UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Age 34
Height 5' 8"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Hakeem Dawodu
5.45 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.37 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Julio Arce
4.36 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
68.0% Str. Def.
0.46 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
96.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Hakeem Dawodu - Fight History
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 0 77 of 156 49% 107 of 195 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Hakeem Dawodu 0 95 of 176 53% 129 of 224 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 56 51% 29 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cub Swanson 0 28 of 51 54% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 55 52% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Cub Swanson 0 26 of 63 41% 32 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Hakeem Dawodu 0 37 of 65 56% 52 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 77 of 156 49% 41 of 112 27 of 31 9 of 13 59 of 135 18 of 21 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 95 of 176 53% 41 of 104 29 of 37 25 of 35 79 of 158 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 23 of 42 54% 11 of 25 8 of 10 4 of 7 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 56 51% 9 of 28 8 of 9 12 of 19 29 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 28 of 51 54% 19 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 39 10 of 12 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 55 52% 13 of 33 10 of 13 6 of 9 20 of 44 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 26 of 63 41% 11 of 45 11 of 13 4 of 5 18 of 54 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 37 of 65 56% 19 of 43 11 of 15 7 of 7 30 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Dawodu based on age and speed, noting Swanson looked old in his last fight. He acknowledges Swanson could win via takedowns and decision, but leans Dawodu.

"dawood is going to be the pick here but that is based purely on age and speed"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to knock out Cub Swanson in the second round. He notes Swanson's age (39) and recent durability issues, especially in the Jonathan Martinez fight where he was hurt to the head, body, and legs. He believes Dawodu's mixing of strikes will wear down Swanson and lead to a finish. He expects this to be Swanson's retirement fight.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Akeem to knock out Swanson here um probably second round I think it's going to be attritional"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody is torn on this fight. He notes Cub Swanson is nearing 40 and coming off a brutal loss to Jonathan Martinez, but also has a history of pulling off upsets. He criticizes Hakeem Dawodu's low output and lack of finishing ability, but acknowledges Cub's age and damage. He ultimately decides to pass on betting, saying he has other underdogs he prefers.

"I don't know if I'm gonna get there I'm taking some other underdogs on the car I'm not supposed to send it here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

James picks Dawodu, believing Swanson is past his prime. He thinks Dawodu is the better striker now with better durability, though he notes Dawodu's chin is questionable. James sees little path for Swanson to win, as he doesn't think Swanson can grapple or out-strike Dawodu. He mentions Swanson could land a knockout due to his unorthodox style, but overall favors Dawodu clearly.

"I think Swanson's past it... I think Dawodu is the clear side in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Dawodu is a technical striker who uses combination striking and kicks. Swanson is 40 and on a 3-6 run over his last nine, with wins over sketchy competition. Dawodu should land the more impactful strikes and get the nod from judges. However, Swanson's unorthodox style could make it closer than the odds suggest.

"I still feel like dawado should be able to do what he needs to do to get his hand raised I just want none of that chalky price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Cub Swanson but with low confidence. He thinks the line is accurate and would prefer Dawodu at a better price. He sees Cub having a puncher's chance and notes that if Dawodu fights at his usual low volume, Cub could outwork him and eke out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident and has other underdogs he'd rather bet.

"I suppose I will select Cub for the purposes of this show but I have other underdogs that I'm wasting money on this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson, citing Swanson's accumulated damage and small size for featherweight. He notes Dawodu's strength and clinch work, predicting he will hurt Swanson to the body with knees and get a finish in the third round. He references Swanson's past body-shot losses to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Max Holloway.

Finish in the third round by knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Hakeem dawa do over Cub Swanson"
LOSS vs Julian Erosa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 74 of 147 50% 90 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Hakeem Dawodu 0 92 of 188 48% 152 of 257 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 31 of 57 54% 36 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 48 of 87 55% 60 of 99 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Julian Erosa 0 21 of 39 53% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 51 43% 47 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
3 Julian Erosa 0 22 of 51 43% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 50 44% 45 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 74 of 147 50% 43 of 109 18 of 21 13 of 17 57 of 126 16 of 20 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 92 of 188 48% 60 of 149 28 of 32 4 of 7 59 of 149 24 of 30 9 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 31 of 57 54% 14 of 36 10 of 12 7 of 9 23 of 48 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 48 of 87 55% 32 of 67 15 of 16 1 of 4 34 of 72 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 21 of 39 53% 16 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3 16 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 35 6 of 11 5 of 5
3 Julian Erosa 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 50 44% 15 of 43 7 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 42 4 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Erosa relies on his chin and was losing to a lower-level striker before getting late takedowns. He thinks Dawodu's technicality and power will be too much, and he has a moneyline bet on Dawodu.

moneyline bet on Dawodu
"I love Hakeem Dawodu I love him in this fight I have a money line bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by second-round knockout, praising Dawodu's striking and power. He notes Julian Erosa is very hittable and has been knocked out multiple times, while Dawodu looked phenomenal in his last fight. He believes Dawodu is the better striker and will land clean, though he acknowledges Erosa is always in exciting fights and could finish himself.

second round knockout
"I think Keem knocks him out I'll say in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Cody picks Hakeem Dawodu, noting his clean technical striking and that he is a better striker than Erosa. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as Erosa is a wild fighter who often leads to finishes. He believes Dawodu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will pick Erosa apart.

Under 2.5 rounds at +120
"i think the wadu wins but i like the under more um for my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu confidently. He praises Dawodu's technical striking, low stance, and volume, and considers him a top-15 featherweight. He notes Erosa's tendency to get dropped but come back, but believes Dawodu's technical soundness will prevent a comeback. Levi sees Dawodu winning by knockout or decision.

"I do have hakim dawa do to win this fight but i gotta give credit to arosa."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Jacob agrees, saying if the fight stays clean, Dawodu dominates in a kickboxing match. He notes Erosa's only chance is to turn it into a brawl, but Dawodu has good takedown defense. He thinks Dawodu should win easily but might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup as an underdog.

might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup
"If this stays clean there is not many people in the UFC in the featherweight division that are gonna beat Hakeem in a clean kickboxing match."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The host is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, expecting his crisp striking, discipline, and distance management to outpoint the wild and hittable Erosa. He sees a decision win as the most likely path and notes Dawodu's decision prop at +140.

