Career Averages - Rogério Bontorin
Career Averages - Raulian Paiva
Rogério Bontorin - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 40 of 132 | 30% | 81 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 39 of 71 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 7:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 9 of 50 | 18% | 18 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 10 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 19 of 59 | 32% | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 19 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 40 of 132 | 30% | 21 of 96 | 15 of 25 | 4 of 11 | 28 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 28 of 58 | 48% | 16 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 9 of 50 | 18% | 3 of 30 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 7 | 7 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 12 of 23 | 52% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 19 of 59 | 32% | 11 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 |
Angelo picks Royval but worries about his wildness leading to a submission loss. He notes Royval is the better striker and more well-rounded, while Bontorin is the better grappler with more power. He placed a prop bet on Bontorin 'wins inside distance or decision no action' at +165, meaning if Bontorin loses a decision he gets a refund.
Big Brady highlights Royval's striking volume and pace as key advantages, noting Bontorin has low output and poor striking defense. He believes Royval's cardio will be decisive, especially since Bontorin struggles with weight cuts and has slowed down in the past. He predicts Royval will finish Bontorin by knockout in the second or third round after Bontorin fades.
Cody picks Royval, emphasizing his furious pace, crafty grappling, and ability to recover from adversity. He notes Bontorin's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He expects Royval to win by submission or TKO as Bontorin gasses. He calls it a potential fight of the night.
Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval to outwork Bontorin. He notes that Bontorin cuts massive weight and tends to fatigue, while Royval pushes a relentless pace. Levi acknowledges Bontorin's explosiveness and black belt jiu-jitsu but believes Royval's scrambling and get-ups will neutralize takedowns. He also mentions Royval's chin and durability, though he has defensive flaws. Levi considers the line accurate and sees no value on either side, but picks Royval to win.
The host is high on Brandon Royval's chaotic style and pressure, believing he will overwhelm Bontorin, especially given Bontorin's difficult weight cut to 125 lbs. He expects Royval to drag Bontorin into deep waters, wearing him down with forward pressure and activity. The host sees a finish likely in the second or third round via TKO as Bontorin fades. He notes Bontorin's BJJ is a threat but thinks Royval's chaos and cardio will prevail.
Paul picks Royval, praising his scrambling, submission threats off his back, and superior striking. He notes Bontorin has good BJJ but fades in scrambles and has cardio issues. He expects Royval's pace to overwhelm Bontorin, leading to a finish inside two and a half rounds. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds is juiced but still likely.
The MMA Guru picks Bontorin as one of his bigger underdogs on the card. He highlights Royval's habit of turning his back and giving up rear-naked chokes, as seen against Pantoja and Moreno. Bontorin has strong grappling and submission skills, and he was dominating Kai Kara-France before getting caught. He also notes that Bontorin may come in heavier if he misses weight. He predicts a scrappy first round where Royval may have success, but then Bontorin will jump on a standing rear-naked choke in the second round after Royval gives up his back again.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 113 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 72 of 124 | 58% | 89 of 143 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 62 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 48 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 65 of 135 | 48% | 38 of 104 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 57 of 125 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 72 of 124 | 58% | 57 of 103 | 4 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 57 of 107 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 22 of 46 | 47% | 13 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 29 of 58 | 50% | 17 of 44 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 52 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 21 of 45 | 46% | 16 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 19 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 31 of 46 | 67% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two flyweights with a majority of their respective wins by submission in Schnell (15-5, 5-3 UFC) and Bontorin (16-3, 1 NC; 2-2 UFC) will meet not at 125 pounds or even 135, but 137 after Bontorin missed weight. This catchweight contest draws officiating from referee Kerry Hatley, and Schnell is fired up in front of his home crowd and offers a glove touch to the heavier man. Schnell reaches out early with a long jab, and Bontorin circles along the outside without throwing anything for 40 seconds. On the other hand, Schnell kicks the body and flicks out a few jabs, and he kicks the lead leg as Bontorin comes forward. The Brazilian takes a one-two across the forward bow, and he loads up but misses with an overhand right in response. Schnell bears down with a leg kick, and Bontorin replies in kind. Both men