Career Averages - Gunnar Nelson
Career Averages - Alex Oliveira
Gunnar Nelson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 30 of 44 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 9:29 |
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 55 of 89 | 61% | 138 of 178 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 31 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 73 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 34 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 15 of 24 | 62% | 10 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 55 of 89 | 61% | 30 of 57 | 15 of 20 | 10 of 12 | 15 of 34 | 22 of 27 | 18 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Kevin Holland | 19 of 37 | 51% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 13 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 23 | 73% | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 9 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Kevin Holland | 19 of 29 | 65% | 11 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)
Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.
Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.
The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.
The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.
Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 20 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 20 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 10 of 11 | 90% | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 |
| Bryan Barberena | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 10 of 11 | 90% | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 |
| Bryan Barberena | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Nelson but is not betting. He thinks Nelson's ground game is far superior and Barberena is tough but not technical. He notes Nelson's takedowns are telegraphed but Barberena will close distance and get clinched. He worries Nelson might not be motivated and could be a parlay buster.
Big Brady picks Nelson confidently, citing Barberena's atrocious takedown defense (taken down multiple times by lower-level fighters). He believes Nelson will take him down and submit him early. He predicts a first-round submission, noting Barberena was just submitted by RDA.
Cody picks Nelson, emphasizing Barberena's poor takedown defense and tendency to give up his back. He notes Nelson's elite back-taking and body triangle control. He thinks Nelson wins by decision or submission, but after Nelson's last fight where he didn't chase submissions, he's less sure about a finish. He says the line is reflective of what should happen but feels trappy due to Nelson's inactivity and age.
Connor picks Nelson based on his wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes that Barberena is slow-footed and vulnerable to takedowns, as shown by RDA easily taking him down. Nelson has a quick shot and good clinch trips. Connor acknowledges that Nelson's striking defense is poor and he can be shocked standing, but believes Nelson's path to victory is clear via takedowns and control. He also mentions that Barberena's scrambling is solid but Nelson's control grappling is superior.
Jacob calls Nelson his most confident play on the card. He thinks Barberena is not a powerful puncher and will struggle with Nelson's range. He expects Barberena to close distance and get taken down via body clinch. He notes everyone takes Barberena down and Nelson should dominate on the ground.
Nelson is a high-level grappler with a karate-style striking base, but has struggled against top competition. Barberena is a durable brawler who has been finished by technically better fighters. Nelson should be able to take the fight to the ground and submit Barberena, though the submission prop may not offer value at the expected line.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He discusses the trap potential: Nelson has had one fight in four years, is a small welterweight, and may not be the same fighter. He notes Barberena's ability to get back to his feet and that Nelson could get outstruck if he doesn't get a submission. He says he doesn't have the cojones to pick Barberena but has zero confidence in Nelson at the price.
The MMA Guru picks Gunnar Nelson to win by rear-naked choke, citing Barberena's short notice and defensive flaws exposed by Rafael dos Anjos. He notes Barberena repeatedly made the same mistake of lowering his stance, allowing inside trips. Nelson is a technical grappler who will exploit that and find a finish. He does not see Barberena having success on the feet either.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Barberena's takedown defense is poor and Nelson's wrestling is a major threat. He notes that Barberena has been taken down multiple times by lesser wrestlers. Zane also points out that Nelson's striking is vulnerable but his grappling is elite. He thinks Nelson will likely get the fight to the ground and control it. Zane adds that Barberena's best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot, but Nelson's speed and shot selection should prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 44 of 55 | 80% | 140 of 166 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 8:09 |
| Takashi Sato | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 46 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Takashi Sato | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 25 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Takashi Sato | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 69 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Takashi Sato | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 44 of 55 | 80% | 36 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 33 of 33 |
| Takashi Sato | 9 of 23 | 39% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 24 of 29 | 82% | 21 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 20 |
| Takashi Sato | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 12 of 16 | 75% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
| Takashi Sato | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 8 of 10 | 80% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Takashi Sato | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gunnar Nelson, predicting a submission win. He notes that Nelson has been away for two years due to rib injuries but has a short-notice opponent with grappling holes. He worries about Nelson's takedown entries leaving him hittable but thinks the UFC set him up for a win. He says Nelson probably wins by submission but acknowledges the layoff makes it uncertain.