Hakeem Dawodu by decision (+140)
"Give me Hakeem Dawodu by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Paul is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, calling him one of his anchors. He praises Dawodu's Muay Thai and technique, and believes his takedown defense is sufficient. He expects Dawodu to win by late stoppage or decision, as Erosa is wild and loopy with his strikes. He notes that Erosa fights down to his opponent's level.

"at -220 i feel like hakeem is going to be one of my anchors this week i think he's a better striker takedown defense is good enough to keep this fight standing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by 29-28 decision, losing the third round but winning the first two. He notes Dawodu had a bad weight cut, so Erosa's pace may get to him later. Dawodu will pick at Erosa at range, chew up his leg, land body shots, and win clinch exchanges. Erosa may steal the third round with pressure, but Dawodu's first two rounds secure the win.

decision 29-28
"I think we're gonna see a 29-28 decision by Hakeem dawadu losing the third round but winning the first two"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 0 141 of 214 65% 189 of 266 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:46
Michael Trizano 0 70 of 133 52% 94 of 158 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 43 of 81 53% 45 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Michael Trizano 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 52 of 74 70% 73 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Michael Trizano 0 23 of 40 57% 29 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Hakeem Dawodu 0 46 of 59 77% 71 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Michael Trizano 0 22 of 45 48% 40 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 141 of 214 65% 60 of 121 52 of 62 29 of 31 123 of 195 18 of 19 0 of 0
Michael Trizano 70 of 133 52% 36 of 94 25 of 29 9 of 10 54 of 110 16 of 23 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 43 of 81 53% 15 of 45 11 of 17 17 of 19 42 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Trizano 25 of 48 52% 10 of 30 9 of 11 6 of 7 23 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 52 of 74 70% 21 of 39 20 of 24 11 of 11 46 of 68 6 of 6 0 of 0
Michael Trizano 23 of 40 57% 11 of 28 9 of 9 3 of 3 19 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Hakeem Dawodu 46 of 59 77% 24 of 37 21 of 21 1 of 1 35 of 47 11 of 12 0 of 0
Michael Trizano 22 of 45 48% 15 of 36 7 of 9 0 of 0 12 of 29 10 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu as the more technical striker with real power. He notes Trizano is a calculated striker coming off an upset win, but Dawodu's forward pressure, leg kicks, and counter punching should prevail. Angelo mentions the odds are wide (3-1 favorite) and Trizano has shown he can beat superior strikers, but still favors Dawodu.

Odds comment: Dawodu is a 3-to-1 favorite, which Angelo thinks is wide.
"i like dawadu to win here i think he wins this fight uh my only issue is the odds are wide i mean dawa dudes messing around with a three to one favorite on some cars and mike trisano just …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Cody agrees that Trizano is a live underdog. He notes that Dawodu has a weak chin and low volume, while Trizano is a forward pressure fighter. He thinks the fight will be close and could go either way, so the plus money on Trizano is appealing.

"trisano is another one of these uh live underdogs"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu, praising his power, calf kicks, and feints. He notes Dawodu has fought tough competition like Zubaira Tukhugov and Julio Arce. Levi thinks Trizano is a point fighter who may try to eke out a split decision, but Dawodu's more impactful shots will win the exchanges. He expects Dawodu to bruise Trizano up and win a comfortable decision.

"give me dawadu to to come out here and just kind of get the better of the exchanges bruise them up a little bit and win a comfortable decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Lock of the Night leans Dawodu but does not bet the moneyline. He expects a close fight and likes Dawodu by decision at +110. He notes both are strikers and the fight likely goes the distance.

Dawodu by decision +110, fight goes to decision -195
"i got to go with my guy mean hakim i do think he ends up landing slightly more volume"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Paul thinks Trizano is a live underdog because he has better volume than Dawodu and can pressure him. He notes that Dawodu's fights are often low-output and close decisions, so the plus money is attractive. He believes Trizano's forward pressure could edge him a decision.

"i like what i see at trisano i think that he's got better volume than hakeem duardu"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his reach advantage and straight punches. He criticizes Michael Trizano's head movement, calling him a 'zombie' who walks into punishment. He predicts a 30-27 decision with Dawodu stuffing takedowns and landing straight shots for three rounds.

decision, 30-27
"i'm gonna go hakeem dawadu he's got a reach advantage and one thing i'm noticing here a king dowadous got really good straight shots"
LOSS vs Movsar Evloev
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Movsar Evloev 0 42 of 90 46% 193 of 266 9 of 13 69% 2 0 8:55
Hakeem Dawodu 0 39 of 92 42% 60 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Movsar Evloev 0 11 of 13 84% 69 of 74 4 of 6 66% 1 0 3:36
Hakeem Dawodu 0 7 of 18 38% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Movsar Evloev 0 14 of 15 93% 91 of 109 3 of 3 100% 1 0 4:34
Hakeem Dawodu 0 1 of 4 25% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:11
3 Movsar Evloev 0 17 of 62 27% 33 of 83 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:45
Hakeem Dawodu 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Movsar Evloev 42 of 90 46% 37 of 83 3 of 4 2 of 3 21 of 63 5 of 9 16 of 18
Hakeem Dawodu 39 of 92 42% 26 of 70 7 of 14 6 of 8 37 of 89 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Movsar Evloev 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3
Hakeem Dawodu 7 of 18 38% 6 of 14 0 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Movsar Evloev 14 of 15 93% 14 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 14
Hakeem Dawodu 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Movsar Evloev 17 of 62 27% 13 of 56 3 of 4 1 of 2 12 of 52 5 of 9 0 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 31 of 70 44% 20 of 54 7 of 12 4 of 4 29 of 67 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Big Brady picks Movsar Evloev, highlighting his well-rounded skills, including solid striking and excellent takedown game. He acknowledges Dawodu has a striking advantage but believes Evloev's takedowns and control time will edge out a decision win. He notes Evloev's undefeated record and impressive cardio.

Evloev by decision
"i'm going to say that the takedowns and the control time it does edge out the win for mosesville evolutive"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Cody leans towards Dawodu as an underdog, citing his striking pedigree and takedown defense improvements. He thinks if Dawodu can keep the fight standing, he has the advantage. He notes Evloev's wrestling is not elite and that Dawodu's style is tailored to upset grapplers.

