UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 41
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dominick Reyes
5.39 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.49 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chris Weidman
3.11 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.37 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
3.27 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Dominick Reyes - Fight History
WIN vs Johnny Walker
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 34 of 73 46% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dominick Reyes 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 34 of 73 46% 10 of 35 7 of 17 17 of 21 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 42 of 80 52% 7 of 31 6 of 11 29 of 38 41 of 78 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 10 of 19 52% 5 of 11 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 17 of 28 60% 2 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 18 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 9 of 19 47% 4 of 12 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 13 of 28 46% 3 of 14 1 of 5 9 of 9 12 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Reyes 15 of 35 42% 1 of 12 2 of 8 12 of 15 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 12 of 24 50% 2 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 11 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.

"I'm going to pick Dominick. I think he's just the more technical of the two. If he can avoid getting caught up in the craziness, then he should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.

first round knockout
"I'm going to lean Dominick Reyes... give me Dominick Reyes to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.

"I am going to actually go with Dominic Grace as well... I just feel like Reyes is going to be able to snipe him, hit him with something before the damage comes the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"So I have to pick Reyes here. Yeah, I don't think he's actually at SVG Ireland anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.

"I think that Dominic Reyes has always been slightly better than Johnny Walker. Slightly a bit more technical, more well-rounded, and has just accomplished a little bit more than Walker. So, I'm going to pick him for that reason."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.

over 1.5 rounds (+158)
"I'm going to go Walker for nothing more to play devil's advocate. Like I said, this is a 50/50 fight to me."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.

"Walker is probably my lean on this one, but not with any amount of confidence cuz I don't rate Walker particularly highly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.

"I'm picking Johnny Walker in this one, right? And the reason I'm doing that is because he's a little bit more unorthodox and I feel like if you're unorthodox you can catch Dominic Reyes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.

Walker wins by knockout
"I end up siding with Walker ever so slightly. I think he'll end up finding that chin on Reyes and putting him away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.

"I'm gonna I'm gonna side with Dom Reyes just because I I prefer his his striking technique, his style."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.

"I'm going to go with Dominic Reyes getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"Reyes really should just be able to sit down on one twos, check a couple kicks, be reasonably composed while Walker either throws himself wildly forward or throws himself wildly backward."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
KO R1 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.

Expects decision; no finish.
"I'm going to pick Carlos Uber here. I think this is mostly a striking matchup and Carlos is the better striker. While Dominic Reyes has the torso of a giraffe, the reality is he doesn't use his reach very well. …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.

fourth round knockout
"I'm going to go Bberg here. Here, I'm going to goberg by fourth round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.

"I just feel like the value here is clearly on Dominic Rays that should be able to keep this these striking exchanges close has a little more experience, has been five rounds before and then might have low key better …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.

"I think I have to pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.

knockout
"I'm calling Carlos Orberg here. I'm calling Carlos Orberg pretty confidently here. ... I'm going to say knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.

by KO
"I'm predicting Carlosberg in this one. I think he's the better striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.

closer fight than odds indicate
"Reyes obviously has the athleticism and power to change the tide of any fight, but I believe it's going to be the technical advantages of Alberg that causes Reyes to walk onto a counter and eventually get knocked out. This …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.

third round TKO
"I think Carlos Allberg has got this one in the bag."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.

"I think I'm gonna pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
WIN vs Nikita Krylov
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.

"Dominic Ray has got back on track in an emphatic fashion. You know, knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.

He predicts Krylov wins inside the distance.
"I'm going to side with Kryov here. I'll say he gets it done inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
WIN vs Anthony Smith
TKO (elbows and punches) R2 4:46 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 121 of 162 74% 172 of 232 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 48 of 76 63% 53 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dominick Reyes 0 73 of 86 84% 119 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 121 of 162 74% 110 of 149 8 of 10 3 of 3 48 of 75 17 of 22 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 48 of 76 63% 38 of 64 8 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 73 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 73 of 86 84% 72 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 16 of 19 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.

"Anthony Smith is going to be the pick though cry about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.

"I'll take Reyes... likely third round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.

