Career Averages - Katlyn Cerminara
Career Averages - Jennifer Maia
Katlyn Cerminara - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 66 of 152 | 43% | 99 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 84 of 150 | 56% | 122 of 189 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 29 of 40 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 31 of 48 | 64% | 46 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 35 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 66 of 152 | 43% | 44 of 122 | 21 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 43 of 124 | 23 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 84 of 150 | 56% | 59 of 121 | 18 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 107 | 36 of 39 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 22 of 32 | 68% | 9 of 18 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 31 of 48 | 64% | 26 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 20 of 22 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 24 of 56 | 42% | 20 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 22 of 48 | 45% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 20 of 64 | 31% | 15 of 54 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 31 of 54 | 57% | 21 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 41 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.
Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.
Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.
Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.
Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.
The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 76 of 286 | 26% | 76 of 286 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 98 of 279 | 35% | 99 of 280 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 25 of 86 | 29% | 25 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 29 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 23 of 94 | 24% | 23 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 43 of 95 | 45% | 43 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 28 of 106 | 26% | 28 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 26 of 100 | 26% | 27 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 76 of 286 | 26% | 35 of 223 | 21 of 40 | 20 of 23 | 72 of 278 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 98 of 279 | 35% | 58 of 225 | 16 of 28 | 24 of 26 | 96 of 273 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 25 of 86 | 29% | 13 of 65 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 9 | 25 of 84 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 29 of 84 | 34% | 15 of 64 | 4 of 10 | 10 of 10 | 29 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 23 of 94 | 24% | 12 of 74 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 91 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 43 of 95 | 45% | 29 of 76 | 7 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 28 of 106 | 26% | 10 of 84 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 103 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 26 of 100 | 26% | 14 of 85 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 24 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo leans Manon Fiorot, citing her superior striking, power, and takedowns. He acknowledges that Katlyn Chookagian knows how to win decisions and could steal a close fight, but believes Fiorot should be better everywhere. He advises no money or parlays on Fiorot.
Big Brady picks Fiorot to win by decision. He highlights Fiorot's power advantage and ability to mix in takedowns, noting she took down black belts Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva. Cerminara has low striking accuracy (35%) and poor takedown defense (54%). He believes Fiorot can land the more impactful shots and control the fight on the ground if needed.
Cody is sold on Fiorot, calling her the best in the division not named Valentina. He notes her speed, power, and complete game, and that she has been rolling through opponents. He thinks Chookagian's volume lacks impact and that Fiorot is better in every aspect. Cody expects Fiorot to win and eventually challenge for the title.
Connor picks Cerminara, believing she has improved her boxing and ability to create memorable contact, making her a consistent round winner. He notes that Fiorot is often one-and-done with her striking and leaves openings, which Cerminara can exploit. He sees this as a natural gatekeeper role for Cerminara against a rising prospect.
Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He thinks Fiorot can match or surpass Katlyn Cerminara's volume while minimizing strikes absorbed, citing Fiorot's 70% defense. He notes Fiorot has takedown defense and has landed takedowns herself. Levi respects Cerminara's experience and ability to win decisions, but believes Fiorot is the more promising fighter with fewer holes. He does not see value at -215 but picks Fiorot to pass this test.
Fiorot does the same thing as Chookagian but with more power and efficiency. She has good takedown defense and can redirect momentum. Chookagian may try to grapple, but Fiorot is stronger in the clinch. Fiorot by decision at -110 is a better line than the moneyline.
Paul likely picks Fiorot but is not confident, noting that it could be a close striking battle. He mentions Chookagian's experience and that Fiorot is still improving. Paul thinks Fiorot should win but acknowledges it could be a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) by TKO. He believes Fiorot's stand-up is superior and that she will hurt Chookagian with body kicks, then swarm for a TKO. He notes Chookagian's tendency for close decisions and Fiorot's youth and improvement.
