Career Averages - Calvin Kattar
Career Averages - Andre Fili
Calvin Kattar - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 26 of 123 | 21% | 26 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 85 of 250 | 34% | 85 of 250 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Garcia | 0 | 22 of 71 | 30% | 22 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 5 of 47 | 10% | 5 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Garcia | 0 | 32 of 87 | 36% | 32 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 13 of 50 | 26% | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 31 of 92 | 33% | 31 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 26 of 123 | 21% | 21 of 116 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 85 of 250 | 34% | 52 of 208 | 23 of 29 | 10 of 13 | 85 of 249 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 8 of 26 | 30% | 4 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 22 of 71 | 30% | 11 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 5 of 47 | 10% | 5 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 32 of 87 | 36% | 19 of 72 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 13 of 50 | 26% | 12 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 31 of 92 | 33% | 22 of 83 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-120); Kattar (+100)
Round 1
On a career-long four-fight skid, Kattar (23-9, 7-7 UFC) has not gotten his hand raised since outdueling Giga Chikadze in 2022. Possibly in the later stages of his career at 37 years old, he is being matched up against a dangerous brawler in Garcia (17-5, 6-2 UFC) who is knocking on the door of ludicrous status should he clock “The Boston Finisher.” Referee Jason Herzog understands his assignment, and the fighters do too, as they touch gloves to engage.
The two featherweight strikers measure one another in the early going, with Garcia eventually leading the dance with a looping pair of punches and some awkward kicks to any target he can find. Kattar ducks and swings hard on an overhand right counter that zips right past the Jackson-Wink representative. Garcia is in the driver’s seat but his connect rate remains low a minute in. Garcia wraps a right around the guard, but his left goes wide. Woots, whoops and cries rain down throughout the Bridgestone Arena, and Garcia silences them with a long punch combination and three head kicks in a row. Kattar defends well but stumbles, and he gets back to his feet and takes a left hand on the jaw. Garcia scores with a left hand and kicks after it.
Katter misses with a huge left hand, and Garcia races through it and lands a combination on Kattar’s face. Kattar is stuck not hitting anything of note, while Garcia is scoring to the head, body and legs. Garcia spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Kattar shells up but his nose takes the brunt of it. Kattar steps in with an elbow on the chin after Garcia hits him a few times, and he partially connects with a lead hook. Garcia forces Kattar to constantly defend himself, and his power drives “The Boston Finisher” back a few steps. Kattar starts to put his jab together, and he is answered with a Jackson-Wink-style oblique kick to the knee. One more kick to the lead leg ends the tepid round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
Both featherweights trade right hands as the round begins, and Garcia stays in Kattar’s face but walks into a left hand on the jaw. Garcia shrugs it off and bounces around before settling down, planting a one-two on Kattar’s visage. Kattar’s looping punches continue to miss, as he is telegraphing his big right and Garcia is able to dodge or stay away from them. Garcia walks Kattar down, spinning with a clean back kick to the ribs, and he drives home several rib-roasters as well. This fires up Kattar, who cracks the favorite. Garcia gives it right back, happy to be getting the brawl he was seeking. Garcia beats Kattar to the jab time and time again.
Kattar employs a step-in elbow that graces Garcia’s melon, and Garcia gives him back several body shots to think about. Garcia dips and dodges the oncoming fire to crack Kattar with a huge left, smashing Kattar’s nose and forcing Kattar to paw at it. Garcia strikes the body when he sees an opening, and he skips forward to deliver two lefts on the chin. Garcia misses a right and left hook by a matter of inches, and he kicks the front of Kattar’s thigh to back him off. The body work from Garcia is getting Kattar to drop his hands, and he winds up with a bomb of a left that buzzes past the longtime vet. Garcia keeps doing work until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 3
Garcia immediately engages to start the last round, putting hands in Kattar’s face early and often. A heavy left hand drives Kattar back a ways, and he times a head kick and a spinning back fist that Garcia is able to defend. Kattar hops back and forth switching stances, but he does not engage and is just backpedaling when Garcia comes at him. Garcia reaches him with a left hand, and he loads up a subsequent bomb that nearly separates Kattar from his senses. Kattar bounces off the fence to stay afloat, and he clinches Garcia to get his head right. Garcia breaks off and chases the wounded man down, stabbing body kicks and following with liver punches that draw reactions almost every time he connects. Garcia fearlessly walks “The Boston Finisher” down, hurling one-twos and any open strike he can lob. Garcia tries for two clubbing lefts that do not get through, and he parries a front kick and pushes a left hand down the pipe.
Kattar appears to have recovered, but Garcia is not about to let him of the hook and hacks at him with a tomahawk elbow. Garcia kicks Kattar’s leg out, and he lets him back up to swing heavy leather. Kattar bites down on his mouthpiece and walks into a left hand, and he spins with an elbow that bangs square into Garcia’s temple. Garcia, blood now streaking from the bridge of his nose, boots Kattar upside the head and follows him with a left hand. He pushes Kattar back and pops him with a front kick, staying up close and looping lefts. Kattar stands him up with a right hand, and he strikes with a knee and a spinning back fist that both get part of the betting favorite. Garcia tosses windmills, and he waits for Kattar to spin so he can blast him when he plants. Garcia lets loose with a head kick and a spinning wheel kick, and Kattar knocks him back with a fierce overhand right. The two trade last strikes until time expires, and Garcia’s knockout streak has officially ended. Despite that, he still has soundly beaten a legitimate force at featherweight, and has announced himself as a new contender.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.
Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.
Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.
The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.
Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 38 of 134 | 28% | 38 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 74 of 133 | 55% | 75 of 134 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 10 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 20 of 74 | 27% | 20 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 38 of 134 | 28% | 27 of 110 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 13 | 35 of 128 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 74 of 133 | 55% | 53 of 104 | 5 of 9 | 16 of 20 | 74 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 26 of 46 | 56% | 16 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 11 | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 10 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 27 of 46 | 58% | 20 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 20 of 74 | 27% | 15 of 63 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 68 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 21 of 41 | 51% | 17 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-395), Kattar (+310)
Round 1
Records are meant to be broken, and torches are meant to be passed. It is not a guarantee of either, but rather that with enough time, everything moves forward. Itching to see if the featherweight division has passed him by entirely, 36-year-old striker Kattar (23-8, 7-6 UFC) had had a tough go of it since his fateful encounter with Max Holloway in 2021. On the other side of that metric is Zalal (16-5-1, 6-3-1 UFC), who bounced out and back into the UFC only to find himself on a solid run of three straight submissions. Whether Kattar can impose adequate resistance or be the fourth in that line, referee Dan Miragliotta will oversee it all from start to finish. Gloves are touched, and both men want to start fairly measured. Picking their shots with jabs and low kicks—a pace that has been consistent for many of the fights on this card—Zalal aims a few more times at the front leg before going up high. Zalal jabs and moves, with Kattar giving chase but not cutting him off or cornering him. Zalal is able to strafe to either side, poking with his strikes and not taking much back. They both flash jabs at the same time, and it is Zalal who follows up with a one-two. The Moroccan is comfortable at his own distance, outshooting the boxer and marking his face up with power punches. Zalal picks a jab to open up a step-in knee, and Kattar walks him down but is stuck in first gear. Zalal reaches his man with a long right hand, and they try to trip one another at the same time. Kattar buzzes the hair with a huge overhand right, and Zalal pecks at him with a left hook before zipping away. Zalal measures another knee up the middle, and Kattar’s chin has no trouble holding up. Kattar puts a little more mustard behind some punches, and Zalal is forced to book it to the side so he does not get hurt. Zalal keeps moving, Kattar keeps chasing and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Round 2
Fists are tapped together before they are traded in Round 2, and they let their jabs fly early. Zalal shoots in for a double, and Kattar easily stuffs it and turns to the side to break away. Zalal jabs the body and then the head, and his head movement keeps him from taking unnecessary shots. Zalal shifts to one direction, then pivots the other way, and he throws out a takedown to keep Kattar guessing. Zalal jabs Kattar up, and his leg kicks mixed in are repeatedly effective. Zalal steps in with a high knee that bounces off the eyebrow, and he checks a kick that flies his way. Zalal splits the guard with a jab and rips a kick to the ribs, and he does not slow “The Boston Finisher.” Kattar follows Zalal around the Octagon, with Zalal doing full rotations and then some while Kattar tries and fails to track him down. Kattar drops low to shoot a faked takedown, and Zalal just misses with an uppercut. “The Moroccan Devil” rifles off a kick to the side, and he chains a few jabs behind it. Kattar reaches him with his own body kick, but it is one-and-done as he is primarily headhunting with jabs. Kattar checks a kick and maintains Zalal’s respect with a scooping right hand over the shoulder, and he appears irritated that he cannot track and lock Zalal down. The horn sounds with Kattar lunging at air.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Round 3
There is a presumptive final glove touch leading into the last round, and Kattar has listened to his corner and is pressing the action even harder than before. Kattar’s chases have turned into borderline jogging sessions, with Zalal rapidly springing from side to side to evade attack. Kattar tries to time an uppercut, and he gets his hands on Zalal at least once in a flurry before Zalal rushes away. Kattar scores a low kick, checks one back and drops to his knees to defend and crawl away from a takedown. Kattar gets up and sprints towards Zalal with looping left hands, and Zalal pecks back with jabs. Kattar sells out and marches through a few strikes to bash Zalal in the cheek with an elbow, and Zalal’s expression changes from light-hearted to one a bit more serious. Zalal keeps hurrying away to one side, and Kattar is tracking him and winding up with big power. Zalal senses danger and slides away, marking up Kattar’s face and swelling up his right eye. Kattar reaches and connects cleanly on Zalal, who stumbles to the side and is no worse for wear. Kattar is buzzing missiles past his intended target, with Zalal doing nothing but running away while Kattar is hellbent for leather. Zalal occasionally sticks out a jab, but over the last few minutes he has been backpedaling even more than usual—drawing boos and questions of what the rule of timidity is for, if a fighter can back away from engagements for minutes at a time without being called on it. Kattar cannot get the home run strike he is looking for, and when the fight wraps, he is understandably disappointed that he got outhustled.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)
The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is extremely confident in Youssef Zalal, calling him his 'most confident pick on this card.' He highlights Zalal's momentum, improved wrestling and submissions, and Calvin Kattar's inability to defend takedowns. He also notes that Kattar's team (New England Cartel) has not proven they can stop takedowns, so he fades them against any wrestler.