Connor mentions the odds are getting wider, with Smith at +248 to +273, and says he doesn't like those odds because Reyes' losses were bad.
"I'm gonna pick anthony smith a guy go for it. Yeah make i'll pick reas but I do not trust dominic reas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.

"I simply think that Reyes is a better fighter than Anthony Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.

"I think that would lead to Reyes touching up Smith from distance throughout the course of 15 minutes and getting his hand raised on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.

"I can't touch Dominic Reyes... it's dog or pass for me, leaning pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.

Reyes wins by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going Dominic Reyes I think Anthony Smith is terrible"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.

Zane comments on the odds, noting Reyes opened at -345 and is now -329, and says that a shocking knockout win over Jacoby does not make Reyes back.
"I think ray's is gonna hurt him and pick up a round and feel pretty good about himself... I would like to see ray as win."
WIN vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punches) R1 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.

"I think Dustin jacobe wins this fight while he is a very high level technical kickboxer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.

"I'm taking Dustin jacobe to win this fight I'll take him to Win It by decision but I want nothing to do with this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.

Dominick Reyes to win by split or majority decision
"I have to take a couple greasy dogs and Rees is one of those greasy dogs so I'll take Dom Rees and just hope to God that the year off the couple years off the time off I should say …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.

knockout
"I think uh I think jacobe actually comes out here and knocks him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think that jab is eventually just going to wear down Dominic ryes I'm going be rooting for him man I hope he comes through"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.

knockout
"I'm going to lean jacobe here minus 225 just makes me a little bit queasy... I'm going to lean Jobe by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.

"I am tempted to bet Dominic Reyes but like for what purpose like he's he's obviously shown that you know Ryan span knocking him out in the first round that's the other guys Yuri and and yon bovic two guys …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.

Decision win prediction; mentions 29-28 or 30-27 scorecards
"you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong... I'm going to say that jacobe wins a decision"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
KO (punches) R1 1:20 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann (206.6: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)

Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.

"I'm gonna hold off on a pick here watch our Tuesday night breakdown maybe I'm more confident then"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.

Reyes by KO in round 1; not recommended for betting
"give me Dominic Reyes give me Dominic Reyes by knockout in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.

"I know this one's probably a bad call but I'll I'm spamming Underdog and I think on Ryan's fan... I just think on a card that I again agree with a lot of the favorites I feel like there's maybe …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.

"Dominic Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.

Predicts a knockout win for Reyes; odds mentioned: Reyes -225, Spann +190 at DraftKings
"I think Dominic Reyes gets back on track like the guys that have been beating Reyes are all Champions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.

over 1.5 rounds (-120)
"I do lean Reyes here I just can't get past or behind that minus 225 line considering his layoff"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.

"I'm gonna pick Dominic Reyes here I just think uh if this fight does get extended which a lot of spam fights do not Reyes should absolutely like lap lap em in uh in volume."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.

guillotine choke
"I think I'm gonna go over Ryan's bam"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.

"Unless the bond gets really lucky early, uh, Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
KO (spinning back elbow) R2 4:29 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 63 of 108 58% 68 of 114 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 1 77 of 136 56% 78 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 0 45 of 81 55% 45 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 24 of 42 57% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 32 of 55 58% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 63 of 108 58% 39 of 81 21 of 24 3 of 3 57 of 100 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 77 of 136 56% 61 of 119 16 of 17 0 of 0 70 of 122 1 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 39 of 66 59% 25 of 51 12 of 13 2 of 2 39 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 45 of 81 55% 36 of 71 9 of 10 0 of 0 44 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 24 of 42 57% 14 of 30 9 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 34 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 32 of 55 58% 25 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 43 0 of 0 6 of 12
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.

under 2.5 rounds, first round knockout
"i'm gonna take dominic reyes here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.

under 1.5 rounds (lean)
"i am going to go yeary in this spot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with uh the favorite here yuri prohaska to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.

