Career Averages - Francis Ngannou
Career Averages - Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Francis Ngannou - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 43 of 104 | 41% | 71 of 139 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 1 | 8:29 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 63 of 91 | 69% | 79 of 107 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 3 | 0 | 2:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 4 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 15 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 16 of 17 | 94% | 18 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:44 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 43 of 104 | 41% | 9 of 56 | 21 of 33 | 13 of 15 | 34 of 87 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 7 |
| Ciryl Gane | 63 of 91 | 69% | 15 of 32 | 20 of 29 | 28 of 30 | 57 of 84 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 12 of 31 | 38% | 3 of 18 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ciryl Gane | 15 of 20 | 75% | 4 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Francis Ngannou | 10 of 27 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ciryl Gane | 19 of 33 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 4 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Francis Ngannou | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 |
| Ciryl Gane | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Francis Ngannou | 7 of 13 | 53% | 0 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ciryl Gane | 16 of 17 | 94% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 11 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Francis Ngannou | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Ciryl Gane | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Former teammates collide in the UFC 270 main event, which comes in the form of a heavyweight championship unification battle. Ngannou (16-3, 11-2 UFC) will come in on a five-fight knockout streak that includes victories over three of the last five champions to hold the heavyweight strap before him, while Gane (10-0, 7-0 UFC) is a spotless 10 up and none down as he continues his quest for the undisputed belt. A bit of bad blood infiltrated the matchup due to a dispute about old sparring footage, but they still do elect to touch gloves as a prepared referee Herb Dean stands firm as the Octagon sentinel. Ngannou takes the center of the cage and starts to pressure Gane, only for Gane to rush in and pursue a takedown that gets stopped. The close range of Gane allows him to avoid the power shots, but when Ngannou gets backed up across the cage to the wall, he gets off a high knee. Gane pushes off and retreats, keeping a safe distance and kicking and Ngannou’s lead knee – both of the champ’s knees have braces on them. Ngannou closes in with a big punch, and he blocks a rising knee from Gane as they are tied up in the center of the cage. Gane gets some space with a short elbow, but Ngannou walks him down and delivers a painful uppercut up the middle that stuns Gane for a moment. Gane regains his composure and backs off, but he gets clipped with an uppercut, Gane escapes out the edge and evades most of the power punches that come his way, and he spins with a kick to the body. Ngannou walks him down, but Gane is light on his feet and staying away. Gane steps in suddenly with a knee before breaking away to get into a safe range, and he does so just when Ngannou loads up on a right hand. “The Predator” stalks his prey, only to come up short with a looping right hand. Ngannou kicks the knee and comes up high, and Gane pushes it off and ends in grappling range with the champ. Ngannou flirts with a takedown effort, but he abandons the try to knee Gane in the chest. “Bon Gamin” turns him about on the wall, staying tightly pressed to Ngannou so as to not absorb any short but powerful shots. Gane clings to his opponent, stifling Ngannou for a moment, but Ngannou still manages to land a knee and an uppercut as Gane pushes off. Ngannou marches ahead, and they stare down one another as the round comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to start off the second frame, and Gane leads off with a front kick that splits the guard. Ngannou mimics the blow with one of his own, and it gets swatted away. Ngannou is continually advancing as Gane is light on his feet with his hands low, so Ngannou kicks him in the thigh a few times with the ball of his foot. Gane then turns to side kick Ngannou in the knee, and darts away before Ngannou can get in on him. This does not stop Ngannou from trying, and when he misses, Gane chips away at his lead leg from a distance. Ngannou lifts up a high kick, and he then goes low with a stomping kick to the knee. Gane sticks out a jab, and his mobility keeps him away from the swinging shots that come at him. Ngannou eats a clean right hand that glances off the side of his ear, and he appears no worse for wear as he plods forward. Ngannou swings with a huge right hand, and the power is there but the accuracy is not, so Gane ducks it without concern. The punch leads Ngannou to tie him up, and he breaks off and misses by an inch with an overhand right. Gane picks and pokes Ngannou with low kicks before spinning with a wheel kick that clocks Ngannou in the top of the head. “The Predator” barely registers that the strike landed, and he continues to march ahead to line up a missile of a right hand. Ngannou kicks at the leg, and he absorbs one that comes back at him and makes him lift his leg up. Gane is loose and has his hands very low given the opponent staring across from him, and he relies on his movement to not let Ngannou get a hold of him. Ngannou sits down on a body kick, one that sneaks under Gane’s blocking elbow. Gane bounces around as Ngannou slowly aims for a big strike, and he walks face-first into a powerful uppercut that knocks Gane back but does not hurt him. The Frenchman gathers himself and delivers a kick on the outside of Ngannou’s leg, and then goes with the other leg to the midsection. Ngannou checks one more kick as the round comes to an end, and the crowd is not overly thrilled with the pace of these two big men.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Round 3
