UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 73"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Alex da Silva Coelho
2.14 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.52 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.97 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kazula Vargas
3.65 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
1.77 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.4 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Alex da Silva Coelho - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Solecki
Decision (majority) (28–28, 28–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 33 of 82 40% 91 of 144 1 of 4 25% 3 0 4:51
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 35 of 76 46% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 3 of 5 60% 24 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:11
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 6 of 8 75% 17 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:32
2 Joe Solecki 0 3 of 4 75% 31 of 34 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:40
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Joe Solecki 0 27 of 73 36% 36 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 28 of 65 43% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 33 of 82 40% 32 of 81 0 of 0 1 of 1 30 of 77 1 of 3 2 of 2
Alex da Silva Coelho 35 of 76 46% 20 of 58 11 of 12 4 of 6 29 of 67 1 of 2 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Joe Solecki 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joe Solecki 27 of 73 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 1 of 1 26 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 28 of 65 43% 16 of 50 9 of 10 3 of 5 25 of 60 1 of 2 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alex da Silva Coelho

Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.

considering a plus 3.5 round buy bet on da Silva
"this pick is really hard and i think i'm leaning alex here but i might change that later in the week i'm really really torn here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex da Silva Coelho

Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.

da Silva by decision
"I will take to silva i'm hoping and banking on him hoping hoping to make improvements here in terms of the cardio"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.

"i think eventually he finds the back puts the body triangle in and just wears on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"pure pick solecki just because i think he's proven a little bit more and because i think he kind of know he's kind of comfortable with who he is as a fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.

Solecki by submission or decision
"i'm leaning towards selecting by decision but to be honest a selective third round submission something like that wouldn't surprise me either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.

"i'm gonna go with joe salecki he's a [ __ ] good grapp"
LOSS vs Brad Riddell
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Riddell 0 67 of 166 40% 86 of 185 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:24
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 54 of 112 48% 70 of 133 3 of 9 33% 1 1 5:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Riddell 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 13 of 20 65% 19 of 30 3 of 3 100% 1 1 3:22
2 Brad Riddell 0 25 of 59 42% 37 of 71 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:29
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 18 of 43 41% 22 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:15
3 Brad Riddell 0 35 of 89 39% 36 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 23 of 49 46% 29 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Riddell 67 of 166 40% 47 of 142 13 of 16 7 of 8 61 of 158 5 of 7 1 of 1
Alex da Silva Coelho 54 of 112 48% 35 of 91 10 of 12 9 of 9 49 of 105 4 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Riddell 7 of 18 38% 4 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 13 of 20 65% 6 of 13 3 of 3 4 of 4 10 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Brad Riddell 25 of 59 42% 16 of 49 6 of 7 3 of 3 22 of 54 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 18 of 43 41% 10 of 34 4 of 5 4 of 4 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Brad Riddell 35 of 89 39% 27 of 78 5 of 7 3 of 4 32 of 86 2 of 2 1 of 1
Alex da Silva Coelho 23 of 49 46% 19 of 44 3 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Big Brady picks Riddell, impressed by his hands and pace. He thinks da Silva's competition is weak and that Riddell will out-strike him, forcing bad takedowns and finishing in the third round. He acknowledges da Silva's submission threat but believes Riddell's get-up game is strong.

Riddell by third-round knockout
"i'm gonna go with riddell here to get a knockout uh dasilva has never been knocked out but he's also you know not fought the best competition"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

Daniel Levi leans Brad Riddell because he has been more impressed with his precision, calmness, and improvements in takedown defense. He notes Alex da Silva Coelho has not shown his Muay Thai in the UFC and may not be confident striking. He is not sure about laying -340 but picks Riddell to win.

"i have to lean riddell just because i've been more impressed with what i've seen so far he's so precise so calculated so calm"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex da Silva Coelho

The host picks Alex da Silva as a live underdog, believing the line on Riddell is too wide. He notes that da Silva has a solid path to victory via grappling and that Riddell's wins are not dominant. He expects a close fight and predicts da Silva wins by decision.

"I'd be happy taking a small shot at da silva here i think the kid's talented and i think he's gonna upset some people."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Brad Riddell

The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing his experience against high-level UFC competition, including a win over Magomed Mustafaev. He thinks Riddell is one fight away from a ranked opponent and will make a statement with a TKO finish. He notes Alex da Silva has lost to gatekeepers and hasn't jumped that level.

