UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 38
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 242 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 47
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jairzinho Rozenstruik
3.48 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Andrei Arlovski
3.82 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.37 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Jairzinho Rozenstruik - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 25 of 60 41% 145 of 208 2 of 2 100% 0 0 6:17
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 17 of 55 30% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 11 of 23 47% 32 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 7 of 15 46% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sergei Pavlovich 0 3 of 19 15% 39 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 17 35% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sergei Pavlovich 0 11 of 18 61% 74 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 23 17% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 25 of 60 41% 21 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 17 of 55 30% 7 of 43 3 of 3 7 of 9 17 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 7 of 15 46% 0 of 8 2 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sergei Pavlovich 3 of 19 15% 2 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 17 35% 3 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sergei Pavlovich 11 of 18 61% 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 23 17% 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Round 1
Business picks up in the heavyweight division, where Pavlovich (18-3, 6-3 UFC) sets his sights on Rozenstruik (15-5, 9-5 UFC) in a three-round showcase. They have nine sub-minute finishes between them. Smith handles the refereeing duties. The former training partners are ready to go. They meet in the middle without a glove touch. Rozenstruik lands an inside leg kick. Pavlovich answers. The Russian paws with his jab, hoping to exploit his reach advantage. He follows a jab with a thudding overhand right but elects not to follow up. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Neither man looks to eager to throw midway through the round. Pavlovich flicks out his jab and steps forward behind another one-two. Rozenstruik rolls with it. Action somewhat tepid thus far. Low kicks from both men. Smith warns Pavlovich about extending his fingers. The Russian connects with an overhand right. Rozenstruik loses his balance while avoiding an overhand right and winds up on his back, pinned beneath his monstrous counterpart. Pavlovich works his ground-and-pound in half guard. Thirty seconds to go. Body-head shots from the Russian, who looks to have salted away this round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich

Round 2
And away we go for the second round. Rozenstruik feints a low kick and thinks better of it. Pavlovich probes with his jab. Rozenstruik down blocks a front kick to the body. Pavlovich resets, keeps his head and feet moving and hunts for potential openings. Again, neither man eager to throw. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Pavlovich steps forward with a left hook, then evades the return fire. Fans growing restless with the inactivity. Pavlovich connects with a counter right hook, drives forward and secures a takedown. He lands in half guard and throws his ground-and-pound into gear. Pavlovich swings his left hand into the Surinamese kickboxer’s head repeatedly, doing more than enough to avoid a restart. Rozenstruik going nowhere with less than a minute on the clock. Looks like he will head to the third round in a significant hole on the scorecards. Pavlovich peppers him with short punches until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich

Round 3
Rozenstruik likely needs a finish here. The flick jabs at one another. Pavlovich lands with a left hook. Smith asks for more action. They trade powerful left hooks. Neither man goes down. More jabs from both man. Pavlovich steps into a body lock behind an overhand right and secures a takedown. With three minutes to go, Rozenstruik’s situation has grown downright dire. He has shown no ability to get back to his feet thus far. Pavlovich works in half guard, scoring with left hands to the body and forearm strikes to the head. Rozenstruik still flat on his back at the base of his cage. Pavlovich staying busy, even though he has not yet landed anything of consequence. He mixes left hands to the body with rights to the head. Rozenstruik gets to his knees with a minute to go and finally gets back to his feet. They separate with 30 seconds on the clock. Pavlovich buckles his opponent with a counter left hook. Rozenstruik lunges in with a left hook, but the Hail Mary finish he seeks fails to materialize.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking and counter-striking ability. He notes that Sergei Pavlovich struggles against a jab, as seen in his loss to Volkov. He believes Rozenstruik's Muay Thai and patience will allow him to frustrate Pavlovich and take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Pavlovich's power and speed but thinks Rozenstruik's technique wins.

"I think jarino wins he's the more technical Striker and I think that's what's going to matter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady thinks Sergei Pavlovich needs to be aggressive to win. He notes Pavlovich looked terrible against Volkov when he wasn't aggressive, but when he rushes forward he knocks people out. Brady believes if Pavlovich brings aggression, he will sleep Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the first round. He chalks up the Volkov fight to them being friends/training partners.

first round knockout
"if he brings the aggressiveness in this fight I think he sleeps Rosen stro in round one so I'll say pavich pavlovich to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Connor picks Pavlovich, believing he can overwhelm Rozenstruik early with his power. He notes that Rozenstruik is a trigger counter puncher who stands with locked knees, making him vulnerable to a bull rush. Connor thinks Pavlovich's loss to Volkov was due to familiarity and that he will revert to his aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Pavlovich hesitates or tries to be technical, he will lose.

"I am actually going to take Pavlovitch here. Split with you once more, just because I think that part of the Volkov thing was he and Volkov being such longtime training partners, that it was actually just one of those …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

James picks Pavlovich to win by knockout in round one, but he is not confident and sees value on Rozenstruik. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to fade if he doesn't get an early KO, and that Rozenstruik has a chance to win by decision or knockout in later rounds. He mentions Rozenstruik's decision prop at +700 as a potential small play. He is undecided on betting Rozenstruik.

Rozenstruik by decision at +700 mentioned as a possible prop; also notes Rozenstruik has value at +275.
"I'm going to pick pavlovich to win via knockout in round one you know that's my official prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Rozenstruik is the technically better striker and will use his mobility, straight jabs, and counters to pick apart Pavlovich's wild combinations. He is expected to win on the scorecards.

"Rozenstruik is the technically better striker here... look for Rozenstruik to pick apart Pavlovich and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round TKO. He believes Pavlovich has a great chin and will remind people he is a top heavyweight. He notes Rozenstruik was finished by Volkov and that Pavlovich took a beating from Volkov but never got finished. He expects a dominant performance.

first round TKO
"Sergey pavlovich I believe will get a first round T TKO this weekend"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Zane picks Rozenstruik, arguing that Pavlovich is a one-dimensional brawler who has not evolved. He notes that Rozenstruik is a durable counter puncher who can settle in and pick apart aggressive fighters. Zane believes Pavlovich's lack of a range game and poor fight IQ will be exposed, and that Rozenstruik's trigger countering will catch him coming in.

