Career Averages - Alex da Silva Coelho
Career Averages - Kazula Vargas
Alex da Silva Coelho - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 33 of 82 | 40% | 91 of 144 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 54 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 24 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 31 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 27 of 73 | 36% | 36 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 28 of 65 | 43% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 33 of 82 | 40% | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 35 of 76 | 46% | 20 of 58 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 29 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 27 of 73 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 28 of 65 | 43% | 16 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.
Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.
Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 67 of 166 | 40% | 86 of 185 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 54 of 112 | 48% | 70 of 133 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Riddell | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 19 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:22 | |
| 2 | Brad Riddell | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 37 of 71 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 | |
| 3 | Brad Riddell | 0 | 35 of 89 | 39% | 36 of 90 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Riddell | 67 of 166 | 40% | 47 of 142 | 13 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 61 of 158 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 54 of 112 | 48% | 35 of 91 | 10 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 49 of 105 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Riddell | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 13 of 20 | 65% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Brad Riddell | 25 of 59 | 42% | 16 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 18 of 43 | 41% | 10 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Riddell | 35 of 89 | 39% | 27 of 78 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 23 of 49 | 46% | 19 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Riddell, impressed by his hands and pace. He thinks da Silva's competition is weak and that Riddell will out-strike him, forcing bad takedowns and finishing in the third round. He acknowledges da Silva's submission threat but believes Riddell's get-up game is strong.
Daniel Levi leans Brad Riddell because he has been more impressed with his precision, calmness, and improvements in takedown defense. He notes Alex da Silva Coelho has not shown his Muay Thai in the UFC and may not be confident striking. He is not sure about laying -340 but picks Riddell to win.
The host picks Alex da Silva as a live underdog, believing the line on Riddell is too wide. He notes that da Silva has a solid path to victory via grappling and that Riddell's wins are not dominant. He expects a close fight and predicts da Silva wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing his experience against high-level UFC competition, including a win over Magomed Mustafaev. He thinks Riddell is one fight away from a ranked opponent and will make a statement with a TKO finish. He notes Alex da Silva has lost to gatekeepers and hasn't jumped that level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 59 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 88 of 130 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 | |
| 2 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 41 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 | |
| 3 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Kazula Vargas | 17 of 39 | 43% | 14 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Kazula Vargas | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kazula Vargas | 5 of 16 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Yakovlev | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Yakovlev | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 | |
| 2 | Alexander Yakovlev | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Yakovlev | 14 of 19 | 73% | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Yakovlev | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alexander Yakovlev | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Kazula Vargas - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Rodrigo Vargas (Kazula Vargas) with a 51-49 edge, citing Paddy's poor chin and tendency to get hit. He notes that Vargas hits harder than Paddy's last opponent and is less hittable. He acknowledges Paddy's superior ground game but thinks if Paddy stands and trades, his chin will be tested. He calls it the hardest pick on the card and says the odds are crazy (Paddy at -500).
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by submission. He notes Vargas has poor takedown defense (25%) and is content to stay on his back, which won't work against a black belt like Pimblett. Brady also mentions Vargas is 36 and has fought weak competition. He sees Pimblett getting takedowns and finishing on the mat, possibly late.
Cody picks Vargas as a dog, citing Paddy's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He thinks Vargas has better stand-up and leg kicks, and notes Vargas's sneaky guillotine. He believes Paddy's hype is overblown and that Vargas can win if it stays standing.
Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, having bet him earlier at -320 in a parlay. He views Vargas as a sacrificial lamb, too slow and hittable, and believes Pimblett will finish him. Levi notes that Vargas's wins are questionable (e.g., against Zubaira Tukhugov) and that he lacks the tools to exploit Pimblett's flaws. He expects a highlight-reel KO or submission, as Pimblett is motivated by showmanship and stardom.
Pimblett should use his grappling to dominate Vargas, who was taken down by Rongzhu. Pimblett has good top pressure and submissions, and Vargas won't be ready for that approach. The fight doesn't go to decision at -270 is a good parlay piece. Pimblett isn't top-10 material, but this is a squash match. I'm picking Pimblett via second-round submission.
Paul picks Paddy, arguing that Vargas is old and has poor grappling and takedown defense. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference, and that even if it stays standing, Paddy has better volume and cardio. He acknowledges the price is high but thinks Paddy wins.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett but thinks the odds (-400) are too high; he should be around -200. He predicts a first-round submission via rear-naked choke after a hip toss. He acknowledges Vargas is a solid prospect and notes Pimblett has been dropped before, but believes his grappling will be the difference. He expects a back-and-forth on the feet before Pimblett takes over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 96 of 176 | 54% | 111 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 42 of 105 | 40% | 49 of 114 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kazula Vargas | 0 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 47 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kazula Vargas | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 | |
| 3 | Kazula Vargas | 0 | 41 of 81 | 50% | 41 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 29 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazula Vargas | 96 of 176 | 54% | 50 of 121 | 29 of 34 | 17 of 21 | 94 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 42 of 105 | 40% | 40 of 101 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kazula Vargas | 47 of 82 | 57% | 17 of 47 | 18 of 21 | 12 of 14 | 47 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 13 of 32 | 40% | 11 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kazula Vargas | 8 of 13 | 61% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Kazula Vargas | 41 of 81 | 50% | 30 of 66 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 41 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by second-round knockout. He believes Rong Zhu is a much more technical striker with harder hits, and that Vargas is wild and low-output. He also notes Rong Zhu has good ground and pound if he takes Vargas down. He expects a finish because both fighters have high finish rates.
Cody leans toward Zhu, noting his youth and striking. He acknowledges Vargas's wrestling but thinks Zhu's aggression and cardio will be factors. He is not confident due to the lack of tape on Zhu and the -255 price. He passes on betting.
Daniel picks Rong Zhu, believing he is the best Chinese prospect on the card and that Kazula Vargas is not UFC caliber. He notes Zhu's length and aggression, and expects him to land better shots. He is not sure about the -250 line but still picks Zhu to win.
I think Rong Zhu has the most potential among the Chinese debutants. He's well-rounded with solid grappling and striking, and he's only 21 with 20 pro fights. Vargas is durable but limited; he's been finished only by Jose Caceres. I expect the fight to stay standing and Zhu to outpoint him, possibly finishing late. The prop I like is Zhu by KO at +135, but I'm not investing serious money due to the unknowns.
Paul picks Vargas as a dog, citing Zhu's takedown defense issues and Vargas's wrestling. He notes Zhu's youth and potential but thinks Vargas can exploit the grappling gap. He likes the plus money and thinks the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He also mentions that Zhu is on the card because of the Chinese market.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu by TKO in the second round. He is impressed by Zhu's highlight reel and activity, noting he has a 10-fight win streak and disguises his wins among lesser competition. He thinks Vargas is older and not as good, and that Zhu will finish him via ground and pound after Vargas survives a bit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brok Weaver | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 50 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brok Weaver | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 50 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brok Weaver | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 15 of 29 | 51% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brok Weaver | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 15 of 29 | 51% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Daniel Levi picks Brok Weaver to win, but thinks the fight will be closer than the line indicates. He notes Weaver's volume striking and wrestling advantage, but also Vargas's knockout power. He expects Weaver to mix in takedowns and win by decision or submission, but warns that Vargas could land a knockdown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 59 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 88 of 130 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 | |
| 2 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 41 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 | |
| 3 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Kazula Vargas | 17 of 39 | 43% | 14 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Kazula Vargas | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kazula Vargas | 5 of 16 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
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