The big gentlemen meet in the middle, only for Gane to give ground immediately and back off. Gane keeps his hand up and his fingers outstretched in hopes that he can anticipate a power strike from Ngannou and block it. Ngannou secures a short uppercut on the chin, but whiffs badly on the power left hand. Gane sees another powerful left hand come at him, and he darts away and kicks Ngannou in the side. “The Predator” is enraged by this kick, and he lifts a 250-pound Gane up in the air like a sack of potatoes and slams him down to the mat with emphasis. Ngannou lands in side control, and he is heavily positioned on top and does not let Gane twist and turn. Gane ends up surrendering mount as he tries to scramble, and he turns over to give up his back in the process. Ngannou starts dropping down a few sledgehammers in the form of his ground-and-pound, and when Gane walks his way to his knees, Ngannou trips him back down. Gane is able to defend his face from punishment, standing up safely and getting up against the wall. Ngannou deftly throws Gane down to the mat, face-first, in what appears to be a painful slam. “Bon Gamin” does not seem concerned, calmly working his way up to his feet. As Gane is composed in the clinch, he smoothly breaks the grip and spins around to elbow Ngannou in the face. Ngannou eats the Frenchman’s spinning elbow like a baguette, and he continues to lumber forward and narrowly evades a spinning wheel kick that grazes his hair. Ngannou pursues his man and loads up on a punch to the body, only to change levels and hit a double-leg takedown and ground the interim titleholder. Gane tries to defend off his back with a kimura, but there is nothing there. The champ rides out the round on top without landing strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Round 4
Ngannou stands right in the center of the cage to begin the fourth round, and he lifts his leg up to check a kick that comes at him. “Bon Gamin” gets off a jab and scampers away from the power strikes that are telegraphed and not coming at him as frequently. The pitter-patter leg kicks and jabs from Gane frustrate Ngannou but do not appear to have an appreciable effect, and the crowd lets the two have it. Ngannou continues to ignore leg kicks, and he absorbs a clean side kick to the body while missing on the right hand counter. Gane gets interrupted on the way in with a low kick, so he replies with a slapping kick to Ngannou’s face. Ngannou does not appear thrilled by the kick, leading him to blitz forward and set up a body lock. “The Predator” succeeds on a toss to plant Gane on the mat again, and Gane is effective at protecting his mug from damage although he does give up control time. Gane works his way up to his knee and stand, but Ngannou trips him back down in a sneaky mat return. The Frenchman maneuvers his way up, and he pursues a standing kimura when Ngannou wrenches his legs out beneath him and puts Gane down again. Ngannou steps over to mount, and he loses it when Gane nearly sits up and out of it. Gane finds himself on his back, with a 260-ish pound Ngannou on top of him relying more on pressure than ground strikes. Gane sits up against the fence, and Ngannou knees him square in the chest in a very risky maneuver. Gane is struggling to stand as Ngannou is tightly pinned to him, and the champion holds him down to end the fourth frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Round 5
The champ and interim champ meet in the middle for one final touch of gloves. Gane backs away, and he steps in with a cheeky elbow that catches Ngannou clean. Gane lands a punch that makes Ngannou backpedal for a moment, and Gane stands right in front of him and kicks him in the leg and punches him in the body. Gane rushes ahead with a short combination, and Ngannou chows down on it like a steak. When Ngannou swings with a big punch, Gane ducks down and hits a takedown to plant the champion flat on his back. Ngannou looks to sit up, but he miraculously hits a sweep and turns Gane over to put him on his back. Gane defends effectively by dropping down with a heel hook, and Ngannou grimaces but grits it out to not allow Gane to sit up and get on top. Ngannou pops his leg out, and Gane goes for another that is not under the knee, so it is not as dangerous as the first. Like a snake, “The Predator” slithers over to re-take top control, sliding up to half guard and nearly claiming mount. Ngannou begins to set up an arm-triangle choke, but he does not present any other offense as Dean tells them to keep working. Gane sits up, allowing Ngannou to defend with a potential guillotine choke to sit him back down. The Frenchman keeps moving off his back, scooting his way towards the wall, and Ngannou pushes him back over as precious seconds tick off the clock. Gane is furious that he is being held down, and Ngannou finally lets a few punches go to end the fight on top. Some may be surprised that this fight went the distance, but
many
would be surprised that it was Ngannou that leaned on wrestling and effectively controlled Gane for long stretches of the fight. The bout in the books after 25 grueling minutes, the two men embrace and appear to have squashed the potentially manufactured beef. When Buffer announces the winner, it is not UFC President Dana White but matchmaker Mick Maynard that is in the cage to place the belt around the winner’s waist.
In his post-fight interview, Ngannou tells the crowd that he went through a great deal in this training camp, and three weeks ago, he completely tore his MCL tendon and hurt his ACL as well. Ngannou expresses his love for his home country and the fans, and tells the crowd that boxing is always in his back pocket but not an immediate goal for him. With that, UFC 270 is in the books, and the organization is taking a week off. When it comes back with UFC Fight Night 200 in February, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (48-47 Ngannou)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)
The Official Result
Francis Ngannou def. Ciryl Gane via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Ciryl Gane primarily due to contract negotiation factors, believing Ngannou may have motivation issues. He acknowledges Ngannou is the better fighter with power and takedown defense, but thinks Gane's only path is a decision. He notes the sparring footage where Gane's strikes didn't bother Ngannou.
Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, citing Gane's superior cardio, output, footwork, fight IQ, and defensive soundness. He acknowledges Ngannou's devastating power and the threat of a one-punch knockout, comparing it to the Derrick Lewis fight. He expects Gane to fight smart, stay at range, and avoid danger, similar to his performance against Rozenstruik. He notes that Ngannou has never won a fight past the second round and has never been knocked out, but believes Gane has more paths to victory.
Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior technique, footwork, cardio, and activity rate compared to Ngannou. He notes that Ngannou, despite his power, is 35 and fights infrequently, while Gane has gone five rounds and shown precision. Cody believes Gane's risk-averse style will allow him to avoid damage and tire Ngannou out in deeper waters. He also mentions the narrative that Ngannou may be distracted by contract disputes and a potential boxing career.
Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by knockout. He argues that Ngannou's power is generational and that Ciryl Gane has not faced anyone who can put him on the back foot. Levi notes that Gane drops his hands off kicks and leaves his chin exposed, and believes Ngannou's improved wrestling and fight IQ under Eric Nicksick will be key. He acknowledges Gane's elite movement but thinks Ngannou's power is a different level. Levi also mentions that Ngannou is in a great mental space and that the underdog price is too good to pass up.
The host believes Ciryl Gane's mastery of range management and ability to avoid significant strikes will be key. He notes that Gane has passed the 'heavyweight power punching gauntlet' against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Derrick Lewis, and now faces Ngannou. He expects Gane to use his southpaw stance, body work, and fight IQ to weather the early storm and finish Ngannou in the later rounds, possibly round 4 or 5. He also mentions that Ngannou's cardio is a concern and that Gane is the type of fighter who can exploit that.
Paul picks Francis Ngannou, arguing that Ngannou's power and speed combination gives him at least a 50-50 chance to knock out anyone. He acknowledges Gane's technical advantages and the big cage, but believes Ngannou's power carries into later rounds. Paul also mentions the narrative that Ngannou is motivated to prove himself and secure a better contract. He notes that Ngannou by KO is available at +175 and considers that a play.
The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane, calling him a future heavyweight GOAT. He praises Gane's technical striking, including oblique kicks, jabs, and leg kicks, which he believes will neutralize Ngannou's power. He notes Ngannou's distractions (contract disputes, movie appearances) and predicts a fourth-round TKO, as Gane's versatility and range management will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 12 of 13 | 92% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Stipe Miocic | 2 | 36 of 56 | 64% | 38 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 8 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Stipe Miocic | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 24 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stipe Miocic | 2 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 12 of 13 | 92% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stipe Miocic | 36 of 56 | 64% | 28 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 36 | 8 of 8 | 11 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 8 of 8 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stipe Miocic | 23 of 37 | 62% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | |
| 2 | Francis Ngannou | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stipe Miocic | 13 of 19 | 68% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Stipe Miocic to win by fifth-round TKO. He believes Stipe is the more well-rounded fighter with better cardio and fight IQ. He expects Stipe to survive the early rounds by clinching and attempting takedowns to tire Ngannou, then take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Ngannou only landed two significant strikes after the second round in their first fight. However, he acknowledges Ngannou's one-shot knockout power and says he would not bet the fight at current odds.
Cody backs Ngannou, citing his generational power and the fact that he has been training wrestling defense with Kamaru Usman. He believes Ngannou's strategy is to go out and kill his opponent early, and if he lands, it's over. He acknowledges the cardio concerns but thinks Ngannou's durability held up in the first fight and that he has improved mentally since the Lewis loss.
Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by first-round knockout. He emphasizes that Ngannou is now focused, has the right team, and has learned from his first fight with Stipe. He notes that Stipe has absorbed over 300 head strikes since their first fight, including a knockout loss, while Ngannou has taken minimal damage. Levi believes Ngannou's power and improved mental approach will lead to a violent finish.
The host believes Stipe Miocic will retain his title by third-round TKO. He notes that Stipe has improved his cardio and fight IQ since their first fight, as seen in the Cormier trilogy. He expects Stipe to use head movement, smart takedown entries to the weak side, and mix in grappling to wear down Ngannou, who he thinks will gas after a round and a half if he doesn't get the knockout. He compares the matchup to Lewis vs Blaydes and Gane vs Rozenstruik, where the more skilled fighter won. He advises that if backing Ngannou, take the KO prop because he won't win by decision.
Paul picks Stipe Miocic, emphasizing his wrestling advantage, cardio advantage, and later-round experience. He notes that Stipe has shown he can take Ngannou's punches and grind him down, as seen in the first fight. He also highlights Stipe's success in rematches, having avenged losses to JDS and Cormier. Paul is confident that if Ngannou doesn't knock him out early, Stipe will take over.
The Guru picks Stipe Miocic, emphasizing that Stipe has improved since the first fight: better footwork, cardio, wrestling, and clinch work from his camps against Daniel Cormier. He argues that Stipe's wrestling is the key difference, as he can take Ngannou down and control him, unlike other heavyweights who tried to stand and trade. He predicts Ngannou will be hesitant and gas out, leading to a TKO in the third or fourth round. He acknowledges the puncher's chance for Ngannou but relies on evidence over guesswork.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 1 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 1 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 5 of 5 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 5 of 5 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Francis Ngannou by first-round knockout, expecting him to land a hard punch early. He notes that if Ngannou doesn't get the knockout, Rozenstruik could win a decision due to Ngannou's low activity. He sees value in betting Rozenstruik but ultimately goes with Ngannou.
Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou, acknowledging the risk due to Rozenstruik's timing and power, but believes Ngannou is the better fighter with more tools. He suggests Ngannou should use a clinch and takedown game plan, as Rozenstruik's takedown defense is weak. Levi notes that Ngannou's confidence is high after three wins, unlike the Lewis fight, and expects a knockout.
