Career Averages - Tatiana Suarez
Career Averages - Carla Esparza
Tatiana Suarez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 56 of 77 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:12 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 25 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 50 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 23 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 12 of 26 | 46% | 4 of 14 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 7 |
| Loopy Godinez | 18 of 25 | 72% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 |
| Loopy Godinez | 17 of 22 | 77% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 13 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 5 of 13 | 38% | 0 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tatiana Suarez despite finding her boring, citing her dominant wrestling and predictability. He acknowledges Loopy Godinez's skills and striking but criticizes her low fight IQ and poor decisions. He believes Loopy could win if she sticks to striking but expects her to make mistakes and end up on her back.
Big Brady is worried about Tatiana Suarez after her poor performances against Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, noting she gassed and couldn't get dominant positions. He thinks Loopy Godinez has good takedown defense and superior striking with volume and boxing. He expects a close split decision and leans Godinez.
Cody picks Godinez, citing Suarez's injuries, layoffs, and declining wrestling. He thinks Godinez's scrambling, boxing, and volume will earn her a decision win.
Connor picks Suarez over three rounds, citing her superior wrestling and size. He notes that Suarez will get Godinez down and control her, as Godinez is also a wrestler but not at Suarez's level. He mentions that the fight should be five rounds to see if Godinez can survive and force Suarez to gas, but over three rounds it's a foregone conclusion.
Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez as an underdog, believing that Tatiana Suarez is in decline after injuries and poor performances. He thinks Godinez's wrestling can keep the fight standing and that she has better striking. He acknowledges Godinez's questionable in-fight decisions but sees value at plus money.
Daniel believes Suarez is on a decline due to injuries and age, while Godinez has the wrestling to keep the fight standing and better hands. He picks Godinez to win by decision.
James picks the underdog Godinez, fading Suarez for the third time. He believes Suarez has declined and that Godinez can win a striking battle, though he acknowledges Suarez's size and fight IQ advantages.
Suarez is the best wrestler in the division and should dominate Godinez on the ground. Godinez has a slight striking edge but her wrestling is not at Suarez's level. Suarez's size and reach advantage will help her close distance for takedowns. She can grind out a decision or find a submission. The line is surprisingly low for Suarez, offering value.
Paul picks Suarez, believing her wrestling is still superior and she can control Godinez. He acknowledges her decline but thinks she has one more good performance.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez over Tatiana Suarez, though he admits it's a questionable pick. He likes Godinez's scrambles and grappling defense, and thinks Suarez's stand-up is abysmal. He believes Godinez can eke out a 29-28 decision as a slight underdog, citing Suarez's injury history and potential 'loser energy' from her husband Patchy Mix.
Zane picks Suarez, agreeing that she will dominate early and Godinez won't be able to finish her. He notes that Suarez's wrestling is too strong and Godinez's boxing isn't good enough to keep her off. He also comments that the odds are too slim and should be wider in Suarez's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 70 of 91 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:34 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 23 of 33 | 69% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 25 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 27 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 16 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 20 of 39 | 51% | 1 of 11 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 23 of 33 | 69% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 5 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 8 of 15 | 53% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 22 | 59% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.
Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.
The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 53 of 87 | 60% | 232 of 299 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 10:54 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 63 of 95 | 1 of 15 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 5:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 31 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 23 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 33 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 53 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 21 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 19 | 84% | 63 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 53 of 87 | 60% | 32 of 56 | 16 of 21 | 5 of 10 | 29 of 62 | 11 of 11 | 13 of 14 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 12 of 36 | 33% | 1 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 9 of 14 | 10 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 10 of 17 | 58% | 7 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 19 of 42 | 45% | 11 of 28 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 16 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 8 of 21 | 38% | 0 of 7 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 7 of 7 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 16 of 19 | 84% | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be a level above Zhang Weili's. He notes that Zhang has been taken down easily by lesser grapplers like Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio, as she has never gone 25 minutes, but thinks she will get a submission in the second round. He predicts a second-round submission.
Connor picks Zhang, citing her striking advantage and Suarez's questionable cardio. He thinks Zhang can use her kicks and movement to keep Suarez at range and tire her out. He notes that Suarez has never faced a five-round fight and faded in the third round against Nina Nunes. He also points out that Zhang has good takedown defense and can get back to her feet. However, he admits he could see Suarez winning if she gets top position early.
