UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 5"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rose Namajunas
3.5 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.38 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
1.47 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Joanna Jędrzejczyk
6.28 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.25 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.27 TD Avg
62.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Rose Namajunas - Fight History
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 51 of 133 38% 63 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 94 27% 46 of 119 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 15 of 44 34% 15 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 8 of 27 29% 15 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 18 27% 25 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
3 Natália Silva 0 28 of 62 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 37 21% 8 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 51 of 133 38% 25 of 95 8 of 14 18 of 24 50 of 132 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 26 of 94 27% 11 of 64 3 of 13 12 of 17 26 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 15 of 44 34% 10 of 32 1 of 3 4 of 9 15 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 13 of 39 33% 4 of 22 1 of 6 8 of 11 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 8 of 27 29% 4 of 22 0 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 28 of 62 45% 11 of 41 7 of 10 10 of 11 27 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 37 21% 4 of 26 1 of 6 3 of 5 8 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva, calling her faster, cleaner, and a better athlete. He praises her footwork and timing. He acknowledges Rose Namajunas's experience and fight IQ but believes Silva's youth and speed will prevail. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a likely lock.

I think over two and a half is likely the lock of the card.
"I'm going to go with the younger, faster, better athlete here, and I think that is Natalya Silva."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady believes Silva is one of the best flyweights, with elite takedown defense (92%) and great striking volume and power. He thinks Rose will struggle similar to her fight with Fiorot, and Silva will piece her up over 15 minutes for a dominant decision win.

Silva by decision
"I think Silva's going to kind of kind of piece her up over the course of 15 minutes. I think it's going to be a pretty frustrating fight for Rose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody confidently picks Natália Silva, citing her 92% takedown defense and striking volume. He believes Rose Namajunas struggles at 125 pounds and won't be able to secure takedowns. Cody expects Silva to win a unanimous decision, outworking Rose on the feet.

"I do I do have Silva to get the job done by unanimous decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that Rose Namajunas has not adapted well to flyweight. He notes that Rose's power and speed have diminished, and that she now has to outwork opponents—a style she never excelled at. Connor points out that Silva is faster, hits harder, and throws more, and that Rose's best chance (wrestling) is untested against Silva. He believes Silva's dynamism will be too much for Rose to handle.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Connor says the odds seem reasonable.
"I think it's a good matchup. I do over feel that I have to pick Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He praises Silva's confidence, well-rounded game, and impressive wins over former champions. He notes that Silva is younger, hungrier, and has speed that matches Namajunas. Vreeland believes Silva will beat Namajunas decisively and earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko.

"I'm calling a 3027 decision by Natalya Silva in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Natália Silva

James is confident in Silva, noting her superior footwork neutralizes Namajunas's best asset. He expects Silva to win via decision, possibly hurting Namajunas with kicks but not finishing her. He mentions Silva's taekwondo background and that she has cashed for him multiple times.

"Natalia Silva is literally taking away Rose's Namunis' best asset and attribute in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The host leans towards Silva by decision, praising her distance management and blitzing style. However, he finds the -410 line too wide and believes Rose Namajunas is live as a plus-310 underdog. He notes Namajunas's experience, improved grappling, and ability to counter mobile strikers. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a no-brainer and recommends betting on Namajunas for value.

Over 2.5 rounds, Namajunas moneyline recommended for betting
"minus 410 Silva is whack. That is way too far out of whack. I I am gonna lean her in terms of a prediction. Obviously, over two and a half would be a no-brainer here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Silva's speed and combination punching. He doubts Rose can get the wrestling going and believes Silva's quickness will overwhelm her. Paul sees a decision win for Silva, noting that a knockout prop is not worth the price.

"I think it just really comes down to speed. I don't know if Rose is going to be able to get the wrestling going. And on the feet, there's really nobody quicker um men or woman really out there than …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, praising her kicking game and ability to fight off the back foot. He notes that Rose Namajunas often leaves fights close and lacks offensive grappling at flyweight. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.

decision, 30-27
"Natalyia Silva is going to get this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Zane picks Natália Silva confidently, highlighting her incredible speed and high output. He notes that Silva's bad defensive habits (chin in the air) are mitigated by her speed and ability to counter, and that she has hurt every opponent she's faced. Zane argues that Rose Namajunas has lost power and speed at flyweight, and that she can no longer rely on fight-changing shots. He believes Silva's volume and pace will overwhelm Rose over three rounds.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Zane says the odds seem reasonable.
"I am going to be picking Natalia Silva. She is the coming woman in this division."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 1 25 of 86 29% 46 of 118 2 of 4 50% 0 0 6:33
Miranda Maverick 0 25 of 74 33% 52 of 108 0 of 2 0% 1 1 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 17 of 59 28% 18 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Miranda Maverick 0 20 of 58 34% 20 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 17 29% 9 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:05
Miranda Maverick 0 5 of 14 35% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:45
3 Rose Namajunas 1 3 of 10 30% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:13
Miranda Maverick 0 0 of 2 0% 10 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 25 of 86 29% 22 of 75 3 of 10 0 of 1 23 of 83 1 of 1 1 of 2
Miranda Maverick 25 of 74 33% 14 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 7 25 of 73 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 17 of 59 28% 15 of 50 2 of 8 0 of 1 16 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Miranda Maverick 20 of 58 34% 11 of 47 4 of 5 5 of 6 20 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 5 of 17 29% 5 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miranda Maverick 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 3 of 10 30% 2 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Miranda Maverick 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose because she is the better striker with superior footwork and technique. He acknowledges Miranda's wrestling threat but believes Rose can defend takedowns and out-strike her. He expresses concern about Rose's training situation but hopes she strings it together like she did against Tracy Cortez.

"Rose Namayuma should absolutely be the just better fighter across the board."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas by decision. He believes Rose is the better fighter overall, with superior striking and the ability to get takedowns against Maverick's sub-50% takedown defense. He worries slightly about Maverick's strength but notes Rose has done well at flyweight. He thinks Rose should win at least two rounds in a three-round fight.