Zane picks Fiorot, citing her size, power, and ability to make Cerminara uncomfortable. He notes that Cerminara has struggled against good athletes who can get to her, and Fiorot's strength and reach will pose problems. He acknowledges it's a coin flip but leans on Fiorot's power and the fact that Cerminara's recent wins have been against smaller opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 63 of 222 | 28% | 71 of 230 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 55 of 169 | 32% | 84 of 204 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 62 | 32% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 7 of 34 | 20% | 15 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 24 of 61 | 39% | 27 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 28 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 19 of 99 | 19% | 19 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 33 of 89 | 37% | 41 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 63 of 222 | 28% | 42 of 175 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 56 of 210 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 55 of 169 | 32% | 28 of 124 | 8 of 23 | 19 of 22 | 49 of 156 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 62 | 32% | 13 of 46 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 59 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 7 of 34 | 20% | 5 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 24 of 61 | 39% | 17 of 48 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 15 of 46 | 32% | 7 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 19 of 99 | 19% | 12 of 81 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 33 of 89 | 37% | 16 of 62 | 5 of 14 | 12 of 13 | 32 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.
Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 72 of 177 | 40% | 81 of 188 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 52 of 171 | 30% | 60 of 180 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 15 of 49 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 23 of 90 | 25% | 24 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 72 of 177 | 40% | 44 of 136 | 21 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 68 of 171 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 52 of 171 | 30% | 31 of 143 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 20 | 48 of 167 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 16 of 41 | 39% | 8 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 14 of 32 | 43% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 51 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 15 of 49 | 30% | 9 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 36 of 85 | 42% | 26 of 69 | 7 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 23 of 90 | 25% | 15 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.
Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.
Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.
Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.
The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.
Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 127 of 292 | 43% | 135 of 300 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 89 of 196 | 45% | 129 of 238 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 43 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 58 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 55 of 125 | 44% | 55 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 35 of 92 | 38% | 35 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 127 of 292 | 43% | 87 of 236 | 31 of 46 | 9 of 10 | 121 of 286 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 89 of 196 | 45% | 60 of 162 | 24 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 85 of 192 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 37 of 91 | 40% | 21 of 67 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 32 of 56 | 57% | 17 of 38 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 76 | 46% | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 55 of 125 | 44% | 42 of 107 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 54 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 35 of 92 | 38% | 24 of 79 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.
Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.
The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.
Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 69 of 230 | 30% | 69 of 230 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 60 of 197 | 30% | 60 of 197 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 27 of 72 | 37% | 27 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 21 of 60 | 35% | 21 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 24 of 80 | 30% | 24 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 17 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 18 of 78 | 23% | 18 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 22 of 66 | 33% | 22 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 69 of 230 | 30% | 45 of 190 | 11 of 22 | 13 of 18 | 68 of 227 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 60 of 197 | 30% | 31 of 134 | 17 of 46 | 12 of 17 | 59 of 196 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 27 of 72 | 37% | 11 of 51 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 27 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 21 of 60 | 35% | 11 of 42 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 24 of 80 | 30% | 19 of 71 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 17 of 71 | 23% | 8 of 51 | 6 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 18 of 78 | 23% | 15 of 68 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 22 of 66 | 33% | 12 of 41 | 7 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.
Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.
The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.
The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 1 | 28 of 43 | 65% | 62 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 1 | 28 of 43 | 65% | 62 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 53 | 35% | 7 of 35 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 41 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 28 of 43 | 65% | 11 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 53 | 35% | 7 of 35 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 41 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 28 of 43 | 65% | 11 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Andrade despite the size disadvantage, citing her superior wrestling and power. He notes Chookagian has poor takedown defense and is often out-landed but wins decisions due to volume. He expects Andrade to close the distance, get takedowns, and land harder shots, winning a decision. He is wary of judges favoring Chookagian.
The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade because she has fought at a higher level in strawweight and has the skills to pressure and beat Cerminara. He worries about Andrade's height disadvantage but believes she can take the fight to the ground and win the later rounds. He expects Andrade to win the second and third rounds, possibly losing the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 73 of 108 | 67% | 200 of 240 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 70 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 18 of 21 | 85% | 83 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 63 | 55% | 47 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 73 of 108 | 67% | 55 of 81 | 12 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 22 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 55 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 25 of 64 | 39% | 14 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 24 | 83% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 18 of 21 | 85% | 16 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 19 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 63 | 55% | 22 of 43 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 17 of 54 | 31% | 11 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.
Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.
Jennifer Maia - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 60 of 126 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 64 of 100 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 41 of 101 | 40% | 29 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 31 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 14 of 30 | 46% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 29 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 8 of 14 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Jennifer Maia, calling her at -141 a great deal. He thinks she is better everywhere except raw takedowns, and expects her to weather Araújo's early storm, take over striking, and win a decision due to superior cardio. He already placed a unit on her and expects the line to widen.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo with little confidence. He likes her striking and wrestling advantage early, but worries about her poor cardio and durability. He expects Araújo to win the first round, Maia the third, and the fight to go to a close decision that could be affected by judges.
Cody picks Araújo, citing her superior speed and technique. He notes that at her best, she is faster and cleaner than Maia, and can mix in takedowns to steal rounds. He acknowledges her past cardio issues but believes she has corrected them in recent fights, pointing to her performances against Andrea Lee and Alexa Grasso. He expects a 15-minute fight and thinks Araújo can win two of three rounds.
The host picks Jennifer Maia, citing her superior experience, cardio, and ability to withstand Araújo's early striking. He expects Maia to take over in the second and third rounds, possibly using takedowns to wear on Araújo. He predicts a decision win for Maia.
Paul leans towards Maia based on her high volume in recent fights (109 and 145 significant strikes). He acknowledges Araújo's takedown threat but notes that judges now require control time and damage from top position. He expects a close decision and thinks Maia's volume will edge it. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds at -450 as a potential play.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araújo. He thinks Maia has better boxing and is scrappier. He notes Araújo is on a two-fight losing streak and didn't look good against Amanda Ribas, while Maia is on a two-fight winning streak, including a win over Casey O'Neill. He expects a decision win for Maia, calling it a coin flip but leaning her way due to momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 145 of 349 | 41% | 151 of 355 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 137 of 264 | 51% | 137 of 264 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 113 | 41% | 48 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 43 of 96 | 44% | 43 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 51 of 119 | 42% | 55 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 117 | 40% | 48 of 118 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 145 of 349 | 41% | 123 of 321 | 11 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 124 of 321 | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 137 of 264 | 51% | 108 of 226 | 24 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 129 of 254 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 113 | 41% | 37 of 101 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 108 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 43 of 96 | 44% | 35 of 85 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 41 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 51 of 119 | 42% | 44 of 109 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 46 of 112 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 36 of 70 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 117 | 40% | 42 of 111 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 101 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 37 of 71 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 79 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill but is not betting. He thinks O'Neill will come forward with volume and wrestling, but her takedown defense was exposed against Roxanne. He notes Jennifer Maia is well-rounded and tough, and could cause problems if she gets takedowns. He expects a close fight.
Big Brady picks O'Neill, noting Maia refuses to wrestle despite being a black belt. He believes if Maia went for takedowns she would win, but she won't. On the feet, O'Neill has higher output and will win a decision. He is not a big fan of O'Neill but likes her stylistically here.
Cody picks Maia as an underdog, citing the 'dog or pass' strategy in women's MMA. He notes O'Neill is young, green, and pushed too fast, while Maia is a veteran who fought for a title. He thinks Maia's experience and clinch strength could be factors, but acknowledges O'Neill's wrestling and top control are threats. He expects to lose but trusts the long-term underdog strategy.
Connor picks Maia because she is a tough, durable fighter who is difficult to take down off the cage. He notes that Maia has improved her boxing and aggression, landing left hooks and combinations. O'Neill relies on size and aggression but has poor defense and footwork. Connor thinks Maia's defensive wrestling and low center of gravity will neutralize O'Neill's takedowns. He also mentions that O'Neill's wild style leaves openings that Maia can exploit with straight punches.
Jacob is a big fan of Casey O'Neill and picks her to win a close decision. He thinks her experience against Roxanne prepared her for a similar pressure fighter in Maia. He notes O'Neill has a bad [__] in the octagon and will find a way to win in a close fight. He expects a 29-28 decision.
