UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje Next Fight
Age 48
Height 6' 2"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 48
Height 6' 4"
Reach 77"
Weight 231 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Aleksei Oleinik
3.29 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.8 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.82 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.9 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Fabrício Werdum
3.59 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.64 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.75 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
31.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Aleksei Oleinik - Fight History
LOSS vs Ilir Latifi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilir Latifi 0 38 of 48 79% 74 of 88 3 of 6 50% 0 0 8:29
Aleksei Oleinik 0 28 of 70 40% 68 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilir Latifi 0 11 of 14 78% 45 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:16
Aleksei Oleinik 0 4 of 12 33% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilir Latifi 0 17 of 21 80% 19 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Aleksei Oleinik 0 17 of 30 56% 30 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ilir Latifi 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:28
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 28 25% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilir Latifi 38 of 48 79% 32 of 40 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 27 5 of 6 15 of 15
Aleksei Oleinik 28 of 70 40% 9 of 46 7 of 9 12 of 15 27 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilir Latifi 11 of 14 78% 8 of 10 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 9
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 12 33% 1 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilir Latifi 17 of 21 80% 15 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Aleksei Oleinik 17 of 30 56% 5 of 17 5 of 6 7 of 7 17 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ilir Latifi 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 28 25% 3 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 5 6 of 25 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Cody picks Ilir Latifi to win, highlighting his power and the favorable matchup. He notes that Oleinik has a compromised chin and that Latifi's big hooks could knock him out. He expects Latifi to either knock out Oleinik early or grind out a decision. He mentions that Latifi has been training at All-Stars in Sweden and looks motivated.

Latifi by KO +195/+200; Latifi by decision +250
"I just think stylistically he gets this job done even if it's a knockout or a boring decision regardless I still just think he gets the job done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Paul picks Ilir Latifi to win, citing his takedown ability and top control. He notes that Oleinik is unlikely to submit Latifi due to his lack of a neck, and that Latifi's power could lead to a knockout. He expects a slow, grinding fight but believes Latifi's style is a bad matchup for Oleinik. He is not betting due to emotional attachment to both fighters.

"I'm picking the sledgehammer I'm not going to be betting this fight because you know my heart's too invested on both sides"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, despite acknowledging the difficulty of submitting Latifi due to his lack of a neck. He believes Oleinik has the cardio advantage and can outlast Latifi, who hasn't knocked anyone out since 2016. He thinks Oleinik will win a decision by outworking Latifi with volume and grappling. He calls the plus money on Oleinik 'crazy' and bets on him.

Oleinik by decision
"Oleinik by decision is my pick... I think Oleinik has the gas and always kind of surprises with those weird shovel shots."
Submission (scarf hold) R1 3:39 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.

"i like alexionic i liked him two weeks ago i like him now i think alexia olenek pulls off the upset here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.

first round submission
"give me alexia olynyk to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.

Vanderaa by TKO
"i got jared vander i got jared vander after the first round and i would like to save andra by tko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.

"i just can't pick jaren vader in a ufc fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.

"The pick here is going to be Vanderaa slight lean towards him... if he's able to go out there and give us a solid 12 minutes without getting taken down I could see him cruising to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.

Oleinik by submission +165
"i think the old man oh linux got another one in the tank cody i bet i'm at plus 100"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, expressing disdain for Jared Vanderaa's physique and performance. He expects Oleinik to get a first-round submission, possibly by arm triangle or rear-naked choke, citing Vanderaa's grappling issues and Oleinik's full camp.