Matt picks Rozenstruik as an underdog, believing the line at -270 for Ngannou is too wide. He notes Ngannou's rudimentary striking and reliance on power, while Rozenstruik has a wider arsenal and better kickboxing experience. He thinks if Rozenstruik can survive the early power, he can take over and finish Ngannou in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 1 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Junior dos Santos | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 1 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Junior dos Santos | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Junior dos Santos | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Junior dos Santos | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cain Velasquez | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cain Velasquez | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Cain Velasquez | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Cain Velasquez | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Ngannou | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 13 of 17 | 76% | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Ngannou | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 13 of 17 | 76% | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 11 of 46 | 23% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 20 of 54 | 37% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 11 of 46 | 23% | 7 of 39 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Ngannou | 20 of 54 | 37% | 1 of 26 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 10 | 18 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Ngannou | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 6 of 18 | 33% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Ngannou | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 4 of 21 | 19% | 1 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Ngannou | 11 of 24 | 45% | 0 of 8 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Ngannou creeps forward in the southpaw stance, testing the range with an outstretched hand, offering a few fakes. Neither heavyweight offers much of anything in the opening minute. Lewis, circling off his back foot, pauses and steps forward to counter an Ngannou low kick with a right hand. Ngannou switches to orthodox after Lewis throws a switch kick to the body. Lewis is being backed up to the fence, creating some space with kicks, then getting backed up again. Despite his constant forward pressure, Ngannou has done virtually nothing in terms of significant offense. Lewis tries a high single, gets shoved away by the "Predator," and the big men continue their stroll around the cage until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-10
Round 2
The boo birds are out early in round two, following another 60 seconds of incactivity from the heavyweights. Ninety seconds in, Lewis comes over the top with a glancing right hand, then tries to get hold of Ngannou's legs, only to be shoved away by the hulking Frenchman. Ngannou pressures Lewis backward to the fence until Lewis backs him up with a high switch kick. Ngannou switches between stances as he jumps around in front of the "Black Beast." A few leg kicks land for Lewis as the tepid pace continues. With 1:10 on the clock, referee Herb Dean finally intervenes, cautioning the fighters to engage or risk a point deduction. Lewis gets a bit busier after the restart, though not by much, and the final minute ticks away without incident.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-10
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-10
Round 3
It's more of the same as the final round begins, with another minute of nothing between the big men. Ngannou fires a quick left high kick from the southpaw stance, but Lewis gets a glove up to block it. Referee Dean calls for action again; Lewis grabs for a clinch or takedown and is shoved away. With two minutes left, Lewis counters a kick from Ngannou with a left hand that puts the "Predator" in reverse. Lewis ducks as he steps forward and puts a punch on Ngannou's body. Ngannou throws a high kick and winds up spinning around as Lewis ducks underneath. Down to the final 40 seconds, Lewis lands a body kick and slips his head off center to avoid Ngannou's left hand. Ngannou catches a kick and tries to take down Lewis in the final 10 seconds. With Lewis leaning forward, balancing on his hands, Ngannou lands a cheap shot after the horn, a fittingly ugly end to one of the worst fights you'll see this year.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Lewis (30-28 Lewis)
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis (30-27 Lewis)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Lewis (30-29 Lewis)
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Francis Ngannou via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stipe Miocic | 0 | 70 of 95 | 73% | 200 of 244 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 15:02 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 21 of 113 | 18% | 33 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stipe Miocic | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 24 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 15 of 62 | 24% | 18 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Stipe Miocic | 0 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 29 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 4 of 27 | 14% | 4 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Stipe Miocic | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 47 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 4 | Stipe Miocic | 0 | 18 of 21 | 85% | 82 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Stipe Miocic | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 | 1 of 13 | 7% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stipe Miocic | 70 of 95 | 73% | 45 of 67 | 9 of 11 | 16 of 17 | 37 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 37 |
| Francis Ngannou | 21 of 113 | 18% | 17 of 106 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 105 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stipe Miocic | 16 of 25 | 64% | 13 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Francis Ngannou | 15 of 62 | 24% | 14 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 55 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stipe Miocic | 17 of 24 | 70% | 7 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Francis Ngannou | 4 of 27 | 14% | 2 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stipe Miocic | 12 of 16 | 75% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Francis Ngannou | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Stipe Miocic | 18 of 21 | 85% | 15 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