Jiří Procházka by KO at +125; Over 1.5 rounds at -155; Fight won't start round 4 at -210; Fight won't start round 3 at -130
"I do like pro husks guy here i think he gets it done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.

under 2.5 rounds (preference)
"i'm gonna take yuri as well i'm leaning towards that under one and a half but honestly one i'd rather be under two and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.

second round TKO
"i'm going with yuri project man got the momentum tko second round over dominic reyes"
LOSS vs Jan Błachowicz
TKO (punches) R2 4:36 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 41 of 89 46% 41 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 26 of 53 49% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 21 of 51 41% 9 of 35 2 of 5 10 of 11 21 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 41 of 89 46% 25 of 70 6 of 9 10 of 10 37 of 83 1 of 2 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 10 of 20 50% 3 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 7 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 15 of 36 41% 2 of 22 5 of 6 8 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 31 35% 6 of 23 1 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 53 49% 23 of 48 1 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 47 1 of 2 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.

Reyes by third-round knockout
"give me dominic reyes i'm going to say uh third round knockout for dominic reyes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.

dog or pass situation; plus 230 on yom blakovich in a title fight
"i'm gonna slightly edge reyes here just because he gave jones that tough fight but like dude this might be a situation where you pick reyes and bet yamlakova just because of the betting odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.

over 2.5 rounds, Błachowicz by decision
"I like yamahovich in this spot but for some reason i just can't pull the trigger... i'm actually going to go with yamblahovic to win this fight by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.

Win by KO in round 1 or 2
"i think he'll catch jan blackovich in the first or second round with a big shot and finished a job much like santos did"
Chris Weidman - Fight History
LOSS vs Eryk Anders
TKO (punches) R2 4:51 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Eryk Anders 1 16 of 36 44% 27 of 50 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:15
Chris Weidman 0 62 of 102 60% 121 of 193 0 of 6 0% 0 0 4:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Eryk Anders 1 13 of 26 50% 20 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:10
Chris Weidman 0 11 of 23 47% 12 of 29 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Eryk Anders 0 3 of 10 30% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Chris Weidman 0 51 of 79 64% 109 of 164 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Eryk Anders 16 of 36 44% 11 of 30 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 23 0 of 2 4 of 11
Chris Weidman 62 of 102 60% 56 of 96 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 25 7 of 12 48 of 65
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Eryk Anders 13 of 26 50% 8 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 0 of 2 4 of 11
Chris Weidman 11 of 23 47% 8 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 10 7 of 12 1 of 1
2 Eryk Anders 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 51 of 79 64% 48 of 76 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 47 of 64
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Angelo flips his pick from Chris Weidman to Eryk Anders. He cites Weidman's age (40), potential frustration from not getting paid after the canceled fight, and the loss of the Madison Square Garden atmosphere. He believes Anders' physicality, power, and aggression will overwhelm Weidman, who has a questionable chin. Angelo acknowledges the fight is at 195 lbs, which may favor Anders.

"I am going to go Eric Anders here I flip my pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Cody picks Weidman, citing his wrestling advantage and experience. He notes Anders' inconsistency and recent losses. He expects a close decision win for Weidman, possibly by outworking Anders.

Weidman by decision
"Widman by decision... I'm in agreement."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Eryk Anders

Connor is very confident in Anders, stating he will never pick Chris Weidman to win again. He notes that Weidman is washed and that his recent win over Bruno Silva was against a shot fighter. Connor points out that Anders has been slowly improving technically over the years, while Weidman has not shown any improvement and is only getting older. He believes Anders' athleticism and steady development will be too much for Weidman.

Connor explicitly says: 'I'm telling you if you have money to spare and you like to bet, bet a little on eric anders.' He also notes the odds are near even, with Anders at -101.
"I don't care what happened in this last fight I don't care what the official result is i'm never picking chris wide men to win a fight again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Daniel picks Weidman, noting Anders' tendency to choke in big fights and his recent knockdowns. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and believes Weidman's grappling will be the difference. He mentions he previously bet Weidman at better odds.

"I'm still going to go with Widman. I'm not going to change my pick."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Weidman

This is a tough matchup to predict given both fighters are further along in their careers. However, Weidman showed impressive activity and comfort in the striking realm against Bruno Silva earlier this year. He will utilize that to mix in his clinch grappling and striking to win on the scorecards.

"I was impressed with wiman's activity and comfort in the Striking R against Bruno Silva earlier this year and I expect him to utilize that here to mix in his clinch grappling and striking game alt together to win this …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Paul picks Weidman, noting his superior wrestling and fight IQ. He criticizes Anders' cardio and durability, and thinks Weidman can grind out a decision. He acknowledges Weidman's age but believes he has enough left.