"I'll take Rose to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Connor picks Namajunas, agreeing that Maverick is a 'Jake Matthews of women's flyweight'—athletic but aimless, with no clear idea how to win. He notes that Namajunas is much better in the clinch than she used to be and that Maverick's wrestling entries are poor. Connor believes Namajunas's speed, accuracy, and combination punching will allow her to outwork Maverick, and that Maverick's tendency to float and try things without a plan will be her undoing.

Namajunas opened at -289, now -249; Maverick opened at +214, now +220.
"I think this is just a really good style matchup for nami units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but Namajunas's striking will reign supreme. She may have issues with Maverick's strength and clinch work, but she will get into open space, land more damage, and win a clear decision.

odds comment: closer fight than the odds suggest
"This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but I expect Nama Ununas is striking to reign supreme here..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, calling her a much better technical martial artist. He notes her grappling defense and standup are superior, and she has size at flyweight. He expects a unanimous decision win, 30-27, as Rose outclasses Maverick everywhere.

"I'm going to go with Rose Namunas. She's a much better martial artist. This is a bit of a mismatch. Um a very big mismatch."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Zane picks Namajunas, citing her superior craft, movement, and jab-heavy striking as a clear advantage over Maverick's aimless, unprincipled game. He notes that Maverick lacks a clear process and often gets caught up striking when she should wrestle, while Namajunas is accurate, fast, and effective at kicking range. Zane believes Namajunas can outpoint Maverick over three rounds, as Maverick has consistently lost to fighters with a strong game plan.

Namajunas opened at -289, now -249; Maverick opened at +214, now +220. Zane thinks the line could get longer.
"I think rose is fully capable of just kind of being much craftier and more consistent than maverick and and taking a decision off of her"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 110 of 281 39% 193 of 387 2 of 8 25% 0 0 8:54
Rose Namajunas 0 94 of 245 38% 101 of 254 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 67 37% 28 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 65 35% 26 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 11 of 28 39% 48 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 93 43% 43 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Rose Namajunas 0 25 of 79 31% 25 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
5 Erin Blanchfield 0 15 of 25 60% 55 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:08
Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 19 36% 10 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 110 of 281 39% 81 of 248 15 of 16 14 of 17 103 of 269 2 of 6 5 of 6
Rose Namajunas 94 of 245 38% 68 of 212 18 of 24 8 of 9 91 of 241 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 19 of 68 27% 11 of 58 3 of 4 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 61 49% 22 of 52 2 of 3 6 of 6 30 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 67 37% 21 of 61 2 of 2 2 of 4 25 of 65 0 of 2 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 65 35% 17 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 2 22 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 11 of 28 39% 7 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 2
Rose Namajunas 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 93 43% 29 of 82 6 of 6 5 of 5 40 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 25 of 79 31% 16 of 67 8 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Erin Blanchfield 15 of 25 60% 13 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
Rose Namajunas 7 of 19 36% 6 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas confidently, calling her an all-time great and a better striker than Erin Blanchfield. He notes Blanchfield's inability to get takedowns was exposed against Manon Fiorot, and without that, she is stuck in a striking match with a superior striker. He thinks five rounds help Rose, as she can afford to lose a round if taken down. He placed a half unit bet on Rose at plus 100 (even money).

half unit on Rose Namajunas at +100
"Rose should absolutely win this fight five rounds only helps Rose because if she does get taken down in a round and gives one up she's got four more to cover the distance she's not only the pick but she …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision. He questions Erin Blanchfield's wrestling, noting her low takedown accuracy (33%) and failure to take down opponents like Fiorot and Santos. He believes on the feet, Rose is clearly superior, and even if taken down, Rose's scrambling is good. Brady likes the plus money and thinks the big cage favors Rose.

plus money
"at plus money I'm going to I'm going to take the dog here and and Rose nunas I think it's going to be a very close fight... I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas as an underdog, arguing that Blanchfield's takedown struggles against Manon Fiorot (0 for 3) and Taila Santos (0 for 14) show she can't reliably take down elite grapplers. He believes Rose's striking, footwork, and takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes Rose's experience in five-round fights and her ability to mix in takedowns herself.

"I do kind of feel like maybe the plus money on Rose Nom units is a little more warranted so I'm going to go with that and I'm going to take RADS."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Vreeland picks Erin Blanchfield to win, arguing that the line is influenced by recency bias from Blanchfield's loss to Manon Fiorot. He points out that Rose Namajunas has poor takedown defense (under 60%) compared to Fiorot's 93%, and that Blanchfield's grappling is a different level—she can take the back and submit opponents. Vreeland expects Blanchfield to pressure Namajunas, get takedowns, and potentially finish via ground-and-pound or submission.

"I'm going Aaron blanchfield to get back on track regain her hype"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win inside the distance, emphasizing her grappling advantage. He notes Rose has been taken down in recent fights and that Blanchfield's wrestling will be decisive. He believes Rose has lost some athleticism and that Blanchfield can finish via submission, likely a rear-naked choke.

wins inside the distance
"I'm taking Aaron blanchfield in this one and I actually think she gets it done inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements, and that will get her a victory over Blanchfield. She will win at least three of the five rounds by out-pointing and out-damaging Blanchfield, winning on the scorecards and positioning herself for a title shot.

"Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements and I believe that will get her a victory here over Blanchfield look for Namajunas to win at least three of the five rounds here by out pointing and out damaging Blanchfield and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul sides with Rose but is less confident, expecting a close split decision. He notes that Blanchfield's path to victory is through takedowns, but Rose has shown improved takedown defense and can win on the feet. He mentions the common opponent Jessica Andrade, where Rose won by decision and Blanchfield by submission, but sees the fight as competitive. He plans to bet the split decision prop rather than the moneyline.

split decision prop
"I expect the fight to be incredibly close on the feet on the mat and I'm going to side with rose but I don't plan on betting this but yeah I'll be looking for the split decision prop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Erin Blanchfield, calling Blanchfield overrated. He praises Namajunas's technical skills, scrambles, and wrestling reactions. He notes Blanchfield's poor performance against Manon Fiorot and believes Namajunas will win as an underdog.

