3
Cruz kicks the leg and follows up with a punching combination. Another heavy leg kick draws a reaction from Vera. Cruz flurries and a counter from Vera backs him up. Cruz slips and lands a punch even while moving awkwardly. Vera moves forward and follows a double jab with a powerful right that drops Cruz. The ex champ is right back up, though. Cruz feints a takedown and eats a left hook for his efforts. Cruz’s movement may have slowed ever so slightly. Cruz shoots and Vera sprawls on it and tags Cruz with a left. Cruz lands a jab and moves forward with punches. Vera jabs in response. Cruz’s volume isn’t quite what it was in earlier rounds. He lands a left and Vera answers with a body kick. Vera stuffs a takedown against the fence and lands some elbows to the side of the head. Cruz gives up and they’re back at range. Vera lans a jab before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 4
Vera eludes Cruz’s punches and the stuffs a takedown. A right from Cruz makes Vera stumble back but it’s more of a slip than anything. Cruz with a right to the body. A stiff left jab catches Cruz coming forward and sits him down. Cruz is up in a hurry but it’s the third knockdown of the night for Vera. Once again, Cruz isn’t landing with the volume he did early.
Cruz darts in and then dips his head off to the side. Vera is waiting for it, and he catches Cruz with a perfectly-timed head kick on the chin. Cruz faceplants into the canvas as a result of the blow. Vera follows up with three mostly unnecessary ground shots before Dean dives in to save Cruz
, who looks like his nose is badly damaged. That’s four in a row for Vera, whose power was on display throughout the fight.
The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Dominick Cruz via KO (Head Kick and Punches) R4 2:17
Angelo picks Dominick Cruz but is on the fence. He notes Cruz's movement and striking defense make him hard to hit, and he can win by mixing in takedowns. However, Vera has devastating power and an iron chin, and Cruz may not be able to avoid damage for five rounds. Angelo compares to the Frankie Edgar fight where Edgar outstruck Vera and got takedowns but still got knocked out. He might change his pick.
Big Brady picks Marlon Vera to win by late knockout, likely in the fourth round. He notes that Vera is a slow starter but becomes a savage in the championship rounds, as seen against Rob Font. Cruz is 37, with declining durability and speed, and was dropped in his last fight. Vera lands the harder shots and has knockdown power. Brady expects Vera to eventually land something big and finish Cruz.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Marlon Vera. He emphasizes Vera's durability and tenacity in five-round fights, noting he often loses the first round but builds momentum. Cody believes Vera's leg kicks will stifle Cruz's movement and that judges favor damage over volume. He also suggests live betting Vera after he loses the first round.
Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, emphasizing that Vera is a slow starter but excels in championship rounds. He notes Vera's iron chin, finishing ability (most finishes in bantamweight history), and the importance of calf kicks to slow Cruz's movement. Levi believes Cruz will have early success but fade as the fight progresses, and Vera will either finish or win a clear decision. He also mentions that Vera's boxing has improved under Jason Parillo.
The host is emphatic about Cruz, citing his wrestling advantage and high fight IQ. He notes that Cruz has landed 55 takedowns at a 43% clip since his WEC days, while Vera is not known for takedown defense. He believes people are overlooking Cruz's grappling and that the fight won't be a 25-minute kickboxing match. He also mentions Cruz's movement and ability to roll with kicks, referencing the Pedro Munoz fight where Cruz survived heavy leg kicks. He is confident that at plus money, Cruz is the value play.
Paul picks Marlon Vera, noting that while Cruz may out-volume him early, Vera lands the more impactful strikes. He points out that Cruz has been knocked down in his last four fights and is getting older. Paul thinks Vera's leg kicks will slow Cruz's mobility, and he prefers to bet Vera live after round one or two rather than at the -230 moneyline.
The host picks Marlon Vera by fourth-round submission (d'arce choke). He expects Cruz to win the first two rounds but fade as Vera's leg kicks and pressure accumulate. He predicts Vera will hurt Cruz, sprawl on a takedown, and choke him out. He emphasizes Vera's size and reach advantages, and notes Cruz's injury history and lack of power compared to other Vera opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 1 | 74 of 170 | 43% | 79 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 103 of 274 | 37% | 105 of 276 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 1 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 35 of 113 | 30% | 35 of 113 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 26 of 68 | 38% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 43 of 110 | 39% | 45 of 112 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 74 of 170 | 43% | 45 of 128 | 10 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 73 of 168 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 103 of 274 | 37% | 79 of 240 | 13 of 23 | 11 of 11 | 100 of 270 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 21 of 45 | 46% | 14 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 27 of 57 | 47% | 12 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 35 of 113 | 30% | 30 of 105 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 111 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 26 of 68 | 38% | 19 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 26 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 43 of 110 | 39% | 31 of 93 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 110 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.
Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 89 of 202 | 44% | 115 of 229 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 74 of 193 | 38% | 74 of 193 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 36 of 82 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 27 of 64 | 42% | 53 of 91 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 89 of 202 | 44% | 51 of 151 | 24 of 35 | 14 of 16 | 85 of 197 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Casey Kenney | 74 of 193 | 38% | 41 of 148 | 10 of 19 | 23 of 26 | 72 of 191 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 26 of 56 | 46% | 10 of 29 | 7 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 23 of 63 | 36% | 9 of 46 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 22 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 36 of 82 | 43% | 24 of 70 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 33 of 73 | 45% | 21 of 55 | 1 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 27 of 64 | 42% | 17 of 52 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Casey Kenney | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 47 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing Cruz's wrestling advantage and Kenney's 56% takedown defense. He notes Cruz has not won since 2016 but faced elite competition, while Kenney has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but admits he doesn't feel great about it.