O'Neill is coming back from a devastating knee injury but is young and trains at a high level. Maia is a BJJ black belt who prefers striking, and her experience could be a factor. O'Neill's strength and aggression should allow her to grind out a decision, but there are many question marks. No betting interest at the current line.
Paul picks O'Neill but is hesitant. He notes O'Neill's grappling advantage and thinks she can win on volume and takedowns. However, he points out O'Neill didn't look great against Roxanne Modafferi and struggled early against Antonina Shevchenko. He thinks minus 180 is too high and prefers O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He says it will be dicey and your butt will be puckered until the final bell.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Casey O'Neill, going against the majority. He notes O'Neill looked suspect against Roxanne Modafferi and gets caught on the feet, while Maia has crisp boxing and a good submission game. Maia has gone the distance with Valentina Shevchenko and given problems to top fighters. He believes Maia is underrated and O'Neill is overhyped as a prospect.
Zane also picks Maia, noting that O'Neill is a prospect who has beaten lower-level competition. Maia is a gatekeeper who has only lost to title challengers. Zane highlights Maia's improved boxing and her ability to stuff takedowns, especially off the cage. He thinks O'Neill's takedowns are low-drive and will be neutralized. Zane also points out that O'Neill's defensive flaws will be exposed by Maia's steady output. He believes the odds should be reversed and that Maia is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 109 of 253 | 43% | 117 of 261 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 80 of 272 | 29% | 84 of 276 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 13 of 61 | 21% | 13 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 41 of 110 | 37% | 41 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 41 of 114 | 35% | 41 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 38 of 85 | 44% | 40 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 26 of 97 | 26% | 30 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 109 of 253 | 43% | 84 of 224 | 14 of 18 | 11 of 11 | 101 of 242 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Maryna Moroz | 80 of 272 | 29% | 55 of 237 | 14 of 23 | 11 of 12 | 78 of 269 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 30 of 58 | 51% | 23 of 49 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Maryna Moroz | 13 of 61 | 21% | 9 of 52 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 41 of 110 | 37% | 34 of 102 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Maryna Moroz | 41 of 114 | 35% | 26 of 96 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 41 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 38 of 85 | 44% | 27 of 73 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 77 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Maryna Moroz | 26 of 97 | 26% | 20 of 89 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 95 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 37 of 121 | 30% | 56 of 141 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 83 of 138 | 60% | 101 of 157 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 34 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 5 of 20 | 25% | 23 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 37 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 16 of 44 | 36% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 30 of 46 | 65% | 30 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 37 of 121 | 30% | 23 of 103 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 111 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Jennifer Maia | 83 of 138 | 60% | 40 of 91 | 24 of 28 | 19 of 19 | 76 of 131 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 16 of 57 | 28% | 9 of 48 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 34 of 68 | 50% | 13 of 46 | 11 of 12 | 10 of 10 | 32 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 5 of 20 | 25% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jennifer Maia | 19 of 24 | 79% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 16 of 44 | 36% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 30 of 46 | 65% | 14 of 27 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Second verse, same as the first: the previous fight featured flyweights that drew unexpectedly low card placement given their relative place in their division, and the same can be said between the no. 4 Maia (19-8-1, 4-4 UFC) and the 13th ranked female flyweight known as “The Beast” Fiorot (8-1, 3-0 UFC). Drawing the charge for this interesting style matchup is referee Herb Dean, who gets a huge pop from the crowd. Dean who will know before anyone else whether Maia holds the line or if Fiorot can crash through to the top five. There is no glove touch, and instead the Frenchwoman wants to start striking, with side kicks to the lead leg. Maia replies with a straight left hand, and they both throw hands at the same time. Fiorot’s hands are faster, and her intercepting kicks are effective when Maia comes forward. Fiorot scores a