"I think Weidman... it's Weidman for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

The MMA Guru picks Weidman, noting the fight is at a catchweight which benefits the older Weidman. He thinks Weidman's wrestling and game plan will be too much for Anders, who he considers a B-level middleweight. He predicts Weidman out-wrestles Anders and wins by decision 30-27.

"I'm going with widman I think he's good I think weidman's good in general"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Eryk Anders

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Anders confidently. He notes that Weidman is completely washed and that Anders has been getting better year after year, albeit slowly. Zane points out that Weidman's only recent win was against a similarly shot Bruno Silva, and that his other recent fights have been close against aging opponents. He believes Anders' athleticism and improved technique will be enough to beat Weidman.

"We're both picking eric anders that's all we did not pick chris wide man."
WIN vs Bruno Silva
Technical Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 2:18 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Weidman 1 75 of 111 67% 88 of 129 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:15
Bruno Silva 0 30 of 88 34% 30 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Weidman 0 20 of 30 66% 32 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:09
Bruno Silva 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Weidman 0 45 of 64 70% 45 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 19 of 63 30% 19 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Weidman 1 10 of 17 58% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bruno Silva 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Weidman 75 of 111 67% 44 of 74 14 of 19 17 of 18 56 of 88 5 of 7 14 of 16
Bruno Silva 30 of 88 34% 28 of 81 2 of 4 0 of 3 29 of 86 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Weidman 20 of 30 66% 9 of 16 2 of 4 9 of 10 6 of 13 5 of 7 9 of 10
Bruno Silva 4 of 8 50% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Weidman 45 of 64 70% 25 of 42 12 of 14 8 of 8 45 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 19 of 63 30% 18 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 3 18 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Chris Weidman 10 of 17 58% 10 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 6
Bruno Silva 7 of 17 41% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bruno Silva vs. Chris Weidman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-285), Weidman (+230)

Round 1
The feature fight of “UFC Atlantic City” features former middleweight champ Weidman, fighting near his Long Island home turf and looking to reverse the fortunes that have seen him go 2-7 since his title loss to Luke Rockhold eight years ago. His foe, Silva, will attempt to reclaim some of the shine he earned after knocking out his first three UFC foes upon his arrival in 2021, before embarking on a dismal 1-4 run of his own. Overseeing the proceedings will be referee Gary Copeland. Weidman is orthodox, Silva southpaw. Weidman is reaching out with the lead hand, looking to tie up or parry the hand of Silva. Weidman throws a right kick, then another, getting some work for the leg he broke against Uriah Hall a couple of years ago. Weidman goes upstairs with the left leg, then throws a pair of punches up the middle that hurt Silva. Silva ties Weidman up and looks for a takedown. Weidman takes a front headlock and throws some knees to the head of Silva. Weidman moves to the back, holding Silva with a rear waistlock and dragging him to his knees. Silva posts his hands on the ground, forestalling any more knees to the head, and builds back up to all fours. Silva uses the fence to deny Weidman full back control, but Weidman is throwing short strikes and keeping the Brazilian completely corralled. Under a minute to go and it’s all Weidman, as Silva is parked against the fence, defending himself but doing nothing else. Weidman is throwing knees to the back of Silva’s legs, and the round ends in that position.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Weidman

Round 2
Silva is bouncing on his toes, showing both stances. He catches a Weidman kick and pushes him over onto his seat, but Weidman pops back up. Weidman comes forward, reaching with the left hand and throwing kicks with both legs. Weidman lands a right kick to the body. Silva comes back with a pair of punches that land. Silva steps in and throws a pair of big hooks that glance off of Weidman’s arms. Weidman lands a body punch, then in the next collision, thumbs Silva right in the eye. Copeland calls time and gives Silva time to recover. There is a moment of confusion as Copeland requests a towel to clear the eye, but thankfully it arrives and they go back to work a few seconds later. Weidman immediately goes back to the right body kick, and Silva answers with a pair of punches. Weidman changes levels but Silva is all over it. Weidman catches Silva with a punch that makes him stumble, but Silva recovers quickly. Silva throws a huge hook that misses by a mile, nearly spinning him around. Silva rushes forward with hooks, all of them wild, but several land nonetheless. Weidman answers with punches of his own. Both men have been rocked. Weidman catches Silva with another left hook, backs him up to the fence and lets fly. Silva is in some trouble, even as he tries to throw back, but the round expires before either man can capitalize.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Weidman