Daniel Levi mentions the co-main event where Zhang Weili defends her belt against undefeated Tatiana Suarez. He notes that the fight is a dead pick at -110 each and asks the audience whether they think Zhang Weili retains or if Suarez becomes champion. He does not express a personal opinion or pick a winner.
Suarez's smothering wrestling and improving BJJ are expected to open up a submission opportunity. Zhang has the striking advantage but will struggle to stop Suarez's chain wrestling and strength. Zhang's wrestling has improved but not enough to overcome Suarez. The pick is for Suarez to find the neck and force a submission.
Zane picks Suarez despite acknowledging Zhang's advantages in striking and cardio. He believes Suarez's wrestling will be the difference, as Zhang tends to tie up and Suarez is a better wrestler. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio and lack of five-round experience, but thinks she can get a submission or control on top. He notes that Zhang's best path is to jab and kick from range, but he doubts she will do that consistently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 25 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 23 of 49 | 46% | 3 of 20 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 27 | 40% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 30 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.
Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.
Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.
James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.
Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.
Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.
The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 37 of 43 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 5:45 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 26 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 10 of 13 | 76% | 0 of 1 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 8 | 87% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.
Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 75 of 142 | 52% | 95 of 166 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 8:16 |
| Nina Nunes | 0 | 48 of 99 | 48% | 54 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 28 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Nina Nunes | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 34 of 50 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Nina Nunes | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Nina Nunes | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 31 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 75 of 142 | 52% | 29 of 85 | 22 of 29 | 24 of 28 | 42 of 100 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 35 |
| Nina Nunes | 48 of 99 | 48% | 31 of 66 | 15 of 26 | 2 of 7 | 39 of 89 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 17 of 30 | 56% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
| Nina Nunes | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 25 of 39 | 64% | 14 of 23 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 |
| Nina Nunes | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 33 of 73 | 45% | 7 of 42 | 9 of 12 | 17 of 19 | 29 of 69 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Nina Nunes | 30 of 63 | 47% | 19 of 41 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 29 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:04 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 82 of 98 | 83% | 136 of 155 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 12:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 34 of 41 | 82% | 56 of 65 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:04 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 15 of 17 | 88% | 31 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 40 | 82% | 49 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 6 of 10 | 60% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 82 of 98 | 83% | 64 of 77 | 15 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 70 of 79 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 34 of 41 | 82% | 27 of 33 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 35 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 5 of 6 | 83% | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 15 of 17 | 88% | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 40 | 82% | 28 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 31 of 35 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Alexa Grasso | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Alexa Grasso | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 39 of 123 | 31% | 116 of 215 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 80 of 150 | 53% | 94 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 77 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 39 of 123 | 31% | 30 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 110 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 80 of 150 | 53% | 28 of 92 | 11 of 12 | 41 of 46 | 75 of 142 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 6 of 26 | 23% | 4 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 31 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 36 of 57 | 63% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 30 | 34 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.
Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.
The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.
Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.
Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 78 | 47% | 20 of 58 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 5 of 27 | 18% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 65 | 50% | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.
Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'
The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.
Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 136 | 27% | 38 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 30 of 133 | 22% | 30 of 133 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 136 | 27% | 30 of 122 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 30 of 133 | 22% | 15 of 108 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 19 | 21% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 22 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 11 of 36 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 9 of 32 | 28% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 6 of 28 | 21% | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 29 | 27% | 3 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.
The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.
Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 27 of 33 | 81% | 170 of 194 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 104 of 117 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 66 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 27 of 33 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 18 | 77% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 118 of 152 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 8:54 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 76 | 52% | 91 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 49 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 32 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 37 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 60 | 55% | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 43 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 76 | 52% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 25 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 7 of 19 | 36% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 29 | 48% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 29 | 62% | 15 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.
Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.
Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 48 of 106 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 44 of 98 | 44% | 44 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 45 of 103 | 43% | 34 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 94 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 44 of 98 | 44% | 15 of 60 | 13 of 16 | 16 of 22 | 39 of 92 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 26 | 50% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 25 of 54 | 46% | 18 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 8 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.
Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.
Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 44 of 80 | 55% | 115 of 157 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 7:12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 103 of 169 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 36 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 33 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 56 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:16 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 44 of 80 | 55% | 27 of 60 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 59 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 103 | 43% | 41 of 97 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 88 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 36 | 50% | 8 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 17 of 41 | 41% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 18 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Alexa Grasso | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 97 of 128 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 5:25 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 64 of 89 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 3:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 22 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 28 of 40 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 43 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 9 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 17 of 37 | 45% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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