UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Antonina Shevchenko
3.86 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.93 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lucie Pudilová
3.6 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
4.07 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.7 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Antonina Shevchenko - Fight History
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 55 of 117 47% 81 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:50
Cortney Casey 0 33 of 86 38% 80 of 146 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 35 45% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 20 60% 35 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 15 of 25 60% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 55 of 117 47% 26 of 73 15 of 26 14 of 18 54 of 115 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 33 of 86 38% 17 of 52 2 of 7 14 of 27 28 of 78 3 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 35 45% 6 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 6 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 20 60% 3 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 14 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 24 of 57 42% 9 of 34 6 of 11 9 of 12 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 37 24% 5 of 23 0 of 3 4 of 11 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 15 of 25 60% 11 of 18 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 29 41% 9 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).
"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.
"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.
"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win
"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 40 of 63 63% 58 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Antonina Shevchenko 0 52 of 110 47% 128 of 209 3 of 8 37% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 29 of 41 70% 38 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 33 27% 26 of 52 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:19
2 Casey O'Neill 0 11 of 22 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Antonina Shevchenko 0 43 of 77 55% 102 of 157 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 40 of 63 63% 32 of 55 8 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 45 8 of 8 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 52 of 110 47% 46 of 101 4 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 3 37 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 29 of 41 70% 23 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 33 27% 5 of 27 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 4
2 Casey O'Neill 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Antonina Shevchenko 43 of 77 55% 41 of 74 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 28 0 of 1 35 of 48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

considering moneyline bet at -210
"i think she's almost a guaranteed win here so i may do a money line bet on her at minus 210"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

O'Neill by decision
"i'll go with casey o'neil here to win i'll go for her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Inside the distance at +140
"casey o'neill is the pick clearly um i think her game her game plan her style is just the kryptonite to everything that shivchenko really wants to do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

"i'm not lying when i say i'm going to be nervous for the entire duration this fight stays standing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Shevchenko by KO +800
"I bet chef check on the money line i also bet her caleb ko on plus 800"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

Inside the distance at +140
"i think shivchenko rolls here um it may take a couple rounds but i think she probably gets her out of there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

O'Neill by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2 or 3
"i'm going casey o'neil here i think i'm going to go with casey o'neill by re-naked choke in the second round"
LOSS vs Andrea Lee
Submission (triangle armbar) R2 4:52 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 45 of 62 72% 88 of 108 3 of 3 100% 3 0 2:11
Antonina Shevchenko 0 23 of 41 56% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 28 of 44 63% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Antonina Shevchenko 0 22 of 39 56% 34 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 17 of 18 94% 45 of 47 2 of 2 100% 3 0 0:40
Antonina Shevchenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 45 of 62 72% 32 of 43 11 of 15 2 of 4 19 of 35 6 of 6 20 of 21
Antonina Shevchenko 23 of 41 56% 13 of 30 8 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 28 of 44 63% 15 of 25 11 of 15 2 of 4 18 of 34 6 of 6 4 of 4
Antonina Shevchenko 22 of 39 56% 13 of 29 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 17 of 18 94% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 17
Antonina Shevchenko 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).
"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision
"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"
TKO (punches) R2 4:33 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 39 of 57 68% 94 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 7:39
Ariane da Silva 0 15 of 26 57% 25 of 36 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 10 of 12 83% 37 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:48
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 14 71% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 29 of 45 64% 57 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:51
Ariane da Silva 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 39 of 57 68% 32 of 50 4 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 12 5 of 6 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 15 of 26 57% 7 of 15 5 of 6 3 of 5 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 10 of 12 83% 4 of 6 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 5 of 6 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 29 of 45 64% 28 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.

would not bet this fight
"i'm going to take chefchenko i think it could play out close as a lot of women's fights do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.

"i am actually gonna pick uh my girl queen of violent slipski to come in here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.

"I do like Chef Cho again I think she's cleaner on the feet uh she might have the Jiu-Jitsu Advantage as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.