"I'm going to go Rose wellt Tred fighter I don't think she's like man on fioro level but she took it to man on fioro and she broke her hand in that fight"
WIN vs Tracy Cortez
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 1 96 of 180 53% 119 of 215 5 of 5 100% 0 0 6:36
Tracy Cortez 0 58 of 198 29% 85 of 233 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 1 26 of 50 52% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 43 27% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 46 56% 27 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Tracy Cortez 0 11 of 41 26% 12 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:16
3 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 12 41% 15 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Tracy Cortez 0 2 of 9 22% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Rose Namajunas 0 11 of 28 39% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 44 27% 15 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
5 Rose Namajunas 0 28 of 44 63% 30 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
Tracy Cortez 0 21 of 61 34% 36 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 96 of 180 53% 66 of 146 17 of 20 13 of 14 93 of 175 3 of 5 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 58 of 198 29% 31 of 162 14 of 17 13 of 19 52 of 189 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 26 of 50 52% 16 of 39 4 of 5 6 of 6 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 43 27% 4 of 32 1 of 1 7 of 10 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 26 of 46 56% 16 of 33 5 of 7 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 11 of 41 26% 7 of 36 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 11 of 28 39% 8 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 44 27% 7 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 40 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 28 of 44 63% 21 of 37 6 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 21 of 61 34% 12 of 50 6 of 7 3 of 4 19 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas, citing her superior striking and overall skill. He believes Tracy Cortez's path to victory is through wrestling, but doubts she can take Rose down for 25 minutes, especially since Cortez was training for a three-round fight and now faces five rounds at elevation. He notes that Rose was taken down four times by Amanda Ribas, but Ribas used clinch tosses rather than traditional shots, which are easier to defend. Angelo plans to have multiple bets on Rose.

Plans to have a few bets on Rose.
"I got to go rose rose should win this fight she should probably dominate this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas, citing her experience at altitude, full camp, and superior striking. He notes Tracy Cortez's inactivity and short notice, and believes Rose's wrestling defense and offensive takedowns will be key. He expects a decision win for Rose.

"I think Thug Rose is a very rightful favorite here at minus 200."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Daniel Vreeland picks Tracy Cortez to upset Rose Namajunas. He argues that Cortez has a legitimate wrestling background, which historically gives Rose trouble, and that Rose is a 'hot and cold' fighter who struggles when faced with adversity. He notes Cortez's 11-fight win streak and that she was already preparing for a fight next week, so short notice isn't a major issue. He also mentions Rose's age and mileage, suggesting she may be slowing down. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and prefers the plus 185 underdog.

"I'm gonna go ahead and pick Tracy Cortez to upset Rose nunas and surprise a lot of people."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Rose Namajunas has the striking advantage and the cardio edge, especially at altitude. Cortez will land some takedowns, but over 25 minutes, Namajunas will land better strikes and even some takedowns of her own late, cruising to a decision. The line is a bit wide, but the former champion reigns supreme.

Namajunas by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide, wouldn't hate an underdog shot on Cortez
"I think from there she should be able to cruise to a decision the line for my liking a little bit too wide again I wouldn't hate anybody taking an underdog shot on Cortez but I do think the former …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Rose's full camp, altitude advantage, and five-round experience. He points out that Cortez's wrestling has been neutralized by upper-echelon opponents and that Rose's scrambling ability will nullify takedowns. He sees Rose winning by decision.

"I agree she's a rightful favorite I'm picking her to win."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 83 of 270 30% 137 of 342 4 of 8 50% 0 0 1:38
Amanda Ribas 0 93 of 188 49% 169 of 281 1 of 3 33% 0 1 6:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 16 of 47 34% 30 of 63 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Amanda Ribas 0 23 of 34 67% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
2 Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 49 30% 22 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 39 48% 43 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:00
3 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 50 36% 31 of 70 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
4 Rose Namajunas 0 10 of 39 25% 29 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 25 28% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
5 Rose Namajunas 0 24 of 85 28% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 26 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 83 of 270 30% 39 of 195 19 of 42 25 of 33 76 of 259 4 of 6 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 93 of 188 49% 45 of 124 44 of 60 4 of 4 81 of 176 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 16 of 47 34% 8 of 33 2 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 23 of 34 67% 6 of 16 16 of 17 1 of 1 16 of 27 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 15 of 49 30% 7 of 34 3 of 8 5 of 7 14 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 27 6 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 18 of 50 36% 10 of 39 3 of 5 5 of 6 15 of 44 0 of 1 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 19 of 36 52% 11 of 26 7 of 9 1 of 1 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 10 of 39 25% 3 of 28 2 of 5 5 of 6 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 25 28% 4 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 24 of 85 28% 11 of 61 9 of 18 4 of 6 23 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 12 of 36 12 of 17 1 of 1 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.

"I got to pick rose rose is going to be the pick Amanda's going to stay in her face hopefully Amanda rips her to the ground and just beats on her and breaks her and wins this fight let's have …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.

"I got to go Rose here I mean I I just think she's the much better fighter... I'm going to take rose on my un to win this fight and to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.

"I will take Rose but again there's always going to be some hesitancy there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.

"if this fight gets extended I think that her output's on the higher side as well and it's one of those things where Rose is very momentum based"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.

Namajunas by TKO (round 3); under 4.5 rounds
"I think we see Nami yunas control this fight in the Striking realm I think she stops the takedowns... and then I think we obviously see Nami unas find that knockout I'm going to call it round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.