Big Brady picks Zalal by second-round submission, citing Zalal's recent finishing streak and improved aggression. Kattar is 36, on a losing streak, and had a terrible performance against Aljamain Sterling. Zalal has a grappling path and can also win on the feet with movement. He expects Zalal to take down Kattar and submit him.
Connor picks Youssef Zalal, emphasizing Zalal's newfound confidence and flexibility. He notes that Zalal has turned a corner, becoming a more dynamic fighter who can create and take advantage of openings. Connor compares Zalal's development to a sumo wrestler who has found his center, and believes Zalal's adaptability marks him as a potential elite fighter. He acknowledges Kattar's durability and slow-start style but thinks Zalal's improved wrestling and ability to recover from difficulty will be key.
Lucrative James is confident Youssef Zalal will win and cover the -400 price tag. He believes Zalal is the better striker, kickboxer, grappler, and wrestler everywhere except pure boxing, where Kattar has an edge. He highlights Zalal's elite footwork and defensive skills, noting that even Ilia Topuria struggled to land clean on him. He expects Zalal to outclass Kattar on the outside with jabs and leg kicks, and predicts a 30-27 decision. He dismisses the idea of betting Kattar as a value underdog, stating the narrative that Kattar is washed is correct.
Zalal is the better fighter with momentum. He will remain competitive on the feet and then get the fight to the ground, showcasing his aggressive submission approach. He is more aggressive than Sterling, who couldn't finish Kattar, and will find a submission.
The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal over Calvin Kattar, citing Zalal's ability to mix it up with wrestling, low kicks, and boxing. He notes Kattar's recent losses, injuries, and susceptibility to leg kicks. He believes Zalal will chew up Kattar's legs, grapple, and win a decision, possibly with a 10-8 round.
Zane picks Youssef Zalal confidently, citing Zalal's transformation into a more confident, aggressive, and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Zalal has developed killer instinct, recovers well from difficulty, and has incorporated wrestling effectively into his flow. Zane contrasts this with Calvin Kattar's slow starts and recent losses to elite fighters, suggesting Kattar may have hit a wall stylistically. He believes Zalal is primed for a run and that this fight is a great opportunity for him to prove he's a top-10 fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 89 of 128 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 10:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 16 of 35 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 30 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 43 of 56 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 8 of 29 | 27% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Calvin Kattar | 39 of 71 | 54% | 12 of 40 | 15 of 17 | 12 of 14 | 23 of 46 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 6 of 23 | 26% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Calvin Kattar | 15 of 33 | 45% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 14 of 20 | 70% | 4 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-170), Kattar (+142)
Round 1
The storied rivalry of Boston vs. New York continues with a featherweight contest pitting “The Boston Finisher” Kattar (23-7, 7-5 UFC) against former bantamweight champ Sterling (23-9, 14-4 UFC). This will be a sink-or-swim moment for the New York-based funk-style wrestler, as he jumps into the deep end in his new weight class. The fighters will have 15 minutes or less to prove their case as contenders at 145 pounds, while referee Jason Herzog watches over every step of the way. Fists are not bumped, and instead Sterling wants to crowd forward and start attacking. Sterling reaches out with side kicks to the knee, and Kattar skirts out of the way a few times to take the sting out of them. Sterling wings a right hand that catches his foe on the side of the head, and Kattar stands form and moves away to check a low kick and push out his own jab. Kattar whips a head kick up and nearly clears the shoulder, but Sterling pushes past it and tries to tie him up. Kattar tosses him aside and slowly walks him down. Sterling fakes dropping down for a leg, and he fires off two wide hooks. A high kick from Sterling misses the mark, but several low kicks connect in succession. Sterling continues chipping away from afar with low kicks or the occasional one to the body, and he keeps Kattar from doing much. Sterling shoots in for a single, lifting Kattar’s leg up, but Kattar defends by scoring several punches up close. On Sterling’s second attempt, he leverages “The Boston Finisher” down to the canvas. Kattar pushes on the back of the head to stand back up, and Sterling lifts him off the ground to find a better angle to approach. Kattar leans with his back to the wall, and Sterling sneaks a single hook in as he methodically looks to take the back. Kattar muscles his way upright, and Sterling hits a quick mat return of sorts. Sterling wrenches Kattar all the way down to the ground, and he continues to set up his back take. Sterling ducks down, releasing the grip, so he can let loose a right hand over the top. Kattar sheds him, and he gets kicked in the ribs on the way out. Sterling pushes off his foe’s knee when Kattar advances, and he spins a spinning back fist as Kattar continues to walk him down. Sterling’s awkward movement and takedown efforts shut most of Kattar’s offense down, and Sterling manages to secure a single-leg takedown and climb on top to conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 2