"i'm definitely going to be going with antonina chefchenko to get the job done over ariana lipsky by unanimous decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:20 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 23 69% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:54
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 16 37% 12 of 24 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 21 76% 34 of 39 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:37
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:40
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Lucie Pudilová 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 23 69% 3 of 6 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 3 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 8 5 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 21 76% 3 of 4 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 1
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 33 of 79 41% 105 of 162 5 of 6 83% 0 2 9:00
Antonina Shevchenko 0 64 of 116 55% 87 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 40 27% 30 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Antonina Shevchenko 0 26 of 46 56% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 14 of 21 66% 44 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 8 of 18 44% 31 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 2 3:15
Antonina Shevchenko 0 21 of 36 58% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 33 of 79 41% 29 of 73 3 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 60 3 of 4 12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko 64 of 116 55% 50 of 101 12 of 13 2 of 2 49 of 98 10 of 11 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 40 27% 8 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
Antonina Shevchenko 26 of 46 56% 23 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 14 of 21 66% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 34 50% 15 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5
3 Roxanne Modafferi 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Antonina Shevchenko 21 of 36 58% 12 of 26 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2
WIN vs Ji Yeon Kim
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Nov 30, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 33 of 128 25% 85 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ji Yeon Kim 0 66 of 134 49% 87 of 167 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 50 18% 16 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Ji Yeon Kim 0 15 of 35 42% 19 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 46 26% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Ji Yeon Kim 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 32 37% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ji Yeon Kim 0 27 of 46 58% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 33 of 128 25% 18 of 113 5 of 5 10 of 10 26 of 116 7 of 12 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 66 of 134 49% 41 of 101 18 of 26 7 of 7 46 of 106 14 of 19 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 50 18% 3 of 44 2 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 15 of 35 42% 10 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 46 26% 8 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 24 of 53 45% 16 of 41 6 of 10 2 of 2 19 of 45 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 32 37% 7 of 27 1 of 1 4 of 4 10 of 25 2 of 7 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 27 of 46 58% 15 of 30 8 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 28 7 of 9 6 of 9
Lucie Pudilová - Fight History
LOSS vs Luana Carolina
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 94 of 167 56% 114 of 199 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Lucie Pudilová 0 43 of 114 37% 62 of 145 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 33 of 51 64% 38 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 32 18% 14 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
2 Luana Carolina 0 24 of 50 48% 28 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lucie Pudilová 0 22 of 43 51% 27 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
3 Luana Carolina 0 37 of 66 56% 48 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 15 of 39 38% 21 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 94 of 167 56% 45 of 101 23 of 35 26 of 31 73 of 142 21 of 25 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 43 of 114 37% 25 of 86 16 of 23 2 of 5 27 of 93 16 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 33 of 51 64% 14 of 29 6 of 9 13 of 13 25 of 41 8 of 10 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 32 18% 5 of 25 1 of 4 0 of 3 5 of 29 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luana Carolina 24 of 50 48% 13 of 36 7 of 9 4 of 5 16 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 22 of 43 51% 12 of 33 10 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 28 13 of 15 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 37 of 66 56% 18 of 36 10 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 60 5 of 6 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 15 of 39 38% 8 of 28 5 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo is surprised that Luana Carolina is a plus-money underdog, as he believes she is the better striker with solid takedown defense and clinch work. He notes that Lucie Pudilová has poor takedown defense and is not the better wrestler or striker. He has placed a half-unit bet on Luana at plus money, expecting the line to move.

half unit bet at plus money
"Lanna Carolina is going to be the pick she's a plus money Underdog and I have a half a unit bet on her at plus money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Cody picks Carolina, highlighting her better competition, volume, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Pudilová's poor takedown accuracy and that she struggles when taken down. He thinks Carolina will win with damage in the clinch and on the ground, and that judges will favor her output.

"She's the player for me this week."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Carolina, citing Pudilová's poor record with judges and her increased hesitancy. He notes Carolina's Muay Thai background and recent submission win. Vreeland expects a kickboxing match that goes to decision, with Carolina getting the nod.

"I see it going all three and uh Lana is going to get the decision here the judges hate uh the judges AB absolutely hate Lucia pudova"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Pudilová is a slight underdog at +100. She has improved her grappling since her first UFC stint and can use her striking to set up takedowns, unlike Stoliarenko who pulls guard. Pudilová's aggressiveness and ability to mix in takedowns should keep Carolina uncomfortable at distance. I think Pudilová is the better overall fighter and can grind out a decision win.

"I do think that pudova is the better overall fighter and optically speaking I think she can make it look better for the judges so give me pudilova and Pila by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul agrees, saying Carolina is the pick all day. He thinks wrestling will be negated and that Carolina's striking and clinch work will be key. He was impressed with her win over Stoliarenko.