first round submission prediction
"i'm gonna go with alexi olynyk here jared vandira is garbage"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 59 of 121 48% 98 of 162 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:31
Aleksei Oleinik 0 71 of 136 52% 112 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 25 of 59 42% 27 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:37
Aleksei Oleinik 0 23 of 53 43% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 10 of 22 45% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Aleksei Oleinik 0 20 of 32 62% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:54
3 Serghei Spivac 0 24 of 40 60% 55 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Aleksei Oleinik 0 28 of 51 54% 51 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 59 of 121 48% 33 of 92 13 of 16 13 of 13 52 of 110 4 of 6 3 of 5
Aleksei Oleinik 71 of 136 52% 67 of 132 3 of 3 1 of 1 55 of 112 4 of 8 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 25 of 59 42% 11 of 45 8 of 8 6 of 6 23 of 55 1 of 3 1 of 1
Aleksei Oleinik 23 of 53 43% 21 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 10 of 22 45% 5 of 15 2 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 3
Aleksei Oleinik 20 of 32 62% 19 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1 14 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 7
3 Serghei Spivac 24 of 40 60% 17 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 1
Aleksei Oleinik 28 of 51 54% 27 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 36 3 of 6 6 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, citing his wrestling, ground and pound, and Oleinik's declining chin. He thinks Spivac will control the fight on top and avoid Oleinik's submissions. He bet the over on rounds (1.5) at +135, expecting the fight to last into the second round. He likes the over on strikes for both.

over 1.5 rounds (+135); monkey knife fight: more more
"i have spivak in my lineup i'm very confident in this."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac due to youth and Oleinik's age (43) and poor cardio. He thinks Spivac should keep the fight standing to avoid Oleinik's submissions and finish him in the third round via TKO. He is not betting due to the high price.

win by TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna take sergey spivak to win I'm gonna say third round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, emphasizing Oleinik's age (43) and decline, while noting Spivac's youth (27) and improved cardio and grappling. He predicts Spivac will win by TKO late in the second round, as Oleinik will struggle with Spivac's jab and clinch, and his cardio will fade.

Spivac by TKO late in the second round; price minus 140
"not only do i take speed back but speed probably gets a tko late in the second price is like minus 140 on that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi sees this as a passing of the torch fight. He notes the 18-year age gap and believes Spivac has shown he can make adjustments and handle adversity, as seen in his wins over Tai Tuivasa and Carlos Felipe. He thinks Spivac can grapple with Oleinik and even beat him at his own game, and that Oleinik's skills are declining. He expects Spivac to win, possibly by ground and pound or knockout.

"i got spit back for the win here um and you know i hope him and uh alexi can hug and you know raise his hand in the middle of the cage"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Jacob picks Serghei Spivac, but worries about Spivac's willingness to grapple with Oleinik. He hopes Spivac keeps it standing and uses his striking to exploit Oleinik's chin. He has Spivac in his lineup at $9,200. He also likes the over on strikes.

"i went with sergey just because we've seen olynyk's chin lately."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The host picks Serghei Spivac by decision, believing he can grind out Oleinik with cage clinching and striking. He notes Spivac's slight striking advantage and that Oleinik is dangerous on the ground but Spivac will play it safe. He expects a slow-paced fight and likes the over 1.5 rounds. He mentions Spivac's decision prop at +677 as an attractive line. He is not confident in paying -230 but thinks Spivac wins.

Spivac by decision at +677; over 1.5 rounds at +135; Spivac round 3 at +850 mentioned
"i'm going to go spivak i'm going to go with i think speedvac round three could be live here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Paul picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his fandom for Oleinik. He notes Oleinik's age and recent poor performances, but acknowledges Spivac's lack of elite speed and power, making this a more favorable matchup for Oleinik than recent fights. Paul passes on betting.

"i'm gonna pick spivak if i had to but i can't i can't touch money i'll be cheering uh against my bed if i bet on sergey spivak so it's a straight up pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound. He expects Oleinik to try to earn respect on the feet but Spivac will stick a jab in his face. Oleinik will shoot takedowns, but Spivac will stuff them and land elbows. In round two, Oleinik will shoot a bad takedown, Spivac will take mount and land ground and pound for the TKO.

second round TKO, ground and pound
"i'm gonna go with sergey spivak round two ground and pound tko"
LOSS vs Chris Daukaus
TKO (punches) R1 1:55 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi is impressed with Chris Daukaus's hand speed and accuracy, noting his quick knockouts of Parker Porter and Nascimento. He believes Daukaus only needs 20-30 seconds of pocket exchanges to knock out Oleinik, who is a liability standing. Levi acknowledges Oleinik's 45 submission wins but thinks Daukaus has the grappling skills to avoid submissions and keep the fight standing. He expects a first-round knockout and sees Daukaus as a rising heavyweight prospect.