Round 3
Silva throws a lead right hook, which Weidman slips and counters with a left. Seconds later, each man pokes the other in the eye almost simultaneously, though Silva appears to get much the worse of it, going to his hands and knees in pain as Weidman steps away blinking. During the ensuing time-out, Copeland tries to determine whether both blows were fingers or one was a fist. It turns out that both strikes were fouls, and the fighters go back to work after a warning. Weidman goes back to reaching with the left hand, and Silva goes upstairs with a huge head kick that misses high. Two minutes gone in the rounds and Weidman steps in with a straight right.
Silva leaps in with a pair of punches, and Weidman levels him with a short counter punch. Silva goes down pawing at his eye, but Weidman swings away and Copeland is there in seconds for the stoppage. Weidman celebrates to the roars of the crowd as Silva protests.
Replay shows that Weidman actually managed to poke Silva in both eyes—one with each hand!—rather than any clean punch. This is going one of the weirdest endings to a fight on a card full of weird fight endings.
The fight result is initially announced as a TKO win for Weidman. A few minutes later, however, the UFC booth states that the result will go down as a unanimous decision win for Weidman, based on the scorecards up to the point of the fight-ending foul. No individual scores are announced, nor is it clear whether the third round was scored at all, or if any point deduction was assessed for the final pair of eye pokes.

The Official Result
Chris Weidman def. Bruno Silva via Technical Decision (Unanimous).
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Angelo picks Bruno Silva despite being a Chris Weidman fan. He notes Silva hits hard and is tough, while Weidman looked old and slow in his last fight after a broken leg. He thinks this is one of Weidman's last winnable fights but believes Silva will get it done. He does not bet because he would be rooting against Weidman.

"I still got to pick Bruno Silva I am going to be cheering for Chris Weidman the entire time so don't expect to see a bet on Bruno"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Big Brady picks Bruno Silva to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Weidman has a path via submission due to Silva's poor ground game, but believes Silva's power will be too much for the aging Weidman, who has been knocked out multiple times. Brady notes Weidman hasn't had a good performance since 2017 and expects Silva to land a knockout.

"I'm going to take Bruno Silva to knock him out give Chris wman like his seventh knockout loss in his career Give me Bruno Silva to win this fight by give me first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody believes Weidman is completely shot, citing his age, injuries, and poor recent performances. He thinks Silva's power and aggression will overwhelm Weidman early, possibly by leg kicks or overhand rights. He notes Silva's cardio issues but expects a finish before that becomes a factor.

"I think something just hurts why early whether it be a leg kick that just demobilizes him again hobbles him up whether it be an overhand right that just crashes in on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Bruno Silva, citing his 20-0 knockout ratio and Weidman's age, leg break, and history of getting knocked out. He believes Weidman will fatigue after early takedown attempts and that Silva will land a knockout. He notes Silva's submission losses but thinks Weidman won't be able to submit him due to Silva's ability to survive and get back up.

"I got Bruno blindado and it's like I said I was already fading Wyman prior to the leg break"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Weidman is 1-4 in his last five, aging, and his body can't absorb damage like before. Silva has knockout power and should time Weidman's entries for an uppercut or explosion. Weidman may get a takedown or two but lacks finishing ability at this stage. Silva by knockout in the second or third rounds is likely, but the minus 285 line is too wide to bet.

Silva by knockout; minus 175 KO prop is still too wide
"I do think that we see Silva find that knockout in the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul picks Silva but without much enthusiasm, calling Weidman 'beyond beyond dead.' He notes Silva's inconsistent performances and high price (-260) but sees no reason to back Weidman given his decline.

"I guess I'll pick Bruno Silva but I don't really have much intention of betting this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

The host picks Bruno Silva to win by TKO, citing Weidman's age (39), compromised leg, and lack of finishing potential on the feet. He believes Silva's low kicks will be effective and that Weidman will be hesitant. He predicts a TKO, though he initially considered a decision.