"I got Rose as well... I'll hope that she's learned her lesson from that absolutely flat performance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.

second round rear-naked choke
"I'm going Rosen am yunas over Amanda Ribas... second round re naked choke to Rose nunas"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 58 of 225 25% 62 of 232 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Rose Namajunas 0 60 of 150 40% 60 of 152 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 18 of 88 20% 18 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Manon Fiorot 0 19 of 69 27% 23 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
3 Manon Fiorot 0 21 of 68 30% 21 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 58 of 225 25% 39 of 197 15 of 22 4 of 6 53 of 214 4 of 10 1 of 1
Rose Namajunas 60 of 150 40% 32 of 107 15 of 26 13 of 17 59 of 148 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 18 of 88 20% 14 of 82 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 56 41% 11 of 37 4 of 8 8 of 11 23 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 19 of 69 27% 11 of 55 7 of 11 1 of 3 17 of 62 2 of 7 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 15 of 40 37% 10 of 31 4 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 21 of 68 30% 14 of 60 6 of 7 1 of 1 18 of 64 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rose Namajunas 22 of 54 40% 11 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiorot (-185), Namajunas (+154)

Round 1
The bout that likely holds the greatest immediate title implications today comes in the co-main event, between two flyweights. Competing in MMA on French soil for the first time, Nice-born Fiorot (10-1, 5-0 UFC) hopes that a win over former champ Namajunas (11-5, 9-4 UFC) will propel her to the top of the weight class. On the other side of the equation, “Thug Rose” will be making her first jaunt to 125 pounds after multiple championship reigns down at strawweight. The size difference is not as significant as some might expect, and the women will have upwards of 15 minutes to state their case as elite members of the division. As referee Rich Mitchell stands by, the two ladies decide against bumping fists. Namajunas snaps out a quick right hand, and Fiorot responds with a left. Namajunas lands a low kick, and she pushes off with a side kick as Fiorot crowds her. Namajunas misses with a back fist, and Fiorot lands with a stern right hook. Fiorot stands fearlessly in front of her opponent, and she misses with a one-two and tries to catch her with a second. Namajunas slides to the side and sneak out a left hook. Fiorot catches Namajunas before the former champ can get off a combination, and she connects with a body shot when Namajunas closes the distance. Namajunas kicks low and shoots for a single, and the Frenchwoman tosses her aside with little effort. Fiorot keeps her range with a low kick and lunging jab, and her kicks are successfully keeping Namajunas at bay. Fiorot gets off a jab and a one-two, and Namajunas parries the latter. Namajunas beats Fiorot to the punch with a left hand, and she lands this same punch two more times. Namajunas kicks the lead leg, and Fiorot backs her off with short combinations of punches. Namajunas lands one kick and takes three punches off the top before she can reset. Namajunas manages to get in a single left, and Fiorot ignores it. Fiorot misses with a strike, and Namajunas slips her and connects cleanly with a left hand. As the former champ blocks a kick, she meanders forward and evades the other strikes with decent head movement. Namajunas drops down to her knees to snatch up a single, and Fiorot shuts it down and gets away. Fiorot lands cleanly with a left hand on the nose, and she bats Namajunas away with a side kick. The round ends with Fiorot jabbing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 2
Between rounds, Namajunas informs her corner that she broke her right pink finger, and partner Pat Barry says “that’s alright, you don’t need her finger.” Namajunas is not discouraged despite the potential injury, and she is ready to resume action. Namajunas gets in Fiorot’s face early with a flurry of punches, and Fiorot stays composed and does not take many strikes cleanly. Fiorot boxes Namajunas up with a few shots ending with a short right hook, and two punches send Namajunas off-balance. Namajunas topples over, and she climbs to her knees and up as Fiorot rushes at her. Namajunas fights her way out of the clinch, only to absorb a flush knee to the body. Namajunas swipes out with a left, and her strikes do not have near the impact compared to her opponent’s – and the size difference does appear to be widening the competitive gap between the two. Fiorot takes a hook kick on the nose, and she leans back to dodge a subsequent spinning wheel kick in the nick of time. Fiorot spams punches, and Namajunas evades every single one and comes back with a right hand over the top. Fiorot times a head kick as Namajunas comes in on her, and Namajunas is able to respond with a huge right hand that shakes Fiorot up at the same time Fiorot tosses a side kick. Namajunas uses the moment to pursue a takedown, but Fiorot outmuscles her and keeps herself upright before breaking free. Namajunas lands a right hand on the break, and she holds her guard high to defend against a kick. Both women swing at the same time and duck down, and their heads clack together as a sizeable cut opens on Fiorot’s right temple. Fiorot pays it no mind and tells Mitchell she is fine, and the blood flow is not presenting any issues. Namajunas times a left hand on that target, and she gets pushed back from a side kick. Fiorot sweeps the leg, and she absorbs a good right hand on the way out. Namajunas scores a short left, but Fiorot lands two back at her. Namajunas swings hard, and she does land a left hook, only for Fiorot to completely ignore it as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
There is no plan on a glove touch to start the last round, and instead Namajunas is ready to go to battle and try to pull off a comeback. Namajunas lets go with a head kick and shoots for a single, and Fiorot blocks the former and stuffs the latter. Namajunas resets and chops at the lead leg, and she darts forward with a pair of punches that whiz past the Frenchwoman. Namajunas whips a left hand over the top, and she lands another before changing levels. Fiorot will not allow herself to be taken down, and she bucks out of the posture and gets back to kickboxing range. Fiorot gets off a stomp kick to the knee, and Namajunas rushes at her opponent only to miss wide. Namajunas sticks Fiorot during an exchange, and Fiorot retaliates with a trio of punches. Fiorot comes up just short when trying to counter a leg kick, and she absorbs a flush right hand but keeps on moving. The former champ scores a right hand, but it is one-and-done as Fiorot is well away from any strikes that could possibly follow. Fiorot snipes with her jab and swiping right hook, using it to stop Namajunas from getting on the inside. Namajunas chases after Fiorot, and they trade head kicks – Fiorot’s lands much harder. Namajunas tries to cut off the cage, but Fiorot is elusive and her timing is erratic enough to not let Namajunas track her down. Namajunas dings her foe with three left hooks, and Fiorot slips but gathers herself and leans back against the wall instead of falling down. Namajunas looks for a few strikes, and Fiorot breaks off and escapes. Namajunas continues her pursuit, and Fiorot gets out of danger and watches a spin kick soar past her as time elapses.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Rose Namajunas via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo is confident Manon Fiorot dominates, citing her size, power, and volume. He notes Rose Namajunas is moving up in weight and lacks volume compared to Manon. He points out Manon has landed more strikes in each of her last five wins than Rose did in five-round fights. He has parlayed Manon with Ange Loosa.