few more kicks as Maia bears down on her, and she scores two or three punches before Maia can reach her. Maia is not deterred, as she continues to walk through body kicks to swing with heavy punches. Fiorot tags her opponent with a straight right hand, and she breaks it up with punches to the body as Maia looks to almost exclusively box with her. Fiorot lets Maia come at her so she can counter quickly and slip away to score kicks on the outside. “The Beast” lets go with a head kick, and Maia shrugs it off to score with a big left hand. Fiorot is forced to shake it off, and Maia lands another on the chin. Fiorot preemptively counters an advancing Maia with a left hook a few times, and she is doing damage to Maia’s lead leg as well with sharp kicks. The punches from the French kickboxer have opened up the nose of her foe, and Maia rushes ahead to try to tie her up. When Fiorot turns her around, Maia wings a quick elbow that gets Fiorot’s attention. Fiorot responds with a thudding body kick, and Maia tries to pay her back with an overhand right but is just out of reach. Fiorot slips the blow and dings her with a left hand, and Maia greets her with a right hand counter. Maia takes a leg kick so that she can swarm ahead, and she goes up high with a kick that stings Fiorot. The Frenchwoman threatens with a takedown, and Maia turns her around with ease until Fiorot pushes off. Fiorot scores a side kick to the midsection, and she lands a clean left hand right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Round 2
The round begins with Maia coming out aggressively. Fiorot catches her coming in with a kick to the body, but she cannot slow her as Maia tags her with a couple punches. Suddenly, Fiorot changes levels and hits a clean takedown right in the middle of the cage, putting the Brazilian on her back. Maia sits up and threatens to sweep, and Fiorot hacks at her with elbows to make her sit back down. Maia keeps a high guard, keeping Fiorot honest with a triangle setup. Fiorot sits up and has her leg snagged by Maia, who latches on to an ankle lock. Fiorot rushes to get back to her feet, and Maia goes right after her hips to hit a takedown of her own. As she looks to set up some sort of submission, Fiorot tosses her around and sets Maia on her back. Fiorot appears much more cautious this time in Maia’s guard, not willing to sit up and put herself in submission danger. Instead, Fiorot springs back up to her feet, not interested in playing the ground game anymore. Maia follows her back upright, and Fiorot gets off several kicks to the body. Maia cannot reach her as Fiorot snipes her from afar, and the Frenchwoman catches Maia on the way in and dumps her to the mat. Maia scrambles to get back up and boots Fiorot in the head, and Fiorot is in big trouble as she adjusts her top and tries to get her legs about her. Maia goes after another high kick, and Fiorot blocks it and is still trying to shake out the cobwebs. Maia gives chase, whiffing on another head kick and walking face-first into a punch. Maia comes up short on a Superwoman punch, and Fiorot circles away until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Round 3
The third round begins with Maia once more pressing the action, and she tries to engage in a brawl as Fiorot wants to stay on the outside with side kicks to the body. Fiorot looks to keep her distance, but Maia will not have it, pushing the pace and clinching her up. Maia cannot keep her tied up for long, and Fiorot returns to her preferred range with long, prodding kicks. The Brazilian continuously comes forward, only to absorb kicks to the body and legs. Maia starts to work on Fiorot’s lead leg, and Fiorot plants her feet to go after a hook kick. Maia blocks it and sprints ahead to go after a body lock takedown, and although she hits it, Fiorot spins her around and rolls through to stand back up. Maia advances without cutting her opponent off, absorbing kicks flush without being able to answer back. Fiorot jumps forward with a knee that slams into Maia’s guard, and Maia rubs her nose and marches onward. Maia takes a punch on the chin so that she can set up a thudding body kick, and Fiorot replies in kind with a side kick to the torso. Maia walks right into a kick to her chest, and she completely ignores it and brushes past a crescent kick in order to tie up the Frenchwoman. Maia goes to clinch, and Fiorot pushes away. Maia attacks with a high kick when Fiorot goes low, and Maia kicks the body and slips back when Fiorot spins with a kick. Maia hears the 10-second clapper and begins to bull-rush her adversary, throwing hands right until the bitter end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Maia (29-28 Fiorot)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Jennifer Maia via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Manon Fiorot, citing her nasty striking, killer instinct, and finishing power. He notes that Jennifer Maia's 33% takedown accuracy and only two takedowns in eight UFC fights won't be enough to get her out of danger against Fiorot's striking. He acknowledges Maia's experience and well-roundedness but believes Fiorot's striking differential and ability to work back to her feet make the difference.