| Francis Ngannou | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Stipe Miocic | 7 of 9 | 77% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Ngannou | 1 of 13 | 7% | 0 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 145 of 208 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:17 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 3 of 19 | 15% | 39 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 74 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 6 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 25 of 60 | 41% | 21 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 17 of 55 | 30% | 7 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 7 of 15 | 46% | 0 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 3 of 19 | 15% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 11 of 18 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 23 | 17% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Business picks up in the heavyweight division, where Pavlovich (18-3, 6-3 UFC) sets his sights on Rozenstruik (15-5, 9-5 UFC) in a three-round showcase. They have nine sub-minute finishes between them. Smith handles the refereeing duties. The former training partners are ready to go. They meet in the middle without a glove touch. Rozenstruik lands an inside leg kick. Pavlovich answers. The Russian paws with his jab, hoping to exploit his reach advantage. He follows a jab with a thudding overhand right but elects not to follow up. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Neither man looks to eager to throw midway through the round. Pavlovich flicks out his jab and steps forward behind another one-two. Rozenstruik rolls with it. Action somewhat tepid thus far. Low kicks from both men. Smith warns Pavlovich about extending his fingers. The Russian connects with an overhand right. Rozenstruik loses his balance while avoiding an overhand right and winds up on his back, pinned beneath his monstrous counterpart. Pavlovich works his ground-and-pound in half guard. Thirty seconds to go. Body-head shots from the Russian, who looks to have salted away this round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Round 2
And away we go for the second round. Rozenstruik feints a low kick and thinks better of it. Pavlovich probes with his jab. Rozenstruik down blocks a front kick to the body. Pavlovich resets, keeps his head and feet moving and hunts for potential openings. Again, neither man eager to throw. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Pavlovich steps forward with a left hook, then evades the return fire. Fans growing restless with the inactivity. Pavlovich connects with a counter right hook, drives forward and secures a takedown. He lands in half guard and throws his ground-and-pound into gear. Pavlovich swings his left hand into the Surinamese kickboxer’s head repeatedly, doing more than enough to avoid a restart. Rozenstruik going nowhere with less than a minute on the clock. Looks like he will head to the third round in a significant hole on the scorecards. Pavlovich peppers him with short punches until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Round 3
Rozenstruik likely needs a finish here. The flick jabs at one another. Pavlovich lands with a left hook. Smith asks for more action. They trade powerful left hooks. Neither man goes down. More jabs from both man. Pavlovich steps into a body lock behind an overhand right and secures a takedown. With three minutes to go, Rozenstruik’s situation has grown downright dire. He has shown no ability to get back to his feet thus far. Pavlovich works in half guard, scoring with left hands to the body and forearm strikes to the head. Rozenstruik still flat on his back at the base of his cage. Pavlovich staying busy, even though he has not yet landed anything of consequence. He mixes left hands to the body with rights to the head. Rozenstruik gets to his knees with a minute to go and finally gets back to his feet. They separate with 30 seconds on the clock. Pavlovich buckles his opponent with a counter left hook. Rozenstruik lunges in with a left hook, but the Hail Mary finish he seeks fails to materialize.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking and counter-striking ability. He notes that Sergei Pavlovich struggles against a jab, as seen in his loss to Volkov. He believes Rozenstruik's Muay Thai and patience will allow him to frustrate Pavlovich and take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Pavlovich's power and speed but thinks Rozenstruik's technique wins.
Big Brady thinks Sergei Pavlovich needs to be aggressive to win. He notes Pavlovich looked terrible against Volkov when he wasn't aggressive, but when he rushes forward he knocks people out. Brady believes if Pavlovich brings aggression, he will sleep Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the first round. He chalks up the Volkov fight to them being friends/training partners.
Connor picks Pavlovich, believing he can overwhelm Rozenstruik early with his power. He notes that Rozenstruik is a trigger counter puncher who stands with locked knees, making him vulnerable to a bull rush. Connor thinks Pavlovich's loss to Volkov was due to familiarity and that he will revert to his aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Pavlovich hesitates or tries to be technical, he will lose.
James picks Pavlovich to win by knockout in round one, but he is not confident and sees value on Rozenstruik. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to fade if he doesn't get an early KO, and that Rozenstruik has a chance to win by decision or knockout in later rounds. He mentions Rozenstruik's decision prop at +700 as a potential small play. He is undecided on betting Rozenstruik.
Rozenstruik is the technically better striker and will use his mobility, straight jabs, and counters to pick apart Pavlovich's wild combinations. He is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round TKO. He believes Pavlovich has a great chin and will remind people he is a top heavyweight. He notes Rozenstruik was finished by Volkov and that Pavlovich took a beating from Volkov but never got finished. He expects a dominant performance.
Zane picks Rozenstruik, arguing that Pavlovich is a one-dimensional brawler who has not evolved. He notes that Rozenstruik is a durable counter puncher who can settle in and pick apart aggressive fighters. Zane believes Pavlovich's lack of a range game and poor fight IQ will be exposed, and that Rozenstruik's trigger countering will catch him coming in.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 37 of 126 | 29% | 37 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 91 of 184 | 49% | 92 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 9 of 38 | 23% | 9 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 19 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 36 of 69 | 52% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 36 of 67 | 53% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 37 of 126 | 29% | 19 of 92 | 6 of 17 | 12 of 17 | 37 of 124 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 91 of 184 | 49% | 58 of 146 | 12 of 16 | 21 of 22 | 86 of 177 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 9 of 38 | 23% | 1 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 19 of 48 | 39% | 5 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 28 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 36 of 69 | 52% | 27 of 57 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 33 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 15 of 50 | 30% | 10 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 36 of 67 | 53% | 26 of 57 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rozenstruik (-225), Tuivasa (+185)
Round 1