Big Brady picks Gunnar Nelson to win by first-round submission, but expresses concern about Nelson's two-year layoff. He believes if Nelson is anywhere near his best, he should submit Sato early, as Sato has been submitted three times and has poor ground game. Brady notes Nelson has fought elite competition like Gilbert Burns and Leon Edwards, while Sato's level is lower.
Cody picks Nelson by submission, noting Nelson's superior grappling and Sato's submission liability. He thinks Nelson will get the fight to the mat and find a submission. He mentions the prop is minus 110 and he took it.
Daniel Levi picks Gunnar Nelson by submission, noting that Sato has lost 75% of his fights by submission and that Nelson has 12 submission wins. He acknowledges Nelson's low striking volume and questions his motivation, but believes Nelson only needs one takedown to finish. Levi also mentions the hometown advantage for British fighters at the O2, suggesting a decision win is possible if it goes the distance. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the high price on Nelson.
Nelson is a jiu-jitsu wizard who should get the fight to the ground and find a submission. Sato has been finished by submission in three of his last four losses, a huge red flag. However, ring rust and past injuries are concerns for Nelson. Sato has power and a karate style, but Nelson's grappling should be too much. I'd rather play Nelson inside the distance than the -450 line. I'm picking Nelson via second-round submission.
Paul picks Nelson, emphasizing his world-class skills and Sato's tendency to fade. He believes Nelson's cardio and grappling will be too much, and that Sato's power is only a threat early. He thinks Nelson will win handily, possibly by submission.
The Guru picks Gunnar Nelson but expects a first-round scare where Sato drops him. He believes Nelson will recover, get a takedown, and eventually secure a rear-naked choke in round two or three. He notes Nelson's close losses to Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns, and argues that if Burns couldn't finish him, Sato won't either. He predicts a late submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 30 of 76 | 39% | 46 of 99 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 17 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 20 of 36 | 55% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 30 of 76 | 39% | 8 of 47 | 8 of 11 | 14 of 18 | 19 of 55 | 10 of 18 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 11 of 28 | 39% | 1 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 11 of 27 | 40% | 4 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 15 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 7 of 9 | 77% | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 8 of 21 | 38% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A pair of welterweight submission specialists meet next, with Nelson (17-4-1, 8-4 UFC) looking to beat short-notice replacement Burns (16-3, 9-3 UFC). Referee Neil Hall is the third man inside the Octagon. The fight begins at range, with neither man ready to commit on any serious strikes. As Nelson tries to close the distance, Burns hits him with a leg kick and then a slapping left hand to separate them. Nelson sinks in a loud leg kick, but does not follow it with anything, allowing Burns to reply with one to Nelson's calf. "Gunni" tries to close the distance, but Burns defends before scoring another leg kick that bends the knee of Nelson. Nelson holds his hand outstretched, using it to find his range, and follows it with a right straight and a left hook that partially land. Burns commits to another leg kick, and then crashes forward but Nelson backs away. As Nelson comes in, he catches a knee, so he backs away and catches another leg kick for his troubles. The Icelandic fighter sneaks in a jab, and evades a low kick, as the two men seem content on engaging in a tentative kickboxing match. As Nelson comes in again, Burns sits down on an uppercut, forcing Nelson to retreat. The Brazilian charges in, winging shots that do not land before clinching up. Nelson scoops Burns' legs out from underneath him, and Burns tries for a leg lock but is nowhere near securing it as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
The second round opens with the two walking towards one another, and casually touch gloves before walking away. Burns starts out with a jab, and catches a side kick from Nelson. The action is few and far between as we get going, but Burns does score another low calf kick, and we can see Nelson's leg is changing color rapidly. "Gunni" whips a low kick that forces Burns to spin in a circle, and Nelson uses this moment to crash in and land a few strikes while Burns attempts to sit on the counter. Nelson tries to set up a takedown, and Burns is holding tight this time, but in the process Nelson scores a few short strikes in the clinch. Burns, with his back against the cage, looks confused as Nelson shoots in for a double leg that is easily stuffed. The Brazilian separates, and then crash together as Burns clubs Nelson with a right hand. With Nelson leaning on him, Burns tries to bring up a knee, causing Nelson to shrug his shoulders. The two break apart, and Nelson whiffs with a low kick. Nelson rushes in and tries to take the fight down again, but as they scuffle Burns judo throws him and lands Nelson on his head. "Gunni" immediately springs back up, so Burns leaps forward with a flying knee. As Nelson tries to take Burns down again, Burns defends it by trying to set up a brabo choke, but Nelson escapes. With 10 seconds left, Burns ends up on top and drops down a few hard punches, and the second stanza comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