Big Brady picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He states that Maia does not use her grappling, averaging only 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, and will not win a striking fight against Fiorot. He notes that Fiorot is a big favorite and the line is widening. He cautions that Fiorot should not take Maia down, as Maia is dangerous off her back, but expects Fiorot to out-strike her.
Cody picks Fiorot, comparing her to Caitlin Chookagian who outpointed Maia. He notes Fiorot's mobility, karate background, and striking variety. He thinks Maia is slow and will be outpointed. He likes Fiorot by decision prop.
Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, believing she will outpoint Maia with her sidekicks and volume. He notes Maia has the tools to win via takedowns but doesn't trust her to execute early enough. He thinks Fiorot is a legit prospect and will win on the scorecards, but the price (-400) is too high to bet. He calls it a dog or pass situation.
The host is high on Fiorot, citing her striking improvement, size advantage, and ability to replicate the game plan Catelyn Chookagian used against Maia. He expects Fiorot to keep the fight standing, use her speed and power, and potentially get a finish. He notes Maia is on short notice and that Fiorot's takedown defense and balance are strong.
Paul picks Fiorot, expecting her to win a decision. He notes her range weapons and pace will break Maia. He thinks Maia is durable but slow and flat-footed. He prefers Fiorot by decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Jennifer Maia, calling it a massive risk that no one is talking about. He notes Maia's grappling ability (taking down Shevchenko for a round) but believes Fiorot's takedown defense and physical strength will hold up. The Guru expects Fiorot to cruise to a 30-27 decision with power shots, as Maia may be hesitant to press in due to the power difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 72 of 177 | 40% | 81 of 188 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 52 of 171 | 30% | 60 of 180 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 15 of 49 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 23 of 90 | 25% | 24 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 72 of 177 | 40% | 44 of 136 | 21 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 68 of 171 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 52 of 171 | 30% | 31 of 143 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 20 | 48 of 167 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 16 of 41 | 39% | 8 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 14 of 32 | 43% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 51 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 15 of 49 | 30% | 9 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 36 of 85 | 42% | 26 of 69 | 7 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 23 of 90 | 25% | 15 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.
Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.
Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.
Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.
The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.
Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 98 of 265 | 36% | 102 of 269 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 100 of 276 | 36% | 104 of 281 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 34 of 97 | 35% | 35 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 34 of 103 | 33% | 34 of 103 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 34 of 85 | 40% | 36 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 32 of 89 | 35% | 36 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 30 of 83 | 36% | 31 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 34 of 84 | 40% | 34 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 98 of 265 | 36% | 71 of 232 | 16 of 20 | 11 of 13 | 88 of 250 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 100 of 276 | 36% | 56 of 224 | 24 of 29 | 20 of 23 | 98 of 273 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 34 of 97 | 35% | 18 of 80 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 33 of 93 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 34 of 103 | 33% | 21 of 86 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 32 of 100 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 34 of 85 | 40% | 26 of 74 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 28 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 32 of 89 | 35% | 15 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 32 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 30 of 83 | 36% | 27 of 78 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 79 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 34 of 84 | 40% | 20 of 68 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 34 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Maia, stating she is better everywhere. He notes Maia has good jiu-jitsu and underrated striking, while Eye is a step behind and struggles when bullied. He expects Maia to close distance, grapple, and win a decision. He suggests a prop bet on unanimous decision for plus odds.
Big Brady picks Jennifer Maia to win by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Maia should take the fight to the ground, but she has only attempted four takedowns in her entire UFC career. He thinks if she gets one takedown, she can ride out the round. He acknowledges the striking is close and that Eye has more volume. He is concerned about the -200 line and says he would never bet that. He picks Maia based on the assumption she fights smart.