The UFC has thrown the crowd some red meat on the main card in the form of a good old-fashioned heavyweight slobberknocker. While Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 UFC) may have the kickboxing background and is a more technical man compared to his opponent, he does not shy away from throwing bungalows when the mood strikes him. Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 UFC) will feed him that mood as well as several punches, if he has anything to say about it. Referee Marc Goddard buckles up for what is about to come next. Happy as a clam to fight in front of a crowd that is drowning him with adoration, Tuivasa offers a fist bump that is gladly accepted. Rozenstruik moves to the center of the cage to start, and he stays away from a front kick lobbed at him. Rozenstruik snaps out a kick to the lead leg, and he lands one on the inside as well. Tuivasa gives him a kick back to think about, and Rozenstruik counters with a right over the top. Tuivasa kicks him again, and he leans back to dodge it. The Aussie absorbs another low kick and adjusts his shorts, and he sits down on a right hand when Rozenstruik inevitably chops at his front wheel again. Tuivasa uses several feints to draw out wide reactions, and he overkicks to turn himself around. Rozenstruik reaches him with a one-two, and he retreats before getting countered. Tuivasa sells out on another inaccurate kick, and Rozenstruik prods him with a jab. Rozenstruik gets in a left hook and a hard calf kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one coming back. They jab at the same time, and Rozenstruik paws out his left hook to measure. Tuivasa gets a front kick to land on the belly, and he winds up with a right hand and pulls it back as Rozenstruik flinches. Tuivasa chips with kicks on both sides, and he gets off a left hook and is met with a left to the chest. Tuivasa keeps his guard up to block a lead left hook, and he tries to jab his way in only to get met with quicker offense. Tuivasa misses with a low kick and dodges a looping strike in response, but Rozenstruik still gets him in the belly. Rozenstruik kicks his man in the side, and he gets clipped with two big hooks right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 2
The big men touch ‘em up to begin Round 2, and Rozenstruik leads behind several jabs. When Tuivasa tries to do the same, Rozenstruik chews up his front leg. Rozenstruik loads up and smashes Tuivasa in the side of the head with a right hand, and he manages to escape danger by a matter of inches when Tuivasa tries to retaliate. Tuivasa goes after his opponent with a right hand, and Rozenstruik is just out of range. Tuivasa stands firm, cracking Rozenstruik with a right hand, and Tuivasa absorbs a flush knee to the body on the way out. Tuivasa slugs with a right hand, and Rozenstruik turns the corner and strings several punches together. Tuivasa rebounds off the fencing, and he walks face-first into a right hand and a knee. Tuivasa backs his adversary to the wall but is not able to catch him with anything clean, and he is slowly working his way forward. Tuivasa engages with a hard right hand, and he releases a low kick that slams his foot into Rozenstruik’s knee. Tuivasa limps back, and Rozenstruik charges at him and lays into him with a mighty blitz of punches. Tuivasa gets cut on the right side of his face, and he starts firing back, backing Rozenstruik away and hurting him as well. Tuivasa shakes his foot out and struggles to put weight on it. Rozenstruik lines a one-two down the pipe, and a head kick that follows is blocked. Tuivasa catches Rozenstruik ducking down, but it is one-and-done. Rozenstruik lands a few kicks, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 3
Gloves are touched to kick off the final round, much to the surprise of many that it got this far. Rozenstruik keeps behind his jab to stop Tuivasa from reaching him, and a leg kick after it is also effective. Tuivasa uses his own jab, but it is not able to reach the target. A right hand does, and Rozenstruik counters right back. Tuivasa is out of range of a front kick, and two jabs fall short as well. Rozenstruik snaps the head back with his own jab, and he kicks the body and escapes as Tuivasa lumbers towards him. Tuivasa finds his own with a left and then a right, and Rozenstruik scoots away from any further blows before stabbing out a jab. Tuivasa lands a stance-changing low kick, and he elbows Rozenstruik when Rozenstruik loads up on a left hand. Tuivasa walks through a jab to unload with a right, and Rozenstruik catches him with a right on the inside. Rozenstruik stays composed and watches massive right hands soar past him, and he pushes off with a front kick that adjusts Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa waves Goddard off, and he practically sprints at Rozenstruik with his right hand firing off. Rozenstruik’s head movement keeps him safe, and his jab peppers the Aussie again and again. Rozenstruik shields himself from the telegraphed bombs, and he gets up close and scores a short right hand. As Tuivasa goes wide, Rozenstruik pretends to smooth out his hair—he is bald, so it is a mocking gesture. Rozenstruik plods out with front kicks and jabs, keeping Tuivasa from getting his hands on him. Tuivasa sells out with big punches, and he points the ground to force a brawl. Rozenstruik does the same, and they blast one another with ferocious punches. This continues right to the final horn, and they have made it the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Tai Tuivasa via Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.
Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.
Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.
Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.
Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.
The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.
Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 127 of 215 | 59% | 140 of 230 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 27 of 75 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 47 of 75 | 62% | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 48 of 68 | 70% | 52 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 127 of 215 | 59% | 78 of 158 | 30 of 37 | 19 of 20 | 123 of 209 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 22 of 68 | 32% | 16 of 59 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 13 of 31 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 19 of 41 | 46% | 11 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 47 of 75 | 62% | 24 of 48 | 16 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 48 of 68 | 70% | 35 of 53 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 45 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-148), Rozenstruik (+124)
Round 1
