UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018 · Welterweight · Completed
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Tyron Woodley
2.36 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.76 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Darren Till
2.3 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.55 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Tyron Woodley - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission (brabo choke) R1 3:56 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes Luque's high volume (5.72 significant strikes per minute) compared to Woodley's low output (2.33), and that Woodley has lost 15 rounds in a row. He believes Woodley needs a knockout to win, but Luque has never been knocked out in 26 fights. He also mentions Woodley's age (38) and lack of takedowns since 2015. He is comfortable with Luque winning a volume-based decision.

Luque by decision; Luque in a parlay with Tai Tuivasa from last week
"i like luca here pretty comfortably outside of lu you know woodley being the first one to knock out luke"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque but is not overly confident due to the price. He notes that Woodley has been completely non-existent in his last three fights, losing every minute of every round. He worries that Woodley might finally let his hands go and catch Luque, who is hittable. However, he believes Luque's volume and technical striking will be enough to win a decision.

Luque by decision +150, fight goes to decision -150
"i ended up taking uh luke by decision plus 150 and fight goes to decision minus 150"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to knock out Tyron Woodley in the second round. He argues that Woodley has lost 15 straight rounds, is 40 years old, and no longer has the same speed or power. Levi believes Luque's calf kicks and left hook will break Woodley down, and that Woodley's hesitancy and lack of output will be his downfall. He notes that Luque has a 90% finish rate and is in a much better mental and physical condition.

second round knockout, calf kicks
"i think vicente lucay to knock tyron woodley out i'm gonna say second round first with the cav kick beating and then with the left hook or overhand right"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The host picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes that Woodley has been inactive, reliant on one-punch power, and has poor cardio, while Luque is a durable Muay Thai striker with good pressure and leg kicks. He mentions that Woodley's wrestling has been absent in recent fights and that Luque has never been knocked out in the UFC. He considers Woodley's inside distance prop at +600 as the only way to bet on him, but overall favors Luque's consistent output and pressure.

Woodley inside distance +600 is the only Woodley bet worth considering
"I do like Lukey here I think he wins this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, calling Woodley one of the least impressive champions in UFC history. He details Woodley's pattern of low volume and backing up, and notes that Luque throws a lot of volume and has clean striking. He acknowledges the risk of Woodley's power but thinks Luque's pace and pressure will be too much. He is not betting Luque as a top ticket but as a second-line play.

"i'm going to take vincente luke but he's not a top ticket guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The Guru picks Vicente Luque by unanimous decision, citing Woodley's decline and Luque's advantages. He notes Woodley fights to survive, gasses out, and has lost muscle mass, possibly off PEDs. Luque's training at Sanford MMA gives him a game plan similar to Burns and Covington: clinch work, body kicks, and pressure. He acknowledges Woodley's value as an underdog and his power, but trusts Luque's chin and durability. He predicts a 30-27 decision with Woodley having early moments.

Woodley by KO is a value bet; Luque by decision; odds disrespect Woodley
"i'm gonna go with vicente luke by decision i don't i really you know what i feel like woodley fights nowadays to survive and not to like win"
LOSS vs Colby Covington
TKO (rib injury) R5 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 78 of 143 54% 232 of 311 3 of 8 37% 0 0 12:01
Tyron Woodley 0 34 of 83 40% 67 of 116 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 13 of 32 40% 36 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 22 22% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 20 of 43 46% 32 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
Tyron Woodley 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
3 Colby Covington 0 23 of 31 74% 51 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:23
Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 26 46% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Colby Covington 0 18 of 28 64% 104 of 123 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:25
Tyron Woodley 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Tyron Woodley 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 78 of 143 54% 47 of 106 22 of 28 9 of 9 43 of 101 19 of 20 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 34 of 83 40% 14 of 58 15 of 20 5 of 5 26 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 13 of 32 40% 8 of 25 3 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 5 of 22 22% 1 of 15 3 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 20 of 43 46% 11 of 32 6 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 23 of 31 74% 11 of 19 10 of 10 2 of 2 15 of 23 8 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 12 of 26 46% 6 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 18 of 28 64% 17 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Big Brady picks Colby Covington by decision, believing Woodley is on the decline and Covington will use his wrestling and cardio to grind him out. He notes Covington averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and Woodley's takedown defense may not hold up. He expects Covington to survive Woodley's early power and take over in later rounds.

