UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Jan 28, 2017 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 41
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 6' 1"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jorge Masvidal
4.05 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.38 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Donald Cerrone
4.41 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.48 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.16 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Jorge Masvidal - Fight History
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 42 of 99 42% 72 of 135 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:41
Jorge Masvidal 0 39 of 91 42% 77 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 13 of 39 33% 15 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Jorge Masvidal 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 16 43% 27 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:05
Jorge Masvidal 0 5 of 11 45% 32 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 44 50% 30 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Jorge Masvidal 0 19 of 42 45% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 42 of 99 42% 34 of 84 3 of 7 5 of 8 37 of 90 0 of 0 5 of 9
Jorge Masvidal 39 of 91 42% 14 of 61 8 of 11 17 of 19 38 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 13 of 39 33% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 15 of 38 39% 5 of 26 2 of 2 8 of 10 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 7 of 16 43% 6 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 22 of 44 50% 21 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1 20 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 19 of 42 45% 8 of 29 3 of 5 8 of 8 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)

Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.

"I do think Gilbert Burns wins this fight but I am not going anywhere near these minus 450 odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.

not laying minus 500
"give me Burns I'll say Burns by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I'm going to be picking Burns but... the fact that we're in Florida... it's not making me feel like oh lock burns up in parlays"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Connor says the line is wide and getting wider, and it doesn't feel inaccurate.
"Gilbert Burns is going to run him over."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.

submission
"Gilbert's Gonna Get Us done first take down submission easy peasy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.

"the line in this fight makes no sense to me at all massive at all even though he's on three in his last three fights should not be a plus 380 Underdog to Gilbert Burns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks considered
"I do gotta end up taking Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.

first round submission, arm triangle
"I think Gilbert Burns is gonna drop masvidal in round one and sub him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Zane says the line is reasonable and not surprising.
"I would have picked an earlier version of Jorge against an earlier version of Gilbert. But now it just seems like there's a gulf."
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 94 of 201 46% 218 of 338 6 of 15 40% 1 1 16:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 67 of 140 47% 90 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 7 of 18 38% 29 of 45 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:32
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 17 35% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 20 of 58 34% 25 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:21
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 63 49% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Colby Covington 0 21 of 40 52% 62 of 86 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:34
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 12 66% 19 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Colby Covington 0 33 of 66 50% 37 of 70 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:13
Jorge Masvidal 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 13 of 19 68% 65 of 74 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:34
Jorge Masvidal 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 94 of 201 46% 84 of 190 9 of 10 1 of 1 63 of 160 6 of 8 25 of 33
Jorge Masvidal 67 of 140 47% 38 of 94 10 of 19 19 of 27 55 of 125 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 17 35% 2 of 8 0 of 3 4 of 6 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 20 of 58 34% 16 of 53 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 63 49% 18 of 42 5 of 8 8 of 13 24 of 54 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 21 of 40 52% 18 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 19
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 12 66% 5 of 7 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 33 of 66 50% 32 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0 31 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 46 45% 12 of 35 5 of 6 4 of 5 19 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 14
Jorge Masvidal 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Angelo picks Colby Covington due to his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes that Covington's non-stop takedowns and pressure will be a problem for Masvidal, similar to the first Usman fight. He mentions that Masvidal has success on the feet but Covington cuts distance quickly. He also references a source from American Top Team saying Covington dominated Masvidal in training but Masvidal would touch him up on the feet.

"the pick here is definitely kobe because i think his non-stop wrestling will be a problem for george"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Big Brady picks Colby Covington to win by decision, citing Covington's relentless wrestling pace and volume striking. He notes that Covington will likely take Masvidal down repeatedly, especially early, and that Masvidal's path to victory is only by knockout. Brady believes Covington's cardio and pressure will be too much for the 37-year-old Masvidal, who has slowed down. He mentions that Covington has successfully implemented this game plan against other top welterweights like Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos.