"I think it's Carolina all day to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina, calling Lucie Pudilová 'garbage'. He notes Carolina stuffed takedowns from Lupita Godinez, who has good wrestling, and believes Carolina can out-grapple or out-strike Pudilová. He compares Pudilová's win over Yanan Wu unfavorably to Carolina's similar style, and cites Carolina's size and reach advantage.

"I'm going to go with Lanna Carolina because uh Lucy pyo's garbage"
LOSS vs Ailín Pérez
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ailín Pérez 0 20 of 42 47% 41 of 67 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:09
Lucie Pudilová 0 42 of 74 56% 123 of 180 2 of 8 25% 0 0 8:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ailín Pérez 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 12 of 26 46% 48 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:49
2 Ailín Pérez 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 25 of 37 67% 66 of 100 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:26
3 Ailín Pérez 0 16 of 24 66% 36 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:09
Lucie Pudilová 0 5 of 11 45% 9 of 16 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ailín Pérez 20 of 42 47% 13 of 31 7 of 9 0 of 2 5 of 25 9 of 10 6 of 7
Lucie Pudilová 42 of 74 56% 31 of 57 5 of 7 6 of 10 12 of 27 3 of 6 27 of 41
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ailín Pérez 2 of 10 20% 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 2 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 12 of 26 46% 7 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 6 6 of 16 0 of 0 6 of 10
2 Ailín Pérez 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 25 of 37 67% 22 of 34 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 31
3 Ailín Pérez 16 of 24 66% 10 of 17 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 7 9 of 10 6 of 7
Lucie Pudilová 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Angelo is very confident in Ailín Pérez, citing her incredible cardio and wrestling pressure from her last fight where she set the bantamweight record for takedowns. He notes Lucie Pudilová can be taken down and that -150 feels like a good deal. He plans to bet on her.

Will have a moneyline bet on her
"I like aen in this spot I mean even if she's 80% of what she was in her last fight she should win this so minus 150 feels like a good deal and I will have a money on her …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Big Brady finds Perez's nickname change to 'Nurmagomedov' hilarious but thinks she earned it with 10 takedowns in her last fight. He sees Perez as a bully who will come forward, push Pudilová against the cage, and take her down repeatedly. He notes Pudilová has better striking but has struggled with takedowns and control in the past. He believes the odds flip is correct and Perez should be the favorite, winning a grinding decision.

"I think Perez goes out there and implements that wrestling heavy game plan wins a a grinding based decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Cody picks Ailín Pérez, citing her takedown volume and pressure. He notes that Pudilová has poor takedown defense and low striking volume. Pérez can grind out a decision with takedowns and control. Cody also mentions a PrizePicks play on Pérez over 2.5 takedowns.

Cody mentions a PrizePicks play on Pérez over 2.5 takedowns.
"Eileen Perez wins a a semi convincing decision Where She lays on top"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Pudilová has improved her grappling significantly since her first UFC stint, now using it offensively. She is the cleaner striker and can cut up Pérez on the feet. Even on the ground, Pudilová can throw up submissions and reverse positions. Pérez relies on strength and bullying, which may not work against a technically better grappler like Pudilová. Pudilová wins by decision.

"I'm actually going to lean with pudova to win this fight I think she batters uh Perez throughout this matchup I think she nullifies the control of Perez with her own damage and that will end up being the Difference …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Paul picks Pérez, noting her physical strength and relentless pressure. He highlights Pudilová's inability to defend takedowns and her tendency to lose decisions. Paul expects Pérez to control the fight with takedowns and cage work.

"I got to go with E Perez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

The MMA Guru picks Lucie Pudilová over Ailín Pérez, noting Pudilová's height and reach advantage as a rangier striker. He rates Pudilová's wins higher, including a close fight with Joselyne Edwards and a win over Yanan Wu, while criticizing Pérez's decision win over Ashley Evans-Smith as unimpressive. He believes Pudilová's improvement and range will be key if the fight stays standing, and doesn't see Pérez out-grappling her.