Covington by decision
"give me colby covington by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Colby Covington

The host is extremely confident in Colby Covington's pace, cardio, and pressure, believing Tyron Woodley's only path to victory is an early knockout. He notes Woodley's poor gas tank and tendency to fade, while Covington's relentless wrestling and volume will overwhelm him. He predicts a fifth-round stoppage due to accumulated damage, and recommends betting Covington straight up or on round 5 props.

Colby Covington wins by TKO in round 5 +2300; Colby Covington wins by decision (alternative)
"I am super [ __ ] confident in kobe comington here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Colby Covington

The host picks Colby Covington over Tyron Woodley, citing Covington's volume, pressure, pace, and offensive wrestling as the keys to beating Woodley. He notes that Woodley has been beaten by these attributes before (by Usman, Burns, Rory MacDonald, Jake Shields) and that Woodley is 38 and fading. He predicts a fourth-round TKO via unanswered shots as Woodley tires and fails to defend intelligently.

fourth round TKO via unanswered shots
"I think we're gonna see a fourth round tko finish not by concussive damage just by unanswered shots and woodley not really intelligently defending himself."
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 28 of 64 43% 65 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Tyron Woodley 0 83 of 138 60% 156 of 211 2 of 8 25% 1 0 7:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 2 of 8 25% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 34 73% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
2 Gilbert Burns 0 12 of 17 70% 34 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 20 55% 37 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
3 Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 19 of 42 45% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 8 62% 12 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:09
Tyron Woodley 0 18 of 24 75% 47 of 53 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:55
5 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 18 55% 24 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 28 of 64 43% 14 of 44 12 of 17 2 of 3 19 of 55 9 of 9 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 83 of 138 60% 41 of 82 27 of 31 15 of 25 51 of 102 13 of 16 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 34 73% 19 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 3 15 of 16
2 Gilbert Burns 12 of 17 70% 7 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 13 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 11 of 20 55% 3 of 8 6 of 7 2 of 5 5 of 12 4 of 6 2 of 2
3 Gilbert Burns 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 19 of 42 45% 6 of 23 7 of 10 6 of 9 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Gilbert Burns 5 of 8 62% 0 of 3 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 18 of 24 75% 11 of 17 6 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 16 6 of 6 2 of 2
5 Gilbert Burns 5 of 14 35% 4 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 10 of 18 55% 2 of 8 5 of 5 3 of 5 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
We have now reached the main event of the evening, in a pivotal welterweight pairing between ex-champ Woodley (19-4-1, 9-3-1 UFC) and the surging heavy-handed grappler Burns (18-3, 11-3 UFC). Since Woodley last competed, Burns has fought and won four times. This headliner will be officiated by referee Herb Dean, and a respectful glove touch commences the last fight of the night. Burns comes out energized, hopping around and avoiding long punches and a looping left hand from his opponent. Burns starts off with a low kick, and evades a counter left hand. They come together, and Burns nails Woodley with powerful uppercuts and short hooks. Woodley is stunned, and Burns bulldozes him over and puts Woodley down. The Brazilian chases after him and starts unloading furious punches, and steps over into mount while Woodley is still trying to clear his head out. Burns thinks to go for a submission, but opts to drop some left hands down. Woodley’s forehead is cut, and he sits up to put his neck in guillotine choke danger. Woodley calmly lays back down to get free from the threat, and Burns slices an elbow down. Burns remains heavy while trying to find an avenue to deal some damage, and Woodley is holding him tight. Burns postures up to rain down punishment, and Woodley uses that exact moment to burst out and get back to his feet. Burns takes the center of the cage and digs to the body with a kick. The left side of Woodley’s face is covered in blood, but the former champ is not afraid as he tries to throw a big left hand. Burns catches him on the way in with a low kick. Woodley tries to sticks out a left, and Burns fires a low kick that makes Woodley nod in acknowledgement. Burns hits him in the body with a kick, and clips Woodley with a left hand that makes Woodley clap his hands in frustration or to motivate himself. The round ends with a bloodied Woodley blinking his eye out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
With a solid cut on his head that has been patched well, Woodley is amped up and stings Burns with a right hand. Burns shakes it off and comes back to engage, only to get drilled on the side of the head once more with a solid right. Burns kicks low, and Woodley circles around the outside to reset. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Woodley’s offense has paused as he briefly reaches out his left hand to find distance. Burns stays loose on the outside, with kicks and the occasional jab while Woodley only reacts. Burns loads up on a huge right hand, and Woodley dives out of the way to avoid the blow. Burns crashes forward, and unexpectedly hits a double leg takedown -- Woodley’s takedown defense rate is historically high -- to plant Woodley on his back. Woodley tries to walk up the fence, and gets on knee but takes a knee to the torso. Burns tries to wrench him back down, so Woodley fights hands and takes a few stiff punches to get back standing again. Woodley turns around and lifts up a high knee, so Burns returns fire with a similar strike. Burns sneaks in a few short shots, and Woodley is only concerned with getting position back. Woodley grinds him against the fence for the waning seconds of the round, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