Sterling commences the round with a low kick, and he kicks the other side to trip Kattar up when Kattar tries to throw a punch. Sterling chains a head kick into a level change, and he backs Kattar to the wire and drives a knee to the chest. Sterling trips Kattar’s other leg up to sit him down, and the audience starts to boo Sterling’s efforts. Sterling has a single deep, and he appears to motion or nod to Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg, who is sitting cageside. Sterling gets Kattar all the way down, only for the Massachusetts native bounce back to his feet in short order. Sterling keeps after a single until there is no way in, and he opts to split Kattar’s legs far apart against the fence to disrupt his balance. When that too does not result in a change in position, Sterling knees the thigh several times and tries to impose his body weight to drag Kattar down. Sterling has a knee brush on the cup of his foe, but Kattar signals he is fine. Sterling clings to his man until he slides off the side, and he dodges a front kick and advances with a trio of punches. Sterling retreats, circling away from anything Kattar tries to reach him with, until he kicks low and aims body shots. The punches from Sterling lead to a level change, where he completes an easy double to rend Kattar to the floor. Sterling moves to side control and stays there, where he holds Kattar down and thwarts any potential offense coming back his way. Sterling continues to grind in the position until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 3
Sterling practically races out of his corner, throwing looping punches and a high kick until he closes in and grips hold of his adversary. Sterling chucks Kattar down to the mat without much effort, and Kattar posts off his arms to push himself back up. Sterling grapples him from behind, where he pushes Kattar to the wall with a hook in from behind. Kattar fights off the back take to turn himself to the fence, and Sterling switches up for a single. Kattar hangs on, and Sterling lowers him down to the ground comfortably. The crowd is not amused by Sterling’s strategy, and they let him have it as time ticks off the clock. Herzog asks Sterling to do more than hold in this position, and Sterling answers by lifting Kattar’s legs up to scoot him away from the cage wall and put him in a more horizontal position. Sterling keeps smothering until he sets up an arm-triangle choke, and he considers stepping over to one side but opts to go to the other instead to maintain control. Sterling knees the side a few times, and Kattar explodes to his knees and stands up. Sterling uses all of his might, lifting “The Boston Finisher” in the air and slamming him in the mat in a maneuver reminiscent of a pro wrestling powerbomb. The slam hurts Kattar, and Sterling recognizes this and tries to pound his damaged man out. Kattar manages to gather his thoughts as Sterling lays into him, and he grips hold of the waist to keep Sterling from landing anything especially harmful. Sterling attempts to posture up, and Kattar follows him by sitting up, ignoring any offense landing on his ribs. Sterling turns a potentially guillotine choke to a brabo choke, and Kattar sits out of it. Sterling drops hammers right until the end, putting a stamp on a clear-cut dominant performance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo slightly leans Aljamain Sterling due to Kattar's 18-month layoff and knee surgery, which could cause ring rust. He notes Sterling's takedown accuracy is poor but his relentless wrestling may be enough. He acknowledges Kattar is the better striker and if he stuffs takedowns, he wins. He calls it razor thin at 51-49.
Cody sees this as a live underdog spot. He notes Sterling's wrestling may not translate to 145 lbs, as his grappling diminishes against bigger opponents. Sterling has been reluctant to shoot takedowns, as seen against Sean O'Malley, and was knocked out. Kattar has 91% takedown defense in the UFC, stuffing attempts from wrestlers like Dan Ige and Josh Emmett. Cody believes Kattar's volume and power advantage will be key, and if he stuffs takedowns, he can outpoint Sterling. He also mentions Sterling's mentality of wanting to grind out boring fights, which may not impress judges in a hot Vegas crowd.
Connor also picks Kattar with a cloud of question marks. He notes that Sterling is a creative takedown artist but moving up in weight against a big featherweight. Connor points out that wrestlers moving up rarely succeed, and Kattar's defensive wrestling has been solid. He also mentions that Kattar is a slow starter but has power and size advantages.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Calvin Kattar as a dog, citing his boxing advantage and takedown defense. He acknowledges Sterling's grappling threat but believes Kattar's size and striking can keep the fight standing. Vreeland is concerned about Kattar's injury layoff and Sterling's experience, but sees value in the underdog.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it's a really good fight and he is excited to see how Aljamain Sterling bounces back from losing his bantamweight title now fighting at featherweight. He does not give a prediction.
Kattar holds a striking advantage and will touch up Sterling from distance. He will shut down takedown attempts and batter Sterling on the feet, winning a decision. Sterling's featherweight debut will be tough.
Paul picks Kattar as a dog, citing the weight change for Sterling and Kattar's takedown defense. He notes that few have tried to wrestle Kattar, and those who did (Dan Ige, Josh Emmett) had little success. Paul thinks if Sterling can't get takedowns, it becomes a competitive standup fight where Kattar has more power. He also mentions Sterling's recent knockout loss and his apparent mental state, questioning his motivation. Paul believes Kattar can keep the fight standing and win a decision or even get a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win, citing Kattar's long layoff and leg injury. He believes Sterling's grappling will be too much for Kattar, especially targeting the injured rear leg with single legs. He expects Sterling to either finish or ride out a decision.