Burns opens up with a spinning kick that falls well short of the target, and then they trade leg kicks. They come together again, and Nelson looks for a body lock before switching to a single, and Burns defends the attempts one by one. "Gunni" tries to set up a Thai clinch, but Nelson uses that moment to drop in a few short strikes and a right over the top. As they break, Burns wings a right hand that partially lands, causing Nelson to shoot in for a double again. Burns is strong against the fence, and stands up his Icelandic opponent. Burns slashes Nelson with an elbow, forcing Nelson to once again try for a takedown. There is nothing to be had for that attempt either, although he is racking up control time until Burns is tired of leaning against the fence. As they separate, Nelson loads up with a punch to the body, and Burns swings with all his might with a right hand that nearly causes him to fall over. Burns scores a few more effective leg kicks before launching a head kick that Nelson ducks. Another leg kick from Burns causes Nelson's leg to briefly buckle, so "Gunni" shoots in for yet another takedown. Burns shrugs it off, and uses the opportunity to lift up Nelson and slam him down emphatically. With 30 seconds left, Burns takes his opponent's back momentarily, but Nelson scrambles and stands back up quickly. This close fight wraps with Burns pressing Nelson against the cage, and the judges undoubtedly have their hands full with this one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 1 | 31 of 49 | 63% | 47 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 27 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 18 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 1 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 18 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 31 of 49 | 63% | 17 of 30 | 13 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 16 | 16 of 19 | 11 of 14 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 23 of 36 | 63% | 16 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 11 | 9 of 11 | 11 of 14 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 36 of 49 | 73% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:06 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 11 | 100% | 20 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 4:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 39 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:44 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 9 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 36 of 49 | 73% | 27 of 40 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 24 of 36 |
| Alex Oliveira | 11 of 11 | 100% | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 30 of 40 | 75% | 25 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 34 |
| Alex Oliveira | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
| Alex Oliveira | 9 of 9 | 100% | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gunnar Nelson | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Alex Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 50 of 76 | 65% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 50 of 76 | 65% | 24 of 48 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 23 | 34 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 44 | 47% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 31 of 50 | 62% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 21 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 19 of 39 | 48% | 6 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 19 of 26 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
| Alex Oliveira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Many expect that this welterweight scrap on the docket now is a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” candidate, as both Holland (21-7, 1 NC; 8-4, 1 NC UFC) and Oliveira (22-11-1, 2 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) love to put on a show. Both men had no issue making the 171-pound limit, and they appear to be fired up and excited to get after it. Referee Chris Tognoni wrangles them long enough to get them to stand behind their respective black lines, and when the fight begins, they rush together to touch gloves. Holland leads the dance with a low kick that connects and a high kick that whizzes past the head of “Cowboy.” Holland connects with another leg kick, drawing a reaction from Oliveira and a response with one of his own. Holland scores a third low kick to the calf, and he just misses when Oliveira wings a big right hook at him. Holland continues to chip away from the outside, and Oliveira catches him on the way in with a right hand