Woodley begins the third frame with a few jabs to keep Burns off of him, as Burns is advancing aggressively. Woodley is not following his jabs with any strikes, and only uses fakes after sticking his left hand out repeatedly. Burns commits to a low kick, and Woodley counters over the top with a straight right. Burns walks through it as if it never happened, and is hopping towards his opponent while blocking a few punches coming his direction. Burns fires a big right hook and hurts Woodley, but the former champ recovers well and returns fire with a right of his own. Burns drops his hands almost as if to taunt Woodley, and Woodley does not take advantage of it so Burns cracks him again. Woodley throws a big looping hook that lands on the shoulder, and Burns gives him a smirk. Burns aims for the body with a kick and a long jab, and the single strikes for the Brazilian are picking away at his adversary. Burns jumps forward with a kick and falls over, but “The Chosen One” perhaps wisely does not follow him down to the ground. Burns throws a left straight followed by a huge right hook, and Burns barely avoided it. “Durinho” tags the leg with a kick, and Woodley puts on a brave face but that kick did some damage. Burns is keeping Woodley with his back against the fence and he does not throw much offense going backwards. Burns digs to the body with another kick, and he ducks away while Woodley slings a right towards him. Burns works a few more low kicks, and Woodley is practically standing in front of him waiting to get too close so he can counter with a thudding right. Burns does not fall for the trap, and lands one last kick low to conclude the round. The Brazilian is so fired up that he is likely winning the fight that security practically drags him back to his corner after the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 4
The tentative nature of Woodley continues in the fourth, as Burns lands a left hook on him while not getting countered. Woodley ducks down to try to take the fight down, and Burns holds him up but gets shoved to the fence. After some grueling clinch work, Burns turns him around and lands a few knees and an “old school” foot stomp. Dean separates the two after some inaction, and Woodley celebrates the break with a big right hand that is blocked. Burns comes back firing, and lands a few sharp jabs that make Woodley clap again. A kick from Burns is caught, and Woodley tries to run the pipe and get him down but Burns hops away out of danger. Burns advances forward to get Woodley to bite on feints and fakes, and connects with a blistering right hook that nearly puts Woodley down. A follow-up right from “Durinho” lands on the side of the former champ’s head, and Woodley pursues a desperation takedown that is fruitless. After a clinch exchange, Burns is the one that pulls his man down again. Woodley is stuck on his back, while Burns gets in half guard and drops down some short punches. Burns steps over into mount and rolls into a potential choke, allowing Woodley to roll free and nearly end up on top. Burns pushes away, and when the round ends, we can see there is a massive cut on Woodley’s eyebrow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 5
Burns opens up with a kick, and Woodley counters with an overhand left that sends Burns off-balance. Burns shoots in low for a double, and transitions to a single as Woodley sprawls against the fence to defend it. Burns leans heavily to drain precious seconds off the clock, and Woodley tries with all his might to spin out but is stuck. Woodley manages to finally turn his man around, but the minor victory lasts about five seconds before Burns regains position. The Brazilian tries to tie up the legs and hit a trip, but Woodley is wise to it and spins him around again. Burns signals to Dean that Woodley is not doing anything with the position, and Dean calls for the two to work. Burns punches around the back of Woodley’s head until they break. Burns marches forward with two left hands, and scores a leg kick. Woodley unleashes a ferocious counter right, and Burns ducks it and smiles. Woodley catches him on the way in with a left, and Burns is caught upright but eats it like a sandwich. “Durinho” lands a body kick as he pecks away while time is just streaming off the clock. Less than 90 seconds remain and Woodley is still with his back to the cage, not throwing much. They tie up, and Woodley presses on him while Burns once again protests. Even though he is almost certainly up on every round, Burns is the fighter that wants to continue throwing leather. Burns fires body kicks and looping right hands, and he still wants a finish even though he could easily cruise to victory. Woodley lands a counter left along with a right that gets blocked, and the horn sounds to end a fight that is totally one-way traffic. We have a new title contender at welterweight, ladies and gentlemen. See you next week!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-45 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Big Brady picks Tyron Woodley to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Woodley's takedown defense is elite and that Burns will not be able to take him down. He thinks Burns will come in overconfident and get caught by a hard shot from Woodley, who hits very hard. However, he notes that Woodley's mental state is a question mark and that Burns could win a close decision if he outworks Woodley, but he ultimately favors Woodley's power and experience.