"hakeem dawadu baby we need this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel Levi picks Movsar Evloev by decision, citing his relentless pace and clinch grappling. He acknowledges Dawodu's technical striking and calf kicks but believes Evloev's work rate and takedowns will be the difference. He notes that Evloev has shown championship qualities by escaping deep submissions. He thinks the line is a bit wide but still favors Evloev.

by decision
"i'm gonna go with mozware by decision you know outworking them"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Movsar Evloev

Evloev has a strong wrestling and grappling base, which should neutralize Dawodu's Muay Thai. The threat of takedowns will limit Dawodu's striking output, and Evloev's volume and cardio give him an edge. Dawodu is durable, so Evloev likely wins a decision. The value is on Dawodu, but Evloev is the safer pick.

Evloev by decision (-110)
"I do favor Movsar Evloev here... the threat of the takedown should affect Hakeem's ability to truly let his striking go... I will go with Movsar Evloev to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul passes on this fight. He acknowledges Dawodu's chances but is not confident either way. He notes Evloev has been a cash cow but the style clash makes it a live underdog situation.

"dogger pass situation for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu, questioning Evloev's grappling offense and power. He notes Dawodu's reach advantage and technical striking, and criticizes Evloev's close fights with Enrique Barzola and Nick Lentz. He predicts Dawodu wins a 29-28 decision by taking the first two rounds and surviving the third.

"i'm going with hakeem dawadu i think i'm going to pick against mozart evoluth here"
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 0 69 of 136 50% 70 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 35 of 93 37% 40 of 98 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 36 of 58 62% 37 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 21 of 54 38% 26 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:17
3 Hakeem Dawodu 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 69 of 136 50% 31 of 80 14 of 21 24 of 35 69 of 136 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 35 of 93 37% 31 of 88 4 of 5 0 of 0 34 of 92 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 13 of 41 31% 3 of 24 3 of 5 7 of 12 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 36 of 58 62% 20 of 38 8 of 9 8 of 11 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 21 of 54 38% 18 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Hakeem Dawodu 20 of 37 54% 8 of 18 3 of 7 9 of 12 20 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Big Brady leans toward Tukhugov in a close fight, citing his power and wrestling. He thinks Tukhugov will land harder shots and potentially use takedowns to edge a decision, despite being out-volumed. He's not very confident.

"gimme to hugov here in a very very close decision um you know not all that confident"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu as a dog, believing the fight should be closer to a pick'em. He notes Dawodu starts slow but improves as the fight progresses with his Muay Thai arsenal, while Tukhugov comes out hard early. He also mentions Tukhugov missed weight by five pounds and is without his coach Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov.

"with this dog odds i'ma take hakeem do i do to uh to edge out this fight and one that i think should be a pick em"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The host picks Hakeem Dawodu as a slight underdog, citing his superior striking, better gas tank, and higher output. He expects Tukhugov to slow down in later rounds, allowing Dawodu to take over. He predicts a third-round TKO for Dawodu.

Dawodu wins in round 3 (+1800)
"I do like duaduru in this fight again the overall better stand up artist here... i'm going to take him to win by third round tko."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

The MMA Guru picks Zubaira Tukhugov, believing he has more power and finishing ability. He thinks Tukhugov will crack Dawodu early, possibly with a KO, and notes Dawodu tends to have close decisions. He mentions the smaller cage favors Tukhugov's finishing chances.

Win by finish (KO)
"i'm going with zubaira took off getting a job done by finish i think he'll just be a little bit too fast and switched on early"
WIN vs Julio Arce
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 0 32 of 124 25% 64 of 162 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Julio Arce 0 55 of 139 39% 83 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 6 of 31 19% 12 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 13 of 39 33% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 9 of 42 21% 20 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Julio Arce 0 14 of 37 37% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:25
3 Hakeem Dawodu 0 17 of 51 33% 32 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Julio Arce 0 28 of 63 44% 34 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 32 of 124 25% 21 of 101 11 of 22 0 of 1 28 of 116 4 of 8 0 of 0
Julio Arce 55 of 139 39% 15 of 79 25 of 42 15 of 18 40 of 121 11 of 14 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 6 of 31 19% 3 of 25 3 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julio Arce 13 of 39 33% 2 of 17 6 of 14 5 of 8 11 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 9 of 42 21% 6 of 35 3 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
Julio Arce 14 of 37 37% 4 of 23 3 of 7 7 of 7 9 of 32 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Hakeem Dawodu 17 of 51 33% 12 of 41 5 of 9 0 of 1 15 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Julio Arce 28 of 63 44% 9 of 39 16 of 21 3 of 3 20 of 52 8 of 11 0 of 0
TKO (head kick) R3 4:09 · UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Jul 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 1 80 of 154 51% 89 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Yoshinori Horie 0 39 of 79 49% 41 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yoshinori Horie 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yoshinori Horie 0 13 of 24 54% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Hakeem Dawodu 1 44 of 72 61% 53 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Yoshinori Horie 0 15 of 29 51% 17 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 80 of 154 51% 42 of 95 27 of 44 11 of 15 38 of 99 42 of 55 0 of 0
Yoshinori Horie 39 of 79 49% 24 of 62 7 of 8 8 of 9 35 of 68 4 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 14 of 32 43% 4 of 18 3 of 7 7 of 7 13 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yoshinori Horie 11 of 26 42% 5 of 20 1 of 1 5 of 5 11 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 50 44% 8 of 25 11 of 19 3 of 6 14 of 38 8 of 12 0 of 0
Yoshinori Horie 13 of 24 54% 7 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 3 13 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Hakeem Dawodu 44 of 72 61% 30 of 52 13 of 18 1 of 2 11 of 30 33 of 42 0 of 0
Yoshinori Horie 15 of 29 51% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 20 4 of 9 0 of 0
WIN vs Kyle Bochniak
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 0 103 of 212 48% 103 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kyle Bochniak 0 42 of 109 38% 47 of 114 2 of 12 16% 0 0 1:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kyle Bochniak 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:36
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kyle Bochniak 0 12 of 32 37% 15 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Hakeem Dawodu 0 47 of 78 60% 47 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kyle Bochniak 0 20 of 51 39% 22 of 53 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 103 of 212 48% 51 of 146 35 of 48 17 of 18 99 of 208 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kyle Bochniak 42 of 109 38% 27 of 79 4 of 9 11 of 21 37 of 97 3 of 10 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 25 of 53 47% 9 of 32 6 of 11 10 of 10 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kyle Bochniak 10 of 26 38% 4 of 15 0 of 0 6 of 11 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 31 of 81 38% 16 of 60 12 of 17 3 of 4 30 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kyle Bochniak 12 of 32 37% 6 of 19 1 of 4 5 of 9 11 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Hakeem Dawodu 47 of 78 60% 26 of 54 17 of 20 4 of 4 44 of 75 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kyle Bochniak 20 of 51 39% 17 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 1 16 of 41 2 of 8 2 of 2
Julio Arce - Fight History
WIN vs Herbert Burns
TKO (punches) R2 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 2 29 of 79 36% 29 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Herbert Burns 0 15 of 57 26% 20 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 10 of 38 26% 10 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Herbert Burns 0 11 of 37 29% 16 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Julio Arce 2 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Herbert Burns 0 4 of 20 20% 4 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 29 of 79 36% 19 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 2 20 of 68 9 of 11 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 15 of 57 26% 9 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 10 of 38 26% 5 of 31 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 11 of 37 29% 7 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 2 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 19 of 41 46% 14 of 34 4 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 31 8 of 10 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 4 of 20 20% 2 of 16 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo is confident Julio Arce will win, citing his solid striking, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He criticizes Herbert Burns for quitting in his last fight and doubts Burns can get takedowns. However, he avoids betting due to Arce's long layoff and steep -550 price.