are cautious on their approaches, with Schnell picking at him before getting cracked with a left hand. Schnell fights his way out with a few looping punches, and he backs away before resetting to pressure Bontorin. The Brazilian loads up with a left hook that Schnell walks through, and Schnell takes a right hand that gets his attention too. Bontorin primarily throws single power punches, but they are landing as Schnell snaps out with jabs. A short left hand makes Bontorin stumble, and he gets his balance to chop down the calf and nearly topple Schnell over. When Schnell gets his bearings, Bontorin greets him with a big left hand. Both men land at the end of huge left hands, and Bontorin smashes his fists into Schnell’s face to no appreciable effect. Schnell gives it right back to him, only for Schnell to absorb a hacking calf kick. Schnell reaches out with a high kick that is nearly caught, and he ducks out of the way like a matador to a charging Bontorin bull. One last head kick from Schnell gets blocked before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Round 2
The flyweights-turned-bantamweights touch gloves, and Bontorin nails him with a right hand coming in. Schnell connects with a leg kick, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a heavier one. Schnell chains a left jab into a short combination, and his jab starts and ends most of his flurries. Bontorin continues to load up, and Schnell ducks a strike to target the body with a thudding right hand. Bontorin smashes his shin into Schnell’s calf, and Schnell is partly compromised but is not showing it as he continues to throw hands. Schnell absorbs a left hand on the chin to pay him back, and both men are largely headhunting with the occasional head kick. Schnell darts out of the way when a soaring strike comes at him, and Schnell peppers Bontorin with several strikes. Bontorin nearly falls over throwing a big punch, and Schnell greets him with a short salvo ending with a body kick. As Bontorin lulls into a slow pattern of throwing bombs, he catches Schnell with a left hand and sends him reeling. Schnell has to gather himself as “Danger” finds himself in grave danger while Bontorin comes at him. Schnell fights his way out of a bad situation with his hands, and he circles out after absorbing some more strikes. Schnell walks through a knee on the chin to throw big hands, and Bontorin winds up and fires back right to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Round 3
The two men start out throwing right out of the gate, with a heavy leg kick for Bontorin eaten and responded to by Schnell with a right hand. The pace lulls until the two crash into one another, but they are largely shadowboxing from afar and ducking the other’s strikes. Schnell ignores a leg kick, fires off a left hook, and switches his stances for a second after the kick. Bontorin whiffs with a looping left, and Schnell jabs out to the head and body as he keeps his safe range. The crowd turns on the two as the action has slowed significantly, with neither committing to much. Bontorin charges in, seemingly in response to the booing, and he clips Schnell with a big left. The American backpedals, recovers, and rocks Bontorin coming towards him. Schnell jabs, ducks and weaves, and Bontorin ignores it and pours it on with a wild flurry of power punches. One huge shot dislodges Schnell’s mouthpiece, and Bontorin ducks down to take him down with a double instead of standing and trading as Schnell was firing back. Bontorin sits up to elbow a mouthpiece-less Schnell on the jaw, and the Brazilian works him over with ground-and-pound. Schnell tries to kick off, and he throws his legs up to threaten with a triangle choke, but Bontorin is on top of him in side control now. The crowd begins changing “F--- Jake Paul” for some reason, and Bontorin lays into Schnell with elbows and punches as Schnell still does not have his gumshield. Schnell rolls to his knees and Bontorin pounds on him, and a few final strikes for the Brazilian punctuate the last round that was very close until Round 3.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin (30-27 Bontorin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin (30-27 Bontorin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin (30-27 Bontorin)
The Official Result
Rogerio Bontorin def. Matt Schnell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Schnell is better everywhere: striking, grappling, and submissions. Bontorin is coming off a knockout loss just two months ago, which is too soon. Schnell has good output and can win by knockout or submission. I like the under or fight doesn't go to distance more than the moneyline.
Cody picks Bontorin as an underdog. He believes Bontorin's physical strength and grappling will be the difference. Cody notes that Schnell has a weak chin and is not physically strong, and Bontorin can close the distance, clinch, and take the fight to the ground. He expects Bontorin to win by controlling the fight on the mat.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Schnell, citing his well-rounded game, volume, and point-fighting style. He notes Bontorin's recent knockout loss to Kai Kara-France and questions his recovery. Levi thinks Schnell can keep distance, jab, and make Bontorin gas out. He warns that Schnell's chin is a concern but believes he can outwork Bontorin for a decision win.
The host picks Schnell, trusting his takedown defense and expecting the fight to stay on the feet where he has the advantage in boxing and combinations. He notes Schnell's durability concerns but thinks he can outpoint Bontorin. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges Bontorin's jiu-jitsu is a threat.