Woodley by KO in round 2; not touching from a betting perspective due to mental question marks
"I'm going to go with Woodley I'm going to pick Woodley to win by knockout and in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Daniel leans slightly towards Woodley, believing that at his best he is the better fighter. He acknowledges Woodley's mental fragility and poor performance against Usman, but thinks Woodley's wrestling and power give him a clear path to victory. He notes that Burns has improved but is still hittable and may struggle with Woodley's strength. Daniel calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and is not fully confident.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna slightly lean towards the former champion woodley because i think at his best that he's a better fighter than gilbert dorino"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

The MMA Guru picks Tyron Woodley to win by TKO in the second round. He believes Woodley will be patient, let Burns win the first round, then catch him with a counter shot when Burns gets overconfident and tired. He notes that Burns is on short notice and had close fights with Gunnar Nelson and Alexey Kunchenko, and that his win over Demian Maia is not impressive because Maia was looking for a fight with Diego Sanchez. He acknowledges Woodley's annoying style but respects his skill.

Woodley by TKO in round 2
"I'm going with tyron woodley here I think he's gonna get the job done in the second round by TKO"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 34 of 51 66% 60 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 141 of 194 72% 336 of 390 2 of 6 33% 0 0 18:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 8 of 11 72% 19 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 22 of 32 68% 68 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:53
2 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 21 of 29 72% 74 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 19 73% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 45 of 59 76% 78 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:51
4 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 16 62% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 38 of 58 65% 55 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
5 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 16 93% 61 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 34 of 51 66% 12 of 28 18 of 19 4 of 4 10 of 24 24 of 27 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 141 of 194 72% 56 of 104 83 of 87 2 of 3 27 of 73 78 of 82 36 of 39
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 8 of 11 72% 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 22 of 32 68% 5 of 14 16 of 17 1 of 1 4 of 14 16 of 16 2 of 2
2 Kamaru Usman 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 21 of 29 72% 16 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 8 7 of 7 11 of 14
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 19 73% 1 of 5 11 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 6 12 of 13 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 45 of 59 76% 2 of 15 43 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 13 45 of 46 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 10 of 16 62% 8 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 8 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 38 of 58 65% 28 of 47 9 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 36 10 of 13 9 of 9
5 Kamaru Usman 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 15 of 16 93% 5 of 5 10 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 14
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Demian Maia
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 153 37% 57 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Demian Maia 0 28 of 89 31% 29 of 90 0 of 21 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
2 Tyron Woodley 1 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Demian Maia 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
5 Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 8 of 20 40% 9 of 21 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 153 37% 40 of 131 13 of 18 4 of 4 56 of 152 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 28 of 89 31% 23 of 83 2 of 3 3 of 3 26 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 12 of 41 29% 9 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 24 33% 6 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 15 of 39 38% 11 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 10 of 26 38% 6 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 20 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (majority) (48–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Mar 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 54 of 125 43% 70 of 141 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:58
Stephen Thompson 0 53 of 146 36% 66 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 28 53% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