counter that knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet. Holland is able to jump back up to his feet and block a flying knee that soars towards him, and he gets back to poking with calf kicks. Holland lunges forward with a right hand, and Oliveira is right there to return fire with a swiping right hook. The punches from Oliveira make Holland lean off-balance. Holland gets cracked with a right hand as he advances, and when he falls to the ground, he laces his legs up for a leglock. Oliveira is able to step out of danger, and he lifts Holland up and slams him down to the mat. Holland is able to scramble away, and he blasts “Cowboy” in the face with a crisp right hand that puts the Brazilian on rubber legs. Not one to shy away from a brawl, Oliveira swings right back and gets Holland’s respect with a few power shots that make Holland’s rear leg lock up for a second. Both men gather themselves and get back to kickboxing range, where Holland is comfortable working with leg kicks and away from the swinging punches that whiz at him. Oliveira chops down Holland’s lead leg with a kick that is much heavier than the ones Holland are throwing, and Holland does a twirl and comes back out swinging. Holland kicks low, and he has it checked, but it seems to have affected Oliveira as well. Oliveira tries to grab the kick, but when it lands, he throws back at Holland. Holland spins from the kick, and he gets snagged against from the Brazilian. In a ridiculous scramble, Oliveira takes his foe’s back and cinches up a rear-naked choke. Instead of being concerned at all, “Trailblazer” motions to thumbs-up signs from each hand to the camera, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 2
The hands get touched to start off the second round, and Oliveira appears to come out limping. Despite this, Oliveira charges ahead with a low kick, and he gets clipped with a small right hand counter. Holland smells blood, and he races out drop hammers on his wounded opponent. The knees of “Cowboy” give way beneath him and he crumbles to the mat, and Holland can see the finish line and delivers a brutal salvo of punches to end the fight. As Oliveira flails and protects himself from harm, Holland switches to elbows and smashes them in his adversary’s face one after the other. Unleashing the thunder, Holland gives it everything he has to record the finish, and Tognoni jumps in to pull Holland off of a wrecked “Cowboy.” There is no ill will between the two after the furious five-plus minutes of ferocity, and they hug it out to celebrate a hard-fought battle.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Alex Oliveira R2 0:38 via TKO (Elbows)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.
Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.
Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.
Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.
The MMA Guru calls Kevin Holland a lock over Alex Oliveira, citing Oliveira's decreased durability since a grenade attack and his tendency to slow down in fights. He believes Holland's youth, durability, and scrappiness will overwhelm Oliveira, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Oliveira has been chinned easily recently and that Holland's weight cut to welterweight should be manageable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 65 of 112 | 58% | 83 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 108 of 167 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 34 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 53 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 65 of 112 | 58% | 31 of 72 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 17 | 56 of 99 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 64 of 116 | 55% | 37 of 83 | 7 of 11 | 20 of 22 | 45 of 93 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 7 of 17 | 41% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 22 | 72% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 19 of 35 | 54% | 9 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 14 of 26 | 53% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 39 of 60 | 65% | 19 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 53 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.
Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.
Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.
Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.
I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.
Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Big Brady picks Oliveira to win a close decision as an underdog. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency is a concern, but if the best version shows up, he can mix in takedowns and top control. He thinks the fight should be closer to a pick'em and likes the value on Oliveira. He also mentions Brown's chin is questionable.
Cody is high on Brown, noting his consistent improvement and physical advantages. He points out Oliveira's lack of motivation and poor recent performances. He expects Brown to use his length and striking to control the fight, and thinks Oliveira will fade if he doesn't get an early finish. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown.