Paul picks Schnell, citing his longer, cleaner striking and submission skills. He notes that Bontorin struggles to make 125 and is moving up to 135. Paul believes Schnell's striking advantage and ability to fight from the outside will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Rogério Bontorin, citing Schnell's slick jiu-jitsu and submission game. He believes Bontorin will win the first round with grappling but will slow down, allowing Schnell to take over in rounds two and three with striking. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Schnell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 27 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 27 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 13 of 22 | 59% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 13 of 22 | 59% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France, citing his striking advantage and ability to scramble if taken down. He notes Bontorin's striking is underwhelming and that Kara-France's 90% takedown defense is backed by good scrambling. He predicts a decision win but mentions he would bet Kara-France if he gets plus money.
Daniel picks Rogério Bontorin to win a decision, citing his toughness, wrestling, and ability to mix in takedowns. He dismisses Bontorin's loss to Ray Borg due to weight miss and elevation, and believes Bontorin is the better grappler and will break Kara-France down the stretch.
Kara-France has speed and better stand-up, with decent takedown defense. Bontorin slows down in later rounds. The host thinks Kara-France will win by decision, but is not highly confident due to Kara-France's past losses to chaotic fighters.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Kara-France's 90% takedown defense and reach advantage, and believes Bontorin will get frustrated and rush in, getting caught. He notes Bontorin slows down and has been cut before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Borg | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 35 of 45 | 77% | 60 of 74 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 11:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ray Borg | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 19 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 13 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 | |
| 2 | Ray Borg | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 17 of 18 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 | |
| 3 | Ray Borg | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 30 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Borg | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 35 of 45 | 77% | 35 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 12 of 16 | 21 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ray Borg | 7 of 14 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Ray Borg | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 10 of 11 | 90% | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 | |
| 3 | Ray Borg | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 17 of 21 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 10 |
Daniel Levi picks Rogério Bontorin for the upset due to his power and strength. He believes Bontorin will win the first two rounds with harder shots, and that Borg may struggle to take him down. He notes Bontorin's heart and jiu-jitsu pedigree, but is not overly confident because Borg could return to his old form.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 58 of 98 | 59% | 66 of 107 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 52 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 1:59 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 22 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 58 of 98 | 59% | 21 of 57 | 35 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 78 | 14 of 16 | 3 of 4 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 40 of 77 | 51% | 27 of 62 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 33 of 70 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 14 of 24 | 58% | 4 of 13 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 18 of 32 | 56% | 9 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 26 of 42 | 61% | 8 of 21 | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 15 of 29 | 51% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Raulian Paiva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 63 of 142 | 44% | 63 of 142 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 68 of 127 | 53% | 82 of 143 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 39 of 76 | 51% | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 16 of 50 | 32% | 16 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 33 of 59 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 63 of 142 | 44% | 51 of 120 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 62 of 140 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 68 of 127 | 53% | 56 of 113 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 66 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 39 of 76 | 51% | 31 of 63 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 7 of 14 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 16 of 50 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 30 of 56 | 53% | 25 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.
Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.
Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.
Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.