"I'm going to go with Lucy Pudilova... I think she'll have improved more, I think she's rangier taller, I reckon that's going to be a factor here if it ends up staying on the feet."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joselyne Edwards 0 56 of 114 49% 90 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:29
Lucie Pudilová 0 39 of 98 39% 74 of 138 2 of 7 28% 0 0 7:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joselyne Edwards 0 17 of 36 47% 31 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:11
Lucie Pudilová 0 8 of 27 29% 17 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:11
2 Joselyne Edwards 0 12 of 22 54% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Lucie Pudilová 0 12 of 25 48% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:19
3 Joselyne Edwards 0 27 of 56 48% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Lucie Pudilová 0 19 of 46 41% 33 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joselyne Edwards 56 of 114 49% 19 of 65 11 of 19 26 of 30 46 of 98 5 of 9 5 of 7
Lucie Pudilová 39 of 98 39% 27 of 82 9 of 10 3 of 6 21 of 67 7 of 10 11 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joselyne Edwards 17 of 36 47% 10 of 25 2 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 25 2 of 4 5 of 7
Lucie Pudilová 8 of 27 29% 5 of 22 3 of 3 0 of 2 4 of 17 2 of 2 2 of 8
2 Joselyne Edwards 12 of 22 54% 2 of 10 5 of 6 5 of 6 10 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 12 of 25 48% 10 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 13
3 Joselyne Edwards 27 of 56 48% 7 of 30 4 of 9 16 of 17 26 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 19 of 46 41% 12 of 37 5 of 6 2 of 3 15 of 39 4 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joselyne Edwards (136.5: Missed Weight) vs. Lucie Pudilova
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pudilova (-135), Edwards (+115)

Round 1
For the first time in six years to the day, the UFC is back in Kansas City, Missouri, with a Fight Night offering. In the building formerly known as the Sprint Center and now the T-Mobile Center, the promotion throws 14 fights in rapid succession at fans in the building and those watching on ESPN and ESPN+. Of note, the prelims will bring eight bouts in the span of three hours, so the pace should be higher. This presumably speedy slate of matches begins outside of normal weight categories, as Edwards (12-4, 3-2 UFC) missed weight ahead of her bantamweight bout with Pudilova (14-7, 3-5 UFC). The 137-pound catchweight affair will be overseen by referee Dwayne Bess, and there is no interest in a glove touch to start off the night. Instead, the ladies immediately begin to brawl, throwing hands in volume and tagging the other right out of the gate. One particular right hand from Edwards draws a telegraphed double-leg attempt from her opponent, and Edwards stuffs it and gets back up. Pudilova counters a leg kick with a right hand, and Edwards loads up on a pair of overhand rights in response. Pudilova scores a low kick and paws at her nose, which is already showing some damage from the few absorbed blows thus far. Pudilova surges forward and lifts Edwards off her feet to take her down to the mat, where she lands right in half guard. Pudilova controls her adversary, flattening her to the floor and not throwing much of note. A few punches to the rib cage do connect for Pudilova, who is dragged back to the guard when Edwards looks to buck her off. Pudilova is comfortable from this position as well, even with Edwards clutching both of her hands, so that she can posture up and drop down some decent ground-and-pound. Pudilova rains down hammerfists from high up until Edwards boots her off, and the Panamanian even gets off an upkick that stuns Pudilova momentarily. Instead of standing, Edwards remains on her back, and Pudilova adjusts her mouthguard and top and dives back down into the half guard. The boos begin to rain down from crowd, and this spurs Pudilova into action. Pudilova looks to pass to a dominant position, and Edwards turns to her side and slides out the back door to stand back up. Pudilova gives chase, and she swings her way into the clinch. The round closes as Edwards tries to toss her foe down.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pudilova
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pudilova
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pudilova

Round 2
Pudilova advances calmly out of her corner, watching Edwards lob inaccurate bombs at her, until she rushes forward to close up. Edwards shuts down a takedown, and she makes Pudilova pay for it with multiple leg kicks. Pudilova’s offense stalls out while Edwards pecks at her with kicks, and she barely dodges a spinning back fist in time. Edwards sinks in a few body kicks, and Pudilova takes a moment after the second one lands. Pudilova ducks a few punches to pursue a double, and she drags “La Pantera” to the mat while simultaneously turning to land in side control. Pudilova grinds her elbow on Edwards’ face as she maintains heavy top control, with chest-to-chest pressure to keep Edwards flat on her back. Bess asks Pudilova to start working, as the action lulls. Pudilova drops down a few solid elbows on the cheek, and she moves to claim mount. As she does, Edwards flips over to her knees, and Pudilova does not fall off this time. Instead, Pudilova takes her back, where she gets in both hooks and threatens immediately with a rear-naked choke. Edwards fights the hands off from the first choke try, and she attempts to slip Pudilova off of her. Pudilova softens her up with a few punches, and Edwards keeps her stuck from trying anything with a two-on-one wrist lock. Edwards turns to her back, and Pudilova follows her and gets into mount. With 10 seconds to spare, Pudilova sits up and batters Edwards with vicious elbows until the horn saves the Panama native.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pudilova
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Pudilova
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pudilova