TKO
"Bruno is going to win by TKO Weidman has no finishing potential on the feet in my opinion"
LOSS vs Brad Tavares
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Tavares 0 37 of 92 40% 39 of 94 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:21
Chris Weidman 0 70 of 115 60% 71 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Tavares 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
Chris Weidman 0 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brad Tavares 0 20 of 41 48% 22 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
Chris Weidman 0 27 of 44 61% 28 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brad Tavares 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Chris Weidman 0 27 of 42 64% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Tavares 37 of 92 40% 30 of 77 5 of 12 2 of 3 35 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 70 of 115 60% 21 of 61 8 of 9 41 of 45 68 of 113 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Tavares 7 of 20 35% 5 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 0 of 0 8 of 8 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brad Tavares 20 of 41 48% 16 of 32 3 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 27 of 44 61% 8 of 23 5 of 5 14 of 16 25 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Brad Tavares 10 of 31 32% 9 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 1 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 27 of 42 64% 5 of 17 3 of 4 19 of 21 27 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

Angelo picks Brad Tavares despite believing Chris Weidman is the better fighter everywhere. He cites Weidman's two-year layoff, age (39), and horrific leg injury as major unknowns. He thinks Tavares will be a step ahead and faster, but admits he could be wrong and hopes Weidman wins. He advises against betting this fight due to the uncertainty.

"I still think that line is wide... Brad Tavares is going to win this fight... save your money just watch this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

Big Brady picks Brad Tavares to win by third-round knockout, calling it his hot take. He believes Weidman's takedown attempts will be stuffed by Tavares' elite takedown defense, wearing on Weidman's gas tank. Brady notes Weidman hasn't impressed since 2017 and has been knocked out in all six losses, while Tavares is tough and has never been knocked out.

win by KO, round 3
"my hot take for the week is actually think uh Brad Tavares knocks out Chris Weidman... third round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Cody argues that Tavares is a gatekeeper with no knockout power and all his wins are by decision against lower-level opponents. Weidman, despite the leg break and layoff, has a wrestling advantage and could control Tavares. He thinks the line is too favorable to Tavares and likes Weidman as a value underdog, likely by decision.

over 1.5 rounds at -200; fight time over 11 minutes; Weidman by decision
"I will take that plus money on Chris Weidman but Whiteman on the PRP don't be a coward"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

Daniel Levi confidently picks Brad Tavares, arguing that Weidman has been washed up since pre-pandemic and has declined significantly since USADA testing. He notes that Weidman has been knocked out in six of his last eight fights and gasses after round one. Levi praises Tavares' takedown defense and balance, and believes Tavares will stuff takedowns, get Weidman to a fatigue state, and either out-volume or knock him out. He is waiting for a better price but is comfortable with Tavares.

Waiting for minus 250 or better; Tavares by knockout or decision
"I think Brad's close to the end but I think Chris is past the end... I'm gonna go Brad Tavares"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Brad Tavares

Lucrative James confidently picks Brad Tavares, citing Chris Weidman's horrific leg injury, age (39), and being washed before the injury. He believes Tavares will finish Weidman, as Weidman has been finished in six of his last seven fights. He sees no value on the underdog here.

"I think Tavares is going to go out there and finish him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Weidman has a clear path to victory via grappling. Tavares is not a knockout threat and has been taken down by wrestlers before. Weidman's durability has held up recently, and at +220 the line is too wide. He should be able to grind out a decision or possibly find a submission.

"I'm going to take a shot on the All-American for him to go out there and get his hand raised by a decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares over Chris Weidman. He cites Weidman's long layoff after a leg break and doubts his KO ability. He praises Tavares' takedown defense and durability, noting he hung in with Dricus du Plessis. He expects Tavares to outpoint Weidman on the feet, possibly winning by TKO in rounds 2-3 or a 30-27 decision.