Zane picks Kattar despite many question marks. He notes that Kattar is a big featherweight with power, and Sterling is moving up for the first time. Zane argues that wrestlers moving up rarely look their best, and Sterling's inefficient style may not translate well. He also points out that Kattar has faced few dedicated wrestlers, but Sterling's first fight at 145 could be a disadvantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 14 of 58 | 24% | 14 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 28 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arnold Allen | 0 | 14 of 57 | 24% | 14 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Arnold Allen | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Allen | 14 of 58 | 24% | 5 of 47 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 28 of 67 | 41% | 21 of 55 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arnold Allen | 14 of 57 | 24% | 5 of 46 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 27 of 65 | 41% | 21 of 54 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | |
| 2 | Arnold Allen | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The two ranked fighters on this fight card – in terms of listings on Sherdog – come to blows in its main event, as impressive technical boxer Kattar (23-6, 7-4 UFC) throws down with the streaking Allen (18-1, 9-0 UFC), who has won all nine of his trips to the UFC cage. Whether he can go 10-0 and put himself on the shortlist for championship contention in the logjammed featherweight category, he will have to get through “The Boston Finisher” first. The stakes are high, and referee Herb Dean is bringing his A-game to the headliner. Gloves are gladly touched, and it’s on with the show. Both men hunt for their range as they face off in alternating stances, pushing out jabs that bump into the other. Allen scores first with a low kick, and he lands a second as Kattar skirts out of the way. Kattar splits the guard with a jab, and Allen ignores it to double down on the calf kick. The defenses are solid thus far, with low accuracy rates and very active blocks, and as a result, they do not sit down on anything of note. Allen scores a single straight left, and Kattar responds with a snapping jab. When Kattar looks to double up on his jab, Allen settles for two kicks including one to the side. Kattar rushes forward with a clean one-two, and Allen shakes it off and walks right into a low kick. Allen gives chase but hits nothing but air, and Kattar pokes with his toes on the midsection. Allen knocks his man a step back with a left hand, and when Kattar attempts to reply, he kicks the upper thigh. Allen has a left hand get around the guard, and he chains several punches together to shake Kattar up. As Kattar backs off, Allen picks it up briefly, but he lets go before Kattar can lean on heavy counters. Allen lands a one-two across the bow, and Kattar largely uses the jab to respond. Allen scores several left hands that get Kattar’s attention, and Kattar’s face has begun to turn red. Allen comfortably lands another left hand, and he stays moving and circles fast. Kattar leaps in the air with a kick and lands awkwardly, and his right knee blows out as he falls to the ground. Allen leaps on top to strike, and he moves to set up a brabo choke but cannot secure it before the round ends. It will be interesting to see if Kattar can make it out of his corner for the second frame given the obvious injury he suffered.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 2
Dean calls in the doctor before the round begins, and Kattar states that he is good to go. Kattar walks around gingerly but he has his balance and can continue. Allen marches forward, knowing what his clear path to victory is, and he lashes out.
“Almighty” unleashes one almighty leg kick to the lead leg of his opponent, and as Kattar attempts to check it, his right knee buckles and gives out beneath him. Kattar falls to the ground in agony and Allen does not go in for the kill as he knows the fight is over. Dean steps between them just to make sure,
and the medical staff races in immediately after the stoppage to tend to the downed Kattar. This is an extremely unfortunate ending to this featherweight headliner, and a difficult pill to swallow for the Brit, who notches his 10th UFC win in a row. Allen is crestfallen, not just because his opponent suffered an injury, but because he states that he does not want to win like that. In his post-fight interview, Allen is put on the spot by commentator Michael Bisping, in which he calls for an interim title shot should champ Alexander Volkanovski move up in weight and be away from the division for a time. He does not call for a specific opponent, although potential options could include Josh Emmett or Yair Rodriguez. If that should come together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Arnold Allen def. Calvin Kattar R2 0:08 via TKO (Knee Injury)
Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by decision. He argues that Kattar's volume and pressure will be too much for Allen, who has shown low output and cardio issues in three-round fights. He notes that Kattar has never been knocked down and has gone five rounds in his last four fights, while Allen has never seen a fourth round. He believes Allen will need to hurt Kattar to win, which is unlikely given Kattar's durability.
Cody argues that Arnold Allen is a low-output fighter who has been carried by close decisions and flashy finishes against declining competition. He points to Allen's low significant strike totals in many fights and notes that Calvin Kattar has landed over 100 significant strikes in his last four fights, has a cast-iron chin, and superior technical boxing and work rate. Cody expects Kattar's volume and five-round experience to wear Allen down over the distance, likely resulting in a close decision win.
Daniel Levi picks Arnold Allen, citing his versatility, southpaw stance with an outside calf kick, and ability to win early rounds. He notes Allen's experience against tough competition and his own money train on Allen. He respects Kattar's durability and iron will but questions the cumulative damage from recent fights. He got Allen at +110 and is confident in the pick, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if Allen fatigues.
Jacob picks Arnold Allen but is scared to death. He notes Allen's counter-striking and wrestling should be key, but Kattar is a better boxer and can mix in wrestling. Jacob worries about Allen facing adversity for the first time. He calls it a coin flip.
Kattar's volume and combination striking will be too much for Allen, who tends to be low-volume and waits for moments. Allen's explosive win over Hooker was against a compromised opponent. Kattar has five-round experience and should outwork Allen over 25 minutes. The plus money on Kattar is excellent value.