The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 11 of 47 | 23% | 2 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 39 of 62 | 62% | 28 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 11 of 47 | 23% | 2 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 39 of 62 | 62% | 28 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card of UFC 269 is an unranked bantamweight pairing between ex-flyweight Paiva (21-3, 3-2 UFC) and the fluorescently haired O’Malley (14-1, 6-1 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this one is referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch as they would rather introduce themselves to one another with their fists. O’Malley comes out switching his stances back and forth, and Paiva swings and misses at his elusive foe. Paiva kicks low, and he catches a front kick to the body so he can close in and get his hands on the American. O’Malley darts out of the way, and he fakes with a jab only to have his leg kicked. O’Malley stomp-kicks his foe’s knee, and he sticks out a single jab that split the guard. The ball of O’Malley’s foot clatters square into Paiva’s groin, and we draw a pause for a few seconds. Paiva is set to resume before long, and O’Malley backs away and starts lining jabs up. Paiva scores a quick calf kick that makes O’Malley changes stances, and he completes a short combination with an overhand right. O’Malley gathers himself and flicks his jabs out a few more times, keeping his range from a safe distance while Paiva gives chase. A sniper shot of a left hand snaps Paiva’s head back, but it is one-and-done as Paiva keeps walking him down. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and as chants rain down for O’Malley, Paiva chips at his calf. O’Malley gets off a push kick to the midsection, only for Paiva to hack at his lead leg a few more times. “Sugar” strings together a clean combination that surprises Paiva and may have marked his nose up. Paiva recommits to the low calf kick, and he reaches out with the end of a right hook to glance off O’Malley’s jaw. They land strikes at the same time and appear no worse for wear, and O’Malley follows it up with a blistering right hand. Paiva leans back into the wall, and O’Malley tees off on him against the wire as Paiva is barely able to stay on his feet. Paiva never gets a chance to recover, as O’Malley rips the body and then smashes Paiva in the face with sharp, accurate strikes until Paiva falls over. The Brazilian springs back up, but he is still on rubber legs, and O’Malley continues to work him over. A left to the body and a right to the head spell the beginning of the end for Paiva, as O’Malley swarms him with a vigorous crescendo of punches until Paiva's knees give out and Herzog steps in. This is an impressive performance for a kid who has star power for days. In his post-fight interview, O'Malley admits that he was very close to withdrawing from the fight due to a serious rib injury, but he made it to fight night and put on a show.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Raulian Paiva R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley winning by knockout. He highlights O'Malley's massive striking advantage, with high volume and accuracy, while Paiva has poor striking defense and gets hit more than he lands. Paiva rarely shoots takedowns and has low takedown accuracy, so O'Malley should be able to keep the fight standing. Brady is unimpressed with Paiva's competition and believes O'Malley will finish him.
Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He praises O'Malley's striking diversity and volume but questions his defensive and mental toughness when facing adversity. Levi notes Paiva's heart and durability, referencing his comeback win over Kyler Phillips. He worries about O'Malley's compromised leg (from the Chito fight) and Paiva's ability to capitalize if O'Malley gets hurt. Levi says he might take a half-unit shot on Paiva but ultimately picks O'Malley.
O'Malley has the striking advantage and power to finish, but Paiva is durable and has a path via takedowns. However, Paiva's striking defense is suspect, and O'Malley will counter effectively. The under 2.5 rounds is a good bet, as O'Malley likely gets a first-round KO.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by second-round TKO via a spinning back kick to the body. He believes O'Malley's reach, height, and striking advantage will be too much for Paiva. He notes O'Malley's underrated ground game and training with Kyla Phillips, who recently fought Paiva. He predicts O'Malley will hurt Paiva early and finish him with body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 74 of 132 | 56% | 95 of 155 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 3:02 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 72 of 147 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 1 | 45 of 70 | 64% | 61 of 86 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:01 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 30 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 74 of 132 | 56% | 62 of 115 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 95 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 28 |
| Kyler Phillips | 51 of 117 | 43% | 37 of 96 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 102 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 45 of 70 | 64% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 28 |
| Kyler Phillips | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 13 of 28 | 46% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 23 of 47 | 48% | 17 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 34 | 47% | 12 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 15 of 38 | 39% | 11 of 30 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two top-flight teams will wage a proxy battle as the MMA Lab’s Phillips (9-1, 3-0 UFC) faces ex-flyweight and Team Alpha Male rep Paiva (20-3, 2-2 UFC) at bantamweight. The co-main event will tolerate zero nonsense as it draws oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and the gloves are touched to clock in this fight. Paiva is quick on the draw, with a few crisp punches when Phillips tries to close the distance. Phillips opens up with kicks, and he cracks the Brazilian with a right hand. Phillips opens up with a flying knee, and when he lands, he spins with a back fist that glances off the target. Paiva appears to have recovered