Daniel picks Randy Brown, believing his length and improving game will be too much for Alex Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency and that Brown will pull away in the later rounds, possibly getting a finish. He expects the first round to be close.
I lean Brown here. He has better cardio and technique, and Oliveira is inconsistent. Brown should use his reach and jab to outpoint Oliveira. I like Brown by decision at +225, and the over 1.5 at -225 is also solid. However, Oliveira could surprise with a wild performance, so confidence is not high.
Paul picks Brown, citing his improvement, length, and reach advantage. He notes Oliveira's distractions (nine kids, eight baby mamas) and declining interest. He expects Brown to use his jab and distance to outbox Oliveira, and thinks Oliveira's best days are behind him. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown after round one.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown by decision. He notes that Oliveira is injury-prone and often breaks toes or ribs during fights, while Brown is more durable. He predicts Oliveira wins the first round but Brown comes back in the second and third, winning 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.
The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 45 of 93 | 48% | 48 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 30 of 68 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 45 of 93 | 48% | 19 of 51 | 16 of 29 | 10 of 13 | 37 of 85 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 29 of 67 | 43% | 13 of 46 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 7 of 21 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 17 of 33 | 51% | 9 of 17 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 10 of 17 | 58% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 19 of 36 | 52% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 12 of 29 | 41% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.
Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.
Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 61 of 98 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 62 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 23 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 23 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 40 of 77 | 51% | 21 of 56 | 11 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 35 of 67 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 23 of 50 | 46% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 23 of 41 | 56% | 9 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Opening up the main card is a battle between two welterweights in desperate need of a win as “Cowboy” Oliveira (19-8-1, 2 NC; 9-6, 1 NC UFC) takes on Griffin (15-7, 3-5 UFC) . Drawing the assignment is referee Mark Smith. There is no glove touch, as Griffin comes out firing with a heavy one-two that just misses the mark. Griffin is racing after him, and gets clipped on the way in but does not pull back. “Pain” swings heavily, but does not connect flush, as Oliveira dances away and spins about almost to celebrate that he did not get hit. Oliveira crashes forward and dings him with a right hand before clinching up, and Griffin fights himself free. The two try to paw out their left hands for range, and Oliveira throws a right hand so hard he nearly falls over. The two both wing their punches, and Oliveira sticks out a jab. Griffin takes a one-two, and comes right back with a similar combination but does not score it. The two swing and trade at the same time, and Griffin tags him and cause Oliveira to go flailing with an uppercut. Griffin hits a takedown, and his corner screams at him to back off and do damage. In full guard, Griffin stays heavy while throwing some short punches, and Smith chides Griffin on punching to the back of the head. Griffin passes to half guard, and Oliveira tries to pull himself up the fence so Smith shouts at him to let it go. Griffin stays tight and looks to tie up Oliveira’s arm with his leg, but the Brazilian gets his arm free before interlocking his toes in the fence. Smith again warns him to let go of the cage, and has to slap Oliveira’s toes out. All the while, Griffin slowly works with some elbows and looks at an arm-triangle choke, but with Oliveira against the cage wall, he cannot get leverage to set anything up. As Oliveira springs to his feet, Griffin takes his back, but “Cowboy” rips himself free and the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