Covington by decision
"I like colby to win here probably by i'll say decision for colby covington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Cody sees Colby as an elite welterweight who pushed Usman to the limit, with superior pace, wrestling, and durability. He believes Colby's chain wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Masvidal, who has poor takedown defense and fades late. Cody has already parlayed Colby with Kevin Holland and also bet Colby by round 5 at +3000, expecting a late finish or decision.

Parlayed with Kevin Holland; Colby Covington round 5 at +3000
"i think he pays off this price in fold i've already parlayed him up with uh with kevin holland a little bit further down the card um and i have colby covington round five at plus three thousand"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Daniel Levi picks Colby Covington to win by unanimous decision. He emphasizes Covington's relentless pace and takedown attempts, noting that even if the first few takedowns are stuffed, Covington will keep shooting and eventually grind down Masvidal. He acknowledges Masvidal's underrated takedown defense and dangerous striking, especially early, but believes Covington's pressure and cardio will be decisive in the later rounds. He also mentions that Covington's recent war with Usman might be a concern but still favors him.

"i'm still going with colby to come out here push the pace on him might be kind of close early but down the stretch i do see just the relentless pace the takedown attempt that's her takedown attempt like like …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Colby Covington is neck and neck with Kamaru Usman, one of the best in the world, and his wrestling threat will force Masvidal to think too much. Covington's cardio, improved striking, and volume will overwhelm Masvidal over five rounds. Masvidal is the better technical striker but lacks the wrestling and cardio to keep up. Covington via decision is the likely outcome.

Covington via decision at -105
"i like covington here the spot that i'm looking to take advantage of though i know jorge got finished in his last fight i think that was just kamar usman and his striking skills uh and power everything just culminating …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Paul argues that Colby is a premier talent while Masvidal is a journeyman with 15 losses and poor takedown defense. He highlights Colby's wrestling pressure and cardio as decisive, noting Masvidal's wins are early finishes and his losses come when opponents survive the first two rounds. Paul plans to bet Colby live if Masvidal is competitive early, expecting Colby to take over in rounds 3-5.

Live betting strategy: bet Colby after round 2 if Masvidal is competitive early
"i am definitely team colby covington on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Colby Covington

The MMA Guru picks Colby Covington over Jorge Masvidal, despite acknowledging Masvidal's KO power and the odds being too wide. He praises Covington's chin, referencing his ability to take clean shots from Kamaru Usman. He predicts Covington will use cage pressure, takedowns, and grinding to wear Masvidal down, eventually securing a rear-naked choke in the fourth round. He notes Masvidal's age, inactivity, and potential rib injury as factors, and believes Covington's active style and improved striking will be key.

method: submission (rear-naked choke), round: 4, odds comment: 'odds are so wrong... should be two to one favorite'
"i'm going to call a colby covington re-naked choke finish in round four"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
KO (punch) R2 1:02 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 1 21 of 40 52% 32 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 52 59% 56 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Jorge Masvidal 0 23 of 42 54% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 21 of 40 52% 15 of 32 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 10
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 52 59% 13 of 33 3 of 4 15 of 15 27 of 47 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 14 of 30 46% 8 of 22 5 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 23 of 42 54% 12 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 10 80% 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.

"i think it's a good pick we got some nice insight there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.

Usman by decision; parlay piece
"give me kamara usman for the win... solid parlay piece"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think that the first the way that the first fight plays out is the same thing here he just wears on georgie up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with uzmana and still"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.

Usman by decision -130
"i'm going kamar oozman by decision we're getting minus 130 on that line right now i think that's a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think it's usman oozman by decision all over again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.