"I don't think he's going to beat Rosen Strike. The thing is, he absolutely can't. And it's not just like, oh, he can because he could go out there and solve the problem."
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 37 of 126 29% 37 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 91 of 184 49% 92 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 9 of 38 23% 9 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 69 52% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 67 53% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 37 of 126 29% 19 of 92 6 of 17 12 of 17 37 of 124 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 91 of 184 49% 58 of 146 12 of 16 21 of 22 86 of 177 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 9 of 38 23% 1 of 22 2 of 5 6 of 11 9 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 19 of 48 39% 5 of 32 4 of 6 10 of 10 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 38 34% 8 of 28 1 of 6 4 of 4 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 69 52% 27 of 57 4 of 6 5 of 6 33 of 65 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 15 of 50 30% 10 of 42 3 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 67 53% 26 of 57 4 of 4 6 of 6 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rozenstruik (-225), Tuivasa (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has thrown the crowd some red meat on the main card in the form of a good old-fashioned heavyweight slobberknocker. While Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 UFC) may have the kickboxing background and is a more technical man compared to his opponent, he does not shy away from throwing bungalows when the mood strikes him. Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 UFC) will feed him that mood as well as several punches, if he has anything to say about it. Referee Marc Goddard buckles up for what is about to come next. Happy as a clam to fight in front of a crowd that is drowning him with adoration, Tuivasa offers a fist bump that is gladly accepted. Rozenstruik moves to the center of the cage to start, and he stays away from a front kick lobbed at him. Rozenstruik snaps out a kick to the lead leg, and he lands one on the inside as well. Tuivasa gives him a kick back to think about, and Rozenstruik counters with a right over the top. Tuivasa kicks him again, and he leans back to dodge it. The Aussie absorbs another low kick and adjusts his shorts, and he sits down on a right hand when Rozenstruik inevitably chops at his front wheel again. Tuivasa uses several feints to draw out wide reactions, and he overkicks to turn himself around. Rozenstruik reaches him with a one-two, and he retreats before getting countered. Tuivasa sells out on another inaccurate kick, and Rozenstruik prods him with a jab. Rozenstruik gets in a left hook and a hard calf kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one coming back. They jab at the same time, and Rozenstruik paws out his left hook to measure. Tuivasa gets a front kick to land on the belly, and he winds up with a right hand and pulls it back as Rozenstruik flinches. Tuivasa chips with kicks on both sides, and he gets off a left hook and is met with a left to the chest. Tuivasa keeps his guard up to block a lead left hook, and he tries to jab his way in only to get met with quicker offense. Tuivasa misses with a low kick and dodges a looping strike in response, but Rozenstruik still gets him in the belly. Rozenstruik kicks his man in the side, and he gets clipped with two big hooks right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 2
The big men touch ‘em up to begin Round 2, and Rozenstruik leads behind several jabs. When Tuivasa tries to do the same, Rozenstruik chews up his front leg. Rozenstruik loads up and smashes Tuivasa in the side of the head with a right hand, and he manages to escape danger by a matter of inches when Tuivasa tries to retaliate. Tuivasa goes after his opponent with a right hand, and Rozenstruik is just out of range. Tuivasa stands firm, cracking Rozenstruik with a right hand, and Tuivasa absorbs a flush knee to the body on the way out. Tuivasa slugs with a right hand, and Rozenstruik turns the corner and strings several punches together. Tuivasa rebounds off the fencing, and he walks face-first into a right hand and a knee. Tuivasa backs his adversary to the wall but is not able to catch him with anything clean, and he is slowly working his way forward. Tuivasa engages with a hard right hand, and he releases a low kick that slams his foot into Rozenstruik’s knee. Tuivasa limps back, and Rozenstruik charges at him and lays into him with a mighty blitz of punches. Tuivasa gets cut on the right side of his face, and he starts firing back, backing Rozenstruik away and hurting him as well. Tuivasa shakes his foot out and struggles to put weight on it. Rozenstruik lines a one-two down the pipe, and a head kick that follows is blocked. Tuivasa catches Rozenstruik ducking down, but it is one-and-done. Rozenstruik lands a few kicks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
Gloves are touched to kick off the final round, much to the surprise of many that it got this far. Rozenstruik keeps behind his jab to stop Tuivasa from reaching him, and a leg kick after it is also effective. Tuivasa uses his own jab, but it is not able to reach the target. A right hand does, and Rozenstruik counters right back. Tuivasa is out of range of a front kick, and two jabs fall short as well. Rozenstruik snaps the head back with his own jab, and he kicks the body and escapes as Tuivasa lumbers towards him. Tuivasa finds his own with a left and then a right, and Rozenstruik scoots away from any further blows before stabbing out a jab. Tuivasa lands a stance-changing low kick, and he elbows Rozenstruik when Rozenstruik loads up on a left hand. Tuivasa walks through a jab to unload with a right, and Rozenstruik catches him with a right on the inside. Rozenstruik stays composed and watches massive right hands soar past him, and he pushes off with a front kick that adjusts Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa waves Goddard off, and he practically sprints at Rozenstruik with his right hand firing off. Rozenstruik’s head movement keeps him safe, and his jab peppers the Aussie again and again. Rozenstruik shields himself from the telegraphed bombs, and he gets up close and scores a short right hand. As Tuivasa goes wide, Rozenstruik pretends to smooth out his hair—he is bald, so it is a mocking gesture. Rozenstruik plods out with front kicks and jabs, keeping Tuivasa from getting his hands on him. Tuivasa sells out with big punches, and he points the ground to force a brawl. Rozenstruik does the same, and they blast one another with ferocious punches. This continues right to the final horn, and they have made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Tai Tuivasa via Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.

Will wait for prop bets to see value
"I see him stepping off Landing big on Tai I think Tai is going to lose and luckily I don't think it matters."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.

knockout in round 2
"I got to go Rosen stro I think Rosen str's a better Striker tied to Evas he's very hitable um he's been getting hurt in a lot of fights I think Rosen probably knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.

"I got to go with Logic on this one and say that Rosen structur that points him from range"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.

"I'm gonna go with Jero but like I've seen Jero get slept more than once is it gonna surprise me if he gets slept here not at all but P pick I'mma agree with uh him being the favorite here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.

Knockout prop (recommended for better line)
"give me biggie boy probably gonna knock him out you may like The Knockout prop on this fight if you want to get a better line on it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.

"give me taasa I'm gonna believe one more time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.

Rozenstruik by knockout
"give me Rosen strike and Rosen strike by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.

"it's pretty clearly dogger pass type of uh type of fight for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.

"I'm going to go with jinho rosenstrike I'm just not going to trust in Tito evasa anymore"
WIN vs Shamil Gaziev
TKO (retirement) R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 127 of 215 59% 140 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Shamil Gaziev 0 22 of 68 32% 27 of 75 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 31 41% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 8 of 18 44% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:46
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 19 of 41 46% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 47 of 75 62% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 5 of 19 26% 5 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 48 of 68 70% 52 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Shamil Gaziev 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 14 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 127 of 215 59% 78 of 158 30 of 37 19 of 20 123 of 209 4 of 6 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 22 of 68 32% 16 of 59 5 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 60 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 31 41% 8 of 25 2 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 1 of 2
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 19 of 41 46% 11 of 32 5 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 4 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 47 of 75 62% 24 of 48 16 of 19 7 of 8 47 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 5 of 19 26% 5 of 17 0 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 48 of 68 70% 35 of 53 7 of 9 6 of 6 45 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-148), Rozenstruik (+124)