Round 3
The last round opens up with Edwards aiming heavy kicks to the calf and big overhand rights up top. Pudilova stays composed and does not walk into anything harmful, and she flicks out a few jabs to keep Edwards honest. Pudilova shoots in from afar for a double, and she gets stood up as she pushes Edwards to the fence. Edwards slowly muscles her around, but Pudilova breaks off and separates. “La Pantera” shoots for her own takedown, and Pudilova tosses it aside and throws out a few kicks. Edwards strikes with several kicks to the thigh and upper calf, and Pudilova intercepts one with a straight left hand. Edwards punches her way into a spinning back fist, and Pudilova retreats and blocks both strikes. Edwards continues to work on the lead leg with pitter-patter kicks, and she smacks Pudilova with a clean left. “Bullet” charges for a takedown, and Edwards stands her up and kicks her in the body with a spinning kick. Edwards circles away on the outside, countering the advancing Pudilova and landing effectively. Pudilova crashes the pocket briefly with an overhand right, and Edwards is met with a knee before she swings a right hand back. Pudilova slams Edwards in the face with a knee, and she level changes to grab hold of Edwards. Edwards turns around, and Pudilova drags her to the floor. Edwards springs back up instantly, and the two remain clinched up. Pudilova misses with an elbow on the break, and Edwards tags her with two right hands. Pudilova surges forward with a few punches, and they trade short shots until the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Edwards (29-28 Pudilova)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Edwards (29-27 Pudilova)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Edwards (29-28 Pudilova)

The Official Result
Joselyne Edwards def. Lucie Pudilova via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joselyne Edwards

Angelo picks Joselyne Edwards based on her range management and volume striking. He notes that Edwards is a good kickboxer who uses range well, and her 63% takedown defense should ward off Pudilová's takedown attempts. He expects a boring fight but sees Edwards winning with volume and distance control. He is super confident in her but probably won't include her in a parlay.

over 2.5 rounds at -300 considered for parlay
"I'm liking her here for the pick her range management should keep Lucy's power away"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joselyne Edwards

Big Brady picks Joselyne Edwards as a dog, citing her striking volume and improved takedown defense. He doubts Lucie Pudilová's wrestling, which she only showed in her last fight, and doesn't trust her as a favorite. He expects Edwards to win by decision, but is not betting on the fight.

"I'm gonna take the dog here uh in Joslin Edwards I think she's going to be levels above putulova on the feet just due to the volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Cody notes Pudilová has improved her grappling and wrestling, and her aggression and volume should overwhelm Edwards. He thinks Edwards' pitter-patter striking won't be enough. He likes Pudilová by decision.

Pudilová by decision (+155); over 0.5 takedowns for Pudilová
"sign me up for Lucy poodle over by decision Foods by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Connor picks Pudilová because he likes a newly controlled fighter who relies on her reach intelligently. He notes that Pudilová has takedowns and Edwards is a bad wrestler. He acknowledges that Edwards is powerful and the fight could get chaotic, but thinks Pudilová's experience in crazy fights will help.

"I think I'm gonna go with Putalova. I like a newly controlled fighter. I like a fighter who relies on her reach in like an intelligent way, i.e. jabbing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Pudilová's improved grappling and BJJ will be key against Edwards, who struggles when taken down. Edwards relies on kicks and distance, but Pudilová is a good enough striker to close the distance and get takedowns. Pudilová's submission defense and top control should allow her to grind out a decision. She has evolved her game since returning to the UFC.

"I'm going to go with Lucy porilova here and I think she grinds this fight out on route to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Paul agrees, noting Pudilová's improved grappling and the fact that Edwards' wins are over low-level competition. He thinks Pudilová's aggression and takedowns will secure a decision.

Pudilová over 0.5 takedowns
"I think I think you would take putalova by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

The MMA Guru leans toward Lucie Pudilová, citing her improved grappling and overall development since her return to the UFC. He notes Edwards' striking volume but thinks Pudilová's X-factor of potentially using grappling could edge a close decision. He calls it a close fight and says the line is accurate.