parlayed with Ange Loosa for plus money
"I think mannon dominates this fight... I have parlayed her with Ange loosa for some plus money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Fiorot, citing her size, strength, power, and volume advantage over the smaller Namajunas moving up from strawweight. He doubts Rose can outgrapple, outvolume, or knock out Fiorot. He expects Fiorot to win a decision, though he acknowledges Rose's striking talent and calls it an interesting test.

"in terms of a pick I'm gonna pick Fiora to win this fight... fioro does get it done and get it done here by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody picks Fiorot due to size and strength advantages at flyweight, and questions Rose's motivation after a lackluster performance against Esparza. He notes Rose's striking advantages were not used in that fight and she has been off for a year. Fiorot's kicking game and French crowd support are key factors. Cody sees Rose's offensive wrestling as a potential path but doubts she can take down or hold down a strong flyweight.

"the pick will be minnow Fiero for me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, arguing that Fiorot's elusive, outside-fighting style will frustrate Rose Namajunas, who thrives in pocket boxing exchanges. He believes Fiorot will use sidekicks and movement to keep Rose at range, preventing her from letting her hands go. Levi dismisses the size narrative, stating that Fiorot is not a pressure grappler so the weight class difference is irrelevant. He expects a clear 30-27 decision, noting that Fiorot has a history of outpointing tough opponents like Mayra Bueno Silva.

Fiorot by decision
"I think Manon fioro is going to be on the outside and she's gonna make rose now my units come to her... I think she's gonna frustrate her and I see her 30-27 here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Manon Fiorot

Lucrative James is on Fiorot, having bet on her almost every fight. He thinks Fiorot is legit, top-five material, and that Rose is meeting her at the wrong time. He notes Rose's mental issues, long layoff, career-worst performance, and step up in weight. He believes Fiorot is bigger and stronger, and that Rose hasn't been finished except by Carla Esparza long ago. He likes Fiorot by points at +140, as he doesn't see a finish.

Manon Fiorot by decision (+140)
"I like Pharrell here and I like ferovia points at plus 140. I think that's a good bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

I'm leaning with Fiorot here. She has great takedown defense and a dynamic striking style with power and volume. Rose is a wild card mentally and may struggle with the weight cut to flyweight. Fiorot's footwork and ability to stay at distance should allow her to land significant strikes. However, I don't have a boatload of confidence because Rose has the experience advantage and could potentially get takedowns if she closes the distance. I think Fiorot wins by decision.

"I'm gonna lean with hero here you know she's gonna have a two inch height Advantage uh uh just an inch reach Advantage but I think it's mainly the power in which he throws and her comfortability in the Striking …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul also picks Fiorot, emphasizing her size and strength advantage. He doubts Rose's motivation and notes her inability to engage against Esparza. Paul thinks Rose's offensive wrestling could be a factor but that Fiorot's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He expects a striking affair where Fiorot's speed and kicking game prevail, likely by decision (29-28 or 30-27).

"I'm gonna go firo five round fight... at least 29 28 hopefully a 30 27."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot by TKO, citing her physicality and dangerous stand-up, while Rose Namajunas appears mentally checked out. He notes Rose's lack of activity, her poor performance against Carla Esparza, and her loss in a grappling match. He believes Fiorot will overwhelm Rose with a flurry of punches in round one.

"I'm going with man on Fiora TKO is my prediction I think Rose is checked out of the game"
LOSS vs Carla Esparza
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 136 27% 38 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 133 22% 30 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
4 Carla Esparza 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:20
5 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 37 of 136 27% 30 of 122 6 of 12 1 of 2 36 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 133 22% 15 of 108 4 of 11 11 of 14 27 of 128 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 4 of 19 21% 4 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 19 21% 2 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 22 18% 1 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 11 of 36 30% 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 9 of 32 28% 7 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Carla Esparza 6 of 28 21% 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 29 27% 3 of 22 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Carla Esparza 13 of 39 33% 7 of 30 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 31 16% 2 of 24 0 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.

"rose is the pick i'm gonna be rooting for carla i want carla to win but if five takedowns and 162 strikes landed didn't get wei lee the nod i just don't know what carla's gonna be able to do"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.

decision
"I like rose nominee units to win this fight I don't think she like wins every round I do think esparza is going to take off a round or two but I do think as far as picking a winner …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.

"i think it's a favorable fight for rose nominess for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight. He notes the under 4.5 rounds at +155 is interesting but does not bet it.
"I would take Rose if pick'em fight, I'd take Rose. Maybe minus 150 I'd consider, but I just don't want to lay chalk."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"so give me rose and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.

live betting Esparza if she gets early takedown
"i think rose rates the ship here gets back on track it's a very very straightforward fight for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.