"i'm gonna go with kamaru osman of course"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 94 of 151 62% 263 of 341 5 of 16 31% 0 0 16:38
Jorge Masvidal 0 66 of 125 52% 88 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 18 of 40 45% 25 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Jorge Masvidal 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 32 84% 94 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:40
Jorge Masvidal 0 20 of 32 62% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 27 51% 46 of 61 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 31 74% 75 of 90 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:37
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 21 57% 23 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:31
Jorge Masvidal 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 94 of 151 62% 43 of 96 49 of 53 2 of 2 42 of 86 39 of 49 13 of 16
Jorge Masvidal 66 of 125 52% 23 of 69 29 of 39 14 of 17 38 of 90 27 of 34 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 7 of 8 2 of 2
Jorge Masvidal 24 of 43 55% 13 of 28 5 of 9 6 of 6 16 of 32 7 of 10 1 of 1
2 Kamaru Usman 27 of 32 84% 10 of 15 17 of 17 0 of 0 11 of 14 16 of 18 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 20 of 32 62% 5 of 16 11 of 12 4 of 4 10 of 21 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 27 51% 10 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 14 2 of 5 6 of 8
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 19 63% 2 of 8 6 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 31 74% 9 of 15 13 of 15 1 of 1 9 of 14 14 of 17 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 15 40% 2 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 12 of 21 57% 7 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 1 5 of 6
Jorge Masvidal 4 of 16 25% 1 of 8 3 of 5 0 of 3 2 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.

"i see usman uh winning a decision here pretty comfortably ... i think it should be a little bit wider than that honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.

predicts decision win for Usman
"I'll lean with Guzman as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.

lock of the night play, bet at -267
"c'mon lucemon is the better fighter he is gonna win this fight and I've never been so convicted"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.

Mentions Masvidal has a 25% chance of winning, says 'mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled'
"mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled that's my prediction"
WIN vs Nate Diaz
TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 2 112 of 179 62% 114 of 184 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:56
Nate Diaz 0 43 of 104 41% 125 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 35 of 54 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Nate Diaz 0 13 of 27 48% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Jorge Masvidal 1 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Nate Diaz 0 11 of 31 35% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Jorge Masvidal 0 38 of 67 56% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Nate Diaz 0 19 of 46 41% 57 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 112 of 179 62% 78 of 136 27 of 35 7 of 8 52 of 92 20 of 25 40 of 62
Nate Diaz 43 of 104 41% 23 of 74 12 of 21 8 of 9 33 of 91 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 35 of 54 64% 21 of 34 12 of 18 2 of 2 10 of 15 7 of 9 18 of 30
Nate Diaz 13 of 27 48% 7 of 19 3 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 39 of 58 67% 29 of 47 7 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 32 11 of 13 10 of 13
Nate Diaz 11 of 31 35% 4 of 21 4 of 6 3 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jorge Masvidal 38 of 67 56% 28 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 24 of 45 2 of 3 12 of 19
Nate Diaz 19 of 46 41% 12 of 34 5 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 0
WIN vs Ben Askren
KO (flying knee) R1 0:05 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ben Askren 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ben Askren 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ben Askren 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ben Askren 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Darren Till
KO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 21 of 43 48% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Darren Till 1 35 of 72 48% 41 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Darren Till 0 19 of 39 48% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Darren Till 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 43 48% 17 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 35 of 72 48% 18 of 51 10 of 12 7 of 9 31 of 65 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 13 of 27 48% 10 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 19 of 39 48% 10 of 27 6 of 8 3 of 4 17 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 33 48% 8 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 5 14 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephen Thompson 1 70 of 156 44% 70 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 42 of 142 29% 42 of 142 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephen Thompson 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Stephen Thompson 1 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jorge Masvidal 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Stephen Thompson 0 39 of 86 45% 39 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jorge Masvidal 0 16 of 66 24% 16 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephen Thompson 70 of 156 44% 49 of 117 17 of 34 4 of 5 70 of 155 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 42 of 142 29% 9 of 79 5 of 13 28 of 50 39 of 137 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephen Thompson 13 of 27 48% 9 of 19 3 of 6 1 of 2 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 33 36% 0 of 13 2 of 5 10 of 15 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Stephen Thompson 18 of 43 41% 14 of 37 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 14 of 43 32% 3 of 23 0 of 3 11 of 17 12 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Stephen Thompson 39 of 86 45% 26 of 61 12 of 24 1 of 1 39 of 85 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 16 of 66 24% 6 of 43 3 of 5 7 of 18 15 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."
LOSS vs Alex Morono
TKO (punches) R1 4:40 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 17 of 35 48% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Donald Cerrone 0 35 of 84 41% 41 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 17 of 35 48% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Donald Cerrone 0 35 of 84 41% 41 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 17 of 35 48% 5 of 23 10 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 35 of 84 41% 28 of 74 5 of 7 2 of 3 30 of 73 5 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 17 of 35 48% 5 of 23 10 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 35 of 84 41% 28 of 74 5 of 7 2 of 3 30 of 73 5 of 11 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Big Brady believes Cerrone is the better fighter everywhere, despite being past his prime. He notes Cerrone has fought much better competition and should have an edge on the feet and on the mat. Brady thinks Cerrone can mix in takedowns against Morono's poor takedown defense (47%). He predicts a decision win for Cerrone but says the line at -185 is too high to bet. He acknowledges Morono's high volume but thinks Cerrone's level of competition gives him the edge.