Daniel leans with Casey Kenney, citing Kenney's leg kicks from southpaw to slow Cruz's movement and his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Cruz's in-fight adjustments but believes Kenney's youth and style will edge a decision.
Cruz's footwork and experience could trouble Kenney, who may struggle to land his body kicks. The host notes Cruz's durability and wrestling background, but is not confident enough to bet. He predicts Cruz wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog. He argues Cruz had a full camp and hand-picked Kenney, and that people judge him unfairly based on the short-notice Cejudo fight. He believes Cruz's footwork, size, and experience will lead to a 30-27 unanimous decision, and that Cruz can even get takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 1 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 56 of 86 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 33 of 81 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 1 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 53 of 83 | 63% | 24 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 23 of 25 | 44 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 11 |
| Dominick Cruz | 33 of 81 | 40% | 15 of 58 | 8 of 11 | 10 of 12 | 31 of 78 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 19 of 29 | 65% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Dominick Cruz | 14 of 29 | 48% | 4 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 34 of 54 | 62% | 21 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 8 of 10 |
| Dominick Cruz | 19 of 52 | 36% | 11 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.
Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.
Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 88 of 291 | 30% | 95 of 298 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Dominick Cruz | 2 | 68 of 195 | 34% | 71 of 198 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 19 of 60 | 31% | 19 of 60 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 20 of 70 | 28% | 20 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 4 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Cruz | 2 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 5 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 12 of 57 | 21% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 88 of 291 | 30% | 58 of 250 | 9 of 14 | 21 of 27 | 88 of 291 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 68 of 195 | 34% | 47 of 164 | 11 of 17 | 10 of 14 | 66 of 190 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 50 | 40% | 9 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 12 of 38 | 31% | 5 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 19 of 60 | 31% | 11 of 47 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 16 of 45 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 70 | 28% | 16 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 17 of 46 | 36% | 16 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 16 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Cody Garbrandt | 17 of 54 | 31% | 15 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 15 of 47 | 31% | 11 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Cody Garbrandt | 12 of 57 | 21% | 7 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Cruz | 8 of 19 | 42% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 1 | 87 of 261 | 33% | 99 of 275 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 3:24 |
| Urijah Faber | 0 | 34 of 159 | 21% | 49 of 174 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 19 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:53 |
| Urijah Faber | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 15 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 1 | 21 of 58 | 36% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Urijah Faber | 0 | 6 of 29 | 20% | 6 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 21 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Urijah Faber | 0 | 10 of 40 | 25% | 10 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Urijah Faber | 0 | 7 of 44 | 15% | 7 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 17 of 57 | 29% | 18 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Urijah Faber | 0 | 7 of 33 | 21% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 87 of 261 | 33% | 62 of 223 | 8 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 77 of 243 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 8 |
| Urijah Faber | 34 of 159 | 21% | 26 of 142 | 6 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 147 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Urijah Faber | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 21 of 58 | 36% | 13 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Urijah Faber | 6 of 29 | 20% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 21 of 65 | 32% | 16 of 55 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Urijah Faber | 10 of 40 | 25% | 6 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dominick Cruz | 18 of 57 | 31% | 14 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Urijah Faber | 7 of 44 | 15% | 5 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dominick Cruz | 17 of 57 | 29% | 14 of 51 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Urijah Faber | 7 of 33 | 21% | 6 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 109 of 408 | 26% | 130 of 430 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 112 of 302 | 37% | 122 of 312 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 19 of 87 | 21% | 26 of 94 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 21 of 62 | 33% | 21 of 62 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 16 of 79 | 20% | 17 of 80 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 18 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 19 of 77 | 24% | 19 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 19 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 4 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 22 of 70 | 31% | 35 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 34 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 33 of 95 | 34% | 33 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 30 of 76 | 39% | 30 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 109 of 408 | 26% | 64 of 343 | 22 of 39 | 23 of 26 | 102 of 394 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 112 of 302 | 37% | 97 of 282 | 9 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 107 of 294 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 19 of 87 | 21% | 9 of 73 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 83 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 21 of 62 | 33% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 16 of 79 | 20% | 11 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 17 of 52 | 32% | 14 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 19 of 77 | 24% | 9 of 65 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 19 of 54 | 35% | 17 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Dominick Cruz | 22 of 70 | 31% | 15 of 58 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 63 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 25 of 58 | 43% | 21 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dominick Cruz | 33 of 95 | 34% | 20 of 74 | 7 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 32 of 93 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 30 of 76 | 39% | 28 of 73 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 26 of 35 | 74% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Takeya Mizugaki | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 26 of 35 | 74% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Takeya Mizugaki | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 26 of 35 | 74% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 26 |
| Takeya Mizugaki | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 26 of 35 | 74% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 26 |
| Takeya Mizugaki | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.
Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.
Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.
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