Rose Namajunas by fourth round finish, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to have to go with rose and amy eunice and i'll go over rose nami eunis by uh fourth round finish real naked choke"
WIN vs Zhang Weili
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 86 of 168 51% 130 of 219 2 of 2 100% 0 1 7:00
Zhang Weili 0 83 of 173 47% 162 of 272 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 36 55% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhang Weili 0 22 of 38 57% 36 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
2 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 45 44% 22 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Zhang Weili 0 16 of 39 41% 21 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:38
3 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 38 36% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Zhang Weili 0 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
4 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 23 60% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:32
Zhang Weili 0 12 of 27 44% 32 of 50 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:54
5 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 26 69% 31 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Zhang Weili 0 8 of 18 44% 44 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 86 of 168 51% 57 of 131 12 of 17 17 of 20 60 of 136 6 of 6 20 of 26
Zhang Weili 83 of 173 47% 36 of 112 14 of 16 33 of 45 64 of 138 5 of 8 14 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 20 of 36 55% 11 of 25 3 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 22 of 38 57% 6 of 19 5 of 5 11 of 14 19 of 34 1 of 1 2 of 3
2 Rose Namajunas 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 5 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 39 2 of 2 2 of 4
Zhang Weili 16 of 39 41% 6 of 28 4 of 5 6 of 6 13 of 36 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Rose Namajunas 14 of 38 36% 11 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 5 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 25 of 51 49% 13 of 33 4 of 4 8 of 14 19 of 43 3 of 4 3 of 4
4 Rose Namajunas 14 of 23 60% 9 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 5
Zhang Weili 12 of 27 44% 6 of 20 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 16 0 of 2 3 of 9
5 Rose Namajunas 18 of 26 69% 14 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 9 0 of 0 14 of 17
Zhang Weili 8 of 18 44% 5 of 12 0 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo picks Zhang Weili, believing she will make adjustments after the first fight. He thinks Weili will protect her chin, push the pace, and use her boxing to outwork Rose. He notes that Rose's win came from a single head kick and that there wasn't much to analyze from the short fight. He sees Weili's power and determination as key factors.

"i'm leaning towards wayley here honestly uh i think she'll make the adjustments she'll protect her chin i think she'll push the pace in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision. He notes Zhang's power, volume, and cardio advantage, while Rose may slow down as the fight goes on. Brady thinks the first few rounds will be competitive, but Zhang's pressure and durability will wear on Rose. He also mentions Zhang's move to Fight Ready and her takedown potential, though Rose is dangerous on the ground. He expects Zhang to win down the stretch, possibly with a late finish.

win by decision
"give me zhang waili to win give me zhang wai lee to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Rose's precision striking and ability to find openings. He notes Zhang's durability but believes Rose's technique and submission game give her the edge. He compares it to Rose's first win over Joanna and sees value in the champion as an underdog.

"i agree 100 with you my friend i don't think you can turn away from it i think it's a live dog shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas to defend her belt, expressing that the line is disrespectful to Rose at plus 105. He believes Rose is the better striker with more power and setups, and that Zhang Weili may be in denial about the first fight. Levi expects adjustments from Zhang, such as calf kicks, but thinks Rose's toughness and experience in rematches (3-0) will carry her. He notes that Rose is undefeated at Madison Square Garden and that Zhang's cardio advantage may be overstated.

plus 105 underdog
"why is rose nominees the underdog in this spot i mean ... i am going to pick her to defend her belt here against wylie"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Jacob picks Rose Namajunas, saying he will never bet against her again. He believes Weili's new focus on wrestling with Henry Cejudo could backfire, as Rose has excellent jiu-jitsu. He has a moneyline bet and a submission prop on Rose. He thinks Rose has the 'it factor' and thrives in big moments.

Submission win prop; Moneyline bet at -102 (2 units)
"i'm never gonna bet against rose again man i think she's burned me so many times... i put a money line bet on her like a two unit bet i even put so i put a submission win on her …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host leans Zhang by decision, expecting her to use takedowns to sway judges in close rounds. He thinks the fight goes 25 minutes and likes the over 4.5 rounds at -125. He notes Zhang's new camp but limited time to adjust.

Over 4.5 rounds (-125), Zhang by decision (+250)
"i'm going to go wildly zhang i'm going to pick her by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose as a live underdog, noting she knocked Zhang out in the first fight and is being undervalued. He questions Zhang's wrestling improvements with Cejudo and believes Rose's precision striking and submission threat are key. He sees the line as too easy to pass up.

"rose is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her youth, reach advantage, and grappling edge. He believes Zhang's mindset will be affected by her first KO loss and the crowd booing her. The Guru predicts a third-round rear-naked choke submission, noting Namajunas' ability to bounce back and her training with Trevor Wittman.

third round rear naked choke
"I'm going to go over eunis uh mainly because."
Joanna Jędrzejczyk - Fight History
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
KO (spinning backfist) R2 2:28 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 69 of 102 67% 94 of 130 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:51
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 43 of 85 50% 44 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 47 of 66 71% 72 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:39
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 1 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 69 of 102 67% 52 of 80 12 of 15 5 of 7 29 of 59 5 of 5 35 of 38
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 43 of 85 50% 20 of 56 9 of 9 14 of 20 39 of 81 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 47 of 66 71% 41 of 58 2 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 24 4 of 4 35 of 38
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 22 of 39 56% 14 of 28 2 of 2 6 of 9 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 22 of 36 61% 11 of 22 10 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 21 of 46 45% 6 of 28 7 of 7 8 of 11 19 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo picks Zhang Weili, citing her activity and improvements since the first fight. He acknowledges Joanna arguably won the first fight and has better wins, but believes the two-year layoff will hurt Joanna's timing. He notes Zhang has added wrestling and has been fighting top competition, while Joanna has been inactive.

"i think i'm still going to stick with way lee here though and i really do think the activeness makes a difference two years away is a very long time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the close nature of their first fight and Joanna's two-year layoff. He notes that Zhang has power and has been more active, while Joanna relies on volume and movement. He expects a razor-close decision and is not confident in the judges.

"I'm going with Zhang Weili here I like she's been more active I like the power I think she's going to inflict the damage here but it's going to be a razor razor razor close fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang, believing the three-round fight favors her power and aggression. He notes Zhang's wrestling improvements with Henry Cejudo and thinks she can steal rounds with takedowns. He acknowledges Joanna's cardio but thinks Zhang's power will be decisive.