from the big blow and partial knockdown to throw at Phillips, but “The Matrix” enters the matrix as he dodges several strikes and ducks down to clash heads with his advancing opponent. Phillips kicks the body, and his leg is caught and he takes two right hands and succumbs to a takedown from the position. When Phillips walks up the fence, he is able to spin around and spin Paiva around with a kimura. Phillips lifts his foe up in the air and slams him down like he was carrying groceries, and he lets Paiva up so that he can land a flashy kick to the body. Paiva appears unflustered and he walks Phillips down, but he eats a fierce right hand that hurts him. Another wobbles Paiva, who shoots in for a single and is stuffed. Phillips makes him pay with several punches, until the Brazilian bails on it and stands up. Phillips kicks him in the head, and spins around with a heel kick that clacks on the side of Paiva’s head. Paiva allows him to land the strike so that Phillips falls to the ground without any balance, and he climbs into Phillips’ guard to slow things down. Paiva postures up and lands a few long punches, but Phillips is quick to reverse him and put Paiva on his back. Phillips takes side control, and slices over to mount but is pulled back to half guard in an exchange. Paiva eats an elbow, scrambles back to his knees, takes another elbow, and stands back up. When Paiva stands back up, Phillips rocks him with another brutal right hand, and the Brazilian pushes for a desperation takedown. Paiva can barely stand, and Phillips cracks him with another right hand. A nasty elbow cracks the Brazilian on the jaw, and he collapses in a heap. The fight not quite over, Phillips dives in to finish the job. He continues to club Paiva with everything he has, and Paiva miraculously survives to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Round 2
The gloves are touched to begin the round, and Paiva comes out of his corner swinging for the bleachers. Phillips spins with a wheel kick to try to throw things off, and Paiva drops down to pursue a takedown. As soon as Phillips drops to a knee, he rolls for a leglock, and Paiva abandons the position before anything gets set up. Both men get back to their feet, and Phillips is ready with pep in his step and a blistering elbow square on the chin. Paiva takes it flush and fires back with a straight right hand, knocking Phillips off of his feet. Paiva sees that Phillips may be hurt and a little gassed, and he chases Phillips around the cage and unloads a fury at him. Paiva scores a clean uppercut that stings Phillips badly, and even though he may be bloodied and has taken some damage, he appears the fresher man and ignores a flying knee when Phillips tries to recover. Paiva pursues a takedown, and when Phillips fights it off, the latter takes a very deep breath before the midpoint of the round. Phillips dives forward for a tackle takedown, landing it and putting the Brazilian on his back. Paiva scoots his way to the fence, and he calmly stands back up while Phillips tries to keep him down. Paiva is able to break free, and he lands a one-two as Phillips is tiring fast. Paiva ducks a punch and grabs a body lock to try to plant “The Matrix” on the ground, but Phillips stops it and lands a spinning back elbow. When Paiva looks to do some damage with a right hand, Phillips evades it, grabs the back and drags Paiva down to the ground. Phillips takes back control and fishes for a choke, but Paiva rolls through to his knees. Phillips flattens Paiva out to set up a choke, and Paiva turns and nearly gives up mount. Phillips turns to try to get a better position, and he is forced to stand up. Phillips smashes Paiva in the face with a huge right hand, and Paiva eats it like an acai bowl and blasts Phillips back with one of his own. The spent fighters end the round pressed against the wall.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Round 3
The bantamweight battle well worth the price of admission, both men touch gloves to begin the last round. Whose cardio is better is anyone’s guess. Paiva starts the dance with a few jabs, and Phillips comes back at him with a long right hand and a possible takedown entry. Paiva stuffs it without much effort and connects with a right hand that wobbles Phillips. Paiva opens up with a right and a left as Phillips bears down on him to take him down, stopping the attempt before it gets too far. Phillips shrugs off a right hand on the jaw to duck down low for a single, and both men fall to the ground with neither in an advantageous position. Phillips ducks face-first into an uppercut, and Paiva lays into him with a few punches but cannot hurt him. Phillips sells out with a huge right hand, and the two fighters are so wiped out, they are slipping all over the cage and wobbling after every punch. Phillips escapes a few strikes but takes some more when Paiva gives chase, and Phillips attacks with a spinning kick that is well short of the mark. Phillips goes all-in for a double leg takedown, scooping the Brazilian’s legs out beneath him bot not able to ground him for long. Paiva scores a right hand only to get pursued with another takedown, and Paiva grits it out and turns him around to take him down. Phillips defends with his legs to set up a reversal, but he does not have the energy to land it and instead is stuck on his back while Paiva is on top of him. The Brazilian holds on tight, not wanting “The Matrix” to get off any more wild strikes on his feet, and he gets off some ground-and-pound to stay busy. Paiva in half guard continues to control his opponent and land effective if not damaging punches. At the 10-second clapper, Phillips explodes to his feet and is ready to brawl. Phillips smashes his fist into the granite chin of Paiva, and Paiva throws everything he has back at his foe. One final flurry ends the fight, and this one could be close – close enough to be dead even, depending on how the judges see the rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
The Official Result
Raulian Paiva def. Kyler Phillips via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
Angelo picks Raulian Paiva because he thinks Paiva is a real threat on the ground with jiu-jitsu and is a good striker. He notes that Kyler Phillips has wrestling and fight IQ, but Paiva could cause problems. He is not confident and is not betting on this fight. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a decision.