"Julio rce should win this fight if Julio wasn't coming off his own very long layoff I actually would consider him for the safety parlay but at minus 550 with a full year away I'm just going to enjoy whatever …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody is wary of Arce's layoff, weight class move, and injuries, but still picks him because Burns is unreliable and quits when his early submission doesn't work. He thinks Arce's volume and durability will carry him, but the -400 price is unappealing.

"I can never bet Herbert Birds just can't do it but I will admit at minus 400"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Daniel Vreeland picks Julio Arce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -400. He acknowledges Arce's solid striking and takedown defense but notes Burns' elite jiu-jitsu and motivation. He thinks Burns could get an early submission if Arce makes a mistake, but Arce is the safer pick. He won't lay the price.

"the pick is Julio but this is a doger pass situation at these odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Arce is a talented Muay Thai striker with head kicks and combinations. Burns has a terrible gas tank and fades if he doesn't finish early. Arce should stay at distance, land pot shots, and work the body. Burns will present early danger but Arce will take over in the second and third rounds, finishing via TKO. Prediction: Arce round 3.

Arce round 3
"I'm going to go RSA RSA round three give him a little time to really get into his Groove and then from there get burns out of there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Burns' history of quitting and Arce's potential advantages. He doesn't love the price but sees Arce as the likely winner.

"I can see why Julio Arch would be the favorite but at minus 400 is there any meat on the bone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce to survive an early storm from Herbert Burns and then take over. He believes Burns will go for a takedown early, but Arce will work his way out. Once things don't go Burns' way, he expects Burns to break and fade. He predicts a late second-round TKO for Arce.

late second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Julio late second round TKO"
LOSS vs Montel Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 0 26 of 126 20% 44 of 156 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Julio Arce 1 48 of 106 45% 64 of 127 0 of 3 0% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 4 of 22 18% 9 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Julio Arce 0 5 of 17 29% 15 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:09
2 Montel Jackson 0 15 of 58 25% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 19 of 46 41% 24 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:12
3 Montel Jackson 0 7 of 46 15% 10 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 1 24 of 43 55% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 26 of 126 20% 13 of 102 8 of 17 5 of 7 25 of 124 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 48 of 106 45% 39 of 95 5 of 7 4 of 4 33 of 82 4 of 5 11 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 22 18% 2 of 16 1 of 3 1 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 5 of 17 29% 3 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Montel Jackson 15 of 58 25% 7 of 47 5 of 8 3 of 3 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 19 of 46 41% 13 of 39 3 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Montel Jackson 7 of 46 15% 4 of 39 2 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 24 of 43 55% 23 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 22 2 of 2 11 of 19
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julio Arce vs. Montel Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-200), Arce (+170)

Round 1
Arce was victorious in his first appearance of 2022, while Jackson, who has won five of six UFC outings, will return to the Octagon for the first time in 14 months. Marc Goddard will be the third man in the cage. They touch gloves and we’re underway. Jackson changes levels within the first 30 seconds and shoves Arce into the fence. Jackson lands some knees to the body, but one lands on the cup, which prompts a warning from Goddard but no reset. Jackson thinks about a single-leg but Arce defends, and Jackson lands a short punch to the head instead. The crowd is already getting restless as Jackson continues to grind away against the fence. Goddard urges the combatants to stay busy. Arce can’t get his back off the fence and we’re halfway through the round when Goddard orders a restart in the center of the cage. Arce has a kick to the body partially blocked. He’s cautious, perhaps due to the threat of the Jackson takedown. Arce fires a straight to the body followed by a leg kick. Arce pressures and both men exchange jabs. Arce picks up the pace and fires off an overhand left. Jackson moves in with a right hook. Arce pressures as time winds down, and Jackson defends a takedown in the final 10 seconds. Arce muscles his opponent to the mat just before the horn, however.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce

Round 2
Arce again takes the center of the cage, and he lands a left hand as he backs Jackson up. An inside leg kick connects for Arce. An outside leg kick lands for Jackson. Arce continues to lead the dance and he moves in behind a right hook, but Jackson lands a counter in response. A right hook connects for Jackson. Another counter right lands for Jackson, who is having more success but isn’t landing in great volume. Jackson connects with a solid right. Arce throws a right hook and Jackson angles out. Jackson is sticking his right hand with some consistency now as Arce pressures. Jackson shoots for a takedown against the fence. He steps around and gets the back of his opponent. Jackson continues to grind away until the horn, mixing in a knee with some dirty boxing.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Arce comes out throwing combinations, but it’s Jackson who lands a right hand during an initial exchange. Moments later, Jackson puts Arce on his back with a stiff jab. Jackson assumes top position and works to land punches from inside Arce’s guard. Arce seems to have recovered, and he’s very active with his guard. Jackson is struggling to control the hips, and Arce nearly frames a triangle. Jackson works to stack Arce, but he is unable to pass at the 2:30 mark of the round. Arce sits up and then stands. Arce has some swelling under his left eye. Arce is not finding the range on his punches. Jackson finds an opening a tags Arce with a right hand. Arce pressures forward and whiffs on some looping punches. Arce moves in with punches and Jackson ties him up, shoving his foe into the fence. Jackson lands a short right on the break. Jackson with a straight left in the waning seconds, and he dodges a final Arce offering before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Julia Arce via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo believes Julio Arce is the better technical striker but has a suspect chin. He trusts Montel Jackson's wrestling and power, noting that Jackson's only losses are to wrestlers who out-grappled him. He thinks Jackson will win by using his takedowns and power, rather than trying to out-strike Arce. He mentions that the takedown prop lines will be interesting and that he will likely bet on Jackson's takedowns.