"I will take Lucy putty lover to win this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joselyne Edwards

Zane picks Edwards because he hasn't seen Pudilová handle physical pushback well. He believes Edwards is tough and strong, and will land the bigger shots. He acknowledges that Edwards doesn't do enough work continually but thinks she'll land more damaging shots.

"I'm gonna take Edwards. I think that I have yet to see Putalova really prove that she can handle her physical pushback very well and turn that into a win."
WIN vs Wu Yanan
TKO (elbows) R2 4:04 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucie Pudilová 0 26 of 42 61% 32 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Wu Yanan 0 39 of 81 48% 51 of 96 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucie Pudilová 0 13 of 18 72% 17 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Wu Yanan 0 9 of 22 40% 16 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:19
2 Lucie Pudilová 0 13 of 24 54% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Wu Yanan 0 30 of 59 50% 35 of 66 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucie Pudilová 26 of 42 61% 7 of 18 5 of 8 14 of 16 22 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Wu Yanan 39 of 81 48% 29 of 65 5 of 7 5 of 9 14 of 50 4 of 4 21 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucie Pudilová 13 of 18 72% 4 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 9 9 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0
Wu Yanan 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 2 2 of 15 3 of 3 4 of 4
2 Lucie Pudilová 13 of 24 54% 3 of 11 3 of 6 7 of 7 13 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wu Yanan 30 of 59 50% 23 of 49 2 of 3 5 of 7 12 of 35 1 of 1 17 of 23
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Wu Yanan

Angelo picks Wu Yanan over Lucie Pudilová. He notes that Pudilová is a UFC vet on a second stint but had a four-fight losing skid before being cut. He believes Wu is genuinely better everywhere, with better striking and grappling, and that her losses were competitive against higher-level competition. However, he expresses caution about betting low-level women's MMA and says he might only bet if the odds move to plus money around +200.

Might bet Wu Yanan if odds move to around +200.
"yananwu is genuinely better everywhere yes she's one and four in her last five but she's been fighting the higher level of competition"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Wu Yanan

Big Brady picks the underdog Wu Yanan. He sees the fight as extremely close on the feet, slightly favoring Lucie Pudilová, but notes that Wu Yanan has shown takedown ability in recent fights. He believes Wu Yanan can mix in a takedown to seal a round and win a close decision. He mentions that Pudilová has poor takedown defense and no answer when taken down. Brady is not confident but sees a sneaky path for Wu Yanan.

Wu Yanan by decision
"i'm gonna i'm gonna pick you know the dog here to win this one um you won't catch me catch me better now on this one but uh i'll say she goes in here on the feet it's close she …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Wu Yanan

Cody also picks Wu Yanan, agreeing with Paul that grappling will be key. He notes Pudilova's limited takedown defense and thinks Wu Yanan can take her down. He is not confident and says he won't bet it heavily.

"i'll join you on woo um just because of that yeah it'll be a lot more fun but i mean i'm not i'm not going to be batting that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Pudilová is the better striker with more power, but the fight is a toss-up. The host would only bet if Pudilová becomes plus money, and would then consider a small play on her by decision. He is not confident enough to bet at current odds.

Would consider Pudilová by decision (+110) if she becomes plus money.
"The only way i'd looked about this fight is if putilova actually becomes plus money."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Wu Yanan

Paul picks Wu Yanan, citing her grappling edge and the fact that Pudilova has poor takedown defense. He notes it's a low-level women's MMA fight and expects grappling to be key. He admits he's not confident and calls it a 'dogger pass'.

"i think i gotta go with wu yannan on the basis of you know mid-level women's mma fight low-level women's mma fight grappling is probably going to end up being key here and she's got the grappling edge so"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Lucie Pudilová

The Guru initially forgot his pick and had to check, eventually settling on Lucie Pudilová by decision. He thinks she will minorly outstrike Yanan in every round and mix in takedowns at the end of rounds to secure them. He calls her very good and underrated, and believes her experience against decent competition will allow her to win 27-30 via unanimous decision.