Big Brady is very high on Kyler Phillips, especially after his impressive win over Song Yadong. He notes Paiva is moving up from 125 lbs and has poor striking defense (51%) and a negative striking differential. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns (3 per 15 min, 63% accuracy) and win a convincing decision, as Paiva has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. He considers this a step down in competition for Phillips.
Cody picks Phillips, calling him a legitimate top ten guy. He praises Phillips' fight IQ, striking, and wrestling, noting his performance against Song Yadong. He thinks Paiva's move up to 135 removes his size advantage and that Phillips is on a different level. He considers Phillips a safe parlay piece.
Daniel Levi picks Kyler Phillips to win, acknowledging Paiva's toughness but believing Phillips is too clean and will edge a decision. He notes that Paiva is dangerous with nothing to lose, but Phillips' footwork and technique are superior. Levi expects a close fight but sees Phillips' skill set prevailing, though he wouldn't play the -300 line against Paiva.
Jacob picks Kyler Phillips as his lock of the week, calling him the 'king of lock of the weeks.' He praises Phillips' fight IQ and wrestling, noting that he gets takedowns when needed. He believes Phillips will dominate with wrestling and timely takedowns. He is very confident despite the short-notice opponent moving up in weight.
The host leans toward Raulian Paiva as a dog, noting his striking and Muay Thai. He believes Paiva's move to 135 pounds will benefit his cardio and durability. He thinks the line is too wide and Paiva can make it a close fight. He likes Paiva by decision at +455 and the moneyline at +240.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Paiva's biggest advantage was his size at 125, which is gone at 135. He notes Paiva hasn't looked ultra impressive and arguably lost to Zalgus. He sees Phillips as a surgeon and expects him to win on the feet or ground.
The Guru confidently picks Phillips, citing his size advantage at bantamweight, chain takedown ability, and mixing strikes with takedowns. He notes Paiva is a short-notice replacement and likely views this as a free payday. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke submission, as Paiva has been outgrappled before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 52 of 121 | 42% | 56 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 66 of 119 | 55% | 73 of 126 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 32 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 52 of 121 | 42% | 14 of 71 | 22 of 31 | 16 of 19 | 51 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 66 of 119 | 55% | 19 of 61 | 17 of 25 | 30 of 33 | 64 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 21 of 47 | 44% | 6 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 19 of 41 | 46% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 7 of 20 | 9 of 13 | 11 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 15 of 34 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 20 of 34 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.
Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.
Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 45 of 124 | 36% | 45 of 124 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 1 | 54 of 126 | 42% | 67 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 62 | 30% | 31 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 23 of 67 | 34% | 23 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 1 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 36 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 45 of 124 | 36% | 21 of 91 | 15 of 24 | 9 of 9 | 44 of 122 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 54 of 126 | 42% | 33 of 98 | 10 of 13 | 11 of 15 | 45 of 116 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 22 of 57 | 38% | 12 of 42 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 19 of 62 | 30% | 14 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 23 of 67 | 34% | 9 of 49 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 35 of 64 | 54% | 19 of 46 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 | 28 of 57 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Daniel Levi picks Raulian Paiva to win, likely by finish. He notes Paiva's height, reach, durability, and scrambling ability, while De La Rosa is smaller and makes mistakes in boxing. He believes Paiva is more ferocious and will overwhelm De La Rosa with left hooks and knees.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 58 of 168 | 34% | 60 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 67 of 184 | 36% | 71 of 188 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 21 of 58 | 36% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 29 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 25 of 71 | 35% | 25 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 26 of 77 | 33% | 26 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 58 of 168 | 34% | 33 of 134 | 17 of 24 | 8 of 10 | 55 of 164 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Raulian Paiva | 67 of 184 | 36% | 36 of 140 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 61 of 170 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 12 of 39 | 30% | 6 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 21 of 58 | 36% | 14 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Raulian Paiva | 25 of 68 | 36% | 13 of 49 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 10 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 25 of 71 | 35% | 13 of 53 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 26 of 77 | 33% | 15 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
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