Paul agrees with Cody that volume is the deciding factor, noting that Kattar is obscenely durable and has five-round experience. He mentions a prop on Prize Picks for Arnold Allen over 0.5 takedowns, expecting Allen to mix in wrestling but not being a great wrestler. Paul says he'll probably end up with money on Calvin Kattar on Saturday, indicating a betting interest.
The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar over Arnold Allen, despite expecting Allen to look great early and possibly break Kattar's nose. He doubts Allen's finishing ability and notes Allen tends to slow down in later rounds, as seen against Sadiq Yusuff. He believes Kattar's experience fighting with a broken nose and his body work will pay off, predicting Kattar wins rounds 3-5 via decision or late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 130 of 375 | 34% | 131 of 376 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 107 of 332 | 32% | 107 of 332 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 19 of 66 | 28% | 19 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 41 of 106 | 38% | 41 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 21 of 80 | 26% | 21 of 80 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 34 of 86 | 39% | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 130 of 375 | 34% | 114 of 351 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 130 of 375 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 107 of 332 | 32% | 73 of 286 | 26 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 106 of 330 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 14 of 39 | 35% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 11 of 35 | 31% | 8 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 22 of 78 | 28% | 20 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 26 of 73 | 35% | 19 of 63 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 19 of 66 | 28% | 18 of 62 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 27 of 77 | 35% | 18 of 65 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 41 of 106 | 38% | 35 of 98 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 106 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 21 of 80 | 26% | 13 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 34 of 86 | 39% | 29 of 79 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 22 of 67 | 32% | 15 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.
Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.
Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.
Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 1 | 144 of 402 | 35% | 157 of 418 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 3:42 |
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 128 of 347 | 36% | 129 of 348 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 17 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:19 |
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 28 of 81 | 34% | 28 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 38 of 99 | 38% | 38 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 25 of 87 | 28% | 25 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 36 of 102 | 35% | 36 of 102 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Calvin Kattar | 1 | 51 of 125 | 40% | 51 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 32 of 92 | 34% | 32 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 144 of 402 | 35% | 127 of 369 | 13 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 135 of 390 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 10 |
| Giga Chikadze | 128 of 347 | 36% | 94 of 297 | 27 of 41 | 7 of 9 | 127 of 344 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Giga Chikadze | 8 of 19 | 42% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 28 of 81 | 34% | 26 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Giga Chikadze | 38 of 99 | 38% | 30 of 89 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 25 of 87 | 28% | 22 of 78 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Giga Chikadze | 22 of 67 | 32% | 18 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Calvin Kattar | 36 of 102 | 35% | 32 of 94 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Giga Chikadze | 28 of 70 | 40% | 20 of 57 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 67 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Calvin Kattar | 51 of 125 | 40% | 45 of 115 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 48 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Giga Chikadze | 32 of 92 | 34% | 22 of 76 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chikadze as the safe pick, citing his phenomenal striking, kicks, and range management. He notes Kattar is a live underdog with excellent boxing and a wrestling background that could pose problems if he pressures. He mentions possibly sprinkling a bet on Kattar.
Big Brady admits he has been a Giga Chikadze hater but acknowledges Giga's improvements, especially his cardio in the Omar Morales fight. He notes Giga has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in the past, while Calvin Kattar has a steel chin and absorbs strikes. Brady expects Giga to win the first three rounds and take a decision, but is hesitant due to the five-round distance and Kattar's durability. He does not like the moneyline at -233 and would not bet it.
Cody picks Giga Chikadze, emphasizing his clean kickboxing and ability to dictate range with kicks. He notes Kattar struggles against longer opponents and that Giga's cardio looked solid in recent fights. He worries about Giga's takedown defense but doubts Kattar will wrestle. He suggests betting Kattar live after the second or third round if he survives the early onslaught.
Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win and be the first to finish Calvin Kattar via strikes. He argues that Kattar is a one-dimensional boxer with a negative strike differential, and that Giga's diverse striking—especially body kicks and head kicks—will be too much. He notes Giga has improved his cardio and grappling, citing his anaconda attempt on Barboza and brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Levi acknowledges Kattar's toughness and right hand but believes Giga's precision and power will prevail. He placed 5 units on Giga at -215.
The host believes Giga Chikadze's kick-heavy game plan will be the key to victory, targeting Calvin Kattar's legs which have historically been a weakness. He notes that Kattar is the better technical boxer, but Chikadze's diverse kicking attacks (leg, body, head) and ability to switch targets will slow Kattar down. The host is confident Chikadze can implement this strategy effectively, though he acknowledges the fight could go the distance if Kattar absorbs the kicks and keeps moving forward. He ultimately picks Chikadze by decision, but also considers an inside-the-distance finish possible.
Paul leans toward Giga Chikadze as the better striker, noting that if the fight stays at kicking range, Kattar will get torn up. He acknowledges Kattar's boxing and pressure but believes Giga's kicks and range control are decisive. He mentions the line is close to accurate but doesn't love the -235 price. He suggests Kattar might have a path via wrestling, but considers it unlikely.