first round knockout
"i'm going with chris dyches by first round starching of alexia olynyk getting into that top ten"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R2 0:21 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 35 of 42 83% 35 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:39
Aleksei Oleinik 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:27
Aleksei Oleinik 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:21
2 Derrick Lewis 1 22 of 23 95% 22 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Aleksei Oleinik 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 35 of 42 83% 34 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 30 of 35
Aleksei Oleinik 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 14
Aleksei Oleinik 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Derrick Lewis 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 21
Aleksei Oleinik 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Alexey Oleynik

Round 1
The headliner of the evening sees a fascinating style matchup between a knockout artist in Lewis (23-7, 1 NC; 14-5 UFC) against the submission wizardry of Oleynik (59-13-1, 8-4 UFC). This five-round heavyweight contest may very well end one of two ways, with Lewis one knockout away from the all-time UFC heavyweight record, while Oleynik could notch his 47th by tapout should he elicit a submission. Referee Herb Dean will be right there to make sure everything is copacetic as it all plays out, and the two large men – Lewis weighs 38 pounds more than his opponent – touch gloves to introduce themselves. Lewis opens with a head kick, and a hard one-two to hurt Oleynik and push him to the fence. Oleynik quickly sets up an Ezekiel choke, but he abandons it to try to gain a better position with his back to the fence. Lewis throws him down to the ground like Tim Boetsch’s hip toss, and he starts slamming the Russian in the head with punches. Oleynik sits up and looks for a leg, so Lewis spins out from on top to pop over to half guard. Oleynik ties him up from his back as he tries to sit up, but Lewis is content to press his full body weight down on his opponent. Oleynik gets back to his knees and ties up Lewis’ leg to land his own single and wind up on top. He gets to side guard with ease, and secures a scarf hold headlock and wrenches on Lewis’ neck. Lewis powers out of the bad spot and starts raining down punches, but Oleynik ties him back up and clings to him like Saran wrap. Oleynik reverses the position and gets back to side control, where he aims for a scarf hold headlock on the opposite side. He lets go to readjust, and Lewis wriggles and turns his head while Oleynik puts everything he has into the choke. Lewis appears unconcerned and rides it out as veins bulge on Oleynik’s forehead while he applies the torque. The Russian recommits to the choke, and Lewis is trapped but not entirely in danger. Oleynik bails on the choke and elects to take side control and set up a keylock. Time expires before he can land it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik

Round 2
Oleynik reaches with a front kick, and Lewis leaps at him with a flying knee.
A bomb of a right hand takes the legs out from the Russian, and as “The Black Beast” rains down punch after punch from on top, Oleynik turns to his side. Unleashing a barrage of nasty punches. Lewis smells blood and knows the finish is right around the corner. Lewis keeps clubbing Oleynik in the face until Dean has seen enough and stops the fight.
Lewis is now the all-time leader in heavyweight knockouts, scoring his 11th inside the Octagon. Lewis survived adversity and got the Russian out of there to end the night with style points. See you next week, for a much higher stakes heavyweight contest at UFC 252.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Alexey Oleynik R2 0:21 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Oleinik as an underdog, believing he can get the fight to the ground and secure a submission. He notes that Lewis has poor takedown defense and often rests on the ground, which could be dangerous against a submission specialist like Oleinik. However, he acknowledges Lewis's explosive power and ability to pop up from bottom, making this a tough call. He leans Oleinik by submission in the first round.

Oleinik by submission at plus 200 or plus 250; fight does not go to decision (minus 800); Lewis by KO at minus 150
"i'm gonna take alexia linux to win this fight um i do think he gets louis on the ground and louis is going to try to rest and and by the time you know lewis tries to get his rest …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win by knockout. He notes that Lewis has a tendency to lose the first two rounds but then come back with his signature 'black beast blitz' and knock out his opponent. He also mentions that Oleinik has a 7-10 minute window to get a submission, but if he doesn't, Lewis will likely finish him. Levi acknowledges that Oleinik is dangerous on the ground but believes Lewis's power is a different level.