Cerrone by decision
"I'm gonna take cerrone yeah definitely not betting it especially where the line's at now i'm gonna take him to win by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, stating there are levels to this and Morono is not a top 25 guy. He highlights Cerrone's superior striking, grappling, and cardio, and notes Morono's inability to get up from bottom. He expects Cerrone to outclass Morono, possibly via blast double or high kick, and predicts a decision win. He mentions Cerrone's durability in the Nico Price fight as a positive sign.

"i still think there's levels to this [ __ ] man and cerrone's on a completely different level striking grappling cardio"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The host is confident in Donald Cerrone, believing he has advantages in striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He expects Cerrone to piece up Morono and win a decision, noting Morono's cardio issues and short notice. He likes Cerrone by decision prop.

Cerrone by decision +145
"i think that cerrone can have his way in striking or the grappling but i don't know that it finished necessarily materializes"
LOSS vs Niko Price
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 0 113 of 230 49% 113 of 230 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
Niko Price 0 150 of 312 48% 167 of 330 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 55 of 115 47% 63 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 89 42% 38 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 57 of 112 50% 57 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:50
Niko Price 0 38 of 85 44% 47 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 113 of 230 49% 69 of 181 38 of 43 6 of 6 101 of 216 11 of 13 1 of 1
Niko Price 150 of 312 48% 80 of 225 30 of 42 40 of 45 129 of 284 18 of 24 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 37 of 66 56% 20 of 49 13 of 13 4 of 4 27 of 54 10 of 12 0 of 0
Niko Price 55 of 115 47% 40 of 96 11 of 13 4 of 6 38 of 93 17 of 22 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 38 of 89 42% 22 of 69 15 of 19 1 of 1 38 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 57 of 112 50% 21 of 68 17 of 23 19 of 21 56 of 111 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 38 of 75 50% 27 of 63 10 of 11 1 of 1 36 of 73 1 of 1 1 of 1
Niko Price 38 of 85 44% 19 of 61 2 of 6 17 of 18 35 of 80 0 of 1 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price, citing Cerrone's decline and recent knockout losses to top competition. He notes Price is faster and a slow starter, while Cerrone has taken a lot of damage. He expects Price to get a first-round knockout, though he admits Cerrone is better on paper everywhere except durability.

Price by knockout
"give me nico price to get a knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

The host believes Niko Price's power and explosiveness will be too much for Donald Cerrone, who is on a losing streak and has shown durability issues. He notes Price's ability to finish from any position and Cerrone's tendency to get stopped early. He predicts a first-round KO for Price, and likes the under 1.5 rounds at -105.

Niko Price wins by KO in round 1 +275; under 1.5 rounds -105; Niko Price inside distance -115
"I'm gonna take price to win this and i truly think he gets it done in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price over Donald Cerrone, citing Price's size, power, and ability to start fast. He notes that Cerrone has struggled against fighters who come out aggressively, and that Price was competitive against Vicente Luque. He predicts a KO win for Price.