TKO in round 2 or 3, or decision 30-27
"I'm gonna have to go with Brad Tavarez over Weidman"
LOSS vs Uriah Hall
TKO (leg injury) R1 0:17 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uriah Hall 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Weidman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uriah Hall 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Weidman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uriah Hall 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uriah Hall 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Big Brady picks Hall to win by third-round knockout. He notes Weidman's chin is questionable after five KO losses, and his cardio looked poor in his last fight. Hall has power and a good gas tank. He expects Weidman to have early success but eventually get caught. He suggests looking at Hall by KO props.

Hall by KO in round 3
"i'm going to take hole to win by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Cody leans toward Hall as a dog, noting Hall's late-fight finishing ability and Weidman's durability concerns. He thinks Weidman's cardio and chin are questionable and that Hall can find a knockout in the later rounds. He suggests a third-round prop for Hall and live betting after round one if Weidman tires. He acknowledges Weidman's wrestling but believes Hall's striking and resilience give him a path.

Uriah Hall by KO in round 3 (+1500), live betting on Hall after round 1
"i almost feel like i want to take a dog or pass type approach to this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Uriah Hall

Daniel picks Uriah Hall, expecting him to catch Weidman in the second or third round after Weidman fatigues. He notes Weidman's tendency to win the first round but fade, and that Hall has power and a better gas tank. He believes Weidman cannot eat Hall's shots.

"i just really think that uri hall is gonna catch him in the second or third round after probably getting taken down in the first"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Uriah Hall

I'm leaning Hall by knockout. Weidman's chin is a huge concern, and Hall has power. Weidman will likely try to take the fight to the ground, but if he can't finish early, he tends to fade. Hall's best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot. I like Hall by KO at +250, but I'm not confident enough to bet heavily due to Hall's low volume.

Hall by KO +250
"i'm going to ride hall i'm going knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Paul picks Weidman but is hesitant, citing Weidman's wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Hall's flashy striking and comeback ability but thinks Weidman can secure takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges Weidman's compromised chin and cardio issues but believes his top control will be enough to win a decision. He also mentions a potential Hall third-round prop as a live underdog play.

Uriah Hall by KO in round 3 (+1500), live betting on Hall after round 1
"i have to go with weidman because why because if he secures takedowns in two rounds i'm pretty confident he can probably maintain position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

The MMA Guru picks Chris Weidman by decision, 30-27. He notes that Weidman out-grappled Hall in their first fight and rates Weidman's grappling higher than Antonio Carlos Jr.'s, who took Hall down multiple times. He thinks in a three-round fight, Weidman can sprint with his grappling and smother Hall, though Hall might win the third round. He plans to wait for better odds on Weidman.

waiting for better odds on Weidman
"i'm gonna go with chris weidman here and i'm gonna wait to put my money on it"
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Weidman 0 33 of 91 36% 60 of 118 4 of 8 50% 0 0 1:34
Omari Akhmedov 0 29 of 56 51% 67 of 98 5 of 16 31% 0 0 8:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Weidman 0 6 of 25 24% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Omari Akhmedov 0 5 of 15 33% 13 of 24 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:59
2 Chris Weidman 0 25 of 62 40% 32 of 69 4 of 7 57% 0 0 1:34
Omari Akhmedov 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 40 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Chris Weidman 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Omari Akhmedov 0 9 of 11 81% 31 of 34 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Weidman 33 of 91 36% 25 of 81 7 of 9 1 of 1 21 of 74 8 of 11 4 of 6
Omari Akhmedov 29 of 56 51% 25 of 50 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 42 1 of 2 11 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Weidman 6 of 25 24% 4 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Omari Akhmedov 5 of 15 33% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Weidman 25 of 62 40% 20 of 55 5 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 49 5 of 7 4 of 6
Omari Akhmedov 15 of 30 50% 12 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Chris Weidman 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Omari Akhmedov 9 of 11 81% 9 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 8 of 8
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Big Brady picks Weidman despite his recent losing streak, citing advantages in wrestling, submission game, and reach. He believes Weidman can take Akhmedov down and avoid a brawl, using a smart game plan similar to Stephen Thompson's. However, he is concerned about Weidman's durability and history of getting knocked out. He predicts a decision win for Weidman.