Round 1
It’s all down to the heavyweights tonight. The big men sport nearly identical finish rates, with their primary method of victory by knockout, so referee Marc Goddard might not need to put in 25 minutes of work here. Former kickboxer Rozenstruik (13-5, 7-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to blunt the momentum of the undefeated Gaziev (12-0, 1-0 UFC), and he will have five rounds or less to spring the minor betting upset. They touch gloves respectfully, and prepare to handle their business. Rozenstruik circles to the outside, lands a leg kick, and gets himself ready to stop a takedown. Gaziev shoots, and he bounces off the fence when he misses. Rozenstruik strafes to the side and lands a right hand that makes Gaziev lick his lips. Rozenstruik scores a leg kick, and he comes up short on an overhand right. Rozenstruik paws out a jab, and his foe backs him to the fence. Gaziev crashes the pocket for a takedown, and Rozenstruik stands him up immediately and smacks him with a right hand. Rozenstruik jabs, and he avoids a huge right hand. Another Gaziev crashing takedown effort gets stopped in its tracks, and Rozenstruik busts his foe’s nose open with his fists. Gaziev shows little setup when he tries to take the fight down, and does not even bend over so much as he runs straight ahead. Rozenstruik briefly knocks him back with a one-two, and Gaziev gets right back to his constant forward pressure. Rozenstruik scores a right hand and then jabs his way out to safety. Gaziev swings as hard as he can with a left and a monstrous right, and Rozenstruik dodges by a matter of inches. Gaziev plods ahead and then lumbers into a clinch, swinging slow punches all the while. Gaziev drops down to scoop up a single, and he lifts the kickboxer up and slams him down. Gaziev connects with a few short punches from above, and keeps his weight pressed down heavily. The round ends with Gaziev sitting up measuring a strike.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 2
The big men reach Round 2, and Rozenstruik reintroduces himself with multiple snappy jabs. Gaziev lumbers forward, and Rozenstruik uses head movement to dodge the majority of the big punches coming from the Bahraini. Rozenstruik reaches out with punches and low kicks, and he smiles when eating a jab as they high-five from an exchange. Rozenstruik looks for two punches, and Gaziev sneaks a counter right around the top to back him away. Gaziev pushes out his own jab, and Rozenstruik goes to the body and then reaches out with a one-two. Gaziev smiles when he eats a jab, and he fails to land when swinging at the kickboxer. Gaziev drives a knee right to the belly, and Rozenstruik responds with a single jab. Gaziev swings with more of a hammerfist than a straight punch, and Rozenstruik chops at his lead leg when Gaziev slowly moves forward. Rozenstruik naps out his jab to decent effect, disrupting the oncoming Gaziev until Gaziev simply decides to rumble forward like a tank and go after a single. Rozenstruik uses the wall behind him to keep himself upright, and he pulls his leg down to stop the effort. The two trade knees to the gut, and Gaziev presses tightly to control “Bigi Boy.” Rozenstruik gets in a few more short knees to the body, and Gaziev fails on another takedown effort. Goddard asks them to work as Gaziev stalls out, and Rozenstruik tries to get away again only to be snagged by his opponent and held in the clinch until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
It is the third round, and these two heavyweights are quite fatigued to this point. They meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Rozenstruik stands firm and jabs the head and body. “Bigi Boy” lands a leg kick, and he paws out with several jabs to keep Gaziev at bay. Gaziev clubs his foe with a right hand, and he sneaks another right around the jab to get Rozenstruik’s attention. Rozenstruik throws back with a single right after multiple jabs, and Gaziev’s nose is bloodied and his mouth wide open. Gaziev charges, landing a left hand, but he gets stunned with a right hand that nearly dislodges his mouthpiece. Gaziev holds his mouthguard like it is about to fly out, as he appears to be struggling to breathe. Rozenstruik snaps out jab after jab, and blood sprays from Gaziev’s nose when he absorbs each and every blow. Rozenstruik rips a right hand to the body, and he hops away from the offense from Gaziev that is slow and labored. Gaziev continues to shuffle his mouthpiece, and Rozenstruik opens up with a fierce combination ending with a chopping low kick. Gaziev reaches out with his arms outstretched, and Rozenstruik snaps his head back with a mean jab. Gaziev sits down on a right hand counter, and Rozenstruik has to shake it out and backpedal. Rozenstruik gathers his thoughts and jabs away, and when he lands a leg kick, he gets knocked back with a right hand. The kick did enough damage to draw out a minimal limp, and both men stand in front of one another and engage in a brief, fierce exchange to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, much to the surprise of most prognosticators. Rozenstruik does not change his approach, with jabs and leg kicks completely flustering the undefeated fighter. Rozenstruik’s power jab stops Gaziev from hitting him cleanly, until Gaziev decides he is sick of getting hit and runs forward. Gaziev unleashes several big punches, knocking “Bigi Boy” against the fencing, and he shoots for a takedown to follow and try to take back some momentum. Rozenstruik staves it off and slides away to not get hit by an elbow on the break, and he returns to striking range while Gaziev is chewing on his mouthpiece. Rozenstruik jabs the face and chest, and Gaziev glares at him but does not have the energy reserves to do anything more but look angry. Gaziev tries to throw a single punch, and he does not have the gas to reach his opponent. Rozenstruik opens up with a left and a huge right, seeing that Gaziev is spent. He releases several more heavy punches, stinging the unbeaten fighter, and starts feeling himself. Rozenstruik jabs and smacks Gaziev in the face, and he lets Gaziev swing futilely back his direction. Rozenstruik lets go with additional jabs and doubles up on a leg kick as Gaziev looks down at his damaged limb but does not keep attacking. The jab dislodges Gaziev’s gumshield, and Rozenstruik walks off to celebrate the cool moment as Goddard recovers it and has Gaziev replace it. Rozenstruik surges into action as seconds are left in the round, and he shoots for his own takedown so Gaziev sells out defending it, and he bails on it to unload with a flurry of strikes to end the round. As Gaziev sits on his stool, he seems to tell his corner he cannot continue. The translation is not clear, whether he is injured or exhausted or something else. Gaziev stands up, and with his corner still in the cage, Goddard goes over to them all and calls time. Goddard demands that the corner translate what Gaziev was saying, and eventually they inform him that Gaziev says he cannot see. Goddard has the doctor check out Gaziev, but before the physician can determine any lack of vision, Gaziev shakes his head and seems to motion that he is all done tonight after getting beaten up for 20 minutes. Therefore, it is a stoppage via retirement at the end of the fourth round. It is a crucial win for the former kickboxer, as he strips the 0 from Gaziev’s record, and turns a rough patch to 2-1 in his last three. In his post-fight interview, Rozenstruik welcomes any challenge, and many minds immediately go to Derrick Lewis, as the two sluggers have never met. Next week, it is a massive night for the sport as UFC 299 goes down in Miami with a blockbuster lineup. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Shamil Gaziev R4 5:00 via TKO (Retirement)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, calling the -140 odds a gift. He notes Rozenstruik is one-dimensional and flat-footed, while Gaziev has power, wrestling, and better movement. He has a full unit bet on Gaziev and expects him to win.

Full unit bet at -140
"this is Shamil gaze all day long the minus 140 odds on him is a gift from the heavens"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Rozenstruik despite acknowledging Gaziev's power and early finishing ability. He notes that Gaziev has only been past 1.5 rounds once and has cardio concerns, while Rozenstruik has five-round experience and a fifth-round knockout. He believes if the fight extends, it heavily favors Rozenstruik. However, he admits he has no confidence in the pick and won't bet the fight except maybe a prop.

won't bet the fight except maybe a prop
"I'll take Rosen stro I'll take him to win by Seal knockout but I mean that this pick can age very badly very fast"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody sees Rozenstruik as a live underdog due to his knockout power and proven five-round cardio, noting that Gaziev has weak cardio and has never been extended beyond two rounds. He believes if Rozenstruik survives the early takedown onslaught, Gaziev will gas and Rozenstruik can finish him late. He compares it to the Overeem fight where Rozenstruik knocked him out in the fifth round.

"I feel like this is a fight that Rosen struck loses early uh if he gets finished it's over you lose if he doesn't get finished this thing drags on a little bit you're going to get a much better …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev is a strong grappler who should get the fight to the ground with relative ease. Rozenstruik struggles against grapplers, as seen in losses to Curtis Blaydes, Jailton Almeida, and Alexander Volkov. Gaziev's striking confidence has improved, and he can stay safe from Rozenstruik's power until he secures a takedown. Once on the ground, Gaziev's strength will be too much, leading to a TKO or submission finish within the first round. The host considers -145 a gift line.

Gaziev round 1 TKO or submission, fight doesn't go past 4-5 minutes
"I'm going to go godv here minus 145 in my opinion gift of a line we might not be able to get him at this line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul picks Gaziev but acknowledges it's a 60/40 fight and not one he has a big edge on. He expects Gaziev to get early takedowns but questions what happens after that, noting Gaziev's cardio concerns. He mentions the fight feels like a toss-up and he's not entirely confident.

"he's going to be my pick but yeah honestly at like minus 150 plus 130 it's like I don't know this kind of does feel like a 6040 type of fight to me like I'm not entirely sure it's not …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick but ultimately goes with Rozenstruik. He thinks Gaziev is open on the feet and has been dropped before, while Rozenstruik has power and experience in main events. He worries about Rozenstruik's takedown defense but believes he can survive and find opportunities. He predicts a KO in round one and mentions betting on Rozenstruik as an underdog.