Stephen Thompson 0 14 of 28 50% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Tyron Woodley 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Tyron Woodley 1 17 of 47 36% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Stephen Thompson 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 54 of 125 43% 28 of 89 20 of 30 6 of 6 30 of 92 5 of 12 19 of 21
Stephen Thompson 53 of 146 36% 30 of 115 17 of 24 6 of 7 52 of 144 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 5 of 12 41% 0 of 5 1 of 3 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 19 31% 4 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 8 of 16 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 8 of 24 33% 4 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 15 of 28 53% 8 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 14 1 of 2 12 of 12
Stephen Thompson 14 of 28 50% 4 of 18 9 of 9 1 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 9 of 22 40% 1 of 12 8 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 12 of 34 35% 10 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 17 of 47 36% 16 of 43 1 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 28 4 of 10 7 of 9
Stephen Thompson 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 3 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Draw (majority) (47–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 61 of 141 43% 113 of 200 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:51
Stephen Thompson 0 43 of 161 26% 60 of 181 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 14 of 18 77% 45 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Stephen Thompson 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 4 of 22 18% 14 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 47 21% 10 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 1 27 of 41 65% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:46
Stephen Thompson 0 5 of 19 26% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:25
5 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 61 of 141 43% 42 of 111 13 of 21 6 of 9 23 of 93 13 of 18 25 of 30
Stephen Thompson 43 of 161 26% 26 of 125 11 of 28 6 of 8 42 of 152 0 of 1 1 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 14 of 18 77% 8 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 17
Stephen Thompson 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 4 of 22 18% 0 of 12 3 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 31 19% 4 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 8 of 32 25% 6 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 3 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 47 21% 5 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 27 of 41 65% 24 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 13 11 of 15 11 of 13
Stephen Thompson 5 of 19 26% 4 of 14 0 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 8
5 Tyron Woodley 8 of 28 28% 4 of 22 1 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 21 of 60 35% 13 of 47 6 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till - Fight History
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
LOSS vs Derek Brunson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 69 of 157 43% 100 of 188 2 of 13 15% 0 0 2:29
Darren Till 0 41 of 99 41% 50 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 30 36% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 12 of 24 50% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Robert Whittaker 1 15 of 30 50% 42 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Darren Till 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Darren Till 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 34 38% 14 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Till 0 8 of 19 42% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Robert Whittaker 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:33
Darren Till 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 69 of 157 43% 32 of 116 7 of 10 30 of 31 57 of 139 7 of 11 5 of 7
Darren Till 41 of 99 41% 29 of 86 7 of 8 5 of 5 31 of 87 7 of 9 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 11 of 30 36% 4 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 6 10 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 24 50% 8 of 20 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 18 3 of 3 3 of 3
2 Robert Whittaker 15 of 30 50% 7 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 7
Darren Till 3 of 12 25% 0 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 13 of 32 40% 8 of 26 0 of 1 5 of 5 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Till 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Robert Whittaker 13 of 34 38% 7 of 26 1 of 2 5 of 6 12 of 31 1 of 3 0 of 0
Darren Till 8 of 19 42% 6 of 16 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 17 of 31 54% 6 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 7 14 of 26 3 of 5 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 23 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Whittaker because he believes Whittaker is the more talented fighter and will throw more volume. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after the Adesanya KO, but thinks if it holds up, Whittaker runs away with it. He is not impressed with Till's recent win over Gastelum and sees Till as basic. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker.