Wins by unanimous decision 27-30
"i picked putilova okay we'll go uh lucy put it over then uh by decision 27"
LOSS vs Justine Kish
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justine Kish 0 62 of 129 48% 66 of 135 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Lucie Pudilová 0 29 of 143 20% 47 of 165 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justine Kish 0 21 of 43 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 11 of 46 23% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Justine Kish 0 23 of 41 56% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Lucie Pudilová 0 11 of 51 21% 16 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Justine Kish 0 18 of 45 40% 20 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Lucie Pudilová 0 7 of 46 15% 14 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justine Kish 62 of 129 48% 17 of 70 16 of 23 29 of 36 50 of 108 10 of 14 2 of 7
Lucie Pudilová 29 of 143 20% 22 of 131 6 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 137 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justine Kish 21 of 43 48% 5 of 25 6 of 7 10 of 11 16 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 11 of 46 23% 7 of 41 4 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 42 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Justine Kish 23 of 41 56% 6 of 20 7 of 10 10 of 11 20 of 34 3 of 7 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 11 of 51 21% 9 of 47 1 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Justine Kish 18 of 45 40% 6 of 25 3 of 6 9 of 14 14 of 36 2 of 2 2 of 7
Lucie Pudilová 7 of 46 15% 6 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Justine Kish

Daniel picks Justine Kish to win by decision, believing she is motivated and can return to her early UFC form with forward pressure. He notes that Pudilová has lapses in her fights and that Kish has experience against top-15 opponents. He thinks Kish's intensity will be the difference.

by decision
"I think she's gonna come out here and beat lucia putlova via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

The MMA Guru picks Lucie Pudilová, citing her better record and lesser reach advantage. He doesn't show much interest in the fight, noting the women's flyweight division is thin and that being in the top 15 is basically the standard.

"I'm gonna go Lucy put it over Justin Kish as are much better record bear record I guess but less as well lesser reach a smaller girl"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:20 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 23 69% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:54
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 16 37% 12 of 24 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 21 76% 34 of 39 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:37
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:40
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Lucie Pudilová 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 23 69% 3 of 6 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 3 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 8 5 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 21 76% 3 of 4 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 1
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Liz Carmouche
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Liz Carmouche 0 14 of 29 48% 40 of 56 3 of 3 100% 2 0 5:59
Lucie Pudilová 0 33 of 105 31% 57 of 133 0 of 1 0% 2 1 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Liz Carmouche 0 4 of 4 100% 25 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:10
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 20 30% 18 of 33 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:00
2 Liz Carmouche 0 3 of 10 30% 5 of 12 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
Lucie Pudilová 0 8 of 35 22% 9 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:45
3 Liz Carmouche 0 7 of 15 46% 10 of 18 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:56
Lucie Pudilová 0 19 of 50 38% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Liz Carmouche 14 of 29 48% 3 of 12 4 of 8 7 of 9 9 of 24 2 of 2 3 of 3
Lucie Pudilová 33 of 105 31% 13 of 77 3 of 6 17 of 22 15 of 81 2 of 4 16 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Liz Carmouche 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 1
2 Liz Carmouche 3 of 10 30% 0 of 4 0 of 2 3 of 4 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 8 of 35 22% 4 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 3 5 of 28 0 of 0 3 of 7
3 Liz Carmouche 7 of 15 46% 1 of 6 4 of 6 2 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3
Lucie Pudilová 19 of 50 38% 4 of 30 0 of 2 15 of 18 7 of 38 0 of 0 12 of 12
LOSS vs Irene Aldana
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 0 119 of 226 52% 121 of 228 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Lucie Pudilová 0 105 of 329 31% 110 of 336 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 28 of 102 27% 28 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Irene Aldana 0 36 of 73 49% 38 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 27 of 92 29% 28 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Irene Aldana 0 56 of 102 54% 56 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Lucie Pudilová 0 50 of 135 37% 54 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 119 of 226 52% 80 of 164 10 of 23 29 of 39 111 of 216 8 of 10 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 105 of 329 31% 81 of 289 11 of 20 13 of 20 99 of 319 6 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 27 of 51 52% 18 of 39 2 of 4 7 of 8 25 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 28 of 102 27% 20 of 90 2 of 4 6 of 8 25 of 98 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Irene Aldana 36 of 73 49% 21 of 50 4 of 8 11 of 15 34 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 27 of 92 29% 20 of 79 4 of 6 3 of 7 26 of 90 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Irene Aldana 56 of 102 54% 41 of 75 4 of 11 11 of 16 52 of 96 4 of 6 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 50 of 135 37% 41 of 120 5 of 10 4 of 5 48 of 131 2 of 4 0 of 0