Like the first, Griffin practically sprints towards his opponent to land a long jab. Oliveira is ready for it, and catches him before landing two heavy leg kicks that make Griffin’s knee a little wobbly. Oliveira fires out a few more jabs, and Griffin is busted up from these shots with a cut above his right eye towards the bridge of his nose. Oliveira rushes in with a strike, and Griffin times a takedown but the Brazilian halts it. Instead, he turns the position around tries to pull for a single leg takedown, and we can see the blood pouring out of Griffin’s forehead. Smith calls in the doctor to check on the cut, which we can see came from a fierce uppercut. The doctor clears him to continue, and we are back to it. The two men start off with some jabs, and Oliveira pursues the low calf kick that is really irritating Griffin quickly. The two come together and swing, and Oliveira is timing the uppercut but cannot score it. The Brazilian lands an outside and then inside leg kick to the damaged leg, and takes a powerful right hand along the way. The two both come together with huge right hands, and both are clear of the mark with their home run shots. Griffin clinches up, but again Oliveira reverses him. In an attempt to break free, Oliveira pirouettes with a spinning elbow and Griffin is barely able to block it. Griffin shoots in low for a takedown, and Oliveira defends it with a guillotine before pushing him against the fence. After some tense but slow clinch work, “Cowboy” pursues a single but cannot get it, so Griffin breaks free and swings a heavy right hand that is short of the mark. Oliveira stings him with two more right hands, and when Griffin goes after a labored spinning back fist, Oliveira shoots low for one last takedown to seal the round. He does not land it, and the round is over with Griffin bleeding heavily.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
The last round kicks off with Griffin cleared to continue, as we see a separate cut under Griffin’s other eye. Oliveira scores a few long front kicks where he stabs with his toes, and then goes up top with a head kick that is blocked. Griffin tries to close the distance, and Oliveira spins him around to get a takedown. “Pain” stays strong, and spins him around while taking a few elbows to the side and back of his head. Griffin complains, and Smith warns the Brazilian as a cut has now opened on the top of Griffin’s head. This fight could quickly turn into a performance from the Edwin Dewees playbook, and Oliveira separates only to hit a takedown. “Cowboy” lands on top and pursues a choke, before taking full mount, and Griffin is in a bad way as the blood pours into his eye. Oliveira pulls for a straight armlock while on top, and bails on it to end in half guard. Griffin wears a crimson mask and is grimacing as he is not likely able to see, and Oliveira capitalizes with a few short but effective punches on top. The Brazilian once more takes mount, and is starting to unload punches while Griffin tries to blink his eyes clear. Griffin scrambles and manages to reverse the position, and Oliveira falls to his back when he cannot come close to sinking in a guillotine choke. Griffin steps over to half guard and drops some elbows on his man, and Oliveira is holding on for dear life. With 80 seconds to go, Griffin is giving Oliveira his best “You don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression as he bleeds down on his opponent without getting many strikes off. Griffin grinds and starts to pour it on with some very short elbows and punches to try to steal the round. The judges have their hands full in this round, as Griffin ends the fight on top. What a bloody mess of a battle, but it sure was fun.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Alex Oliveira def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.
Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 31 of 84 | 36% | 64 of 122 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 5:29 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 31 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 34 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 10 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 31 of 84 | 36% | 19 of 64 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 45 | 11 of 18 | 11 of 21 |
| Alex Oliveira | 18 of 47 | 38% | 14 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 7 of 29 | 24% | 0 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 12 of 32 | 37% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 14 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 13 of 26 | 50% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 20 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Going back to welterweight, the always-exciting Oliveira (19-7-1, 2 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) tries to spoil the homecoming of Denmark's Dalby (17-3-1, 1 NC; 1-2-1 UFC). In his walk to the cage, Dalby is accompanied by the Denmark National Anthem, as performed by his fiancée Dzifa Adjo Akpalu. The referee taking charge of the cage is Rebin Saber. Oliveira opens up with a low leg kick, and then charges forward with a slew of punches that all fall short. The crowd is electric for their home country fighter, who scores a few slapping leg kicks while trying to find his range on the elusive Brazilian. Dalby leaps through the air with a knee, and as he falls shy of the target, Oliveira tries to counter on the way down, but he too misses. Dalby scores an inside leg kick, and Oliveira replies with one that Dalby checks. "Cowboy" whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, and Dalby responds with a spinning back kick that is nowhere near the