"three-round fight i think it's zhang wei lee... i think she's a rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi is on the fence for this fight. He acknowledges that the first fight was very close and that Joanna won the early rounds on the scorecards. He notes that Zhang has power and could land a big shot, but also that Joanna has better volume and defense. He mentions the layoff for Joanna could be a positive or negative, and that the fight being in Singapore might favor Zhang. He ultimately picks Zhang but says he has no idea and is not betting the fight.

fight goes the distance (mentioned by co-host as a good bet)
"you're going Joanna so I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take y lead but I mean like I ain't putting money on that I have no idea dude"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Weili has more power and her shots are more impactful. Joanna is coming off a long layoff and this is a three-round fight, which favors Weili's power. Joanna's output may not be enough to overcome the damage Weili lands. Weili also has a wrestling edge. I think Weili wins a close decision or late finish.

"I think the three-rounder more so favors while he's dying here because she can go out there and continue to throw her power shots."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joanna Jędrzejczyk

Paul takes Joanna as an underdog, citing her speed and volume. He thinks Joanna won two of the first three rounds in the first fight and that a three-round fight favors her. He acknowledges Zhang's power but believes Joanna's pace and experience can edge a decision.

Joanna by decision
"i'm taking a flyer i think on joannie and jay check... underdog number one joining energy check"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by 29-28 decision. He argues that the three-round fight favors Zhang's power over Joanna's volume, and that Zhang has improved her grappling significantly, which she may mix in. He criticizes Joanna's two-year layoff and lack of dedication compared to Zhang's focused training. He expects Joanna to win the third round but too little too late. He notes that Zhang's power shots were more effective in their first fight.

"i'm going to side with zhang whaley winning this one i think she'll mix in the grappling on you anna early"
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 165 of 408 40% 170 of 413 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:13
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 186 of 360 51% 196 of 370 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 30 of 76 39% 30 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 20 of 65 30% 23 of 68 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 32 of 62 51% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
3 Zhang Weili 0 38 of 73 52% 39 of 74 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:26
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 38 of 76 50% 40 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
4 Zhang Weili 0 40 of 91 43% 41 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 40 of 79 50% 41 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
5 Zhang Weili 0 37 of 103 35% 37 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 79 58% 47 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 165 of 408 40% 96 of 305 11 of 22 58 of 81 158 of 393 7 of 15 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 186 of 360 51% 96 of 230 32 of 47 58 of 83 171 of 342 15 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 30 of 76 39% 14 of 47 2 of 5 14 of 24 30 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 30 of 64 46% 13 of 32 2 of 7 15 of 25 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 20 of 65 30% 12 of 47 2 of 3 6 of 15 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 32 of 62 51% 15 of 43 10 of 11 7 of 8 26 of 55 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 38 of 73 52% 19 of 53 1 of 2 18 of 18 37 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 38 of 76 50% 17 of 48 8 of 12 13 of 16 37 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 40 of 91 43% 27 of 75 3 of 3 10 of 13 36 of 82 4 of 9 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 40 of 79 50% 28 of 60 3 of 5 9 of 14 34 of 72 6 of 7 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 37 of 103 35% 24 of 83 3 of 9 10 of 11 37 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 79 58% 23 of 47 9 of 12 14 of 20 44 of 77 2 of 2 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel picks Zhang Weili to retain her title, citing her power and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Joanna has been dropped multiple times in her career and has a suspect chin. He believes Zhang can win a decision by landing harder shots and using body locks and trips, which have worked against Joanna in the past.

Daniel says from a betting perspective it's a dog or pass because he's not 100% sure Zhang will replicate her performance against Andrade. He notes the line is -162 and that more money is on Joanna, which he sees as a slightly good thing.
"I'm gonna pick Weili Zhang for the win. I think it's a close decision, I think that power is gonna enter out this fight maybe she gets a knockdown somewhere along the way and I think she retains her title."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Weili has heavy hands and good ground game; she is stronger than Joanna. She can mix in takedowns to make Joanna hesitant. If Weili hurts Joanna early and often, she can finish, likely in the third or fourth round. However, if it goes 25 minutes, Joanna's volume could win rounds. Weili's power and strength are key advantages.

"I like Weili she's just so good everywhere... I'm gonna go with Weili by fourth round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing concerns about Joanna's weight cut and the damage she has taken in recent fights (e.g., against Michelle Waterson, Rose Namajunas). He believes Zhang has more power and confidence, and will finish Joanna by TKO in the first or second round.