takedown lines on PrizePicks and BetOnline
"I trust montel's takedowns I have him winning this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by decision. He highlights Jackson's size, reach, power (10 knockdowns in UFC), and wrestling (over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 78% accuracy). He notes Arce has good takedown defense (94%) but hasn't faced many wrestlers. He believes Jackson will mix takedowns and land the bigger shots, winning a decision. He also mentions Jackson's youth and power advantage.

Jackson by decision
"give me Montel Jackson to win give me Montel Jackson to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody picks Arce, citing his excellent footwork, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He notes that Jackson has not fought top competition and that Arce's movement and striking should give Jackson trouble. Cody thinks if Jackson can't take Arce down, Arce will outpoint him. He is not highly confident but sees value at plus money.

"I do feel like Julio she has the goods to go out there and pull it off and a plus 175 I'm willing to take a slight flyer on that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Connor picks Arce, noting that Jackson has not improved in four years and lacks depth in his grappling and striking. He points out that Arce is a complete fighter with sharp footwork and counters, and that Jackson's wrestling is not good enough to hold Arce down. Connor also mentions that Arce has been getting better and has faced higher-level competition.

"I think RSA can edge this one out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson, citing his immense talent, power, wrestling, and physical attributes. He notes that Jackson has knockout power and a reach advantage, but his work ethic is questionable. Levi believes if Jackson shows up focused, he can dominate. He respects Arce's point-fighting style but thinks Jackson's power and wrestling will be the difference.

"give me Montel Jackson here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host believes Arce is the better technical striker with superior footwork and kicks, and his 94% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. He questions Jackson's competition level, noting his wins are over lower-tier opponents and he struggles against better grapplers. Arce's output and volume should frustrate Jackson, leading to a decision win. The host acknowledges Arce's durability concerns but sees value at +175.

"I think that this is a good spot to take an underdog shot on Julio or say at plus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul also leans towards Arce, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes that Jackson is enormous for the weight class and that Arce will have to eat shots to get inside, but if Arce keeps the fight standing, it should be close to a pick'em. Paul is not confident but goes with Arce.

"I'll lean ever so slightly towards Julio Archie with you but another spot I'm not too confident in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson, citing his underrated prospect status, massive hands, and physical advantages like a 5.5-inch reach advantage. He believes Jackson can outwork Arce on the feet and predicts a close split decision 29-28. He notes Jackson's grappling defense against good grapplers like Brett Johns and Ricky Simon.

"I'm going with Montel Jackson here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Zane picks Arce, emphasizing that Jackson's striking is one-dimensional and he lacks confidence in it. He notes that Arce's consistent style and ability to handle pressure fighters like Daniel Santos make him a good bet. Zane also points out that Jackson's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Arce has fought tougher opponents.

"I think RSA should be, uh, if anything, a slight to healthy favorite."
WIN vs Daniel Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 0 127 of 265 47% 127 of 265 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Daniel Santos 0 49 of 229 21% 49 of 229 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Santos 0 17 of 70 24% 17 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Julio Arce 0 41 of 78 52% 41 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Daniel Santos 0 18 of 79 22% 18 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
3 Julio Arce 0 47 of 109 43% 47 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Daniel Santos 0 14 of 80 17% 14 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 127 of 265 47% 100 of 228 25 of 35 2 of 2 125 of 262 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 49 of 229 21% 27 of 197 15 of 24 7 of 8 46 of 225 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 39 of 78 50% 34 of 71 5 of 7 0 of 0 37 of 75 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 17 of 70 24% 10 of 61 4 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 41 of 78 52% 28 of 61 11 of 15 2 of 2 41 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 18 of 79 22% 9 of 65 6 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julio Arce 47 of 109 43% 38 of 96 9 of 13 0 of 0 47 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 14 of 80 17% 8 of 71 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julio Arce (136.5: Missed Weight) vs. Daniel Gustavo Santos

Round 1
After a much-needed week away for the UFC, the promotion is coming back guns blazing as it takes to Jacksonville, Fla., for a tentpole pay-per-view. Two title fights and a very highly anticipated welterweight showdown will top off the dozen-bout card, and we begin with a fight scheduled at bantamweight that hit a slight snag. Arce (17-5, 4-3 UFC), who missed weight by half a pound, will welcome “Willycat” Santos (8-1, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion. The Brazilian was originally slated to make his debut in 2021, but a pair of fight cancelations pushed it back to this April event. Referee James Larry Folsom will oversee the first match of the evening, and there is an apologetic glove touch offered by Arce and accepted. The first strike attempt comes from Santos, who comes up short with a high kick as Arce bats it away and flicks out a jab. Santos bears down on him with a standard Chute Boxe-style plodding approach, and Arce dips out of the way when Santos swings wide. A spinning strike gets pulled back from Santos when he finds it would not reach his intended target, and Arce stays on the outside with long single strikes. Arce interrupts Santos coming in, but the Brazilian wings a few hooks at him that partially connect. Arce’s jab continues to find its home as Santos’ strikes have more arc on them, and the New Yorker is able to slide out of the way before they reach him. When Santos punches his way into a clinch, he punishes Arce with a clean elbow. He pushes off, and then storms forward with an up-elbow in the vein of Anderson Silva. Arce wears it well and walks into a right hand, but he does not seem overly concerned as he uses his footwork to stay safe. Santos swings and misses with a spinning hook kick, and Arce’s strikes are still very fundamental and effective, with a jab and a two that comes after every so often. Another spinning kick from Santos misses the mark, and Arce tags him with a few more crisp punches. Santos is still throwing everything he has into his strikes, and Arce sees them coming and evades the brunt of most of them. Arce times his jab and a cross to follow as Santos cannot seem to figure it out, as the Brazilian still meanders forward recklessly while throwing haymakers. One jab is followed by a head kick, and Santos absorbs it without missing a beat. Santos lets go with a heavy leg kick, and Arce replies with a head kick that rings his bell. Knowing Santos is hurt but still dangerous, Arce picks and pokes away at his opponent until the round ends, rather than burning his gas tank searching for a finish with seconds to go.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce

Round 2
The fighters come out of their corners to touch gloves in the middle, and Arce resumes his accurate jabbing approach. Santos, on the other hand, is far more aggressively, jumping in the air with a knee and throwing bombs. Arce takes one on the chin that gives him pause, and he is able to dance out of the way when more come from Santos. Seeing Santos charging at him to wind up with a huge right hand, Arce changes levels at the right moment to trip Santos’ leg out beneath him. Arce does not follow him to the ground, and instead just appeared to want to give Santos something else to think about. Santos gets back to his feet and continues his constant forward motion while Arce slips and rips his strikes. Santos lands at the end of a right hand, and Arce escapes out the back door and dodges a spinning wheel kick. Arce is far more mobile of the two, circling on the outside and pawing away strikes that come at him. The Brazilian lands a kick to the body, and Arce returns fire with two to the midsection, with the second colliding with the hip as Arce withdraws his foot gingerly. Arce pushes out a jab as Santos walks him down, and he dings Santos with a head kick. Santos bites down on his gumshield and throws heavy leather, clipping Arce but not slowing him down. Instead, Arce smartly circles away and targets the body with his fists. Santos is the bus that couldn’t slow down, continuously ignoring the offense coming his way and taking practically every jab flush. Santos begins to telegraph his wide strikes, and Arce is able to manage this by planting a clean one-two on the jaw. “Willycat” pays it no mind, steps back and launches a high kick that comes up short. Santos kicks low, and that strike does land, but a head kick shortly thereafter is off-target. Arce scores a right hand, throws a push kick to the chest, and has his leg caught. Before Santos can do anything with it, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce

Round 3
There is a final clap of hands to start off Round 3, and Arce gets on his bike early when Santos rushes at him with little defense. Santos gets popped on the chops from a couple sharp Arce punches, and he tries to let loose with a spinning kick that ends up colliding with the wall instead of his opponent. Arce blocks a body kick, and he paws out a handful of jabs as Santos looks for a superman punch. The heavier man is much sharper and practically landing at will, while Santos is all offense without landing much of note. Arce lands a jab and follows it with a left to the ribcage, and Santos grimaces and continues plodding ahead. Santos gives a half-hearted spinning high kick, and then changes things up with an Andy Hug-esque spinning kick to the thigh. Arce walks it off and peppers his foe with jabs and low kicks, doing well enough to keep Santos at bay or disturb him long enough to not get tagged by one of his power shots. Arce sticks him with a jab, slides out of the way from a swinging hook, and comes out with another jab. A double jab into a left hand stings Santos for a moment, but the Brazilian is not going to stop pressing forward. Even though he misses with a spinning back fist and a jumping switch kick, he does not lose heart, ever pushing forward and attacking. Arce can see most of these big shots coming and be out of harm’s way well in time, only to reset and put a jab in Santos’ face. A spinning back fist from Santos does not connect, but a kick to the midsection does push off of Arce’s liver. Arce replies with a head kick, not showing any concern with anything coming back at him. The jabs have begun to mark up Santos’ face, with swelling around the left eye. Throwing caution to the wind, Santos jumps forward with a rolling thunder kick, and Arce rocks him when Santos is on his knees after missing with the kick. Santos gets up, and he initiates a brawl that Arce obliges. They throw down right to the final bell, and this one is going to the scorecards but there shouldn’t be much doubt on who will get their hand raised.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arce (30-27 Arce)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce (30-27 Arce)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce (30-27 Arce)

The Official Result
Julio Arce def. Daniel Gustavo Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo picks Julio Arce but notes he likes Daniel Santos as a live underdog. He thinks Arce's wrestling can be key to slowing Santos' striking. He also likes a prop bet on Santos winning inside the distance with a safety net (refund if decision).

Daniel Santos wins inside the distance (decision no action) - safety net bet.
"juliars is the pick but i think what i'm going to do betting wise is daniel santos wins inside the distance but decision no action"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Cody leans towards Santos as an underdog, citing the unknown factor and Santos' two-and-a-half-year layoff for improvement. He notes Santos' spinning techniques and aggression, and that Arce has been knocked out before. Cody thinks Santos could be a live dog and plans to play him in DFS due to low ownership.

"i think i am going to play this santos kid"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Santos

Daniel Levi acknowledges Julio Arce's experience and fundamental soundness but sees Arce as having peaked, while Santos is a young, improving fighter with aggression and wrestling defense. He is concerned about Santos's three-year layoff and first time under bright lights, but believes Santos at 27 is a better version than at 24. At plus money, he is willing to roll the dice on the upset.

"at a price like this i'm willing to roll the odds and take him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

I love the underdog price on Santos. He is wild, aggressive, and crashes the pocket, which is where Arce struggles. Arce has trouble when opponents engage with him in the pocket. Santos can land big shots and possibly get a knockout. I'm taking Santos to win, probably by KO.

"I love this underdog price tag that we're getting on Daniel Santos at plus 160... I'm gonna take Daniel Santos I'm gonna pick him to win this fight probably by KO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul picks Arce but has a bad feeling about it. He notes Arce's skill set as a former golden glove boxer and BJJ black belt, but worries about his chin after being knocked out by Song. Paul thinks Santos is dangerous with spinning attacks but is hittable and lacks defense. He expects Arce to win on skill but acknowledges Santos could clip him.

"i'm going to take rj but i got a feeling that i might be paying for this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The MMA Guru picks Julio Arce, citing his experience and veteran savvy. He expects Santos to start fast but fade, with Arce winning the second and third rounds. He predicts a 29-28 decision, noting that Arce is a high-level unranked bantamweight with good wins.