Whittaker by decision
"I just see him doing more I think he's that more talented fighter honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel leans Whittaker, citing his power and strength, but acknowledges Till's late-round success and hunger. He notes Whittaker's defensive flaws and Till's limited but effective striking. He sees a possible second-round knockout for Whittaker but is not confident, calling it a dog-or-pass fight from a betting perspective.

dog or pass from betting perspective
"i slightly do lean whitaker... i feel like he has more power i feel like till is good and he's got good timing... but from a betting perspective it would be dog or pass for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker is the better overall striker with superior movement and combination punching. He will be able to cover range effectively and land blitzes, while Till may struggle with Whittaker's speed and variety. Whittaker's chin is not completely shot despite the Adesanya KO, and he should shake off rust and finish Till in the third or fourth round.

Whittaker by TKO in round 3 or 4
"i do like whitaker to win this fight i think he's actually even gonna knock out derentel probably in the third or fourth round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till, arguing that elite strikers beat Robert Whittaker, citing Whittaker's losses to Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after wars with Romero and the Adesanya KO, while Till has had time to recover and adjust to middleweight. He predicts Till will catch Whittaker lunging in with a left hand and finish him by TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round
"I think that Darren Till wins. I really do. I think Elite Strikers beat Robert Whitaker."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 40 of 81 49% 50 of 96 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
Kelvin Gastelum 0 36 of 67 53% 37 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 11 of 23 47% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
Kelvin Gastelum 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Darren Till 0 14 of 25 56% 18 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 23 52% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Darren Till 0 15 of 33 45% 17 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:27
Kelvin Gastelum 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 40 of 81 49% 8 of 41 11 of 14 21 of 26 26 of 63 14 of 18 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 36 of 67 53% 19 of 48 2 of 2 15 of 17 34 of 61 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 11 of 23 47% 1 of 8 2 of 4 8 of 11 2 of 11 9 of 12 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 7 of 16 43% 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 6 6 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 14 of 25 56% 2 of 11 4 of 5 8 of 9 12 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 7 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 15 of 33 45% 5 of 22 5 of 5 5 of 6 12 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 17 of 28 60% 12 of 23 1 of 1 4 of 4 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jorge Masvidal
KO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 21 of 43 48% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Darren Till 1 35 of 72 48% 41 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Darren Till 0 19 of 39 48% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Darren Till 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 43 48% 17 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 35 of 72 48% 18 of 51 10 of 12 7 of 9 31 of 65 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 13 of 27 48% 10 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 19 of 39 48% 10 of 27 6 of 8 3 of 4 17 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 33 48% 8 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 5 14 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
LOSS vs Tyron Woodley
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · May 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 30 of 126 23% 31 of 127 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 38 of 126 30% 40 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Till 0 6 of 28 21% 6 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Darren Till 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Darren Till 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 7 of 33 21% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Darren Till 0 3 of 23 13% 4 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 9 of 24 37% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 30 of 126 23% 8 of 92 13 of 19 9 of 15 29 of 125 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 38 of 126 30% 18 of 87 5 of 12 15 of 27 34 of 121 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 5 of 18 27% 0 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 4 of 12 33% 0 of 6 1 of 2 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 6 of 28 21% 1 of 22 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 25 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 9 7 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 8 of 31 25% 3 of 24 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 32 28% 7 of 25 0 of 2 2 of 5 9 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Darren Till 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 7 of 33 21% 4 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 6 6 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Darren Till 3 of 23 13% 1 of 17 1 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 24 37% 5 of 17 2 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 4:20 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Till · Oct 21, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4