KO win in round 1, underdog bet
"I'm going to go Jairzinho Rozenstruik... I think Rosenstrike can chew him up... getting a KO round one"
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:43 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.

Only way to bet is through parlays; safe to parlay
"jolton's gonna be the pick here and the only way you can bet on him is through parlays because the line is just too much for money line and I do think that is safe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.

first round finish (submission or KO)
"Jonathan Almeida is gonna go for a takedown within the first 10 seconds I mean I can almost guarantee it's gonna be like the first 10 to 20 seconds he's going to shoot a takedown and he's probably going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I got gelton Almeida but it's such a big favorite at this point that what can go wrong because what's been going wrong every single League pause like Murphy's Law what can go wrong has seemingly been going wrong"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.

under 4.5 rounds -1000, under 3.5 rounds -770, under 2.5 rounds -450, under 1.5 rounds -225; method likely submission or ground and pound
"I gotta go with the minus 500 favorite jealous and Almeida to get it done... jailton Almeida via something on the mat is the pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.

Considering prop bets on TKO (+300) or submission, or under 1.5 rounds; will decide based on lines.
"I'm predicting jar to now made it to go in there get a takedown just like Curtis blades did... I think John's going to get a first round finish here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds
"give me Jay Isleton Almeida to pick up the biggest win of his UFC career to date and do it emphatically in the first round under one and a half not too shabby either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I think Jason gets the takedown I think he gets it early I think he uh beats the you know what out of Rosen strike when he gets this fight to the mat but at minus 500 they have taken …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.

first round TKO or submission
"I'm going with jail to now made a jazzinio rosenstroik looked somewhat lost on the ground against Overeem... I think he's going to beat rosenstroik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
WIN vs Chris Daukaus
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Daukaus despite Rozenstruik being a 2-1 favorite, because he believes Daukaus is the better striker with better footwork, speed, and volume. He notes both have power and suspect chins, making it essentially a 50-50 fight. He advises not to bet on this fight due to the volatility, but suggests using both in knockout Kings entries.

Do not bet on this fight; use both in knockout Kings entries.
"I want to pick dacas here I think he's the better Striker and that sounds stupid because technically speaking I think rosenstruck is but I think Chris has the better footwork he's active he's faster he's busier"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, emphasizing his superior power and questioning Daukaus's chin after being knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He notes Rozenstruik has been more active and hits harder, and expects a first-round knockout. He criticizes the UFC for feeding Daukaus to a heavy hitter.

Rozenstruik wins by first round knockout
"I'm gonna go rosenstruck to win by first round knockout but I think somebody's getting knocked out here and in probably in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody picks Rozenstruik, citing his power and kickboxing background. He notes Daukaus has durability issues, having been knocked out by Lewis and Blaydes. He thinks Rozenstruik will land a counter right hand and knock him out. He suggests Rozenstruik by knockout or under 1.5 rounds.

Rozenstruik by knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to lean towards Die Trying gets in the face lands a couple shots gets his confidence going and then just walks into a counter right hand from rosen's truck the flat lines them so give me a rose …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Lock picks Rozenstruik to win, likely by knockout, but he is not comfortable paying the chalk price. He notes that Rozenstruik doesn't always maximize his knockout opportunities, making him hesitant even on the KO line at -125. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he suggests a pump and dump: buy Rozenstruik this weekend, sell after the win, because Rozenstruik has a ceiling and won't crack the top five again. He also mentions Daukaus might be cut after a third straight loss.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"I'll go with Rosen strike I'll just say pump and dump buy him this weekend knocks out Chris Chris talk to someone say Curtis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Paul picks Rozenstruik, noting his power and that Daukaus has been knocked out by heavy hitters. He is more interested in the under 1.5 rounds prop, as he expects a finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout loss but thinks Daukaus' durability is a bigger issue.

Under 1.5 rounds (-155)
"I'm gonna pick Rosen strike for the purposes of this show but I'm more interested in the under one and a half rounds like daucus doesn't yeah I mean you you summed it up very very nicely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus by first-round KO. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and believes he was exposed in his fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, where he got hit a lot. Rozenstruik has a reach advantage and power, and Daukaus is coming off a loss by his brother. He predicts Rozenstruik will put him down early.

"I think Rosen strike's gonna put him in a spliff so I think Rosen strike owes him in the first round puts him down"
TKO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)

Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.

"i'm gonna side with volkov here i trust his fight iq i trust his move around long striking style to keep him out of danger"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.

Rozenstruik by KO +200 (mentioned as alternative)
"volkov volkov for the win volkov by decision for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.

Volkov by decision, over 3.5 rounds
"i got volkov i got vocal by decision i got the over three and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.

Rozenstruik by knockout +210; one-unit bet
"i'm going with the underdog here i'm not sitting here saying it's max best season i'm not sitting here saying to make a big bet but you know plus 140 plus 145 odds i might take a one unit shot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.

Volkov by decision (if available, likely around -200)
"i really struggle to see how jairzinio wins a a decision against alexander volkov so yeah volkov for me minus 150."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.

"i think he's going to keep rose and strike at range rose and strikes gonna hesitate against a massive opponent"
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 32 of 96 33% 113 of 190 3 of 6 50% 0 0 6:19
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 68 26% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 19 of 42 45% 27 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 28 21% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 8 of 37 21% 43 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:20
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 10 of 31 32% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 5 of 17 29% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:05
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 2 of 9 22% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 32 of 96 33% 18 of 76 6 of 8 8 of 12 24 of 86 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 68 26% 17 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 1 16 of 65 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 19 of 42 45% 10 of 30 5 of 7 4 of 5 11 of 32 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 28 21% 5 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 1 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 8 of 37 21% 5 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 4 8 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Curtis Blaydes 5 of 17 29% 3 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.

Angelo suggests looking at inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik. He says he won't bet the moneyline at -330.
"Curtis blades is my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say curtis blaze does win by knockout tko in that first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.

Blaydes by decision (+200), Rozenstruik by KO (+400)
"i think he gets the victory and i think if i'm trying to sweeten up a straight up curtis blaze play i think you go with him by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.

"i'll lean with blades here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.

Jacob discusses the strike line, leaning more for Blaydes and less for Rozenstruik. He also mentions inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik.
"blades wins this fight it's going to be copy and paste"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Curtis Blaydes

The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.

Blaydes inside the distance at +120; Blaydes by submission at +1000
"i'm going blade second round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.

Blaydes by decision (+200)
"i'll be picking curtis blades here if i had to bet uh this fight and i'm kind of nervous about it for blades in general"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing Blaydes' wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Rozenstruik is not in great shape and has poor takedown defense. He expects Blaydes to mix in takedowns with striking, take Rozenstruik down, and pound him out for a second-round TKO. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes wins nine times out of ten.

second round tko, prop bet on Rozenstruik first round under a minute
"i'll say second round tko for curtis blades"
WIN vs Augusto Sakai
TKO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.

"i'm gonna go with sakai i think sakai does get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.

over 1.5 rounds, fight starts round three -140
"i'm hoping sakai could potentially build on that i just i can't get behind rosenstruck not with my dollar"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.

"i gotta favor sakai here despite him being the underdog it's just really about don't get clipped with one big shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.