"i am going to be going with julio arse here in the opening fight of the card"
LOSS vs Song Yadong
TKO (head kick and punches) R2 1:35 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Song Yadong 1 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Julio Arce 0 13 of 78 16% 13 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Song Yadong 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 5 of 46 10% 5 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Song Yadong 1 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Julio Arce 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Song Yadong 30 of 80 37% 15 of 60 8 of 12 7 of 8 27 of 77 0 of 0 3 of 3
Julio Arce 13 of 78 16% 7 of 69 4 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Song Yadong 17 of 52 32% 6 of 37 6 of 9 5 of 6 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 5 of 46 10% 3 of 42 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Song Yadong 13 of 28 46% 9 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3
Julio Arce 8 of 32 25% 4 of 27 2 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julio Arce vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is a fun bantamweight scrap between rising Chinese contender “Kung Fu Monkey” Song (17-5-1, 1 NC; 6-1-1 UFC) and Season 1 Contender Series signee Arce (17-4, 4-2 UFC). The fists and feet are sure to fly, and referee Herb Dean may have his hands full here. There is a sporting touch of gloves to check in the hostilities, and Song is the aggressor right out of the gate. The offense is minimal but Song is controlling the cage, forcing Arce to back off and drawing reactions from his feints. Suddenly, Song bursts forward with swinging punches, and Arce dances out of the way and eats a right hand. Song scores a low kick, and he evades a few jabs and walks in to one as he tries to attack. Song goes up high with a kick, and Arce slides out of the way and keeps looking for his range with his jab. Song swarms his man with punches, but Arce blocks and ducks out of the way in time to not absorb anything flush. Arce tries to counter with a head kick, and Song swats it out of the way. A striking stalemate ensues as neither man goes after anything of note, with Song occasionally throwing bombs that hit nothing but air. A quick melee ensues as they both throw caution to the wind briefly, but they back off to try to get to a calmer pace and range shortly after. Song charges forward with a right and a left, and the left hook gets Arce’s attention. Song plods forward, and they trade heavy body kicks. Arce finally gets the distance of his jab, and Song thanks him for this by booting him to the midsection with his instep. Song whiffs on a quick punch, and he chains it into a combination that does land. They both whip quick kicks at one another, with the strikes glancing off the guards. The accuracy may be low but the speed between these two bantamweights is high. Song chops down low with a kick, and the round ends with Song trying to throw leather.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The 135ers rush out of their corners to attack, and Arce slings a high kick in the early going that gets blocked. Arce turns a few punches into a heavy leg kick, and the kick makes Song stumble. Arce puts a bit of a pace of his foe, but he soon backs off when Song lands a flush kick to the midsection. Arce flicks out a few jabs and a leg kick that Song tries to defend but still absorbs cleanly. Song rings a right hand home, and Arce is soon to answer him.
A massive head kick from Song cracks Arce on the side of the head, and Arce is stunned and wobbles his way back to the cage wall while Song gives chase. Song does not let him off the hook, sensing that Arce is hurt badly, and he starts letting loose with a ferocious punch combination that smashes into Arce again and again. The fists continue to land for Song, who is unleashing a fury as he seeks a finish. Arce crumbles, and Dean tries to leap in and stop the fight but misses the mark.
This allows Song to keep on pounding on a defeated Arce, and Dean gathers himself to halt the fight once and for all. The contender out of China is now the first man to knock Arce out as a professional, and proves he is one to watch at 135 pounds.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Julio Arce R2 1:35 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his power and speed advantage. He acknowledges that Arce is more technical but thinks Song's volume and power will be frustrating. Angelo considers this a close fight and is surprised by the odds.

"i have song winning here but this is a close fight i this is another one i think the odds are wide"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady slightly edges Song Yadong, citing his youth (23), power, and improvement at Team Alpha Male. He expects a striking fight with no takedowns, and while Arce is talented, Brady thinks Yadong will land the harder shots and win a close decision. He admits it's a very competitive fight and not confident.

Yadong by decision
"i'll take song yodong to get the win i'll take him to one by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody is concerned about Arce's lower volume compared to Yadong. He thinks Yadong throws a lot of strikes and Arce needs to stay at range. He calls it a close fight and a 'dog or pass' situation, but leans slightly to Arce.

"i think it's a close fight and i'll i'll side with you dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, emphasizing his power as one of the hardest hitters in the bantamweight division. He believes Song's impactful shots will sway the judges even if he lands slightly less than Arce. Levi notes that Arce has better defense but Song's forward pressure and power will be the deciding factor in a close fight. He also mentions Song's ability to get back up if taken down.

"give me a song to edge this one out slightly"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Jacob picks Julio Arce, liking his power and technical boxing. He thinks Arce can land big counters and possibly knock Song out. Jacob notes that Song gets hit and that Arce has the ability to steal rounds with grappling if needed.

"i like arson this just just for the power i think he's got a little bit more power than your dong"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul likes Arce as a smooth operator who looked career-best after elbow surgery. He thinks Arce's kickboxing and BJJ are solid, and that Yadong slows down in fights. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and takes the underdog.

"give me that plus 10 plus 110 underdog in julia"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song Yadong by split decision (29-28). He expects a close fight with Yadong's power and speed giving him an edge early, but Arce coming on in the third round. Yadong will win rounds one and two, with Arce taking the third, but Yadong gets the nod on two scorecards.

split decision 29-28
"i'm calling a split decision because listen i know people call me out for like oh you always pick a split decision"
WIN vs Andre Ewell
TKO (punches) R2 3:45 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 0 42 of 113 37% 44 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Andre Ewell 0 31 of 97 31% 31 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 18 of 53 33% 20 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Andre Ewell 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julio Arce 0 24 of 60 40% 24 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andre Ewell 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 42 of 113 37% 27 of 88 6 of 15 9 of 10 42 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Ewell 31 of 97 31% 10 of 63 10 of 18 11 of 16 31 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 18 of 53 33% 12 of 42 1 of 6 5 of 5 18 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Ewell 13 of 50 26% 5 of 36 4 of 6 4 of 8 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 24 of 60 40% 15 of 46 5 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Ewell 18 of 47 38% 5 of 27 6 of 12 7 of 8 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo picks Julio Arce because he is a high-volume striker with good striking defense and movement, and he mixes his boxing and kicks well. He notes that Andre Ewell has cardio issues due to his size and can't grapple. He expects Arce to win by decision after a potential slow first round due to his two-year layoff. He likes the 3.5 round prop on Ewell (buying a round) because Ewell might win the first round when fresh, then fade. He also likes the more/more on monkey knife fight.