"i'm gonna go with lewis to get the knockout win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Lewis has freakish power and can knock anyone out, but Oleinik is a dangerous submission artist who can get the fight to the ground. Lewis has shown the ability to get back to his feet, but Oleinik's jiu-jitsu is elite. The line at -265 is too wide; Oleinik offers value. Lewis likely wins by first-round KO, but it's not a bet.

Oleinik by submission, Oleinik moneyline +225
"I'm gonna go with Lewis to win by first round ko but definitely not a bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission via rear naked choke. He criticizes the oddsmakers for making Lewis such a big favorite, citing Lewis's close fights against Ivanov and Latifi. He believes Oleinik's grappling will be too much for Lewis, who loads up on big shots and leaves himself open for takedowns. He notes that Oleinik has a reach advantage and will transition from position to position, eventually taking Lewis's back.

first round submission, rear naked choke
"i think olynyk is going to go out there he's going to engage in the grappling situations and hold lewis up against the cage eventually get him down in a bit of a tangle"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 94 of 183 51% 149 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:53
Fabrício Werdum 0 53 of 83 63% 70 of 101 3 of 7 42% 1 1 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 54 of 94 57% 71 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Fabrício Werdum 0 25 of 37 67% 28 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Aleksei Oleinik 0 26 of 63 41% 40 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Fabrício Werdum 0 24 of 38 63% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
3 Aleksei Oleinik 0 14 of 26 53% 38 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:26
Fabrício Werdum 0 4 of 8 50% 13 of 18 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 94 of 183 51% 79 of 167 10 of 10 5 of 6 72 of 149 22 of 33 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 53 of 83 63% 27 of 52 16 of 21 10 of 10 34 of 60 16 of 20 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 54 of 94 57% 47 of 86 5 of 5 2 of 3 39 of 76 15 of 18 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 25 of 37 67% 14 of 24 7 of 9 4 of 4 17 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
2 Aleksei Oleinik 26 of 63 41% 21 of 58 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 53 4 of 10 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 24 of 38 63% 12 of 23 7 of 10 5 of 5 15 of 29 6 of 6 3 of 3
3 Aleksei Oleinik 14 of 26 53% 11 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Big Brady picks Fabricio Werdum, citing a favorable stylistic matchup due to Werdum's superior submission game and Oleinik's poor ground game. He expects Werdum to take Oleinik down early and finish with ground and pound or submission, likely in the first round. He notes the line at minus 320 is steep but believes it's a good matchup.

Werdum by first round TKO/submission; fight ends inside first round
"I like Verdoom here. Um, due to the fact that I think it's a good, uh, stylistic match up for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Daniel Levi picks Fabricio Werdum, stating he is the better striker and has the ground game to handle Oleinik's submissions. He notes Oleinik is reckless and makes mistakes, and that Werdum's improved striking and Thai clinch will be key. Levi expects Werdum to capitalize on Oleinik's errors and win inside the distance.

Werdum inside the distance
"I'm actually gonna go with Fabricio Vacaville or doom here to win this fight inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Matt picks Werdum but thinks the -300 line is too wide due to Werdum's long layoff and age. He believes Werdum has the advantage on the feet and can finish Oleinik in the second round, but he is hesitant to bet at the current price. He would consider a bet if the line drops to -250.

Werdum by second-round TKO, fight doesn't go to decision (-250)
"I'm gonna pick over doom to win here but that line is a little bit too wide for me"
Submission (armbar) R2 4:38 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 22 31% 25 of 46 3 of 3 100% 3 0 7:25
Maurice Greene 0 13 of 29 44% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 1 of 7 14% 5 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:13
Maurice Greene 0 3 of 6 50% 26 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Aleksei Oleinik 0 6 of 15 40% 20 of 35 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:12
Maurice Greene 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 22 31% 4 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 6
Maurice Greene 13 of 29 44% 10 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
Maurice Greene 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aleksei Oleinik 6 of 15 40% 3 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 5
Maurice Greene 10 of 23 43% 9 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Daniel picks Aleksei Oleinik via rear-naked choke finish, but admits he's been going back and forth on this fight. He notes that Oleinik has 40+ submissions and is a total badass, while Greene has power and length but questionable grappling. He says someone is most likely getting finished.