Win by TKO finish
"i think brad riddell is going to go out there and make a statement against alex de silva getting it done by tko finish"
WIN vs Kazula Vargas
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 20 of 42 47% 59 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:18
Kazula Vargas 0 17 of 39 43% 88 of 130 3 of 4 75% 0 0 12:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex da Silva Coelho 0 8 of 12 66% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:18
Kazula Vargas 0 3 of 6 50% 16 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
2 Alex da Silva Coelho 0 6 of 13 46% 27 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kazula Vargas 0 9 of 17 52% 41 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:14
3 Alex da Silva Coelho 0 6 of 17 35% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kazula Vargas 0 5 of 16 31% 31 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex da Silva Coelho 20 of 42 47% 16 of 37 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 34 0 of 0 7 of 8
Kazula Vargas 17 of 39 43% 14 of 35 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 28 1 of 1 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex da Silva Coelho 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 7
Kazula Vargas 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Alex da Silva Coelho 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kazula Vargas 9 of 17 52% 8 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 7
3 Alex da Silva Coelho 6 of 17 35% 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kazula Vargas 5 of 16 31% 3 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:10 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Yakovlev 0 14 of 19 73% 18 of 23 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:13
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 8 of 19 42% 10 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Yakovlev 0 7 of 10 70% 9 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:32
2 Alexander Yakovlev 0 7 of 9 77% 9 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:01
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Yakovlev 14 of 19 73% 9 of 14 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 6 5 of 5 7 of 8
Alex da Silva Coelho 8 of 19 42% 3 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 11 3 of 3 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Yakovlev 7 of 10 70% 2 of 5 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 7 of 16 43% 2 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2
2 Alexander Yakovlev 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 8
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3
Kazula Vargas - Fight History
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:49 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 3 of 6 50% 5 of 8 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:53
Kazula Vargas 0 7 of 9 77% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 3 of 6 50% 5 of 8 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:53
Kazula Vargas 0 7 of 9 77% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1
Kazula Vargas 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1
Kazula Vargas 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)

Angelo picks Rodrigo Vargas (Kazula Vargas) with a 51-49 edge, citing Paddy's poor chin and tendency to get hit. He notes that Vargas hits harder than Paddy's last opponent and is less hittable. He acknowledges Paddy's superior ground game but thinks if Paddy stands and trades, his chin will be tested. He calls it the hardest pick on the card and says the odds are crazy (Paddy at -500).

odds comment: Paddy at -500 on some books
"right now i'm going to say rodrigo vargas and i'm going to say it is 51 to 49 and again the only reason is because patty chin up in the air just begging to get hit in the mouth"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by submission. He notes Vargas has poor takedown defense (25%) and is content to stay on his back, which won't work against a black belt like Pimblett. Brady also mentions Vargas is 36 and has fought weak competition. He sees Pimblett getting takedowns and finishing on the mat, possibly late.

submission
"give me a patty pamblet to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kazula Vargas

Cody picks Vargas as a dog, citing Paddy's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He thinks Vargas has better stand-up and leg kicks, and notes Vargas's sneaky guillotine. He believes Paddy's hype is overblown and that Vargas can win if it stays standing.

took kazula vargas plus 400 on the money line
"i took kazula vargas plus 400 on the money line"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, having bet him earlier at -320 in a parlay. He views Vargas as a sacrificial lamb, too slow and hittable, and believes Pimblett will finish him. Levi notes that Vargas's wins are questionable (e.g., against Zubaira Tukhugov) and that he lacks the tools to exploit Pimblett's flaws. He expects a highlight-reel KO or submission, as Pimblett is motivated by showmanship and stardom.

Parlayed Pimblett with Kevin Holland for +2 units; Pimblett by KO/TKO +140 mentioned as value
"vargas is a sacrificial lamb in this fight he's being brought in to lose and he's going to be treated accordingly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Pimblett should use his grappling to dominate Vargas, who was taken down by Rongzhu. Pimblett has good top pressure and submissions, and Vargas won't be ready for that approach. The fight doesn't go to decision at -270 is a good parlay piece. Pimblett isn't top-10 material, but this is a squash match. I'm picking Pimblett via second-round submission.

Fight doesn't go to decision (-270); Pimblett via submission round 2
"I do think he runs through Vargas on the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Paul picks Paddy, arguing that Vargas is old and has poor grappling and takedown defense. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference, and that even if it stays standing, Paddy has better volume and cardio. He acknowledges the price is high but thinks Paddy wins.

"i gotta go with patty"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett but thinks the odds (-400) are too high; he should be around -200. He predicts a first-round submission via rear-naked choke after a hip toss. He acknowledges Vargas is a solid prospect and notes Pimblett has been dropped before, but believes his grappling will be the difference. He expects a back-and-forth on the feet before Pimblett takes over.