Sakai by decision +380, over 3.5 rounds +140
"I got sakai via decision plus 390"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.

fight starts round three -140, over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"gun to my head would be sakai dogger pass dogger pass close fight 50 50. i'm getting slight dog money on sakai"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i've got augusto sakai getting it done not to mention he's got pretty good striking defense on the feet as well"
Andrei Arlovski - Fight History
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 74 of 119 62% 98 of 147 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:58
Andrei Arlovski 0 54 of 84 64% 165 of 199 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 14 of 25 56% 16 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Andrei Arlovski 0 8 of 21 38% 55 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
2 Martin Buday 0 27 of 46 58% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Andrei Arlovski 0 22 of 32 68% 45 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Martin Buday 0 33 of 48 68% 50 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Andrei Arlovski 0 24 of 31 77% 65 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 74 of 119 62% 34 of 69 26 of 33 14 of 17 54 of 97 20 of 22 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 54 of 84 64% 24 of 51 25 of 27 5 of 6 23 of 48 31 of 36 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 14 of 25 56% 8 of 17 4 of 5 2 of 3 12 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 8 of 21 38% 5 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 27 of 46 58% 14 of 29 8 of 12 5 of 5 19 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 22 of 32 68% 8 of 16 11 of 12 3 of 4 8 of 14 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 33 of 48 68% 12 of 23 14 of 16 7 of 9 23 of 38 10 of 10 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 24 of 31 77% 11 of 18 13 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 18 13 of 13 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski, citing his experience and tendency to win close decisions. He notes that Buday has low output and poor wrestling, and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who often gets the nod in close fights. Cody believes Arlovski can outpoint Buday in a low-volume affair, but admits it's a risky pick.

"Arlovski for me in like a real greasy split decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel thinks Buday will win the fight by pinning Arlovski against the fence and wearing him down with dirty boxing. However, he is hesitant to lay the price because similar prospects like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins failed to finish Arlovski. He notes that Aspen Ladd did his job at a similar price, so he expects Buday to win but is not interested in the bet.

"I think Buday is going to win the fight I'm just not interested in this price."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Buday, expecting him to be pissed off after his last loss and to pressure Arlovski. He thinks Buday's clinch work and forward pressure will wear on Arlovski, and hopes Buday goes for takedowns to finish easily. He recommends Buday inside the distance at +150.

Buday inside the distance at +150
"I'm going to go budai and budai inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul leans toward Arlovski, noting that Buday has been out struck in recent fights and that Arlovski has a history of winning split decisions. He believes Arlovski's durability and experience will be key, and that Buday lacks the power to finish him. Paul expects a boring decision win for Arlovski.

"I'm seeing all the same stuff you're seeing and I agree largely with a lot of the points."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The Guru picks Martin Buday over Andrei Arlovski. He notes Arlovski's age and recent KO losses. He likes Buday's pressure game plan and training with Tom Aspinall. He believes Buday will lean on Arlovski in the clinch and break him down with body shots.

"I'm going to go with Martin B... I think he'll Force the fight and that'll Break alovi"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 58 of 127 45% 58 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 49 of 136 36% 50 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 15 of 48 31% 15 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 14 of 44 31% 14 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 23 of 46 50% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 20 of 44 45% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 58 of 127 45% 13 of 63 22 of 40 23 of 24 58 of 127 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 49 of 136 36% 24 of 97 11 of 19 14 of 20 46 of 131 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 40 37% 4 of 21 5 of 12 6 of 7 15 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 15 of 48 31% 8 of 36 4 of 7 3 of 5 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 20 of 41 48% 4 of 20 8 of 13 8 of 8 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 14 of 44 31% 6 of 29 2 of 6 6 of 9 14 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 23 of 46 50% 5 of 22 9 of 15 9 of 9 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 20 of 44 45% 10 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 6 17 of 39 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-600), Arlovski (+440)

Round 1
It’s a titanic tussle to start off the main card, as heavyweights collide with 50% knockout rates between them. Former champ Arlovski (34-22, 2 NC; 23-16, 1 NC UFC) is looking to end his losing streak before he turns 45, while the relative youngster Cortes-Acosta (10-1, 3-1 UFC), almost 13 years his junior, is seeking to be a contender. Fists are soon to fly, but referee Marc Goddard is there to keep things on the up-and-up just in case. There is no glove touch to begin, as Cortes-Acosta instead wants to reach his target with an introductory kick to the ribs. Arlovski kicks high, gets blocked, and keeps his guard up to defend against a kick to his dome. Arlovski lands two kicks to the lead leg, and he makes Cortes-Acosta pull back from a kick and land his own to the side. Cortes-Acosta swings and misses with a wide overhand right, and Arlovski reaches him at the end of a head kick. Arlovski scores with a left hand, and his hands open as a finger grazes the eye. Cortes-Acosta is alright and waves off a pause, and they trade hands for a moment. Arlovski whiffs on a haymaker of his own, and Cortes-Acosta rifles off a right hand to the midsection. Cortes-Acosta jumps forward with a switch kick that pushes off the body, and Arlovski responds with two jabs and a missed spinning back fist. Arlovski does land with a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta shrugs at him and leaps forward with two massive hooks that cannot find their mark. Arlovski tries and fails to get him back with a big hook, and Cortes-Acosta plods forward and swings a back fist at him. Arlovski pokes out a jab, and Cortes-Acosta reaches him with a right hand and goes high with a kick. The two big men go tit-for-tat with single strikes, and Arlovski lands a glancing blow and leans back to dodge a monstrous uppercut. Arlovski bounces off the fence when evading a kick aimed at his torso, and Cortes-Acosta dips down and rings Arlovski’s bell with a left hand on the temple. Arlovski blinks it off and starts peppering jabs, and a low kick follows with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta comes out swinging, pouring it on with huge punches, and Arlovski sways and dodges to defend against every single one. The round ends as an Arlovski right hand bounces off his foe’s shoulder.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The second round opens with Cortes-Acosta throwing heavy strikes, and Arlovski is ready to parry and avoid them. Arlovski doubles up on a jab, and he kicks the inner thigh. Cortes-Acosta lands two kicks and starts salsa dancing, and Arlovski does not bite and engage. Cortes-Acosta dips straight into a left hook, and he reaches his foe with his own left hand. Cortes-Acosta starts shaking his hips and trying to draw Arlovski in, and he slaps the veteran in the face with an open-handed slap. Arlovski protests, but it is a legal strike. Cortes-Acosta measures out a few jabs, and the volume diminishes for both fighters as they likely have low accuracy rates as well. Cortes-Acosta comes up short with a spinning back fist, and he gets Arlovski’s attention with a single left hook in the midst of a blitz. Cortes-Acosta dances when Arlovski lands on him, and he is showboating even though he lands very little on his own side. A jab from Arlovski dislodges the mouthpiece of his opponent, and Arlovski looks frustrated at the pause of the action or lack thereof. Cortes-Acosta blocks the oncoming strikes for the most part, and he parries an Arlovski blitz. Arlovski lands to the body, and Cortes-Acosta surges into action with several flailing punches. A few land, including an uppercut, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The final round opens up, and the first strike lands courtesy of Cortes-Acosta in the form of a light leg kick. Arlovski kicks him back harder, and the stalemate of awkward strikes resumes. Cortes-Acosta crowds him and throws big strikes, and a big right hand from “Salsa Boy” appears to straighten Arlovski’s crooked nose. Arlovski targets the body and kicks high, and Cortes-Acosta shrugs at him. Arlovski again strikes the body and rolls with the winging punches aimed at him, and Cortes-Acosta again shrugs at him and takes three punches. Arlovski gets off a leg kick, and Cortes-Acosta splits the guard with a power right hand that shakes the former champion up. Arlovski recovers, and he lands a light leg kick that makes Cortes-Acosta mockingly grunt loudly at him. Cortes-Acosta sells out with two looping hooks that miss the mark, and Arlovski spins with a back fist in response. Arlovski has a high kick bounce off the guard, and he jabs his way forward. Cortes-Acosta lines up a huge right hand and appears to hurt Arlovski, but Arlovski leans down and connects with an overhand right before signaling he suffered an eye poke. Time is not called, and they trade body kicks as Cortes-Acosta is in full showboating mode. Matt Hughes would not be impressed by his performance. Cortes-Acosta pushes out a front kick and tries to tie Arlovski up, but is pushed back thanks in part to a front kick from the Belarusian. Arlovski gets off a high kick, and Cortes-Acosta starts talking to him. Arlovski spins with a kick to the ribs, and Cortes-Acosta slaps for him. Arlovski blitzes forward, lands a few heavy punches, and Cortes-Acosta takes them flush and asks for more. The fight ends with Arlovski launching a flurry of strikes, and he is not a happy camper as he stares at the younger fighter. Due to the low volume and oddly connecting strikes, scorecards could be diverse here. It was not a good fight, and no one came out ahead, winner or loser.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arlovski (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arlovski (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arlovski (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Andrei Arlovski via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, stating that while Andrei Arlovski is the better fighter historically, his age (44) and compromised chin make him unlikely to win. He notes Waldo's athleticism, power, and toughness. He suggests Waldo inside the distance as a likely prop bet.