It’s all down to the heavyweights tonight. The big men sport nearly identical finish rates, with their primary method of victory by knockout, so referee Marc Goddard might not need to put in 25 minutes of work here. Former kickboxer Rozenstruik (13-5, 7-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to blunt the momentum of the undefeated Gaziev (12-0, 1-0 UFC), and he will have five rounds or less to spring the minor betting upset. They touch gloves respectfully, and prepare to handle their business. Rozenstruik circles to the outside, lands a leg kick, and gets himself ready to stop a takedown. Gaziev shoots, and he bounces off the fence when he misses. Rozenstruik strafes to the side and lands a right hand that makes Gaziev lick his lips. Rozenstruik scores a leg kick, and he comes up short on an overhand right. Rozenstruik paws out a jab, and his foe backs him to the fence. Gaziev crashes the pocket for a takedown, and Rozenstruik stands him up immediately and smacks him with a right hand. Rozenstruik jabs, and he avoids a huge right hand. Another Gaziev crashing takedown effort gets stopped in its tracks, and Rozenstruik busts his foe’s nose open with his fists. Gaziev shows little setup when he tries to take the fight down, and does not even bend over so much as he runs straight ahead. Rozenstruik briefly knocks him back with a one-two, and Gaziev gets right back to his constant forward pressure. Rozenstruik scores a right hand and then jabs his way out to safety. Gaziev swings as hard as he can with a left and a monstrous right, and Rozenstruik dodges by a matter of inches. Gaziev plods ahead and then lumbers into a clinch, swinging slow punches all the while. Gaziev drops down to scoop up a single, and he lifts the kickboxer up and slams him down. Gaziev connects with a few short punches from above, and keeps his weight pressed down heavily. The round ends with Gaziev sitting up measuring a strike.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 2
The big men reach Round 2, and Rozenstruik reintroduces himself with multiple snappy jabs. Gaziev lumbers forward, and Rozenstruik uses head movement to dodge the majority of the big punches coming from the Bahraini. Rozenstruik reaches out with punches and low kicks, and he smiles when eating a jab as they high-five from an exchange. Rozenstruik looks for two punches, and Gaziev sneaks a counter right around the top to back him away. Gaziev pushes out his own jab, and Rozenstruik goes to the body and then reaches out with a one-two. Gaziev smiles when he eats a jab, and he fails to land when swinging at the kickboxer. Gaziev drives a knee right to the belly, and Rozenstruik responds with a single jab. Gaziev swings with more of a hammerfist than a straight punch, and Rozenstruik chops at his lead leg when Gaziev slowly moves forward. Rozenstruik naps out his jab to decent effect, disrupting the oncoming Gaziev until Gaziev simply decides to rumble forward like a tank and go after a single. Rozenstruik uses the wall behind him to keep himself upright, and he pulls his leg down to stop the effort. The two trade knees to the gut, and Gaziev presses tightly to control “Bigi Boy.” Rozenstruik gets in a few more short knees to the body, and Gaziev fails on another takedown effort. Goddard asks them to work as Gaziev stalls out, and Rozenstruik tries to get away again only to be snagged by his opponent and held in the clinch until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 3
It is the third round, and these two heavyweights are quite fatigued to this point. They meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Rozenstruik stands firm and jabs the head and body. “Bigi Boy” lands a leg kick, and he paws out with several jabs to keep Gaziev at bay. Gaziev clubs his foe with a right hand, and he sneaks another right around the jab to get Rozenstruik’s attention. Rozenstruik throws back with a single right after multiple jabs, and Gaziev’s nose is bloodied and his mouth wide open. Gaziev charges, landing a left hand, but he gets stunned with a right hand that nearly dislodges his mouthpiece. Gaziev holds his mouthguard like it is about to fly out, as he appears to be struggling to breathe. Rozenstruik snaps out jab after jab, and blood sprays from Gaziev’s nose when he absorbs each and every blow. Rozenstruik rips a right hand to the body, and he hops away from the offense from Gaziev that is slow and labored. Gaziev continues to shuffle his mouthpiece, and Rozenstruik opens up with a fierce combination ending with a chopping low kick. Gaziev reaches out with his arms outstretched, and Rozenstruik snaps his head back with a mean jab. Gaziev sits down on a right hand counter, and Rozenstruik has to shake it out and backpedal. Rozenstruik gathers his thoughts and jabs away, and when he lands a leg kick, he gets knocked back with a right hand. The kick did enough damage to draw out a minimal limp, and both men stand in front of one another and engage in a brief, fierce exchange to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, much to the surprise of most prognosticators. Rozenstruik does not change his approach, with jabs and leg kicks completely flustering the undefeated fighter. Rozenstruik’s power jab stops Gaziev from hitting him cleanly, until Gaziev decides he is sick of getting hit and runs forward. Gaziev unleashes several big punches, knocking “Bigi Boy” against the fencing, and he shoots for a takedown to follow and try to take back some momentum. Rozenstruik staves it off and slides away to not get hit by an elbow on the break, and he returns to striking range while Gaziev is chewing on his mouthpiece. Rozenstruik jabs the face and chest, and Gaziev glares at him but does not have the energy reserves to do anything more but look angry. Gaziev tries to throw a single punch, and he does not have the gas to reach his opponent. Rozenstruik opens up with a left and a huge right, seeing that Gaziev is spent. He releases several more heavy punches, stinging the unbeaten fighter, and starts feeling himself. Rozenstruik jabs and smacks Gaziev in the face, and he lets Gaziev swing futilely back his direction. Rozenstruik lets go with additional jabs and doubles up on a leg kick as Gaziev looks down at his damaged limb but does not keep attacking. The jab dislodges Gaziev’s gumshield, and Rozenstruik walks off to celebrate the cool moment as Goddard recovers it and has Gaziev replace it. Rozenstruik surges into action as seconds are left in the round, and he shoots for his own takedown so Gaziev sells out defending it, and he bails on it to unload with a flurry of strikes to end the round. As Gaziev sits on his stool, he seems to tell his corner he cannot continue. The translation is not clear, whether he is injured or exhausted or something else. Gaziev stands up, and with his corner still in the cage, Goddard goes over to them all and calls time. Goddard demands that the corner translate what Gaziev was saying, and eventually they inform him that Gaziev says he cannot see. Goddard has the doctor check out Gaziev, but before the physician can determine any lack of vision, Gaziev shakes his head and seems to motion that he is all done tonight after getting beaten up for 20 minutes. Therefore, it is a stoppage via retirement at the end of the fourth round. It is a crucial win for the former kickboxer, as he strips the 0 from Gaziev’s record, and turns a rough patch to 2-1 in his last three. In his post-fight interview, Rozenstruik welcomes any challenge, and many minds immediately go to Derrick Lewis, as the two sluggers have never met. Next week, it is a massive night for the sport as UFC 299 goes down in Miami with a blockbuster lineup. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Shamil Gaziev R4 5:00 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, calling the -140 odds a gift. He notes Rozenstruik is one-dimensional and flat-footed, while Gaziev has power, wrestling, and better movement. He has a full unit bet on Gaziev and expects him to win.