first round or second round TKO
"I feel as though we lay Jang is gonna come in here with a mission on her mind to back up your Annie and Jay check use a lot of lateral movement a lot of head movement on the inside …"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Oct 12, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 180 of 300 60% 226 of 347 3 of 5 60% 1 0 5:34
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 58 of 160 36% 71 of 174 1 of 9 11% 1 0 4:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 31 of 39 79% 52 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:13
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 11 of 26 42% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:14
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 34 of 64 53% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 15 of 38 39% 19 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 36 of 56 64% 36 of 56 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:37
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:57
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 78 58% 50 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:18
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 12 of 38 31% 14 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 33 of 63 52% 45 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 180 of 300 60% 48 of 136 54 of 74 78 of 90 132 of 246 48 of 54 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 58 of 160 36% 25 of 84 12 of 40 21 of 36 44 of 141 14 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 31 of 39 79% 8 of 13 17 of 19 6 of 7 11 of 16 20 of 23 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 11 of 26 42% 7 of 18 3 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 16 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 34 of 64 53% 4 of 25 9 of 14 21 of 25 26 of 55 8 of 9 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 15 of 38 39% 7 of 22 3 of 7 5 of 9 12 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 36 of 56 64% 7 of 20 9 of 13 20 of 23 35 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 7 of 29 24% 2 of 13 2 of 8 3 of 8 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 78 58% 15 of 41 10 of 14 21 of 23 33 of 64 13 of 14 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 12 of 38 31% 5 of 16 4 of 17 3 of 5 10 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 33 of 63 52% 14 of 37 9 of 14 10 of 12 27 of 56 6 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 29 44% 4 of 15 0 of 3 9 of 11 12 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 89 of 191 46% 118 of 223 5 of 14 35% 0 0 8:15
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 78 of 250 31% 124 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 11 of 21 52% 20 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:21
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 15 of 40 37% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 21 of 43 48% 32 of 55 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:43
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 10 of 54 18% 12 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 16 of 56 28% 19 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 18 of 33 54% 22 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:17
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 17 of 41 41% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 20 of 56 35% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 20 of 59 33% 48 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 89 of 191 46% 50 of 135 16 of 25 23 of 31 65 of 159 16 of 24 8 of 8
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 78 of 250 31% 12 of 133 44 of 78 22 of 39 59 of 224 19 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 11 of 21 52% 6 of 12 1 of 3 4 of 6 7 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 1
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 15 of 40 37% 0 of 14 11 of 16 4 of 10 6 of 28 9 of 12 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 21 of 43 48% 15 of 37 1 of 1 5 of 5 12 of 34 2 of 2 7 of 7
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 10 of 54 18% 0 of 28 3 of 13 7 of 13 10 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 19 of 38 50% 9 of 24 7 of 10 3 of 4 16 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 16 of 56 28% 3 of 32 9 of 17 4 of 7 16 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 18 of 33 54% 9 of 20 2 of 3 7 of 10 15 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 17 of 41 41% 2 of 21 11 of 15 4 of 5 13 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 20 of 56 35% 11 of 42 5 of 8 4 of 6 15 of 48 5 of 8 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 20 of 59 33% 7 of 38 10 of 17 3 of 4 14 of 52 6 of 7 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Jul 28, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 62 of 166 37% 81 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Tecia Pennington 0 33 of 78 42% 54 of 100 0 of 10 0% 0 0 4:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 12 of 27 44% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:02
Tecia Pennington 0 1 of 3 33% 13 of 16 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:09
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 23 of 66 34% 25 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Tecia Pennington 0 20 of 42 47% 24 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 27 of 73 36% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 62 of 166 37% 21 of 113 27 of 38 14 of 15 40 of 134 22 of 32 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 33 of 78 42% 11 of 44 2 of 2 20 of 32 29 of 73 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 12 of 27 44% 4 of 16 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 13 11 of 14 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 23 of 66 34% 6 of 46 8 of 11 9 of 9 21 of 60 2 of 6 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 20 of 42 47% 8 of 23 2 of 2 10 of 17 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 27 of 73 36% 11 of 51 11 of 16 5 of 6 18 of 61 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 12 of 33 36% 3 of 19 0 of 0 9 of 14 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Apr 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 105 of 301 34% 108 of 304 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:56
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 145 of 356 40% 160 of 372 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 21 of 64 32% 21 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 25 of 60 41% 27 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rose Namajunas 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 30 of 68 44% 30 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Rose Namajunas 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 38 of 77 49% 38 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 70 32% 26 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 28 of 84 33% 41 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 105 of 301 34% 85 of 270 15 of 24 5 of 7 105 of 301 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 145 of 356 40% 64 of 257 27 of 37 54 of 62 135 of 342 10 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 21 of 64 32% 15 of 55 5 of 7 1 of 2 21 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 24 of 67 35% 10 of 51 2 of 4 12 of 12 24 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 20 of 45 44% 19 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 1 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 25 of 60 41% 7 of 36 10 of 13 8 of 11 16 of 48 9 of 12 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 19 of 60 31% 15 of 54 3 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 30 of 68 44% 13 of 45 6 of 7 11 of 16 30 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 22 of 62 35% 16 of 53 5 of 8 1 of 1 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 38 of 77 49% 19 of 55 5 of 8 14 of 14 38 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 23 of 70 32% 20 of 67 1 of 1 2 of 2 23 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 28 of 84 33% 15 of 70 4 of 5 9 of 9 27 of 82 1 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
TKO (punches) R1 3:03 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 42 11% 5 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 1 15 of 34 44% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 42 11% 5 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 1 15 of 34 44% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 5 of 42 11% 2 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 3 5 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 15 of 34 44% 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 1 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 5 of 42 11% 2 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 3 5 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 15 of 34 44% 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 1 7 of 10
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 211: Miocic vs. dos Santos 2 · May 13, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 225 of 352 63% 230 of 357 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jéssica Andrade 0 83 of 218 38% 94 of 230 2 of 10 20% 0 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 60 76% 46 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Jéssica Andrade 0 16 of 30 53% 20 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:26
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 48 of 77 62% 50 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:20
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 48 of 73 65% 48 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 44 31% 16 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 40 of 65 61% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 10 of 23 43% 13 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 43 of 77 55% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jéssica Andrade 0 26 of 68 38% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 225 of 352 63% 101 of 211 49 of 63 75 of 78 193 of 307 32 of 45 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 83 of 218 38% 51 of 163 15 of 35 17 of 20 58 of 178 24 of 39 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 60 76% 13 of 27 12 of 12 21 of 21 33 of 45 13 of 15 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 16 of 30 53% 7 of 20 4 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 24 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 48 of 77 62% 21 of 44 8 of 11 19 of 22 43 of 70 5 of 7 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 17 of 53 32% 12 of 35 2 of 13 3 of 5 13 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 48 of 73 65% 18 of 42 12 of 13 18 of 18 45 of 66 3 of 7 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 14 of 44 31% 6 of 31 4 of 8 4 of 5 11 of 39 3 of 5 0 of 0
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 40 of 65 61% 19 of 39 8 of 13 13 of 13 35 of 60 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 10 of 23 43% 6 of 18 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 17 4 of 5 1 of 1
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 43 of 77 55% 30 of 59 9 of 14 4 of 4 37 of 66 6 of 11 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 26 of 68 38% 20 of 59 3 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 53 9 of 15 0 of 0