Andre Ewell 3.5 round prop (buy a round on judge's scorecard); more/more on monkey knife fight
"i think he can take the first round when he's fresh and he's long and the range is trying to get figured out"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Big Brady picks Julio Arce by decision, noting Arce's superior competition and cardio advantage. He expects the fight to be competitive early but Arce will take over in the third round as Ewell slows down. He highlights Arce's positive striking differential and Ewell's tendency to fade. He thinks the line (-190) is a bit wide but still favors Arce.

"i'm gonna say rsa does win a pretty uh close decision in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody picks Arce, citing his slick boxing and good grappling. He thinks the move down to 135 is good for him. He notes Arce has been off due to surgeries but expects him to land the more impactful strikes. He likes Arce's chances as long as the weight cut works out.

"give me the guy landing the more impactful strikes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Andre Ewell

Daniel Levi picks Andre Ewell as a plus-180 dog, believing the line is off. He notes that Ewell is long for the weight class with a 75-inch reach, and that Arce tends to fight close. Levi expects a three-round stand-up war with both having moments, and predicts Ewell via split decision. He acknowledges Arce's better technical skills but thinks Ewell can make it close.

"i'm going to go with andre via split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Jacob picks Julio Arce because he is a Golden Gloves boxing champion coming down to bantamweight, so Andre Ewell won't have the usual size advantage. He notes that Arce has never been KO'd and has good head movement. He thinks Arce will have no issues with Ewell and has him in his DraftKings lineup.

"julio is actually coming down in weight he's he's had that layoff but he's actually coming he's usually a featherweight guy coming down to bantamweight so andre won't be as big as he normally is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce, noting his striking and grappling advantage, as well as his cardio edge. He expects Arce to pressure Ewell, who tends to fade in later rounds. He mentions Arce's layoff and ring rust concerns but believes his overall skills will prevail. He likes Arce by decision at +125 and also mentions a potential round three finish.

Arce by decision +125; Arce round three +1375 (sprinkle)
"i do like rsa rc by decision plus 125. that's going to be the side that i'm leaning with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul also picks Arce, noting his superior boxing, southpaw stance, and overall skills. He warns about Ewell's reach and tendency to make fights close, but thinks Arce's wrestling and jiu-jitsu give him an edge. He is concerned about the layoff and surgeries but still picks Arce.

"i'm going to hit this one minus one on the julio rj and hope he brings it on home for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Andre Ewell

The Guru picks Ewell as an underdog, noting Arce's lack of leg kicks, which he suspects is due to shin issues. He believes Ewell's reach and range will be decisive, as Arce has no way to close distance or chop the legs. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Ewell, keeping the fight at range.

"i'm going with andre you're as an underdog here"
LOSS vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 0 32 of 124 25% 64 of 162 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Julio Arce 0 55 of 139 39% 83 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 6 of 31 19% 12 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 13 of 39 33% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 9 of 42 21% 20 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Julio Arce 0 14 of 37 37% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:25
3 Hakeem Dawodu 0 17 of 51 33% 32 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Julio Arce 0 28 of 63 44% 34 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 32 of 124 25% 21 of 101 11 of 22 0 of 1 28 of 116 4 of 8 0 of 0
Julio Arce 55 of 139 39% 15 of 79 25 of 42 15 of 18 40 of 121 11 of 14 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 6 of 31 19% 3 of 25 3 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julio Arce 13 of 39 33% 2 of 17 6 of 14 5 of 8 11 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 9 of 42 21% 6 of 35 3 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
Julio Arce 14 of 37 37% 4 of 23 3 of 7 7 of 7 9 of 32 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Hakeem Dawodu 17 of 51 33% 12 of 41 5 of 9 0 of 1 15 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Julio Arce 28 of 63 44% 9 of 39 16 of 21 3 of 3 20 of 52 8 of 11 0 of 0
WIN vs Julian Erosa
KO (head kick) R3 1:49 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 1 74 of 160 46% 74 of 160 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Julian Erosa 0 43 of 160 26% 46 of 164 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Julian Erosa 0 12 of 49 24% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Julio Arce 0 34 of 72 47% 34 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 21 of 74 28% 22 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Julio Arce 1 26 of 45 57% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 37 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 74 of 160 46% 61 of 142 12 of 17 1 of 1 71 of 155 2 of 4 1 of 1
Julian Erosa 43 of 160 26% 23 of 129 15 of 24 5 of 7 39 of 151 4 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 14 of 43 32% 14 of 41 0 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 12 of 49 24% 4 of 35 6 of 11 2 of 3 11 of 46 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 34 of 72 47% 25 of 62 8 of 9 1 of 1 32 of 69 2 of 3 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 21 of 74 28% 11 of 61 8 of 10 2 of 3 18 of 68 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Julio Arce 26 of 45 57% 22 of 39 4 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Julian Erosa 10 of 37 27% 8 of 33 1 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Sheymon Moraes
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sheymon Moraes 0 25 of 119 21% 46 of 145 1 of 5 20% 2 0 4:10
Julio Arce 2 32 of 102 31% 35 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sheymon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 22 of 37 0 of 3 0% 2 0 3:21
Julio Arce 1 7 of 17 41% 8 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
2 Sheymon Moraes 0 5 of 35 14% 5 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:49
Julio Arce 1 13 of 43 30% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Sheymon Moraes 0 18 of 72 25% 19 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sheymon Moraes 25 of 119 21% 16 of 97 9 of 21 0 of 1 23 of 114 2 of 5 0 of 0
Julio Arce 32 of 102 31% 22 of 83 9 of 18 1 of 1 16 of 69 9 of 13 7 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sheymon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julio Arce 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 14
2 Sheymon Moraes 5 of 35 14% 3 of 29 2 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 33 0 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 13 of 43 30% 9 of 33 3 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 32 3 of 5 2 of 6
3 Sheymon Moraes 18 of 72 25% 11 of 56 7 of 16 0 of 0 17 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 12 of 42 28% 7 of 34 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 35 5 of 7 0 of 0