The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze to win by decision, citing Chikadze's superior kicking game and Kattar's well-known vulnerability to leg kicks, as exposed by Renato Moicano. He notes that Kattar is a slow starter who struggles with kicks, and coming off a year-long layoff after taking massive damage against Max Holloway, he expects Kattar to be even more hesitant early. Chikadze's activity (three fights in the past year) and improved takedown defense are also factors, as Kattar is unlikely to wrestle. However, he acknowledges Kattar is a good underdog and could pull off an upset if he survives the early kicking onslaught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 445 of 744 | 59% | 447 of 746 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 133 of 283 | 47% | 134 of 284 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 56 of 108 | 51% | 56 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 89 of 164 | 54% | 89 of 164 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 75 of 139 | 53% | 77 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 141 of 191 | 73% | 141 of 191 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 34 of 71 | 47% | 34 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 84 of 142 | 59% | 84 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 445 of 744 | 59% | 274 of 553 | 117 of 133 | 54 of 58 | 439 of 737 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 133 of 283 | 47% | 99 of 237 | 16 of 23 | 18 of 23 | 129 of 279 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 56 of 108 | 51% | 30 of 75 | 15 of 20 | 11 of 13 | 56 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 24 of 47 | 51% | 13 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 89 of 164 | 54% | 53 of 127 | 25 of 25 | 11 of 12 | 87 of 161 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 20 of 48 | 41% | 14 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 75 of 139 | 53% | 53 of 111 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 9 | 73 of 137 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 29 of 59 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 28 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 141 of 191 | 73% | 89 of 135 | 45 of 48 | 7 of 8 | 139 of 189 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 34 of 71 | 47% | 27 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 84 of 142 | 59% | 49 of 105 | 19 of 21 | 16 of 16 | 84 of 142 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 26 of 58 | 44% | 20 of 48 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by decision. He notes that Holloway has only lost to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier, McGregor) and that Kattar is a big step up in competition. He highlights Kattar's poor striking defense, absorbing more than he lands (5.66 vs 5.01), which is a red flag against Holloway's volume. He also mentions Holloway's motivation after two losses and that he looked great in his last fight. He believes Kattar's only path is a knockout, but Holloway hasn't been knocked out in 27 fights.
Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar for the upset, citing Kattar's power and ability to land hard shots that could sway judges. He notes Holloway's ego and emotional issues may have cost him the Volk rematch, and that Holloway absorbs many head strikes. He believes Kattar doesn't need to match volume but land the cleaner, harder shots over five rounds.
Kattar is the more technical striker with crisp hands and a piston-like jab. He matches Holloway in height and reach, which neutralizes Holloway's typical range advantage. Holloway has been hurt in past fights and Kattar has the power to finish. Kattar's cardio held up in a five-round fight against Dan Ige, and his New England Cartel camp is on a hot streak. The main concern is Holloway's volume, but Kattar's cleaner striking should win rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Calvin Kattar, citing Holloway's improved kicking game, five-round experience, and youth. He notes Kattar's broken nose as a major vulnerability, expecting Holloway to target it with jabs. He predicts Holloway will win four rounds to one, with Kattar taking the first round before Holloway makes adjustments. He also questions Kattar's KO power, noting he hasn't faced a chin like Holloway's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 105 of 260 | 40% | 107 of 262 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 84 of 218 | 38% | 87 of 221 | 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 21 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 22 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 28 of 55 | 50% | 29 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 105 of 260 | 40% | 70 of 211 | 19 of 32 | 16 of 17 | 95 of 236 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 21 |
| Dan Ige | 84 of 218 | 38% | 37 of 150 | 30 of 46 | 17 of 22 | 82 of 216 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 20 of 46 | 43% | 11 of 34 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
| Dan Ige | 13 of 36 | 36% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 15 of 39 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 18 of 45 | 40% | 7 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 21 of 63 | 33% | 14 of 52 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 20 of 49 | 40% | 7 of 29 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Calvin Kattar | 21 of 57 | 36% | 12 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Dan Ige | 16 of 36 | 44% | 10 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Calvin Kattar | 28 of 55 | 50% | 20 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 8 |
| Dan Ige | 17 of 52 | 32% | 6 of 36 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win, noting that the five-round fight favors Kattar's superior cardio. He believes Dan Ige will struggle to get takedowns due to Kattar's 77% takedown defense, and that Ige's cardio is questionable even in three-round fights. He predicts a finish in the fourth or fifth round, calling Kattar the 'Boston Finisher' and referencing his nasty elbow in his last fight.
Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar to finish Dan Ige, citing Kattar's best hands in the division and his ability to maintain pressure over five rounds. He believes Ige may have early success but Kattar will take over and knock him out, possibly earning a title shot.
The Guru picks Calvin Kattar, highlighting his impressive wins over Jeremy Stephens, Josh Emmett, Shane Burgos, and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Kattar's jab and power will be key, and that Dan Ige lacks the power to knock him out. He predicts Kattar may lose the first round due to Ige's volume but will adjust and land a big shot for a TKO in round 2. He also notes Ige's underrated grappling but thinks Kattar's takedown defense is solid.