KO win
"I'm gonna go with nico price getting a ko win."
LOSS vs Anthony Pettis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Pettis 0 63 of 113 55% 81 of 133 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 62 of 148 41% 62 of 148 2 of 8 25% 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Pettis 0 15 of 27 55% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
2 Anthony Pettis 0 21 of 38 55% 33 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
3 Anthony Pettis 0 27 of 48 56% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 25 of 65 38% 25 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Pettis 63 of 113 55% 44 of 84 10 of 18 9 of 11 60 of 110 1 of 1 2 of 2
Donald Cerrone 62 of 148 41% 31 of 112 18 of 22 13 of 14 59 of 143 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Pettis 15 of 27 55% 7 of 13 4 of 8 4 of 6 13 of 25 0 of 0 2 of 2
Donald Cerrone 17 of 31 54% 10 of 23 5 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Anthony Pettis 21 of 38 55% 13 of 28 4 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 20 of 52 38% 8 of 38 5 of 7 7 of 7 19 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Anthony Pettis 27 of 48 56% 24 of 43 2 of 4 1 of 1 26 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 25 of 65 38% 13 of 51 8 of 10 4 of 4 24 of 62 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Big Brady picks Donald Cerrone, but with low confidence. He notes both fighters are past their prime and have shown signs of quitting. He believes Cerrone has a step down in competition and more heart, but worries about his durability. He predicts a decision win for Cerrone.

Cerrone by decision
"I'm going to go with Cerrone here. Um both these fighters are like out of their prime for sure. ... I think Cerrone has a little bit more left in the tank than Pettis."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, arguing that Pettis is not the same fighter as in 2013 and lacks sustainability. He believes if Cerrone avoids an early fight-ending blow, he will take over with takedowns and pressure. Levi notes that Cerrone is a slow starter but should dominate if he gets to the second round, and that Pettis tends to quit when pressured.

Cerrone by decision or finish
"I think if he avoids taking a fight ending blow in the early going he will eventually begin to take over the fight mix in takedowns along the way and either edge of decision or finish Pettis along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Pettis

Matt picks Pettis but is not confident, citing both fighters' mental fragility and recent losses. He thinks Pettis can establish pressure and leg kicks early to get a finish, but he doesn't trust either guy. He calls the fight a pass for betting and suggests Cerrone as the value side if forced to bet.

Pettis by second-round TKO, best bet is Cerrone for value
"I am gonna pick Paris I can't believe I'm doing it I'm picking Pettis to win but in terms of betting I'm not trusting him"
LOSS vs Conor McGregor
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 0:40 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel picks Conor McGregor to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He notes that McGregor's left hand is a huge factor and that Cerrone has historically folded under big lights. However, he questions McGregor's motivation and fatigue issues, but believes this is a tune-up fight for McGregor.

first round knockout
"I think McGregor is gonna come in fresh... I think he gets the win by knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round KO, citing McGregor's range, speed, in-and-out movement, and left hand as key advantages. He believes Cerrone will struggle to deal with these attributes and that McGregor will set up a trap and land a clean left hand. However, he notes that if Cerrone's odds reach +300, he might place a small bet on Cerrone due to value, but his official prediction remains McGregor by first-round KO.

If Cerrone hits +300, might take a bet on Cerrone; under 1.5 rounds at +105 considered; McGregor by KO at -210 considered too steep; official pick is McGregor by first-round KO.
"my official pick'em my prediction is gonna be cornered by first round KO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host strongly favors Conor McGregor, citing his first-round focus and accuracy against Donald Cerrone's lack of head movement and slow starts. He notes Cerrone's recent KO loss to Justin Gaethje and the short turnaround (4 months), which raises chin concerns. He believes McGregor's takedown defense is underrated and that Cerrone's wrestling won't be effective. He predicts a first-round KO by McGregor.

first round KO
"I think Conor McGregor gets it done in the first round by KO viciously viciously"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
TKO (punches) R1 4:18 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 1 40 of 61 65% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 1 40 of 61 65% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 17 of 52 32% 12 of 45 4 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 40 of 61 65% 27 of 44 0 of 2 13 of 15 36 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 17 of 52 32% 12 of 45 4 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 40 of 61 65% 27 of 44 0 of 2 13 of 15 36 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
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Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje

Round 1
The main event is here, between two men that have combined for 24 post-fight bonuses, as Cerrone (36-12, 1 NC; 23-9 UFC) tussles with Gaethje (20-2, 3-2 UFC) at lightweight. The referee for this headliner that virtually guarantees action is Jerin Valel. The two touch gloves and we are underway. Cerrone starts with a push kick to the body, and Gaethje replies with a few sharp leg kicks. Gaethje whiffs on another leg kick, and Cerrone brings his knee up to check them. Gaethje presses forward and swings wildly, but nothing connects of significance. Gaethje ducks down to throw a big right hand and misses, but he does crack him with another few leg kicks for good measure. "The Highlight" tags Cerrone coming on, and backs way while launching a few more leg kicks, although "Cowboy" is starting to check them. Gaethje swings with all he has and "Cowboy" barely evades it, and tying up Gaethje tags Cerrone again. Cerrone leaps forward with a left hand, and then throws his own leg kick. A three-punch combination from "Cowboy" lands, and Gaethje cracks him with a counter left hand. As Gaethje swings, Cerrone responds with a body kick. The two men crash together, and Gaethje gets the better of this exchange. "Cowboy" ducks down and Gaethje times an uppercut, and then throws another leg kick that appears to stymie the movement of Cerrone slightly.
Gaethje blasts "Cowboy" right a right hand when coming in, halting the Colorado native in his tracks and dropping him to a knee. Gaethje cracks him with a few more short shots, until "Cowboy" falls to the ground
. "The Highlight" looks to Valel for a stoppage, but he does not get it so he clubs Cerrone with a few more punches until Valel calls the fight. Cerrone pops back up and protests the stoppage, but the fight is over. On the post-fight interview, the two celebrate and Cerrone is all smiles as he congratulates the victor.

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Donald Cerrone R1 4:18 via TKO (Punches)
LOSS vs Tony Ferguson
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Ferguson 0 104 of 200 52% 104 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 68 of 185 36% 68 of 185 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Ferguson 0 52 of 104 50% 52 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 95 40% 38 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tony Ferguson 0 52 of 96 54% 52 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 30 of 90 33% 30 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Ferguson 104 of 200 52% 65 of 144 25 of 37 14 of 19 103 of 198 1 of 2 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 68 of 185 36% 43 of 152 15 of 23 10 of 10 68 of 184 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Ferguson 52 of 104 50% 31 of 76 14 of 20 7 of 8 51 of 102 1 of 2 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 38 of 95 40% 28 of 82 6 of 9 4 of 4 38 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Ferguson 52 of 96 54% 34 of 68 11 of 17 7 of 11 52 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 30 of 90 33% 15 of 70 9 of 14 6 of 6 30 of 89 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Al Iaquinta
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 0 90 of 223 40% 90 of 223 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 2 138 of 361 38% 140 of 363 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 19 of 58 32% 19 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 21 of 68 30% 21 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Donald Cerrone 0 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 1 28 of 78 35% 29 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
4 Donald Cerrone 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 1 26 of 72 36% 27 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
5 Donald Cerrone 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 43 of 98 43% 43 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 90 of 223 40% 49 of 165 23 of 38 18 of 20 90 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 138 of 361 38% 87 of 302 17 of 25 34 of 34 129 of 344 3 of 3 6 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 19 of 58 32% 10 of 42 6 of 12 3 of 4 19 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 3 of 5 5 of 5 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 24 of 59 40% 11 of 41 5 of 9 8 of 9 24 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 21 of 68 30% 11 of 57 3 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 18 of 39 46% 9 of 29 5 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 28 of 78 35% 15 of 64 6 of 7 7 of 7 25 of 69 0 of 0 3 of 9
4 Donald Cerrone 9 of 20 45% 6 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 26 of 72 36% 17 of 61 3 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 65 3 of 3 2 of 4
5 Donald Cerrone 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 3 20 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 43 of 98 43% 32 of 85 2 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 97 0 of 0 1 of 1