finish, rear-naked choke
"I'm gonna roll the dice flip a coin and I'm gonna land on Alexei Olynyk via rear-naked choke finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The host picks Maurice Greene to win by TKO, likely in the second round, but expresses low confidence, stating he doesn't trust Greene. He notes Greene's speed and footwork as advantages, but worries about Oleinik's jiu-jitsu and the possibility of both fighters gassing. He sees the fight as risky and is not planning to bet on it.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -675 considered too steep; over/under 1.5 rounds at -165 sketchy; Greene by TKO in second round predicted.
"I like green here to get the TK over Olynyk probably in the second round but it's a very risky fight I don't trust green"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The host is surprised this fight is on the main card but picks Maurice Greene. He notes Greene's size and difficulty to take down, and Oleinik's age (42) and history of KO losses. He predicts Greene will land a good combo on Oleinik's chin and finish him in the first round.

first round finish
"I could see Maurice green landing a good combo on his chin and getting him out of there in the first round"
LOSS vs Walt Harris
KO (knee and punches) R1 0:12 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Fabrício Werdum - Fight History
Submission (armbar) R1 2:30 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:06
Alexander Gustafsson 0 11 of 19 57% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fabrício Werdum 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:06
Alexander Gustafsson 0 11 of 19 57% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fabrício Werdum 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alexander Gustafsson 11 of 19 57% 9 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fabrício Werdum 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alexander Gustafsson 11 of 19 57% 9 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 7 of 7
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Big Brady picks Gustafsson based on better cardio, speed, and striking advantage. He is concerned about Werdum's size and potential takedowns, but notes Gustafsson has good takedown defense. He calls the fight weird and says the line is too wide to parlay, predicting a decision win for Gustafsson.

Gustafsson by decision
"I think mustafson is going to win this fight based off of you know he's going to have the better cardio he's going to be the faster fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Daniel is confident in Werdum as a plus-270 underdog. He argues the line is off because Gustafsson looked poor in his last two fights and retired after the Anthony Smith loss. He believes Werdum's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, especially if the fight gets dirty and grimy. He notes Werdum had a full camp this time unlike his last fight.

plus 270 underdog, dog or pass fight
"i think this line is off man... where doom should not be plus 270 if you got in on that plus 300 i think that's the way to go... i'm going word with what we're doing for the upset i …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Gustafsson has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but there are too many question marks about his mental state after retirement and his layoff. Werdum looked poor against Oleynik and is 42. The under 2.5 rounds is attractive, but the moneyline is a pass due to uncertainty.

Under 2.5 rounds (-125)
"i like assassin here not enough to parlay him or bet him to be honest"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Gustafsson to win by TKO, despite concerns about Gustafsson looking overweight and happy in interviews. He believes Gustafsson's speed and reach advantage will be too much for Werdum, who looked deflated after his USADA suspension. He predicts an early TKO.

TKO early
"I think Gustiffson wins brutally by TKO."
LOSS vs Aleksei Oleinik
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 94 of 183 51% 149 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:53
Fabrício Werdum 0 53 of 83 63% 70 of 101 3 of 7 42% 1 1 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 54 of 94 57% 71 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Fabrício Werdum 0 25 of 37 67% 28 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Aleksei Oleinik 0 26 of 63 41% 40 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Fabrício Werdum 0 24 of 38 63% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
3 Aleksei Oleinik 0 14 of 26 53% 38 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:26
Fabrício Werdum 0 4 of 8 50% 13 of 18 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 94 of 183 51% 79 of 167 10 of 10 5 of 6 72 of 149 22 of 33 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 53 of 83 63% 27 of 52 16 of 21 10 of 10 34 of 60 16 of 20 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 54 of 94 57% 47 of 86 5 of 5 2 of 3 39 of 76 15 of 18 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 25 of 37 67% 14 of 24 7 of 9 4 of 4 17 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
2 Aleksei Oleinik 26 of 63 41% 21 of 58 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 53 4 of 10 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 24 of 38 63% 12 of 23 7 of 10 5 of 5 15 of 29 6 of 6 3 of 3
3 Aleksei Oleinik 14 of 26 53% 11 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Big Brady picks Fabricio Werdum, citing a favorable stylistic matchup due to Werdum's superior submission game and Oleinik's poor ground game. He expects Werdum to take Oleinik down early and finish with ground and pound or submission, likely in the first round. He notes the line at minus 320 is steep but believes it's a good matchup.