Waldo inside the distance suggested as a safe bet
"Waldo Cortez acostas the absolute pick here the odds indicate that as well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady is very confident, calling the fight a mismatch. He notes Arlovski is 44, has been knocked out 12 times, and was recently knocked out by Dantel Maye. He believes Cortes Acosta is younger, hits hard, and will finish Arlovski early. He expresses concern for Arlovski's safety.

first round knockout
"give me Walo cortis a Costa winning by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Waldo, citing his youth, boxing background, volume, and the fact that Arlovski is old and on a decline. He notes that Arlovski has no takedown threat, so Waldo can box freely. He expects Waldo to land bigger shots and possibly get a finish, but acknowledges that if Waldo doesn't put him away, it could be a close decision.

"I do got to go with Costa"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win, noting his athleticism and youth should be the difference. He mentions Cortes-Acosta's baseball background and punching power. Vreeland has been picking against Arlovski for years and sees no reason to change now, though he's not crazy about the minus-600 line.

"I'm gonna pick him to win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta is a volume striker who works behind his jab and maintains a high output. He has good footwork and can outpoint opponents over three rounds. Andrei Arlovski is a veteran who fades in fights and has been finished in his last two losses. This should be a striking battle, and Cortes Acosta's consistent output should earn him a decision. I'm not touching the moneyline at -600, but the over 1.5 rounds is a good play, and Cortes Acosta by decision is worth a sprinkle if the odds are right.

Over 1.5 rounds, Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez a Costa by decision but uh I'm going to stay away from that money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He says he thinks Waldo will win but won't bet him at -650. He considers waiting for the line to move to +500 on Arlovski but doesn't commit. He mentions the possibility of Waldo freezing up against a legend.

"I'm not going to be touching Waldo at minus 650"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing Andrei Arlovski's declining chin and recent losses. He notes Arlovski got KO'd by Don'Tale Mayes and struggled with Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa. He believes Cortes Acosta's boxing and power will lead to a first-round KO, and suggests the UFC wants Arlovski to lose due to his high salary.

first round KO
"I'm going to go wildo Cortez a Costa first round KO with the Box in and uh get rid of olowski sadly"
LOSS vs Don'Tale Mayes
TKO (punches) R2 3:17 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 0 24 of 56 42% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 25 of 87 28% 28 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 0 14 of 25 56% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 8 of 47 17% 11 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 24 of 56 42% 10 of 36 9 of 10 5 of 10 24 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 25 of 87 28% 14 of 58 4 of 14 7 of 15 22 of 82 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 14 of 25 56% 5 of 12 5 of 6 4 of 7 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 8 of 47 17% 5 of 33 1 of 7 2 of 7 7 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Don'Tale Mayes 10 of 31 32% 5 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 3 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 17 of 40 42% 9 of 25 3 of 7 5 of 8 15 of 37 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, believing he is the better fighter in every category except age and chin. He thinks Arlovski's technical striking and experience will overcome Mayes' power. He is concerned about Arlovski's chin after the last fight but still expects him to win. He would bet Arlovski if the line keeps moving.

"in every single category other than Andre's old Andre lofsky's the better fighter every single category"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski, agreeing with Paul. He notes that middling heavyweights often go to decision and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who gets close decisions. Cody points out that Mayes doesn't use his physical advantages and that Arlovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also mentions that Mayes has been knocked out by lesser fighters and that Arlovski is the safer pick.

"I'm gonna take the pit bull to get one over"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Andrei Arlovski

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Mayes is a 'giant ball of wasted potential' who has never realized his athletic gifts. He points out that Arlovski has consistently beaten lower-tier heavyweights who lack a real striking game or finishing ability. Mayes' tendency to throw single strikes and his poor grappling will be exploited by Arlovski's steady pressure and clinch work.

"I mean he almost accidentally won that fight with hamdi up del wahab"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel picks Arlovski, though he admits he hasn't taped the fight deeply. He thinks Mayes has mental fragility and Arlovski's veteran savvy could eke out a decision. He notes that Arlovski has been quitting in fights but Mayes may not bring that out of him. He considers a sprinkle on Arlovski by decision.

"I'll ask you ... Arlovski as well"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Jacob picks Mayes, citing his speed and athleticism advantage over the 44-year-old Arlovski. He thinks Mayes should use range and volume to break down Arlovski's chin. He notes Arlovski looked old and uninterested in his last fight. Jacob is betting $100 on Mayes at +120.

Bet $100 on Mayes moneyline at +120.
"my pick I gotta stick with my duel man Indiana Zone Downtown maze baby nap time 100 317"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Mayes is a hybrid heavyweight who mixes takedowns behind punches and works well in the clinch. Arlovski is reliant on striking and tends to quit when grappling gets tough. Mayes will tie him up, land takedowns, and control the fight to win a decision. The over 2.5 is the preferred bet.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with King Kong Dantel maze in this fight I think you'll be able to mix it up a lot better than Andre olowski"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul picks Arlovski at plus money. He notes Mayes has low output and doesn't use his reach or speed advantage. Paul mentions Arlovski's recent wins over low-output fighters and that the UFC seems to give him favorable matchups. He thinks Mayes is overrated as a favorite and that Arlovski can squeak out a decision. Paul also recalls losing money on Mayes in the past, making him hesitant to trust him.

"it's our lovsky for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski, believing this is one of the heavyweight fights Arlovski wins. He criticizes Don'Tale Mayes for being hesitant on the feet and getting blanketed by Augusto Sakai. He expects Arlovski to frustrate Mayes at range with leg kicks and small shots, while Mayes will be gun-shy and not throw enough. He acknowledges an upset is possible but thinks Arlovski's skill at this level of heavyweight will take over.

"I think arlovsky just sort of frustrating him at range I can see him picking at him tapping at his legs"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Andrei Arlovski

Zane picks Arlovski based on his consistent ability to outwork opponents who lack a high-output striking game. He notes that Mayes is a talented but dysfunctional fighter with poor wrestling and no coherent game plan. Arlovski's jab, clinch work, and steady pace have proven too much for similar fighters like Felipe Lins and Tanner Boser. Zane believes Mayes' athleticism won't compensate for his lack of structure.