Andre Fili - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 141 | 43% | 70 of 154 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0:59 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 94 of 169 | 55% | 103 of 179 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:11 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 34 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 32 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 41 of 61 | 67% | 43 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 141 | 43% | 46 of 121 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 61 of 139 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Delgado | 94 of 169 | 55% | 37 of 99 | 34 of 47 | 23 of 23 | 83 of 153 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 19 of 39 | 48% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Delgado | 23 of 46 | 50% | 7 of 26 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 18 of 39 | 46% | 16 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Delgado | 30 of 62 | 48% | 9 of 35 | 15 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 49 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 25 of 63 | 39% | 15 of 53 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Delgado | 41 of 61 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his spectacular striking and talent. He acknowledges Delgado's takedown defense issues but dismisses them because 'Las Vegas doesn't care about wrestling.' He notes that Andre Fili has been wrestling more lately but chooses not to warn viewers, implying that wrestling won't be scored heavily.
Big Brady picks Jose Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He loves Delgado's power and aggression, and criticizes Fili's chin and striking defense (51%). He believes Delgado will come forward with reckless abandon and knock Fili out early, calling it the best fight on the card.
Cody picks Delgado confidently, citing his knockout power and improved cardio. He notes Fili's path is wrestling, but Delgado's knees and takedown defense are deterrents. He expects Delgado to catch Fili eventually.
Connor picks Delgado, agreeing that Fili will get caught taking pictures. He notes Delgado's flow state striking and that Fili's defensive habits make him vulnerable to being timed.
James picks Rolando Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He believes Delgado's dynamic striking, speed, and power will be too much for the older Fili, who has been knocked out early in recent fights. He notes that if Delgado doesn't finish early, Fili can compete over three rounds, but his prediction is a round one stoppage.
The host picks Delgado to win by knockout, citing his power and speed. He believes Delgado's striking will be too much for Fili, who is inconsistent and aging. However, he is hesitant about the high price and would prefer a line closer to -185. He suggests looking at the KO prop if it offers value.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Delgado's power and the old guard being replaced. He thinks Fili's wrestling path is possible but Delgado is working on it. He expects Delgado to win.
The Guru picks Jose Delgado, citing his finishing ability and size. He thinks Fili is finishable and may switch off in clinch exchanges, where Delgado can land elbows or knees. He predicts a nasty finish, noting Delgado's previous wins over Connor Matthews and Destroyer.
Zane picks Delgado, citing his fluid combination punching and ability to catch Fili when he gets predictable. He notes Fili tends to get finished when facing dynamic finishers, and Delgado is a natural puncher.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 64 of 182 | 35% | 74 of 193 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 83 of 174 | 47% | 95 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 64 | 45% | 29 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 23 of 69 | 33% | 23 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 30 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 64 of 182 | 35% | 52 of 164 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 62 of 179 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 83 of 174 | 47% | 49 of 130 | 8 of 13 | 26 of 31 | 69 of 157 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 22 of 63 | 34% | 19 of 56 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 29 of 64 | 45% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 15 | 28 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 23 of 69 | 33% | 18 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 29 of 56 | 51% | 17 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 11 | 27 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 19 of 50 | 38% | 15 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 25 of 54 | 46% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 40 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)
Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.
Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.
Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.
The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 7 of 24 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 27 of 56 | 48% | 3 of 25 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 18 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 7 of 24 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 27 of 56 | 48% | 3 of 25 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 18 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.
The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.
The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 111 | 55% | 90 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 67 of 147 | 45% | 70 of 151 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 48 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 33 of 73 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 111 | 55% | 43 of 86 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 53 of 101 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 67 of 147 | 45% | 49 of 118 | 13 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 52 of 126 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 31 | 64% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 12 of 29 | 41% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 35 | 51% | 14 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 30 of 51 | 58% | 23 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 58 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 61 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.
Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.
Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.
Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.
Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.
Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.
Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.
Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.
Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.
The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.
Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 84 of 148 | 56% | 108 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Andre Fili | 1 | 58 of 151 | 38% | 76 of 179 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 34 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Andre Fili | 1 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:55 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 24 of 68 | 35% | 24 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 84 of 148 | 56% | 38 of 90 | 10 of 18 | 36 of 40 | 71 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 |
| Andre Fili | 58 of 151 | 38% | 45 of 134 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 53 of 144 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 37 of 69 | 53% | 21 of 48 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 14 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 |
| Andre Fili | 17 of 49 | 34% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 10 of 15 | 66% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Fili | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 37 of 64 | 57% | 13 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 19 of 21 | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Fili | 24 of 68 | 35% | 16 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.
Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.
Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.
Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.
James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.
The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.
Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 59 of 142 | 41% | 67 of 151 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 81 of 170 | 47% | 151 of 246 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 41 of 86 | 47% | 46 of 91 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 74 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 59 of 142 | 41% | 48 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 59 of 141 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 81 of 170 | 47% | 38 of 113 | 17 of 27 | 26 of 30 | 80 of 168 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 19 of 56 | 33% | 16 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 30 of 61 | 49% | 9 of 37 | 9 of 10 | 12 of 14 | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 32 of 68 | 47% | 25 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 41 of 86 | 47% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 40 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 10 of 23 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.
Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.
Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.
Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.
This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.
Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.
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