Big Brady picks Rozenstruik despite acknowledging Gaziev's power and early finishing ability. He notes that Gaziev has only been past 1.5 rounds once and has cardio concerns, while Rozenstruik has five-round experience and a fifth-round knockout. He believes if the fight extends, it heavily favors Rozenstruik. However, he admits he has no confidence in the pick and won't bet the fight except maybe a prop.
Cody sees Rozenstruik as a live underdog due to his knockout power and proven five-round cardio, noting that Gaziev has weak cardio and has never been extended beyond two rounds. He believes if Rozenstruik survives the early takedown onslaught, Gaziev will gas and Rozenstruik can finish him late. He compares it to the Overeem fight where Rozenstruik knocked him out in the fifth round.
Gaziev is a strong grappler who should get the fight to the ground with relative ease. Rozenstruik struggles against grapplers, as seen in losses to Curtis Blaydes, Jailton Almeida, and Alexander Volkov. Gaziev's striking confidence has improved, and he can stay safe from Rozenstruik's power until he secures a takedown. Once on the ground, Gaziev's strength will be too much, leading to a TKO or submission finish within the first round. The host considers -145 a gift line.
Paul picks Gaziev but acknowledges it's a 60/40 fight and not one he has a big edge on. He expects Gaziev to get early takedowns but questions what happens after that, noting Gaziev's cardio concerns. He mentions the fight feels like a toss-up and he's not entirely confident.
The MMA Guru struggles with this pick but ultimately goes with Rozenstruik. He thinks Gaziev is open on the feet and has been dropped before, while Rozenstruik has power and experience in main events. He worries about Rozenstruik's takedown defense but believes he can survive and find opportunities. He predicts a KO in round one and mentions betting on Rozenstruik as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.
Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.
James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.
Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.
Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.
Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 1 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 1 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Chris Daukaus | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Chris Daukaus | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Daukaus despite Rozenstruik being a 2-1 favorite, because he believes Daukaus is the better striker with better footwork, speed, and volume. He notes both have power and suspect chins, making it essentially a 50-50 fight. He advises not to bet on this fight due to the volatility, but suggests using both in knockout Kings entries.
Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, emphasizing his superior power and questioning Daukaus's chin after being knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He notes Rozenstruik has been more active and hits harder, and expects a first-round knockout. He criticizes the UFC for feeding Daukaus to a heavy hitter.
Cody picks Rozenstruik, citing his power and kickboxing background. He notes Daukaus has durability issues, having been knocked out by Lewis and Blaydes. He thinks Rozenstruik will land a counter right hand and knock him out. He suggests Rozenstruik by knockout or under 1.5 rounds.
Lock picks Rozenstruik to win, likely by knockout, but he is not comfortable paying the chalk price. He notes that Rozenstruik doesn't always maximize his knockout opportunities, making him hesitant even on the KO line at -125. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he suggests a pump and dump: buy Rozenstruik this weekend, sell after the win, because Rozenstruik has a ceiling and won't crack the top five again. He also mentions Daukaus might be cut after a third straight loss.
Paul picks Rozenstruik, noting his power and that Daukaus has been knocked out by heavy hitters. He is more interested in the under 1.5 rounds prop, as he expects a finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout loss but thinks Daukaus' durability is a bigger issue.
The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus by first-round KO. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and believes he was exposed in his fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, where he got hit a lot. Rozenstruik has a reach advantage and power, and Daukaus is coming off a loss by his brother. He predicts Rozenstruik will put him down early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 21 of 37 | 56% | 10 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 21 of 37 | 56% | 10 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)
Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.
Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.
Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 32 of 96 | 33% | 113 of 190 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:19 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 18 of 68 | 26% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 27 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 8 of 37 | 21% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 43 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 32 of 96 | 33% | 18 of 76 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 12 | 24 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 18 of 68 | 26% | 17 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 65 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 19 of 42 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 28 | 21% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 8 of 37 | 21% | 5 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 5 of 17 | 29% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.
Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.
Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.
Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.
Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.
The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.
Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.
The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing Blaydes' wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Rozenstruik is not in great shape and has poor takedown defense. He expects Blaydes to mix in takedowns with striking, take Rozenstruik down, and pound him out for a second-round TKO. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes wins nine times out of ten.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 1 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 1 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 16 of 29 | 55% | 6 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Augusto Sakai | 3 of 14 | 21% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 16 of 29 | 55% | 6 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Augusto Sakai | 3 of 14 | 21% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.
Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.
Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.
Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.
Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.
The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Francis Ngannou by first-round knockout, expecting him to land a hard punch early. He notes that if Ngannou doesn't get the knockout, Rozenstruik could win a decision due to Ngannou's low activity. He sees value in betting Rozenstruik but ultimately goes with Ngannou.
Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou, acknowledging the risk due to Rozenstruik's timing and power, but believes Ngannou is the better fighter with more tools. He suggests Ngannou should use a clinch and takedown game plan, as Rozenstruik's takedown defense is weak. Levi notes that Ngannou's confidence is high after three wins, unlike the Lewis fight, and expects a knockout.
Matt picks Rozenstruik as an underdog, believing the line at -270 for Ngannou is too wide. He notes Ngannou's rudimentary striking and reliance on power, while Rozenstruik has a wider arsenal and better kickboxing experience. He thinks if Rozenstruik can survive the early power, he can take over and finish Ngannou in the second round.
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