"I'm gonna take old man our law of ski once again"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 6 of 11 54% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 6 of 11 54% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out by power punchers and that de Lima has heavy hands, as seen in his knockout of Ben Rothwell. He mentions that Arlovski's recent wins have come against non-power punchers, and that de Lima's power and early finishing ability will be too much for the 43-year-old Arlovski.

de Lima wins by first-round knockout
"give me uh delima first round KO here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Andrei Arlovski as a dog, citing his four-fight winning streak and ability to win close decisions. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out only by elite power punchers and that Marcos Rogério de Lima is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Cody expects Arlovski to survive the first round and take over in rounds two and three, winning a decision. He is betting Arlovski.

"I'm gonna be betting on Andre arlovsky this week Cody"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Connor agrees with Zane, picking de Lima based on his speed and power advantage. He notes that Arlovski has been beating low-technique, slow heavyweights, but de Lima is a significant step up in athleticism. Connor also points out that de Lima can wrestle if needed, and Arlovski's lack of finishing ability means he likely can't come back if he loses the first round.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm kind of with you. Yeah."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Daniel Levi picks de Lima, citing youth, power, and grappling advantage. He admits his poor track record picking Arlovski fights. He notes Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks de Lima's power and youth will be too much. He has no interest in laying -225.

"I'm gonna go with de Lima but you know minus 225 on a guy I can't trust I just don't really have much conviction or interest in laying that price."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Jacob picks de Lima but warns against betting heavyweight fights due to inconsistency. He notes Arlovski's recent win streak but says he was getting hit by Jake Collier, and de Lima has more power. He advises not to put money on either side.

do not bet this fight
"my official pick if I have to pick is delima"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Arlovski is on a 6-1 run over his last seven fights and has shown durability and veteran savvy. De Lima is first-round-or-bust and tends to fade in later rounds. Arlovski should survive the initial onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a decision. The plus 200 price is a no-brainer for an underdog bet.

Arlovski by decision +275
"plus 200 onlovsky is a completely no-brainer uh bet you know he likely he should be able to get uh off on better shots in the second and third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul also picks Arlovski, calling him dog number two on the card. He highlights Arlovski's six wins in his last seven fights and his ability to grind out decisions. Paul criticizes de Lima's poor cardio, submission losses, and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Arlovski's stick-and-move style will tire de Lima and lead to a decision win.

"I will as well I feel like I'm forcing an underdog play but again this is dog number two on the card that I'm zoning in on Andre Lassie these are the types of spots that he absolutely thrives in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

The MMA Guru picks Marcos Rogério de Lima over Andrei Arlovski, noting that Arlovski's recent fights have been close and he still gets caught on the chin. He highlights de Lima's hands, reach, and grappling threat, which Arlovski hasn't faced recently. He predicts de Lima will mix in takedowns, push Arlovski against the cage, and eventually clip him for a KO win.

"I'm going against the old man himself Andre arlovsky... I feel as though Marcos rodrio de Lima mixing a takedown early... get clipped by Marcos Rodrigo De Lima"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Zane picks de Lima confidently, citing his significant speed and power advantage over Arlovski's recent opponents. He notes that de Lima is a fast, powerful striker who can put Arlovski away early, similar to how Ben Rothwell or Tom Aspinall did. Zane also mentions de Lima's improved conditioning and potential wrestling as an out if needed, while Arlovski is slow and not a finisher anymore.

Surprised odds are getting that wide; de Lima opened -131 now -237, Arlovski +111 to +191. Zane says 'I don't hate it' and thinks the matchup works well for de Lima.
"I'm going to pick Dilema here. I think that the speed and the power is enough that he can just kind of... go out and Ben Rothwell Arlofsky."
WIN vs Jake Collier
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 91 of 164 55% 105 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jake Collier 0 93 of 188 49% 132 of 231 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 20 of 40 50% 31 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jake Collier 0 25 of 46 54% 50 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:54
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 39 of 66 59% 40 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Collier 0 36 of 65 55% 47 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 32 of 58 55% 34 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Collier 0 32 of 77 41% 35 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 91 of 164 55% 66 of 137 15 of 17 10 of 10 82 of 152 8 of 11 1 of 1
Jake Collier 93 of 188 49% 77 of 168 7 of 10 9 of 10 81 of 171 12 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 20 of 40 50% 13 of 33 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 34 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jake Collier 25 of 46 54% 18 of 38 4 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 37 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 39 of 66 59% 33 of 59 5 of 6 1 of 1 37 of 64 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jake Collier 36 of 65 55% 30 of 58 3 of 3 3 of 4 35 of 62 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 32 of 58 55% 20 of 45 6 of 7 6 of 6 28 of 54 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jake Collier 32 of 77 41% 29 of 72 0 of 2 3 of 3 28 of 72 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting another decision win. He highlights Arlovski's superior technique, conditioning, and 78% takedown defense over 43 UFC fights. He notes Collier lacks one-punch KO power and is undersized at heavyweight. He sees this as a kickboxing match where Arlovski cruises to a decision.

"i like andre olofsky to get his fourth decision win in a row with just superior technique and conditioning"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Big Brady picks Jake Collier but is very hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier's volume advantage and youth, but worries about his poor cardio and tendency to gas. He expects a split decision that could go either way, and advises against betting.

split decision, no bet recommended
"give me jay caller to win i think he will win the fight but you know who knows what the judges are going to think"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Cody also picks Jake Collier, calling it a 'dogger pass' situation. He believes Collier's volume and better defense will edge out Arlovski in a close fight. Cody notes Arlovski tends to get the benefit of the doubt in close decisions but thinks Collier is better than Jared Vanderaa, who gave Arlovski trouble. He mentions Collier's cardio faded in the third against Felipe but expects a high pace from Collier.

"i'm gonna go with jake collier as well and that's underdog number two"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi leans toward Andrei Arlovski but is hesitant to lay the -145 price. He notes Arlovski's recent winning streak and speed advantage, but acknowledges Collier's power and potential for a finish. Levi expects a close split decision and suggests the Arlovski by decision prop, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

Arlovski by decision prop mentioned
"i do kind of lean our lasky to get it done it's just like am i trying to lay slight chalk on him no"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The host picks Arlovski, highlighting his experience and decision-friendly style. He notes Arlovski's takedown defense and ability to outpoint opponents, even when outstruck in volume. He believes Collier's body language and cardio issues will be a factor, and that Arlovski will land the more significant strikes to sway judges. He expects a decision win.

Arlovski by decision +125, fight goes to decision -190
"arlovski by decision plus 125 sign me up fight goes to the decision minus 190 sign me up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul picks Jake Collier as an underdog, expecting him to win by decision through volume striking. He notes Collier's high output (e.g., 130 significant strikes against Carlos Felipe) and doubts the modern Arlovski can keep pace. Paul acknowledges Arlovski's ability to slow fights down but believes Collier's volume will be decisive. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds line has moved from -155 to -210, making overs risky.

Over 2.5 rounds mentioned as risky
"i think jay collier wins i think jay collier wins by decision just in volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The Guru picks Arlovski to win by decision, noting his consistency and activity. He acknowledges Collier looked good against Chase Sherman but believes Arlovski is a better fighter overall. The Guru points out that Arlovski has been active and patient recently, with wins over Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe. He thinks Collier may have early moments but Arlovski will steer it back in the later rounds for a 29-28 unanimous decision.