Werdum by first round TKO/submission; fight ends inside first round
"I like Verdoom here. Um, due to the fact that I think it's a good, uh, stylistic match up for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Daniel Levi picks Fabricio Werdum, stating he is the better striker and has the ground game to handle Oleinik's submissions. He notes Oleinik is reckless and makes mistakes, and that Werdum's improved striking and Thai clinch will be key. Levi expects Werdum to capitalize on Oleinik's errors and win inside the distance.

Werdum inside the distance
"I'm actually gonna go with Fabricio Vacaville or doom here to win this fight inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Matt picks Werdum but thinks the -300 line is too wide due to Werdum's long layoff and age. He believes Werdum has the advantage on the feet and can finish Oleinik in the second round, but he is hesitant to bet at the current price. He would consider a bet if the line drops to -250.

Werdum by second-round TKO, fight doesn't go to decision (-250)
"I'm gonna pick over doom to win here but that line is a little bit too wide for me"
KO (punches) R4 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Mar 17, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 48 of 88 54% 83 of 130 3 of 9 33% 0 2 6:40
Fabrício Werdum 1 48 of 90 53% 96 of 144 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 20 of 37 54% 37 of 56 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:50
Fabrício Werdum 0 15 of 28 53% 42 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
2 Alexander Volkov 0 14 of 24 58% 31 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:26
Fabrício Werdum 0 3 of 9 33% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Alexander Volkov 0 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 4 0% 0 2 0:24
Fabrício Werdum 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
4 Alexander Volkov 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Fabrício Werdum 1 17 of 21 80% 21 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 48 of 88 54% 30 of 66 12 of 14 6 of 8 22 of 41 1 of 2 25 of 45
Fabrício Werdum 48 of 90 53% 37 of 75 8 of 11 3 of 4 32 of 71 3 of 5 13 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 20 of 37 54% 17 of 33 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 32
Fabrício Werdum 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 19 2 of 4 5 of 5
2 Alexander Volkov 14 of 24 58% 6 of 14 6 of 6 2 of 4 5 of 10 1 of 2 8 of 12
Fabrício Werdum 3 of 9 33% 2 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 10 of 15 66% 5 of 9 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 13 of 32 40% 10 of 27 2 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2
4 Alexander Volkov 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 17 of 21 80% 15 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov

Round 1
English referee Marc Goddard will oversee tonight's heavyweight main event, scheduled for five rounds. Straight out of the gate, Werdum comes flying at Volkov with a jumping side-kick that doesn't even come close and leaves the Russian shrugging. Werdum soon changes levels, however, and it's only a matter of seconds before Volkov finds himself on the canvas at the base of the fence. Werdum makes things uncomfortable for "Drago" with a can opener, then releases to land a couple right hands as he works from Volkov's closed guard. Volkov opens his guard to try and stand, but Werdum keeps him under control on the ground. Werdum stands to get some more leverage on his punches, slamming Volkov with three or four solid right hands before kneeling again. Volkov gets his left arm up to block Werdum's next wave of ground-and-pound, now with two minutes remaining in round one. Volkov jumps back to his feet with 90 seconds left, and he immediately punishes Werdum with an uppercut, now a clinch knee, now punches to the body. Werdum eats the strikes well, then catches Volkov coming forward with a straight left hand. Volkov trips Werdum to the floor but doesn't want to come down and play in the BJJ wiz's guard. Werdum throws a jumping knee and drops to his back, trying to lure Volkov to the ground. Instead, referee Goddard orders Werdum back to his feet, and "Vai Cavalo" simply trips Volkov to the ground instead.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum

Round 2
Volkov blocks a takedown attempt from Werdum and pushes the Brazilian against the fence, landing an uppercut to the body of the former champion. Werdum reverses to the outside but can't hold the massive Russian in place, and now the big men come back to the middle of the cage. Werdum grabs for a single-leg but gets underhooked and pushed away by the rangy Volkov. "Drago" catches a kick and chops out Werdum's lead leg, then tells him to stand back up. Werdum gets up and is met by a short left hand, but his next single-leg attempt yields an easy takedown. Now it's Werdum working from Volkov's closed guard with two minutes on the clock. Again, Werdum uses a can opener to tee up Volkov's head for some ground-and-pound. Werdum comes over the top with a couple good elbows, but Volkov is doing well to tie up and negate the space. Werdum gets to half guard and leans across Volkov's body to try a kimura, but he can't get it before the horn. One of Werdum's elbows has opened up a nasty cut on the forehead of Volkov, who returns to his corner at the end of the round with his forehead covered in blood.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum

Round 3
Volkov stings Werdum with a plunging right hand, forcing the Brazilian to shoot for a takedown. Volkov stuffs the shot and comes out on top, but "Vai Cavalo" reverses immediately and takes top position. Volkov works back to his feet quickly, then has to fend off Werdum as the ex-champ tries to pull guard. Referee Goddard appears to issue a warning to Volkov for grabbing the inside of Werdum's gloves. Werdum is sporting a significant cut and mouse underneath his right eye, and Volkov is only making things worse with his punches. Two minutes remain in round two as Werdum shoots, then pulls guard. Volkov tries to sit on top of Werdum and possibly try and armbar, but Werdum slickly slips out and tries to take the Russian's back. Volkov peels Werdum off before he can establish back-mount, and the big men come back to their feet. Volkov looks to be taking charge of this fight, particularly on the feet, where's marching Werdum around the cage with jabs and kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Volkov