first round submission, odds should be -200
"i think paddy pimlet's gonna win this fight by submission in the first round... but should he be a four to one favorite? no"
WIN vs Rong Zhu
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kazula Vargas 0 96 of 176 54% 111 of 192 0 of 1 0% 1 1 1:10
Rong Zhu 0 42 of 105 40% 49 of 114 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kazula Vargas 0 47 of 82 57% 47 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kazula Vargas 0 8 of 13 61% 23 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:10
Rong Zhu 0 2 of 7 28% 7 of 12 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:32
3 Kazula Vargas 0 41 of 81 50% 41 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 27 of 66 40% 29 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kazula Vargas 96 of 176 54% 50 of 121 29 of 34 17 of 21 94 of 174 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 42 of 105 40% 40 of 101 2 of 4 0 of 0 40 of 100 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kazula Vargas 47 of 82 57% 17 of 47 18 of 21 12 of 14 47 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 13 of 32 40% 11 of 29 2 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kazula Vargas 8 of 13 61% 3 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Kazula Vargas 41 of 81 50% 30 of 66 9 of 11 2 of 4 41 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 27 of 66 40% 27 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0 26 of 63 0 of 0 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by second-round knockout. He believes Rong Zhu is a much more technical striker with harder hits, and that Vargas is wild and low-output. He also notes Rong Zhu has good ground and pound if he takes Vargas down. He expects a finish because both fighters have high finish rates.

Rong Zhu by KO in round 2
"i'm gonna take wrong zoo to win this fight i'm going to say he wins by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Cody leans toward Zhu, noting his youth and striking. He acknowledges Vargas's wrestling but thinks Zhu's aggression and cardio will be factors. He is not confident due to the lack of tape on Zhu and the -255 price. He passes on betting.

"i think this kid's gonna outlast him i think this kid's gonna last him the strike is gonna be a little bit better he's aggressive he's got a good gasoline"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel picks Rong Zhu, believing he is the best Chinese prospect on the card and that Kazula Vargas is not UFC caliber. He notes Zhu's length and aggression, and expects him to land better shots. He is not sure about the -250 line but still picks Zhu to win.

"i'm gonna pick him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

I think Rong Zhu has the most potential among the Chinese debutants. He's well-rounded with solid grappling and striking, and he's only 21 with 20 pro fights. Vargas is durable but limited; he's been finished only by Jose Caceres. I expect the fight to stay standing and Zhu to outpoint him, possibly finishing late. The prop I like is Zhu by KO at +135, but I'm not investing serious money due to the unknowns.

Zhu by KO +135
"i think that we'll get wrong uh having the upper hand pretty much at all times in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kazula Vargas

Paul picks Vargas as a dog, citing Zhu's takedown defense issues and Vargas's wrestling. He notes Zhu's youth and potential but thinks Vargas can exploit the grappling gap. He likes the plus money and thinks the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He also mentions that Zhu is on the card because of the Chinese market.

"i took a shot on the duck and i don't hate it you know what i wouldn't hate it either it's plus 215 it's a dog shot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu by TKO in the second round. He is impressed by Zhu's highlight reel and activity, noting he has a 10-fight win streak and disguises his wins among lesser competition. He thinks Vargas is older and not as good, and that Zhu will finish him via ground and pound after Vargas survives a bit.

TKO in second round
"i'm going with wrong zhu"
LOSS vs Brok Weaver
DQ (illegal knee) R1 4:02 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brok Weaver 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kazula Vargas 0 15 of 29 51% 50 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brok Weaver 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kazula Vargas 0 15 of 29 51% 50 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brok Weaver 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1
Kazula Vargas 15 of 29 51% 6 of 14 5 of 10 4 of 5 9 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brok Weaver 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1
Kazula Vargas 15 of 29 51% 6 of 14 5 of 10 4 of 5 9 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Brok Weaver

Daniel Levi picks Brok Weaver to win, but thinks the fight will be closer than the line indicates. He notes Weaver's volume striking and wrestling advantage, but also Vargas's knockout power. He expects Weaver to mix in takedowns and win by decision or submission, but warns that Vargas could land a knockdown.

decision or submission, possibly ground-and-pound TKO
"I'm a pig Brock Weaver for a win but I do think the fight plays out closer than the line indicates"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 20 of 42 47% 59 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:18
Kazula Vargas 0 17 of 39 43% 88 of 130 3 of 4 75% 0 0 12:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex da Silva Coelho 0 8 of 12 66% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:18
Kazula Vargas 0 3 of 6 50% 16 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
2 Alex da Silva Coelho 0 6 of 13 46% 27 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kazula Vargas 0 9 of 17 52% 41 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:14
3 Alex da Silva Coelho 0 6 of 17 35% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kazula Vargas 0 5 of 16 31% 31 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex da Silva Coelho 20 of 42 47% 16 of 37 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 34 0 of 0 7 of 8
Kazula Vargas 17 of 39 43% 14 of 35 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 28 1 of 1 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex da Silva Coelho 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 7
Kazula Vargas 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Alex da Silva Coelho 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kazula Vargas 9 of 17 52% 8 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 7
3 Alex da Silva Coelho 6 of 17 35% 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kazula Vargas 5 of 16 31% 3 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1