Arlovski by decision 29-28
"i'm going to pick arlovsky to win this one... i think karlovsky's going to steer it back his way in the later two rounds and get a 29-28 unanimous decision"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 64 of 133 48% 71 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 70 of 156 44% 102 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 30 of 55 54% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 23 of 58 39% 30 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 20 of 44 45% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 19 of 42 45% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 14 of 34 41% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 28 of 56 50% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 64 of 133 48% 40 of 100 19 of 26 5 of 7 60 of 128 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 70 of 156 44% 30 of 110 24 of 29 16 of 17 55 of 134 15 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 30 of 55 54% 18 of 42 8 of 9 4 of 4 29 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 23 of 58 39% 13 of 46 6 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 20 of 44 45% 15 of 33 5 of 10 0 of 1 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 19 of 42 45% 6 of 27 11 of 13 2 of 2 15 of 35 4 of 7 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 14 of 34 41% 7 of 25 6 of 7 1 of 2 13 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 28 of 56 50% 11 of 37 7 of 8 10 of 11 21 of 46 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting a three-round kickboxing match where Arlovski's footwork and speed allow him to outpoint Vanderaa. He compares it to Arlovski's fight against Carlos Felipe and thinks Arlovski will jab his way to a decision win. He warns not to sleep on Vanderaa, who is better than his matchups suggest.

"i think andre olofsky out points jared van dara i think he just jab jab jabs his way to a three-round decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady believes Arlovski is the more skilled fighter despite being 42. He notes Arlovski has improved his striking defense and changed his style to be more conservative. He criticizes Vanderaa's 20% takedown defense and 39% striking defense, calling him a walking punching bag. Brady thinks Arlovski will win a decision, as he hasn't had a finish since 2015. He sees no clear path to victory for Vanderaa.

Arlovski by decision
"give me andre alaska to win and give me arlofsky to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa as an underdog, citing Arlovski's age (43) and low output. He notes Vanderaa has a good chin and has shown volume in fights. He thinks Vanderaa can outwork Arlovski over three rounds, especially if he pressures.

"i'll go vandara and i know it's not it's definitely not a sexy pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi picks Andrei Arlovski, stating he is much faster and can fight for three rounds. He notes that Jared Vanderaa is slow and plodding, and that Arlovski's volume and boxing will win him the fight. Levi expects Arlovski to win a decision, as Vanderaa is durable but not a takedown threat.

"i'm gonna go with arlovsky though man i think he's way faster"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Vanderaa is a solid striker with good combinations and forward pressure. Arlovski is an aging point-fighter who has faced low-output opponents recently. Vanderaa should win exchanges and has the power to hurt Arlovski. Arlovski's durability hasn't been tested by someone with Vanderaa's combination punching. Vanderaa is the dog of the night.

Vanderaa by KO in round 2; moneyline is the main play
"he's easily my dog of the night for this card i got two units on him at plus 140 already i think he's a great spot and i think he's going to pull off the upside here against the aging …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul thinks Arlovski is the more technical fighter and that Vanderaa doesn't have fight-ending power. He notes Arlovski has been winning decisions lately and expects a similar low-volume affair. He acknowledges Arlovski's age but believes he can edge out another win.

"i think andre is the more technical fighter all the way around"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, citing his veteran striking and experience. He views Vanderaa as a bottom-feeder who takes too much damage and expects Arlovski to pick him apart.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna go valofsky here again"
WIN vs Carlos Felipe
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 83 of 172 48% 84 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 73 of 172 42% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 28 of 67 41% 28 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 30 of 74 40% 30 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 29 of 54 53% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 31 of 65 47% 31 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 83 of 172 48% 49 of 133 11 of 15 23 of 24 81 of 170 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 73 of 172 42% 53 of 145 15 of 21 5 of 6 54 of 148 12 of 14 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 26 of 51 50% 9 of 32 7 of 9 10 of 10 26 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 12 of 33 36% 3 of 22 6 of 8 3 of 3 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 28 of 67 41% 17 of 54 3 of 4 8 of 9 27 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 30 of 74 40% 25 of 67 4 of 5 1 of 2 27 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 29 of 54 53% 23 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 28 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 31 of 65 47% 25 of 56 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 44 9 of 11 7 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski reluctantly due to his age (42) but believes his new bouncing style, footwork, and jab will allow him to outpoint Felipe. Felipe is a young boxer with good volume and cardio but lacks power. Arlovski can also initiate grappling if needed. Angelo is concerned about Arlovski's chin but thinks he can avoid danger. He likes Arlovski at 8200 in DraftKings and the more more on monkey knife fight.

more more on monkey knife fight
"Andre lowsky's the pick i'm doing it reluctantly because he is 42 at some point he's gonna look 42"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady leans toward Carlos Felipe by decision, citing Felipe's youth, durability, and volume. He notes Arlovski is 42 and inconsistent, sometimes low-volume. However, he dislikes Felipe's close split decisions and showboating. He has no interest in betting this fight.

by decision
"i'm actually going to lean with the younger guy and carlos felipe i don't like it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski as a slight lean, arguing that Arlovski has become the ultimate gatekeeper who beats young up-and-comers who aren't the real deal. He points out that Felipe's wins have been close split decisions against low-level competition, and that Arlovski's smart game plan of smothering Felipe against the cage and outpointing him at distance should work. He expects the fight to go to decision.

over 2.5 rounds (juiced to -210), fight goes to decision
"as of the gun to my head pick i'm gonna take on geraldowski for now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Daniel picks Carlos Felipe, noting the odds are close and everyone is on Arlovski. He sees Felipe as a young, improving fighter who likes to bang, and he dismisses the controversial Jake Collier fight as a win for Felipe. He acknowledges Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks Felipe can win a close, possibly controversial split decision.

Split decision
"give me the other side let me go with carlos felipe be a close maybe even controversial split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Arlovski will use his outside striking, jabs, and leg kicks to outpoint Felipe, who lacks finishing ability in the UFC. Felipe's success comes in the pocket, but Arlovski will avoid brawling. The fight is likely to go the distance, with Arlovski winning a decision.

Over 2.5 rounds -200, Arlovski by decision +160, fight starts round 3 -225
"i like uh arlowski arlovsky by decision uh over two and a half is the prop that i like the most"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Felipe

Paul leans toward Felipe edging out a decision based on volume and forward pressure, but admits he's not confident. He notes that Arlovski is the more technical striker but Felipe throws more volume and is durable. He says he's not willing to step in front of it with his money.

"i'm going to lean towards felipe edging out a decision just based on volume and staying and moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, noting the even odds and Felipe's lack of KO power. He argues that only fighters who obliterate competition beat Arlovski, and Felipe's close fights with Jake Collier and Justin Tafa are red flags. He expects Arlovski's footwork and jab to neutralize Felipe's body shots, leading to a 30-27 decision.

decision win 30-27
"gotta go with andre alofsky here moves his feet very light very bouncy"
WIN vs Chase Sherman
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 105 of 222 47% 109 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 88 of 192 45% 99 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 32 of 69 46% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 21 of 58 36% 32 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 46 of 88 52% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 34 of 65 52% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 105 of 222 47% 54 of 154 26 of 39 25 of 29 103 of 217 2 of 5 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 88 of 192 45% 55 of 154 16 of 20 17 of 18 84 of 187 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 27 of 65 41% 15 of 51 4 of 6 8 of 8 25 of 61 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 33 of 69 47% 22 of 55 6 of 8 5 of 6 31 of 66 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 47 10 of 12 6 of 10 32 of 68 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 21 of 58 36% 12 of 49 4 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 46 of 88 52% 23 of 56 12 of 21 11 of 11 46 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 34 of 65 52% 21 of 50 6 of 8 7 of 7 33 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.

"i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.

"chase german is a plus 105 underdog and to be quite honest i'm kind of feeling the same thing it's a dodger path type fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.

"i'm going to lean arlowski i think he's the better fighter here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chase Sherman

Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.

Sherman by KO +255; under 2.5 rounds +135
"i think chase sherman could go out there and beat up that front leg of uh andre arlovski and really start to go to work with his hands"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.

"friends don't let friends bet on chase sherman cody all right let's move on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to go with olofsky here against chase sherman"