Round 4
Werdum pulls guard and tries to take Volkov's back in the ensuing scramble. Instead, Volkov sets up in Werdum's closed guard, where Werdum grabs hold of the Russian's wrists. "Drago" pulls his hands back and socks Werdum in the face as referee Goddard calls for action on the ground. With 3:40 on the clock, Volkov stands and asks Werdum to do the same. Werdum gets up and starts swinging wildly; Volkov makes him pay with a few well-placed uppercuts that put the Brazilian on rubber legs. Werdum hits the ground near the fence, dazed, and Volkov finishes the job with a pair of punches that put "Vai Cavalo" out cold. After dropping the first few rounds, Alexander Volkov storms back to knock out former UFC heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum in the fourth round.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Fabricio Werdum via KO (Punches) R4 1:38
WIN vs Marcin Tybura
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Nov 19, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum 0 155 of 265 58% 179 of 290 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:01
Marcin Tybura 0 127 of 257 49% 137 of 269 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fabrício Werdum 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 43 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:02
Marcin Tybura 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Fabrício Werdum 0 32 of 54 59% 32 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 0 28 of 50 56% 31 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Fabrício Werdum 0 45 of 62 72% 46 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Marcin Tybura 0 26 of 49 53% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Fabrício Werdum 0 20 of 35 57% 42 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:31
Marcin Tybura 0 14 of 27 51% 18 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
5 Fabrício Werdum 0 38 of 73 52% 38 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 0 42 of 94 44% 43 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fabrício Werdum 155 of 265 58% 104 of 209 32 of 35 19 of 21 137 of 239 15 of 23 3 of 3
Marcin Tybura 127 of 257 49% 83 of 202 13 of 20 31 of 35 118 of 242 8 of 14 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fabrício Werdum 20 of 41 48% 13 of 33 4 of 5 3 of 3 20 of 38 0 of 3 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 17 of 37 45% 8 of 25 3 of 4 6 of 8 16 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Fabrício Werdum 32 of 54 59% 19 of 41 8 of 8 5 of 5 30 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 28 of 50 56% 17 of 36 4 of 7 7 of 7 25 of 44 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Fabrício Werdum 45 of 62 72% 31 of 46 11 of 12 3 of 4 39 of 53 6 of 9 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 26 of 49 53% 16 of 36 3 of 4 7 of 9 24 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
4 Fabrício Werdum 20 of 35 57% 15 of 29 2 of 2 3 of 4 12 of 25 5 of 7 3 of 3
Marcin Tybura 14 of 27 51% 9 of 21 1 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 24 1 of 2 1 of 1
5 Fabrício Werdum 38 of 73 52% 26 of 60 7 of 8 5 of 5 36 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 42 of 94 44% 33 of 84 2 of 3 7 of 7 41 of 93 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Walt Harris
Submission (armbar) R1 1:05 · UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Oct 07, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Walt Harris 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fabrício Werdum 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Walt Harris 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fabrício Werdum 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Walt Harris 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fabrício Werdum 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Walt Harris 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · Jul 08, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 1 49 of 115 42% 107 of 176 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:39
Fabrício Werdum 0 21 of 38 55% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Fabrício Werdum 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 39 33% 23 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Fabrício Werdum 0 10 of 16 62% 16 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Alistair Overeem 1 24 of 46 52% 72 of 97 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Fabrício Werdum 0 6 of 12 50% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 49 of 115 42% 28 of 84 9 of 17 12 of 14 37 of 94 5 of 11 7 of 10
Fabrício Werdum 21 of 38 55% 15 of 32 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 12 of 30 40% 2 of 16 1 of 5 9 of 9 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alistair Overeem 13 of 39 33% 6 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 5 12 of 35 1 of 3 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 10 of 16 62% 6 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alistair Overeem 24 of 46 52% 20 of 40 4 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 29 4 of 8 7 of 9
Fabrício Werdum 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Travis Browne
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Sep 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum 1 84 of 142 59% 107 of 166 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:30
Travis Browne 0 37 of 143 25% 38 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fabrício Werdum 1 37 of 59 62% 60 of 83 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:30
Travis Browne 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Fabrício Werdum 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Travis Browne 0 11 of 42 26% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Fabrício Werdum 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Travis Browne 0 14 of 71 19% 14 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fabrício Werdum 84 of 142 59% 41 of 91 24 of 32 19 of 19 66 of 123 10 of 10 8 of 9
Travis Browne 37 of 143 25% 27 of 123 4 of 11 6 of 9 35 of 140 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fabrício Werdum 37 of 59 62% 22 of 39 8 of 13 7 of 7 21 of 42 8 of 8 8 of 9
Travis Browne 12 of 30 40% 9 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Fabrício Werdum 19 of 39 48% 7 of 25 8 of 10 4 of 4 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Travis Browne 11 of 42 26% 6 of 34 1 of 3 4 of 5 11 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Fabrício Werdum 28 of 44 63% 12 of 27 8 of 9 8 of 8 26 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Travis Browne 14 of 71 19% 12 of 62 1 of 6 1 of 3 14 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Stipe Miocic
KO (punch) R1 2:47 · UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic · May 14, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stipe Miocic 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Fabrício Werdum 1 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stipe Miocic 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Fabrício Werdum 1 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stipe Miocic 15 of 33 45% 5 of 20 4 of 5 6 of 8 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 20 of 31 64% 10 of 21 1 of 1 9 of 9 16 of 27 1 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stipe Miocic 15 of 33 45% 5 of 20 4 of 5 6 of 8 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 20 of 31 64% 10 of 21 1 of 1 9 of 9 16 of 27 1 of 1 3 of 3
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Big Brady picks Fabricio Werdum, citing a favorable stylistic matchup due to Werdum's superior submission game and Oleinik's poor ground game. He expects Werdum to take Oleinik down early and finish with ground and pound or submission, likely in the first round. He notes the line at minus 320 is steep but believes it's a good matchup.

Werdum by first round TKO/submission; fight ends inside first round
"I like Verdoom here. Um, due to the fact that I think it's a good, uh, stylistic match up for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Daniel Levi picks Fabricio Werdum, stating he is the better striker and has the ground game to handle Oleinik's submissions. He notes Oleinik is reckless and makes mistakes, and that Werdum's improved striking and Thai clinch will be key. Levi expects Werdum to capitalize on Oleinik's errors and win inside the distance.

Werdum inside the distance
"I'm actually gonna go with Fabricio Vacaville or doom here to win this fight inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Matt picks Werdum but thinks the -300 line is too wide due to Werdum's long layoff and age. He believes Werdum has the advantage on the feet and can finish Oleinik in the second round, but he is hesitant to bet at the current price. He would consider a bet if the line drops to -250.

Werdum by second-round TKO, fight doesn't go to decision (-250)
"I'm gonna pick over doom to win here but that line is a little bit too wide for me"