Maybe Akhmedov KO prop if odds are right
"i like chris weidman to win this fight by decision i think he's going to really tire out akhmed off and if you fight smart this is a such a winnable fight for white men"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Omari Akhmedov

Daniel Levi picks Omari Akhmedov to win, possibly by left hook knockout. He argues that Chris Weidman is 'damaged goods' with five knockout losses in his last six fights, and that Akhmedov has underrated power and durability. Levi dismisses the narrative that Akhmedov gasses in the third round, noting that at middleweight he has shown better cardio and even wobbled Ian Heinisch in the third. He also points out that Weidman's chin is suspect and that Akhmedov's wrestling and pressure will be too much.

left hook knockout
"i got omari ahmeda be a left hook knockout here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Omari Akhmedov

Weidman's chin is a major concern after multiple KO losses, and Akhmedov has power even if he lacks finishes on his record. Akhmedov's wrestling is solid and he has cardio to push the pace. Weidman has advantages in striking and size, but if he gets hit, he could go down. Akhmedov by KO in the second round is the pick, but it's a risky bet.

Akhmedov inside distance +200, Akhmedov by KO
"I'm going with Omari to win this fight by second round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

The MMA Guru picks Chris Weidman to win by second-round submission via arm triangle. He notes that Omari Akhmedov has a gas tank problem and slows down dramatically, while Weidman has five-round experience and a five-inch reach advantage. He believes Weidman can take Akhmedov down, drain his power, and finish him in the second round. He worries about Weidman's chin but thinks Akhmedov won't have a chance to land cleanly.

second round submission, arm triangle
"wideman's going to go in there get a double leg ride out the first round and then in the second round go for the takedown again akhmadov's going to be way more gassed out and wideman is going to sink …"
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
KO (punches) R1 1:43 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 11 72% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Chris Weidman 0 3 of 6 50% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 11 72% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Chris Weidman 0 3 of 6 50% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 5
Chris Weidman 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 5
Chris Weidman 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2
LOSS vs Jacare Souza
KO (punches) R3 2:46 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jacare Souza 0 68 of 193 35% 76 of 201 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Chris Weidman 1 74 of 132 56% 100 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jacare Souza 0 23 of 68 33% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Weidman 0 14 of 30 46% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jacare Souza 0 26 of 64 40% 34 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Chris Weidman 0 31 of 59 52% 50 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jacare Souza 0 19 of 61 31% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Weidman 1 29 of 43 67% 35 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jacare Souza 68 of 193 35% 52 of 171 14 of 20 2 of 2 61 of 182 7 of 11 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 74 of 132 56% 42 of 89 24 of 31 8 of 12 57 of 109 15 of 21 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jacare Souza 23 of 68 33% 21 of 65 2 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 14 of 30 46% 5 of 16 5 of 7 4 of 7 11 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jacare Souza 26 of 64 40% 16 of 50 8 of 12 2 of 2 23 of 58 3 of 6 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 31 of 59 52% 19 of 43 10 of 13 2 of 3 21 of 46 9 of 12 1 of 1
3 Jacare Souza 19 of 61 31% 15 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 29 of 43 67% 18 of 30 9 of 11 2 of 2 25 of 36 3 of 6 1 of 1
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:45 · UFC on Fox: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Jul 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Weidman 0 36 of 76 47% 75 of 124 7 of 13 53% 2 0 7:35
Kelvin Gastelum 1 26 of 47 55% 28 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Weidman 0 9 of 25 36% 16 of 35 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:43
Kelvin Gastelum 1 13 of 20 65% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Chris Weidman 0 10 of 15 66% 33 of 43 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:47
Kelvin Gastelum 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Weidman 0 17 of 36 47% 26 of 46 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:05
Kelvin Gastelum 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Weidman 36 of 76 47% 25 of 59 6 of 12 5 of 5 24 of 59 6 of 9 6 of 8
Kelvin Gastelum 26 of 47 55% 21 of 42 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Weidman 9 of 25 36% 5 of 17 1 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 20 65% 12 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 1 10 of 10
2 Chris Weidman 10 of 15 66% 7 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 7
Kelvin Gastelum 2 of 7 28% 0 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Weidman 17 of 36 47% 13 of 31 3 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 32 3 of 3 1 of 1
Kelvin Gastelum 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0