mark. Dalby chases Oliveira down with a few punches, punctuated by a head kick that does not land flush. The Dane again blitzes forward, partially connecting with a right hand while avoiding the hard counter from the Brazilian. As Oliveira throws a big right over the top, Dalby shoots in for a takedown, but Oliveira stuffs it. Dalby presses Oliveira against the fence and tries to trip his opponent down, but Oliveira keeps his balance and stays upright, although his back is against the cage. Unsuccessful on another trip, it is actually Oliveira who gets the fight down, scooping the legs of Dalby while attempting to take the back. Returning to full guard, Oliveira drops down a loud right hand and little more, while Dalby tries to set up a triangle. Oliveira shucks off the attempt and lands in half guard, before Dalby reverses position and gets Oliveira down. The crowd is so loud cheering for Dalby that we cannot hear the horn sounding, but the round is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
Oliveira charges forward to begin the round, but does not successfully land on his first combination. Dalby plants a front kick to the chest of his adversary, and unfortunately Oliveira takes an eye poke and makes the referee stop the action. The fight resumes after a very short break, and the two men trade leg kicks before slamming hooks on each other's chins. In the flurry, Dalby floats up a head kick that blasts Oliveira on the side of the head, causing the Brazilian to clinch up. This does not prove to his advantage, as Dalby circles around and scoops the legs from underneath his opponent, with Dalby landing on top to the delight of the crowd. Quickly passing to half guard, Dalby drops down a few short elbows and punches to frustrating effect, so Oliveira tries to turn out of the position. Dalby lands a few punches that might be close to the back of his opponent's head, and then hammers down a couple elbows that are quite effective. Dalby pounds Oliveira with several right hands until the Brazilian has had enough, and Oliveira powers out of the position to stand up. Dalby leans heavy against the fence, and he has successfully bloodied the nose of "Cowboy." On the break, Oliveira tries to spin with a back elbow, but Dalby dodges it and comes on strong, landing punch after punch while Oliveira turtles up. With his opponent possibly playing possum, Dalby stays patient and continues to land on Oliveira. The Brazilian falls to the canvas, and in a scramble Oliveira briefly takes position, but he falls off the back and Dalby ends up on top. Oliveira lands an illegal upkick, causing Saber to pause the action and admonish Oliveira, and stands them back up. With seconds remaining, Oliveira cracks Dalby with a left hand, but Dalby walks it off and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Oliveira's corner implores their fighter to "believe in yourself," causing Oliveira to smile as the final round begins. Dalby just misses with a head kick, causing the crowd to loudly gasp. Dalby shoots in for a double leg takedown and cannot land it, so Oliveira fishes for a guillotine choke. Unable to secure it, the Brazilian bails on it and spins Dalby against the fence. Oliveira tries to kick out the leg of his opponent, and lifts Dalby up and throws him to the cage floor. In side control, Oliveira throws a few knees to the body and grinds his elbow on the Dane's face. Dalby retains half guard, and is looking to sweep the Brazilian, but Oliveira stays strong and hammers down with several punches before the referee inexplicably stands them up. Not wanting to stay on the feet, Oliveira leaps into a double leg takedown, and scores it to drag Dalby back down. "Lokomotivo" rolls out and ends up on top, before taking full mount, and the crowd is deafening in support of their fighter. Dalby postures up to rain down punches and elbows, and then looks to set up an arm-triangle choke before giving it up to keep his strikes going. Dalby sits back up and smashes a few huge elbows to punctuate the fight, and the crowd is elated at Dalby's performance as the bout concludes. The two men embrace and raise their arms in the air after an exciting battle.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 0 | 48 of 137 | 35% | 50 of 139 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 75 of 120 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 0 | 15 of 55 | 27% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 48 of 137 | 35% | 30 of 110 | 7 of 16 | 11 of 11 | 42 of 125 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 65 of 110 | 59% | 48 of 90 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 | 32 of 72 | 18 of 19 | 15 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 17 of 48 | 35% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 36 | 58% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 18 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 15 of 55 | 27% | 9 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 24 of 45 | 53% | 18 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
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