Cody picks Maia, noting her improvement and grappling advantage. He thinks Eye has declined and has weight issues. He expects Maia to use takedowns and control to win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Jennifer Maia. He notes that Maia is in the best spot of her career, coming off a first-round finish of Joanne Calderwood and a win over Roxanne Modafferi, and even won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. He questions whether Maia will be motivated after the title loss. He also notes that Jessica Eye has looked unmotivated in recent losses and is a hot-and-cold fighter. He thinks Maia is stronger but acknowledges Eye is capable of surprising.
Jacob also picks Maia, citing her shoot boxing background and precise hands. He notes Eye is experienced but inconsistent. He is hesitant to put Maia in his lineup due to Eye's potential to surprise, but he leans Maia. He mentions he would wait to see what Dan thinks.
I'm taking Jessica Eye at plus money. The line on Maia is too high due to recency bias from her performance against Valentina. Maia is not a takedown artist; she's a striker. Eye has good volume and pressure, as seen in her wins over Viviane Araujo and Catlin Chookagian. I think this fight should be a pick'em, and Eye has value. I expect a close decision, possibly a split, and I'm on Eye.
Paul picks Maia, noting Eye's recent poor performances and weight miss. He thinks Maia's grappling and pressure will be key. He expects Maia to win by decision.
The Guru picks Maia by 30-27 unanimous decision, but calls the fight excruciatingly boring. He expects Eye to try boxing combinations, while Maia will push her against the cage, similar to how Maia did against Valentina Shevchenko. Maia will stall against the cage with knees, body shots, foot stomps, and occasional takedowns, winning every round in a dull affair.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 62 of 119 | 52% | 249 of 317 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 9:34 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 36 of 88 | 40% | 94 of 152 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 47 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 41 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 29 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 30 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 68 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 5 of 23 | 21% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 63 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 28 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 62 of 119 | 52% | 46 of 100 | 13 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 50 of 103 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 |
| Jennifer Maia | 36 of 88 | 40% | 22 of 72 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 73 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jennifer Maia | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 7 of 9 | 77% | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 8 of 22 | 36% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 5 of 19 | 26% | 2 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 5 of 23 | 21% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 35 of 61 | 57% | 25 of 51 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 53 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 18 of 31 | 58% | 12 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by third-round knockout. He states she is clearly the better fighter and arguably the women's GOAT behind Nunes. He expects her to finish Maia within the first few rounds.
Daniel picks Shevchenko to win by knockout, dismissing any chance of an upset. He notes Maia has been knocked out before and that Shevchenko is a dominant champion. He expects a finish, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.
The host picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by second or third round KO. He believes she is superior everywhere and will finish Maia, who he views as a lamb brought to slaughter. He recommends betting Shevchenko inside the distance rather than the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (50-45). He expects a boring fight where Shevchenko outstrikes Maia on the feet and stuffs her takedowns. He criticizes Maia's competition and believes Shevchenko is the queen of a graveyard division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 31 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 31 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 26 of 49 | 53% | 6 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 11 of 15 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Joanne Wood | 20 of 37 | 54% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 26 of 49 | 53% | 6 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 11 of 15 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Joanne Wood | 20 of 37 | 54% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) to win by decision. He thinks she is the better overall fighter with higher volume striking and improved ground game. He notes that her striking should be sharp because she was preparing to fight Valentina Shevchenko. However, he expresses caution due to recent poor luck betting on women's MMA fights.
Daniel picks Joanne Wood, citing her higher output and well-roundedness. He notes that she doesn't have to worry about takedown threats from Maia and should outland her with kicks and volume. He expects a decision win.
The host picks Joanne Wood, citing her evolution in mixing wrestling with striking, and notes that Jennifer Maia has poor get-up game when taken down, as seen in the Alexis Davis fight. He believes Wood will take Maia down and grind out a decision, despite Maia having a slight edge in pure Muay Thai. He also mentions Wood's training at Syndicate MMA and her motivation for a title shot.
The host picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) but expresses hesitation, noting that neither fighter has beaten elite competition. He believes Calderwood is bigger, stronger, and rangier for the division, and can keep the fight standing where she has a range advantage. He acknowledges the lack of clear evidence but goes with Calderwood due to her physical advantages.
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